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1、THE 2035 JAPAN REPORTPLUMMETING COSTS OF SOLAR,WIND,AND BATTERIES CAN ACCELERATE JAPANS CLEAN AND INDEPENDENT ELECTRICITY FUTURE AUTHORSKenji Shiraishi1,2,Won Young Park1,Nikit Abhyankar1,2,Umed Paliwal1,2,Nina Khanna1,Toru Morotomi3,Jiang Lin1,2*,and Amol Phadke1,2*1 Lawrence Berkeley National Labo

2、ratory2 University of California,Berkeley3 Kyoto University*corresponding author LBNL-2001526ABSTRACTJapan faces a significant energy security risk as it imports nearly all of the fuel used in its power sector,with clean electricity accounting for only 24%of the total.This study shows that,due to th

3、e decreasing costs of solar,wind(especially offshore),and battery technology,Japan can achieve a 90%clean electricity share by 2035.This would also result in a 6%reduction in electricity costs,nearly eliminate dependence on imported LNG and coal,as well as dramatically reduce power sector emissions.

4、Additionally,the study finds that Japans power grid will remain dependable without the need for new gas capacity or coal generation.To take advantage of these significant economic,environmental,and energy security benefits,strong policies such as a 90%clean electricity target by 2035 and correspondi

5、ng renewable deployment goals are required.DISCLAIMERWhile this document is believed to contain correct information,neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof,nor The Regents of the University of California,nor any of their employees,makes any warranty,express or implied,or assumes

6、any legal responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,apparatus,product,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Reference herein to any specific commercial product,process,or service by its trade name,trademark,manuf

7、acturer,or otherwise,does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation,or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof,or The Regents of the University of California.The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those o

8、f the United States Government or any agency thereof,or The Regents of the University of California.Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is an equal opportunity employer.COPYRIGHT NOTICEThis manuscript has been authored by authors at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory under Contra

9、ct No.DE-AC02-05CH11231 with the U.S.Department of Energy.The U.S.Government retains,and the publisher,by accepting the article for publication,acknowledges,that the U.S.Government retains a non-exclusive,paid-up,irrevocable,worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manusc

10、ript,or allow others to do so,for U.S.Government purposes.TECHNICAL REVIEW COMMITTEE Below are the members of the technical review committee.The committee provided input and guidance related to study design and evaluation,but the contents and conclusions of the report,including any errors and omissi

11、ons,are the sole responsibility of the authors.Committee member affiliations in no way imply that those organizations support or endorse this work in any way.Takamura,Yukari|University of TokyoKomiyama,Ryoichi|University of TokyoNagata,Tetsuro|Kyoto UniversitySakurai,Keiichiro|National Institute of

12、Advanced Industrial Science and TechnologyKurosaki,Miho|Kamakura Sustainability Institute Independent AnalystACKNOWLEDGEMENTSFunding for this report was provided by Climate Imperative Foundation.The following people provided invaluable technical support,input,review,and assistance in making this rep

13、ort possible:Kimiko Hirata and Chisaki Watanabe of Climate IntegrateJames Hyungkwan Kim of Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryYoh Yasuda of Kyoto UniversityAnya Breitenbach of Forge&Foundry StrategicJin Kato of Japan Wind Power AssociationTakeaki Masukawa and Kanzo Sugimoto of Japan Photovoltaic E

14、nergy Association Annie Dore of Beespring DesignsTABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 INTRODUCTION 102 METHODS AND DATA SUMMARY 13 2.1 Policy Scenario 13 2.2 Modeling Tools and Approach 15 2.3 Key Modeling Input 17 2.4 Sensitivity Analysis 223 KEY FINDINGS 24 3.1 Japans 90%Clean ENERGY 24 Grid Can

15、Dependably Meet Electricity Demand with Large Additions of RE and Energy Storage 3.2 Clean Energy Deployment 32 Can Reduce Wholesale Electricity Costs By 6%3.3 90%Clean Energy Deloyment 36 Can Reduce Fossil Fuel Import Costs By 85%,Bolstering Japans Energy Security 3.4 Scaling-Up Renewables to 37 Ac

16、hieve a 90%Clean Energy Grid Is Feasible 3.5 Clean Energy Can Cut CO2 40 Emissions By 92%,Providing Significant Environmental Benefits 4 CAVEATS AND FUTURE WORK 425 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY 43 INSIGHTS 5.1 Key Conclusions 43 5.2 Possible Future Actions 44References 50APPENDIX A|Modeling Approach 54APP

17、ENDIX B|Modeling Inputs 56APPENDIX C|Solar and Wind Profiles 60APPENDIX D|Carbon Price Sensitivity 67APPENDIX E|Regional Results of 69 Base Scenario APPENDIX F|Sensitivity Analysis 71EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The global energy crisis poses critical challenges for the Japanese people and their economy.The co

18、untry depends on foreign fossil fuel imports for about 90%of its primary energy consumption.At the same time,technological advancements and dramatic reductions in solar,wind,and battery storage costs present new opportunities to make clean electricity generation more affordable,while reducing emissi

19、ons and better positioning the country to meet its 2050 goal of carbon neutrality.The most important strategy for decarbonization is establishing clean energy sources to feed the grid and substantially increase its supply Japans electricity without using fossil fuels.These clean energy options inclu

20、de primarily solar-and wind-based renewable energy(RE),as well as smaller amounts of power generated by nuclear and natural gas plants.Generation from any resource that does not produce direct carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions is considered clean energy in this analysis,including generation from solar,wi

21、nd,hydropower,biomass,geothermal,hydrogen,and nuclear sources.Japans near-term goal is to transition 59%of electricity generation to clean energy sources by Fiscal Year(FY)2030,compared to the 24%of electricity supplied by these sources in FY 2019.This study examines the factors involved in hitting

22、cost,dependability,and emissions targets,while making even greater cuts in fossil fuel used for electricity generation by 2035.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|1The study addresses three vital questions:What effect will recent declines in wind,solar,and battery storage costs have on the pace and scale of renew

23、able resource development?What clean energy goals are technically and economically feasible,given the inherent uncertainties such as electricity demand growth,fossil fuel prices,and RE and energy storage costs?How can a faster transition to clean energy deliver not only environmental and economic be

24、nefits,but also reduce security risks related to dependence on imported fossil fuels?Using detailed state-of-the-art capacity expansion and hourly dispatch models to explore one core Clean Energy policy scenario(referred to throughout this report as the“Clean Energy”scenario),researchers examined it

25、s potential impact on Japan in the 2020 through 2035 time frame.This core Clean Energy Scenario evaluates transition from Japans non-fossil electricity generation goal for 2030 to a 90%clean generation electric system by 2035.The study also applied multiple sensitivity analyses to this Clean Energy

26、Scenario,including high and low renewable energy and storage costs;high fossil fuel prices(2022 levels);high levels of electrification;and the extended lifetime of nuclear generators.The Clean Energy Scenario limits annual deployment of clean energy generation to that needed to exceed Japanese gover

27、nment goal of non-fossil energy commanding a 59%share of electricity generation by 2030,and a 90%share by 2035.Research findings show that this share of clean energy deployment can be achievable,dependable,and cost effective.Rapid increases in renewable energy generation,in tandem with growth in ele

28、ctrification of technologies,show promise to accelerate progress toward Japans carbon neutrality goals and combat climate change.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|2KEY FINDINGSTable ES-1 shows the reports findings at a glance,and the following discussion expands on these findings.TABLE ES1.Japans Power System C

29、haracteristics by Case Modeled in the ReportCURRENT GRID(2023)90%CLEAN(2035)Highly Decarbonized GridDependable GridElectricity Cost ReductionsFeasible Scale-UpEnvironmental SavingsEnergy IndependenceSTRONG POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO CREATE A 90%CLEAN GRID BY 2035The 90%Clean Grid(Clean Energy Scenario

30、)assumes strong policies drive 90%clean electricity by 2035.Institutional,market,and regulatory changes needed to facilitate the rapid transformation to a 90%clean power sector in Japan.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|3JAPANS 90%CLEAN GRID IS DEPENDABLE WITHOUT COAL GENERATION OR NEW NATURAL GAS PLANTSThere h

31、as been longstanding debate about whether Japan could dependably operate electricity systems with high shares of variable RE(VRE).The study finds that a 90%clean energy grid that features accelerated solar and wind capacity additions,new battery storage,and new interregional transmission infrastruct

32、ure can be combined with a small percentage of the existing fossil fuel-based generation capacity to dependably meet Japans electricity demand,while maintaining planning reserve margin and operating reserves.An addition of 116 gigawatt hours(GWh;29 gigawatts for 4 hours)of battery storage and 11.8 g

33、igawatts(GW)of new interregional transmission lines,coupled with existing flexible methods of generation(dispatchable hydropower,pumped hydropower,and natural gas),can cost-effectively balance operation of a 90%clean energy grid,even during periods of low RE generation and/or high demand.In the Clea

34、n Energy Scenario,RE generated mainly from solar photovoltaic(PV)and wind sources totals 70%of annual electricity generation by 2035.Nuclear power and natural gas-fired power account for 20%and 10%of electricity generated,respectively.All existing coal plants,which generated 32%of the total electric

35、ity supply in FY 2019,are phased out by 2035,and no new fossil fuel-powered plants are built.TOTAL CAPACITY(GW)GENERATION(TWh/YEAR)50040030020010001,000750500250020202025203020352020202520302035 Battery Storage Pumped Hydro HydroWind Offshore Wind Fixed Offshore Wind Float Residential PV Utility/Com

36、mercial PVGeothermal BiomassHydrogen NuclearLNGCoalOilFIGURE ES1.Generation Energy Mix and Total Installed Capacity between 2020 and 2035,Clean Energy Scenario10%3676132251924232327292583220%1%1%23%4%8%10%8%10%6%GENERATION ENERGY MIXTOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITYTHE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|4ELECTRICITY COSTS FR

37、OM THE 90%CLEAN GRID ARE LOWER THAN TODAYS COSTSIn the Clean Energy Scenario,RE coupled with enhanced energy storage and interregional transmission lines make it possible to displace a significant amount of generation from existing coal and natural gas plants,while maintaining grid dependability and

38、 decreasing wholesale electricity costs.The incremental cost of developing new solar and wind plants,battery storage,and transmission infrastructure in the Clean Energy Scenario is smaller than the fossil fuel,operation and maintenance(O&M),and fixed costs found in running todays typical fossil fuel

39、-fired plants(Figure ES2).This suggests that more rapid deployment of renewable generation,increasing by an average of 10 GW per year between 2020 and 2035,would actually reduce average wholesale electricity costs by 6%from the 2020 level.Wholesale electricity costs include the cost of generation an

40、d storage,plus incremental transmission investments.If social costs of carbon(SCC)is included,wholesale electricity costs are about 36%lower in 2035 under the Clean Energy Scenario than they are in 2020,assuming 12,980 JPY/ton of CO2($118/t-CO2)at 2.5%discount rate from the latest study(Rennert et a

41、l.,2022).All scenarios in this study include the current level of Global Warming Countermeasure Tax,289 JPY/t-CO2($2.6/t-CO2),not the SCC presented here.Retaining natural gas-fired power plants helps balancing seasonal and cross-day load variation against solar and wind generation,reducing the neces

42、sity of long-duration energy storage and further renewable plant buildout.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|5AVERAGE COST OF GENERATION(JPY/KWh)15105020202020203020302025202520352035W/O SCCW SCCFIGURE ES2.Wholesale Electricity Costs with and without Social Costs of Carbon(SCC)for the Clean Energy Scenario,betwe

43、en 2020 and 2035(2020 JPY)85%REDUCED FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS AND A 90%CLEAN ENERGY GRID CAN SIGNIFICANTLY BOLSTER JAPANS ENERGY SECURITY Under the Clean Energy scenario,imported coal and natural gas costs would decrease by 85%,from 3.9 trillion JPY in 2020 to 0.59 trillion JPY in 2035.The decline in imp

44、orted coal and natural gas costs would be even greater over time under the high fuel cost sensitivity scenario(set at the 2022 cost levels),compared to the base fuel costs used in the Clean Energy Scenario.Not only would the 90%clean energy grid translate into lower electric bills.By maximizing Japa

45、ns use of domestic renewable resources,it would significantly decrease the nations heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels.In turn,this would bolster Japans energy security,insulating consumers and the economy from skyrocketing international fossil fuel prices.SCALING-UP RENEWABLES TO ACHIEVE THE

46、90%CLEAN ENERGY GRID IS FEASIBLEUnder the 90%Clean Energy Scenario,the combined capacity of all RE sources rise from 90 GW in 2020 to 188 GW in 2030 and 254 GW in 2035(Figure ES1).In particular,accelerated wind and solar capacity growth makes the 90%clean energy grid feasible.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|6

47、On average,an additional 10 GW of RE need to be brought on-line each year(from 2020 to 2035).This annual increase,comparable to Japans single-year renewable buildout record of 9.7 GW(FY 2015),is challenging but feasible(Figure ES3).Solar power additions are dominant in 2020s,while offshore winds con

48、tinued technology cost declines and high capacity factors make it the dominant growth area in the 2030s.This shift to clean energy will require attention to rapidly break down institutional,market,and regulatory barriers,along with swift advancements in battery storage and interregional transmission

49、 lines to balance VRE generation against loads.AVERAGE ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITION(GW/YEAR)151050FY 2014-FY 2019(HISTORICAL)Y2020-Y2025Y2026-Y2030Y2031-Y2035Wind Offshore Wind Fixed Offshore Wind FloatResidential PV Utility/Commercial PVOther REJAPANS SINGLE YEAR RE DEPLOYMENT RECORD(9.7 GW IN FY2015)F

50、IGURE ES3.Average Annual Renewable Capacity Additions by Periods,Clean Energy ScenarioCLEAN ENERGY CAN CUT ELECTRICITY SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS BY 92%Generating 90%of electricity from clean energy by 2035 would significantly cut carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions,resulting in important environmental benefits.

51、By 2035,the Clean Energy Scenario was shown to potentially reduce total electricity sector CO2 emissions by 92%compared to 2020 levels.The reductions of 345 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2035 is equal to nearly 30%of Japans total CO2 emissions in FY 2019.As a result,the emission intensity of elec

52、tricity generation drops by 91%from 404 kilograms(kg)-CO2/kilowatt hour(kWh)in 2020 to 36 kg-CO2/kWh in 2035.The extremely low emission intensity supports deeper decarbonization of other sectors,such as electrified transportation,heating,and more.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|7It also reduces exposure to fi

53、ne particulate matter(PM2.5),sulfur dioxide(SO2),nitrogen oxide(NOx),and heavy metals(e.g.,mercury,cadmium,arsenic,chromium,and beryllium)emitted by fossil fuel-burning power plants.This could deliver significant health benefits,potentially extending lifespan and reducing the societal costs of medic

54、al care.REACHING COST-EFFECTIVE LEVELS OF CLEAN ENERGY GENERATION WILL REQUIRE OVERCOMING POLICY,MARKET,AND LAND-USE BARRIERSA rapid and cost-effective transition to the 90%clean energy grid will require integrated,sustained policy support to overcome institutional,market,and regulatory barriers.The

55、 share of electricity generated from RE sources in the Clean Energy Scenario begins to accelerate in the 2020-2035 time period,suggesting that policy and regulatory changes to speed up deployment should begin sooner rather than later.The recommendations outlined below are intended to inform debate o

56、n public and corporate policies to address the pressing energy and climate crisis with stable business models,low integration costs,dependable systems,and minimal land-use impacts.Establishing Medium-Term Policy Targets(Beyond 2030)Set medium-term targets for renewable generation and coal phaseout i

57、n 2035 and beyond to reduce policy and market uncertainties Create coherent policy packages to enable the medium-term policy targets including research,development,and demonstration(RD&D)and carbon pricingAccelerating RE Deployment and Coal-Fired Power Phaseout By Mitigating Environmental Externalit

58、ies Consolidate feed-in tariffs,including feed-in premiums,and auctions,to accelerate renewable deployment Increase the price of carbon to accelerate coal-fired power phaseout Invest part of the carbon revenues in RD&D related to innovations needed to create a zero-carbon gridLowering Institutional

59、and Societal Barriers to Rapid RE Deployment Establish qualified renewable energy zones(REZs)with suitable topography and land-use designations to avoid delays in permitting and deployment THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|8 Integrate the zoning process in transmission planning Involve stakeholders at early sta

60、ges of planning to cultivate public input and acceptance Pursuing a Just Energy Transition through Targeted Assistance Policies Mitigate the societal and economic impacts of coal phaseout with transition assistance programs for communities and businesses Use carbon revenues to reimburse households a

61、nd businesses for part of their utility expenditures,reducing the tax burdenEnsuring System Dependability,Enhancing Operational Flexibility,and Boosting Energy Efficiency Create markets and profitable business models for flexible resources including energy storage,demand-side management and measures

62、,and flexible generation Drive investments in cost-effective energy efficiency improvement through standard setting or adoption of fiscal incentivesThrough the support of these policies,swift decarbonization of Japans electricity system would make it possible to more quickly cut emissions related to

63、 faster and more widespread electrification of other sectors,reducing CO2 emissions and smoothing the countrys path to a carbon-neutral economy by 2050.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|91INTRODUCTION Japan,the worlds third-largest economy,is facing a pressing series of related energy-related dilemmas in the wa

64、ke of the Russian invasion of Ukraine:simultaneously ensuring energy affordability and energy security,while making the deep cuts in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions needed to meet the nations climate change goals.These targets include shifting electricity generation to 59%clean energy sources by 2035 a

65、nd achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 in support of Japans commitment to the global goal of limiting the average temperature increase to 1.5C.As of 2020,only 11.2%of Japans primary energy was supplied by domestic resources(GoJ,2021b),exposing the nations people and economy to the high volatility of

66、 international fuel prices(Figure 1).Liquified natural gas(LNG)and coal power plants(typically fueled with coal N.E.S.,a common type of coal used in Japan)still account for roughly 80%of the nations electricity generation.Spikes in international energy prices led to Japans 2022 wholesale electricity

67、 price of 22.6 Yen(JPY)/kWh being double that of the average in the preceding 10 years(11.5 JPY/kWh from 2012-2021).THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|10Japan recently established a national target of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050(GoJ,2021a).This builds on the governments earlier nationally determined commitmen

68、t(NDC)to reduce GHG emission levels from 26%to 46%between 2013 and 2030,which was made as part of the Paris Agreement(GoJ,2021d;GoJ,2021e).Meeting these ambitious 2030 and 2050 national and international climate change commitments will require accelerated deployment of renewable energy(RE)and early

69、phaseout of coal-powered electricity generation plants.IMPORT(TRILLION JPY)CIF PRICE(JPY/GJ)12.510.07.55.02.50.04,0003,0002,0001,000019901990201020102000200020202020 Coal N.E.S.LNG Coal N.E.S.LNGFIGURE 1.CIF(Cost,Insurance,and Freight)Price and Annual Import of Coal N.E.S.and LNG in Japan(nominal)No

70、te:N.E.S.is a common type of coal for electricity generationSkyrocketing fossil fuel prices,global constraints on fossil fuel supplies,and ambitious climate change targets create strong motivation for shifting to clean energy.As seen in U.S.,Indian,and Chinese analyses,recent advancements and dramat

71、ic cost reductions in solar,wind,and battery storage technologies create new opportunities to improve energy security,maximizing the use of domestic energy resources while reducing emissions and costs related to electricity generation(Bistline et al.,2022;Abhyankar et al.,2021,2022;Phadke et al.,202

72、0).The economic case to tackle energy challenges with accelerated deployment of clean energy is particularly strong in fuel-resource-poor countries such as Japan.Given that global carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5C and avoid catastrophic climate impacts(IPCC,2018),it is

73、 imperative that Japan accelerates its transition to a clean energy grid.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|11This report examines the technical feasibility,costs,and implications of Japan increasing the share of electricity generated from clean(non-fossil)energy to 90%by 2035.The report aims to answer three key

74、 questions:What effect will recent declines in wind,solar,and battery storage costs have on the pace and scale of renewable resource development?What clean energy goals are technically and economically feasible,given the inherent uncertainties including in electricity demand growth,fossil fuel price

75、s,and RE and energy storage costs?How can a faster transition to clean energy deliver not only environmental and economic benefits,but also reduce security risks related to dependence on imported fossil fuels?The electricity sector will play a pivotal role in meeting Japans environmental goals.Gener

76、ation of a larger share of electricity from non-fossil sources,combined with electrification of the transportation,industrial,and building sectors,can result in significant emissions reductions.This report draws from and expands upon a growing body of literature and analysis that explore high-renewa

77、ble and low-carbon power systems around the world.Several recent studies assessed the operational and economic impacts of a high share of VRE on Japans power grid in the near term(e.g.Komiyama and Fujii,2014,Komiyama and Fujii,2017,Komiyama and Fujii,2019,Komiyama and Fujii,2021)and in 2050(e.g.Mats

78、uo et al.,2018;Matsuo et al.,2020).However,most of the recent studies did not consider the recent dramatic decline in renewable energy and battery storage costs,allowed interregional transmission expansions,or explored the detailed pathways for deep decarbonization of power systems to a targeted yea

79、r,which is often 2050.Our study attempts to build on the existing literature and address some of these gaps by(a)developing a spatially and temporally resolved capacity expansion and economic dispatch model using an industry standard platform,PLEXOS,that assesses the least cost resource mix at the n

80、ational level,with interregional transmission requirement,and power plant level hourly economic dispatch,(b)using the latest renewable energy and storage cost estimates and trends,informed by prices observed in the market and expert consultations,and(c)explore the opportunities for large CO2 reducti

81、ons to happen more rapidly while bolstering Japans energy security.The report is organized into the following sections:Section 2 provides an overview of methods used in the electricity and emissions analyses.Section 3 describes results.Section 4 summarizes key conclusions,provides policy recommendat

82、ions,and outlines priority areas for future research.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|122METHODS AND DATA SUMMARY This study is based on intensive scenario building,cost data development,and power system modeling using detailed,best-available data inputs,and state-of-the-art modeling tools.The analysis combine

83、s detailed load,wind,and solar profiles with projections for RE,and energy storage costs.Generation from any resource that does not produce direct CO2 emissions is considered to be clean energy in this analysis,including generation from solar,wind,hydropower,biomass,hydrogen,and nuclear sources.Mode

84、ls are based on a detailed representation of Japans electricity system,including hourly transmission constraints,region-specific wind and solar profiles,and recent RE and energy storage cost projections.Analyses found in this report use capacity expansion and hourly dispatch models developed in PLEX

85、OS(an industry standard capacity expansion and production cost modeling platform)to analyze the least-cost(optimal)combination of generation,storage,and interregional transmission strategies on an annual basis.Electricity demand projections are based on government projections and scenarios described

86、 in the 6th Strategic Energy Plan of Japan(GoJ,2021e)This section provides a brief overview of the studys core policy scenario,key inputs and assumptions,modeling tools and approaches,and sensitivity analyses.The study appendices include detailed descriptions of methods and inputs used for modeling

87、and the development of hourly load,wind,and solar profiles.2.1 POLICY SCENARIOThe analysis used in this study examines one core scenario.The Clean Energy Scenario is consistent with current Japanese policy goals for 2030 and G7s THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|13commitment to fully or predominantly decarboniz

88、ing electricity by 2035,and explores whether further expansion of clean energy deployment through 2035 is achievable,dependable,and cost-effective.This scenario is based on clean(non-fossil)energy resources being used to generate a 90%share of Japans electricity by 2035.Sensitivity analyses explore

89、variations on the Clean Energy Scenario.Table 1 benchmarks the Clean Energy Scenario assumptions against national 2030 and 2035 goals.This studys assumptions related to coal generation,RE generation and capacity,and the share of electricity generated from non-fossil energy(including RE)sources inclu

90、de:Coal generation is forced to phase out by 2035.The amount of new RE generation that can be added in any given year must exceed the amount needed to meet current policy targets for 2030.After 2030,annual targets for generation of electricity from clean energy sources must be met.The total amount o

91、f electricity generated is calculated through least-cost optimization,subject to limits such as 2030 and 2035 clean energy generation targets,and nuclear power regulatory policy targets.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|14TABLE 1.Policy Scenario Assumptions Benchmarked Against National GoalsNATIONAL GOALSCLEAN

92、ENERGY SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONSReference policies or plans New 2030 U.N.NDC Target 6th Strategic Energy Plan Japan 2050 Carbon Neutrality Goal G7 pledge to achieve“fully or predominantly decarbonized”electricity by 2035Coal generation G7 pledge to phase out unabated coal by 2035 19%by 2030 (6th Strategi

93、c Energy Plan)All plants phased out by 2035RE generation capacity additions 36%-38%by 2030-PV:103.5 GW-117.6 GW -Wind:23.6 GW Onshore 17.9 GW Offshore 5.7 GW At least 36%by 2030 Clean (non-fossil)energy generation share 59%by 2030-RE 36-38%-Nuclear 20%-22%-Hydrogen/Ammonia 1%59%in 2030 90%in 2035 Li

94、near increase between 2030 and 2035Nuclear restart All operatable plants restart 20-year extension of lifetime 25 GW restart(restart year depends on individual plants)No addition of new nuclear plants Hydrogen or ammonia 1%in 20301%in 2030GW=gigawatts;PV=photovoltaic2.2 MODELING TOOLS AND APPROACHTh

95、e electricity system analysis was conducted using PLEXOS,a modeling platform widely used for industry-standard power systems analysis.Researchers used a two-stage modeling approach.First,a capacity expansion model was used to develop least-cost generation,storage,and interregional transmission portf

96、olios each year from 2020 to 2035 for core and sensitivity scenario.Then,a production cost model was used to examine 2035 operating costs,emissions,and dependability for 8,760 hours based on THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|15DC power flows;it does not consider the more complex dynamics of AC power systems.Gen

97、eration,transmission,and storage investments and operations are optimized to achieve the 2030 generation mix based on the 6th Strategic Energy Plan of Japan and 90%clean energy generation with the phaseout of coal-fired plants by 2035.Models included generation resources,generation constraints,unit

98、commitments,and transmission constraints(available transfer capacity)for 10 nodes connected by 23 gigawatts(GW)of interregional transmission corridors in 2020(Figure 2).The model excludes generators that are not dispatched by the transmission&distribution companies(i.e.,off-grid generators are exclu

99、ded).Analysis assumed that the electricity system was balanced in every hour,and the 10%planning reserve margin in the capacity expansion model and three types of operational reserves in the production cost model were managed at a regional grid scale(for details,see Appendix B),enabling efficient re

100、source sharing among regions.1.0 GW1.02.0 GW2.04.0 GW4.06.0 GWHOKKAIDOHOKURIKUKANSAICHUGOKUKYUSHUKYUSHUOKINAWASHIKOKUCHUBUTOKYOTOHOKUFIGURE 2.Generation Resources and Transmission Network Included in the Modeling in 2020 THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|162.3 KEY MODELING INPUTElectricity DemandGrowth in Japan

101、s electricity demand between now and 2035 is highly uncertain.It will depend on the structure and pace of growth or decline in the economy,the population,and the level of electrification in the transportation,industry,and buildings sectors.Electricity demand is projected to decline by 0.8%every year

102、 through 2030 in line with the sixth Strategic Energy Plan based on anticipated energy efficiency improvements and population decline(GoJ,2021d).Japans expected population drop is significant,from 125.3 million people in 2020 to 112.2 million in 2035(GoJ,2022b).Based on these projections,researchers

103、 assume electricity demand will decrease between 2020 and 2030,and then remain stable from 2030 through 2035(see Figure 3).This study excludes generators that are not dispatched by the transmission&distribution companies(i.e.,off-grid generators are excluded).This study also considers increased elec

104、trification of the transportation,industry,and buildings sectors as part of the sensitivity analysis,where electricity demand is assumed to stay constant rather than decline after 2020.TWh/YEAR1,00080060040020002020203020252035FIGURE 3.National Electricity Demand Projection Used in Clean Energy Scen

105、arioTWh=terawatt hours.Transmission and distribution loss:4%THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|17Technology and Fuel Costs Extensive resource cost inputs included those for wind,solar,and battery storage technology,as well as coal and natural gas.The United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Annual

106、 Technology Base(ATB)provides projections of installed and fixed operation and maintenance(O&M)costs for onshore wind,offshore wind,solar photovoltaic(PV),and battery storage in the United States(NREL,2022).Plummeting costs for wind and solar energy have dramatically improved the prospects for rapid

107、,cost-effective decarbonization,leading to levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)projections for the ATB scenarios being revised downwards in almost every year between 2015 and 2019(Phadke et al.,2020).Projections of installed costs and fixed operations and maintenance(O&M)costs for generation,energy s

108、torage,and interregional transmission lines in Japan are primarily based on Japans cost data.For solar,wind,and battery cost projection,we combined Japans cost data,the 2022 ATB forecasts and industry consultations with necessary adjustment to reflect Japans country-specific factors.Given simultaneo

109、us technological advancements and future cost uncertainties,offshore wind and battery storage technology costs(low,base,and high price inputs for the core and sensitivity scenarios)in this study are based on 2020 Japanese costs(Advisory Committee,2021)and are assumed to converge with the U.S.costs p

110、rojected in NRELs advanced(“Low”in this report),moderate(“Base”),and conservative(“High”)ATB scenarios.Utility and commercial-scale solar uses ATBs commercial-scale solar projection due to the relatively small scale of non-residential solar PV projects in Japan.Onshore wind costs are based on the as

111、sumption that the capital costs converge to those of ATB estimates,while non-capital costs are held constant across the study period.Figure 4 summarizes the capital cost projections of solar,wind,and battery technologies.Grid connection costs of offshore wind are adjusted according to the proximity

112、between the offshore wind clusters and high voltage transmission lines.The technology costs of other technologies are summarized in Appendix B.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|18THOUSAND JPY/KWh(2020 JPY)50403020100BATTERY2020203020252035THOUSAND JPY/KW(2020 JPY)600500400300200100080060040020002001501005003002

113、001000OFFSHORE WINDOFFSHORE WINDFLOATSOLARWIND20202020203020302025202520352035 High Base LowFIGURE 4.Technology Cost Inputs for Solar PV,Onshore Wind,Offshore Wind,and 4-Hour Battery Storage 1 USD=110 JPY (an average of 2012-2021 exchange rates)Longer-term fuel price trends in Japan are highly uncer

114、tain.Coal and gas prices rose to record levels in 2011 and 2022(GoJ,2022b).The studys high fuel price sensitivity scenario bases Japanese fuel prices on the average from January to September 2022(GoJ,2022b).The base fuel price used for the core and additional sensitivity scenarios is based on the av

115、erage between July 2012 and December 2021(Figure 5).This study does not consider a low fuel price scenario,because future prices will not likely be lower than historical trends given global supply constraints.Because the study did not model intraregional transmission,the model,distribution-connected

116、,and transmission-connected resources look the same from an operational perspective.Data on land,incremental distribution,and transmission THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|19costs was not detailed enough to more meaningfully assess the tradeoffs between utility-scale and distributed resources.JPY/GJ2,0001,5001

117、,0005000LNGLNGNUCLEARNUCLEARBIOMASSBIOMASSCOALCOALBASEHIGHFIGURE 5.Fuel Price Inputs for Coal and Gas1 USD=110 JPY(an average of 2012-2021 exchange rates).GJ=gigajoules.Solar and Wind ProfilesFor this study,we estimated wind and solar resource potential and developed detailed solar and wind profiles

118、 for each region in Japan.The methodology can be divided into two parts.First part involves estimating the resource potential,i.e.,the maximum solar and wind capacity that can be installed in a region.We use average annual capacity factors from Global Wind and Solar Atlas and multiple exclusion crit

119、eria to estimate the potential.Exclusion criteria include elevation,slope,landcover,natural parks,defense areas,fishery zones and ocean depth.The second part involves developing detailed hourly generation profiles.We use meteorological data from reanalysis datasets and simulate site level wind and s

120、olar generation using NRELs System Advisor Model(SAM)Typical wind and solar farms are designed in SAM and hourly generation is estimated by passing meteorological data through it.We then use an aggregation algorithm to combine hourly generation from multiple sites in a region and create a representa

121、tive regional wind THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|20and solar resource profile.For offshore wind we develop multiple clusters for fixed and floating wind using the spatially constrained multivariate clustering algorithm.We then develop profiles for each of those clusters.Complete methodology and data sources

122、 are discussed in detail in Appendix C.Nuclear GenerationBecause factors other than economics often motivate operation and expansion of nuclear power facilities,this study bases nuclear generation capacity projections on policy targets,rather than on cost.As of 2022,10 nuclear power plants already r

123、estarted,while 7 and 10 nuclear power plants are approved for and under review for restart,respectively.It was assumed that all of the existing nuclear power plants that already applied for approval would resume operation by 2023(for already approved plants)and 2025(for plants under review)under the

124、 current aggressive nuclear restart policy.The base case also assumes every nuclear plant is granted 20-year operating permit extension.As a sensitivity,this study also included a scenario that conservatively assumes no 20-year extension is granted for any nuclear power plants,except for those alrea

125、dy granted extension.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|21Other AssumptionsTable 2 summarizes other assumptions used in this study.TABLE 2.Other AssumptionsPARAMETERASSUMPTIONSCoal retirementsThe retirement of existing coal-fired plants at the end of each of their 50-year lifetimes,decreasing the amount of coal

126、generation each year,until coal generation is completely phased out in 2035.Gas retirementsThe retirement of existing gas-fired plants at the end of each of their 50-year lifetimes.Nuclear extensionsThe retirement of existing nuclear plants at the end of each of their 60-year lifetimes including 20-

127、year extension in the base cases.Transmission expansionsA maximum 100%increase in existing individual transmission line capacity.Solar PV retirements and capacitiesThe retirement of solar PV plants at the end of each of their 30-year lifetimes and an average capacity factor(CF)of 17%.Wind turbine re

128、tirements and capacities The retirement of wind turbines at the end of each of their 30-year lifetimes and average CFs of 31%(onshore)and 44%(offshore).Maximum annual capacity expansionSolar PV and onshore wind capacity limited to the historical maximum for solar PV installations and twice as much a

129、s the historical maximum for onshore wind turbine installations(based on 2012-2020 data).2.4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSISThe analysis considered five sensitivities:“High RE and Storage Cost scenario”,“Low RE and Storage Cost scenario”),“High Fuel Cost scenario”,“Low Nuclear scenario”,and“High Electrificatio

130、n scenario”.These sensitivity cases differ only from the core Clean Energy Scenario by changing the assumptions for one key input parameter.Low RE and Storage Cost scenario and High RE and Storage Cost scenario use our cost projections based on the NREL ATB 2022 advanced and conservative cases,respe

131、ctively.The High Fuel Cost scenario applies the 2022 level fuel costs across the entire study period.The Low Nuclear scenario assumes no 20-year lifetime extension is granted,except for those that have already been granted the extension as of 2022.The High Electrification scenario assumes electricit

132、y demand stays constant during the study period.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|22For dependability,we conducted two types of sensitivity analyses.First,to test the system dependability during very high system stress,we simulated the hourly dispatch in the net peak load weeks with an unanticipated demand shoc

133、k(10%increase in demand in the highest 2035 summer and winter net load periods).Second,to examine the system dependability impact of the inter-annual variability in wind,solar,and hydropower generation,we also simulated the hourly operation of the Japans power system over 35,040 hours(each hour in 4

134、 weather years).THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|233KEY FINDINGSThis section highlights the key findings from this analysis.Results for the sensitivity analyses are integrated with these key findings.Additional details are provided in the appendices.3.1 JAPANS 90%CLEAN ENERGY GRID CAN DEPENDABLY MEET ELECTRICI

135、TY DEMAND WITH LARGE ADDITIONS OF RE AND ENERGY STORAGE There has been longstanding debate about whether Japan could dependably operate electricity systems with high shares of VRE.The study finds that a 90%clean energy grid that features accelerated solar and wind capacity additions,new battery stor

136、age,and augmented interregional transmission infrastructure can be combined with a small percentage of the existing fossil fuel-based generation and pumped hydro storage capacity to dependably meet Japans electricity demand without coal generation,while maintaining necessary planning reserve margin

137、and operating reserves.In the Clean Energy with base fuel price scenario,clean energy generation increases from 24%of total generation in 2020 to 59%in 2030.This mix will make it possible to meet 2030 NDC goals and eventually attain a clean energy generation share of 90%in 2035.The significant incre

138、ase in clean energy is mainly supplied by expanding the shares of energy generated by offshore and onshore wind(26%)and solar PV(27%)(Figure 6).Battery storage capacity grows to 1.5 GW in 2030 and 29 GW in 2035,to integrate more solar and wind generation.The steep increase in the battery storage dep

139、loyment rate in 2030 is dependent on two factors:Abundant existing pumped hydro storage provide sufficient energy storage in the 2020s Solar and wind generation accounting for a relatively small percentage of total generation in the 2020s(20%in 2025 and 30%in 2029)THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|24Natural gas

140、-fired power,generating the largest share of electricity(37%)in FY 2019,accounts for 10%of total generation in 2035.Retirement of each coal-fired plant as it reaches 50 years in service reduces the total capacity of these plants by about 45 GW from 2020 to 36 GW in 2035.All existing coal plants,gene

141、rating 32%of total electricity supply in FY 2019,are forced to phased out by 2035,and no new fossil fuel-powered plants are built.Although not in regular operation,prior to their 50-year retirement,the remaining coal-fired power plants provide planning reserve margin and operating reserves.Reservoir

142、 hydropower,natural gas,and energy storage also compensate for capacity shortfalls in extreme climate events such as historic heat wave.TOTAL CAPACITY(GW)GENERATION(TWh/YEAR)50040030020010001,000750500250020202025203020352020202520302035 Battery Storage Pumped Hydro HydroWind Offshore Wind Fixed Off

143、shore Wind Float Residential PV Utility/Commercial PVGeothermal BiomassHydrogen NuclearLNGCoalOilFIGURE 6.Generation Energy Mix and Total Installed Capacity between 2020 and 2035,Clean Energy Scenario10%3676132251924232327292583220%1%1%23%4%8%10%8%10%6%Researchers also conducted sensitivity analyses

144、 with different inputs and assumptions.The difference in generation mix and installed capacity of all scenarios from the Clean Energy Scenario is summarized in Figure 7.First,under the High Fuel Cost Scenario,solar and wind technologies deliver electricity at a price far cheaper than that produced w

145、ith coal and LNG.This results in an additional 35 GW of solar and wind capacity,19 GW of battery storage THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|25capacity,and 7 GW of interregional transmission lines by 2035(compared to the Clean Energy Scenario),leading to 94%clean energy in 2035.Second,the High RE and Storage Cost

146、 sensitivity scenario,with more transmission facilities and offshore wind plants and fewer solar and energy storage resources,deploys proportions of resources opposite those of the Low RE and Storage Cost sensitivity scenario.This trend is due to the relationship between battery storage and transmis

147、sion prices.When transmission is cheaper than battery storage,transmission is built to utilize wind resources in distant areas in northern part of Japan.On the other hand,when battery storage is cheaper than transmission construction,battery storage enables the deployment of solar PV near load cente

148、rs such as Tokyo,Nagoya,and Osaka.Third,the High Electrification scenario requires additional solar,wind,battery storage,and transmission capacity,as well as more frequent natural gas plant operation.Fourth,the Low Nuclear scenario suggests that the addition of 9 GW of solar,14 GW of offshore wind,1

149、7 GW of battery storage,and 11 GW of interregional transmission lines can complement retirement of 8 GW of nuclear capacity when plants reach 40 years of service by 2035.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|26CAPACITY DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO BASE CASE(GW)GENERATION DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO BASE CASE(TWh/YEAR)

150、7550250-25-5080400-40-80HIGH FUEL COSTHIGH FUEL COSTLOW RE AND STORAGE COSTLOW RE AND STORAGE COSTLOW NUCLEAR LOW NUCLEAR HIGH ELECTRIFI-CATIONHIGH ELECTRIFI-CATIONHIGH RE AND STORAGE COSTHIGH RE AND STORAGE COSTSCENARIOSCENARIO Battery Offshore Wind Fixed Offshore Wind Float Wind Utility/Commercial

151、 PV Nuclear Transmission LNG OthersFIGURE 7.Difference in Generation Mix and Total Installed Capacity in 2035 for All Sensitivity Scenarios When Compared to Clean Energy ScenarioTOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITYGENERATION ENERGY MIXThe studys dispatch results show that the optimal capacity mix can meet deman

152、d every hour of the year without loss of load in 10 regions,while abiding by technical constraints including operating reserves,ramp rates,and minimum generation levels.Figure 8 shows the average hourly system dispatch for all 12 months of 2035 in the Clean Energy Scenario.Throughout the year,energy

153、 storage(including new battery storage and existing pumped hydro)charges during the day and discharges at the times in the evening and morning,when solar PV does not generate electricity to balance the load and variable generation.Despite the addition of battery storage,about 9%of available renewabl

154、e energy must be curtailed annually,as shown in Figure 8.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|27GW150100500-50200150100500-5005 10 15 20 2505 10 15 20 2505 10 15 20 2505 10 15 20 2505 10 15 20 2505 10 15 20 25789101112123456 Curtailment Battery Discharging Pumped Hydro LNG Hydro Wind Offshore Wind Fixed Offshore W

155、ind Float Residential PV Utility/Commercial PV Geothermal Biomass Hydrogen Nuclear Coal Battery Charging Hydro Pumping Average Hourly LoadFIGURE 8.National System Average Hourly Dispatch in 2035 for 12 MonthsOn the other hand,natural gas plants that operate mostly in high net load(load minus the out

156、put from variable solar and wind RE sources,also known as“residual load”)winter and summer seasons are critical for balancing the grid.Figures 9 and 10 show net loads in the peak weeks of summer and winter,respectively.The summer net load peaks on August 7 at 8 p.m.,when solar generation quickly dro

157、ps to zero after sunset,and the system load is still high.The winter net load peaks on January 30 at 8 a.m.,when wind generation decreases,and solar generation does not yet start.In both cases,natural gas plants,hydro,and energy storage help balance the peaks.Even during the highest net load weeks i

158、n 2035,the RE share of overall generation is 59%in the summer and 72%in the winter,while the annual average share is 90%.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|28GW200150100500-50AUG 05AUG 07AUG 09AUG 11CurtailmentBattery DischargingPumped HydroLNGHydroWindOffshore Wind FixedOffshore Wind FloatResidential PVUtility/

159、Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenNuclearCoalBattery ChargingHydro PumpingHourly LoadFIGURE 9.National System Dispatch in the Highest Net Load Week of Summer 2035GW200150100500-50-100JAN 28JAN 30FEB 01FEB 03CurtailmentBattery DischargingPumped HydroLNGHydroWindOffshore Wind FixedOffshore Wind Fl

160、oatResidential PVUtility/Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenNuclearCoalBattery ChargingHydro PumpingHourly LoadFIGURE 10.National System Dispatch in the Highest Net Load Week of Winter 2035THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|29In addition,to further validate the optimal generation capacity needed to meet syste

161、m demand every hour,even during periods of low RE generation and/or high demand,researchers conducted two sensitivity analyses that simulate hourly operation of Japans power system:With extreme demand bumps in summer and winter For four weather years(35,040 hours,using the time-synchronized load dat

162、a and solar and wind generation data from 20172020)The first sensitivity analysis showed that with a 10%demand shock(extreme increase due to a historic heat wave or deep freeze),in which peak demand increases to from 153 GW to nearly 168 GW,the system still has adequate resources to meet electricity

163、 needs during the highest summer and winter net load weeks(Figures 11 and Figure 12).Coal power plants that have been reserved for such events briefly operate to support the unusual demand peak during this period.GW200150100500-50AUG 05AUG 07AUG 09AUG 11CurtailmentBattery DischargingPumped HydroLNGH

164、ydroWindOffshore Wind FixedOffshore Wind FloatResidential PVUtility/Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenNuclearCoalBattery ChargingHydro PumpingHourly LoadFIGURE 11.National System Dispatch in the Highest Net Load Week in Summer 2035,with a 10%Demand ShockTHE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|30GW3002001000-100JA

165、N 28JAN 30FEB 01FEB 03CurtailmentBattery DischargingPumped HydroLNGHydroWindOffshore Wind FixedOffshore Wind FloatResidential PVUtility/Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenNuclearCoalBattery ChargingHydro PumpingHourly LoadFIGURE 12.National System Dispatch in the Highest Net Load Week in Winter 2

166、035,with a 10%Demand ShockThe second sensitivity analysis with dispatch simulation showed that the optimal capacity mix could meet the electricity load of 10 regions for each hour across a span of four weather years(35,040 hours in all),while still abiding by technical constraints(see Appendix B for

167、 details).During the four weather years,the study finds significant seasonal(intrayear)variation in load and solar and wind generation,as shown in Figure 13.Daily loads peak twice in summer(August)and winter(January)months at 2,9793,195 GWh/day.(This and future metrics are based on a seven-day movin

168、g average.)Solar generation peaks in late MayJuly at 768818 GWh/day.Onshore and offshore wind generation peaks in the winter at 678766 GWh/day in January.The load hits the bottom in late April or early May at 1,7511,918 GWh/day(59%63%of its peak).Solar and wind generation decline the most in fall an

169、d winter(October through January)at 213316 GWh/day(26%41%of its peak).The next-lowest generation period for RE is in the summer(June through September),with solar at 4155 GWh/day(11%15%of its peak)and wind at 110177 GWh/day(14%26%of its peak.Natural gas plants play a critical role in balancing loads

170、 with the seasonal variability of RE at multiple timescales.Battery storage,pumped hydro,and natural gas plants play critical roles in daily and hourly balancing.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|31While the annual capacity factor of natural gas plants is 21%26%,the monthly summer capacity factor is as high as

171、51%.In the 2050-time horizon,long-duration energy storage such as hydrogen plus RE can replace the seasonal balancing function of natural gas plants(Mahmud et al.,2023)but existing natural gas plants can play a pivotal role in the short-and mid-term period,maintaining power system dependability at a

172、 relatively low cost.GWh/DAYJAN 2035JAN 2036JAN 2037JAN 2038JUL 2035JUL 2036JUL 2037JUL 2038JAN 20391,0007505002500SOLAROFFSHORE WIND1,0007505002500LNG1,2501,0007505002500LOAD4,0003,0002,0001,0000ONSHORE WIND5004003002001000Seven-day moving averagesFIGURE 13.Daily Load and Power System Dispatch of N

173、atural Gas and Variable Renewable Generation Over 4 Weather Years in the 90%Clean Case 3.2 CLEAN ENERGY DEPLOYMENT CAN REDUCE WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY COSTS BY 6%The Clean Energy Scenarios average wholesale electricity costs suggest that the 2035 policy goals for additions to renewable generation capac

174、ity can be cost-effective.Average wholesale electricity costs are lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean Energy Scenario than they are in 2020(Figure 14).In the Clean Energy Scenario,the average 2035 wholesale electricity cost(9.03 JPY/kWh)is 6%lower THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|32than the average 2020 average w

175、holesale cost(9.67 JPY/kWh)(Figure 15)under conservative fuel price assumptions based on 20122021 averages.If social costs of carbon(SCC)is included,wholesale electricity costs are about 36%lower in 2035 under the Clean Energy Scenario than they are in 2020,assuming 12,980 JPY/t-CO2($118/t-CO2)at 2.

176、5%discount rate from the latest study(Rennert et al.,2022).All scenarios in this study include the current level of Global Warming Countermeasure Tax,289 JPY/t-CO2($2.6/t-CO2),not the SCC presented here.Average wholesale electricity costs are total wholesale electricity costs divided by total genera

177、tion.Here,wholesale electricity costs include costs for installed capacity,fixed O&M,fuel for generation,energy storage,and incremental interregional transmission investments.Distribution costs and existing transmission costs are not included.TRILLION JPY/YEAR10.07.55.02.50.02020203020252035Transmis

178、sionBattery DischargingHydroWindOffshore Wind FixedOffshore Wind FloatResidential PVUtility/Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenNuclearLNGCoalOilFISCAL YEARFIGURE 14.Annual Wholesale Electricity Costs in 2020 JPY,Clean Energy ScenarioThe cost of electricity generated by RE sources depends less on

179、volatile fossil fuel prices and more on the capital costs(Figure 14).Given the lead time required for construction of power plants and transmission lines,proactive planning is essential to expedite the process.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|33AVERAGE WHOLESALE COSTS(JPY/KWh)1510502020202020302030202520252035

180、2035W/O SCCW SCCFIGURE 15.Average Wholesale Electricity Costs with and without Social Costs of Carbon(SCC)for the Clean Energy ScenarioIn the Clean Energy Scenario,RE coupled with enhanced energy storage and interregional transmission lines make it possible to displace a significant amount of genera

181、tion from existing coal and natural gas plants,while maintaining grid dependability and decreasing wholesale electricity costs.The incremental cost of developing new solar and wind plants,battery storage,and transmission infrastructure in the Clean Energy Scenario is smaller than the fossil fuel,ope

182、ration and maintenance(O&M),and fixed costs found in running todays typical fossil fuel-fired plants(Figure 16).THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|34TRILLION JPY/YEAR420-2-4-6INCREMENTAL COSTINCREMENTAL SAVINGSNET SAVINGSTransmissionBattery StorageHydroWindOffshore Wind FixedOffshore Wind FloatResidential PVUtil

183、ity/Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenNuclearOilCoalLNGFIGURE 16.Incremental Costs,Incremental Cost Savings,and Incremental Net Costs in the Clean Energy Scenario,between 2020 and 2035(in 2020 JPY)The sensitivity analysis shows that the 90%clean energy grid is affordable based on a number of ass

184、umptions as shown in Figure 17.With 2022-level fuel costs(High Fuel Costs Scenario)and replacement of most of current natural gas and all of coal plants with new renewables,the average wholesale costs can be significantly reduced by 31%between 2020 and 2035.In all the other scenarios with the base f

185、uel costs,the average wholesale costs of the 90%clean energy grid are stable within a range of-10%(Low RE and Storage Costs)and+0.6%(Low Nuclear).The sensitivity analyses show that average 2035 generation costs could increase by as much as 0.4%with high RE and storage costs,or decrease by as much as

186、 10%as a result of low RE and storage costs.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|35AVERAGE WHOLESALE COSTS(JPY/KWh)1510502020203020252035 Base High Fuel Cost scenario High RE and Storage Cost scenario Low RE and Storage Cost scenario High Electrification scenario Low Nuclear scenarioFIGURE 17.Average Wholesale Ele

187、ctricity Costs in 2020 JPY of All Scenarios3.3 90%CLEAN ENERGY DELOYMENT CAN REDUCE FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT COSTS BY 85%,BOLSTERING JAPANS ENERGY SECURITYUnder the 90%Clean Energy Scenario with base fuel prices,imported coal and natural gas costs would decrease by 85%,from 3.9 trillion JPY in 2020 to 0.5

188、9 trillion JPY in 2035(Figure 18).The scenarios base fuel prices offer even greater savings when compared with 2022 levels.The study estimates final average 2022 imported coal and natural gas costs,based on the current high fuel prices,at 7.3 trillion JPY.In 2022,in a single year,the LNG prices doub

189、led and coal prices more than tripled in comparison the averages across the previous 10 years(20122021).Not only would the 90%clean energy grid translate into lower electric bills.Maximizing Japans use of domestic renewable resources would significantly decrease the nations heavy dependence on impor

190、ted fossil fuels.In turn,this would bolster Japans energy security,and insulating the economy from skyrocketing international fossil fuel prices.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|36FUEL COSTS(TRILLION JPY/YEAR)432102020203020252035CoalLNGFISCAL YEARFIGURE 18.Imported Fuel Costs for Power Generation Under the Cl

191、ean Energy Scenario in 2020 JPY3.4 SCALING-UP RENEWABLES TO ACHIEVE A 90%CLEAN ENERGY GRID IS FEASIBLEUnder the 90%Clean Energy Scenario,the combined capacity of all RE sources rises from 90 GW in 2020 to 188 GW in 2030 and 254 GW in 2035(Figure 19).In particular,accelerated wind and solar capacity

192、growth makes the 90%clean energy grid feasible.On average,an additional 10 GW of renewable energy need to be brought online each year(from 2020 to 2035).This annual increase,comparable to Japans single-year renewable buildout record of 9.7 GW(FY 2015),is challenging but feasible.Solar power addition

193、s are dominant in 2020s,while offshore winds continued technology cost declines and high capacity factors make it the dominant growth area in the 2030s.This shift to clean energy will require attention to rapidly break down institutional,market,and regulatory barriers.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|37AVERAGE

194、 ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITION(GW/YEAR)151050FY 2014-FY 2019(HISTORICAL)Y2020-Y2025Y2026-Y2030Y2031-Y2035Wind Offshore Wind Fixed Offshore Wind FloatResidential PV Utility/Commercial PVOther REJAPANS SINGLE YEAR RE DEPLOYMENT RECORD(9.7 GW IN FY2015)FIGURE 19.Average Annual Renewable Capacity Additions b

195、y Periods,Clean Energy ScenarioIt will also call for swift advancements in battery storage and interregional transmission lines to balance VRE generation against loads.Battery storage capacity grows to 1.5 GW in 2030 and 29 GW in 2035,at the rate of 6 GW/year in 2030s.While 5.5 GW in transmission ca

196、pacity additions have already been approved between now and 2028,an additional 6.3 GW of expansion is needed to support 90%clean energy deployment(Figure 20).These outcomes rely on the following aspects of the Clean Energy Scenario:Deep reductions in installed costs for solar PV and wind power make

197、it possible to cost-effectively build these systems.Low-cost grid-scale battery storage allows for development closer to load centers,reducing requirements for expensive long-distance transmission lines and investments in grid balancing.Electricity demand is not expected to grow between 2020 and 203

198、5,minimizing incremental increases transmission investment.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|38TRANSMISSION CAPACITY GW4030201002020203020252035Chubu HokurikuChubu KansaiChugoku KyushuChugoku ShikokuHokkaido TohokuHokkaido TokyoHokuriku KansaiKansai ChugokuKansai ShikokuTohoku TokyoTokyo ChubuEXISTING LINE 23 G

199、WALREADY PLANNED EXPANSION 5.5 GWADDITIONAL EXPANSION 6.3 GW5.0 GWFIGURE 20.Transmission Capacity Expansion by 2035 in Clean Energy ScenarioUnder the Clean Energy Scenario,the 90%clean energy grid requires 38 trillion JPY(real 2020 JPY)of cumulative investment from 2020 to 2035(Fig 21).This capital

200、investment in predominantly RE generation,battery storage,and interregional transmission is essentially financed with fossil fuel cost savings.This represents 27%of the Japanese governments goal of public and private“green transformation(GX)”investments totaling 150 trillion JPY over the next decade

201、(GoJ,2022a).Japanese Government defines GX as“structural transition from fossil-fuel centered industry and society to clean energy centered industry and society(ibid).THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|39CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT(TRILLION JPY)4030201002020203020252035TransmissionBattery StorageWindOffshore Wind Fixe

202、dOffshore Wind FloatResidential PVUtility/Commercial PVGeothermalBiomassHydrogenFIGURE 21.Cumulative New Capital Investment for Generation and Transmission,20202035,Clean Energy Scenario3.5 CLEAN ENERGY CAN CUT CO2 EMISSIONS BY 92%,PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITSGenerating 90%of electri

203、city from clean energy by 2035 would significantly cut CO2 emissions,resulting in important environmental benefits.As shown in Figure 22,By 2035,the Clean Energy Scenario was shown to potentially reduce electricity sector CO2 emissions by 92%(345 million tons of CO2,approximately equivalent to 30%of

204、 Japans total CO2 emissions in FY 2019)compared to 2020 levels.According to simulation results,this is possible as the emission intensity of electric generation drops by 91%from 404 kilograms(kg)CO2/kilowatt hour(kWh)in 2020 to 36 kgCO2/kWh in 2035.The extremely low emission intensity supports deepe

205、r decarbonization of other sectors,such as electrified transportation,heating,and more.It also reduces exposure to fine particulate matter(PM2.5),sulfur dioxide(SO2),nitrogen oxide(NOx),and heavy metals(e.g.,mercury,cadmium,arsenic,chromium,and beryllium)emitted by fossil fuel-burning power plants(J

206、.Lelieveld et al.,2015;Ito,2010).This could deliver significant health benefits,potentially extending lifespan.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|40FIGURE 22.CO2 Emissions and Carbon Intensity,Clean Energy ScenarioCARBON INTENSITY(KG-CO2/KWh)CO2 EMISSION(MILLION TONNE)40030020010004003002001000202020202030203020

207、25202520352035THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|414CAVEATS AND FUTURE WORKAlthough we assessed an operationally feasible least-cost pathway of Japans power system using weather-synchronized load and generation data,further work is needed to advance our understanding of other facets of a 90%clean power system.Fi

208、rst,this report primarily focuses on renewable-specific technology pathways rather than explore the full portfolio of clean energy technologies.The technologies and approaches examined in this report could contribute to deep decarbonization of the future electricity supply,lowering system costs whil

209、e accelerating emission reductions.Additionally,issues such as loss of load probability,system inertia,alternating-current(AC)transmission flow of both intra-and inter-regional transmission lines,and issues in AC power system such as reactive power compensation need further assessment.Options to add

210、ress these issues have been identified elsewhere(for example,Denholm,2020).Second,our assessment does not explicitly address the operational impacts of day-ahead/intra-day forecast errors in RE and load,while we included operating(spinning)reserves in our production cost model to ensure the least-co

211、st system has a certain capability to address such forecast errors.However,several studies have shown that with state-of-the-art forecasting techniques and the shorter gate closure time,the impact of such forecast errors appears to be small(for example,Hodge,2015;Martinz-Anido,2016;IEA Wind TCP Task

212、 25,2021).Although this analysis does not attempt a full power-system dependability assessment,we perform scenario and sensitivity analysis to ensure that demand is met in all periods,including during extreme weather events and periods of low renewable energy generation.This modeling approach provid

213、es confidence that a 90%clean electricity grid is operationally feasible.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|425CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY INSIGHTS Sustained declines in costs for wind,solar,and energy storage technologies create new opportunities to lower Japans wholesale electricity costs and reduce related emissio

214、ns.The results of this study suggest that expanding Japans share of electricity generated from clean energy sources to around 59%by 2030,and then to 90%by 2035,would deliver the needed reductions in electricity costs,while making it possible to meet carbon neutrality and air quality improvement goal

215、s.Transitioning to a system with 90%of electricity generated from clean energy sources would require overcoming barriers to the development and integration of wind generation,solar generation,and energy storage technologies.This final section summarizes the studys key conclusions,provides recommenda

216、tions for changes in policy and regulation based on the results,and outlines possible priorities for future research to meet those challenges.5.1 KEY CONCLUSIONSDeclining wind,solar,and energy storage costs are changing the economics of Japans electricity sector.This analysis illustrates emerging ch

217、anges in the economics of Japans electricity sector.In the selected scenarios,the lowest-cost resources for meeting electricity demand growth combine wind,solar,and energy storage.Japans electricity system can be dependably operated with high levels of clean energy generation.The base fuel price cas

218、e analysis shows that a highly dependable system is possible with 90%of Japans electricity provided by clean energy sources,without any coal generation.This 2035 generation model is shown THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|43to operate dependably with a mix of 59%(in summer)to 72%(in winter)wind and solar energy

219、even during unanticipated load increases.Increasing clean energy generation would deliver additional emission reduction and health benefits.Increasing the share of clean energy generation to 90%or more by 2035 would significantly cut CO2 emissions.Additional reductions in air pollutant emissions can

220、 be delivered by widespread electrification of the greater economy,offering environmental and health benefits beyond the scope of this study.For instance,an accelerated shift to electric vehicles and batteries charged with power from clean energy plants will reduce both vehicle tailpipe and power pl

221、ant emissions.The combination of electrification and clean energy generation would be a powerful force in hastening progress toward Japans environmental goals.Reaching cost-effective levels of clean energy generation will require overcoming barriers to wind,solar,and energy storage development and i

222、ntegration.The Clean Energy Scenario involves an unprecedented scale of wind,solar,and energy storage development.From 2030 to 2035 in the Clean Energy Scenario,RE generation grows from nearly 188 GW to 254 GW in 2035.Battery storage grows to 29 GW by 2035.Successfully adding clean energy systems to

223、 the grid at this scale and in this time frame requires significant changes in regulations,markets,operations,and land use.Meeting 2035 goals will rely on a shift to a low-cost RE pathway that begins now.For the share of electricity generated from RE sources to begin its acceleration in the 20202035

224、 time period(as in the Clean Energy Scenario),policy and regulatory changes to support this deployment need to be immediately implemented.While there already may be momentum behind the accelerated growth of wind and solar energy development,lowering remaining barriers to rapid expansion of battery s

225、torage has yet to be made a near-term priority.5.2 POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONSThe enabling conditions needed to deliver benefits in five key areas are:Establishing Medium-Term Policy Targets(Beyond 2030)This study has shown that the clean energy transition will require massive investments in generation,

226、storage,and transmission,and significant technological innovation.Possible technological and policy options to support the transition are THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|44diverse.To avoid technology lock-in and investment in future stranded assets that lead to high costs in the power system,Japan needs mediu

227、m-term policy targets to guide technology development and capital investment(Hidalgo-Gonzalez et al.,2021).While a 2030 short-term target for the generation mix and a long-term 2050 carbon neutrality goal have been set(GoJ,2021d),Japan has not established intermediate RE and emissions targets to bri

228、dge between those 2030 and 2050 objectives.Specific policy schemes to support these targets,such as carbon pricing,have yet to be presented.Given that energy projects typically require more than a decade of planning and capital investment,the need to set medium-term policy targets beyond 2030 is urg

229、ent.The Japanese government plans to invest trillions of dollars in decarbonization technologies through the Green Innovation Fund(GoJ,2021c)and Green Transformation(GX)Bonds(GoJ,2022a)to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.In allocating these massive amounts of public funds,it is essential to align p

230、lans with medium-and long-term policy targets to maximize cost-effectiveness.Accelerating RE Deployment and Coal-Fired Power Phaseout Carbon emissions are the representative environmental externalities.In principle,internalizing the societal cost of carbon(SCC)with carbon pricing is vital to efficie

231、ntly reduce carbon emissions(Rode et al.,2021).Estimates of the SCC vary widely.For example,the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency proposed increasing their estimate of the SCC from the current standard of 51 USD/t-CO2 to 190 USD/t-CO2(Interagency Working Group,2021).Currently,Japans carbon price i

232、s 289 JPY/t-CO2(2.6 USD/t-CO2).The Japanese government is currently planning to introduce a new emissions trading scheme,which will include the electric power sector starting in 2026(GoJ,2022a).Increasing the carbon price closer to the level of the estimated SCC should accelerate the clean energy tr

233、ansition.Carbon taxes and emissions trading have been introduced in many countries worldwide and across industries including the electric power sector(e.g.,RGGI in the U.S.,California,EU-ETS,Canada,and China).However,an immediate,significant increase in carbon price to match the SCC is often politic

234、ally or economically infeasible.In those instances,a combination of other policy measures is called for to achieve a clean energy transition.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|45Japan has supported various types of RE through feed-in tariffs(FIT),including the newly introduced Feed-in Premium(FIP).Unlike the typ

235、ical renewable portfolio standard(RPS),which encourages competition among RE technologies,a FIT controls the deployment rate of different RE technologies through tailored financial incentives(Lesser&Su,2008).This makes mass deployment practical and could result in cost reductions for offshore wind p

236、ower in Japan.Carbon pricing and FIT are both needed for an economically feasible phaseout of coal-fired power generation,the largest source of CO2 emissions in Japans electric power system.Based on this studys analysis,99%of coal can be phased out by 2035 by linearly increasing the carbon price fro

237、m 289 JPY/t-CO2(2.6 USD/t-CO2)in 2020 to 6,000 JPY/t-CO2(55 USD/t-CO2)in 2035,assuming the base fuel prices used in this paper(see Appendix D).This price is low compared to existing or planned carbon prices in other developed countries(approximate JPY equivalents):European Union:About 90 Euros(EUR)/

238、t-CO2 in 2022(12,600 JPY/t-CO2,1 EUR=140 JPY)Canada:65 Canadian Dollars(CAD)/t-CO2 in 2023 and 170 CAD/t-CO2 in 2035(6,500 JPY/t-CO2 in 2023 and 17,000 JPY/t-CO2 in 2035,1 CAD=100 JPY)Singapore:25 Singapore Dollars(SGD)/t-CO2 in 2024,45 SGD/t-CO2 in 2026,and 5080 SGD/t-CO2 in 2030(2,500 JPY/t-CO2 in

239、 2024,4,500 JPY/t-CO2 in 2026,5,000-8,000 JPY/t-CO2 in 2030,1 SGD=100 JPY)Furthermore,the revenue from carbon pricing can be used as a financial resource for public and private investment in decarbonizing technologies.In addition,as shown in below,the tax burden of carbon pricing can be mitigated by

240、 partial reimbursement.Reducing Institutional and Societal Barriers to Rapid RE DeploymentIn addition to economic barriers,there are institutional and societal barriers to the large-scale,rapid deployment of RE,including potential community and environmental impacts of RE projects,delays in the admi

241、nistrative process such as permits and approvals,and investment risks.Some RE projects have reportedly led to societal and environmental debates that span entire countries(Segreto et al.,2020),including in Japan.For the large-scale,rapid deployment of RE,it is necessary to eliminate not only economi

242、c barriers presented by carbon pricing and FIT,but also these institutional and societal barriers.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|46To properly weigh societal and environmental considerations and to expedite the permitting process for construction and connection to the grid,multi-stakeholder processes have pr

243、oven effective in the selection and zoning of suitable sites(USAID and NREL,2017).Lack of social acceptance can be a significant obstacle to RE development in countries worldwide,including Japan.Renewable energy zones(REZs)are geographic areas with high-quality RE resources that have been pre-qualif

244、ied as socially and environmentally suitable for development.Early involvement of relevant stakeholders in selecting REZs can effectively avert development issues,helping expedite the permitting and approval process.Texas and California have selected REZs for wind energy,solar power,and transmission

245、 line projects since the late 2000s to streamline development and permitting,reduce economic costs,and minimize environmental impacts.In addition,inexpensive RE and cost-effective RE deployment need to be made national priorities.Because the benefits of enhanced energy security and reduced emissions

246、 are enjoyed by the nation as a whole,power transmission investments should be allocated nationwide,(Andrade&Baldick,2017).A transmission line master plan s is currently being developed by the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators,Japan(OCCTO)to integrate high share

247、of renewable electricity.Pursuing a Just Energy Transition through Targeted Assistance Policies Economic pain inflicted on the few will never result in a just energy transition(Wang&Lo,2021).This can be addressed in part by refunding a portion of the revenue from carbon pricing to individual househo

248、lds with programs such as Californias climate credits and Canadas climate action incentives.Allocating the revenues from carbon pricing to benefit disadvantaged/low-income communities is another effective strategy to ensure a just transition.For example,at least 35%of Californias cap-and-trade aucti

249、on revenue is allocated for the use of disadvantaged/low-income communities in dealing with environmental justice issues.The socioeconomic impacts of coal-fired power phaseout on local communities and businesses also require mitigation.Carbon price revenues can soften the economic and workforce impa

250、cts of plant closures by funding training for local workers in new skills,financial compensation,and accelerated depreciation to local communities and company employees.For example,under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,the U.S.government is facilitating t

251、he transition from coal to renewable energy.These efforts include establishing financial and technical assistance through the Just Transition Fund and the National Economic Transition Platform.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|47Ensuring Power System Dependability,Enhancing Operational Flexibility,and Boosting

252、Energy EfficiencyAs presented in this study,it is especially vital to ensure flexibility and dependability in a grid dominated by solar and wind power,with their inherent variability and uncertainty.When transitioning from a fossil fuel-based power system to a RE-based power system,there is a risk o

253、f jeopardizing the dependability of energy systems without adequate coordination(Grubert&Hastings-Simon,2022).Flexibility can be supported by flexible gas-fired and hydropower plants,energy storage systems,and demand side management and measures(e.g.,demand response and vehicle-to-grid)(Degefa et al

254、.,2021).Appropriate design of capacity and ancillary service markets and profitable business models are necessary to encourage sufficient investments in these and other flexibility resources.Battery storage significantly contributes to the dependability of the electric power system,as this analysis

255、has shown.Policy targets can encourage commercialization of battery storage and help secure revenue in the various capacity and ancillary service markets.In addition,subsidies or a mandate to deploy a certain level of battery storage can be effective at the early stages of battery storage deployment

256、,when the technology and markets are still relatively immature.The U.S.federal government provides an investment tax credit(ITC)for battery storage installed with solar power under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022(Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,2022).In addition,nine U.S.state governments mandat

257、e electric utilities to procure or install battery storage.Demand response measures also have great potential to ensure the dependability of the electricity system,especially in response to the record heat and cold waves expected to become more frequent as climate change progresses.Similarly,the cap

258、acity and ancillary markets enable natural gas-fired,flexible thermal power generation to play a role in ensuring the systems dependability on summer and winter peak load days.This proposed investment in the transmission and distribution network will also improve the systems dependability by sharing

259、 planning reserve margin and operating reserves among regions and smoothing the fluctuation of loads and variable renewable energy generation.Constructing a transmission and distribution network requires a long lead time of about 5 to 10 years,which makes early planning all the more crucial.Energy e

260、fficiency measures are effective in improving dependability and lowering power system costs(Relf et al.,2018).Record heat and cold waves associated THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|48with climate change are expected to cause future increase in peak loads.Building insulation will lower these peak loads and stre

261、ngthen the dependability of the power system.Since the economic payback time of insulation is typically short,mandatory measures such as strengthening insulation requirements in building codes are often most effective for new buildings.On the other hand,financial incentives can be more effective for

262、 retrofitting existing building stock.Through these possible actions,the swift decarbonization of Japans electricity system would make it possible to more quickly electrify other demand sectors,reducing CO2 emissions and smoothing the countrys path to a carbon-neutral economy by 2050.THE 2035 JAPAN

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290、91.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102291THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|53APPENDIX A|MODELING APPROACHThe state-of-the-art methodology for studies that assess the impacts of high renewable energy(RE)share on electric power systems is to use capacity expansion and production cost models.For this study,we u

291、se a combination of a capacity expansion model and a production cost model using PLEXOS,an industry-standard model that is used by grid operators and utilities worldwide(Abhyankar et al.;2022,IRENA,2017).First,we use a capacity expansion model to identify the least-cost(“optimal”)generation,storage,

292、and interregional transmission investments from 2020 to 2035 that meet regional electric power demand requirements,grid dependability(reserve)requirements,technology resource constraints,and policy constraints.Second,we use the production cost model to assess the operational feasibility of the least

293、-cost portfolio by simulating hourly dispatch of generators,storage,and transmission ties in the year 2035.For each year,we simulate hourly economic dispatch using the production cost model to ensure that the grid can run dependably for all 8,760 hours in the year,including the hours when the system

294、 is most constrained.PLEXOS uses deterministic,mixed-integer optimization to minimize the cost of meeting load given physical(e.g.,generator capacities,ramp rates,transmission limits)and economic(e.g.,fuel prices,start-up costs,import/export limits)grid parameters.Moreover,PLEXOS simulates unit comm

295、itment and actual energy dispatch for each hour(at 1-minute intervals)of a given period.As a transparent model,PLEXOS makes available to the user the entire mathematical problem formulation.The model minimizes total generation cost(fixed plus variable costs)for the entire system,including existing a

296、nd new generation capacity and transmission networks(Abhyankar et al.,2022).We assess the optimal resource mix under a range of scenarios examining deployment rates,coal plant retirements,demand growth,electricity market design,demand response,and supply chain challenges.We represent the Japanese el

297、ectricity grid using 9 interconnected nodes connected by 23 GW of interregional transmission corridors and 1 isolated node(Okinawa)in 2020(Figure 2).THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|54Figure A1 depicts our overall method and the various data components.Future load projectionsCapacity under construction+announc

298、ed targetsCapital,O&M and transmission costsPLEXOSCapacity expansion and economic dispatch model with hourly resolution at plant levelSystem operations,reserves&market rulesFuel prices and availability constraintsTotal electricity supply costHourly dispatch&transmission flowsThermal operational cons

299、traintsHourly load profilesRE(solar and wind)profiles+hydro constraintsFIGURE A1.Overall modeling approachTHE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|55APPENDIX B|MODELING INPUTSProjections of installed costs and fixed operations and maintenance(O&M)costs for onshore wind,offshore wind,solar PV,and battery storage in Jap

300、an are based on Japans cost data;the 2022 United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Annual Technology Base(ATB)forecasts;and industry consultations(Committee on Procurement Prices,2022;GoJ 2021f;NREL 2022).Table B1 shows the assumptions on capital costs of wind,solar,and battery storag

301、e.Roundtrip efficiency of battery storage and pumped hydro storage are assumed to be 90%and 80%,respectively.TABLE B1.Solar,wind,and battery storage capital cost assumptionsYEARLOWBASEHIGHLOWBASEHIGHSOLAR PVCOST/KW:THOUSAND JPY/KW(USD/KW)BATTERY STORAGE(4-HR)COST/KW:THOUSAND JPY/KW(USD/KW)2020198(1,

302、800)198(1,800)198(1,800)48(433)48(433)48(433)203081(736)102(927)166(1,510)16(141)25(225)30(273)203576(691)96(873)150(1,360)14(127)23(229)27(246)Onshore windCost/kW:thousand JPY/kW(USD/kW)Offshore wind(fixed-bottom)Cost/kW:thousand JPY/kW(USD/kW)2020280(2,550)280(2,550)280(2,550)515(4,681)515(4,681)5

303、15(4,681)2030204(1,850)222(2,020)226(2,050)321(2,915)348(3,614)406(3,691)2035188(1,710)207(1,880)212(1,930)253(2,301)286(2,602)361(3,278)Offshore wind(floating)Cost/kW:thousand JPY/kW(USD/kW)2020572(5,200)600(5,455)650(5,908)2030399(3,629)445(4,042)539(4,901)2035374(3,406)421(3,832)521(4,738)1 USD=1

304、10 JPY(Average exchange rate from 09/2013 to 08/2022)THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|56Other clean energy costs and operational parameters have been taken from Japanese Government estimates(GoJ 2021f,Committee on the Procurement Prices of Renewable Electricity,2022)and industry consultations.Table B2 summariz

305、es the assumptions.TABLE B2.Other Clean Technology Costs and Operational ParametersCAPITAL COST*FIXED O&M COST*HEAT RATE (GJ/MWh)FORCED OUTAGE RATE(%)MAINTENANCE OUTAGE RATE(%)RAMPING (%OF INSTALLED CAPACITY PER MINUTE)AUXILIARY CONSUMPTION(%)Biomass398(3,620)27(245)8.3510N/A6Geothermal790(7,180)33(

306、300)N/A510N/A11Hydropower620(5,640)16(145)N/A55100%1Hydrogen;Ammonia161(1,460)6.4(58)6.6552%2.3*Capital and fixed O&M costs are in 1,000 JPY/kW(2020 JPY/2020 USD)/1 USD=110 JPY (Average exchange rate from 09/2013 to 08/2022)TABLE B3.Conventional Technology Costs and Operational ParametersCAPITAL COS

307、T*FIXED O&M COST*HEAT RATE (GJ/MWh)FORCED OUTAGE RATE(%)MAINTENANCE OUTAGE RATE(%)COLD-START TIME(HOURS)MINIMUM UP-TIME(HOURS)MINIMUM DOWN-TIME(HOURS)TECHNICAL MINIMUM LEVEL(%)RAMPING(%OF INSTALLED CAPACITY PER MINUTE)AUXILIARY CONSUMPTION(%)Coal244(2,220)11.9(108)8.3510241264015.5Gas CCGT161(1,460)

308、6.4(58)6.65512633022.3Gas GT101 (922)2.3(21)9.75511120102.3Nuclear516(4,690)17.3(157)10.352096969690N/A4.0*Capital and fixed O&M costs are in thousand JPY/kW(2020 thousand JPY 2020 USD);1 USD=110 JPY(Average exchange rate from 09/2013 to 08/2022)THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|57Conventional technology(coal,n

309、uclear,natural gas)capital and fixed O&M costs have been taken from previous Japan and U.S.estimates(GoJ,2021f;NREL,2022).Operational parameters such as ramp rates,technical minimum levels,auxiliary consumption,minimum up and down times,etc.,have been taken from the data used in previous Japan and U

310、.S.studies,regulatory norms,and expert/industry consultations.They are summarized in Table B3.Capacity and commission year of existing power plants are taken from multiple sources including Japan Electricity Power Exchange database(JEPX,2022),Feed-in Tariff Statistics(METI,2022),generation companies

311、 websites,and Electric Utility Businesses Handbook(METI,2021).TABLE B4.Summary of Key Assumptions and VariablesPARAMETERASSUMPTIONSOURCEGeographic Scope10 regions(nodes)Solar,Wind,and Battery Storage Technology CostsNREL ATB 2022 projections with adjustmentsNREL ATB 2022,GoJ 2021f,Advisory Committee

312、 2021,Expert consultationsOther RE and Conventional Technology CostsGeothermal,biomass,hydro,hydrogen,natural gas,coal,and nuclear costs are based on Japanese Government estimations.GoJ 2021f,Expert consultationsOperations&Maintenance(O&M)Fixed and variable O&M costs of all non-retired plants are in

313、cludedWeighted Average Cost of Capital(WACC)2.5%(real)OCCTO 2021,Expert consultationsElectricity DemandAnnual and monthly amounts,along with daily and hourly load profiles,all by region.GoJ 2021e,10 Regional T&D companies website,Expert consultationsExtreme Events AnalysisUse weather data and energy

314、 load for four weather-years(20172020).Weather affects both demand and wind and solar supply.Nuclear RetirementsNuclear plants that are not granted 20-year extension as of 2022 assumed to retire in 40 years in the nuclear retirement sensitivity.Expert consultationsTHE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|58PARAMETERAS

315、SUMPTIONSOURCETechnical LifespanWind:30 yearsSolar PV:30 yearsHydropower:100 yearsBattery:15 yearsNuclear:60 yearsGas:50 yearsCoal:50 yearsGoJ 2021f,JEPX 2022,NREL 2022,Expert consultationsEconomic LifespanStandard amortization is 30 years,batteries are 15 years.Expert consultationsResidential Solar

316、,Geothermal,Hydrogen,and BiomassTheir 2030 targets are met at least,while more deployment is allowed when economical.GoJ 2021eCarbon PriceThe CO2 price is 289 JPY/t-CO2 for all cases from 2020 to 2035.In the carbon price analysis(appendix D),the CO2 price linearly ramps up from 2026,reaching the fin

317、al CO2 price by 2035.Planning Reserve Margin10%in each regionExpert ConsultationOperating ReservesRegulation reserves,spinning reserves(contingency reserves),and flexibility reserves(ramping reserves)are included as a function of load and solar and wind share.The reserve requirement levels are calcu

318、lated based on Lew et al.(2013)Lew et al.(2013),ReEDs(2021),Expert consultationFirm capacity of renewable energy In estimating planning reserve margin,we used firm capacity estimates of renewable energy(i.e.,solar,wind,and hydro)in each region from Japanese authority(OCCTO 2021).OCCTO(2021),Expert c

319、onsultationTHE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|59APPENDIX C|SOLAR AND WIND PROFILESWe estimated the solar and wind(offshore and onshore)resource potential and profiles from the ground up.This section explains the methodology used,which can be divided into two parts.The first part involves estimating the total res

320、ource potential of solar and wind available in each region.This forms an upper limit on the amount of new capacity that can be built in PLEXOS for each region.To estimate resource potential,we use the capacity factor data along with multiple exclusion datasets,including land cover,elevation,slope of

321、 terrain,natural parks,fishery zones and defense areas.The second part involves estimating the representative hourly solar and wind profiles for each region.Profiles are estimated at site level using meteorological data from re-analysis datasets,and then an aggregation algorithm is used to create a

322、provincial/cluster level representative profile.The potential and profiles are estimated at the regional level for onshore wind and solar and at a cluster level for floating and fix bottom offshore wind.RESOURCE POTENTIAL Solar To estimate the solar resource potential in each region,we start with th

323、e complete area of that region and remove the areas which are not suitable for solar development.We use four exclusion criteria for estimating the solar resource potential:land cover,slope,elevation and natural parks.The land cover dataset comes from the European Space Agencys Copernicus programme.W

324、e use the Moderate Dynamic Land Cover Dataset,which has a spatial resolution of 100m and divides land cover into 23 classes.We exclude dense forest(i.e.,forests with canopy 70%),wetlands,moss and lichens,urban and builtup areas,areas with snow and ice,permanent water bodies,and open seas.In addition

325、 to land cover,we use elevation and slope to remove areas not suitable for solar development.The elevation data also comes from the European Space Agencys Copernicus programme,the Copernicus GLO-30 Digital Elevation Model.The dataset has a spatial resolution of 30 m and provides elevation of the sur

326、face of earth,including man made buildings and infrastructure.We estimate slope from the elevation dataset using the planar method.The method estimates the steepest descent based on the maximum change in elevations between the cell and the 8 neighboring cells(Burrough,et al.,1995).THE 2035 JAPAN REP

327、ORT|60We exclude areas which have an elevation of more than 4,000 m and slope above 5 degrees.We then remove areas which fall under the territory of natural parks.After exclusions based upon land cover,elevation,slope,and natural parks,the areas that are left in a region are considered suitable for

328、solar development.To estimate the quality of solar resource potential in each region,we use the resource data from Global Solar Atlas.Solar Atlas provides annual average solar capacity factors at 30 arcsec(1 km)spatial resolution.This dataset and its wind counterpart,Global Wind Atlas,were developed

329、 by the World Bank.The Solar Atlas models solar generation using 10 years of meteorological data and creates an averaged solar capacity factor data.We combine the capacity factor data with the RE suitability data derived,after exclusions,to create a solar resource map of Japan(Figure C1).This map sh

330、ows the capacity factor at all developable sites in Japan.CAPACITY FACTOR Band 1:band=1 0.18CFCAPACITY(GW)0.1800.16 -0.181590.14-0.167960.12-0.14470FIGURE C1.Developable Sites for Solar PVONSHORE WIND The methodology for estimating onshore wind resource potential is very similar to the method used f

331、or solar.We take the complete area of a region and remove the areas not suitable for wind development to estimate the resource potential.We use the same land cover,elevation,slope,and natural parks datasets as used for solar.However,we use different limits on elevation and slope as solar and wind ha

332、ve different slope and elevation considerations.We exclude areas with elevation greater than 3000m and slope greater than 11.31 degrees for onshore wind.THE 2035 JAPAN REPORT|61For land cover,we use the same criteria as solar and remove dense forests(i.e.,forest with canopy 70%),wetlands,moss and li

333、chens,urban and builtup areas,areas with snow and ice,permanent water bodies,and open seas.The Global Wind Atlas provides the annual average wind capacity factors at 1 km spatial resolution.It was created using 10 years of hourly meteorological data,and then averaged to get an annual average capacity factor for a site.We combine the Wind Atlas capacity factor data with our developable sites data t