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1、SAUDI ARABIASBUDGET REPORT2025DECEMBER 2024CONTENTSThe Key Takeaways IntroductionSummary Review of 2024Fiscal PerformanceEconomic Performance2025 Budget at a Glance2025 Macro Assumptions&Outlook2025 Fiscal OutlookLooking aheadBudget dashboardReferences0304050507101214192122STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARAB

2、IAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|02STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|03The rising public spending and widening fiscal deficit over the medium term,estimated at 2%of GDP for 2025,is manageable and reflects Saudi Arabias tolerance for a moderate debt burden to deliver on Vision 2030 targetsTotal

3、expenditure is projected at SAR 1,285 billion,with over half allocated to military,health,and education sectors.The mission to diversify the states income streams away from oil remains,with non-fossil income having contributed 38%of total revenues in 2024 and VAT and income taxes forecast to grow by

4、 a rate 2-to-3%in 2025.Among the budgets high priorities is tourism,with the introduction of VAT deductions for tourists seeking to reinforce the National Tourism Strategy and increase domestic and international tourist influx to 127 million and tourism spending to around SAR 347 billion.The budget

5、allocation for wages is still growing at a faster pace than for capital expenditure and currently represents over 50%of the total 2025 budget.Despite the rise in public spending and private sector consumption,inflation is forecast to remain at a stable 1.9%in 2025,among the lowest globally.Saudis st

6、rong fiscal position is echoed by a buffer of reserves,a sustainable public debt level,and a reassuring credit profile,which should provide affirmations for investor confidence.THE KEY TAKEAWAYSNational budgets are fundamental governance tools that determine how economies will collect and spend mone

7、y.Their successful design and execution hinges on balancing healthy public financial management practices and ambitious national goals for markets and people.In Saudi Arabia,the government passed the 2025 national budget on November 26,2024,making it the ninth budget plan that upholds Vision 2030 pr

8、inciples.This report reviews Saudis economic and fiscal performance for 2024 and presents a breakdown of the 2025 national budget.Below are the key takeaways.STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|04For economies around the world,a national budget is the most fundamental governance tool th

9、at determines how governments will spend and collect money.Complying with healthy public financial management practices and allocating resources according to national goals are thus paramount for producing a well-designed,purposeful budget.In this vein,and as part of Strategic Gears research on publ

10、ic finance and GCC economies,this report reviews Saudi Arabias economic and fiscal performance in 2024 and presents a breakdown of the 2025 national budget.In short,the 2025 budget for Saudi Arabia maintains the focus on Vision 2030 targets while balancing fiscal sustainability and discipline,invest

11、ment atraction,and stimulating economic activity.This report is structured into three themes.First,the report synthesizes the budgeted and actualized numbers from the 2024 fiscal year.Second,it provides a reading of the expenditure and revenue structures of the 2025 budget,its macroeconomic assumpti

12、ons,and economic forecasts.And third,the report concludes with an assessment of the strengths,weak points,and opportunities of Saudis 2025 public finances.On November 26,2024,Saudi Arabia passed the national budget for the incoming 2025 fiscal year.This marks the ninth budget statement to be issued

13、afer the launch of Vision 2030 and sets the tone for the next half of this transformative decade.In line with previous formats,the 2025 budget estimates the closing of accounts for 2024 and outlines fiscal projections and macroeconomic objectives for 2025.INTRODUCTIONSTRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 20

14、25 BUDGET REPORT|05SUMMARY REVIEW OF 2024FISCAL PERFORMANCE Saudi Arabias fiscal balance shifed to a surplus in 2022 afer eight consecutive years of deficits.However,the budget returned to a back-to-back deficit trend in 2023 and 2024.The increase in Saudi Arabias expenditures in 2024 was driven by

15、a 6.5%rise in capital expenditures,reaching SAR 198 billion,and a 3.7%increase in operational expenditures,which amounted to SAR 1,148 billion.Within operational expenses,subsidies experienced the most significant growth,surging by 62%from SAR 21 billion in 2023 to SAR 34 billion in 2024.Total estim

16、ated expenditure for 2024 represents one of the highest levels in recent years,exceeding the 20172023 average of SAR 1,091 billion.Moreover,public spending has grown by 45%between 2019 and 2024,rising from SAR 930 billion to SAR 1,345 billion,reflecting the Kingdoms growing financing of large-scale

17、national projects as part of its broader economic vision.Although revenues increased in 2024,it was modest compared to the rise in spending.Tax revenues rose by 3%year-on-year and reached SAR 366 billion in 2024.Within tax revenues,taxes on goods and services exhibited the highest growth,increasing

18、by 7%or SAR 280 billion.STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|06Fiscal Year 2024:Benchmarking the actualized figuresExpenditureSAR Billion7.5%higherthan budgeted4%increasecompared to2023 fiscal year4.9%higherthan budgeted1.4%increasecompared to2023 fiscal year1,345RevenueSAR Billion1,230D

19、eficitSAR Billion115STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|07Growth estimates for 2024 now currently stand at at 0.8%,well below the Ministry of Finances projection of 4.4%ahead of the 2024 fiscal year and the 8.7%growth achieved in 2022,but an improvement from the-0.8%contraction in 2023.

20、And while the economy remains under pressure,due to a 6.8%contraction in oil activities through Q3 of this year,non-oil activities are providing some buffers,following a 4.2%growth during the same period.2024 Real GDP growthis estimated at 0.8%compared to:4.4%in the 2024 budget-0.8%in 2023ECONOMIC P

21、ERFORMANCEGrowthSources Saudi Ministry of Finance and GASTATFigure 1:Saudi 2024 growth is rebounding from the decline experienced in 2023.Real GDP Growth in Saudi Arabia(%)2018201920202021201720162012201320142015201120102023202420222.8%0.8%-4.3%3.9%-0.1%2.4%5.4%2.9%4.0%4.7%4.8%-0.8%0.8%8.7%12.0%2.0%

22、-8.0%11.0%STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|08 The Kingdoms 2024 growth rate also represented one of the slowest among G-20 members and slowest among BRICS countries.Sources:Saudi Ministry of Finance and IMF.Figure 2:Saudi 2024 growth was among the lowest in G20.%0.3%2.5%1.5%3.6%0.8%0

23、.7%7.0%5.0%0.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%4.8%1.3%3.0%1.2%3.5-%2.8%1.1%3.0JapanRep KoreaMexicoRussiaSaudi ArabiaItalyIndiaIndonesiaGermanyEUFranceUKChinaCanadaBrazilAustraliaArgentinaUSASouth AfricaTurkeySources:Saudi Ministry of Finance and IMF.Figure 3:Saudi 2024 growth is among the lowest in BRICS.%4.8China%1.1

24、South Africa%0.8Saudi Arabia%3.7Iran%6.1Ethiopia%7.0India%3.6Russia%3.0Brazil%2.7Egypt%3.5-Argentina%4.0United Arab EmiratesReal GDP Growth in BRICS Countries(%)Real GDP Growth in G20 Countries(%)STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|09InflationSaudi Arabias inflation is projected to reac

25、h 1.7%by the end of 2024,even slightly below what the budget had forecast,reflecting the Kingdoms strong efforts to stabilize prices.Despite an 8.9%rise in housing,utilities,and fuel prices as of August 2024,transportation costs fell by 3.4%during the same period and overall inflation remained stabl

26、e at 1.7%year-on-year in September 20241Saudi Arabias inflation rate remains among the lowest globally,driven by the Kingdoms economic activity and growth in key sectors such as tourism and hospitality.2 This has contributed to an increase in private consumption,helping to maintain relatively modera

27、te inflation rates compared to both advanced economies and other regional groups2024 Inflation is expectedto have averaged 1.7%compared to:2.2%in the 2024 budget2.3%in 2023 Emerging and Developing EuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanMiddle East and Central AsiaSub-Saharan Africa United StatesUKChin

28、aIndiaSaudi ArabiaREGIONAL GROUPCOUNTRIES%4.1%7.3%0.2%5.4%2.32023%3%2.6%0.4%4.4%1.72024*%1.9%2.1%1.7%4.1%1.92025*%17.1%14.8%15.6%17.62023%16.9%16.8%14.6%18.12024*%11.1%8.5%10.7%12.32025*Sources:Saudi Ministry of Finance and IMF.Figure 4:Inflation rate by country and region.STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARAB

29、IAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|10Public spending in 2025 is projected at SAR 1,285 billion,slightly higher than budget estimates for 2024.Capital expenditure will see a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%,while operational expenditure will witness an increase of 3.6%.A sectoral breakdown of the budget shows a pat

30、ern in expenditure that is consistent with the previous year of 2024:Three sectors,namely Military,Health and social development,and Education were allocated over 50%of total budget expenditures.In 2025,government revenues are forecast at SAR 1,184 billion,1%higher than budget estimates in 2024.The

31、deficit is forecast in 2025 at SAR 101 billion(-2.30%of GDP),lower than the SAR 115 billion deficit estimated for 2024(-2.80%of GDP),and higher than the SAR 81 billion deficit in 2023(-2%of GDP).The government intends to proactively purchase a portion of its outstanding debt maturing in FY 2024,FY 2

32、025,and FY 2026.By diversifying its debt instrumentssuch as bonds,sukuk,and loansit aims to mitigate refinancing risks and manage future debt maturities.2025 BUDGET AT A GLANCEExpenditureSAR Billion1,285RevenueSAR Billion1,184DeficitSAR Billion101STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|11So

33、urce:Saudi Ministry of Finance.Figure 5:2025 fiscal balance forecasts a deficit.201820192020202120172016201420152023202420222026f2027f2025f2000150010005000-500Budget Balance,Revenues&Expenditures(SAR B)RevenueDeficit/SurplusExpenditureSTRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|12GDP GrowthThe

34、2025 budget projects a growth rate of 4.6%,driven primarily by non-oil activities.This growth will be supported by expanding private sector contributions,developing the labor market,and improving the business environment to atract investment,in alignment with economic diversification goals of Vision

35、 2030.Saudi Arabias 2025 budgetassumes growth of 4.6%compared to:IMF4.6%World Bank34.9%22025 MACROASSUMPTIONS&OUTLOOKInflationSaudis budget forecasts inflation level in 2025 to be in line with 2024s and the lowest among G20 economies,reflecting the kingdoms efforts to contain inflation and maintain

36、social protection programs.The 2025 budgetforecasts inflation at 1.9%compared to:IMF 20251.9%World Bank 20252.2%Ministry of Finances 20241.7%STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|13Based on figures retrieved from Statista,the oil price is at$72.6 per barrel,which is below the IMFs breakev

37、en oil price estimate for Saudi Arabia for both 2024 and 2025.3 The IMF estimates an average oil price of$73.68 per barrel in 2025.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Ukraine-Russia conflict have influenced forecasts,with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent crude to decline from an average o

38、f$80 per barrel in 2024 to$76 in 2025,despite previous peaks of$104 in 2024.Fitch expects prices to drop to$80 or lower,while the EIA projects an average of$77.59 per barrel in 2025.4 5 Oil Price&Production According to October 2024 IMFs October Regional Economic Outlook,Saudi Arabias breakeven oil

39、price is estimated at:90.9 USDper barrel in 202598.4 USDper barrel in 2024The IMF also estimates Saudi Arabias oil production to average:9.6 million barrels per day in 20259 million barrelsper day in 2024STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|14RevenuesThe Saudi budget does not typically s

40、pecify the exact breakdown of oil and non-oil revenue forecasts for the year;however,it outlines certain non-oil revenue sources that will contribute to total revenues,with VAT income still contributing the most among other non-oil sources.These include:The annual contribution of non-oil income to t

41、otal government revenues has grown significantly over the years.Starting at just 7%in 2011,non-oil income accounted for 38%of total revenues in 2024,maintaining the same share as in 2023.Total revenue is forecast at SAR 1,184 billion in 2025,3.7%lower than the actual revenue yield in 2024 but 1%high

42、er than its projections.Taxes on Goods and Services projected at 24%of total revenue and 3.5%higher than in 2024.Taxes on Income,Profits,and Capital Gains projected at 3%of total revenue and 3.3%higher than in 2024.Taxes on International Trade and Transactions projected at 2%of total revenue and 4.5

43、%higher than in 2024.2025 FISCAL OUTLOOK Source:Saudi Ministry of Finance.Figure 6:Non-oil share of revenues is stabilized in 2024.2018201920202021201720162012201320142015201120232024*2022%32%36%47%42%37%36%8%10%12%27%7%38%38%32%68%64%53%58%63%64%92%90%88%73%93%62%62%68OilNon-OilSTRATEGIC GEARS|SAUD

44、I ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|15ExpendituresA sectoral breakdown of the 2025 budget shows a consistent expenditure patern with previous years,with over 50%allocated to three sectors,namely Military,Healthcare,and Education.The military sector accounts for the largest share,representing 21%of the tota

45、l budget and approximately 6%of the projected GDP for 2025.Source:Saudi Ministry of Finance.Figure 7:Wage bill share is growing at a faster pace than the CAPEX share.20184071884842019CAPEX&OPEX Share of Actual Fiscal Balance(in billions of SAR)3851695052020Non-Financial Assets(CAPEX)Wage Bill OPEXOt

46、her OPEX4261554952021426117496201730220842020235701865372024*5901985582022508143513In 2025,expenditures are forecast to be 4.4%lower than actualized spending in 2024 but 2.7%higher than the 2024 budgeted amounts.The annual share of capital expenditure in the total budget has declined over the last f

47、ive years,from 22.4%in 2017 to less than 15%in 2024 and is estimated at 14%in 2025(Figure 7).Some of the capital expenditure in the country is also financed outside the budget by the Public Investment Fund,who is a principal private sector investor,thus evading estimations at this stage.In 2023,capi

48、tal spending by the Fund hovered around SAR 150 billion.7Meanwhile,the wage bill,which constantly grows year-on-year,currently accounts for over 50%of the total budget.STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|16Budget Allocation by Sector(in billions of SAR)Public Administration Military Sec

49、urity and Regional AdministrationMunicipal ServicesEducationHealth and Social DevelopmentEconomic ResourcesInfrastructure and TransportationGeneral Items442721216520126087421922025 BUDGET432691128119521484382162024 BUDGET2.3%1.1%8%-19.7%3%21.5%3.5%10.5%-11.1%ANNUAL CHANGESource:Saudi Ministry of Fin

50、ance.Figure 8:Largest share of budget still goes to Military.STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|17Deficit and Public DebtThe SAR 101 billion deficit forecast by the government for 2025 is their baseline estimate as part of the budget statement.In the best-case scenario for the governme

51、nt,the fiscal balance could turn into a deficit of only SAR 50 billion,while the worst-case scenario could result in a SAR 160 billion deficit.To finance the deficit,the government is expected to continue issuing different types of debt.The public debt is projected at SAR 1,300 billion in 2025(aroun

52、d 30%of GDP),compared to SAR 1,199 billion in 2024(29%of GDP),still less than the governments debt ceiling of 50%.According to the governments medium-term projections,the public debt will increase to 32.3%of GDP in 2026 and to 33.3%of GDP in 2027.Given Saudi Arabias lower debt-to-GDP ratio,compared

53、to other G20 nations(Figure 9)and its sizable foreign reserves,borrowing rates are anticipated to remain low.The fiscal deficit is forecast at SAR 101 billion(-2.3%of GDP)in 2025,slightly lower than the actual deficit of SAR 115 billion(-2.8%)in 2024.Source:Saudi Ministry of Finance and IMF.Figure 9

54、:Saudi debt-to-GDP is one of the lowest among G20 countries.%58%20%77%30%26%54%249%139%115%62%83%41%94%103%92%50%79%124%83%104MexicoRussian FederationSouth AfricaSaudi ArabiaRepublic of TurkeyRepublic of KoreaJapanItalyFranceGermanyIndiaIndonesiaPeoples Republic of ChinaCanadaBrazilAustraliaArgentin

55、aUnited StatesEuropean UnionUnited KingdomDebt-to-GDP Ratio in G20 Countries(%)STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|18The outlook is also supported by the Kingdoms structural measures and reforms toward long-term fiscal sustainability,its strong government balance sheet and high credit r

56、ating profile(Table 1).MoodysS&PFitchAa3(Stable)8 A/A-19A+10RATING&OUTLOOKRATING AGENCYRatings Change ConsiderationsLAST ACTIONPOSITIVETable 1:Saudi boasts a strong credit rating profile.Moodys upgraded Saudi Arabias credit rating to Aa3 from A1”Date:22 November 2024Global Ratings revised its outloo

57、k on Saudi Arabia to positive from stable and affirmed its A/A-1 Date:13 September 2024Fitch Affirmed Saudi Arabias credit rating at A+;with Stable OutlookDate:5 February 2024Progress in Vision 2030 reforms and non-oil sector growth reduces reliance on oil revenues.Strong fiscal metrics,including lo

58、w debt and diversified revenue streams,support stability.NEGATIVEProlonged low oil prices could weaken fiscal balance and economic performance.Regional geopolitical tensions may undermine investor confidence and growth.Saudi Credit RatingsSTRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|19Saudi Arab

59、ias 2025 budget reflects its commitment to delivering on its Vision 2030 promises while balancing fiscal sustainability and discipline.The budget prioritizes expanding non-oil activities,enhancing the private sectors role,and fostering a favorable business environment.Despite a challenging fiscal la

60、ndscape in 2024,characterized by rising deficits and low growth,the Kingdom continues to demonstrate resilience through moderate inflation and a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio.Looking ahead,growth is projected to rebound to 4.6%in 2025,driven by non-oil sector expansion and increased private sector e

61、ngagement.Inflation is expected to remain among the lowest globally,supporting economic stability.However,the fiscal outlook is tempered by potential risks,including prolonged oil price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties.To face these challenges,the government is well equipped with policy buf

62、fers,a strong fiscal position,and investment-friendly reforms that promote economic activity.LOOKINGAHEADSTRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|20StrengthSome of the Kingdoms structural,fiscal and economic strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats are highlighted below:Saudi Arabia ma

63、intains one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios globally,at 29.9%in 2025,well below the 50%debt ceiling,providing fiscal flexibility.High ratings from agencies like Moodys(Aa3),S&P(A/A-1),and Fitch(A+)highlight confidence in the Kingdoms fiscal policies and economic outlook.Continued focus on non-oil s

64、ector growth,economic diversification,and structural reforms reduces reliance on oil revenues.WeaknessesRising fiscal deficits,projected at SAR 101 billion(-2.3%of GDP)in 2025,reflect higher spending on large-scale projects without corresponding revenue generation.Despite diversification efforts,oil

65、 revenues remain a significant contributor to the budget,making fiscal health vulnerable to price volatility.The Kingdoms GDP growth remains slower than G20 and BRICS averages,with economic performance impacted by a contraction in oil activities.OpportunitiesInitiatives like the National Investment

66、Strategy and special economic zones aim to increase FDI contributions to GDP and strengthen economic transformation.Expansions in transport,tourism,and industrial sectors provide avenues for sustainable job creation and long-term growth.Hosting major global events and enhancing sectors like sports a

67、nd entertainment elevate Saudi Arabias international standing.Reforms in the business environment and legal frameworks,along with Vision 2030 projects,position Saudi Arabia as a hub for foreign direct investment.Strategic investments in tourism,healthcare,education,and infrastructure create avenues

68、for sustainable job creation and economic transformation.ThreatsProlonged low oil prices,projected by the IMF and other organizations,may undermine fiscal balance and revenue forecasts.Regional tensions and global conflicts(e.g.,Middle East instability,Ukraine-Russia war)pose risks to investor confi

69、dence and economic stability.Potential global economic slowdowns or inflationary pressures could impact the Kingdoms trade,investment flows,and fiscal plans.STRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|21Total Revenue(SAR Billion)Oil RevenueNon-Oil RevenueTotal Expenditure Fiscal Balance(SAR Bil

70、lion)(%of GDP)Debt(SAR Billion)(%of GDP)1,2127554581,293-81%2.0-1,050%26.2ACTUAL 20231,172-1,251-79%1.9-1,103%25.9BUDGET 20241,184-1,285-101%2.3-1,300%29.9BUDGET 20251,2307584721,345-115%2.8-1,199%29.3ESTIMATES 2024BUDGETDASHBOARDSTRATEGIC GEARS|SAUDI ARABIAS 2025 BUDGET REPORT|22General Authority f

71、or Statistics(GASTAT),Consumer Price Index(CPI)August 2024,htps:/www.stats.gov.sa/en/news/552,accessed November 2024.Strategic Gears.November 2024.“The Hospitality Industry in Saudi Arabia:Status and Outlook.”World Bank,Middle East and North Africa Economic Update,htps:/www.worldbank.org/en/region/m

72、ena/publication/middle-east-and-north-africa-economic-update,accessed November 2024.Statista,Weekly Crude Oil Prices,htps:/ prices/#:text=On%20November%2025%2C%202024%2C%20the,exception%20of%20the%20OPEC%20basket,accessed November 2024.International Monetary Fund(IMF),World Economic Outlook:Statisti

73、cs Appendix,April 2024,htps:/www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/April/English/statsappendix.ashx,accessed November 2024.Paraskova,Tsvetana,Goldman Sachs Expects Brent Oil to Average$76 Per Barrel in 2025,OilP,htps:/ November 2024.Fitch Ratings,Fitch Ratings Keeps Oil&Gas Price Assumptio

74、ns Mostly Unchanged,Fitch Ratings,htps:/ November 2024.S&P Global,US EIA Lowers Oil Price Forecast by$2/b Despite Middle East Uncertainty,S&P Global Commodity Insights,htps:/ November 2024.Almozaini,M.October 2023.“The Economic and Energy Transformation in Saudi Arabia Exploring the Role of Strategi

75、c Investments.”King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia,Moodys Upgrades Saudi Arabias Credit Rating to Aa3 with Stable Outlook,htps:/www.mof.gov.sa/en/MediaCenter/news/Pages/23112024.aspx#:text=%E2%80%9CMoodys%20Ratings%E2%80%9D%20upgrades%20its%20credit,A

76、a3%E2%80%9D%20with%20%E2%80%9Cstable%E2%80%9D%20Outlook,accessed November 2024.S&P Global Ratings,S&P Global Ratings Affirms Saudi Arabias A/A-1 Sovereign Credit Ratings with Stable Outlook,htps:/ November 2024.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia,Fitch Affirms Saudi Arabias Credit Rating at A+with Stable Outlook,htps:/www.mof.gov.sa/en/MediaCenter/news/Pages/News_522024.aspx#:text=Fitch%20Affirmed%20Saudi%20Arabias%20credit,A%2B%3B%20with%20Stable%20Outlook,accessed November 2024.123456789101112REFERENCESWWW.STRATEGICGEARS.COM