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1、FEBRUARY 2025Driving with cleaner enginesThe evolution of diesel heavy-duty vehicles in China,20122023SHIYUE MAO,LINGXIAO XU,FELIPE RODRGUEZACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis publication is part of the NDC Transport Initiative for Asia(NDC-TIA).NDC-TIA is part of the International Climate Initiative(IKI).IKI is wo

2、rking under the leadership of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action,in close cooperation with its founder,the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Federal Foreign Office.For more information,visit https:/www.ndctransportinitiativeforasia.org.The authors thank all internal a

3、nd external reviewers,including Yihao Xie,Anirudh Narla,and Yuntian Zhang from the International Council on Clean Transportation and Dong Ma,Di Peng,and Shuxia Xie from the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences.The contents of this report represent the authors opinions only,and do not r

4、eflect any position or perspective of the funder or reviewers.International Council on Clean Transportation 1500 K Street NW,Suite 650 Washington,DC 20005communicationstheicct.org|www.theicct.org|TheICCT 2025 International Council on Clean Transportation(ID 262)iICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL H

5、EAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023EXECUTIVE SUMMARYChinas heavy-duty vehicle(HDV)industry has witnessed profound changes,driven by advancements in vehicle technology,shifting fuel types,and environmental regulations.This report assesses trends in Chinas HDV market between 2012 and 2023,a critical

6、period for technological and regulatory developments in the industry.It surveys the evolution of HDV sales by powertrain,vehicle specifications,emissions performance,and the market structure of fuel supply and transmission technologies for HDVs.This analysis finds that diesel vehicles continue to do

7、minate the HDV sector in China,although natural gas and battery electric vehicles have seen notable growth in market share in recent years.In terms of vehicle specifications,the HDV industry has shown a marked divergence between trucks and tractors on the one hand and buses and coaches on the other.

8、As illustrated in Figure ES1,between 2012 and 2023,trucks and tractors saw large increases in engine power(+74%),total weight(+51%),and engine displacement(+30%),while buses and coaches saw declines in all three parameters:of 1%for engine power,32%for total weight,and 32%for engine displacement.Figu

9、re ES1 Evolution of diesel HDV specifications and type-approved CO2 emissions from 2012 to 2023 Power(trucks/tractors)Power(buses/coaches)Total weight(trucks/tractors)Total weight(buses/coaches)Engine displacement(trucks/tractors)CO2 emissions(buses/coaches)CO2 emissions(trucks/tractors)-1%74%0%-40%

10、-32%51%30%-32%Engine displacement(buses/coaches)201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Notes:Values reflect sales-weighted fleet averages.Straight trucks,dump trucks,and tractor-trailers are represented with solid lines;coaches and city buses are represented with dashed lines.THE INTERNATIO

11、NAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGiiICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Type-approved CO2 emissionswhich are directly calculated from certified fuel consumption,the regulated metric in Chinas fuel economy standards for HDVshave shown a similar diverg

12、ence.Overall,buses and coaches have recorded a sustained decline in CO2 emissions since 2013,amounting to a 40%improvement by 2023.For trucks and tractors,the road to meeting regulatory targets has been bumpier.Sales-weighted average CO2 emissions from trucks and tractors initially increased due to

13、lenient regulations and the exclusion of heavy truck categoriesnotably dump trucks,which were not regulated by fuel consumption standards until Stage 2 standards took effect for all new type-approved models in 2015.Since the introduction of Stage 3 standards in 2019,the type-approved CO2 emissions o

14、f new trucks have fallen sharply,reaching parity with 2013 levels in 2023.This“inverted-U”pattern in Figure ES1 indicates progress on fuel consumption control by manufacturers despite growth in power,total weight,and engine displacement.The adoption of technologies such as common rail injection and

15、exhaust gas recirculation have contributed to improved fuel efficiency among trucks.iiiICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive summary.iIntroduction.1Definition,scope,and segmentation of HDVs .3Sales.4Type-approved CO2 emissions .9Tractor-t

16、railers.10Medium and heavy straight trucks .12Dump trucks.14Coaches.16References.23Appendix .241ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023INTRODUCTIONHeavy-duty vehicles(HDVs)account for a significant portion of road transport emissions in China:As of 2022,80%of nitrog

17、en oxides(NOX)and 90%of particulate matter(PM)was contributed by diesel HDVs,according to the latest annual report on environmental performance of mobile sources(Ministry of Ecology and Environment,2023).As the world strives to meet climate goals and transition to sustainable mobility,HDVs represent

18、 a critical area of focus for policymakers,manufacturers,and environmental stakeholders.Over the last decade,Chinas HDV industry has witnessed profound changes in vehicle technology and fuel types,driven in part by increasingly stringent environmental regulations.China does not have any direct,enfor

19、ceable regulations for curbing CO2 emissions from HDVs;instead,CO2 emissions are regulated indirectly through HDV fuel consumption standards.Since the first standards were introduced in 2012,they have been updated twice(in 2014 and 2019)and are to be updated again in mid-2025(Figure 1).Past updates

20、have gradually decreased the upper limit of fuel consumption for HDVs by segment and gross vehicle weight class.In Stage 2 and Stage 3,the fuel efficiency was improved by 10.5%14.5%and 10.7%17.9%,respectively(Mao et al.,2023).Figure 1Evolution of Chinas fuel consumption standards for heavy-duty vehi

21、cles2015201920142012202520202026Stage 1 First Chinese HDV fuel consumption standard Voluntary,not mandatory Only three HDV segments were included:trucks,coaches,tractor-trailers Implemented beginning of July 2012,with a 2-year transition periodStage 2 First mandatory standard on HDV fuel consumption

22、 in China Increased stringency by 10.5%14.5%for each segment Expanded to five segments,adding dump trucks and city buses Implemented beginning of July 2014,with a 1-year transition periodStage 3 More stringent than Stage 2 by 10.7%17.9%Implemented beginning of July 2019,with a 2-year transition peri

23、odStage 4 Switches test cycle from C-WTVC to CHTC More stringent than Stage 3 by 12%16%Introduces an ofcial formula for converting fuel consumptionto CO2 emissions Introduces criteria for type-approval of new model variants To be implemented beginning of July 2025,with a 2-yeartransition periodSourc

24、e:Liu and Mao(2024)THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG2ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023This report analyzes major trends in Chinas HDV industry from 2012 to 2023a period marked by significant regulatory development and technological

25、advancement in the HDV industry.It examines the evolution of HDV sales by powertrain,changes in vehicle specifications,patterns in type-approved CO2 emissions,and trends in fuel supply and transmission technologies for HDVs.This work builds upon previous ICCT analyses of Chinas fuel consumption stan

26、dards(Mao et al.,2021;Mao&Rodrigues,2022).3ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023DEFINITION,SCOPE,AND SEGMENTATION OF HDVS This report analyzes type-approval information for HDVs sold between 2012 and 2023.The data sources are from the Ministry of Industry and Info

27、rmation Technologys On-Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Catalogs(2018).Additionally,the analysis incorporates multiple re-aggregated datasets from third-party data providers.This study examines the five HDV categories covered under Chinas fuel consumption standards:straight trucks,dump t

28、rucks,tractor-trailers,city buses,and coaches(Table 1).All diesel vehicle models with a gross vehicle weight(GVW)above 3,500 kg were analyzed;for tractor-trailers,the gross combination weight(GCW)rather than the GVW was used,consistent with the way these vehicles are regulated in the fuel consumptio

29、n standards.Under the standards,each segment of HDVs must meet fuel efficiency targets on the basis of type-approved fuel consumption for individual models.Models are grouped by GVW or GCW,such that vehicles of the same category within a certain weight range are regulated by the same fuel consumptio

30、n standard.For instance,straight trucks with a GVW between 3.5 and 4.5 tonnes are covered by the same limit.The appendix presents segmentation,weight range,and fuel consumption limits for each vehicle category.Table 1 Vehicle categories assessed in this studyStraight trucks,including medium(GVW of 3

31、.512 tonnes)and heavy(GVW of 12 or more tonnes)modelsDump trucksTractor-trailersCity busesCoaches4ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023SALESFigure 2 Sales mix of HDVs in China,20122023201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023ElectricPlug-in hybridFuel cellG

32、asolineHybridNatural gasDiesel01.522.533.5Total sales(million)0.25DieselElectricNatural gas0%80%90%100%20122023 THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGApart from a drop in sales in 2015 due to an economic recession,Chinas diesel HDV market saw a decade-long boom before the COVI

33、D-19 pandemic,rising from 1.6 million new vehicles sold in 2012 to a peak of 2.9 million sold in 2020.Sales plummeted in 20202022 and have been slow to rebound amid declining demand from the construction and manufacturing industries(Figure 2)(Herlt et al.,2024).Diesel has long been the leading power

34、train among HDVs in China,though its market dominance has waned in the past decade.Such vehicles accounted for 96%of the HDV market in 2012,declining to 80%in 2023.5ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Conversely,natural gas and battery electric vehicles saw growt

35、h over this period.About 60,000 new compressed natural gas(CNG)/liquefied natural gas(LNG)-powered HDVs were sold in 2023,making up 7.7%of total HDV sales.The adoption of CNG/LNG-powered HDVs reflects both government efforts to promote natural gas as an alternative clean energy as well as operators

36、taking advantage of the lower cost of gas relative to diesel in recent years(Howe&Verma,2024).The uptake of electric HDVs also has risen in recent years,with battery electric trucks and buses reaching a 7.3%market share in 2023.VEHICLE SPECIFICATIONSFrom 2012 to 2023,the average curb weight of most

37、HDV categories remained relatively constant,fluctuating within a 10%variance(Figure 3).However,the curb weight of heavy straight trucks fell sharply between 2016 and 2018 due to a 2016 regulatory update by Chinas Ministry of Transport(MOT)limiting new straight trucks with two axles and a GVW between

38、 16 and 20 tonnes to a GVW of no more than 18 tonnes.In response,manufacturers reduced the curb weight of heavy straight trucks to accommodate as much payload as possible.As shown in Figure 4,all HDV categories saw increases in engine power between 2012 and 2023,with more rapid growth of 41%(+18 kW)

39、among medium straight trucks,39%(+103 kW)among tractor-trailers,and 33%(+71 kW)among dump trucks.Heavy straight trucks ended with a 4%(+6 kW)increase over the period,as the MOT regulation noted above resulted in a steep drop in engine power between 2017 and 2018.Figure 3Curb weight-35%-30%-25%-20%-1

40、5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Percentage change in average curb weightMedium straight truckCity busTractor-trailerCoachHeavy straight truckDump truckTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG6ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHIC

41、LES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 4Engine power-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Percentage change in engine powerMedium straight truckCity busTractor-trailerCoachHeavy straight truckDump truckTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGFrom 2012 to

42、2023,average engine displacementthe total volume of cylinders in an engine,a key measure of power outputdeclined for city buses and coaches(Figure 5).Heavy and medium straight trucks also saw a downward trend of engine displacement due to smaller curb weight and size.Tractor-trailers and dump trucks

43、,however,experienced a moderate increase in this specification.Power density,or the power output generated per liter of engine displacement,rose across all vehicle categories over the same period.City buses saw the greatest change in power density from 2012 to 2013,of 64%(+16.7 kW/L).In contrast,tra

44、ctor-trailers,the heaviest category examined,saw the smallest increase,of 19%(+4.8 kW/L)(Figure 6).Figure 5 Engine displacement-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Percentage change in engine displacemenetMedium straight truckCity busTractor-trailerCoachHeavy strai

45、ght truckDump truckTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG 7ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 6 Power density10%0%20%30%40%50%60%70%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Percentage change in power densityMedium straight tr

46、uckCity busTractor-trailerCoachHeavy straight truckDump truckTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG In 2023,relative to 2012,coaches,straight trucks,and tractor-trailers were more intensively grouped around particular weight thresholds(e.g.,3,500 kg for coaches,4,500 kg for st

47、raight trucks,and 49,000 kg for tractor-trailers)(Figure 7).This reflects shifts in vehicle applications as well as the impacts of regulatory measures,as manufacturers have sought to maximize the payload capacity of their vehicles by designing them around the upper limit of regulatory GVW classes,a

48、market tendency also known as vehicle enlargement.Certain sales trends by GVW stand out.Heavier coaches have become less popular as fewer large coaches have been required for long distance travel due a boom of high-speed trains and increased flight coverage.From 2012 to 2023,passenger turnover rampe

49、d up in the high-speed rail industry,from 1.9 billion to 2.7 billion people,and almost doubled in the airline industry,from 320 million to 610 million people.Meanwhile,medium straight trucks below 4,500 kg have grown in popularity since 2020,after a 2017 MOT decision to waive work permit requirement

50、s for trucks under this weight threshold.For tractor-trailers,which are mostly responsible for long-haul delivery,models with a total weight of 48,800 kg were most popular in 2023.This follows the MOTs introduction in 2018 of a hard cap of 49,000 kg on the total weight of trucks used for freight pur

51、poses,which limits the maximum GCW for tractor-trailers with 6 axles,the typical configuration of the heaviest class of tractor-trailers in China.8ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 7 Sales of each vehicle category by GVW(and GCW for tractor-trailers),201

52、2 and 2023!Tractor-trailerStraight truckDump truckCoach50,00040,0002023201230,00020,00010,0003,500City busGVW/GCW(kg)GVW:16,500 kgSales:1,508GVW:6,500 kgSales:66GVW:3,550 kgSales:77,079GVW:25,000 kgSales:60,830GVW:3,510 kgSales:36,093GVW:31,000 kgSales:19,937GVW:4,495 kgSales:140,014GVW:4,495 kgSale

53、s:93,225GCW:48,730 kgSales:13,718GCW:48,800 kgSales:47,456THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG9ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023TYPE-APPROVED CO2 EMISSIONS For each vehicle category,CO2 emission trends are assessed by GVW/GCW class:In

54、Stage 3,there are 8 classes for tractor-trailers,11 for dump trucks,11 for straight trucks,and 12 for city buses and coaches.Vehicles of the same category and GVW class are held to the same maximum fuel consumption limit,such that the regulation can be visualized as a“staircase”by year.In this study

55、,we convert fuel consumption from diesel in L/100 km to CO2 emissions in g/km.For each category,we then present CO2 emission trends for all GVW classes and compare emissions with regulatory limits for the class with the highest sales in 2023,which are described in Table 2.1 Table 2 Selected vehicle

56、segments and GVW classes for CO2 emissions analysisVehicle categoriesGVW/GCW(kg)Tractor-trailer46,00049,000Medium straight truck3,5004,500Heavy straight truck16,00020,000Dump truck25,00031,000Coach3,5004,500As mentioned above,China has a per-vehicle fuel consumption regulation for new models.The fir

57、st such regulation,Stage 1,was enacted in 2012 and set limits for coaches,straight trucks,and tractor-trailers.An updated regulation,Stage 2,came into effect in 2014 and extended limits to dump trucks and city buses.Stage 3 came into effect in 2021 and imposed more stringent requirements on fuel con

58、sumption for all vehicle categories.Stage 4 standards will take effect in July 2025 and will tighten fuel consumption limits by approximately 12%16%compared with Stage 3,depending on the vehicle type.Amid these regulatory efforts,CO2 emissions from diesel vehicles in China have generally declined ov

59、er the past decade.Figures 816 illustrate the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of diesel HDVs from 2012 to 2023.1 City buses were not selected for analysis because of the high electrification rate in this segment.10ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023TRACTOR-TR

60、AILERSThe historical CO2 emission trends of the three best-selling GCW classes are shown in Figure 8.The introduction of Stage 1 standards did not initially drive down gross CO2 emissions from tractors,as the limit was set considerably above the type-approved fuel consumption of these vehicles.The m

61、ost significant reductions came with the adoption of Stage 3 standards:As illustrated in Figure 9,the best-selling tractor-trailer class in 2023(with a GCW of 46,00049,000 kg)recorded a decrease in average CO2 emissions from 1,139.3 g/km in 2021 to 1,024.1 g/km in 2023,a 10.1%improvement.As of 2023,

62、0.6%of tractor-trailers in this class met the Stage 4 standards.Figure 8 Sales-weighted CO2 emissions of tractor-trailers,highlighting the three best-selling GCW classes-40%-50%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Percentage change in CO2 emissionsGCW:46,00049,000 kg20

63、23 sales:116,102GCW:49,000 kg2023 sales:957GCW:40,00043,000 kg2023 sales:9,312 THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG 11ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 9 Sales-weighted CO2 emission compliance for tractor-trailers of the best-sel

64、ling GCW class(46,00049,000 kg),converted from fuel consumption data1,0001,2001,400201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023YearSales20,00040,00060,000Stage 3Stage 2Stage 1Stage 4CO2 emissions g CO2/kmEfective regulationsStage 4Sales-weighted averageTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPOR

65、TATION THEICCT.ORG12ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023MEDIUM AND HEAVY STRAIGHT TRUCKS Among medium straight trucks,Stage 1 limits were too high to bring about a decrease in CO2 emissions.For the best-selling GVW class in 2023(3,5004,500 kg),Stage 3 standards w

66、ere intended to bring down average CO2 emissions by 11.5%from Stage 2(Figure 10).Average CO2 emissions fell by an additional 2.5%in 2023,compared with 2021.As of 2023,approximately 22.9%of medium straight trucks of the most popular GVW class already met Stage 4 limits(Figure 11).Figure 10 Sales-weig

67、hted CO2 emissions of straight trucks,highlighting the three best-selling GVW classes-40%-50%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023GVW:3,5004,500 kg2023 sales:170,058Percentage change in CO2 emissionsGVW:10,50012,500 kg2023 sales:4,676GVW:16,00020,000 kg2023 sales:9,407

68、THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG13ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 11 Sales-weighted CO2 emission compliance for medium straight trucks of the best-selling GVW class in 2023(3,5004,500 kg),converted from fuel consumption dat

69、a200300400201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023YearCO2 emissions g CO2/kmEfective regulationsStage 4Stage 3Stage 2Stage 1Stage 4Sales-weighted averageSales25,00050,00075,000THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGAs with medium trucks,heavy truck emissions were largel

70、y unaffected by Stage 1 standards,which were set well above average emissions.Gross fuel consumption declined with the adoption of more stringent fuel consumption standards(Figure 12).Stage 3 drove down the average CO2 emission in the best-selling GVW class(16,00020,000 kg)by 5.1%in 2023,compared wi

71、th 2021.As of 2023,5.4%of straight truck models and 5.5%of heavy trucks sold already met the stricter Stage 4 criteria.14ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 12 Sales-weighted CO2 emission compliance for heavy straight trucks of the best-selling GVW class i

72、n 2023(16,00020,000 kg),converted from fuel consumption data500600700800900201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023YearCO2 emissions g CO2/km10,00020,00030,00040,000SalesEfective regulationsStage 4Stage 3Stage 2Stage 1Stage 4Sales-weighted average THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORT

73、ATION THEICCT.ORGDUMP TRUCKSDump trucks saw general improvement on fuel consumption due to the introduction of Stage 2 and Stage 3 standards.In 2023,the average fuel consumption of the top-selling GVW class(25,00031,000 kg)was 39.5 L/100 km,an 8.5%improvement from 2021(Figure 13).As of 2023,approxim

74、ately 14.3%of dump trucks in this class already met the Stage 4 standards(Figure 14).15ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 13 Sales-weighted CO2 emissions of dump trucks,highlighting the three best-selling GVW classes-30%-25%-20%-10%-5%-15%0%10%15%5%20%201

75、220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023GVW:25,00030,000 kg2023 sales:19,472GVW:16,00020,000 kg2023 sales:12,120Percentage change in CO2 emissionsGVW:3,5004,500 kg2023 sales:6,609THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG16ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICL

76、ES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 14 Sales-weighted CO2 emission compliance for dump trucks of the best-selling GVW class in 2023(25,00031,000 kg),converted from fuel consumption data8001,0001,2001,400201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023YearSales-weighted averageSales5,00010,00015,000Efective r

77、egulationsStage 4Stage 3Stage 2Stage 4Not mandatedCO2 emissions g CO2/km THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGCOACHESThe fuel efficiency of coaches has likewise improved due to increasingly stringent fuel consumption standards over the last decade.Stage 3 drove down the avera

78、ge fuel consumption of the best-selling class(3,5004,500 kg)by 4.6%in 2023,compared with 2021(Figure 15).As of 2023,approximately 1.4%of coaches in this class already met Stage 4 standards(Figure 16).17ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 15 Sales-weighted

79、CO2 emissions of coaches,highlighting the three best-selling GVW classes-40%-50%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023GVW:16,50018,000 kg2023 sales:7,945GVW:12,50014,500 kg2023 sales:6,159Percentage change in CO2 emissionsGVW:3,5004,500 kg2023 sales:118,013THE INTERNATI

80、ONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG18ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 16 Sales-weighted CO2 emission compliance for coaches of the best-selling GVW class(3,5004,500 kg),converted from fuel consumption data20025030035040020122013201420152016

81、2017201820192020202120222023Year10,00020,00030,00040,000SalesEfective regulationsStage 4CO2 emissions g CO2/kmSales-weighted averageStage 3Stage 2Stage 1Stage 4THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG EFFICIENCY AND EMISSION CONTROL TECHNOLOGYFigure 17 illustrates the evolution

82、of the market structure of fuel supply technologies for HDVs.Among the major trends between 2012 and 2023 was the application of common rail fuel injection,whereby fuel is stored at high pressure in a single rail and injected into each cylinder independently.This allows for more precise control of f

83、uel delivery for improved performance and fuel efficiency and can therefore reduce pollutant emissions.Common rail was adopted with the China III emission standards,which took in effect in 2008,and took about a decade to be fully adopted by heavy-duty vehicles.In 2023,almost all diesel HDVs in China

84、 were equipped with common rail systems,regardless of engine displacement or size.19ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 17 Market structure of fuel supply technology,by engine displacement(ED)Market share of technologies0%20%40%60%80%100%ED 3L3L ED 6L6L ED

85、 9L9L 12L2012202320122023201220232012202320122023Common railOthersTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGFigure 18 shows the market shares of mainstream transmission techniques.In general,manual transmission(MT)is still dominating the heavy-duty truck industry,with over 80%and

86、up to 95%of the market share for each engine displacement cluster between 2012 and 2023.For heavier trucks,especially those with engine displacement over 12 L,automatic transmission(AT)and automated manual transmission(AMT)saw fluctuation,ending with a cumulative market share of approximately 30%.Th

87、is shift of market structure toward these alternative transmission systems is mostly attributable to demand from customers for an easier and more comfortable driving experience(Detroit Diesel Corporation,2017).Continuously variable transmission(CVT)was used in some light and medium trucks until 2017

88、 but was subsequently phased out of the configuration table of trucks and tractors due to its incompatibility with the high torque demands and durability requirements of most HDVs.20ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 18 Market structure of transmission te

89、chnology,by EDED 3L3L ED 6L6L ED 9L9L 12L2012202320122023201220232012202320122023ATAMTCVTMTMarket share0%20%40%60%80%100%THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORGFigure 19 shows the year-by-year market evolution of aftertreatment technologies,which control emissions from the tail

90、pipe.The evolution of emission control technology has tracked the development of pipeline emission standards for HDVs:China IV(which took effect in 2015),China V(2017),China VI-a(2021),and China VI-b(2023).Selective catalytic reduction(SCR)systems have been the dominant technology since China III;af

91、ter China V,they reached a 100%adoption rate.Exhaust gas recirculation(EGR),which is used to reduce engine-out NOX emissions,was introduced to meet China V requirements and gradually rolled out until it achieved about 70%market share with China VI.Diesel particulate filter(DPF)technology,which is a

92、device designed to remove soot and particulate matter from exhaust gases,grew in market share from less than 10%under China V to 100%after China VI,which made this technology a requirement in all emission control packages.Since China VI,emission control systems have converged toward similar technica

93、l approaches,with the only difference being the presence or absence of EGR.Systems without EGR require higher NOX conversion efficiencies.In 2023,the two most popular technology combinations split the market of diesel HDVs:Diesel Oxidation Catalyst(DOC)+DPF+SCR+Ammonia Slip Catalyst(ASC)(35%)and EGR

94、+DOC+DPF+SCR+ASC(65%).21ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023Figure 19 Market structure of aftertreatment technology0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023SCRSCR+DOC+DPFEGR+DOC+DPFSCR+DOC+DPF+ASCSCR+DOC+DPF+EGRSCR+DOC+DPF+

95、EGR+ASCNoneOthersChinaVI-bChinaVI-aChinaVChinaIVChinaIIIMarket shareTHE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG22ICCT REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023REFERENCESDetroit Diesel Corporation.(2017,June 14).What is an automated manual transmission?htt

96、ps:/ new era:Trends shaping the heavy-duty-truck market in China|McKinsey&Company.https:/ 23).LNG-fuelled trucking accelerates in Asia,denting diesel demand.Reuters.https:/ Stage 4 fuel consumption standard for heavy-duty commercial vehicles.International Council on Clean Transportation.https:/theic

97、ct.org/publication/china-stage-4-fuel-consumption-standard-hdvs-dec24/Mao,S.,Ragon,P.-L.,&Rodrguez,F.(2021).The evolution of commercial vehicles in China:A retrospective evaluation of fuel consumption standards and recommendations for the future.International Council on Clean Transportation.https:/t

98、heicct.org/publication/the-evolution-of-commercial-vehicles-in-china-a-retrospective-evaluation-of-fuel-consumption-standards-and-recommendations-for-the-future/Mao,S.,&Rodrguez,F.(2022).The evolution of heavy-duty vehicles in China:A retrospective evaluation of CO2 and pollutant emissions from 2012

99、 to 2021.International Council on Clean Transportation.https:/theicct.org/publication/china-hvs-ndc-tia-evolution-hdv-emissions-oct22/Mao,S.,Yang,L.,&Zhang,Y.(2023).The Stage 4 proposed amendment to Chinas heavy-duty vehicle fuel consumption standard:ICCT reflections.International Council on Clean T

100、ransportation.https:/theicct.org/publication/china-hvs-stage-4-amend-reflections-jan23/Ministry of Ecology and Environment.(2023).中國移動源環境管理年報2023 China mobile source environmental management annual report 2023.https:/ of Industry and Information Technology.(2018).道路機動車輛生產企業及產品信息查詢系統 MIIT on-road veh

101、icle manufacturer and product catalogs.https:/app.miit- REPORT|THE EVOLUTION OF DIESEL HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN CHINA,20122023APPENDIX Table A1Segmentation,GVW/GCW,and diesel consumption limitsGVW class(tonnes)Fuel consumption limits(L/100km)GVW class(tonnes)Fuel consumption limits(L/100km)GCW class(t

102、onnes)Fuel consumption limits(L/100km)Straight truck3.54.511.5Dump truck3.54.513.0Tractor-trailer3.51828.04.55.512.24.55.513.5182730.55.5713.85.5715.0273532.078.516.378.517.5354034.08.510.518.38.510.519.5404335.510.512.521.310.512.522.0434638.012.51624.012.51625.0464940.0162027.0162029.54940.5202532

103、.5202537.5253137.5253141.03138.53141.5Coach3.54.510.6City bus3.54.511.54.55.511.54.55.513.05.5713.35.5714.778.514.578.516.78.510.516.08.510.519.410.512.517.710.512.522.312.514.519.112.514.525.514.516.520.114.516.528.016.51821.316.51831.0182222.3182234.5222524.0222538.52525.02541.5www.theicct.org communicationstheicct.orgtheicct.org B E I J I N G|B E R L I N|N E W D E L H I|SA N F R A N C I S CO|SO PAU LO|WAS H I N GTO N D C