《安聯（Allianz）：全球企業破產報告：2024年狀況與未來2年預測（英文版）（30頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《安聯（Allianz）：全球企業破產報告：2024年狀況與未來2年預測（英文版）（30頁）.pdf（30頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、18 March 2025Allianz ResearchThe corporate battlefield:Global insolvencies in times of war economicsAllianz Research22Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 10-182025-2026:The rise in global insolvencies is not overPage 19-27 Regional outlooksPage 5-9 In 2024,business insolvencies increased by doubl

2、e digits in one out of two countries18 March 20253 After surging by+10%in 2024,our Global Insolvency index is set to rise by+6%in 2025 and+3%in 2026 as the delayed easing of interest rates and increased uncertainties keep companies under pressure.The number of business insolvencies rebounded in four

3、 out of five countries in 2024.The US stood out with a major rise(+22%)and the Eurozone also posted a noticeable acceleration(+19%),particularly in France(+17%),Germany(+23%)and Italy(+45%).The UK saw a reduced number of cases(-5%)and China recorded an upside trend reversal of+3%.In Western Europe,n

4、early half of sectors have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels of business insolvencies,with the biggest increases in 2024 seen in transportation,construction and B2B services.Looking ahead,the delayed easing of interest rates and increased uncertainty will leave companies in wait-and-see mode,reduc

5、ing activity and threatening already fragile firms.North America and Asia are expected to drive the rise in business insolvencies(US:+11%to 25,580 cases in 2025).Western Europe will also face another rise in 2025(+3%)for the fourth consecutive year,before seeing a modest improvement in 2026(-3%),a t

6、rend mirrored by Central and Eastern Europe.In Germany and Italy,business insolvencies would continue to increase in 2025(+10%and 17%respectively,to 24,300 and 14,000 cases)and 2026(+2%and+2%),but the fiscal stimulus announced in Germany could limit this outlook.In France,insolvencies would reach a

7、new historical high in 2025 with 67,500 cases(+2%),before falling by-4%in 2026.In the UK,where insolvencies reached a 10-year high in 2023,the number of insolvencies will decrease moderately again in 2025(-3%),before a larger improvement in 2026(-7%).Rising insolvencies will put 2.3mn jobs directly

8、at risk globally in 2025(+120k compared to 2024),followed by a marginal rise in 2026(+20k).We calculate this based on the average number of employees per firm,the share of companies that go into a liquidation phase immediately(72%on average)and the share of people laid off in a restructuring phase(3

9、2%on average).Western Europe(1.1mn)would lead this global count,ahead of North America(450k),with both regions recording a 10-year high,and followed by Central and Eastern Europe(370k)and Asia(320k),which have both been recording a moderately increasing annual number since 2022.Globally,the main sec

10、tors at risk are construction,retail and services.If interest rates remain high for longer,the lower availability of credit could lead to even more insolvencies.Access to credit allows firms to refinance liabilities,bridge revenue shortfalls and avoid bankruptcies,particularly during economic downtu

11、rns.Although we expect interest rates to decline both in Europe and the US,inflationary risks,especially in the US,could slow down the pace of rate cuts.If borrowing costs rise and make credit less accessible,this could lead to a slowdown in credit growth,tightening financial conditions and increasi

12、ng default risks for highly leveraged firms.Our estimates suggest that a 1%decrease in credit increases insolvencies by about+3%in the US,+0.4%in Germany,+1%in the UK and 2%in France in the next three months.ExecutivesummaryAno Kuhanathan Head of Corporate Research ano.kuhanathanallianz-Ana Boata He

13、ad of Economic Research ana.boataallianz-Maxime Lemerle Lead Analyst for Insolvency Researchmaxime.lemerleallianz-Pierre LebardPublic affairs managerpierre.lebardallianz-Allianz Research4 A full-fledged trade war could also push global insolvencies up by about+8%in 2025 and 2026.Our insolvency outlo

14、ok could deteriorate should the European economy perform weaker than expected,with a stronger lack of momentum,or if there is weaker resilience in APAC and larger headwinds from China,as well as if the outlook for the US deteriorates further.Geopolitics could also be a major factor of turbulence,wit

15、h the ongoing conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East,tensions in the South-China-Sea and political uncertainties in Taiwan.Trade uncertainty and potential tariffs have already contributed to increase our global forecasts by+1.4pp for both 2025 and 2026.Yet,a full-fledged trade war would lea

16、d to an additional+2.1pp and+4.8pps increase to+7.8%and+8.3%globally in 2025 and 2026.For 2025-2026,this would mean+6,800 additional cases in the US and+9,100 in Western Europe.Europe could benefit from increasing defense spending,though the positive impact could be limited to a small number of sect

17、ors.The surge in European defense spending presents both an opportunity and a challenge.If funds are directed toward domestic production,technological development and supply-chain expansion,the economic benefits could be substantial.However,capacity constraints in European defense industries mean th

18、at a significant portion of spending is currently flowing to foreign suppliers,limiting to some extent the immediate fiscal multiplier effect.Historically,sustained defense investment has driven industrial growth,as seen in France and Germany during the Cold War.Today,increased domestic procurement

19、could revitalize aerospace,heavy machinery,metals and electronics.The metals and chemicals sectors will also see higher demand for steel,aluminum and composites,while advanced technology firms in avionics,semiconductors and cybersecurity could also gain from defense-related tech and R&D spending.Con

20、struction would benefit from infrastructure projects such as base expansions,airfield upgrades and naval port modernizations,while transport and logistics services may see moderate gains due to increased military mobility and deployment activities.In contrast,consumer-driven sectors will experience

21、minimal direct impact,while healthcare could face budgetary trade-offs if defense spending leads to fiscal reallocation.Overall,the positive boost for demand in the sectors mentioned above and its spillovers could reduce insolvencies by-0.4pp and-1.0pp in Europe,sparing around 3,700 firms provided t

22、hat domestic demand for other sectors holds up and governments adopt good payment discipline.Meanwhile,regulatory changes could also shape long-term insolvency trends in Europe.In an unusually bold move,the European Commission announced a new 28th legal regime,which would exist alongside the nationa

23、l legal systems of the 27 EU member states.The idea behind this concept is to create an optional legal framework that businesses and individuals across the EU could choose to operate under,simplifying cross-border transactions and reducing legal fragmentation.The proposal is likely to focus on putti

24、ng forward a unique digital identity recognized across all EU member states,and a harmonized legal framework for corporate law,insolvency,labor laws,and possibly taxation.While this will not have a strong impact on insolvencies in the short term,a 28th regime should intensify competition within the

25、internal market in the longer term and structurally increase insolvencies in less competitive regions.Additionally,far reaching changes in the regulatory framework on insolvencies should be announced in the Commissions upcoming communication on completing the“Saving and Investment Union”and could le

26、ad to higher insolvencies in less stringent jurisdictions,who will be pressured to comply with the new EU rules.Meanwhile,limiting payment terms to 30 days remains under discussion in Brussels.Movement on this front could accentuate insolvencies in an already fragile region through an increase in th

27、e liquidity gap.18 March 20255Figure 01:Global and regional insolvency indices,yearly level,basis 100:2016-2019 averageeSource:Allianz Research4060801001201401601802016-19avg2020202120222023202420252026North AmericaLatin AmericaWestern EuropeCentral&Eastern EuropeAPAC excluding ChinaChinaAfricaGloba

28、lFigure 02:Insolvency heat map 2024(left)and 2025(right)Source:Allianz ResearchTrkiyeItalyGermanyAustraliaIrelandAustriaLuxembourgBrazilU.S.Canada(+20%and more)New ZealandHong-KongSingaporeSwedenLatviaNetherlandsColombiaNoticeablyRussiaEstoniaFranceincreasingJapan(+10%to+20%)South KoreaSwitzerlandCz

29、echiaChinaBelgiumFinlandIncreasingLithuaniaNorwayMorocco(0%to+10%)PortugalRomaniaPolandSpainChileBulgariaHungaryDecreasingIndiaDenmarkUKSouth AfricaSlovakiaTaiwanVery low levelLow levelHigh levelVery high level(more than-15%)(-15%to 0%)(0%to+15%)(+15%and more)2024 expected change(y/y)Strongly increa

30、sing2024 expected level compared to 2016-19NoticeablyRussiaItalyBrazilincreasing(10%)TrkiyeUSGermanyIncreasingChileChinaSwitzerland(+5%to+10%)TaiwanLuxembourgNew ZealandMoroccoCzechiaIndiaBulgariaAustriaLatviaRomaniaIrelandEstoniaLithuaniaNetherlandsFrancePortugalNorwayHong-KongIncreasingSlovakia(+0

31、%to+5%)South KoreaSpainDecreasingSouth AfricaDenmarkBelgiumAustraliaCanadaColombiaFinlandHungaryJapanPolandSingaporeSwedenUKVery low levelLow levelHigh levelVery high level(more than-15%)(-15%to 0%)(0%to+15%)(+15%and more)2025 expected change(y/y)2025 expected level compared to 2016-19Allianz Resear

32、ch6In 2024,business insolvencies As expected,2024 recorded another high-speed and broad-based increase in business insolvencies.The number of business insolvencies rebounded in four out of five countries in 2024,with most recording a double-digit increase for the full year.Interestingly,the upside t

33、rend remained well on track every quarter,with a still noticeable increase in Q4(+7%y/y)despite the basis effect from the previous year(+14%y/y).Overall,our Global Insolvency Index surged by+10%y/y for the full year 2024,from+7%in 2023,ending the year 12%above its 2016-2019 average(but 12%below its

34、level during the Great Financial Crisis).This outcome is close to our previous expectations(+1pp compared to December and-1pp compared to September)as the end-of-year dynamic has led to more cases than anticipated,notably in Turkey,Italy,Switzerland and the US,which have been roughly compensated by

35、less cases than anticipated for India,increased by double digits in Russia and Canada.Regionally,these trends translated into increases across all regions.North America(+23%y/y)and Latin America(+15%)both boosted the global rebound,with the US recording a major rise(+22%).In Asia(+3%),the upside tre

36、nd reversal in China(+3%)reinforced the increase observed in most other Asian countries,notably Japan(+15%)and Australia(+41%).In parallel,Western Europe remained a key contributor to the global rise despite a slower rebound(+12%y/y),the softer pace resulting mainly from the reduced number of cases

37、in the UK(-5%)while the Eurozone posted a noticeable acceleration(+19%),particularly in France(+17%),Germany(+23%)and Italy(+45%).More precisely,four out of five countries,together accounting for 75%of global GDP,posted a rise in business insolvencies in 2024(+20%y/y on average,following+30%in 2023)

38、,with two-thirds of them experiencing an increase of more than+10%.The one out of two countries 1 See our previous insolvency report Global Insolvency Outlook:The ebb and flow of the insolvency wave18 March 20257-60%-45%-30%-15%0%15%30%45%60%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42019

39、20202021202220232024North AmericaLatin AmericaWestern EuropeCentral&Eastern EuropeAPAC excluding ChinaChinaAfricaGlobalSource:Allianz ResearchFigure 03:Global and regional indices,quarterlyA broad-based rise across sectors,with few escaping the(upward)national trend.While not an absolute rule,the co

40、untry-wide situation often sets the trend for most sectors,with differences in intensity and timing.As a result,in the current catching-up phase,most sectors are seeing rising insolvencies.Europe is emblematic of this trend.Looking at the eight main economic sectors of our sample of 27 countries,we

41、observe the broad-based rise in insolvencies across European sectors,with 66%(i.e.143 out of the 216 sectors)recording an increase over the full year 2024 compared to 2023 and more than 110 of them still on the rise in the last quarter of 2024.Overall,hospitality,trade,construction,B2C services and

42、industry posted a rise in half of the European countries,while information&communication,transportation&storage and B2B services posted a rise in 80%of them.largest increases occurred in Singapore,Trkiye,Italy,Australia and New Zealand,in relative terms(+46%y/y,+45%,+45%,41%and+40%,respectively),and

43、 in France,Germany and the US and Germany in absolute terms(+9,401 cases,+4,186 and+4,178,respectively).The few exceptions were Chile,Hungary,India,Taiwan,Denmark,Slovakia,South Africa,Bulgaria and the UK.In these countries,the decrease in annual business insolvencies ranged from-4%y/y(Bulgaria)to-3

44、7%y/y(Chile),with an average decline of-16%y/y.However,they account for a limited share of global GDP(9%)and thus of our Global Insolvency Index(11%),moderately contributing to lower the annual increase of our headline indicator.Allianz Research8(*)non-seasonally adjusted numbers;colored cells indic

45、ate a higher level compared to 2016-2019 averageSources:Destatis,ONS,SCB,Eurostat,Allianz ResearchFigure 04:2024 number of insolvencies,y/y change in%and comparison with 2016-19 average level,selected European countries2 Firms with an annual turnover exceeding EUR50mn,based on the reporting of Allia

46、nz Trade business units3 The 2020-2021 figures were boosted by a few significant cases such as HNA and Evergrande in China.The 2015-2023 average stands at EUR585mnIndustryConstructionTradeTransport&storageAccommod.&food service activitiesInformation&communic.Finance,insurance,real estate,B2B activit

47、iesEducation,human health&social work activitiesALL SECTORSBelgium4171212-2196-28Bulgaria-3-331017-46-25-29-73Czechia1211141-436192813Denmark-26-15-27-13-7-23-23-12-19Germany24171814201530820Spain-1131020125617312France8251431101624917Italy17312018201910219Luxembourg3026-3-25950246516Netherlands3829

48、19274136372230Austria331618182122312823Portugal22-3-413766117Romania3190132281569Finland10-4023111164Sweden16189162323352621Norway2665-142219-204UK-2-8-9-1-680-12-5Transportation&storage stands out with a strong catch-up above pre-pandemic levels(2016-2019 average)in several countries(15),along with

49、 construction(11)and accommodation(11).Western European countries recorded the largest numbers of sectors already above pre-pandemic levels of business insolvencies,notably the UK,France,Spain,Sweden,Belgium and Austria.In the Americas,Canada,for example,also saw major sectors posting double-digit i

50、ncreases in bankruptcies of over+30%,such as real estate,B2B services,wholesale,transport and storage,while services posted double-digit increases in Brazil.In Asia,this was the case in Japan,where several non-financial sectors recorded increases of between+15%(manufacturing,retail,information and c

51、ommunication)and over+25%(wholesale).Large firms have not been immune,setting a 10-year high record in the number of major insolvencies,driven by cases in services,retail and construction Globally,the number of major insolvencies kept on increasing quarter after quarter in 2024,with Q4 largely surpa

52、ssing the pre-pandemic average level and marking the second-largest quarterly total since the start of our monitoring in 2015.For the entire year,major insolvencies rose by+30%y/y,totaling 474 cases globally.This represents a new annual record since 2015,with more than one case every 19 hours.Meanwh

53、ile,the combined turnover of insolvent major companies reached EUR187bn from EUR175bn in 2023(+7%y/y),with the average turnover totaling slightly below EUR400mn,compared to EUR463mn for the 2015-2019 average,fueling the risk of domino effects on suppliers and subcontractors.Western Europe played a k

54、ey role in this global count,with 305 out of the 474 cases reported over the year(93 in Germany,62 in Italy,56 in the UK and 47 in France),followed by North America(139,mostly in the US)and Asia-Pacific(70).Notably,the US remained at the forefront with the highest number of major insolvencies,with 1

55、1 out of the top 20 insolvencies of the year,ahead of China(4)and Western Europe(4).Most importantly,the top three sectors contributing to the global count were in Western Europe:services(54 cases),retail(41)and construction(40).Asia had a significant number of cases in construction(19)and services(

56、10)while the US continued to record large insolvencies in services(19)and retail(12).Globally,paper stood out with the largest severity in terms of turnover(EUR629mn on average),followed by electronics(EUR612mn)and retail(EUR596mn).18 March 20259395538694484657174939082848579878974859475143114916662

57、59716955588889879792107110127130-20 40 60 80 100 120 140020406080100120140Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42015201620172018201920202021202220232024Between EUR 50mn and EUR 99mn in turnoverBetween EUR 100mn and EUR

58、1bn in turnoverAbove EUR 1 bn in turnoverCumulative turnover in EURbn(rhs)Source:Allianz ResearchFigure 05:Major insolvencies,half yearly number,by size of turnoverAgrifoodAutomotiveChemicalsCommoditiesComputers&TelecomConstructionElectronicsEnergyHousehold equipmentMachinery/EquipmentMetalsTranspor

59、t equipmentPharmaceuticalsPaperRetailServicesTextileTransportation-100 200 300 400 500 600 700020406080100Average turnover(EURmn,2024)Major insolvencies in number,2024Source:Allianz ResearchFigure 06:Major insolvencies by sector,number of cases(x axis)and average turnover(y axis,EURmn),FY 2024Allian

60、z Research10Figure 07:2024 business insolvencies,annual changes in%46%45%45%41%40%37%32%31%29%29%25%24%23%22%22%18%17%17%17%17%16%15%13%12%10%10%9%8%8%7%5%5%5%3%3%0%-4%-5%-6%-7%-19%-20%-23%-25%-37%-50%0%50%SingaporeTrkiyeItalyAustraliaNew ZealandBrazilIrelandNetherlandsLuxembourgCanadaHong KongSwede

61、nGermanyAustriaU.S.SwitzerlandLatviaSouth KoreaGreeceFranceRussiaJapanEstoniaColombiaMoroccoGlobalRomaniaPolandBelgiumCzechiaFinlandLithuaniaPortugalSpainChinaNorwayBulgariaUnited KingdomSouth AfricaSlovakiaDenmarkTaiwanIndiaHungaryChileSource:Allianz Research18 March 2025112025-2026:The rise in glo

62、bal Looking ahead,we expect an extended rise in business insolvencies globally in 2025 and 2026(+6%and+3%respectively),resulting in five successive years of increasing insolvencies.This global rise in insolvencies would be driven by primarily by North America(+9%and+5%,respectively),boosted by the U

63、S(+11%and+6%),and Asia(+5%and+6%),notably in China where business insolvencies should keep on increasing from the low levels reached in 2023.Western Europe is expected to experience another rise in 2025(+3%)for the fourth consecutive year,before seeing a modest improvement in 2026(-3%),a trend mirro

64、red by Central and Eastern Europe(-3%and-4%,respectively).In 2025,the upward momentum would remain broad-based.Two-thirds of countries,together accounting for 69%of global GDP,will still post a rise in business insolvencies in 2025(+7%y/y in simple average for the countries concerned,following+20%in

65、 2024),with half of them experiencing an increase of less than+10%.The largest increases would occur in Russia,Trkiye,Italy,Brazil,the US and Germany in relative terms(+24%y/y,+20%,+17%,13%,11%and+10%,respectively),while decreases would remain limited,moderate(-5%in average)and mostly concentrated i

66、n countries that already recorded top levels in 2024,such as Canada,the Nordics,the UK,Japan and Australia.Our forecasts for 2026 indicate a more widespread downside trend,albeit a limited one(-7%y/y in simple average).We expect a majority of countries to post a decrease in business insolvencies,and

67、 several countries to see a stable number of insolvencies(Switzerland,Portugal,Greece,Lithuania,Latvia,South Africa and Morocco).Exceptions would be limited,with twice fewer economies on the upside in 2026(13)compared to 2025(30).However,the watch list for markets at risk of seeing an increase in in

68、solvencies notably includes the US(+6%y/y),China(+10%),Germany(+2%),Russia(+16%),Italy(+2%)and Brazil(+5%).This watch list of large and smaller economies is accounting not only for a significant share of global GDP(60%),and thus of our headline indicator(69%),but also for major share of each regiona

69、l GDP,leading Western Europe and Central&Eastern Europe to be the only two regions to post a downside trend reversal.business insolvencies is not overAllianz Research12(*)GDP threshold:GDP growth momentum required to stabilize the number of insolvencies prior to the pandemicSource:Allianz ResearchFi

70、gure 09:Level of GDP stabilizing insolvencies vs 2025-26 GDP forecasts,US,Canada and selected European countries-101234U.S.GermanyFranceUKItalySpainNetherlandsBelgiumSwitzerlandAustriaSwedenDenmarkNorwayPortugalEurozone202320242025f2026fGDP threshold*The persistent lack of economic momentum,which is

71、 sustaining price competition and putting pressure on profitability,is fueling the risk of insolvency for the most fragile firms.In several countries,the level of activity anticipated for the quarters ahead is unlikely to reach the minimum that has historically been required to at least stabilize th

72、e number of insolvencies,with still-subdued GDP growth in particular in the US(+2.2%in 2025),the Eurozone(+1.1%)and emerging markets,including China(+4.6%).Based on long-term sensitivities(see Figure 09),the US would need+0.1pp and+0.5pp in additional GDP growth in 2025 and 2026,respectively,to stab

73、ilize its number of insolvencies.For the Eurozone,it would be+0.4pp in 2025 in average,from+0.7pp in 2024,with most countries only gradually reducing the GDP gap compared to 2024,but France and Spain still enlarging the gap.This lack of economic momentum is likely to sustain competition and limit pr

74、icing power,softening revenue growth and only moderately weakening pressure on profitability in other words,keeping insolvencies at high levels for several quarters.Source:Allianz ResearchFigure 08:Global insolvency index,yearly level,basis 100:2015160 100 160 141 149 154 -20 40 60 80 100 120 140 16

75、0 1800002040608101214161820222426Average 2000-202318 March 2025134 As a reminder,the normalization was largely anticipated for 2023 and 2024 since the numbers of insolvencies observed in 2020 and 2022 were artificially lowered by the massive state support offered to firms,first during the Covid-19 c

76、risis and then following the shockwaves from the war in Ukraine,in particular on energy prices in Europe.This state support allowed firms to avoid declaring bankruptcy but by doing so it created a backlog of potential future insolvencies among some of the non-viable firms that benefited from the sup

77、port,mainly small and medium enterprises(SMEs)The clearance of the post-Covid backlog of insolvencies also remains a potentially upward factor in several advanced economies.Several figures suggest that more countries are potentially done or closer to the end of the catch-up that was expected on top

78、of the back-to-normal number of cases.First,almost one out of two countries posted more insolvencies in 2024 than observed during the Great Financial Crisis(2008-2010 average),the last period of severe economic turbulence,notably Switzerland,Sweden,Luxembourg,Belgium,Italy,France and Finland in West

79、ern Europe even if at a global level our insolvency index ended 2024 below its GFC level by 12%.Secondly,the number of countries registering more insolvencies in annual terms than observed prior to the pandemic(2016-2019 average)now stands at two out of three at the start of 2025,compared to one out

80、 of two countries at the start of 2024.For half of these countries,this surplus largely exceeds 10%,notably the advanced economies of Western Europe,with Sweden leading the way(+62%above the 2016-2019 average),followed by Switzerland(+60%),Finland(+39%),the UK(+30%),Austria(+30%)and to a lesser exte

81、nt several others,including France,Spain,Belgium and Germany as well as in Japan(+20%),Australia(+56%),Canada(+73%)and South Korea(+144%).At a global level,our headline index stood 12%above its 2016-2019 average at the end of 2024,reinforcing the idea that several countries could be closer to their

82、peak.Yet,a quick comparison with 2016-2019 levels shows that,between 2020 and 2022,support measures for firms spared the equivalent of three-quarters of insolvencies in countries such as the US,Germany,Austria,Norway,Portugal and New Zealand,and the equivalent of one year of insolvencies usually rep

83、orted in Australia,the Netherlands,France,Ireland and Italy.In other words,this means that only half of the countries have more than compensated for the missing insolvencies of the overall Covid-19 period and the shockwaves from the war in Ukraine.This is the case notably for the UK,Spain,Denmark an

84、d Canada,but not yet in particular for the US,Germany,France,Italy and many other European countries.(*)Countries in bold are above GFC level of insolvencies in 2024 Source:Allianz ResearchFigure 10:2024 level of insolvencies vs pre-pandemic average(x-axis),post-covid clearance of the backlog(y-axis

85、)and GFC level(*)ChileBulgariaColombiaChinaCanadaFinlandDenmarkMoroccoHong-KongPolandHungarySingaporeUKSlovakiaSouth KoreaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandGreeceCzechiaAustriaAustraliaIndiaItalyEstoniaBelgiumLatviaGermanyBrazilLithuaniaIrelandFranceNorwayJapanLuxembourgPortugalNetherlandsRomaniaNew ZealandRuss

86、iaUSSouth AfricaTaiwanTrkiyeLessMore2020-2024 sum vs counterfactuel since 20202024 vs pre-pandemic(2016-2019 average)Above GFC level in 2024MoreLessAllianz Research14In addition,the dynamism of business creation has also mechanically increased the potential for more insolvencies.Business creation ha

87、s accelerated since the pandemic in most countries,thanks to various factors such as the rise of remote work and e-commerce(fueling transportation and tech-driven businesses),the push for sustainability(supporting green tech and energy sectors)and specific national programs dedicated to re-boost sta

88、rtups and SME creation.In Europe,for example,new business registrations proved to be+9%higher in 2021-2024,compared to 2016-2019,with the Eurozone in a good position(+11%)thanks notably to France(+49%),the Netherlands(+28%),Belgium(+17%),Portugal(+13%)and Spain(+12%).Four sectors clearly led the dyn

89、amic,namely information/communication(+28%),transportation/storage(+26%),real estate/B2B services(+16%)and education/human health/social work activities(+12%).Dynamic business creation will push up the natural rise in business insolvencies as(i)startups and younger firms are often at higher risk of

90、facing financial difficulties and insolvency compared to their more established Figure 11:Gap with 2016-2019 average level in business insolvencies in%,by year,in number of advanced economies(left)and number of emerging markets(right)Source:Allianz Research-25-20-15-10-50510152020212022202320242025f

91、2026fAbove+30%+20 to+30%+10 to 20%,+5 to+10%0 to+5%Still below-25-20-15-10-50510152020212022202320242025f2026fcounterparts,which can withstand weak economic cycles better,and as(ii)a higher number of firms often lead to more fragile firms when the economic and financial cycle is weakening,i.e.a high

92、er risk of zombie companies,and thereby capital misallocation and reduced overall productivity.More concretely,there are four types of countries in Europe:(i)those where the stock of businesses is shrinking,such as Germany;(ii)those where the stock of businesses is growing much more slowly than busi

93、ness bankruptcies,such as Sweden and Finland;(iii)those where the dynamics of bankruptcies and the evolution of the stock of businesses are close in intensity,such as Spain and Austria and(iv)finally,those where the stock of businesses is growing faster than business bankruptcies,such as the Netherl

94、ands,Portugal and,to a lesser extent,France and Belgium.It is in these last two categories that the potential for bankruptcies has increased,all other things being equal.18 March 202515Figure 12:Business demographic dynamic vs business insolvencies dynamic(*),selected European countries BelgiumBulga

95、riaCzechiaGermanyIrelandSpainFranceLuxembourgNetherlandsAustriaPortugalRomaniaFinlandSwedenNorway-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Annual number of insolvencies:2023 vs 2016-2019 averageNumber of firms:2023 vs 2016-2019 averageCreative destruction(*)For industry,construction and market ser

96、vices(except public administration and defense;compulsory social security;activities of membership organizations)Sources:Eurostat,Allianz ResearchInterest rates remaining high,with lower availability of credit,could worsen the outlook.When credit tightens,companies face higher borrowing costs,dimini

97、shed cash flow and greater insolvency risks.This is particularly dangerous for small enterprises and heavily indebted corporations that rely on credit for operational stability.Accordingly,the shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy in recent years has contributed to the strong rise in insolvenc

98、ies.Given the current interest rate environment and inflationary risks,central banks and policymakers face difficult trade-offs.Although we do expect the easing cycle to continue on both sides of the Atlantic,higher inflation could slow the pace,keeping the outlook for credit supply and corporate so

99、lvency uncertain.If borrowing costs rise and/or credit becomes less accessible,this could lead to a slowdown in credit growth,tightening financial conditions and increasing default risks for highly leveraged firms.Our estimates suggest that a 1%decrease in credit increases insolvencies by about+3%in

100、 the US,+0.4%in Germany,+1%in the UK and 2%in France after three months(see Figure 13).Allianz Research16And a full-fledged trade war could push global insolvencies above+7%in 2025 and 2026.Our insolvency outlook could deteriorate should the European economy perform weaker than expected,with a stron

101、ger lack of momentum,or if there is weaker resilience in APAC and larger headwinds from China,as well as if the outlook for the US deteriorates further.Geopolitics could also be a major factor of turbulence,with the ongoing conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East,tensions in the South-China-

102、Sea and political uncertainties over Taiwan.On the trade side,current frictions on tariffs have already increased our forecasts by+1.4pp for both 2025 and 2026.Yet,a full-fledged trade war,i.e.with the US effective tariff exceeding 25%,up from 9%as of early March and 2.5%prior to Trumps re-election,

103、would increase our forecasts by an additional+2.1pps and+4.8pps to+7.8%and+8.3%globally in 2025 and 2026,respectively.For 2025-2026,this would mean+6,800 additional cases in the US and+9,100 in Western Europe,with a significant contribution from France(3,100),Germany(1,000),Italy(1,000),the UK(900)a

104、nd the Netherlands(700).Rising defense spending is one bright spot for companies,although the positive impact could be limited to certain sectors.The much-anticipated surge in European defense spending presents both an opportunity and a challenge.On the one hand,it could revitalize key industrial se

105、ctors and enhance technological capabilities.On the other hand,capacity constraints and supply bottlenecks could shift much of the economic gain abroad,limiting the benefits.If European governments commit to long-term procurement plans and investment in domestic production capacity,the economic bene

106、fits could expand significantly.Investments in new production lines,advanced materials and research and development could drive innovation and spill over into civilian industries.The sectors most directly affected by increased defense spending are aerospace,heavy machinery,metals,electronics and con

107、struction(see Figure14).In contrast,consumer-driven sectors such as retail,agrifood and leisure will see little direct impact from defense spending.Overall,the positive boost to demand in selected sectors and its spillover effects could reduce insolvencies by-0.4pp and-1.0pp compared to our baseline

108、 forecasts for 2025 and 2026,sparing around 3,700 firms in Europe provided that domestic demand for other sectors holds up and governments adopt good payment discipline.Figure 13:Impact of a 1%decrease in credit on insolvencies(pps)0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%USGermanyFranceUKSources:LSGE Datast

109、ream,Allianz Research5 Based on the impact on economic growth(real GDP)and historical sensitivities between economic dynamics and business insolvencies trend 18 March 202517Figure 14:Sector impact of increased defense spending.Source:Allianz ResearchSectorDemand impactTransmission channelDefense&Tra

110、nsport EquipmentStrongly PositiveDirect procurement orders for military aircraft,tanks,ships etc.,lead to higher production.Large defense contracts boost output for prime contractors(Airbus,Dassault,KMW etc.)and their supply chains.Also drives R&D in advanced manufacturing,with potential tech spillo

111、vers.Metals&ChemicalsPositiveIntermediate demand rises for raw materials and components.Military vehicles,weapons and infrastructure require steel and metals(for armor,chassis,munitions),boosting mining,steel mills and metal fabrication.Defense needs for high-performance materials spur innovation in

112、 metallurgy and chemical propellants.Electronics&ICTPositiveTechnology procurement and R&D funding increase.Modern weapons rely on electronics(radar,avionics,semiconductors)and secure IT systems.Defense contracts for tech firms(e.g.radar systems,cybersecurity)drive revenue.Government-funded military

113、 R&D(e.g.in AI,encryption,avionics)creates innovation that can transfer to the civilian tech sector.Construction&InfrastructurePositiveInfrastructure investment for defense facilities.Expansion or upgrade of bases,barracks,ports,airfields and logistic hubs to support a larger military.Construction f

114、irms gain projects building or refurbishing military infrastructure(similar to public works spending,but defense-related).Also includes fortifications or cyber infrastructure(data centers)construction.Transport&Logistics ServicesPositiveOperational spending increases for moving troops and equipment.

115、More military exercises and deployments mean greater use of transportation services(charter flights,rail and trucking for equipment,shipping).Logistics companies may get contracts for supply-chain management and delivery of defense material.Maintenance services for new equipment also create business

116、 for technical service providers.Consumer Goods&RetailNeutralLittle direct link to defense spending.No direct government spending in this sector;any effect is indirect via higher employment/income in other sectors.Defense sector wage gains might slightly boost local consumption,but overall consumer

117、demand would be unchanged compared to the baseline.HealthcareNeutral to Slight NegativePotential budget reallocation could decrease revenues.If defense increases are funded by debt or extra revenue,these sectors stay neutral.But if funds are diverted,public services could face budget constraints.Few

118、er resources for hospitals or social security would be a negative impact.Other Manufacturing(Non-defense capital goods)Neutral to Slight NegativeCrowding-out of capacity.Sectors like machinery,automotive(for civilian use),or renewable energy equipment see no direct defense orders.They could face tig

119、hter labor and input markets if defense projects absorb engineers and materials(e.g.steel,electronics),potentially raising costs.Real Estate&Construction(civilian projects)Neutral to Slight NegativeMacroeconomic side-effects.A defense-driven deficit increase could put upward pressure on interest rat

120、es,increasing financing costs for real estate development and non-defense construction.If inflation rises due to heavy defense demand in a full-capacity economy,central banks may hike rates,cooling the housing market.However,these effects are uncertain and in absence of overheating,the impact remain

121、s neutral.Allianz Research18Figure 15:Jobs at risk due business insolvencies in 2025,in thousandsSources:OECD,SBS(Eurostat),ONS,US Census,StaCan,Allianz ResearchIn 2025,the extended rise in business insolvencies will put 2.3mn jobs directly at risk globally(+120k compared to 2024),followed by a marg

122、inal rise in 2026(+20k).We calculate this based on the average number of employees per firm,the share of companies that go into a liquidation phase immediately(72%on average)and the share of people laid off in a restructuring phase(32%on average).Western Europe(1.1mn)would lead this global count ahe

123、ad of North America(450k),both recording a 10-year high,with the largest numbers seen in France(270k),Germany(210k),Switzerland(180k)and the UK(152k).Central and Eastern Europe(370k)boosted by Russia(200k)and Asia(320k)boosted by Japan(120k)and China(130k)would follow,both at a moderately increasing

124、 annual number since 2022(+10%and+12%,respectively,compared to+18%and+34%for the Western Europe and North America).Globally,the main sectors at risk are construction,retail and services.18 March 202519A changing regulatory landscape in EuropeRegulatory changes are accompanying insolvency trends in E

125、urope.Several proposals aimed at changing the regulatory framework around payments processing,invoicing and insolvencies are under discussion,which could fundamentally change the way businesses operate in Europe.Insolvency law,which has long been governed by national legislation in the EU,reflects d

126、istinct legal traditions and economic priorities in each member state.Despite several attempts to harmonize insolvency rules throughout the EU,with the EU Insolvency Regulation(EIR)and the subsequent Directive on Preventive Restructuring Frameworks and Second Chance in 2019,insolvency laws remain fa

127、r from fully harmonized,especially in critical areas like insolvency triggers,the ranking of creditors and the treatment of secured creditors.In an unusually bold move,the European Commission announced in February that it will put forward a 28th legal regime,which would exist alongside the national

128、legal systems of the 27 EU member states,rather than replacing or harmonizing them.The idea behind this concept is to create an optional,uniform legal framework that businesses and individuals across the EU could choose to operate under,simplifying cross-border transactions and reducing legal fragme

129、ntation.The proposal is likely to focus on putting forward a unique digital identity recognized across all EU member states,and a harmonized legal framework for corporate law,insolvency,labor laws and possibly taxation.Unlike the existing European Company(SE)status,which is complex and suited for la

130、rge firms,this new framework would be tailored for startups and SMEs,enabling them to scale easily across borders without needing separate national incorporations.Challenges and political hurdles remain as an optional framework requires consensus among EU states,which may be difficult given diverse

131、legal traditions and economic interests.However,if successful,this could be a major step in the harmonization of insolvency laws in Europe.While this will not have a strong impact on insolvencies in the short term,a 28th regime should intensify competition within the internal market in the longer te

132、rm and structurally increase insolvencies in less competitive regions.Additionally,far-reaching changes in the regulatory framework on insolvencies should be announced in the Commissions upcoming communication on completing the“Saving and Investment Union”scheduled for 19 March and should tackle cri

133、tical areas such as insolvency triggers and the ranking of creditors.This could also lead to higher insolvencies in less stringent jurisdictions that will be pressured to comply with the new EU rules.Payment terms remain an important source of working capital financing for companies and have been at

134、 the forefront of policy debates in Brussels.In a move to reduce them,the European Commission introduced in September 2023 a proposal on combating late payments,which capped payment terms from 60 to 30 days across Europe and introduced strict caps and restrictions on the ability of businesses to neg

135、otiate terms.However,this proposal was criticized by different sectors for failing to maintain contractual freedom and a necessary flexibility for businesses of all sizes to negotiate in their best interest.It was also noted that different working capital requirements,production cycles and market dy

136、namics could be disrupted by such a change in payment terms and potentially increase insolvencies in markets that rely on larger payment terms for working capital financing.Indeed,companies used to long payment terms would need to seek working capital financing,which would entail a risky adjustment

137、process of obtaining a bank credit loan.The European co-legislators(European Commission,European Parliament and European Council)failed to come to an agreement after a group of member states led by Germany and Austria wrote to the European Commission and called for the withdrawal of the proposed reg

138、ulation.These member states also recommended that the Commission conduct a larger impact assessment,which“analyses all the relevant issues in-depth and justifies all policy choices made in a transparent manner”.Payment terms remain a much debated topic and further regulatory work is to be expected o

139、n the matter,with a clear risk that lowering payment terms through regulation could increase insolvencies in the short term.E-invoicing will also affect insolvencies.McKinsey estimates that a wide adoption of e-invoicing should reduce payment terms by 20%,while also reducing administrative costs fro

140、m processing invoices by 30%.Electronic invoicing(e-invoicing)refers to creating,exchanging and storing invoices digitally for business transactions.Unlike simple digitization(scanning paper invoices),e-invoicing requires a standardized format and submission through a centralized system to ensure tr

141、ansparency and efficiency in B2B transactions.It is also often a way for governments to impose reporting requirements in order to fight VAT fraud.The EU continues to work on further harmonizing e-invoicing practices across member states,and European co-legislators just approved the VAT in the Digita

142、l Age proposal(ViDA,proposed in 2022)on 12 February.This proposal is a game-changer for e-invoicing across Europe as the text introduces several key requirements,with the main one being a Single European VAT One-Stop-Shop(OSS)for the registration of a company from July 2028,and,from 1 January 2030,a

143、n EU-wide standardization of national e-invoicing systems from structured electronic invoices will be the default system for issuing invoices.Electronic invoicing will become mandatory for intra-Community transactions and member states will have greater flexibility to implement a national electronic

144、 invoicing system.Overall,these regulations are expected to improve transparency and efficiency in commercial transactions,benefiting sound businesses while shining a light on struggling ones.6 See our previous report:Global Insolvency Outlook:The ebb and flow of the insolvency wave7 See our previou

145、s report:Allianz|The cost of pay me later Allianz Research20Regional outlooks North America will lead the global rebound in business insolvencies in 2025 and 2026,with the US to prolong its rebound(+11%in 2025 and+6%in 2026,from+11%in 2024)and Canada to see a moderate decrease from the major upside

146、trend posted since 2022(-5%and-8%respectively,from+35%on average over 2022-2024).For the US,we expect the slowing of the economy and the lagging effects of the sharp tightening of financing conditions of 2022-2023 to lead to another significant rise in business insolvencies.Firms have gradually used

147、 the buffers accumulated since the strong post-Covid recovery,notably SMEs.Now,they have to face multiple new challenges,including trade policy uncertainty,tariff hikes,DOGE spending cuts,federal layoffs and curbs on immigration.At the same time,they will not get much more relief from the policy-rat

148、e cycle before 2026 and still have to adapt their business models to protect market share in a highly competitive domestic market.Tax cuts and a solid labor market would only limit the downside.This would mean a return to 27,100+insolvencies by 2026,i.e.+18%above the 2016-2019 average(23,000)though

149、this is still a low level from a historical perspective(34,000 for the 2000-2020 average,41,000 for the 1990-2020 average).Figure 16:Global and regional insolvency indices,yearly change in%Source:Allianz Research7%41%26%25%15%-6%10%23%15%11%12%3%6%9%10%3%3%5%3%5%3%-4%-3%6%GlobalNorth AmericaLatin Am

150、ericaCentral&EasternEuropeWestern EuropeAsia-Pacific20212022202320242025f2026f18 March 202521In Canada,business insolvencies marked a 15-year record high at almost 4,800 cases in 2024,i.e.significantly above(+73%)the 2016-2019 average(2,750 cases),with another large set of cases in hospitality,manuf

151、acturing and retail together accounting for four out 10 insolvencies and an impressive surge in transport and storage(+67%).This overall rise comes with the expiry of federal and provincial government financial support provided during the pandemic,which has added to the burdens on many firms,from ri

152、sing production costs to higher financing costs in a context of weakening demand.We expect a prolonged high number of insolvencies in 2025,notably with the additional trade tensions with the US.However,the year may end on a downside due to the noticeable basis effect created by the massive surge of

153、insolvencies posted in Q1 2024.The recovery in demand will support a larger reduction in the number of business insolvencies in 2026 to slightly less than 4,200 cases(-8%).In Latin America,Brazil reported a substantial jump in business insolvencies in 2024(+37%y/y),prolonging the rebound that starte

154、d in 2023(+39%),and with all sectors contributing to the trend(+30%for services,+40%for trade and+41%for manufacturing).Increasing inflation and high interest rates pushed more firms into financial distress despite the strong economic expansion.Looking ahead,we expect activity to soften and monetary

155、 policy to maintain the pressure on firms financials.Business insolvencies should continue reaching new 20-year levels in the coming quarters,with more than 4,000 and 4,200 cases in 2025 and 2026,respectively.Asia ended 2024 with higher-than-expected increases in most countries and major rises notab

156、ly in Singapore(+46%),Australia(+41%),New Zealand(+40%),Hong Kong(+25%),South-Korea(+17%)and Japan(+15%)where the rise in insolvencies remained strong in absolute terms in particular in construction(+231 insolvencies to 1,924 cases),wholesale(+254 to 1,214)and services(+389 to 3,329).India and Taiwa

157、n were exceptions for the second consecutive year.We expect 2025 to bring a moderate downside trend reversal in three countries that hit highs in 2024,namely Australia(historical high),Singapore(24-year record)and Japan(11-year record).Other countries are set to see a more(Taiwan,New Zealand)or less

158、(India,Korea,Hong Kong)significant rise,given weaker external demand and the lagging effects of prolonged high interest rates.In this context,Hong Kong should register its largest number of business insolvencies since 2010 in 2025(450 cases)and South Korea the largest since 2000(2,000 cases).At the

159、regional level,this would translate into a+5%y/y increase in 2025(+1%without China),from+3%in 2024(+3%without China),followed by+6%in 2026(-4%without China),with China mechanically playing a key role since it accounts for 61%of our regional index.We expect China to confirm in 2025-2026 the upside tr

160、end reversal which started in 2024,with a+3%rebound to 7,150 cases,still a low level compared to the record levels of 2019-2020(11,900 cases in average),but close to its pre-pandemic number(7,430 on average for 2017-2018).Despite the additional fiscal stimulus of RMB2.9trn announced for 2025,we expe

161、ct the economic slowdown to support a gradual increase in business insolvencies(+7%and+10%in 2025 and 2026,respectively),pushing them closer to 8,000 cases by 2026.Importantly,construction is likely to remain in the doldrums in 2025 despite first signs of a potential bottoming out in real estate dem

162、and,while worries are likely to expand to more export-oriented firms as the latter will continue to face headwinds from global trade due Chinas position in global supply chains.Western Europe remained a key contributor to the global rise in insolvencies in 2024 despite a slower rebound(+12%y/y),main

163、ly due to the reduced number of cases in the UK(-5%).The Eurozone posted a noticeable acceleration(+19%),particularly in France(+17%),Germany(+23%)and Italy(+45%).We expect another moderate increase at the regional level,albeit more moderate(+3%),and for the Eurozone(+6%)for the fourth consecutive y

164、ear.This would push the region noticeably above its pre-pandemic number of cases(by+23%compared to 2016-2019 average,from+20%in 2024),but the fiscal stimulus announced in Germany has the potential to limit this outlook,while the change in insolvency framework in Switzerland could increase it.Most ot

165、her countries would record a softer rise compared to 2024,in particular the core markets of France(+2%),Spain(+3%)and the Netherlands(+4%).But five countries would stand out with a downside trend reversal(the UK,Belgium,Sweden,Denmark and Finland).2026 should see a more broad-based decrease in insol

166、vencies across countries,with Germany,Italy and Ireland as main exceptions.This will mean that most countries would still post more insolvencies than in 2016-19,notably Switzerland(76%above),Sweden(35%),Austria(27%),Germany(25%),France(18%)and the UK(17%).Allianz Research22In Germany,the upside tren

167、d in business insolvencies started with a lag compared to most European peers.But it saw a noticeable acceleration in 2024(+22%from+4%in 2023),with a broad-based spike across sectors.In relative terms,the largest increases were recorded in information-communication(+46%),real estate(+52%)and health-

168、social works(+87%).But in absolute terms the sectors that stood out remained construction(17%of the total)and trade(16%),followed by B2B services,hospitality and manufacturing the latter seeing a batch of insolvencies of large/well-known firms.At this stage,we are forecasting a+10%increase to 24,300

169、 cases for 2025,and a prolonged rise in 2026(+2%to 24,900 cases),based on the likely weak exit from recession amid major structural challenges(competitivity,green transformation)and uncertainties in trade tariffs are threatening several key export-driven industries.In our full trade war scenario,how

170、ever,we would increase our forecasts by 1,000 cases for 2025-2026,all else being equal.On the other hand,the new fiscal package of the Union and SPD could play a decisive role:With a EUR500bn infrastructure fund and the easing of the debt brake,the package offers the opportunity to create financial

171、leeway and give new impetus to the German economy,ultimately reducing insolvency forecasts depending on the magnitude of the package that will be approved and the timing of its implementation.In France,business insolvencies are likely to reach a new historical high.In 2024,despite a slowdown in the

172、upward trend(to+17%after+35%in 2023),the year ended with a total of over 66,100 cases,well above pre-crisis levels(20%above 2016-2019 average)and de facto an all-time record.All sectors contributed to this rise,mostly with at a double-digit pace,notably construction(+25%),retail(+11%)and hospitality

173、(+10%)together accounting for half of the total count.These figures prove that several major factors are at play,from the catch-up effect/post-Covid normalization to the weak economic cycle,as well as specific sectorial challenges,the limited loosening of credit conditions and some difficulties in r

174、epaying state-guaranteed loans besides the high level of business creation since the pandemic.The prolonged weakness of economic growth forecasted for 2025,with limited relief from the monetary policy,is pushing our forecast up to 67,500 cases(+2%),with a limited improvement in sight for 2026(-4%to

175、64,900 cases).In the UK,business insolvencies ended 2024 with more evidence of a downside trend reversal.The country registered 26,708 cases,pointing to a first slight decrease(-5%)after three consecutive strong annual rises that pushed insolvencies to a 10-year record in 2023.Firms have been facing

176、 a succession of shocks and challenges,from Brexit-related issues and the Covid-19 shock to strong monetary tightening,sticky inflation and weak economic momentum.Interestingly,most sectors experienced this faster-than-expected trend reversal,notably the largest contributors to the global count such

177、 as construction(-8%),trade(-9%),hospitality(-6%)and manufacturing(-3%),while exceptions remained,notably utilities,information and communication,finance and insurance and administrative services.As the UKs growth momentum is not likely to recover significantly before 2026,we expect the various chal

178、lenges on the business front,notably regarding costs,wages and tariff threats,to maintain insolvencies high in 2025,with a limited decrease(-3%),before a larger relief for firms in 2026(-7%),that would translate to around 25,900 and 24,000 cases in 2025 and 2026,respectively.In Italy,the rebound in

179、business insolvencies significantly accelerated in the second half of 2024,resulting in one of the largest increases globally for the full year(to+45%,from+9%in 2023).Interestingly,this acceleration results from a broad-based surge across sectors,with most of them registering double-digit rises.The

180、largest contributors to the total were construction(+62%),manufacturing(+58%),trade(+50%)and hospitality(+39%),which stands out as the only sector to massively exceed the number of insolvencies recorded over 2012-2019.We expect this catching up to continue in Italy where business insolvencies are st

181、ill below their pre-pandemic number(by-8%end of 2024),in contrast to most European countries.The prolonged weakness of economic growth forecasted for 2025 and 2026,with limited additional relief from monetary policy,is supporting a continuous upside trend at this horizon,pushing our expectations to

182、14,000 cases for 2025(+17%)and 14,300 for 2026(+2%).We expect Spain to remain one of the few outliers compared to regional peers,with a prolonged similar number of insolvencies throughout the 2024-2026 period.Previously Spain used to see opposite trend in 2020(with a tiny decrease),2021(a massive su

183、rge)and 2023(a noticeable drop).In 2024,the resilience of the economy,partly thanks to a record season for tourism activities,was key for maintaining a rather stable number of insolvencies(+3%from-27%in 2023,with 4,671 cases).While all major sectors are already exceeding their 2016-2019 average numb

184、er of insolvencies,we expect the moderation in economic momentum to support a prolonged high level of cases with moderated changes both in 2025(+3%to 4,800 cases)and 2026(-2%to 4,700 cases).18 March 202523For Portugal,the outlook for bankruptcies is fairly similar to that of its Spanish neighbor,wit

185、h a more moderate growth in cases in 2025(+4%)and 2026(+0%)than in 2024(+5%),when the rise in bankruptcies was almost general in all the distrito notably Porto(+14%)but not in all sectors.For example,for the six sectors with the most cases,there was an increase in services(+7%),textiles(+24%)and agr

186、ifood(+4%),but a decrease in construction(-9%),retail(-1%)and transport(-3%).All in all,we expect just under 2,400 bankruptcies in 2025,which would still correspond to a slightly lower level than observed prior to the pandemic.In Benelux,the great divide is not over between the Netherlands and Belgi

187、um.In Belgium the number of business insolvencies already reached a 10-year record in 2024 with slightly more than 11,000 cases(+8%),i.e.close to the historical record of 2013(11,740),after another noticeable boost from construction(+17%),trade(+12%)and transport/logistics(+12%)but also signs of pla

188、teauing for real estate,B2C services and hospitality.Looking ahead,we expect the gradual improvement on the economic momentum and financing conditions to remain too moderate in 2025 to support a significant trend reversal in business insolvencies before 2026.We foresee a gradual return to the 2016-1

189、9 average by end of 2026,after 10,560 cases in 2025 and less than 10,000 cases in 2026.In the Netherlands,business insolvencies remain well below the past records of 2013(-55%)and 2009(-45%).Yet,they stood out again in 2024 with another substantial jump(+31%,following+52%in 2023)explained by a later

190、 start in the post-Covid catch-up.Insolvencies in professional services(+45%),construction(+29%),hospitality(+41%)and wholesale(+33%)boosted the final count to 4,270 cases,an eight-year high at 5%above the pre pandemic level.For 2025,we expect the recovery in domestic demand to be too moderate to tr

191、anslate into fewer insolvencies before 2026,and multiple Dutch firms are highly exposed to the challenging global trade context.Business insolvencies are likely to exceed 4,400 cases in 2025(+4%)before reducing to 4,100 cases in 2026(-8%).In 2024,Austria already posted a record high number of insolv

192、encies since 2009,with almost 6,600 cases resulting from a noticeable rise(+22%)for the third consecutive year(+57%and+13%in 2022 and 2023,respectively).All sectors recorded double-digit rises,notably B2B/finance services(+31%),construction(+16%),trade(+18%)and hospitality(+21%).We expect the weak e

193、xit from recession combined with the weakness of the German economy Austrias most important trading partner and the financing conditions outlook to allow for a downside trend reversal in business insolvencies in 2025.Austria is likely to end 2025 with another high of around 6,700 cases(+2%)before a

194、limited decrease below 6,500 cases in 2026(-4%).Switzerland looks set to post a new record in business insolvencies in 2025,despite the 8,659 cases already registered in 2024 after a fourth consecutive year of increases(to+18%in 2024 from+8%in 2023)with construction,trade,B2B services and hospitalit

195、y as top contributors to the global count(with 22%,18%,18%and 11%of the total,respectively).The first reason relies on the economic and financial fundamentals,due to the moderate outlook in economic growth and the prolonged strength of the Swiss franc on export-oriented firms.A second reason is the

196、change in the insolvency framework in place since January 1st,under which unpaid invoices under public law such as VAT,social security contributions,taxes-are now pursued through bankruptcy proceeding.At this stage,we anticipate the increase in insolvencies to reach at least+10%to 9,500 cases in 202

197、5,with a high probability to review this outlook with more insights on the impact of this change.In the Nordics,Sweden and Finland both experienced significant rises in insolvency cases in 2024,reaching 27-year record levels.Sweden saw a+24%increase,while Finland had a+5%rise,marking consecutive yea

198、rs of escalating insolvencies.Both countries are projected to see a moderate decline in 2025,with Swedens cases decreasing by-7%and Finlands by-4%,followed by a more substantial improvement in 2026,with reductions of-11%and-13%,respectively.However,the annual number of cases will remain historically

199、 high at 10,200 and 3,800 in 2025 in Sweden and Finland,respectively.In contrast,Denmark experienced a noticeable decline in insolvency cases in 2024,dropping by-19%from the previous years high.We expect a continued moderate decrease through 2025-2026 below 2,400 cases excluding the non-active firms

200、-for Denmark,aligning slightly above the average levels seen in the 2000s and pre-pandemic years.Our regional index for Central and Eastern Europe recorded a noticeable increase for 2024(+11%),confirming the trend posted in 2023(+25%)which already pushed insolvencies well above pre-pandemic levels.F

201、or most countries,business insolvencies were on the rise,notably the two large markets of Trkiye and Russia.In Trkiye,more than 1,350 firms(+45%)officially went bankrupt or announced composition agreements in a context of Allianz Research24Figure 17:2025 expected number of insolvencies,annual change

202、s in%Source:Allianz Research24%20%17%13%11%10%10%8%8%7%7%6%6%5%5%5%5%4%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%1%1%0%-2%-2%-3%-3%-3%-4%-4%-4%-5%-5%-5%-7%-23%-30%-10%10%30%RussiaTrkiyeItalyBrazilU.S.GermanySwitzerlandChileTaiwanChinaMoroccoGreeceGlobalLuxembourgNew ZealandLatviaCzechiaNetherlandsIrelandRomaniaPortugal

203、EstoniaSouth KoreaLithuaniaSpainBulgariaFranceAustriaHong KongSlovakiaIndiaNorwayAustraliaJapanColombiaUnited KingdomSouth AfricaPolandFinlandSingaporeBelgiumDenmarkCanadaSwedenHungaryhigh financing costs and economic slowdown which saw insolvencies rising each quarter since the exceptionally low of

204、 2023.In Russia,as expected,business insolvencies rebounded with the reducing(political)willingness and(financial)ability of the government to support businesses.The combination of the latter and the challenging context of high inflation and higher interest rate pushed business insolvencies close to

205、 8,600 cases(+16%).Regional exceptions on the downside were only Bulgaria(-4%to 485 cases),Slovakia(-7%to 1,880 cases)where insolvencies of individuals are offsetting the rise of corporate insolvencies and Hungary(-25%),with the gradual ending of the temporarily boost from proceedings relating to fi

206、rms with nil/limited turnover and dormant companies.We expect three out of four countries to see a continued rise in insolvencies in 2025,notably Russia(+24%)and Trkiye(+20%),before a broader downside trend reversal in 2026 that will benefit three out of four countries.This would push the regional i

207、ndex on the downside for Central and Eastern Europe to-4%in 2026,from+3%in 2025,still a high level from a historical perspective.In Africa,Morocco continues to anticipate a high level in corporate insolvencies.While a reduction in administrative cases i.e.those of inactive companies leveraging legal

208、 frameworks to formally dissolve may occur in the near term,local businesses are likely to face persistent challenges,notably payment delay issues,preventing a downside trend in insolvencies before 2026.On the other hand,we expect the continuous decrease in business insolvencies has been the trend i

209、n South Africa since 2020 to soften by 2026,with the lagging effects of the sharp tightening in interest rates since 2022 and the moderate economic momentum note that insolvencies reached a 35-year low in 2024.18 March 202525Figure 18:2025-26 expected number of insolvencies,selected advanced economi

210、esUnited StatesFranceItalyBelgiumGermanyThe United KingdomSpainThe Netherlands35 323 39 885 38 403 34 885 34 167 39 073 19 814 28 137 42 861 60 530 56 046 47 534 39 851 33 061 26 849 24 636 24 027 23 098 22 158 22 720 21 591 14 290 13 436 18 862 23 040 25 580 27 180 -10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 0

211、00 60 000 70 000000204060810121416182022242640 436 41 418 43 369 45 561 46 682 47 686 46 465 49 233 54 746 62 749 60 059 59 897 61 208 63 025 62 832 63 287 58 924 55 002 54 400 51 442 31 999 28 205 41 920 56 760 66 161 67 500 64 900 -10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 00000020406081

212、0121416182022242610 789 10 551 10 081 10 148 10 881 11 514 9 691 5 709 6 953 8 694 10 410 11 435 13 896 16 062 17 725 16 540 14 542 13 098 12 083 12 039 8 300 9 755 7 563 8 222 11 926 14 000 14 300 -2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 00000020406081012141618202224266 791 7

213、062 7 200 7 593 7 910 7 878 7 617 7 677 8 471 9 420 9 570 10 224 10 587 11 740 10 736 9 762 9 159 9 968 9 878 10 598 7 203 6 533 9 265 10 243 11 067 10 560 9 930 -2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000000204060810121416182022242628 235 32 278 37 260 39 320 39 213 36 843 34 137 29 160 29 291 32

214、 687 31 998 30 099 28 297 25 995 24 085 23 101 21 518 20 093 19 302 18 749 15 841 13 993 14 590 17 814 22 000 24 300 24 900 -5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000000204060810121416182022242627 641 28 786 29 017 26 964 25 711 28 068 29 803 23 973 30 398 35 147 29 892 31 026 28

215、 720 25 034 22 563 19 749 19 690 19 136 21 071 22 091 15 658 16 315 24 632 28 107 26 708 25 900 24 000 -5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 0000002040608101214161820222426755 692 945 923 853 822 813 914 2 517 4 458 4 311 5 166 6 911 8 417 5 804 4 729 4 091 3 933 3 915 4 162 3 945 5 12

216、5 6 187 4 516 4 671 4 800 4 700 -1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 00000020406081012141618202224263 579 4 330 4 963 6 386 6 648 6 780 5 941 4 602 4 637 7 987 7 147 6 883 8 346 9 431 7 621 6 006 5 012 3 867 3 633 3 792 3 177 1 818 2 145 3 271 4 270 4 450 4 100 -1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

217、 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 0000002040608101214161820222426Source:Allianz ResearchAllianz Research26Statisticalappendix(*)Index 100:2015(*)GDP 2023 weighing at current exchange rates(*)weighing at 2015 number of active firms per country(OECD and national source figures)Sources:national figures

218、,Allianz Research(f:forecasts)202320242025f2026f202320242025f2026f202320242025f2026fGLOBAL INDEX*1001291411491547%10%6%3%2%12%18%22%North America Index*31.0809910711241%23%9%5%-14%6%15%21%U.S.28.6 18 862 23 040 25 580 27 180 40%22%11%6%-18%0%11%18%Canada2.5 3 702 4 771 4 520 4 160 41%29%-5%-8%35%73%

219、64%51%Latin America Index*3.014917218919426%15%10%3%0%15%27%30%Brazil2.2 2 588 3 541 4 000 4 200 39%37%13%5%-7%28%44%52%Chile0.4 1 148 723 780 810 6%-37%8%4%-6%-41%-36%-34%Colombia0.4 1 411 1 587 1 540 1 400 16%12%-3%-9%37%54%50%36%Europe Index*26.98810110610317%15%4%-2%10%26%32%29%EU27+UK+Norway In

220、dex*22.611312512612024%10%1%-5%25%38%39%32%EU27 Index*18.310712312612026%15%2%-4%23%40%43%37%Euro zone Index*15.379941009814%19%6%-1%-7%11%17%16%Western Europe Index*21.49610811110815%12%3%-3%7%20%23%20%Germany4.6 17 814 22 000 24 300 24 900 22%23%10%2%-11%10%22%25%United Kingdom3.6 28 107 26 708 25

221、 900 24 000 14%-5%-3%-7%37%30%26%17%France3.2 56 760 66 161 67 500 64 900 35%17%2%-4%3%20%23%18%Italy2.3 8 222 11 926 14 000 14 300 9%45%17%2%-36%-8%8%11%Spain1.6 4 516 4 671 4 800 4 700 -27%3%3%-2%12%16%19%17%Netherlands1.1 3 271 4 270 4 450 4 100 52%31%4%-8%-20%5%9%1%Switzerland0.9 7 335 8 659 9 5

222、00 9 500 8%18%10%0%36%60%76%76%Sweden0.7 8 842 10 924 10 200 9 100 30%24%-7%-11%32%62%52%35%Belgium0.7 10 243 11 067 10 560 9 930 11%8%-5%-6%3%12%7%0%Ireland0.6 663 875 910 920 25%32%4%1%-18%8%12%14%Norway0.6 4 490 4 509 4 500 4 450 22%0%0%-1%-6%-6%-6%-7%Austria0.5 5 380 6 587 6 700 6 450 13%22%2%-4

223、%6%30%32%27%Denmark0.4 3 078 2 491 2 370 2 300 9%-19%-5%-3%27%3%-2%-5%Finland0.3 3 763 3 959 3 800 3 300 26%5%-4%-13%32%39%33%16%Portugal0.3 2 191 2 299 2 380 2 380 14%5%4%0%-25%-21%-19%-19%Greece0.3 30 35 37 37 30%17%6%0%-68%-62%-60%-60%Luxembourg0.1 919 1 189 1 250 1 150 -9%29%5%-8%-17%7%13%4%Cent

224、ral&Eastern Europe Index*5.515317117617025%11%3%-4%40%56%60%55%Russia2.4 7 396 8 570 10 600 12 300 -18%16%24%16%-43%-34%-18%-5%Trkiye1.0 932 1 355 1 630 1 700 -41%45%20%4%-55%-35%-22%-18%Poland0.8 4 467 4 839 4 650 4 100 70%8%-4%-12%387%427%407%347%Romania0.3 6 650 7 274 7 550 7 350 0%9%4%-3%-18%-10

225、%-7%-9%Czechia0.3 5 644 6 017 6 300 6 500 -4%7%5%3%-25%-20%-16%-13%Hungary0.2 20 751 15 488 12 000 9 900 146%-25%-23%-18%225%143%88%55%Slovakia0.1 2 023 1 880 1 900 1 850 12%-7%1%-3%40%30%32%28%Bulgaria0.1 507 485 495 505 -7%-4%2%2%9%5%7%9%Lithuania0.1 1 037 1 089 1 120 1 120 0%5%3%0%-56%-54%-52%-52

226、%Latvia0.0 252 296 310 310 -18%17%5%0%-59%-52%-50%-50%Estonia0.0 141 160 165 160 41%13%3%-3%-1%13%16%13%Africa Index*0.61251281311310%2%2%0%17%20%23%23%South Africa0.5 1 657 1 551 1 500 1 500 -13%-6%-3%0%-14%-19%-22%-22%Morocco0.2 14 245 15 658 16 800 16 800 15%10%7%0%77%95%109%109%Asia-Pacific Inde

227、x*38.5181186196208-6%3%5%6%1%4%9%15%China23.1 6 481 6 653 7 150 7 890 -14%3%7%10%-14%-12%-6%4%Japan4.9 8 690 10 006 9 800 9 400 35%15%-2%-4%4%20%17%12%India4.0 1 098 845 850 880 -11%-23%1%4%-4%-26%-26%-23%South Korea2.0 1 657 1 940 2 000 1 800 65%17%3%-10%109%144%152%127%Australia2.0 7 008 9 895 9 7

228、00 8 800 42%41%-2%-9%10%56%53%39%Taiwan0.9 174 139 150 155 -18%-20%8%3%-18%-35%-30%-27%Singapore0.5 201 293 280 270 -7%46%-4%-4%-5%38%32%27%Hong Kong0.4 354 443 450 425 17%25%2%-6%26%58%61%52%New Zealand0.3 1 974 2 758 2 900 2 700 20%40%5%-7%-6%32%39%29%of Global IndexBusiness insolvencies levelBusi

229、ness insolvencies growthComparison with 2016-2019 average18 March 202527ALLIANZ RESEARCHteamOurAllianz Research28Chief Investment Officer&Chief Economist Allianz SELudovic SAna Boataana.boataallianz-Arne HHead of Economic Research Allianz TradeHead of Insurance,Wealth&ESG ResearchAllianz SEFranoise

230、HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huangallianz-Luca MonetaSenior Economist for Emerging Marketsluca.monetaallianz-Macroeconomic ResearchMaxime LemerleLead Advisor,Insolvency Research maxime.lemerleallianz-Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathanallianz-Corporate ResearchM

231、ichaela GrimmSenior Economist,Demography&Social PKathrin StoffelEconomist,Insurance&WPatricia Pelayo-RomeroSenior Economist,Insurance&ESGpatricia.pelayo-Insurance,Wealth and ESG ResearchCapital Markets ResearchMarkus ZimmerSenior Economist,ESGJordi Basco CarreraLead Investment Strategistjordi.basco_

232、Maria LatorreSector Advisor,B2Bmaria.latorreallianz-Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK,US&Francemaxime.darmetallianz-Maddalena MartiniSenior Economist for Italy,Greec,Spain&BJasmin GrschlSenior Economist for EBjoern GriesbachSenior Investment Strategist&Eurozone EPatrick HoffmannEconom

233、ist,ESG&AIYao LuInvestment SLluis DalmauEconomist for Africa&Middle Eastlluis.dalmauallianz-Hazem KricheneSenior Economist,CSivagaminathan SivasubramanianESG and Data Analyst sivagaminathan.sivasubramanianallianz-Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisorguillaume.dejeanallianz-Pierre LebardPublic affair

234、s managerpierre.lebardallianz-18 March 20252929Recent PublicationsDiscover all our publications on our websites:Allianz Research and Allianz Trade Economic Research14/03/2025|What to watch 11/03/2025|Plug,baby,plug:Unlocking Europes electricity market 07/03/2025|What to watch 06/03/2025|The New Jedi

235、 Order:global chip war and the semiconductor industry27/02/2025|What to watch 25/02/2025|Climate risk and corporate valuations20/02/2025|What to watch 18/02/2025|From hard-to-abate to decarbonized:Strategies for transforming Europes industrial sector 14/02/2025|What to watch 13/02/2025|How Europe ca

236、n take back the wheel in the global auto sector06/02/2025|What to watch 03/02/2025|Allianz Country Risk Atlas 2025:Repeat and rewind?31/01/2025|What to watch 30/01/2025|Allianz Global Pension Report 2025:Time to walk23/01/2025|What to watch 21/01/2025|Insuring the future:The virtuous cycle of insura

237、nce and sustainability16/01/2025|What to watch 15/01/2025|Allianz Risk Barometer:Identifying the major business risks for 202510/01/2025|What to watch09/01/2025|Germany quo vadis?19/12/2024|Economic outlook 2025-26:Defying gravity?12/12/2024|What to watch09/12/2024|Divided we fall The risks of compe

238、titive fragmentation on Europes road to net zero06/12/2024|What to watch04/12/2024|The weight is over:How GLP-1 treatments are reshaping pharma and beyond28/11/2024|What to watch27/11/2024|How the retail sector is navigating year-round challenges21/11/2024|What to watch18/11/2024|Little fires everyw

239、here:How polarization is shaping the economy(and what to do about it)15/11/2024|What to watch14/11/2024|The geoeconomic playbook of global trade07/11/2024|What to watch14/11/2024|The geoeconomic playbook of global trade07/11/2024|What to watch31/10/2024|What to watch24/10/2024|What to watch22/10/202

240、4|Breaking or laying bricks?How policymakers will shape the construction recovery 18/10/2024|What to watchAllianz Research30Director of PublicationsLudovic Subran,Chief EconomistAllianz ResearchPhone+49 89 3800 7859Allianz Group Economic Researchhttps:/ 28|80802 Munich|GallianzallianzAllianz Trade E

241、conomic Researchhttp:/www.allianz- Place des Saisons|92048 Paris-La-Dfense Cedex|Franceresearchallianz-allianz-tradeallianz-tradeAbout Allianz ResearchAllianz Research encompasses Allianz Group Economic Research and the Economic Research department of Allianz Trade.Forward looking statementsThe stat

242、ements contained herein may include prospects,statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on managements current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.Actual results,performance or events may differ materially from those

243、 expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.Such deviations may arise due to,without limitation,(i)changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation,particularly in the Allianz Groups core business and core markets,(ii)performance of financial markets(particularly mar

244、ket volatility,liquidity and credit events),(iii)frequency and severity of insured loss events,including from natural catastrophes,and the development of loss expenses,(iv)mortality and morbidity levels and trends,(v)persistency levels,(vi)particularly in the banking business,the extent of credit de

245、faults,(vii)interest rate levels,(viii)currency exchange rates including the EUR/USD exchange rate,(ix)changes in laws and regulations,including tax regulations,(x)the impact of acquisitions,including related integration issues,and reorganization measures,and(xi)general competitive factors,in each c

246、ase on a local,regional,national and/or global basis.Many of these factors may be more likely to occur,or more pronounced,as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.No duty to updateThe company assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking statement contained herein,save for any information required to be disclosed by law.