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1、UNLOCK ING FUSION ENERGYNavigating challenges&opportunities in fusion energy commercialization2025CONTENTFOREWORD 3EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 41.FUSIONS ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION 62.UNDERSTANDING FUSION ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 83.ACCELERATING MOMENTUM DRIVES INTEREST IN FUSION 104.THE PATH TO COMMERCIAL

2、IZATION 145.KEY STEPS TO ESTABLISHING A FUSION ECOSYSTEM 16CONCLUSION:NOW IS THE TIME TO FOCUS ON FUSION 18STEPHAN RUEHL Partner,Energy,Utilities&Resources MunichMICHAEL KRUSE Managing Partner,Energy,Utilities&Resources ZurichLARS OLE NOWAKManager,Energy,Utilities&Resources FrankfurtARTUR KORINSKIMa

3、nager,Energy,Utilities&Resources MunichALINA SIMON Consultant,Growth MunichMAXIM RUDConsultant,Growth MunichWe would like to extend our sincere thanks to Mike Dunne,a leading expert in fusion energy,for his significant contributions to our research and his invaluable input to this report.2In the eve

4、r-evolving global energy landscape,the pursuit of sustainable,reliable,and economical energy sources has never been more critical.Across many countries,the debate on how to approach the energy transition is often influenced by ideology,lacking the necessary openness to a broad spectrum of technologi

5、es.Practitioners in the energy sector recognize that the current trajectory of the energy transition is costly and fraught with risks of failure.The energy world of the future demands both reliability and flexibility in supply.Today,battery storage and gas plants are considered the predominant solut

6、ions to meet these needs.But is this the only viable path forward?Are there emerging options on the horizon that merit serious consideration?Four years ago,Arthur D.Little(ADL)published its first Report on the prospects of fusion energy,entering a debate that was just beginning to gain traction.This

7、 latest Report revisits the topic,offering an updated perspective on fusion energy,assessing its current status,and illuminating the path to commercialization.The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources is no longer just an environmental imperative it is an economic opportunity.The deba

8、te about fusion energy can potentially stand at the forefront of this transition since it drives the discussion of a technology-agnostic and non-ideologized energy world of the future.We hope this Report provides valuable insights and contributes to shaping an open and forward-thinking discussion ab

9、out the future of energy.Stephan Rhl Partner Energy,Utilities&Resources Michael Kruse Managing Partner Energy,Utilities&Resources FORE WORDARTHUR D.LITTLE3Fusion energy is at a key moment.Once considered a technology 30 years away from reality,recent scientific breakthroughs and societys desire for

10、carbon-neutral power are creating pathways to commercialization,with the first commercial grid-connected fusion power plants expected to come online in the 2040s.The need for clean,safe,sustainable energy combined with fusion technology advances and government and investor backing means now is the t

11、ime to take a fresh look at fusion as part of the future energy mix.The world faces an increasing energy-supply gap as fossil fuel power plants switch off.Wind and solar alone cannot deliver the consistent,always-on power required in a world using increasingly more electricity,even with the addition

12、 of battery storage.Nuclear fission brings challenges around cost,safety,and waste disposal.This leaves a pressing need for new green power sources,and fusion has the potential to provide a long-term solution that guarantees energy security for countries,businesses,and consumers.Fusion creates energ

13、y by combining hydrogen atoms at extremely high temperatures in the same way that stars create light and heat.Researchers have studied it for more than a century,and in 2022,the US National Ignition Facility(NIF)conducted the first experiment that generated more energy than it consumed.Subsequent ex

14、periments have repeated this net energy gain,sparking enormous interest from governments and investors.ADL first explored the potential of fusion energy in 2021.1 Building on that and subsequent client work,this Report breaks down the road to commercialization for fusion energy.Although a range of c

15、hallenges around technology,regulation,and cost must be overcome,opportunities are vast particularly for early investors.To drive success,technology vendors,governments,energy operators,investors,and regulators must work together to build a fusion ecosystem,collaborating to commercialize the power o

16、f the sun and deliver safe,scalable green power to meet rapidly increasing energy needs.1 Kruse,Michael,et al.“The Next Big Bang in Emissions-Free Energy.”Arthur D.Little,October 2021.E XECUTIVE SUMMARY4REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLE51.FUSION S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY TR ANSITIONFAC

17、TORS DRIVING GREEN ENERGY DEMANDGlobally,the demand for green energy is growing,with the International Energy Agency(IEA)forecasting that electricity requirements in 2024 and 2025 will expand by around 4%,among the highest percentage growth levels in the last 20 years.2 This is driven by the electri

18、fication of transport and industrial and domestic heating,greater power usage in data centers due to the growth of AI,increased energy demand for green hydrogen and other alternative fuel production,and overall economic growth.For example,Indian demand is expected to grow by 8%in 2024.At the same ti

19、me,the need to decarbonize is removing fossil fuel sources such as coal,oil,and natural gas from the energy mix.Net zero emissions pledges and targets by countries,combined with regulations in many regions,are contributing to the demand for clean,accessible,available power.IEA forecasts that in 2025

20、,the amount of global electricity generated by renewables will overtake coal generation.However,renewable sources such as wind and solar cannot deliver sufficient energy to replace fossil fuels.There is a large gap between announced renewable energy projects and demand,stretching to 2050 and beyond.

21、This impacts energy security for countries looking to guarantee sufficient electricity for their citizens and businesses moving forward.2“Global Electricity Demand Set to Rise Strongly This Year and Next,Reflecting Its Expanding Role in Energy Systems Around the World.”IEA,19 July 2024.MANY RENEWABL

22、E ENERGY SOURCES DONT PROVIDE CONSTANT BASELOAD POWERMany renewable energy sources are intermittent and dont consistently provide the constant baseload power that businesses and consumers require.When the wind doesnt blow and the sun doesnt shine,renewable production drops to zero often when power i

23、s most needed.This dependence on weather leads to sharply rising prices at times of peak demand and a general requirement to build out transmission grids and import energy from neighboring countries.At the same time,if all countries expanded their renewable capacity,this would increase power-availab

24、ility issues,as they all face the same problems during times of high demand and low production.Battery storage can provide some assistance by storing excess renewable energy and making it available at times of high demand and low production,but its widespread adoption faces challenges.Scaling batter

25、y production sufficiently is difficult given raw material shortages,and because batteries only cover short-term(sub-hourly,hourly,and daily)balancing,they dont help countries meet long-term or seasonal needs.6REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLEFigure 1.Options for energy supplyUNDERSTANDIN

26、G GREEN ENERGY SUPPLY OPTIONSLow-emission,always-on power sources are needed to meet baseload demand and anchor the green energy system alongside renewable sources.Nuclear fission reactors are one option.However,existing reactors are aging,and new builds have experienced budget and time overruns.Sma

27、ll modular reactors(SMRs)are one way to meet baseload requirements.These are scaled-down fission reactors designed to be less expensive and faster to build and deploy.Demonstrating their concerns about energy security,leading cloud data center operators are investing in SMRs to secure future electri

28、city capacity,taking a proactive approach to mitigate the risks from the forecast electricity supply gap while meeting their targets of only using clean energy 24/7.Google announced it will buy electricity from SMRs developed by start-up Kairos Power,and Amazon is investing in the X-Energy Reactor C

29、ompany.Microsoft has agreed to purchase power from a nuclear reactor(Three Mile Island)in the US that had previously been shut down.FUSION ENERGY MAY BE A BETTER LONG-TERM ALTERNATIVE THAN ADAPTING FISSION TECHNOLOGYHowever,given concerns around SMR scalability,nuclear waste disposal,and general pub

30、lic concerns about safety,fusion energy may be a better long-term alternative than adapting fission technology.Recognizing this,cloud data center operators are investing in fusion start-ups alongside their investments into SMR developers to increase optionality.Fusion energy is predicted to supply s

31、calable,limitless green power with minimal waste and high safety levels.It can be deployed anywhere and,unlike hydropower,does not require a particular type of terrain.It delivers constant,baseload energy and has a minimal environmental impact(see Figure 1).Although theres considerable work needed t

32、o commercialize fusion technologies,recent scientific breakthroughs,high levels of government support,and increasing investment demonstrate that the timeline to successful large-scale implementation is shortening.Note:(1)Assumption:storage is using renewables and working as source of flexibility;(2)

33、high-temperature heat applied in pyrolysis;(3)assumption that new built coal/gas/nuclear will be able to mostly use existing infrastructure Source:Arthur D.Little,US Department of Energy(DOE)Note:(1)Assumption:storage is using renewables and working as source of flexibility;(2)high-temperature heat

34、applied in pyrolysis;(3)assumption that new built coal/gas/nuclear will be able to mostly use existing infrastructureSource:Arthur D.Little,US Department of Energy(DOE)Figure 1.Options for energy supplyBaseload(Industr.)heatH2/e-fuels2UtilizationLand usageGrid buildout3GHG emissionsEnviron-mental im

35、pactSafetyTechnologyCriteriaFusion energySolarWind:offshoreWind:onshoreHydropowerBioenergyCoalNatural gasNuclear fissionStorage1Advantageous ModerateDisadvantageous72.UNDERSTANDING FUSION ENERGY TECHNOLOGYUnlike nuclear fission,which splits atoms to release energy,fusion energy combines light atomic

36、 nuclei(usually hydrogen isotopes of deuterium and tritium)under extreme conditions to form heavier nuclei(see Figure 2).The gas becomes a plasma(a hot,charged gas made of positive ions and free-moving electrons with unique properties compared to solids,liquids,or gases),and the nuclei combine to fo

37、rm a helium nucleus and a neutron.The process releases energy as high-energy particles.As envisioned in future power plants,fusion is similar to the physical process that occurs in stars like our sun.However,it requires extremely high temperatures(more than 100 million degrees Celsius)to overcome pa

38、rticle repulsion and generate fusion plasma.The plasma must be maintained at high temperatures and confined for long enough to produce greater amounts of fusion energy than the energy input required to power the process(called the“breakeven point”).Fusion efficiency depends on temperature,plasma den

39、sity,and confinement time,referred to as the“Lawson criterion.”3“Bringing the Power Source of the Stars Down to Earth Could Give Us Low-Carbon Electricity for Millennia to Come.”UK Atomic Energy Authority,accessed January 2025.FUSION IS SIMILAR TO THE PHYSICAL PROCESS THAT OCCURS IN STARS LIKE OUR S

40、UNFusion energy promises:-Close to zero CO2 emissions-Minimal,short-lifespan waste(particularly compared to the half-life of waste from fission reactors),removing the need for future waste storage -Easily available fuels(deuterium extracted from water and tritium produced from lithium within closed

41、fuel cycles)-Minimal spatial requirements for facilities and no constraints on where they can be located-Ability to generate heat and power hydrogen production alongside electricity -High efficiency(a 1-gigawatt fusion power station needs less than 1 tonne of fusion fuel to operate for a year)3-Grea

42、ter levels of safety compared to fission reactors(minimal fuel usage,no risk of meltdowns/runaway reactors,no long-lasting nuclear waste)The principles of fusion energy have been well-known and well-understood at a theoretical level since the early 20th century.Achieving breakeven energy has been ch

43、allenging,but recent breakthroughs show considerable progress toward net energy gains.Figure 2.The fusion energy processSource:Arthur D.Little,Fusion for Energy,International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA),Max Planck InstituteSource:Arthur D.Little,Fusion for Energy,International Atomic Energy Agency(IA

44、EA),Max Planck InstituteFigure 2.The fusion energy processDeuterium D Hydrogen isotope extracted from waterTritium THydrogen isotope generated through bombarding of lithium with neutronsHeliumFUSIONREACTIONNeutronProton(+)NeutronENERGY8REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLELATEST FUSION ENERG

45、Y TECHNOLOGIESFive technology approaches are being pursued by public research facilities and a growing number of start-ups:1.Magnetic confinement fusion energy(MFE)2.Inertial confinement fusion energy(IFE)3.Magneto-inertial confinement fusion energy4.Hybrid magnetic/electrostatic fusion energy5.Muon

46、-catalyzed fusion energyThe first two,MFE and IFE,are the most advanced in terms of net energy gain,resulting in a large number of well-funded start-ups building on the work and investment of public research projects.Half of the 47 fusion start-ups focus on MFE;20%focus on IFE.Both magneto-inertial

47、and magnetic/electrostatic fusion approaches are being sought by at least one player with significant funding,but only limited research has been carried out on muon-catalyzed fusion.MFEThis is the most researched fusion energy technology,with scientific projects stretching back to the 1980s,includin

48、g the UKs Joint European Torus(JET)project.Its successor,ITER,is being built in France,with a completion date of 2034.As the name suggests,MFE confines high-temperature plasma using magnetic fields,with the aim of retaining it for long enough to achieve a net energy gain,expressed as having a fusion

49、 energy gain factor(Qsci)of greater than one.There are two primary MFE designs:tokamaks and stellarators.Tokamaks generate magnetic fields in a toroidal or torus(doughnut-shaped)chamber.Although the JET facility achieved the production of sustained fusion energy over a five to six second period,at n

50、o point did it exceed breakeven,reaching a maximum Qsci of 0.67 in 1997.Stellarators confine plasma using twisted magnetic fields generated by complex helical coils.The Wendelstein 7-X in Germany,the Helically Symmetric Experiment in the US,and the Large Helical Device in Japan all use this approach

51、.They are all currently running in exploratory mode.IFELaser-based inertial fusion energy confines the fuel through focused,high-energy lasers.These implode small quantities of fuel pellets injected into the chamber to produce plasma and energy.In 2022,NIF at the Lawrence Livermore National Laborato

52、ry first successfully achieved net energy gain(Qsci 1),using IFE.Subsequent experiments improved this to a Qsci figure of 2.4,generating 2.4x more energy than used to power the process.Note that the efficiency of the NIF laser itself is low(1%),and so a power plant would instead use more modern semi

53、conductor diode lasers to provide an overall plant gain 1.These breakthrough results demonstrated the viability of fusion energy and sparked global interest and investment.A comparison of publicly funded MFE and IFE research projects shows that IFE has delivered stronger scientific results over a sh

54、orter time with lower funding,achieving net energy gain within 25 years.No MFE research facility has yet achieved a Qsci of greater than 1(see Figure 3),although this could change when ITER goes live.The major MFE projects listed have received a combined funding exceeding US$30 billion,while the IFE

55、 projects listed have secured approximately$7 billion in public funding.Figure 3.Project timelines and funding of public fusion energy facilities Source:Arthur D.Little,US Department of Energy,EUSource:Arthur D.Little,US Department of Energy,EUFigure 3.Project timelines and funding of public fusion

56、energy facilities Public sponsorsIFENIFLMJHiPERMFEITERJETWendelstein1983199520232015200020102034200820132003 20081997200920222018Construction started Construction completed Ignition achieved Project closedNet energy gain achieved9Spurred by scientific advances and the demand for green energy securit

57、y,interest in fusion has dramatically increased in the past two years.This momentum suggests fusion is on a secure path from the laboratory to commercialization for the first time.In 2021,Bloomberg estimated that the fusion energy market could achieve a$40 trillion valuation by 2050.4The public and

58、private sectors,along with government plans and support,are at the heart of fusion development,with large,well-respected funds and organizations increasingly scaling up their investments in scope and size.THE PUBLIC PICTURE:INCREASED GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR FUSIONMost governments have funded fusion r

59、esearch projects for many years,particularly in the US and Europe.However,activity has now shifted and accelerated,focusing on commercializing fusion technologies rather than early-stage research and including public-private partnerships,national strategies,and large funding programs.Japan published

60、 a national fusion strategy in 2023,followed by Germany,South Korea,the UK,and the US in 2024.China and Canada have not announced formal strategies but have created consortia to focus national efforts and activities.Examples of government activity include leveraging public-private collaborations,est

61、ablishing technology hubs,funding fusion infrastructure(demonstration plants and laser technology),developing and educating the workforce,and creating new supply chains.4 Dennis,Mike.“Nuclear Fusion Market Could Achieve a$40 Trillion Valuation.”Bloomberg Professional Services,18 December 2021.THE PU

62、BLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS,ALONG WITH GOVERNMENT PLANS AND SUPPORT,ARE AT THE HEART OF FUSION DEVELOPMENTSeveral countries have announced timelines that culminate in the commercialization of fusion energy in the 2040s,backed by millions of dollars in investments(see Figure 4).PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT

63、&INTERESTThe 47 fusion start-ups globally are at varying stages of maturity and funding levels(see Figure 5).More than$7.1 billion had been invested in fusion companies by the middle of 2024,with 95%coming from the private sector.Showing momentum,investment has grown by 21%since 2022.2024 saw fundin

64、g rounds closed by Zap Energy and Marvel Fusion and the foundation of a new player,Pacific Fusion,which secured Series A investment.As a demonstration of their confidence,several companies announced impressive timelines for commercial grid connection of fusion energy power plants.Given the current r

65、esearch phase and the R&D required to commercialize fusion,these could be overly ambitious,but they indicate the long-term potential of the technology.3.ACCELER ATING MOMENTUM DRIVES INTEREST IN FUSION1 0REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLEFigure 4.Announced national timelines for fusion en

66、ergy commercializationSource:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 4.Announced national timelines for fusion energy commercialization20253035404550ConceptFusion pilot plantCommercial FPPPreparationTestingCommercializationFigure 5.Overview of funding received by fusion approachSource:Arthur D.L

67、ittle,Fusion Industry Association,MergermarketSource:Arthur D.Little,Fusion Industry Association,MergermarketFigure 5.Overview of funding received by fusion approachUS&CanadaEuropeAsia&Middle EastOceania100-50010-100 500Declared total private funding(US$millions)1 1SEVERAL COMPANIES ANNOUNCED IMPRES

68、SIVE TIMELINES FOR COMMERCIAL GRID CONNECTION OF FUSION ENERGY POWER PLANTSWho is investing in fusion energy?Figure 6 shows that a range of large,well-known companies have invested in fusion energy start-ups.They span financial investors(particularly venture capital funds),strategic investors(global

69、 oil and gas majors and technology players looking to guarantee future energy security),governments(directly and via state investment funds),and individuals,particularly from the tech sector.A growing focus on IFEUnsurprisingly,the scientific breakthrough at NIF in December 2022 dramatically increas

70、ed the level of funding and government support for IFE players.Major milestones include successful funding rounds totaling more than$1 billion in 2024 for Xcimer,EX-Fusion,Marvel Fusion,Focused Energy,and Pacific Fusion,along with significant government investment in both technologies and infrastruc

71、ture.The US Department of Energy invested$42 million in 15 IFE projects,and the German governments Federal Agency for Breakthrough Innovation(SPRIND)created an investment fund dedicated to fusion infrastructure.Companies harnessing this support include Focused Energy and Marvel Fusion.Figure 6.Priva

72、te and public investors in fusion energySource:Arthur D.Little,Fusion Industry Association,MergermarketSource:Arthur D.Little,Fusion Industry Association,MergermarketFigure 6.Private and public investors in fusion energyFINANCIAL INVESTORSSTRATEGIC INVESTORSGOVERNMENTSINDIVIDUAL INVESTORS65%of finan

73、cial investors are venture investors focused primarily on early-stage investments15%of all investors are multinational enterprises and/or corporate investment armsGovernment funding is a crucial vehicle for fusion start-ups,specifically from their country of originMajor individuals from the tech sec

74、tor are invested in fusion energySam AltmanDustin MoskovitzDavid HardingJeff BezosEric SchmidtTony FlorenceHans-Peter WildReid Hoffman1 2REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLE1 3THE CHALLENGESAlthough projects are now demonstrating net energy gains,fusion has just begun the journey to commerc

75、ialization,with countries expecting facilities to begin supplying power to the grid after 2040.Delivering this will require players to overcome four challenges:technological readiness,high circulating power requirements,power plant scaling/building costs,and regulatory frameworks/public acceptance.1

76、.Technological readinessScaling from experimental facilities that produce net energy gains for short periods to commercial power plants that operate continuously is a leap.Component lifetimes,plasma control,fuel handling,and reactor durability must all be addressed.Components and technologies are cu

77、rrently at different technology readiness levels(TRLs),and all parts of the fusion power plant must be mature and proven to succeed.2.High recirculating power requirementsFusion power plants need 20%-30%of the energy they generate to run their systems,including heating and compressing the fusion fue

78、l.Thus,they must achieve a high net energy gain to be commercially viable(Qsci 15-20 for initial operations,and 50 for economically attractive output).3.Cost of scaling&building power plantsThe materials required to build fusion power plants,including walls able to withstand neutron bombardment and

79、high-power lasers,are specialized and costly.First-of-a-kind deployments will be expensive as power plants scale up from experimental projects.Delivering commercial success requires costs to come down over time while ensuring components and materials are resilient and durable.4.Regulatory frameworks

80、&public acceptanceThere are currently no regulations that govern fusion energy(in sharp contrast with fission reactors).However,the US government,through the ADVANCE Act of 2024,has already determined that fusion will not be regulated like fission but will instead be treated similarly to conventiona

81、l medical and scientific devices,such as particle accelerators.Fusions unique characteristics require the development of regulatory frameworks to guarantee safety while supporting industry growth and wide-scale deployments.As a new technology,fusion must gain public acceptance by demonstrating its s

82、afety,reliability,and benefits such as minimal environmental impact.OVERCOMING ROADBLOCKS A gradual approach can overcome the challenges outlined above in which players build capabilities and technology readiness over time,scale manufacturing capacities from one-off to batch mode,and engage with reg

83、ulators and the general public.Technology readiness:Multistage commercialization roadmapPlayers must take a step-by-step approach to improve technology readiness,overcoming technical and engineering issues over time.This includes constructing a series of demonstrator facilities aimed at lifting the

84、TRLs of critical components(see Figure 7).4.THE PATH TO COMMERCIALIZ ATION1 4REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLEThe intermediate plants will bridge the gap between small-scale experimental success and full commercial deployment while refining and developing technology,optimizing systems,an

85、d proving scalability.Continued investment in R&D,partnerships with government research bodies,and leveraging existing scientific expertise will accelerate technology maturity and readiness.Test plant types will vary based on the technology.MFE players will likely construct a single,integrated facil

86、ity that lets them test everything over time.IFE technologies can be tested separately in smaller facilities,potentially speeding up this phase.Power-efficiency requirements:Increasing efficiency&innovationTo reduce the power required by fusion systems,players must leverage insights generated in the

87、ir test plants to foster innovation and improve efficiency.This includes testing solutions to increase driver efficiency(e.g.,higher efficiency lasers or pulsed power)and improving energy recovery systems to reduce recirculating power needs.Advances in materials science can lead to better insulation

88、 and heat recovery,increasing overall efficiency.This can all be installed in test plants,studied,and used to improve performance.Cost:Establishing new supplier networksBringing down the cost of fusion power plants requires supply chains with the ability to manufacture critical components and build

89、the facilities themselves.This means public-private partnerships backed by government subsidies to offset initial capital expenditures in areas where technology is not yet commercialized.Knowledge and expertise must be ramped up in key technology areas;this will require academic research into releva

90、nt subjects and new training and recruitment efforts.Players should look to associated industries for partners(e.g.,companies with proven expertise in building nuclear plants and suppliers of lasers and optics for military applications)and engage proactively with suppliers to codevelop and test comp

91、onents.Regulation:The importance of engagementMany countries have announced national fusion strategies and committed resources to the technology.This momentum should drive the basis for regulatory frameworks and public outreach campaigns.Fusion providers should engage with regulatory bodies,and regu

92、lators from various countries should be encouraged to jointly establish clear and appropriate safety standards for fusion energy that expedite the approval process.Key questions,including the regulatory position on repurposing existing and decommissioned nuclear fission or other thermal powerplant s

93、ites to host fusion power plants,should be addressed to increase clarity for investors and utilities(e.g.,regulatory exemption of these sites would accelerate their conversion).Common regulations should enable the technology to scale,bringing down costs of equipment and construction by ensuring depl

94、oyment in multiple countries and regions.Fusion companies should conduct public outreach and education campaigns now to build a groundswell of support by highlighting fusions safety and environmental benefits,helping to increase trust and acceptance when the technology is ready for deployment.Figure

95、 7.Fusion commercialization roadmapFOAK=first of a kindSources:Arthur D.Little,BMBFFOAK=first of a kindSources:Arthur D.Little,BMBFFigure 7.Fusion commercialization roadmapINERTIAL FUSION TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ROADMAPMAGNETIC FUSION TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP1 5Successfully commercializing fusi

96、on energy requires an ecosystem of technology vendors,research/academic institutions,manufacturers,energy companies,industrial players/customers,investors,governments,and regulators.THE CORNERSTONES OF A FUSION ENERGY ECOSYSTEMBased on ADL experience,developing a successful fusion energy ecosystem r

97、equires eight interlocking elements.1.Governance&coordinationThere must be close alignment between all players in the ecosystem,especially public and private stakeholders,to ensure coherence and maximize efficiency.Countries should therefore put in place a governing and coordinating body to provide

98、a central focus.For example,Canada created a Fusion Energy Council to fill this role.Strategies should convert to clear national roadmaps,including measurable milestones and timelines to assess progress toward commercialization.National strategies are important,but at this stage of development,inter

99、national collaboration is equally vital,harmonizing efforts,avoiding duplication,and sharing knowledge across technology,processes,and regulation.2.R&D&innovationTechnological advances are a necessity to address key challenges such as plasma stability,materials,and energy extraction.Given the comple

100、xity of the technology and the cost to develop it,fusion companies cannot solve these challenges alone.They should foster partnerships with academic institutions and suppliers,working together to research and develop new solutions,especially in technologies that cut across multiple fusion approaches

101、,such as superconductors and diagnostics.Universities should deepen research into foundational topics(e.g.,plasma physics,materials,and systems)while training the future workforce via a mix of academic and vocational programs.Governments should encourage innovation by building shared R&D facilities,

102、such as testbeds suitable for diverse fusion approaches,and by funding the development of key components such as lasers.3.Investment&financingCommercializing fusion technology requires large sums.Even at this early stage,several well-established investors are involved in funding fusion players,under

103、standing the potential for high returns driven by the need for green baseload energy.However,investment must be sustained and applied across high-risk R&D,demonstration plants,and large-scale commercialization,with milestone achievement unlocking funds to ensure accountability and fast progress.Give

104、n the importance of fusion to national energy security,funding should come from a blend of public and private sources,delivered through public-private partnerships and mega-funds.In addition to their own investments,governments should provide reassurance to private investors by providing tax incenti

105、ves and guarantees,de-risking their investments.4.Regulatory&policy frameworkGovernments and regulators must create a predictable,supportive regulatory environment tailored to fusion energys unique characteristics.They should develop fusion energy legislation(distinct from nuclear fission laws)and i

106、mplement adaptative regulations that 5.KE Y STEPS TO ESTABLISHING A FUSION ECOSYSTEM1 6REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLEevolve as the technology matures while ensuring high safety standards.To support this,fusion providers should feed data to regulators to help them refine safety standar

107、ds,and investors should advocate for regulatory clarity to minimize investment risks.Regulations should align internationally to help the industry scale through common approaches that accelerate deployments and bring down costs.5.Industrial integrationFusion power provides the secure,renewable basel

108、oad supply that energy-intensive industries need to operate 24/7.Players and potential customers(whether industrial companies,data center operators,or those requiring heat)should work together to maximize collaboration.For example,they could colocate and coinvest in fusion plants near industrial hub

109、s to optimize energy use,customize existing energy solutions(e.g.,heat,electricity,or hybrid systems)for industrial applications,and invest directly in fusion players.Securing long-term power purchase agreements with industrial consumers benefits everyone by delivering supply security while demonstr

110、ating market need to investors and governments.6.Infrastructure&supply chainFusion supply chains are in their infancy and focus on supporting research facilities.The ecosystem must build a scalable supply chain and infrastructure capable of supporting commercial fusion deployments innovating and ada

111、pting existing technologies to meet fusion-specific challenges.This requires manufacturing capabilities for critical components(e.g.,superconducting magnets,high-temperature materials,and tritium breeding systems),supported by government research funding where necessary.Players must invest in securi

112、ng and recycling rare materials such as tritium,potentially by securing lithium from end-of-life electric vehicle batteries.On the energy supply side,grid operators should ensure that their infrastructure is ready to integrate high-capacity,baseload fusion plants into their networks,and legacy coal

113、and nuclear plant operators should consider converting their sites to fusion facilities.7.Public-private partnershipsDelivering ongoing public-private partnerships requires coordinated programs that leverage public resources and private expertise to accelerate development and mitigate risk.Key succe

114、ss factors include:-Aligned goals.Develop a shared vision through a national fusion roadmap with clear milestones to ensure public and private alignment.-Risk sharing.Use grants,guarantees,and milestone-based funding to mitigate financial risks and attract private investors.-Financial incentives.Cre

115、ate blended mega-funds,tax incentives,and co-investment programs to secure long-term financing.-Resource access.Provide private companies with access to public R&D facilities and support co-development of critical infrastructure.-Intellectual property frameworks.Establish standardized agreements to

116、protect private innovation while ensuring public benefit.-Regulatory certainty.Develop adaptive,fusion-specific regulations that evolve with technological maturity and align internationally.8.Talent&public engagementFusion energy needs a skilled workforce and experts to help build public trust and e

117、nthusiasm for the technology.Governments and educational institutions should establish fusion-focused academic programs and vocational training,working with technology players to ensure a workforce with the right skills.To build public trust,governments and coordinating bodies should carry out trans

118、parent communication campaigns that explain the benefits of fusion energy,being clear about risks and the path to mitigate them.To ensure positive public opinion about fusion energy,these campaigns must address societal concerns about costs,safety,and environmental impact.By adopting an ecosystem ap

119、proach,the first commercial fusion power plants could be operational by the beginning of the 2040s,delivering energy security and supporting net zero emissions targets while creating industrial capabilities and strengthening the wider economy.1 7Across the globe,there is a need for clean,safe baselo

120、ad energy to power the green transition and deliver supply security in an increasingly electrified and complex world,compensating for heat currently generated by thermal/fossil fuel sources and powering the production of green fuels such as hydrogen.Traditional renewables such as wind and solar cann

121、ot deliver the required baseload capacity,and nuclear fission faces concerns around cost,safety,and waste disposal.Fusion energy has the potential to transform the energy mix.Recent scientific breakthroughs demonstrated its potential as a viable energy source,increasing government support for accele

122、rating commercialization.Many significant investors are already involved,and well-funded fusion energy players have announced ambitious plans to develop and commercialize their offerings.To ensure success,the industry must create a collaborative ecosystem focused on delivering national strategies an

123、d driving technology,infrastructure,and supply chain development.The first fusion energy power plant will likely connect to the grid within 20 years,so now is the time to step up fusion ecosystem creation and reap the future benefits of this clean,safe,renewable energy source.“This is a pivotal mome

124、nt for the transition of fusion energy from exploratory science to commercial delivery.There has been large-scale private-sector investment across a wide range of technical options,coupled to purposeful redirection of government programs to enable public-private partnerships and further align develo

125、pment priorities.The end goal is highly compelling from a societal and financial perspective,with action now needed to align supply chains,legislators,regulators,and end-user clients to seize the opportunity.If delivered soon enough,this can make a difference for us all.”Mike Dunne,Stanford Universi

126、ty,Professor and fusion energy expertCONCLUSION:NOW IS THE TIME TO FOCUS ON FUSION1 8REPORT:UNLOCKING FUSION ENERGYARTHUR D.LITTLE1 9Arthur D.Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy,innovation and transformation in technolog

127、y-intensive and converging industries.We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build innovation capabilities and transform their organizations.Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined with exce

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