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1、Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient SolutionsW H I T E P A P E RJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 5In collaboration with Oliver WymanImages:Midjourney,Getty ImagesDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The fi

2、ndings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.202

3、5 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions2ContentsForewo

4、rdExecutive summary1 Preparing for the climate-induced health crisis1.1 Quantifying the impact of future climate events on public health1.2 Implications for population health and well-being,including global economic impact2 The potential to mitigate the health and economic impacts of climate change2

5、.1 Assessing the health and economic impacts of interventions2.2 The potential to reduce climates impact on health by 20502.3 Mitigation strategies for health and economic impacts by diseases3 Unlocking innovation across life sciences and technology3.1 Pivotal role of life sciences innovators in cli

6、mate and health solutions3.2 Level of investment needed and estimated returns3.3 Overcoming roadblocks that hinder development of new climate and health solutions3.4 Life sciences innovation for health systems resilience and equity3.5 Avenues for further research:how climate affects non-communicable

7、 diseasesConclusionAppendix:Methodology and assumptionsOverview1 Starting point:highest burden climate-induced diseases2 Prioritization of unmet medical needs by disease3 Building investment cases for how to address unmet medical needs and produce step-change impact reductionsContributorsEndnotes456

8、679911132121222228303132323334354041Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions3ForewordClimate change is a health emergency.We are on track for a world that is more than 2C warmer than today.This will result in an increased frequency of climate events including floods,droughts

9、,heatwaves,wildfires and tropical storms,as well as longer-term changes such as saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels.These manifestations will have a profound impact on peoples health with an estimated additional 14.5 million deaths and$12.5 trillion in economic costs between today and 2050.Vu

10、lnerable populations the least responsible for the climate crisis will bear the brunt of the consequences,primarily in less economically developed economies.We need strong mitigation efforts to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change on nature,the economy and people.However,mitigation alone

11、is not enough.The World Economic Forums Climate and Health Initiative focuses on making healthcare systems more resilient and adaptable to the impacts of climate change.In this report,we focus on three key pillars building the evidence for change,advocating for more resilient healthcare systems and

12、incentivizing action.We also illustrate solutions to prevent the most negative consequences of the impending climate crisis and look at opportunities in which the life sciences industry can play a pivotal role.The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that collaboration among policy-makers,industry leaders

13、,academics and civil society can produce solutions that can be deployed rapidly and at scale.The lessons learned from this shock will need to be replicated and amplified to combat the health impact of climate change.Regardless of the solutions,health systems and life sciences innovations need to be

14、mobilized with great urgency,as does the capital required to develop a new portfolio of climate-related products and services.We are confident that the ideas presented through this analysis will inspire leaders to take the decisive,timely and collaborative actions needed.Shyam Bishen Head,Centre for

15、 Health and Healthcare;Member of the Executive Committee,World Economic ForumTerry Stone Global Leader of Health and Life Sciences,Oliver WymanHealthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions January 2025Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions4Executive sum

16、maryClimate change is already causing global public health challenges.Drought in eastern Africa has affected more than 10 million people.1 Hurricanes in the southern United States have left hundreds dead and thousands homeless.2,3 Mosquitoes are now spreading dengue fever in record numbers beyond th

17、eir usual geographic range.4,5 The World Economic Forums January 2024 report Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health,6 assessed the health and economic impacts of weather events aggravated by global warming,such as flooding,drought,tropical storms and rising sea levels.By 2050,these

18、 impacts are projected to cause an additional 14.5 million deaths and cost the global economy$12.5 trillion.On an annual basis,the losses are comparable to the gross domestic product of Singapore.This report looks at the measures that the global economy can pursue to mitigate these anticipated impac

19、ts.Through investment in vaccines,medicines,medical devices,health-tech and climate services,6.5 million lives could potentially be saved,global economic losses reduced by$5.8 trillion and one billion fewer disability-adjusted life years accrued(DALYs).The active support of life sciences innovators

20、will be crucial and the prospect of such positive impacts should provide incentives for collaboration among governments,academia,civil society and the private sector.The climate crisis will demand global coordination on an even greater scale than was needed during the COVID-19 pandemic.Research cond

21、ucted for this report finds that a series of rapid,focused R&D investments totalling$65 billion over the next five to eight years will be required to mitigate potential climate-related challenges.This amounts to less than 5%of normal annual R&D spending by the pharmaceutical industry.To effectively

22、address the health and associated economic impacts of climate change,it is essential to develop innovative funding mechanisms and harmonized global regulatory frameworks that encourage investment in climate-driven health solutions.This will require coordinated action between life sciences innovators

23、,different government agencies and nations,regulatory bodies and non-governmental organizations(NGOs),as well as health systems actors,investors and academia.Integrating climate and health data will further support innovation,connecting scientists across health and environmental fields,while creatin

24、g platforms and other digital tools to collect and circulate the data.Development of effective distribution systems and infrastructure to disseminate new treatment protocols and raise public awareness will be required to support the transition to resilient healthcare systems.The brunt of climate-dri

25、ven illnesses will be borne by the most vulnerable populations in less-developed economies.Part of the global healthcare challenge will be to tailor treatment protocols and services to local settings,bolster local health systems and address all social determinants of health.A comprehensive and coord

26、inated approach is needed to upgrade the capacity of global health systems to treat diseases most aggravated by climate change.By filling the$65 billion investment gap,6.5 million lives could be saved and global economic losses reduced by$5.8 trillion.R&D investments totalling$65 billion over the ne

27、xt five to eight years will be required to mitigate potential climate-related challenges less than5%of normal annual R&D spending by the pharmaceutical industry.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions5Preparing for the climate-induced health crisis 1Preparing for the climat

28、e crisis requiresinvesting in resilient systems,boostinginnovation and implementing enabling policies.High-priority strategies A short five years from now,the global economy should have cut 45%of its annual greenhouse gas emissions,7 in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate.But as of today,m

29、aintaining flat emissions in the face of economic expansion is the principal achievement of the global community.Even if new low-carbon or no-carbon technology is fully scaled-up in the next two decades,policy-makers and the public need to prepare for the effects of more significant global warming w

30、ith some of the most severe impacts affecting human health.Climate events such as flooding,heatwaves,tropical storms and wildfires are already having a significant impact on public health.The increasing frequency and intensity of these events together with longer term trends such as desertification,

31、rising sea levels and changing habitats for the vectors of disease are likely to trigger a climate health emergency.If the impact of biodiversity loss on health is also factored in,the consequences for human health will potentially be even greater.The complex links between climate change,biodiversit

32、y loss and human health warrant further research.For instance,global warming is already causing8 significant increases in vector-borne diseases such as malaria,dengue fever,Zika,West Nile,Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis,with spikes in populations9 of mosquitos,ticks and other vectors.Hotter

33、 and wetter weather means an increase in the breeding periods of vectors as well as an extension of their geographic range.Already,there have been reported cases of dengue and malaria in North America and Europe and it is probable that those numbers will begin rising quickly.10 This combination of f

34、actors is likely to expose 500 million more people to such diseases by 2050,as disease-carrying vectors begin to be found routinely in Europe and North America.*Relationship between climate impacts and health outcomesUnderstanding the cascading effects of climate events provides valuable insights in

35、to the cause-and-effect relationship between climate impacts and health outcomes,which involve both direct and indirect consequences from these events.More immediate impacts include death,physical injuries,malnutrition,respiratory and cardiovascular ailments and exposure to infectious diseases,inclu

36、ding vector-borne malaria and dengue,plus diseases caused by contaminated water or food,such as cholera and dysentery.Additional long-term and indirect impacts will likely include heat-stress associated risks11 to maternal health that can lead to higher incidences of miscarriage,premature birth,low

37、birth weights and potentially stunted infant growth.12 Stunted development will also be seen among children suffering from drought-related malnutrition.Further impacts include respiratory and cardiovascular diseases triggered by deteriorating air quality from wildfires or prolonged heatwaves.Longer

38、term,climate-related events will impact both individuals and societies.The stress,trauma and displacement caused by climate-related disasters can be expected to produce a surge in mental health illnesses,13 including anxiety,depression 1.1 Quantifying the impact of future climate events on public he

39、althGlobal warming is already causing significant increases in vector-borne diseases 500millionmore people are likely to be exposed to such diseases by 2050.*Core datapoints in Chapters 1 and 2 of this report on climate-related impacts to mortality and economic costs by 2050 are sourced from:World E

40、conomic Forum.(2024).Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health,written in collaboration with Oliver Wyman.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions6and post-traumatic stress disorder.A rise in mental health conditions is a shared outcome of all the climate even

41、ts studied in the original report.Rising climate risks Floods will pose the highest acute risk of climate-induced mortality,forecast to account for 8.5 million additional deaths by 2050.14 The effect of rising ocean temperatures on the frequency and intensity of storms can already be seen in places

42、such as the southern US,which has been hit by a series of severe hurricanes since 2020.This included a rare category 5 storm15 in October 2024 and substantial loss of life from storm surges and flooding.High-tide flooding is now four to 10 times more frequent than it was 50 years16 ago in coastal ar

43、eas.The Earth has already experienced a 20-centimetre rise in average sea levels since 188017 and the rate of increase is accelerating.This has huge implications for tens of millions of people,given that eight of the worlds 10 largest cities are near coasts.18Currently,about 40%of the global populat

44、ion lives within 100 kilometres of the coast,19 increasing their exposure and vulnerability to rising sea levels and other coastal hazards such as severe storms;this puts populations at risk of being displaced.Rising sea levels20 lead to saltwater intrusion,resulting in higher concentrations of calc

45、ium,potassium and magnesium in groundwater.This can contribute to an increase in hypertension and related cardiovascular illnesses,among other health and economic impacts.21Droughts,indirectly linked to extreme heat,are forecast to be the second-highest cause of mortality,with an anticipated 3.2 mil

46、lion additional deaths by 2050.Some 40 million people in Africa are already living in severe drought conditions.Even in more temperate climates,drought is on the rise:40%of the lower 48 states in the US22 have faced drought conditions for the past two years and 17%of the European Union(EU)23 are fac

47、ing drought conditions at the time of writing.As a result,high temperatures are threatening food and water security,causing a rise in malnutrition and diseases connected to contaminated water and food.Prolonged heatwaves a period of abnormally high temperatures relative to seasonal averages have alr

48、eady killed tens of thousands and led to considerable morbidity and productivity losses.In Europe,for instance,more than 62,000 people died in the record heat between late May and early September 2022.24 Heatwaves are predicted to cause the highest global economic toll at an estimated$7.1 trillion b

49、y 2050,due to the loss in productivity.A rising number of wildfires worldwide is also connected to record heat which dries out foliage.Besides the destruction of property and loss of life and livestock,wildfires aggravate air pollution,which in turn exacerbates respiratory illness and cardiovascular

50、 diseases.Research suggests that air pollution will lead to 6 to 9 million premature deaths per year by 2060.25Floods will pose the highest acute risk of climate-induced mortality,forecast to account for8.5millionadditional deaths by 2050.Heatwaves are predicted to cause the highest global economic

51、toll at an estimated$7.1trillionby 2050,due to the loss in productivity.Climate change and health inequitiesPeople suffering the brunt of climate-related illnesses will be those in less economically developed regions lacking the resources to recover from climate-related disasters.For instance,the pr

52、ojected mortality rate in Africa is more than 20 times greater than in North and Central America and almost 14 times worse than in Europe.26 Asia is also disproportionately affected,with mortality rates more than 13 times worse than North and Central America.While climate-related disasters are detri

53、mental to healthcare resources for all populations,there are additional threats to vulnerable communities,which already face limited access to quality medical care.Economic losses in Africa are forecast to be twice that of North and Central America,although less severe than in Europe.Asia is expecte

54、d to experience losses three times higher than North and Central America and 34%higher than Europe over the 2023-2050 period.Low-income and hard-to-reach communities tend to live further from health services and facilities and face additional challenges to accessing health services,such as a lack of

55、 transport.These populations often must pay out-of-pocket costs for access for medical supplies and treatment.This differential in access to high-quality care perpetuates the disparities in health outcomes,widening the gap between the levels of mortality and morbidity experienced by disadvantaged po

56、pulations and more privileged groups.Environmental disasters aggravate inequities and ultimately solutions that address economic disparity are vital for building resilience to climate change.1.2 Implications for population health and well-being,including global economic impactResearch suggests that

57、air pollution will lead to 6-9millionpremature deaths per year by 2060.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions7While the least economically developed countries are expected to experience more of the climate-related health impacts,they are the least responsible27 for the emi

58、ssions that cause global warming.Africa,which only produces about 2%to 3%28 of global emissions,is already suffering a disproportionate amount of the impacts of climate change.However,the current imbalance may decrease over time as the effects of climate change begin to be felt increasingly in more

59、economically developed regions.Getting ahead of the crisisThere is no doubt that the public health threat from climate change will be a global crisis,far surpassing the devastation from COVID-19.As with the pandemic,the ongoing strain on global resources from the scope of the emergency will challeng

60、e the resilience of public health systems and the healthcare industry worldwide.Public health faces a crisis situation when the enabling environment does not support innovation.The challenge of addressing bacterial resistance to antibiotics is a good example.Since 2017 only 12 antibiotics29 have bee

61、n approved,10 of which belong to existing classes with established mechanisms of antimicrobial resistance.The World Health Organization(WHO)describes30 the pipeline of new antibiotics as“stagnant and far from meeting global needs.”The Forums Agenda blog,3 key priorities to avert a climate-driven hea

62、lth catastrophe by 2050,31 published in September 2024,lays out three steps which world leaders and health policy-makers could take to get ahead of the impending health crises:1.Focus on making local healthcare systems climate-resilient.2.Leverage private-sector innovation in healthcare,life science

63、s and academia,targeting climate-induced health challenges.3.Allocate government resources and enact policies to enable a robust global response.The findings of Chapter 3 in this report emphasize these recommendations for future policy.Climates public-private sector challengeThe pressing challenge o

64、f climate change necessitates the creation of climate-resilient global health systems,capable of safeguarding public health during large-scale and potentially lengthy health crises.Yet,even without climate events to contend with,the reality is that many health systems in less developed economies and

65、 even some in more developed ones would not currently be considered resilient.This represents an opportunity for the public and private sectors not only to prepare for climate change but also to close any existing gaps in healthcare with new and innovative capabilities.The COVID-19 pandemic showed f

66、irst-hand evidence of the lack of resilience after hospitals in almost every country were overwhelmed,both by demand for services and absenteeism among staff.To get ahead of the climate crisis,it is important to identify infrastructure vulnerabilities and the diseases and conditions that can be miti

67、gated with proactive strategies.For instance,pharmaceutical supply chains are vulnerable32 to the effects of climate change.When supply chains are disrupted,getting treatments to patients becomes a major issue.Reaching patients can become difficult when roads are washed away,ships cannot leave ports

68、 and planes cannot take off due to extreme weather conditions.Even short delays can potentially affect the efficacy of medicines,lead to longer-term supply bottlenecks and ultimately prevent people from getting access to care.Part of the solution lies in public-private partnerships involving governm

69、ent,life science innovators and the healthcare sector to prepare for making high-impact,longer-horizon investments in vaccines,treatments and infrastructure.There is still a window in which to get ahead of the crisis,but it is closing fast.The projected mortality rate in Africa is more than 20 times

70、 greater than in North and Central America and almost 14 times worse than in Europe.The public health threat from climate change will be a global crisis,far surpassing the devastation from COVID-19.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions8The potential to mitigate the health

71、 and economic impacts of climate change2Enhanced prevention,improved diagnostics and novel treatments could halve the impacts of climate change on health.This assessment is based on a detailed review of the underlying causes and available medical interventions for eight priority medical conditions a

72、nd diseases,which are aggravated by climate-change impacts(see Appendix for detailed methodology).The assessments focus is on identifying areas where medical innovation could make a meaningful impact.Figure 1 presents a summary of the findings,for example demonstrating significant opportunities to i

73、mprove prevention,particularly in the continued development of vaccines.In the case of dengue,excellent progress has been made,especially with the pre-qualification of the TAK-003 vaccine by WHO in 2024.33 Further development could expand this success to vaccines for additional medical conditions.Di

74、agnostics would benefit from continued improvement,particularly the development of affordable,accurate and easy-to-use point-of-care tools.In resource-constrained settings,the lack of rapid and definitive diagnostic tests limits timely intervention and effective treatment,for example for heat-relate

75、d diseases and asthma.In terms of treatment,addressing drug resistance remains a pressing need because of poor treatment adherence and the limited effectiveness of therapies,which forces some patients to take the same medicine many times.This is a particularly widespread issue for infectious disease

76、s,such as malaria.34 All this underscores the need for new vaccines,drug development and improved strategies to ensure patients complete their treatment courses.In addition to traditional life sciences interventions,new technologies offer substantial opportunities to reduce the climate impact on hea

77、lth.For example,desalination technology is important for reducing incidences of climate-related hypertension,while low-water sanitation solutions could reduce stunting-associated enteric diseases.Finally,climate services for health35 such as collecting and using climate knowledge to enhance health s

78、olutions could improve the effectiveness of medical responses to climate change.Such services can leverage a range of climate readings(e.g.temperature,precipitation,wind)and non-meteorological data(e.g.agricultural production,health trends,infrastructure mapping).This approach36 enables robust risk

79、and vulnerability analyses,as well as the development of long-term projections and scenarios.For instance,37 leading climate services could potentially predict outbreaks of infectious diseases as early as two months in advance.When these predictions are integrated with healthcare services,they can s

80、ignificantly enhance preventive measures and prepare health systems to mitigate impacts,potentially resulting in a reduction of up to 25%38 in the incidence of such diseases.2.1 Assessing the health and economic impacts of interventionsHealthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solution

81、s9Unmet needs range across prevention,diagnosis and treatmentFIGURE 11.Generalized anxiety disorder;2.Rapid diagnostic testSource:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis of current literature supplemented through expert interview.Implementing real-time monitoring for population managementDeve

82、loping preventive pharmacological solutions Using wearables as heat sensorsImplementing asthma risk surveillance and warning systemsModifying underlying disease Creating patient-friendly alternatives to inhaler treatmentsDeveloping definitive diagnosticsPredicting asthma exacerbations and supporting

83、 self-managementInnovating on interventions to prevent initial onsetDeveloping long-acting treatments Addressing treatment-resistant hypertensionPreventionDiagnosisTreatmentTechnology and services StuntingGeneralized anxietydisorderPTSDMalariaExpanding vaccination for adults Ensuring durability and

84、reliable efficacy of childrens vaccineProviding sufficient supply of diagnostics Improving RDT2 sensitivityDeveloping cheaper,easier diagnostics Improving serological and molecular diagnostics DengueHypertensionHeat-related diseasesAsthmaCreating vaccines and interventions to prevent malabsorption A

85、ssessing and improving impact of interventions on cognitive development Developing tools for early detection Implementing point-of-care nutritional deficiency testing Tailoring education,nutrition,and psychosocial interventionsScaling low-water sanitation solutionsExploring potential of preventive p

86、harmacological solutions Developing post-trauma interventions to prevent onset Continuing roll-out of vaccines efficacious across all serotypes of dengueDevelopment of single dose vaccines to improve adherenceIdentifying genetic and biological risk markersIncreasing accuracy and speed of in-office d

87、iagnosis Improving at-home monitoringDeveloping rapid,point-of-care diagnostic toolsDeveloping targeted treatmentsCreating definitive diagnostics that capture disease heterogeneity Creating definitive diagnostics that capture disease heterogeneity Creating safer interventions for treatment-resistant

88、 GAD1Scaling effective digital therapeutics Developing improved alternatives to psychotherapy Developing strategy for multi-drug resistanceDeveloping antiviral therapy Integrating digital tools for real-time monitoring Improving desalination technologyScaling effective digital therapeutics Identifyi

89、ng high-risk populations and individuals Collecting more diverse data setsIdentifying high-risk populations and individuals Collecting more diverse data setsIntegrating digital tools for real-time monitoring Improving data and reporting tools Addressing maternal healthHealthcare in a Changing Climat

90、e:Investing in Resilient Solutions10Developing solutions to address unmet medical needs for high-priority diseases offers a unique opportunity to significantly reduce the projected39 impacts of climate change on both disease burden and economic losses by 2050(see Appendix for detailed methodology).F

91、igure 2 summarizes the human and economic impacts that are potential preventable,broken down into 11 diseases and health impacts:malaria,dengue fever,cholera,generalized anxiety disorder(GAD),post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD),stunting,hypertension,ischemic heart disease(IHD),fatalities and injuri

92、es,heat-related diseases(HRD)and asthma.By 2050,these impacts are projected to cause an additional 14.5 million deaths and cost the global economy$12.5 trillion cumulatively,through productivity losses and treatment costs comparable to the gross domestic product of Singapore.However,through investme

93、nt in vaccines,medicines,medical devices,health-tech and climate services,6.5 million lives could potentially be saved,global economic losses reduced by$5.8 trillion and 1 billion fewer disability-adjusted life years accrued(DALYs)cumulatively by 2050.Innovative interventions from the life sciences

94、sector focused on prevention,diagnostics and treatment could potentially avert up to 49%of the anticipated DALYs lost due to diseases exacerbated by climate change.More effective and accessible interventions,particularly for remote communities,can prevent disease incidences,facilitate faster and mor

95、e effective treatments,reduce premature mortality,shorten recovery times and eliminate long-term health consequences.Collectively,these efforts could help prevent the loss of approximately 1 billion DALYs(cumulatively)by 2050.2.2 The potential to reduce climates impact on health by 2050Health and ec

96、onomic impacts of climate change,potentially preventable by 2050(cumulative)FIGURE 2Nomeasures Impact of measuresRemainingMalariaDengueCholeraGADPTSDStuntingHypertensionIHDHRDAsthmaFatalities and injuries0.40.20.2Health impact,DALY billionsProductivity loss,$trillionsNomeasures Impact of measuresRem

97、aining0.90.40.40.22.01.01.00.1-49%11.35.75.61123253870-49%-23%Deaths,millions3.08.10.914.57.96.53.60.44.60.80.81.70.51.3Nomeasures Impact of measuresRemainingNomeasures Impact of measuresRemaining-45%Treatment cost,$billion0.50.73.50.40.61.00.43.50.50.20.20.11.00.91.77.056532625710073835742513969161

98、61.61.See Appendix for detailed methodology.2.Numbers may not sum precisely to totals due to rounding.Source:World Economic Forum40 and Oliver Wyman analysis of current literature supplemented through expert interview.1billionDALYs by 2050 could be prevented through innovative prevention,diagnostics

99、 and treatment.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions11$253billionof treatment costs and$5.6trillionof productivity losses could be avoided.Stunting,a major concern for child health,could be mitigated by over 45%,preventing 1.3milliondeaths and saving over$753 billion in e

100、conomic losses.The introduction of innovative medical interventions also holds significant potential for reducing healthcare costs in affected regions.For instance,vaccination programmes often demonstrate a positive return on investment by lowering healthcare system costs associated with avoided tre

101、atments.Additionally,improved diagnostics can prevent delays and inaccuracies in treatment.More effective and affordable treatment options have demonstrated significant potential to reduce healthcare expenses,minimizing the need for repeat visits or costly intensive care procedures.However,the intro

102、duction of innovative solutions will not serve as a panacea for healthcare costs.Significant spending will still be necessary to ensure access to new vaccines,diagnostics and treatments.Innovations from the life sciences sector addressing unmet medical needs could collectively help prevent up to 23%

103、of healthcare costs,amounting to approximately$253 billion by 2050.Preventing adverse health outcomes indirectly contributes to a higher GDP for the global economy.With fewer premature deaths and a decrease in days lost to illness or lower productivity,new interventions could prevent approximately$5

104、.6 trillion in productivity losses by 2050.Ultimately,life sciences interventions have the potential to prevent numerous deaths.By reducing disease incidences through prevention and ensuring timely and effective diagnostics and treatments,the severity of diseases can be reduced,hence lowering mortal

105、ity rates.By 2050,this could result in the prevention of up to 45%of additional deaths from diseases exacerbated by climate change,translating to approximately 6.5 million lives saved.Stunting,a major concern for child health,could be mitigated by over 45%,preventing 1.3 million deaths and saving ov

106、er$753 billion in economic losses.Interventions targeting malaria could mitigate 180 million DALYs and prevent over 3.6 million deaths by 2050,while saving$450 billion in economic losses.Dengue,another vector-borne disease,could see a global impact reduction of 63%,preventing 66,000 deaths and savin

107、g$89 billion in economic losses.Heat-related illnesses,another growing threat due to climate change,could see a 50%reduction in deaths,saving over 800,000 lives and preventing$3.5 trillion in economic losses.The effectiveness of such innovative life sciences interventions can be substantially improv

108、ed if implemented together with advanced technologies and climate services.By utilizing enhanced digital tools that leverage data to predict disease outbreaks,communities and healthcare systems can achieve greater preparedness,enhancing the effectiveness of diagnostics and treatment,or preventing in

109、cidents altogether.Implementing these technologies and climate services alongside life sciences interventions could reduce health impacts by an additional 3.6%through 2050 eliminating 74 million DALYs,$19 billion in treatment costs,$418 billion in productivity losses and 454,000 deaths by 2050.These

110、 numbers highlight the urgent need to address climate-sensitive health challenges and the opportunity to significantly alleviate both human and economic burdens through targeted solutions.This opportunity to act is not only about saving lives but also about ensuring long-term economic sustainability

111、.By reducing the disease burden and associated costs,governments and businesses can allocate resources more efficiently,leading to healthier,more productive populations.The long-term benefits of mitigating these diseases go beyond immediate healthcare savings they include fostering better economic g

112、rowth and reducing poverty in regions most vulnerable to climate impacts.Addressing these unmet medical needs with innovative climate and health solutions is critical to building resilient health systems and supporting sustainable development in a rapidly changing world.Healthcare in a Changing Clim

113、ate:Investing in Resilient Solutions12This section analyses the data for eight high-priority diseases:malaria,dengue fever,post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD),generalized anxiety disorder(GAD),stunting,hypertension,heat-related diseases and asthma.A summary of the analysis is presented in Figure 3,

114、while deep dives into these diseases are available in an Annex,published separately here by Oliver Wyman.Malaria Vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria will be significantly exacerbated by climate change,which extends the range of several species of mosquitoes,increasing the geographical e

115、xtent of the diseases they carry.Up to 8.4 billion people could be at risk of contracting malaria or dengue fever by the end of the century due to climate change.41 Malaria alone is projected to cost an additional$1 trillion and add 409 million DALYs(cumulatively)by 2050 because of climate change.42

116、In central Africa alone,malaria is expected to cost the healthcare system around$345 billion and add 151 million DALYs by 2050.Notably,the impact of climate change on malaria is predicted to extend to more economically developed countries;in 2023,for the first time in 20 years,the US recorded cases

117、of domestic malaria transmission,according to Johns Hopkins University.43Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for malaria offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.Analysis conducted for this report shows that introducing novel preven

118、tion methods(e.g.the development of single-use vaccines with associated improved patient adherence),diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 44%of the projected health and economic burdens linked to malaria proliferation.This could save up to 180 million DALYs,prevent nearly$450 billio

119、n in economic losses(including$6 billion in healthcare costs)and avert 3.59 million deaths.2.3 Mitigation strategies for health and economic impacts by diseases3.6 million malaria deaths,$3.5trillionof economic costs from heat-related disease and almost 400 million stunting DALYs are potentially pre

120、ventable by 2050.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions13Potentially preventable impacts by diseases and health conditionsFIGURE 3Treatment costsProductivity loss50%49%49%49%Deaths,thousands$,billionsDALY,millionsDALY,%2DiseasesHealth outcomes44%MalariaInfectious diseases6

121、3%DengueCholera358%Generalized anxiety disorder(GAD)Mental health issuesPost-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD)45%StuntingMalnutritionHypertensionCardiovascular diseasesIschemic heart disease3Fatalities and injuries3Fatalities and injuriesHeat-related diseasesHeat-related diseases57%AsthmaRespiratory d

122、iseases6,4955,83697653%TotalPotentially preventable impacts11806642205139710315170211136611019N/A1,29854120410803253,590450898925671113753373,52249%60%691391.Excluding 8%average overlap between interventions.Totals rounded up to nearest percentage point,million,billion or thousand.2.PTSD does not le

123、ad to premature mortality.3.Preventable impacts for cholera,ischemic heart disease,and fatalities and injuries are assessed based on averages across diseases.Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions14The impacts of variou

124、s forms of malaria prevention can be seen in the following table:Malaria prevention impactTABLE 1Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionDevelop adult vaccinesImprove efficacy of paediatric vaccines23%96 million$239 bil

125、lion1.92 millionImproved diagnosticsDevelop better-performing rapid diagnostic tests(RDTs)Ensure their widespread availability9%36 million$91 billion730,000Novel treatmentsParticularly those targeting multi-drug-resistant malaria12%48 million$120 billion940,000Total44%180 million$450 billion3.59 mil

126、lionSource:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions15Dengue feverDengue is projected to impose a significant health and economic burden by 2050.Asia will continue to bear the brunt,with 66,000 dengue-related deaths,5.8 million D

127、ALYs and healthcare costs soaring to$105 billion.44 The costs associated with dengue are mostly from hospitalizations,long-term care and productivity losses.Africa will also face severe impacts,with 28,000 deaths,2.1 million DALYs and an economic cost of$13 billion.The expansion of Aedes mosquito po

128、pulations due to climate change and urbanization45 is expected to accelerate dengue transmission,emphasizing the urgent need for global action to control the disease and reduce its impacts on public health and economies worldwide.Recent data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Contro

129、l(ECDC)46 already shows a rising trend in dengue cases outside endemic regions,with 2023 seeing a notable spike in Europe.Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for dengue offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.The analysis conducted

130、 for this report shows that introducing novel prevention methods,diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 63%of the projected health and economic burdens linked to dengue expansion.These advancements could save up to 5.6 million DALYs,prevent$89 billion in economic losses(including$3 b

131、illion in healthcare costs)and avert 66,000 deaths.The impacts of various forms of dengue prevention can be seen in the following table:Dengue fever driven by climate change is projected to cause 93,000 deaths,7.9millionDALYs and$118 billion of costs in Asia and Africa by 2050 but 63%of these impact

132、s can be prevented.Dengue prevention impactTABLE 2Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionContinuing roll-out of vaccines efficacious across all serotypes of dengueDevelopment of single dose vaccines to improve adherenc

133、e46%4 million$64 billion48,000Improved diagnosticsDevelop affordable,easy-to-perform diagnosticsEnsure their widespread availability5%0.5 million$8 billion6,000Novel treatmentsAntiviral treatments Including monoclonal antibodies as a potential short-term prevention method12%1.1 million$17 billion12,

134、000Total63%5.6 million$89 billion66,000Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Continued roll-out of vaccines targeting all four serotypes in individuals both already exposed and unexposed to dengue would continue the excellent progress in this field,47 reducing the incidence of the di

135、sease and preventing severe cases,particularly in endemic regions.Novel treatments,such as monoclonal antibodies could also play a role,48 and are being studied as a potential short-term prevention method for high-risk groups.Post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD)and generalized anxiety disorder(GAD)C

136、limate-related events such as floods,storms and droughts are increasingly recognized as catalysts for mental health conditions,49 such as post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD)and generalized anxiety disorder(GAD).Acute disasters,such as floods and storms,expose individuals to traumatic experiences th

137、at can trigger PTSD,including loss of family members and friends,homes and livelihoods.In regions such as South-East Asia,where floods are frequent and severe,50 these events are expected to cause$147 billion in PTSD-related healthcare expenses and 41 million DALYs by 2050.Globally,PTSD from climate

138、 events is projected to cost$397 billion and cause 85 million DALYs,underscoring the need for targeted mental health interventions in disaster-prone regions.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions16Meanwhile,GAD often51 develops in response to prolonged stress and uncertain

139、ty.The struggle52 to find food,loss of livelihoods and forced migration due to droughts or the destruction caused by wildfires,as well as the threat of recurrence,can lead to chronic stress and anxiety,significantly contributing to the rise in GAD cases.The expected global impact of climate-related

140、GAD is profound,53 with projected costs of$1.5 trillion and health impacts of 378 million DALYs by 2050.More specifically,in the western US,generalized anxiety disorders linked to wildfires are estimated to cost$709 billion,with 36 million DALYs.Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for PTSD a

141、nd GAD offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.The analysis shows that introducing novel prevention methods,diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 60%and 58%of the projected health and economic burdens linked to PTSD and GA

142、D,respectively.For PTSD,these preventive measures could save up to 51 million DALYs and prevent$113 billion in economic losses(including$69 billion in healthcare costs).For GAD,such measures could save up to 220 million DALYs,prevent$671 billion in economic losses(including$139 billion in healthcare

143、 costs)and avert 19,000 deaths.Together,these interventions represent key opportunities for public health advancement,with targeted investment essential to realize these benefits.The impacts of various forms of PTSD and GAD prevention can be seen in the following tables:Collectively,PTSD and GAD dri

144、ven by climate change are expected to cause over$1.8trillionin costs and over 460 million DALYs by 2050 but roughly 60%of these impacts can be prevented.PTSD prevention impactTABLE 3Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced prevent

145、ionDevelop post-trauma interventions to prevent PTSD onset31%26 million$55 billionN/AImproved diagnosticsCreate definitive diagnostics that capture disease heterogeneity4%4 million$13 billionN/ANovel treatmentsDevelop improved alternatives to psychotherapyDevelop scaled effective digital therapeutic

146、s25%21 million$45 billionN/ATotal60%51 million$113 billionN/ASource:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.GAD prevention impactTABLE 4Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionExplore the potential of preventive

147、pharmacological solutions10%37 million$112 billion3,000Improved diagnosticsCreate definitive diagnostics that capture disease heterogeneity15%59 million$193 billion5,000Novel treatmentsDevelop safer interventions for“treatment-resistant”GAD Develop scaled effective digital therapeutics33%124 million

148、$366 billion11,000Total58%220 million$671 billion19,000Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions17Stunting Stunting is caused by malnutrition or malabsorption of nutrients and is already a significant global health challen

149、ge,affecting millions of children under five in less economically developed economies.It is expected to be further exacerbated by climate change54 as rising temperatures threaten food availability by reducing crop yields and raising the price of the limited supply.By 2050,assuming emissions are not

150、reduced sufficiently,the global cost of stunted development in children is projected to be$1.8 trillion,impacting 887 million DALYs.Regional disparities are stark,with the Mediterranean region,West Africa and Southern Africa bearing the heaviest burdens.In the Mediterranean region,stunting is expect

151、ed to lead to economic losses of$700 billion including GDP losses and treatment costs,and affect 16 million DALYs.In West Africa and Southern Africa,it is projected to incur losses of$231 billion,affecting a staggering 727 million DALYs.The differential in number of DALYs versus the cost reflects th

152、e limited spending on healthcare in Africa because of lack of resources.Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for stunting offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.The analysis shows that introducing novel prevention and prenatal meth

153、ods,diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 45%of the projected health and economic burdens linked to stunting.These measures could save up to 397 million DALYs,prevent$753 billion in economic losses,including$16 billion in healthcare costs and avert 1.3 million deaths.Together,these

154、interventions and the need for targeted investments to develop them represent key opportunities for public health advancement.The impacts of various forms of stunting prevention can be seen in the following table:Stunting in children driven by climate change is expected to cause around$1.8trillionin

155、 costs and over 887 million DALYs by 2050 but roughly 45%of these impacts can be prevented,including 1.3 million deaths.Stunting prevention impactTABLE 5Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionCreate vaccines and interv

156、entions to prevent malabsorption Address maternal health to prevent stunting36%322 million$602 billion1.04 millionImproved diagnosticsImprove early detection of stuntingImplement point-of-care nutritional deficiency testing6%49 million$101 billion170,000Novel treatmentsAddress the impact of interven

157、tions on cognitive development3%26 million$50 billion90,000Total45%397 million$753 billion1.3 millionSource:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Hypertension Hypertension is a major global health concern,even without climate change,with rates rising in parts of the globe.Global warming is

158、likely to exacerbate that trend as rising sea levels contribute to saltwater intrusion into groundwater,increasing the concentrations of calcium,potassium and magnesium,which are associated with elevated blood pressure and cardiovascular risks.By 2050,the impact in Asia in particular is expected to

159、be severe,with projected healthcare costs of$48.1 billion and an estimated burden of 127 million DALYs.55 Coastal areas with a low human development index are particularly vulnerable,with saltwater intrusion projected to contribute to more than 800,000 new hypertension cases by 2050 in these vulnera

160、ble coastal regions.This is linked to an economic toll on healthcare systems of an estimated$73 billion to address hypertension-related issues and an impact of approximately 193 million DALYs.Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for hypertension offers significant potential to reduce the heal

161、th and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.Hypertension driven by climate change is expected to cause around$73billionin costs and 193 million DALYs but 53%of these impacts can be prevented,including 54,000 deaths.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions18The anal

162、ysis shows that introducing novel prevention methods,diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 53%of the projected health and economic burdens.These advancements could save up to 103 million DALYs,prevent$37 billion in economic losses,including$1 billion in healthcare costs and avert 54

163、,000 deaths.Hypertension prevention impactTABLE 6Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionIdentify genetic and biological risk markers5%9 million$3 billion5,000Improved diagnosticsIncrease accuracy and speed of in-office

164、 diagnosis Improve at-home monitoring26%51 million$19 billion27,000Novel treatmentsDevelop long-acting treatments and those targeting“resistant hypertension”22%43 million$15 billion22,000Total53%103 million$37 billion54,000Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Heat-related disease(HR

165、D)Heatwaves caused by climate change are projected to cause nearly 1.6 million deaths globally by 2050,56 with approximately 70%of these fatalities concentrated in high-risk regions,particularly South-East Asia.The global economic losses associated with heat-related diseases are expected to reach$7.

166、1 trillion,predominantly driven by productivity losses.South-East Asia alone is forecasted to account for$1.8 trillion of these costs,reflecting the regions disproportionate exposure to extreme heat and its significant public health challenges.In addition to the financial burden,heat-related disease

167、s are anticipated to contribute to a loss of 6.5 million DALYs globally,with 3 million DALYs expected in South-East Asia.Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for HRD offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.The analysis shows that in

168、troducing novel prevention methods,diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 50%of the projected health and economic impacts linked to accelerating HRD.These preventive measures could save up to 3.2 million DALYs,avoid$3.5 trillion in economic losses(including$16 billion in healthcare c

169、osts)and avert 800,000 deaths.The impacts of various forms of HRD prevention can be seen in the following table:Heat-related disease driven by climate change is expected to cause around$7.1trillionin costs and 6.5 million DALYs but 50%of these impacts can be prevented,including 800,000 deaths.HRD pr

170、evention impactTABLE 7Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionDevelop preventive pharmacological solutions30%2 million$2.1 trillion490,000Improved diagnosticsDevelop rapid,point-of-care diagnostics Ensure their widespre

171、ad availability15%0.9 million$1 trillion230,000Novel treatmentsDevelop novel targeted treatments5%0.3 million$339 billion80,000Total50%3.2 million$3.5 trillion800,000Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions19Asthma Asthma

172、 is highly susceptible to environmental changes driven by climate change.The projected increase in wildfires will increase exposure to smoke from fires,which can trigger asthma,especially among those directly exposed to the fumes.Meanwhile,the wind erosion of dry and degraded soils during wildfires

173、generates airborne particles,compounding the issue of poor air quality and intensifying respiratory challenges.Additionally,climate-driven changes are expected to lead to a higher prevalence of allergens,such as pollen,which in turn may further exacerbate asthma symptoms.The western US is particular

174、ly vulnerable to climate impacts,where increasing wildfire frequency and intensity are expected to contribute to a further deterioration in air quality,posing severe respiratory health risks.By 2050,additional economic and health impacts of asthma related to wildfires are projected to be substantial

175、,with North and Central America expected to incur$4.6 billion in economic impact and almost 400,000 DALYs.57 Globally,asthma-related costs are estimated to reach$9.4 billion and an additional 2.1 million DALYs.The situation is compounded by data gaps in remote communities,where the health impacts re

176、main under-documented,leaving these populations vulnerable to the consequences of poor air quality.Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for asthma offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change.The analysis shows that introducing novel pre

177、vention methods,diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 57%of the projected health and economic burdens linked to asthma.These advancements could save up to 1.2 million DALYs,prevent$4.6 billion in economic losses(including$0.9 billion in healthcare costs)and avert 25,000 deaths.To ac

178、hieve the full 57%potential for health improvement,strategic interventions must be a priority.The impacts of various forms of asthma prevention can be seen in the following table:Asthma driven by climate change is expected to cause around$9.4billionin costs and 2.1 million DALYs but 57%of these impa

179、cts can be prevented,including 25,000 deaths.Asthma prevention impactTABLE 8Prevention typeTypical measures%impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths avertedEnhanced preventionDevelop innovative interventions to prevent initial onset14%0.3 million$1.1 billion6,000Improved diagno

180、sticsDevelop more definitive diagnostics and tools to predict asthma exacerbations Support dynamic self-management30%0.6 million$2.6 billion13,000Novel treatmentsDevelop treatments targeting modification of the underlying diseaseCreate patient-friendly alternatives to inhaler-based treatments13%0.3

181、million$0.9 billion6,000Total57%1.2 million$4.6 billion25,000Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions20Unlocking innovation across life sciences and technology3A strategic investment of$65 billion could achieve a 49%reduc

182、tion in the health and economic impacts of climate change.Life sciences innovators have a pivotal role to play in the effort to mitigate the impact of climate change through targeted,long-term investments in R&D across vaccines,medicines,medical devices and healthcare technology.Research conducted f

183、or this report has identified 36 unmet medical needs in eight climate-aggravated medical conditions across prevention,diagnostics and treatment that could be addressed by life sciences innovation.To achieve the 49%reduction in projected health and economic impacts of climate change,detailed above in

184、 Chapter 2,a strategic investment of$65 billion in innovative solutions over the next five to eight years is required(see Appendix for detailed methodology).This investment amounts to less than 5%of what is currently spent annually by pharmaceutical,58 medical devices and healthtech companies on R&D

185、 and demonstrates that substantial impact can be achieved even with more targeted investment.Although leading companies are already investing in climate-resilient health,these companies may not expect profits60 from these efforts but rather are responding to multilateral calls to reach global target

186、s for NTDs,such as those in WHOs Neglected Tropical Disease Roadmap(2021-2030)and the Kigali Declaration,initiated in 2022.While these efforts are important,significantly greater scale is needed to boost R&D in climate-driven health conditions.Life sciences innovators have also made progress in maki

187、ng their supply chains and operations more climate resilient,particularly after problems encountered during the COVID pandemic and efforts to address avian flu.This includes supplier diversification and adapting distribution channels to the physical impacts of climate change.Some companies are makin

188、g product investments that improve distribution resilience.This includes novel means of storage and transportation(e.g.using a plasma separation card to ship blood samples in a range of environmental conditions)61 as well as improving the characteristics of the medicines themselves(e.g.investigating

189、 the thermostability of insulin for settings without stable cooling).623.1 Pivotal role of life sciences innovators in climate and health solutionsHealthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions21An investment of$65 billion over the next five to eight years would enable real gains

190、to be made in treatments and healthcare.The amount,which is based on historical R&D costs for comparable solutions,represents a strategic step change in prioritizing medical conditions that will be impacted by climate change.Investing$65 billion could lead to savings of$253 billion in cumulative hea

191、lthcare spending by 2050,easing the financial strain on patients,insurance providers,public health budgets and healthcare professionals.The anticipated decrease in the number of new cases and severity of health outcomes will result in fewer productive days lost due to illness and premature mortality

192、.Such a reduction would have a substantial indirect economic impact,potentially preventing$5.6 trillion in GDP productivity losses cumulatively by 2050.Considering these factors,the R&D costs associated with developing new solutions could yield returns of up to four times in terms of avoided healthc

193、are costs and up to 90 times in terms of total economic loss avoidance by 2050.When compared with alternative investment opportunities,the potential savings in preventable healthcare costs alone is in line with average returns on investments in climate action.By 2050,new interventions could potentia

194、lly save up to one billion DALYs at an average R&D cost of$65 per prevented DALY.By comparison,the cost of averted DALYs for most health systems is estimated to range from$1,000 to$70,000,63 depending on a countrys human development index.From this perspective,investing in R&D to mitigate the health

195、 impacts of climate change represents a cost-effective and ethical approach.3.2 Level of investment needed and estimated returnsInvesting$65 billion over the next five to eight years could lead to savings of$253billionin cumulative healthcare spending by 2050.While the return on investment from inno

196、vation is clear for health systems,the same does not automatically apply to private-sector life science innovators.The life sciences industry has deep roots in serving global society.It invests regularly in health equity and access to medicines.For example,some companies offer screening64 and diseas

197、e awareness programmes and health education65 to facilitate disease prevention.Examples of efforts to improve healthcare access include providing medication donations66 during disasters,partnering to improve distribution of treatments in Sub-Saharan Africa,67 adopting tiered and capped68 pricing mod

198、els and funding mobile69 healthcare clinics to improve healthcare access.However despite these important philanthropic investments,funding in R&D for climate-driven diseases remains insufficient.The main roadblocks limiting investment today include uncertain market demand,unclear return on investmen

199、t and fragmented regulatory policies and incentives.In addition,life sciences innovators face the complexity of climate health data integration,a lack of collaboration between climate and health scientists,cultural resistance to a new climate focus and low public and political awareness of the impac

200、t of climate on health.Actions to eliminate or at least reduce these roadblocks to investment include the following:Creation of innovative funding mechanisms and business models to unlock R&D investments in climate-driven health problems.Collaboration between life sciences innovators and governmenta

201、l organizations to improve harmonization of global policies and incentives.Investment in climate-health data platforms that predict disease patterns and outcomes to foster cross-sector collaborations and align company commitments.Joint efforts between industry and government to increase public aware

202、ness through media and community-focused campaigns.3.3 Overcoming roadblocks that hinder development of new climate and health solutions The main roadblocks limiting investment today include uncertain market demand,unclear return on investment and fragmented regulatory policies and incentives.Health

203、care in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions22Critical actions to overcome roadblocks to investment in climate and health innovationFIGURE 4Source:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Uncertain market demand and ROIMany climate-driven diseases impact areas with limited healt

204、hcare budgets,leading to uncertainty about commercial viability and ROI,even as these diseases are expected to rise in developed countries.Create innovative funding and business models to unlock R&D investments in climate and health areas.Fragmented policies and incentivesVaried regulatory,financial

205、 and tax incentives across regions limit scalability.This fragmentation makes it difficult for the life sciences sector to develop cohesive,cross-border strategies for climate and health innovation.Advocate for harmonized global policies and incentives to promote climate and health investments.Compl

206、exity of climate-health data integrationThe life sciences sectors ability to forecast disease patterns and design effective climate and health solutions is hindered by data infrastructure gaps that make it hard to connect climate variables with patient health data.Invest in climate-health data platf

207、orms to predict disease patterns and outcomes.Lack of collaboration between climate and health sectorsThe life sciences sector often works in isolation from climate and environmental scientists,resulting in missed opportunities for cross-sector innovations addressing health and environmental issues.

208、Foster cross-sector collaborations to drive holistic climate and health innovation.Cultural resistance to new climate focusThe life sciences sector often faces internal resistance to redirecting resources from traditional high-revenue therapeutic areas to climate-sensitive diseases.This resistance s

209、lows the adoption of climate-health strategies.Align company climate and health through leadership commitment and awareness programmes.Low public and political awarenessWhile climate changes impact on health is becoming more understood,public and political awareness remains relatively low,weakening

210、advocacy efforts and delaying policy change.Drive public campaigns and media engagement to elevate climate-health awareness.Roadblocks encounteredDescription and rationaleCritical actionsHealthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions23Uncertainty of market demand and return on inv

211、estmentOne of the most significant roadblocks preventing life sciences investments in climate and health is the uncertainty of market demand and return on investment.Given the high risks70 inherent with life sciences R&D,return on capital becomes a driving force for the industry.It often compels lif

212、e sciences innovators to set priorities according to investor expectations rather than societal need.When philanthropic investments are made on health-equity concerns,although a positive step forward,R&D programmes are often not big enough to address the full needs of climate-driven diseases.Ultimat

213、ely,the decision to invest is based on a business case and for many climate-exacerbated diseases,the traditional risk-return dynamic does not yield sufficient economic rewards.For example,mental health faces71 significant funding challenges because of uncertain ROI.Only about 5%72 of biopharma R&D b

214、udgets is dedicated to treatments despite estimates that over half the US population is diagnosed with a mental health condition during their lifetime.73 Public funding74 for academic mental health research tends to be limited,leading to low levels of early-stage research.At the same time,R&D costs

215、are very high.Early-stage failure rates75 of neuropsychiatric drugs are high and psychiatric studies often need to be large,which increases development costs and extends approval timelines.Additionally,a number of climate-driven diseases such as stunting,malaria and dengue predominantly affect less

216、economically developed regions with a perceived small market size76 and marginal return on investment,even as cases rise globally.In the case of vaccines,for example,creating economies of scale in manufacturing can be challenging,77 which further impairs ROI.Although climate-driven diseases are pred

217、icted to rise in both less and more economically developed countries,and new cases of vector-borne diseases in North America and Europe may trigger investment interest,the lack of visibility into the timing of commercial viability can dissuade companies from investing in these areas to make real pro

218、gress.Misalignment of risk and reward limits investments78 or restricts their focus to small-scale philanthropic projects.While a positive step,these would benefit from the large-scale impact of projects in the commercial core business.Changes to funding approaches and global policies will have to b

219、e made to enable life sciences innovators to undertake strategic,large-scale investments in climate-exacerbated diseases.For instance,at the beginning of the COVID pandemic,the US government guaranteed the purchase of vaccines from Pfizer79 and Moderna80 to establish the market the vaccine producers

220、 needed to justify the R&D programmes they created.But,unlike COVID,climate-related health issues often play out over many years.By implementing innovative funding models and fostering partnerships with governments and impact investors,companies can share risks and unlock new sources of capital.To d

221、e-risk these investments,public-private partnerships are essential.One proven model is the GAVI Alliance,81 which funds vaccines for low-income countries a blueprint that could be expanded to cover climate-related diseases such as malaria and dengue.Between 2000 and 2023,the GAVI Alliance82 vaccinat

222、ed more than 1.1 billion children in 78 countries and prevented almost 19 million deaths.Unpredictable and diverse regulationAnother major obstacle to unleashing life sciences innovation involves policy and drug regulation.This roadblock has an intimate cause and effect relationship with a lack of m

223、arket uncertainty and return on investment,since regulation can reduce uncertainty and drive investments by establishing clear demand.Disjointed regulatory,financial and tax incentives make it difficult for companies to develop cohesive strategies that span multiple markets,limiting the reach and im

224、pact of innovative climate-health solutions.For example,83 unclear or unpredictable regulatory pathways and lack of technical and regulatory capacity in low-and middle-income countries hinder investment in malaria.Existing regulatory systems can be inadequate to drive more competitive markets or ens

225、ure widespread production of higher quality products at reduced costs.WHOs prequalification system(PQ)84 plays a crucial role in providing regulatory guidance,but challenges in coordination85 between WHO PQ and national regulatory bodies can delay product access.Lack of regulatory precedent and esta

226、blished efficacy measures can also complicate the approval process and lead to further regulatory fragmentation.In mental health,86 the novelty of tools such as digital therapeutics and devices for brain stimulation creates uncertainty around approval pathways.Overcoming these regulatory challenges,

227、87 when pursuing mental health innovations,is further exacerbated by reliance on subjective psychiatric endpoints and a nascent understanding of the molecular drivers of mental health conditions.At the beginning of the COVID pandemic,the US government guaranteed the purchase of vaccines from Pfizer

228、and Moderna to establish the market the vaccine producers needed to justify the R&D programmes they created.The accelerated approval by the FDA of COVID-19 vaccines demonstrates how flexible regulatory frameworks can expedite critical healthcare solutions.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing i

229、n Resilient Solutions24The accelerated approval by the US Food and Drug Administration(FDA)of COVID-19 vaccines88 demonstrates how flexible regulatory frameworks can expedite critical healthcare solutions.During COVID,regulators and the biopharmaceutical industry worked together to reduce red tape t

230、o accelerate the development,evaluation,authorization and supply of vaccines.These regulatory arrangements89 were a key factor in enabling rapid patient access to vaccines and limiting COVIDs most negative impacts to less than two years.90 This experience provided important lessons on how regulatory

231、 systems may be adapted to support innovation and timely patient access to vaccines at all times,not just during emergencies.Government incentives for investment in rare diseases The rare disease landscape offers a clear example of how coordinated policy and regulatory action can transform a previou

232、sly unattractive investment therapeutic area into one of high innovation and growth.Historically,rare or“orphan”diseases were considered financially unattractive91 for pharmaceutical companies to invest in due to their small patient populations,making it difficult to recoup the high costs associated

233、 with drug development.To address these challenges,governments have introduced a variety of incentives to stimulate investment in orphan drugs,including the Orphan Drug Act in the US(see Box 1).The ODA provides pharmaceutical companies with key benefits,including seven years of market exclusivity,ta

234、x credits for clinical trials,fee waivers and access to research grants.Orphan Drug Act turning risk into opportunityBOX 1The Orphan Drug Act(ODA),signed into US law in 1983,provides financial incentives to pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs for rare diseases that affect a limited population

235、of Americans.Since the ODA was passed,the orphan drug market,once seen as unviable,has become a major growth sector92 in pharmaceuticals,valued at over$170 billion93 globally by 2023.By the end of 2024,it is expected94 to reach$204 billion and grow with a CAGR of approximately 8.8%to reach$340 billi

236、on by 2030.Venture capital and private equity investment into rare disease biotech firms has increased significantly,95 as investors see the potential for high returns through these incentives.The ODA provides pharmaceutical companies with key benefits,96 including seven years of market exclusivity

237、for drugs developed for approved orphan diseases,tax credits for clinical trial expenditures,fee waivers and access to research grants through the Office of Orphan Development.These incentives are aimed at reducing financial risk and increasing the potential return on investment for drug developers.

238、In the US,the number of FDA-approved orphan drugs skyrocketed after the ODA was passed(see Figure 5).Over 599 approvals were achieved by mid-2020,97 representing a significant jump from only 38 approvals prior to the ODA.Notably,in 2023,51%of novel FDA-approved drugs98 were orphan drugs compared to

239、20%in 1985,demonstrating the growing importance of orphan drugs in the pharmaceutical pipeline.In terms of health impact,the potential years of life lost to rare diseases before age 65 declined by 3.3%annually from 1999 to 2007,compared to an estimated 0.9%annual increase without new drug approvals.

240、The ODA also had implications for medical devices as it spurred follow-on regulation,including the introduction of the class of humanitarian use devices(HUDs)100 from the FDA.This allows manufacture of medical devices with less proof of efficacy if these devices serve a small number of impacted indi

241、viduals.However,orphan device regulation remains limited101 globally and,as a result,so do innovations to meet needs in these areas.More recently,the FDA instituted an accelerated approval pathway for drugs that fill an unmet medical need within serious conditions.Additionally,companies have been of

242、fered exemptions from mandatory drug discounts implemented with the Affordable Care Act(ACA)if the product has orphan designation.Similar frameworks102 have followed in other market,such as the European Unions Orphan Regulation of 2000.These policies are designed to lower the financial risks and enh

243、ance the potential profitability for drug developers,encouraging them to enter this niche field.These efforts have led to transformative outcomes103 and demonstrate how thoughtful regulatory support and financial incentives can transform an underfunded,high-risk area such as rare diseases into a hig

244、h-investment sector,resulting in both economic growth and life-saving treatments for patients.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions25Impact of Orphan Drug Act on rare disease investment in the US FIGURE 5Source:Rana,P.and Chawla,S.99Orphan product approvalOrphan product d

245、esignationNumber of orphan productsYear019831238699101111112618202020201526263249483924161715141313613131539493357717789815565585757536778786495132123142119165164195203190260293354333701984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201

246、2201320142015201650100150200250300350400Number of orphan product approvals and designations by FDA(1983-2016)Complexity of climate-health data integrationThe complexity of climate-health data integration,which involves integrating climate information into routine decision-making in the health sector

247、,is another significant roadblock.One complication is the diversity of regulations governing data privacy and security.Rules such as Europes General Data Protection Regulation(GDPR),104 the USs Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act105 and Chinas Personal Information Protection Law106 i

248、mpose varying privacy standards.Although these regulations are an important step in data security and digital privacy,they make cross-border data sharing and integration challenging.Building and investing in advanced climate-health data platforms107 that integrate diverse data sets would enable bett

249、er forecasting108 of climate-driven diseases,improving response times and leading to more targeted interventions.109 Investment in AI-driven platforms that link environmental,biodiversity and health data can help identify disease patterns influenced by climate change,enabling pharmaceutical companie

250、s to proactively develop solutions.For instance,the Global Virome Project,110 which unites climate and health experts to predict zoonotic disease outbreaks,serves as a model that could be adapted for climate-sensitive diseases.With better predictive tools,companies can design more effective solution

251、s that address both emerging health risks and longer-term public health impacts.In 2023,private and public sector thought leaders,including WHO,the World Meteorological Organization,the Wellcome Trust and the Rockefeller Foundation,agreed on a three-year action agenda111 to integrate climate and hea

252、lth data and surveillance systems.This includes identifying high-priority gaps and initial requirements for the integration of climate and weather information into health information systems.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions26Another example is Burjeel Holdings,which

253、has launched the Center for Climate and Health112 to introduce advanced screening for climate-sensitive triggers,such as air pollution and extreme heat.Data collections can help clarify links between climate-driven environmental changes and patient symptoms to develop better clinician guidelines and

254、 life sciences innovations;they can also highlight the scale and gravity of the impact of climate on health to increase public awareness.Lack of cross-sector collaboration The lack of collaboration among scientists working in life sciences,environment and climate makes it difficult to coordinate res

255、earch efforts and drive holistic climate-health innovations.Operating in silos leads to missed opportunities for developing holistic solutions that address both health and environmental challenges.By fostering partnerships between these sectors,the life sciences industry can pool its scientific expe

256、rtise113 with environmental insights to create solutions that address the interconnected issues of climate change and health outcomes.Cross-sector collaboration would also bring together different perspectives,encouraging innovations that can address systemic issues,such as environmental influence o

257、n disease patterns.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)have recently developed a guide114 for collaboration on climate and health that supports health department staff in conducting cross-sector outreach for climate adaptation planning.This is a promising initiative,but additional

258、efforts are required globally to support lasting outcomes.Cultural resistance Like most organizational transitions,many life sciences innovators face challenges in securing the buy-in to shift to a more climate-centric agenda and line-up of products and services.To overcome this roadblock,leadership

259、 commitment is crucial.Senior leaders in companies115 across the life sciences industry have made commitments to climate mitigation efforts,such as net zero emissions,but commitments to climate adaptation are not yet common.A more widespread and targeted commitment to adaptation would enable a cultu

260、ral transformation,where climate-health is not seen as diverting resources from core business,but as an essential new frontier with long-term growth opportunities.Low public awarenessClimate changes impact on health is becoming more understood,but public and political awareness remains relatively lo

261、w,weakening advocacy efforts and delaying policy change.However,public campaigns and media engagement could help to address this.Life sciences innovators are in a position to drive public awareness,particularly with the increasing focus on climate-related financial disclosures116 and pressure117 for

262、 companies to engage in good corporate citizenship programmes.118 Regulatory bodies can also play a significant role in promoting awareness.For example,the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how rising death rates fuelled public demand for vaccines and other health interventions.A similar dynamic could

263、arise if hospitals or governments were required to disclose climate-related health impacts,such as mortality from extreme heat or asthma exacerbations.Finally,investors can also play a role by supporting media campaigns and public initiatives that highlight the critical connection between climate an

264、d health.With better predictive tools,companies can design more effective solutions that address both emerging health risks and longer-term public health impacts.Lack of collaboration among scientists working in life sciences,environment and climate makes it difficult to coordinate research efforts

265、and drive holistic climate-health innovations.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions27As life sciences innovators make efforts to develop,manufacture and deliver a new portfolio of climate-driven health treatments,other public and private health partners can take steps to

266、ensure these efforts reach their target population by addressing health equity problems,diversifying supply chains and bolstering health services and infrastructure.Climate change introduces novel vulnerabilities to health systems and public health efforts that need to be addressed proactively.One i

267、n 12 hospitals worldwide 16,245 facilities may be forced to close119 due to extreme weather events by the end of the century.Health system resistance can be supported by life sciences prevention,diagnostics and innovative climate services Climate-resilient infrastructure120 such as hospitals with he

268、at regulation systems and storm-resistant designs will be important for maintaining safe environments for patients and clinicians.A climate health impact resilience framework can help hospitals,clinics,the life sciences industry and the public sector map how to coordinate efforts to resist and recov

269、er from climate crises.The resilience framework comprises two phases(see Figure 6):Health system resistance comprising avoidance(mitigation)and containment(adaptation).Health system recovery comprising stabilization(first response)and return to health(treatment).In addition to resilient infrastructu

270、re,fostering community-health efforts121 through initiatives focused on patient education and preventive care(particularly in chronic disease management)122 is important for reducing strain on the healthcare system so there is capacity during and after climate events.These steps would also create a

271、healthier population that is less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.Expanding home care and outpatient services would allow patients to manage care outside a hospital setting,further easing pressure on resources.Finally,approaches to enable appropriate physician adoption of emerging life s

272、ciences innovation,such as collecting and incorporating123 physician feedback,could improve prevention and diagnostic efforts.Critically,life sciences innovation can contribute to the resistance of health systems through the novel prevention approaches,diagnostics and tech and climate services detai

273、led in Chapter 2 of this report.3.4 Life sciences innovation for health systems resilience and equityOne in 12hospitals worldwide 16,245 facilities may be forced to close due to extreme weather events by the end of the century.Climate health impact resilience frameworkFIGURE 6Health system resistanc

274、e capabilityAvoidance(mitigation)Containment(adaptation)Health system recovery capabilityStabilization(first response)Return to health(treatment)Return to steady-state population health,e.g.TimeClimate eventMonitor for continuous treatment of diseasesStabilize and minimize impact for affected popula

275、tion,e.g.Emergency treatment to reduce risk of long-term health consequences and mortalityReduce health impact and minimize time before start of the Recovery phase,e.g.Anticipate and monitor healthimpact Prepare healthcare services for the health impactEvade or delay a health impact or climate event

276、 entirely,e.g.Eliminate root cause of the climate event Eliminate health impact once climate event occursRelative population health1RationaleWhen presented on a time scale,a resilience framework helps to identify and map solutions for avoidance,containment,stabilization and return to health 1.Vs.ste

277、ady state without climate eventSource:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysisHealthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions28Health system recovery can be supported by life sciences treatment and innovative climate services To enable health systems to recover and function a

278、fter climate shocks,alternative care delivery approaches such as telemedicine and mobile health units124 can be implemented to establish dynamic front-line locations and deploy workers to deliver care during and after crises.The health system could also benefit from adapting to the shifting disease

279、landscape.Re-tasking non-physicians and investing in targeted clinician training are important strategies for expanding capacity during the recovery phase,particularly in mental health,where resources are often constrained.Training programmes could focus on equipping healthcare workers to handle the

280、 shifting burden of disease in different regions,through education in the most effective treatments for various crisis scenarios,as well as preparing them for resource shortages and the need to triage core operations that may be in greater demand during recovery.Supporting workforce well-being is a

281、key part of sustaining health system recovery.By providing mental health resources and offering flexible work options,health systems can help clinicians manage stress and continue delivering care during crises.Cross-system collaboration125 and resource-sharing across industries can enhance readiness

282、126 and ensure a coordinated response when governmental interventions may be delayed.Critically,life sciences innovation can contribute to the recovery of health systems through the novel prevention approaches,diagnostics and tech and climate services detailed in Chapter 2 of this report.Addressing

283、health equity is a pre-requisite to delivering impact across resistance and recoveryHealth systems and other critical private and public partners must join life sciences innovators in efforts to tackle health equity problems.When considering life sciences innovations,it is also important to address

284、and account for social determinants of health,127 such as economic stability,access to and quality of education,and the social and community context.Climate change will intensify disparities in access to prevention,diagnosis,treatment and climate technology and services.Closing these access gaps acr

285、oss diseases is essential for equitable public health outcomes.Coordinated efforts such as early warning systems for climate events and disease outbreaks are important,128 but they must be tailored to local settings,taking into account how different populations access and receive information.Public

286、health measures,in parallel with life sciences efforts,can address the health risks of rising heat levels,for example,by providing cooled shelters for those facing energy poverty and adopting urban planning strategies,such as expanding green spaces,to protect vulnerable populations in areas prone to

287、 the heat island effect.Insurance coverage that allows workers to safely miss work during extreme heat events,such as that provided by the India Extreme Heat Income Insurance Initiative,129 can further protect at-risk populations.Ultimately,coordinated action across the health system,the life scienc

288、es industry and other private and public players can reduce the projected health and economic impacts of climate change.Early warning systems for climate events and disease outbreaks are important,but they must be tailored to local settings,taking into account how different populations access and re

289、ceive information.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions29There are still many unanswered questions regarding the impact of climate change on health.It is particularly important to understand the relationship between climate change and non-communicable diseases(NCDs).Clima

290、te change will aggravate NCDs,already responsible for more deaths than any other cause on the planet.130 For instance,researchers studying Brazil and Australia131 found that for every 1C increase in temperature,the estimated risk of hospitalization for renal diseases lasting up to seven days increas

291、ed by almost 1%.For children,women and those over 80 years old,the risks are even higher.There will also be a higher risk of exposure to air pollution from wildfires and the continued burning of fossil fuels that emit carcinogenic gases such as nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide.For example,air po

292、llution is believed to be responsible for approximately 14%of lung cancer cases worldwide.132 A meta-analysis involving numerous lung cancer cohort studies over the past 25 years found that each 10/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure is associated with another 14%average increase in lung cancer mortality.

293、There could be a higher incidence and higher mortality rate from chronic disease,as already stretched public health resources are switched from regular surveillance and health promotion activities to combating the climate-health crisis.This is a phenomenon caused by excess demand,as seen during the

294、COVID-19 pandemic.133 Diabetes is a non-communicable disease that could be aggravated by climate change,because of diabetics impaired responses to heat stress.This includes compromised vasodilation and sweating,diabetes-related comorbidities and chronic low-grade inflammation.134 Diabetics are also

295、more susceptible to many pathogens because of their altered immune systems.135 It is important to understand the interplay between diseases and to consider how climate-related stresses could disproportionately affect more compromised populations,including those with NCDs.For example,diabetes,obesity

296、 and hypertension often coexist136 and could increase the likelihood of climate-driven health complications.COVID sufferers with comorbidities are also more likely to be hospitalized and develop worse symptoms.1373.5 Avenues for further research:how climate affects non-communicable diseasesHealthcar

297、e in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions30ConclusionGovernments and industry need to join forces now to mobilize global public health systems and unleash life sciences innovation to stay ahead of the advancing crisis.Such investment will save lives and prevent economic losses.A world

298、wide coordinated effort is needed to mitigate the health impacts of climate change,similar to the effort that enabled the global economy to move past the COVID-19 pandemic.The climate crisis will be slower to unfold,but even more deadly.Support should revolve around building a viable economic model

299、for sustainable interventions that relies on multilateral financing mechanisms,with global public-private partnerships to fund the needed R&D and build the health infrastructure to disseminate treatment and care,while delivering an ambitious public education campaign.A coordinated response could sig

300、nificantly reduce negative health and economic consequences through strategic,consistent investment.It is possible to avoid almost half the health impacts and productivity losses projected to occur by 2050 in eight key climate-driven disease areas,along with 45%of deaths and 23%of healthcare costs.T

301、his could be achieved with approximately$65 billion of investment into innovative prevention,diagnostics and treatment over the next five to eight years.The only thing needed is the determination to get ahead of the problem.Investing$65 billion in prevention,diagnostics and treatment could avoid alm

302、ost half the impact of climate change on deaths,health and productivity by 2050.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions31Appendix:Methodology and assumptionsSeveral major reports including ones from The White House,World Bank and Lancet Countdown make similar arguments unde

303、rscoring and collectively reinforcing the significant climate change-driven health risks highlighted in this report.For instance,the Lancet Countdown estimates that heat exposure,intensified by climate change,has resulted in$863 billion in global income losses over the past eight years.It also predi

304、cts increasing heat-related labour losses and deaths.Furthermore,the Lancet Countdown projects that over 500 million additional people will face food insecurity due to climate-driven heatwaves and droughts,along with a more than 30%increase in dengue transmission potential by mid-century.It also pre

305、dicts an expansion of malaria transmission areas and a longer transmission season.These figures support the projections around climate-linked health and economic impacts of heat-related disease,stunting,malaria and dengue that are used as the basis of this report including$7.1 trillion in economic l

306、osses from heat-related diseases and 900 million DALYs from stunting by 2050.The World Health Organization(WHO)forecasts 250,000 additional annual deaths by the 2030s,which is directionally in line with assumptions used in the calculations described below.The World Bank projects 21 million climate-r

307、elated deaths by 2050,compared to the figure of 14.5 million found in this report and the World Economic Forums January 2024 report,Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health.The difference arises mainly from the exclusion of diarrhoea-related deaths,as they are influenced by complex f

308、actors beyond climate change,such as poor sanitation,lack of clean water,malnutrition and socioeconomic conditions.Together,these reports reinforce the focus on key disease areas in the current report and the scale of the impending crisis.The reports methodology follows a three-step approach as foll

309、ows(see Figure A1):1.Assess the burden of diseases most aggravated by climate change.2.Prioritize unmet needs for those diseases.3.Develop a climate and health investment case for the priority unmet needs.The assessment of health and economic impact leverages the climate-related health impact matrix

310、 described initially in the Forums Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health report.It is based on an overview of climate databases and meteorological forecasts,as well as research insights from more than 50 scientific and medical studies.The health matrix establishes connections betw

311、een climate events and heightened disease prevalence and its health and economic impacts.In this follow-up report,the analysis went a step further to assess what could be done to reduce these impacts.The starting point was an analysis of the highest-affected disease areas and their related unmet med

312、ical needs that result in unfavourable health outcomes.The unmet medical needs and their priority were validated through consultations with 14 leading academic experts,researchers and clinicians from institutions such as the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute,the Planetary Health Alliance,Ya

313、le University,the New York Academy of Medicine and the US Department of Health and Human Services.This ensured alignment with real-world challenges across geographies.The most pressing unmet medical needs were then prioritized to identify innovation opportunities for the life sciences sector and to

314、evaluate their potential to reduce the health and economic impacts of climate change.This analysis informed the development of investment cases for each unmet need,by comparing required investments with the monetary and human value of expected health and economic benefits.OverviewHealthcare in a Cha

315、nging Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions32Step-wise approach to assess the burden of climate-related diseases,analyse unmet needs and prioritize investments to mitigate health impactsFIGURE A1Prioritization of unmet needsAssessment of the burden of diseaseDevelopment of climate and health inve

316、stment caseLeverage health outcomes model from the 2024 report1 to identify highest climate impacts on health across geographiesEngage experts to highlight priority diseases not covered in the 2024 report110-15 health outcomes with highest burden across geographiesIdentify medical interventions and

317、unmet medical needs for the selected health outcomes,by regionPrioritize unmet needs based on existing and pipeline solutions,associated size of health outcomes and commercial potentialAssess life sciences sector potential to address unmet needsDevelop a high-level investment case to assess commerci

318、al viability and health improvement potentialPrioritized list of high impact unmet needs by disease and regionCommercial and ethical ROI assessment for prioritized unmet needs1231.World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman,Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health,2024.Source:World Economi

319、c Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.The first step used the Forums climate-related health impact matrix to identify the diseases,regions and populations most affected by rising temperatures and climate change.This focused on the impact of six major climate events that increase in severity and frequenc

320、y because of global warming flooding,droughts,heatwaves,tropical storms,wildfires and rising sea levels.These events also cause significant environmental and economic damage,including destruction of agriculture,deforestation,desertification,coastal erosion,water scarcity and soil degradation.Data li

321、nking the effects of these weather events on health outcomes and determinants was gathered from various sources,including WHOs climate change framework,the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)and over 50 medical and scientific research public

322、ations.The final list consisted of eight priority diseases:vector-borne diseases(malaria and dengue),mental health disorders(GAD,PTSD),stunting,heat-related illnesses,hypertension and asthma.Starting point:highest burden climate-induced diseases1Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilien

323、t Solutions33The second step involved identifying current therapies and unmet medical needs for the priority diseases across geographies(see Figure A2).These were based on the availability of existing and pipeline solutions,the scale of the health impact and their commercial potential.The approach b

324、egan with a thorough analysis of each priority disease,detailing its etiology and pathophysiology.This included explanations of the underlying causes,biological mechanisms,symptoms and diagnostic processes.The progression and prognosis of each disease were outlined,alongside preventive measures and

325、risk factors.Regional variations in disease manifestation were also examined to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the health outcomes in different geographies.Prioritization of unmet medical needs by disease2Phased approach to describe the disease,assess treatments and prioritize unmet needs w

326、ith the largest impact potentialFIGURE A2Prioritization of unmet needs2Detail treatments and identify unmet needsDescribe etiology and pathophysiologyAssess and prioritize unmet needsProvide disease overview,explaining causes,biological mechanisms,symptoms and diagnosticsDetail prognosis and evoluti

327、on of the disease,preventive measures and risk factors,differences across geographiesDisease overview,etiology and pathophysiologyReview existing clinical guidelines and R&D pipeline covering medications,medical devices and digital solutionsIdentify unmet needs for high burden disease along preventi

328、on,diagnostics and treatmentPrioritize high impact unmet needs based on their potential to reduce the burden of disease and improve quality of lifeLeverage scientific literature and press releases and validate with scientific and medical expertsOverview of existing and emerging medical interventions

329、 and corresponding unmet needsPrioritized list of unmet needs with highest impact potentialABCSource:World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis.Healthcare in a Changing Climate:Investing in Resilient Solutions34Next,a review of the currently available treatments was conducted,focusing on prevent

330、ion protocols,diagnostics,treatments,public health services such as early warning systems,and testing and ongoing research across pharmaceutical companies.This analysis revealed gaps in the prevention,diagnosis and treatment of high-burden diseases,highlighting areas where effective solutions are ei

331、ther lacking or underdeveloped.As a result,99 unmet needs were identified across eight priority diseases.Finally,these 99 unmet medical needs were prioritized based on their potential to significantly reduce negative disease outcomes and improve quality of life,while reducing the overall economic im

332、pact and providing sufficient incentives to foster investment and innovation.To ensure alignment with real-world challenges,input was sought from academic experts,researchers and clinicians.Given the complexity and variations in the scientific and medical literature,these consultations were crucial

333、in validating the findings and ensuring that both the prioritization of unmet medical needs and assumptions for investment case development were accurate and actionable.From the prioritized list of unmet needs,36 were identified as high-and medium-high impact and selected for investment case assessment.The investment case was broken down into its components,namely preventable impact and the requir