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1、Thematic Paper|Sub-Saharan Africa Policy|International Cooperation Bytes without Borders How Tech enables African Free TradeJust scan the QR code with your smartphone or tablet to open the digital version.english.bdi.eu/publication/news/bytes-without-bordersPublication2SummaryAfrican free trade has

2、the potential to become the key driver for the continents economic development.However,obstacles on the path to economic integration cannot be limited to trade barriers such as tariffs.Free trade needs proper cross-border infrastructure.New technologies and innovations can help to reduce infrastruct

3、ural deficits and can unleash the full potential of AfCFTA.In this regard,the question of who builds the infrastructure in Africa also has a profoundly geostrategic dimension.3The potential of pan-African free trade is undisputed The AfCFTA unites 54 African count-ries,aiming to boost incomes,reduce

4、 poverty,and attract investment across the continent.4The African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA),which formally came into force in 2021,is one of the largest free trade areas in the world,encompassing 54 countries and 1.5 billion people,with the aim of creating a single African market(Statista,

5、2024).Forecasts predict a considerable increase in prosperity:Production factors such as labor and capital are allocated more efficiently,and consumers can choose from a wider range of products.The AfCFTA is expected to boost incomes by 450 billion US dollars by 2035 and lift 30 million Africans out

6、 of extreme poverty(African Union,N/A).In addition,larger markets and the free movement of capi-tal increase attractiveness for local and foreign investors.The AfCFTA is therefore of great importance for German industry,as the free trade area will open new sales markets,leading to a greater independ

7、ence from single sales markets.The AfCFTA is expected to boost incomesby 450 billion US dollars by 2035.54 Countries1.5 billion people5The potential of pan-African free trade is undisputed Insufficient infrastructure hinders trade Inadequate infrastructure,particularly in sub-Saharan Africa,poses si

8、gnificant non-tariff barriers to trade within the continent,making goods more expensive and hindering intra-African trade,which only accounts for 18%of total African trade.6Duty-free treatment and the regulation of rules of origin un-doubtedly play an important role in market harmonization.However,t

9、he major obstacles to free trade are of non-tariff nature.Inadequate cross-border infrastructure makes trade more expensive or simply impossible.Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the lowest road density in the world,and many African countries have generally poor road quality(International Road F

10、ederation,2020).This must be fac-tored into the price of trade:Nowhere is the import and ex-port of goods as expensive as in sub-Saharan Africa(Kere&Zongo,2023).A lack of efficient transport networks leads to longer delivery times,increased fuel consumption,and higher wear and tear on vehicles,addin

11、g up to a higher price of goods.In fact,African countries are trading more out-side the continent than amongst themselves:Only 18 per cent of total African trade is accounted for by intra-African trade(Luke,2023).Meanwhile,investment in roads and railways in the region is lower than anywhere else,al

12、though these are primarily responsible for the transportation of goods(Africa Finance Cooperation,2024).To enable free trade,inadequate infras-tructure must be overcomeOnly 18%of total African trade is accounted for by intra-African trade.7Insufficient infrastructure hinders trade RailwaysPortsInves

13、tment in projects by sectors and by region in million US Dollars(2010-2022)Investment in infrastructure in Africa is below average.The infrastructure that is particularly important for intra-Af-rican trade,such as roads and railways,is underdeveloped.Only in ports,which are primarily used for trade

14、with non-East Asia&Pacific5.05642.143East Asia&PacificLatin America&Carribbean12.15926.835Latin America&CarribbeanEurope&Central Asia5.4704.387Europe&Central AsiaSouth Asia6.6456.781South AsiaAfrica13.1465.645Africa8AirportsRoads96.13812.480East Asia&PacificEast Asia&Pacific79.50031.477Latin America

15、&CarribbeanLatin America&Carribbean36.35850.634Europe&Central AsiaEurope&Central Asia82.22410.067South AsiaSouth Asia1.5701.242AfricaAfricaSource:Africa Finance Cooperation(2024)9Insufficient infrastructure hinders trade No integration without digitalization The African Internet Economy is expected

16、to generate 712 billion US dollars by 2050.10Despite its fundamental relevance,intra-African trade does not only rely on physical infrastructure.As the digital trans-formation of the economy continues,telecommunication channels and digital infrastructure are becoming increa-singly important for an i

17、ntegrated market especially be-cause they surpass traditional infrastructure in many areas.Online services have proven essential:messenger services and social networks are the most popular means of com-munication over long distances.Digital communication channels not only facilitate social interacti

18、on but are also crucial for business transactions and further market integration:it will be essential that sup-pliers and buyers can encounter each other on the market and exchange their goods and services.Especially for cross-border transactions,a well-developed digital telecommuni-cation infrastru

19、cture is necessary,as it gives easier access to distant markets.It also enables a more efficient cross-border division of labor,as people no longer have to be physically in one place to collaborate.The African Union recognizes the central role of e-com-merce with regards to the Pan-African Free Trad

20、e Area and has added a protocol to the AfCFTA agreement.It aims at establishing a common legal framework for digital trade and thus,eliminating legal barriers to digital trade(Trade Law Centre NPC,2024).E-commerce creates more direct sales channels.Particularly in remote areas,producers can sell the

21、ir goods directly to the end customer,thereby redu-cing transaction costs due to the absence of intermediaries.Not only the marketplace,but also the movement of goods is optimized by digital technologies.For example,digital customs can speed up the border crossing of goods,when goods are digitally r

22、ecorded and customs duties are paid automatically,while simultaneously carrying out security checks to detect possible illegal cross border movements(World Customs Organization,2016&European Com-mission,N/A).According to estimates,the contribution of the Internet Economy to Africas GDP is enormous:b

23、y 2050,it is expec-ted to generate 712 billion US dollars,8.5 per cent of the con-tinents GDP(International Finance Cooperation,2020).Digital Infrastructureenables long distance communicationcreates an AfricanE-marketplaceoffers new ways for division of laboraccelerates cross-border movement of good

24、sis the backbone of future business models11No integration without digitalization Average download speed(Mbps)300-200200-100100-5050-20 20Africa must catch up digitally 60 per cent of Africans do not have access to the Internet.1212Source:Cable.co.uk,202413Africa must catch up digitally 6,69South Af

25、rica1,43Marocco1,03Egypt0,6NigeriaIn addition,underinvestment in other critical areas of di-gital infrastructure,such as fiber-optic connections,pre-sents a major challenge.This is a particular disadvantage,as fiber-optic provides a fast,constant and stable Internet connection with a lot of data bei

26、ng transmitted over long distances(The Economist,2024).Particularly in more re-mote areas,greater reliance must be placed on the Internet from space,which represents a widespread solution with lower investment costs.Another structural disadvantage on the African continent is the small number of data

27、 centers,the basic framework for cloud computing and e-commerce operations.These provide the necessary infrastructure for storing and pro-cessing large amounts of data and can lead to considerable delays in data processing(Data Center Map,2024).There is even a lack of basic prerequisites for a compe

28、titive digi-tal infrastructure:the high energy consumption of digital infrastructure(e.g.data centers)is confronted with a low energy supply on the continent(Malmodin et al.,2024&International Energy Agency,2022).An additional barrier to e-commerce emerges when it comes to cross-border payments.For

29、a long time,traditio-nal banks dominated these transactions,particularly when cross-border goods traffic involved areas with different currencies.This,however,excludes a large proportion of the African population,as 60 per cent of them do not have a bank account(Thibaut,2024).As technical possibilit

30、ies advance and African technology companies emerge,mobile money has become one of the most common payment methods in Africa.Digital payment methods will be crucial for the cross-border movement of goods,as they are not only more accessible for consumers,but also promise faster payment processing at

31、 lower trans-action costs.To date,these digital payment providers come with relatively high transaction fees(Safaricom,N/A).1414IT capacity in MW per million capita in Q1,2023 31,38Germany1,28KenyaSource:Africa Finance Cooperation(2024)15Africa must catch up digitally What are the consequences of in

32、action?Building digital infrastructure is not optional but critical for Africas economic competitiveness in the future.16As outlined,a robust digital infrastructure is essential for the realization of an African single market for the networking of the African population,for the creation of a digital

33、 market that can potentially be accessed by every African,as well as for the smooth processing of financial transactions.Building digital infrastructure is not optio-nal but critical for Africas economic competitiveness in the future.Otherwise,the continent risks falling further behind in terms of t

34、echnological development and mis-sing out on economic potential.In an increasingly digitalized world,a fast Internet con-nection is becoming a critical location factor.According to a company survey,the state of the(telecommunications)infrastructure is one of the most important negative loca-tion fac

35、tors in Africa(KPMG,2023).Without substantial improvements in this area,African countries risk becoming less attractive to foreign investors.At the same time,local businesses that lack sufficient digital infrastructure will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage compared to foreign competitor

36、s,who can leverage superior digital tools and resources.Digital infrastructure and greater computing power will be of the utmost importance for future fields of application and business areas.The usage of artificial intelligence(AI)has not even taken off yet,and Africas disadvantages are already app

37、arent.AI is estimated to contribute 16 trillion US dollars to global economic output by 2030(compared to 2017)(The Economist,2024).But due to the lack of digital infrastructure,it seems like AI will widen the productivity and income gap between Africa and the richer countries.Since AI naturally redu

38、ces the labor factor in a produc-tion process,Africa,as a low-wage location,would lose its competitive advantage in the global value creation process.AI is estimated to contribute 16 trillion US dollars to global economic output by 203017What are the consequences of inaction?China is building,German

39、y is watching China is the dominant player when it comes to the ex-pansion of both digital and physical infrastructure in Af-rica.70 per cent of mobile broadband infrastructure is im-plemented by Chinese-based companies(Arnold,2023).Huawei in particular is driving digital transformation in Africa(Eh

40、l,2022).Chinese infrastructure projects typically involve a combination of Chinese loans and contracts awar-ded to Chinese companies,allowing for rapid implementa-tion.Germany,on the other hand,is only marginally active in infrastructure projects in Africa.In German development policy,investments in

41、 economic structures have so far been inconspicuous.Of the total commitments of German bi-lateral Official Development Assistance(ODA),only seven per cent went to the infrastructure sector(BMZ,2023).Whats more,national laws and EU directives can even make it more difficult for German companies to be

42、come more involved in the African infrastructure sector,for example through mandatory reporting obligations or disc-losure of supply relationships.Still,some may note,that the expansion of infrastructure in Africa has a positive benefit for German industry,also when it is provided by China.However,C

43、hina acts strategically on the continent and aligns its infrastructure projects with its own interests,i.e.to improve trade routes between itself and African trading partners.This interest does not neces-sarily correspond to the interest of African companies or the interest of German companies that

44、are active in Africa.In some cases,the use of Chinese digital infrastructure may even pose business risks.For example,with Huawei technology,there is a risk that certain web content could be blocked,sensitive company data could be exposed,or even acts of sabotage could occur(Ehl,2022&BMI,2024).These

45、 concerns underline the need for Germany,together with its Western partners,to play a more active role in Af-ricas(digital)infrastructure development.Components from Huawei account for around 70%of 4G networks across the continent181813524Germany and its Western part-ners must be aware of their in-t

46、erests on the African continent and act accordingly.Digital in-frastructure projects are not an objective in themselves but are a fundamental location factor also for German companies.Satellite constellations will play a central role in the secure sup-ply of Internet in Africa,especi-ally in remote

47、areas.Germany should thus advocate for the planned EU satellite constella-tion Iris to cover African count-ries as well.The energy supply for the digital infrastructure must be streng-thened.African countries need massive investment in power generation and power grids.To support German industry in i

48、ts engagement in the African energy sector,the climate policy sector guidelines for export and investment guarantees.By ha-ving a strong focus on the EU taxonomy,the guidelines neg-lect local conditions and requi-rements in African countries.If,for example,wind,hydro and solar energy are not suffici

49、ently available yet,the residual de-mand might be met by gas-fired power plants.By excluding this type of basic infrastructure from German guarantee instruments,Africans are denied the oppor-tunity to obtain innovative and comparatively efficient techno-logies from Germany at attrac-tive financing c

50、onditions.The field is left to competitors.German development coopera-tion should rethink the prioriti-zation in its budget and venture into large(digital)infrastructure projects.The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development(BMZ)should in-tensify its measures for building digital inf

51、rastructure through Germanys Development Bank(KfW).Global Gateway must become more comprehensible.Regar-ding Global Gateway,digitaliza-tion is one of the five sub-areas that are to be specifically promo-ted.Up to 300 billion euros in investments are to be mobilized by 2027.So far,however,the in-itia

52、tive presented in 2021 has hardly been noticed,which is due to the vague definition and lack of coherence of the program.Political leaders in Germany and Europe should call for simplified rules so that the funds and gua-rantee schemes can be accessed as easily as possible and contri-bute to strength

53、ening the digital infrastructure in Africa.What needs to be done?The economic potential of an integrated African market is enormous.Building the supporting infrastructure for this should therefore be a priority for German involvement in Africa.However,in German development policy invest-ments in dig

54、ital infrastructure have so far been too incon-spicuous.This must change.The BDIs recommendations for action are:19Sources African Development Bank(2023).Public-private partnerships needed to bridge Africas infrastructure development gap.https:/www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/public-private-partners

55、hips-needed-bridge-afri-cas-infrastructure-development-gap-65936 Africa Finance Cooperation(2024).State of Africas Infrastructure Report 2024.https:/www.africafc.org/news-and-insights/news/energy-to-transport-disparity-heralds-un-precedented-chance-to-unlock-growth-afc-state-of-africas-infrastructur

56、e-report African Union(N/A).About the AfCFTA.https:/au-afcfta.org/about/Arnold,S.(2024).Africas roads to digital development:paving the way for Chinese structural power in the ICT sector?https:/ BMI(2024).Strkung der Sicherheit und technologischen Souvernitt der deutschen 5G-Mobilfunknetze.https:/ww

57、w.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/kurzmeldungen/DE/2024/07/5g.html BMZ(2023).ODA-Zahlen:Deutsche ODA.https:/www.bmz.de/de/ministerium/zahlen-fakten/oda-zahlen/deutsche-oda-leistun-gen-19220 Cable.co.uk(2024).Worldwide broadband speed league 2024.https:/www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/D

58、ata Center Map(2024).Data Center Map.https:/ embraces Huawei tech despite security concerns.https:/ European Commission(N/A).Electronic Customs.https:/taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/electronic-customs_en GSMA(2023).The Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa.https:/ International Energy Ageny(202

59、2).Energy system of Africa.https:/www.iea.org/regions/africa International Finance Cooperation(2020).Report e-Conomy Africa 2020-Africas$180 Billion Internet Economy Future.https:/www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2020/google-e-conomy#:text=Analysis%20in%20the%20report%20finds,8.5%25%20of%20the%20cont

60、inent%27s%20GDP 2020 International Road Federation(2020).Europe continues to report the worlds highest Road Network Density,followed by East Asia and Pacific.https:/worldroadstatistics.org/europe-central-asia-continue-to-report-the-worlds-highest-road-network-density-followed-by-east-asia-and-pacifi

61、c/Kere,S.&Zongo,A.(2023).Digital technologies and intra-African trade.https:/ KPMG(2023).Afrika:Ein Kontinent im Aufbruch.https:/hub.kpmg.de/hubfs/KPMG_Afrika-Studie_2023.pdf?utm_campaign=IB-Studie%2 Luke,D.(2023).Understanding African trade is key to helping its development.https:/www.lse.ac.uk/res

62、earch/research-for-the-world/economics/understanding-african-trade-is-key-to-helping-its-development#:text=But%20intra%2DAfrican%20trade%20is,in%20minerals%20and%20fossil%20fuels.%E2%80%9D Malmodin,J.,Lvehagen,N.,Bergmark,P.,&Lundn,D.(2024)ICT sector electricity consump-tion and greenhouse gas emiss

63、ions 2020 outcome.https:/ Safricom(N/A).M-PESA Charges.https:/www.safaricom.co.ke/main-mpesa/m-pesa-for-you/tariffs-limits/consumer-tariffs-limits Statista(2024).Afrika:Entwicklung der Gesamtbevlkerung von 1950 bis 2023 und Progno-sen bis 2050.https:/ Economist(2024).Africa 2.0:How to ensure Africa

64、is not left behind by the AI revolution.https:/ Thibaut,R.(2024).Advancing regional cooperation within AfCFTA through an integrated cross-border e-commerce system.https:/ Trade Law Centre NPC(2024).Overview of the AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade(2024).https:/www.tralac.org/documents/events/tralac/5

65、392-2024-annual-conference-note-over-view-of-the-afcfta-protocol-on-digital-trade/file.html World Customs Organization(2016).Digital Customs,the opportunities of the Information Age.https:/mag.wcoomd.org/magazine/wco-news-79/digital-customs-the-opportunities-of-the-information-age/21Imprint EditorBu

66、ndesverband der Deutschen Industrie e.V.Breite Strae 2910178 BerlinT.:+49 30 2028-0www.bdi.euContact PersonMatthias WachterAbteilungsleiter Internationale Zusammenarbeit,Sicherheit,Rohstoffe und Raumfahrt Jonathan Kaupenjohann Referent Internationale Zusammenarbeit,Sicherheit,Rohstoffe und Raumfahrt

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