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1、In 12 months therenewables market hasmoved but governmentshave notTripling global renewables is the single biggest action the world can takefor the climate this decade.An analysis of 2030 renewables targetsshows that,while renewables markets are surging,governments havenot updated renewables ambitio

2、n in the lead-up to COP29.Published date:12 November 2024Lead author:Dr Katye AltieriOther authors:Oya Zaimoglu,Dave Jones1ContentsExecutive SummaryChapter 1 Current global renewable target outlookOnly eight countries have updated their 2030 targets in the last 12 months2030 targets fall short in al

3、l regionsChapter 2 Solar and wind target outlookSolar market has moved,but governments have notWind targets align with market forecasts,but both fall short of triplingChapter 3 Storage target outlookBattery storage is the fastest-growing clean energy technology on the marketConclusionSupporting Mate

4、rialsAcknowledgementsAboutThis report analyses national 2030 renewable capacity targets for 96 countries and the EUas a bloc.These countries collectively account for 96%of the worlds renewable capacity,95%of global electricity sector demand and 94%of global power sector emissions.Nationaltargets are

5、 sourced from national strategy or plans,executive orders,official projections,orcredible third-party studies and can be found in Embers 2030 Global Renewable TargetTracker.National targets are up to date as of 24 October 2024.To calculate an estimatedglobal target,we have adjusted the target to acc

6、ount for the missing 4%of globalrenewable capacity.2Highlights7,238 GW 4 GW3,758 GWSum of 2030 globalrenewable capacity nationaltargets at COP28.Increase in the sum of theworlds 2030 targets in thelast 12 months.Gap between the currentsum of national ambition for2030 and what is needed fora global t

7、ripling.3Executive SummaryNational renewables targets fallshort of market forecasts and aglobal triplingOne year since the COP28 agreement to triple global renewable capacity,national targets still only aim for a collective doubling of capacity by2030.This is despite booming market forecasts that sh

8、ould giveconfidence for higher ambition.Tripling renewables is the single largest action to cut emissions this decade and keep the1.5C goal within reach.At the UNs COP28 climate change conference in December 2023,world leaders reached a historic agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030

9、.The International Energy Agency(IEA)and International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA)both show that a global tripling of renewables to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 is the optimalpathway to keep 1.5C within reach.In the IEA Net Zero Scenario,over 90%of the renewablecapacity growth by 2030 is expected t

10、o be from solar and wind,with the former quintuplingand the latter tripling as compared to 2022.The NZE Scenario also has storage capacityincreasing sixfold to provide the flexibility needed to support a tripling of renewables.Thisreport analyses how national targets for renewables have changed sinc

11、e COP28 andincludes a new assessment of national storage targets.These targets are assessed in thecontext of rapidly changing renewables markets.401National targets still only aim for adoubling of renewable capacityA year after the global goal to triple renewables was reached at COP28,thecollective

12、sum of national targets has only increased by 4 GW.The currentsum of 2030 national targets from 96 countries and one region is 7,242 GW,up from 7,238 GW at the end of 2023.This is a doubling of 2022 capacity,which was 3,379 GW,leaving a gap of 3,758 GW to achieve a global tripling.A regional analysi

13、s shows that all regions are falling short of the requiredambition needed for a global tripling,considering each regions startingpoint and the fact that some need to contribute more than others based on1.5C aligned IPCC scenarios.02Solar targets fall far short of solarforecastsSolar deployment conti

14、nues to exceed predictions with 593 GW expected tobe installed in 2024.This is 29%higher than last year,while 2023 saw an87%increase compared to 2022.BNEF projects that by 2030,solar capacitywill reach 6,640 GW,more than the 6,101 GW required to align with a globaltripling.The current sum of 2030 na

15、tional targets is only 3,011 GW,wellbelow what the market predicts as possible.In 31 of 55 countries analysed,recent and forecast solar additions indicate that there is more than enoughsolar capacity expected by 2030 to meet targets.Therefore,targets can berevised upwards to reflect the rapid growth

16、 in solar markets.03Battery additions are growing butstorage targets are yet to followBattery storage additions increased 136%from 2022 to 2023,in part due todeclining costs and increased efficiency.BNEF and IEA agree that batterystorage will increase almost 10 x from 2023 to 2030,from 85 GW to just

17、under 800 GW.Currently,only 30 countries have national storage targets,totalling 283 GW,falling significantly short of the 1,500 GW needed to alignwith a global tripling.5Renewable energy markets are moving fast,especially solar and storage,with recorddeployment in 2024 and forecasts for even bigger

18、 additions to come.However,governmentsare moving much slower with only eight countries updating national renewable targets,totalling just 4 GW increase in national targets globally.There has been little increase instated national ambition from COP28 to COP29.Next years COP30 marks the halfway pointo

19、f this decade,and an opportunity to set more ambitious targets in the 2025 NationallyDetermined Contributions(NDCs).6Year after year,renewables growth continues to exceed expectations.Prices arefalling,markets are surging and technological efficiency is improving.Whatsmissing are high ambitions and

20、confidence from countries-national targets areoutdated and should be updated to reflect that a tripling is now within reach.COP29 presents an excellent opportunity for leaders to support a storage goal tosupport the global tripling of renewables.Dr.Katye AltieriGlobal Electricity Analyst,Ember“This

21、Ember report highlights that the renewables industry can deliver the scalerequired to address the climate challenge,if the right policies are in place.However,ambitious national targets,combined with long term energy plans andenabling frameworks,are essential to unlocking the full potential of thist

22、ransition.Now is the time for governments to capitalise on the current marketmomentum with policies and actions that further accelerate progress towardsmeeting the tripling goals.The future energy winners will be those that seize thispresent opportunity.”Bruce DouglasCEO,Global Renewables Alliance7C

23、hapter 1 Current global renewable target outlookNational renewable targets havenot been updated since COP28Over 130 governments pledged to triple global renewables capacity to11,000 GW at COP28 in December 2023.Since then,only 4 GW has beenadded to the sum of national targets.The International Renew

24、able Energy Agency(IRENA),the International Energy Agency(IEA),and the global agreement by 133 countries at COP28 are all aligned that tripling renewablescapacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 is required for a 1.5C pathway.They show that over90%of the renewable capacity growth would be from solar a

25、nd wind,with wind capacityrising threefold and solar capacity fivefold,from 2022 to 2030.The sum of 2030 national renewable targets in December 2023,during the time of COP28was a doubling of renewable capacity,from 3,379 GW in 2022 to 7,238 GW in 2030.Emberanalysis at the time highlighted that if co

26、untries took stock of their policy landscapes,rate ofrenewable deployment and the renewable capacity in the pipeline,more ambitious yetachievable targets for 2030 could be developed.However,only eight countries have updatedtheir targets in the last 12 months.The sum of renewables targets assessed he

27、re isconsistent with the recent IEA COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge stocktakingreport,which assessed targets and plans in 150 countries,and found that by 2030,globalrenewables capacity will be 2.2 times 2022 levels.Since COP28,renewable markets,particularly solar and batteries have continue

28、d to surge.Indeed,if all current policies and market developments are considered,as outlined in the IEAmain case forecast,renewable capacity is expected to increase 2.7 times by 2030 comparedto 2022,with the accelerated forecast projecting a 2.9-fold increase by 2030.8Only eight countries have updat

29、ed their 2030targets in the last 12 monthsThis report finds that 2030 national targets,one year after COP28,have increased by a nettotal of 4 GW,bringing the updated total to 7,242 GW.The eight countries that updatedtargets are all in the EU and did so through the National Energy and Climate Plans(N

30、ECPs)process,although 14 have submitted final NECPs.These updates were minor as the priortargets were part of draft NECPs and the new targets are adjustments made in the finalNECPs.9The targets analysed here come from the Ember 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker,which currently tracks data from 96

31、 countries and one region(the EU)representing 96%ofglobal renewable capacity and 95%of electricity demand.The EU region and 67 countrieshave explicit targets,identified clearly in national strategy or plans,executive orders,legaltexts and policy proposals nearing approval.There are 14 countries with

32、 implicit targetssourced from official projections or credible third-party studies based on current renewablesupport policies and net-zero targets.Although implicit targets are not legislative or legaltargets,they act as a proxy for current ambition for renewables in the absence of an explicittarget

33、.There are two countries with derived targets that are estimates for 2030 based onexplicit targets for other years.There are a further 13 countries with no identifiable target.Embers 2030 Renewable Target Tracker provides detailed information on targets,sourcesand confidence levels by country,enabli

34、ng comparisons across regions and economicgroups.The combined 2030 targets of the countries analysed currently do not meet the benchmarkof a global tripling.Of the 96 countries tracked,83 have renewable capacity targets for 2030.These countries account for 89%of global electricity demand.The 13 coun

35、tries with noidentifiable targets are Austria,Azerbaijan,Brunei Darussalam,Democratic Republic ofCongo(DRC),Iran,Iraq,Kazakhstan,Kuwait,Mongolia,Russia,Syria,Togo and Uganda10accounting for 5.4%of electricity demand.The remaining 120 countries,which account for5.5%of electricity demand,have not been

36、 investigated for this target tracker.The lack of updates for renewable targets is likely tied to structural factors,including theelection timings and governance cycles.Many countries,like China with its five-year cycle,align policy updates with these timelines.Major elections in the UK,US,and India

37、 in 2024may have influenced the pace of updating stated ambitions.However,the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)in 2025 present acritical opportunity to solidify the global goal of tripling renewable capacity.These NDCs,operating outside of national political cycles,offer a unified m

38、echanism for settingambitious targets across countries within the same timeline,providing an important signalthat progress toward tripling is on track.As we are halfway through this decade,it is crucialfor countries to make strong commitments.While national targets reflect individualambitions and en

39、ergy policies,a planned and coordinated expansion of renewables and theassociated clean energy flexibility is essential.This approach can help prevent inefficienciesand potential curtailment that could arise from chaotic or unplanned growth.2030 targets fall short in all regionsA global tripling doe

40、s not mean that every country is required to achieve a tripling ofcapacity.If a countrys renewable capacity is close to zero and they triple their renewablescapacity,the increase in renewables is not significant.Whereas some countries are beyondthe point that tripling renewable capacity is realistic

41、 or needed.A recent Climate Analyticsreport on Tripling renewables by 2030:interpreting the global goal at the regional levelassessed how much renewables need to be built across different regions using the latest1.5C aligned IPCC scenarios.These regional allocations(what is needed for a tripling),ar

42、ecompared to the regional sum of national targets(the sum of government ambitions),and torecent IEA renewables forecasts for 2030(a market and policy-based indication of what isexpected to happen in each region).MENA,Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasia have the biggest relative shortfallThe sum of 2030 n

43、ational targets in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA),Sub-SaharanAfrica,and Eurasian regions have the biggest relative shortfalls compared to what ClimateAnalytics suggests is required to align with a global tripling.These regions have the smallest11expectations in total,in part because many cou

44、ntries within these regions have yet to beginbuilding solar or wind at scale.The sum of national targets in the MENA region is 116 GW,which is 77%short of the 500 GWneeded by 2030 to align with a global tripling.In total,10 countries in the MENA region wereanalysed,representing 88%of the regions ele

45、ctricity demand.Out of them,six have targetsand four-Iran,Iraq,Kuwait,and Syria-do not.The IEA Renewables 2024 reports main case2030 forecast of 149 GW for the MENA region exceeds the sum of national targets.In 2022,several countries,including Algeria,Iran,Iraq,Libya,Kuwait,Qatar and Oman,sourced le

46、ssthan 1%of their electricity from solar and wind.According to the IEA World Energy Outlook2024,solar PV will account for over 85%of the regions renewable expansion this decade.The sum of national targets in Sub-Saharan Africa is 90 GW,which is 70%short of the 300GW needed by 2030 to align with a gl

47、obal tripling.11 countries were analysed in this region,representing 70%of the regions electricity demand.Five of these,including the DemocraticRepublic of Congo(DRC),Togo,Uganda,the United Republic of Tanzania,and Rwanda haveno renewables target yet.The IEA Renewables 2024 reports main case forecas

48、t projects 146GW capacity for this region by 2030.The report also highlights that renewable capacitygrowth could be 34%higher in Sub-Saharan Africa in the accelerated case scenario(176 GW)due to growing electricity demand and significant untapped renewable potential.Manycountries sourced less than 1

49、%of their electricity from solar and wind in 2022;these includeAngola,Cameroon,the DRC,Republic of Congo,Gabon,Mozambique,Nigeria,Sudan,Zambia and Zimbabwe.Many countries around the world face financial and logistical challenges,making it essentialto facilitate development in high-potential countrie

50、s through suitable financing and de-riskingmechanisms.Africa alone accounts for one-fifth of the global population and has huge solarpotential and yet the region currently attracts just 3%of global energy investment.TheNairobi Declaration calls upon the international community to provide support req

51、uired toraise the share of renewable energy financing to 20%by 2030 and contribute to increasingAfricas renewable generation capacity to at least 300 GW by the same year.The sum of national targets in the Eurasia region amounts to 146 GW,falling short by 57%ofthe 340 GW required by 2030 to meet the

52、goal of global tripling.A total of 14 countries in theregion were analysed representing 98%of the regions electricity demand;of those Russia isthe only country with no renewables target identified.The IEA Renewables 2024 reportsmain case forecast estimates 127 GW of renewable power for this region b

53、y 2030,which islower than the total of current national targets.However,the accelerated scenario predicts143 GW,which is close to the sum of current national targets.According to the report,12Eurasia could install 52%more renewables in the IEA accelerated case scenario byovercoming challenges such a

54、s slow grid infrastructure expansion and high financing costs.Many countries in the region sourced less than 1%of their electricity from solar and wind in2022;these include Azerbaijan,Kyrgyzstan,Russia,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.The sum of national targets in the Latin America and the Ca

55、ribbean region is 368 GW,whichis 50%short of the 730 GW needed by 2030 to align with a global tripling.A total of sevencountries were analysed representing 81%of the regions electricity demand and all havetargets.The IEA Renewables 2024 reports main case forecast projects 545 GW capacity forthis reg

56、ion by 2030.Asia and the OECD have the biggest absolute shortfallFrom an absolute GW perspective,Climate Analytics shows that Asia and the OECDcountries are responsible for 80%of the required capacity additions this decade.Asia needs13to slightly more than triple 2022 renewables capacity,with a 3.6x

57、 increase according toClimate Analytics,and the OECD needs to triple(3.1x).Tripling renewables globally requiresreaching at least 11,000 GW by 2030,and the Climate Analytics report assumed thatrenewables need to reach 11,500 GW by 2030.As such,the absolute gaps for the OECD andAsia region are slight

58、ly higher than they would be if 11,000 GW was used as the benchmark.The sum of current national targets in the OECD region is 2,905 GW,which is 1,385 GW shortof the 4,290 GW required by 2030.A total of 33 OECD countries were analysed representing99.9%of the regions electricity demand.Austria is the

59、only country with no renewablestarget yet.The sum of national targets in Asia is 3,359 GW,leaving them 1,991 GW short of the 5,350GW needed by 2030.The IEA Renewables 2024 reports main case forecast for Asiacombined with the forecast for China is 6,135 GW by 2030,well above the sum of targetsand the

60、 regional allocation of a global tripling.A total of 19 countries were analysedrepresenting 97%of the regions electricity demand.Among them,Azerbaijan,BruneiDarussalam,Kazakhstan,and Mongolia have no identifiable targets.The combined national targets are currently insufficient in every region to ach

61、ieve the globalgoal of tripling.However,the market-based IEA main forecasts for renewables exceed thecombined national targets in all regions except Eurasia,where only the accelerated forecastreaches the sum of targets.Interestingly,as per IEA projections,Asia is the only regionwhere the tripling go

62、al can be met or even surpassed.This highlights that not only is therean ambition gap in setting national targets,but also an implementation gap(at least outsideof Asia)such that renewable deployment must increase across most regions.14Chapter 2 Solar and wind target outlookSolar and wind targets fa

63、ll shortof tripling and market forecastsOver 90%of the renewable capacity growth in this decade is expected tobe from solar and wind.A tripling of global renewables capacity by 2030means a tripling of wind capacity and a fivefold increase in solarcapacity.Solar is growing exponentially while wind is

64、 growing linearly.Wind and solar capacity wererising in concert until 2019,when solar overtook wind.2023 saw record additions for bothsolar capacity and generation.Solars recent rapid capacity growth has surpassed allexpectations,positioning it at the forefront of the clean energy revolution.A short

65、fall in windcapacity is concerning as wind has higher generation potential;the same amount of windcapacity can produce twice the electricity generation of solar.Below,national 2030 targetsfor solar and wind are analysed in the context of what is happening in each of the markets,highlighting the disc

66、onnect between the rapid pace of market changes and the slowresponse of governments in updating their targets.15Solar market has moved,but governmentshave notThe global solar market is experiencing unprecedented growth,defying even the mostoptimistic expectations.The IEA World Energy Outlook(WEO)202

67、4 forecast for 2030 solarcapacity is 24%higher than 12 months ago in the WEO 2023,which was 56%higher than theWEO 2022.Expectations now are that by 2030 capacity will almost align with what isneeded for a global tripling.According to the IEAs market update in June 2023,global solarPV manufacturing c

68、apacity is projected to reach 1,100 GW by the end of 2024,which is morethan sufficient to meet the needs of the IEAs NZE Scenario.Solar panel prices have droppedsignificantly,even more than expected based on the learning curve,making solar energy thecheapest form of new electricity capacity in many

69、regions.16Solar deployment continues to exceed predictions,with Ember estimating that 593 GW ofsolar will be installed globally this year,29%more than last year,following an impressive 87%surge in 2023.This rapid rise means that annual solar additions need to grow at a modest2%per year from 2025 to

70、2030 to meet the capacity needed to align with the IEA NZEScenario for a global tripling.Solar forecasts for 2030 are now aligned with a tripling,but national targets fall far shortSolar forecasts for 2030 are now aligned with the global tripling goal.Projections indicatethat solar capacity will not

71、 only meet but slightly exceed the more than fivefold increaseneeded in the IEA NZE scenario.Forecasts suggest that by 2030,global solar capacity will bealmost six times that of 2022.However,the combined 2030 national solar targets set by countries currently amount to3,011 GW,only 2.5 times the 2022

72、 capacity.This represents half of the increase needed to17align with the global goal of tripling renewables to 6,101 GW and falls short of the forecasts,which indicate a potential rise of up to 6,640 GW between now and 2030.Solar targets for 31 countries are set below what is projected to be builtIn

73、 many countries,recent solar deployment and forecasts have already exceeded what isrequired to meet existing targets,suggesting that solar ambitions could be substantiallyrevised in the upcoming 2025 NDCs,to better align with the solar market growth.Out of the55 countries monitored in the IEA Renewa

74、ble Energy Progress Tracker and the Ember 2030Global Renewable Target Tracker,31 are projected to have solar capacity in 2030 thatexceeds their current 2030 targets.18Wind targets align with market forecasts,butboth fall short of triplingA tripling of global renewables capacity by 2030 means a tripl

75、ing of wind capacity.In the IEANet Zero Scenario,wind triples from 901 GW in 2022 to 2,742 GW in 2030.Ember analysedwind targets from 70 countries and the EU as a bloc,which together account for 99%of19current global wind capacity.National wind targets set the world on track for 2,157 GW ofwind capa

76、city by 2030,which is more than double the capacity(2.4x)compared to 2022.However,there remains a gap of 585 GW between the total of current national targets andthe global goal of tripling wind to 2,742 GW.Forecasts from the IEA,BNEF,and GWEC allagree that global wind capacity in 2030 will reach aro

77、und 2,100 GW,a value similar to thesum of national targets.However,this is primarily achievable due to the large wind additionsforecast in China.Although it only accounts for 37%of global wind targets,China isexpected to install over 50%of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030.China isoverachi

78、eving on its target and is projected to almost triple wind capacity from 2022 to2030.This means that wind in the rest of the world in aggregate is projected to less thandouble(1.9x)to 1,058 GW by 2030 according to BNEF.These forecasts are significantlybelow Embers assessment of national targets,whic

79、h sum to 1,357 GW.Essentially,there isnot only a wind ambition gap but also an implementation gap.Wind must play its part in a global triplingWind has an important role to play in meeting electricity generation needs associated withthe global tripling of capacity.Solar contributes more than half of

80、the 11,000 GW of20renewables capacity in the global tripling,while wind only contributes a quarter.But wind hasa higher capacity for electricity generation than solar,meaning 1 GW of wind provides twiceas much electricity as 1 GW of solar.As a result,although their capacity contributions aredifferen

81、t,wind and solar contribute similar amounts to the 2030 renewables generation(31%and 36%,respectively).Practically,this means that for every 1 GW that wind falls short of theglobal tripling,then 2 GW of solar must be added to generate the same amount of electricity.It is also important to note that

82、wind and solar work well together to provide electricitythroughout the day,with wind peaking in the morning and evening and solar at midday,aswell as seasonally with wind peaking in winter and solar in summer.Due to the lengthy lead times for wind and the necessity of obtaining permits,policy andreg

83、ulatory frameworks are even more crucial for wind than for solar,with national targetsserving as a significant signal to the market.Investments in grid and transmissioninfrastructure,and actions to streamline permitting could signal confidence for increasingambition on wind.The rapid growth in key m

84、arkets,especially China,and the upwardrevisions of forecasts in key regions,indicate that with the right combination of policy,regulatory and financial support,rapid and large-scale wind growth can be enabled.21Chapter 3 Storage target outlookBattery additions are growingrapidly,but no country yet h

85、as arealistically ambitious storagetargetAs the share of wind and solar grows,storage must grow too.Storage iskey for harnessing the power of wind and solar providing short-termflexibility to electricity systems.Wind and solar generation can surpassdemand in certain hours in some places.Being able t

86、o shift that powerto where and when it can be used through clean flexibility solutions suchas battery storage presents an enormous opportunity.The UN COP29 climate conference in November 2024 may be a pivotal moment for energystorage.The latest COP presidency letter published on 17th September expre

87、sses the desireto agree on a global goal to increase energy storage capacity six times above 2022 levels,reaching 1,500 GW by 2030.The IEA NZE Scenario update published in 2023 has 1,200 GW of installed stationary batterystorage,which is an upgrade from the original NZE Scenario in 2021 that had 590

88、 GW,drivenin part by the sharp decrease in battery storage costs and the increase in technologicalefficiency.The total storage capacity in the IEA NZE Scenario is 1,500 GW,with the additional300 GW coming from pumped hydro.This is consistent with the recent G7 global storagetarget of 1,500 GW.22Batt

89、ery storage is the fastest-growing cleanenergy technology on the marketAccording to BNEF,battery storage additions were a record-setting 45 GW in 2023,up froman until-then record-setting 18 GW in 2022.China,the EU,and the US collectively accountedfor nearly 90%of the capacity added in 2023.Batteries

90、 have seen dramatic cost reductions in recent years.Lithium-ion battery prices havedeclined from USD 1,400 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to less than USD 140 per kilowatt-hour in2023,one of the fastest cost declines of any energy technology ever.23Battery forecasts project capacity will increase almost

91、10 x from 2023 to 2030Pumped hydro is currently the largest source of energy storage,with 142 GW in 2023compared to 85 GW of battery storage.But utility-scale and behind-the-metre battery storageare expected to account for 90%of the overall storage growth out to 2030.The recent IEAWorld Energy Outlo

92、ok 2024 STEPS scenario projects battery storage to increase 10 x from 85GW in 2023 to 853 GW in 2030.This is consistent with a recent BNEF forecast of 776 GW ofbattery storage in 2030.The battery market is growing rapidly,the World Energy Outlook2024 forecast is 55%greater than the World Energy Outl

93、ook 2023,which projected only 552GW of battery storage in 2030.Although forecasts are more optimistic each year,they stillfall short of the 1,200 GW of battery storage capacity installed by 2030 in the IEA Net ZeroScenario.Only 30 countries have storage targets and they fall far short of a tripling

94、aligned goalOf the 96 countries assessed in this analysis,30 have some form of national storage target.The 2030 storage targets total 284 GW,falling short by 1,216 GW of the 1,500 GW global24storage target called for by the G7 and the COP presidency,and 492 GW short of the BNEFmarket forecast for 20

95、30.Storage targets include different technologies and some countries have more than onetechnology specified.In total there are 19 battery storage targets,followed by 12 pumpedhydro storage targets,two hydrogen storage targets,and one ammonia storage target.Sevencountries have a generic storage targe

96、t that does not specify technology.25Recent battery storage additions are already more than enough to meet the global sum ofstorage targets.Battery additions were up 136%in 2023 as compared to 2022,and at 45 GWare already greater than the 21 GW per year needed to meet 2030 targets.To meet the 2030IE

97、A NZE Scenario,storage additions need to continue to rise by 32%per year,from 45 GW in2023 to 314 GW in 2030.26ConclusionSolar and storage markets areleading the way,an increase innational target ambition mustfollowNational targets are not being updated to keep pace with marketdynamics or the urgenc

98、y needed to achieve a global tripling by 2030.Assessments of national targets indicate that governments are targeting just over a doublingof renewable capacity by 2030.The ambition gap between targets and a global tripling hasremained almost unchanged in the past 12 months.The IEAs 2024 World Energy

99、 Outlook shows increased optimism for reaching a globaltripling as compared to the 2023 World Energy Outlook,with the estimated global renewablecapacity up 13%from last year.The Stated Policies Scenario projects 9,768 GW capacity in2030,taking into account existing policies.The Announced Pledges Sce

100、nario,whichincludes all energy and climate targets,is more optimistic and estimates 10,918 GW,in linewith the BNEF forecast of 10,300 GW by 2030.Forecasts that take into account all existingpolicies and market dynamics agree,and are more optimistic in suggesting that a tripling isalmost within reach

101、.This highlights that countries are not considering the market trends,their own energy-related policies,standards,programs,and projects or announced pledgeswhen setting their targets.Increasing national targets in line with market developments is important for signallingpolicy support.However,target

102、s alone cannot achieve the necessary progress to triplerenewables,they must be supported by robust policy mechanisms.IRENA,the GlobalRenewables Alliance and the COP29 presidency released a report on Delivering on the UAE27Consensus:Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doub

103、lingenergy efficiency by 2030,which outlines key recommendations for enabling the transitionincluding strengthening international cooperation,scaling up finance,and modernising andexpanding infrastructure such as grids.Batteries are another key supporting feature in thetransition,along with other cl

104、ean flexibility solutions.A tripling of renewables capacity as outlined in the IEA NZE Scenario relies on a tripling ofwind and a quadrupling of solar capacity to provide 15,247 TWh of generation in 2030.Ahigher solar to wind ratio in reaching the tripling means less generation,as a GW of solarprodu

105、ces roughly half the generation of wind.If developments in wind capacity installationscontinue to stagnate,installed renewable capacity might need to surpass a tripling to providethe generation needed.This is exacerbated if electricity demand grows faster than expected,an issue raised in the 2024 Wo

106、rld Energy Outlook,as higher than expected demand meanseven more renewables are needed to generate electricity.The IEA Renewable Energy Progress Tracker accelerated case forecast is the mostoptimistic with 10,779 GW expected by 2030.The accelerated case has frequently beencloser to reality than othe

107、r forecasts,and for solar the accelerated case still may not beoptimistic enough given the rapid growth in recent years.Each year that renewables growthexceeds expectations,the annual additions required to triple capacity becomes moreachievable.The analysis in this report highlights that if countrie

108、s take stock of their policy landscape andwhat is currently happening in renewable markets,a more ambitious and yet achievable setof targets for 2030 could be developed.Some countries are starting to increase ambition inthe run-up to COP29.For example,on 21 October 2024,the Turkish Ministry of Energ

109、y andNatural Resources revealed a 2035 roadmap for renewable energy.Although 2030 targetsare not mentioned in the roadmap,it is indicated that renewable installed capacity will growfour-fold from the current capacity.The 2025 NDC process presents an ideal opportunity tosolidify this ambition and clo

110、se the gap between where national targets are,and what isneeded to meet or exceed a global tripling goal.28Supporting MaterialsAcknowledgementsAuthorsKatye Altieri,Oya Zaimoglu,Dave JonesContributorsUfuk Alparslan,Richard Black,Sarah Brown,Tom Harrison,Sam Hawkins,ChelseaBruce-Lockhart,Aditya Lolla,

111、Rashmi Mishra,Shabrina Nadhila,Ruchita Shah,Jivan ZhenThiru,Ardhi Arsala RahmaniCover imageAerial view of Solar panel in VietnamCredit:Quang Ngoc Nguyen/Alamy Stock Photo Ember,2024Published under a Creative Commons ShareAlike Attribution Licence(CC BY-SA 4.0).You are actively encouragedto share and adapt the report,but you must credit the authors and title,and you must share any material youcreate under the same licence.