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1、1 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects Quarterly Report Q4/2024 2 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects Quarterly Report(Q4/2024)A report produced for the European Travel Commission by Tourism Economics Brussels,February 2025 ETC Market Intelligence Report 3 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects(Q4/2024)All ri

2、ghts reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted,provided the source is given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible websites,this should be done via a link to ETCs corporate

3、 website,referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the European Travel Commission.Data sources:This report includes

4、 data from the TourMIS database,STR,IATA,Eurocontrol,UN Tourism,Lighthouse and MMGY TCI Research.Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.Published by the European Travel Commission Rue du March aux Herbes,61,1000

5、Brussels,Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email: ISSN No:2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics(an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group.Cover:First snow at Strbske pleso,Slovakia.Winter nature,Christmas Scenery Image ID:1574020996 C

6、opyright:kovop 4 Foreword Looking at Europes tourism performance in 2024 we recognise the sectors remarkable resilience considering the challenges that continue to shape its trajectory.Despite economic pressures,geopolitical uncertainties,adverse weather conditions,and the evolving dynamics of consu

7、mer behaviour,European tourism has demonstrated strong resilience and the ability to adapt and remain robust.Nevertheless,headwinds faced in 2024 are expected to continue into 2025 calling for strategic planning,adaptation and innovation within the sector in the years to come.Latest data has shown t

8、hat travellers are increasingly prioritising value-driven experiences,a key trend seen in the growing demand for travel off-season and to destinations perceived as more affordable.This value-hunting behaviour reflects consumers direct response to high travel costs partly driven by high services infl

9、ation.Recent ETC research on intra-European travel sentiment,provides further insights,revealing that travel costs remain the main deterrent for European travellers(19%).Similarly,the latest results of the ETC Long-haul Travel Barometer indicate that,almost half of respondents(46%)who are open to in

10、ternational travel but not to Europe,cited“high costs”as the main deterrent to visit the region.Eastward,Chinese outbound travel remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels,despite high recovery expectations set for 2024.The slow recovery from this market highlights the critical role air connect

11、ivity and accessibility play in fostering tourism rebound.In contrast,transatlantic travel from the US has played a key role in sustaining momentum during Europes post-pandemic recovery,however increased economic uncertainties driven by the new Trump administration may introduce new challenges in th

12、e year ahead.As we look toward 2025,the tourism industry will continue to navigate an increasingly complex landscape and heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.This highlights the critical need for resilient tourism strategies to allow destinations to prepare for rather than react to any c

13、risis that emerges.Jennifer Iduh Head of Research&Insights European Travel Commission(ETC)5 European tourism:Trends&prospects (Q4/2024)Table of contents Executive summary.6 1.Tourism Performance Summary 2024.9 2.Global Tourism Forecast Summary.13 3.Recent industry performance.14 3.1 Air transport.14

14、 3.2 Accommodation.16 4.Key themes.19 4.1 Special focus:Risks and opportunities to the long-haul travel outlook.19 4.2 The value of European tourism.21 4.3 Risks.23 5.European travel sentiment tracker.25 6.Key source market performance.29 7.Origin market share analysis.39 8.Economic outlook.51 Appen

15、dix 1.57 Appendix 2.58 Appendix 3.59 6 Executive summary A positive year end for European tourism amidst heightened uncertainty European travel demand continued its growth trajectory into the last quarter of the year,with foreign arrivals up 6%on 20191.While the regions travel performance remains st

16、rong,consumers seem to favour destinations offering good value for money or opting for shorter stays due to elevated travel costs caused by high services inflation.Adverse weather conditions also disrupted key tourism hubs2 impacting recovery in several destinations in the last quarter of the year.O

17、verall international tourist arrivals to Europe are projected to end 2024 increasing by 2%compared to 2019 levels,driven primarily by short-and medium-haul travel.However,long-haul travel to Europe continues to lag and is expected to remain 5%below 2019 largely due to the slow recovery from Asia/Pac

18、ific,particularly China.Looking ahead,2025 is expected to be a year of heightened uncertainty due to ongoing geopolitical tensions,economic challenges,and rapidly evolving consumer travel behaviour.Foreign visits to European destinations,2024 year-to-date Towards the end of the year,several Southern

19、/Mediterranean destinations,including Serbia,Portugal,Greece and Montenegro showed a more modest pace of growth in arrivals following a strong summer period.In arrival terms,Iceland(+14%)stood out as the fastest growing winter tourism destination with increased solar activity attracting visitors to

20、see the Northern Lights.Performance across Central/Eastern Europe(-7%)remained subdued compared to other subregions.Foreign arrivals remained largely unchanged in Q4 compared to the previous quarter.However,notable exceptions were observed in Latvia,improving from-21%to-19%and Finland shifting from-

21、16%to-14%.Europes hotel performance holds strong at the end of 2024,amid a value-driven shift in travel Europes hotel performance is strong in the global market,with ADR and RevPAR growth matching or surpassing the top performers,Middle East&Africa.Growth in occupancy rates has increased from 1.3%to

22、 1.6%compared to the previous quarter,mirroring the strength of the shoulder months and the winter season.ADR growth,however,1 Based on data reported by destinations on TourMIS for Q4/2024.Date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination 2 Including France,Spain,Germany,and the UK Source:TourMIS 7 declined slight

23、ly compared to last quarter(from 4.6%to 4.4%),reflecting a shift in consumer behaviour favouring value-driven travel compared to last year.RevPAR rose 6%over the same period in 2023.Global hotel performance Visa-free entry plays a key role in influencing Chinese travellers destination choice Through

24、out 2024,expectations for a strong recovery of the Chinese outbound market did not materialise.Travel demand from this market has mainly focused on regional travel with fewer long-haul trips,especially to Europe.This trend is influenced by reduced flight availability from European airlines to Greate

25、r China.This is caused mainly by geopolitical factors as European carriers face further constraints due to required route changes to avoid Russian airspace,impacting connectivity and travel patterns.Declines in arrivals from China are,on average-39.6%below pre-pandemic levels across all reporting de

26、stinations,with over half of them still 40%below 2019.Sharpest declines were recorded in destinations in Northern,Western and Central/Eastern Europe.Serbia3 was the only destination reporting growth in both arrivals(+7%)and overnights(+48%)from China over 2019 levels supported by relaxed visa polici

27、es.This resonates with most recent data from ForwardKeys which highlights the strong performance of the Chinese market in visa free destinations such as Malaysia,Singapore,and the UAE which are seeing growth of+41%,+26%,and+14%respectively compared to their performance in 20194.Outbound travel from

28、the US to Europe has been fundamental during the post-pandemic recovery,with Americans enjoying a more favourable US$/Euro exchange rate.However,there is heightened uncertainty under the new Trump administration as rising inflation risks could reduce household disposable income potentially translati

29、ng into less spending on international travel.In the last quarter of the year,twenty-two out of twenty-seven reporting destinations posted growth in US arrivals over 2019,with Trkiye(+153%),Portugal(+91%),Lithuania(+67%)and Montenegro(+49%)registering fastest growth.3 Serbia represents a small share

30、 of total arrivals from China to Europe 4 Data from 13th January to 16th February 2025 012345678910Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-Dec year-to-date,%change year ago8 Outbound trips recovery from China by region destination(%rel to 2019 levels,3mma)Europes tr

31、avel recovery has remained strong in recent years.However,we continue to face significant geopolitical challenges,economic uncertainties,and increasing concerns about climate change and the impact tourism has on the environment.As we move into 2025,global travel will continue to adapt to these shift

32、ing dynamics.To navigate these changes,it is key to offer value-driven experiences that attract travellers while keeping destinations accessible,enjoyable and supporting local communities.As the travel landscape evolves,we must prioritise sustainable growthensuring that destinations remain vibrant w

33、ithout overwhelming their infrastructure or local communities,said Eduardo Santander,CEO/Executive Director of the European Travel Commission(ETC).Jennifer Iduh(ETC Executive Unit)With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Committee -120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-2

34、0Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24APAC excl.HK&MacaoHK&MacaoEuropeAmericas%relto 2019 levels,3mmaSource:Tourism Economics9 1.Tourism Performance Summary 2024 Summary European international travel growth continued into the final quarter o

35、f 2024,adding to the confidence that the region is firmly set to exit this prolonged period of travel recovery.According to the latest data from TourMIS,European arrivals were up 6.3%on 2019 levels and nights 5.9%above,based on data from reporting destinations largely to November-December.Growth is

36、stronger across both metrics compared to the previous quarter,suggesting travel in the shoulder season(September-October)and into the winter period remained robust.Improvement is also clear relative to 2023 with strong annual growth of 6.7%for arrivals and 4.8%for nights.Faster growth in arrivals su

37、ggests a slight slowdown in the average length of stay at a collective level.However,a few destinations such as Italy and Monaco have reported the opposite.Foreign visits and overnights to select destinations More than half(66%)of the reporting destinations saw either arrivals or nights ahead of whe

38、re they were in 2019 based on data mostly to November and December.Following a strong summer-season,a number of Southern and-30-20-10010203040SerbiaMaltaNetherlandsPortugalDenmarkTrkiyeNorwayIcelandGreeceLuxembourgUKSpainItalySloveniaSwedenMontenegroBelgiumBulgariaFrancePolandCyprusAustriaCroatiaSwi

39、tzerlandHungaryCzechiaGermanyMonacoRomaniaSlovakiaFinlandEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,51.8%(N)Switzerland,-0.3%(A),-0.2%(N)Latest data from the TourMIS platform confirms that both arrivals

40、 and nights to Europe are still up on 2019 levels by 6.3%and 5.9%respectively(based on data to November-December in most destinations).Travel momentum continued throughout 2024 with arrivals up 6.7%on 2023 and nights up a more modest 4.8%.Faster growth in arrivals suggests the aggregate average leng

41、th of stay within destinations is starting to decrease,but this does vary across both sub-regions and destinations.Iceland emerged as a popular destination once again moving into the winter period,boosted by favourable climate conditions that allowed for greater visibility of the Northern Lights whi

42、ch is a key tourism attraction.It likely also benefited from some travel that had been postponed from the start of the year due to volcanic activity.Southern/Mediterranean Europe had a quieter year end compared to some other destinations,following a very strong summer season.Montenegro stood out wit

43、h some slip in arrivals,pushing it back below 2019 levels.Adverse weather conditions including flooding,snow and multiple storms impacted air travel over the last 3-4 months of the year,affecting many key tourism hubs,including France,Spain,Germany and the UK.The announcement that land checks will b

44、e lifted for tourists arriving by road/rail to Bulgaria and Romania at the start of the new year is encouraging news for the region which is still lags in the recovery following covid.10 Mediterranean destinations had a softer end to the year,including Portugal,Serbia,Greece and Montenegro,which was

45、 the only reporting destination with arrivals down on 2023,perhaps a result of tourists going elsewhere after an influx over the last couple of years.More modest growth was reported in nights,but to a lesser extent,with nights remaining above 2019 levels at 6.4%.Furthermore,both Serbia and Greece sa

46、w arrivals growth weaken since Q3,however,they are still up considerably on 2019,by 28.9%and 13.7%respectively.However,some destinations within the sub-region such as Italy bucked the trend with arrivals(5.9%)and nights(10.0%)further ahead of 2019 levels towards the end of the year.The Northern Ligh

47、ts is a key natural attraction that appeals to tourists looking for a winter holiday.Iceland has benefited from raised solar activity,sometimes referred to as the solar maximum,which increases the likelihood and visibility of the Lights.Seeing the Lights is not guaranteed,and it is a risk that touri

48、sts take when booking a trip and the cost of the risk is now higher as prices have risen.But the greater likelihood of getting to see the Lights in late 2024 appears to have contributed to strong growth to Iceland over the last few months.Arrivals from Germany,the Netherlands and Italy contributed t

49、o this growth among the reporting destinations,with some further positive contribution to arrivals from the UK.Luxembourg was another small destination to see a marked improvement on last quarter,with arrivals rising to 11.6%above 2019(up from 3.7%).Visitor numbers are likely to have benefited from

50、improved perceptions of value-for-money,and research throughout 2024 has continued to point towards this as a key consideration for tourists.But the length of trips spent in Luxembourg this year,compared to 2023 are slightly shorter as arrivals(6.2%)growth outpaces that of nights(5.1%).This could ha

51、ve an implication on the economic value of tourism if this trend continues into 2025.Performance among Central and Eastern European destinations varied considerably towards the end of 2024.The recovery in both arrivals and nights in Slovakia worsened over the period of August-November,falling to-13.

52、0%and-19.1%respectively,with all months consistently lower than in 2019.In contrast,Latvia which has had the challenge to offset the drop in Russian tourists with visitors from elsewhere has continued to improve.Despite continuing to lag behind most other destinations arrivals and nights are now aro

53、und 2%higher than in the previous quarter.Foreign visits and overnights to Europe by sub-region From a regional perspective,based on volume data available on TourMIS,nights are growing ahead of arrivals on average across Northern European destinations,up 10.7%on 2019 levels.Nights(-1.0%)are also out

54、performing arrivals(-4.6%)in Western Europe,which has yet to recover to 2019.A stronger recovery in nights than arrivals could indicate that tourists are starting to stay longer on holiday within this region and could imply greater tourism revenues.On the other hand,arrivals volumes are growing fast

55、er than nights in Southern/Mediterranean Europe and Central/Eastern Europe as a whole.This suggests that tourists are visiting for shorter times within destinations here,compared to what they did in 2019 and in some cases,possibly spending less.-20-15-10-5051015Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern/

56、MediterraneanEuropeCentral/Eastern EuropeArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsNote that data in TourMIS does not include every country and in Central/Eastern Europe,this also does not include data for Russia and Ukraine 11 Pa

57、rt of the slower recovery in some destinations from September-October onwards could be attributed to disruptions to air travel towards the end of 2024.Adverse weather conditions ranging from flooding,storms and snow all contributed to the higher levels of flight delays compared to in 2019.This affec

58、ted airports across the region,including France,Germany,Spain and the UK.Volume of flights delayed in Europe*due to weather(000s)The immediate impact of the flooding that hit Spain in late October and into November is evident in the arrivals data at a province and city level.A number of areas were a

59、ffected by these(including Andaluca),although the city of Valencia was hit particularly hard by these adverse weather conditions.Arrivals growth to the province dropped off in November(4.2%)and December(-6.3%)and in stark contrast to the rest of the year when arrivals growth outpaced Spain as a whol

60、e.The city of Valencia saw a sharper fall on last year in the last two months with growth falling by-18.2%and-11.5%and represented a decrease of 26,511 tourists during this period compared to the same time in 2023.Going forward,the city has started to recover with many tourist attractions open,but t

61、here is still a way to go.Although peak season for the city is still a number of months away,tourists have already started looking for their next destination and this could have an impact on visitor levels later in the year.Number of tourists arriving into Spain and Valencia,2024 year-to-date 257146

62、82384424844110100200300400500600700800900SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember20192024Source:Eurocontrol *Europeis defined as Eurocontrol area-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSpainProvince of ValenciaCity of ValenciaSource:National Statistics Institute/TourMIS%yearNum

63、ber of flights delayed,000s 12 Summary performance 2024,year to date%change relative to 2019 and 2023 Count ry%YTD v s.2019%YTD v s.2023t o m ont h%YTD v s.2019 YTD%v s.2023t o m ont hAust ri a0.6%3.9%Jan-Nov0.8%1.6%Jan-NovBel gi um3.2%2.7%Jan-Sep5.2%2.7%Jan-SepBul gari a4.5%4.8%Jan-NovCroat i a0.0%

64、2.6%Jan-Dec0.7%0.6%Jan-DecCyprus1.6%5.1%Jan-JanCzechi a-4.8%9.3%Jan-Sep-7.7%8.5%Jan-SepDenm ark16.7%4.3%Jan-NovEst oni a-18.5%11.7%Jan-Nov-17.1%9.0%Jan-NovFi nl and-16.2%11.1%Jan-Sep-13.8%8.7%Jan-SepFrance3.0%0.8%Jan-Dec3.8%1.2%Jan-DecGerm any-5.8%8.2%Jan-Oct-5.6%5.6%Jan-OctGreece13.7%9.2%Jan-OctHun

65、gary-1.9%15.8%Jan-Nov-4.8%10.5%Jan-NovI cel and13.9%2.2%Jan-DecJan-DecI ri sh Rep.6.7%I t al y5.9%1.2%Jan-Nov10.0%3.7%Jan-NovLat vi a-18.9%14.0%Jan-Nov-26.7%9.6%Jan-NovLi t huani a-25.6%6.1%Jan-Sep-26.0%3.5%Jan-SepLuxem bourg11.6%6.2%Jan-Nov12.9%5.1%Jan-NovM al t a31.7%23.4%Jan-Jun19.7%15.7%Jan-JunM

66、 onaco-7.2%1.4%Jan-Nov-5.7%3.6%Jan-NovM ont enegro-2.8%-0.2%Jan-Nov6.4%-5.1%Jan-NovNet herl ands5.9%4.6%Jan-Nov19.3%4.1%Jan-NovNorway11.4%Jan-Aug14.8%10.6%Jan-NovPol and3.4%10.2%Jan-Oct-3.0%7.0%Jan-OctPort ugal17.8%6.1%Jan-Oct14.6%4.8%Jan-OctRom ani a-11.7%13.6%Jan-Nov-7.1%10.4%Jan-NovSerbi a28.9%12

67、.3%Jan-Nov51.8%9.2%Jan-NovSl ovaki a-13.0%3.2%Jan-Nov-19.1%3.1%Jan-NovSl oveni a7.5%8.5%Jan-Nov8.8%6.9%Jan-NovSpai n11.8%10.7%Jan-Nov8.1%7.2%Jan-NovSweden6.8%10.2%Jan-NovSwi t zerl and-0.3%5.5%Jan-Oct-0.2%4.2%Jan-OctTrki ye16.6%7.1%Jan-NovUK4.0%11.0%Jan-Jun12.0%5.0%Jan-JunI nt er nat i onal Ar r i v

68、 al sI nt er nat i onal Ni ght sSour ces:Tour M I S(ht t p:/www.t our m i s.i nf o)and Vi si t Br i t ai n(f)denot es f or ecast pr ovi ded by m em berM easur es used f or ni ght s and ar r i val s var y by count r y.Avai l abl e dat a as of 22.01.202513 2.Global Tourism Forecast Summary Tourism Eco

69、nomics global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound basis in the following table.These are the results of the Global Travel Service(GTS)model,which is updated in detail three times per year.Forecasts are consistent with Oxford Economics macroeconomic outlook according to estimated re

70、lationships between tourism and the wider economy.Full origin-destination country detail is available online to subscribers.GTS visitor growth forecasts,%change year-on-year 2021202220232024202520212022202320242025data/estimate/forecast*defffdefffWorld13.7%102.6%36.9%13.3%12.9%12.4%106.3%37.9%13.7%1

71、3.1%Americas17.4%90.0%27.3%8.2%9.2%17.6%96.1%32.5%9.1%8.7%North America21.3%78.7%24.4%8.3%9.9%23.9%84.4%31.5%9.3%8.5%Caribbean56.0%53.2%18.2%7.5%6.7%46.2%92.5%19.9%8.1%11.6%Central&South America-24.1%208.1%43.5%8.2%8.8%-13.7%172.2%38.6%8.1%9.2%Europe27.4%91.8%19.1%8.8%10.0%24.2%99.4%20.2%9.3%10.7%ET

72、C+223.6%100.7%18.4%8.1%8.9%19.5%107.0%18.8%8.1%9.0%EU 2717.7%106.5%19.1%8.0%8.7%19.3%109.6%18.9%8.1%9.0%Non-EU72.1%45.4%19.2%12.3%15.5%47.0%60.4%26.3%15.2%18.3%Northern-5.7%203.8%17.7%8.2%7.9%-6.9%226.2%19.6%6.8%9.9%Western 4.8%93.6%22.0%3.1%7.4%30.7%83.2%17.4%6.8%8.5%Southern/Mediterranean59.5%89.5

73、%17.2%7.7%8.6%25.4%109.9%22.7%9.5%8.3%Central/Eastern 28.2%41.2%20.2%24.3%20.7%25.1%57.0%26.6%14.8%11.3%-Central&Baltic9.3%92.3%17.5%22.4%11.3%11.6%78.9%19.7%14.2%9.4%Asia&the Pacific-55.1%233.9%173.5%32.6%22.3%-51.4%199.2%177.9%34.6%22.6%North East-36.4%55.0%418.5%43.3%24.5%-54.8%89.5%373.6%44.6%27

74、.5%South East-87.6%1216.5%136.2%26.1%21.2%-67.5%419.4%107.5%23.9%17.0%South10.4%99.6%15.5%18.8%16.6%11.8%174.9%45.6%22.7%10.9%Oceania-80.1%827.9%93.1%18.2%19.5%-65.5%785.3%74.6%12.2%14.2%Africa26.6%89.3%37.1%13.8%12.1%5.2%99.5%41.8%15.1%14.5%Middle East18.9%157.8%39.3%8.6%14.1%50.6%130.8%29.3%3.3%13

75、.5%*Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows*Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations*data is the final historical numbers available.Estimates are using high frequency indicatorsThe geographies of Europe are defined as

76、follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Central&Baltic Europe is Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,and Slovakia;ETC+2 is all ETC

77、members plus Sweden,and the United KingdomSource:Tourism Economics based on GTS as of 17.12.2024Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Turkey;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbai

78、jan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine;Inbound*Outbound*14 3.Recent industry performance 3.1 Air transport Relative to pre-pandemic levels growth in European air passenger demand was h

79、indered in Q3 according to international revenue passenger kilometres(RPK)data,which were 0.1%lower compared to Q3 2019.International air passenger growth(%),Europe Regional Air Passenger Outlook:European air travel demand growth in July was weak at 0.2%,the Q3 decline was wholly due to a decline of

80、 1.6%in August.In July and as anticipated in the previous report,growth was weighed down by thousands of cancelled flights over a three-day period during this month as a result of the faulty update from CrowdStrike affecting its flagship product(Falcon).In August,growth in Europe looks to have been

81、partly stifled by capacity constraints with available seat kilometres(ASK)only 2.3%higher compared to the same month in 2019.This marked the slowest growing month of 2024 on an ASK basis(based on data to November)compared to 4.1%for 2024-to-date.But across the summer(July&August),it is likely that t

82、his slump was at least partially linked to several aviation strikes which took place in these months across several European countries including Ireland,Italy,and the UK.Although demand growth among European airlines fell into negative territory in August(based on the average spanning July-September

83、),growth swiftly rebounded in September.This highlights that demand in the region is clearly on an upward trajectory.November alone was 5.4%higher compared to 2019(and 9%higher compared to 2023).This implies a strong finish is on the cards for Europe in 2024.Elsewhere,African countries reported an u

84、pward tick in international air passenger demand from August onwards,with October emerging as a standout month with demand 9.1%higher compared to 2019.While growth was partly supported by a rise in capacity across the region,rising demand was a bigger driver in recent months.Demand exceeded supply a

85、nd consequently load factors for the region hit a record high in August(79.1%)and are on course to do the same on an annual basis(74.8%based on year-to-November data).Nonetheless,Africas capacity remains the least utilised of all regions as the only one expected to record annual load factor below 80

86、%in 2024.-100-80-60-40-20020Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24%change on 2019,RPKTotal3mth mavSource:IATA15 International monthly air passenger growth(%change)More recent flight data from Eu

87、rocontrol provides country level detail for Europe covering the entirety of 2024 and appears to confirm the strong end to the year based on analysis of the IATA data.The latest outturn illustrates mixed demand for European countries,with around half of reporting countries seeing more flights in the

88、last quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019,and the other half seeing less.For the region as a whole,the number of flights were 2.4%lower in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2019,despite a slight improvement towards the end of the year.This decline continues to be(as it was last quarter)partly sy

89、mptomatic of supply shortages across the industry for new aircrafts,and aircraft components and we are starting to see airlines such as BA announce changes to flight schedules because of this.Consequently,aircraft utilisation(i.e.,load factor)across Europe has been mostly tracking above that of 2019

90、 and is likely to continue rising.Airlines will need to carefully manage their fleets to maximise available capacity until supply side issues abate.Serbia experienced the fastest growth in flight volumes with 25%more flights in the final quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2019,much o

91、f which has been due to the continued expansion of routes and services by Air Serbia.Growth also ticked upwards by 9.2pp in Q4 compared to Q3.More routes are planned in 2025 from Belgrade to Shanghai,Olbia,Mykonos,Ibiza,and Florence.Greece recorded 23.7%more flights in Q4 2024 compared to the same q

92、uarter in 2019,with growth higher in Q4 compared to Q3.As alluded to in the previous quarterly report,Greece has been attempting to extend its tourism season into the shoulder months(September-October)to increase the resilience of the industry.If this leads to higher demand over this period,it may h

93、elp to alleviate some of the overtourism-related pressures felt at the height of the summer(July-August).Sweden reported the largest fall in flights,with volumes 25.6%lower in Q4 compared to Q4 2019.Further,this represented slower growth compared to Q3 by 7.3ppts and this decline was largely driven

94、by a fall in domestic flights.Scandinavian Airlines(SAS)cancelled or reduced flights from several Swedish airports in Q4 due to aircraft shortages.However,through a strategic partnership with Braathens Regional Airways(BRA),SAS intends to expand connectivity,with seven BRA aircraft operating on SAS

95、domestic network from Stockholm Arlanda Airport.This expansion,scheduled to roll out in January 2025 could support a return of domestic flight volumes.The Swedish governments decision to abolish 2018s aviation tax in 2025 could spur growth further,in both domestic and international demand.-15-10-505

96、101520AfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastN.America%change vs.2019,RPKAug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Source:IATA16 European air traffic by country,total flights arriving and departing(%change)3.2 Accommodation Global hotel performance largely had a strong end to 2024 with only occupancy in Asia

97、 Pacific and ADR in Europe reporting slightly weaker growth than last quarter compared to 2023.Furthermore,growth across all metrics was up on the year,including an improvement for US occupancy,which saw a decline over the first three quarters of the year.Overall,growth rates remained closer to more

98、 typical levels as the impacts of the pandemic have or are close to being fully realised in the data.Global Outlook:At a collective level,average growth across all regions for hotel performance metrics(occupancy,ADR and RevPAR)was up on last quarter,suggesting that on the whole,the hotel sector had

99、a stronger end to 2024 compared to the same period last year.The slower return of tourists to Asia Pacific continues to be reflected in both ADR and occupancy,with growth remaining below 1%.There has however been some improvement on last quarter,with RevPAR growth rising to 1.1%(up from 0.7%)and thi

100、s was solely driven by a rise in ADR(from 0.4%to 0.7%).Modest growth is aided by the gradual increase in outbound travel from China to Europe that is expected to continue into 2025.Americas saw a marked improvement in occupancy in the last three-months of the year,pushing growth from a-0.4%decline b

101、ack up to positive territory at 0.1%.Some of this improvement could be attributed to stronger demand in Central and South America which tend to experience better weather in September-December.Growth may have been stronger in North America without the US elections as well as tensions surrounding the

102、uncertainty of the Trump administration,as analysis suggests hotel performance struggled at times during November.Europe continues to show resilience and strength,with growth in ADR and RevPAR ahead or in line with performance in the Middle East/Africa.Compared to last quarter there is an increase i

103、n occupancy from 1.3%to 1.6%which may suggest a stronger autumn/winter period.In contrast,there was a slight slowdown in ADR(4.4%from 4.6%),suggesting value-seeking behaviour among tourists is more prevalent than in 2023 as tourists attempt to find value for money.In the Middle East and Africa,popul

104、ar tourist destinations such as Dubai and Saudi Arabia have lent to an increased occupancy rate from 1.3%to 1.8%.However,hotel pricing power has remained sticky across the region with a rise of just 0.1%in ADR.This could be due to continued geopolitical tensions,but with the decision of a ceasefire

105、between Israel and Hamas in January 2025 there may be expectations that rate will SerbiaGreeceCyprusMaltaCroatiaSpainTrkiyeTrkiyePortugalItalyHungaryPolandMontenegroSloveniaIrelandRomaniaSwitzerlandNetherlandsUKLithuaniaBelgiumFranceDenmarkNorwayLuxembourgCzech Rep.SlovakiaEstoniaAustriaFinlandGerma

106、nyLatviaSwedenTotal*-30-20-10010203040latest rolling 3 month average vs.same period 2019ppt improvement vs.previous rolling 3 month averageSource:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flights17 start to climb as the region regains market pricing power,however there is still much uncertainty.Global hotel per

107、formance Short-term rentals Europe reported a rise of roughly 9.2%in the supply of short-term rental units since November 2024,in absolute terms,this represents 369,000 additional units compared to the previous year.As of November,nearly 4.4 million short-term rental units were available for tourist

108、s year-to-date.However,since last quarter,with data from Lighthouse out to August,supply has fallen by 6.8%or in volume terms,by 321,000 properties.Consistent with our previous edition,the largest European country in terms of short-term rental supply remains France,and with just over 1 million prope

109、rties as of November 2024,short-term rental supply in the country grew by over 100,000 units YOY versus November 2023.This supply growth was driven by the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris,and it comes through in the data.With over 1.1 million short-term rental units in France as of August 2024,supply i

110、s down 93,000 units over the past 3 months.This is perhaps indicative of a broad downward trend in French short-term rental supply,as property owners who previously offered their homes as an Olympic rental remove their properties from the supply.This ultimately could drive French(and perhaps more sp

111、ecifically Parisian)short-term rental supply in the direction of previously stabilised levels.Time will tell,if this is a trend,a blip in the data,or a seasonal supply adjustment,and it is something Lighthouse will continue to monitor over the coming quarters.Short-term rental units across Europe,20

112、24,year-to-date to November 012345678910Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-Dec year-to-date,%change year ago0200.000400.000600.000800.0001.000.0001.200.000Source:LighthouseNumberof short-term rentals 18 While France is the European country with the most signifi

113、cant absolute decrease in short-term rental supply compared to data up to August(19%of Europes supply total reduction was due to decreases in French supply),it is worth noting that of all European countries with at least 4,000 short-term rental units,Germany,Cyprus and Switzerland were the only ones

114、 to experience growth in supply relative to August 2024-all other countries in this category saw a decrease in supply.This is consistent with the typical trend we see,with more homeowners offering their properties for rent over the summer-in 2023,there was a roughly 200,000-unit supply reduction fro

115、m August to November.In terms of ADR,Monaco,which recorded the highest ADR market in Europe in quarter 3,was surpassed by Iceland.In the year to November 2024,the average monthly median ADR for Iceland was 216,surpassing Monaco,which achieved an average monthly median ADR of 213 over the same time p

116、eriod.Monaco topped the ADR rankings in September,but Iceland outperformed Monaco in October and November to take the top spot.At a macro level,the Europe-wide average monthly median ADR in the year to November 2024 was approximately 112,which represents a YOY increase of approximately 9.7%from the

117、average monthly median ADR of 102.19 4.Key themes Summary 4.1 Special focus:Risks and opportunities to the long-haul travel outlook International arrivals to Europe are estimated to have ended 2024 2%ahead of 2019 levels,but this has been largely driven by short-and medium-haul travel.Arrivals from

118、long-haul source markets are set to be-5%below and a lot of this persistent weakness comes from the Asia/Pacific region and in particular China(-48%below).Travel activity within Asia/Pacific has largely been concentrated to short-and medium-haul destinations(Hong Kong,Macao and the wider region),rat

119、her than further afield.Supply-side issues relating to the availability of flights to long-haul destinations in Europe have played a role in this.Airlines had to react to the pandemic,but many airlines,and notably European carriers,have also had to adjust flight paths to avoid Russian airspace since

120、 2019.Outbound trips recovery from China by region destination(%rel to 2019 levels,3mma)-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24APAC excl.HK&MacaoHK&MacaoEuropeAmericas%relto 2019 levels

121、,3mmaSource:Tourism Economics Long-haul travel has remained a gap in the recovery of European travel,with arrivals from the Asia/Pacific region and in particular China still slow to come back in 2024.So far,travel from the region has been concentrated in short-and medium-haul destinations,but long-h

122、aul travel should pick up in 2025.A second Trump presidency poses an opportunity for European destinations to gain a greater share of Chinese travel next year,as it did during the 2017-2020 Trump administration,with potential similar impacts on other source markets according to implemented trade pol

123、icy.Arrivals from countries facing travel bans to the US will not have a material impact on European travel demand if Europe is chosen as an alternative long-haul destination,because they make up a very small share of total arrivals to the region.Outbound travel from the US is set to remain resilien

124、t as the slightly less favourable US$/Euro rate and higher inflation should be offset by stronger economic fundamentals and spending off the back of planned tax cuts.This is despite a minor fall in disposable income,highlighting the continued prioritisation of travel.Inbound spend to Europe has cont

125、inued to improve across many destinations towards the end of 2024,with Germany almost back to a full recovery.However,value-for-money remains a key consideration for tourists,with implications for destination choices,length of stay and in-destination spend.Costs remain a top concern for tourism busi

126、nesses,with financial factors continuing to be the biggest challenges for tourism.But they also see value-for-money as an opportunity for growth in the industry,alongside growth in domestic tourism and emerging sustainability trends.20 The second Trump presidency poses some uncertainty for the econo

127、mic and travel outlook in 2025.The immediate macroeconomic impacts from a second Trump term involve a short-term boost due to tax cuts.Under this,inflation is expected rise slightly faster and will weigh slightly on disposable income,which is now set to grow slightly slower at 2.4%(down from 2.5%bas

128、ed on Oxford Economics forecasts from October 2024).However,consumer spending will continue to rise on the year and tax cuts will favour high-income households which are more likely to travel long-haul to destinations,which includes Europe.However,the scale and reach of each of these policy effects

129、is highly uncertain.For Europe,this uncertainty will pose both risks and opportunities to firstly,the expected improvement in long-haul travel from the Asia/Pacific region and secondly,regarding the continued growth in travel demand from the US.Focusing on China as the largest source market in the r

130、egion for Europe,potential impacts on long-haul outbound travel can be initially assessed by looking back to Trumps first term in office.During this period,Europe gained a larger share of Chinese tourism demand,with growth in the share of Chinese outbound trips rising to 78.9%,up from 61.1%pre-Trump

131、.At the same time,the US saw shares growth fall to-4.2%during the first term,due to sentiment effects and some reduced air capacity between China and the US.Sentiment surveys throughout 2024 and the latest ETC long-haul barometer continues to suggest that safety is key factor in selecting a long-hau

132、l destination.Recent news articles have supported this,highlighting concerns over travel bans and visa restrictions in the US.If travel sentiment towards the US did materially impact bookings,then Europe is likely to be a beneficiary.This would provide an opportunity for destinations to take advanta

133、ge of higher travel demand.Based on previous reactions to a Trump presidency and the not-yet-fully-realised pent-up demand from China following the pandemic,Tourism Economics expects a similar difference in shares growth between Europe and the US over 2025-28.The difference is smaller than it was in

134、 the first-term,and we can put some of this down to the fact that the world has witnessed a Trump presidency once before,so somewhat know what to expect.Share of Chinese long-haul outbound travel(%)The displacement of tourists from the US to Europe is also likely to come from countries that are set

135、to face travel bans,as they did in Trumps first term.Countries facing a travel ban such as Iran,Libya,Syria and Venezuela did report weaker growth in arrivals to the US during 2017-2019 and simultaneously stronger demand for European travel.But the volume of tourists in total from these countries on

136、ly makes up around 1.3%of total arrivals to Europe(and an even lower share of US arrivals),so any impact on the region will be minimal,even if growth does increase strongly.There is a potential impact on outbound travel from the US,affecting Europe,which has largely relied on this long-haul market d

137、uring the recovery period following the pandemic.Costs have been key to the stronger growth in transatlantic travel volumes witnessed over the last few years as US tourists have enjoyed a more favourable US$/Euro exchange rate.But under this new Trump government,there is a greater upside risk to inf

138、lation and subsequently the disposable income of households.This is largely a consequence of the imminent tariffs expected-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%EuropeUS2010-16(Pre-Trump)2016-19(First-term exc.Covid)2025-28(Second-term)%share of China outbound trips growthSource:Tourism Economics21 to be imp

139、osed on many trading partners,affecting a wide range of industries which are anticipated to be significantly higher in total than in Trumps first term.The US$is expected to weaken slightly from current rates,but will remain strong,with less depreciation than in earlier forecasts.Higher costs associa

140、ted with long-haul travel may result in more domestic or short-haul travel choices.This has been reflected in the results of Tourism Economics Q4 Travel Industry Monitor Survey.When asked about the impact of the US presidential election on travel,more than two fifths of all respondents and almost tw

141、o thirds of US respondents confirmed that the outcome of the election has changed their view on the travel outlook.For both sets of respondents,the broad expectation was that inbound travel would be negatively impacted-both next year and in the medium term-while respondents expect stronger domestic

142、tourism over the next few years.This could mean that there some substitution between domestic and international travel among lower-income households,possibly impacting US outbound travel to Europe.The impact of higher costs and changes to the US$/Euro exchange rate will also need to be considered al

143、ongside the anticipated positive impacts on spending coming through via expected tax cuts.This lift to consumer spending is only expected in the short term and more skewed towards higher-income households.Further out,consumer spending is set to soften over 2027-28 as inflation picks up,driven partia

144、lly by tariff policies.Exchange rate,US$per Euro 4.2 The value of European tourism The latest estimate for 2024 suggests that tourists spent 7.8%more across Europe than they did in 2023.This equates to 705.4bn euros(nominal terms),driven by Western Europe alone which accounts for nearly three quarte

145、rs of total regional spend.Higher levels of inflation and increased demand for travel contributed to the increase.Inbound spend across selected European countries for 2024 up to September(dates vary by country)ranged from 92.9%above 2019 levels to just-1.5%below which is a notable improvement on the

146、 third quarter where the weakest outturn came in at-12.4%below.Inbound spend in Belgium saw the largest improvement across these selected European destinations,previously at-12.4%behind 2019 and now ahead by 8.4%.This was largely due to a strong end to the summer and into September from German and D

147、utch tourists and now makes Germany the sole destination still in catch-up rather than growth territory for inbound spend.However,it has continued to build on the albeit slow improvement seen earlier this year,now just-1.5%below 2019.1,271,141,081,081,041,061,071,070,900,951,001,051,101,151,201,251,

148、302010-162017-19202320242025202620272028US$per EuroSource:Oxford Economics2017-19:First-term excluding Covid 2025-28:Second-term 22 Inbound travel spend in selected European destinations(%change vs.2019)Encouragingly,growth remains strong for destinations such as Romania(60.9%)and Slovenia(19.6%),al

149、though growth is coming from a small base.For Romania,the stronger outlook in spending is likely due to a more favourable exchange rate relative to the Euro in 2024 than 2019.This is not the case in Slovenia,which uses the Euro and where arrivals from Europe have recently made up 88-91%of total inte

150、rnational arrivals.Tourism revenue growth in Slovenia has been due to higher average spending with limited growth in tourist arrivals.Tourism Economics Travel Trends Survey(TTS)captures the views of more than 4,000 respondents across eight key outbound tourism markets Australia,Canada,China,France,G

151、ermany,Italy,the United Kingdom,and the United States.The latest findings indicate that consumers are becoming more cost-conscious.This is sparking a wave of value hunting which presents new opportunities for destinations.Based on the latest travel data,the trend appears to be benefitting some small

152、er,“off the beaten track”destinations which are perceived to be more budget-friendly such as Montenegro and Albania.Furthermore,as some consumers pragmatically adapt their behaviour to save costs,there is evidence of faster travel growth during shoulder months in 2024,and notably for Mediterranean d

153、estinations which are traditionally skewed toward summer visitor activity.Other than travel being generally cheaper in the shoulder months,tourists may also prefer visiting at times where attractions are less overcrowded,and temperatures are more comfortable.However,travel costs remain elevated,part

154、ly influenced by sticky higher services inflation,a key challenge for consumers and the industry alike.Growing adoption of tourist taxes in popular destinations may also play a role in shifting travel behaviours,especially among those most sensitive to price changes.With many household budgets squee

155、zed,the implementation of a tourist tax may tip the balance for some destinations and lead to increased demand for destinations perceived to offer the best value for money.Survey results show that tourist taxes could be a financial barrier to travel as 41%of travellers oppose destinations charging a

156、 fee to help tackle overtourism and provide additional funds for tourism infrastructure improvements.There was greater resistance to tourism taxes among those who perceived themselves as financially worse-off compared to a year ago with 50%against them.This finding highlights the sensitivities of co

157、nsumer behaviour in relation to increased travel costs and reinforces the need for travel brands to promote both quality and value in their offerings.Decisions for cost conscious travellers could come in the form of changing to a cheaper destination or choosing to stick with the original choice for

158、a shorter stay.From a destination perspective however,a longer stay by tourists tends to provide greater spending and economic impact.Average length of stay data up to November 2024 shows that tourists visiting the Netherlands spend longer there than prior to the pandemic(up 15.2%).There is a notabl

159、e contrast in the average length of stay between neighbours Portugal and Spain relative to 2019,with Portugal lagging behind.This could possibly be cost-related as Portugal reported a faster rise in service sector prices in 2024(4.5%)than Spain(3.7%).-100102030405060702024 year-to-date,%change relat

160、ive to 2019 levelsSources:Haver Analytics*date varies(Jan-Sep)by destinationSerbia,92.9%23 Average length of stay in selected European destinations,2024(%change vs 2019)4.3 Risks The Tourism Industry Monitor(TIM)survey gauges industry professionals evaluation of the overall health of tourism globall

161、y,as well as its opportunities and challenges.Financial factors,which can be defined as the increasing cost of business,cost of accommodation and cost of flights remained a significant global tourism challenge in Q4.Combining the results of these into this encompassing factor,results show that 87%of

162、 respondents mentioned at least one of these as a key tourism challenge.Compared to the results from earlier in the year(83%in Q2),financial factors have been an increasing challenge for the industry on a global scale and look to continue into 2025.Top 4 key global tourism challenges Although the su

163、rvey is more heavily weighted towards US respondents,the percentage of those in Europe identifying financial factors as a key tourism challenge were very similar and with-2%to 3%within the results from the US.Key differences were in staffing issues,with a higher percentage in Europe seeing this as a

164、 challenge.There was however less of a concern over other challenges such as bureaucracy and regulations in Europe than the global average as there was significantly more concern from the US which can be put down to,the impending change in the government administration at the time of the survey.-12%

165、-7%-2%3%8%13%18%relativeto 2019Sources:Haver/National Statistics/Tourism Economics*date varies(Jan-Nov)by destination59%55%42%39%50%62%37%39%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Increasing cost of businessCost of accommodationStaffing issuesCost of flightsQ3 2024Q4 2024%reportedin top risksSource:Tourism Economic

166、s24 The trend in business tourism remains the most common opportunity for the tourism industry,from both a global and Europe perspective.Additional opportunities such as tourism infrastructure improvements and leisure events are seen as much greater globally than in Europe.Where Europe differs is th

167、at stakeholders in the industry are seeing more opportunities arising from increased domestic visitors to their destinations and growth stemming from sustainability trends among both businesses and consumers.25 5.European travel sentiment tracker E-Reputation trends on travel in Europe E-Reputation

168、data,gathered from the TRAVELSAT Sentiment Index by MMGY TCI Research,utilises social listening to assess destinations online perception.Information shared by differing media,consumers,companies etc.,on websites,forums,blogs&social networks is used.Net sentiment scores,ranging from-100 to+100,measur

169、e the balance between positive and negative sentiments to evaluate destination favourability.Value for Money and Sustainable Travel ratings are measured through sentiment scores derived of written reviews from 45 sources(e.g.,TripAdvisor,Google Reviews,B,etc.),utilising advanced sentiment analysis t

170、echnology to detect positive and negative sentiments towards specific concepts or topics,with ratings,ranging from 0 to 10.For a further explanation of these methodologies please see Appendix 2.Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024,the polarity of online social conversations regarding European trave

171、l stood at an average of 52 points(+10 pts.vs.Q3).Europes score continued to increase in October,achieving its highest score in 2024,after which sentiment dropped in November and December.The floods in Eastern Spain affected sentiment in November,while the attack on Magdeburgs Christmas market in Ge

172、rmany affected Decembers score.However,Europes score remained in first place in both October and November,only to fall very slightly behind the Middle East in December.Overall,Europe took the leading spot in global e-reputation scores in Q4 of 2024,holding at least 6 points more than all other world

173、 regions.Net sentiment score per world region,P12M Several key themes drove the positive sentiment on European travel in the fourth quarter.Festive traditions and celebrations stood out in online content,captivating travellers with a blend of seasonal charm and cultural richness.In October,Halloween

174、-themed activities shared online highlighted Europes ability to transform destinations into magical and spooky experiences.As an example,Paris hosted a standout event at Club Haussmannien,where over 900 costumed vampires and wizards danced the night away in a“haunted castle”setting.Family-friendly H

175、alloween events were also spoken about in travel blogs,such as Englands Castle Howard featuring a Pumpkin Trail and Germanys Europa Park enchanting visitors with its blend of cute and spooky decorations.As the season transitioned into winter,Christmas festivities took centre stage online.Strasbourg,

176、France,was celebrated as the Christmas Capital of the World,charming visitors with its iconic festive Christmas market.Switzerlands Grindelwald village also garnered attention in online conversations for its magical medieval architecture and cozy Christmas markets offering local crafts and foods.Off

177、ering a more unique experience,ancient traditions such as Krampusnacht in the European Alps and Mari Lwyd in Wales were showcased online,adding a folkloric dimension to the seasonal cheer.0102030405060Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24EuropeAmericasAfricaMiddle

178、EastAsia PacificQ42024Europe Q4 2024 average=52(+10pts.vs.Q3)Source:MMGY TCI Research26 Food-related content also made a strong impact within travel-related stories on Europe.One online conversation topic centred on Lisbon being crowned Best Culinary Destination in Europe at the World Culinary Award

179、s,praised for its innovative culinary scene.Novel events like AfroFlavors celebrated the citys diverse heritage,offering a taste of African history through food.Romania also stood out,with stories spotlighting growing appreciation for local,seasonal ingredients,including Black Angus beef and artisan

180、al smoked cheeses.Tuscany,Italy,added to this online narrative in November,combining nature and gastronomy during its autumn harvest season,which featured olives,truffles,and new wines.Another theme that came through in Novembers sentiment drivers was nature-based travel,with destinations like the C

181、anary Islands promoted as ideal winter getaways.The content praised the mild temperatures,allowing for hiking and whale watching.Travel bloggers seeking sport-filled voyages mentioned Chamonix,France,due to the thrilling climbing opportunities it offers paired with breathtaking mountain views.Lastly

182、,December saw a notable focus on green transportation initiatives online.The launch of the first direct train service between Paris and Berlin was celebrated as a milestone in promoting sustainable travel.Similarly,the Fehmarnbelt link between Denmark and Germany was highlighted as an infrastructure

183、 project that will significantly reduce travel time for both road and rail transport,reinforcing Europes commitment to eco-friendly connectivity.Negative online drivers of reputation were shaped by two primary topics,namely environmental disasters and security issues.The devastating floods in Easter

184、n Spain were among the most discussed topics online.Claiming over 200 lives,the disaster prompted significant criticism as a result of the perceived governmental mishandling of the crisis.Stories related to security were present online in November and December.The attack at Magdeburgs Christmas mark

185、et in Germany,which resulted in five deaths and over 200 injuries,was a particularly prominent story,leading to the temporary closure of many other Christmas markets across the country.Finally,violent clashes in Amsterdam following a football match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ajax in November were

186、highlighted,with more than 60 arrests reported.Focus on value for money from visitors written reviews Value for Money measures guests perception of the worth or quality an experience has in relation to its cost.The Value for Money sentiment score of European Accommodations and Attractions increased

187、to 8.45 in the fourth quarter of 2024(+0.26 points vs.Q3).Broken down by verticals,the score for Accommodations increased to 8.01(+0.31 points vs.Q3),while for Attractions it increased to 8.93(+0.19 points vs.Q3).Value for money sentiment scores per vertical 8,018,935,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,09,5Acc

188、ommodationsAttractionsSource:MMGY TCI Research+0.31 vs.Q3 2024+0.19 vs.Q3 2024Overall value for money score Q4 8.45+0.26 vs.Q3 2024 27 The five destinations receiving the most praise in terms of Value for Money in guests written reviews were San Marino,Latvia,Greece,Malta,and Estonia.Online stories

189、on these destinations suggest that they offer affordable dining,attractions,accommodations,or public transport.Some points in San Marinos favour that were shared in online stories regard its offer of historic attractions and museums with low entry fees,efficient transport,and the TuttoSanMarino Card

190、,which provides discounts on tickets,tours,and restaurants5.Similarly for Latvia,its capital often holds free music events on Dome Square and access to its UNESCO-listed Old Town,while Latvias national parks and beaches are easily reached by affordable train rides6.Destinations receiving the highest

191、 sentiment scores on the topic of value for money during Q4 2024 Focus on sustainable travel from visitors written reviews Sustainable Travel measures guests perception of environmentally and socially friendly practices taken by operators.The Sustainable Travel sentiment score of European Accommodat

192、ions and Attractions decreased to 7.61 in the fourth quarter of 2024(-0.23 points vs.Q3).Broken down by verticals,the score for Accommodations decreased to 7.56(-0.23 vs.Q3 2024),while that of Attractions decreased to 8.13(-0.27 vs.Q3 of 2024).5 Tiny nation,big spirit:How to experience the best of S

193、an Marino.Jan.13th,2025.https:/ 6 24 of the best affordable city breaks in Europe.Jan.17th,2025.https:/ 8,918,938,938,939,178,758,808,858,908,959,009,059,109,159,20EstoniaMaltaGreeceLatviaSan MarinoSource:MMGY TCI Research28 Sustainable travel scores per vertical In terms of guests written reviews o

194、n Sustainable Travel,San Marino,Sweden,Finland,Slovenia and Switzerland received the most positive comments.One factor to consider is that San Marino published a three-year tourism strategy focusing on improving accessibility and eco-friendly initiatives7.An online story listed San Marinos increasin

195、g focus on renewable energy,modernising public transport with electric vehicles,conservation,waste management and support of greener accommodation8.West Sweden committed to the“Stepping up Sustainability initiative”,working in public and private collaborations to minimise the tourism sectors environ

196、mental impact9.Destinations receiving the highest sentiment scores on the topic of sustainable travel during Q4 2024 7 The three year tourist programming,Oct.31st,2024.https:/ 8 Sustainability and green Initiatives in San Marino,April 13th,2023.https:/ Destination West Sweden:Sustainability Showcase

197、,2024.https:/sustainability- TCI Research-0.23 vs.Q3 2024-0.27 vs.Q3 20248,168,338,48,58,967,607,808,008,208,408,608,809,00SwitzerlandSloveniaFinlandSwedenSan MarinoSource:MMGY TCI ResearchOverall sustainable travel score Q4 7.61-0.23 vs.Q3 2024 29 6.Key source market performance Trends discussed in

198、 this section relate to the period January to December 2024,although actual coverage varies by destination.Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination,including absolute values,can be obtained from TourMIS(http:/tourmis.info).Key intra-European source markets For most source markets,dat

199、a suggest that travel remained strong into the late 2024 shoulder season(September-October).This is consistent with consumer value-for-money trends because it tends to be cheaper to travel during these months and a possible reaction to the high temperatures recorded in some sub-regions during peak s

200、ummer season(July-August).Smaller destinations enjoyed a notably strong end to 2024,driven by cheaper prices than comparable destinations elsewhere in Europe.Demand for popular winter destinations remained strong in many cases,for example in Iceland with strong growth in travel to see the landscape

201、and Northern Lights.German visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)-50-40-30-20-1001020304050CyprusSerbiaGreeceTrkiyeNetherlandsSloveniaDenmarkNorwayLuxembourgBelgiumMaltaCzechiaPortugalMontenegroIcelandCroatiaSpainSwedenAustriaFinlandHungarySwitzerlandBulgariaPolandMonacoSlovak

202、iaRomaniaEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Cyprus,50.7%Iceland recorded strong growth as a winter destination for tourists from several European source markets,including Italy,the Netherlands and Germany.Hig

203、her chances of viewing the northern lights due to the solar maximum event as well as possibly delayed trips from earlier in the year due to increased volcanic activity are possible reasons for the acceleration in demand.Visitor numbers to small destinations such as Serbia,Cyprus and Slovenia remaine

204、d ahead of 2019 levels in the latter part of the year.These appeal to those looking for less well-known destinations and greater value-for-money,while for some non-European source markets such as China,they offer ease of travel.Growth in nights far exceeds arrivals for many source markets,suggesting

205、 a longer length of stay in these destinations than larger comparable ones in Europe.For the majority of Europe,travel from China and Japan remains persistently slow to come back.Visa processes are a part of this,but reduced flight connections between Europe and Mainland China also play a role.Incre

206、ased travel options within Asia/Pacific have also contributed to more outbound short-haul travel than long-haul.Germany remains a destination that has yet to see the same volume of demand as 2019 for many source markets.Fewer flights and higher ticket prices are factors that are continuing to deter

207、international tourists,but the recovery is continuing,albeit more slowly than in other destinations.The US remains an important source of demand for European destinations,with most seeing arrivals ahead of 2019 towards the end of 2024.Destinations that have not seen a strong revival in American tour

208、ists are largely within Central and Eastern Europe,such as Hungary and Bulgaria.30 Iceland emerged as a growth destination in Q4 as arrivals from Germany jumped from being 1.7%below 2019 levels to 7.4%above.The opposite was the case for arrivals in Finland by German tourists,which saw values remain

209、below 2019 levels once again at-3%.Elsewhere in Northern Europe,Denmark(24.9%)and Norway(23.6%)both saw a stronger end to the year in terms of nights,with growth up on last quarter.Spain reported stronger growth across both metrics,but especially in terms of reported nights.In the year to August,nig

210、hts were 3.3%below 2019 levels,but then rose to 5.5%above in reporting to November,with strong growth in the traditional shoulder season.Nearly half of visits by German tourists were concentrated in the Balearic Islands,likely due to the more favourable climate at that time of year.Weaker consumer s

211、pending and confidence in Germany during 2024 has possibly encouraged households to travel in cheaper months while also avoiding the peak of overcrowding and higher temperatures.Despite the improvement,Spain is still experiencing slower growth than other destinations within Southern and Mediterranea

212、n Europe.However,the stronger growth reported by Cyprus,Slovenia and Serbia comes from a smaller base.Destinations within Central and Eastern Europe have had a mixed performance towards the end of 2024.While German arrivals to Estonia improved from-32.5%to-29.4%,Latvia remained relatively unchanged

213、at-32.8%.Elsewhere Romania moved slightly further away from recovery with arrivals now-19.1%and nights-17.6%relative to 2019 levels.However,with both Bulgaria and Romania fully joining the Schengen area as of January 1st,2025,there are some upside risks to the recovery moving forward for German tour

214、ists who undertake multi-destination trips.French visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)There continues to be a distinct split in the destinations chosen by French tourists based on year to date 2024 data.Destinations that are furthest from recovery to 2019 levels are within C

215、entral and Eastern Europe,with some apparent lingering impact on sentiment from the ongoing war in Ukraine.Despite an improvement in some countries towards the end of the year,this region is still significantly below the average for both nights and arrivals.Data suggests that French tourists have le

216、ant towards more tried-and-tested destinations such as Spain where arrivals are up 15.2%.Although the emerging trend for discovering less crowded and more unknown destinations such as Albania continues to grow,visitor volumes,in absolute levels are still very small relative to larger tourism hubs su

217、ch as Spain.Marketing efforts by Trkiye to attract French tourists is paying off,with arrivals up 23.5%on 2019 levels and reaching record levels in 2024.The Tourism Promotion and Development Agency continues to see further potential for growth from the French market which bodes well for growth going

218、 into 2025.Despite some concerns of a marked slowdown in arrivals to Cyprus based on the ongoing conflict nearby in the region,growth has only slowed to 198.3%,down from 217.2%last quarter(on a small base),and still above levels-40-2002040CyprusSloveniaDenmarkMaltaSerbiaGreeceNetherlandsTrkiyeNorway

219、SwitzerlandFinlandSpainSwedenMontenegroLuxembourgBelgiumPortugalMonacoIcelandGermanyAustriaCroatiaCzechiaPolandHungaryEstoniaBulgariaRomaniaLatviaLithuaniaSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Cyprus,198.3%(A)31 in the prior

220、year.But concerns over the impact on French tourist arrivals has decreased due to the recent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel.Air France started to expand its flight network in Q4,however this is not evident yet in data reporting to November.Increased flight connections from both Air Fra

221、nce and the lower-cost airline Transavia France will help to boost outbound international travel to European destinations including but not limited to Spain,Sweden,Trkiye and Portugal at the end of 2024 and into 2025.Italian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Iceland record

222、ed rapid growth from 78.5%to 109.5%relative to 2019 based on an additional four months of data to December,however this does represent a small share of total arrivals by Italian tourists.A key appeal of Iceland during winter 2024 was the solar maximum event which makes the Northern Lights more visib

223、le.Some tourists may also have delayed trips to later in the year following the volcanic activity early in 2024 that caused the repeated closures of the Blue Lagoon.Other Scandinavian destinations lagged Iceland in terms of growth but also had a strong end to the year including Denmark and Norway wi

224、th nights up 25.8%and 25.4%respectively,now ahead of Finland at 18.8%.Elsewhere,Austria,a typically larger winter destination for Italians saw an improvement on last quarter in arrivals,now-4.9%below 2019(up from-7.7%).The recovery in both nights and arrivals among reporting destinations tend to be

225、roughly in the same ballpark,with the exception of Serbia,the Netherlands and Romania.These have continued to report nights growth significantly ahead of 2019 levels ranging from 3.4%to 26.1%and arrivals down between-1%and-5.9%below 2019 levels.This suggests Italians are spending longer and generati

226、ng more revenue in these destinations.Both arrivals and nights to larger destinations including Austria and Germany have improved towards the end of the year,but still lag behind most other destinations in the region with arrivals-4.9%and-14.8%below and nights-6.1%and-15.5%below 2019 levels respecti

227、vely.Prior to August,nights spent in Slovakia were outperforming some other Central and Eastern European destinations,since then the recovery has deteriorated to 26.7%below,now only ahead of Lithuania(-33.6%)and Montenegro(-31.7%).-40-200204060IcelandTrkiyeMaltaCyprusSerbiaDenmarkNorwayPortugalSpain

228、FinlandNetherlandsSwedenHungaryCzechiaRomaniaBulgariaMonacoEstoniaSwitzerlandBelgiumPolandAustriaSloveniaLuxembourgGermanyLatviaCroatiaSlovakiaLithuaniaMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change year relative to 2019Iceland,109.5%(A)Trkiye,88.9

229、%(A)32 British visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Destinations in Southern and Mediterranean Europe including Trkiye(73.1%),Montenegro(38.3%)and Greece(28.3%)continued to attract UK tourists in the latter part of 2024 and past the height of the summer.This is potentially re

230、lated to the trends of value hunting and a growing desire to avoid overcrowding and higher summer temperatures.Elsewhere within the sub-region,growth in both arrivals and nights to Portugal from the UK continues to outperform Spain.Despite the overtourism protests held in various locations in both m

231、ainland Spain and the islands,as well as the flooding in Valencia,arrivals from the UK are now 1.6%ahead of 2019 levels,up from 0.4%last quarter.British travellers are not avoiding these popular destinations,but this does indicate some shift in behaviour with stronger growth in the shoulder season.T

232、he last few months have also seen the recovery in nights more on par with that of arrivals due to longer stays,moving into recovery territory at 1%from-12.1%previously.Some trips over the winter period were likely also disrupted by various storms and periods of adverse weather conditions affecting t

233、he operation of major airports in the UK,including Manchester,Liverpool John Moore,Heathrow and Gatwick.Some of these cancelled trips will likely be rebooked in the coming months and may support growth into 2025.Furthermore,cancellations to a number of long-haul flights from the UK could possibly re

234、sult in more intra-regional travel within Europe,possibly benefiting those destinations which still have not yet fully recovered.Dutch visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)-40-30-20-1001020304050TrkiyeSerbiaMontenegroGreeceDenmarkNorwayPortugalPolandRomaniaMaltaCzechiaSloveni

235、aLuxembourgCyprusSpainSwitzerlandLithuaniaEstoniaBelgiumAustriaGermanyIcelandHungaryFinlandCroatiaNetherlandsLatviaBulgariaMonacoSwedenSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTrkiye,73.1%(A)-30-1010305070LithuaniaIceland

236、SerbiaMaltaLuxembourgCyprusSpainPolandDenmarkPortugalNorwayFinlandSwitzerlandTrkiyeBelgiumSloveniaSwedenHungaryBulgariaAustriaMontenegroGermanyCroatiaRomaniaCzechiaMonacoSlovakiaEstoniaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 lev

237、elsLithuania,93.8%(A)33 Lithuania continues to report the strongest growth in both arrivals(93.8%)and nights(59.1%)from the Netherlands,despite growth slowing on Q3 and in stark contrast to the other Baltic states(Estonia and Latvia).It is still a relatively small destination,but the introduction of

238、 a direct flight between Amsterdam and Palanga earlier this year,along with the emerging trend for discovering new off-the-beaten track destinations may have supported growth throughout the second half of the year.Austria and Germany had a stronger end to the year,with an improvement across both met

239、rics with some continued clear preference for less expensive near-haul travel.Arrivals to both destinations are up 8.6%and 7.8%respectively,with a similar rate of growth in nights spent in Austria.In contrast,the performance for Belgium was slightly softer in recent months,however growth in both arr

240、ivals(15.3%)and nights(12.5%)still remains ahead of most other reporting destinations.Travel to these near-haul destinations may also indicate a shift away from flying.A proposal to cap the number of flights at Schiphol airport has the potential to limit the continued growth and recovery across dest

241、inations frequented by Dutch tourists over the coming year.A final decision on this proposal may be announced towards the end of Q1 2025.Non-European source markets United States visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Trkiye continued to report strong growth in tourists from th

242、e US towards the end of 2024,with volumes 152.6%ahead of the same time in 2019(up from 137.4%last quarter).American tourists have been drawn to the destinations nature and cultural offerings,which also reflects the travel trends towards less well-discovered locations that have emerged and set to con

243、tinue into 2025.Switzerland is another destination benefiting from this trend,as it is growing in popularity within American tourists with arrivals 43.2%and nights 39.5%above pre-pandemic levels.Despite growth lagging behind other destinations,Germany attracts a large volume of US tourists each year

244、 and has continued to report an increase in arrivals(2.8%)and nights(1.6%)in recent months moving further ahead of 2019 levels.Estonia is also behind the regional average in terms of growth,but a stronger end to the year has pushed both arrivals(1.1%)and nights(5.2%)into growth territory and ahead o

245、f 2019,a marked improvement on last quarter.Within Southern and Mediterranean Europe,US arrivals to Spain largely held steady in 2024 with growth relative to 2019 in excess of 28%,whereas the nights spent within Spain grew faster at 39.4%,suggesting US tourists are staying for longer periods of time

246、.Portugal remains a popular destination even as growth in arrivals(91.0%)and nights(92.3%)moderated.In contrast,growth in arrivals to Greece dropped off in recent months from 32.5%to 23.8%.-40-20020406080100TrkiyePortugalMontenegroLithuaniaSerbiaPolandSwedenSwitzerlandMaltaIcelandSpainFinlandNorwayD

247、enmarkLuxembourgLatviaSloveniaGreeceCroatiaAustriaMonacoBelgiumCyprusEstoniaGermanySlovakiaCzechiaRomaniaHungaryBulgariaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTrkiye,152.6%(A)34 Some of the moderation seen in destinations are p

248、ossibly connected to air traffic disruptions caused by Hurricanes Milton and Helene during September and October.Chinese visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)There has only been a minor improvement in Chinese arrivals and nights in selected European destinations towards the e

249、nd of the year.The average for arrivals across reporting European destinations has improved by just 0.8%to-39.6%below 2019 levels.For nights there has been a slightly stronger rise of 1.4%to-38%below pre-pandemic levels.This reflects the softer outlook for Chinese outbound travel to destinations out

250、side of the Asia/Pacific region reported throughout 2024.Visa-free entry is becoming a more important preference for Chinese tourists when selecting a destination and Serbia is one of the only European destinations which offers this.It is evident this is a key factor in its performance compared to e

251、lsewhere in the region.Both arrivals(6.8%)and nights(47.5%)remain up on 2019 levels,despite a softer outturn in recent months.Although this destination only represents a small share of total arrivals from China to Europe,unless preferences shift or more destinations reciprocate the unilateral visa-f

252、ree travel initiated by China,it is likely Serbia will continue to slowly increase its market size.Larger destinations for Chinese tourists,including Germany and Spain,reported slower tourism demand compared to the third quarter.For Germany,arrivals fell to-47.1%and nights to-38.6%below 2019 levels,

253、while arrivals to Spain edged further away from recovery to-7.2%.This may be related to some increased value hunting and preference for alternative destinations among Chinese travellers.In contrast,arrivals to Switzerland(-50.2%)experienced a slight improvement in the final few months of 2024 despit

254、e volumes remaining around half of what they were in 2019.Supply-side factors have been cited as a reason for the slow come-back of Chinese arrivals to Europe,with Switzerland being one of the destinations significantly affected by this.Flight volumes have dropped from around 20 direct flights betwe

255、en Zurich and Mainland China to now just three a week.However,an upside going forward is London Gatwicks expansion plans to improve connectivity between the UK and mainland China.This could help support arrivals to nearby European locations even if it does include a connecting flight.If successful,i

256、t may encourage additional airports within the region to follow suit.But the benefits to the wider region could be impacted by different visa requirements for Chinese visitors going to both the UK and mainland Europe.-80-60-40-2002040SerbiaTrkiyeHungarySpainRomaniaMontenegroMaltaPortugalIcelandPolan

257、dGermanySloveniaBelgiumCroatiaDenmarkSwitzerlandMonacoSlovakiaLatviaAustriaNorwayFinlandEstoniaSwedenLithuaniaCzechiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,47.5%(N)35 Japanese visits and overnights to select destinations(%chan

258、ge on 2019)Similar to China,Japanese tourists have reacted positively to destinations that offer visa free travel.Within Europe Serbia remains the key beneficiary of this.Although both reporting metrics are slightly weaker than last quarter,the data point towards Serbia experiencing a high average l

259、ength of stay among Japanese tourists which should add greater value to the economy.Among some of the more notable destinations for tourists from Japan,Trkiye continued to build on its recovery with arrivals rising 28.7%ahead of 2019 levels.For Montenegro,nights experienced a recovery of 25.9%.The d

260、ata for Germany and Austria highlight the growth opportunities for European destinations even if travel remains well below 2019 levels.Arrivals in these countries are still-46.9%and-59.6%below 2019 levels,but the annual comparison shows the other side of the story.Compared to where they were in 2023

261、,both destinations have reported a double-digit improvement.Indian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Serbia continues to be a fast-growing destination with tourists from the region,including those from India as well as for other source markets within the Asia/Pacific regio

262、n.While arrivals growth has dropped off in recent months,now just 1.4%ahead of 2019 levels,those that do arrive stay for significantly more nights(183.3%).Arrivals from India could possibly be weaker than those from China because Serbia ended visa-free entry with India in 2023.-100-80-60-40-2002040S

263、erbiaTrkiyeMontenegroSpainFinlandSwitzerlandIcelandPortugalGermanyRomaniaBelgiumMonacoDenmarkHungarySlovakiaCzechiaAustriaSloveniaNorwaySwedenPolandCroatiaEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019-70-50-30-10103050

264、70MontenegroSerbiaTrkiyePortugalPolandIcelandMonacoSpainSlovakiaCroatiaFinlandRomaniaGermanyAustriaNorwayBelgiumHungarySwitzerlandDenmarkCzechiaLatviaSwedenArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Montenegro,209.3%(A),274.3%(N)Serbia,18

265、3.3%(N)Latvia,-88.0%(N)36 Montenegro is another small,yet emerging destination for Indian tourists which also requires a visa,but has consistently reported triple-digit growth over this year.It is possible that tourists are choosing to visit new destinations,as Serbia benefitted from opening up to I

266、ndian travellers immediately following the pandemic and Indian tourists may now be exploring some neighbouring countries including Montenegro.Western European destinations such as Austria and Switzerland have had a stronger end to 2024.Arrivals and nights to Austria have seen an upgrade on last quar

267、ter,with growth now-16.9%and-5%below 2019 levels,respectively.For Switzerland,both metrics are now sitting-19.6%lower than in 2019.Arrivals to both Trkiye(45%)and Portugal(37%)continue to stand out ahead of a lot of other European destinations,despite softer data in recent months.Changes to visa req

268、uirement for immigrant workers in Portugal,set to largely affect Indian workers could be contributing to this,but even so,growth remains solid.On the other end of the scale,the recovery in nights spent in both Latvia(-88%)and Sweden(-68.6%)has improved slowly,but continues to lag behind all other re

269、porting destinations.Canadian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)The average recovery in both arrivals and nights from Canada to selected European destinations has improved on last quarter,reflecting stronger travel demand in the shoulder season(September-October)and off-pe

270、ak travel months.Travel demand to Southern and Mediterranean Europe remained strong post-summer,with faster growth in arrivals to Trkiye(118%).Cyprus saw arrivals jump up towards the end of the year,resulting in growth rising 1.7%above pre-pandemic levels,up from-16.5%below in the previous quarter.E

271、lsewhere,visitor growth in Portugal remained strong,despite a slight slowdown,however,this better aligns the recovery between nights(74.7%)and visits(80.6%).Among the destinations yet to recover,arrivals to Germany(-7.7%)continued to improve slowly with a modest upgrade on last quarter.Overall,trave

272、l activity to most Eastern European destinations remains subdued,with work still to be done,to regain the losses incurred during the pandemic.Lithuania is the exception to this,reporting one of the strongest improvements over the last few months,with arrivals rising from-39.3%to-28.2%compared to 201

273、9.Whereas arrivals to Slovakia remained relatively unchanged at-26.9%below 2019.-40-20020406080100TrkiyeLatviaPortugalMontenegroSerbiaSpainNorwayPolandSwedenSwitzerlandMonacoDenmarkAustriaSloveniaBelgiumIcelandFinlandCyprusCzechiaGermanyCroatiaHungaryRomaniaLithuaniaSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:Tour

274、MIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Trkiye,118.0%(A)Latvia,111.1%(N)37 Australian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Trkiye continues to see significantly more arrivals from Australia compared to 2019,and this increased more acro

275、ss September-November.Arrivals are now 70.8%above where they were,compared to 63%last quarter.Faster growth may still be reported for the end of 2024 and in early 2025 because Turkish Airlines started running seasonal flights between Istanbul and Sydney at the start of December,before transitioning

276、to a non-stop service,likely appealing to more Australian tourists.Spain reported softer growth in Australian tourists,over the same period with levels now 56.4%above,which is still significantly higher than almost all other reporting destinations.Similarly,Cyprus also had a slightly weaker period p

277、ost-summer as arrivals dropped back into negative territory,now-4%below 2019 levels as opposed to quarter three where it edged up to 0.5%above.But other destinations across Southern and Mediterranean Europe fared better with Australian tourists,including Montenegro which saw both arrivals(48.2%)and

278、nights(83.8%)jump up and take the top spot in percentage growth.Tourism demand for Portugal remained robust,with a modest gain in both arrivals(31.8%)and nights(37.7%).The strong growth in Montenegro highlights the emerging popularity of tourist hotspots in the Balkans,including other non-reporting

279、destinations such as Bosnia and Herzegovina,Albania and North Macedonia.As value-for-money becomes more important,cheaper destinations are going to have more appeal,especially for tourists who have longer and more expensive flights than those visiting from the immediate region.The outlook among dest

280、inations in Central and Eastern Europe was mixed towards the end of the year.Hungary saw a large jump in arrivals,pushing it ahead of 2019 levels by 5%,while the improvement in nights edged closer to recovery at-0.2%.Lithuania remains one of the slowest to recover,and despite weaker growth this quar

281、ter relative to 2019,compared to 2023,arrivals and nights growth remains very strong at 23.8%and 35.8%respectively.Elsewhere,arrivals to Czechia(-10.7%)and Slovakia(-37.1%)had a weaker end to the year against both 2019 and 2023.-40-200204060MontenegroSerbiaTrkiyeSpainPortugalMaltaSwitzerlandDenmarkM

282、onacoNorwayHungaryFinlandSloveniaBelgiumAustriaPolandCyprusGermanySwedenCzechiaCroatiaRomaniaLatviaLithuaniaEstoniaSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Montenegro 83.8%(N)Serbia,71.9%(N)Trkiye,70.8%(A)38 Brazilian visits an

283、d overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Across all selected destinations,average(non-weighted)growth in both arrivals and nights from Brazil have fallen,compared to the previous quarter,but still remain ahead of 2019 levels at 2.5%and 11%respectively.The recovery in arrivals(-16%)and nig

284、hts(-17.1%)to Portugal has weakened compared to quarter three.It is possible that activity will pick up towards the end of the year following additional flights by TAP Air between Lisbon Airport and Florianpolis-Herclio Luz International Airport that started in September and the resumption of flight

285、s between Lisbon and Manus from November 2024.Germany remains one of the largest destinations for Brazilian tourists that has yet to recover fully from the pandemic.A softer few months of data in late 2024 shows arrivals-18.7%and nights-16.8%below 2019.However,there is an opportunity to improve with

286、 new overnight flight connections between Rio de Janeiro and Frankfurt Airport.In contrast,a strong performance over the summer has resulted in arrivals from Brazil to Spain now 5.5%ahead of 2019 levels,meaning both metrics are now back in growth territory.Montenegro and Serbia also reported strong

287、improvement over this time,more so for arrivals(45.9%)to Serbia and nights(114.1%)spent in Montenegro.-40-30-20-1001020304050SerbiaMontenegroSwitzerlandMonacoRomaniaTrkiyeFinlandSpainHungarySloveniaNorwayCroatiaDenmarkAustriaSwedenBelgiumLatviaCzechiaPolandPortugalEstoniaGermanyLithuaniaSlovakiaArri

288、valsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,120.3%(N)Montenegro,72.3%(A),114.1%(N)39 7.Origin market share analysis Based on Tourism Economics Global Travel Service(GTS)model,the following charts and analysis show Europes evolving marke

289、t position in absolute and percentage terms for selected source markets.Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound travel for the calculation of market share.For example,US outbound figures featured in the analysis are larger t

290、han reported departures in national statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple destinations.In 2014,US data reporting shows 11.9 million departures to Europe,while the sum of European arrivals from the US was 23.4 million.Thus,each US trip to Europe involved a visit to two destin

291、ations on average.The geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,C

292、yprus,North Macedonia,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Trkiye;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine.40 United

293、States market share summary United States long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of American market Total outbound travel125,210-6.5%36.8%-4.3%-Long haul77,45161.9%6.8%39.1%62.9%7.4%60.1%Short haul47,75938.1%5.9%33.2%37.1%-0.4%39.9%Travel to Europe38,26530.6%5.5%30.6%29.2%12.7%28.3%European Union5,

294、8864.7%46.7%579.3%23.3%-74.2%19.0%Northern Europe10,0968.1%3.3%17.7%6.9%14.8%7.3%Western Europe11,8989.5%4.9%26.8%8.8%4.9%9.4%Southern Europe13,08410.4%5.8%32.6%10.1%28.7%8.5%Central/Eastern Europe3,1862.5%12.1%76.9%3.3%-12.6%3.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-

295、23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.000201420152

296、01620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeS

297、outhern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market41 Canada market share summary Canada long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Canadian market Total outbound travel37,825-5.2%29.1%-2.5%

298、-Long haul15,03139.7%7.0%40.4%43.2%-0.8%39.0%Short haul22,79460.3%4.0%21.5%56.8%-3.6%61.0%Travel to Europe7,06218.7%3.7%19.8%17.3%9.8%16.6%European Union9992.6%50.4%669.9%15.8%-78.7%12.1%Northern Europe1,5724.2%1.7%8.9%3.5%14.0%3.6%Western Europe2,1325.6%2.5%13.3%4.9%5.9%5.2%Southern Europe3,2608.6%

299、4.8%26.5%8.5%14.3%7.4%Central/Eastern Europe990.3%16.3%112.7%0.4%-47.4%0.5%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)S

300、hare 2018*000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations ou

301、tside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market42 Mexi

302、co market share summary Mexico long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Mexican market Total outbound travel18,689-8.0%46.6%-16.3%-Long haul3,64119.5%6.9%39.4%18.5%2.9%15.9%Short haul15,04780.5%8.2%48.4%81.5%-19.9%84.1%Travel to Europe2,31812.4%3.2%17.3%9.9%17.0%8.9%European Union4162.2%40.1%440.4

303、%8.2%-67.6%5.7%Northern Europe1921.0%3.4%18.1%0.8%21.3%0.7%Western Europe6693.6%7.1%41.2%3.4%-26.9%4.1%Southern Europe1,3187.1%0.5%2.4%4.9%93.4%3.1%Central/Eastern Europe1390.7%7.3%42.4%0.7%-38.2%1.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic

304、related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.50020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest o

305、f Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long

306、haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market43 Argentina market share summary Argentina Long-Haul*Outbound Travel Europes share of Argentinian market Total outbound travel8,952-6.7%38.2%-30.8%-Long haul2,54128.4%9.7%59.2%32.

307、7%-37.5%31.5%Short haul6,41071.6%5.4%29.8%67.3%-27.7%68.5%Travel to Europe1,11012.4%7.9%46.4%13.1%-35.4%13.3%European Union2903.2%26.3%221.8%7.6%-69.0%7.2%Northern Europe1401.6%3.9%21.1%1.4%-16.1%1.3%Western Europe510.6%12.3%78.3%0.7%-31.7%0.6%Southern Europe8279.2%8.2%48.2%9.9%-34.9%9.8%Central/Eas

308、tern Europe921.0%8.6%50.8%1.1%-55.4%1.6%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000sShare*Annual averageC

309、umulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.50020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economic

310、sVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market44 Brazil market share summary Brazil lo

311、ng-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Brazilian market Total outbound travel9,779-8.5%50.1%-16.5%-Long haul6,65568.1%9.8%59.6%72.3%-22.3%73.2%Short haul3,12431.9%5.4%30.0%27.7%-0.4%26.8%Travel to Europe3,88139.7%8.7%51.8%40.1%-16.3%39.6%European Union1,07111.0%31.5%292.8%28.7%-70.0%30.5%Northern

312、Europe3533.6%3.5%18.5%2.9%17.1%2.6%Western Europe1,09311.2%9.1%54.9%11.5%-27.1%12.8%Southern Europe2,09821.5%9.1%54.3%22.1%-12.4%20.5%Central/Eastern Europe3373.4%9.9%60.4%3.7%-23.4%3.8%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declin

313、es.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.00010.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long

314、 HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defi

315、ned as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market45 India market share summary India long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Indian market Total outbound travel19,195-11.2%70.1%-2.4%-Long haul18,26295.1%11.5%72.0%96.2%-2.0%94.8%Short h

316、aul9334.9%5.8%32.9%3.8%-8.5%5.2%Travel to Europe3,09016.1%9.6%58.0%15.0%-15.7%18.7%European Union6253.3%25.4%209.7%5.9%-52.4%6.7%Northern Europe6623.4%8.3%49.1%3.0%-9.2%3.7%Western Europe9104.7%6.5%36.7%3.8%-14.0%5.4%Southern Europe3621.9%9.1%54.2%1.7%18.9%1.5%Central/Eastern Europe1,1566.0%12.6%81.

317、1%6.4%-26.6%8.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2

318、028*Cumulative growth*05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20132015201720192021202320252

319、0270%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market46 China market share summary China long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Chines

320、e market Total outbound travel44,703-26.4%222.4%-55.9%-Long haul18,59641.6%31.9%299.2%51.5%-64.6%51.7%Short haul26,10758.4%21.8%167.8%48.5%-46.7%48.3%Travel to Europe4,54910.2%34.2%334.7%13.7%-67.6%13.8%European Union1,0322.3%48.2%615.8%5.1%-84.3%6.5%Northern Europe5961.3%32.5%308.5%1.7%-63.7%1.6%We

321、stern Europe1,6993.8%34.4%337.9%5.2%-71.5%5.9%Southern Europe5121.1%25.0%205.7%1.1%-57.7%1.2%Central/Eastern Europe1,7423.9%36.8%378.5%5.8%-66.7%5.2%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total

322、outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Eu

323、rope*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast

324、 AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market47 Japan market share summary Japan long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Japanese market Total outbound travel13,278-21.0%159.2%-44.7%-Long haul8,67365.3%20.3%151.8%63.5%-43.6%64.0%Short haul4,60534.7%22.2%173.0%36.5%-46.8%36.0%Travel to E

325、urope2,65820.0%19.9%147.7%19.1%-44.0%19.8%European Union7665.8%40.9%455.1%12.4%-81.8%17.5%Northern Europe4493.4%18.9%137.8%3.1%-44.3%3.4%Western Europe9607.2%19.3%141.4%6.7%-46.5%7.5%Southern Europe8796.6%17.5%124.1%5.7%-38.0%5.9%Central/Eastern Europe3702.8%27.1%231.8%3.6%-49.4%3.0%*Shows cumulativ

326、e change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*02.0004.00

327、06.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212

328、023202520270%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market48 Australia market share summary Australia long-haul*outbound travel Eu

329、ropes share of Australian market Total outbound travel18,211-9.5%57.4%-1.7%-Long haul17,39995.5%9.4%56.8%95.1%-2.8%96.6%Short haul8134.5%11.4%71.4%4.9%28.9%3.4%Travel to Europe6,28634.5%5.0%27.7%28.0%4.4%32.5%European Union8354.6%51.0%685.7%22.9%-83.3%26.9%Northern Europe1,82710.0%1.6%8.4%6.9%17.9%8

330、.4%Western Europe1,7879.8%3.5%18.9%7.4%1.2%9.5%Southern Europe2,29812.6%7.5%43.4%11.5%4.2%11.9%Central/Eastern Europe3742.1%10.8%67.2%2.2%-24.9%2.7%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total o

331、utbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000s05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNort

332、hern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside

333、OceaniaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market49 Russia market share summary Russia long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Russian market Total outbound travel25,580-11.1%69.3%-16.1%-Long haul8,64833.8%8.9%52.8%30.5%24.8%22.7%Short haul16,93366.2%12.2%77.7%69.5%-28.1%77.3%Travel to Europe16,93366.2%12.2%77.7%69.5%-28.1%77.3%European Union2,2258.7%8.1%47.9%7.6%-74.3%28.4%Northern Eur