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1、Trumps tariff threats and a spotlight on competitivenessEurope outlook 2025Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the global dynamics that affect your organisation,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the fu

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3、ctively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs expe

4、rts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU,part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on

5、the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,governments and multinational corporations make informed decisions and navigate complex business envir

6、onments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20243 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 E-mail:New YorkEconomist Intelligence 900 Third Aven

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8、1 124 6409486 E-mail:Dubai Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056 Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai United Arab EmiratesTel:+971 4 4463 147 E-mail:The complete analysis summarised in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or explor

9、e its features and content,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Europe outlook 2025Trumps tariff threats and a spotlight on competitivenessEurope outlook 2025What to watch in 2025:EuropeSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved

10、.Europe faces a challenging 2025.Sluggish economic growth plus the protectionist trade policies of the incoming Trump administration in the US mean that recession risks will be high.At the same time,the Draghi report has sounded the alarm about the regions loss of global competitiveness,and policyma

11、kers will be grappling with how to address this.Difficult decisions will be made harder by an increasingly fragmented political scene,with immigration a dominant political concern.Southern Europe Buoyant tourism sectors continue to drive economic growth Efforts to process migrant arrivals in third c

12、ountries accelerate In Turkey,policy orthodoxy will continueWestern Europe New US import tariffs:Germany,Ireland and Italy will be most vulnerable Draghi report spurs efforts to ease the regulatory burden for EU firms Change of government in Germany after earlyelection in FebruaryEastern Europe Trum

13、p-led Russia-Ukraine talks highly unlikelyto result in a lasting peace Stagflation risks for Russia as growth slowssharply amid capacity constraintsCentral Europe Robust growth fuelled by domestic demand,EU fund inflows and investment Tight labour markets and sluggish demand from Germany limit expan

14、sion US pressure on Europe to derisk from China encourages nearshoring500 kmOpenStreetMapcontributors5 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Europe outlook 2025Trumps tariff threats and a spotlight on competitivenessDonald Trumps decisive victory at the US presidential election has increased t

15、he risk of a downturn in Europe.“Emily MansfieldRegional director,EuropeThe EU is the biggest trading partner of the US,and its export-oriented economies would be heavily exposed to blanket US import tariffs.We expect tariffs to be imposed in late 2025,probably at closer to 5-10%than the 20%he has t

16、hreatened,with the main impact in 2026.Still,renewed uncertainty about the global economic outlookwith rising trade protectionism and growing geopolitical riskscould undermine external demand and consumer confidence,pushing the European economy into recession.Germany,Ireland and Italy are most vulne

17、rable;in contrast,growth in 2025 will be boosted in eastern Europe by nearshoring,and in southern Europe by tourism.Country AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.What to watch:Europes economy could benefit from U

18、S firms front-loading orders in 2025 to beat the tariffs and the stronger US dollar making European exports more competitive.Downside risks include a flood of cheap imports from China into Europe.6 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Europe outlook 2025Trumps tariff threats and a spotlight o

19、n competitiveness201920202021202220232024202520269095100105110115The US economy has been The US economy has been growing much faster than Europegrowing much faster than EuropeThe US economy has been growing much faster than EuropeThe German economy is the The German economy is the same size now as i

20、n 2019same size now as in 2019The German economy is the same size now as in 2019Can Europe arrest its slide in global competitiveness?Mario Draghis warnings about the future of European competitiveness will add urgency to the EU policy agenda in 2025.Mr Draghi,a former European Central Bank presiden

21、t,has warned that the region faces“slow agony”if it does not boost productivity,with its ageing population otherwise leading to economic stagnation over the longer term.Already,Europes investment into advanced technologies has lagged that of China and the US,and the EU has fallen substantially behin

22、d the US in terms of real GDP per head.The European Commission that takes office in December will be tasked,at least in part,with parsing Mr Draghis 400 pages of policy recommendations and deciding how to address this.What to watch:Wins are likely in 2025 on the more uncontroversial proposals,such a

23、s reducing regulatory requirements for firms.Finding consensus on transformational policy areas,like reducing EU capital market fragmentation,will remain challenging.The European economy has been falling behind the USReal GDP per head;2019=100Source:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024

24、.All rights reserved.FranceItalyGermanySpainUKUS7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Europe outlook 2025Trumps tariff threats and a spotlight on competitivenessWhat will the dominant political issue be?The cost of living will still be front of mind for voters in 2025,but concerns about immi

25、gration will have the greatest impact on policy.The public consensus on migration has shifted dramatically to the right in Europe over the past decade,with ideas that used to be considered extreme becoming normalised and adopted by mainstream parties.In 2025,in the interim period before the EUs new

26、Migration and Asylum Pact comes into force in mid-2026,many governments will take unilateral action to speed up the processing of asylum applications and the deportation of those who fail to qualify.What to watch:The most significant vote will be the snap German federal election in February,which th

27、e centre-righttaking a tough line on immigrationis set to win.Political stability in France,where a snap election will become feasible from end-June,will also be important to monitor.8 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Europe outlook 2025Trumps tariff threats and a spotlight on competitive

28、nessMeet the EIU teamEmily Mansfield is the Regional director for Europe at EIU,leading the coverage of European political and economic affairs,and managing a large team of analysts,with the goal of producing market-leading analysis and accurate forecasts.Her specialist areas are France,Germany,the

29、UK and Europe-wide issues.Emily joined EIU in 2011,having previously worked in France and the US.She holds a graduate diploma in economics from Birkbeck,as well as bachelor and masters degrees from the University of Cambridge.Emily MansfieldRegional director,EuropeSpecialist subjects Geopolitics,Mac

30、roeconomics,Democracy,Productivity,Technology,Country risk,Business environment,Index building,Politics,Sovereign riskLanguages English,FrenchLocation London9 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20249 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Visit or scan the QR codeNavigate an ever-changing

31、global marketEIUs Country Analysis service assesses the political,policy and economic outlook.Our insights make sense of the global trends affecting your organisation.Connect to request a bespoke demonstration of our forward-looking intelligence.Copyright 2024 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited

32、.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.