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1、BUSINESS TRANSFORMATIONThe TransformationParadox:How to GrowWhen the Growing GetsToughBy Tuukka Sepp,Kristy Ellmer,Andreas Holmbom,Dominic C.Klemmer,PaulCatchlove,Martin Reeves,Ulrich Pidun,Gabe Bouslov,and Adam JobARTICLE APRIL 16,2025Business leaders can no longer rely on a tailwind to boost growt

2、h.They face encroachingconstraints on all fronts:trade wars are eroding the globalization premium businesses haveenjoyed over the past 30-plus years;the era of essentially free capital,which Western firms had2025 Boston Consulting Group1enjoyed for more than a decade,has ended;and,with the ongoing d

3、emographic shi,automaticpopulation-driven growth is no longer a given in most of the developed world.Consequently,in the first quarter of 2025,GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for the USand EU.Achieving growth in this environment will require a dedicated efforta growthtransformation.Unfort

4、unately,such transformations have low odds of success:our analysis of1,700 transformations globally over the past 20 years shows that only about one-third accelerategrowth in a value-accretive way.(See Exhibit 1.)Successful growth transformations tend to share some common factors,our research shows.

5、(See“The Ten Success Factors.”)Companies that deployed five or more of these key factors saw nearlydouble the success rate compared to those that applied none.Just as significantly,our research reveals that the current economic environment shouldntdissuade leaders.Transforming for growth may seem li

6、ke an audacious undertaking todaybutweve found that the success rate for such transformations is actually higher in times of low growththan in other years.The upshot?Company leaders have the chance to turn slowdown into renewal.Three Paradoxes of GrowthTransformationThe very idea of transforming for

7、 growth during a slowdown may seem contradictory.But in ourresearch,the companies that succeed in this effort do so by embracing paradox,not avoiding it.At2025 Boston Consulting Group2the heart of every successful growth transformation are three such tensionseach onerepresenting a key challenge lead

8、ers must reconcile to tip the odds in their favor.Paradox#1:Creativity vs.Discipline.A successful growth transformation requires fostering anenvironment that balances creativity with disciplined execution.In a business context that is not conducive to growth,innovation is more crucial than ever.As a

9、result,a successful growth transformation rests on fostering a creative environment.Our empiricalanalysis verifies this:companies with a more creative have three percentage points higherodds of success in growth transformations compared to the baseline success rate of less than one-third across our

10、sample.(See the sidebar“About Our Study.”)culture1 Our analysis is based on approximately 1,700 transformationsoccurring around the globe in companies with at least$1billion market capitalization over the period from 2004 to2020.Transformations were identified by annual restructuringcosts in excess

11、of 0.5%of sales.We define a successful growth transformation as one thatboth accelerates growth relative to its industry peers anddelivers total shareholder return(TSR)outperformance.Acompanys growth acceleration is the difference between itsindustry-adjusted growth rate(IAGR)in the five years aer i

12、tstransformation starts and its IAGR in the two years before itstransformation starts.IAGR is a companys annualizedgrowth rate over a time period,less the median annualizedindustry growth rate over that same period.TSRoutperformance is the annualized TSR that a companydelivers in excess of median in

13、dustry TSR over the five-yearperiod aer the companys transformation begins.Note that we also assessed success rates based on TSR andIAGR development over a three-year period,finding similarresults.In Exhibit 3,three-year period success rates areshown to enable the inclusion of 2020 transformations.W

14、e based the success factors on the literature review andcase studies.These factors were translated into quantitativeproxies and analyzed using logistic regression,a statisticalmodel that predicts the probability of a successful outcomewhile accounting for multiple effects.We then converted theAbout

15、Our Study2025 Boston Consulting Group3While innovation and underlying capabilities such as imagination and creativity seem like messy,unmanageable constructs,the BCG Henderson Institutes extensive research into these themesshows they can be harnessed systematically:there is no need to hope for inspi

16、ration to strike or fora genius to come along and save the company.One crucial prerequisite to fostering imagination is to look outwardto identify patterns andanomalies that spark new ideas.We find that companies that actively look beyond theirboundariesat issues related to their industry,geopolitic

17、s,macroeconomics,and sustainability,rather than merely at their products,processes,and have a five percentage-point higherrate of success in their growth transformations.Consider the path of Brooks Automation.Originally a semiconductor equipment and roboticsmanufacturer,the company found itself stru

18、ggling to grow in the early 2000s.Leaders lookedbeyond the boundaries of the business,studying all the patents that cited Brooks patents as wellas the patents citing those patents.This analysis revealed previously untapped opportunities in lifesciences,where the same precision technologies used to m

19、anipulate semiconductors could beapplied to handling biological samples in tightly controlled environments.Brooks Automationpivoted toward this new opportunity and eventually became a leader in the emerging biobankingindustry.Fostering creativity is crucial,but growth transformations also require di

20、sciplined execution.Aformal program with dedicated governance and for example,setting up atransformation officeis crucial to coordinating and tracking progress on change efforts.This isparticularly important for growth initiatives,the impacts of which are harder to measure due toconfounding effects

21、on the top line.While ensuring rigor,growth programs also need to foster innovation by allowing space forexperimentation and some failures.One way of achieving this is to appoint a chief transformationofficer(CTO)with the mission of reconciling discipline and creativity.For example,upon appointingDo

22、minic Cugini as CTO,KeyBank tasked him with digitizing and modernizing the banks servicesusing AI for instance,customer-facing GenAI featureswhile ensuring rigorous executionstandards throughout the digital transformation.resulting log-odds to an adjusted probability rate compared tothe baseline ave

23、rage success rate.people2 processes3 Fostering creativity is crucial,but growthtransformations also require disciplined execution.2025 Boston Consulting Group4Creating a dedicated leadership position for a growth transformation has further benefits:a CTOcan ensure that the change effort follows an o

24、verarching strategy rather than being a collection ofad-hoc initiatives.This,for example,was part of the agenda of Danielle Kirgan,the executive incharge of overseeing the transformation of Macys,as the retailer sought to modernize its onlineoperations and store Another important role for the CTO is

25、 to add capabilities crucial to transformation success to theleadership team.Empirically,the appointment of a CTO at the outset of the transformation isassociated with a remarkable 22 percentage points higher success rate in our It is nowonder,then,that CTO hiring has increased significantly in rece

26、nt years.Paradox 2:Vision vs.Foundation.Successfully transforming for growth requires setting out a long-termvision for the firm.But it also means building the foundations in the short term that enable delivery on thatvisionby freeing up resources and reducing pressure from stakeholders.Our analysis

27、 shows that adopting a long-term mindsetlooking beyond quarterly results andtoward long-term positioningboosts the odds of a successful growth transformation by threepercentage Crucially,the long-term orientation has to go beyond words:leaders need toput their money where their mouth is by investing

28、 in innovation.Our evidence suggests thatcompanies with above-average R&D spending achieve a six-percentage-point higher success rate ingrowth But achieving growth requires more than devising promising initiatives.It also means creating theright foundations in the short term:specifically,leaders nee

29、d to cra a compelling narrativeregarding their growth vision for investors.This reduces pressure and ensures management hasthe support for making potentially fundamental business model changes.Our analysis shows thatcompanies able to convince investors of the value-creation potential of their transf

30、ormations in thefirst year of their journeys have significantly better odds of Moreover,leaders need to rapidly right-size the cost base to fund their growth initiatives:ourresearch shows that companies that achieve higher cost efficiency gains than peers in the first yearof their change program hav

31、e a three-percentage-point higher success rate in transforming forThis underlines that successful and profitable growth is not only a mindsetits alsoabout creating an efficient operating model to support it and to fund the journey.An example of a transformation that squared the circle of short-term

32、foundation building and long-term vision is that of Delta Air Lines.Emerging from bankruptcy in 2007,the company announcedformats.4sample.5 points.6 transformations.7success.8growth.9 Successful and profitable growth is not only amindsetits also about creating an efficientoperating model to support

33、it and to fund thejourney.2025 Boston Consulting Group5a merger with Northwest Airlines,promising to its investors a more efficient,globally competitivecarrier.An integration of the companies operations led to the realization of significant cost savingsand a healthier balance sheet with more managea

34、ble debt levels.Delta then turned its attention to international expansion and fleet upgrades and an operatingdiscipline to become the most on-time airline in the USall supporting the carrier in achievingrecord-breaking profits in 2013 and going from strength to strength in the subsequent years(unti

35、lthe COVID pandemic hit the aviation industry).Paradox 3:Experience vs.Adaptability.In a turbulent world,transformation needs to turn from a one-time effort into an always-on capability.However,as companies embark on repeated change journeys,theyneed to adapt their approach to change alongside the c

36、hallenges they face.Our research suggests that companies that have previously embarked on a successful growthtransformation within our 20-year sample timeframe increase their chances of being successfulagain by 11 percentage points.This underlines the fact that,just as companies need to transformmor

37、e frequently to adapt to new realities and to preempt disruption,its crucial to create a culturein which change is seen as the normlike Amazons famed“Day 1”ethos.Moreover,through repeated change efforts,firms can build up a knowledge base of successfultactics that they can use in different situation

38、s.This is crucial,as our research shows that differenttacticsfor example,using incentives,running education programs on the benefits of the change,or relying on social contagion driven by“change champions”are effective in different situations,depending on the organizational setup and the kind of cha

39、nge being pursued.As such,companies should be careful to not merely apply the same tried-and-tested approach overand over again but to adapt their approach to change alongside the challenges they are facing.Ourresearch suggests that only 20%of firms escape this“success trap”an overreliance on proven

40、methodsby embracing adaptability in their change strategy.The Ten Success FactorsIn studying the companies that have effectively navigated these three paradoxes,weve identifiedten distinct factors that consistently drive successful growth transformations.Some factors areprerequisite capabilitiessuch

41、 as fostering a creative culture and investing in innovationwhileothers fall under the umbrella of transformation execution,such as setting up a formal program orappointing a chief transformation officer.(See Exhibit 2.)2025 Boston Consulting Group6Each of the success factors outlined above,on their

42、 own,can improve the odds of running asuccessful growth transformation.However,our analysis also shows that the effects of these factorsare compounding.Transformations that employ multiple success factorsfor example,fostering along-term view and investing in innovation,setting up a dedicated change

43、program,and appointinga CTOcan substantially increase their rates of transformation success.(See the sidebar“Defining the Ten Success Factors.”)The success factors are defined as follows:Foster a creative culture:Firm earnings calls showabove-average mentions of creativity-related termsrelative to i

44、ndustry peers in the two years leading up tothe transformation.Look beyond the boundaries of your firm:Firmearnings calls show above-average mentions of industry,geopolitical,macroeconomic,and other related termsrelative to industry peers in the two years leading up tothe transformation.Set up a for

45、mal program:Firm spending onrestructuring was greater than 1.5%of sales in the yearthe transformation started.Appoint a chief transformation officer:The firm hada chief transformation officer in the role in the year thatthe transformation started.Defining the Ten Success Factors2025 Boston Consultin

46、g Group7Overall,the average transformation success rate increases from 28%for firms that do not applyany of the factorsto 55%for those that apply five or more factors.Given that less than a fih ofthe firms in our sample leverage more than two of these factors in their transformations,there issignifi

47、cant room for firms to set themselves apart from the crowd.Why Now Is the Time to Transformfor GrowthAdopt a long-term mindset:Firm earnings calls showabove-average mentions of terms related to long-termmindset relative to industry peers in the two yearsleading up to the transformation.Invest in inn

48、ovation:The firm had above-average R&Dspending as a percentage of sales relative to industrypeers in the five years aer transformation started.Rapidly right-size the cost base:The firm had above-average cost efficiency gains in the first year of thetransformation,reducing their cost-of-revenue ratio

49、 morethan industry peers relative to the pretransformationbaseline.Cra a compelling narrative:The firm had higher“expectations”share of TSR decomposition in year oneof the transformation relative to industry peers.Build transformation experience:The firm has had apreviously successful transformation

50、 in the analysistimeframe(2004 to 2020).Transform from a position of strength:The firm wasin the top 30%within its industry for TSR performance inthe year before the transformation.2025 Boston Consulting Group8There is a final and critical paradox for change leaders to wrap their heads around:period

51、s of lowaggregate growth and high economic uncertainty seem to be good times for kick-startingcompanies individual growth journeys.For example,we found that,of the transformation programs initiated during the financial crisis of2008 and 2009,33%achieved value-accretive growth outperformanceexceeding

52、 the averagesuccess rate of 28%during years of higher aggregate growth in our sample.The contrast is evenmore stark for the Eurozone crisis(2012)and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic(2020),inwhich a remarkable 39%and 43%of transformations initiated found success over a three-yeartimeframe.(See E

53、xhibit 3.)There are good reasons why initiating a growth transformation may be particularly valuableagainst a challenging backdrop.For one,crisis periods have a disproportionate effect on long-termperformance:our research shows that the gap between winners and losers within an industrywidens signifi

54、cantly in times of crisis.As a result,outperformance during recessionary timescontributes significantly to overall long-term outperformance.Such outperformance is driven by growth,with our research also showing that,over a five-yearperiod,more than half of total shareholder return(TSR)can be attribu

55、ted to sales growthwithinvestor expectations,cost reductions,and changes in operating margins making up the rest.Overa ten-year horizon,nearly three-quarters of TSR is driven by sales growth.Put differently:growthwill get you ahead competitively in times of crisis.Moreover,growth can bolster resilie

56、nce,which is particularly valuable in turbulent times.Whileresilience is traditionally thought of as a defensive,operational strategy,this is shortsighted:investing in modular supply chains and cash buffers is important,but so is the ability to shape the“new normal”which oen emerges aer a turbulent

57、periodto your advantage.This is exactlywhat a transformation aimed at renewing growth is set up to do.2025 Boston Consulting Group9There are many examples of this:Chinese marketplace Alibaba,originally focused on facilitatinginternational sales of Chinese goods,launched its domestic e-commerce platf

58、orm Taobao whenthe 2003 SARS epidemic ravaged Asia and spurred interest in online purchasing;Taobao is nowone of the largest online shopping platforms in the world.Amazon,aer losing more than 90%of its market value during the dotcom crash,initiated its pivotfrom store to marketplace,opening its plat

59、form to third-party sellers in 2001;they now account forabout 60%of sales on the platform.Starbucks,facing drastic reductions in store visits due to thepandemic,invested in its drive-through and mobile ordering offerings,which now constitute morethan 30%of orders.Finally,our analyses have shown,time

60、 and again,that there is a benefit to preempting the nextdownturn.Initiating a growth transformation from a position of strength means being better ableto shape the journey,rather than having to react to external pressure.Our empirical analysisunderlines this:growth transformations initiated while T

61、SR is still ahead of industry averages havea five-percentage-point higher rate of success.Many of the worlds most valuable companies have taken this to heart and are masters ofdisrupting their own lucrative recipes.For example,Nvidia embraced tensor cores designed for AItasks while its core gaming b

62、usiness was still growing;Apple moved to develop its own chips whileits collaboration with Intel was still yielding growing market shares in notebooks;and Adobemoved to a cloud-based subscription model for its creative suite while its disk-based sales were stillrising.Growth transformations are hard

63、 to get right,but company leaders can tip the scales in their favorby reconciling the inherent paradoxes.And theres no time like the present.Crisis periods have a disproportionate effect onlong-term performance.2025 Boston Consulting Group10Authors2025 Boston Consulting Group11Tuukka SeppManaging Di

64、rector&SeniorPartner;Global Leader,BCGTransform PracticeHelsinkiKristy EllmerManaging Director&PartnerBostonAndreas HolmbomManaging Director&PartnerPhiladelphiaDominic C.KlemmerManaging Director&PartnerColognePaul CatchloveSenior Director BCGTransformHelsinkiMartin ReevesManaging Director&SeniorPart

65、ner,Chairman of the BCGHenderson InstituteSan Francisco-Bay AreaUlrich PidunPartner&Director,BCGHenderson Institute FellowFrankfurtGabe BouslovAssociateChicagoAdam JobStrategy Lab Director,BCGHenderson InstituteMunich2025 Boston Consulting Group12ABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUPBoston Consulting Group

66、partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their mostimportant challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in businessstrategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace atransformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeho

67、ldersempowering organizations togrow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectivesthat question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edgema

68、nagement consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in auniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a betterplace.Boston Consult

69、ing Group 2025.All rights reserved.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find thelatest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and X(formerly Twitter).1 To measure and compare creativi

70、ty across firms,we use a proprietary natural language processing(NLP)algorithm,which assessesthe use of words related to creativity,ideation,playfulness,and experimentation in firms external communications.2 Measured using a proprietary NLP algorithm that assesses the use of words related to topics

71、like industry,geopolitics,macroeconomics,and sustainability in firms external communications.3 Specifically,we find that companies which invest significant resourcesat least 1.5%of their annual salesinto restructuring have a7 percentage-point greater odds of success.4 Phil Wahba,“What Does a Chief T

72、ransformation Officer Do?Talking Strategy with Macys Turnaround Expert,”Fortune,Dec.23,2021.5 Specifically,if the firm had a chief transformation officer in the role in the year that the transformation started.6 Measured using a proprietary NLP algorithm that assesses leaderships focus on long-term

73、issues in firms external communications.7 Specifically,if the firm had above-average R&D spending,as a percent of sales,relative to industry peers across the five years aerthe transformation started.8 Measured based on the percentage of TSR driven by changes in investor expectations rather than changes in fundamentalperformance(sales growth,cost reductions,and improvements in operating margins).9 Measured based on reduction in cost of revenue ratio in the first year of the transformation as compared to the pretransformationbaseline,relative to industry peers.2025 Boston Consulting Group13