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1、Photovoltaics ReportFraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems,ISEwith the support of PSE Projects GmbHFreiburg,29 July 2024www.ise.fraunhofer.deFraunhofer ISECONTENT Quick Facts Topics:PV Market Solar Cells/Modules/System Efficiency Life cycle assessment(LCA)and sustainability aspects Price Deve

2、lopment Abbreviations Further Studies and Analyses Acknowledgementspublic2Fraunhofer ISEIntroduction Preliminary Remarks The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information.However,facts and figures change rapidly,and the given information may soon be outdated again.This work has

3、 been carried out under the responsibility of Dr.Simon Philipps(Fraunhofer ISE)and Werner Warmuth(PSE Projects GmbH).Price indications are always to be understood as nominal,unless this is stated explicitly.For example,prices in the learning curves are inflation adjusted.The slides have been made as

4、 accurate as possible and we would be grateful to receive any comments or suggestions for improvement.Please send your feedback to both simon.philippsise.fraunhofer.de and warmuthpse-projects.de Please quote the information presented in these slides as follows:Fraunhofer ISE:Photovoltaics Report,upd

5、ated:30 July 2024public3Fraunhofer ISEQuick Factspublic4ParameterValueStatusReferenceDate of dataGermany/EU27/WorldwidePV installation market GW7.5/41.4/240 GW15.1/55.9/407 GWEnd of 2022End of 2023BNA/SPE/IEABNA/SPE/IEA03/2023;01/2023;04/202306/2024;12/2023;04/2024Cumulative installation GW67.6/207/

6、1,185 GW82.7/263/1,581 GWEnd of 2022End of 2023ISE/SPE/IEAISE/SPE/IEA03/2023;12/2023;04/202306/2024;12/2023;04/2024PV power generation TWh54.3net/209.1gross/1,321.9gross53.9net/246.8gross/1,641.6gross 20222023ISE/EI/EIISE/EI/EI06/2024;06/2024;06/202406/2024;06/2024;06/2024PV electricity share11.0%ne

7、t/7.4%gross/4.5%gross12.5%net/9.0%gross/5.5%gross20222023ISE/EI/EIISE/EI/EI06/2024;06/2024;06/202406/2024;06/2024;06/2024Worldwidec-Si share of production 97%2023ITRPV04/2024Record solar cell efficiency:III-V MJ(conc.)/mono-Si/CIGS/multi-Si/CdTe47.6/27.3/23.4/24.4/21.0%06/2024Green et al.06/2024Germ

8、anyPrice PV rooftop system(3 to 10 kWp)1,450 to 2,000/kWp2023BSW11/2023LCOE PV power plant3.1 to 5.7 ct/kWh2021ISELowest/Latest PV-Tender Price(average,volume-weighted value)4.33/5.17 ct/kWh02/2018;12/2023BNA12/2023Fraunhofer ISEExecutive SummaryPV Market:Global Photovoltaics is a fast-growing marke

9、t:The Compound Annual Growth Rate(CAGR)of cumulative PV installations was about 26%between year 2013 to 2023.In 2023 producers from Asia count for 94%of total PV module production.China(mainland)holds the lead with a share of about 86%.Europe and USA/CAN each contributed 2%.Wafer size increased and

10、by keeping the number of cells larger PV module sizes are realized allowing a power range beyond 700 W per module.In 2023,Europes contribution to the total cumulative PV installations amounted to 20%.In contrast,installations in China accounted for 43%(previous year 37%)and North America for 10%.Si-

11、wafer based PV technology accounted for about 97%of the total production in 2023.Mono-crystalline technology became the dominant technology in c-Si production while multi-crystalline technology is phasing out.Market shifts from subsidy driven to competitive pricing model(Power Purchase Agreements PP

12、A).In addition to PV systems on buildings(Rooftop or Building-Integrated)and ground-mounted systems,more and more systems are being installed on agricultural land(Agrivoltaics)and bodies of water(Floating PV).Furthermore,vehicle-integrated PV enters the market.public5Fraunhofer ISEExecutive SummaryP

13、V Market:Focus Germany In year 2023,Germany accounted for about 5.2%(82.7 GWp)of the cumulative PV capacity installed worldwide(1581 GWp)with about 3.7 million PV systems installed in Germany.In 2023 the newly installed capacity in Germany was about 15 GWp according to BNA;in 2022 it was 7.5 GWp.In

14、2023,PV accounts for 12.5%of net electricity generation and all renewable energies together for around 60%.In 2023 about 42 Mio.t CO2equivalent GHG emissions have been avoided due to 61 TWh PV electricity consumed in Germany.PV system performance has strongly improved.Before year 2000 the typical Pe

15、rformance Ratio was about 70%,while today it is in the range of 80%to 90%.Often residential and small commercial PV systems are installed with a battery storage and a charging station for electric mobility.Due to relative high electricity tariffs in Germany,self consumption is the prevailing busines

16、s model.Another trend is the increased installation of balcony solar systems.With the increasing generation capacity from solar and wind,the integration of volatile electricity into the grids is becoming ever more important.Grid expansion,load management,smart grids,bidirectional charging of vehicle

17、 batteries etc.must be promoted to avoid temporary switching off of renewable power plants(curtailment).public6Fraunhofer ISEExecutive SummarySolar Cell/Module Efficiencies The record lab cell efficiency*is 27.3%for mono-crystalline and 24.4%for multi-crystalline silicon wafer-based technology.The h

18、ighest lab efficiency in thin film technology is 23.4%for CIGS and 21.0%for CdTe solar cells.Record lab cell efficiency for Perovskite is 25.2%.In the last 10 years,the efficiency of commercial mono-crystalline wafer-based silicon modules increased from about 16%to 22%and more.At the same time,the e

19、fficiency of CdTe module increased from 9%to nearly 20%.In the laboratory,the best performing modules are based on mono-crystalline silicon with 24.9%efficiency.Record efficiencies demonstrate the potential for further efficiency increases at the production level.In the laboratory,high concentration

20、 multi-junction solar cells achieve an efficiency of up to 47.6%today.With concentrator technology,module efficiencies of up to 38.9%have been reached.public7*Only official lab record efficiencies with minimum cell area of 1 cm2 are listed.Latest reference:Solar Cell Efficiency Tables(Version 64),Pr

21、ogress in Photovoltaics:Research and Applications,06/2024 Fraunhofer ISEExecutive SummaryEnergy Payback Time Material usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the last 18 years from around 16 g/Wp(in 2004)to about 2.2 g/Wp in 2023 due to increased efficiencies,thinner wafers(150

22、m)using diamond wire saws,and larger ingots.The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the geographical location:PV systems manufactured in Europe and installed in Northern Europe require approximately 1.1 years to pay back the energy input,while PV systems installed in the South require

23、0.9 years to pay back the energy input,depending on the technology installed and the grid efficiency.A PV system located in Sicily using wafer-based Silicon modules has an Energy Payback Time of about one year.Assuming a 20-year lifetime,this type of system can produce twenty times the energy requir

24、ed to produce it.PV modules can be recycled to recover rare and valuable materials.Further research and development is needed to make these recycling processes even more in-depth and cost-effective.public8Fraunhofer ISEExecutive SummaryPrice Development Due to the coronavirus crisis and the associat

25、ed disruptions to supply and trade chains,market prices rose noticeably in 2022 and at times some products were not available in sufficient quantities.In 2023 prices fell again.In Germany prices for a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system were around 14,000/kWp in 1990.At the end of 2023,such syst

26、ems cost only 10%of the price in 1990.The compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of net prices has been-6.8%over the past 33 years.The Experience Curve also called Learning Curve-shows that in the last 43 years the module price decreased by 24.4%with each doubling of the cumulated global module production

27、.Cost reduction results from economies of scale and technological improvements.Global average Selling price(ASP)was about 0.20 US$/Wp in 2023.public9Fraunhofer ISE1.PV Market By region By technologypublic10Fraunhofer ISEPV Module Production by Region 1990-2023Percentage of Total MWp Producedpublic11

28、Data:from 2000 to 2009:Navigant;from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit;from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISEPV Module Production by RegionGlobal Annual Productionpublic12Annual Production TodayAnnual production has increased 13-fold

29、over the past decade.In 2023,approximately 95%of solar modules and their components came from Asia,primarily from China with a module production share of about 80%,which also controls more than 95%of the market for certain components such as ingots and wafers.Data from 2000 to 2009:Navigant;from 201

30、0 to 2021 IHS Markit;from 2022 estimates basaed on IEA and other sources.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data 04/2024Fraunhofer ISEOverview of PV production along the value chain July 2024public13EU PV Manufacturing Landscape Status Quo*Currently 2,100 kg/MWp poly-Si required for Ingot producti

31、on*Most of the available poly-Si capacity is held in reserve for the semiconductor industryNominal Production-Capacities in the region GWp/a:Module 8.6 Solar Cells 1.4Ingot&Wafer 0.0 Poly-Si 29*,*mg-Si 58VoltecSonnenstromfabrikAleoHeckertSoliTekELKEMpcc SEWackerSoluxtecPeimarBiSolTenkaSonnenkraftSol

32、visBruk-BetStakksbergSolarweltWacker Norway 100 MWp 500 MWp 1 GWpFerroglobeFerroglobeValue ChainSolar CellModuleIngot/Wafermg-Si Poly-SiFab SizeSource:iS NovokhatniaDomi EkoPiKCellRECOMMeyerBurgerStatus 07/24MegasolSunergEscelco3SKarpatSolarSilicon ValenExiomMetSolarAgora SolarASWSEXEEU27+CH,NO,UKNa

33、meplate Production Capacity Module Ingot(MWp/a)Nameplate Prod.Capacity mg-Si/poly-Si(*1000 10 kg/a)ModuleSolar cellIngot&Waferpoly-Simg-SiFraunhofer ISEPV Production in Germany-Status QuoPV module supplier July 2024public14CompanyLocationCapacity MWWebsiteASWSMettmann800https:/www.asws-solar.de/Solu

34、xtecBitburg550https:/www.soluxtec.de/SonnenstromfabrikWismar525https:/ SolarChemnitz400https:/Aleo SolarBerlin300https:/www.aleo-solar.de/AvancisTorgau100https:/www.avancis.de/AxSunLaupheim50https:/www.axsun.de/SunmaxxOttendorf-Okrilla50https:/sunmaxx- and Graph:Jochen Rentsch,Fraunhofer ISE 2024;la

35、st update:07/2024SonnenstromfabrikAleo SolarHeckertWackerSoluxtecMeyerBurgerSource:iS NovokhatniaAxSunSolarweltWackerAntecSunmaxxOxford PVNexWafeAvancisASWSStatus 05/07/24 50 MWp 100 MWp 500 MWp 1 GWpValue-added stageSolarzelleModuleIngot/Wafermg-Si Poly-SiFactory sizeThe production capacity for PV

36、modules in Germany amounted to about 3.2 GWp in July 2024.Fraunhofer ISEGlobal Cumulative PV Installationby Regionpublic15 Fraunhofer ISENote:The IRENA data shown here differs from that of the IEA PVPS:IRENA:1,412 GWpIEA-PVPS:1,581 GWpData:IRENA 2024.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:April-2

37、024Fraunhofer ISEGlobal Cumulative PV Installationby on-grid&off-grid installation typeApproximately 99.6%of todays installed PV capacity is connected to the grid.The proportion of off-grid systems compared to the total cumulative systems has roughly halved over time from just under 1%in 2010 to 0.4

38、3%in 2023.public16Data:IRENA 2024.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISEGlobal Cumulative PV Installation by RegionStatus 2023The total cumulative installations amounted to about 1,581 GWp according to IEA-PVPS at the end of year 2023;IRENA reports 1,412 GWp.All percentages

39、are related to global installed PV capacity,including off-grid systems.public17 Fraunhofer ISEData:IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global Market;IRENA 2024.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024;Date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISEAnnually Installed PV System Capacity in GermanyPercentage of Annual Capacity by System Size

40、The annual distribution of PV system size classes strongly depends on:Regulations Market incentives(like EEG)Tender procedures Bankability(trust of investors)public18Source until year 2020:Fraunhofer ISE,own calculations based on EEG-master and-flow data(netztransparenz.de,Sept.2021)Source since 202

41、1:Fraunhofer ISE,own calculations based on MaStR(Date:18.03.2024)and data validation algorithm0%20%40%60%80%100%Share of capacity additionsYearsGround-mounted(x 1000 kWp)Ground-mounted(750 1000 kWp)Building(750 x 1000 kWp)Building(500 x 750 kWp)Building(100 x 500 kWp)Building(30 x 100 kWp)Building(2

42、0 x 30 kWp)Building(10 x 20 kWp)Building(x 10 kWp)The“Building”category includes roofs,facades and plug-in systemsThe“Ground-mounted”category includes bodies of water,parking lots and other structuresFraunhofer ISEShare of Number of PV Systems InstalledPercentage of Cumulative Installations by Syste

43、m Size in Germany in 2023public19End of 2023 about 3.7 million grid-connected PV-Systems were installed in Germany.In 2023,around 500,000 plug-in systems(up to 600 W feed-in power),so-called balcony solar systems,were installed in Germany 1.Source:Fraunhofer ISE,own calculations based on MaStR(Date:

44、18.03.2024)and data validation algorithm1 Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR(Date:18.03.2024)and additional estimates by Fraunhofer ISENumber of PV-Systems larger than 500 kWpTotal number of all grid-connected PV-Systems Fraunhofer ISE2.456.713

45、66,08%702.10818,89%262.7807,07%180.9614,87%45.3331,22%5.7350,15%9900,03%8400,02%56.3251,52%7860,02%5.0070,13%Building(x 10 kWp)Building(10 x 20 kWp)Building(20 x 30 kWp)Building(30 x 100 kWp)Building(100 x 500 kWp)Building(500 x 750 kWp)Building(750 1000 kWp)Ground-mounted(x 750 kWp)Ground-mounted(7

46、50 1000 kWp)Fraunhofer ISE14.45317%9.46011%6.8188%9.93412%9.61212%3.7915%8911%1.4432%3.2604%7131%21.99327%Building(x 10 kWp)Building(10 x 20 kWp)Building(20 x 30 kWp)Building(30 x 100 kWp)Building(100 x 500 kWp)Building(500 x 750 kWp)Building(750 x 1000 kWp)Share of Capacity of PV-Systems Installed

47、Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2023public20Source:Fraunhofer ISE,own calculations based on MaStR(Date:18.03.2024)and data validation algorithm1 Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR(Date:18.03.2024)and addition

48、al estimates by Fraunhofer ISEPV Capacity in MWpand percentageof Systems larger than 500 kWpPV Capacity in MWpand percentageof all grid-connected PV-Systems Fraunhofer ISEEnd of 2023 a total cumulated PV capacity of about 82.4 GWp was installed in Germany.Mostly within the building PV system class(x

49、 10 kWp),balcony solar systems(up to 600 W feed-in power)accounted for 380 MWpin 2023 in Germany 1.Fraunhofer ISEShare of PV-Installations with Battery Energy Storage Systems(BESS)Residential Rooftop Systems in Germanypublic21Source:Marktstammdatenregister-MaStR(Date:01.04.2024)Fraunhofer ISEBy the

50、end of 2023 over 40%(1.2 million units)of all residential PV-systems are combined with a BESS.The share of residential rooftop PV-systems with a BESS increased from below 20%for commissioning in 2014 to almost 80%in 2023.Residential rooftop PV systems are defined as all systems on buildings with a m

51、aximum capacity of 30 kWp according to MaStR-Data.40%58%2%PV systems with battery storagePV system without battery storageUnknown1.2 Millionresidential rooftop PV systems are combined with a battery storage system0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023ShareYear of c

52、ommissioningUntil the end of 2023:By year of commissioning:Fraunhofer ISEShare of PV-Installations with Battery Energy Storage Systems(BESS)Commercial and Utility-Scale Systems in Germanypublic22Source:Marktstammdatenregister-MaStR(Date:01.04.2024)Fraunhofer ISECommercial rooftop systemsUtility-scal

53、e ground-mounted systems0%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ShareYear of commissioningPV systems with battery storagePV system without battery storageUnknown0%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ShareYear of commissioningPV systems with bat

54、tery storagePV system without battery storageUnknownThe share of PV installations with BESS increased from 5%for commissioning in 2014 to 20%in 2023 in the commercial rooftop sector.Commercial rooftop PV systems are defined as all systems on buildings with a capacity greater than 30 kWp according to

55、 MaStR-Data.There is a significant increase in PV with BESS shares in 2022 and 2023 to around 7%in the utility-scale PV power plant sector.Utility-scale ground-mounted PV systems are defined as all ground-mounted systems with a capacity greater than 1 MWp according to MaStR-Data.Fraunhofer ISEElectr

56、ical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources(RES)Germanypublic23165.6 GW of total 261.6 GW net installed electricity generation capacity in Germany were from renewable energy sources(RES)in Germany in year 2023.This results in a RE share of 63.3%of total capacity.Data:Energy Charts by Prof.Dr.Bruno Bur

57、ger.Date of data:03/2024Fraunhofer ISEPV Energy Generated and Resulting GHG Avoided EmissionsGermanypublic24In 2023 Greenhouse Gas emissions of about 42 Mio.t CO-equivalent were avoided due to 61 TWh PV electricity consumed in Germany.Data:BMU,BDEW,BMWi,Federal Environmental Agency(UBA)02/2024.Graph

58、:PSE Projects GmbH 2024Fraunhofer ISE Fraunhofer ISEAbout 500*GWp PV module production in 2023Thin filmMono-SiMulti-Si20102005201520002020Annual PV Production by TechnologyWorldwide(in GWp)*2023 production numbers reported by different analysts vary to some extent.About 410 GW have been installed in

59、 2023 globally.The TOP10 module producer together shipped about 375 GW PV panels in 2023.Total PV module shipments are estimated to be between 460 and 502 GW in 2023.public25Data:from 2000 to 2009:Navigant;from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit;from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources.Graph:PSE Proj

60、ects GmbH 2024.Date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISETechnology OverviewDifferent crystalline-Silicon Cell Technology Market Sharespublic26Source:based on ITRPV 2013-2024 Fraunhofer ISEPV Production by TechnologyPercentage of Global Annual Productionpublic27Production 2023*(GWp)Thin film 13Multi-Si 4Mon

61、o-Si 485 Total 502(ITRPV)Data:from 2000 to 2009:Navigant;from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit;from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:04/2024*estimatedFraunhofer ISEMarket Share of Thin-Film TechnologiesPercentage of Total Global PV Productionpublic28Thin

62、-Film technology contributed in year 2023 with about 2.5%to the total PV-market.Data:from 2000 to 2009:Navigant;from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit;from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISEThin-Film TechnologiesAnnual Global PV Module

63、 Productionpublic29Data:from 2000 to 2009:Navigant;from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit;from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISE2.Solar Cells/Modules/System Efficiency Development in the Laboratories Development in the PV Industry Per

64、formance Ratio(PR)public30Fraunhofer ISEDevelopment of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficienciespublic31Data:Solar Cell Efficiency Tables(Versions 1 to 64),Progress in Photovoltaics:Research and Applications,1993-2024.Graph:Fraunhofer ISE 2024.Date of data:06/2024Only official lab record efficiencies publi

65、shed in the Solar Cell Efficiency Tables,Progress in Photovoltaics:Research and Applications are included in the graph.Fraunhofer ISEEfficiency Comparison of TechnologiesBest Lab Cells vs.Best Lab ModulesNote:In mass production,the cell-to-module ratio(CTM)improved in past years by reducing losses a

66、nd using possible gains when integrating solar cells in modules.Fraunhofer ISE provides SmartCalc.CTMsoftware suite for precise Cell-to-Module(CTM)power loss analysis.It considers geometrical losses,optical losses and gains as well as electrical losses.www.cell-to-public32Data:Green et al.:Solar Cel

67、l Efficiency Tables(Version 64),Progress in PV:Research and Applications 2024.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:06/2024Fraunhofer ISECurrent Efficiencies and Power of Commercial PV ModulesSorted by technology TotalweightedaverageefficiencyofcrystallineSilicon(c-Si)wafer-basedmodulesis21.6%in

68、Q4-2023(was 20.9%in Q4-2022);weighting factoris total shipments in year 2023.Lowest moduleefficiency in this group is 17.4%(was 17.2%oneyear before)and highest value is 23.3%(was 23.2%in 2022).Top 10 manufacturers represent about 75%of totalshipment volume and origin mainly in Asia.Predominant c-Si

69、technology is mono-PERC withhalf-cut cells and Multi-Busbar.public33Data Source:company product data sheets;Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024;Date of data:02/2024Note:The selection is based on modules from the top 10 manufacturers in 2023(except CIGS),with module data sheets available worldwide at the en

70、d of January 2024.For CIGS technology,only a very limited amount of supplier data was available,and the products indicated are manufactured for niche markets such as building integrated PV(BIPV)or flexible module applications,so comparability with the other two technologies is limited.Fraunhofer ISE

71、Performance Ratio Development for PV SystemsGermany In the 1990s Typical PR 70%Widely ranging PR values Today Typical PR 83%Less variance in PR as compared to 1990spublic34Source:Fraunhofer ISE“1000 Dcher Jahresbericht“1994 and 1997;2011 system evaluation,CPIA 2021Fraunhofer ISE3.Life Cycle Assessme

72、nt(LCA)and Sustainability Aspects Silicon usage,wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si EPBT:Development and comparisonpublic35Fraunhofer ISEc-Si Solar Cell DevelopmentWafer Thickness m&Silicon Usage g/Wppublic36Data:until 2012:EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda,from 2012:ITRPV;from

73、2016 ISE without;2017 ongoing with recycling of Si.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024;date of data:04/2024Fraunhofer ISEHistoric Trend in Energy Payback TimeHarmonized study data for mono-crystalline silicon rooftop PV systemsLearning Rate:Each time the cumulative production doubled,the EPBT went down by

74、12.8%for the last 24 years.public37*Koppelaar(2016)-Solar-PV energy payback and net energy:Meta-assessment of study quality,reproducibility,and results harmonization,Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Leccidi et al.(2016)-The Energy and Environmental Performance of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic

75、SystemsA Timely Update,EnergiesLouwen et al.(2014)-Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy payback time of current and prospective silicon heterojunction solar cell designs,Progress in PhotovoltaicsFriedrich et al.(2020)-Global Warming Potential and Energy Payback Time Analysis of Photovoltai

76、c Electricity by Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell(PERC)Solar Modules,submitted JPVHarmonization methodologybased on Koppelaar(2016)harmonized results and harmonization parameters1)Performance Ratiobased on average annual PV yield during lifetimePV system lifetime25Degradation0.70%PR(initial)80%PR(in

77、cl.average degradation during lifetime)73.6%2)Grid efficiencyfor converting PV yield in primary energy equivalentsgrid efficiency35%EPBT of Leccisi(2016),Louwen(2014)and Friedrich(2020)were harmonized with 1)PR(incl.average degradation)and 2)grid efficiency to results of Koppelaar(2016)*Data:Fraunho

78、fer ISE.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2021Irradiation:1700 kWh/m/a at an optimized tilt angle;Years:Estimated average year of original dataFraunhofer ISEEnergy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop SystemsGeographical Comparison Rooftop PV system using mono-crystalline silicon cells*produced in China EPBT i

79、s dependent on irradiation,but also on other factors like grid efficiency*.Better grid efficiency in Europe may decrease the EPBT by typically 9.5%compared to PV modules produced in China.public38Irradiation(GTI,kWh/m/a)EPBT2200 1.3 years1.0 yearData source:Fraunhofer ISE.Image:JRC European Commissi

80、on.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2020(Modified scale with updated data from Fraunhofer ISE)*Cz PERC cells module with 19.9%efficiency*relation between primary energy to produced electricity in the grid used for manufacturing of the PV systemFraunhofer ISEWorld Map EPBT of Silicon PV Rooftop SystemsCompari

81、son of EPBT ChinaInfluencing Factors and Interpretation EPBT:the lower,the better Irradiation:the higher,the better Grid efficiency:the higher,the better in countries where upstream production is located;(better energy mix to generate electrical power;less losses in the electrical transmission netwo

82、rk).At downstream(where PV is installed)a low grid efficiency reduces the EPBT.public39EPBTEPBT=Energy Pay Back Time in years:Calculated for PV-system with Cz PERC 60 cells modules with 19.9%efficiency produced in ChinaData source:Fraunhofer ISE.Fraunhofer ISEEnergy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooft

83、op Systems Comparison of EPBT China/EU,local Irradiation and Grid Efficiency 2021public40EPBT for PV systems produced in Europe is shorter than for those produced in China because of better grid efficiency in Europe.Data source:Fraunhofer ISE.Calculations for year 2021 made at 22-July 2022 Fraunhofe

84、r ISEPV-ModuleMaterials and Componentspublic41Source:Fraunhofer ISE 2024Mass fraction of substance in relation to total module mass of 11.6 kg/m(100%)given in brackets;Date of data:2021Solar cellsSi(2.7%)Ag/PbO(0.04%)Ag/Al/PbO(0.01%)Al(0.07%)11.6 kg/m 3.3 kWh/m2(Module)80.9 kWh/m2(Solar cells)Al Fra

85、meAlMg3(12.7%)InterconnectorCu(1.3%)Sn(0.09%)/Pb(0.09%)J-BoxGRP,Polyamide(1.6%)Silicones(1.2%)Diodes/Cables(0.02%)Glass(67.5%)SbEthylene-vinyl acetate(6.7%)BacksheetPVF/Glue/PET/Glue/PVF(3.7%)FPlease note:Highly transparent glass can also be produced without antimony(Sb),and some European suppliers

86、are doing so.It is technically feasible to recycle and reuse almost 100%of the materials used in PV modules.The European WEEE Directive stipulates that at least 80%of the module mass of old modules must be processed and recycled for reuse.For economic reasons,however,only the glass,frame and junctio

87、n box(J-Box)are recycled today.Color legend:Available/harmless materialsRare/valuable materialsHazardous substancesRecycling takes placeDowncycling takes placeFraunhofer ISE4.Price Development Electricity costs Market incentives in Germany Costs for PV systems Price Learning Curvepublic42Fraunhofer

88、ISEElectricity Prices,PV Feed-In Tariffs(FIT)and Bidding Scheme in GermanyWith Photovoltaic Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In Tariffpublic43Data:BNA;energy-charts.info;Design:B.Burger-Fraunhofer ISE.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024;Date of data:04/2024Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In TariffFraunhofer ISEPV

89、 Market Development and Incentive Schemes in Germanypublic44Market IncentiveStartEnd1000 Roofs Program19901995Cost-covering remuneration19931999100000 Roofs-Program19992003EEG2000ongoingPV Tendering scheme2015ongoingThe EEG 2023 law relies on a massive expansion of renewable energies with total inst

90、alled PV capacity targets of 215 GW in year 2030 and 400 GW in 2040.In 2023,new PV systems totaling around 15 GW capacity have been connected to the grid.9 GW capacity was announced for 2024.From 2026 on,the expansion target is 22 GW of new installations on an annual basis.Data:BNA.Graph:B.Burger,Fr

91、aunhofer ISE Energy-Charts.Date of Data:03/2024Fraunhofer ISEPV Tender Scheme in Germany for Free-Standing SystemsAverage,quantity weighted award value The PV tender scheme for large ground-mounted systems started in April 2015.The total capacity of this scheme amounted to 14.1 GW in Dec.2023 with 5

92、.2 ct/kWh as latest average quantity weighted award price.PV-rooftop and special tenders are not displayed in the graph.public45Data:BNA.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024 Date of data:Feb-2024Fraunhofer ISEPV-Tender in Germany for Large Rooftop-SystemsAverage,quantity weighted award value PV-Tender schem

93、e for large rooftop systems(750 kW)started in June 2021 and total capacity of this scheme accumulates to 1.66 GW by Feb-2024 with 8.9 ct/kWh as latest average quantity weighted award price.Lowest PV-Tender Round was in June 2021 with 6.88 ct/kWh as average quantity weighted award price.public46Data:

94、BNA.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024 Date of data:03/2024Fraunhofer ISEGlobal Weighted Average Levelised Costs of Electricity for Large PV Systems(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)The global weighted average LCoE was in year 2022 for large PV systems 0.047/kWh(=47/MWh).The 5th percentile is a val

95、ue associated with the location within the data where 5%of data is below that value.In year 2022 the 5th percentile was 0.029/kWh(=29/MWh).The 95th percentile is the value where 5%of the data has a larger value.In year 2022 the 95th percentile was 0.114/kWh(=114/MWh).The LCoE decreased by about 15%o

96、n year-to-year basis in the last 12 years.public47Data:IRENA(2023),Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.Currency converted from USD to EUR.Date of data:Sep-2023Fraunhofer ISEGlobal Weighted Average Total Installed Costs For Large PV Systems(with 5t

97、h percentile and 95th percentile)The global weighted average total cost for large PV systems was 833/kWp in year 2022.The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location within the data where 5%of data is below that value.In year 2022 the 5th percentile was 541/kWp.The 95th percentile is the

98、value where 5%of the data has a larger value.In year 2022 the 95th percentile was 1786/kWp.Total installed cost for large PV systems decreased by about 12%on year-to-year basis in the last 12 years.public48Data:IRENA(2023),Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022,International Renewable Energy Agenc

99、y,Abu Dhabi.Currency converted from USD to EUR.Date of data:Sep-2023Fraunhofer ISEPrice Development for PV Rooftop Systems in Germany(10kWp-100kWp)Balance of System(BOS)encompasses all components of a PV system excluding the PV modules.These are the inverter,mounting system,switches,wiring and insta

100、llation work,for example.public49BOS incl.InverterModulesPercentage of the Total CostData:BSW-Solar.Graph:PSE Projects GmbH 2024.Date of data:11/2023Fraunhofer ISEBreakdown of Utility-scale PV Total Installed CostsBy Country in 2022public50Breakdown of cost components(average of available country da

101、ta):Data:IRENA(2023),Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.Currency converted from USD to EUR.Date of data:Sep-2023Fraunhofer ISEBreakdown of Total Installation Costs of Utility-Scale PV Germany 2019 to 2022public51Supply bottlenecks due to the coro

102、navirus crisis led to price turbulence in 2022.Data:IRENA(2023),Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.Currency converted from USD to EUR.Date of data:Sep-2023Fraunhofer ISEPrice Learning CurveIncludes all Commercially Available PV TechnologiesLearni

103、ng Rate:Each time the cumulative PV module production doubled,the module price dropped about 24.4%over the past 43 years.public52Data:from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources:Strategies Unlimited,Navigant Consulting,EUPD,pvXchange;from 2011:IHS Markit;from 2022:ISE;Graph:PSE Projects GmbH

104、 2024Fraunhofer ISEPrice Learning CurveIncludes all Commercially Available PV Technologiespublic53Learning Rate:Each time the cumulative PV module production doubled,the module price dropped about 24.4%over the past 43 years.Fraunhofer ISEFurther ReadingSelected studies and analysesfraunhofer-ISE En

105、ergy ChartsStudy:Levelized Cost of Electricity-Renewable Energy TechnologiesRecent facts about photovoltaics in GermanyPower Generation from Renewable Energy in Germany What will the Energy Transformation Cost?Pathways for Transforming the German Energy System by 2050Sustainable PV Manufacturing in

106、Europe An Initiative for a 10 GW Green Fab Meta Study:Future Crosssectoral Decarbonization Target Systems in Comparison to Current Status of Technologiespublic54Fraunhofer ISEAbbreviationspublic55AbbreviationExplanationAbbreviationExplanationACAlternating CurrentHCPVHigh Concentrator PhotovoltaicAl-

107、BSFAluminum Back Surface FieldHJT(also HIT)Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-LayerBESSBattery Energy Storage SystemsIBCInterdigitated Back Contact(solar cells)BIPVBuilding Integrated PVLCOELevelized Cost of EnergyBOSBalance of SystemLCPVLow Concentrator PhotovoltaicCdTeCadmium-TellurideMJMulti Junc

108、tionCI(G)SCopper Indium(Gallium)DiselenideMPPMaximum Power PointCPVConcentrating Photovoltaicn-typeNegatively doped wafer(with phosphorous)c-SICrystalline SiliconPERXPassivated emitter and rear cellCTMCell-to-ModulePRPerformance RatioCzCzochralski Methodp-typePositively doped wafer(with boron or gal

109、lium)DCDirect currentPVPhotovoltaicEEGRenewable Energy Source Act(Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz,EEG)RERenewable EnergiesEIThe Energy InstituteROIReturn on InvestmentEPBTEnergy Payback TimeSISiliconEROIEnergy Return of Invest SICSilicon carbideFZFloating ZoneTOPConTunnel Oxide Passivated ContactGaAsGal

110、lium ArsenideVATValue Added TaxGaNGallium nitrideFraunhofer ISEAcknowledgementsThis work has been carried out with contributions from:The information provided in this Photovoltaics Report is very concise by its nature.Its principal purpose is to provide a rough overview about the current solar PV ma

111、rket,the technologies and the environmental impact.However,there are many more aspects.These and further details can be provided by Fraunhofer ISE upon request.Please contact us if you are interested in receiving a tailor-made offer.simon.philippsise.fraunhofer.de warmuthpse-projects.depublic56NameI

112、nstitutionAndreas BettISEBruno BurgerISEChristoph KostISESebastian NoldISEDominik PeperISESimon PhilippsISERalf PreuISEChristian ReichelISEJochen RentschISEGerhard Stryi-HippISETobias ReuterISEHarry WirthISEWerner WarmuthPSE Projects GmbHThank You for Your Interest Contactsimon.philippsise.fraunhofer.de warmuthpse-projects.de