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1、1 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025The impact of a new US presidency EIU Global outlook 2025Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the glob

2、al dynamics that affect your organisation,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accurately

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4、 to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence

5、 that moves you forwardEIU,part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,gover

6、nments and multinational corporations make informed decisions and navigate complex business environments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20253Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7576 8000

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9、 Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or explore its features and content,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025EIU Global outlook 2025We expect that short-term interest rates will

10、 continue to fall gradually in advanced economies and many emerging economies in 2025-26.The process could be uneven,however,with stickiness in prices,notably the US,leading to delays in further monetary loosening.On the fiscal side,high public debt levels mean that bond markets will remain sensitiv

11、e to expansionary fiscal programmes that are not adequately funded.Slower growth in North America in 2025 offset by faster expansion in Asia,Europe and Middle East and Africa%change in real GDP,by region;market exchange rateSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserve

12、d.The outlook for global trade is stable,although risks are skewed to the downside given the expected protectionist tilt in US policy.The US president,Donald Trump,declined to implement tariffs on China in his first days in office but we believe these are still likely in early 2025,with those on oth

13、er major trading partners likely to begin to materialise in the second half of the year.This will encourage a front-loading of purchases that will yield higher trade growth than in 2024.Higher inventory levels will cause trade growth to slow more noticeably from the second half of 2025.EIU forecasts

14、 that global real GDP growth will accelerate from an estimated 2.5%last year to 2.7%in 2025.Global2.52.7North America2.52.1Europe1.41.7Asia-Pacific3.73.8Latin America2.12.2Middle East1.63.5Africa2.73.92024|2025|012345 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a

15、 new US presidency January 2025Trumps China tariffs 2.0:EIUs forecastProbabilityRate15%60%25%Weighted average of effective tariff rate(WATR;existing rate of about 10%)Rate10%additional increase,or a total of 20%20%additional increase,or a total of 30%40%additional increase,or a total of 50%*and revo

16、ke Chinas PNTR statusReal GDP growth,taking into account policy response20254.8%4.6%4%20264.5%4.3%3.5%Exchange rate(Rmb:US$)Rate7.25 by end-20267.45 by end-2026Temporarily approaching 8Optimistic scenarioBaseline scenarioPessimistic scenarioRelatively high US interest rates and the imposition of tar

17、iffs,alongside geopolitical risk,will preserve the strength of the US dollar.We expect the yen to remain weak in the near term and not to undo its losses of recent years,with Japanese interest rates likely to near their peak in 2025.The renminbi is forecast to weaken in response to anticipated US ta

18、riffs.The pesos weak value already reflects Mexicos exposure to Mr Trumps threatened trade measures.Crude oil prices will remain volatile owing to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns about weak demand in China.They should average close to current levels in 2025-26,before declining.We

19、expect prices for agricultural commodities to remain on a broad downward trend,but beverage prices are set to remain higher for longer.Prices for most base metals are again trending upwards,and will continue to do so driven by the green transition and a related recovery in global construction activi

20、ty tied to the ongoing electrification drive.Source:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.*Assumes a greater degree of exemptions,given the higher threatened duty rates.Note.The 20%and 40%additional increases in effective tariff rate(or 60%statutory tariff hike)inclu

21、de the 10%tariffs threatened in regard to fentanyl.6 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025The US economy will show continued strength.Higher ten-year yields will take a bite out of growth in the first half of the 2025,testin

22、g the productivity-led growth that dominated in 2024,and we expect policy pivots under Mr Trump to generate some uncertainty.Although our baseline forecast is for another full percentage point of cuts from the Federal Reserve(Fed,the central bank)over 2025,we expect the next reduction to be delayed

23、until the second quarter of the year.The continuing strength of the US economy and persistent inflation in some areas mean that there is also now a high risk that the Fed will cut by less.Chinas economy will still face headwinds in 2025.A big external challenge arises from Mr Trumps second term.We e

24、xpect US tariffs to be increased on Chinese imports over his presidency,given limited scope for bilateral negotiation.Although front-loading of exports in 2025 could temporarily boost Chinas economic performance,tariffs will ultimately weigh on external demand for Chinese exports and dampen domestic

25、 sentiment,particularly against a backdrop of already weak confidence.USChinaDomestic demand will be pivotal for Chinas economy in 2025 as external challenges mount Contribution to real GDP growth(%)0246202320242025FinalconsumptionGross capitalformationExternalbalance5.2%5.2%5.2%5%5%5%4.6%(forecast)

26、4.6%(forecast)4.6%(forecast)Source:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.Note:final consumption consists of private consumption and government consumption.7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2

27、025We forecast that Japans economy will return to expansion.Private consumption growth will pick up pace from mid-2025,amid easing inflation and improving real wage growth,although the recovery will be capped by trade disruptions emanating from US trade policy.The central bank will remain cautious t

28、o prevent its policy normalisation from causing an economic recession or undermining its success in reflating the economy.We expect the Bank of Japan(the central bank)to lift its policy rate only once more in 2025,so that it stands at to 0.75%by year-end,and this will not be sufficient to engineer s

29、trong yen appreciation.Germany will remain the slowest-growing large global economy.This will be even after two consecutive years of contraction and zero growth in cumulative terms since 2019.Poor demographics,a public investment deficit compared with peer economies,pressure on competitiveness from

30、energy prices and high exposure to an increasingly complicated trade relationship with China will continue to limit German growth.Germany is also the most exposed within Europe to US tariffs owing to its large trade surplus with the US,the openness of its economy and its large industrial sector.We f

31、orecast Indian growth to remain the fastest of major global economies.Indias economic momentum slowed in 2024,as high cost-of-living pressures dented urban consumption,and national and regional elections delayed government investment.However,factors such as monetary easing,strong rural consumption d

32、emand and front-loading of export orders will support growth in 2025.Stricter immigration rules for skilled emigrants under a second Trump administration in the US will affect labour mobility for Indians,but will not meaningfully dent remittance flows back to India.US tariffs will add some pressure

33、on Indias current-account deficit and currency,although India is far less vulnerable than China and South-east Asia.JapanGermanyIndiaCountry AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.8 The Economist Intelligence Unit

34、 Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025Global economic forecastReal GDP growth(%)World(market exchange rates)2.52.72.6US2.72.32.0China5.04.64.3Germany0.10.60.7Japan0.20.80.8India6.66.56.7Consumer price inflation(%;av)World5.94.63.6US2.82.42.3China0.20.70.9G

35、ermany2.42.01.9Japan2.62.21.7India4.84.34.4Commodity pricesOil(US$/barrel;Brent)80.775.672.8World non-oil commodity prices(US$,%change)0.74.03.4Main policy interest rates(%,end-period)Federal Reserve4.43.42.9Bank of Japan0.30.81.0European Central Bank3.01.81.8Bank of England4.84.03.0Exchange rates(a

36、v)US$effective(2010=100)130.2131.0129.5:US$151.5150.3138.4US$:1.081.051.04Rmb:US$7.197.347.43US$:1.281.271.26202420252026Source:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.Note.Grey shading indicates 2025-26 forecast period.9 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU

37、 Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025The impact of a new US presidencyMr Trumps initial actions as president evoked central themes of his election platform,they broadly fell short of his most aggressive policy pledges.We interpret this as an early sign that he will strug

38、gle to enact the most controversial elements of his agenda,even if major shifts in US policy still appear forthcoming.This will reflect sensitivity to capital markets,as well divisions between Mr Trump and the Republican Congress over their legislative strategy.19901995200020052010201520202025051015

39、202530ChinaCanadaMexicoAll importsTrump 1.0Trump 1.0Trump 1.0EIU expects tariffs to rise on China,Canada and Mexico but by less than the blanket tariff threats made by Mr TrumpAverage effective US tariff rates,by country,19892023,and EIU forecast;%Note.Dashed lines show forecasts.Source:USITC;EIU.Co

40、pyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.ChinaCanadaMexicoAll importsAbsent from Mr Trumps early actions was any increase in US tariffs.This aligned with our forecast that sweeping new tariffsincluding targeted duties towards China,Mexico and Canadawould not materialise at th

41、e start of Mr Trumps term.Mr Trump instead has announced official reviews into unfair trade practices and potential currency manipulation by US trading partners,with a deadline for most of these reviews of April 1st.The presidents statements threatening Canada,China and Mexico with earlier tariffs w

42、e interpret as a rolling threat and to help shape the parameters of future negotiations.However,the creation of a new External Revenue Service does suggest that some new tariffs are coming.We continue to expect the overall US weighted tariff rate to rise eventually to 5-10%(from about 2.5%currently)

43、during Mr Trumps presidency.Tariffs10 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025Although border security featured prominently in Mr Trumps early announcements,numerous legal and logistical obstacles continue to weigh against his

44、top policy objectives.Some of Mr Trumps early orders have quickly overturned key elements of the previous Democratic administrations border policies,as he promised to do.This has included suspending all refugee resettlement and developing stricter criteria for vetting migrant arrivals.Other orders w

45、ill be more difficult to implement.Mr Trump has reinstated his previous“Remain in Mexico”policy,although this will require buy-in from Mexicos government to take full effect.His declared national emergency at the US-Mexico border has unlocked additional powers and resources,but any use of the milita

46、ry in an expanded role will encounter court challenges.A separate order to limit birth-right citizenship,which only Congress can authorise,already faces several lawsuits.Plans for mass deportations of undocumented migrants will also require congressional action,although agreement on a required fundi

47、ng bill is still some ways off.Mr Trump has also designated drug cartels as foreign terrorist organisations,which he previously cited as a potential cause for staging unilateral military operations in Mexico.However,we still view such an unprecedented outcome as very unlikely,not least because of th

48、e violence and instability that it would cause so close to the US border.Mr Trumps inaugural address referenced the expansion of US territory as an explicit goal,marking a sharp shift from recent administrations.This included a reference to space exploration,but also to the Panama Canal,which Mr Tru

49、mp plans to“take back”.He also signed an executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico,although this authority does not extend beyond the US.(Mexico has rejected the name change.)Previous expansionist references to Canada and Greenland did not appear in his Inauguration Day speeches or orders,but cou

50、ld resurface further down the line.Overall,we continue to interpret these statements less as declarations of specific policy intentions and more as signals of Mr Trumps emerging world view,which places geostrategic significance on the wider territorial sphere of the Americas,particularly amid the US

51、-China rivalry.ImmigrationTerritorial expansion11 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025Mr Trump plans to add to what will already be a full in-tray of international issuesPotential international hotspots during Mr Trumps fir

52、st yearSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.Note.Hatching denotes combination of issue types.TradeTrade and ideologicalDiplomatic and securitySecurity and ideologicalIdeological and culturalAllTrade and securityMr Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Climate

53、Agreement and the OECD tax deal,which we long expected him to do.He also withdrew the US from the World Heath Organisation(WHO),looking to fulfil an unmet policy objective from his first term.The order targeting the OECD tax deal includes instructions to the Treasury department to draft retaliatory

54、measures against countries with tax rules that disproportionately target US companies.The move not only jeopardises the OECD tax deals future,but also sets up a potential trade war over topics covered by the agreement,including digital service taxes(DSTs).We expect these issues,particularly DSTs,to

55、emerge as central negotiating points of upcoming bilateral discussions between the US and its major trade partners,especially the EU and Canada,which are also signatories to the OECD tax deal.Multilateralism12 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US

56、presidency January 2025Mr Trump took several actions aimed at promoting fossil fuels and pivoting away from the previous administrations focus on the green transition.This included orders to open public land and federal waters to oil drilling and mining,to repeal regulations promoting electric vehic

57、les,and to halt approvals for wind farms in federal waters.He also declared a national energy emergency,even though the US is already the worlds largest producer of oil and natural gas.Mr Trump also ordered federal agencies to pause and review further spending from the previous administrations Infla

58、tion Reduction Act(IRA);however,most IRA spending occurs through tax credits,which only Congress can repeal.This reinforces our scepticism that Mr Trump will manage to unwind IRA substantially,especially as many Republican voting districts have benefited from the laws investments.Green transition an

59、d energyCountry AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.13 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025EIU Global outlook 2025The impact of a new US presidency January 2025Tom is a seasoned analyst who delivers hig

60、h impact global research and insight.He identifies the economic and geopolitical themes that will shape the global business landscape and leads the development of powerful,data-driven forecasts that make a difference for clients.A sought after presenter of the EIUs global outlook at keynote events,T

61、om enjoys sharing his views in boardroom settings and appears regularly in media.Meet the EIU teamTom RaffertyHead of global forecasting and economicsSpecialist subjects Development,corporate strategy,emerging markets,geopolitics,macroeconomics,politics,public policy,riskLanguages English,MandarinLo

62、cation London14 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202514Visit or scan the QR codeNavigate an ever-changing global marketEIUs Country Analysis service assesses the political,policy and economic outlook.Our insights make sense of the global trends affecting your organisation.Connect to request a

63、 bespoke demonstration of our forward-looking intelligence.Copyright 2025 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopyi

64、ng,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.