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1、ICIS LNG Outlook 2024:More of the same?Alex Siow,Lead Asia Gas AnalystChristopher Rene,Europe Gas Analyst5 March 2024Agenda01020304Sub$10/mmbtu price:How did we get hereICIS mid-term LNG balance:How did we compare with ShellFID+non-FID LNG supply2024 Supply&Demand outlookGas crisis to global oversup

2、ply?02040608010020202021202220232024$/MMBtuAsia spot(ICIS EAX)ICIS BrentICIS TTFHenry HubMarkets tighten in 2021 winter,followed by the Ukraine war a few months laterGas crisis over?Asia spot(ICIS EAX)went below$2/MMBtu.Global LNG is set for oversupply before 2030-10001002003004005006007002020202120

3、2220232024202520262027202820292030Million tonnesGlobal LNG Supply&Demand estimatesGapICIS DemandICIS Supply(FID)Shell demandCurrent non-FID supply projects will further exacerbate oversupply in 2027-29 period0102030405060708090202420252026202720282029mtpaAnnual new LNG supply:FID vs non-FIDFIDno FID

4、Major LNG start-ups in the coming 3 yearsArctic LNG 26.6mT?Feb2024LNG Canada14mTFeb2025Golden Pass15.6mTApr2025Fast Altamira1.4mTApr2024TortueLNG2.5mT Oct2024Plaquemines13.3mTQ12025CorpusChristi9.45mTSep2025TangoFLNG2 2.4mTDec2025Fast P21.4mTQ22026PlutoT25mTJune2026Costa Azul3.25mTOct2025Qatar NFE32

5、mTMar2026NLNGT77mTQ12026Jan2024Tango FLNG0.6mTLNG supply by countryKey drivers in Asian countriesAn under-supplied 2024 with slight relief in 2025Latent demand(mostly from Asia)can be realised this year given the sub-$10/mmbtuprice environmentOnly 20mT of new LNG will be online this year.In 2023,onl

6、y 13mT was brought onstream.Thus,ICIS view of 2024 market to be more of the same with 2023 from a fundamental perspective.The key determinant to spot price level will be the pace of demand response;ie.how quickly price-sensitive buyers pick-up market slack.2024-15mT2025-7mTWill Europe be staging a d

7、emand recovery?Christopher Ren European gas analystMarch 2024AgendaI.What is the European gas demand outlook?II.How will supply respond to changes in demand?III.What if Europe lost Russian gas through Ukraine?Where are we now?EU GASH2 24 is key but sub-2022 levels anticipatedWeak growth for industri

8、al gas,power demand and residential(household purchasing power)Relatively high fuel costsGLOBAL LNG2023:Sluggish demand and limited supply additions(e.g.Freeport).Rebalancing2024:LNG demand growth(EU&China)and limited supply.Short marketPrices will need to remain firm at times through the year to dr

9、ive the market to balance.Rules out pre-crisis levels(return to 2017-2021 average)020406080100120140160180200Q1Q2Q3Q4/MWhContractICIS Dutch TTF gas contract expiries and forward prices202120222023202420252017-2021 averageWhat is the European gas demand outlook?2024 gas demand+8%yoy;2025+6%yoy 2024 d

10、emand set to be 2%below 2022 levels and 12%below the 2017-2021 average 2025:4%above 2022;7%below 2017-2021 average This years recovery weighted to H2 2024.Falling inflation rates,lower consumer prices expected 2023:-9%yoy-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000201720182019202020212

11、022202320242025TWhEU12+GB gas demand2024 power sector demand-11%yoy;2025+2%yoy 2024 demand set to be 13%below 2022 levels 2025:-11%below 2022 Bloc renewables&nuclear+118TWh but demand+75TWh.Weak profit margins 20-30%of gas total 2023:-3%yoy 020040060080010001200140020182019202020212022202320242025TW

12、hEU12+GB gas-to-power demand2024 industrial&res-com+8%yoy;2025+6%yoy 2024 demand set to be 2%below 2022 levels 2025:4%above 2022 2023:-9%yoy Fuel costs converging on multi-year averages Weak profit margins Res-com:50%of gas total;industrial:20-30%05001000150020002500300035004000201820192020202120222

13、02320242025TWhEU12+GB industrial and res-com gas demandIndustrial gas demand:Ammonia production view 37mtpa European ammonia market drives 34bcm/y gas demand at 100%rate 68%utilisation in 2022 81%utilisation in 2024 Based on pre-crisis run rates of 95%,2024 demand 13mcm/d lower-5.00 10.00 15.00 20.0

14、0 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025m tonnesICIS Europe-28 Ammonia forecastCapacityProductionIndustrial gas demand:the wider petrochemical viewChemicals is the largest subsector of industrial energy demand in Europe(22%in 2021).Margins hit and plants closing:low

15、 demand,increasing global competition,high fuel costs.2024 outlook:Below-average output.Overcapacity due to slowing demand growth and new capacity coming online.Further out:New global capacity scheduled for 2027-2028.Growth in US,Middle East,China.85%utilisation rate is profit thresholdHow will Euro

16、pe satisfy the gains in demand?LNG imports,storage to fulfil majority of 8%rise in demandKey changes:+8%gas demand+15%LNG imports+1%production-1%Norwegian gas Russian gas unchangedEU12+GB LNG imports:2024+15%yoy;2025+11%yoyGrowth driven by:EU12+GB:2024 imports+12mt(+15%yoy).Gas demand+8%yoy&new rega

17、sification capacity.2025 imports+12mt(+11%)Further supported by:PL:2024 imports+0.4mt(+7%yoy).Rising gas demand&Swinoujscie LNG terminal expansion but Baltic Pipe imports could dampen demand.2025 imports+0.8mt(+16%)GR:2024 imports+0.5mt(+26%).Q1 24 start for Alexandroupolis FSRU&Greece-North Macedon

18、ia interconnector to follow.2025 imports-0.1mt(-4%)FI:2024 imports+0.2mt(+22%).Baltic Connector outage from Oct 23 ups reliance on LNG but 2024 return expected.2025 imports-0.1mt(-9%)EU27+GB:2024 imports+13mt(+15%).2025 imports+13mt(+10%)020406080100120140160201720182019202020212022202320242025Tonne

19、s(millions)European LNG importsEU12+UKRest of EULNG terminal additions:capacity+29bcm/y in 2024(+11%yoy)CountryTypeTerminalNew/ExistingOperational start earliestOperational start latestStorages capacity cbmRegasification capacity mcm/dBelgiumOnshore ZeebruggeExpansion 101/01/202431/03/2024-18 Belgiu

20、mOnshore ZeebruggeExpansion 201/01/202631/03/2026-5 CroatiaFSRUKrk FSRUExpansion01/01/202431/12/2025-8 CyprusFSRUCyprus LNG terminalNew01/07/202431/07/2024137,000 2 EstoniaOnshore Paldiski LNG terminalNew01/01/202531/12/2025320,000 7 GermanyOnshore TES Wilhelmshaven New01/10/202531/12/20251,600,000

21、21 GermanyFSRUBrunsbttelNew:phase 201/12/202331/03/2024-11 GermanyOnshore BrunsbttelNew01/01/202631/12/2026330,000 23 GermanyFSRU IIDeutsche ReGas Lubmin/Mukran IINew01/10/202431/12/2024210,000 25 GermanyFSRU IIWilhelmshaven LNG New01/01/202431/03/2024138,000 12 GermanyFSRUStade FSRUNew01/01/202431/

22、03/202470,000 10GermanyOnshore Hanseatic Energy Hub terminalNew01/01/202731/12/2027480,000 36 GreeceFSRUAlexandroupolis FSRUNew01/01/202431/03/2024170,000 17 0100200300400500600700800Q1-22Q2-22Q3-22Q4-22Q1-23Q2-23Q3-23Q4-23Q1-24Q2-24Q3-24Q4-24mcm/dEuropean regasification capacitySpainFranceMaltaUnit

23、ed KingdomLithuaniaPortugalCroatiaCyprusNetherlandsEstoniaFinlandGermanyPolandGreeceIrelandItalyBelgiumGlobal LNG market to be short in 2024 as demand growth outpaces supply LNG demand to climb 5%yoy to 424m tonnes LNG supply to climb 2%yoy to 413m tonnes NW European demand to rise 15%Asian demand t

24、o climb 2%(China up,Japan down)-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024TWhMain LNG demand markets vs global supply-demand balanceChinaJapanNorth West EuropeSouth KoreaUnited KingdomTaiwanIndiaIberiaItalyGlobal LNG supplyGlobal LNG demandS

25、torage to hit 90%fullness in Aug 24 and Sep 25EU target is 90%fullness by 1 November.Hitting target early is due to:Above-average/historically high reserves due to successive mild winters Slow demand growth this year Normal weather conditions for Winter 23/240102030405060708090100JanFebMarAprMayJunJ

26、ulAugSepOctNovDec%EU11+GB storage fullness2022202320242025Source:ICIS Gas ForesightDanish gas production takes spotlight in 2024Tyra gas field leading the uptick in production Taken offline for refurbishment early 2019;repeatedly delayed Expected to come back late March 2.8bcm/year;4-month ramp-up p

27、hase Supplying DK via Orsteds pipeline&NL via NOGAT export pipelineImplications DK becomes net exporter and potentially transit hub for PL volumes DK has exported to PL using NO imports via Baltic Pipe DK has imported from DE.DE has exported to PLPipeline gas to provide 1732TWh in 2024-1%yoyChanges

28、in key routes to Europe:NO:2024 imports-16TWh(-1%yoy).Gassco maintenance RU:2024 imports unchanged around 127TWh.Ukraine transit agreement to expires year end DZ:2024 imports+3TWh(+1%yoy)AZ:2024 imports+2TWh(+2%yoy)LY:2024 imports unchanged around 26TWh.020406080100120140160180Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24TWhEU12+GB gas pipeline importsNorwayRussiaAzerbaijanAlgeriaLybiaMore energy insights for readingNeed more info on LNG data and analytics?Thank youContact us