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1、March 2025Public Sector PracticeNew York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.This article is a collaborative effort by Anthony Shorris,Brooke Daniels,Maurice Obeid,and Yael Taqqu,with Kevin Russell,representing views from McKinseys Public Sector Practice.Since the early 17th century,New York has been a glob

2、al hub for the flow of goods,capital,people,and ideas.1 It has experienced constant economic transformation,dominating first in the fur trade,then in shipping,sugar refinement,machine tools,the garment trade,business services,and finance.Through its evolution,New York has grown not only as a center

3、of innovation but also as a catalyst for progress around the world.Today,the New York metropolitan areas biggest sectors include financial services,healthcare,professional services,retail,and education.2 Those five sectors employ more than four million residents and generate more than a trillion dol

4、lars in annual revenuesmore than half of the regions GDP.3 Technology is also one of the fastest-growing sectors in New York.And while core sectors have persisted and evolved,the past 400 years have shown that todays leading industries may not be the industries that generate waves of job creation,wa

5、ge increases,living standards,or economic growth in the decades to come.The time has come for New Yorks bold,imaginative leadersin communities,industry,academia,government,and civic organizationsto join forces and reinvent New York once again.Recent research by the McKinsey Global Institute(MGI)sugg

6、ests that 18 arenas of competition,a unique category of industries defined by high growth and dynamism that includes e-commerce and cloud services,could reshape the global economy in the next ten to 15 years(see sidebar,“The 18 arenas of competition”).4 Examples of arenas include e-commerce,cloud se

7、rvices,robotics,and shared autonomous vehicles(SAVs),1 We define the New York metropolitan statistical area as a region with 19.5 million people in New York City and adjacent counties in Long Island,Westchester,New Jersey,and Connecticut.References to“New York”that follow refer to this broader regio

8、n.“New York-Newark-Jersey City,NY-NJ metro area,”Census Reporter,2023.2 Sean Ross,“New Yorks economy:The 6 industries driving GDP growth,”Investopedia,May 29,2024.3 Sean Ross,“New Yorks economy:The 6 industries driving GDP growth,”Investopedia,May 29,2024.4“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,Oc

9、tober 23,2024.among others.The 18 arenas will generate outsize economic growth,raise productivity in other fields,transform lives,andif the companies in the arenas have operations or headquarters in the regionbuild on New Yorks global leadership.We believe the future of the New York region will be b

10、uilt on strategic investment,inclusion,and collaboration in these arenas;they promise innovation and revolutionary productivity,they are likely to see an abundance of new entrants,and they could transform the urban fabric.From industry-leading technologies to medical breakthroughs and cultural trans

11、formation,this next wave of evolution will require leaders to bring everyone to the table,think boldly,and act decisively.The New York of 2040 isnt just a dreamits a destination.Its a future shaped by bold ideas,collective action,and a relentless commitment to progress.The region that is home to the

12、 city that never sleeps is waking up to a new day,ready to lead the world into tomorrow.The 18 arenas of competitionThe following 18 arenas of competition are defined by high growth and dynamism:AI software and services,batteries,cloud services,cybersecurity,digital advertisements,drugs for obesity

13、and related conditions,e-commerce,electric vehicles,future air mobility,industrial and consumer biotech,modular construction,nuclear fission,robotics,semiconductors,shared autonomous vehicles,space,streaming video,and video games.2New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.The future growth arenas poised

14、to transform New Yorks economyNew MGI research has identified a set of arenas that reshaped the global economy in the past couple decades,as well as a set of emerging arenas that are likely to reshape the global economy again over the next 15 years.We define arenas as dynamic industries with high gr

15、owth in revenue and market capitalization.Three elements consistently underpin these dynamic features:disruptive advances in technology or business models,escalating investments that rapidly improve product or service quality and spur a race to the top,and high demand in global markets.In short,they

16、 are relatively small segments of the industrial landscape that are responsible for most of the transformative change in each economic era.To understand arenas of the future,we can look to the past.From 2005 through 2020,only a dozen of 57 major industries exhibited the high growth in revenue and ma

17、rket value to reach arena status.5 These arenas showed remarkable features,including higher economic profits,doubled research and development intensity,and more revenue from outside their home countries than companies in non-arena industries.5“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.

18、6“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.Arenas have shaped New Yorks growth.Since 2005,for example,the five largest sectors in the region have been real estate,professional services,financial services,IT,and healthcare,which together accounted for about 80 percent of New Yorks GDP

19、growth,growing about 3.5 percent annually,on average(Exhibit 1).That overall growth in New Yorks traditional core sectors benefitted from industry tailwinds within those sectors undergoing transformative change.For example,the consumer internet,software,and video and audio entertainment industries a

20、re each a small portion of the IT sector;they respectively grew by 21 percent,12 percent,and 8 percent globally from 2005 to 2020 because of increased investment and technological advancements.6 In the financial services sector,although most of the GDP growth in financial services came from traditio

21、nal industries such as commercial banking,revenue growth in payments outpaced the rest of the sector.New Yorks manufacturing sector shrank in the 200523 period,but industries within the sectorsuch as biopharmaceuticals,consumer electronics,electric vehicles(EVs),industrial electronics,and semiconduc

22、torsall grew more than 6 percent per year.The New York of 2040 isnt just a dreamits a destination.Its a future shaped by bold ideas,collective action,and a relentless commitment to progress.3New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.While the professional services sector grew at a rate above 3 percent in

23、 the same period,cloud services and information-enabled business services grew 17 percent and 7 percent globally.And e-commerce contributed significantly to the growth of New Yorks retail trade sector,growing at 31 percent globally.7“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.As we look

24、 to the future,there are 18 future arenas with the potential to unlock$29 trillion to$48 trillion in revenues by 2040.7 This is up to a third of global GDP growth in the next 15 years,even though these arenas account for just 4 percent of GDP today(Exhibit 2).Exhibit 1Web MCK259151 Future of New Yor

25、kExhibit of New York sector GDP growth,200523,$billion200523 CAGR,%Share of GDP growth,%Note:Figures may not sum to totals,because of rounding.1Other services(except public administration);arts,entertainment,and recreation;utilities;agriculture,forestry,and fshing and hunting;mining,quarrying,and oi

26、l and gas extraction.Source:New York metropolitan statistical area data from Moodys and US Bureau of Labor Statistics;McKinsey analysisFive of New Yorks 20 sectors include arenas of today,representing about 60 percent of GDP growth from 2005 to 2023.McKinsey&Company1.81.91.36.93.402.91.91.00.41.71.7

27、0.60.82.32.12.510016.611.427.617.40.111.31.62.41.24.12.01.41.33.62.93.02005200523 GDP growthSector includes arena(s)of todayReal estate and rental and leasingFinance and insuranceInformationProfessional,scientifc,andtechnical servicesGovernmentHealthcare and social assistanceWholesale tradeRetail tr

28、adeManufacturingAdministration and support andwaste managementTransportation and warehousingConstructionManagement of companies andenterprisesAccommodation and food servicesEducational servicesOther sectors1214239621131488891637838355228302167886014692160622819167161091330229920820514914785857057504

29、544403080Total1,3671,8985314New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Exhibit 2Source:McKinsey Global Institute analysis;McKinsey Value IntelligenceMcKinsey&CompanyWeb MCK259151 Future of New YorkExhibit of Revenue estimate,$billionFuture arenas can yield up to$48 trillion in revenues and$6 trillion in p

30、rofts.14,00020,000E-commerce20222040AI software and servicesCloud servicesElectric vehiclesDigital advertisementsSemiconductorsShared autonomous vehiclesSpaceCybersecurityBatteriesModular constructionStreamingvideoVideo gamesRoboticsIndustrial and consumer biotechFuture air mobilityDrugs for obesity

31、Nuclear fssion power plants4,0001,5004,6001,6003,4002,5003,2002,1002,9001,7002,400852204505206306102,3009601,6005901,2008101,1005401,100N/A300160981805101,0001605509101909103409007534012028023021140N/A246515018Total,2022$7.2 trillionTotal,2040$29 trillion$48 trillionProft estimate,2024$2 trillion$6

32、trillion202220405New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Some innovations stem from global digital disruptione-commerce,digital ads,AI,cloud computing,and cybersecuritywhile others blend digital with physical,such as EVs,autonomous vehicles,robotics,future air mobility,and space.Advances in modular con

33、struction,new drugs,and nuclear fission could reshape housing,health,and energy.In this article,we present a perspective on how these future arenas could shape New Yorks future economy,as explained through the following three categories:1.arenas where New York companies are already poised to compete

34、 and lead2.arenas that may unlock significant growth in other leading industries in the metropolitan region3.arenas that could create transformative improvements in the daily lives of New YorkersOur in-depth analyses of emerging industries and their potential impacts on New York highlight their capa

35、city to propel substantial economic growth and reshape R&D and investment capital flows.This assessment of New Yorks business landscape explores drivers of sector success,including employment and GDP composition,early-stage investment flows,and innovation trends such as patent applications.We highli

36、ght arenas where New York organizations are well positioned to tackle future challenges.However,New Yorks competitive advantage in these arenas will only materialize with sustained commitment to action,and it remains susceptible to broader macroeconomic shifts.While all 18 arenas may influence the o

37、verall economy and productivity,our analysis identifies a subset of arenas in which New York is currently best positioned.And while we highlight where New Yorks companies are currently poised to lead,there is also opportunity in arenas where New York may not lead currently but might want to invest t

38、o develop an advantage when considering their global growth potential.The following sections explore these critical growth arenas and their implications for New Yorks future across the three categories of impact above.New Yorks competitive advantage in these arenas will only materialize with sustain

39、ed commitment to action.6New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Arenas already poised for growth in New YorkNew York is well positioned for economic growth in arenas where a significant number of its companies directly compete.These arenas are nested within prominent sectors that employ a material sha

40、re of New Yorks labor force,contribute significantly to the economy,and attract major investmentsand could therefore help the metropolitan region maintain its leadership.Examples include e-commerce within the retail sector;digital ads,streaming video,and cybersecurity within information and communic

41、ations technology;and breakthrough drugs for obesity and related conditions within the pharmaceuticals industry.Our research suggests that these five arenas of the future could grow at an average of 8 to 11 percent per year globally.8 And given New Yorks advantages,they could grow even faster there.

42、E-commerce E-commerce is a digital descendant of New Yorks retail and commercial traditions,which originally developed alongside manufacturing,trade,and tourism.Today,many brick-and-mortar stores have given way to online shops,and New York has innovated to emerge as a leader in e-commerce.There is a

43、mple reason to believe that e-commerce will continue to be an arena through 2040,despite already being an established industry that has grown significantly for decades.The industry accounted for 16.6 percent of a$29 trillion global retail market in 2024,9 which is sizable but still leaves room to gr

44、ow,especially as developing economies continue to digitalize and e-commerce companies expand into new product categories such as personal care and food.The region is now home to more than 300 e-commerce start-ups10 and,according to our research,has attracted more than$23 billion in private equity(PE

45、)and venture capital(VC)investment since 2019,ranking first among the 8“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.9“E-commerce as percentage of total retail sales worldwide from 2021 to 2027,”Statista,May 22,2024.10“Retail,”New York City Economic Development Corporation,accessed Februa

46、ry 14,2025.11 Sara Lebow,“Amazon will surpass 40%of US ecommerce sales this year,despite competition in grocery,home improvement,”Emarketer,April 17,2024.12“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.20 largest US metropolitan areas with more than 36 percent of cumulative e-commerce and

47、 mobile commerce investment(Exhibit 3).While Seattle-based Amazon continues to innovate,originating almost 40 percent of US e-commerce spend in 2023,11 New Yorks employment concentration in e-commerce is still on par with peers(partially through Amazons New Yorkbased employees)and is on track to con

48、tinue sharing in the outsize growth of the arena.Accelerating digital technologies:Digital advertising,streaming video,and cybersecurityHistorically,New York has been one of the largest hubs for innovators and emerging digital industries,and this trend continues with digital ads,streaming video,and

49、cybersecurity.The digital ad space starts from a larger base,with global revenues that could grow to$2.1 trillion to$2.9 trillion by 2040,based on our research,while the streaming video and cybersecurity together could reach$1.1 trillion to$2.2 trillionfertile markets for New Yorkbased companies.12

50、While New Yorks share of employment in these and related industries is low,the portion of GDP that they generate is materially larger,suggesting that these digital technology industries are more productive than others and increased investment or employment could yield significant growth.Digital adve

51、rtising funds much of the internet and is likely to keep growing as wealth,high-speed internet access,and digital media consumption rise.Digital ads will continue to improve as companies create more places to display digital ads,such as on rideshare apps or in video games.For decades now,New York ha

52、s been the base of the US advertising ecosystem,and the continued strength of digital ads in New York could continue to cascade globally.While many of the companies that sell advertising are now based on the West Coast,New York is still the hub for ad buyers and digital adtech companies,as evidenced

53、 by the investments 7New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Exhibit 3Web MCK259151 Future of New YorkExhibit of Arena(mapped to industries and sectors,ordered by share of New York employees)1Share of venture capital and private equity capital invested,%Patents granted in New York,thousands(201523)Rank

54、4Growth rate,%3New York patent activityNew York is attracting capital investment in arena-mapped industries that are adjacent to industries in which the region has performed well.McKinsey&CompanyDigital advertisements(adtech)E-commerce(e-commerce and mobile commerce)Streaming video(movies,music and

55、entertainment,entertainment softwareRobotics(robotics and drones)AI software and services(AI and machine learning)Video games(cloud technology and DevOps)Modular construction(construction technology)Cybersecurity(esports and gaming)Future air mobility(air)Nuclear fssion power plants(energy productio

56、n)Cloud service(computer systems design and related services)Shared autonomous vehicles(autonomous cars and ride-sharing)Industrial and consumer biotech(biotechnology)Semiconductors(general-purpose and application-specifc semiconductors)Drugs for obesity and related conditions(drug discovery)Electri

57、c vehicles(automotive)Batteries(energy storage)Space(space technology)30.764.210.99.1201.713.44.966.05.85.561.39.812.51.120.817.23.06.968011206571315627141737312235252358333237512Note:MSAs are metropolitan statistical areas.1Capital data includes cumulative and average investment from 2019 to 2024.2

58、Metropolitan statistical areas.3Average annual year-over-year growth from 2015 to 2023.4New Yorks rank in total number of patents granted between 2015 and 2023 among the other 19 peer MSAs in the US.Source:New York metropolitan statistical area data from PitchBook and US Patent and Trademark Ofce;Mc

59、Kinsey analysisCumulative investment for all MSAs,2$billionCapital invested as a share of GDP for New York relative to the peer mean:803626222018161512121196653001.64.71.90.66.40.90.17.10.402.52.45.72.95.50.20.60 xxHigherLower8New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.pouring into the region:In the past

60、five years,New York has attracted more than half of the cumulative PE and VC financing flowing into advertising technology across the top 20 metropolitan areas in the United States.New York also ranks second among the top 20 metropolitan areas in the number of granted patents in the digital advertis

61、ing space,indicating substantial innovation in the region,especially considering that the top three metro areas account for more than half of the total activity across the top 20.Coupled with a larger share of workers in advertising,PR,and related fields,it is well positioned for digital ad growth(E

62、xhibit 4).Streaming video will likely grow as more households across the world gain high-speed internet access.Since 2019,the region has attracted more than$2.8 billion in PE and VC investments in streaming-related industries,accounting for 25 percent of capital investment across the top 20 US metro

63、 areassecond only to Los Angeles at 40 percent.New York is a center of streaming innovation,with only San Francisco and Los Angeles generating more streaming-related patents from 2015 to 2024.The regions proximity to major media companies,production studios,and top creative and technical talent make

64、s it a prime hub for high-caliber streaming content.This sector has transformed global media consumption,creating significant growth opportunities for content creators,media companies,distributors,and advertisers.The cybersecurity industry is also buzzing to become an arena in 2040.The industry is g

65、rowing rapidly as cyberattacks become more frequent,complex,and costly,reaching into the trillions of dollars every year.Protecting personal and proprietary data will remain a priority,fueling continued investment.Cybersecurity,part of the broader IT infrastructure sector,is not as nascent as other

66、sectors and already accounts for 4 percent of New Yorks GDP.From 2019 to 2024,the region secured 15 percent of US PE and VC cyber investments,trailing only Miami(28 percent)and 13“Cybersecurity supply/demand heat map,”Cyberseek,2024.14“CBRE:New York/New Jersey ranks No.1 nationally for life sciences

67、 manufacturing talent,”ROI-NJ,June 17,2024.15 Kevin Dunleavy,“The top 20 pharma companies by 2023 revenue,”Fierce Pharma,April 15,2024.San Francisco(16 percent).As a global financial hub with more than 300,000 businesses,New York could be natural leader in cybersecurity.But despite this potential,a

68、talent gap remains.With about 20,000 cybersecurity job openings in New York as of 2024,attracting the right talent will be a headwind in the industry.13 Closing this gap will not only strengthen security but also propel economic growth and efficiency across industries.Breakthroughs in pharmaceutical

69、 industriesDrugs for obesity and other chronic conditions may also be an arena in 2040 based on the growing burden of chronic diseases,many linked to obesity.As the US population ages,the potential market for drugs for obesity and other chronic diseases presents major opportunities for the regions p

70、harmaceutical sector,which ranks first in the nation in talent.14 This strength is reinforced by New Yorks deep public and private investment and world-class research institutions.New York is third to Boston and San Francisco out of US metropolitan areas in patents granted with a focus on drugs for

71、obesity and other noncommunicable diseases,and the region has been experiencing 17 percent growth in granted patents since 2015.Pharmaceuticals contribute 1.3 percent to New Yorks GDP,and 13 of the 20 largest biopharmaceutical companies have a significant presence in the region.15 As an example of p

72、harmaceuticals potential,GLP-1s are oneof the ways pharmaceuticals are looking to address the global rise of obesity,which is considered a crisis due to itsassociation with comorbidities and early mortality.This makes leadership in this space and other similar drug categories important to global hea

73、lth,as well as economically advantageous.With its strong talent base fueling the development of transformative inventions,there is a strong case to be made for New York to drive and capture growth stemming from advancements in drugs for obesity and other chronic conditions.9New York 2040:Time to rei

74、nvent.Again.Exhibit 4Web MCK259151 Future of New YorkExhibit of Arena(mapped to industries and sectors)1New York employeesShare,%Total rank2Total rank3Share,%New York GDPNew York leads in total employment across six arena-mapped industries and leads in GDP across fve.McKinsey&CompanyCybersecurity(co

75、mputing infrastructure providers,data processing,web hosting,and related categories)Video games(software publishers,computer systems design,and related services)Cloud service(computer systems design and related services)Modular construction(residential-and nonresidential-building construction,archit

76、ectural and structural metals manufacturing)Industrial and consumer biotech(medical and diagnostic laboratories,scientifc research,and related categories)Robotics(engineering and related services,household appliance manufacturing,and related categories)Digital advertisements(media streaming,social n

77、etworks,web search portals,advertising,and related categories)Future air mobility(aerospace product and parts manufacturing and air transportation)Drugs for obesity and related conditions(pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing)E-commerce(electronic shipping and mail-order houses)Nuclear fssion po

78、wer plants(electric power generation,transmission and distribution,boiler,and related categories)Semiconductors(semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing)Batteries(other electrical equipment and component manufacturing)Space(aerospace product and parts manufacturing,space research a

79、nd technology)4Shared autonomous vehicles(motor vehicle manufacturing and software publishers)Electric vehicles(motor vehicle manufacturing)Streaming video(media streaming distribution services,social networks,and other media networks and content providers)4 AI software and services(software publish

80、ers)4Total1.91.61.61.21.10.90.90.60.40.30.30.10.100022211114121421113134.02.42.40.71.10.91.40.91.31.11.00.100002221211412174111515Note:MSAs are metropolitan statistical areas.1All employment and GDP data is from 2023.2New Yorks rank in terms of total number of employees in each arena across the top

81、20 MSAs.3New Yorks rank in terms total GDP in each arena across the top 20 MSAs.4Data not published on Moodys.Source:New York metropolitan statistical area data from Moodys and US Bureau of Labor Statistics;McKinsey analysisN/AN/A11.017.310New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Other key consideration

82、sTechnological advances in these arenas could reshape the New York region but may also widen existing inequalities.The evolving labor market could favor those with better access to technology and education,potentially displacing others.Addressing these disparities requires investment in education an

83、d upskilling.For example,companies trying to close their cybersecurity talent gaps could prioritize upskilling current employees,leaving entire talent pools outside the industry even farther behind.Likewise,advances in obesity treatments raise questions about equitable access because less-affluent p

84、eople are both more likely to experience obesity and less likely to be able to afford such treatments.Policies ensuring equitable access and mitigating negative impacts will be essential.Arenas that unlock growth for other leading New York sectors We analyzed arenas whose innovations will propel gro

85、wth across industries.Crucial acceleratorsAI software and services,cloud computing,and roboticshave broad applications and can strengthen sectors in which New York already excels or has leadership potential.AI software and servicesAdvances in analytical and generative AI are set to boost productivit

86、y across industries,with AI software and services projected to generate$1.5 trillion to$4.6 trillion globally by 2040,growing at 17 to 25 percent annually.16 However,most economic impact will come from AI adoption rather than direct AI services as businesses integrate AI for tasks such as automation

87、,inventory management,and operations.16“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.17“New York Emerging Technology Advisory Board publishes first report outlining vision to elevate leadership in AI,”IBM,December 12,2024.18 The economic potential of generative AI:The next productivity fr

88、ontier,McKinsey,June 2023.19 The economic potential of generative AI:The next productivity frontier,McKinsey,June 2023.20“Blackstone invests$300 million at a$5 billion valuation in DDN,AI and data intelligence solutions leaders,to fuel further rapid growth,”Blackstone,January 9,2025.New York is fost

89、ering AI growth through initiatives such as the Emerging Technology Advisory Board and Empire AI,but private sector investment remains crucial.17 AIs influence spans important industries,including professional services,real estate,information,finance,and government.In finance and insuranceNew Yorks

90、fourth-largest GDP contributorAI could drive up to 4.7 percent growth,significantly outpacing the sectors historical 1.4 percent growth rate.18With AI expected to add$340 billion to global banking revenues,New Yorks financial institutions must continue adopting AI-driven innovations to remain compet

91、itive.19 Companies such as Blackstone are already investing,allocating$300 million to the AI and data intelligence firm DDN.20 Media and entertainment could see up to 3.1 percent growth from AI,while pharmaceuticals and medical products could see up to 4.5 percent,reinforcing New Yorks strong positi

92、on in these industries(Exhibit 5).AI-driven growth in finance and insurance4.7%AI-driven growth in pharmaceuticals and medical products4.5%11New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Exhibit 5Web Exhibit of Generative AI use cases will have diferent impacts on business functions across industries.McKinse

93、y&CompanyHigh tech4.89.32.84.72.64.52.24.02.33.71.83.21.82.81.52.61.42.41.32.324046020034060110120230601001502605070601101702901001701.42.31.22.01.21.91.01.71.01.60.91.40.81.30.71.20.71.20.61.00.50.91602701803002403901101801502401502508014012020090150407070110BankingAgricultureConstructionBasic mate

94、rialsChemicalEducationTelecommunicationsHealthcareRetail4Real estateEnergyInsuranceMedia and entertainmentConsumer packaged goodsPublic and social sectorTravel,transport,and logisticsAdvanced manufacturing3Pharmaceuticals and medical productsAdvanced electronics and semiconductorsAdministrative and

95、professional servicesTotal,$billionTotal,%ofindustryrevenueGenerative AI productivity impact by business functions Marketing and salesCustomer operationsProduct and R&DSoftware engineeringSupply chain and operationsRisk and legalStrategy and fnanceCorporate IT2Talent and organization2,6004,400Note:F

96、igures may not sum to 100%,because of rounding.1Excludes implementation costs(eg,training,licenses).2Excluding software engineering.3Includes aerospace,defense,and auto manufacturing.4Including auto retail.Source:Comparative Industry Service(CIS),IHS Markit;Oxford Economics;McKinsey Corporate and Bu

97、siness Functions database;McKinsey Manufacturing and Supply Chain 360;McKinsey Sales Navigator;“The economic potential of generative AI:The next productivity frontier,”McKinsey,June 14,2023;McKinsey analysis 7601,200340470 230420 5801,200 280530 180260 120260 4050 6090 Low impactHigh impact12New Yor

98、k 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.CloudCloud is a rapidly growing upstream technology,yet only about 20 percent of IT workloads are in the cloud so far.21 The industrys growth will depend on the pace of enterprise cloud adoption and rising demand to support emerging technologies computational needs.MGIs

99、 research in 2024 found that industry revenues surged from$32 billion in 2017 to$270 billion in 2023,and the industry could generate$3 trillion in EBITDA gains for Forbes Global 2000 companies by digitalizing core operations,accelerating product development,and more.22 These gains will come from mod

100、ernizing existing systems;developing new use cases in analytics,Internet of Things,and automation;and leading early cloud adoption.National growth trends underscore cloud computings impact on New Yorks key sectors.Cloud adoption could boost EBITDA margins by up to 6 percent in finance and insurance,

101、9 percent in pharmaceuticalssupporting growth in areas such as obesity drugsand 5 percent in media and entertainment,driving digital advertising,streaming,and gaming expansion.The clouds economic potential remains significant(Exhibit 6).21“Projecting the global value of cloud:$3 trillion is up for g

102、rabs for companies that go beyond adoption,”McKinsey,November 28,2022.22“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024;“Projecting the global value of cloud:$3 trillion is up for grabs for companies that go beyond adoption,”McKinsey,November 28,2022.23“The next big arenas of competition,”M

103、GI,October 23,2024.24“Unlocking the industrial potential of robotics and automation,”McKinsey,January 6,2023.RoboticsRobotics,another potential future arena,is benefiting from a large influx of investment capital that is expected to fuel growth.The entire robotics industrylargely made up of industri

104、al robots,automated guided vehicles,and autonomous mobile robotsgenerated$21 billion in revenue in 2022 but could grow to$190 billion to$910 billion,depending on the scenario,a CAGR of 13 to 23 percent.23Robotics growth could have a significant impact on New York,partially because the region is home

105、 to so many retail and consumer goods companies that are now adopting automation technologies.In a 2022 McKinsey industrial sector survey,23 percent of retail and consumer goods respondents said they planned to invest more than$500 million in automation(Exhibit 7).Prioritizing robotics will be key t

106、o accelerating e-commerce growth,from pick-and-pack operations to delivery.Robotics could also have major effects on life sciences,healthcare,and pharmaceuticals,which account for about 28 percent of US automation investment and are poised to propel growth in areas such as obesity drugs.24Cloud adop

107、tion could boost EBITDA margins by up to 6 percent in finance and insurance,9 percent in pharmaceuticals and 5 percent in media and entertainment.13New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Exhibit 6Web MCK259151 Future of New YorkExhibit of Clouds impact on enterprise EBITDA varies by sector,based on th

108、e dynamics of industry competition.McKinsey&CompanySource:“Projecting the global value of cloud:$3 trillion is up for grabs for companies that go beyond adoption,”McKinsey,November 28,2022Projected 2030 average EBITDA margin for US industries,%InfrastructureBasic materialsElectric power andnatural g

109、asAerospace and defenseConsumer:Consumerpackaged goodsChemicalsConsumer:RetailHealthcare systemsand servicesMedia and entertainmentTransport and logisticsBankingAutomotiveand assemblyInsuranceTelecommunicationsAdvanced electronics/semiconductorsOil and gasTravelHigh techPharmaceuticals andmedical pr

110、oducts2334444555556778889151935111920972218361114322218292936High impact(7%+increasein EBITDA)Medium impact(46%increasein EBITDA)Marginal impact(23%increasein EBITDA)Starting EBITDA marginIncrease in EBITDA margin14New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Exhibit 7McKinsey&CompanyLogistics and fulfllmen

111、tAutomotiveRetail and consumer goodsLife sciences,healthcare,and pharmaceuticalsAverage share of investment in automation,by sector,%of capital spendingAnticipated amount of investment in automation over next 5 years,by sector,%of respondentsFood and beverageLogistics and fulfllmentAutomotiveRetail

112、and consumer goodsLife sciences,healthcare,and pharmaceuticalsFood and beverage1510202530354854232323383838158383115152315251512Past 5 yearsNext 5 yearsSource:McKinsey Global Industrial Robotics Survey,65 senior leaders and executives in automotive;food and beverage;life sciences,healthcare,and phar

113、maceuticals;logistics and fulfllment;and retail and consumer goods sectors,August 2022;“Unlocking the industrial potential of robotics and automation,”McKinsey,January 6,2023Automation will account for 25 percent of industrial companies capital spending over the next fve years.$25 million$25 million

114、$99 million$100 million$499 million$500 millionArenas that will improve efficiency and daily lives of New YorkersAdvancements in this next group of arenas can directly improve the lives of New Yorks citizens and consumers,which can also make the region more productive overall.EVs and autonomous vehi

115、cles,along with future air mobility,could reshape urban transit,cut emissions,and lower travel costs but may also disrupt jobs.Modular construction could help ease New Yorks housing shortage by reducing apartment costs,though success depends on zoning and regulatory shifts.Our MGI research estimates

116、 that in a high scenario these three industries alone could approach$5 trillion in revenue globally by 2040.To maximize benefits,leaders across all industries should foster broad access and alignment with the regions policy goals.While these innovations offer significant advantages,careful planning

117、will be needed to prevent them from exacerbating inequalities.The future of urban mobility in New YorkAs New York grapples with emissions,congestion,and evolving transit needs,emerging transportation technologiesEVs,SAVs,and future air mobilitycould transform urban mobility.These innovations promise

118、 efficiency,sustainability,and convenience but also pose infrastructure and significant policy challenges.15New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.Reducing gas-powered vehicles is critical because New Yorks roughly two million vehicles contribute significantly to emissions.25 Today,in the United State

119、s,an EV emits less CO2 on average than a combustion vehicle over its entire life cycle,26 but widespread adoption requires significant expansion of charging infrastructure.With EV use on track to grow tenfold in five years,the current 160,000 charging ports must scale to at least 12.9 million.And th

120、e New York region will need to address power sources and shortfalls in total capacity.Our research suggests that SAVs,including autonomous taxis and public transit,could capture up to 51 percent of the global shared-mobility market in some communities,offering cost savings and 24/7 availability.27 H

121、owever,they may also increase congestion by logging empty miles.Thoughtful regulation will be needed to integrate SAVs without worsening traffic conditions and while addressing workforce disruptions.Future air mobilitysuch as electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft(eVTOLs),supersonic transpor

122、t,and delivery dronescould redefine urban transit and logistics.eVTOLs may offer premium intracity travel,while delivery drones could revolutionize package and food transport.However,these advances may also disrupt traditional jobs in courier and delivery services.To fully realize the benefits of th

123、ese innovations,New York must invest in infrastructure,develop policies to manage congestion,and ensure 25“New York Citys Green Dividend,”CEOs for Cities,April 2010.26 Jarod C.Kelly et al.,“Cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of U.S.light-duty vehicle-fuel pathways:a greenhouse gas emissions and econ

124、omic assessment of current(2020)and future(2030-2035)technologies,”Argonne National Laboratory,November 1,2023.27“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.28“The next big arenas of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.29“Cost of Living City Ranking 2024,”Mercer,2024.30“The next big arenas

125、 of competition,”MGI,October 23,2024.equitable access while mitigating job displacement.Thoughtful planning will be key to making urban mobility more efficient and sustainable.Modular constructionAnother arena of the future includes modular construction.New York,like other global urban hubs,faces a

126、housing shortage and affordability crisis as rising demand outpaces construction.Modular constructiona form of prefabrication that includes building 2D or 3D modules off-site for on-site assemblycould boost productivity,cutting construction time by 20 to 50 percent and reducing costs when executed c

127、orrectly.28 This could help slow the rise in housing costs,increase the speed of new development,and improve overall accessibility.As the most expensive region in the United States,29 New Yorks housing challenges stem from both high demand and significant supply constraints.While modular constructio

128、n can help only when projects are approved,it often requires fewer skilled workers and smaller construction areas,addressing labor shortages where 20 open jobs exist for every new hire.30To realize its potential,modular construction needs supportive policies that promote on-site assembly,reliable pa

129、rtnerships with developers and contractors,off-site manufacturing,and efficient transport systems.With these in place in addition to the consistent advance in materials and building technology,a new era of housing development is possible.16New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.The future of New York

130、Starts todayAs New York enters a new era of reinvention,it stands at a crossroadspoised to leverage groundbreaking advances that will shape its future for decades.Strengthening its global position in high-growth sectors such as digital advertising,e-commerce,gaming,cybersecurity,and breakthrough dru

131、gs for obesity will require strategic investments in technology and workforce development.To capitalize on opportunities in emerging and disruptive fields such as robotics,AI,and the cloudindustries poised to transform the economyleaders must prioritize targeted investments,including bold and strate

132、gic partnerships.Innovations in urban efficiency,including modular construction,air mobility,and shared autonomous transportation,demand visionary leadership to reimagine daily life for millions of New Yorkers.By leveraging its legacy of creativity and investing in technology,infrastructure,and,most

133、 important,its workforce,New York can continue to set new global standards for urban reinvention.Embracing innovation,developing talent,and advancing equity will unlock unprecedented economic and social potential.After four centuries of transformation,the future remains New Yorks to shapeboldly,equi

134、tably,and without limits.Designed by McKinsey Global Publishing Copyright 2025 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Anthony Shorris is a partner in McKinseys New York office,where Brooke Daniels is a partner,Maurice Obeid is a senior partner,and Yael Taqqu is a senior partner and managing partner.Ke

135、vin Russell is a senior fellow of the McKinsey Global Institute and an associate partner in the Carolinas office.The authors wish to thank Jesse Kallins,Lamine Thiam,Robyn Wong,Sapna Thakker,and Suhayl Chettih for their contributions to this article.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights App17New York 2040:Time to reinvent.Again.