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1、Photo by Vladimir Lukin Kearney,ChicagoSignaling the future:five telco trends in 2025Enhanced digital experiences,bundled offerings,and network reliability will also help telcos stay competitive and deliver value in a saturated consumer market.As data consumption soars and average revenue per unit(A

2、RPU)declines,telcos will continue to focus on cost optimization,customer-centric innovations,streamlined product portfolios,and lowered capital expenditure to maintain their profitability.Several enterprises are also seizing the moment to reassess their core strengths and diversify their business-to

3、-business(B2B)offerings.These providers recognize the potential to capture value in emerging information and communications technology(ICT)fields such as cloud services,cybersecurity,and the Internet of Things.At a high level,connectivity remains a cornerstone of telco stability and viability.Howeve

4、r,additional services beyond core offerings for consumers and enterprise customers could present high growth potential despite the evident challenges of scalability and alignment with core competencies.The rate of change in the industry is astonishing.In five years,leading telcos may not resemble th

5、e companies they are today.AI and new technologies are making their presence felt,and it is our view that telcos willing to innovate and adapt will be best placed to appease customers and capture increased market share.Are you ready for 2025 and the years beyond?2025 looks poised to deliver several

6、significant technological advancements and strategic shifts across the telco industry worldwide.This white paper provides a vision for the next 12 months,highlighting five key trends.It is informed by analysis of internal and external research and discussions with representatives from several telco

7、providers throughout the region.These findings and conversations show that generative artificial intelligence(AI)technology will likely be a key driver of the sectors evolution.In fact,for several providers,AI is already reshaping operational frameworks and redefining customer engagement and experie

8、nces.Beyond AI tools,some telcos are also deploying other innovative and cost-effective technologies,such as fixed wireless access(FWA)and low earth orbit(LEO)satellites,to improve connectivity for customers in hard-to-reach areas.Foreword1Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025AI can help te

9、lcos offer a more personalized user experience across digital platforms,and can also support targeted marketing and improved customer service.Trend#1:AI is the centerpiece of digitalizationGenerative AI is already transforming various layers in the telco business model,and this trend shows no sign o

10、f abating.Despite the infancy of these emerging tools,many providers have deployed them in crucial back-end processes such as network optimization.Many telcos believe that AI also has the potential to significantly enhance customer experiences,improving customer acquisition and retention.These outco

11、mes are achievable because AI can help telcos offer a more personalized user experience across digital platforms.It can also support targeted marketing and improved customer service by providing rapid and accurate insights into customer behavior,including buying and usage patterns.China Mobile achie

12、ved a 13 percent increase in outdoor downlink speeds and a 30 percent boost in indoor speeds by applying AI to 1,000 parameters.SK Telecom(SKT)has launched an AI pyramid strategy focused on three pillars:AI infrastructure,AI transformation(AIX),and AI service.Currently,12 percent of the telcos inves

13、tments are directed toward AI,with plans to increase this to 33 percent by 2028.T-Mobile has deployed a predictive AI-powered platform called IntentCX that uses AI-enabled data and business process innovation to improve customer satisfaction,reducing inbound customer contact by 75 percent.In additio

14、n,several telcos are exploring ways to maximize value from custom tools designed for internal use that can also benefit their corporate customers.AIS has used AI to develop marketing models that help ideate and drive its marketing campaigns.The company has made these tools and resources available to

15、 some of its retail partners,providing additional B2B value.Taiwan Mobile is offering B2B customers its homegrown AI agent,which was initially developed for the operators own customer service center.2Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025Telecommunications,media,and technology companies we s

16、urveyed have the highest percentage of AI leaders compared to other industries.Although many telcos are proactively adopting AI,others have been more cautious.According to our recent Global AI Assessment(AIA)2024 study,the telecommunications,media,and technology companies we surveyed have the highes

17、t percentage of AI leaders compared to other industries(see figure 1).Per our data,7 percent of these companies are“leaders”in AI adoption,while 46 percent are considered“explorers,”45 percent are“followers,”and only 2 percent are“laggards.”The study designates leaders and explorers as“analytically

18、mature”companies with“well-defined AI goals”compared with less mature followers and laggards.Figure 1The telecommunications,media,and technology industry has the highest percentage of AI leaders compared to other industriesSources:Global AI Assessment(AIA)2024;Kearney analysisOverallEnergy and proce

19、ssesConsumer and retailFinancial servicesMobility,defense,and advanced materialsTelecommunications,media,and technology Healt3%4%2%3%2%2%3%LaggardsFollowersExplorersLeaders48%57%42%43%44%45%48%45%38%52%53%51%46%45%4%2%5%2%3%7%3%3Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025Ericsson research shows t

20、hat data demand is anticipated to increase at a substantial compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 23 percent by 2030(see figure 2).Consumers transitioning to advanced mobile network technologies,particularly 5G connections,will likely drive this growth.As a result,ARPU in the telco business-to-consume

21、r(B2C)market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3 percent by 2030.However,telcos will need to prioritize customer preferences and focus on delivering maximum value and the best possible user experience to capture and elevate this revenue growth.Trend#2:Focus on digital customer journeys,and FMC can h

22、elp telcos extract B2C value amid muted ARPU growthDespite significant investments to meet the growing demand for data to conduct online activities,Omdia research indicates that telcos have not seen a corresponding increase in service revenue over recent years.In fact,many incumbents worldwide have

23、faced challenging declines in ARPU,which can be attributed to factors such as market saturation in developed economies and increased competition from budget players and mobile virtual network operators(MVNOs).Figure 2Data demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 23 percent by 2030202020302025Note

24、s:ARPU is average revenue per unit.B2C is business-to-consumer.Sources:Ericsson,Gartner;Kearney analysisAnnual B2C ARPU($)Data traffic(exabytes per month)58473201119155130#Key B2C themes that will uplift telcos ARPU going forwardDigital customer experienceFixedmobile convergenceTiered pricingNetwork

25、 resilience4Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025Prominent telcos are employing innovative B2C strategiesA range of telcos are already reaping the benefits of product and service innovation.Some have lifted their Net Promoter Score(NPS)by offering enhanced digital customer experiences,inclu

26、ding improved mobile apps and loyalty programs that encourage online service purchases.Deutsche Telekom has witnessed high engagement with its Magenta Moments loyalty program,which has contributed to a significantly higher NPS for customers using the app compared to those engaging via different chan

27、nels.Telcos are leveraging FMC to up-sell and cross-sell,addressing the challenge of declining or stable ARPU.This fosters a sense of loyalty which reduces churn and eventually leads to better margins.In the third quarter of 2024,Swisscom reported a decline in churn of 17.9 percent year on year.The

28、team noted that fixed-mobile convergence was a key driver of this reduction.Although customers are price-conscious,many telcos can justify potential tariff increases by offering increased data volume or a broader suite of customer services.In turn,providers worldwide continue to focus on combining t

29、ier-based pricing with prioritized marketing for premium products.Network resilience is also a top priority for telcos in the B2C market.A major outage can severely impact a telcos brand value and dent customer and investor trust;in fact,past outages have resulted in approximate stock price declines

30、 of 1 to 4 percent.Moreover,resilience will become ever more important and tougher to maintain as networks continue to grow more complex by way of increased software use and virtualization technology.Resilience will become ever more important and tougher to maintain as networks continue to grow more

31、 complex.5Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025However,of the two,connectivity remains a priority for providers as GSMA research indicates that it contributes approximately 70 percent to overall telco B2B revenue on average.Even some of the worlds best-known telcossuch as KDDI,NTT,KPN,Airte

32、l,and BTstill derive more than half of their B2B revenue from connectivity services.5G is further enhancing the core connectivity opportunities through advanced connectivity use cases such as private 5G networks and network application programming interfaces(APIs).In particular,the demand for privat

33、e networks has reached an inflection point,rapidly increasing across various sectors including government,manufacturing,healthcare,transport,and logistics.Prominent telcos such as AIS and Singtel are embracing 5G hybrid and slicing models to offer advanced private networks for clients,with network s

34、licing allowing for multiple virtual networks on the same physical network.These models can provide value across several use cases including operating automated guided vehicles in ports and facilitating edge video capabilities for manufacturing businesses.Trend#3:To B or not to Btelcos rethink how t

35、o drive B2B growthUnder pressure from system integrators and niche players in a competitive market,telcos are readjusting their focus to areas that align with their existing capabilities to stimulate revenue from corporate customers.For example,telcos with extensive data center capabilities may focu

36、s more on offering cloud computing or storage solutions.In a 2023 Omdia report on telco B2B results,telcos in most regions recorded single-digit net growth in enterprise revenues,and less than half(43 percent)of the telcos studied had achieved positive enterprise revenue growth over the past five ye

37、ars(see figure 3).Enterprise revenue in the telecom industry mainly comprises connectivity and non-connectivity revenues,with enterprise connectivity projected to grow at a modest CAGR of 3 percent by 2028.Figure 3Telcos in most regions recorded single-digit net growth YoY in enterprise revenues in

38、2023Sources:Omdia(derived from 85 operators/operator groups reporting B2B financials);Kearney analysis Almost two-thirds of telcos grew B2B in 2023.Almost a third(27%)of telcos B2B revenues involved non-connectivity activities.This was 7%more than in 2021.Fewer than half(43%)of telcos have delivered

39、 growth over the past five years.North America-5.6%South America+13.1%Europe+4%Middle Eastand Africa+6.1%Asia andOceania+7.5%6Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025Expansion beyond connectivity services remains a questionMany telcos are growing their B2B revenue by diversifying beyond connec

40、tivity services,though the mix of offerings varies.And while telcos have considered partnerships and acquisitions to tap into the ICT space,these have sometimes involved significant organizational change and disruption without the desired return on investment.Many telcos still act primarily as resel

41、lers of non-connectivity services,so the share of revenue from non-connectivity products and services has remained relatively small for most providers.A few providers have achieved incremental contributions to B2B revenue of 30 to 40 percent,but 10 to 20 percent is more typical.Although currently no

42、n-connectivity services account for less B2B revenue than connectivity services,the ICT market is witnessing significant growth.A press release from Gartner indicates that global B2B IT spending is expected to rise at a rate of 9.8 percent as more enterprises embrace digitalization efforts,compared

43、to a meager 3 percent for connectivity.Importantly,GSMA analysis suggests the opportunity for non-core B2B revenue is expected to reach$986 billion by 2030,80 percent of which is expected to come from cloud,data center,and cybersecurity products and services.There are already some notable success st

44、ories:China Mobile,StarHub,and Telefnica are examples of major telcos that earn more than 50 percent of their B2B revenues from non-connectivity offerings,with a focus on cloud technology,the Internet of Things,security,and managed IT services.Every telco has its own B2B elasticity curvethat is,the

45、ability to stretch growth beyond connectivity while preserving the value and importance of core products and services.There is a risk of extending too far into non-connectivity,which may disassociate telcos from their core advantages for customers,such as network stability and speed.The potential ad

46、vantages of this technology are significant.In fact,companies that use 5G and multi-access edge computing for data processing in a factory,for example,can realize an approximately 2.7x return on investment.The bulk of this return can be attributed to reduced labor,increased coverage,superior bandwid

47、th,and better network consistency.Additionally,5G API integrations can enable new services such as network slicing that will evolve as technology,devices,and the network ecosystem mature.Telco-led network API cases are sparse but have recently increased in frequency,and the growth of more capable 5G

48、 standalone networks will help achieve widespread 5G API deployment.Telcos are currently following different models for API integrations.For example,T-Mobile and Deutsche Telekom are implementing a direct-to-developer model,which gives developers direct access to API information.Meanwhile,Japans NTT

49、 Docomo is using a strategic partnership model,sharing data with earmarked organizations to drive its B2B2X platform.Companies that use 5G and multi-access edge computing for data processing in a factory can realize an approximately 2.7x RoI.7Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025Trend#4:Fix

50、ed is not fixed anymorealternative connectivity methods show explosive growthThe fixed connectivity environment is undergoing significant transformation,driven by rapid growth in alternative connection methods.Traditional broadband infrastructure,including fiber optic cabling,is not always financial

51、ly viable for low-density or hard-to-reach areas,despite its ability to provide high-quality Internet service.The conversation around cost has prompted several telcos to explore and adopt alternative connectivity solutions,with a predominant focus on FWA and satellite broadband technologies.Fixed wi

52、reless accessFWA technology,which connects consumers and businesses to broadband Internet using wireless connectivity,is now widely available for consumers and businesses around the world.By 2030,FWA connections are expected to grow from the current total of 160 million to 350 million,representing a

53、 CAGR of 14 percent,while data traffic is projected to increase nearly fivefold to 150 exabytes(equivalent to 1,000 petabytes)by 2029(see figure 4).In the same time frame,5G FWA will make up the majority of total FWA connections.FWA is an attractive option for telcos,as it provides quality connectiv

54、ity in low-density areas without significant capital expenditure.Government subsidies in countries such as India and Brazil can further support these efforts.Moreover,the advent of 5G technology has enhanced the effectiveness of these connections,leading some providers to discontinue 4G FWA services

55、 entirely.Sources:Ericsson;Kearney analysisFigure 4FWA connections are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14 percent between now and 2030Price/valueLow capexdeploymentFWAs value propositionFWA connections(in millions)by 2030202020252030PerformanceConvenience721883508Signaling the future:five telco trends

56、 in 2025Satellite communicationSatellite communication is already a$12 billion market,and Novaspace research predicts it will grow at a CAGR of approximately 7 percent by 2030,driven primarily by applications across broadband,public service,and the aviation market.In particular,LEO satellites are ga

57、ining popularity for their reduced latency compared to traditional geostationary satellites,and they also cost significantly less per satellite to install,operate,and access than medium earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit alternatives.As such,LEO satellites have stronger growth potential in busines

58、s-to-government,aviation,and backhaul markets.With all this for context,many satellite operators have a significant number of LEO constellations in their pipeline.Starlink alone will likely launch more than 75 percent of all LEO satellites in the coming years.The LEO market has high competition whic

59、h keeps on flying out satellites.Further,geographic coverage through LEO requires a lot of satellites in orbit to cover the geography,which makes it quite crowded.Because of this,it is expected that LEO satellites will add significant capacitynot all usable but still outpacing demand.In the context

60、of telcos,currently the demand for backhaul trunking via satelliteswhere satellites are used to transmit data between isolated terrestrial networks and the broader Internetis high in remote areas with no other Internet connection.We predict that the market for satellite-backed backhaul trunking will

61、 grow.Perhaps anticipating this growth,mobile network operators are increasingly partnering with satellite operators to enhance these backhaul networks and provide increased connectivity.KDDI has contracted Starlink to provide satellite-based backhaul trunking for up to 1,200 mobile base station sit

62、es in remote areas.In Australia,Telstra is collaborating with OneWeb to connect more than 300 remote mobile base station sites to help expand mobile coverage.Demand for LEO services among remote,high-income households in physically large nations such as the United States and Canada is also likely to

63、 grow.Moreover,the uptake of these services across Asia Pacific and other developing regions is projected to increase as technology becomes more accessible and the cost of deployment eases.Trend#5:Increasing focus on cost optimization helps widen marginsIn 2025 and beyond,telcos will continue to opt

64、imize costs via several avenuesincluding downsizing,using AI to gain efficiencies,simplifying products,optimizing their sales channel mix,and better managing capital expenditure.Based on a recent Kearney Global Competitive Benchmarking analysis,60 percent of telcos have downsized in the past decade,

65、with a 14 percent average decline in the number of full-time equivalent(FTE)staff between 2018 and 2023.Interestingly,IT was the only department where headcounts increased over this period,since new digital solutions need more employees to support them.As weve already touched on,AI will play a signi

66、ficant role in reducing costs,as telcos deploy AI-powered sales and service tools,use AI-driven analysis to optimize customer marketing and interactions,and automate vast amounts of time-consuming manual work.Satellite communication is already a$12 billion market and is expected to grow at a CAGR of

67、 approximately 7 percent by 2030.9Signaling the future:five telco trends in 2025While telcos downsize and integrate AI technology,manyincluding well-known telcos Deutsche Telekom and Telstraare also establishing multi-year product simplification strategies to cut down their costs.Whats clear from th

68、eir efforts to date is that customer migration planning and execution must form a major part of these strategies.Otherwise,telcos may not reap the potential benefits,such as reduced expenditure or improved employee productivity,without a decrease in retention.Kearney helped a client reduce operation

69、al expenditure by more than 30 percent by simplifying and streamlining the offerings in its portfolio.The sales channel mix is another important aspect driving cost optimization for telcos.Direct channels are gaining more popularity over the indirect channels in mature markets with a low proportion

70、of prepaid customers:the average share of direct sales has increased to 63 percent since 2020,up from 55 percent in the 20152019 period.Branded branches(either owned or franchised)suffered a substantial drop in market share with online channels taking up most of the slack and now accounting for more

71、 than 30 percent of transactions at most digitalized telcos.Due to the limited potential for cost optimization in indirect channels,direct channels have achieved a significant competitive edge,resulting in a 30 percent lower cost per transaction.Another key trend is that telco capital expenditure de

72、clined modestly between 2013 and 2022.However,Omdia analysis predicts it will revert to historical levels by 2027 due to accelerated investments in 5G and fiber deployment.At the same time,telcos will attempt to keep overall spending low by focusing on infrastructure sharing,asset monetization,and p

73、artnerships that enable investments in AI,technology,and green energy.Changing times can create winners or losersIt is important for telco leaders to understand the transforming power of these trends in supporting sustainable long-term growth.Hence,we advise leaders to include these trendsAI-driven

74、digitalization,enhanced customer journeys,transformative B2C and B2B growth strategies,alternative connectivity options,and cost optimizationinto their strategic thinking for a sharpened focus.Innovation emerges as the overarching theme that ties these together,whether its innovative strategies that

75、 help reinvigorate legacy businesses or new technologies such as AI that are already reinventing customer experiences and changing the way we approach operations.Implementing these ideas will improve general performance and simplify processes for telcos but also make accessibility easier for consume

76、rs.Looking ahead,these developments will define the business;proactive adoption can help gain competitive advantage.In hotly contested telco markets those that welcome change and innovation are likely to emerge as winners,while those who resist risk losing out.10Signaling the future:five telco trend

77、s in 2025Nikolai DobbersteinPartner,Kuala Lumpur Shiven Mahajan Consultant,Gurugram Shreyak BhardwajConsultant,Gurugram Tanveer KaurConsultant,Gurugram AuthorsThe authors wish to thank Arun Singh and Olivier Ducloux for their valuable contributions to this paper.11Signaling the future:five telco tre

78、nds in 2025For more information,permission to reprint or translate this work,and all other correspondence,please email .A.T.Kearney Korea LLC is a separate and independent legal entity operating under the Kearney name in Korea.A.T.Kearney operates in India as A.T.Kearney Limited(Branch Office),a bra

79、nch office of A.T.Kearney Limited,a company organized under the laws of England and Wales.2025,A.T.Kearney,Inc.All rights reserved.Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm.For nearly 100 years,we have been a trusted advisor to C-suites,government bodies,and nonprofit organizations.Our people make us who we are.Driven to be the difference between a big idea and making it happen,we work alongside our clients to regenerate their businesses to create a future that works for