《國際能源署（IEA）：2025印度天然氣市場報告：2030年展望（英文版）（69頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《國際能源署（IEA）：2025印度天然氣市場報告：2030年展望（英文版）（69頁）.pdf（69頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、India Gas Market ReportOutlook to 2030The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies

2、 that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32 Member countries,13 Association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international fron

3、tiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA Member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech Republic DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherl

4、andsNew Zealand NorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic SpainSweden Switzerland Republic of Trkiye United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA Association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndia Indonesia Kenya Morocco Senegal Singapore South Africa

5、Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYIndia Gas Market Report Abstract Outlook to 2030 PAGE|3 Abstract Indias dynamic economic growth,coupled with rapid urbanisation and industrialisation,is set to significantly transform its entire energy market,including natural gas,in the coming years.This re

6、port,based on extensive dialogues with key Indian stakeholders,provides the International Energy Agencys(IEA)comprehensive analysis of this evolving landscape.As India aims to transition towards a gas-based economy and reduce its dependence on oil imports,the report offers a detailed forecast and st

7、rategic insights through 2030.The analysis reveals an anticipated transformative shift in the natural gas landscape,driven by favourable global market conditions,expansion of gas pipeline infrastructure and improvements in domestic production.These factors are expected to support a strong increase i

8、n natural gas consumption.Strategic opportunities and policy interventions could further boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted trajectory by 2030.The report explores the potential for LNG use in heavy-duty transport,greater utilisation of the power generation fleet,and accelerated infrastructu

9、re development in the residential,commercial,and transport sectors to drive additional demand.It also examines the untapped potential of Indias compressed biogas(CBG)production and the expected growth in LNG imports to bridge the gap left by marginal domestic production increases.Additionally,the re

10、port outlines policy options for the Indian government to enhance the role of natural gas within the national energy mix in the coming years.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Acknowledgements Outlook to 2030 PAGE|4 Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This special report on Indias gas marke

11、t was prepared by the Gas,Coal and Power Markets Division(GCP)of the International Energy Agencys(IEA)Directorate of Energy Markets and Security(EMS).The study was designed and directed by Dennis Hesseling,Head of the GCP,who also co-ordinated the production of the report.The work greatly benefitted

12、 from strategic guidance by Keisuke Sadamori,Director of EMS.Akos Losz,Lead Gas Market Analyst,and Carole Etienne,Gas Market Analyst,led the analysis and were the principal authors of the report,with significant assistance from Omkar Kajrolkar.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by senior m

13、anagement and colleagues within the IEA,including Ana Alcalde-Bascones,Eren Cam,Ilias Atigui,Toril Bosoni,Marc Casanovas-Simo,Tim Gould,Ciaran Healy,Hugh Hopewell,Nicholas Howarth,Kavita Jadhav,Martin Kueppers,David Martin,Apostolos Petropoulos,Yutaka Shirakawa,Siddharth Singh,Anthony Vautrin and Pe

14、ter Zeniewski.Special thanks to Nicolas Coent,from the Energy Data Centre team,for his expert assistance with the data.Alay Patel acted as a research consultant and played a key role in the preparation of the Report,especially during the mission in Delhi.All data and projections are the work of the

15、IEA,unless otherwise noted.The IEAs Communications and Digital Office(CDO)provided production support,and particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen,Head of CDO,and his team:Poeli Bojorquez,Astrid Dumond,Liv Gaunt,Josh Hammond and Clara Vallois.The authors would also like to thank Elspeth Thomson for edi

16、ting the report.Officials from the MoPNG,the PPAC and other government entities,as well as oil and gas companies,provided valuable input.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Table of contents Outlook to 2030 PAGE|5 Table of contents Executive summary.6 Chapter 1.Introduction.8 Global gas market tre

17、nds.8 Energy use and gas market trends in India.9 Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure.14 LNG infrastructure.14 Transmission pipelines.16 City gas distribution(CGD).17 Underground gas storage.19 Regulatory issues.20 Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India.22 The allocation mechanism for domestic gas.24 The role of t

18、he Indian Gas Exchange(IGX)in gas price discovery.25 Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook.29 Sectoral trends.29 Chapter 5.Domestic gas production outlook.44 Natural gas production through 2030.44 Compressed biogas supply outlook.47 Chapter 6.LNG demand outlook to 2030.53 Recent trends in LNG imports.53 Outl

19、ook for LNG demand through 2030.55 Chapter 7.Policy options to increase the role of gas in Indias energy mix.57 Annex.65 Abbreviations and acronyms.65 Glossary.67 IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Executive summary Outlook to 2030 PAGE|6 Executive summary The history of gas in Indias energy syst

20、em has a mixed track record,with periods of rapid expansion followed by episodes of decline.After steep demand declines in the wake of the 2022 global energy crisis,total gas consumption in India in 2023 was only slightly higher than in 2011.However,this report grounded in comprehensive data analysi

21、s and extensive consultations with Indian stakeholders argues that gas use in India has reached an inflection point and is on course to increase substantially between 2023 and 2030.This growth is driven by three major trends:the rapid expansion of Indias gas infrastructure,a rebound in domestic natu

22、ral gas production(which is generally cheaper than imported LNG)and an expected easing of global gas market conditions.Supportive government policies have further paved the way for increased natural gas consumption through 2030.Indias natural gas consumption is forecast to increase by nearly 60%by 2

23、030,driven by robust growth in city gas distribution,industrial demand,and power generation.Since 2000,Indias natural gas consumption more than doubled,exceeding 65 bcm/yr by 2023.Between 2023 and 2030,gas consumption is projected to grow by nearly 60%,reaching 103 bcm/yr by the end of the forecast

24、period,bringing India roughly on par with the current gas consumption of Saudi Arabia.The city gas distribution(CGD)sector is expected to lead this growth,supported by the rapid expansion of compressed natural gas(CNG)infrastructure and the cost advantage of gas over liquid fuels for small industria

25、l users.Heavy industrial and manufacturing sectors,such as iron and steel production,are also driving demand,collectively adding around 15 bcm/yr during this period.Gas use in oil refining is expected to increase by more than 4 bcm/yr as more refineries get connected to the grid.Growth prospects in

26、the petrochemical and fertiliser sectors remain more limited,as no new gas-based capacity additions are foreseen within our forecast horizon.Gas demand in the power generation sector is projected to reach nearly 15 bcm/yr by 2030,driven by a recovery in large gas-fired power plants and the rapid exp

27、ansion of gas use in captive power plants.Targeted strategies and policy interventions could boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted trajectory to around 120 bcm/yr by 2030,close to the current gas consumption of the entire continent of South America.Incremental growth in this accelerated demand

28、 trajectory,which requires additional policy support in each category,could come from higher utilisation of Indias stranded gas-fired power plants,faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport,and more rapid expansion of Indias CGD infrastructure,combined with the replacement of LPG with natural ga

29、s in the commercial segment.In total,this accelerated uptake of natural gas across the residential,commercial,transport and electricity sectors could add another 15 bcm/yr of gas demand by 2030.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Executive summary Outlook to 2030 PAGE|7 Indias domestic gas product

30、ion,which met 50%of demand in 2023,is expected to grow only moderately through 2030.After nearly a decade of decline and stagnation,Indias domestic gas production has seen a resurgence.In 2023,total net gas production reached 35 bcm,meeting about half of the countrys gas demand.This growth is primar

31、ily driven by the deepwater fields in the Krishna-Godavari basin,which now account for nearly 25%of Indias total production.Between 2024 and 2030,only moderate growth is expected,supported by increasing onshore production from coal bed methane(CBM)and discovered small fields(DSF).Offshore production

32、 will also rise with additional supplies from ONGCs deepwater KG-D5 project.However,overall growth will be tempered by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGCs Mumbai offshore fields,leaving production in 2030(at just under 38 bcm)only around 8%h

33、igher than 2023 levels.Indias compressed biogas(CBG)production potential remains largely untapped,with annual output expected to reach 0.8 bcm by 2030.Indias CBG potential is estimated at approximately 87 bcm/yr,while the installed capacity currently represents less than 1%of this potential.The gove

34、rnment has introduced several policy initiatives to support CBG production.As of September 2024,approximately 90 CBG plants were operational,with an additional 508 plants under various stages of development.By 2030,CBG production could reach 0.8 bcm/yr.However,challenges such as land availability,li

35、mited offtake,seasonal biomass supply and inadequate logistics continue to hinder the consistent availability and commercial viability of CBG production.The government has provided financial support for pipeline connectivity for CBG plants,biomass aggregation machinery,and byproducts offtake to addr

36、ess these challenges and build a robust CBG ecosystem by 2030.Indias LNG imports are set to more than double between 2023 and 2030,driven by steady demand growth and a much slower rise in domestic production.Between 2013 and 2023,Indias LNG imports increased by 70%,and reached 36 bcm in 2024,matchin

37、g the previous record set in 2020 and cementing the countrys position as the fourth-largest LNG importer globally.Looking ahead,Indias LNG demand is projected to grow steadily,reaching 64 bcm/yr by 2030.This represents an annual average growth rate of 11%for the 2023-2030 period,twice the average ra

38、te observed in the previous ten years.As domestic natural gas production is projected to see only marginal growth until 2030,LNG imports are expected to meet an increasing share of Indias future gas demand.The rapid rise in LNG requirements necessitates additional LNG import capacity in the second h

39、alf of the decade.The gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen significantly after 2028,leaving India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Ch

40、apter 1.Introduction Outlook to 2030 PAGE|8 Chapter 1.Introduction Global gas market trends The global gas and LNG markets have experienced significant turbulence in recent years,driven by geopolitical events and shifting supply-demand dynamics.The 2022 gas supply shock,combined with a surge in post

41、-pandemic energy demand in Europe and Asia,created a perfect storm that strained the global gas market balance.As a result,gas prices spiked,leading to significant demand declines,a reconfiguration of global LNG flows,and a reassessment of energy security policies worldwide.Following the gas supply

42、shock of 2022,natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2023,driven by timely policy interventions,market adjustments in response to high gas prices and favourable weather conditions.Throughout 2023,market fundamentals continued to ease,leading to a fragile stabilisation in supply a

43、nd demand dynamics.By the first quarter of 2024,gas prices had fallen nearly 50%below the average in 2021,the last year before the 2022 energy crisis,reflecting a more balanced market environment despite limited LNG supply growth and shipping constraints via the Panama Canal and the Red Sea.This tre

44、nd continued throughout the first half of 2024,although European and Asian spot prices remained well above their historical averages observed in the 2016-2020 period.Tighter market fundamentals,combined with perceived supply risks amid geopolitical tensions,drove up natural gas prices again in the s

45、econd half of the year.In 2024,natural gas demand grew by an estimated 2.8%y-o-y(or 115 bcm);Asia,led by China and India,accounted for nearly 45%of the incremental demand.From a sectoral perspective,global gas consumption growth was largely supported by industry and energy own use,accounting for abo

46、ut 45%of the incremental gas demand during the year.Meanwhile,global LNG supply saw only modest growth in 2024,increasing by less than 2.5%.Looking ahead,the substantial increase in LNG production and export capacity,mainly from Qatar and the USA,with close to 270 bcm/yr of new capacity coming onlin

47、e between 2024 and 2030,is poised to reshape the market.This surge in LNG supply is anticipated to outpace demand growth,resulting in more comfortable supply and demand balances and easing market tensions.However,regional price disparities may persist due to varying demand dynamics and infrastructur

48、e constraints.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 1.Introduction Outlook to 2030 PAGE|9 Energy use and gas market trends in India Driven by rapid economic development,urbanisation and industrialisation,India,the worlds most populous country,is experiencing significant growth in energy dema

49、nd.Primary energy consumption increased 2.4-fold between 2000 and 2022,with about 70%of demand still being met by coal and oil.From a greenhouse gas(GHG)and local air pollution perspective,this increased energy consumption poses significant challenges.Indias energy-related GHG emissions have grown r

50、apidly since the turn of the century,making it the worlds third largest GHG emitter.However,India has committed to clear climate goals,including achieving net zero emissions by 2070.As part of its updated Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,India has committed to reduc

51、ing the carbon intensity of its GDP by 45%by 2030 compared to 2005 levels and cutting total projected carbon emissions by one billion metric tons over the same period.These efforts are part of Indias broader strategy to transition to a low-carbon economy,which includes increasing renewable energy ca

52、pacity,enhancing energy efficiency and promoting sustainable urbanisation.Despite these commitments,balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability remains an ongoing challenge for India,as it is for any other country committed to the energy transition.Air quality remains a significant c

53、oncern,with many regions experiencing levels of pollution that exceed national and international standards.The government has implemented various measures to combat air pollution,such as enforcing stricter emissions standards in industry and the transport sector,promoting sustainable agricultural pr

54、actices,transitioning to cleaner energy sources,regulating construction and demolition activities,and enhancing waste management practices.However,the effectiveness of these measures is often hampered by enforcement challenges and the sheer scale of the pollution problem.Improving air quality is cru

55、cial for public health and aligns with Indias broader environmental and climate goals.Natural gas can play an important role in the early stages of Indias extended decarbonisation journey,as it can simultaneously contribute to meeting rapidly rising energy demand,reducing local air pollution and mit

56、igating GHG emissions in Indias coal-dominated energy system.The Government of India has set a highly ambitious target to increase the share of natural gas in the countrys energy mix to 15%by 2030,up from the 2022 level IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 1.Introduction Outlook to 2030 PAG

57、E|10 of 6.4%.1 This target provides a clear growth signal for Indias natural gas sector and has set the direction for a range of supportive government policies aimed at increasing gas use in Indias energy economy.Such policies have focused on expanding natural gas infrastructure,including transport

58、and distribution pipelines,compressed natural gas and LNG filling stations,and LNG import terminals to improve access to natural gas across the country.Targeted policies and incentives have also been introduced or proposed to encourage natural gas adoption in specific sectors,including industry,powe

59、r generation and transportation.Meanwhile,market reforms have taken cautious steps towards greater gas market competition and market-based pricing,trying to strike a delicate balance between incentivising greater domestic production and ensuring affordable natural gas supply to Indias price-sensitiv

60、e consumers.Inter-fuel competition is particularly strong in India,with natural gas vying against coal,oil and renewables in several gas-consuming sectors.This means that even small changes in global gas prices can significantly impact domestic consumption patterns.This price sensitivity underscores

61、 the need for competitive pricing to enable natural gas adoption.The push for a greater share of natural gas is a key part of Indias strategy to reduce its reliance on coal and oil,which currently dominate the energy landscape,and to mitigate GHG emissions in line with the countrys 2070 net zero tar

62、get.Greater natural gas use also supports the integration of Indias rapidly expanding wind and solar capacities,further reinforcing the role of gas in the countrys energy transition.However,achieving a 15%primary energy share for natural gas by 2030(equivalent to 500 mcm/d or 182.5 bcm/yr,according

63、to government estimates),appears challenging.Despite rapid energy demand growth,Indias natural gas consumption has not kept pace.While primary energy consumption expanded by nearly 60%between 2010 and 2022,natural gas uptake remained slow,as Indias development pathway prioritised affordability and e

64、nergy security.As a result,natural gas accounted for about 6.4%of Indias primary energy consumption in 2022.2 1 This share is calculated based on an adjusted IEA primary energy balance,which follows the methodology of Indias Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation and excludes biofuels a

65、nd waste from primary energy supply.In contrast,the IEAs standard methodology,which follows the United Nations International Recommendations for Energy Statistics,includes biofuels and waste in the primary energy balance.As a result,the IEAs World Energy Balances dataset reports a lower 5.1%share fo

66、r gas in Indias primary energy mix in 2022.2 The corresponding share is 5.1%when biofuels and waste are also included in the primary energy balance.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 1.Introduction Outlook to 2030 PAGE|11 Share of natural gas in primary energy mix in India,1971-2022 IEA.C

67、C BY 4.0 Note:Total energy supply excludes biofuels and waste in this graph.Source:IEA(2024),World Energy Balances(database).Several factors have contributed to this shortfall.First,the high cost of imported LNG has limited the competitiveness of natural gas compared to cheaper alternatives,especial

68、ly coal.Second,infrastructure development,including pipelines and LNG terminals,has not kept pace with potential demand.The resulting bottlenecks and connectivity issues have constrained the adoption of natural gas in sectors where the economic and environmental case for switching to gas have been c

69、ompelling,such as transportation,small industrial and commercial applications,and refining.Moreover,while the regulatory environment and policy support have improved,challenges in implementation and enforcement persist.The industrial and power sectors,which are critical to increasing natural gas con

70、sumption,continue to rely heavily on coal due to its lower cost and established supply chains,which is further exacerbated by uneven and generally higher taxation on natural gas relative to competing fuels.To achieve Indias goal of becoming a gas-based economy and reducing its dependence on oil impo

71、rts,strengthening the regulatory framework and ensuring consistent policy support will be essential.The governments commitment to these efforts will be pivotal in driving growth in the natural gas sector and reducing energy-related GHG emissions by replacing coal and liquid fuels with gas in the ene

72、rgy mix.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%197119741977198019831986198919921995199820012004200720102013201620192022%of total primary energy supplyIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 1.Introduction Outlook to 2030 PAGE|12 Gujarat:A model for Indias gas-based economy Gujarat was an early adopter of natural gas

73、 in India and the states transition to a gas-based economy has served as an inspiration(and a potential template)for the Indian governments goal of developing a gas-based economy nationwide.With natural gas accounting for 25%of its energy mix,the case of Gujarat demonstrates that with the right comb

74、ination of supply availability,infrastructure development and policy support,gas can play a significant role in the energy economy in India.Gujarats experience with natural gas adoption is particularly significant in the context of the Government of Indias target to increase the share of natural gas

75、 in the national energy mix to 15%by 2030.Gujarats natural gas market development began in 1972 with the Vadodara Municipal Corporation initiating local gas distribution.This early start was bolstered by the establishment of the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation(GSPC)in 1979,which played a crucial

76、 role in developing the states gas infrastructure.The formation of GSPCs subsidiary,Gujarat Gas Limited(GGL),in 1980 further accelerated the growth of the natural gas market by focusing on city gas distribution.All these entities are state-owned,contributing significantly to the development of the r

77、egions gas supply chain.One of the key factors behind Gujarats wider natural gas use is its extensive gas infrastructure.The states proximity to Qatar,Indias first and biggest LNG supplier,and the presence of several onshore and offshore legacy gas fields in and around Gujarat created favourable con

78、ditions for downstream gas and LNG infrastructure investments.The state boasts a well-developed network of LNG terminals,including Indias first operational terminal at Dahej,commissioned in 2004,and subsequent terminals at Hazira and Mundra.These facilities,supported by a comprehensive pipeline netw

79、ork managed by Gujarat State Petronet Limited(GSPL),ensure reliable supply and distribution of natural gas across the state.Gujarats LNG terminals account for about 60%(38 bcm/yr)of Indias total LNG import capacity.The Dahej terminal alone has a capacity of 24 bcm/yr.The state has the most extensive

80、 gas pipeline network in India,with over 5 850 km of main lines,accounting for 25%of the countrys pipelines.The state also leads the country in the number of CNG stations(accounting for over 1 000 or 14%of Indias total)and piped natural gas(PNG)connections for domestic,commercial,and industrial use(

81、totalling close to 3.5 million or 25%of the national total).Gujarats state-level policies have also played a crucial role in promoting natural gas.The Gujarat Gas(Regulation of Transmission,Supply and Distribution)Act of 2001 and the LNG Terminal Policy of 2012 created a favourable environment for i

82、nvestment and development.These policies facilitated the establishment of gas-based industries and promoted the use of natural gas in various sectors,including power generation,industrial applications,and city gas distribution.The creation of Special Economic Zones(SEZs)in Gujarat also played a sign

83、ificant role in IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 1.Introduction Outlook to 2030 PAGE|13 attracting investments and promoting industrial growth.SEZs offer economic incentives and infrastructure support,making them attractive destinations for businesses.This move has further bolstered Guj

84、arats position as a leading natural gas-based state within the Indian economy.Gujarats state entities,including GSPC,GSPL,GGL and Sabarmati Gas Limited(SGL),were established decades ago and have progressively developed an extensive,integrated gas infrastructure.Additionally,Gujarat adopted a collabo

85、rative approach with state-owned companies like Petronet LNG and international companies like Shell and BG Group(later acquired by Shell),fostering investments to develop and expand this infrastructure.With nearly 25%of Indias total consumption,Gujarats demand for natural gas is spread across many s

86、ectors.The industrial sector,including manufacturing and various other industrial applications,consumes more than 40%of Indias total industrial gas consumption.The city gas distribution(CGD)sector,which includes residential and commercial users,accounts for 33%of Indias total CGD consumption.The cum

87、ulative installed capacity of gas-fired power plants in the state stands at 6 600 MW,representing 26%of Indias total installed capacity of gas-fired power plants.This diverse demand was created and sustained because consumers had access to a well-developed infrastructure that ensured a reliable supp

88、ly of natural gas.Key indicators for Gujarat state compared to all of India,2023 Source:IEA analysis based on data from PPAC Oil&Gas Snapshot of States,Volume:2024-25,Edition:II(April-September).25 38 15.73.5 5 850 6.6 1 000 306565.513.823 500257 4000%20%40%60%80%100%LNG imports(bcm)LNG importcapaci

89、ty(bcm/y)Gas demand(bcm)DomesticPNGconnections(in millions)Natural gaspipelines(km)Gas-firedgenerationcapacity(GW)CNG stationsGujaratRest of IndiaIndicators for total IndiaIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|14 Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure While su

90、ccessive policy documents have targeted a more prominent role for gas in Indias energy economy,infrastructure bottlenecks and downstream connectivity issues presented key obstacles to materially increasing the share of gas in the energy mix over the past decade.The buildout of Indias domestic gas in

91、frastructure has accelerated markedly in recent years,but gaps remain between government goals and progress in key areas,such as the rollout of CGD networks to residential users.The regulatory framework for Indias gas infrastructure could also be improved further with additional gas market reforms.L

92、NG infrastructure Indias LNG regasification capacity has expanded by 90%over the last decade,with four new terminals coming online since 2019.At the end of 2024,the country had a total nameplate regasification capacity of 65 bcm/yr spread across seven terminals in Dahej,Hazira,Dabhol,Kochi,Ennore,Mu

93、ndra,and Dhamra.A new terminal in Chhara with an additional 6.8 bcm/yr nameplate capacity is expected to enter commercial service in 2025.Utilisation rates of LNG import terminals in India,2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The Dabhol terminal utilisation rate is calculated on the basis of its effective capaci

94、ty of 4 bcm/yr(instead of 6.8 bcm/yr),due to the lack of breakwater facilities,which makes the terminal inoperable during the monsoon season.Source:IEA analysis based on data from ICIS LNG Edge.0%20%40%60%80%100%DahejDabholDhamraHaziraMundraEnnoreKochiUtilisation rateIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market R

95、eport Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|15 Utilisation rates vary by terminal,with the Dahej terminal operating at full capacity,while newer terminals like Dhamra are still ramping up operations.This difference in utilisation rates stems not only from the varying stages of operationa

96、l maturity,but also from the development of connecting infrastructure.Established terminals like Dahej benefit from well-developed pipeline networks and stable demand,whereas newer facilities are still integrating into the national grid and building their customer base.The Kochi terminal in Kerala o

97、n the southwestern coast of India,for example,has been operating significantly below its nameplate capacity due to insufficient end-use demand connected to the facility.Meanwhile,the effective capacity of the Dabhol terminal in Maharashtra on the western coast of India has been limited to about 60%o

98、f its nameplate capacity due to the absence of breakwater facilities,restricting operations during the monsoon season.To meet projected demand,India plans to further expand its LNG infrastructure.Several new terminals are under construction or in the planning stages,with the potential to add nearly

99、40 bcm/yr of regasification capacity by 2030.This expansion is expected to align with the projected increase in LNG demand,ensuring that infrastructure constraints do not hinder growth.LNG import terminals in India Terminal Status Nameplate capacity(bcm/yr)Storage capacity(m3 LNG)Start-up year State

100、 Dahej Operational 23.8 1 104 000 2004 Gujarat Hazira Operational 7.1 320 000 2005 Gujarat Dabhol Operational 6.8 480 000 2013 Maharashtra Kochi Operational 6.8 310 000 2013 Kerala Ennore Operational 6.8 360 000 2019 Tamil Nadu Mundra Operational 6.8 320 000 2020 Gujarat Dhamra Operational 6.8 360 0

101、00 2023 Odisha Total operational 65 3 254 000 Chhara Commissioning in progress 6.8 200 000 Expected in 2025 Gujarat Jafrabad FSRU Under construction 6.8 180 000 Expected in 2025 Gujarat Jaigarh FSRU Under construction 5.4 145 000 Expected in 2026 Maharashtra Total under construction 19 525 000 Gopal

102、pur Planned 5.4 Odisha Dahej expansion Planned 6.8 Gujarat Dabhol expansion Planned 6.8 Maharashtra Total planned 19 Note:The effective capacity of the Dabhol terminal is limited to 4 bcm/yr due to the absence of breakwater facilities,which makes the terminal inoperable during the monsoon season.The

103、 Kochi terminal has been operating significantly below its nameplate capacity due to insufficient end-use demand linked to the facility.Source:IEA analysis based on data from ICIS LNG Edge,IGU,GIIGNL and PNGRB.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|16

104、 Transmission pipelines Indias gas transmission pipeline network is a critical component of its energy infrastructure,facilitating the efficient and safe transport of natural gas across the country.As of mid-2024,India had approximately 23 500 km of operational natural gas pipelines,with plans to ex

105、pand this network significantly.The PNGRB(Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board)has approved approximately 33 600 km of natural gas pipeline network across the country to create a national gas grid,under the“One Nation,One Gas Grid”initiative.With the completion of all under construction pipeli

106、nes,including tie-in lines,dedicated pipeline projects,and sub-transmission lines,the total length of Indias high-pressure gas grid is expected to reach 35 200 km towards the end of the decade.Historically,the majority of Indias domestic gas pipeline network has been developed and operated by state-

107、owned entities.The Indian government has made notable steps towards liberalising the domestic gas market.However,progress towards the unbundling of transport and marketing operations has been slow and tentative,highlighting the need for a more effective market structure to ensure fair competition an

108、d efficiency in the gas sector.Insufficient domestic pipeline connectivity was recognised early on as a key obstacle to building a gas-based economy nationwide in India.Between 2014 and 2020,the Government of India made efforts to expand the domestic gas transmission grid,but the buildout only accel

109、erated markedly in the 2020-2024 period,when Indias gas transmission network expanded by more than 7 000 km(40%).This notable growth was driven by an uptick in new project approvals by PNGRB,the launch of a capacity booking portal by GAIL(Gas Authority of India Limited)to facilitate third-party acce

110、ss,the introduction of a simplified pipeline tariff structure,the commissioning of three new LNG import terminals(Ennore,Mundra,Dhamra)and the expansion of one existing project(Dahej)requiring pipeline connections and the expansion of the domestic gas grid to Indias underserved northeastern states i

111、n recent years(most notably through the 3 500 km Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro-Dhamra Natural Gas Pipeline system).This outlook anticipates the length of the domestic gas transmission grid to reach around 35 000 km by 2030,more than doubling the size of the network between 2020 and 2030.The largest addit

112、ions are expected to come from the inauguration of the Mumbai-Nagpur-Jharsuguda pipeline(around 1 750 km)and the North East Natural Gas Grid(around 1 650 km).IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|17 Length of the domestic gas transmission pipeline ne

113、twork in India,2014-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Pipeline length on 30 June of each year or closest date available.Source:IEA analysis based on data from PPAC.City gas distribution Under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board(PNGRB)Act of 2006,the PNGRB organises competitive bidding rounds and gr

114、ants licences to companies to develop a city gas distribution network within a specified geographical area(GA).Bidders are required to commit to a minimum work programme(MWP)over a period,which typically ranges between 8-10 years to provide domestic PNG connections,set up CNG filling stations and la

115、y a certain quantity of steel pipes.Authorised entities enjoy marketing exclusivity for a period of 8 years(extendable up to 10 years for entities meeting the quoted work programme)and infrastructure exclusivity for a period of 25 years in their respective geographical areas(GA).As of 2024,India had

116、 allocated licences for 307 GAs in 12 bid rounds,covering most of Indias population and territory.05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 000201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242030KilometresActualFutureIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 P

117、AGE|18 Geographical coverage of CGD connections in India by bidding round,2008-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on data from PNGRB.The current rollout of Indias CGD network is focused on the 210 GAs allocated under the 9th(April 2018),10th(November 2018),11th(September 2021 and January 2

118、022)and 12th(March 2024)bid rounds.Under the already awarded bidding rounds,CGD companies have committed to connect 126 million pipeline gas users across the residential,commercial and small industrial sectors,and are expected to add more than 18 300 CNG stations to Indias distribution grid by 2032.

119、Based on the interim targets under the most recent bid rounds,the Indian government expects 120 million pipeline gas connections and 17 500 CNG stations by 2030.At the end of 2024,India had just under 14 million pipeline gas connections and approximately 7 400 CNG stations.Annual additions of PNG co

120、nnections averaged 1.6 million in the 2020-2024 period and never exceeded 2 million to date.The corresponding expansion rate for the CNG station network averaged just over 1 000 stations per year between 2020 and 2024 and the maximum yearly increase was 1 400 stations in 2022.To hit the 2030 targets

121、,the rollout of PNG connections would need to accelerate more than ten-fold(to nearly 18 million connections per year)between 2025-2030 relative to the 2020-2024 average and the expansion of the CNG station network had to expand 60%faster through 2030(adding more than 1 700 units each year)than in t

122、he 2020-2024 period.0501001502002503003500%20%40%60%80%100%Cumulative Geographical AreasCumulative%of area and population coveredCumulative%of areaCumulative%of populationCumulative Geographical AreasIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|19 Growth of

123、 domestic PNG connections and CNG stations in India,2015-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Data reported as of September annually.Source:IEA analysis based on data from PNGRB.Underground gas storage India currently lacks underground gas storage(UGS)facilities and has only limited LNG storage capacity,equivale

124、nt to around 1.9 bcm.In July 2023,the PNGRB proposed developing strategic gas reserves to enhance energy security and mitigate price volatility.In November 2023,the Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas(MoPNG)instructed ONGC,Oil India and GAIL to conduct a feasibility study for strategic gas

125、stocks with a capacity of 3-4 bcm.The report will evaluate costs,potential locations,timelines and business models.The initial UGS capacity of up to 4 bcm is estimated to cost USD 1-2 billion,with construction expected to take 3-4 years following project approval.Potential sites are being considered

126、 in western and northeastern India,using depleted fields or salt caverns.Indias primary motivation for exploring underground storage options stems from the extreme price volatility experienced in 2022 and the resulting curtailments of gas supply to price-sensitive users(especially in the power,oil r

127、efining,and CNG sectors)during the peak of the 2022-23 energy crisis.A number of European countries(including Italy,Hungary,Bulgaria,Spain,Latvia,Germany,Austria and Czechia)have developed strategic gas reserves to provide backup during gas supply emergencies and Indias recent experience with buildi

128、ng strategic petroleum reserves offers a suitable template for creating strategic gas stocks.However,strategic reserves represent only one of many gas reserve mechanisms and flexibility options available to net importing countries.3 Given the relatively 3 More information about this can be found in

129、this IEA commentary:Secure gas and LNG value chains call for greater international co-operation.0246810121401 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 0002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Domestic PNG connections(in millions)CNG StationsCNG StationsDomestic PNG Connections(in millions)IEA.CC BY

130、 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|20 high cost,long lead-time and limited use of strategic stocks during the 2022-23 energy crisis in Europe,India could explore a broader range of solutions to mitigate the economic impact of future price shocks.In additio

131、n,several other factors can justify investment in UGS,including price arbitrage opportunities from the seasonal price spread between summer and winter,and the ability to ensure quick gas availability for gas-fired power plants to ramp up rapidly in response to electricity system needs and price fluc

132、tuations.Regulatory issues The PNGRB regulates access to gas transport and distribution networks,transmission tariffs and the authorisation of companies involved in gas transport,distribution,storage,and LNG trade.In principle,Indias gas transmission network has been open to regulated non-discrimina

133、tory third-party access(TPA)since the adoption of the PNGRB Act of 2006.To further facilitate this,GAIL set up an online capacity booking platform in 2018 to provide transparent open access to its pipelines to third parties.However,the unbundling of transport and marketing operations,which was first

134、 initiated in 2019,is yet to materialise.International experience in the European Union and other mature gas markets shows that the unbundling of supply and transmission activities is a key prerequisite to a well-functioning gas market.However,in most liberalised gas markets,including EU member stat

135、es,the development of legacy pipeline infrastructure preceded the market liberalisation process,and was overseen by national monopolies under state control.Given the highly capital-intensive nature and low returns associated with gas transmission infrastructure development,an extended timeline for s

136、eparating transmission activities in India may also be appropriate.In the longer term,the unbundling of transport and marketing operations and establishing an independent gas transmission system operator(TSO)in India would likely enhance competition,improve market flexibility and increase the utilis

137、ation of the domestic gas transmission grid,which averaged only around 40%in the 2015-2023 period.The introduction of a unified pipeline tariff system in April 2023 removed one key barrier to greater gas penetration,especially in remote areas,which are located far from gas supply sources and LNG ter

138、minals.The unified tariff policy will apply to 21 pipelines representing 90%of operational and under construction transmission capacity.Prior to the reform,customers in the countrys interior faced cumulative pipeline tariffs due to the addition of multiple transit zones and tariffs,often leading to

139、high costs for long-distance pipeline gas transport.In October 2024,the PNGRB took steps to remove the exclusivity rights of six CGD operators in 73 districts and reclassify these areas as common carrier networks open to third parties on a non-discriminatory basis.Similar attempts in IEA.CC BY 4.0.I

140、ndia Gas Market Report Chapter 2.Gas infrastructure Outlook to 2030 PAGE|21 the past faced legal challenges,but a pending amendment to the PNGRB Act of 2006 could give the regulator more authority to revoke exclusivity rights and enforce open access to the distribution grid if CGD operators fail to

141、meet MWP requirements.Opening Indias distribution network to third-party access would reduce CGD companies profits,discourage investment and potentially lead to additional delays in the buildout of the CGD network.On the other hand,it could increase competition in one of Indias most dynamic end-use

142、sectors,lower prices for consumers and ultimately lead to higher gas penetration in Indias energy mix.How this balances out would to a large extent depend on the tariffs that the network operators can charge network users.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Outlook t

143、o 2030 PAGE|22 Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Gas pricing in India is a multifaceted system influenced by various factors,including international benchmarks,domestic production and government policies.India employs two primary gas pricing mechanisms:the Administered Price Mechanism(APM)and prices de

144、termined by market forces.The APM applies to gas from older onshore fields allocated to public sector companies,with prices set by the Petroleum Planning&Analysis Cell(PPAC).In contrast,the price of gas from newer fields and imported LNG is determined,to varying degrees,by market forces.Historically

145、,APM gas prices were based on a formula considering the weighted average of gas prices in Canada,the United States,the European Union and Russia.This approach often led to significant price volatility.Between the October 2020-March 2021 and October 2022-March 2023 cycles,for example,the regulated do

146、mestic price jumped from USD 1.79 to 9.16/MBtu.Following the recommendations of the Kirit Parikh Committee,the government revised the APM pricing mechanism in April 2023 to better reflect market conditions and simultaneously ensure fair pricing for both producers and consumers.The new mechanism link

147、s the APM gas price to 10%of the monthly average of the Indian Crude Basket,4 with a USD 4/MBtu price floor and a USD 6.5/MBtu ceiling price for gas production from ONGCs and Oil Indias nomination gas fields to protect against extreme market fluctuations.Since the introduction of the new formula in

148、2023,the APM gas price has remained at the maximum level of USD 6.5/MBtu.Gas produced from new wells or well interventions in nomination fields is allowed a 20%premium over the APM price.To incentivise exploration and production in challenging environments,the Indian government grants marketing and

149、pricing freedom for natural gas extracted from high pressure/high temperature(HP/HT)fields in deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas.This policy,effective for discoveries commencing commercial production from 1 January 2016,allows producers to set market-driven prices,subject to a ceiling determined bi

150、annually based on the landed price of alternative fuels.The ceiling price in USD/MBtu(on a gross calorific value GCV basis)is to be the lowest of the(i)landed price of imported fuel oil,(ii)weighted average landed price 4 The Indian Crude Basket is a weighted average of the prices of two types of cr

151、ude oil:sour crude from Oman and Dubai(78.5%),and sweet crude from Brent(21.5%).This basket serves as an indicator of the price of crude oil imports for India and is used by the government to monitor and manage domestic pricing issues.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in In

152、dia Outlook to 2030 PAGE|23 of imported substitute fuels(0.3 x price of coal+0.4 x price of fuel oil+0.3 x price of naphtha)and(iii)the landed price of imported LNG.As of the second half of FY 24-25,the ceiling price from these challenging fields is set at USD 10.16/MBtu,reflecting a 3%increase from

153、 the previous period.Operators in fields under the Discovered Small Field(DSF)Policy,Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy(HELP),and all coal bed methane(CBM)blocks have full autonomy over natural gas marketing and pricing.Similarly,operators in blocks under the New Exploration Licensing Poli

154、cy(NELP),pre-NELP and nomination regimes enjoy marketing and pricing freedom if their field development plans were approved after 28 February 2019.Additionally,natural gas discoveries in northeastern basins that commenced production after 1 July 2018,also qualify for similar autonomy.Snapshot of con

155、solidated upstream gas pricing regimes in India IEA.CC BY 4.0.*The Indian Crude Basket is a weighted average of crude oil prices from Oman,Dubai,and Brent crude.It indicates the cost of Indias crude oil imports and is used for domestic pricing decisions.Source:IEA analysis based on data from PPAC.We

156、 estimate that approximately 64%of Indias domestic gas supply in 2024 was priced as per APM.Additionally,29%fell under the HP/HT-deepwater price ceiling and 7%enjoyed full pricing and marketing freedom.For comparison,in 2020,85%of the gas was priced as per APM,indicating a clear shift towards higher

157、-priced gas as new volumes came online in recent years.This shift presents a challenge Marketing and pricing freedomHP/HT-deepwater price ceiling with marketing freedomDomestic gas price with ceiling(APM)-Calculated monthlySince April 2023,linked to 10%of the Indian crude oil basket*A floor of USD 4

158、/MBtu and ceiling of USD 6.5/MBtu applies(ceiling to be adjusted upwards by USD 0.25/MBtu periodically)Applies to nomination fields of ONGC and Oil India,NELP and pre-NELP contracts which required government approvalApplies to fields and blocks licensed under the DSF/HELP regime and all CBM blocksAl

159、so applies to NELP/pre-NELP,nomination blocks where field development plans were approved after 28 Feb 2019,and discoveries in northeastern basins which started producing after 1 July 2018Introduced in January 2016Pegged to the price of alternative imported fuelsApplies to deepwater and HP/HT fields

160、 which were not producing as of 1 Jan 2016Examples include Reliance-BPs KG-D6 fields(R Cluster,Satellites Cluster,MJ)and ONGCs KG-D5IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Outlook to 2030 PAGE|24 for the government as it seeks to balance consumer needs with the need to i

161、ncentivise upstream investment.The allocation mechanism for domestic gas The allocation of domestic natural gas to certain end users is not market-based but follows an allocation policy for priority sectors.The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas(MoPNG)manages this process,considering several key

162、factors.First,sectoral priorities are established,with the government prioritising sectors critical to economic development and public welfare.Second,the process assesses demand across various sectors alongside the available supply of domestic gas.Finally,specific government guidelines and policies

163、provide direction for the overall allocation process.As of the end of 2024,the allocation of domestic gas to piped natural gas(PNG)for domestic use and compressed natural gas(CNG)for transport has been given top priority.This ensures that these segments will continue to receive their allocated gas s

164、upply without any reductions.Additionally,gas is also allocated to gas-fired plants in the power generation sector,urea producers in the fertiliser sector and for the production of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG).Between May 2023 and November 2024,the share of APM gas allocated to CGD networks fell sig

165、nificantly from 96%to around 40%,due to a reduction in supplies of low-priced natural gas from domestic fields like Mumbai High and Bassein.This led to city gas retailers adjusting CNG prices by INR(Indian rupees)2-3 per kg,making CNG less competitive compared to diesel.To address these temporary is

166、sues,the MoPNG issued an order on 31 December 2024 to reallocate approximately 0.5 bcm/yr of gas from LPG production to city gas entities.Additionally,the government mandated a pro-rata allocation of gas from new wells and designated ONGCs Ramnad field exclusively for the city gas sector.These measu

167、res,which underscore the importance of the CGD sector to the government,aim to stabilise CNG prices and ensure a more reliable supply for Indias urban gas consumers.When domestic gas supply is insufficient to meet demand,consumers have to rely on regasified liquefied natural gas(RLNG).This imported

168、gas is procured under open general licenses and is subject to market prices.The average imported LNG price was approximately USD 12/MBtu in 2024,reflecting an 11%decrease from the previous year.Since the establishment of the Indian Gas Exchange(IGX),market participants in India have access to an alt

169、ernative market-based price discovery mechanism that provides clear price signals driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Outlook to 2030 PAGE|25 The role of the Indian Gas Exchange(IGX)in gas price discovery The IGX,establ

170、ished in 2020 under the regulatory framework of the PNGRB,is Indias first automated,national-level natural gas exchange.Initially limited to trading regasified LNG,the platform aims to evolve into a transparent,cost-reflective and uniform pricing mechanism for the entire Indian gas market.Currently,

171、the IGX operates across 15 delivery points,comprising 4 LNG terminals,3 pipeline interconnection points,and 8 domestic gas field landfall points.These points are grouped into 6 gas hubs.The exchange supports delivery-based trading through 7 contract types:intraday,day-ahead,daily,weekly,weekday,fort

172、nightly and monthly,allowing trades for up to two consecutive years.For IGX to serve as a reliable price reference point,certain conditions must be met.These include(1)the presence of multiple buyers and sellers across an unbundled gas value chain with transparent third-party access to infrastructur

173、e;(2)market liquidity allowing for the buying and selling of gas multiple times before final delivery and consumption;and(3)market depth,namely the availability of gas for both spot transactions and futures contracts.This enables market participants to manage risks,including by hedging future produc

174、tion or consumption.Despite its promise,Indias gas market is still in the early stages of development and faces challenges typical of emerging markets.These include a limited number of gas supply sources,insufficient(though rapidly growing)gas infrastructure,no underground gas storage facilities and

175、 a domestic market dominated by long-term bilateral contracts with restrictive delivery and resale conditions.The evolution of gas hubs in mature markets like the United States(Henry Hub)and Europe(National Balancing Point United Kingdom and Title Transfer Facility Netherlands)offers valuable lesson

176、s.These hubs required over a decade to mature and often relied on strong government intervention to limit the market power of incumbents.Similarly,Indias power sector exchange,established in 2008,has grown significantly but still accounts for only 7%of the countrys total electricity supply.The IGX w

177、ill require sustained efforts to overcome these challenges and develop into a robust and mature gas trading platform capable of shaping Indias energy market transformation.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Outlook to 2030 PAGE|26 Evolution of prices under the vario

178、us regimes in India,January 2019-October 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:IGX has been operating as a gas exchange since December 2020.Source:IEA analysis based on data from PPAC,IGX,ICIS LNG Edge.Inter-fuel competition Natural gas faces economic competition with alternative fuels in several sectors,includin

179、g power generation(with coal),road transport(with diesel,gasoline and EVs),and residential,commercial and small industrial users within the CGD sector(mainly with LPG).End-user gas prices are dependent on the source of gas(imported RLNG vs.domestic natural gas),tariffs and state taxes.The price of d

180、omestic natural gas can vary depending on the pricing regime the producing field falls under.In 2024,this price ranged between USD 6.5 and 9.9/MBtu.Another important variable is taxation.While coal,electricity and LPG fall under the goods and services tax regime(GST)regime,natural gas,diesel and gas

181、oline do not.Natural gas remains outside the scope of GST and is subject to various legacy taxes,including customs duties(ranging from 2.5 to 14%),central excise duty(0 to 14%),state value-added taxes(which vary by state,from 3%in Maharashtra to as high as 25%in Chhattisgarh)and a central sales tax.

182、When a fuel is subject to GST,it enables consumers to benefit from input tax credit(ITC),which allows them to claim credit for the GST paid on purchases(inward supplies)against their GST liability on sales(outward supplies).This mechanism reduces the overall tax burden on consumers and enhances cost

183、 efficiency,making fuels under GST more attractive for commercial use.0102030405060Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24USD/MBtuDomestic gas price with ceilingHP-HT gas ceiling priceIGX priceLNG average import priceLNG spot import priceIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Marke

184、t Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Outlook to 2030 PAGE|27 Power sector Gas-fired power plant utilisation rates have remained very low,ranging from 12-16%between 2022 and 2024 on an annual basis.A key reason for this is the lack of affordable domestic gas,which forces reliance on higher-priced

185、imported LNG,making gas-fired power generation uncompetitive,especially against coal-based power plants.This situation applies to existing assets,with no current plans to invest in new gas-fired power plants.Economic studies show that at a RLNG price of USD 14/MBtu,the cost of generating electricity

186、 from gas would be in the range of INR 12-18/kWh.At a RLNG price of USD 8/MBtu,the generation cost would still be in the range of INR 8-11/kWh.In comparison,the cost of generating electricity from coal is estimated at INR 4/kWh by the National Thermal Power Corporation(NTPC)for its own power plants.

187、This analysis may vary depending on the location of the power plants,both for coal and gas,as plants located near the domestic production site or close to the ports where coal or LNG are imported can benefit from reduced transportation costs.We estimate that input gas prices would have to be below U

188、SD 6/MBtu for gas-fired generation to be able to compete against coal-based power plants.For context,the cheapest domestically produced gas available in India is currently priced at USD 6.5/MBtu.However,it is essential to consider the external costs associated with different fuel types,such as healt

189、h impacts from air pollution and carbon emissions.Coal-based power generation contributes significantly to air pollution,leading to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,and emits large amounts of CO2.By incorporating these externalities into fuel prices(e.g.,through a robust carbon price signal),

190、the true cost of coal power becomes apparent.This adjustment could make natural gas more competitive in the merit order,as it produces fewer pollutants and lower carbon emissions compared to coal.Reflecting these external costs in fuel pricing would not only promote cleaner energy sources but also i

191、mprove public health and support climate goals.Transport CNG prices are highly competitive when compared to gasoline and diesel.However,state levies significantly influence the final prices of gasoline and diesel,as they do for CNG.A comparison of Delhi over the past two years,which has a relatively

192、 higher CNG penetration,shows that CNG prices(on an energy equivalency basis)are around 40%lower than gasoline and diesel prices,which also have a high tax component.For instance,the average CNG price for H1 2024 was INR 1.4/MJ,compared to INR 2.91/MJ for gasoline and INR 2.32/MJ for diesel.Similar

193、differentials can be observed in other prominent cities like Mumbai and Ahmedabad.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 3.Gas pricing in India Outlook to 2030 PAGE|28 In addition to price competitiveness,it is crucial to consider the external costs associated with fuel use,particularly the i

194、mpact on public health due to low air quality in urban areas.The use of diesel in transport,particularly in vehicles without particulate filters or those not compliant with the latest environmental regulations,contributes significantly to urban air pollution,leading to a series of adverse health imp

195、acts in Indias major cities.By contrast,CNG produces up to 80%less NOx and 99%less particulate matter than diesel vehicles.Therefore,the use of CNG in the transport sector not only offers economic benefits but could also help mitigate the adverse health effects associated with poor air quality.Resid

196、ential and commercial In the residential and commercial sector,PNG competes against LPG for cooking and water heating,as well as for heating or cooling in small commercial units and in small industries connected to the distribution grid.As per the minimum work programme submitted by CGD entities,the

197、 Government of India has an ambitious target to increase the number of household connections from less than 14 million at the end of 2024 to around 126 million by 2032.Unlike in transport,the price difference between PNG and LPG is far narrower.In mid-2024 in Mumbai,the price of a 14.2 kg LPG cylind

198、er worked out to be INR 1.23/MJ as compared to the PNG price of INR 1.2/MJ.However,the cost of building PNG infrastructure is significant,particularly when contrasted with the more straightforward delivery of LPG via cylinders.Consequently,the adoption of PNG for residential purposes is likely to fa

199、ce substantial challenges.This is further compounded by the relatively low potential consumption in Indian households,which primarily use gas for cooking and water heating,with no demand for space heating.The situation is further complicated as the government has also provided subsidised LPG cylinde

200、rs to over 100 million beneficiaries under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana(PMUY)initiative launched in 2016.This programme offers financial assistance to cover the cost of the LPG connection,including the first refills and a stove,aimed at promoting clean cooking in rural areas and helping low-inc

201、ome families mitigate indoor pollution and avoid the associated health risks.In India,small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)connected to the natural gas distribution grid(PNG sector)have the flexibility to switch between LPG and PNG based on price fluctuations.This adaptability is facilitated by s

202、hort contract durations,often spanning one month or less,allowing SMEs to optimise their fuel costs effectively.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|29 Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Indias natural gas consumption more than doubled since 2000,reaching

203、 over 65 bcm by 2023,comparable to that of the United Kingdom.Indias growth path was highly uneven in the last two decades.Between 2000 and 2011,domestic gas use expanded rapidly,driven by a production boom in the deepwater Krishna-Godavari basin that provided affordable gas for the domestic market.

204、However,this production peak was short-lived,and consumption declined sharply after 2011,entering a prolonged slump that persisted through much of the decade.Total natural gas demand and annual growth rate in India,2000-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Data reported on a fiscal year basis.Source:IEA(2024),Na

205、tural Gas Information.A modest recovery began around 2015,supported by low LNG import prices and government efforts to promote a gas-based economy.While the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis temporarily disrupted demand,Indias gas consumption rebounded strongly,achieving double-digit

206、 growth in both 2023 and 2024.Sectoral trends Between 2016 and 2023,Indias sector-wise natural gas consumption increased by 30%(15 bcm/yr).The city gas segment(up 86%),fertiliser production(up 33%)-10%0%10%20%30%40%-200204060802000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172

207、0182019202020212022%change y-o-ybcmGas consumption growth(right axis)Gas consumption(left axis)IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|30 and other industries(up 127%)saw rapid consumption growth during this period as the low-pressure distribution grid

208、 was built out,and urea producers and a host of industrial users converted from liquid fuels to natural gas.Meanwhile,gas use in the power generation(down 24%),oil refining(down 5%),and petrochemical(down 39%)sectors declined over time as high gas and LNG prices pushed these price-sensitive industri

209、es to switch to alternative fuels.Annual natural gas consumption by sector in India,2016-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Data reported on a calendar year basis.Source:IEA analysis based on PPAC data.Between 2023 and 2030,gas consumption is projected to grow by nearly 60%(37 bcm/yr),reaching 103 bcm/yr by th

210、e end of the forecast period.The CGD sector is expected to lead this growth,supported by the rapid expansion of CNG infrastructure and the cost advantage of gas over liquid fuels for small industrial users,creating a strong foundation for further gas penetration.Heavy industrial and manufacturing se

211、ctors grouped under the“other”category,such as iron and steel,are also driving demand,collectively adding around 15 bcm/yr during this period thanks to improved pipeline connectivity and robust industrial growth.Gas use in oil refining is expected to increase by more than 4 bcm/yr(+84%)as more refin

212、eries are connected to the grid and refinery runs increase at existing plants that are already running on gas.Growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertiliser sectors remain more limited,as no new gas-based capacity additions are foreseen within the 2030 forecast horizon.The power generation sec

213、tor is projected to grow at a healthy 8%annual average rate between 2023 and 2030,driven by a recovery in large gas-fired power plants following the 2022 slump and rapid expansion of gas use in captive power plants.01020304050607080201620172018201920202021202220232024bcmPowerCGDOil refiningPetrochem

214、icalsFertilisersOtherIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|31 Natural gas demand outlook in India,2023-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.City gas distribution Indias city gas sector includes four traditional end-use segments residential,commercial,small industries,

215、and CNG for vehicles and a nascent new one,LNG for heavy-duty transport.As of 2023,CNG was the dominant segment,accounting for nearly 60%of CGD consumption.Residential and commercial users together accounted for only about 10%of CGD demand,while small industries connected to the low-pressure distrib

216、ution grid contributed a little over 30%to CGD gas use.Between 2023 and 2030,city gas demand is expected to increase by close to 70%(9 bcm/yr),achieving a CAGR of almost 8%.Most of the growth will come from the CNG sector(5.8 bcm/yr)and small industries(2.8 bcm/yr),with residential and commercial us

217、ers adding approximately 0.5 bcm/yr through 2030.4050607080901001102023PowerCGDOil refiningPetrochemicalsFertilisersLNG vehiclesOthers2030bcmIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|32 Natural gas demand in the city gas distribution sector in India,2021

218、-2030 Note:Data reported on a calendar year basis.Source:IEA analysis based on PPAC data.The strong overall growth in the CGD sector is driven by the ongoing rollout of CNG filling stations and distribution grids,and supportive government policies towards the CGD sector and LNG use in transport.The

219、winners of the PNGRBs last four bid rounds have collectively committed to increase the number connections to CGD networks by more than ten-fold(to reach 120 million)and the number of CNG stations by threefold(to 17 500)between 2023 and 2030.While these targets are challenging,even a partial delivery

220、 would drive rapid gas demand growth in the city gas sector.The government has implemented several measures to promote the use of CNG and PNG across the country.These include reallocating the cheapest(APM-priced)domestic gas from power and other non-priority sectors to CNG and residential city gas u

221、sers and ensuring preferential treatment for CNG and residential PNG consumers in the distribution of high pressure/high temperature(HP/HT)gas,which is subject to a price ceiling.Compressed natural gas India has become one of the worlds largest markets for CNG in the transport sector,with around 7.7

222、 million CNG-fuelled vehicles on the road in 2024.These vehicles are primarily three-wheelers,passenger cars and buses,many of which serve shared mobility purposes,such as taxis or public transport.The rapid expansion of CNG infrastructure has been a key driver of this growth.Significant investments

223、 by both the government and private sector have focused on 05101520252021202220232024202520262027202820292030bcmCNGResidentialCommercialSmall industryActualForecastIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|33 increasing accessibility and convenience for

224、consumers by establishing new refuelling stations,expanding existing networks and building a robust pipeline infrastructure for efficient distribution.Since 2019,the number of CNG stations in India has quadrupled,with over 7 000 operational stations as of mid-2024.These stations are predominantly lo

225、cated in the western and northern regions,with Gujarat and Maharashtra leading,followed by Uttar Pradesh,Delhi and Haryana.However,the distribution remains uneven,with these five states accounting for 56%of all CNG stations nationwide.Retail prices for CNG were 30-60%lower than gasoline prices betwe

226、en 2020 and 2023,partly due to the priority allocation of cheap APM-priced gas to the CNG sector.In October 2024,due to a reduction in supplies of low-priced natural gas from domestic fields like Mumbai High and Bassein,the Indian government reduced the allocation of APM gas to the CGD segment by 20

227、%,narrowing though not eliminating the price advantage of CNG over competing fuels.To address these temporary issues,the MoPNG ordered on 31 December 2024 to reallocate 0.5 bcm of gas per year from LPG to city gas retailers,in order to ensure a reliable supply for CNG and to stabilise prices.By 2023

228、,natural gas consumption in the CNG segment reached 7.6 bcm/yr,a nearly 40%increase from 2021.Between 2023 and 2030,CNG consumption is expected to grow by more than 75%,surpassing 13 bcm/yr by the end of the decade.This growth is driven by the continued expansion of the CNG filling station network,t

229、he sustained cost advantage of CNG at the pump and ongoing concerns about urban air pollution,to which the transport sector remains a major contributor in Indias cities.Residential demand Gas use in the residential sector is limited to cooking and water heating in India.Expanding access to clean coo

230、king has been a longstanding government priority,as traditional biomass use poses a serious public health challenge.Access to clean fuels like natural gas or LPG is especially limited in rural areas,home to two-thirds of Indias households.In urban areas,LPG dominates as the main cooking fuel,followe

231、d by electricity and PNG.PNG offers several advantages over LPG,including convenience(no need for cylinder booking,storage or handling),higher energy content per unit,and improved safety.However,its cost depends on various factors,such as procurement costs,state taxes,tariffs,subsidies,connection fe

232、es and distribution expenses.Between 2019 and 2023,the number of residential PNG connections more than doubled to over 11 million,representing annual consumption of about 1 bcm.Residential gas use is heavily concentrated in five states Gujarat,Maharashtra,Delhi,Haryana and Uttar Pradesh which accoun

233、t for over 80%of all PNG connections.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|34 If city gas companies fully implement their MWP commitments from recent bid rounds,India could achieve 120 million residential PNG connections by 2030.However,progress has

234、lagged significantly behind targets.Consequently,this outlook anticipates only around 22 million residential connections by 2030,with total residential gas consumption reaching approximately 1.3 bcm/yr.Commercial demand PNG has emerged as the preferred fuel source for various commercial establishmen

235、ts and public services,including restaurants,hotels,hospitals,dairies,bakeries,offices,shopping malls and educational institutions,where gas can offer significant cost and convenience benefits relative to oil and coal,respectively.Gas use in this segment encompasses cooking,water heating,air conditi

236、oning,space heating,steam production and power generation.At the end of 2023,India had about 40 000 commercial PNG connections delivering 0.3 bcm to end users annually.The number of connections is expected to reach 65 000 by 2030,pushing gas consumption to 0.5 bcm/yr by the end of the decade(at a CA

237、GR of 9%).Small industries Industries consuming less than 50 000 cubic meters of gas per day can access natural gas through the CGD network.Pipeline gas is widely used in industrial applications such as chemicals production,food processing,textile mills,ceramics and glass manufacturing.It powers equ

238、ipment including boilers,furnaces,ovens,kilns and industrial kitchens.Natural gas offers several advantages for industrial use,including a reliable supply that ensures uninterrupted operations and environmental benefits.Natural gas emits 20-30%less CO than liquid fuels and,unlike coal,it produces mi

239、nimal particulate matter and SOx emissions.These attributes are particularly significant in India,where the Central Pollution Control Board classifies nearly 70 industrial areas as critically or severely polluted.Further extension of the CGD network could pave the way for additional pollution contro

240、l efforts and facilitate fuel switching to natural gas.By 2023,small industrial users with CGD connections numbered around 18 000,collectively consuming slightly over 4 bcm of gas annually.This segment is expected to grow at an average rate of 8%per year,reaching nearly 7 bcm/yr by 2030.However,smal

241、l industrial users are highly price-sensitive,with many retaining the flexibility to switch to alternative fuels if gas becomes economically less viable.For instance,between 2021 and 2024,the number of CGD connections for industrial users increased by 50%,but actual gas consumption declined by about

242、 IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|35 7%during the same period.This decline was particularly pronounced in 2022,at the peak of the global energy crisis,when gas use in the small industrial segment dropped by 20%due to high prices.LNG for transpor

243、t India relies heavily on diesel-powered road transport,with trucks transporting nearly 70%of goods and contributing 35-40%of total road transport emissions.Rising economic activity and the expansion of the highway network are expected to drive a sharp increase in freight transport demand in the com

244、ing years.Recognising LNGs potential as a cleaner alternative to diesel for long-haul trucks,the Government of India amended the Central Motor Vehicles Rules in 2017 to include LNG as a transport fuel.Further amendments in 2018 introduced codes to support the establishment of LNG fuelling infrastruc

245、ture.A key clarification by the PNGRB in 2020 confirmed that entities could set up LNG stations in any geographical area,removing LNG from the exclusive rights of CGD companies and opening up the segment to third-party participation.These measures aimed to resolve ambiguities and catalyse the nation

246、wide development of LNG dispensing stations.To support the transition,the government launched initiatives to expand LNG infrastructure.In November 2020,the foundation was laid for 50 LNG fuelling stations along national highways and the Golden Quadrilateral connecting Delhi,Mumbai,Chennai and Kolkat

247、a.Public sector entities including IOCL,BPCL,HPCL,GAIL,Petronet LNG and Gujarat Gas were mandated by the government to develop this initial phase.Plans are underway to establish LNG stations every 200-300 km along the Golden Quadrilateral and invest INR 100 billion(USD 1.2 billion)to develop 1 000 L

248、NG stations through public and private sector collaboration.A draft policy document by the MoPNG proposed converting up to a third of Indias 7 million heavy-duty vehicles to LNG within five to seven years.It also suggested allocating 0.18 bcm/yr of APM gas for LNG trucks over an initial three-year p

249、eriod to support the development of a 50 000-strong LNG truck fleet.However,these goals beyond the 50 initial pilot LNG stations remain highly ambitious and converting diesel trucks to LNG purely on economic grounds is currently unattractive for fleet operators.In 2023,India had only 645 operational

250、 LNG trucks,consuming a negligible 0.03 bcm of LNG annually.Without additional fiscal support and infrastructure investment,this outlook expects Indias LNG truck fleet to reach only 5 000 vehicles by 2030,in line with NITI Aayogs estimates of the number of trucks that the first 50 LNG stations can s

251、upport.This would result in annual gas consumption of slightly over 0.2 bcm for LNG trucking by the end of the forecast period.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|36 Fertilisers Fertiliser production is Indias largest gas-consuming sector,accountin

252、g for nearly a third(21 bcm)of the countrys total gas demand in 2023.Natural gas is used as a feedstock for ammonia-based urea production,which is viewed by the government as vital for the countrys agricultural sector and food security.Domestic gas allocations to the fertiliser sector have steadily

253、declined,falling to approximately 3 bcm/yr by 2023.As a result,reliance on imported LNG has surged,covering 85%of the sectors gas needs in 2023,up from less than 50%in 2016.Urea is sold to farmers at a highly subsidised price of INR 242(USD 2.9)per 45-kg bag.To cover the gap between market prices an

254、d this discounted rate,the government provides significant subsidies to urea producers and importers.This presents a substantial fiscal burden for the budget.In FY 2022-23,urea subsidies peaked at INR 2.5 trillion(USD 31 billion)due to surging global energy and fertiliser prices.However,as long as I

255、ndias fertiliser subsidy scheme is in place,gas demand in the fertiliser sector remains insensitive to price fluctuations,despite the sectors increasingly heavy reliance on imported LNG.Between 2018 and 2023,gas consumption in the fertiliser sector grew by 40%,reaching nearly 21 bcm in 2023,at an av

256、erage annual increase of 7%.This expansion was driven by the conversion of Indias last naphtha-based fertiliser plants(operated by Madras Fertilizers,SPIC,and Mangalore Chemicals&Fertilizers)to natural gas,the restart of four previously idled plants(Ramagundam,Gorakhpur,Sindri,Barauni)using natural

257、gas feedstock and the commissioning of a major greenfield project(Matix Fertilisers).Between 2023 and 2030,gas demand in Indias fertiliser sector is projected to grow at a modest CAGR of around 1%,driven by increased activity at existing plants.No new greenfield fertiliser projects using natural gas

258、 are expected within the 2030 forecast horizon.A recently announced gas-based urea plant in Namrup(Assam)was included in the 2025 Union Budget but had no clear timeline at the time of writing and is likely to contribute to fertiliser sector gas demand only after 2030.Meanwhile,the upcoming Talcher p

259、lant in Odisha state will rely on coal gasification technology and use coal as its feedstock.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|37 Fertiliser subsidies in India,FY 2014-15 FY 2023-24 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The right-hand axis has been included to make

260、 converting currencies easier.It is based on the average exchange rate seen in 2024(1 Indian Rupee=0.012 US Dollar).Source:IEA analysis based on data from India Budget.Power generation At the end of 2023,India had 24 GW of installed gas-fired power plant capacity,but these plants generated only 29 T

261、Wh of electricity,reflecting a low average load factor of 14%.Average annual utilisation rates for the fleet fluctuated between 12%and 25%from 2019 to 2024,largely influenced by imported LNG price trends.But even during record-low gas prices in 2020,average load factors(at 25%)remained very low by i

262、nternational standards.The underutilised gas-fired capacity in India is due to two main factors.First,as of the end of 2023,nearly half(11.3 GW)of the installed capacity remained idle due to limited gas availability.Many of these stranded plants were built in the mid-2000s in anticipation of a signi

263、ficant gas production boom from the Krishna-Godavari basin,which proved short-lived,and priority access to low-cost domestic gas,which was reallocated to the city gas distribution sector in 2013.Second,gas-fired power plants face competitiveness challenges.Without priority access to low-cost APM gas

264、,direct subsidies or a robust carbon pricing mechanism,these plants struggle against coal-fired generators,which benefit from lower fuel costs and more favourable taxation.As a result,most non-stranded gas-fired plants operate as marginal units with relatively low utilisation rates.In 2023,the power

265、 generation sector consumed 8.8 bcm of natural gas.Of this,6.8 bcm was used by main-activity power producers and 2 bcm by captive 051015202530350.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Billion USDTrillion INRIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|38 generators.By 2030,na

266、tural gas consumption in the sector is projected to reach 15 bcm,a nearly 70%increase.About one-third of this projected growth will come from main-activity power plants,where load factors are expected to recover to an average of 18%,similar to 2019-2023 levels.This recovery is supported by expected

267、declining LNG prices towards the end of the decade and the introduction of a high-price day-ahead electricity market in 2023.This new market allows gas-fired power plants using imported LNG to sell electricity at up to INR 50/kWh(or USD 0.6/kWh)on the Indian Energy Exchange,significantly above the I

268、NR 10/kWh(or USD 0.12/kWh)cap for other generators,enabling greater participation of stranded gas plants to meet peak demand.Flexible gas-fired generators could receive further support from the governments draft National Electricity Policy(NEP),which aims to increase the share of Indias power consum

269、ption traded on the spot market to 25%by 2030(from less than 8%today),and the recently introduced Late Payment Surcharge Rules,which require thermal generators to sell surplus power on the spot market.The remaining growth is expected to come from captive generators,driven by rising overall electrici

270、ty demand,improved economics of gas relative to liquid fuels,and local restrictions on coal and other polluting fuels in industrial areas near urban centres.Oil refining Over the past two decades,India has established itself as a major oil refining hub and exporter of refined petroleum products to t

271、he rest of the world.Between 2006 and 2023,the countrys oil refining capacity more than doubled to 5.8 MMbbl/d,making India the fourth-largest oil refiner in the world.In the 2024-2030 period,distillation capacity is projected to grow by an additional 1 MMbbl/d,with most new capacity coming online b

272、etween 2025 and 2027.This expansion is primarily driven by public sector undertakings(PSUs)to meet rising domestic demand and increase petrochemical output at integrated plants.Natural gas is widely used in refinery operations,serving as fuel for process heaters,boilers,cogeneration plants and as fe

273、edstock for hydrogen production.In 2023,Indias oil refineries consumed 5.1 bcm of natural gas,a 24%increase from the previous year.However,gas consumption has fluctuated significantly in recent years,peaking at 8.4 bcm in 2020 before falling to under 4.1 bcm in 2022 due to record high spot LNG price

274、s.A subsequent recovery saw consumption increase by about 1 bcm in both 2023 and 2024,aided by rising domestic gas production and improved gas connectivity,which boosted domestic gas allocation to the oil refining sector from 22%(1.3 bcm)in 2021 to 38%(1.9 bcm)by 2023.Between 2023 and 2030,gas consu

275、mption in the oil refining sector is projected to grow at nearly 9%annually,reaching more than 9 bcm/yr by 2030.This increase IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|39 will be driven by higher refinery runs at existing units that already use natural g

276、as,and the addition of several new projects and capacity expansions in coming years.Key developments include new refineries at Barmer and Nagapattinam,as well as expansion projects at the Vizag 2,Numaligarh,Panipat,Koyali and Barauni refineries all of which will be connected to the national gas grid

277、 by the second half of the decade.Petrochemicals Indias demand for petrochemical products is rapidly growing,fuelled by urbanisation,rising incomes and infrastructure expansion.To meet this demand,the country is boosting production capacity with major projects,including a new polyethylene unit at HP

278、CL-Mittal Energys Bathinda refinery,polyethylene and polypropylene plants at HPCLs Rajasthan refinery and GAILs polypropylene facility under construction in Usar.The Make in India initiative supports this growth by driving investment and infrastructure development.Natural gas consumption in the petr

279、ochemical sector reached 2.6 bcm in 2023,a 27%increase from the low point of 2.0 bcm in 2022,caused by high LNG prices and LNG supply disruptions from Gazprom Marketing and Trading,which was taken over by the German government in that year.However,consumption in 2023 remained about 25%below the 2017

280、-2021 average of 3.5 bcm/yr,as operators have increasingly relied on ethane and NGL-based feedstocks in recent years.New petrochemical projects often use dual natural gas and naphtha crackers and prefer to use naphtha from integrated oil refining operations when it is available.Companies like Relian

281、ce Industries,Petronet and GAIL are also expanding the use of imported ethane and NGLs as feedstock for their petrochemical plants.Incremental gas demand growth is limited to recovering activity at existing gas-connected facilities.This is projected to drive petrochemical sector gas demand to around

282、 3.5 bcm/yr by 2030,representing a 5%annual increase from 2023.Other sectors About a quarter(15 bcm)of Indias sector-wise natural gas consumption in 2023 came from various sectors collectively classified as“other”,including iron and steel production,large manufacturing industries,agriculture,and gas

283、 used in oil and gas operations and pipeline transport.Approximately two-thirds of this other demand is estimated to come from sub-sectors classified by the International Energy Agency as industry.The remaining share is a mix of energy own use,pipeline transport,agriculture-related consumption and o

284、n-site generation not classified elsewhere.Between 2023 and 2030,total gas consumption in these“other”sectors is projected to double,reaching over 30 bcm/yr by the end of the forecast period.About 95%of this increase is set to come from industrial activities.The remaining IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Mar

285、ket Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|40 growth is driven by gas use for pipeline transport,fuelled by the rapid expansion of Indias gas transmission and distribution networks.Sponge iron and steel Natural gas-based direct reduced iron(DRI)is preferred for its lower emissions

286、and superior quality compared to traditional coal-based steel production methods.However,limited access to affordable domestic natural gas and the high cost of LNG imports have hindered its adoption in India.As of 2023,only three natural gas-based DRI units operated in the country,accounting for les

287、s than 20%of total steel production.Sponge iron and steel production consumed 1.1 bcm of natural gas in 2023,largely relying on LNG imports.The European Unions Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),which is set to take full effect in January 2026,has prompted Indian steelmakers to advocate increa

288、sed domestic gas allocations,price subsidies,and infrastructure investment to adopt cleaner production methods and reduce the steel industrys reliance on coal.Gas consumption in the sponge iron and steel segment is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 8%,reaching close to 2 bcm/yr by 2030.

289、Agriculture(tea plantations)India is a major tea producer,accounting for over 20%of global tea production in 2023,with Assam and West Bengal being the leading producing states.The tea industry relies heavily on thermal energy from coal,firewood and natural gas during the withering and drying process

290、es.In 2023,the sector consumed an estimated 0.1 bcm of natural gas.To support the energy transition,the government has introduced measures such as the Northeast Gas Subsidy.However,limited gas availability in the main tea-producing regions remains a challenge.The Northeast Gas Grid,expected to be op

291、erational by 2026,aims to improve natural gas access in Indias northeastern states,enabling its broader adoption and reducing reliance on traditional fuels.Despite these developments,the tea production sectors gas consumption is expected to remain modest,reaching 0.2 bcm in 2030.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India

292、Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|41 Potential levers for higher gas demand in India by 2030 Based on current policy and market trends,Indias total natural gas consumption is projected to reach 103 bcm/yr by 2030,a nearly 60%increase from 2023 levels.This represents

293、 a nearly 7%annual average growth rate between 2023 and 2030,far in excess of the previous five years CAGR of less than 2%.Nevertheless,this projected demand falls short of the Indian governments targeted consumption level of 500 mmscmd(182.5 bcm/yr)by 2030.This analysis presents a number of areas w

294、here additional policy support coupled with improved infrastructure and a lower LNG price environment can unlock higher natural gas demand over the forecast horizon,boosting total consumption by 15 bcm/yr to nearly 120 bcm/yr by 2030.Potential levers to achieve higher gas consumption in India by 203

295、0 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Power generation Although challenges persist for Indias stranded gas-fired power plants,the fleet has demonstrated its ability to operate at load factors near 30%under favourable market conditions or government mandates.In mid-2020,for example,the collapse of global LNG spot prices d

296、uring the Covid-19 pandemic spurred a sharp rise in gas-fired generation,with load factors reaching 25-30%between March and November.Similarly,in Q2 2024,plant load factors surged 20-30%when the Ministry of Power invoked Section 11 of the Electricity Act of 2003,requiring available gas plants to ope

297、rate at full capacity from May to June to meet surging power demand during a prolonged heat wave and drought.80901001101202030(base case)PowerCGDLNG vehicles2030(high case)bcmIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|42 Gas-fired generation capacity and

298、average plant load factor in India,2019-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on data from Central Electricity Authority.In the past,the Indian government introduced various initiatives to support stranded gas-fired power plants.Between 2015 and 2017,the government organised reverse auctions

299、to subsidise LNG purchases for stranded gas plants using Indias Power System Development Fund.In 2019-2020,two separate schemes were proposed to revive 4 000 MW of stranded gas-fired capacity:one aimed to procure 2 000 MW of gas-fired capacity through an online auction,while the other sought to bund

300、le 2 000 MW of gas-based power with an equivalent amount of solar capacity.However,these plans were shelved in mid-2020 as low LNG prices temporarily revived gas-fired generation without additional support.Indias gas-fired power plants could sustainably operate at average utilisation rates of 30%,bu

301、t achieving this would likely require targeted support schemes,a strong carbon price signal,of some combination of both.Reaching this higher load factor could generate an incremental gas demand of approximately 5.8 bcm/yr by 2030 compared to the projected demand at an 18%load factor.LNG in heavy-dut

302、y transport LNG use in heavy-duty transport presents further upside potential for gas demand.A detailed 2024 study by NITI Aayog estimated that,with the right incentives,India could have 50 000 LNG-fuelled trucks on its roads by 2030,ten times as much as expected in our forecast.Potential incentives

303、 to achieve this include road toll 0%10%20%30%40%50%0510152025Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Plant load factorGWAverage plant load factor(right axis)Installed gas-fired capacity(left axis

304、)IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 4.Gas demand outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|43 exemptions for LNG vehicles,public sector procurement programmes,reduced fuel taxes on LNG,domestic gas allocation for LNG vehicles and corporate fuel efficiency standards for heavy-duty vehicle(HDV)manufactu

305、rers.The accelerated adoption of LNG-fuelled HDVs could generate an additional gas demand of approximately 2 bcm/yr by 2030.City gas distribution The accelerated expansion of city gas distribution(CGD)infrastructure and targeted incentives could significantly boost Indias natural gas demand by 2030.

306、Under the current forecast,India is expected to add approximately 1.5 million new residential gas connections per year between 2025 and 2030,in line with the pace observed during 2020-2023.This would result in about 22 million household connections by 2030.Similarly,the number of CNG filling station

307、s is projected to grow by the 2020-2023 average rate of 1 000 per year during third period,reaching just over 13 000 stations by 2030.However,with stricter enforcement of minimum work programme commitments and sustained domestic gas allocation to the residential and transport sectors,this rollout co

308、uld be significantly accelerated.The annual addition of new household connections could double,reaching to 31 million by 2030,while the deployment rate of new CNG stations could grow by 75%,achieving the governments target of 17 500 stations by the end of the forecast period.These developments could

309、 add an incremental 3.8 bcm/yr of natural gas demand by 2030.In the commercial sector,where LPG is widely used despite often being costlier and less convenient than piped natural gas,the transition to gas could further drive demand.With the continued rollout of CGD infrastructure and incentives supp

310、orting fuel conversion,commercial LPG use could be entirely replaced by natural gas by 2030,adding another 3.6 bcm/yr of demand.In total,this accelerated uptake of natural gas across the residential,transport and commercial sectors could add another 7.4 bcm/yr of gas demand by 2030.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Ind

311、ia Gas Market Report Chapter 5.Domestic gas production outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|44 Chapter 5.Domestic gas production outlook Indias upstream sector is dominated by the state-owned ONGC,Oil India and private companies led by Reliance Industries(in partnership with BP).Total net gas production sto

312、od at 35 bcm in 2023.Domestic supplies meet around 50%of the countrys gas demand.State-owned ONGC and Oil India are the leading operators in the key Mumbai offshore,Assam,Tripura and Cambay basins.A significant portion of their production comes from nomination blocks awarded to these companies.Nomin

313、ation blocks are specific areas granted to national oil companies without competitive bidding,primarily before the implementation of the New Exploration Licensing Policy(NELP).While many of these fields have been producing for decades,the companies have effectively managed decline rates.We estimate

314、that in 2024,nomination blocks across all basins accounted for more than 60%of Indias gas production.Natural gas production through 2030 Historically,the Mumbai offshore and the Assam,Tripura and Cambay onshore basins have been major contributors to gas production in the country.Some of the fields i

315、n these basins have been producing gas since the 1960s.In the early-2000s,Reliance discovered the Dhirubhai 1 and 3 gas fields in the KG-D6 block of the deepwater Krishna-Godavari basin.However,production from the KG-D6 fields peaked at less than 70 mcm/d during 2010 due to reservoir issues before h

316、eading into terminal decline,falling short of the planned peak of 88 mcm/d.Indias total gas production peaked at around 50 bcm in 2010 but declined 40%over the following six years.To boost domestic gas production,the government has provided several incentives since 2016,including a seven-year royalt

317、y holiday for deepwater and ultra-deepwater blocks,concessional royalty rates and fiscal incentives for the early monetisation of fields.Additionally,the government has streamlined various project approval processes to improve the ease of doing business in the gas sector.In 2016,key changes to gas p

318、ricing for undeveloped deepwater and high pressure-high temperature fields enabled the second phase of Reliances and BPs KG-D6 project and ONGCs KG-D5 Cluster 2 development to reach final IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 5.Domestic gas production outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|45 investme

319、nt decisions(FID).These projects have progressively come online and ramped up production since 2020.After nearly a decade of decline and stagnation,domestic gas production returned to growth in 2021.This growth is underpinned by production from the Reliance-BP deepwater fields located in the KG-D6 b

320、lock off Indias east coast.The three fields R Cluster,Satellites Cluster,and MJ are expected to produce a combined 85 bcm over their lifetime.These fields accounted for nearly 25%of Indias total net production of 36 bcm in 2024.As a result,Indias total gas production has increased by nearly 30%betwe

321、en 2020 and 2024.Growing output from CBM projects,which were granted full marketing and pricing freedom,has also marginally contributed to Indias production recovery since 2020,although total CBM production remained under 1 bcm in 2024.In 2024,the government introduced a 20%increase in gas prices fo

322、r new wells and workovers in legacy fields supplying APM-priced gas to priority sectors.While this policy is contributing to increased investments by national oil companies operating these fields,the incremental supplies are only expected to offset base declines in coming years.The pipeline of major

323、 gas field development projects remains limited.Between 2024 and 2030,we expect only moderate growth in domestic gas production.This growth will be driven by increasing onshore production from CBM and discovered small fields.Key CBM projects include Reliances,Essars,ONGCs and GEECLs developments in

324、West Bengal,Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh,where drilling continues for further ramp up.Additionally,several DSF projects,particularly in the Mumbai offshore basin,are anticipated to come online by early 2028.Offshore production is set to increase thanks to additional supplies from ONGCs deepwater KG-

325、D5 project between 2025 and 2030.However,offshore(and overall)gas supply growth will be tempered by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGCs Mumbai offshore fields.IEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 5.Domestic gas production outlook Ou

326、tlook to 2030 PAGE|46 Annual natural gas production in India,2015-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Data reported on a calendar year basis.Source:IEA analysis based on PPAC data.Upside potential for domestic natural gas production Further growth in domestic gas production is possible if demand can be unlocked

327、 in Indias relatively disconnected northeastern region.In recent years,the Assam and Tripura basins have contributed nearly 47%of Indias onshore production and 13%of its total gas supply.According to the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons(DGH),these basins hold a combined risked undiscovered in-pla

328、ce hydrocarbon resource potential of 1 874 MMtoe.Indias national oil companies are well-positioned to increase supply from these basins,contingent on further economic and infrastructure-led development unlocking regional demand.However,significant supply growth in the northeast is unlikely to materi

329、alise before 2030.Additionally,in early January 2025,ONGC selected BP as a technical service provider to increase oil and gas output from the Mumbai High fields over a 10-year period.The initiative targets a 60%increase in oil and gas production relative to the current baseline.If successful,this de

330、velopment could provide further upside to our production forecast in the latter part of the decade,with material contributions expected only after 2030.Further growth in domestic production can be unlocked through additional fiscal and gas pricing reforms.Transitioning to complete pricing freedom fo

331、r all fields 051015202530354045bcmOnshoreOffshoreIEA.CC BY 4.0.India Gas Market Report Chapter 5.Domestic gas production outlook Outlook to 2030 PAGE|47 as recommended by the government-appointed Kirit Parekh Committee in 2022 would be the most potent incentive.At present,not all fields benefit from

332、 full marketing and pricing freedom.Gradually extending this to all projects would encourage incumbents to increase output and allow market dynamics to match supply and demand more effectively.Diversifying the operator mix could also enhance Indias long-term production prospects.For over a decade,ex

333、ploration activity has been dominated by a handful of experienced companies,with limited participation from international explorers.This lack of diversity has contributed to the absence of large-scale oil and gas discoveries.According to the DGH,Indias unrisked in-place hydrocarbons potential stands at 41 billion toe.Engaging a broader set of operators,including international exploration and produ