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1、ResearchUnited States|2024 QU.S.office recovery passes a new milestone with the first quarter of positive net absorption since 2021U.S.Office Market DynamicsKey findings2U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q41Demand has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels For three consecutive quarters,office leasing

2、 volume has established a new post-pandemic high.Q4 leasing volume reflected over 92%of typical pre-pandemic averages.2Net absorption flips positive for first quarter since 2021 The market experienced its first quarter of positive net absorption since Q4 2021,and just the second time since the pande

3、mic began.Availability has declined for two consecutive quarters,pointing towards notable declines in vacancy in 2025.3Rent momentum remains broadly positive Despite lagging against inflation,same-store asking rents continue to grow.Face rates and effective rates on leases signed in 2024 saw an impr

4、ovement from softening economics in 2023.4New supply will become even more scarce in 2025 Groundbreakings for the past six quarters have averaged 10%lower than the previous historical low.Record volume of inventory continues to be removed for conversion and redevelopment.5Hybrid employers still requ

5、esting more office attendance Momentum continues for return-to-office,with several major employers establishing or increasing requirements,or announcing new mechanisms of enforcement in Q4.and underperforming inventory is rapidly being removed from the market for conversions and redevelopments.The m

6、acroeconomic landscape has evolved significantly in the past quarter.Inflation progress has temporarily stalled,with both the CPI and PCE showing increases for the past two monthly readings,and 10-year treasuries have risen 74 basis points over the past three months.Labor markets are softer than rec

7、ent years but remain resilient:office-using industries added 104,000 jobs in the past quarter and have grown by 615,000 during 2024,down somewhat from 763,000 jobs added in 2023.After the results of the November presidential election,federal policy is now anticipated to shift in several consequentia

8、l ways.The new administration has signaled a desire to require federal workers to return to offices,potentially U.S.office recovery passes a new milestone with the first quarter of positive net absorption since 20213U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4The culmination of 2024 marked another key develop

9、ment in the recovery of the U.S.office marketas leasing activity has accelerated over the course of the year,Q4 was the first quarter of positive net absorption since Q4 2021,and just the second quarter of occupancy gain since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.Leasing activity has established post-p

10、andemic highs for the past three consecutive quarters,and Q4 volume reflected more than 92%of pre-pandemic averages.With many companies establishing regular office attendance requirements in recent years,downsizing rates have fallen significantly,allowing emerging organic demand growth to drive gain

11、s for the overall market.Rental rates continue to trend upwards on average,and landlords saw some moderation of concessions rates that have grown significantly in recent years.They will see further relief over the medium term as the development pipeline has declined dramatically from 2019 levels,4U.

12、S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4spurring more activity in Washington,DC and other federal government enclaves,and potential tax cuts or removal of regulatory burdens is expected to drive faster growth generally.However,policies surrounding tariffs and immigration have the potential to undercut growt

13、h and drive inflation if implemented to their full extent.These expectations have already impacted the interest rate outlook:three months ago,investors were expecting three additional rate cuts in 2024 and four in 2025;after 50 bps of cuts in the last two months,investors now expect only two additio

14、nal cuts in 2025.Despite the volatility,U.S.office occupiers had their most active quarter since the onset of the pandemic,leasing 52.9 million s.f.to establish a post-pandemic high for the third straight quarter.That reflected 4.9%growth quarter-over-quarter(QoQ)and 17.6%growth year-over-year(YoY),

15、with Q4 volume surpassing 92%of pre-pandemic averages.Variance among different geographic regions is beginning to narrow as the recovery spreads more broadlywhile Sun Belt markets still lead with over 95%of pre-pandemic activity over the last six months,gateway markets have recovered to a significan

16、t degree as well,reaching 76%of pre-pandemic activity in the second half of the year.Cyclical trends impacting industry-level activity are also beginning to normalizeafter an active second half,the technology industry returned to the largest share of national office leasing after being surpassed by

17、banking and finance in 2023.Finance continues to lead among major office-using industries,reaching nearly 90%of pre-pandemic volume in 2024.In 2024,law firms(+5%),architecture and engineering firms(+32%)and logistics and distribution firms(+28%)all surpassed Leasing activity establishes new post-pan

18、demic high for third consecutive quarterSource:JLL ResearchNote:Dark blue columns represent leasing volume by coworking providers and are excluded from pre-pandemic average.010,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,00070,000,00080,000,00020172018201920202021202220232024Gross leasing

19、activity(s.f.)-15%Trailing 4 quarters vs.pre-pandemic+4.5%Q-o-Q5U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4Leasing strategies are shifting,but economics are not softening broadlySource:JLL ResearchNote:First generation new leases and relocations defined as new leases and relocations into buildings constructe

20、d 2015 or later.Average T.I.allowance and free rent reflects equivalent values for 10-year lease term.In recent quarters,first-generation leases are increasingly concentrated in higher-cost markets that still have newer product available(e.g.New York,Austin,Silicon Valley),which is driving up averag

21、e rates.their typical pre-pandemic average.Leasing strategies continue to reflect the shift from a low-rate environment with a robust development pipeline to the current higher rate environment with diminishing high-end optionsfirst-generation new leases and relocations comprised less than 6%of leas

22、ing volume in 2024,while renewals and extensions have generated a considerably larger share of volume.While this is nominally reducing the rental rates on executed leases,a narrower look at individual market segments shows that rental rates continue to grow.Effective rents in first-generation space

23、grew nearly 17%YoY,rebounding from softening in 2023,and second-generation leases and renewals both grew roughly 7%YoY.In each of these segments,effective rents also grew faster than face rates in 2024,as concessions rates have largely plateaued after a significant runup in the last ten years.Asking

24、 rates continue to marginally increase,with same-asset rents growing 0.2%in the past year.Although asking rents have not declined since the outset of the pandemic,their growth has lagged substantially against inflation:same-asset rents are now up 6.1%since Q4 2019,while cumulative CPI growth has bee

25、n 23.1%.Lease TypeLease TypeShare of transaction Share of transaction volume(%)volume(%)EffectiveEffectiverate(FSG)rate(FSG)Face Face rate(FSG)rate(FSG)TermTermT.I.T.I.allowanceallowanceFree Free rentrent1st GenerationNew/Relocation$50 per s.f.+16.9%YoY$65 per s.f.+14.9%YoY9.8 years-3.8%YoY$99 per s

26、.f.-0.4%YoY9.3 months+2.6%YoY2nd+GenerationNew/Relocation$35 per s.f.+7.0%YoY$47 per s.f.+5.9%YoY8.8 years+0.3%YoY$79 per s.f.+2.9%YoY8.8 months-0.3%YoYRenewals&Extensions$38 per s.f.+6.9%YoY$48 per s.f.+6.9%YoY7.1 years-2.1%YoY$59 per s.f.-1.8%YoY8.9 months-1.0%YoY0%5%10%15%201920202021202220232024

27、30%35%40%45%20192020202120222023202430%35%40%45%50%201920202021202220232024The sublease market has also shown steady improvement over the course of 2024.New additions placed on the market declined in each quarter,and cumulatively fell by 26%YoY,with four of the last five months seeing less sublease

28、additions than the monthly average since 2020.Backfills have also been active,growing 11%YoY even as availability levels are declining.Tenants who are expanding their portfolios have been keen to pursue high-quality subleases when available,illustrated by 2024s largest sublease,Snowflakes 773,000-s.

29、f.sublease in Meta Platforms Menlo Park campus.Those forces have driven sublease vacancy levels down for five consecutive quarters,now returning to mid-2022 levels.Moderating sublease additions correlate strongly with a broader decline in downsizing activity taking place over the past nine months,wh

30、ich continued to play out in Q4.While larger tenants facing a lease expiration are still trimming their footprints,6U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4050,000,000100,000,000150,000,000200,000,000250,000,00020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202

31、32024Sublease space(s.f.)Sublease vacancySublease availabilitySublease vacancy rates are beginning to fallrapidly as space is backfilled or expiringSource:JLL Researchrates of downsizing have fallen more than 50%from peak levels and are improving rapidly.In 2024,tenants over 25,000 s.f.who acted upo

32、n a lease expiration cut their footprints by 7.9%on average,the most substantial YoY improvement in this metric since the pandemic began.Q4 saw the lowest downsizing rate to date,with expiring tenants associated with just over 200,000 s.f.in footprint reduction on nearly 7 million s.f.of leases.63%o

33、f large tenants who had expiring leases in 2024 either maintained their footprint or expanded,the largest share in recent years.As downsizing activity is slowing,engines for growth within the office market are becoming more prominent.Artificial intelligence companies leased more than 1.4 million s.f

34、.in 2024,with most of that space being net new demand.Finance and legal firms have also stabilized their footprints in most markets and are beginning to expand in places like the Sun Belt and New York.Some companies who cut space too aggressively in earlier stages of the pandemic are finding space p

35、ressures as their employees return:Amazon notably leased several 7U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4The average tenant over 25,000 s.f.facing an expiration over the past 12 months cut space by-7.9%-20%-15%-10%-5%2021202220232024Downsizing rate for major tenantsSource:JLL ResearchNote:Includes tenant

36、s above 25,000 s.f.with a single office location in the market.Excludes tenants who downsized by more than 50%or expanded by more than 50%.N=1,475hundred thousand square feet of space in the final months of the year in efforts to accomplish their five-day RTO policy which will take effect next year.

37、All these factors helped contribute to the first quarter of positive net absorption since 2021,and just the second quarter of occupancy gain since the onset of the pandemic.The U.S.experienced a marginal 276,400 s.f.of net absorption in Q4,a negligible amount of occupancy gain,but importantly revers

38、ing the significant occupancy loss that has occurred over the past 20 quarters.The U.S.still saw 33.6 million s.f.of negative net absorption over the course of the year,but the improvement in Q4 points toward much more stability in 2025.Despite the jump in net absorption,vacancy rates rose by a marg

39、inal 9 bps amid a slight uptick in construction deliveries.Availability declined for the second consecutive quarter,by 7.8 million s.f.,implying a continued positive outlook for absorption and vacancy rates as some of the leases executed over the past 6-9 months take occupancy in the first half of n

40、ext year.Occupancy losses continue to be highly concentrated in cases where they are occurring.In Q4,just 11.4%of buildings experienced an increase in vacancy rate,the lowest share of the market in the past ten years.This is partly due to an intense flight to quality that continues to play out even

41、as tenants shift to more defensive strategies.Many of the downsizing leases executed throughout the pandemic have also upgraded to newer and more amenitized buildings,leaving large chunks of vacancy in older assets or even vacating entire buildings in some instances.That has led to an upcycling of o

42、ccupancy,where older buildings have lost over 400 million s.f.of occupancy since 2020,but newer buildings constructed in the past decade8U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4Source:JLL ResearchAbsorption flips marginally positive as new demand begins to eclipse downsizing+276,400-50,000,000-40,000,000-

43、30,000,000-20,000,000-10,000,000010,000,00020,000,00030,000,000201620172018201920202021202220232024Net absorption(s.f.)have gained nearly 150 million s.f.of occupancy.As development now slows,vacancy rates in new supply are declining swiftly in most markets.38 of the 53 office markets tracked by JLL

44、 have lower vacancy rates in new supply,and national vacancy is more than 400 basis points lower in newer product.The absence of newly-delivered space is beginning to be felt by tenants in many markets.Available supply in newer buildings peaked in 2022 at over 100 million s.f.nationally,but has sinc

45、e declined 25%from those levels,and more rapidly in certain pockets.With deliveries and new groundbreakings slowing concurrently with an acceleration in leasing activity,this is driving a spillover effect where broader segments of the market are beginning to stabilize and experience growth that was

46、previously confined to the narrow high-end segment of the market.The intensity of this spillover demand has varied geographically in correlation with the amount of newer supply that remains available,but spillover demand is benefitting similar pockets of the market across multiple geographies,with t

47、enants targeting buildings in top-tier locations,or buildings where upgrades have brought building quality nearly in line with newer construction.9U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q40%10%20%30%San FranciscoAtlantaCharlotteBostonWashington,DCSeattleMinneapolisNew YorkHoustonNew JerseyOverall vacancy(%

48、)New construction vacancy spreads by market38 of JLLs 53 tracked markets have lower vacancy rates in newer productNew supplyOlderSource:JLL ResearchNote:New supply=offices built 2015-202410U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4Building TypeBuilding TypeWhy?Why?Tier 2 Buildings(e.g.second-generation cons

49、truction or recently-renovated older buildings)Represents the most competitive stock compared to the quality of recent deliveriesHistorical Buildings(built pre-1970)Often built in prime CBD locations,usually renovated in past cycle,many have architectural significanceHighly-Amenitized Buildings(have

50、 an abundance of amenity offerings including high-end amenities)Many can accomplish the experiential factors desired by todays tenants by investing capital and dedicating more space to amenities.Transit-Oriented Locations(same block access or within 1 block of mass transit or commuter terminal)Reduc

51、ing commute times remains one of the most highly sought-after“amenities”for office tenantsMixed-Use Neighborhoods(urban periphery or master-planned districts with diverse property types)Technology and creative industries continue to target submarkets with these characteristics,and increasingly tradi

52、tional office-using industriesFrom a product standpoint,the buildings that are most competitive with newer supply have been the primary beneficiaries of increased demand as leasing in new construction falls.Second-generation new construction,or buildings that have been renovated in the past decade h

53、ave seen their share of leasing volume growing since early 2022,and historical buildings,which often have unique features or architectural significance,have been absorbing more demand since mid-2023.More generally,highly amenitized buildings in CBD markets have gained nearly 2 million s.f.of occupan

54、cy in 2024,regardless of their original development year.A similar story is playing out from a locational standpoint:availability rates in mixed-use neighborhoods have been declining since late 2021,and availability in transit-oriented nodes has been declining since the beginning of 2022.These and o

55、ther areas or building types with differentiated features stand to continue to benefit from this spillover effect in 2025 as new deliveries continue to slow.Beneficiaries of the spillovereffect 11U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4Office development declined to unprecedented levels in 2024,amplifying

56、 the high-end supply pressures that have yet to fully materialize.Just over 500,000 s.f.of construction broke ground in Q4,and projects continue to be dominated by small-scale,pre-committed developments.Prior to 2023,the historical low for office groundbreakings over more than 50 years was Q4 of 201

57、0 when just 1.3 million s.f.broke ground.Over the past six quarters,average groundbreakings have been just 1.2 million s.f.The remaining pipeline declined by almost 40%YoY and has fallen by nearly 80%since 2019.Nearly 30 million s.f.delivered in 2024 that will decline by about 20%in 2025 and then de

58、cline by almost 75%annually for two consecutive years.In the absence of an imminent acceleration in groundbreakings,new office deliveries will be extremely low by historical standards from 2026 through at least 2028.Average groundbreakings for the past six quarters are 10%lower than the previous his

59、torical lowSource:JLL Research05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,00030,000,0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Groundbreakings(s.f.)12U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4Compounding the impact of slowing development activit

60、y,conversions and redevelopments have been growing over a 20%annual growth rate since 2020 and have established record inventory removal levels for each of the past four years.In 2024 more than 37 million s.f.was taken offline or planned for removal,most of which was comprised by office-to-residenti

61、al conversion projects.Office conversions and redevelopments continue to generate considerable momentum because of the shifting regulatory environment surrounding these projects,and the opportunity presented by deeply discounted office valuations.13 of the 20 largest office markets in the U.S.have c

62、reated new incentives for office redevelopments since 2020.Office inventory removals have increased at a rate of more than 20%annually since 201905,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,00030,000,00035,000,00040,000,000200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201

63、8201920202021202220232024Inventory removals(s.f.)DemolitionNon-office RedevelopmentConversionGenerally,these changes either make it easier for developers to get these projects approved,or cheaper to achieve the development,and they have been effective to date in spurring more redevelopment of underp

64、erforming offices.As more cities roll out similar policies and office valuations remain attractive for large capital expenditures,2025 is expected to see continued growth in office inventory removals.However,the runway for additional growth is retreatingas the best candidates for conversion and rede

65、velopment are removed from the market,and office demand consolidates in remaining buildings,upgrading assets to remain offices may become a more dominant strategy in 2025 or 2026.Source:JLL ResearchNote:Includes buildings above 50,000 s.f.RBA.Demolition=tear-down of existing office building with no

66、imminent plans for new development.Conversion=change in the use of all or a portion of the asset,while retaining all or a portion of existing structure.Redevelopment=capital improvement project which changes the use of a site by demolition and ground-up new development.Non-office redevelopment exclu

67、des office demolitions replaced with new traditional office ground-up development.13U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4While the easing market continues to improve,the capital markets recovery has been more methodical.Overall office investment volume increased by roughly 30%YoY,but a large portion wa

68、s driven by portfolio sales or office alternatives(e.g.life science,medical office,data center).Excluding those trades,single-asset traditional office sales increased by only 10%YoY,and matched 2010 levels of liquidity.Although the Federal Reserve has begun to cut policy rates,longer-term rates like

69、 the 10-year treasury that often form the benchmark of office loans have expanded in recent months in anticipation of rebounding inflation potentially derailing additional monetary easing.While sales have yet to show a major acceleration,there is some evidence that owners are investing in their port

70、folios in other ways.News article mentions have reached their highest level since March 2017 in recent months,and open-ended diversified core funds capitalRate cutsdrivingsome improvement in liquidity,but capital markets recovery is unfoldingslowly$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$1602009201120132015201720

71、1920212023Transaction volume(billions$US)Q4Q3Q2Q1expenditure reporting shows more capex deployed on building improvements in the last 12 months than any period on record other than Q2 2019 Q1 2020.The distress pipeline has not yet shown meaningfulsigns of a plateau in the near term.Office CMBS delin

72、quency rates rose more than 250 bps since Q3,the sharpest increase in recent years as asset valuations remain under extreme pressure.Distress-driven transactions were more frequent in 2024 and appear to be slated to grow in 2025,but strategies from new ownership may begin to evolve.To date,many of t

73、he short sales or foreclosure sales occurring with distressed office assets are planned conversions or redevelopmentsas high-end supply pressures mount for the office sector,more of these buyers may consider repositioning the building as an upgraded office,helping to offset those pressures.0%2%4%6%8

74、%10%12%14%16%Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Special ServicingDelinquentLeft:Historical office sales volume;Right:Office CMBS delinquency and special servicing ratesSource:JLL Research,Real Capital Analytics,Trepp78%of Fortune 100 employees work for hybrid emp

75、loyers14U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q421%of Fortune 100 employees work for fully in-office employers1%of Fortune 100 employees work at fully remote employers3.4 daysAverage requirement for Fortune 100 employees in January 2025.Source:JLL ResearchThe broader secular narrative surrounding the offi

76、ce sector continues to support a robust recovery into the next cycle.At the close of the year,the vast majority of large employers have established office attendance requirements.In the Fortune 100,21%of employees are required to attend the office five days per week,74%have hybrid policies requiring

77、 1 to 4 days per week,4%have other variations of hybrid that are team-dependent or based around core weeks,and just 1%of employees are fully remote.Notable announcements included AT&T and the Washington Post shifting from three days to five days,and Starbucks announcing stronger enforcement in 2025.

78、Based on executive sentiment and related announcements in the past year,more companies are expected to gradually establish attendance requirements or incrementally increase them until office attendance largely resembles pre-pandemic norms,eventually settling on an average requirement of 3.5 to 4.0 d

79、ays.There will remain a small share of employers across various industries who will position themselves as remote-first and continue to offer that optionality,and most organizations will also adopt small shares of remote work as a tool for inclusion and access to out-of-market labor,but importantly

80、most workers who were in office-based roles before the pandemic will eventually transition back to pre-pandemic norms with slightly enhanced flexibility.Evolution in Fortune 100 office attendance policiesSource:JLL ResearchHybrid(days per week)74%Full Office21%Full Remote1%Hybrid(other)4%Q4 2024Hybr

81、id(days per week)48%Full Office2%Full Remote30%Hybrid(other)20%Q1 202215U.S.Office Market Dynamics|2024 Q4Outlook:Record vacancy will give way to increasing supply constraints in 2025The fourth quarter was the culmination of a strong year of progress in stabilizing the U.S.office market,but pressure

82、s remain.Leasing activity may experience some choppiness in the first half of the year amid a volatile policy outlook,but tenant requirement volume continues to trend upwards and larger users are becoming more active.While the growth rate will slow in 2025,leasing volume is expected to grow by nearl

83、y 10%YoY.Leasing strategies will continue to skew towards renewals as newer availabilities disappear,and rent growth will shift in the coming yearsdriven less by high-end new deliveries increasing rents at the top of the market,and more by repositioned or upgraded buildings that are raising rates to

84、 levels competitive with what new supply has established in recent years.A lack of high-quality options,whether in new or repositioned properties,may slow the levels of transaction activity in some markets.Two consecutive quarters of meaningful reductions in availability are creating more certainty

85、that vacancy rates will decline in 2025,likely by the first or second quarter of the year.Net absorption may fluctuate during the first half of the year but is positioned to improve considerably in 2025 and reach marginally positive totals for the full year.Despite the improvement of occupier market

86、s in the past year,tenants are ultimately depending on improved capital flows to alleviate some of the pressures in the market.Most markets remain undersupplied with well-amenitized,high-quality workspaces,despite high vacancy levels in commodity office space.Improvements in liquidity will allow sui

87、table assets to transfer to new ownership that is positioned to deploy capital to upgrade the property and help fill the supply gap that is widening amid the lack of development Research authors16Jacob RowdenSenior ManagerUnited States Office RResearch at JLLJLLs research team delivers intelligence,

88、analysis and insight through market leading reports and services that illuminate todays commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrows challenges and opportunities.Our more than 550 global research professionals track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in

89、 over 60 countries,producing unrivalled local and global perspectives.Our research and expertise,fueled by real time information and innovative thinking around the world,creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions.About JLLFor ov

90、er 200 years,JLL(NYSE:JLL),a leading global commercial real estate and investment management company,has helped clients buy,build,occupy,manage and invest in a variety of commercial,industrial,hotel,residential and retail properties.A Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$20.9 billion and opera

91、tions in over 80 countries around the world,our more than 105,000 employees bring the power of a global platform combined with local expertise.Driven by our purpose to shape the future of real estate for a better world,we help our clients,people and communities SEE A BRIGHTER WAYSM.JLL is the brand

92、name,and a registered trademark,of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics discussed,which are inherent

93、ly unpredictable.It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable,but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete.Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to chang

94、e without notice.Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements.Advice we give to clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report.No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report.