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1、 i Country Climate and Development Report:Cte dIvoire Official Use Only TOGO Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Official Use Only 2025 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Intern

2、et:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD),the International Development Association(IDA),the International Finance Corporation(IFC),and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency(MIGA),collectively known as The World

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10、arrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:p

11、ubrightsworldbank.org.Official Use Only ContentsContents ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMSABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .8 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .1010 CHAPTER 1.CHAPTER 1.DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHALLENGESDEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHALLENGES .2121 1.1.Socioeconomic context and development challen

12、ges.21 1.2.Climate change,structural transformation,and the cost of inaction.23 1.3.Defining a resilient and low carbon development pathway.28 CHAPTER 2.CHAPTER 2.CLIMATE COMMITMENTS,POLICIES AND PREPAREDNESSCLIMATE COMMITMENTS,POLICIES AND PREPAREDNESS .3030 2.1.Togos climate change commitments.30

13、2.2.Policies and institutions for climate adaptation and resilience.31 i.Adaptation&Resilience Diagnostic.33 ii.Climate and Disaster Risk Management.33 iii.Agriculture,Water&Natural Resources Management.34 iv.Network Infrastructure.34 v.Urban Development,Coastal Development,and Blue Economy.35 vi.He

14、alth,Education,and Social Protection.35 vii.Private sector readiness.36 viii.Financial sector readiness.37 2.3.Key policy options for climate governance.37 CHAPTER 3.CHAPTER 3.CLIMATE CHANGE AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONCLIMATE CHANGE AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION .3939 3.1.Scaling up climate-smart

15、solutions in agriculture and forest management.39 i.Agriculture sector context and challenges.39 ii.Promoting green agriculture and nature-based solutions.41 iii.Transitioning to a more productive,resilient,and low carbon agriculture sector.47 3.2.Making urban and coastal areas more resilient.49 i.S

16、ector context and challenges.49 ii.Boosting Resilience.51 3.3.Accelerating the transition to clean and reliable energy.54 i.Sector context and challenges.54 ii.Sector vulnerabilities and low-carbon solutions.57 3.4.Supporting climate-smart transportation.59 I.Sector context and challenges.59 ii.Redu

17、cing climate-related damages to roads and bridges.60 iii.Ensuring a sustainable development of the port of Lom.61 iv.Promoting green mobility.62 Official Use Only 3.5.Leveraging and greening digital infrastructures.64 I.Sector context and challengeS.64 ii.Digital solutions for a better resilience.64

18、 iii.Developing climate resilient and low-carbon digital infrastructures.64 3.6.Accelerating the green transition in key industries.65 I.Sector challenges and climate change.65 ii.Priority reforms and efforts in decarbonizing key industries.67 CHAPTER 4.CHAPTER 4.POVERTY,HUMAN CAPITAL,AND RESILIENCE

19、 TO SHOCKSPOVERTY,HUMAN CAPITAL,AND RESILIENCE TO SHOCKS .6868 4.1.Climate change impacts on poverty and human capital.68 i.Climate change,poverty,and gender inequality.68 ii.Climate change and human capital.70 iii.Building a more resilient,productive,and inclusive society.72 CHAPTER 5.CHAPTER 5.ASS

20、ESSING INVESTMENT NEEDS AND FINANCING OPTIONSASSESSING INVESTMENT NEEDS AND FINANCING OPTIONS .8080 5.1.Investment needs and impacts.80 5.2.Climate financing options.82 i.Current context and challenges.82 ii.Creating fiscal space for climate investments.82 iii.Mobilizing the private sector.85 iv.Ope

21、rationalizing carbon credit markets.87 v.Greening bank lending to stimulate climate smart investment.88 vi.Strengthening disaster risk financing and insurance schemes.88 ANNEXES.90 Annex 1:Modelling approach and assumptions.90 Annex 2:Togos adaptation and resilience diagnostic.103 Annex 3:Togos Comm

22、itments under the NDC and Sectoral Strategies.109 Annex 4:B-Ready scores for Togo.110 List of FiguresList of Figures Figure 1-1-Real GDP growth has been resilient,leading to improvements in living standards.22 Figure 1-2-but poverty remains elevated,with a particularly large rural-urban divide.22 Fi

23、gure 1-3-Structural transformation,with rising labor participation and decelerating fertility rates could yield significant growth dividends.23 Figure 1-4-bringing substantial welfare gains in the structural transformation scenario.23 Figure 1-5-Temperatures have significantly increased in Togo over

24、 the last few decades.24 Figure 1-6-High temperatures concentrate in the North,precipitation in the mountainous areas.24 Figure 1-7-Climate change will impact welfare mainly through labor heat stress,human capital,crop yields,and infrastructure damages.26 Official Use Only Figure 1-8-Structural tran

25、sformation would strengthen the capacity of vulnerable households to adapt to climate change.26 Figure 1-9-Lowering fertility rates is crucial for prosperity and natural resource preservation.28 Figure 1-10-Main sources of CO2 emissions are agriculture,industry,transport,waste,and land use.28 Figure

26、 2-1-Summary chart of adaptation and resilience performance of Togo across all pillars.33 Figure 3-1-Agriculture growth has been driven by expanding land usage while productivity was stagnant in Togo,contrasting with aspirational peers.40 Figure 3-2-Conversion to cropland account for a significant s

27、hare of deforestation events,particularly in the Savanes and Maritime regions.40 Figure 3-3-The effect of climate shocks could be significantly reduced by mechanization and irrigation efforts.41 Figure 3-4-Vegetables,cassava,yams,and maize yields could be most affected by climate change,while cotton

28、,groundnut,palm fruit,and Sorghum much less.41 Figure 3-5-Increasing irrigation by 5 percent of cropland per year could temper climate impacts on yields.43 Figure 3-6-Despite low irrigation rates,agriculture is a dominant source of water consumption in Togo.43 Figure 3-7-Scaling up agroforestry on s

29、uitable cropland and grassland could boost food security.45 Figure 3-8-while significantly reducing GHG emissions,opening opportunities for carbon credit financing.45 Figure 3-9-The Savanes region is in greatest need for riparian buffers.45 Figure 3-10-Benefits from riparian buffers could reach 2.8

30、percent of GDP by 2036.45 Figure 3-11-Centrale and Plateaux have the greatest potential for CBFM.47 Figure 3-12-CBFMs could sequester up to 595 Ktonnes of CO2 by 2050.47 Figure 3-13-Adaptation on top of structural transformation measures could significantly reduce the impact of climate change on agr

31、iculture.48 Figure 3-14-Built-up areas exposed to flooding in Togos cities.50 Figure 3-15-Daily average air temperature for Lom.51 Figure 3-16-Energy consumption is dominated by biomass and is largely absorbed by the residential sector.55 Figure 3-17-Access to electricity has increased with strong d

32、isparities between urban and rural areas.55 Figure 3-18-Towards a Resilient Energy Infrastructure:Togos low-cost development plan.55 Figure 3-19-Increase in renewable energy to more than 50%of installed capacity.56 Figure 3-20-Reduction of imports to 30%of the energy mix.56 Figure 3-21 Shifting the

33、energy mix towards renewables is key to lower emission intensity.57 Figure 3-22 Cost and benefit analysis of various adaptation scenarios.60 Figure 4-1-Climate change will increase the incidence of poverty,although much less in the structural transformation scenario.69 Figure 4-2-.the depth of pover

34、ty will substantially increase,meaning welfare losses of already poor households.69 Figure 4-3-.Climate shocks could slow structural transformation,as more workers stay in agriculture to produce food.69 Figure 4-4 The poor in Togo are more exposed to extreme climate events than many peers.69 Figure

35、4-5-Social safety net coverage in Togo is lower than among regional peers.73 Figure 4-6-so is the coverage of social protection programs.73 Figure 4-7-Cash transfer programs tend to better target the poor.73 Figure 5-1 Adaption measures could largely offset climate impacts,with residual effects from

36、 heat stress and reduced crop yields in the more severe scenario.80 Figure 5-2 Identified investments are expected to prevent adverse effects on poverty,including in more exposed rural areas.80 Figure 5-3 Structural transformation combined with adaptation and mitigation investments could result in a

37、 55 percent reduction in the carbon intensity.81 Official Use Only Figure 5-4-Togos green budget is mostly geared towards adaptation,which is appropriate given its exposure to shocks.83 Figure 5-5-Carbon taxation could yield significant revenues .84 Figure 5-6-and reduce emission intensity.84 List o

38、f List of TablesTables Table 1-Temperatures could rise nearly twice faster in the dry/hot scenario,compared with the wet/warm scenario.24 Table 2-Precipitation would increase in the wet/warm scenario while declining towards 2040-50 in the dry/hot scenario.24 Table 3-Key policy recommendations.37 Tab

39、le 4 Key investments recommendations.48 Table 5-Key policy recommendations.49 Table 6-Key investment and policy recommendations for urban and coastal resilience.52 Table 7-Key investment recommendations.58 Table 8-Key policy reforms for the energy sector.59 Table 9-Summary of flood damage assessment

40、s.60 Table 10-Estimated costs and benefits after CBA of sediment bypass options.62 Table 11-Key investment recommendations for the transport sector.63 Table 12-Key policy reforms for the transport sector.63 Table 13-Key investment recommendations.65 Table 14-Key policy recommendations.65 Table 15-Ke

41、y investment recommendations.67 Table 16-Key policy recommendations.67 Table 17-Policy and investment recommendations.78 Table 18-Adaptation and mitigation investments across key sectors over the period 2025-50 Error!Bookmark Error!Bookmark not defined.not defined.Table 19-Policy recommendations on

42、investment and financing.89 List of BoxesList of Boxes Box 1-Illustrating the range of possible flood damages through stochastic simulations.25 Official Use Only This report was authored by a World Bank Group Task Team led by Marc Stocker with core members including Komlan Kpotor and Justin Marie Bi

43、envenu Beleoken Sanguen,Nour Masri,Ahmed Al Qabany,Raphaela Beatrice Karlen,Meritxell Martinez,Christopher Balliet Bleziri,Daniel Valderrama Gonzalez,and Martin Aaroee Christensen.The report has benefitted from invaluable inputs from the task team including:Aissatou Ouedraogo;Akizou Bataba;Akouvi Om

44、etima Agbekoh;Ana Karla Perea Blazquez;Andre Teyssier;Antonia Grafl,Bernardo Atuesta,Bogachan Benli,Dinara Akhmetova;Djiby Thiam;Esther G.Naikal;Eva Brocard;Fatima Barry;Fred Kizito;Ibrahim El ghandour;Jia Jun Lee;Koffi Hounkpe;Laurent Damblat;Laurent Xavier Frapaise;Louis Akakpo;Maimouna Gueye;Manu

45、ela Ravina da Silva;Marek Stec;Miriam Muller;Mohamed Moustapha Sarr;Morten Larsen;Nahida Sinno;Nimonka Bayale;Nouhoum Traore;Oceane Keou;Ruslan Yemtsov;Sara Datturi;Shreya Rangarajan;Stephane Dahan;Steven David Potter;Voahirana Rajoela;Xavier Stephane Decoster;and Youssouf Traore.The team would like

46、 to extend sincere thanks to the Industrial Economics(IEc)team:Kenneth Strzepek,Brent Boehlert,Diego Castillo,Kim Smet who led the impact channel and adaptation modelling.The analysis of Nature-Based Solutions(NBS)in agriculture and forestry benefited from the technical and financial support of NBS

47、Invest,which aims to mainstream Natural Based Solutions into climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives in low-income countries.NBS Invest is funded by the Global Environment Facility through its Least Developed Countries Fund and implemented by the World Bank,in partnership with the Global Progr

48、am on Nature Based Solutions.Thanks are extended to Management and their teams on their guidance.In particular,Chakib Jenane,Jessica Wade,Olivier Buyoya and Sebnem Erol Madan,Ellysar Baroudy,Kanta Kumari Rigaud,Hans Anand Beck,Markus Kitzmuller,and Sujatha Venkat Ganeshan.The team benefited immensel

49、y from the guidance of,and is grateful to,the key peer reviewers:Craig Meisner,Hardwick Tchale,Fatima Arroyo,Lara Born,and Stephanie Brunelin.The report benefited from editorial support from John Carey.The team would like to thank the authorities for their collaboration and inputs in the preparation

50、 of this report.Official Use Only ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMSABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS A&RA&R Adaptation and Resilience AFAF Adaptation Fund ANPCANPC National Agency for Civil Protection or Agence nationale de protection civile ARCARC African Risk Capacity Insurance Company Limited BAUBAU Business-a

51、s-Usual BCEAOBCEAO Central Bank Of The West African States or Banque Centrale Des tats De lAfrique De lOuest CCDRCCDR Country Climate and Development Report CBFMCBFM Community-based Forest management CEETCEET Compagnie nergie lectrique du Togo CGECGE Computable General Equilibrium CMIP6CMIP6 Coupled

52、 Model Intercomparison Project 6 COCO2 2 Carbon Dioxide COCO2 2e e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent COVIDCOVID-1919 Coronavirus Disease Of 2019 CSOCSO Civil Society Organization DRFDRF Disaster Risk Financing DRMDRM Disaster Risk Management EUEU European Union FNEFNE National Environmental Fund or Fond Nat

53、ional pour lEnvironnement GCFGCF Green Climate Fund GCMsGCMs General Circulation Models GDP GDP Gross Domestic Product GEFGEF Global Environment Facility GHGGHG Greenhouse Gas GWhGWh Gigawatt hours IDAIDA International Development Association IFCIFC International Finance Corporation ITSITS Intellige

54、nt Transport Systems KPIsKPIs Key Performance Indicators KtonKtonnenes s Kilotonnes LIPWLIPW Labor Intensive Public Works LNGLNG Liquefied natural gas LTSLTS Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy MANAGEMANAGE Mitigation,Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium MAPAHMAPAH Min

55、istry of Agriculture,Animal Production and Fisheries or Ministre de lagriculture,de la production animale et halieutique MEFMEF Ministry of Economy and Finance or Ministre de lconomie et des Finances MERFMERF Ministry of Environment and Forest Resources or Ministre de lEnvironnement et des Ressource

56、s Forestires MPDCMPDC Ministry of Development Planning and Cooperation or Ministre de la Planification du Dveloppement et de la Coopration MSMEsMSMEs Micro,small,and medium-sized enterprises MUHRFMUHRF Ministry of Urban Development,Housing and Land or Ministre de lUrbanisme,de lhabitat et de la rfor

57、me foncire Official Use Only NBSNBS Nature-Based Solutions NDCNDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDPNDP National Development Plan PIAPIA Plateforme Industrielle dAdetikop PNPSNCPNPSNC National Non-Contributory Social Protection Program or Programme National de la Protection Sociale Non-Contribut

58、ive PPPPPP Public Private Partnerships RCPRCP Representative Concentration Pathway REDD+REDD+Programme on Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation RRSRRS Resilience Rating System RSPMRSPM Registry of individuals and households or Registre Social des Personnes et des Mnages SDAISD

59、AI Irrigated Agriculture Master Plan or Schma directeur de lagriculture irrigue SEZSEZ Special Economic Zone SLBSLB Sustainability-Linked Bonds SNPTSNPT Socit Nouvelle des Phosphates du Togo SOESOE State-Owned Enterprises SSASSA Sub-Saharan Africa SSPSSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathway TFPTFP Total Fac

60、tor Productivity UNFCCCUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WAEMUWAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union ZAAPZAAP Planned Agricultural Development Zones or Zones damnagements agricoles planifies 10 Official Use Only EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change,str

61、uctural transformation and the cost of inactionClimate change,structural transformation and the cost of inaction Togo has achieved significant development gainsTogo has achieved significant development gains over the last decadeover the last decade,but,but progress is progress is still still held ba

62、ck by held back by slow slow structural transformation and structural transformation and a a large urbanlarge urban-rural dividerural divide.Togo was able to achieve relatively rapid and stable growth over the last 10 years,averaging about 5.2 percent(2.8 percent in per capita terms),which was suppo

63、rted by economic reforms as well as rising public and private investment rates.However,limited headway was achieved in terms of structural transformation(i.e.,the process of shifting jobs towards higher productivity activities and sectors),thus holding back opportunities for faster,more inclusive,an

64、d more sustainable growth.While the expansion of port activities in Lom and the development of agro-business value chains,manufacturing and logistics services have helped the countrys economic development in recent years,limited gains in agriculture productivity,slow progress with human capital accu

65、mulation,and remaining barriers to private investment have prevented faster development.As a result,the national poverty rate has been on downward trends over the last decade,reaching 43.8 percent in 2021,but with significant and widening gaps between the capital Lom and rural communities,particular

66、ly in the North where factors of fragility and insecurity have escalated in recent years.These factors have contributed to inward migration pressures in other areas of the country.Togo would need to deliver higher and more inclusive growth than observed historicallyTogo would need to deliver higher

67、and more inclusive growth than observed historically to to achieve achieve ambitiousambitious developmentdevelopment outcomes by outcomes by 20502050.In fact,to reach upper middle-income status and reduce extreme poverty to below 10 percent over the next 25 years,annual GDP growth in Togo would need

68、 to accelerate to 6 percent on average,or 4 percent in per capita terms,which would put the country among the top 10 to 15 percent of growth performers and nearly double the pace of income per capita gains from recent trends.This development trajectory would only be possible if Togo is able to simul

69、taneously boost productivity and create more and better jobs through structural transformation.This would require diversifying the economy by leveraging comparative advantages in agriculture,light manufacturing,logistics,other trade-related and high-value services,improving connectivity infrastructu

70、res,creating a more enabling environment for private investment,upskilling the labor force,and creating more opportunities for female participation in the formal economy.More specifically,sustaining average GDP growth of 6 percent until 2050 would require ensuring that private investment reaches abo

71、ut 20 percent of GDP on average(+3 ppt from current levels),increasing total factor productivity growth by 0.8 ppt per year supported sectoral reforms and a shift in labor supply from agriculture to industry and high-value services,accelerating human capital gains by about an additional 0.2 ppt per

72、year,and boosting female labor force participation by 6 ppt.This ambitious structural transformation scenario could more than double cumulative income per capita gains and more than halve the poverty rate by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario where growth would gradually slow to 4 percent

73、(Figure ES 1).C Climate change limate change will will significantly significantly impact impact Togos developmentTogos development tratrajectoryjectory,affecting,affecting disproportionately disproportionately vulnerable vulnerable populationspopulations.Heat waves have already become more widespre

74、ad and severe,rainfall seasons more uncertain,and occurrences of extreme precipitation more frequent.These climate pressures are projected to intensify over time.In a business-as-usual scenario where the structure of the economy would remain broadly unchanged and the labor force would remain predomi

75、nantly employed in low productivity and informal jobs in agriculture and services,simulations suggest that damages from climate change could result over the next 25 years in a loss of average income per capita ranging between 6.1 percent and 12.2 percent depending on climate scenarios.In these scena

76、rios,the poverty headcount could rise by between 1.8 and 3.1 percentage points as a direct result of climate shocks,pushing between one-quarter to half a million people into poverty every year as a result of climate shocks.Considering the specific impact channels modeled in this report,1 rising temp

77、eratures would be a dominant driver of expected losses in welfare,followed by reduced yields for rainfed crops,slower human capital accumulation,and damages from more intense urban,coastal and inland flooding.Internal migration from more exposed rural areas,1 The impact of climate shocks was assesse

78、d by using a large-scale computable general equilibrium model capturing direct climate impacts on productivity,labor,and capital,as well as indirect effects through production linkages,factor substitution,and trade.Climate shocks are evaluated through to separate biophysical models that convert chan

79、ges in grid-level climate data into biophysical shocks for each of the ten impact channels considered in this CCDR,including through crop-specific yields;livestock revenues;damages to infrastructure from inland,urban and coastal flooding;heat stress on labor productivity and learning outcomes;and im

80、pact on labort supply of incidence of vector-borne,water-borne,and temperature-related diseases on labor supply.11 Official Use Only including the Savanes and Northern Kara where significant cropland surfaces could be lost to climate change,and from low-lying coastal areas due to increased coastal e

81、rosion and flooding,could put additional strains on resources in host communities,leading to heightened competition for water,infrastructure,and social services,which could feed social strife and conflict.Faster Faster structural transformation structural transformation will be needed to will be nee

82、ded to boost boost economic opportunities for economic opportunities for all,all,but also but also toto strengthen strengthen resilience resilience to climate to climate shocksshocks.By reducing the share of the workforce exposed to heat stress and boosting agriculture productivity through improved

83、land management,irrigation,and mechanization,and by ensuring a transition to more productive services and manufacturing jobs in urban areas,structural transformation can be a powerful tool to reduce climate change impacts on livelihoods and poverty.A faster reduction in fertility rates and slower po

84、pulation growth could also ease pressures on land,water,and other natural resources that provide ecosystem services and help regulate the climate.Simulations suggest that the impact of climate shocks could be reduced by about 20 percent in this structural transformation scenario,ranging between-4.8

85、and-10.3 percent of GDP.As a result,the impact on income per capita and poverty could be less than one third of that in the business-as-usual scenario(Figure ES 2).This highlights how priority reforms to stimulate structural transformation are expected to play crucial role not only in raising Togos

86、growth potential but also improving its resilience to climate change.This combined with adaptation and mitigation measures identified in this CCDR could largely offset climate impacts even in the most severe scenario and significantly reduce emissions intensity.While While structural transformation

87、is essential structural transformation is essential to strengthening to strengthening growthgrowth andand resilience,resilience,it also needs to it also needs to be be more more inclusive inclusive to maximize impact on poverty reductionto maximize impact on poverty reduction.In Togo,where poverty a

88、nd food insecurity remain entrenched,boosting economic opportunities for smallholder farmers,improving education and healthcare outcomes in rural areas,prioritizing inclusive urban planning and equitable access to resources and services and creating more and better jobs in urban-based industries and

89、 services are crucial to ensure broad-based gains and alleviate fragility risks.FigurFigure ES e ES 1 1 Structural transformation,higher Structural transformation,higher labor labor participationparticipation and lower fertility and lower fertility rates rates could yield large could yield large gro

90、wth dividendsgrowth dividends Figure ES Figure ES 2 2 and would also mean greater resilience and would also mean greater resilience to climate shocks to climate shocks GDP growth and driversGDP growth and drivers Average per capita growth over 2024Average per capita growth over 2024-5050 Source:Worl

91、d Bank Source:World Bank Notes:Results from simulations with the World Banks Mitigation,Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium(MANAGE-WB)model.2 For the purpose of the analysis in this CCDR,and in line with guidance to ensure comparability across countries,climate scenarios were

92、 aggregated into wet/warm and dry/hot scenarios to assess vulnerabilities and adaptation options.2 The World Banks Mitigation,Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium(MANAGE-WB)model accounts for both direct effects of climate change through damage vectors on productivity,labor su

93、pply and the capital stock and indirect effects accrue from various channels such as production linkages,factor substitution and intersectoral mobility,the fiscal framework,and trade.12 Official Use Only Defining a more resilient and lowDefining a more resilient and low-carbon development pathway ca

94、rbon development pathway With the right policy responses,challenges associated with climate change With the right policy responses,challenges associated with climate change couldcould be turned into development be turned into development opportunities for Togo.opportunities for Togo.While climate ch

95、ange poses a significant threat to Togos development,particularly for its agriculture sector and most vulnerable populations,a multi-pronged strategy that leverages innovation,green infrastructure development,climate-proofed social services,and the promotion of climate-conscious businesses could hel

96、p turn threats into opportunities.In agriculture,improving access to drought-resistant crop varieties,developing smart irrigation,promoting nature-based solutions like agroforestry and better land management and conservation could boost yields while strengthening resilience and helping to decarboniz

97、e the sector.Accelerating the shift to renewable energy sources like solar,hydro and wind power will not only reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also provide reliable and clean energy for rural communities,fostering economic activity and promoting sustainable development.Upgrading existing transpor

98、t,digital,urban,and coastal infrastructures will also be key to ensure long-term resilience and to minimize future damages.Climate-proofing social services would require expanding social protection programs in the form of social safety nets for vulnerable communities,investing in robust early warnin

99、g and disaster response systems,and strengthening education and healthcare infrastructures and training systems to address climate-related challenges.A A climateclimate-conscious conscious development development strategy strategy requires building on synergies requires building on synergies and com

100、plementarities between and complementarities between sectoral sectoral policies in order to policies in order to simultaneously simultaneously boost prboost productoductivityivity,job creation and,job creation and the the resilienceresilience of vulnerable populationsof vulnerable populations.For in

101、stance,scaling up climate-smart and nature-based solutions in agriculture supports productivity,food security,and carbon sequestration,providing a strong foundation for sustainable rural livelihoods that limits rural-to-urban migration pressures.This complements efforts to ensure sustainable urban a

102、nd coastal development while mitigating risks from coastal erosion and flooding.Ensuring universal access to clean and reliable energy is also critical to power agriculture,to attract new manufacturing and higher value-added services in urban centers,and to support digital solutions for a low-carbon

103、 economy.Similarly,a more resilient and greener transport sector can help lower emissions while strengthening local,regional and global value chains,and help develop secondary cities that reduce the urban pressures under the Grand Lome area.Efforts to enhance human capital,especially among the youth

104、,are also critical to support more and better paying jobs by matching skills with the demand of emerging sectors and technologies,including those needed for Togos green transition.A higher level of human capital is in turn conducive to social progress,stronger social cohesion and resilience,and redu

105、ced fertility rate,all enablers of structural transformation.Finally,robust climate governance and improved access to climate-related financing can help mobilize critical investments across these sectors while fostering transparency and accountability for impactful delivery.If implemented correctly,

106、priority reforms and investments could help turn threats from climate change into opportunities for faster development.Here are the key elements of that strategyHere are the key elements of that strategy:1.1.Scale up climateScale up climate-smart and naturesmart and nature-based solutions in agricul

107、turebased solutions in agriculture The agricultural sector could make a more substantial contribution to Togos structural transformation with necessary The agricultural sector could make a more substantial contribution to Togos structural transformation with necessary productivityproductivity-enhanc

108、ing investments and efforts to reduce exposure to natural hazards.enhancing investments and efforts to reduce exposure to natural hazards.Despite its relatively low and declining share in GDP,agriculture still occupies 40 percent of the workforce in Togo and remains the main source of income for 60

109、percent of rural workers and up to 70 percent of those living under the poverty line.Yet stagnant productivity traps most farmers in subsistence agriculture with low incomes and limited capacity to invest in more resilient practices or to adjust to shocks.In the absence of decisive measures,agricult

110、ural development in Togo could be severely hampered by heat-related stress,changes in rainfall patterns,climate-related crop diseases,and soil erosion.These impacts could reduce the sectors production capacity by up to 12.3 percent over the next 25 years.Greening the agriculture sector and improving

111、 water management are critical to boost resilieGreening the agriculture sector and improving water management are critical to boost resilience and decarbonize nce and decarbonize production in the face of climate change.production in the face of climate change.Supporting the adoption of climate-smar

112、t practices could significantly transform Togos agriculture sector by increasing productivity,creating jobs,enhancing resilience to climate shocks,and ensuring food security.Key strategies include green mechanization and irrigation,organic fertilizers,and heat-13 Official Use Only resilient crops,wh

113、ich could mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on yields.To attract private investments needed to transform the agriculture sector,it will be crucial to develop customized financial instruments,improve access to technology,streamline regulatory processes,and better leverage public-private

114、 partnerships.Land tenure security will also need to be strengthened to encourage smallholder farmers to invest in their land,improve their living conditions and preserve natural resources.Scaling up nature-based solutions,and notably agroforestry,appears particularly promising to confront climate c

115、hange challenges for smallholder farmers in Togo.It offers prospects of significant gains in agricultural productivity and in ecosystem services that reduce the need for costly and sometimes environmentally damaging inputs.In addition,its carbon sequestration potential could open the door to financi

116、ng options that could help scale up necessary investments.Table ES Table ES 1 1 -Development pathways,priority areas,and recommended actions for greener,more resilient,and Development pathways,priority areas,and recommended actions for greener,more resilient,and inclusive development in Togoinclusiv

117、e development in Togo HIGH HIGH LEVEL OBJECTIVELEVEL OBJECTIVE PRIORITY AREASPRIORITY AREAS KEY RKEY RECOMMENDECOMMENDATIONSATIONS ACCELERATE STRUCTURAL ACCELERATE STRUCTURAL TRANSTRANSFORMATION FORMATION IN A IN A CHANGING CHANGING CLIMATE CLIMATE Scale up climate-smart and nature-based solutions i

118、n agriculture Support the adoption of climate-smart practices and inputs Promote agroforestry,riparian buffers,and other nature-based solutions Increase access to sustainable irrigation and develop inland valley swamps Support sustainable urban and coastal developments Develop an urban planning code

119、 that incorporates climate risks and ensures the resilience of cities to disaster and climate-related risks Improve solid waste management through the use of sanitary landfills and recycling Implement a dynamic adaptive policy to tackle coastal degradation Ensure universal access to more reliable an

120、d clean energy Incorporate gas into the energy mix as a transitional measure away from more polluting energy sources Implement reforms and make strategic investments to boost solar and hydroelectric power Improve access to clean cooking solutions and management of biomass Develop greener and more re

121、silient transportation Increase the share of paved roads by 50 percent,build to higher standards and improve maintenance capacity Phase out fuel subsidies,introduce Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS),and promote electric mobility Create a sediment bypass around the Port of Lom Promote clean industri

122、al development Implement a comprehensive strategy to address marine pollution from the release of tailings from phosphate mining Use the planned exploitation of hard-rock phosphate deposits to convert to electrified or hydrogen-fueled equipment Develop low clinker content or blast furnace cement and

123、 promote demand for low-carbon cement products Develop an enabling environment for private sector innovation and the promotion of green investments Reform investment promotion,FDI,entrepreneurship and PPP policies to mainstream climate adaptation and mitigation Create a more supportive policy framew

124、ork for research and development(R&D)in green technologies Expand green credit and equity financing options,through inter alia the introduction of a new taxonomy to identify climate-smart activities BOOST THE HUMAN CAPITAL BOOST THE HUMAN CAPITAL AND RESILIENCE OF AND RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE POPULA

125、TIONS VULNERABLE POPULATIONS Improve learning outcomes in sustainable schools Construct climate-smart school infrastructure and use vegetation to reduce heat stress Reinforce teacher training and curricula on climate-related issues Accelerate digitalization in the education sector Prevent climate-re

126、lated health threats Ensure rapid progress towards universal health coverage Improve the quality of health and nutrition services,particularly for the most exposed segments of society Ensure climate-adaptive measures for health infrastructure in climate-sensitive areas Develop a robust and shock-res

127、ponsive social protection system Operationalize a dynamic social registry with up-to-date socio-economic household data Expand access to productive safety net programs to strengthen the resilience of poor households Institutionalize a shock response program to support households in the event of a cl

128、imate hazard 14 Official Use Only IMPROVE CLIMATE IMPROVE CLIMATE GOVERNANCE AND ACCESS GOVERNANCE AND ACCESS TO FINANCETO FINANCE Develop a clear strategy and institutional framework Strengthen institutional capacity through better governance and coordination Fully integrate climate objectives into

129、 public investment management Make the tax structure greener and consider the introduction of carbon taxation Boost access to climate-related financing Maximize the full range of concessional and semi-concessional financing instruments Operationalize the regulatory and institutional framework for ca

130、rbon credits Create the capacity to issue sustainability-linked sovereign debt instruments.Taken together,investments identified in this CCDR to boost climate adaptation and mitigation in the agriculture Taken together,investments identified in this CCDR to boost climate adaptation and mitigation in

131、 the agriculture sector could reduce climate impacts by at least 50 percent.sector could reduce climate impacts by at least 50 percent.These investments are estimated to amount to US$1.9 billion in present value term over the next 25 years,which would require average annual investments of about 0.9

132、percent of GDP until 2035 and 0.451 percent of GDP from 2036 to 2050.These investments will have synergies with other sectors,notably in education and social protection,where re-skilling and preparation of the workforce for green jobs will complement investments in new technologies.However,they woul

133、d be more than offset by gains in production capacity,incomes,and food security,which should largely compensate the impact of climate shocks in a wet/warm scenario and reduce their effect by more than 50 percent under a dry/hot scenario.The carbon intensity of the sector would also decrease by an es

134、timated 75 percent between now and 2050.Greening Greening agriculture production and value chains will help support international competitiveness.agriculture production and value chains will help support international competitiveness.Climate regulation among countries representing major market oppor

135、tunities for Togo are likely to increasingly limit access for agricultural products not meeting certain forest and land preservation standards.Similarly,the potential for climate financing in agriculture largely relies on measurable reductions in emissions,including through better land and forest ma

136、nagement.Nature-based solutions like agroforestry,riparian buffers or community-based forest management are particularly promising in this regard but should be accompanied by improved capacity to undertake reliable and transparent environmental and emission impact assessments.Similarly,developing su

137、stainable supply chains that prioritize renewable energy,use local sourcing and minimize transportation distances could contribute to a lower carbon footprint,while the adoption of waste-to-energy technologies,converting agricultural waste into biogas or bio-fertilizers would also help reduce emissi

138、ons.This could have the added benefit of helping boost access to international markets amid increasingly demanding low-carbon commitments.2.2.Support sustainable urban and coastal developments Support sustainable urban and coastal developments Climate Climate pressures are heightening challenges ass

139、ociated with rapid urbanizationpressures are heightening challenges associated with rapid urbanization and coastal developmentsand coastal developments,which,which play aplay an n important important role in structural transformationrole in structural transformation.By 2050,it is projected that abou

140、t 9.3 million people will live in urban areas in Togo,corresponding to more than 60 percent of the population,up from 45.6 percent currently.Climate pressures are set to amplify spatial imbalances and geographical disparities between rural and urban areas and between northern and southern parts of t

141、he country,further intensifying fragilities and causing population displacements.As demographic pressures intensify,major urban and coastal areas in Togo will be increasingly exposed to flood risks,with an average of 3 to 6 percent of built-up areas currently exposed to 100-year floods.By 2050,flood

142、 damages in urban areas could increase by 5 to 11 percent,creating significant disruptions to livelihoods and economic activity.Moreover,southern coastal agglomerations,where most of the urban population resides,are highly vulnerable to growing coastal erosion and sea level rise,which could lead to

143、permanent damage,in addition to the repairable damage from periodic floods and storm surges.Weaknesses in water supply and sanitation systems and urban heat island effects will also amplify climate vulnerabilities,while inadequate solid waste management is a major source of urban Greenhouse Gas(GHG)

144、emissions and flood risks.The next decade will be critical for determining the development pathway of cities and coastal areas.The next decade will be critical for determining the development pathway of cities and coastal areas.Once urban sprawl has occurred and coastal erosion becomes pervasive,rev

145、ersing the trend is extremely challenging as natural risks would be locked in.A new urban planning code that incorporates climate risks and ensures greater resilience of cities to disaster-and climate-related risks should be implemented,including regulations for the use of land,buildings,or other st

146、ructures.Improving solid waste management through the use of sanitary landfills and recycling would help reduce urban emissions,while also helping to reduce water pollution and flood risks.A dynamic adaptive policy to tackle coastal degradation is also needed to reduce coastal erosion,with a strong

147、role to be played by the private sector.More sustainable funding mechanisms for local governments,such as increasing transfers or using 15 Official Use Only performance-based grants,could incentivize much-needed local action.Diversifying water resources and increasing the efficiency of distribution

148、networks will also help reduce the energy intensity of water supply services while improving water availability.Investments identified in the CCDR to support sustainable urban and coastal development are estimated to reach about US$2.07 billion by 2050 in present value,which would require average an

149、nual investments of about 0.78 percent of GDP until 2035 and 0.8 percent of GDP from 2036 to 2050.These are however expected towould bring large economic and environmental co-benefits.3.3.EnsurEnsure e universal access to universal access to more more reliablereliable and cleanand clean energyenergy

150、 The energy sector will play a The energy sector will play a key key role in Togos transition to a more role in Togos transition to a more prosperous,prosperous,resilient and lower carbon economy.resilient and lower carbon economy.Significant progress has been achieved in raising access to electrici

151、ty in recent years.But this has occurred mostly in urban areas,as in rural areas,only a quarter of the population has access to electricity.As the government seeks to reach universal access by 2028,the demand on the interconnected grid is expected to increase by 250 percent by 2035 and by 500 percen

152、t over the next 25 years.This will require major expansions of production and distribution capabilities,along with efforts to boost decentralized solutions in remote areas.Supporting studies to mitigate losses on the network of the national electricity company(Compagnie nergie lectrique du Togo,CEET

153、)and in public buildings will help reduce demand pressure and optimize resource use.Reinforcing and upgrading regional integration is also crucial to create a more resilient and interconnected energy network,augmenting the production capacity of importing countries like Togo,and ensuring a stable su

154、pply of natural gas through the West African Gas Pipeline(WAGP).The exposure of power infrastructures to climate hazards,combined with weak sector governance and performance,are exacerbating challenges in meeting growing demand while transitioning to cleaner and cheaper energy.Beyond the need to sca

155、le up renewable energy sources,climate mitigation efforts in the energy sector will require improvements in the biomass sector,which currently accounts for 75 percent of energy consumption in Togo.Current practices in this area are causing the overexploitation of forests,adversely affecting natural

156、ecosystems and plant and animal biodiversity.Inefficient cookstoves consume large amounts of wood fuel and are also major sources of atmospheric pollution.Universal access to modern energy cooking services(MECS)3 by 2050 could reduce biomass use by shifting away from wood and charcoal and cut greenh

157、ouse gas emissions by about 90.5 percent compared to a 2020 baseline.Efforts to redEfforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels should be combined with improved access to clean and stable energy,and uce reliance on fossil fuels should be combined with improved access to clean and stable energy,and wit

158、h a more sustainable management of natural resources.with a more sustainable management of natural resources.Gas could serve as a bridge to a cleaner energy system by facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources through balancing intermittent supply and stabilizing the grid.However,Togos

159、 integration of LNG into its energy mix risks creating a dependency due to the sunk costs of LNG infrastructure,potentially locking the country into natural gas use beyond its transitional role.As hydrocarbon reserves are depleted in neighboring countries,Togo should aim to diversify its energy sect

160、or.To achieve a significant expansion of solar energy,Togo will need to pursue a series of sectoral reforms and strategic planning of large-scale projects,which will likely become a source of cost-effective and climate-friendly renewable energy.Hydroelectric power is also a crucial element in Togos

161、clean energy strategy,with the dual objectives of providing a reliable and sustainable electricity supply and of improving water management to counter the negative impacts of climate change.Furthermore,a revised national energy strategy should prioritize grid extension and densification,especially i

162、n rapidly growing peri-urban areas.Reaching universal access to clean and efficient cooking would also require significant investments,but those would be lower than the expected gains in welfare and the reductions in emissions over time.Establishing performance targets for cookstoves efficiency and

163、emissions,creating cookstove testing facilities and labeling schemes,and tracking progress to identify and overcome barriers are some of the low hanging fruits to move towards cleaner cooking technologies.Overall,identified investment needs for climate adaptation and mitigation in the energy sector

164、are estimated to reach a cumulative US$3.881 billion by 2050 in net present value,requiring average annual investments of about 2.22 percent of GDP until 2035 and 1.25 percent of GDP from 2036 to 2050.These investments,however,should be partly compensated by the economic empowerment for other sector

165、s as well as the reduced emission intensity of the energy mix by around 60 percent from now till 2050.3 This refers to a household context that has met the standards of Tier 4 or higher across all six measurement attributes of the Multi-Tier Framework:convenience,(fuel)availability(a proxy for relia

166、bility),safety,affordability,efficiency,and exposure(a proxy for health related to exposure to pollutants from cooking activities).16 Official Use Only The private sector The private sector will need towill need to play a determinant role in enhancing the overall efficiency and financial performance

167、 play a determinant role in enhancing the overall efficiency and financial performance of the energy sectorof the energy sector.As the CEET grapples with challenges related to operational efficiency and financial viability,strategic partnerships with private entities are indispensable.These collabor

168、ations facilitate the injection of capital,the introduction of innovative technologies,and the improvement of management practices.The synergy between the private sectors dynamism and CEET can lead to more sustainable energy solutions and help stabilize the financial foundation of the energy sector.

169、This partnership not only drives progress towards universal electricity access but also supports the governments efforts to ensure that state-owned enterprises become more accountable and financially viable.By leveraging private sector expertise and investment,Togo can better navigate the complexiti

170、es of modernizing its energy sector and enhancing its economic impact.4.4.Develop greener and more resilient Develop greener and more resilient transport sectortransport sector Togos maiTogos main transport assets,namely roads,bridges,and port facilities,are significantly exposed to natural hazards.

171、n transport assets,namely roads,bridges,and port facilities,are significantly exposed to natural hazards.At present,almost 20 percent of the total length of roads could be damaged during frequent flooding(with a flood return frequency of ten years)and up to 40 percent under extreme circumstances(wit

172、h a flood return frequency of 100 years).The wider economic cost of flood-induced damages to roads and bridges is estimated at US$12.1 million every year,95 percent of which is due to traffic disruptions associated with reduced accessibility.Depending on climate scenarios,these costs could increase

173、by between 40 and 250 percent over the next 25 years.Moreover,the Port of Lom,which is one of Togos most valuable assets,is increasingly impacted by coastal erosion,while also being a cause of that erosion.In fact,a strong natural eastward drift of sediment along the coastline has been interrupted b

174、y the construction of the Port of Lom,leading to significant erosion on the east side of the port and sediment accumulation on the west side and along the ports access channel.Sea level rise will amplify coastal erosion,with effects becoming increasingly visible after 2040.Targeted adaptation and mi

175、tigation interventions could help prevent climateTargeted adaptation and mitigation interventions could help prevent climate-related disruptions to transport related disruptions to transport infrastructure and infrastructure and alsoalso cap emissions.cap emissions.Increasing the share of paved road

176、s by 50 percent and building to higher standards could potentially reduce climate-related road network disruptions by half by 2050.Building capabilities for effective road maintenance is also crucial to maximize the benefits of investments over time.Upgrading drainage systems and elevating road surf

177、aces across the most exposed road links could be cost-effective measures as well,helping to prevent large-scale disruptions with minimal investments.Considered as a quick win in addressing urgent short-term priority,the adaptation of critical links across the country to protect key road links from e

178、vents as severe and rare as 1,000-year flood could be regarded as cost effective investments to be pursued by the government.These investments could partially be financed through a phasing out of fuel subsidies,which could also encourage lower emissions transportation.Other mitigation measures inclu

179、de improving the quality of gasoline and diesel fuels,introducing Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS),promoting electric mobility,and rehabilitating railways and freight movement.Meanwhile,a sediment bypass around the Port of Lom,involving the dredging of the port access channel and the transfer of s

180、ediments to the erosion zone to the east,could be the most effective option for minimizing coastal erosion,and is also preferred in terms of socio-economic acceptance.The past decade has seen substantial public spending to support the governments road infrastructure program,with public investment in

181、 the sector averaging 2.5 percent of GDP per year.Priority investments needed to support a more resilient road sector with lower emissions and address coastal erosion around the Port of Lom are conservatively estimated to reach about US$1.6 billion by 2050 in net present value,requiring average annu

182、al investments of about 0.78 percent of GDP until 2035 and 0.5 percent of GDP from 2036 to 2050.5.5.ScaleScale-up up clean industrial developmentclean industrial development and and innovationinnovation Togo aspires to accelerate industrial development,which will require Togo aspires to accelerate i

183、ndustrial development,which will require leveraging morleveraging more private sector investments to e private sector investments to improve improve efficiency efficiency and and reducreduce e the the environmental footprint.environmental footprint.Togos industrial sector is still concentrated in ex

184、tractive industries,most notably phosphate production and cement works.It also has manufacturing industries in areas such as food,textiles and clothing,wood,chemicals,and metals,with a large untapped potential for more and better jobs.Developing a more attractive environment for foreign direct inves

185、tments,which have been relatively muted over the last decade,could play a critical role in leveraging the potential of these sectors and in fostering technological transfers,driving innovation,and spreading cutting-edge practices needed to boost productivity and job creation in a 17 Official Use Onl

186、y climate conscious way.Togo is already providing significant safeguards for foreign investments,but to attract new projects and broaden their benefits it should continue to improve access to markets,energy,and infrastructure,ensure strategic planning around ambitious sectoral objectives,and stimula

187、te domestic investments in associated value chains.At the same time,Togo could facilitate local innovation and reduce its reliance on imported technologies by strengthening public-private partnerships,creating a more supportive policy framework for research and development(R&D)in green technologies,

188、and carrying out targeted investments in technical education and vocational training.ClimateClimate-proofing proofing p phosphate and cement sectors are hosphate and cement sectors are critical critical to the nexus between industrial to the nexus between industrial competitiveness competitiveness a

189、nd and environmental sustainabilityenvironmental sustainability.Actions to decarbonize their activities are a key component of their future competitiveness and access to international markets amid increasingly stringent national and global emissions reduction commitments.For instance,EUs Carbon Bord

190、er Adjustment mechanism seeks to ensure that imports of key industrial products like steel,fertilizer,cement,or aluminum meet certain emissions standards in order to prevent carbon leakage thus putting domestic industries at a competitive disadvantage.Energy audits of existing production facilities,

191、together with the selection of more energy efficient technologies,could help guide the decarbonization strategy of these sectors.The potential exploitation of hard-rock phosphate deposits offers an opportunity to convert to electrified or hydrogen-fueled equipment with low emissions.In parallel,urge

192、nt action must be taken to rein in the significant maritime pollution caused by the release of tailings from the phosphate industry.In the cement sector,lowering its carbon footprint through reduced clinker content or blast furnace cement should go hand in hand with efforts to expand demand for low-

193、carbon cement products,which currently remains low.6.6.Boost human capital and Boost human capital and the the resilience of vulnerable populations resilience of vulnerable populations In the absence of robust In the absence of robust adaptation measures,climate change could slow poverty reduction e

194、fforts and adversely adaptation measures,climate change could slow poverty reduction efforts and adversely impact human capital developmentimpact human capital development with lasting consequences on future generationswith lasting consequences on future generations.Under the more benign wet/warm sc

195、enario,climate shocks could increase the poverty rate by 1.8 percentage points by 2050,while in the more acute dry/hot scenario,the increase could reach 3.1 percentage points,with up to half a million people falling into poverty as a result of climate shocks every year.Challenges to human capital de

196、velopment will also intensify,as learning opportunities and health of exposed populations could be significantly impacted,with negative consequences on productivity and earning levels of future generations.Togo is already grappling with high learning poverty(82 percent),which diminishes adaptation p

197、otential and readiness for structural transformation,and could deepen even further because of climate pressures.If left unmitigated,rising temperatures could potentially reduce knowledge acquisition by between 10 to 20 percent over the next 25 years,and school and education infrastructures remain hi

198、ghly exposed to climate shocks such as flooding and high winds.The social protection system currently suffers from pervasive fragmentation and weak coverage of the poor and vulnerable,directing the bulk of resources towards better off formal sector workers.Climate change could also exacerbate fragil

199、ity risks and security challenges in the North,increasing competition over diminishing resources and intensifying migration.The hard-won gains of social and public health programs could also be threatened by an increased incidence of climate-related diseases,putting additional pressure on already un

200、derfunded social protection programs.To To prevent adverse impacts on human capital prevent adverse impacts on human capital and build a more resilient,productive,and build a more resilient,productive,and inclusive society,climateand inclusive society,climate-smart reforms and investmentssmart refor

201、ms and investments will will need to be prioritizeneed to be prioritized d in in the the coming yearscoming years.While the Government should continue pursuing investments that help to build resilience through education,health,and social protection programs,it should also target specific reforms and

202、 investments to address climate change impacts on its vulnerable population.In this regard,productive safety net programs play an important role in strengthening the resilience of poor households and better preparing them for climate and other shocks,while contributing to higher productivity of futu

203、re generations and greater social cohesion.The vision of the new flagship safety net program adopted by the Government needs to be translated into concrete actions in instituting,financing and launching it at scale.To improve learning opportunities for students across the territory,priorities should

204、 include the construction of climate-smart school infrastructure and the use of vegetation to reduce heat stress.These measures should be complemented by adjusted curricula,reinforced teacher training,and accelerated digitalization in the education sector.Finally,ensuring rapid progress towards univ

205、ersal health coverage,the provision of quality services,particularly for the most exposed segments of society as well as ensuring climate-adaptive measures for health facilities,could limit the impact of climate change on public health.The costs of priority measures to support the 18 Official Use On

206、ly adaptation of vulnerable populations are estimated to reach a cumulative US$3.6 billion by 2050 in net present value,which would require average annual investments of about 1.17 percent of GDP until 2035 and 0.85 percent of GDP from 2036 to 2050,which should prevent the loss of human capital to c

207、limate change.IdentifyingIdentifying priority priority investment needsinvestment needs and their impactand their impact Addressing climate change while meeting broader development needs requires selectivity in climate actions as well Addressing climate change while meeting broader development needs

208、 requires selectivity in climate actions as well as innovative financing solutions.as innovative financing solutions.The critical climate-specific investments addressing climate adaptation and mitigation across the key sectors described above are estimated to cost about US$13,925 million in net pres

209、ent value over the next 25 years,corresponding to average annual investments of about 6.23 percent of GDP until 2035 and 4.1 percent of GDP thereafter(Table ES 2).If financing for such investments could be found,the adverse impact of climate change could be largely avoided under wet/warm conditions

210、and be reduced by about 60 percent under dry/hot conditions(Figure ES 3),while reducing GHG emissions intensity by 55 percent by 2050(Figure ES 4).This illustrates that combining structural transformation with key adaptation and mitigation measures can help ensure faster development,while boosting c

211、limate resilience and emission reductions.Table ES Table ES 2 2 Priority iPriority investment needs for adaptatnvestment needs for adaptation and mitigation in key sectors ion and mitigation in key sectors over the period 2024over the period 2024-5050 Investment needs by 2035Investment needs by 2035

212、 Investment needs by 2050Investment needs by 2050 Cumulative,Cumulative,Present ValuePresent Value USUS$Average,Average,%GDP%GDP Cumulative,Cumulative,Present ValuePresent Value USUS$Average,Average,%GDP%GDP Agriculture,including Agriculture,including the the following priority following priority in

213、vestments:investments:US$1,160MUS$1,160M 0.0.9 9 US$1,926MUS$1,926M 0.40.4 Develop a national agroforestry initiative,using ecosystem services to help boost agricultural productivity and prevent land degradation.Promote the use of climate-smart agriculture practices and technologies to strengthen re

214、silience and reduce the carbon footprint.Boost access to sustainable irrigation systems that integrate effective surface water management and optimize water use for agriculture.Urban and coastal development,including Urban and coastal development,including thethe following priority investmentsfollow

215、ing priority investments US$1,093MUS$1,093M 0.0.8 8 US$2,068MUS$2,068M 0.80.8 Implement a resilient and compact urban development compact that ensures better land management and reduces the risk of urban sprawl.Carry-out a resilient drainage and flood protection program for coastal and secondary cit

216、ies and reduce heat-related climate risks.Strengthen coastal development and management,including through the implementation of nature-based solutions to reduce coastal erosion.E Energy,including nergy,including the the following priority investments:following priority investments:US$2,984MUS$2,984M

217、 2.22.2 US$3,885MUS$3,885M 1.21.2 Boost access to electricity by supporting resilient grid extension in peri-urban areas and hybrid mini grids and solar kits in rural areas Develop cost-effective and climate-friendly renewable energy sources through the strategic planning of large-scale photovoltaic

218、 projects.Strengthen reforestation efforts and biogas supply capacity for bioenergy production.T Transport,including ransport,including the the following priority following priority investments:investments:US$1,008MUS$1,008M 0.0.8 8 US$1,666MUS$1,666M 0.50.5 Establish an Intelligent Transport System

219、s(ITS)with digital services and automatic traffic management to cap emissions and congestions.Boost the road network resilience by upgrading key links for protection against 1,000-year floods.Support the sustainable development of the Port of Lom by developing a sediment bypass combined with regular

220、 dredging of the port access.D Digitaligital,including,including the the following priority following priority investments:investments:US$115MUS$115M 0.0.1 1 US$136MUS$136M 0.010.01 Expand climate-proof and resilient ICT infrastructures in high-risk(remote)areas;and perform periodic climate risk ass

221、essment.Roll out critical digital public services to ensure the administration continuity in a disaster and set up disaster recovery centers in low-risk areas.Phosphate and other industriesPhosphate and other industries,including,including the the following priority investments:following priority in

222、vestments:US$379MUS$379M 0.0.3 3 US$625MUS$625M 0.20.2 Reduce marine pollution from phosphate production by implementing water quality testing and constructing settling basins for slurry treatment.Develop a robust monitoring and reporting system to track progress of private sector initiatives in cli

223、mate mitigation and adaptation.Human capital,including Human capital,including the the following prfollowing priority investments:iority investments:US$1,756MUS$1,756M 1.1.2 2 US$3,619MUS$3,619M 0.0.9 9 Implement mandatory green building standards for new education and health sector constructions to

224、 boost resilience.Ensure that pupils have access to digital content to develop new learning opportunities and limit disruptions during climate shocks.Adopt and implement a Preparedness Plan for food and nutrition security(FNS).Strengthen the resilience of poor and vulnerable households by operationa

225、lizing a dynamic social registry with georeferenced and hazard data,expanding access to flagship safety net program to all poor,and institutionalizing shock response program to those affected by climate shocks.Total inveTotal investment needsstment needs US$US$8,4958,495MM 6.26.2 US$US$13,13,925925M

226、M 4.14.1 Source:World Bank Note:Priority investments are identified based on their viability and expected impact.An investment“viability”is computed by averaging scores on urgency,implementation period,and operability.Expected impact is computed by averaging scores on development co-benefits and Imp

227、act on the most vulnerable.19 Official Use Only Despite strong development coDespite strong development co-benefits from many of the identified climate actions,Togos ability to invest is benefits from many of the identified climate actions,Togos ability to invest is constrained by limited fiscal spa

228、ce and access to climate financing instruments.constrained by limited fiscal space and access to climate financing instruments.Fiscal consolidation efforts in the short term and relatively low domestic revenue mobilization are among the most pressing constraints for publicly financed climate actions

229、 in Togo,many of which have high upfront costs.This is especially true when the country also needs to invest massively in basic infrastructure and services,as well as in education,healthcare,and social protection to address poverty and fragility risks.Togo will therefore need to focus in the short t

230、erm on relatively low-cost and high-return investments and boost allocative efficiency through governance reforms,while developing new sources of revenue mobilization and improving access to climate financing instruments.Figure ES Figure ES 3 3 -S Structural transformation tructural transformation c

231、ombined with combined with adaptation adaptation and mitigation and mitigation measures could reduce measures could reduce climate impacts by between 60 to 90 percentclimate impacts by between 60 to 90 percent Impact of climate shocks by 2050 on real GDP per capita levels under Impact of climate sho

232、cks by 2050 on real GDP per capita levels under different scenariosdifferent scenarios Figure ES Figure ES 4 4 -reduce reduce GHG emission intensityGHG emission intensity by by 55 55 percentpercent over the next 25 yearsover the next 25 years.GHG emissions GHG emissions in a dryin a dry/hot scenario

233、 with sectoral mitigation and/hot scenario with sectoral mitigation and a carbon a carbon tax of tax of US$7.5 US$7.5 per ton of COper ton of CO2 2 Source:World Bank Notes:Derived from simulations with the World Banks Mitigation,Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium(MANAGE-WB)m

234、odel.Source:World Bank Notes:Derived from simulations with the World Banks Mitigation,Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium(MANAGE-WB)model.A detailed analysis of energy supply and demand has been incorporated,taking into consideration various sources of electricity generation

235、and the corresponding energy mix.The model is also set up to include and track the evolution of GHG emissions by type and source.BoostBoostinging climate governance and climate governance and access to access to finance finance Togo would need to develop a clear and well coordinate climate Togo woul

236、d need to develop a clear and well coordinate climate change strategy.change strategy.While the Governments national development program includes climate change considerations,Togo does not yet have an integrated and holistic national climate strategy,nor has it set a net zero target in accordance w

237、ith Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement.The government did,however,launch a low emissions development strategy(LTS)covering all sectors,State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs),and municipalities,which marks an important step forward towards more strategy-driven climate change planning.On the other hand,Togos

238、institutional landscape for climate change and its coordination of climate action and policy are not yet conducive to improved climate governance.Despite the establishment of several coordination mechanisms over the years,including several institutions that appear set to play a role in mobilizing cl

239、imate finance,these are yet to be operational.This further underscores the urgent need for a more integrated and collaborative approach to climate change policy and financing in Togo for delivering on adaptation and resilience objectives.A more comprehensive Climate and Disaster Risk Financing strat

240、egy is also needed to clarify most suitable sources of financing and instruments.C Climate objectives limate objectives and risks should be integrated in and risks should be integrated in the the public investment management public investment management framework framework to reinforce to reinforce

241、adaptation and mitigation efforts.adaptation and mitigation efforts.Integrating climate considerations into macro-fiscal policies,budget allocations,and public investments is critical.Climate goals and climate risk assessment should systematically be integrated in the selection and execution of publ

242、ic investment projects.A Resilience Rating System(RRS)could help assist in 20 Official Use Only project financing and implementation decisions,and raise awareness among government officials,policy makers,and the general public about the risks of climate change and the benefits of more resilient infr

243、astructures.Public-Private Partnerships are also critical to meet large investment needs and to benefit from private sector expertise in climate adaptation and mitigation.This should be accompanied by updated legislation clarifying standards and methodologies to account for climate risks.It is also

244、critical to develop a cohesive climate and disaster financing strategy,and to engage the private sector to enhance Togos adaptation and resilience capacities.Greening the tax structure and introducing carbon taxation could provide aGreening the tax structure and introducing carbon taxation could pro

245、vide an important source of n important source of additional additional financing financing for climate actionsfor climate actions and significantly reduce emissionsand significantly reduce emissions.In particular,the gradual introduction of a carbon tax at US$7.5 per ton of CO2 in sectors that are

246、significant sources of emissions and for which low-carbon alternatives exist like energy,transport,industry,and agriculture could raise an average of 1 percent of GDP per year by 2035 and reduce emissions by 9.9 million tons of CO2eq by 2050.This would lower the emissions intensity of economic activ

247、ity by 6 percent.A fee and rebate system could provide necessary incentives for low-carbon alternatives by subsidizing them with rebates,while discouraging activities and production methods with high carbon intensities with fees.Reforming wasteful and regressive subsidies and tax expenditures could

248、also help to increase resources for climate action,while leading to more efficient use of energy,lower pollution,and improved human health.Togo Togo will need to will need to maximize the full range of concessional and semimaximize the full range of concessional and semi-concessional financingconces

249、sional financing instrumentsinstruments.These could blend funding and guarantees from multilateral development banks,development institutions,and public sector funds to support nature and biodiversity conservation,or climate-resilient infrastructure,transportation,and agriculture in Togo.Green bonds

250、 could also help attract investors for sustainable forestry,agriculture,or renewable energy projects.To take advantage of these financing sources,Togo needs to establish a strong framework with transparent impact assessments,and a robust pipeline of well-defined thematic projects.Moreover,Togo could

251、 explore sustainability-linked bonds(SLBs),which tie their financial performance to progress made towards agreed-upon Key Performance Indicators(KPIs),but which are not linked to specific projects.Deepening the financial sector is also essential to mobilize domestic and international savings for cli

252、mate Deepening the financial sector is also essential to mobilize domestic and international savings for climate investments.investments.Banks dominate the financial sector in Togo,but their ability to finance climate-related projects is limited.Authorities have not yet introduced formal labels for

253、green lending products or for banks financing flows for climate and environmental projects.The lack of a green taxonomy framework impedes investors from identifying environmentally sustainable activities.Togo should define its own taxonomy based on its needs,prioritizing sectors with the highest nee

254、ds,such as energy,agriculture,and forestry and other land uses.Togo is currently developing the regulatory framework for carbon markets,which should help implement mitigation Togo is currently developing the regulatory framework for carbon markets,which should help implement mitigation efforts and n

255、atureefforts and nature-based adaptation strategies.based adaptation strategies.Carbon market initiatives offer opportunities to accelerate the transition to a sustainable,inclusive,and low-carbon economy in Togo.To unlock their benefits,Togo should establish a clear and stable regulatory framework

256、for carbon markets,set up a market infrastructure,and develop a pipeline of high-integrity projects that utilize credible methodologies.Key policy reforms and investments identified in the CCDR Key policy reforms and investments identified in the CCDR will be will be operationalized through operatio

257、nalized through World Bank operations in World Bank operations in the context of the the context of the FY25FY25-29 Country 29 Country PartnershipPartnership FrameworkFramework (CPF)(CPF)andand stakeholder engagementstakeholder engagement.Climate interventions highlighted in this report will be syst

258、ematically included in World Bank operations during the new FY25-29 CPF period to boost resilience in sectors such as agriculture,forestry,and water management;electricity,transport,and digital infrastructures;coastal and urban developments;and health and human capital.This should help achieve the C

259、PFs main objective of transforming the agriculture sector with productivity-enhancement investments,boosting connectivity and logistics to connect farmers to markets,and ensure universal access to electricity to support Togos economic transformation and stimulate private investment.The CCDR will ser

260、ve as a key instrument to help align climate actions of various technical and financial partners,help mobilize new sources of financing,engage with civil society,academia,think tanks on the contour of a development strategy that better integrates climate challenges and help develop a strategy to mob

261、ilize the private sector for priority investments in the above-mentioned sectors.21 Official Use Only CHAPTER 1.CHAPTER 1.DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHALLENGES DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHALLENGES Togo has achieved significant development gains over the last decade,but progress is still held back by limi

262、ted progress with structural transformation and the narrowing of a large urban-rural divide.Poverty remains high in rural areas,particularly in the Northern Savanes region where fragility and insecurity risks exacerbate challenges.Climate change poses an additional threat,with rising temperatures an

263、d unpredictable rainfall projected to heighten vulnerabilities and negatively impact economic activity.However,a faster structural transformation and climate-conscious investments could transform climate risks into opportunities for accelerated development.1.1.Socioeconomic context and development c

264、hallenges Togo,a West African country of roughly eight million people,is endowed with a strategic location,a natural deepTogo,a West African country of roughly eight million people,is endowed with a strategic location,a natural deep-water port,ferwater port,fertile landtile land,and mineral resource

265、sand mineral resources.It is positioning itself as a regional leader in several agricultural value chains,as well as port and logistical services.Togo has an advantageous geographical location in the heart of Western Africa between Ghana to the west and Benin to the east.Its numerous natural assets

266、include land resources favorable to agriculture,significant phosphates,and other mineral resources.Togo also has the deepest port in the region,4 which serves many landlocked countries,including Burkina Faso,Mali,and Niger.It has also recently become a regional air transport hub.As a member of the W

267、est African Economic and Monetary Union(WAEMU),Togo can tap into regional markets and enjoy the benefits of a stable currency and generally favorable financing conditions.While Togos economy has been resilient in recent years,fragility risks have increased,and fiscal buffers have been While Togos ec

268、onomy has been resilient in recent years,fragility risks have increased,and fiscal buffers have been depleted.depleted.Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,Togo has faced unprecedented headwinds,including global trade disruptions,international energy and food price shocks,slowing externa

269、l demand,and tighter financing conditions.Togo has also faced cross-border spillovers from insecurity in the Sahel region,with patterns of violence and instability taking roots in the Northern part of the country.While external factors have been the main cause of recent challenges in the Northern re

270、gion,spatial disparities in economic opportunities and access to basic services,as well as high exposure to climate shocks contribute to amplifying fragility risks,which could further entrench regional disparities.The government helped limit immediate effects of these shocks in recent years with a s

271、trong fiscal policy response,which depleted fiscal buffers but allowed a continued upward trend in GDP per capita gains during difficult times(Figure 1-1).Poverty has remained consistently high,with large regional and genderPoverty has remained consistently high,with large regional and gender-based

272、disparities.based disparities.According to the latest household survey data from 2021,the poverty headcount ratio using the national poverty line stood at 43.8 percent,down from 45.5 percent in 2018/19.Poverty incidence is significantly higher in rural areas(58.2 percent,versus 20.1 percent in Lom a

273、nd 32.3 percent in other urban areas)and northern regions are the poorest both in terms of monetary poverty and access to basic services(Figure 1-2).Inequality is among the highest in the WAEMU region,with a Gini coefficient estimated at 38.1.Gender disparities in poverty incidence are also high and

274、 have widened since the COVID-19 pandemic,which disproportionately affected women given their overrepresentation in informal services activities.The Savanes region exhibits a singular pattern in which households are highly exposed to idiosyncratic and climate shocks,with heightened fragility and sec

275、urity risks in recent years preventing poverty reduction.S Structural transformation willtructural transformation will need to accelerate to sustain growth and alleviate poverty and fragility risks in coming need to accelerate to sustain growth and alleviate poverty and fragility risks in coming yea

276、rs.years.Togo was able to achieve relatively rapid and stable growth over the last decade,averaging about 5.2 percent over the period 2013-2023,supported by economic reforms and by rising public and private investments.However,the structural transformation made limited headways,holding back opportun

277、ities for a more rapid development trajectory and faster poverty alleviation.While the expansion of port activities in Lom and the development of industrial and agro-business zones translated into some strides towards an economic transformation,low and stagnant productivity in agriculture,a high deg

278、ree of concentration of the private sector and urbanization around capital Lom,and slow progress with human capital development have prevented faster progress.Moreover,the 4 The Port Autonome de Lom(PAL)enjoys one of the deepest quay infrastructures in West Africa(with 16.6 meters depth,capable of a

279、ccommodating third-generation ships carrying 2,000-3,000 containers)and is now the premier transshipment port in West Africa.22 Official Use Only quality of public infrastructures,including secondary and rural road networks is still holding back strategic sectors like agriculture and logistics,and i

280、s limiting the development of secondary cities.Togos electrification rate has also improved,but access in rural areas is low and lagging most regional peers,while access to the internet is patchy and unaffordable for a majority of the population.Poor connectivity infrastructures in rural areas contr

281、ibute to large spatial and socioeconomic disparities in Togo.The experience of aspirational peers illustrates the importance of scaling up private investment to accelerate structural transformation and of leveraging comparative advantages to drive faster growth and job creation.In Togo,scaling priva

282、te investment faces multiple constraints despite efforts to improve the business environment,with access to finance,energy,and markets as well as weak public sector governance and effectiveness being key challenges for firms.Figure Figure 1 1-1 1 -Real GDP growth has been resilient,Real GDP growth h

283、as been resilient,leading to improvements in living standardsleading to improvements in living standards Real GDP growth and GDP per capita Real GDP growth and GDP per capita levelslevels Figure Figure 1 1-2 2 -but poverty remains elevated,with a but poverty remains elevated,with a particularly larg

284、e ruralparticularly large rural-urban divideurban divide Poverty rate by areas,2021Poverty rate by areas,2021 Source:World Bank Source:World Bank calculations based on EHCVM 2018 and EHCVM 2021 The agriculture sector in Togo is at a crossroads,facing both significant challenges and promising opportu

285、nities.The agriculture sector in Togo is at a crossroads,facing both significant challenges and promising opportunities.Agriculture is the primary source of income for 40 percent of the workforce in Togo and 70 percent of the working poor in rural areas.Yet the agriculture sector faces multiple cons

286、traints that limit productive investment and commercialization,leading to insufficient opportunities to raise living standards in rural areas.The sectors growth over the last two decades has mostly been driven by the expansion of cropped areas,rather than by improved practices and efficiency gains.5

287、 Consequently,value-added per hectare remains low and has increased at a significantly slower pace than peers in the region,hindering the sectors development and contributing to environmental degradation.The governments industrialization policy has helped trigger private investments and growing acti

288、vity in The governments industrialization policy has helped trigger private investments and growing activity in sectorssectors,but,but the potential for industrial development remains largely untapped.the potential for industrial development remains largely untapped.The industrial sector was traditi

289、onally driven by the mining sector,especially phosphate processing,but improvements in electricity production,light manufacturing in food and beverage products,and clinker and cement production have helped diversify the industrial base.However,the sectors contribution to growth and job creation rema

290、ins very limited.Unlocking its potential would require substantial investments in machinery,infrastructure,and processing,which would offer an opportunity to decarbonize these industries,which now are significant sources of GHG emissions,as well as air and water pollution.Togo would need to deliver

291、significantly higher and more inclusiveTogo would need to deliver significantly higher and more inclusive growth growth than observed historically to meet its than observed historically to meet its development ambitions.development ambitions.If historical trends continue,and without consideration to

292、 climate change impacts,annual growth rates in Togo could be expected to gradually trend downward to reach about 4 percent by 2050,as growth in the labor supply slows amid changing demographic patterns(Figure 1-3).This“business-as-usual”scenario considers that the pace of structural transformation,p

293、hysical and human capital accumulation,and innovation remains aligned 5 Measured as Total Factor Productivity,i.e.,the efficiency of agricultural production obtained from all land,labor,capital,and material resources used.23 Official Use Only with historical norms,which would imply relatively stable

294、 labor productivity growth,at 2.4 percent per annum on average and GDP per capita gains averaging about 2.6 percent annually over that period.In a more ambitious structural transformation scenario in which Togo would emulate the successful experience of aspirational peers such as Bangladesh or Vietn

295、am,growth would be projected to accelerate to 6 percent on average over the next 25 years,or 4 percent in per capita terms from 2.8 percent over the last decade and 1.1 percent over the last two decades,putting the country in the top 10 to 15 percent of growth performers globally.These growth divide

296、ndsare expectedto deliver faster poverty reduction.Estimates suggest that the poverty headcount,measured by the national poverty line,could fall to as low as 8 percent in the structural transformation scenario by 2050,compared with 18 percent in the business-as-usual one(Figure 1-4).This development

297、 trajectory would only be possible if Togo is able to significantly shift productivity trends and job This development trajectory would only be possible if Togo is able to significantly shift productivity trends and job creation through structural transformation.creation through structural transform

298、ation.This would require diversifying the economy by leveraging comparative advantages in agriculture,light manufacturing,logistics and other trade-related services,improving connectivity infrastructures,creating a more enabling environment for private investment and strategic FDIs,investing in educ

299、ation and skills,and increasing female labor force participation.More specifically,maintaining average GDP growth of 6 percent until 2050 would require a sustained increase in private investment rates to about 20 percent of GDP on average(+3 ppt from current levels),an increase in total factor produ

300、ctivity growth by 0.8 ppt per year supported sectoral reforms and a shift in labor supply from agriculture to industry and services,an acceleration of human capital gains of about 0.2 ppt per year,and an increase in female labor force participation by 6 ppt.To maximize impact on poverty reduction,it

301、 is also crucial that structural transformation is more inclusive by focusing on economic opportunities for small-holder farmers,improving education and healthcare outcomes in rural areas,prioritizing inclusive urban planning and equitable access to resources and services,creating more and better jo

302、bs in urban-based industries and services,improving the resilience of vulnerable populations and reducing sources of fragility risks.Figure Figure 1 1-3 3 -Structural transformation,with rising labor Structural transformation,with rising labor participation and decelerating fertility rates could yie

303、ld participation and decelerating fertility rates could yield significant growth dividends.significant growth dividends.Growth projections with structural Growth projections with structural transformation and no climate shocks transformation and no climate shocks(percentage point)(percentage point)F

304、igure Figure 1 1-4 4 -bringing substantial welfare gains in the bringing substantial welfare gains in the structural transformation scenario.structural transformation scenario.P Poverty overty proprojectionsjections by growth scenarios by growth scenarios withwith no climate shocks no climate shocks

305、(percent of(percent of population)population)Source:World Bank Source:World Bank 1.2.Climate change,structural transformation,and the cost of inaction C Climate changelimate change is already a reality for Togois already a reality for Togo.Togo ranks 135 among 181 countries in measures of extreme cl

306、imate vulnerability(181 being the most vulnerable),with the country already experiencing increased temperatures,more frequent droughts and floods,and an increase in coastal erosion.These impacts are already adversely affecting economic activity,poverty,food security,natural landscapes,and public hea

307、lth.Mean annual temperatures have increased by 1.1C since 1960,with the rate of increase being higher in the more arid and poorer northern regions 24 Official Use Only(Figure 1-5).The number of hot days has increased by about 15 percent since 1960,and heat waves have become more common across all re

308、gions of the country.Annual rainfalls have generally declined but have also become more variable,with more frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation.Differences in average rainfall and rainy seasons also vary considerably across regions and over time,with significantly wetter conditions around m

309、ountainous areas and significantly drier conditions around coastal areas and especially in the northern Savanes region(Figure 1-6).Floods have become more frequent,adversely affecting the livelihoods of more exposed rural and urban populations,while also leading to the loss of ecosystems.Coastal ero

310、sion is also a key concern.Given the concentration of the population and economic activity along the coastline,Togo is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion.Figure Figure 1 1-5 5 -Temperatures have significantly Temperatures have significantly increased in Togo over the last

311、few decades.increased in Togo over the last few decades.Average mean surface temperaturesAverage mean surface temperatures Figure Figure 1 1-6 6 -High temperatures concentrate in the North,High temperatures concentrate in the North,precipitation in the precipitation in the mountainous areasmountaino

312、us areas.Average temperaturesAverage temperatures (L)(L)and precipitation(and precipitation(R R),1995,1995-201820186 6 Source:World Bank Source:World Bank Table Table 1 1 -Temperatures could rise nearly twice faster in Temperatures could rise nearly twice faster in the dry/hot scenario,compared with

313、 the the dry/hot scenario,compared with the wet/warm wet/warm scenarioscenario Change in average temperature by decade relative to 1990Change in average temperature by decade relative to 1990-20202020 Table Table 2 2 -Precipitation would increase in the wet/warm Precipitation would increase in the w

314、et/warm scenario while declining towards 2040scenario while declining towards 2040-50 in the dry/hot 50 in the dry/hot scenario scenario Percent change in Percent change in average precipitation by decade relative to 1990average precipitation by decade relative to 1990-20202020 ScenarioScenario 2020

315、s2020s 2030s2030s 2040s2040s Dry/hot meanDry/hot mean+0.58 C+1.05 C+1.44 C Wet/warm meanWet/warm mean+0.36 C+0.56 C+0.82 C ScenarioScenario 2020s2020s 2030s2030s 2040s2040s Dry/hot meanDry/hot mean+2.2%+1.5%-3.2%Wet/warm meanWet/warm mean+3.7%+8.5%+11.1%Source:World Bank Source:World Bank Heat stres

316、s is expected to intensify,precipitation will become more uncertain,and floods will escalate,particularly in Heat stress is expected to intensify,precipitation will become more uncertain,and floods will escalate,particularly in coastal areas.coastal areas.For the purpose of the analysis in this CCDR

317、,and in line with guidance to ensure comparability across countries,climate scenarios were aggregated into wet/warm7 and dry/hot8 scenarios to assess vulnerabilities and adaptation options under well-defined clusters of possible outcomes(see Annex 1 for details).Expectedly,temperature increases are

318、greatest under the dry/hot scenario,peaking at around 1.5C in 2050,with slightly higher gains in central regions,while temperatures would increase by a more moderate 0.8C on average in the wet/warm scenario(Table 1-Temperatures could rise nearly twice faster in the dry/hot scenario,compared with the

319、 wet/warm scenario).Regarding precipitation,the wet/warm scenario predicts an increase in precipitation in each decade and throughout the country,peaking at+11 percent by 2040-50 with greater flooding and erosion risks in some regions.Under the dry/hot mean scenario,a decrease relative to baseline c

320、onditions is expected towards the end of the 6 Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth land surface areas.Scientific Data.4 170122.https:/doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122 7 Three scenarios around the 90th percentile of mean precipitation changes(i.e.,wet)and the 10th percentile in mean temperat

321、ure changes(i.e.,warm),across SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 GCMs.8 Three scenarios around the 10th percentile of mean precipitation changes(i.e.,dry)and the 90th percentile in mean temperature changes(i.e.,hot),across SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 GCMs.25 Official Use Only projection period,intensifying droughts,an

322、d dry spells,particularly in northern regions(Table 2).The sea level rise of up to 0.34m by 2050 and 0.74m by the end of the century is expected to intensify coastal erosion,with the loss of coastline doubling from 5m per year currently to 10m per year by 2100.The combined pressures from sea level r

323、ise,coastal erosion,and coastal flooding will be particularly alarming for the City of Lom,the countrys capital,and center of economic activity,where 4050 percent of the population lives.Box 1-Illustrating the range of possible flood damages through stochastic simulations Stochastic simulations offe

324、r additional insights on the effects ofStochastic simulations offer additional insights on the effects of low probability but high impact events such as low probability but high impact events such as extreme flooding.extreme flooding.While the main model results presented in this CCDR are based on e

325、xpected mean damages,which are calculated by multiplying the probability of an event by its potential damages,stochastic simulations can offer a more granular understanding of climate change effects,particularly for low probability but high impact events such as extreme floodings.By generating a ran

326、ge of possible outcomes,these simulations capture the inherent uncertainty and variability associated with such events,considering their frequency,magnitude,and spatial distribution.This allows decision-makers to assess the potential for catastrophic losses,evaluate the effectiveness of different ad

327、aptation strategies,and make informed choices that align with their risk tolerance(IPCC,2021;Hallegatte,2010).This box investigates more specifically damage channels from inland,urban,and coastal flooding in Togo,using estimated return period of historical floods and their impacts to run 5000 realiz

328、ations of flooding damages over the period up to 2050 under various climate change scenarios.Figure B1:Flood damages by 2050 across areas and climate Figure B1:Flood damages by 2050 across areas and climate scenarios:total impactscenarios:total impact Figure B2:Flood damages by 2050 across areas and

329、 Figure B2:Flood damages by 2050 across areas and climate climate scenarios:deviation from historical impactscenarios:deviation from historical impact Source:World Bank Source:World Bank Results indicate Results indicate that that urban floodings could urban floodings could have the have the largela

330、rgest st overall overall impacts impacts on activity while damages from coastal on activity while damages from coastal floodings would increase the most floodings would increase the most in coming decadesin coming decades.In a wet-warm climate scenario,damages from urban flooding are estimated to re

331、ach on average 6.5 percent of GDP by 2050 but could range from a minimum of 5.1 percent of GDP in the best-case scenario to a maximum of 8.0 percent in the worst one(Figure B1).Compared with historical norms,this would imply an increase amounting to 0.6 percent of GDP on average(Figure B2).Interesti

332、ngly,while urban floodings will likely have the largest overall impact on activity,irrespective of climate scenarios,it is the impact of coastal flooding that is expected to increase the most,reflecting rising sea levels and the associated coastal erosion.Indeed,while climate change(under wet-warm c

333、onditions)is predicted to increase the average impact of urban and inland flooding by about 0.5-0.6 percent of GDP by 2050,coastal flooding impacts would increase by 1.6 percent of GDP over the same period,nearly doubling from a no-climate change baseline.Simulations illustrate the importance of prioritizing urban and coastal resilience to limit economic damages from Simulations illustrate the imp