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1、Shell LNG Outlook 2025Shell plcFebruary 20252Cautionary note The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities.In this LNG Outlook“Shell”,“Shell Group”and“Group”are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsi

2、diaries in general.Likewise,the words“we”,“us”and“our”are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities.Subsidiaries,“Shell subsidiaries”and“Sh

3、ell companies”as used in this Outlook refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control.The term“joint venture”,“joint operations”,“joint arrangements”,and“associates”may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownershi

4、p interest with one or more parties.The term“Shell interest”is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement,after exclusion of all third-party interest.Forward-Looking Statements This LNG Outlook contain

5、s forward-looking statements(within the meaning of the U.S.Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)concerning the financial condition,results of operations and businesses of Shell.All statements other than statements of historical fact are,or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements.F

6、orward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on managements current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results,performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these

7、 statements.Forward-looking statements include,among other things,statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing managements expectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projections and assumptions.These forward-looking statements are identified by their

8、use of terms and phrases such as“aim”;“ambition”;anticipate;believe;“commit”;“commitment”;could;estimate;expect;goals;intend;may;“milestones”;objectives;outlook;plan;probably;project;risks;“schedule”;seek;should;target;will;“would”and similar terms and phrases.There are a number of factors that coul

9、d affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this Outlook,including(without limitation):(a)price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;(b)changes in demand for Shells products;(c)curr

10、ency fluctuations;(d)drilling and production results;(e)reserves estimates;(f)loss of market share and industry competition;(g)environmental and physical risks;(h)risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets,and successful negotiation and completi

11、on of such transactions;(i)the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions;(j)legislative,judicial,fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change;(k)economic and financial market conditions in various cou

12、ntries and regions;(l)political risks,including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities,delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs;(m)risks associated with the impact of pandemics,such

13、as the COVID-19(coronavirus)outbreak,regional conflicts,such as the Russia-Ukraine war,and a significant cybersecurity breach;and(n)changes in trading conditions.No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments.All forward-looking statements cont

14、ained in this Outlook are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plcs Form 20-F for

15、 the year ended December 31,2023(available at and www.sec.gov).These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this Outlook and should be considered by the reader.Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this Outlook,February 25,2025.Neither

16、Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,future events or other information.In light of these risks,results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-l

17、ooking statements contained in this Outlook.Shells Net Carbon Intensity Also,in this Outlook we may refer to Shells“Net Carbon Intensity”(NCI),which includes Shells carbon emissions from the production of our energy products,our suppliers carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and

18、our customers carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell.Shells NCI also includes the emissions associated with the production and use of energy products produced by others which Shell purchases for resale.Shell only controls its own emissions.The use of the terms Shel

19、ls“Net Carbon Intensity”or NCI are for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries.Shells net-zero emissions target Shells operating plan,outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year.They reflect the c

20、urrent economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next ten years.Accordingly,they reflect our Scope 1,Scope 2 and NCI targets over the next ten years.However,Shells operating plans cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target,as this target is currently outside our p

21、lanning period.In the future,as society moves towards net-zero emissions,we expect Shells operating plans to reflect this movement.However,if society is not net zero in 2050,as of today,there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.Forward-Looking non-GAAP measures This Outlook

22、 may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures.We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile those non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial mea

23、sures is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of Shell,such as oil and gas prices,interest rates and exchange rates.Moreover,estimating such GAAP measures with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be

24、accomplished without unreasonable effort.Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plcs consolidated financial statements.The con

25、tents of websites referred to in this report do not form part of this LNG Outlook.We may have used certain terms,such as resources,in this Outlook that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.Investors are urged to con

26、sider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F,File No 1-32575,available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.Shell plcFebruary 20253Summary LNG enables lower emissions in hard-to-electrify sectors and paves the way for net-zero emissions The global trade in LNG is set to rise significantly by 2040,driven

27、by Asian economic growth,the need to decarbonise heavy industry and transport and the emerging growth in the energy-intense tech sector.LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport that can bring down emissions.Longer term,existing gas infrastructure could be used to import

28、bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and also repurposed for the import of green hydrogen.Negligible supply growth and resilient Asian demand kept prices elevated in 2024 Global trade in LNG reached 407 million tonnes in 2024,an increase of just 3 million tonnes from 2023,the lowest annual supply addition for 1

29、0 years.Demand for LNG strengthened in Asia during the first half of 2024 as China took advantage of lower prices and India bought more cargoes to help meet strong power demand due to hot summer weather.European imports fell by 23 million tonnes,or 19%,due to strong renewable energy generation and c

30、ontinued weakness in industrial gas demand.With rising global demand,LNG is a fuel of choice to en-sure energy system resilience Demand for gas continues to gather pace across Asia,with China and India significantly increasing their regasification and downstream infrastructure.More than 170 million

31、tonnes of new LNG supply is set to come on to the market by 2030,helping to meet growing long-term global demand for gas.But project start-up timings remain uncertain.Europe and Japan will continue to require LNG to fill a widening gap between energy diversification ambi-tions and actual investment

32、levels.1LNG enables lower emissions in hard-to-electrify sectors and paves the way for net-zero emissions Shell plcFebruary 20255The world continues to need more natural gas2024 sees record gas demand,2040 forecasts revised upwardsNatural gas supply 2024-2040BCMNatural gas demand 2024-2040BCMSource:

33、Shells interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data 2024*Indigenous production includes stock build,other losses;*excluding LNG liquefaction lossesOther includes stock changes,losses,blue hydrogen production3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002024Domestic*PipelineLNG*20403,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002024PowerIndustryBuil

34、dingsTransportOther2040Traditional biomass,oil and coal use fallGas switching in power sectorIncrease in gases for transportData centres and AI Low-carbon gasesDemand driversOilCoalBioThe world continues to need more natural gas 2024 sees record gas demand,2040 forecasts revised upwards Natural gas

35、supply 2024-2040 BCM Natural gas demand 2024-2040 BCM Source:Shells interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data 2024 *Indigenous production includes stock build,other losses;*excluding LNG liquefaction losses Other includes stock changes,losses,blue hydrogen productionShell plc0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90

36、%100%In serviceOn orderFebruary 20256LNG demand grows in hard-to-electrify sectorsClear cost and environmental benefits of LNG in marine transportationMarine order book for lower-carbon fuels VesselsLNG demand in shippingMTPAReducing methane emissions in shippingShare of main engine technology by gr

37、oss tonnageSource:Shells interpretation of Clarksons data 2025,Other:biofuel,CNG,ethane,LPG,nuclear;PCTC:pure car,truck carrier;Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-offLower methane slip engines:2-stroke dual fuel slow speed diesel(HP)and 2-stroke dual fuel slow speed Otto Gen 2 engines;higher methane slip engines:2-

38、stroke dual fuel slow speed Otto Gen 1,4-stroke medium speed Otto and LBSI engines05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50020152017201920212023202520272029LNGMethanolHydrogenAmmoniaOtherLower-methane slip enginesHigher-methane slip engines024681012141618202220232024202520262027202820292030BulkersContainers

39、TankersPCTC,Ro-Ro,ferriesOthers2023 forecastCruiseLNG demand grows in hard-to-electrify sectors Clear cost and environmental benefits of LNG in marine transportation Marine order book for lower-carbon fuels Vessels LNG demand in shipping MTPA Reducing methane emissions in shipping Share of engine te

40、chnology by gross tonnage Source:Shells interpretation of Clarksons data 2025,Other:biofuel,CNG,ethane,LPG,nuclear;PCTC:pure car,truck carrier;Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-off Lower methane slip engines:2-stroke dual fuel slow speed diesel(HP)and 2-stroke dual fuel slow speed Otto Gen 2 engines;higher methane

41、 slip engines:2-stroke dual fuel slow speed Otto Gen 1,4-stroke medium speed Otto and LBSI engines Shell plcFebruary 20257Progress in reducing methane emissions in LNG value chainEfforts to achieve near-zero targets for 2030Methane intensity of upstream productionCollective methane intensity of OGCI

42、*membersMeasuring methane emissions of LNGSource:Shells interpretation of Oil and Gas Climate Initiative(OGCI)progress report 2024,UN Environment Programmes International Methane Emissions Observatory 2024 data*Oil and Gas Climate Initiative members(30%of total global oil and gas production);emissio

43、ns are estimated to be within or below 0.2%from wellhead to LNG loading arm0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%201720182019202020212022 2023South Korea0.2%Emissions0.2%or lower92%of LNG supply in OGMP 2.0 scope92%Japan0.2%Emissions0.2%or lower87%87%of LNG supply in OGMP 2.0 scopeProgress in redu

44、cing methane emissions in LNG value chain Efforts to achieve near-zero targets for 2030 Methane intensity of upstream production Collective methane intensity of OGCI*members Measuring methane emissions of LNG Source:Shells interpretation of Oil and Gas Climate Initiative(OGCI)progress report 2024,UN

45、 Environment Programmes International Methane Emissions Observatory 2024 data*Oil and Gas Climate Initiative members(30%of total global oil and gas production);emissions are estimated to be within or below 0.2%from wellhead to LNG loading arm Shell plcFebruary 20258Liquefied biomethane will play a g

46、rowing role in transportBiomethane production BCMShipping GHG intensity targets gCO2e/MJ Source:Shells interpretation of S&P Global,SEA-LNG and FuelEU Maritime data01020304050607080901002020202520302035204020452050FuelEU GHG intensity limitLNG intensityLNG bunkering portsAvailable todayUnder develop

47、ment024681012141618202018202020222024202620282030EuropeNorth America13%CAGRLNG delivers GHG savings and supports future compliance79%bio-LNG29%bio-LNG2%bio-LNGLiquefied biomethane will play a growing role in transport LNG delivers GHG savings and supports future compliance Biomethane production BCM

48、LNG bunkering ports Shipping GHG intensity targets gCO2e/MJ Source:Shells interpretation of S&P Global,SEA-LNG and FuelEU Maritime data Shell plcFebruary 20259LSG:using existing LNG infrastructure to achieve net zero Liquefied synthetic gas(LSG)production process Renewable energyElectrolysisMethanat

49、ionStored and exported as LSGTransmission and distributionSurplus renewable electricityCO from direct air capture,circular CO and,in the interim,industrial COShippingRegasificationPowerHomesIndustryVehiclesShippingExisting gas and LNG infrastructureGas demandCan deliver the energy to supply all indu

50、strial demand in USA&JapanLSG:using existing LNG infrastructure to achieve net zero Can deliver the energy to supply all industrial demand in USA&Japan 2 Negligible supply growth and resilient Asian demand kept prices elevated in 2024 Shell plcFebruary 202511LNG spot prices strengthened throughout 2

51、024 Prices below highs of 2021-2023 but unexpected factors fuelled volatility2024 Asia LNG spot prices*$/MMBtuSource:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights data*Daily Japan/Korea Marker(JKM)prices79111315JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecQ1Q2Q3Q4Opportunistic buying in Q1 as mild wi

52、nter and high inventories offered attractive prices for end users,mostly in ChinaQ1Record heat in India stretched coal generation capacity,driving increase in spot LNG purchases,despite elevated prices Q2Delayed construction of new LNG plants and declining domestic production in Egypt reduced global

53、 supplyQ3Ongoing threats of Russian pipeline supply curtailment via Ukraine and weak European storage-fill triggered scarcity fearsQ4LNG spot prices strengthened throughout 2024 Prices below highs of 2021-2023 but unexpected factors fuelled volatility 2024 Asia LNG spot prices*$/MMBtu Source:Shell i

54、nterpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights data *Daily Japan/Korea Marker(JKM)prices Shell plc0510152020202021202220232024February 2025122024 saw lowest growth in LNG export capacity in 10 yearsGrowth restricted by gas production declines and construction delaysChange in global LNG exports*2024(

55、YoY)MTPAGlobal LNG export capacity additionsMTPASource:Shell interpretation of Kpler and Wood Mackenzie data*Represents free on board(FOB)volume;YoY:year-on-year comparison-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5RussiaNigeriaMalaysiaUSAMozambiqueCameroonPapua New GuineaTrinidad and TobagoAlgeriaEgypt202

56、4 saw lowest growth in LNG export capacity in 10 years Growth restricted by gas production declines and construction delays Change in global LNG exports*2024(YoY)MTPA Global LNG export capacity additions MTPA Source:Shell interpretation of Kpler and Wood Mackenzie data*Represents free on board(FOB)v

57、olume;YoY:year-on-year comparison Shell plcFebruary 202513Strong Asian demand comes at Europes expenseThe shortfall in local supply made Egypt a net LNG importer in 2024Change in LNG imports*2024(YoY)MTPALNG import growth vs forecast 2024(YoY)MTPASource:Shell interpretation of Kpler,S&P Global Commo

58、dity Insights,Wood Mackenzie and Poten&Partners data*Represents delivered,ex-ship(DES)volume;YoY:year-on-year comparison-8-6-4-202468ChinaIndiaEgyptSouth KoreaBrazilNetherlandsBelgiumFranceSpainUnited KingdomActualConsultant forecast range in 2023-25EgyptEuropeChina&India-5151050-10-15-20Total LNG t

59、rade*:407 MTStrong Asian demand comes at Europes expense The shortfall in local supply made Egypt a net LNG importer in 2024 Change in LNG imports*2024(YoY)MTPA LNG import growth vs forecast 2024(YoY)MTPA Source:Shell interpretation of Kpler,S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie and Poten&Par

60、tners data *Represents delivered,ex-ship(DES)volume;YoY:year-on-year comparison Shell plcFebruary 202514LNG shipping rates hit record low despite canal bottlenecksTanker capacity outpaced LNG supply increases due to project delaysUS LNG exports to Asia%of total,by transit routeLNG tanker vs liquefac

61、tion capacity%change YoYAverage LNG tanker charter rates*$1000s/daySource:Shell interpretation of Kpler,S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie,and FGE data*Average of shipping daily rates of tri-fuel diesel electric and 2-stroke tankers6%38%91%25%3%37%20242023PanamaCape of Good HopeSuez0%1%2%3

62、%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2021202220232024LNG shipping capacityLNG export capacity0100200300400500JanMarMayJulSepNov2019-2023 range2024LNG shipping rates hit record low despite canal bottlenecks Tanker capacity outpaced LNG supply increases due to project delays US LNG exports to Asia%of total,by transit rout

63、e LNG tanker vs liquefaction capacity%change YoY Average LNG tanker charter rates*$1000s/day Source:Shell interpretation of Kpler,S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie,and FGE data *Average of shipping daily rates of tri-fuel diesel electric and 2-stroke tankers Shell plcFebruary 202515Chines

64、e LNG demand recovery nears 2021 peak Spot buying remained steady but was reactive to priceChange in Chinas gas balanceBCM0%6%12%18%24%30%015304560759020202021202220232024LNG importsShare of global totalChinas LNG importsMTPAShareChinas spot LNG imports JKMMT$/MMBtu2023 Domestic prod Piped imports L

65、NG imports 2024 Power Buildings*Industry Transport 2023360370380390400410420430SupplychangesDemandchanges03691215012345JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020-23 spot imports range2024 spot imports2024 JKMChinese LNG demand recovery nears 2021 peak Spot buying remained steady but was reactive to pr

66、ice Change in Chinas gas balance BCM Chinas LNG imports MTPA ShareChinas spot LNG imports JKMMT$/MMBtuSource:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights and Kpler data*buildings include residential and commercial demandShell plcFebruary 202516Indias LNG imports hit record level in 2024Summ

67、er heatwave drove strong spot buying despite elevated pricesChange in Indias gas balanceBCMIndias annual LNG importsMTPAShareIndias spot LNG imports JKMMT$/MMBtu0%2%4%6%8%10%061218243020202021202220232024LNG importsShare of global total2023 Domestic prod LNG imports 2024 Power Industry Buildings*Tra

68、nsport 20235859606162636465666768SupplychangesDemandchanges-3 6 9 12 1500.40.81.21.62JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020-23 spot imports range2024 spot imports2024 JKMIndias LNG imports hit record level in 2024 Summer heatwave drove strong spot buying despite elevated prices Change in Indias ga

69、s balance BCM Indias annual LNG imports MTPA ShareIndias spot LNG imports JKMMT$/MMBtuSource:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,Kpler and Wood Mackenzie data*buildings include residential and commercial demandShell plcFebruary 202517Europe faces tight gas balance despite weak dema

70、ndLower inventories and less wind generation intensified need for LNG in Q4Change in Europe gas balanceBCMRussian pipeline export to EuropeBCMEurope gas storage%fullSource:Shell interpretation of Gas Infrastructure Europe,Wood Mackenzie,and BloombergNEF dataEurope includes UK+EU27,excluding Cyprus*I

71、ncludes blue hydrogen,transport and pipeline exports2023Storage changeRussian pipesOther pipesDomestic prodLNG2024PowerBuildingsIndustryOthers*2023370380390400410420430440SupplychangesDemandchanges0%20%40%60%80%100%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecConsultant forecastrange for end-winterstorage le

72、vels010203040506020242025TurkStreamBlue StreamUkraine transitLosing Ukraine transit creates 1 10 0 MMT TP PA A supply gap in 20252019 2023 range2019 2023 average20242025Europe faces tight gas balance despite weak demand Lower inventories and less wind generation intensified need for LNG in Q4 Change

73、 in Europe gas balance BCM Russian pipeline export to Europe BCM Europe gas storage%full Source:Shell interpretation of Gas Infrastructure Europe,Wood Mackenzie,and BloombergNEF data Europe includes UK+EU27,excluding Cyprus *Includes blue hydrogen,transport and pipeline exports Shell plcFebruary 202

74、518New LNG supply limited until second half of 2025Europes need to refill gas storage will compete with Asian demandForecast LNG supply growth 2025(YoY)MTForecast LNG demand growth 2025(YoY)MTPASource:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie and Energy Aspects data0510152

75、02530Q1Q2Q3Q4Total051015202530AsiaEuropeOthersTotal17-26 MTPA17-26 MTPAConsultant forecast rangeLowHighConsultant forecast range(total)New LNG supply limited until second half of 2025Europes need to refill gas storage will compete with Asian demand Forecast LNG supply growth 2025(YoY)MTPA Forecast L

76、NG demand growth 2025(YoY)MTPA Source:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie and Energy Aspects data 3With rising global demand,LNG is a fuel of choice to deliver energy system resilienceShell plcDelay factorsGeopoliticaltensionsRegulatoryhurdlesStart-uprisksCivil unres

77、tLabourshortagesSupply chain bottlenecksDelay factors0204060202420252026202720282024 ActualFebruary 202520LNG supply growth is coming,but timing remains uncertainNew project development faces multiple challengesGlobal LNG supply forecast evolutionMTPA2025-28 global LNG supply forecast rangeMTPASourc

78、e:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie and Energy Aspects data400475550202420252026202720282022 forecast2023 forecast2024 forecastConsultant forecast rangeHighLow2023forecastReduced supply forecast in two years,equivalent to Indias LNG imports in 202430 MTPALNG supply

79、 growth is coming,but timing remains uncertain New project development faces multiple challenges Global LNG supply forecast evolution MTPA 2025-28 global LNG supply forecast range MTPA Source:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie and Energy Aspects data Shell plc0%5%10

80、%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0100200300400500600700800900202020242030IndiaChinaAs share of total(China+India)180 million more people will have access to gas gridFebruary 202521Infrastructure investment signals strong LNG growth in AsiaExpansion in China and India set to drive greater gas useRegasification

81、capacity in AsiaMTPA Utilisation ratePopulation connected to gas gridMillion people Share of totalLNG-fuelled heavy-duty truck fleetMillion trucksSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,World Bank,S&P Global Commodity Insights,and National Institution for Transforming India data0%15%30%45%60%7

82、5%350450550650750850202020222024202620282030OperationalUnder constructionApprovedCapacity utilisation rate0.40.60.81.01.21.4202020242030ChinaIndia30 MTPA LNG equivalentInfrastructure investment signals strong LNG growth in Asia Expansion in China and India set to drive greater gas use Regasification

83、 capacity in Asia MTPA Utilisation rate Population connected to gas grid Million people Share of totalLNG-fuelled heavy-duty truck fleet Million trucks Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,World Bank,S&P Global Commodity Insights,and National Institution for Transforming India data Shell pl

84、c2030.2600520210480385220604022Heat pumps(mln)February 202522LNG provides energy security in transitioning marketsEuropean Union and Japan falling short of policy aimsEurope and Japan policy aimsEurope gas balanceBCMJapan power balanceTWhSource:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,W

85、ood Mackenzie,European Commission,and Japans Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(METI)data0100200300400500202120232030Russia pipesDomestic productionOther pipesLow-carbon gasesLNGDemand02004006008001,0001,200201020242030CoalOilNuclearRenewablesLNGTotal power demandSupply gapSupply gap21%16%8%37%2

86、9%27%REPowerEU ambitions vs industry forecasts2023 actual2030 industry forecast2030 policy ambitionSolar(GW)Wind(GW)Hydrogen(MTPA)NuclearRenewable6th Energy Plan ambitions vs industry forecastsLNG provides energy security in transitioning markets European Union and Japan falling short of policy aims

87、 Europe and Japan policy aims Europe gas balance BCM Japan power balance TWh Source:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights,Wood Mackenzie,European Commission,and Japans Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(METI)data Shell plcFebruary 202523Declining reserves,growing demand slow lega

88、cy LNG exportsAlgeria,Egypt,Malaysia&Indonesia will export less to the global market-80-60-40-20020402025203020352040Total supplyTotal demand-1001020304050602025203020352040AlgeriaEgyptMalaysiaIndonesiaGas supply and demand vs 2024BCMNet LNG exportsMTPASource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie d

89、ataDeclining reserves,growing demand slow legacy LNG exports Algeria,Egypt,Malaysia&Indonesia will export less to the global market Gas supply and demand vs 2024 BCMNet LNG exports MTPASource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie dataShell plcOperatingUnder constructionPotential pre-FID0100200300US

90、AFebruary 202524The LNG industry is increasing its reliance on US supplyFurther US LNG growth is likely but comes with risksUS LNG exportsMTPAUS gas consumption by sectorBCMSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data*Buildings include residential and commercial demand*LNG exports include pre-

91、FID capacity assumptions,including feed gas for Mexico liquefaction capacity exporting US gas supply01002003004002020202520302035IndustryPowerBuildings*LNG exports*Of the size of Indias 2024 total gas market1/3Of global LNG supply60%Of global LNG supplyWith Qatar5 timesUS LNG CH4Emissions intensityC

92、ost of constructionRegulatory uncertaintyEnergy security2035US LNG supply could represent:the size of South Korea and Japans 2024 LNG demand combined1/3of global LNG supply60%of global LNG supplyWith Qatar2xRisk factors:The LNG industry is increasing its reliance on US supply Further US LNG growth i

93、s likely but comes with risks US LNG exports MTPA US gas consumption by sector BCM Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data *Buildings include residential and commercial demand*LNG exports include pre-FID capacity assumptions,including feed gas for Mexico liquefaction capacity exporting US

94、 gas supply Shell plc25February 2025Middle East dominated contracting during 2024US selling slowed after record contract signings from 2021 to 202301020304050607080201920202021202220232024Middle EastNorth AmericaOthersPortfolio010203040506070802021202220232024ChinaEuropeSEA+SANE AsiaOthersPortfolio0

95、1020304050607080202120222023202410 yrs10-19 yrs20+yrs010203040506070802021202220232024Oil indexedGas indexedOthersSource:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights and Wood Mackenzie dataNE Asia:excluding mainland China;SEA:Southeast Asia;SA:South AsiaLNG SPA signingsMTPABy buyerBy tenorB

96、y indexBy sourceMiddle East dominated contracting during 2024 US selling slowed after record contract signings from 2021 to 2023 LNG SPA signings MTPA Source:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Commodity Insights and Wood Mackenzie data NE Asia:excluding mainland China;SEA:Southeast Asia;SA:South Asi

97、a Shell plcFebruary 202526Outlook upgraded for LNG demand through to 2040More investment is needed to ensure supply can keep up with demandGGl lo ob ba al l L LNNGG s su up pp pl ly y v vs s d de emma an nd d f fo or re ec ca as st t r ra an ng ge e MTPAGGl lo ob ba al l L LNNGG d de emma an nd dMTP

98、ASource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,S&P Global Commodity Insights,Poten&Partners,Rystad Energy and FGE data01002003004005006007008002025203020352040Europe,Japan&South KoreaChina&IndiaRest of AsiaRest of WorldMarine-100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8000100200300400500600700800202420252026202720

99、28202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040LNG supply in operationLNG supply under constructionDemand forecast rangeOutlook upgraded for LNG demand through to 2040 More investment is needed to ensure supply can keep up with demand Global LNG supply vs demand forecast range MTPAGlobal LNG dema

100、nd MTPA Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,S&P Global Commodity Insights,Poten&Partners,Rystad Energy and FGE data Shell plcFebruary 202527GHGSwitching to gas can reduce carbon emissions and improve air qualityLower emissionsComplementing variable supply and meeting variable demandFlexibi

101、lityAdaptabilityLNG infrastructure can be used for bio-LNG and LSGReliabilityDelivering reliable energy,even during times of conflict and trade disruptionResilienceProviding flexible supply when other sources have been disrupted or are in declineLNG:dynamic solutions for an interconnected energy systemA fuel of choice for customers navigating the energy transition