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1、CONSUMER NAVIGATOR JANUARY 2025 WAVE 59American MindsetABOUT THIS STUDYSurvey MethodologySurvey Methodology The survey was conducted by dentsu via an online research panel The survey was fielded in the first week of January 2025,before the presidential inauguration.Distributed among a random sample

2、of 1,000 U.S.respondents 18 years of age or older.Controls for nationally representative weighting across age,gender,region,race and ethnicity(using the latest publicly available U.S.Census numbers)020303WHERE WEVE BEEN:THE PAST FOUR WAVESSEPTEMBEROCTOBERNOVEMBERJANUARYDIVIDED CONSUMER SENTIMENTSome

3、 feel better about the current shape of the economy and the future.Still,half think the US is in a recession.Consumers continue to worry about affordability and prices.As US election draws close,Americans are ramping up time spend with election-focused content.CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE,WHILE CURRENTL

4、Y FEELING BADMore Americans feel the US economy will get better in the near futureMore Americans feel their personal financial situation will get better in the near futureHowever,consumers continue to feel their current circumstances both economic and personal are worse off.DIVIDED CONSUMER SENTIMEN

5、TConsumer perspective is divided on the current shape of the US economy.Half of consumers think the US is in a recession.Division is also reflected in how consumers feel about their personal finances.A month out from the election,Americans are spending more media time keeping up with coverage.PESSIM

6、ISM TOWARDS THE PRESENT AND THE FUTUREThe assessment of the current economy has significantly worsened.After an upward trend in the Fall,optimism towards the direction of the economy has also decreased.Optimism about personal finances has also worsened.In particular,Millennials whose finances have p

7、ossibly taken a greater hit during the holidays report that their ability to afford necessary expenses is declining.04042025 kicked off with a worsened sentiment on the current state of the US economy.13%13%13%13%13%13%11%11%31%31%30%30%29%29%28%28%35%35%36%36%38%38%42%42%22%22%21%21%20%20%19%19%Sep

8、temberOctoberNovemberJanuaryRolling 3-Month Avg.:How Consumers Feel About the Shape Of the US EconomyTerrible shapeNot very good shapeGood shapeExcellent shapeThe 3 months average of consumers thinking the economy is either in not very or outright terrible shape is above half the population of the c

9、ountry,something we had not seen in the Fall of 2024.Interestingly,there is a gap between how consumers feel about the state of the economy and how financial indicators on how it is actually doing:it should expand at an upwardly revised pace of 2.3%in 2025(from 2.0%in the December forecast).6 61%:1%

10、:Not good+terrible0505On one hand,Gen Zs assessment has slightly improved.However,the share of Millennials believing the economy is in good or excellent shape has dropped below 50%for the first time in months.Adults over 45 y.o.s assessment of the economy continues to be worse than that of younger A

11、mericans.49%49%42%42%42%42%44%44%51%51%53%53%53%53%47%47%36%36%35%35%31%31%30%30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%SeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg:%Who Feel The US Economy Is In Excellent/Good Shape Gen Z(18-26)Millennials(27-44)Adults 45+0606However,the share of

12、Americans saying the economy is currently in a recession has lowered.12%12%12%12%13%13%12%12%37%37%37%37%37%37%41%41%23%23%23%23%21%21%21%21%27%27%27%27%28%28%26%26%SeptemberOctoberNovemberJanuaryRolling 3-Month Average:Whether the US Economy Is In a RecessionThe economy is already in arecessionThe

13、economy is at the beginningof a recessionThe economy is experiencing adownturn,but not a recessionThe economy is doing just fineLooking at a rolling 3-month average.We see that the share of respondents saying the economy is experiencing a downturn,but not a full-blown recession has increased signifi

14、cantly.0707Over half of Millennials believe the economy is currently in a recession.Despite feeling the economy is worse off,the share of adults over 45 who believe the US is in a recession has significantly decreased.Millennial and Gen Z consumers are most likely to feel the US is in a recession.53

15、%53%53%53%54%54%55%55%56%56%56%56%56%56%54%54%47%47%47%47%43%43%40%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%SeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg:%Who Feel The US Economy Is In a Recession Gen Z(18-26)Millennials(27-44)Adults 45+0808Optimism for the 12-months economic outlo

16、ok has slightly decreased.47%47%48%48%51%51%49%49%27%27%26%26%23%23%22%22%26%26%27%27%26%26%28%28%SeptemberOctoberNovemberJanuaryRolling 3-Month Average:Outlook on the Economic Environment Over Next 6-12 MonthsThe economy will getworseThe economy will remainthe sameThe economy will getbetterThe shar

17、e of Americans thinking the economy will get better over the next 6 to 12 months is back to below 50%.0909Gen Zs and Adult 45+s assessment of the direction of the economy which was already more conservative than Millennials throughout the Fall remains pretty much consistent.Millennials saw the large

18、st drop in economic outlook.48%48%46%46%48%48%47%47%56%56%56%56%59%59%54%54%41%41%44%44%48%48%47%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%SeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg:%Who Feel The US Economy Will Get Better In 6-12 Months Gen Z(18-26)Millennials(27-44)Adults 45

19、+010010Considering their personal finances,some are secure while others are struggling.52%52%52%52%51%51%30%30%30%30%31%31%18%18%17%17%18%18%OctoberNovemberJanuaryI struggled to afford any of my expensesI was only able to afford some of my expensesI was able to afford all my expensesRolling 3-Month

20、Average:Ability to Afford Monthly ExpensesHalf of consumers report that their personal finances are in“good”or“excellent”shape,and the other half describe their financial situation as“not very good”or“terrible.”A similar division is mirrored in consumers ability(or not)to afford essential expenses.1

21、5%15%15%15%13%13%37%37%35%35%37%37%32%32%34%34%35%35%16%16%15%15%15%15%OctoberNovemberJanuaryExcellent shapeGood shapeNot very good shapeTerrible shapeRolling 3-Month Average:Sentiment About Personal Finances011011Adult 45+s feeling towards their personal finance situation is consistent with what th

22、ey had reported in November 2024.Gen Zs sentiment for their personal finances is improving,while Millennials is worsening.44%44%43%43%47%47%61%61%60%60%57%57%49%49%47%47%47%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%OctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg:%Who Feel Their Finances Are In Excel

23、lent/Good Shape Gen Z(18-26)Millennials(27-44)Adults 45+012012This is likely due to the bigger financial toll holiday spending takes on families with kids.Gen Zs ability to afford necessary expenses is increasing,while Millennials is declining.39%39%37%37%37%37%40%40%54%54%52%52%53%53%50%50%57%57%57

24、%57%57%57%55%55%-5%5%15%25%35%45%55%65%SeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg:%Who Were Able To Afford All Expenses This MonthGen Z(18-26)Millennials(27-44)Adults 45+013013Affordability is shaping budgets,with more Americans cutting back where they can.9%10

25、%10%8%9%8%13%10%8%24%23%26%17%18%16%20%16%14%Dining outFast foodTake-out/food deliveryAuto/gasHousehold necessitiesBeauty/groomingGroceriesLuxury goodsHousehold upgradesCategory Purchasers Who Have Done The Following In the Past 30 DaysSeries1Series48%8%10%10%13%13%9%9%9%9%10%10%7%7%7%7%14%14%15%15%

26、19%19%14%14%13%13%14%14%10%10%9%9%Home dcorAt-home EntertainmentClothing&apparelEventsTravelElectronicsFitness/wellnessFurnitureGapGap-15%15%-13%13%-16%16%-9%-9%-7%-6%-6%-6%GapGap-6%-6%-5%-6%-4%-4%-7%-2%Across categories,more consumers are cutting back than increasing their spendingespecially on dis

27、cretionary purchases.As with months prior,the greatest net change to spending stems from out-of-home food categories.On the other end of the spectrum,fitness/wellness continues to be a category resilient to budget cuts.014014As Americans feel their money doesnt go as far,they trade down on essential

28、s.10%10%8%8%11%11%8%8%9%9%9%9%8%8%6%6%8%8%31%31%19%19%21%21%17%17%18%18%17%17%15%15%13%13%14%14%GroceriesHousehold necessitiesLuxury goodsFast foodTake-out/food deliveryBeauty/groomingDining outHome dcorAuto/gasCategory Purchasers Who Have Done The Following In the Past 30 DaysSplurged on expensive

29、or high-quality itemsSwitched to cheaper or bargain items9%9%8%8%7%7%7%7%7%7%6%6%9%9%8%8%16%16%12%12%11%11%11%11%10%10%9%9%9%9%9%9%Clothing&apparelAt-home EntertainmentTravelFitness/wellnessHousehold upgradesFurnitureElectronicsEventsGapGap-21%21%-11%11%-10%-9%-9%-8%-7%-6%-6%GapGap-7%-4%-4%-4%-3%-3%

30、/-1%Shoppers trading down behaviors are shifting to be concentrated on essential purchases like groceries and household necessities.Conversely,there appear to be more“splurge-worthy”categories such as fitness/wellness,electronics,furniture,and household upgrades.015015Trended over time,we see shifts

31、 occurring in consumers spending.Spending on fitness and wellness remains resilient as consumers invest in their health.Conversely,spending on travel and events has shown a downward trend,indicating the end to“revenge spending.”After a sharp decline in spending fast food and home decor spending is s

32、howing a moderate upward trend.-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%MayMayJuneJuneJulyJulyAugustAugustSeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg.:Gap Between Spending More vs.Less On Select CategoriesFast foodGroceriesTravelEventsFitness/wellnessConsumers are pulling away from t

33、ravel and event spend after a robust couple of years.Fitness/wellness has proven resilient as health is prioritized.Spending on fast food is experiencing a sharp decline.Spending on groceries continues to fluctuate.016016Looking ahead,consumers pessimism about their financial situation is softening.

34、24%24%23%23%21%21%17%17%35%35%36%36%37%37%45%45%41%41%41%41%42%42%39%39%SeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3-Month Average:Outlook On Personal Finances Over the Next 30 Days My finances will get betterMy finances will remainthe sameMy finances will get worse17%of c

35、onsumers expect their financial situation to get worse over the next month,a softening from 24%in September.At the same time,fewer are expecting their personal finances to get better compared to the Fall.017017Note:Older generations were excluded from this chart as a majority say their situation wil

36、l“not change.”Both Gen Z and Millennials are less optimistic about personal finances.51%51%50%50%52%52%48%48%56%56%57%57%57%57%52%52%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%SeptemberSeptemberOctoberOctoberNovemberNovemberJanuaryJanuaryRolling 3 Month Avg:%Who Feel Their Finances Will Get Better Next MonthGen

37、Z(18-26)Millennials(27-44)018018018IMPLICATIONS FOR MARKETERSSegment emotional messaging to meet the moment.The economy feels profoundly different across generations.Younger consumers are more likely to think we already are in a recession,while older Americans are less optimistic when it comes to th

38、e direction of the economy.Design segmented messaging that speaks directly to each cohorts unique economic lived experience-not generic platitudes.Make economizing feel aspirational.Consumers are trading down strategically,not surrendering quality.Craft communications that frame cheaper as smarter.O

39、r evaluate product approaches with tiered offerings or entry-level products that maintain quality perception.Leverage psychological ROI to create resilience.Even amid budget cuts,consumers are protecting certain discretionary spend categories,such as fitness/wellness.Even those brands outside these

40、resilient categories can borrow positioning.Position products as essential investments in personal optimization-not luxuries,but strategic and needed life upgrades.019019Meet Our Editorial TeamJack BoitaniVP,ContentWhitney FishmanEVP,Futures&Insights,AmericasAsha CowellVP,Integrated StrategyMegan Ke

41、aneVP,Integrated StrategyDirk HerbertGlobal Head of Thought Leadership020About dentsuDentsu is an integrated growth and transformation partner to the worlds leading organizations.Founded in 1901 in Tokyo,Japan,and now present in over 145 countries and regions,it has a proven track record of nurturin

42、g and developing innovations,combining the talents of its global network of leadership brands to develop impactful and integrated growth solutions for clients.Dentsu delivers end-to-end experience transformation(EX)by integrating its services across Media,CXM and Creative,while its business transformation(BX)mindset pushes the boundaries of transformation and sustainable growth for brands,people and society.Dentsu,innovating to impact.https:/