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1、 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Time forWhat they could meanfor businesses and consumers2 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.What lies in store for consumers,manufacturers,and retailers in 2025?With 2025 underway,all eyes are on U.S.tariff policies.With consumers still fati

2、gued by residual inflationary pressures,businesses will need to strike a delicate balance in managing forthcoming changes,seizing new opportunities,and mitigating subsequent impacts on pricing and supply chains.To help you navigate this dynamic environment,were delighted to collaborate with esteemed

3、 Yale economists Martha Gimbel and Ernie Tedeschi.In this forward-looking report,they explore the potential impacts of new tariffs,suggest strategies to prepare for them,and offer solutions for remaining competitive in 2025 and beyond.Courtenay Verret Vice President,NIQ Global Thought LeadershipMart

4、ha GimbelMartha Gimbel is the Executive Director of The Budget Lab at Yale.She has worked as an advisor and an economist in senior roles across government,the private sector,and philanthropy,including the White House Council of Economic Advisers,the Department of Labor,the Joint Economic Committee o

5、n Capitol Hill,Schmidt Futures,and I.She is an expert in a range of economic data,including the labor market,consumer spending,inflation,and economic growth,and in how economic and policy dynamics intersect.Ernie TedeschiErnie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at The Budget Lab at Yale and a Vis

6、iting Fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy at Georgetown University.He is also a regular Bloomberg Opinion columnist.Until March 2024,he was the Chief Economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers(CEA).Prior to CEA,Ernie was Managing Director and Head of Fiscal An

7、alysis at Evercore ISI.He has also been an economist at the U.S.Department of the Treasury and a contributor to the New York Times Upshot column.About the authors:3 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Table of ContentsClick on the contents to navigateNavigating uncertainty:Consumer spendin

8、g and price dynamics26Reading the signals:What should manufacturers and retailers be watching for?313Navigating new tariffs:Your path forward416Plan for resilience518Introduction143 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.4 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.IntroductionOne of the m

9、ost awaited policy changes of the new U.S.presidential administration has arrived:the implementation of new tariffs.From the optimization of supply chains to anticipatory purchasing,many manufacturers and retailers have already been preparing for significant shifts in trade dynamics,global costs,and

10、 procurement strategies.14 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.5 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.In this exclusive report,we address these key questions:What could potentially influence tariff policy?Which product categories will be affected?How can business leaders hedge the

11、ir bets?Who is positioned to succeed in the face of new tariffs?What are the potential business implications of new tariff policies?As new tariff policies unfold,business leaders are tasked with evaluating all potential scenarios that could help position their organizations to both mitigate risks an

12、d capitalize on new opportunities.Whether this takes the shape of global supplier diversification,inventory management,and/or pricing adjustments,executives across industries must be prepared for changes that would redefine competitive landscapes for decades.Staying informed(and agile)is key as new

13、policy frameworks take shape.What do new tariffs mean for global businesses?6 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Navigating uncertainty:Consumer spending and price dynamicsIts important to remember that the courts have largely deferred to presidents regarding their executive tariff author

14、ity.Congress could pass legislation either imposing or removing tariffs but has shown little desire to get involved in tariff policy.26 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.7 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.On the other hand,market signals may play in a role in how new policie

15、s unfold:If markets react strongly to tariff announcements,this may make it more likely that tariffs are not imposed,that they are rescinded,or that they are watered down.But market complacency may make it more likely that tariffs go through.What do we mean by this?When it comes to market reactions,

16、there is often a paradoxical dynamic at play.Take,for example,debt ceiling debates:Markets generally assume that any debt limit brinksmanship will be resolved before the debt limit is breached,so there is often very little market anxiety in the months leading up to a debt ceiling deadline.Ironically

17、,this makes it more likely that the debt limit will be breached since policymakers misinterpret the lack of market reaction as a sign that markets see no impacts from a debt ceiling breach at all.The bottom line:If markets look through recent tariff announcements or speculation about future policies

18、,that may give policymakers confidence to proceed as is with their plans.8 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Consumers can respond by:2Switching what they consume to lower-priced items3Some combination of these1Consuming less overallSince new policies are now unfolding,its hard to immedi

19、ately predict what the broader economic impact will be.Nevertheless,we can discuss the various possibilities based on what we know currently,as well as previous outcomes of past tariff policies.Shifting consumer behaviorWhen it comes to tariffs,the economic evidence is that companies generally pass

20、most or all the cost onto consumers in the form of higher prices.To give a sense of magnitudes:An analysis of recently proposed tariffs on Mexico,Canada,and China conducted by the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale found that consumers would initially,on average,see the price of their normal purchases r

21、ise 0.72-0.76%,which is the equivalent of a loss in purchasing power of about$1,250 a year per household,on average,in 2024 dollars.By substituting away from higher tariffed goods,consumers would be able to mitigate this effect only somewhat,bringing the final price effects closer to 0.6%or the equi

22、valent of a$1,000 loss a year,per household.That said,some imported goods will have no domestic substitute and some domestic goods will see their prices rise as wellmaking it a complex landscape to navigate.Ripple effects:Understanding potential economic impacts of U.S.tariff policy9 2025 Nielsen Co

23、nsumer LLC.All rights reserved.Mitigating wholesale price increasesHistorically,retailers have passed on tariff-related price increases to consumers.Today,retailers must consider how much capacity consumers will have to absorb higher price levels after years of inflation.Retailers may be pressured t

24、o absorb more of the price increases themselves or to adjust costs in some other way if consumer spending is more responsive to those hikes.We ultimately expect to see consumers consume less overall and switch away from more expensive purchases.10 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.In oth

25、er words:Non-tariffed companies will have space to increase their profit marginseven as their competitors struggle.But they should pursue this strategy with caution since consumers are entering 2025 in a state of inflation exhaustion.In many cases,there may in fact not be as much room for domestic b

26、rands to raise prices and also maintain market share.Overall,supply chains may become more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks.We saw this with baby formula in 2022,when safety issues at factories in the United States created a shortage that couldnt be mitigated by imports from abroad because of the

27、 United States regulations around baby formula.In anticipation of these challenges,some companies have already switched suppliers,moved goods into the country ahead of the tariffs,or are holding off on investments until theres more clarity.Seizing opportunities in a dynamic environmentThe impact to

28、brands will be complex,as they face challenges on a few fronts.First,if they rely on tariffed goodsdirectly or indirectlytheir costs may go up.Like retailers,they will likely need to increase prices but will have to judge the competitive state to see whether the market can absorb them.Second,if a co

29、mpany isnt directly tariffed or reliant upon tariffed goods for importsbut their competitors arethey could still choose to raise prices even though their own input costs arent affected.Shoring up supply chains11 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Managing interest ratesNavigating global r

30、ipple effectsThe Federal Reserve is in the middle of cutting rates but is growing concerned about the possibility of tenacious,last-mile inflationary pressure,as well as rising bond yields.If tariffs raise price levels and constrain consumer activity,its unclear how the Federal Reserve should respon

31、d.Should it cut rates in order to stimulate consumer spending?Or raise rates to offset the effect of tariffs on prices?Federal Reserve officials have suggested that they would not react to the price-level effects of a tariff increase,but the possibility that tariffs have broader macroeconomic implic

32、ations on demand and supply chains make the Federal Reserves ultimate response more uncertain.We will have to see what conditions on the ground require.At present,new tariffs have been announced only for Canada*,Mexico*,and China.If universal tariffs are ultimately applied,countries like Vietnam,Mal

33、aysia,Thailand,Singapore,and Korea will likely also experience bigger ripple effects.Retaliation is also likely,making trade dynamics more complex.Finally,we would expect tariffs to increase the strength of the dollarwhich,while posing advantages for some businesses,would also make U.S.imports less

34、competitive overseas.*At the time of this publication,the Trump administration has announced it will pause new tariffs on Mexico and Canada until early March.12 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.The potential impact of tariffs on the prices of consumer staple goods continues to be a foca

35、l point of discussion.While not subject to tariffs,eggs are a staple product thats susceptible to price and supply shocksmost notably in recent years due to inflationary pressures and avian flu.What can consumer behavior in the face of these factors tell us about the potential impact of tariffs?In r

36、eviewing data from past price increases,we found several items of note:As prices increased,consumers didnt adjust their frequency of purchase or total unit purchasesan expected outcome,since eggs are still a relatively cheap staple good.Private label volume share held steady at 71%as its price gap w

37、ith national brands decreased from 44%to 29%.Its volume share increased modestly,to 74%,once supply stabilized and the price gap widened againindicating that consumer affinity for and migration to private label may depend on the significance of the price shock.Total consumption of food products edge

38、d down as egg prices increased.While broader food inflation was also at play,its possible that consumers made fewer grocery purchases overall to afford the increased prices of eggs.In other words:The businesses that took a hit when egg prices increased were likely not the egg producers,but those who

39、 sold goods that consumers had to consume less of to afford the eggs.NIQ total U.S.x AOC 010,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,00070,000,00080,000,000$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00$5.50$6.00$6.50$7.00Avg Unit PriceBase Unit PriceUnits2022202120231 w/e 12/14/19 1 w/e 03/07/20

40、 1 w/e 05/08/20 1 w/e 08/22/20 1 w/e 11/14/20 1 w/e 02/06/21 1 w/e 05/01/21 1 w/e 07/24/21 1 w/e 10/16/21 1 w/e 01/08/22 1 w/e 04/02/22 1 w/e 06/25/22 1 w/e 09/17/22 1 w/e 12/10/22 1 w/e 03/04/23 1 w/e 05/27/23 1 w/e 08/19/23 1 w/e 11/11/23 1 w/e 02/03/24 1 w/e 04/27/24 1 w/e 07/20/24 1 w/e 10/12/24

41、 Chicken Egg categorySource:NielsenIQ Retail Measurement|US Syndicated Copyright 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved 01,000,000,0002,000,000,0003,000,000,0004,000,000,0005,000,000,0006,000,000,0007,000,000,000$2.50$2.75$3.00$3.25$3.50$3.75$4.00Avg Unit PriceBase Unit PriceUnits20221 w/e 12

42、/14/19 1 w/e 04/11/20 1 w/e 08/08/20 1 w/e 12/05/20 1 w/e 04/03/21 1 w/e 07/31/21 1 w/e 11/27/21 1 w/e 03/26/22 1 w/e 07/23/22 1 w/e 11/19/22 1 w/e 03/18/23 1 w/e 07/15/23 1 w/e 11/11/23 1 w/e 03/09/24 1 w/e 07/06/24 1 w/e 11/02/24 Source:NielsenIQ Retail Measurement|US Syndicated Copyright 2024 Nie

43、lsen Consumer LLC.All Rights ReservedSum of food departmentsNIQ total US x AOC Key takeawaysShould tariff-driven price increases take effect,its possible that“need-to-have”goods will see their sales unchanged.As NIQs Consumer Outlook:Guide to 2025 noted,many consumers have already become more intent

44、ional in their purchasing due to inflationary pressures,with 32%of global respondents stating they are managing expenses by focusing only on essentials.Our findings suggest that those who are selling“nice to haves”in the same category of a tariffed good that is a“need to have”may see sales of their

45、goods go downeven if they themselves are not tariffed.Consumer behavior,particularly for discretionary goods,can be difficult to gauge in the face of price increases.While more than half of the global respondents in NIQs Consumer Outlook survey also stated they would continue to spend a little extra

46、 for purchases that made for a special moment in the day or week,the compounding effects of inflation are still ever present,and it would appear that consumer tolerance for price increases does have limits.Those in discretionary categories that are facing tariffs should be prepared for a drop in con

47、sumer demandespecially if efforts arent made to soften subsequent price shocks.On the other hand,those who sell goods that could substitute for tariffed discretionary goods may be able to take advantage of this momentparticularly if they lean into a value proposition of affordable indulgence.Finally

48、:The pass-through of tariffs to retail prices may not be straightforward and may take some time.Businesses will need to consider ongoing adjustments to a tariffed environment for some time to come,leaning into consumer data to understand emerging trends and overall market health.What can the price o

49、f eggs tell us about the potential impact of tariffs?13 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Reading the signals:What should manufacturers and retailers be watching for?Given the unfolding nature of new tariff policies,what should businesses be looking out for at this time?There are a few p

50、laces in the data to look for direction.313 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.14 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.The first is consumer financial health and their response to any additional price increases.In NIQs Consumer Outlook:Guide to 2025,only 5%of global consumers sta

51、ted they had not changed their shopping habits in response to current economic conditions like inflation.New shopping strategies included stocking up on deals(30%),switching to lower-priced items(36%),and even focusing only on essential purchases(33%).As it pertains to consumer durables,consumer sen

52、timent data from the widely followed University of Michigan(U of M)survey suggests that consumers see conditions for buying household durables deteriorating in 2025 due to the risk of tariffs.Some may have pulled forward major purchases if they could:22%of respondents to the December 2024 U of M sur

53、vey mentioned that buying durables now would allow them to avoid future price increasesthe highest proportion since 1990.15 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Staying attuned to the competitive environment will also be key.Brands that are domestically based but have international competit

54、ors will likely do well under tariffs as long as they dont rely on foreign inputs.Tariffs will amount to a forced price increase on their competitors.The domestic brands could therefore have space to raise prices.In 2018,for example,domestic washing machine brands were able to raise prices even thou

55、gh they werent affected by the tariffs on Chinese washing machines.However,margin room will ultimately be decided by the competitive environment and the health of the consumer.Highly competitive industries with many brands may still find little room to gain on margin.On the other hand,sectors that e

56、xport(e.g.,chemicals,electronics)may find less room to competitively maneuver if a strong dollar hurts the ability of other countries to buy their goods.Additionally,exporting sectors in politically salient industries should be particularly wary of retaliation:Past examples of retaliatory tariffs in

57、clude dairy and bourbon,while orange juice,whiskey,and peanut butter have been recently earmarked.Other targets could include petroleum,oil,maize and some machinery.The bottom line:Industries that produce domestically shouldnt assume that they wont be affected by a broader trade war.If you do busine

58、ss outside the United States(whether buying or selling),this could impact your business,and staying attuned to shifting competitor and market dynamics is essential.Finally:If tariffs remain limited to select countries(at the time of this publication,this remains to be seen),then those that are untar

59、iffed will be at an advantage as companies move economic activity there.However,some companies have already had to move production in response to previously imposed tariffs and may not be able to afford to move production again.The American consumer has shown surprising resilience in the face of pri

60、ce increases before,but there may be limits to what theyll absorb.Watching consumer spendingparticularly across income distributionwill be an important place to see if theres weakening demand.16 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Navigating new tariffs:In addition to staying attuned to co

61、nsumer signals,manufacturers and retailers should lean on strategic best practices for growing market share while softening price shocks and providing consumer value.4Your path forwardConsider your capacity for price absorption.As weve already noted,when it comes to price increases,many consumers re

62、main fatigued by inflation.If your business is affected by tariffs,determine which costs your organization can feasibly absorb before passing increases on to the consumer.The same reasoning applies even to organizations that are not affected by tariffs but have competitors that are:Your competitive

63、advantage may lie in keeping pricing steady.Ensure promotional structures are on point.If price adjustments are necessary,then effective promotions can go a long way in easing consumer pressures and driving brand loyalty.But keep in mind that a successful promotional strategy shouldnt only drive val

64、ue to the shopper but also deliver incremental volume.Ensure your promotions strike a balance between frequency and offer mechanics,regularly analyzing their significance with shoppers,their ability to drive sales,and their sustainability as a business practice.16 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All right

65、s reserved.17 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Offer the right brand,in the right pack,at the right price.Recalibrate your value proposition and brand messaging.The last few years have taught us that a brands pricing power can change in a dynamic environment,and that value doesnt always

66、 signal the“least expensive”option for consumers.Our studies have found that manufacturers who make both direct and indirect pricing changeslike optimizing SKU mix and price pack architecturecan have 8%better revenue performance than price increases alone.Challenge consumption moments with new forma

67、ts and unexpected occasions to drive new opportunities along the consumer value spectrum.Nearly two-thirds(62%)of global consumers say they would be willing to switch brands for a lower price.With new tariff policies poised to potentially exacerbate price fatigue,brands should rightly be concerned a

68、bout defending their market share.But keep in mind the consumer say-do gap:Value is not rational;its relative.It comprises memories and associations,emotional affinity and functional qualities,as well as absolute price.It can vary according to shopping trip,category and shelf alternatives,and even b

69、y time and location.Revisit your value proposition through the lens of both conscious and non-conscious driversand ensure your brand messaging provides the context consumers need to choose you.Fulfill emerging consumer needs through innovation and renovation.While new tariffs might impose new market

70、place pressures,they will also present new opportunities to close emerging marketplace gaps.As policies roll out,its important to take inventory of your current product portfolio and stay apprised of evolving consumer and category drivers.NIQ research shows that companies that grow innovation sales

71、are two times more likely to grow their overall salesmeaning that continued innovation and renovation can be critical levers for gaining market share.17 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.18 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.Plan for resilience5In an increasingly complex trade

72、 environment,leverage data and analytics to make informed decisions that minimize risk and empower swift adaptation.Supply&DistributionAssure product availability,inform production planning,and optimize inventoryBrand&MediaStrengthen your value proposition and maximize your marketing impactAssortmen

73、t&Shelf ExecutionDiversify and optimize your SKUsPricing&PromotionMaximize profit and generate ROI on promotional activity InnovationSupercharge growth by meeting consumers emerging needsConsumer Behavior&InsightsMarket MeasurementStay attuned to market performance,trends,and consumer health and buy

74、ing behavior18 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.19 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.About NIQ NielsenIQ(NIQ)is the worlds leading consumer intelligence company,delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth.NIQ co

75、mbined with GfK in 2023,bringing together the two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach.Today NIQ has operations in more than 95 countries covering 97%of GDP.With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insightsdelivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platformsNIQ delivers the Full View.For more information,visit NIQ.com 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All rights reserved.NIQs Global Thought Leadership team values your feedback.Complete this brief survey to let us know what you think of this content.