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1、BlackRock Investment Institute2025 GlobalOutlookBuilding the transformationFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-1/1822025 Global Ou

2、tlookIntroductionTwice a year,BlackRocks senior portfolio managers and investment executives gather for two days to debate the outlook for economies and markets and its implications for portfolios.The Global Outlook is the culmination of that debate and discussion.That debate informs our macro frami

3、ng:we have more conviction we are in a very unusual environment.This is not a typical business cycle the world is undergoing an economic transformation driven by mega forces.Through this lens,we assess the investment opportunities and risks unfolding today and craft the themes of this outlook.Our th

4、ree themes are centered on three interconnecting ideas.First,that capital markets,including private markets,are pivotal in building the transformation we see ahead.Second,that investing itself needs a rethink in this unusual environment of transformation.And as the AI theme broadens out and supports

5、 U.S.corporate strength,we keep a pro-risk stance.Rob KapitoPresident BlackRock Philipp HildebrandVice Chairman BlackRockJean BoivinHead BlackRock Investment InstituteEd FishwickHead of Risk and Quantitative Analysis BlackRockWei LiGlobal Chief Investment Strategist BlackRock Investment InstituteViv

6、ek PaulGlobal Head of Portfolio Research BlackRock Investment InstituteRick RiederHead of Fundamental Fixed Income BlackRockRaffaele SaviGlobal Head of Systematic BlackRockAuthorsExecutive sponsorsRich KushelHead BlackRock Portfolio Management GroupFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AM

7、ERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-2/183SummaryWe have argued since 2020 that we are not in a business cycle.Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega for

8、ces,like the rise of artificial intelligence(AI),transform economies.The ongoing outsized response of long-term assets to short-term news shows how unusual this environment is.We stay risk-on as we look for transformation beneficiaries and go further overweight U.S.stocks as the AI theme broadens ou

9、t.We have more conviction inflation and interest rates will stay above pre-pandemic levels.IntroductionSummary Investment environmentLearning about the trendChecks and(im)balancesWhat 2024 says about 2025Evolving our scenarios ThemesFinancing the futureRethinking investingStaying pro-riskFocusTracki

10、ng AIs evolutionInfrastructure for the long termIntensifying fragmentationNew diversifiers neededBig callsGranular views234-645 678-10891011-14 1112 13141516Mega forces are reshaping economies and their long-term trajectories its no longer about short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansi

11、on or recession.2024 has reinforced our view that we are not in a business cycle:AI has been a major market driver,inflation fell without a growth slowdown and typical recession signals failed.Volatility surged and narratives flipflopped as markets kept viewing new data through a business cycle lens

12、,not one of transformation.As we head into 2025,some countries have new leaders with a mandate for political and economic change.That could see policymakers pursuing measures that add to volatility rather than stability.Financial markets may work to rein in any policy extremes,such as with fiscal po

13、licy.Yet we think there will be fewer checks when stocks are running up,creating the potential for risk appetite to turn frothy.This fundamentally different landscape upends the nature of investing,in our view.We think investors can find opportunities by tapping into the waves of transformation we s

14、ee ahead in the real economy,with AI and the low-carbon transition requiring investment potentially on par with the Industrial Revolution.Thats why our first theme is financing the future.We see capital markets playing a vital role as these mega forces drive a broad infrastructure buildout.We think

15、investors should focus more on themes and less on broad asset classes as mega forces reshape whole economies.In other words,the unit of analysis for thinking about returns is changing and that calls for rethinking investing,our second theme.One key conclusion:with no stable long-term trend and an ev

16、er-evolving outlook,investors may want to reconsider what a neutral asset allocation is and put more weight on tactical views since investors cannot rely on eventual convergence back to historical trends.Being more dynamic with portfolios and getting granular with views are both essential,in our vie

17、w.Where does that leave us?We are staying pro-risk,our third theme.We see the U.S.still standing out versus other developed markets thanks to stronger growth and its ability to better capitalize on mega forces.We up our overweight to U.S.equities and see the AI theme broadening out.We dont think pri

18、cey U.S.equity valuations alone will trigger a near-term reassessment.But we are ready to adjust if markets become overexuberant.We are underweight long-term U.S.Treasuries on both a tactical and strategic horizon and we see risks to our upbeat view from any spike in long-term bond yields.We see pri

19、vate markets as an important way to allocate to mega forces and have turned more positive on infrastructure equity on a strategic horizon.ContentsFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIEN

20、TS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-3/184Investment environmentLearning about Learning about the trendthe trendFor decades,economies followed stable,long-term trends.Investors could focus almost entirely on navigating any temporary deviations around those trends.Growth would eventual

21、ly converge back toward its trend.That has been a foundational tenet of portfolio construction.We think the environment is very different now.Economies are undergoing a transformation that could keep shifting the long-term trend,making a wide range of very different outcomes possible.See the chart.W

22、hats driving economic growth may look very different.Why?Mega forces could fundamentally reshape economies.Take AI:it may do more than improve efficiency in specific tasks and could eventually accelerate the process of generating new ideas and discoveries with far-reaching implications for growth an

23、d the composition of the economy.Such a transformation could surpass the Industrial Revolution in its breadth and impact.Similarly,deepening geopolitical fragmentation is upending established trade flows and supply chains.New trading blocs and protectionist policies could reconfigure how economies o

24、perate,potentially reducing trade efficiency.The energy transition intertwined with mega forces like AI and geopolitical fragmentation is also spurring major innovation and investment.And the digitization of finance is transforming how households and businesses manage cash,borrow,transact and invest

25、.Aging populations constrain labor supply.Barring any AI-driven productivity gains,that could limit how much economies can produce and grow.A rise in immigration has blunted this impact in some countries,but likely only temporarily notably in the U.S.All this is why we think incoming data arent abou

26、t a business cycle but show how the trend is changing.Surprises can show permanent trend changes and entirely new economic trajectories.See the chart.For illustrative purposes only.For illustrative purposes only.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,December 2024.Note:The charts show an illustration

27、 of how economic output could evolve the chart on the left and top right assume there is one single central trend for growth and the chart on the bottom right assumes that there is not one single central trend for growth,but many different trends possible.An ever-changing trendHypothetical evolution

28、 of U.S.GDPEconomies are being transformed by mega forces such as the rise of AI,geopolitical fragmentation and aging societies.We see long-term economic trends being reshaped by them now.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIO

29、NAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.Chart takeaway:Getting inflation all the way back down to target the dotted green line would require the Fed to deal a significant blow to the economy.Chart takeaway:Mega forces are reshaping the global economy and leading to

30、a wide array of potential outcomes.This is a break from the pre-pandemic era when we saw only small deviations around a steady central trend.ActivityWith a baselineWithout a baselineBIIM1224U/M-4071082-4/185Investment environmentChecks and(im)balances2024 was a major election year and a punishing on

31、e for incumbents.Voters expressed frustration,most notably about the higher cost of living after the pandemic but also issues like immigration and border security.Several countries have now seen either a change in government or the erosion of ruling party support.The desire for political and economi

32、c change could remain a driving force in 2025.Many leaders across developed economies are constrained by inflation,low political support and,outside the U.S.,lack of growth.We expect a sharp focus on national economic and security priorities,potentially at the expense of others.We could also see gre

33、ater short-termism as more frequent transfers of power compel governments to move quickly to implement agendas.In other words,policymaking could itself become a source of disruption in an already more fragile world and amid heightened strategic competition between the U.S.and China.The U.S.is a case

34、 in point.President-elect Donald Trump promised voters big policy change.Republican control of both Congress and the presidency means he has greater ability to implement much of his agenda.Markets view some of his proposed policy as a positive near term like tax cuts,deregulation and support for tra

35、ditional energy.Others less so,including curbs in immigration and a wide range of tariffs that if implemented could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and add to inflation.See the chart.Less government emphasis on macro stabilizing policies like fiscal frameworks and inflation targets would lead t

36、o more instances of financial markets to enforcing discipline.For example,rising bond yields could temper loose fiscal policy.And risk asset selloffs could force about-turns on policies seen as damaging growth.Yet we think this could tip risk assets toward run-ups.For example,hopes of financial dere

37、gulation are stirring animal spirits.This is good news for now but risks market froth later.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,IMF,globaltradealert.org(or with the data from globaltradealert.org),December 2024.Notes:The chart shows the number of unilateral non-liberalizing trade interventions(as

38、classified by globaltradealert.org)taken by countries around the world.Broadening protectionismTrade restrictions,2014-2023We see macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption.That could lead to more instance of markets enforcing discipline.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN A

39、MERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.Chart takeaway:Getting inflation all the way back down to target the dotted green line would require the Fed to deal a significant blow to the economy.Chart takeawa

40、y:Trade restrictions around the globe have shot up in recent years as post-World War Two globalization gives way to rising protectionism.010002000300020142016201820202022Trade restrictionsGoodsInvestmentServicesBIIM1224U/M-4071082-5/186Investment environmentWhat 2024 says about 2025It only takes a l

41、ookback at 2024 to see why trying to overlay a typical business cycle on incoming U.S.data can be misleading when structural forces are at play.If this were a typical cycle,U.S.growth should have slowed as tighter financial conditions brought down inflation.We havent seen that.Inflation has eased,bu

42、t growth has not.In fact,financial conditions have loosened since late 2022 well before the Fed started cutting policy rates as U.S.equities surged.So why did inflation cool?In our view,other bigger forces did the work:the post-pandemic normalization of the goods and labor markets,and an unexpected

43、rise in immigration.The immigration boost to the labor force also explained the brief rise in the U.S.unemployment rate.It was not the typical indicator of faltering growth as markets originally interpreted it.We think this is a helpful lesson to take into 2025 as markets remain prone to making the

44、same mistake.Markets have also been more sensitive to data surprises than in the past,with even long-term assets having outsized reactions.See the chart.That reinforces volatility.So,what does this imply for 2025?We see persistent U.S.inflation pressures,from rising geopolitical fragmentation plus b

45、ig spending on the AI buildout and the low-carbon transition.We also think an aging workforce could start to bite as immigration slows,likely keeping wage growth too high for inflation to fall back to the Feds 2%target.We dont think the Fed is embarking on a typical cutting cycle.We think it will cu

46、t further in 2025,and growth will cool a little,but with inflation still above target the Fed wont have room to cut much past 4%,leaving rates well above pre-pandemic levels.Even with persistent budget deficits,sticky inflation and greater bond market volatility,investors are not demanding much comp

47、ensation yet for the risk of holding long-term government bonds.We think that will change and see long-term U.S.Treasury yields rising.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from LSEG Datas

48、tream,December 2024.Notes:The line shows how sensitive the U.S.10-year Treasury yield is to economic surprises,using regression analysis to estimate the relationship between U.S.10-year Treasury yields and the Citi Economics Surprise Index over a rolling six-month window.This is only an estimate of

49、the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and economic surprises.Sensitive to surprisesSensitivity of U.S.10-year yield to economic surprises,2003-2024This is not a business cycle,but a series of structural shifts,in our view.Interpreting incoming data in this light will again be key in 20

50、25.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.Chart takeaway:Getting inflation all the way back down to target the dotted green line would require the Fed to

51、 deal a significant blow to the economy.Chart takeaway:We have seen heightened market sensitivity to economic data surprises.We think this reflects investors viewing new information through a typical business cycle lens,rather than in the context of a transformation reshaping the economy.-0.2-0.100.

52、10.20.30.40.50.620032008201320182023SensitivityBIIM1224U/M-4071082-6/187ScenariosIn the second half of 2024,we have seen sharp volatility as markets shifted quickly to price in different scenarios.Stocks hit all-time highs led by mega cap tech as investors embraced a view similar to our concentrated

53、 AI scenario laid out in our Midyear Outlook.That then gave way to a rescued hard landing scenario where deep Fed rate cuts were priced in.This confirmed that a typical business cycle lens is not the way to view incoming information.We leaned against the pricing of sharp Fed rate cuts as if it were

54、responding to downturns as in the past,and the market now sees policy rates staying higher for longer in this environment.We think this reflects how investors are grappling with learning about the trend.We worked with portfolio managers across BlackRock to evolve our scenarios for 2025 given what we

55、 have learned.The new scenarios are U.S.corporate strength and easing supply constraints.See our scenario map.This recognizes that U.S.corporate strength goes beyond the AI theme.We think that U.S.corporate strength is the most likely scenario to play out over the next six-to-12 months as earnings g

56、rowth broadens,even if the economy slows slightly.This highlights the resilience of corporate earnings even if interest rates stay higher.Evolving our near-term scenariosThe opinions expressed are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions.This material repreThe op

57、inions expressed are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions.This material represensents an assessment of the market environment ts an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of

58、 future results.at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.Sources:BlackRock Investment Institute,December 2024.Notes:Our five scenarios here can be represented as nodes on different pathways.The arrows indicate our expectation for U.S.e

59、quity and Treasury returns in each scenario,as two examples.Two arrows represents that a larger relative move is expected in this scenario than a single arrow.We only show U.S.equities and Treasuries but have run this analysis across several asset classes.For illustrative purposes only.StocksBondsU.

60、S.returnsRescued hard landingRate hikes overwhelm a broad-based AI-driven growth boost.Inflation falls below target.Central banks deliver deep rate cuts.U.S.corporate strengthU.S.growth moderates,but corporate profits remain strong.The AI-led rally broadens out and U.S.stocks outperformHigh rates,ha

61、rd landingSticky inflation rules out rate cuts,and strong demand could trigger further hikes.Growth slows sharply.AI valuations hit hard.Subdued growth,stubborn inflationGrowth slows to a lower trend pace,inflation is sticky above target and policy rates stay higher.Will growth be structurally weake

62、r than before the pandemic?Will there be a recession in the next 12 months?Are AI valuations ahead of fundamentals?Easing supply constraints boost growthUpside growth surprise from labor and/or productivity gains from AI adoption.Inflation eases,policy rates are cut sharply.YesWill overall yields be

63、 higher than current market pricing?NoYesNoYesNoYesNoFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-7/188Theme 1Financing the futureWeve laid

64、 out how todays investment environment is one of major transformation and one that puts greater onus on markets to enforce discipline.This makes capital markets core to the building of this transformation.Sizable capital will be needed as the transformation unfolds,and that investment is happening n

65、ow.Major tech companies are starting to rival the U.S.government on research and development spending.But its not just about the rise of AI and its buildout via data centers.Meeting growing energy demand(think solar farms,power grids,oil and gas)will generate investment of US$3.5 trillion per year t

66、his decade,according to the BlackRock Investment Institute Transition Scenario.And governments are limited in how much they can support such investment and infrastructure upgrades.We see capital markets deepening including in emerging markets to help channel money seeking new opportunities and sourc

67、es of return.Public markets have benefitted so far,hosting companies that have already benefitted from the transformation by capturing new revenue pools,notably in AI.We also see private markets playing a pivotal role,allowing portfolios to gain unique exposure to the transformation as public market

68、s can only fund some of it.For example,private markets can offer exposure to early-stage growth companies driving AI adoption and to vital infrastructure projects.We think the future of finance a mega force on its own will be shaped by non-bank lenders increasingly funding such large-scale projects.

69、This highlights why private market assets under management are expected to roughly double by 2029 from 2023 levels,Preqin data show.See the chart.We think this shows how finance itself is changing and innovating rapidly as activities that were previously bundled together in single institutions,like

70、banks,are unbundled.Chart takeaway:Getting inflation all the way back down to target the dotted green line would require the Fed to deal a significant blow to the economy.Forward looking estimates may not come to pass.Forward looking estimates may not come to pass.Source:BlackRock Investment Institu

71、te,Preqin,December 2024.Notes:The chart shows the total assets under management in private market funds with forecasts from 2024 onwards in Preqins“Future of Alternatives 2029”report.On the risePrivate market assets under management,2015-2029Chart takeaway:Private assets have become a growing share

72、of financial markets.We see private markets playing a critical role in the transformation ahead sticking to public markets doesnt fully capture this broadening opportunity set,in our view.Investment implications Sizable capital will be needed as the transformation unfolds,and that investment is happ

73、ening now.We think private markets will play a vital role in financing the waves of transformation.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.$0$5$10$15$20$2

74、520152017201920212023202520272029Trillion(USD)Private equityVenture capitalPrivate debtReal estateInfrastructurePreqin forecastBIIM1224U/M-4071082-8/189Theme 2Rethinking investingTransformation raises questions about how to build portfolios.An ever-changing outlook calls for an ever-evolving portfol

75、io.It calls into question many long-held investing principles,including the idea of a neutral“benchmark”portfolio like the traditional 60/40 portfolio mix of stocks and bonds.We think investors should broaden out where they invest.That may include private markets,notably private credit and infrastru

76、cture,as outlined on the previous page.And we think investors should rely less on broad asset classes and seek out thematic opportunities shaped by the structural shifts transforming economies and sectors,like the rise of AI.See page 11.This makes getting granular with views key,such as investing at

77、 company rather than regional level in places like Europe.Thats especially true as the transformation could change the economys makeup,reconfiguring entire industries.Financial markets themselves are also being reshaped as some sectors grow rapidly and others fade,changing the composition of benchma

78、rk indexes.The S&P 500 looks very different from just five years ago,with far more concentration.See the chart.Another change to traditional portfolio construction?We think more weight should be put on tactical views now.In the past,when returns fluctuated around a stable long-term trend,it made sen

79、se to put a high share of a portfolios risk budget into long-term allocations to smooth out those fluctuations.Now,no single portfolio will likely work across all scenarios over time.The upshot:Investors will need to take a dynamic approach.We think active strategies and investment expertise can pro

80、vide an advantage in this environment.More broadly,todays financial plumbing may need a redesign to enable all this.Some is already happening,with new innovative tools becoming more widely available.Chart takeaway:Getting inflation all the way back down to target the dotted green line would require

81、the Fed to deal a significant blow to the economy.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.It is not possible to invest in an index.Indexes are Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.It is not possible to invest in an index.Indexes are unmanaged and perf

82、ormance does not account for fees.unmanaged and performance does not account for fees.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from LSEG Datastream,December 2024.Notes:The chart shows the combined market capitalization(cap)of the magnificent 7 stocks(Amazon,Apple,Google,Meta,Microsoft,Nvidia

83、and Tesla)as a share of the S&P 500s total market cap.The chart sums up the market cap of each stock as they went public,capturing Amazon from 1997 onwards,Nvidia from 1999,Google from 2004,Tesla from 2010 and Meta from 2012.Ever-bigger share“Magnificent 7”market cap as a share of the S&P 500,1995-2

84、024Chart takeaway:The“magnificent 7”of mostly mega cap tech shares now dominate the S&P 500,making up almost a third of the indexs market capitalization.This shows how quickly economies and markets can be transformed in this environment.Investment implications We think investors should focus more on

85、 themes and less on broad asset classes.Greater volatility points to a need to be more dynamic with portfolio allocations.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%199520002005201020152020ShareFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,Q

86、UALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-9/1810Theme 3Staying pro-riskWhere does all this leave us?We stay pro-risk,starting with our confidence in U.S.corporate strength and outperformance.U.S.equities have persistently outpaced their global peers.See the chart.We

87、 think that could continue.Why?The U.S.benefits more from mega forces,driving corporate earnings.That is supported by a favorable growth outlook plus potential tax cuts and regulatory easing.Some U.S.equity valuation measures whether price-to-earnings ratios or equity risk premiums look rich relativ

88、e to history.But they may not tell the full story.The equity markets changing sectoral composition reflects the transformation taking hold.So,comparing todays index to that of the past is like comparing apples to oranges.Plus,valuations tend to matter more for returns over a long-term horizon than i

89、n the near term.We think the AI mega force will benefit U.S.stocks more and thats why we stay overweight,particularly relative to international peers such as European stocks.U.S.outperformance does not extend to Treasuries,in our view.Potentially growing U.S.budget deficits add to ongoing fiscal pre

90、ssures,so we favor government bonds in other developed markets.We also prefer corporate bonds over long-term Treasuries as they offer quality income given relatively healthy corporate balance sheets.Globally,Japan stands out for its corporate reforms and the return of mild inflation,driving corporat

91、e pricing power and earnings growth.Structural challenges keep us underweight European equities.Yet we find opportunities at the sector or company level.Longer term,we see some emerging markets like India well positioned to capitalize on mega forces and navigate U.S.-China competition.In China,fisca

92、l policy is turning supportive,yet the threat of tariffs keeps us cautious.The upshot:We are risk-on for now but stay nimble.Key signposts for changing our view include any surge in long-term bond yields or an escalation in trade protectionism.Chart takeaway:Getting inflation all the way back down t

93、o target the dotted green line would require the Fed to deal a significant blow to the economy.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.It is not possible to invest

94、directly in an index.Indexes are unmanaged and performance does not account for fees.Indexes are unmanaged and performance does not account for fees.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from LSEG Datastream.The charts show the indexed performance of U.S.equities compared to the rest of th

95、e world.Index proxies used:MSCI USA,MSCI ACWI ex.USA.Hardening divergenceU.S.equity performance vs.the rest of the world,2010-2024Chart takeaway:U.S.equities have outperformed the rest of the world,fueled by robust corporate earnings.We see divergences across markets widening as mega forces reshape

96、economies and sectors creating opportunities.Investment implications We have more conviction in U.S.equities outperforming their international peers.We recognize valuations are rich in U.S.equities but dont see them as a near-term market driver.0100200300400500600700201020152020Index level(2010=100)

97、Total return U.S.Rest of the world100200300400201020152020EarningsFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-10/1811AIs great promise is

98、driving a wave of innovation and investment.Its rapid evolution presents significant opportunities,but the trajectory to eventual transformation is uncertain.Our three-phase framework buildout,adoption,and transformation helps us track this evolution and adapt portfolios along the way.We are still i

99、n AIs buildout phase a pillar of a broader infrastructure boom.This phase involves massive investment in data centers,chips and power systems in an effort to meet the needs of AI models that have been growing exponentially in size and complexity.See the chart.We estimate spending on this infrastruct

100、ure could top$700 billion by 2030,equivalent to 2%of U.S.GDP.Investment on this scale creates a vital role for capital markets and an opportunity for investors,in our view.Yet such growth brings challenges,such as strain on energy grids.Efficiency gains may later offset some of the initial spike in

101、energy demand.Questions around AI overinvestment are valid.Yet we think this should be assessed in aggregate,given AIs potential to unlock new revenue streams across the whole economy.Mega cap tech does not look overextended for now.And market concentration does not,in our view,imply market fragilit

102、y if it is driven by transformation.As AI adoption broadens,app developers may drive the next wave of growth.Future winners may emerge in unexpected areas:productivity gains in one sector may drive value creation elsewhere.Signposts to watch include emerging revenue streams and cross-sector impacts.

103、We believe private markets could provide a way to capture future winners before they go public.Tracking AIs evolutionSource:BlackRock Investment Institute,with data from Epoch as processed by Our World in data,October 2024.Note:The chart shows the increase in parameters in notable AI systems.Paramet

104、ers can be thought of as dials that are tweaked as the model learns settings to understand patterns in historical data.Each dot represents an AI system covered in the Epoch database.Data retrieved from https:/ourworldindata.org/grapher/exponential-growth-of-parameters-in-notable-ai-systems and is ba

105、sed on Epoch AI,Parameter,Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning.Published online at epochai.org at https:/epochai.org/data/epochdb/visualization.Focus AIExponential growthParameters in notable AI systems,1950-2024Chart takeaway:AI models have seen exponential growth from 10 parameters in the 1

106、950s to 1 trillion today driving leaps in capability.Yet further scaling comes with challenges.Investment implications The AI theme has broadened out from our original concentrated AI scenario.We see private markets as key not just in funding infrastructure but also in capturing potential future AI

107、winners.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.Raffaele SaviGlobal Head of Systematic BlackRock AI has the potential to become a bigger revenue pool than

108、 search and cloud.”1 trillion10 billion100 million1 million10,000100119501968198620042022Parameters(log scale)Reached 10 billion in ten yearsReached 10 million in 60 yearsBIIM1224U/M-4071082-11/1812Infrastructure is at the intersection of mega forces like AI.The AI buildout is creating a huge and im

109、mediate need for data centers.Demand for new-build green infrastructure is skyrocketing as countries and tech companies race to reduce emissions.Aging populations in developed markets,rising urbanization in emerging markets and rewiring global supply chains are also shaping infrastructure needs.Priv

110、ate markets can be a way to get exposure to this growing demand though they are complex and not suitable for all investors.They can help bridge the gap between the massive funding needs and what governments can afford alone given high public debt levels.With banks reining in lending,we think compani

111、es are likely to turn to the capital markets,private lending and other non-traditional sources of credit.The divergence in how private markets have reacted to higher interest rates has shaped our investment views on a strategic horizon of five years and longer.Within equity-like growth private marke

112、ts,private equity and real estate valuations have peaked after decades of falling financing costs.See the chart.Thats why we have a relative preference for infrastructure equity such as stakes in airports and data centers as we see fewer signs of lofty valuations.Infrastructure investments,whose cas

113、h flows are often tied to inflation,can help cushion portfolios against the higher inflation we expect over the medium term.They can also be less sensitive to higher interest rates.Infrastructure for the long termPast performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.Past performa

114、nce is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,December 2024,with data from NCREIF,EDHEC and LCD.Note:The chart shows the cumulative change in the standard measure of valuations across infrastructure equity,private equity and real estate.Infrastruc

115、ture equity and private equity valuations are represented as enterprise value/EBITDA,and real estate valuation is represented as market value/net operating income.Focus InfrastructureInfrastructure stands outChange in private market valuations,2001-2024Chart takeaway:Within equity-like growth privat

116、e markets,private equity and real estate valuations have peaked after decades of falling financing costs.We see fewer signs of lofty valuations in infrastructure equity.Investment implications We favor infrastructure equity on a strategic horizon of five years and longer as a potential beneficiary o

117、f mega forces.Private markets can help bridge the gap between needed infrastructure and what governments and banks can finance alone.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER P

118、ERMITTED COUNTRIES.0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%200220062010201420182022Change in valuationReal estatePrivate equityInfrastructure equityRaj RaoFounding Partner,President&Chief Operating Officer,Global Infrastructure Partners,a part of BlackRock Infrastructure provides long-term cash flows that could b

119、enefit as inflation proves persistent.”BIIM1224U/M-4071082-12/1813Elevated global tensions are accelerating the rewiring of supply chains see the chart and the formation of competing geopolitical and economic blocs.A second Trump administration is likely to reinforce those trends.We see that playing

120、 out in tech,energy and financial markets.U.S.-China competition is set to intensify in 2025 as tariffs and policies focused on decoupling strategic sectors especially advanced technologies like semiconductors accelerate.Any competitive edge in the race to build out AI will also be determined by the

121、 speed of building infrastructure like electricity grids and data centers.Energy has become a key front.Chinas cheap low-carbon technology,especially electric vehicles,solar and batteries,is putting pressure on companies in other major economies,spurring a protectionist response.European automakers

122、are feeling the pressure as Brussels tries to coordinate a response.These dynamics will increase competition for resources.Emerging markets(EM)are key suppliers of commodities required for the low-carbon transition,such as copper,and growing markets for exports.That highlights their potential influe

123、nce,with many key EMs multi-aligned among competing trading blocs.The rewiring of globalization is also playing out in reserve currencies.As the world divides into competing blocs,and the U.S.and Western governments lean on sanctions and other restrictions for their policy response,some countries ar

124、e shifting their reserves out of U.S.dollars into gold and other assets while increasingly conducting trade finance in non-dollar currencies.Intensifying fragmentationFocus GeopoliticsInvestment implications We think a second Trump administration could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and econom

125、ic competition.Energy and low-carbon technology is now a key front in this competition and is shaking up companies globally.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED

126、COUNTRIES.Tom DonilonChairman BlackRock Investment Institute Geopolitical risk is structurally elevated,and a series of shocks hang over the global economy.”Source:BlackRock Investment Institute,IMF,with data from UN Global Platform and PortWatch,December 2024.Note:The chart shows the seven-day movi

127、ng average of the daily transit trade volume in metric tons through two global shipping chokepoints the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope.Rerouting tradeDaily trade transit volume in metric tons,2023-2024Chart takeaway:Rising geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is rerouting trade shipments a

128、way from the Suez Canal just one example of how todays heightened geopolitical risk is reshaping economic activity.Cape of Good HopeSuez Canal024681020232024MillionsBIIM1224U/M-4071082-13/1814The erratic correlation between stock and bond returns has defined the new regime and government bonds have

129、become a less reliable cushion against equity selloffs as a result.We see the potential for other diversifiers,old like gold and new like bitcoin,to step in.This is not about replacing long-term bonds to find diversification but instead seeking new and distinct sources of risk and return.Bitcoins po

130、tential as a new diversifier stems from its unique value drivers:the potential to appreciate over time when its predetermined supply is met with growing demand and demand is based on investor belief in bitcoins potential to become more widely adopted as a payment technology.Case in point:The run-up

131、to record highs after the U.S.election reflects investors upping the chance of greater adoption given President-elect Trumps past support for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.Those distinct drivers should make it less correlated with stocks and other risk assets in the long term.The correlation be

132、tween bitcoin and equity returns has typically been low in the short history we have even with the occasional spike.See the chart.Bitcoins risk and return profile would change if it does achieve broad adoption.At that point,it may be more suited as a tactical hedge against specific risks,like gold i

133、s.Gold has surged as investors seek to bolster portfolios against higher inflation,and some central banks seek alternatives to major reserve currencies.We think it is key to monitor how the performance of these alternatives changes relative to traditional asset classes and be nimble in using them.Ne

134、w diversifiers neededPast performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.It is not possible to invest directly in an Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.Indexes are unmanaged and performance

135、 does not account for fees.index.Indexes are unmanaged and performance does not account for fees.Source:BlackRock Investment Institute with data from Bloomberg,December 2024.Notes:For volatility,we show the two-year rolling volatility of weekly returns.The correlation is also a two-year rolling wind

136、ow of bitcoin returns against the Bloomberg Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap Index of global equities.Focus DiversifiersVolatile and uncorrelatedBitcoin volatility and correlation with global equities,2014-2024Chart takeaway:Bitcoins correlation to global equities remains limited,even with the oc

137、casional spike.Given its unique value drivers,we see no intrinsic reason why bitcoin should be correlated with major risk assets over the long term.Investment implications We see the potential for assets like bitcoin to provide distinct sources of risk and return.With traditional diversifiers like b

138、onds no longer working as before,investors have more reasons to be dynamic with portfolios.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.Samara CohenChief Inves

139、tment Officer of ETFs and Index Investments BlackRock Bitcoins role as a store of value and payments system make it a potential diversifier.”-15%0%15%30%45%60%40%60%80%100%120%140%201420162018202020222024CorrelationVolatilityVolatilityCorrelation with equity returnsBIIM1224U/M-4071082-14/1815ViewsOu

140、r scenarios framework helps ground our views on a tactical horizon.We have done so in 2024 as our concentrated AI scenario evolved to our U.S.corporate strength scenario.Yet we could change our stance quickly if a different scenario were to look more likely.We have seen U.S.equity returns broaden ou

141、t in 2024 as the AI theme has created opportunities across sectors,such as utilities,and we increase our overweight.We stay overweight Japanese stocks on both a tactical and strategic horizon given ongoing corporate reforms,and the return of mild inflation driving wage growth,corporate pricing power

142、 and earnings.In emerging markets,we favor countries at the crosscurrent of mega forces like India and Saudi Arabia.On a strategic horizon,we like sectors including tech and healthcare.We also still like quality income in short-term credit on a tactical horizon and short-term government bonds.We lik

143、e long-term government bonds in the UK,where we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy.In private markets,we stick to our long-term preference for infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces.For income,we prefer d

144、irect lending given more attractive yields in private credit.Staying dynamicTactical ReasonsU.S.equitiesWe see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors.We tap into beneficiaries outside the tech sector.Robust economic growth,broad earnings growth and a quality tilt underpin

145、 our conviction and overweight in U.S.stocks versus other regions.We see valuations for big tech backed by strong earnings,and less lofty valuations for other sectors.Japanese equities A brighter outlook for Japans economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns.Y

146、et the potential drag on earnings from a stronger yen is a risk.Selective in fixed incomePersistent deficits and sticky inflation in the U.S.make us more positive on fixed income elsewhere,notably Europe.We are underweight long-term U.S.Treasuries and like UK gilts instead.We also prefer European cr

147、edit both investment grade and high yield over the U.S.on cheaper valuations.Big callsStrategicReasonsInfrastructure equity and private creditWe see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces.We think private credit will earn lending share as banks r

148、etreat and at attractive returns.Fixed income granularityWe prefer short-and medium-term investment grade credit,which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit.We also like short-term government bonds in the U.S.and euro area and UK gilts overall.Equity granularityWe

149、 favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both.EMs at the cross current of mega forces like India and Saudi Arabia offer opportunities.In DM,we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook.Note:Views are from a U.S.dollar perspective,December 202

150、4.This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds,strate

151、gy or security.Our highest conviction views on tactical(6-12 month)and strategic(long-term)horizons,December 2024FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISRAEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.B

152、IIM1224U/M-4071082-15/1816Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook and whats in the price.The table below reflects this and,importantly,leaves aside the opportunity for alpha,or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns.We dont think this environment is

153、 conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes but creates more space for alpha.EquitiesViewCommentaryUnited StatesWe are overweight as the AI theme and earnings growth broaden.Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported by tech companies delivering on earnings.Resilient growth and Fed rate

154、 cuts support sentiment.Risks include any long-term yield surges or escalating trade protectionism.EuropeWe are underweight.Valuations are fair.A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery.Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious.UKWe are neut

155、ral.Political stability could improve investor sentiment.Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term.JapanWe are overweight.A brighter outlook for Japans economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns.Yet a stronger yen draggin

156、g on earnings is a risk.Emerging marketsWe are neutral.The growth and earnings outlook is mixed.We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high.ChinaWe are modestly overweight.Chinas fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth,but we think stocks are at attractive v

157、aluations to DM shares.We stand ready to pivot.We are cautious long term given Chinas structural challenges.Tactical granular viewsSix-to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs.broad global asset classes by level of conviction,December 2024Past performance is not a reliable indicator of curre

158、nt or future results.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.The statements on alpha do not consider fees.The statements on alpha do not consider fees.Note:Views are from a U.S.dollar perspective.This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not

159、 intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results.This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund,strategy or security.Fixed incomeViewCommentaryShort U.S.TreasuriesWe are neutral.Markets are pricing in fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and their p

160、olicy rate expectations are now roughly in line with our views.Long U.S.TreasuriesWe are underweight.Persistent budget deficits and geopolitical fragmentation could drive term premium up over the near term.We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding more term premium.Glo

161、bal inflation-linked bondsWe are neutral.We see higher medium-term inflation,but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term.Euro area govt bondsWe are neutral.Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs.Political uncertainty r

162、emains a risk to fiscal sustainability.UK giltsWe are overweight.Gilt yields offer attractive income,and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy.Japanese govt bondsWe are underweight.Stock returns look more attractive to us.We see some of the

163、least attractive returns in JGBs.China govt bondsWe are neutral.Bonds are supported by looser policy.Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper.U.S.agency MBSWe are neutral.We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG.Short-termIG c

164、reditWe are overweight.Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk.Long-term IG creditWe are underweight.Spreads are tight,so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective.We prefer Europe over the U.S.Global high yieldWe are neutral.Spreads are tight,but the tot

165、al income makes it more attractive than IG.We prefer Europe.Asia creditWe are neutral.We dont find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive.EM hard currencyWe are neutral.The asset class has performed well due to its quality,attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts.We think those ra

166、te cuts may soon be paused.EM local currencyWe are neutral.Yields have fallen closer to U.S.Treasury yields,and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply.UnderweightNeutralOverweight Previous view FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,ISR

167、AEL,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BIIM1224U/M-4071082-16/18General disclosure:General disclosure:This material is intended for information purposes only,and does not constitute investment advice,a recommendat

168、ion or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer,solicitation,purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.The opinions expressed are as of December 2024 and are subject to change without notic

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