國防軍工鍛鑄行業深度報告：產能釋放或超預期供不應求業績改善-20211230（18頁）.pdf

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1、 1 / 19 Table_Main | 20211230 Table_Title Table_Summary 10 100-20073 15 乩 2021Q3 12% 25% 23% 棬2021-2023 Table_Invest | Table_PicQuote Wind Table_DocReport 2021.12.06 Table_Forecast EPS PE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2022E 600765 46.05 48427.96 0.37 0.74 1.08 124.46 62.41 42.45 300775 47.58 23575.8

2、9 0.41 0.86 1/17 116.05 54.42 40.14 605123 136.73 14766.84 1.85 2.43 3/38 73.89 56.29 40.49 688239 67.61 9465.40 0.69 0.93 1.32 97.99 72.41 51.40 Wind -6%4%13%22%32%12/29 3/30 6/29 9/28 12/28 300 2 / 19 1. . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 4 1.3/. 5 1.4/ . 5 2. . 6 2.1紂 . 7 2.2 . 8 3. . 9 3.121 . 9 3.2 . 11 3.3 . 1

3、1 3.4 . 13 3.5 . 14 3.6 . 16 3.7 . 18 4. . 18 1/ . 6 239.44% . 6 3 . 10 4Q3/ . 10 5 . 10 6 . 12 7 . 12 8 . 12 9 . 12 10 . 13 112021 . 13 12400MN . 14 13NKMZ750MN . 14 142021 . 16 15Ring . 16 16 . 17 172021 . 17 1 . 4 rQtNtRsMmQwOnPqMoPqMmR9P9RaQoMpPmOnPiNrRoPiNnNnR7NrQnMMYoPoRNZpPsN 3 / 19 2 . 5 3/

4、. 7 4World Air Forces 2021 . 9 5 . 11 644.29% . 15 7RingCasing . 17 8 . 18 4 / 19 1. 1.1 Aerospace manufacture and Design 26%37%44% 1 / Porosity (Grain Structure) 側 (Post-forming) 洦 洦 踴 (Tooling Costs) (Alloy Selection) (Complexity) (Accuracy) Aerospace manufacture and Designtexmoprecisioncastings 1

5、.2 豸豸豸豸 5 / 19 2 豸 飬 1.3/ /絲沿漰/漰 1.4/ /600 6 / 19 1/ Wind, (Y12Z9EC120)(-6-20)-15-16-10-20鶼(CJ6K8L15)()() 2. Roland Berger2018 39.44%2011 2018 4.5%201820234.2%() 2 39.44% Roland Berger 7 / 19 2.1紂 18漰1820201320.7201914518.98% 15%17110020191285.614.38% 3/ 2020() % GE () 220.0 +33 82%41% Pratt &Whitne

6、y 172.0 -17 2020F-135綥 Safran (彎) 162.7 -33 Woodward () 159.1 -15 Honeywell 115.4 -18 19Tru-Trak Flight Systems Precision Castparts Corp() 73 -29 2016372 Rolls Royce () 65 -20 150100 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries () 61.7 -0 F-35F-15767.777A319-A321 Howmet Aerospace 45.9 -25 Arconic Eaton 40.65 -13 202

7、1Cobham Mission Systems Gkn aerospace (GKN) 37.3 -27 17672018Melrose Spirit Aerosapce System 34.05 -57 737787A350 Kawasaki Heavy Industries 29 -21 767777 787ERJ170175190195 8 / 19 Triumph Group 29 -14 Premium Aerotec GmbH 22.4 / A400M Alenia Aermacchi 22.9 -1 2016 Alenia AermacchiLeonardos Aircraft

8、Stelia Aerospace () 18 / Textron () ,bell 12.6 -21 2.2 廯沢Precision Castparts Corp19491986TRW 1999 Wyman-Gordon 2011 2012Titanium Metals Centra Industries Inc2020紐PPC 100-200 73 15 9 / 19 3. World Air Forces 2021 13232 25% 4143 8%32606% 10 10 65% 3500 籨1.75-295500-30SM 5000F-35II 1.1-1040006500-10 1.

9、8 2.8 3500 -103500*1.8+2.8/2=80506%9%15%20%20%-25%12%8050*12%=966-20 4World Air Forces 2021 () 65% 664 0 0 / 260 789 253 F16 315 429 0 F-15 45 560 319 F/A-18 0 196 127 F-22 19 178 97 F-22 118 312 85 A-10 0 152 99 B-2 115 749 372 E/A-18G 264 932 342 A400M 3 625 403 A400M 405 2766 1393 F/A-18E/F 902 5

10、434 2630 UH-60 6119 World Air Forces 2021 3.1 21 18漰 10 / 19 Textron()2020 80 19 21% 89%2019 Textron() 101.6 1.26 71.62%2021Q3() 91.07 2020 90.12 65.22 71.62% 3 4Q3/ Wind, Wind, 2021 126.72% 120.38%57.2%86.26%52.14%21Q336.03%17-7.96%14.49% 5 Wind, 01020304050607080 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3(1)

11、012345672016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 -20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 11 / 19 3.2 +仯 棬3231% 49% 167%Q312%25%23% 5 +9% +21% +20% +14% -5% +46% +31% +49% +167% +16% +47% -2% +12% +25% +23% Wind 3.3 199674.53%63.18%21H133.0335.92%74.53%(13.7)(11.17)(5.42 ) 28 63.18%25.47%35.47%21H111

12、.29 35.47% 25.47%(5.37)(5.84)6.0653.68% 12 / 19 6 7 Wind, Wind, Q3 20.95.5%127.76202165.2224.36%202066.986.09126.72% 2016-2018 繫(2020-1.1)1)2015 6.12 1.72)2017 .湫202066.89/趭1157770.83%201718.47% 2021Q3 8.37% Q3 24.36% Q3 118.25% 171.8%21Q311.14% 8 9 Wind, Wind, 0102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 201

13、9 2020 2021H1 -20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2020Q3( (yoy(%) yoy(%)0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%024682016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3() ()() (%)(%) (%)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3(%) (%) 13 / 19 3.4 豸201684.23%2021H195.06%Q347.23%36.02% 10 112021 Wind, Wind

14、, 400MN2021塱A380750MN 400MN 20217.6690.14%20206. 152.76120.38% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%012345672016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1() ()() (%)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3() ()YOY(%) YOY(%) 14 / 19 12 400MN 13NKMZ 750MN Win

15、d, Wind, 180 顣2016 3 飬塱滮衣 3.5 20062020 2020 2.98 2.45 0.89 38.97%32.00%11.61%44.29%16.36%20.01%59% 15 / 19 6 44.29% 2021H1 2021H1 38.97% 44.29% 塢 / / 繒 11.61% 20.01% 豸塢 32.00% 16.36% 9.78% 27.68% Wind飬 21 2021Q3 11.91 63.24% 2020 10.28 57.2% 1.922016 6.89% 2021 H1 38.97% 16 / 19 44.29% 142021 Wind,

16、3.6 Ring()CasingringCasingRingRing 15Ring , 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024681012142016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3() () YOY(%) YOY(%) 17 / 19 7 RingCasing Ring Casing 50-100 6-8 + + 飬 2021 Q36.2839.05%20206.71 86.26%2020 28.84%10.84%2021Q332.62%14.48% 16 172021 Wind, Wind, 0%5%10%15%0.000.200.402017 2018

17、2019 2020 2021Q3() ()() (%)(%) (%)-40%60%160%260%-2024682017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3() ()YOY(%) YOY(%) 18 / 19 3.7 8 Table_Forecast EPS PE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2022E 600765 0.37 0.74 1.08 124.46 62.41 42.45 300775 0.41 0.86 1/17 116.05 54.42 40.14 605123 1.85 2.43 3/38 73.89 56.29 40.49 688239 0.69 0.93 1.32 97.99 72.41 51.40 Wind, 4.