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1、United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Coffee:World Markets and Trade Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription,click here to register:https:/ December 2024 Chinas coffee consumption surged almost 150 percent in the last 10 years and i

2、s forecast to reach 6.3 million bags(60 kilograms)in 2024/25.With domestic production hovering around 2.0 million bags during this period,imports satisfied rising demand.Whereas lower-quality soluble coffee dominated trade at the beginning of this period,higher-quality green coffee now accounts for

3、over 60 percent of total imports.While tea remains Chinas primary beverage,coffee consumption is becoming more popular,especially with younger professionals in urban areas who increasingly purchase coffee away from home.Retailers are concentrated in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen but have b

4、een on the rise in lesser populated cities such as Chengdu,Hangzhou,Suzhou,and Chongqing.These markets were initially dominated by international companies that arrived after trade liberalization in the early 2000s,but domestic retail chains have expanded in recent years.This trend has been facilitat

5、ed by companies offering on-line purchase for either in-store pickup or delivery,which has raised volumes and lowered costs.This further stimulated consumption as coffee became more affordable.As the market grows,consumers are transitioning from imported soluble coffee to locally roasted coffee iden

6、tified by origin(domestic or imported).China grows almost exclusively Arabica coffee in the prefectures of Baoshan,Dehong,Puer,and Lincang in the Yunnan Province where the altitude ranges between 1,000 and 2,000 meters above sea level.Output is forecast at 1.9 million bags in 2024/25.While Catimor i

7、s the most common variety grown due to its higher resistance to diseases such as leaf rust,it sometimes produces an 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02014/152015/162016/172017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25Million 60 Kilogram BagsConsumptionForecastChinas Expanding Coffee Consumpti

8、on inferior flavor.In response to demand for higher quality coffee,growers have begun planting other Arabica varieties such as Bourbon and Typica which offer better flavor and more favorably compete with imports.In the last decade,Chinas total coffee imports nearly tripled to 5.5 million bags and ar

9、e forecast to reach 5.6 million in 2024/25.This explosive growth was driven by green coffee jumping from just 900,000 bags in 2014/15 to a forecast 3.6 million.Vietnam and Indonesia were initially top suppliers but have since been overtaken by Brazil and Colombia.Import demand for soluble coffee has

10、 remained relatively flat during this period and is forecast at 1.8 million bags in 2024/25,with top suppliers including Vietnam and Malaysia.China typically imports less than 400,000 bags of roasted coffee,primarily from the European Union and United States.Roasted coffee is less desirable for impo

11、rts because it begins to lose flavor and aroma shortly after being roasted unless shipped quickly in specially designed packaging.Chinas consumption growth is expected to continue as this largely tea drinking culture embraces a higher caffeinated beverage and be a major factor in growing global coff

12、ee demand.2024/25 Coffee Overview World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast 6.9 million bags higher than the previous year to 174.9 million due primarily to rebounding output in Vietnam and Indonesia.World exports are forecast modestly higher as gains in Vietnam and Indonesia more than offset

13、reduced shipments from Brazil.Global consumption is expected to rise 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million,with the largest gains in the European Union,the United States,and China.Ending stocks are expected to drop 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million.Brazil combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast

14、at 66.4 million bags,up just 100,000 bags from the previous year.Arabica output is forecast 500,000 bags higher to 45.4 million while the Robusta harvest is expected to slip 400,000 bags to 21.0 million.Drought and high temperatures during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and

15、Robusta yields to fall below initial projections.With nearly flat output,coffee bean exports are forecast to drop 2.6 million bags to 40.5 million due primarily to last years inventory drawdown,which lowered total supplies.Vietnam production is forecast to recover 2.6 million bags to 30.1 million bu

16、t remain below the 2021/22 record crop.The beginning of the rainy season got off to a dry start and was followed by below-average precipitation and temperatures in many of the major growing areas.Whereas similar conditions lowered yields and output the previous 2 harvests,growers this year responded

17、 to higher coffee prices by picking as much as possible rather than omitting smaller,less profitable cherries.Bean exports are forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million on higher available supplies.0510152025303540 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25Million 60 Kilogram

18、 BagsWorld Ending Stocks Continue to TightenForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 December 2024Global Market Analysis Colombia Arabica production is forecast up 100,000 bags to 12.9 million on favorable growing conditions and improving yields.Bean exports,mostly to the United States and European Union

19、,are forecast up 200,000 bags to 10.9 million on slightly higher supplies and sustained demand.Central America and Mexico production is forecast 600,000 bags higher to 17.0 million,with Arabica accounting for 95 percent of output.Honduras is expected 300,000 bags higher to 5.3 million and Nicaragua

20、is expected to gain 300,000 bags to 2.7 million on improved yields.Production is expected flat in Costa Rica,El Salvador,Guatemala,Mexico,and Panama.Bean exports for the region are forecast up 800,000 bags to 13.7 million,fueled by higher supplies in Honduras and Nicaragua.Indonesia combined Arabica

21、 and Robusta harvest is forecast to rebound nearly 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million.Robusta output is expected to recover 2.7 million bags to 9.5 million on favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java where approximately 75 percent is grown.Last years crop suffered

22、 from excessive rain during cherry development and caused sub-optimal conditions for pollination.Arabica production is seen rising slightly to 1.4 million bags.Elevated output is expected to translate to exports gaining 2.2 million bags to 6.5 million.European Union imports are forecast up 1.0 milli

23、on bags to 45.0 million due to higher shipments from Vietnam and Indonesia.Top suppliers in 2023/24 included Brazil(43 percent),Vietnam(22 percent),Uganda(7 percent),and Honduras(6 percent).Ending stocks are expected to continue sliding to 8.0 million bags.The United States imports the second-larges

24、t amount of coffee beans and is forecast to gain 800,000 bags to 22.3 million on rising consumption.Top suppliers in 2023/24 included Brazil(32 percent),Colombia(20 percent),Vietnam(8 percent),and Honduras(7 percent).Ending stocks are forecast unchanged at 5.7 million bags.Revisions to 2023/24 Forec

25、asts World production is lowered 1.2 million bags from the June 2024 estimate to 168.0 million.Vietnam is reduced 1.6 million bags to 27.5 million as drought and high temperatures lowered yields.Colombia is up 600,000 bags to 12.8 million as coffee cherry borer insect infestations were not as severe

26、 as anticipated.World bean exports are raised 200,000 bags to 119.8 million.Brazil is up 1.6 million bags to 43.1 million on higher-than-anticipated stocks drawdown.Vietnam is reduced 2.3 million bags to 22.6 million on lower exportable supplies.Indonesia Robusta Production Forecast to Rebound024681

27、012 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25Million 60 Kilogram Bags Robusta ArabicaForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 December 2024Global Market Analysis World ending stocks are reduced 1.6 million bags to 22.3 million.Brazil is lowered 1.2 million bags to 1.7 million on higher ship

28、ments.European Union is reduced 900,000 bags to 8.0 million on lower imports.The next release of this publication will be on June 25,2025.Coffee HS Codes and Conversion Factors HS Code Attribute Description Conversion Rate 090111 Coffee,Green Coffee,not roasted,not decaffeinated 1.00 090112 Coffee,G

29、reen Coffee,not roasted,decaffeinated 1.00 090121 Coffee,Roasted Coffee,roasted,not decaffeinated 1.19 090122 Coffee,Roasted Coffee,roasted,decaffeinated 1.19 210111 Coffee,Soluble Coffee extracts,essences and concentrates 2.60 210112 Coffee,Soluble Coffee preparations with a basis of extracts,essen

30、ces or concentrates 2.60 For additional information,please contact Tony Halstead(202-720-4620),(Tony.Halsteadusda.gov).The Coffee:World Markets and Trade circular is based on reports from FAS Overseas Posts and on available secondary information.The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS

31、Online at:https:/gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx.Please visit https:/www.fas.usda.gov/data/coffee-world-markets-and-trade to view archived reports.PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available online at:https:/www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS C

32、offee website at:https:/www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/coffee for additional data and analysis.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 December 2024Global Market AnalysisApril-MarchJuly-JuneOctober-SeptemberAngolaBrazilCameroonBoliviaCubaCentral African RepublicBurundiDominican RepublicChinaEcuadorHaitiCo

33、lombiaIndonesiaPhilippinesCongo(Kinshasa)MadagascarTanzaniaCosta RicaPapua New GuineaCote dIvoirePeruEl SalvadorRwandaEthiopiaGhanaGuatemalaGuineaHondurasIndiaJamaicaKenyaLaosLiberiaMalawiMalaysiaMexicoNicaraguaNigeriaPanamaSierra LeoneThailandTogoUgandaUnited StatesVenezuelaVietnamYemenNon-producin

34、g countries are on an October-September marketing year.Marketing Years for Producing CountriesForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 December 2024Global Market AnalysisCoffee SummaryThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2020/212021/222022/232023/24Jun2024/25Dec2024/25 Arabica Productionnone49,700 Brazil36,40039,800

35、44,90048,20045,40013,400 Colombia11,80010,70012,76012,40012,9007,600 Ethiopia8,1507,3008,6008,3608,3606,500 Honduras4,8005,7005,0005,3005,3003,369 Peru4,2003,4754,0004,2504,3503,000 Mexico3,2003,0003,3253,3503,3253,810 Guatemala3,4103,1503,3003,0003,3002,550 Nicaragua2,7182,4302,2002,5252,5251,900 C

36、hina1,8001,8001,8001,9001,8001,300 Indonesia1,2801,2001,3501,4001,4001,650 India1,5831,6671,4801,4001,4001,472 Costa Rica1,2151,1001,1001,1001,100950 Vietnam1,1001,0001,0001,1501,100730 Uganda9909901,0001,0001,000650 Papua New Guinea7258259308259153,539 Other3,7293,6423,6343,6953,670102,120 Total87,

37、10087,77996,37999,85597,845Robusta Productionnone28,050 Vietnam30,48027,30026,50027,85029,00020,200 Brazil21,70022,80021,40021,70021,0009,400 Indonesia9,3009,5006,8009,5009,5005,900 Uganda5,0605,5755,4005,4005,4003,917 India4,1174,2004,5804,6004,8002,000 Malaysia2,0002,0001,3301,5001,500910 Cote dIv

38、oire1,1101,0201,3251,4001,400600 Thailand650700750700700525 Tanzania550550600625625530 Mexico5405455455505452,407 Other2,4482,4162,3952,5552,54074,439 Total77,95576,60671,62576,38077,010Productionnone69,900 Brazil58,10062,60066,30069,90066,40029,000 Vietnam31,58028,30027,50029,00030,10013,400 Colomb

39、ia11,80010,70012,76012,40012,90010,700 Indonesia10,58010,7008,15010,90010,9007,600 Ethiopia8,1507,3008,6008,3608,3606,630 Uganda6,0506,5656,4006,4006,4005,567 India5,7005,8676,0606,0006,2006,500 Honduras4,8005,7005,0005,3005,3003,369 Peru4,2003,4754,0004,2504,3503,530 Mexico3,7403,5453,8703,9003,870

40、3,930 Guatemala3,5403,2703,4203,1203,4202,650 Nicaragua2,8382,5902,3602,6852,6851,900 China1,8001,8001,8001,9001,8002,000 Malaysia2,0002,0001,3301,5001,500910 Cote dIvoire1,1101,0201,3251,4001,4001,125 Tanzania1,2001,2001,3501,4001,4001,472 Costa Rica1,2151,1001,1001,1001,100700 Papua New Guinea7758

41、75980875965693 Kenya860750775750750600 Thailand650700750700700540 El Salvador600550500450500480 Venezuela500500500500500485 Laos385410430450450425 Philippines450475450450450255 Ecuador2603543703553552,198 Other2,1722,0391,9242,1902,100176,559 Total165,055164,385168,004176,235174,855Coffee marketing

42、year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.To access a complete dataset for each country,please visit:http:/apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspxForeign Agricultural

43、 Service/USDA 6 December 2024Global Market AnalysisCoffee Summary,ContinuedThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2020/212021/222022/232023/24Jun2024/25Dec2024/25 Bean Exportsnone41,689 Brazil35,57632,20043,10042,50040,50022,450 Vietnam26,11026,00022,60024,40024,40011,500 Colombia11,0009,45010,70010,80010,9006,46

44、6 Indonesia6,3356,7354,2856,5006,5006,514 Uganda5,8506,2506,3006,3006,3004,675 Ethiopia4,8313,9105,6104,8005,2006,010 Honduras4,6505,3104,7005,0004,9003,818 India4,9373,9244,3604,2004,4003,326 Peru4,0653,3253,9204,1004,2003,675 Guatemala3,3353,0003,1502,8403,20011,024 Other12,28810,84111,02811,67611

45、,831121,147 Total118,977110,945119,753123,116122,331Roast and Ground Exportsnone2,415 European Union2,6802,9903,1102,1002,1001,870 Switzerland1,8501,7651,8001,8501,850550 Vietnam550450400400400245 Colombia26521023020020040 China652015020100252 Mexico1481207015010032 Brazil544550515056 Indonesia43577

46、0505030 Panama323228353010 Costa Rica101010101017 Other21172121215,517 Total5,7185,7165,9394,8874,911Soluble Exportsnone3,954 Brazil4,0553,9003,6004,1003,7002,300 Vietnam2,3501,8902,0001,7002,5002,780 Malaysia2,9752,5002,3002,4002,4001,970 India2,3102,4902,5352,1302,1301,460 European Union1,8051,715

47、1,9251,5001,5001,350 Indonesia1,0501,0401,0001,0001,000885 Thailand9909001,0951,0001,000865 Mexico6958809009509501,010 Colombia1,1009508301,000900380 China3754504753254001,268 Other1,2011,1901,1301,1351,13518,222 Total18,90617,90517,79017,24017,615Exportsnone45,675 Brazil39,68536,14546,75046,65144,2

48、5025,300 Vietnam29,01028,34025,00026,50027,30012,755 Colombia12,36510,61011,76012,00012,0007,872 Indonesia7,4287,8325,3557,5507,5505,794 India7,2586,4206,9066,3406,5406,514 Uganda5,8506,2506,3006,3006,3004,675 Ethiopia4,8313,9105,6104,8005,2006,010 Honduras4,6505,3104,7005,0004,9003,326 Peru4,0653,3

49、253,9204,1004,2003,875 European Union4,4854,7055,0353,6003,60023,090 Other23,97421,71922,14622,40223,017144,886 Total143,601134,566143,482145,243144,857Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year fo

50、r non-producer countries begins in October.Roasted coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of roasted coffee by 1.19.Soluble coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of soluble coffee by 2.6.For each non-producing country,the tra

51、de balance between imports and exports is used in order to avoid double-counting for these figures.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 December 2024Global Market AnalysisCoffee Summary,ContinuedThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2020/212021/222022/232023/24Jun2024/25Dec2024/25 Bean Importsnone43,875 European

52、Union46,60044,54043,97547,50045,00024,320 United States25,22522,54021,48024,50022,3006,520 Japan6,8005,8606,2206,5006,5001,675 China1,6601,9653,4053,0003,6003,390 Russia3,4003,5003,5003,5003,5003,450 Switzerland3,4003,2903,3453,3003,3002,860 Canada2,9402,7002,9802,9003,1002,635 Korea,South3,0152,820

53、2,9602,9003,1002,270 United Kingdom2,7252,2852,4502,4502,6002,200 Algeria2,0502,0001,9001,9002,00018,907 Other20,65820,89020,01120,93219,977112,102 Total118,473112,390112,226119,382114,977Roast and Ground Importsnone580 United Kingdom580775740700700605 United States580640770600700475 Canada550450185

54、400400360 Korea,South390355390375400460 Ukraine450400440400400460 Russia305350350350350205 Australia200200185200200310 China350290210250200200 Saudi Arabia210200200200200200 Vietnam2008200300200781 Other8858008308218364,636 Total4,7004,4684,5004,5964,586Soluble Importsnone5,500 Philippines5,7005,200

55、5,0005,5005,0001,660 Canada1,8401,9601,8151,9001,9001,825 China2,1701,9751,8701,8001,800751 Indonesia7259831,0001,0001,000105 United Kingdom6809209509001,000585 United States1,2207251,250900900530 Japan500535590650650210 Kazakhstan325500500500500315 Russia350400400400400350 Guatemala3443453553503703

56、,558 Other3,8203,5233,4563,6153,51015,389 Total17,67417,06617,18617,51517,030Importsnone43,875 European Union46,60044,54043,97547,50045,00025,510 United States27,02523,90523,50026,00023,9007,150 Japan7,4156,5056,9057,2607,2506,160 Philippines6,5405,9005,8506,3005,8003,810 China4,1804,2305,4855,0505,

57、6004,995 Canada5,3305,1104,9805,2005,4002,955 United Kingdom3,9853,9804,1404,0504,3004,165 Russia4,0554,2504,2504,2504,2502,995 Korea,South3,4053,1753,3503,2753,5003,450 Switzerland3,4003,2903,3453,3003,30027,062 Other28,91229,03928,13229,30828,293132,127 Total140,847133,924133,912141,493136,593Coff

58、ee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.Roasted coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of roasted coffee by 1.19.Sol

59、uble coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of soluble coffee by 2.6.For each non-producing country,the trade balance between imports and exports is used in order to avoid double-counting for these figures.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 December 2024Global M

60、arket AnalysisCoffee Summary,ContinuedThousand 60-Kilogram Bags2020/212021/222022/232023/24Jun2024/25Dec2024/25 Domestic Consumptionnone41,271 European Union41,88244,52239,60741,80042,04625,922 United States26,70824,62323,55026,05023,95022,280 Brazil22,34022,45022,56022,67022,6707,354 Japan7,2106,88

61、66,9967,3007,1766,585 Philippines7,1906,4756,5007,0506,5504,480 China4,9205,2805,7656,2006,3004,995 Canada5,3305,1104,9805,2005,4004,450 Indonesia4,7504,7714,7754,8004,8002,955 United Kingdom3,9853,9804,1404,0504,3004,165 Russia4,0554,2504,2504,2504,2502,720 Vietnam3,2003,2003,3003,6003,6002,995 Kor

62、ea,South3,4053,1753,3503,2753,5002,589 Mexico2,8503,0353,1903,1003,1503,000 Ethiopia3,3643,4303,0003,5503,1002,080 Colombia2,1452,1502,2782,2752,2802,055 Australia2,3052,1352,0902,2002,2002,240 Algeria2,0902,0501,9501,9502,0501,165 Turkey1,2851,5901,5451,6251,5751,200 Saudi Arabia1,1401,3801,4401,35

63、01,350425 Iran6357701,0401,0001,1001,180 Switzerland1,1851,1601,1851,1001,1001,235 Ukraine1,3001,0901,1201,1201,0701,180 India8759009501,3201,025650 Thailand725730880925925845 Jordan73072580581082512,098 Other12,25112,88211,77512,06411,779162,114 Total167,855168,749163,021170,634168,071Ending Stocks

64、none13,767 European Union14,0009,3138,64611,6008,0006,023 United States6,3785,7005,7005,7005,7002,693 Japan2,8982,5172,4262,0722,5004,390 Brazil5404,6201,6853,5391,2403,660 Vietnam3,5808398394399391,235 Colombia760885680590685488 China3583035584585581,669 Indonesia1,05650048055055017 Mexico997921348

65、173135 Ethiopia905040901003,417 Other2,1812,1281,08069842237,494 Total31,94026,93422,34725,78420,867Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October(Colombia),April(Indonesia)or July(Brazil),as examples.Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 December 2024Global Market Analysis