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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:April 03,2025 Report Number:CH2025-0064 Report Name:Grain and Feed Annual Country:China-Peoples Republ

2、ic of Post:Beijing Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:FAS China Staff and Joshua DeMoss Approved By:Adam Branson Report Highlights:Post forecasts MY 25/26 China corn production at 300 MMT,up 1.7 percent from MY 24/25,while corn imports are forecast at 8 MMT,lower than MY 23/24 levels due to

3、Chinas focus on grain self-sufficiency.Wheat and rice production are expected to increase slightly on improved yields and stable planted area,while sorghum and barley imports are projected to decline based on a number of market and non-market factors.Industry analysts have shared that larger-scale s

4、tock rotations happen every three to five years and 2025 is scheduled to be a stock rotation year for some grains and oilseeds in Chinas national reserves.Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on March 4,2025 on 740 U.S.agricultural product tariff line items,including 15 percent on wheat and corn an

5、d 10 percent on sorghum.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FAS China provides this analysis and reporting as a service to the United States agricultural community,and to our farmers,ranchers,and rural communities in support of a worldwide agricultural information system and a level playing field for U.S.agricultur

6、e.Chinas economy continues to face economic headwinds and slower growth.Overall consumption patterns are shifting,with the Beijing authorities implementing policies to increase domestic production and grain self-sufficiency while maintaining strategic reserves and restricting imports under campaigns

7、 to replace corn imports with substitute products and lower soybean meal inclusion.Feed consumption patterns continue to evolve with consumers shifting diets.Marketing Year(MY)2025/26 total feed and residual use is forecast to increase slightly from MY2024/25 on anticipated stable hog feed but highe

8、r poultry feed demand.Post forecasts swine production to increase in 2025,driven by higher pigs per sow per year due to improved management and animal health practices.However,growth is limited by a smaller sow inventory.Beijing encourages consumers to shift from pork to chicken meat,as the feed con

9、version rate for chicken is much higher than for swine.MY2025/26 corn production is forecast at 300 million metric tons(MMT),1.7 percent higher than MY2024/25 due to improved yields,with genetically engineered(GE)corn plantings expected to increase significantly.Chinas 2025 No.1 Document continued t

10、o note strategies for agriculture and rural development with food security as a priority,focusing on large-scale yield improvement programs and steady area for key grain and oilseed crops.Wheat production in MY2025/26 is forecast to be 1.5 percent higher than MY2024/25 on improved yield and steady p

11、lanted area.Rice production is expected to increase slightly due to stable area and better yields,in line with government plans to improve crop productivity.Sorghum and barley production are projected to remain stable,while imports of these commodities are expected to decline due to a combination of

12、 messaging efforts to reduce grain imports,availability of complementary goods,as well as conditions in the global market owing to geopolitics and retaliatory tariffs that is driving prices higher.China continues to promote higher local production through domestic support programs that focus on yiel

13、d improvements over trait or quality improvements.With Beijings focus on food and feed security,area is expected to remain stable,and imports will continue to face policy and regulatory challenges.Wheat and corn imports,both subject to Chinas tariff rate quota(TRQ)system,are projected to decrease si

14、gnificantly from MY2023/24 levels.Industry sources have shared that Beijing has been limiting grain imports since April 2024 by implementing various barriers,including delaying custom clearance and postponing TRQ issuance as authorities are seeming taking steps to support local prices.In calendar ye

15、ar 2024,grain reserve operations at all levels(i.e.,federal,provincial,etc.)increased purchases of domestic grains to protect farmer income,with industry estimates that the 2 government purchased up to 12 MMT of MY2023/24 corn,35 MMT of MY2024/25 corn,and at least 10 MMT of MY2024/25 wheat.On March

16、4,2025,Chinas State Council Tariff Commission imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S.agricultural products,including a 15 percent tariff on wheat and corn,and a 10 percent tariff on commodities such as sorghum and soybeans.This report only considers trade policies that are in effect at th

17、e time of publication.Further,unless a formal end date is specified,the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.Therefore,this report assumes U.S.tariffs on China and Chinas retaliatory tariffs on the United States will remain in place.FEED OVERVIEW Chinas MY2025/26 total feed and re

18、sidual use is forecast to increase slightly from MY2024/25 on anticipated stable hog feed but higher poultry feed demand.The proportion of corn mixed into rations is forecast to remain high(see Table 1).The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs(MARA)reported the total hog herd at the end of 2024

19、 was 427 million,down by 1.6 percent from last December but a quarter-by-quarter increase of 0.1 percent.The December sow inventory was still 1.6 percent lower year-on-year but has shown continuous month-on-month growth starting from May 2024.FAS China projects swine production to increase in 2025,d

20、riven by higher pigs per sow per year(PSY)due to improved management and animal health practices.However,growth is limited by a smaller sow inventory.Live swine prices have been rising since early 2024,staying above the estimated breakeven point since May.Despite higher slaughter weights,pork produc

21、tion in 2025 is expected to decline slightly from 2024.The primary factors for this drop are a year-over-year decrease in fattened swine ready for slaughter and weak demand.A state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS)analyst also believes there is no more room for growth in Chinese

22、pork production in immediate future.Post forecasts slightly larger chicken meat production in 2025 but with a slower growth rate than 2024,mainly due to a slower expansion of white broiler production.Industry contacts indicate the government tends to encourage customers to shift from pork to chicken

23、 meat,as the feed conversion rate for chicken is much higher than swine.Post forecasts beef production to decline slightly,mainly due to lower finished cattle inventories in 2025.Please see FAS Chinas recently published semi-annual 2025 Livestock and Poultry GAIN reports for additional information o

24、n these sectors,as well as the 2025 Oilseeds Annual.3 Table 1.China:Grain Feed and Residual Demand Estimates and Forecast1(in MMT)MY2023/24 MY2024/25 MY2025/26 Change(%)Corn 223 235 238 3 Sorghum 8 5.5 5-0.5 Barley 11.9 8.5 8-0.5 Wheat 37 33 33 0 Old Stock Rice(milled equivalent)6 1 2 1 Total 285.9

25、283 286 3 Source:FAS China Analysis(Note:The totals listed in the table represent the unprocessed amount of major feed grains used in feed production.Numbers include residual;Cassava and other minor corn substitutes not calculated).Chinas nationwide industrial feed production totaled 315 MMT in 2024

26、(see Table 2),down 2.1 percent year-on-year,according to the latest China Feed Industry Association(CFIA)report.Pig and poultry feed production accounted for 46 percent and 41 percent,respectively,of total feed production,compared with 47 and 40 percent,respectively,a year prior.Feed mills nationwid

27、e used 7.6 percent more corn,4.7 percent less soybean meal,52.8 percent and 51.3 percent of wheat and paddy rice respectively in their feed rations in 2024 than in 2023.Grains and soybean meal accounted for 59.5 percent of feed;0.3 percent lower than last year.Table 2.China:Annual Feed Production by

28、 Industry in 2020-2024 (in MMT)Swine Layers Broiler Aquaculture Ruminants Total 2020 Production 89.23 33.52 91.76 21.24 13.19 252.76 2021 Production 130.77 32.31 89.10 22.93 14.80 293.44 2022 Production 135.98 32.11 89.26 25.26 16.17 302.23 2023 Production 149.75 32.7 95.11 23.44 16.7 321.63 2024 Pr

29、oduction 143.91 32.36 97.54 22.62 14.49 315.03 Year-on-Year Increase(percent)-3.9%-1.2%2.6%-3.5%-13.3%-2.1%Note:Total amount of feed production includes major feed grains listed in Table 1,minor feed grains,oilseeds,and other feed inputs.Source:CFIA.On March 4,2025,Chinas State Council Tariff Commis

30、sion(SCTC)issued 2025 Announcement No.2(Ann.No.2)as part of a new round of retaliatory tariffs,effective March 10,affecting 740 tariff lines for U.S.agricultural products(see GAIN report CH2025-0044).According to the SCTC announcement,the duties would apply to anything not shipped out of the United

31、States by March 10 and that had not arrived in China by April 12.A 10-percent tariff will be applied to commodities such as sorghum and soybeans,while a 15-percent tariff will be imposed on items including wheat and corn.Industry contacts have shared with FAS China that Beijing continues issuing mar

32、ket-based tariff exclusions for the retaliatory Section 301 tariffs of 2018 and 2019.As such,if the exclusion is provided,this means that the applied tariff would be the sum of the MFN rate,the Section 232 retaliation rate(which has no exclusion process),and 1 Chinas commodity marketing year for cor

33、n,sorghum,and barley is October 1-September 30,and July 1-June 30 for wheat and rice.4 the SCTC Ann.No.2 tariff rate.(see GAIN report CH2025-0050 for more details).This report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication.Table 3.China:Schedule of Tariffs on U.S.Agricul

34、tural Products HS Code(8-digit)Product Description MFN Rate Section 232 Section 301 SCTC 2025 Ann.No.2 Provisional Total Applied Tariff Implementation Date Jan 1,2025 Apr 2,2018 Feb.14,2020 March 10,2025 March 10,2025 10051000 Corn Seed,certified,excluding sweet corn 1%15%16.0%10051000 Corn Seed,cer

35、tified,excluding sweet corn 20%15%35.0%10059000 Maize Excl.Seed,In-Quota 1%25.0%15%41.0%10059000 Maize Excl.Seed,Out-of-Quota 65%25.0%15%105.0%11022000 Maize(Corn)Flour,In-Quota 9%25.0%15%49.0%11022000 Maize(Corn)Flour,Out-of-Quota 40%25.0%15%80.0%11031300 Groats And Meal Of Corn(Maize),In-Quota 9%5

36、.0%15%29.0%11031300 Groats And Meal Of Corn(Maize),Out-Quota 65%5.0%15%85.0%11042300 Grains,Worked(For Example,Hulled,Pearled,Sliced Or Kibbled),Of Corn(Maize),In-Quota 10%5.0%15%30.0%11042300 Grains,Worked(For Example,Hulled,Pearled,Sliced Or Kibbled),Of Corn(Maize),Out-of-Quota 65%5.0%15%85.0%1007

37、1000 Grain Sorghum Seed 0%5.0%10%15.0%10079000 Grain Sorghum,Excl.Seed 2%25.0%10%37.0%10011100 Durum Wheat Seed,in-quota 1%15%16.0%10011100 Durum Wheat Seed,out-of-quota 65%15%80.0%10011900 Durum Wheat,Excl.Seed,In-Quota 1%25.0%15%41.0%10011900 Durum Wheat,Excl.Seed,Out-of-Quota 65%25.0%15%105.0%100

38、19100 Seed of other wheat and maslin,in-quota 1%15%16.0%10019100 Seed of other wheat and maslin,out of quota 65%15%80.0%10019900 Other Wheat And Maslin,Excl.Seed,In-Quota 1%25.0%15%41.0%10019900 Other Wheat And Maslin,Excl.Seed,Out-of-Quota 65%25.0%15%105.0%11010000 Wheat or Maslin Flour,In-Quota 6%

39、25.0%15%46.0%11010000 Wheat or Maslin Flour,Out-of-Quota 65%25.0%15%105.0%11032010 Pellets Of Wheat,In-Quota 10%5.0%15%30.0%11032010 Pellets Of Wheat,Out-of-Quota 65%5.0%15%85.0%5 Chart 1.China:National Average Grain Prices 2023-2025 Source:NBS.FEED GRAINS Chart 2.China:Grain Imports for Previous Fi

40、ve Years Source:Trade Data Monitor,LLC and FAS China Analysis.6 Corn Production Image 1.China:Corn Production Corn production in MY2025/26 is forecast at 300 MMT,1.7 percent higher than MY2024/25 due to improved yields.Post expects GE corn plantings to increase significantly in 2025,which should als

41、o be a positive for yield growth,as the government plans to promote large-scale yield improvement programs.Post estimates MY2025/26 corn planted area will be slightly lower than MY2024/25 due to depressed post-harvest farmgate corn prices in the 2024/25 marketing season to date.Some farmers may swit

42、ch to soybean as higher subsidies(see Table 3)give farmers a guaranteed return.The area decline is projected to mainly occur in Northeast China,but the change would be small as government policies encourage stable soy and corn area.The non-traditional corn-producing provinces,such as Xinjiang and Ga

43、nsu are estimated to continue increasing their corn area this year,as the local government pushes for more grain acreage in accordance with Beijings direction and messaging.On February 23,the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)Central Committee and the State Council unveiled the 2025 No.1 Document,which ou

44、tlines comprehensive strategies for agriculture and rural development.Food security remains a priority,with this years focus on boosting crop yields and quality through large-scale improvement programs.The planted area for key grain and oilseed crops,including wheat,rice,corn,and soybeans,is expecte

45、d to remain stable.The document also calls for advancing the action plan,initiated in 2024,to boost Chinas grain production capacity by 50 MMT by 2030,with corn and soybeans as major contributors to the 7 grain output increase,as well as tubers and coarse grains.It also calls for improvements to cor

46、n and soybean subsidy programs and a steady subsidy for arable land fertility.Image 2.China:Black Soil Land in Heilongjiang Before Planting Source:FAS China.In early 2025,MARA reported that the MY2024/25 yield increase was driven by higher planting density,including adding 1,5004,500 more corn plant

47、s per hectare across entire counties,along with the promotion of high-yield techniques and upgrades in agricultural machinery,particularly for sowing,including the use of drones and GPS technology.MARA experts explained that the high yields of major grain and oil crops in pilot fields have achieved

48、remarkable results for many consecutive years.This year the emphasis is on large-scale yield improvement,which aims at striving to transform the pilot yield or experimental fields into the actual yield of field production.MARA emphasizes enhancing both yield and quality for grain and oil crops in 20

49、25/26 in a larger area across entire townships,counties,and cities,and strengthening management across the entire crop production cycle.Some industry contacts anticipate that Chinas MY2025/26 corn yield will increase by approximately 5 percent and soybean self-reliance will reach 25 percent.The 2025

50、 No.1 Document also states that China will“continue to advance the commercialization of biological breeding,”which indicates an expansion of genetically engineered(GE)pilot areas and moves China closer to fully commercializing GE seeds.In November 2024,MARA announced the issuance of 58 seed producti

51、on and operational licenses,including 13 GE corn seed production and operational licenses.In December 2024,MARA announced the issuance of new and renewed biosafety certificates for genetically engineered(GE)events.These efforts pave the way for their commercial cultivation.(see GAIN report CH2024-01

52、65 and CH2024-0180)Industry rumors previously speculated that China may fully commercialize biotech corn and soybean production in 2025.Industry sources estimate the amount of acreage sown with GE seeds in MY2024/25 reached 15 million mu(1 million hectare)with 11 million mu of GE corn and 4 million

53、mu of GE soybean.An industry contact forecasts that Chinas total GE corn and GE soy crop will reach 40-50 million mu(2.7-3.3 million hectare)in MY2025/26 with at least 35 million mu of GE corn(2.3 million hectare or 5 percent of total 8 corn area),and 80-100 million mu(5.3-6.7 million hectare or 15

54、percent of total corn area)in MY2025/26.Northeastern provinces will continue their“grower subsidies”(see Chinas central fiscal agricultural policies in the Policy Section),with soybean subsidies expected to be$580-830 per hectare(RMB 280-400 per mu)more than their corn subsidy in reaction to central

55、 government directives.The subsidies for intercropping will continue to encourage farmers to intercrop corn and soy.According to the 14th Five Year Development Plan of the National Planting Industry,the county will have more than 3.33 million hectares(50 million mu)of corn-soy intercropping,accounti

56、ng for 7.5 percent of total area in 2025.Table 4.China:Corn-Soybean Growers Subsidies(RMB per Mu)Year Heilongjiang Jilin Liaoning Inner-Mongolia Corn Soybean Corn Soybean Corn Soybean Corn Soybean 2016 154 119 182 162 179 112 170 45 2017 134 173 162 165-266 159 135-207 150 177-180 2018 25 320 94 224

57、 100 145-200 15.64 200 2019 30 255 86 265 76 276 79 235 2020 38 238 65-80 245-500 60-70 245-260 90-100 245-250 2021 68 248 60-140 265-500 60-83 210-240 50-133 200-235 2022 28 248 50-94 333-500 Soy is at least 200 RMB higher than corn 320-400 2023 28 350 Soy is 220-320 yuan higher than corn Soy is at

58、 least 350 yuan higher than corn Soy is at least 260 yuan higher than corn 2024 20 352 Soy is 280-400 yuan higher than corn Soy is at least 350 yuan higher than corn Soy is at least 270 yuan higher than corn 2025 subsidies expected to be consistent with 2024 Source:Provincial Governments.Note:1 mu t

59、o hectares=0.06667 hectares.Nationwide corn prices declined between the 2024 harvest and the 2025 Spring Festival to a four-year low.Central and provincial governments adopted a series of measures including limiting imports and increasing domestic reserve procurement to protect farmers interests.Sin

60、ce the Spring Festival in early February 2025,trade dynamics have contributed to rising domestic prices.By early March,prices at Northeast ports had rebounded to around$308(RMB 2,230)per metric ton(MT),while those at North China Plain(NCP)ports remained around$324(RMB 2,350)per MT.Based on planting

61、costs(see Tables 5 and 6),in order to break even,the estimated MY2024/25 corn price at Northern ports should be around$310(RMB 2,250)per MT,while the projected MY2025/26 price would need to be about$290(RMB 2,100)per MT as land rental costs have moved lower.9 Table 5.China:MY2025/26 Planting Cost of

62、 Northeast Corn Unit Heilongjiang Jilin Inner-Mongolia Liaoning Change YOY Land Rental and Labor(RMB per HA)10,950 12,000 12,750 13,800 -9%Fertilizer (RMB per HA)2,250 3,450 2,925 3,450 0%Pesticide (RMB per HA)345 300 345 300 0%Total Cost (RMB per HA)16,170 18,810 19,020 20,685 -6%Breakeven Cost Con

63、verted to Volume Basis(RMB per MT)*1,600 1,760 1,540 1,900-7%Source:Industry Sources.*Estimated breakeven cost converted from a land area basis to a metric ton production basis assuming normal yield.Table 6.China:MY2025/26 Planting Cost of NCP Corn Unit Shandong Hebei Henan Change YOY Land Rental an

64、d Labor(RMB per HA)8,250 7,950 7,500 -9%Fertilizer (RMB per HA)2,550 2,400 2,400 0%Pesticide (RMB per HA)900 900 900 0%Total Cost (RMB per HA)16,125 15,525 14,925 -5%Breakeven Cost Converted to Volume Basis(RMB per MT)*1,720 1,700 1,660-10%Source:Industry Sources.*Estimated breakeven cost converted

65、from a land area basis to a metric ton production basis assuming normal yield.MARA reports that it has successfully limited fall armyworm(FAW)damage to under 5 percent of total production over the last three years.According to a January 8,2025,report from the National Agro-Tech Extension and Service

66、 Center(NATESC),there have been more serious occurrences this year of FAW to date in the Southwest,South,and Yangtze River Delta area compared to the same time last year.Thus far in 2025,FAW has been found in 3.3 million hectares(50 million mu)of land,compared with 3.3 million hectares(45 million mu

67、)last year,accounting for 7 percent of total corn area.10 Consumption Total corn consumption in MY2025/26 is projected to reach 321 MMT,a 1 percent increase from MY2024/25.This growth is driven by a return to traditional corn usage in feed rations,low prices boosting processing output,and government

68、 policies limiting corn substitute imports.Chart 3.China:Percentage of Corn in Compound Feed Source:Industry Sources.Feed Consumption Feed use takes up 65 percent of Chinas total corn consumption.Post forecasts MY2025/26 corn feed consumption will increase by about one percent,as corn remains to be

69、the most cost-effective feed grain in the first few months of 2025.Beijing has discouraged imports of alternative grains to protect local farmers welfare.The ratio of corn in feed rations is expected to trend higher than in the previous year.CFIA estimates large feed mills nationwide used 8 MMT or 6

70、.7 percent more corn in feed rations in 2024 than 2023.In addition,CFIA highlighted soybean meal inclusion has slumped by close to 5 percent,while use of wheat in feed fell more than 50 percent in 2024.As soybean meal(SBM)prices soared by almost 30 percent in the first quarter of 2025,many feed mill

71、s reported turning to high-protein corn to replenish SBM.Chinese official news reported that to reduce dependency on foreign sources,the country has been promoting high-protein corn varieties,with an average protein content of 10 percent,surpassing standard corn by 2 percentage points,and these vari

72、eties are already being rolled out on a larger scale.Industry estimates note that for every percentage increase in corn protein content,China can provide an additional 2.9 MMT of protein annually equivalent to the protein yield of eight MMT of soybeans.11 Chart 4.China:National Average Corn Starch O

73、peration Rates Source:Industry Sources.FSI(Food,Seed,and Industrial)The processing sector occupies 30 percent of Chinas total corn consumption,among which about 30 percent is for starch,25 percent is for ethanol and about 15 percent is for amino acid and other products.Post forecasts MY2025/26 corn

74、industrial consumption will be flat and in line with MY2024/25.Chinas leading corn deep processing enterprises include COFCO,Meihua,and Xinhecheng.COFCO dominates the number of patents and holds more than 10 percent of the market share,as it leads the whole industrial chain.The top five corn deep pr

75、ocessing companies in aggregate occupy about 40 percent of the market share.These companies are concentrated in Northeast markets,with only COFCO branches spreading across the country.Chinas deep processing capacity has steadily increased in recent years,though growth is expected to slow in 2025 due

76、 to high corn prices in MY2023/24.The projected capacity for 2024 is nearly 130 MMT,a 3 percent year-over-year rise.So far in MY2024/25,operation rates are around 6065 percent,up 6 percent from the previous year.Heilongjiang,Shandong,and Jilin provinces lead in processing capacity,each exceeding 20

77、MMT and collectively accounting for 60 percent of the national total.Xinjiang province,an emerging corn production hub,has significant potential to become a future processing center.Although corn prices have been rising after Lunar New Year,average corn prices are still at relatively low levels,abou

78、t 8 percent lower than 2024.Post learned from various sources that MY2024/25 corn has lower test weight and higher toxin rates than last year.Low-priced corn would encourage corn use especially in the ethanol sector because ethanol production is less sensitive on quality issues.Industry reported tha

79、t ethanol processing used 20 MMT of corn in 12 2024,up six percent from 2023.In the first five months of MY2024/25,corn consumption in ethanol production jumped by seven percent year-over-year.In early March,corn starch processing in Northeast provinces saw slight profits above the breakeven point,w

80、hile NCP provinces faced losses.Ethanol production remained unprofitable,whereas starch sugar and amino acids generated strong returns.Imports Post forecasts MY2025/26 corn imports at 8 MMT,1 MMT higher than Posts MY2024/25 estimate.MY2024/25 corn imports are adjusted to 7 MMT,down by 16 MMT from la

81、st year due to trade policy changes such as retaliatory tariffs,etc.China continues to promote higher local production via better yield on stable area,and the CCP government discourages grain imports to protect the interests of local farmers.As noted,this report only considers trade policies that ar

82、e in effect at the time of publication.Further,unless a formal end date is specified,the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.U.S.tariffs on China and Chinas retaliatory tariffs on the United States are assumed to remain in place.However,because imports from the United States acco

83、unted for only about 15 percent of Chinas total corn imports in 2024,the impact of retaliatory tariffs on the domestic market is expected to be limited.Since at least 2020,China has sought to diversify its feed and food grain supply chains and boost domestic production.After permitting imports of co

84、rn from Brazil in 2022,China approved the importation of two varieties of genetically engineered corn from Argentina in May 2024.This move could further reduce the U.S.share of Chinas corn import market.China currently holds 32,325 MT of contracts for U.S.-origin corn(excluding unknown destinations)

85、for delivery in MY2024/25 with 0 MT in outstanding sales.In addition,even without the application of new retaliatory tariffs,Chinas purchase of U.S.corn is expected to be low in the first quarter of 2024 as import margins are very small.Table 7.China:Market Share(%)of Chinas Major Corn Import Origin

86、s Rank Partner YEAR 2022%of Market Share YEAR 2023%of Market Share YEAR 2024%of Market Share World 20,618,555 100%27,122,034 100%13,713,371 100%1 Brazil-12,805,776 47%6,465,911 47%2 Ukraine 5,263,955 26%5,512,788 20%4,591,751 33%3 United States 14,864,745 72%7,144,211 26%2,072,515 15%4 Myanmar 193,5

87、28 1%381,244 1%178,159 1%5 Russia 94,615 0%294,467 1%155,385 1%Unit:Metric Tons.Source:Trade Data Monitor,LLC.Brazil has now become the top corn supplier since China received the first vessel of Brazilian corn in early January 2023.The first half of the year is the off season for Chinas imports of c

88、orn from Brazil.Production,logistics,and the volatility surrounding the Black Sea continues to 13 disrupt corn imports from Ukraine.However,industry rumors note that China ordered close to 3 MMT of corn from Ukraine in early March to arrive at Chinese ports between April and May.However,FAS China co

89、ntacts are unable to confirm the order.Table 8.China:Estimated Grain Imports in 2025 First Quarter Unit:MMT Corn Sorghum Barley Wheat 2024 First Quarter 7.9 2.2 4.4 4.3 2025 First Quarter 0.8 1.1 2.3 0.8 Change-7.1-1.1-2.1-3.5 Source:Industry Source.Chinas central and local governments have been lim

90、iting grain imports since April 2024 to protect farmers interest from low domestic prices,by setting barriers on corn imports into bonded areas,summoning top traders to industry meetings and urging them to reduce imports,delaying custom clearance processes and document issuance,and postponing the is

91、suance of TRQ.Industry indicates that private traders have not received TRQs as of early March,which will delay imports to April at the earliest.For more information on TRQs,please see the Policy Section.From October to December,the total amount of imported corn,sorghum,barley and wheat were down by

92、 12.5 MMT year-over-year.From January to March,the aggregate imports of the four grains are estimated to drop by 14 MMT.Chinas state-run Economic Daily published an article claiming large volumes of low-cost grain imports have suppressed prices,reduced farmers incomes,and weakened agricultural produ

93、ction,posing a risk to national food security.To address this,the article advocates for stricter import regulations through quotas and technical controls to maintain a balance between trade and domestic production.In 2024,China imported more than the 7.2 MMT allowed under the TRQ for corn on a calen

94、dar year basis for the fifth year in a row.However,the administration of Chinas TRQ program has not changed,and imports more than the TRQ are less likely again in 2025 because of Chinas demands of fewer grain imports.Imports outside the TRQ carry a 65 percent tariff as opposed to one percent within

95、quota-making outside quota imports prohibitive.Industry contacts note,however,there an unofficial and intentionally obscured“Special TRQ”through which State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs)can import corn outside of the TRQ.Large feed mills used to be able to import corn for producing compound feed in Free T

96、rade Zones and export the feed with a 100 percent tax rebate to avoid tariffs.Industry believes the bulk of last years imported corn is stored in government reserves and not yet circulating in the domestic market.Based on incomplete data available from June 2021 through December 2024,Chinas state st

97、ockpiler,Sinograin,offered a total amount of 28 MMT of imported corn for sale,and of that,less than 9 MMT was sold,likely because of high asking prices.These offers occurred in several tranches throughout the period,with varying amounts offered each time,ultimately resulting in the 28 MMT accumulate

98、d total offer by the end of 2024.Comment/Example:4 MMT offered four times with one MMT sold each time would amount to 16 MMT offered and 4 MMT sold.End Comment/Example.In December 2024,14 Sinograin announced suspension of auctioning imported corn from its inventories,as part of its efforts to prop u

99、p local corn prices.Sinograin said after the domestic fall harvest that it would increase purchases and storage of domestically produced corn.Chart 5.China:Imported Corn Auction Results 2024 Source:Industry Sources.Note:Significant amounts of corn sold September 2024 through November 2024 is a resul

100、t of imported corns quality over domestic corn.On January 11,2023,MOFCOM announced it will renew the countervailing(CVD)and antidumping(AD)duty measures on the import of distillers dried grains with or without solubles(DDGS,under HTS 23033000)from the United States.As a result,from January 12,2023,t

101、he General Administration of Customs of China(GACC)continues collecting duties on DDGS imports from the United States until 2028.The final AD and CVD rates remain unchanged from the existing measure.The AD rates of companies range from 42.2 to 53.7 percent.The CVD rates range from 11.2 percent to 12

102、.0 percent.Please see FAS Chinas AD and CVD Measures on U.S.DDGS Extended Another Five Years GAIN reports for additional information on DDGS AD/CVD duties.15 Table 9.China:DDGS Imported Through Ordinary Trade Versus FTZs in 2024 HS Code Commodity Customs Regime 2023 Quantity(MT)2024 Quantity(MT)2303

103、3000 Brewing or distilling dregs&waste Ordinary Trade 645 0 23033000 Brewing or distilling dregs&waste Processing with Imported Materials 121,388 221,149 23033000 Brewing or distilling dregs&waste Entrepot Trade by Bonded Area 15 11,257 Source:GACC.Chart 6.China:Imports of DDGS 2015-2024 Source:Trad

104、e Data Monitor,LLC.Feed industry sources report that they prefer U.S.DDGS for its better quality,high protein content(ranging from 26 to 30 percent),as well as competitive prices.Landed DDGS imported from the United States to southern ports in China were quoted around$250(RMB 1,815)per MT for first

105、quarter 2025 delivery to free trade zones(FTZs)in China.In early March 2025,Chinas domestic DDGS prices were$348(RMB 2,520)in South China.Meanwhile,local corn prices range from$303(RMB 2,200)in the north to$317(RMB 2,300)in the south.China imported 233,419 MT of DDGS in 2024,an increase of 70 percen

106、t from the previous year.These DDGS were imported in bonded areas to avoid tariffs.16 Stocks Corn ending stocks in MY2025/26 are forecast at 182 MMT,down 13 MMT from MY2024/25,with higher use and lower imports.Over the past three years,grain reserves at all levels(see a summary of Chinas grain reser

107、ve system in the Policy Section)have been enhancing procurement of domestic grains with intention to protect farmer income.In 2024,Sinograin published several rounds of notices to increase corn and wheat procurement nationwide,the first large scale increase of corn procurement for reserves since 201

108、6 after China cancelled its minimum support price(MSP)for corn policy.Industry estimates that the State Reserve bought up to 12 MMT of MY2023/24 corn,35 MMT of MY2024/25 corn,and at least 10 MMT of MY2024/25 wheat to support prices in 2024.In early March 2025(MY2024/25),the National Food and Strateg

109、ic Reserve Administration(NFSRA)reported a record 308.8 MMT of fall grain procurement by all kinds and levels of grain enterprises.This volume is more than double the MY2023/24 amount,implying more grain entered into reserves instead of being sold on the market.In addition to storing and stocking do

110、mestic corn,industry sources project that Sinograin currently has around 2 MMT of imported corn in reserve.By early March 2025,farmers across the country sold more than 70 percent of their corn,10 percent faster than last year.Commercial stocks at northern ports in early March are piling up at much

111、higher levels than last year.Stocks in Southern ports are also a little more than last year,as consumption trails arriving supplies.With significantly fewer imports of both corn and corn substitutes,industry sources estimate MY2024/25 Northeastern corn will be exhausted by May and NCP corn will be u

112、sed up by the end of March 2025.If current domestic and international situations persist,taking into consideration of cost efficiency,Post predicts the government may first resume corn reserve auctions,then release wheat reserves or old stock rice to replenish the market.Industry sources anticipate

113、that there is a need to rotate old stocks with new crop grains,so China has space for when imports are necessary.17 Table 10.China:Corn Production,Supply,and Distribution Corn 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 Market Year Begins Oct 2023 Oct 2024 Oct 2025 China USDA Official New Post USDA Official New P

114、ost USDA Official New Post Area Harvested(1000 HA)44218 44218 44741 44741 0 44740 Beginning Stocks(1000 MT)206040 204040 211286 211286 0 195183 Production(1000 MT)288842 288842 294917 294917 0 300000 MY Imports(1000 MT)23407 23407 8000 7000 0 8000 TY Imports(1000 MT)23407 23407 8000 7000 0 8000 TY I

115、mp.from U.S.(1000 MT)2286 2286 0 0 0 0 Total Supply(1000 MT)518289 518289 514203 513203 0 503183 MY Exports(1000 MT)3 3 20 20 0 20 TY Exports(1000 MT)3 3 20 20 0 20 Feed and Residual(1000 MT)225000 223000 231000 235000 0 238000 FSI Consumption(1000 MT)82000 82000 82000 83000 0 83000 Total Consumptio

116、n(1000 MT)307000 305000 313000 318000 0 321000 Ending Stocks(1000 MT)211286 211286 201183 195183 0 182163 Total Distribution(1000 MT)518289 516289 514203 513203 0 503183 Yield(MT/HA)6.5322 6.5322 6.5916 6.5916 0 6.7054(1000 HA),(1000 MT),(MT/HA)MY=Marketing Year,begins with the month listed at the t

117、op of each column TY=Trade Year,which for Corn begins in October for all countries.TY 2025/2026=October 2025-September 2026 OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:PSD Online Advanced Query 18 Sorghum and Barley Sorghum Production Image 3.China:Sorghum Production Post forecasts both sorghum and barley prod

118、uction will remain stable in MY2025/26,as government policies continue to promote stable corn and soy planting,and higher yield for coarse grains with stable area.The announcement of new retaliatory tariffs pushed up domestic corn and sorghum prices,which will incentivize domestic production at a ti

119、me when farmers are beginning to make planting decisions.Northeast China is the principal sorghum production region,accounting for more than two-thirds of total production.Inner Mongolia province mainly produces sorghum for feed use.In Sichuan and Guizhou provinces,sorghum is almost exclusively grow

120、n for potable alcohol(i.e.,baijiu白酒)production and primarily contracted early in the planting season(i.e.,October-December).Consumption Sorghum FSI use for baijiu production is expected to remain weak in MY2025/26.NBS data showed Chinese baijiu production has declined over the past eight years.In 20

121、24,production was 4.1 billion liters,down by 8 percent year-over-year,or more than 69 percent of the 2016 peak.However,from November 2024 to January 2025,baijiu production saw month-over-month slight increases for three months in a row.Although overall baijiu production fell,the industry remains pro

122、fitable.High-end brands report good sales,particularly among top-tier brands.High-end baijiu brands claim to use a higher percentage of domestic sorghum though imported sorghum makes its way into potable alcohol production,too.19 Chart 7.China:Sorghum CY Imports 2020-2024 Source:Trade Data Monitor,L

123、LC.Prices of other corn substitute grains and imports drive sorghum feed consumption(see Table 11 for prices of alternative grains).Feed mills normally purchase the most cost-efficient options.Imports Because domestic production covered only 31 percent of demand last year,imports are crucial.Posts f

124、orecast for MY2025/26 imports is 5 MMT.Post also adjusted MY2024/25 sorghum import to 5 MMT,2.5 MMT lower than the January Updats but 500,000 MT higher than USDAs estimate as U.S.sorghum is still price-competitive for baijiu production even after Chinas recent retaliatory tariff.However,the retaliat

125、ory tariffs are expected to impact Chinas sorghum imports the most,raising the price of U.S.sorghum.China relies on the United States for approximately two-thirds of its sorghum imports.Given the limited number of major sorghum-exporting countriesprimarily the United States,Australia,and Argentinath

126、e global sorghum trade is likely to undergo huge changes due to escalating trade tensions.Australias agricultural sector may benefit the most,especially with a strong harvest this year and better quality in comparison to sorghum from South America.However,neither Australia,Brazil nor Argentina has t

127、he capacity to export significantly higher volumes to China this year.An Australian trader noted that any increase in shipments to China would require diverting supply from other markets(e.g.,Japan),which would be short-sighted and have a limited impact.Brazils sorghum planting expansion potential r

128、emains low in the short term.A contact in Brazil expects stable volumes,with corn remaining the preferred crop due to its higher return per area.Any sorghum growth would likely be in drought-prone areas or as a secondary crop,making large-scale expansion unlikely.Given Chinas ongoing demand,U.S.sorg

129、hum remains essential despite tariffs.Its quality advantage and necessity to meet demand will likely keep it competitive.See Table 11 for early March grain prices.20 Industry noted that the U.S.sorghum industrys dependence on China for shipments likely will be a hidden impact.In 2024,the U.S.exporte

130、d 88 percent of its grain sorghum to China,and since 2015,China has been responsible for 78 percent of U.S.sorghum exports on average.U.S.sorghum tariff-paid prices for April delivery landing at Southern Chinese ports is estimated to be around$345(RMB 2,500)per MT,a little higher than domestic corn

131、for feed use in the South but still attractive for liquor producers.Given the factors of low toxin of sorghum,rising domestic corn prices and the above-mentioned TRQ constraint on corn imports,U.S.sorghum is still a price competitive feed input.As of early March 2025,China held only 1 MMT of U.S.sor

132、ghum contracts for MY2024/25,78 percent lower than the same time in MY2023/24.Industry contacts estimate only 1.1 MMT of total sorghum from all origins arrived in China in the first quarter of 2025.Industry contacts expect the peak season for sorghum imports from Australia and Argentina to enter the

133、 China market in May 2025.Table 11.China:Imported Coarse Grain and Substitute Prices in Major Ports Commodity RMB Price U.S.Price Local Corn(Guangdong-Spot)2,300.00$317 Imported U.S.Corn Gulf(May Delivery-Within Quota)2,162.92$298 Imported U.S.Corn West Coast(May Delivery-Within Quota)2,026.17$279 I

134、mported Brazilian Corn(July Delivery-Within Quota)2,104.65$290 Imported Argentine Corn(May Delivery-Within Quota)2,128.52$294 Imported Australian Barley（May Delivery)2,218.17$306 Imported French Barley(May Delivery)2,242.51$309 Imported Argentine Barley(May Delivery)2,299.30$317 Imported Argentine S

135、orghum(April Delivery)2,213.28$305 Imported Australian Sorghum(April Delivery)2,304.97$318 Imported U.S.Sorghum(April Delivery)2,278.64$314 Local Wheat(Guangdong-Spot)2,560.00$353 Imported U.S.Soft Red Winter Wheat(May Delivery-Within Quota)2,380.25$328 Imported U.S.Hard Red Winter Wheat(May Deliver

136、y-Within Quota)2,541.76$351 Local DDGS(Spot)2,500.00$345 Imported U.S.DDGs(May Delivery-without AD/CVD)1,736.59$240 Unit:RMB per metric ton,exchange rate as of early March 2025 U.S.$1=RMB 7.25.Source:Industry Source.21 Barley Production Image 4.China:Barley Production Barley is mainly produced in Ji

137、angsu,Yunnan,and highland provinces like Gansu and Qinghai.As noted above,barley production is forecast to remain stable as government policies continue to promote stable corn and soy planting,and higher yield for coarse grains with stable area.Sorghum and barley compete for production area with oth

138、er crops.Unlike corn,sorghum and barley do not receive significant government support and imports are not restricted by a TRQ.Consumption MY2025/26 barley consumption is expected to increase slightly from MY2024/25 but will be a decrease compared to MY2023/24 volumes.MY2025/26 consumption is forecas

139、t higher than MY2024/25 because feed demand is forecast to be higher and private traders have consistently noted that barley has no TRQ limit,while tariffs constrain sorghum imports.This makes barley the preferred option after corn,sprouted wheat in the North China Plain,and old stock rice in the No

140、rtheast.This overall decline compared to MY2023/24 is primarily due to reduced imports,as detailed in the following section.Imports The expected slight increase in consumption for MY2025/26 over MY2024/25 reflects the growing importance of barley in Chinas feed grain portfolio due to its favorable i

141、mport conditions compared to other alternatives.Post estimates MY2024/25 barley imports to fall by 7 22 MMT from MY2023/24.Different barley varieties are preferred in China for malting versus feed use,each with their own unique market dynamics.Barley contains 1113 percent protein,with nearly twice t

142、he lysine content of corn.It is rich in minerals and trace elements,especially iron.In pig feed,its nutritional value is about 88 percent of corn and is favored for piglets due to its low toxin levels.In poultry feed,its value ranges from 8085 percent of corn.Barley is also an excellent concentrate

143、feed for dairy cows,comprising up to 40 percent of their diet.Major maltsters and large breweries,who are often located on the coast and prefer cheaper imports with easy logistics,primarily drive barley consumption.As a result,imports have limited prospects for significant expansion.NBS data reports

144、 that 2024 beer production was estimated down slightly by 0.6 percent.Chinas beer industry is also undergoing a small but growing trend towards higher-end beer consumption.Industry sources project 2025 beer consumption to flatten as Chinas population ages and growth potential diminishes.Chart 8.Chin

145、a:Barley CY Imports 2020-2024 Source:Trade Data Monitor,LLC.Imports drive feed barley prices in East and South China and positively correlate with corn prices.Based on Chinas share of total U.S.exports,barley may be the least impacted grain by Chinas newly announced tariffs.However,barley landed pri

146、ces to Southern Chinese ports kept increasing especially after the imposition of new retaliatory tariffs.May 2025 average prices of imported barley increased by almost$28(RMB 200)per MT from the end of 2024 and barley is no longer price competitive with corn right now.Traders shared with Post that b

147、uying interest was moderate,but due to the import control imposed by the government and the stockpiling over the past year,barley imports in the first quarter of 2025 halved year-over-year.Buyers in China primarily purchase Australian and Argentine barley during the first half of the year and then m

148、ove to Northern Hemisphere suppliers,such as France and Canada,for the 23 second half of the year.French and Ukrainian barley are predominately used for feed,while Canadian barley is mainly used for malting.While Chinas barley imports from Kazakhstan have increased in recent years,Kazakhstan still o

149、nly has seven percent of the barley import market.One advantage of Kazakh barley is that it can be transported to Chinas central provinces via express railway in 20 days.Russia and China signed a grain supply contract in October 2023 valued at$25.7 billion(2.5 trillion rubles)over 12 years for the s

150、upply of 70 MMT of Russian grain,legumes,and oilseeds.In mid-December 2023,Russia started sending containers of soybeans and barley to China via the New Land Grain Corridor,entering Chinas Inner Mongolian city Manzhouli through the Zabaikalsky grain terminal.Calendar year 2024 has seen China import

151、779,446 MT of Russian barley,a 67 percent increase year-over-year.Table 12.China:Sorghum Production,Supply,and Distribution Sorghum 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 Market Year Begins Oct 2023 Oct 2024 Oct 2025 China USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested(10

152、00 HA)630 630 630 650 0 650 Beginning Stocks(1000 MT)387 387 426 426 0 21 Production(1000 MT)3000 3000 3000 3100 0 3100 MY Imports(1000 MT)8341 8341 4500 5000 0 5000 TY Imports(1000 MT)8341 8341 4500 5000 0 5000 TY Imp.from U.S.(1000 MT)5599 5599 0 0 0 0 Total Supply(1000 MT)11728 11728 7926 8526 0

153、8121 MY Exports(1000 MT)2 2 5 5 0 0 TY Exports(1000 MT)2 2 5 5 0 0 Feed and Residual(1000 MT)8000 8000 4500 5500 0 5000 FSI Consumption(1000 MT)3300 3300 3000 3000 0 3000 Total Consumption(1000 MT)11300 11300 7500 8500 0 8000 Ending Stocks(1000 MT)426 426 421 21 0 121 Total Distribution(1000 MT)1172

154、8 11728 7926 8526 0 8121 Yield(MT/HA)4.7619 4.7619 4.7619 4.7692 0 4.7692(1000 HA),(1000 MT),(MT/HA)MY=Marketing Year,begins with the month listed at the top of each column TY=Trade Year,which for Sorghum begins in October for all countries.TY 2025/2026=October 2025-September 2026 OFFICIAL DATA CAN

155、BE ACCESSED AT:PSD Online Advanced Query 24 Table 13.China:Barley Production,Supply,and Distribution Barley 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 Market Year Begins Oct 2023 Oct 2024 Oct 2025 China USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested(1000 HA)500 500 500 560 0

156、560 Beginning Stocks(1000 MT)200 200 1698 1698 0 298 Production(1000 MT)2000 2000 2000 2300 0 2300 MY Imports(1000 MT)15898 15898 9500 9000 0 10000 TY Imports(1000 MT)15898 15898 9500 9000 0 10000 TY Imp.from U.S.(1000 MT)0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply(1000 MT)18098 18098 13198 12998 0 12598 MY Exports(10

157、00 MT)0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports(1000 MT)0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual(1000 MT)11900 11900 8500 8500 0 8000 FSI Consumption(1000 MT)4500 4500 4200 4200 0 4200 Total Consumption(1000 MT)16400 16400 12700 12700 0 12200 Ending Stocks(1000 MT)1698 1698 498 298 0 398 Total Distribution(1000 MT)18098 18098 13

158、198 12998 0 12598 Yield(MT/HA)4 4 4 4.1071 0 4.1071(1000 HA),(1000 MT),(MT/HA)MY=Marketing Year,begins with the month listed at the top of each column TY=Trade Year,which for Barley begins in October for all countries.TY 2025/2026=October 2025-September 2026 OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:PSD Onli

159、ne Advanced Query 25 MAJOR FOOD GRAINS Wheat Production Image 5.China:Wheat Production MY2025/26 wheat production is forecast to be 1.5 percent higher than MY2024/25 on improved yield and steady planted area.Decent yields and guaranteed returns are incentivizing farmers to plant wheat.Owing to stabl

160、e land rental fees and lower fertilizer and pesticide prices,the MY2024/25 input cost(i.e.,break even cost)is estimated at around$186(RMB 1,350)per mu or$2,793 per hectare,which equals to$303(RMB 2,200)per MT when converted to a volume basis when assuming normal yields.MY2025/26 wheat input cost per

161、 mu was about$189(RMB 1,370)per mu,up by 1.5 percent year-over-year due to higher labor and land cost.Note:One mu equals one-fifteenth of a hectare.Experts from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS)indicate that significant progress has been made in improving the yield of major grain an

162、d oil crops in field trials.MARA aims to translate the high yields demonstrated in the field trial into actual yields in large-scale field production starting in 2025.According to MARA,per-hectare yields in large-scale fields are expected to rise in the coming years,increasing from 7.1 MT to 9 MT fo

163、r rice,5.8 MT to 6.3 MT for wheat,and 6.5 MT to 9.75 MT for corn.Henan province,Chinas top wheat producer,which contributes a quarter of the countrys wheat output,reported a stable MY2025/26 wheat sowing area at 5.67 million hectares(85 million mu).26 The winter wheat crop,accounting for about 95 pe

164、rcentage of total wheat production,emerged from dormancy in better condition than last year,suggesting improved yields.Currently,87 percent of the winter wheat area has received first-and second-class quality ratings;1 percent lower than last year but 0.7 percent above the five-year average.However,

165、4.1 percent more wheat is growing faster than normal,raising concerns among industry groups about potential winter kill and lodging.According to the National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center(NATESC)s forecast,major wheat diseases and pests are expected to occur at a relatively severe level acr

166、oss China in 2025,affecting a total area of 63 million hectares.This includes 39 million hectares affected by diseases and 25 million hectares by pests.Chinas goal is to keep wheat disease and pest damage loss rates within 5 percent.Image 6.China:Wheat Field in Henan in February after Snow Source:Ch

167、ina Central Television Channel 13.Image 7.China:Farmers Use Drones to Apply Fertilizer Source:China Central Television Channel 13.27 Consumption MY2025/26 total wheat consumption is forecast to be the same as MY2024/25 at 151 MMT.Over the past five years,food consumption of wheat remains stable at a

168、bout 70 percent while feed consumption varies from 5 to 20 percent.Post forecasts MY2024/25 feed use will be lower than previous year at 33 MMT.Record low corn prices greatly reduced wheat substitution of corn in feed in 2024,along with reduced wheat auctions and wheat quality returning to normal.Th

169、e industry consensus is that MY2024/25 wheat substitution will be limited as the quality appears to be good.Additionally,the higher MSP also foretells less possibility for wheat to be used in feed in 2025 given normal situations.There are reports of tight supply of good-quality high protein wheat an

170、d higher mycotoxins in South Henan and North Hubei.Wheat substitution of corn is only practicable in NCP,mainly in Hubei and Henan,and happen mostly in summertime after harvest,or when massive rainfall affects wheat quality,or when corn prices are at least$28(RMB 200)per MT lower than wheat.Feed mil

171、ls report that wheat is better than corn as feed in terms of higher protein and amino acid.This year,however,industrys overwhelming belief is that real MY2024/25 corn production is 2-15 MMT lower than the official number,due to several industry reports of lower test weight and severe toxin issues.Th

172、e effective shortage of corn may push up wheat in feed use again.Feed mills suggest that the feed value of 100 MT of wheat equals 80 MT of corn and 20 MT of SBM.Wheat flour is also an irreplaceable ingredient in chick and piglet feed for easy digestion,high proteins,and low toxins.Due to rocketing S

173、BM prices in early 2025,wheat is replacing corn in Anhui,Jiangsu,and Hubei provinces for its higher protein content.Post projects MY2025/26 wheat consumption for food use to remain stable.Wheat flour demand has declined for three consecutive years,primarily due to a shrinking labor force and an agin

174、g population.Chinas population fell for the third straight year,reaching 1.408 billion by the end of 2024,a decrease of 1.39 million people from the previous year.Currently,over 20 percent of the population is aged 60 or older,and by 2035,this figure is expected to surpass 30 percent.Between 2019 an

175、d 2023,the working-age population(1659 years old)declined by 39 million,or 4 percent.The catering industry rebounded from 2022 to 2024,offering some hope for improved flour demand.Leading milling plants remain stable and operate with slim profits.Further,the diet of many young people in China contin

176、ues to shift to consumption of more convenient and on-the-go foods such as bread and bakery products,which is expected to drive growth in the coming year.However,household use of flour to make traditional staple food such as steamed buns and pancakes has dropped as younger generations dislike time-c

177、onsuming cooking process compared with a convenience.28 Chart 9.China:Corn and Wheat Average Price Difference 2020-2025 Source:NBS.Imports Chart 10.China:Wheat Auctions 2020-2024 Source:China Grain Trade Center.29 MY2025/26 wheat imports are forecast higher than MY2024/25,but 5.6 MMT lower than MY20

178、23/24 as a result of Chinas tariff policies and cancellations of orders.On September 21,2024,China set its TRQ for wheat imports in 2025 at 9.64 MMT,unchanged from previous years.However,Chinas wheat imports have exceeded the TRQ for four calendar years in a row.In the first two months of 2025,Canad

179、a and Australia are main sources for wheat imports but remain at a very low volume.Industry rumors note there may be additional unreported wheat shipments crossing the Kazakhstan-China border from various central Asia origins.In early February,China reportedly delayed imports of up to 600,000 MT of

180、predominantly Australian wheat and offered some of these cargoes to other buyers.Allegedly,this decision stems from large domestic supplies remaining on the market that reduced demand.Industry experts believe the cancellations were primarily price driven.Additionally,agricultural analysts note that

181、the countrys reserve storage capacity is constrained for additional grain stockpiles.China is currently well-stocked following substantial corn and wheat harvests.To support local prices,which have declined due to the abundant harvest,it seems that State buyers and maybe even private traders have no

182、 intention to accept new wheat shipments until as late as April.One source said there are four shipments carrying around 240,000 metric tons,three from Australia,and one from Canada,that Chinese buyers were trying to resell in Southeast Asia.The trader said he had heard that around 10 ships in total

183、 from Australia and Canada,booked for delivery in January or February were being delayed or resold,each carrying around 60,000 tons of wheat.An Australian trader said Chinas imports of wheat for feed and flour has been wound back to just flour.In early March 2025,China imposed a 15 percent tariff on

184、 U.S.wheat products.However,as Beijing authorities continue to diversify the origins and suppliers for potential grain sources,the impact of this new tariff is projected to be small.The export sales report shows no new sales and no outstanding sales of U.S.wheat to China by mid-March.China booked no

185、 shipments of wheat from all origins in March.Additionally,industry sources believe China will not purchase U.S.wheat in the next four to six months.While China has reduced wheat imports in recent months due to ample domestic supply,higher tariffs on U.S.wheat could create more opportunities for Aus

186、tralian suppliers.Consulting firm forecasts for MY2025/26 wheat imports vary from 8 to 11 MMT.Despite a typical annual wheat surplus of approximately 15 MMT,significant imports are still anticipated in 2025.This is because 2025 is scheduled to be a reserve rotation year.Wheat that has been stored in

187、 reserves beyond the standard storage time limit of three to five years must be replaced.As a result,there will be large-scale auctions of older stored wheat alongside substantial procurement of new crops.30 Chart 11.China:Wheat Imports 2020-2024 Source:Trade Data Monitor,LLC.Stocks Forecast MY2025/

188、26 ending stocks are slightly down from MY 2024/25.China has various reserves including state reserve,local reserves,commercial reserves,temporary or adjustment reserves,special reserves,and commercial reserves(See Chinas Grains Reserves System in the Policy Section).The temporary reserve began offe

189、ring old wheat stocks for auction in January 2024 with prices trading at about$21(RMB 150)per MT below market prices.China greatly reduced the amount of MSP wheat offered at auctions to a little more than 20,000 MT per week in MY2023/24.This volume is lower than the high weekly offer of 4 MMT observ

190、ed two to three years earlier.As MSP procurement was not initiated over the four-year period,industry estimates indicate that temporary reserves at the end of December 2023 stand at 37 MMT,which is slightly lower than the previous years levels.Of these total reserves,17 MMT comprise crops from 2014-

191、2018,15 MMT represent the 2019 crop,and 5 MMT are from the 2020 crop.On September 24,2024,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)set the 2025-2026 MSP for wheat procurement at$328(RMB 2,380)per MT,up from$325(RMB 2,360)per MT in 2024.Domestic wheat prices remain less than$14(RMB 100)abo

192、ve the governments MSP.The price denotes the amount at which the government buys wheat from farmers at the minimum price when the market price drops below that level in Hebei,Shandong,Henan,Shaanxi,Anhui,and Jiangsu provinces.The MSP price is always announced before winter wheat planting to encourag

193、e farmers continue planting wheat in October and November.Since the policy launched in 2016,officials have revised the wheat MSP down twice,each time reducing it by$8.30(RMB 60)per MT for 2018 and 2019.From 2020 to 2026,the MSP was adjusted up 5 times in a row,by$2.80(RMB 20),$5.50(RMB 40),$5.50(RMB

194、 40),$2.80(RMB 20),and$2.80(RMB 20),respectively.31 Table 14.China:Wheat MSP Changes 2015-2025/26(in RMB per MT)Year White Wheat Red Wheat Mixed 2015 2,360 2,360 2,360 2016 2,360 2,360 2,360 2017 2,360 2,360 2,360 2018 2,300 2,300 2,300-60-60-60 2019 2,240 2,240 2,240-60-60-60 2020 2,240 2,240 2,240

195、 2021 2,260 2,260 2,260+20+20+20 2022 2,300 2300 2,300+40+40+40 2023 2,340 2,340 2,340+40+40+40 2024 2,360 2,360 2,360+20+20+20 2025 2026 2,380 2,380 2,380+20+20+20 Source:NDRC.As wheat prices have been declining by 20 percent in 2024 due to weak demand and a reported bumper harvest,the government a

196、dopted a series of measures to boost prices,including suspending wheat temporary auctions since May 2024 and by increasing procurement for reserves at$345(RMB 2,500)per MT since June.By the end of 2024,Sinograin directed more than 430 stations across major wheat producing regions to procure wheat di

197、rectly from farmers.Wheat prices have thus been stabilizing at$331 per MT.In the future,Post projects wheat prices will remain stable Sinograin reportedly procured 10 MMT of wheat for reserves.Considering the annual supply surplus of 10 MMT each year over the past few years,industry consensus is tha

198、t wheat reserves are adequate or can be rotated out of reserve even without any imports in marketing year 2024/25.Demand for high-protein,good-quality wheat remains strong.The wheat price bottom is clearly defined at the policy procurement price,and corn prices determine wheat demand.China will use

199、wheat or old stock rice to supplement corn shortages,if any,to fill the gap left by imports.32 Table 15.China:Wheat Production,Supply,and Distribution Wheat 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 Market Year Begins Jul 2023 Jul 2024 Jul 2025 China USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official N

200、ew Post Area Harvested(1000 HA)23627 23627 23587 23587 0 23580 Beginning Stocks(1000 MT)138818 138818 134503 134503 0 128602 Production(1000 MT)136590 136590 140099 140099 0 142000 MY Imports(1000 MT)13635 13635 6500 6000 0 8000 TY Imports(1000 MT)13635 13635 6500 6000 0 8000 TY Imp.from U.S.(1000 M

201、T)2173 2173 0 0 0 0 Total Supply(1000 MT)289043 289043 281102 280602 0 278602 MY Exports(1000 MT)1040 1040 1000 1000 0 1000 TY Exports(1000 MT)1040 1040 1000 1000 0 1000 Feed and Residual(1000MT)37000 37000 33000 33000 0 33000 FSI Consumption(1000 MT)116500 116500 118000 118000 0 118000 Total Consum

202、ption(1000 MT)153500 153500 151000 151000 0 151000 Ending Stocks(1000 MT)134503 134503 129102 128602 0 126602 Total Distribution(1000 MT)289043 289043 281102 280602 0 278602 Yield(MT/HA)5.7811 5.7811 5.9397 5.9397 0 6.0221(1000 HA),(1000 MT),(MT/HA)MY=Marketing Year,begins with the month listed at t

203、he top of each column TY=Trade Year,which for Wheat begins in July for all countries.TY 2025/2026=July 2025-June 2026 OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:PSD Online Advanced Query 33 Rice Production Image 8.China:Rice Production MY2025/26 rough rice production is forecast to increase slightly due to a

204、stable area and higher yields.As mentioned above,China made grain production a national strategic priority and highlighted its efforts to improve yield in its No.1 Document.Per hectare yields are expected to increase from 7.1 MT for rice to about 9 MT for rice in large-scale field over the next few

205、years.National rice production yields hit a new record in 2024 and are expected to continue increasing in 2025.As of mid-March,spring farming and preparation for early rice plantings are beginning in southern China.Early rice in South China is in the sowing and seedling cultivation stage,with some a

206、reas reaching the three-leaf stage.Single-season rice planting commenced in Sichuan and Chongqing.Hunan and Jiangxi,the top rice producing provinces,expect their early rice planting area to exceed 18 million mu(1.2 million hectares),stable from last year.Favorable weather conditions and systematic s

207、eedling cultivation in these key rice-producing areas are laying a solid foundation for early rice transplanting and ensuring a stable grain supply.34 Consumption Table 16.China:Old Stock Rice Auctions in 2020-2025 Auction Period Amount Offered(MMT)Amount Sold(MMT)Notes 2020 14.5 9.2 2021 Mar 31-Oct

208、 28 48 15.6-Floor price increased from RMB 1,300 to 1,500 per metric ton(MT)-Rice mixed with wheat to be used in feed-2 MMT rice offered each week 2022 Mar 10-Apr 14 43.9 4.5-Floor price remained at RMB 1,500 per MT-500,0001 MMT rice offered each week May 15-Sep 29 24.6-Floor price increased from RM

209、B 1,500 to RMB1,600 per MT in Northeast and 1,700 per MT in South China-2 MMT rice was offered each week 2023 Aug 3-Sep 28 16.5 14.8-Around 2 MMT rice was offered each week-estimated price of old stock rice mixed with corn are about$380-387(RMB 2,700-2,750)per MT in northern ports,or$394-401(RMB 2,8

210、00-2,850)per MT in southern ports 2024 No Auction 2025 Industry expects 15 MMT old stock rice available for sell Source:Industry Sources.MY2025/26 rice consumption is forecast at 146 MMT,1 MMT higher than MY2024/25 based on anticipated greater demand for feed use.Chinas rice consumption for food is

211、expected to decline,along with its population.As living standards in China continue to improve,per capita rice consumption is decreasing,but the demand for taste,nutritional quality,and food safety is rising.As a result,the need for high-quality and functional rice products is growing.Chinas rice co

212、nsumption for feed is also expected to grow.Rice consumption for feed depends on old stock rice auctions and imported broken rice.The old stock rice auctions(please see Table 13)suspended in 2024 as price are not competitive to corn.With corn prices increasing after February 2025,old stock price gai

213、n price competitiveness to corn.Industry estimates there will be 15 MMT old stock rice available for sale in 2025.Industry rumors are that the auction floor price will decrease from$234(RMB 1,700)to$193(RMB 1,400)per MT,so the estimated price of old stock rice mixed with corn are about$331(RMB 2,400

214、)per MT,similar to corn prices but with fewer toxins and greater protein.35 Imports Post forecasts MY2025/26 rice imports to increase due to Indias removal of its broken rice export ban.On March 7,India announced the resumption of broken rice exports after inventories reached a record high in early

215、February,nearly nine times the governments target.This could support Chinas animal feed and ethanol producers that rely on this rice grade.India had banned exports of 100 percent broken rice in September 2022,followed by restrictions on all other rice grades in 2023,citing concerns about production

216、after poor rainfall.However,after harvesting a record crop,the government lifted restrictions on all grades except 100 percent broken rice.Traders expect Indian broken rice exports to reach 2 MMT in 2025.Currently,broken rice from India is priced at$330 per MT,compared to approximately$300 per MT fr

217、om competitors like Vietnam,Myanmar,and Pakistan.The booming broken rice imports in 2021-2022,which allowed Chinese importers to avoid the TRQ,will likely come back in 2025.A trade contact noted that the tariff-paid landed price of Indian rice at southern ports in China is around$412(RMB 2,988)per M

218、T,which is currently too expensive for Chinese buyers.Table 17.China:Rice Import Classification Year 2023 Long-grain(MT)Med/short grain(MT)1006.3020,Long grain milled rice 985,272 1006.3080,med/short grain milled rice 6,435 1006.4020 Long grain broken rice 571,537 1006.4080 med/short grain broken ri

219、ce 61,372 1006.1081 Long grain paddy 0 1006.1089 med/short grain paddy 0 1006.2020 Long grain brown rice 294 1006.2080 med/short grain brown rice 0 TOTAL 1,557,103 67,807 Source:GACC.MY2024/25 rice imports are estimated to grow from MY2023/24 due to low international prices.In 2025,international ric

220、e prices are expected to continue to decline because of weak demand and ample supply.Major exporters such as Thailand,Vietnam,and India have seen rice prices fall by 3040 percent since early 2024,now nearing the 10-year average,though still above the lowest levels.Due to weak demand and ample supply

221、,Indias rice export prices have continued to drop,hitting their lowest level since June 2023.The FOB price of Indias 5 percent broken white rice is$390-400 per ton,while Vietnams 5 percent broken rice is priced at$389 per ton.After India lifted its export ban in September 2024,Vietnams 5 percent bro

222、ken rice price had plunged by 40 percent by March 2025 compared to the end of 2023,making it the lowest among major exporters,only slightly higher than Pakistan.Thailands 5 percent broken rice is priced at$415 per ton.A Bangkok-based trader said there are no signs of large orders at this stage,so pr

223、ices are likely to remain at this level for the foreseeable future.China imported 1.6 MMT of rice in calendar year 2024,a decrease of 37 percent year-over-year.The largest reductions of imports came from India(from 2.2 MMT in 2022 to 241,962 MT in 36 2023 to 57,375 MT in 2024,down 76 percent)and Vie

224、tnam(from 934,701 MT to 280,586 MT,down by 70 percent)because of a high international price.Chart 12.China:Rice Imports 2020-2025 Source:Trade Data Monitor,LLC.37 Chart 13.China:Broken Rice Imports by Country Note:No imports from India in January and February 2024.Source:Trade Data Monitor,LLC.Expor

225、ts MSP procurement was launched in Henan,Jiangsu,Heilongjiang,and Anhui provinces in 2024 because prices dropped below the MSP.With the increase of MSP rice procurement,Chinas rice exports are expected to increase.Chinas top export markets in 2024 were South Korea,Cameroon,Papua New Guinea,and Puert

226、o Rico.Chinas rice exports are primarily low quality or old rice at low prices which helps reduce Chinas large rice stocks.China has continued to donate rice as aid,though these amounts are paltry compared to total exports(see Table 18).It seems that Chinas rice aid donations do not include any init

227、ial economic impact assessment.Further,China only reports official aid donations in value amounts,not by volume,although many other aid donations likely go unreported.In 2024,the amount of rice China donated tripled from 2023 with Cuba as the largest recipient.On March 19,2024,NDRC announced the 202

228、5 rice MSP price for rice graded above a“3”on Chinas rice grade scale will be$353(2,560 RMB)per MT for early Indica rice,up by$2.8(20 RMB)per MT from 2024.The MSP for mid-to-late Indica rice and Japonica rice remains unchanged from 2024.Like the 2024 wheat MSP,which was announced last September,NDRC

229、 set a ceiling for the total MSP procurement amount for rice.The 2025 ceiling cap is unchanged at 50 MMT from previous years to include 20 MMT of Indica and 30 MMT of Japonica rice.The first 45 MMT can be purchased from any of the rice producing provinces,but the final 5 MMT,including 2 MMT Indica a

230、nd 3 MMT Japonica,will be allocated among provinces based on unspecified needs criteria.The ceiling is,once again,much higher than the actual MSP 38 purchase volumes in recent years.The ceiling varies year to year but is normally less than 10 MMT.Table 18.China:Rice Exports under Aid or Donation in

231、2024 Trading partner U.S.Dollar Nepal 42,001 Sri Lanka 1,124,603 Burundi 1,588,851 Chad 1,453,543 Djibouti 876,318 Egypt 306,846 Ethiopia 1,159,520 Gambia 921,671 Guinea-Bissau 932,252 Kenya 1,390,562 Malawi 1,709,488 Mali 1,386,895 Mozambique 1,711,821 Namibia 916,546 Sao Tome and Principe 528,363

232、Sierra Leone 850,412 Somalia 1,252,701 Sudan 859,804 Togo 317,422 Uganda 325,519 Burkina Faso 889,589 Zambia 638,710 Zimbabwe 1,644,928 Lesotho 280,362 South Sudan 327,317 Cuba 14,316,827 Fiji 27,472 Total 37,780,343 Source:GACC.39 Table 19.China:Rice MSP Changes 2015-2024(in RMB per MT)Year Early I

233、ndica Mid-to-Late Indica Japonica 2015 2,700 2,760 3,100 2016 2,660 2,760 3,100-40-2017 2,600 2,720 3,000-60-40-100 2018 2,400 2,520 2,600-200-200-400 2019 2,400 2,520 2,600 2020 2,420 2,540 2,600+20+20-2021 2,440 2,560 2,600+20+20-2022 2,480 2,580 2,620+40+20+20 2023 2,520 2,580 2,620+40-2024 2,540

234、 2,580 2,620+20-2025 2,560 2,580 2,620+20-Source:NDRC.40 Table 20.China:Rice Production,Supply,and Distribution Rice,Milled 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 Market Year Begins Jul 2023 Jul 2024 Jul 2025 China USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested(1000 HA)28

235、949 28949 29007 29007 0 29000 Beginning Stocks(1000 MT)106600 106600 103000 103000 0 104275 Milled Production(1000 MT)144620 144620 145275 145275 0 146000 Rough Production(1000 MT)206600 206600 207536 207536 0 208571 Milling Rate(.9999)(1000 MT)7000 7000 7000 7000 0 7000 MY Imports(1000 MT)1527 1527

236、 2100 2000 0 2100 TY Imports(1000 MT)1625 1400 2200 2000 0 2100 TY Imp.from U.S.(1000 MT)0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply(1000 MT)252747 252747 250375 250275 0 252375 MY Exports(1000 MT)1632 1632 1000 1000 0 1000 TY Exports(1000 MT)1115 1100 1000 1000 0 1000 Consumption and Residual(1000 MT)148115 148115 14

237、5875 145000 0 146000 Ending Stocks(1000 MT)103000 103000 103500 104275 0 105375 Total Distribution(1000 MT)252747 252747 250375 250275 0 252375 Yield(Rough)(MT/HA)7.1367 7.1367 7.1547 7.156 0 7.1921(1000 HA),(1000 MT),(MT/HA)MY=Marketing Year,begins with the month listed at the top of each column TY

238、=Trade Year,which for Rice,Milled begins in January for all countries.TY 2025/2026=January 2026-December 2026 OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:PSD Online Advanced Query POLICY Rural Revitalization Plan(2024-2027):Chinas State Council has recently issued the Rural Revitalization Plan(2024-2027)”,the

239、document outlines Chinas strategic plan to enhance modern agriculture and strengthen food security.China will focus on stabilizing area and improve yield to safeguard grain supply.The country will keep food planting area at approximately 1.75 billion mu(about 116.7 million hectares)and grain crops a

240、t around 1.45 billion mu(about 96.7 million hectares),and boost grain production capacity by 100 billion jin(approximately 50 MMT).The country will strengthen agricultural infrastructure and bolster agricultural science,technology,and equipment.The country will increase support for grain production

241、by ensuring grain farmers income,stabilizing grain prices and agricultural inputs.41 2025 Central Fiscal Agricultural Subsidy Policies:To support farmers,agricultural producers,and rural development,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs(MARA)has announced nine central fiscal agricultural sub

242、sidy policies for 2025:1.Farmland fertility protection subsidy 2.Agricultural machinery purchase and application subsidy 3.Wheat one spray,three defense subsidy 4.Soybean-corn strip intercropping subsidy 5.Corn,soybean,and rice subsidies 6.Farmland crop rotation and fallow subsidy 7.Agricultural soc

243、ialized services subsidy 8.Grassland grazing ban subsidy&grass-livestock balance incentive 9.Agricultural insurance premium subsidy Funds will be allocated to provinces based on regulatory factors,with provincial governments responsible for defining coverage,eligibility,and standards according to lo

244、cal conditions Tariff Rate Quotas(TRQ)On September 20,2024,the NDRC published the 2025 TRQ Application and Allocation Measures for Grain and Cotton.China tightly controls its grain trade,particularly wheat,corn,and rice,through tariff-rate quotas(TRQs)policies and its designated State Trading Enterp

245、rise(STE).China claims these mechanisms regulate imports and exports to maintain food security and stabilize domestic prices.Chinas TRQ system allocates the TRQ between the STE and non-STE importers.An STE is a government-designated entity with exclusive or special rights to conduct international tr

246、ade for specific commodities.In Chinas grain trade,COFCO Corporation is the sole STE authorized to handle grain imports and most grain exports.See Chinas Notification to the WTO Working Group on State Trading Enterprises.A State-Owned Entity(SOE)is any business owned or controlled by the government,

247、but not all SOEs have exclusive trade rights in Chinas TRQ system.While STEs are a subset of SOEs,only select SOEs(i.e.,COFCO)are legally permitted to act as STEs in grain trade.However,non-STEs may handle part of import quotas.However,SOEs still have substantial market share and account for a large

248、 portion of grain trade.China states its SOEs base their actions on commercial considerations in accordance with market-oriented principles and the rule of law.For an STE,the process for applying for a TRQ is relatively straightforward.Each year,the NDRC assigns a large portion of the TRQ directly t

249、o COFCO.The government expects COFCO to use this quota strategically,often to stabilize domestic grain prices or secure supply under state-controlled trade policies.For other importers,the process is much more complex.Every year,they must submit applications to the NDRC,usually in September or Octob

250、er,to request a portion of the TRQ.Unlike COFCO,these importers do not get automatic allocations but must apply for TRQ allocations.The NDRC evaluates applications based on import history,processing capacity,and compliance with trade rules.When an importer gets a TRQ allocation,its typically much sm

251、aller than what COFCO receives.Adding to the challenge,importers face a use-it-or-lose-it ruleif they do not import grain within a specified period,the NDRC can take back their TRQ share and give it to another 42 importer.Meanwhile,industry members have shared that Beijing keeps a close eye on priva

252、te firms to ensure they do not disrupt domestic markets.Under Chinas TRQ system,grain imports beyond the quota are subject to prohibitively high tariffs.The TRQ allocations for these grains are structured according to Table 21.The United States has challenged Chinas TRQ management,arguing that the q

253、uotas are not always allocated fairly or transparently,limiting U.S.grain exports.See DS517:China Tariff Rate Quotas for Certain Agricultural Products.The total grain TRQ and percentage allocated to COFCO remains unchanged from 2024.The 2025 measures continued to emphasize that the TRQs must be full

254、y allocated,and both the state-owned and non-state owned TRQs must be fully utilized,based on market conditions.Starting in 2020,the policy included punitive measures for companies that receive import TRQ but do not fill the entire volume.Table 21.China:2025 Tariff Rate Quota Policies for Grains Com

255、modity TRQ Volume(MT)Other Allocation State-Trading Enterprise(COFCO)Allocation In-Quota Duty Out-of-Quota Duty Corn 7,200,000 40%60%1%65%Wheat 9,636,000 10%90%1%65%Long Grain Rice 2,660,000 50%50%1%65%Short-Medium Grain Rice 2,660,000 50%50%1%65%Note:The following HS codes are subject to Chinas TRQ

256、 policies:Wheat:Durum wheat 10011000,Wheat or meslin seed excl.durum wheat 10019010,Other wheat or meslin nesoi 10019090,Wheat or meslin flour 11010000,Wheat,meal 11031100,Wheat pellets 11032010.Corn:Maize seed 10051000,Maize excl.seed 10059000,Maize(corn)flour 11022000,Maize,meal 11031300,Other wor

257、ked grains of maize(corn)nesoi 11042300.Rice,Short and Medium Grain:Other rice seed,in husk(paddy or rough)10061019,Other rice,in husk(paddy or rough)10061099,Other husked rice 10062090,Other semi-milled or wholly milled rice 10063090,Other broken long grain 10064090,Other rice flour 11023090,Other

258、rice,meal,nesoi 11031929.Rice,Long Grain:Long grain seed,in husk(paddy or rough)10061011,Long grain,in husk(paddy or rough)10061091,Husked(brown)long grain 10062010,Semi-milled or wholly milled long grain 10063010,Broken long grain 10064010,Long grain flour 11023010,Long grain,meal 11031921.43 Count

259、ries with Bilateral Phytosanitary Protocols In January 2025,GACC published the countries/regions(see Table 22)from which imports of grain and plant-sourced feed varieties are allowed into China.Table 22.China:Countries with Bilateral Phytosanitary Protocols Wheat Australia,Canada,Kazakhstan,Hungary,

260、Serbia,Mongolia,Russia,France,United Kingdom,United States,Argentina,Lithuania Corn Thailand,Laos,Argentina,Russia,Ukraine,Bulgaria,Brazil,Cambodia,South Africa,Hungary,United States,Peru,Kazakhstan,Mexico,Uruguay,Serbia,Myanmar,Kyrgyzstan Barley Australia,Canada,Denmark,Argentina,Mongolia,Ukraine,F

261、inland,Uruguay,United Kingdom,France,Kazakhstan,Russia,United States Sorghum Myanmar,United States,Australia,Argentina(for feed use)*,Nigeria(for feed use),Mexico,Uruguay,Brazil*Paddy Rice Russia Milled Rice Cambodia,India(both Basmati and Non-Basmati),Japan,Laos,Myanmar,Pakistan,Thailand,Uruguay,Vi

262、etnam,Taiwan,United States Note:Countries with Bilateral Phytosanitary Protocols are permitted to export grains*Indicates new access in 2024 *Indicates a change from previously reported information.Source:GACC.Chinas Grain Reserve Mechanism:China has established a multi-tiered and comprehensive grai

263、n reserve system,covering central reserves,local reserves,and social reserves,as regulated by Chinas Food Security Law.According to the National Food and Strategic Reserve Administration,by the end of 2024,the total capacity of standard grain warehouses nationwide exceed 700 MMT,a 36 percent increas

264、e compared to 2014.This includes grain,oilseeds,and other agricultural commodities.Low-temperature and quasi-low-temperature storage capacity reportedly reaches 200 MMT.Controlled atmosphere(CA)storage capacity stands at 55 MMT.China reports its comprehensive grain loss rate in state-owned grain res

265、erves is kept below 1 percent during the storage cycle.The wheat and rice stockpile are sufficient to meet the nations grain consumption for over one year according to statements by CCP leaders.In 36 major and medium-sized cities,local reserves remain sufficient,including Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,an

266、d Chongqing,in which the reserve capacity of processed grain is sufficient to meet the populations demand for over 15 days.China has over 6,900 emergency grain processing enterprises.The daily emergency processing capacity reaches 1.7 MMT,which can meet the grain consumption needs of the entire popu

267、lation for two days.Chinas grain reserve system includes the following:State Reserve or Central Reserve-National strategic reserve:governed by Sinograin to deal with important climate disasters,nationwide emergencies or international market prices fluctuations.No regular rotations.-National rotation

268、 reserve:rotate regularly for every three to five years.44 -Cover major grain varieties such as wheat,rice,corn and soybeans;Minimum required amount is to meet the food demand of urban population for one year.Local Reserve-Provincial Reserve:should satisfy six months demand in consumption regions an

269、d three months demand in producing regions.-Municipal Reserve -County Reserve:not compulsory.Adjustment or Temporary Reserve Managed by central or local governments to stabilize price fluctuations.Grains procured under the MSP program are stocked in the Temporary Reserve.Emergency Reserve or One-time or Special Reserve Emergent reserve or policy reserve to protect farmer welfare.Commercial Reserve Reserves in traders,processors,and retailers stocks.Urban and Rural Residents Personal Food Stocks Attachments:No Attachments