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1、Deutsche BankChief Investment OfficePERSPECTIVES 2025ANNUAL OUTLOOKInsights into your future investment choicesPOLITICS&POLICY The future is fiscalBONDS The return of the premiumSTOCKS The key to success2PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is co

2、nsidered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Per

3、formance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal p

4、erformance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.ContentsLetter to Investors p

5、.31 Macro&strategy Staying the course in turbulent times p.52 Politics&policy The future is fiscal p.83 Bonds The return of the premium p.104 Dollar Strong economy,strong currency p.125 Stocks The key to success p.146 U.S.stocks Centre of gravity p.167 European stocks Positives still apparent p.188

6、Commodities Off to new shores p.209 Alternatives Public&private mixology p.2210 Risk Recessions,rates&rotations p.24Macroeconomic and asset class forecasts p.26Glossary p.29Important note p.313PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered ma

7、rketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance re

8、fers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance

9、of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.We live in a world characterised by rapi

10、d and accelerating change:economic,social,political and technological.Change,in all its forms,is often unsettling but cannot be ignored.It will create challenges in 2025 and beyond,but also investment opportunities.This annual outlook discusses where they are likely to be.Change is happening against

11、 quite a challenging economic backdrop.2025 will not be a year of rapid GDP growth:U.S.growth is forecast at a modest 2.0%,with the Eurozone lagging some way behind(0.9%)and Chinese growth(4.2%)well below recent historical averages.Inflation could also prove tenacious,due to higher fiscal spending a

12、nd possible tariff hikes.This,in turn,will give central banks less room to cut interest rates as they seek to balance growth and inflation control.The result may well be uncertain and shifting market expectations,triggering more bouts of volatility than in 2024.Geopolitical fallout,perhaps due to ch

13、anging trade policy,could add to the uncertainty.So why am I broadly positive about the investment outlook for 2025?The key word is“productivity”.Productivity(i.e.what output we can produce with given inputs)appears to have increased only very slowly in recent years,and on some related measures(e.g.

14、real GDP per hour worked)may have fallen.This has had major economic and social costs.As Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman famously observed thirty years ago,“productivity isnt everything,but in the long run,it is almost everything”.Krugman was reflecting the views of many economists when he argued that l

15、ong-term gains in standards of living were dependent on raising output per worker.Thirty years on,as worker numbers fall relative to overall populations,raising output per worker seems even more urgent.The good news is that AI and associated technologies now offer a credible way to do this.We will p

16、ublish more on this structural issue of productivity and its important implications for capital markets early next year.Productivity gains will take time to accumulate,of course this will be a process that continues and deepens considerably beyond the necessarily limited time horizon of this 2025 ou

17、tlook.But market expectations on productivity are already having an impact on several of the 2025 investment themes discussed in this report.Remember,after all,that the value of a financial asset will not just reflect the present:it also(imperfectly)anticipates the future.For the global economy,we t

18、hink 2025 will be a case of staying the course in turbulent times.The ability of individual economies to weather possible geopolitical and policy challenges next year will be determined by a number of factors.But,as the growth numbers highlighted above show,there is already a distinction between a h

19、igh technology,higher productivity U.S.economy and a European economy that is lagging behind on the interlinked issues of productivity and investment.Deeply invested in growth Letter to Investors Christian Nolting,Global CIO4PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacifi

20、c this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative

21、of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,

22、even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.On polit

23、ics&policy,we think that the future is fiscal.Even though inflation is not fully tamed,the focus of policy is already moving from monetary to fiscal,as economies seek to find and drive new forms of development and growth.Expect further initiatives here,notably from China.Our asset class themes for 2

24、025,unsurprisingly,include several on stocks.For those investors who have the ability to take risks,these will be an effective way to be invested in growth and we see them as the key to portfolio success.As we discuss,there will be several reasons why,for stocks,the U.S.will remain the centre of gra

25、vity.These include expectations around rising profits,deregulation and tax relief.Elsewhere,the outlook for equities may be less vivid but is still generally bright:the outlook also explains why positives are still apparent for some European stocks despite relative domestic economic weakness,and the

26、 same is true for other regions.The market focus on stocks should not preclude interest in other asset classes in 2025.Corporate bonds in the U.S.,Asia and Europe,for example,are likely to remain interesting for investors for several reasons.These include institutional demand,still high yields and t

27、he return of the(term)premium.Supply and demand will remain fundamental to commodities such as oil and industrial metals but we also see other factors maintaining a relatively high price for gold in 2025.In alternative assets,we focus in this outlook on infrastructure central to investing in future

28、growth and what we call the public and private mixology of investing in this area.FX considerations will,as always,be a central consideration for investors and here 2025 will clearly be a case of strong economy,strong currency for the U.S.dollar.The euro will look weak in comparison,but rate rises a

29、nd growth could support the Japanese yen.2025 will not always be an easy year for investors as markets navigate through geopolitical or other risks(including the“three Rs”of recession,rates and rotations).But we believe that these risks are manageable.With markets already anticipating the impact of

30、future economic growth and development,this means that being and staying invested will be essential for portfolio success both in the short and long term.I hope you find the analysis in this annual outlook useful and we are,of course,always here to guide you through 2025 and beyond.Christian Nolting

31、Global CIO5PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and h

32、ypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary va

33、lue.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in

34、 time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Macro&strategy Staying the course in turbulent timesThe world is facing enormous geopolitical and economic challenges that will in all likelihood remain with us in 2025.They include not least the debate surrounding a possi

35、ble realignment of international trade relations which has again intensified following the Republican victory in Novembers U.S.election and brought uncertainty to the future development of highly trade-based economies.Overall,however,we expect increasingly dynamic economic growth in key regions of t

36、he world beyond 2025,especially in the U.S.,Asia and Europe,with a correspondingly positive impact on growth sectors.We expect the U.S.economy to continue growing robustly in 2025.Although the U.S.labour market has cooled,there is no sign of an imminent recession.The plans of U.S.President-elect Don

37、ald Trump,who will return to the White House in January 2025,include high levels of government investment,in the form of continuing existing spending programmes,deregulation and tax relief.Republican majorities in both chambers of the U.S.Congress mean that the Trump administration is likely to succ

38、eed in implementing a large proportion of its plans,which should gradually benefit the U.S.economy.After an increase of 2.0%in 2025,we expect U.S.economic growth to improve slightly to 2.2%in 2026.One key factor in the anticipated robust growth of the U.S.economy is its high level of technology-driv

39、en productivity.For example,labour productivity in the U.S.is currently U.S.:soft landing,robust growth,strong investment Europe:modest economic recovery and potential productivity growth through investment Asia:global growth driver not just China16PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa a

40、s well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past perfor

41、mance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead

42、to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced i

43、n December 2024.around 25%higher than in Europe.In the mid-1990s,the difference was only around 5%.In 2022,the Biden administration made additional funds totalling more than USD1tn available in the context of three major infrastructure packages.Many thousands of projects are still in their initial p

44、hase and some are likely to continue into the 2030s.In order to reduce the productivity gap and counteract the diverging growth trend,Europe should also invest in infrastructure,new technologies and their application across countries and sectors.Plans for this have already been proposed,for example,

45、by the former head of the European Central Bank(ECB)Mario Draghi.With the increasing implementation of artificial intelligence in a growing number of work processes,Europe could achieve a higher growth trajectory in the long term.For 2025,we expect GDP growth in the Eurozone to accelerate to 0.9%tha

46、nks to robust labour markets and rising real wages,which the ECB is likely to support with successive key interest rate cuts over the course of the year.One factor in the anticipated robust growth of the U.S.economy is its impressive level of technology-driven productivity,which is much higher than

47、in Europe.Asia gaining further prominenceIn 2025 Asia is set to build on its role as the engine of global growth.Chinas momentum is being curbed by the ongoing real estate crisis and uncertain income and employment prospects,structural problems such as an ageing society and local government debt.How

48、ever,we expect further government support measures for key technologies such as semiconductors and renewable energy and the continuing shift from a production-based economy towards greater consumer orientation.Global growth moderation ahead investment needed200020042008201220162020202420281086420-2-

49、4-6Source:LSEG Datastream,IMF,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.Global Advanced Economies Eurozone U.S.Emerging and developing economies GDP Growth(%),IMF-Forecasts 2024-2029 7PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing

50、 material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to

51、 a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the

52、investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Asia is expected to boast the highest growth mo

53、mentum worldwide with a positive impact on corporate profits as a result of strong nominal growth.Beijing is also likely to introduce support measures in an attempt to cushion the economic impact on domestic consumption of a possible escalation in the trade conflict with the U.S.However,it takes tim

54、e for fiscal stimuli to have an effect on the real economy,meaning that current and potential future measures may only start to have a growing effect in the second half of 2025.For 2025 as a whole,we therefore expect real GDP growth to be slightly weaker than in 2024 at 4.2%.Incidentally,China has a

55、lready significantly diversified its international trade policy in the years since Donald Trumps first presidency,making it less vulnerable to a possible increase in U.S.tariffs on Chinese imports.While exports to the U.S.still accounted for around 20%of Chinas total exports in 2017,this figure has

56、now fallen to just 13%.Instead a larger proportion of Chinese exports is going to India and Southeast Asia,further intensifying the trade links between the regions economies.The strategic integration of Southeast Asia is also gathering pace.In Malaysia,Indonesia,Thailand and Vietnam the BRICS+organi

57、sation has recently acquired no less than four new Southeast Asia partners.BRICS+nations combined share of global commodity supply amounts to 75%of manganese,72%of rare earths,and 50%of graphite,which enables the region to chart an independent course with its growth plans particularly in the area of

58、 sustainable growth.Within Asia,India is again likely to stand out in 2025 with expected GDP growth of 6.5%,topping the list of G20 countries.The worlds most populous nation benefits not only from its great innovative strength and a large pool of young and well-qualified workers but also from the st

59、ability of its political system.In addition,the impact of potentially higher U.S.tariffs is likely to be manageable.Exports to the U.S.account for only around 2%of the countrys economic output.In 2024,the strongest wage growth in Japan in more than 30 years boosted private consumption,laying the fou

60、ndations for a continued economic recovery.At the same time,it has brought back inflation good news for the country which has suffered from deflationary tendencies for decades.Japan should also benefit from its broad-based export economy which enables it to satisfy demand from Asias growth economies

61、 in areas such as mechanical engineering,chemicals and technology.We expect average GDP growth of 1.2%in Japan in 2025.8PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be

62、given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take int

63、o account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an

64、investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Politics&policy The future is fiscal2Over the past three years,even people who tend to pay little attention to th

65、e capital markets have been unable to avoid the subject of monetary policy.In response to the significant increase in price pressures worldwide,it was primarily the central banks that drove inflation back to their respective target values using interest rate and liquidity policies.This dominance of

66、monetary policy is now likely to weaken against the backdrop of more moderate inflation rates.For the Eurozone and Japan,we expect inflation to gradually move closer to the central banks target of 2%in 2025.To this end,the European Central Bank is likely to cut its deposit rate in five steps from th

67、e current 3.25%to 2.00%by the end of 2025.The Bank of Japan is charting a different course with its monetary policy normalisation and may gradually raise key interest rates from 0.25%to 1.00%.In the U.S.,we expect the disinflation process to come to a halt above the Feds target in light of robust de

68、mand and expansionary fiscal policy.Inflation could settle at a level of 2.4%in both 2025 and 2026,prompting the Fed to lower its key interest rate somewhat more cautiously in three steps of 0.25 percentage points each to between 3.75%and 4.00%by the end of 2025.In the future,fiscal policy is likely

69、 to become far more important to economic development.In the U.S.,for example,the provisional plans of the administration due to commence in January 2025 include extensive and predominantly debt-financed state investment.The Trump plan includes expanding tax relief for private households and compani

70、es,Shift from the dominance of monetary policy to fiscal policy U.S.and Japan with concrete plans for substantial investment Europe and China still on the sidelines acute need to catch up9PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketi

71、ng material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers

72、to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of th

73、e investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.strengthening the military and facilitating a

74、ccess to home loans.Total estimated borrowing for all measures until 2035 amounts to between USD7tn and USD16tn.This corresponds to an annual average of as much as 5%of current U.S.gross domestic product.In October,Japan also announced its plan for a new economic stimulus programme,albeit on a sligh

75、tly smaller scale.China,on the other hand,is likely to refrain from further fiscal measures until the concrete effects of the next U.S.administrations policies on the Chinese economy become clearer.Then,however,more substantial fiscal stimulus measures could be expected here as well.Europe is still

76、more on the sidelines in this field of tension.A core element of the NextGenerationEU recovery plan is the Recovery and Resilience Facility with a total volume of EUR650bn for the digital and energy transformation of the economy by 2026.However,these funds are unlikely to be sufficient to close the

77、innovation and productivity gap with the U.S.and the rest of the world.While the Draghi plan remains a vision for the future,it does make clear where the journey should lead.In order to close the innovation gap,European research and educational institutions need a strategy of excellence,among other

78、things.Increasing competitiveness is primarily dependent on a significant reduction in Europes energy prices and reducing dependencies in respect of commodities or key technologies,for example,requires a“genuine”EU economic policy.The additional investment volume proposed for this by the long-term D

79、raghi plan amounts to between EUR750bn and EUR800bn annually.We believe that such an investment offensive would enable Europe to keep pace and even regain some of the ground it has lost globally.It should then be possible for the Old World to again achieve more growth in the years ahead.Source:Deuts

80、che Bank AG;Data as of November 15,2024.1 Q4/Q4 growth 1.5%(2024),2.1%(2025).Economic growth2024 2025World 3.13.1U.S.1 2.72.0Eurozone 0.70.9Germany -0.10.6France 1.20.8Italy 0.40.5Spain 3.01.7Japan -0.11.2China 4.94.2ForecastGross domestic product(GDP)growth forecasts for selected economies(%).Sourc

81、e:IMF,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.*Forecast Fiscal deficit Debt/GDP201920202029*201920202029*Eurozone-0.6%-7,0%-2.7%89%97%84%201920202029*201920202029*U.S.-5.8%-13.9%-6.0%132%132%108%201920202029*201920202029*Germany1.3%-4.4%-0.5%58%68%59%Government deficit-related indicators rising2

82、01920202029*201920202029*China-6.1%-9.7%-8.2%111%70%60%An investment offensive in Europe could serve as a basis for the region to regain the ground it believes it has lost globally.10PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing ma

83、terial,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a

84、nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the inv

85、estment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Bonds The return of the premiumFor a long time,inv

86、estors on the U.S.bond market operated in a rather unusual environment where the interest rates for long-term bonds were lower than those for short-term securities.They were therefore not rewarded for the additional risk of a long-term investment in other words,they received no premium.However,this

87、inverted yield curve has recently disappeared in the wake of slightly higher inflation expectations in the U.S.We expect this normalisation to continue,not least because the U.S.Federal Reserve will limit its monetary easing activities to three further key interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 and s

88、upportive fiscal policy measures could drive up the term premium.In addition,the bond markets are likely to remain highly volatile and investors want to be compensated for the corresponding volatility risks.At the end of 2025,we expect yields of 4.50%for ten-year U.S.government bonds and 4.20%for tw

89、o-year U.S.government bonds.The overall picture in the Eurozone is somewhat different than in the U.S.The economic outlook is weaker,inflation expectations are lower and the ECB is therefore likely to make larger cuts to its key interest rates by the end of 2025 than the Fed.Our forecasts for German

90、 government bonds are correspondingly lower.We expect 2.20%for ten-year Bunds and 1.75%for two-year Bunds by the end of 2025.We believe that the market for corporate bonds in the U.S.and Europe will remain fundamentally interesting for investors in 2025 because demand from institutional investors su

91、ch as pension funds and insurance companies is also likely to remain high.This is mainly due to the comparatively high yields that should remain available for high-quality investment grade(IG)securities.The focus could be on bonds from the financial sector,3 Treasuries and Bunds are expected to rema

92、in relatively stable Investment grade securities are likely to benefit from persistently high interest rates The investment risk does not appear to be adequately reflected in high-yield bondsThe curve back to“normal”without recessionSource:LSEG Datastream,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.

93、Dec.19Dec.20Dec.21Dec.22Dec.23Dec.24250200150100500-50-100-150 U.S.10Y Bond Yield-U.S.2Y Bond Yield*U.S.30Y Bond Yield-U.S.2Y Bond Yield*Basis points11PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case

94、in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gai

95、ns/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments

96、come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.such as banks.In contrast to previous years,they offer a similarly high yield to s

97、ecurities from the non-financial sector and generally have good profit prospects.In the U.S.,there could be a certain amount of only moderate,upwards pressure on spreads in 2025,which would probably not be large enough to significantly dampen the total return potential of the U.S.securities that hav

98、e already been issued.This would be due to higher economic growth momentum in the U.S.possibly driving inflation and the already historically low spreads on government bonds that leave little room for further narrowing,favouring a slight widening instead.For investors who want to keep a certain prop

99、ortion of their portfolio in U.S.dollars,U.S.IG securities appear to be worth a closer look.IG bonds with variable coupons,known as floaters,deserve consideration in a rising interest rate environment.These floaters available in both euro and U.S.dollar variants usually comprise a large proportion o

100、f securities from the financial sector and should also be interesting from a yield perspective in 2025.Due to high demand,the spreads on high-yield(HY)bonds have also narrowed significantly,despite a sizeable supply.In our view,however,the yield spreads no longer adequately reflect the actual invest

101、ment risk,especially because the default rates in the U.S.(around 3%)and the Eurozone(close to 4%)are at relatively high levels.We therefore expect spreads to widen by the end of 2025.For 2025,we remain cautious regarding corporate bonds from emerging markets.The current tight spreads offer very lit

102、tle buffer against risks from a protectionist global trade environment,potentially higher U.S.interest rates and a stronger U.S.dollar.Interest rates for high-quality investment grade corporate bonds to remain relatively attractive in 2025.Inflation2024 2025U.S.2.92.4Eurozone 2.32.0Germany 2.52.3Jap

103、an 2.52.0China 0.51.3ForecastConsumer price inflation forecasts for selected economies compared to the previous year(%).Source:Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of November 15,2024.12PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,bu

104、t this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal v

105、alue based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment i

106、s positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Dollar Strong economy,strong currency The euro/U.S.dollar e

107、xchange rate registered sharp movements in the course of 2024.After reaching a high for the year of 1.12 in August,the euro fell to EUR/USD 1.09 by election day in the U.S.on November 5 and then continued its downwards trend.At 1.04,the currency pair reached its lowest level in 13 months in mid-Nove

108、mber.Reasons for the new strength of the U.S.dollar include the tax cuts and additional tariffs announced by U.S.President-elect Donald Trump,which could lead to a sustained rise in inflation in the U.S.in the longer term.In response,market participants priced out a number of further interest rate c

109、uts by the Fed that had previously been expected.Should the pace of interest rate reductions in the U.S.slow,this would result in a wider interest rate differential between the U.S.and the Eurozone and thus increase the attractiveness of the U.S.dollar.In addition,as a result of the planned fiscal s

110、timulus measures,the U.S.economy is likely to grow significantly faster than its Eurozone counterpart in 2025.Against this backdrop,we expect a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.02 by the end of 2025,subject to any interim volatility.Due to the comparatively cautious interest rate reduction policy of the B

111、ank of England(BoE),the GBP was strong against the USD until the autumn but has lost some of this strength since the start of October.We expect sterling to trade sideways with moderate 4 Interest rate differential and solid economic growth support the greenback JPY could appreciate further in 2025 a

112、lso against the USD EUR and CNY under pressure due to possible U.S.punitive tariffs 13PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target

113、can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will

114、 have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as ris

115、e and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.volatility against the USD in 2025.The inflation rate is likely to rise again at the start of 2025 due to the adjustment of the government energy p

116、rice cap.Nevertheless,the Bank of England is likely to cautiously continue its cycle of interest rate cuts in support of the economic recovery.In June/July 2024,partly as a result of the hesitant interest rate hiking of the Bank of Japan(BoJ)in recent years compared with that of the Fed or the ECB,t

117、he JPY traded at its lowest level against both the USD and the EUR since the mid-1980s and early 1990s.However,supported by a key interest rate hike by the BoJ in July and the emerging recovery of the Japanese economy,it then quickly regained ground.As we expect the BoJ to gradually raise its key po

118、licy rate further to 1%in the coming year,this could additionally strengthen the yen,as could the solid Japanese economic growth of 1.2%that we expect in 2025.We therefore forecast a USD/JPY rate of 145 at the end of 2025.The renminbi recently depreciated moderately because the financial markets wer

119、e disappointed with the scope of the monetary and fiscal policy measures announced by the Chinese government to support the economy.The Peoples Bank of China could devalue the renminbi further in 2025 to strengthen the Chinese economy.However,the central bank is likely to ensure that devaluation pre

120、ssures do not become too strong to avoid further fuelling the existing trade conflict with the U.S.We therefore forecast a USD/CNY rate of 7.45 at the end of 2025.If the tariffs announced by U.S.President-elect Donald Trump exert noticeable pressure on exchange rates in 2025,the overall economic dam

121、age they might cause to the affected economic areas namely China and the Eurozone may be reduced to some extent by their weaker currencies providing a degree of export stimulus.Possible U.S.tariffs could exert pressure on the currencies of affected trading areas.FXForecastForecasts for exchange rate

122、s of major international currencies for end-2025.EUR vs.USD 1.02USD vs.JPY 145EUR vs.JPY 148EUR vs.CHF 0.94EUR vs.GBP 0.82GBP vs.USD1.25USD vs.CNY7.45Source:Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of November 15,2024.U.S.economy is performing,yields on the riseSource:LSEG Datastream,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of Dec

123、ember 3,2024.1007550250-25-50 Citi economic surprise index U.S.(lhs)U.S.10Y treasury yield(rhs)5.04.54.03.53.0Dec.22Jun.23Dec.23Jun.24Dec.2414PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.

124、S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses

125、 and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with

126、 risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Stocks The key to successStrong corporate profits,the reduced probability of recession and

127、key interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB have had a positive impact on general investor sentiment in recent months.The major U.S.growth stocks,which briefly came under pressure mid-year,subsequently returned to a clearly positive trajectory.We kept our emphasis on growth within a broad-based po

128、rtfolio throughout the period and this proved to be the right decision.We will continue to focus on growth in 2025 and beyond.In an environment of lower inflation than in the preceding years,we expect further easing from major Western central banks while economic growth should remain supportive a co

129、mbination that has proved to provide positive support for share prices in the past.A similar environment existed between 1994 5and 1997,for example,when the S&P 500 increased by a total of 127%.By contrast,if we look at the S&P 500 since 2021,the increase in value was just 26%up to November 2024.Eve

130、n if past developments do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about the future developments,we still see further potential for higher share prices in the current market environment.We remain convinced that equities can provide investors with potential access to growth.At the corporate level,we exp

131、ect profits in 2025 to grow at a solid pace 14%in the U.S.,12%in Germany,10%in Japan and 8%in Europe.In emerging markets,we remain positive on Asia given the expectation of aggregate double-digit growth in earnings per share.Although the Indian stock market currently seems expensive,we see the count

132、ry as the next major growth market.Price reductions there could serve as buying opportunities.In addition,Focus on growth stocks within a broad-based portfolio Solid profit growth for companies worldwide Persistently high volatility due to a range of uncertaintiesStock markets Room to runSource:LSEG

133、 Datastream,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.193519411947195319591965197119771983198919952001200720132019400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 24 M132%22 M114%7 M62%50 M158%87 M267%50 M86%44 M80%26 M48%32 M74%24 M73%35 M62%115 M417%32 M65%61 M229%26 M69%61 M101%133 M401%7 M27%S&P 500 bull mark

134、ets since 1935(price returns),M=monthsWe are convinced that equities can provide investors with potential access to growth.15PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance ca

135、n be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not tak

136、e into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value o

137、f an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.tech companies from North Asia are providing interesting opportunities to invest in artificial intelligence.

138、However,despite the generally positive underlying sentiment,caution is also required on the global equity markets especially in view of the uncertainties regarding possible new tariffs,particularly on the part of the U.S.,and their impact on international trade relations.Moreover,European policies a

139、nd their impact on the fiscal policy of the major member states in particular are likely to influence stock market developments in Europe.Overall,equity markets are therefore expected to remain highly volatile in the coming year.Another frequently discussed risk factor for equity markets is rising y

140、ields a scenario that could well materialise intermittently in the U.S.in 2025.In principle,high interest rates make equity investments less attractive than fixed-income investments.However,rising interest rates are not automatically a problem for equities.Provided the increase in interest rates is

141、gradual and growth-driven,we do not see any major downside risk for equity markets.The equity market could only come under pressure if long-term expected U.S.capital market rates increase too sharply to 5%and above.We expect yields in the U.S.to remain elevated in the coming year alongside higher vo

142、latility,so we recommend positioning a portfolio solidly for all market situations by way of dynamic asset allocation and active risk management.16PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in t

143、he U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/l

144、osses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come

145、 with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.U.S.stocks Centre of gravity6Within a generally supportive equity market environment,t

146、he expectations for the U.S.equity market are positive for 2025 as well.This is mainly due to a number of peculiarities in the(economic)policy landscape on the other side of the Atlantic,where the measures expected as a result of the change in government in January 2025 are driving the long-term exp

147、ectations of market participants.These include greater deregulation of the economy,extensive government investment and additional tax relief.In this growth-friendly environment,the profits of U.S.companies should increase signifi cantly.We expect the earnings of S&P 500 companies to grow by 14%.An a

148、dditional boost to share prices is anticipated from large-scale share buybacks when companies repurchase some of their own shares.Such moves are an expression of the strong focus of major U.S.companies in particular on the interests of shareholders and a signal to market participants that the compan

149、ies are doing well financially.As a result,they reduce the number of shares in circulation,which has a direct and positive impact on the key share indicator of“earnings per share”(EPS)and thus usually also on share prices.According to our forecasts,the buyback volume in the U.S.is likely to amount t

150、o around USD950bn in 2025,corresponding to around half of total corporate profits.Our long-term focus for U.S.equities remains on financials and those sectors that are likely to benefit from a growth-enhancing environment,such as IT,consumer discretionary and communication services.Taken together,th

151、e latter account for around 50%of the market capitalisation of the U.S.equity market.However,despite the favourable signs,we do not U.S.equities benefiting from the special(economic)policy situation in the U.S.Rising corporate profits and large-scale share buybacks as drivers Focus still on financia

152、ls,IT,consumer discretionary and communication servicesOur long-term focus remains on financials and sectors that are likely to benefit from a growth-enhancing environment,such as IT,consumer discretionary and communication services.17PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in A

153、sia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not i

154、ndicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss

155、 in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 202

156、4.consider an excessive focus on growth stocks to be advisable from a risk perspective.Instead,they could form the core of a broad-based equity portfolio that also includes interesting reasonably priced defensive U.S.growth stocks and small caps as well as stocks and securities from other promising

157、regions such as Europe and Asia.Both current market indicators and historical data show that the upward trend on the U.S.stock market may not end for some time yet.Compared with past periods of rising share prices,the current U.S.bull market is still relatively young at just over two years.In the pa

158、st 90 years,the average U.S.bull market has lasted 47 months,during which the S&P 500 rose by an average of 137%in U.S.dollar terms(see chart on page 14).By contrast,the current increase is just 69%.Although this comparison is no guarantee of rising prices in the future,it at least makes clear that

159、some investors concerns about the already good performance soon leading to a crash are not necessarily justified.In fact,as the past has shown,good stock market years occur far more frequently than bad ones.Since 1928,the S&P 500 has seen a total of 71 good years with an average increase in total re

160、turn of 21%compared with 26 bad years,which had an average decrease of 13.5%.We expect another good year for the U.S.stock market in 2025 although we are monitoring potential disruptive factors such as excessively high yields.Our expectation for the S&P 500 is 6,500 points at the end of 2025.Source:

161、Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of November 15,2024.Equity indexUnited States(S&P 500)6,500Germany (DAX)20,500Eurozone (EURO STOXX 50)4,950Europe (STOXX Europe 600)525Japan (MSCI Japan)1,770Switzerland (SMI)12,050United Kingdom (FTSE 100)8,150Emerging Markets (MSCI EM)1,150Asia ex Japan (MSCI Asia ex Japan

162、)750Australia (MSCI Australia)1,650ForecastForecasts for price levels of major equity indices for end-2025(index points).*S&P 500 total return.Source:LSEG Datastream,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.08.11.201626.01.2018 08.11.201608.12.2016 FinancialsITCons.Discr.MaterialsIndustrialsS&P 5

163、00HealthcareEnergyCons.StaplesComm.Serv.Real estateUtilities-2.7%-3.4%-0.5%54.3%18.6%53.0%1.3%41.2%6.7%39.0%9.1%38.5%37.6%9.2%5.2%37.0%16.0%9.4%15.8%13.4%8.1%10.5%1.0%8.4%Cons.Discr.FinancialsComm.Serv.S&P 500IndustrialsITEnergyCons.StaplesUtilitiesMaterialsReal estateHealthcare10.7%8.1%5.8%4.8%4.3%

164、4.3%3.2%4.1%2.7%0.7%0.6%-0.7%U.S.post election rally 20162018*05.11.202403.12.2024 18PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target c

165、an be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will

166、have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise

167、 and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.European stocks Positives still apparentWhen looking at Germanys current economic and business situation,some market participants are currently draw

168、ing parallels with one of the countrys literary classics.In his novel“Buddenbrooks”,Thomas Mann describes a family which allows its company to fall into decline over the generations because of a lack of drive and willingness to innovate.However,the fact that Thomas Mann was awarded the Nobel Prize f

169、or Literature in 1929 for this novel in particular does not make this admittedly plausible picture any less incongruous at least as far as companies are concerned because the world has changed since the time of the Buddenbrooks.Unlike them,many German companies today are innovative,world market lead

170、ers in a number of areas and part of a global network and therefore no longer actually“German”companies but global enterprises that generate a large proportion of their sales and profits in other countries.Therefore,the paradox of successful companies in a stagnating economy that has often been disc

171、ussed recently in connection with Germany is not a paradox at all.This becomes particularly clear when considering the DAX.While industrial production in Germany has fallen markedly over the past ten years largely due to the countrys declining automotive production Germanys leading index has more th

172、an doubled in value.The situation is similar in Europe overall and on the pan-European STOXX Europe 600.The question that needs to be asked,therefore,is how Germany and the rest of Europe can 7 Strong international German companies despite domestic economic weakness Potential for European equities a

173、lbeit lower than for U.S.stocks Focus on financials and industrialsMany Germancompanies are nowglobal enterprisesgenerating much of their sales andprofits in othercountries.19PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,b

174、ut this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal

175、value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment

176、is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.maintain and boost their economic dynamism.In our opinion,

177、considerably more investment especially is now needed to boost productivity.There are plans for such a growth offensive,for example those proposed by Mario Draghi,the former head of the European Central Bank.However,they are still awaiting implementation.Investors should monitor both sides of the Ge

178、rman and European stock markets:the strength of many companies on the one hand and the macroeconomic and political challenges on the other.Overall,the STOXX Europe 600 is trailing the U.S.market in terms of corporate earnings growth.In particular,economic concerns in China,the weakness of the automo

179、tive sector and political uncertainties particularly in France and Germany are having a negative impact on performance.The valuation discount of the pan-European lead index compared with the S&P 500,for example,is now around 40%.In 2025,we expect high-single-digit earnings growth in Europe which,cou

180、pled with low valuations,should provide moderate return prospects.Financials and industrials stand out favourably as our sector picks.We expect the STOXX Europe 600 to reach 525 points by the end of 2025 and see the DAX at 20,500 points.Germany Not growing and de-industrialising Source:LSEG Datastre

181、am,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.Dec.14Dec.15Dec.16Dec.17Dec.18Dec.19Dec.20Dec.21Dec.22Dec.23Dec.242151951751551351159575 DAX(indexed:Nov.2014=100)Germany Industrial production(indexed:Nov.2014=100)20PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this mate

182、rial is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future r

183、eturns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the

184、 nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Commodities Off to

185、new shores The point at which global demand for crude oil will stop growing has been the subject of heated debate on the commodities markets for decades.According to a report by the International Energy Agency(IEA),it could happen around 2030.Other estimates put the peak oil date somewhat later.What

186、 does seem certain is that oil will remain an important commodity for a long time to come but that its importance will decline steadily due to the expansion of renewable energy.In the past 20 years alone,the share of non-fossil forms of energy in global electricity production has risen from less tha

187、n 20%to around 30%.However,the oil market has come under pressure in recent months,primarily due to the weakness of Chinas economy.While the Middle Kingdom still accounted for 70%of the growth in global oil demand in 2023,this figure is expected to fall to just 20%in 2024.At the same time,oil-produc

188、ing countries that are not members of OPEC+,in particular the U.S.,are increasing supply.8We assume that oil market supply and demand will be roughly balanced in 2025.By the end of 2025,we expect the price of Brent crude to be slightly lower at USD69/bbl.On the one hand,the OPEC+countries have annou

189、nced that they will not continue their voluntary production cuts that have been in place since spring 2023 and will instead gradually increase production.In addition,it appears that the next U.S.administration will want to expand the countrys oil production further.On the other hand,the OPEC+countri

190、es would be likely to respond to an excessive drop in the oil price,for example,by again postponing the reversal of production cuts.Moreover,a possible stabilisation of economic growth in China could have a positive effect on prices.Overall,there are still a large number of Supply and demand on the

191、oil market balanced little price potential Gold likely to remain in demand as a hedging instrument in 2025 Copper on the upturn in the long term thanks to the energy transition and digitalisation21PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considere

192、d marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performanc

193、e refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performa

194、nce of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.uncertainties regarding the oil pric

195、e.These include the future U.S.administrations trade policy and geopolitical risks,for example with regard to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz,which serves as a transport route for around one-fifth of global oil demand.Industrial metals are essential for both the global energy transition and the digita

196、l transformation.For example,25 to 35 tonnes of copper are needed to supply just a small data centre with electricity.According to estimates,demand for copper could increase by 50%by 2040 if the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario is implemented.During 2024,the price of copper rose by around 7.5%through

197、 to mid-November despite weakening demand from the ailing Chinese construction sector.If China,as the worlds largest buyer of copper and with its massive investments in renewable energy and power grids,overcomes its economic weakness,this could additionally drive copper demand in the medium term.On

198、the supply side,no significant increase in copper production is expected in the short term.In fact,supply might decrease due to declining ore quality.Chile,which accounts for around one quarter of global copper production,increased its output by 3%year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024.Howeve

199、r,this is still well below the production volumes of previous years.We expect the price of copper to be USD9,850/t at the end of 2025.The price of gold reached an all-time high of USD2,790/oz on October 31 and increased by more than 25%year on year driven by its function as a“safe haven”in the run-u

200、p to the U.S.election.The precious metal is likely to remain in demand in 2025 as well,despite the relatively high capital market rates that are expected and the strong U.S.dollar.The reason for this is the strong demand for physical gold,for example from central banks.In addition,the precious metal

201、 should be able to demonstrate its importance as a risk-hedging component in a portfolio,especially at a time of great uncertainty.We expect the price of gold to fluctuate at around USD2,800/oz by the end of 2025.Source:Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of November 15,2024.Commodity pricesGold(USD/oz)2,800Oi

202、l(Brent Spot,USD/bbl)69Copper(USD/metric ton)9,850ForecastForecasts for gold,oil and copper prices for end-2025.Both the global energy transition and the digital transformation are driving demand for industrial metals in the long term.Alternative energy Clearly on the riseSource:LSEG Datastream,Deut

203、sche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.0405060708091011121314151617181920212223312927252321191715 Share of global electricity from renewables(%)22PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in t

204、he U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/l

205、osses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come

206、 with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Alternatives Public&private mixology9 Infrastructure:new foundations for the future Da

207、ta centres and logistics:Commercial real estate for the transition Private equity:interesting sector weightings outside the stock marketAlternative investments can make a contribution to diversifying a portfolio comprised of publicly listed assets such as stocks and bonds.They are both exchange-trad

208、ed and non-exchange-traded securities,which is reflected in particular in their differing liquidities and minimum holding periods.In 2025,there should also be interesting opportunities for private investors in the areas of infrastructure,private equity and,to a certain extent,real estate.Infrastruct

209、ure investments are usually focused on basic services and facilities in sectors such as energy,transport and utilities.They are associated with long-term,recurring and foreseeable payment streams that are inflation-adjusted for some facilities,making their yield characteristics less dependent on the

210、 prevailing economy.In terms of growth prospects,we believe that the focus in 2025 will be on areas such as telecommunications(mobile phone masts in the U.S.,data centres)and electricity(power grids and storage facilities,generators for renewable energy).This is because the transformation and securi

211、ty of the energy supply with a strong focus on renewable energy,increasing digitalisation and the restructuring of supply chains including reshoring and nearshoring activities to strengthen resilience require the development and expansion of infrastructure such as solar parks and wind farms,power an

212、d data grids,motorways,electric vehicle charging stations,hydrogen infrastructure,battery production and railway lines.Source:IW Kln,IMK Hans-Bckler-Stiftung,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.Estimated public investment needs in Germany 200DecarbonisationRegional infrastructure Expansion o

213、f railway systemFederal roadsHomebuildingRefurbishment of universitiesExpansion of public transportClimate adaptationExpansion of full-time schooling177.259.53936.834.728.513.26.7 EUR bn,over 10 years(2024 prices)Private markets Correcting for public market biasesPublic companies14%Private companies

214、86%Companies with morethan USD250m in revenuesRepresents the share of companies in North America,Europe and Asia.Source:Blackstone,Capital IQ;Data as of November 2023.23PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but thi

215、s is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value

216、based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is pos

217、itive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Advances in fields such as artificial intelligence and e-commerc

218、e are also driving demand for data centre and logistics capacities in the real estate sector.In addition to national and regional government programmes,the use of private capital is playing a growing role.In the commercial real estate sector,investors may focus on the logistics segment,which should

219、benefit from continued growth in online retailing.Properties in sectors such as self-storage(rental storage),research and healthcare and data centres also appear interesting in the long term.Structural trends such as increasing urbanisation,rising healthcare expenditures and the use of artificial in

220、telligence are likely to bolster demand in the future.Private equity investments provide opportunities to diversify the portfolio.Worldwide,86%of companies with an annual turnover of more than USD250m are not listed on a stock exchange.In our opinion,these companies offer access to an interesting se

221、ctor weighting that differs significantly from that of listed companies.Risk-conscious investors should focus on strategies that promote organically growing companies,whereas growth-oriented investors could also consider venture capital investments in promising start-ups.Structural trends are impact

222、ing the real estate sector,with logistics one of several possible gainers.24PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be ach

223、ieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a ne

224、gative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you

225、might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Risk Recessions,rates&rotationsEven before Donald Trump takes office as the 47th President of the United States on January 20,2025,heads of government,busine

226、ss leaders and market participants around the world will be unlikely to take their eyes off the White House for quite some time.During the election campaign,Trump had already announced trade policy measures in the form of additional tariffs on Chinese and European imports,for example,which could sev

227、erely disrupt global trade relations.Resurgent inflation in the U.S.would also have a negative impact on capital markets.If the Fed does not respond appropriately,this could result in a sharp rise in capital market rates.And lastly,a recession in the U.S.and in other major economic zones is not enti

228、rely inconceiva ble,although we do not expect one in the years ahead.In 2025,there are likely to be a number of geopolitical risks in addition to these economic policy risk areas,which can be supplemented as necessary if looking beyond the U.S.keywords here being the Chinese real estate market or th

229、e upheaval in the global automotive industry.These risks include a possible blockade by Iran of the key oil transport route through the Strait of Hormuz,the war in the Middle East and developments in connection with the war between Russia and Ukraine.10 Investors must be prepared for a range of trad

230、e and geopolitical risks Fundamentally positive growth expectations should be kept in sight A broad-based portfolio and active risk management are advisable25PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not th

231、e case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on pr

232、ice gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Inves

233、tments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Sector rotation is a risk of the stock markets own making.In the summer of

234、2024,for example,investors sold off large numbers of shares in the fastest-growing US companies or a combination of different reasons including company valuations,profit-taking and the prospect of falling capital market rates and invested increasingly in second-tier stocks instead.Investors who had

235、completed this rotation then faced challenges because demand for growth stocks resumed following a market correction.We are not ruling out the possibility that such rotations could also occur in 2025.On the bond market,by contrast,we expect continued high volatility against the backdrop of potential

236、ly higher U.S.capital market rates and a stronger U.S.dollar.In cognisance of these challenges,investors should not lose sight of the underlying growth trend at the macroeconomic and corporate levels in 2025.In our view,equities are the key to success.Rather than standing on the sidelines and accept

237、ing real capital losses due to increased inflation rates,it is important to diversify capital sensibly and actively manage market risks.On the stock market,one option could be a barbell strategy in which capital is invested in different market segments.In the case of bonds,it is primarily a question

238、 of managing maturities and credit ratings.Lastly,the currency portfolio should also be broad based and not just include the domestic currency,for example by investing in the capital markets of other currency areas.Alternative investments can also be added for diversification.Gold can be included du

239、e to its hedging characteristics with regards to the risks mentioned above.The fact that gold has delivered a significant return despite rising U.S.real yields which are generally negative correlated with gold prices highlights its effectiveness in such an environment.Investors should not lose sight

240、 of underlying growth trends at the macroeconomic and corporate levels in 2025.Gold Higher despite rising real yieldsSource:LSEG Datastream,Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of December 3,2024.3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000 Gold(USD/oz,lhs)U.S.10Y real yield(inverted,rhs)-3-2-10123Dec.14Dec.15Dec.16Dec.17Dec.

241、18Dec.19Dec.20Dec.21Dec.22Dec.23Dec.2426PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumpt

242、ions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing powe

243、r of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount origin

244、ally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.*Bloomberg consensus.1 For the U.S.,GDP growth Q4/Q4 is 1.5%in 2024 and 2.1%in 2025.2 Urban unemployment rate(end of period),not comparable to consensus data.3 China fiscal deficit refers to au

245、gmented fiscal balance(widest definition)from IMF.It is not comparable with the consensus.Source:Deutsche Bank AG,Bloomberg Finance L.P.Data as of November 15,2024.AppendixMacroeconomic forecasts 2024 2025Consensus 2025(BBG*)GDP growth rate(%)U.S.1 2.72.01.9Eurozone0.70.91.2Germany-0.10.60.8France1.

246、20.81.0Italy 0.40.51.0Spain3.01.72.1Japan-0.11.21.2China4.94.24.5World3.13.13.1Consumer price inflation(%)U.S.2.92.42.3Eurozone2.32.02.0Germany2.52.32.1Japan2.52.02.0China0.51.31.3Unemployment rate(%)U.S.4.14.24.3Eurozone6.46.36.5Germany6.06.16.1Japan2.52.42.5China25.15.05.1Fiscal balance(%of GDP)U.

247、S.-6.6-7.3-6.5Eurozone-2.8-3.0-2.7Germany-2.1-1.8-1.5Japan-6.0-4.0-3.5China3-13.2-13.1-5.027PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or t

248、arget can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflatio

249、n will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well

250、as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.AppendixAsset class forecasts for December 2025Sovereign bond yields(%)United States(2-year U.S.Treasury)4.20United States(10-year U.S.Treasu

251、ry)4.50United States(30-year U.S.Treasury)4.65Germany(2-year German Bund)1.75Germany(10-year German Bund)2.20Germany(30-year German Bund)2.50United Kingdom(10-year UK Government)4.00Japan(2-year Japan Government)0.80Japan(10-year Japan Government)1.40Benchmark rates(%)United States(federal funds rat

252、e)3.75-4.00Eurozone(deposit rate)2.00United Kingdom(repo rate)3.00Japan(policy rate)1.00China(1-year lending rate)2.75CurrenciesEUR vs.USD 1.02USD vs.JPY 145EUR vs.JPY 148EUR vs.CHF0.94EUR vs.GBP0.82GBP vs.USD 1.25USD vs.CNY7.45Equity indices United States(S&P 500)6,500Germany(DAX)20,500Eurozone(EUR

253、O STOXX 50)4,950Europe(STOXX Europe 600)525Japan(MSCI Japan)1,770Switzerland(SMI)12,050United Kingdom(FTSE 100)8,150Emerging Markets(MSCI EM)1,150Asia ex Japan(MSCI Asia ex Japan)750Australia(MSCI Australia)1,650Commodities(USD)Gold(oz)2,800Crude Oil(Brent Spot,bbl)69Copper(t)9,850EU Carbon Allowanc

254、es(Carbon Spot,t)75Corporate&EM bond spreads(bps)EUR IG Corp95EUR HY400USD IG Corp85USD HY325Asia Credit125EM Sovereign390Source:Deutsche Bank AG;Data as of November 15,2024.28PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,

255、but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal

256、 value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment

257、 is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.AppendixHistorical performance09.12.2019 09.12.202009.12.

258、2020 09.12.202109.12.2021 09.12.202209.12.2022 09.12.202309.12.2023 09.12.2024PerformanceS&P 50017.1%27.1%-15.7%17.0%31.5%STOXX Europe 600-2.8%20.8%-7.9%7.5%10.4%MSCI EM19.5%-0.6%-21.6%-0.3%14.3%EURO STOXX 50-3.9%19.2%-6.3%14.7%10.2%SMI0.0%20.9%-12.2%0.0%6.2%DAX1.8%17.2%-8.1%16.6%21.4%FTSE 100-9.3%1

259、1.5%2.1%1.0%10.6%MSCI Japan4.8%13.0%-2.3%18.5%18.3%MSCI Australia-2.4%8.9%-0.5%0.9%17.2%MSCI Asia ex Japan22.7%-1.2%-18.6%-3.5%18.1%2-year U.S.Treasury3.1%-0.4%-3.4%2.9%5.1%10-year U.S.Treasury11.4%-2.4%-15.1%-1.5%4.3%30-year U.S.Treasury18.8%-2.7%-29.8%-8.7%2.8%2-year German Bund-0.5%-0.8%-3.7%1.6%

260、3.0%10-year German Bund3.2%-1.9%-17.7%-0.1%2.3%30-year German Bund11.8%-3.3%-38.3%-17.7%2.3%10-year UK Government 5.7%-3.4%-18.8%-2.0%3.2%2-year Japan Government-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.7%10-year Japan Government 0.0%0.1%-1.2%-1.6%-1.4%EUR vs.USD-1.6%2.2%-6.6%-6.6%8.8%USD vs.JPY3.3%6.2%20.3%9.0%-4.2%EU

261、R vs.JPY1.7%8.5%12.3%1.8%4.3%EUR vs.CHF-1.9%-4.1%-5.5%-3.3%-1.5%EUR vs.GBP-3.5%-0.2%0.6%-6.9%8.6%GBP vs.USD1.9%2.3%-7.2%0.4%0.2%USD vs.CNY1.2%2.8%9.3%-2.7%-7.0%Gold(oz)26.4%-3.7%1.1%11.4%33.1%Crude Oil(Brent Spot,bbl)-24.0%52.3%2.3%-0.3%-4.9%Crude Oil(WTI,bbl)-22.9%55.8%0.1%0.3%-4.0%Copper(t)27.4%23

262、.8%-10.8%-1.7%9.0%Source:Deutsche Bank AG,Bloomberg Finance L.P.,LSEG Datastream;Data as of December 9,2024.29PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that

263、 any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account

264、inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment

265、 can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.GlossaryArtificial intelligence(AI)in computer science refers to computer programs and algorithms that are able to replicat

266、e human skills such as learning,problem solving or decision-making.The Bank of England(BoE)is the central bank of Great Britain.The Bank of Japan(BoJ)is the central bank of Japan.Brent is a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing.Bunds are federal bonds,i.e.German government bonds.CHF

267、is the currency code for the Swiss Franc.CNY,also known as Renminbi(RMB)is the currency code for the Chinese yuan.Congress is the legislature of the United States,consisting of two chambers,the Senate and the House of Representatives.The consumer price index(CPI)measures the price of a basket of pro

268、ducts and services that is based on the typical consumption of a private household.The DAX is a blue-chip stock-market index consisting of the 40 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange;other DAX indices include a wider range of firms.Democrats is the abbreviation for the Demo

269、cratic Party in the United States,one of the two main parties.A developed market(DM)is a country that is advanced economically,with developed capital markets and high levels of per capita income.Earnings per share(EPS)are calculated as a companies net income minus dividends of preferred stock all di

270、vided by the total number of shares outstanding.An emerging market(EM)is a country that has some characteristics of a developed market in terms of market efficiency,liquidity and other factors,but does not meet all developed market criteria.EUR is the currency code for the euro,the currency of the E

271、urozone.The European Central Bank(ECB)is the central bank for the Eurozone.The EURO STOXX 50 Index tracks the performance of blue-chip stocks in the Eurozone and includes the super-sector leaders in terms of market capitalization.The Eurozone is formed of 20 European Union member states that have ad

272、opted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender.The Fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend overnight to other depository institutions.The Federal Reserve(Fed)is the central bank of the United States.Its Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)meets to dete

273、rmine interest rate policy.Floating rate bonds(floaters),in contrast to conventional bonds,do not have a fixed coupon over the term.The coupon is reviewed periodically and adjusted in line with the evolution of a reference interest rate.The FTSE 100 Index tracks the performance of the 100 major comp

274、anies trading on the London Stock Exchange.GBP is the currency code for the British pound/sterling.Gross domestic product(GDP)is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a countrys borders in a specific time period.High yield(HY)bonds are higher-yielding bonds with a

275、 lower credit rating than investment-grade corporate bonds,Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.30PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast

276、or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Infl

277、ation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as w

278、ell as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.The International Energy Agency(IEA)is an intergovernmental agency studying energy-related issues.An investment grade(IG)rating by a rati

279、ng agency such as Standard&Poors indicates that a bond is seen as having a relatively low risk of default.JPY is the currency code for the Japanese yen,the Japanese currency.The MSCI Asia ex Japan Index captures large-and mid-cap representation across 2 of 3 developed-market countries(excluding Japa

280、n)and 8 emerging-market countries in Asia.The MSCI Australia Index tracks the performance of large-and mid-cap stocks in Australia.The MSCI EM Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 emerging markets countries.The MSCI Japan Index measures the performance of around 320 large and mi

281、d-cap stocks drawn accounting for about 85%of Japanese market capitalization.The Nasdaq 100 Index is a collection of the 100 largest,most actively traded companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.The NextGenerationEU(NGEU)fund is a European Union recovery package to support member states hit by

282、the COVID-19 pandemic.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)is an international organization with the mandate to“coordinate and unify the petroleum policies”of its 12 members.The so-called OPEC+brings in Russia and other producers.The Peoples Bank of China(PBoC)is the central ba

283、nk of the Peoples Republic of China.Productivity refers to the ratio of goods or services produced to the means of production used.Republican is the abbreviation for“Republican Party”,one of the two main parties in the United States.The Senate is the smaller house in the bicameral Congress of the Un

284、ited States with a more advisory role.The S&P 500 Index includes 500 leading U.S.companies capturing approximately 80%coverage of available U.S.market capitalization.A spread is the difference in the quoted return on two investments,most commonly used in comparing bond yields.The STOXX Europe 600 In

285、dex includes 600 companies across 17 European Union countries.The Swiss Market Index(SMI)includes 20 large and mid-cap stocks.TOPIX refers to the Tokyo Stock Price Index.Treasuries are bonds issued by the U.S.government.U.S.is the United States.USD is the currency code for the U.S.Dollar.Volatility

286、is the degree of variation of a trading-price series over time.The yield curve shows the different rates for bonds of differing maturities but the same credit quality.Glossary31PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material

287、,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nomina

288、l value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investmen

289、t is positive.Investments come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.Important noteGeneralThis document may not be distribute

290、d in Canada or Japan.This document is intended for retail or professional clients only.This document is being circulated in good faith by Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft,its branches(as permitted in any relevant jurisdiction),affiliated companies and its officers and employees(collectively,“Deutsch

291、e Bank”).This material is for your information only and is not intended as an offer,or recommendation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment,security,financial instrument or other specific product,to conclude a transaction,or to provide any investment service or investment advice,

292、or to provide any research,investment research or investment recommendation,in any jurisdiction,but is intended solely for information purposes.The information does not replace advice tailored to the individual circumstances of the investor.All materials in this communication are meant to be reviewe

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295、sted capital.The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time.This document does not identify all the risks(direct or indirect)or other considerations which may be material to an investor when making an investment decision.

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310、sche Bank.Unless notified to the contrary in a particular case,investment instruments are not insured by any governmental entity,not subject to deposit 32PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the ca

311、se in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price

312、gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending on the current level of inflation,this may lead to a real loss in value,even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.Investmen

313、ts come with risk.The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time.Your capital may be at risk.This document was produced in December 2024.protection schemes and not guaranteed,including by Deutsche Bank.This document

314、may not be reproduced or circulated without Deutsche Banks express written authorisation.Deutsche Bank expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this material to third parties.Deutsche Bank accepts no liability whatsoever arising from the use or distribution of this material or for any ac

315、tion taken or decision made in respect of investments mentioned in this document which the investor may have made or may make in the future.The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries,including,without limitation,the United

316、States.This document is not directed to,or intended for distribution to or use by,any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,state,country,or other jurisdiction where such distribution,publication,availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or whic

317、h would subject Deutsche Bank to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction not currently met.Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of,and to observe,such restrictions.Past performance is no guarantee of future results;nothing

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327、ublic offering is,therefore,restricted in accordance with Decree Law No.31 of 1990 and the implementing regulations thereto(as amended)and Law No.7 of 2010 and the bylaws thereto(as amended).No private or public offering of the Interests is being made in Kuwait,and no agreement relating to the sale

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330、ing from,or incurred in reliance upon,any part of this document.Prospective subscribers of the securities should conduct their own due diligence on the accuracy of any information relating to securities.If you do not understand the contents of this document,you should consult an authorised financial

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332、te of Qatar.This document does not constitute a public offering and is addressed Important note33PERSPECTIVES 2025In Europe,Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material,but this is not the case in the U.S.No assurance can be given that any forecast

333、 or target can be achieved.Forecasts are based on assumptions,estimates,opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation.Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value.Depending