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1、 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Top Five Trends in NicotineA Euromonitor Presentation for 2Firsts,March 2025Erwin Henriquez,Industry Manager Nicotine 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Todays PresenterINTRODUCTION2Erwin is responsible for the direction and quality

2、 of Euromonitors content covering the nicotine industry.He provides global expertise and forward-thinking insights and identifies key market trends.Erwin HenriquezIndustry Manager,Nicotine 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Todays insightsState of the industryTop 5 trends shaping the

3、 industryFuture outlookKey takeaways3 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.State of the industry 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Legal market volume forecast CAGR 2023-2028-0.1%Total market value in 20236,483 bnTotal market volume in Stick equivalent in 2023927 bnNic

4、otine snapshotSTATE OF THE INDUSTRYSource:Passport,Nicotine 2024 edition 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Beyond nicotine and the next stimulants Consumption polarisation and consumer sensitivitiesTop 5 trends in NicotineDecreasing prevalence and visibility of the industryRegulator

5、y pressures and advancementsExpanding landscape of nicotine consumption 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Decreasing prevalence and visibility of the industry14TOP 5 TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRYThe declining smoking population converts into a change in the social role of smoking.Orga

6、nic volume growth in the cigarette market is expected to be quite limited.However,companies can still facilitate consumers transition to reduced-risk products and address consumer demand.Source:Passport,Nicotine 2024 editionPowered by Bing(4,927)-4,878 Smoking population growth Smoking population gr

7、owth 2023-2028 excl China000 people 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Milan implements a ban on all outdoor smokingCigarette smokers in Milan being pushed in to the backstreet and out of view limiting the visibility of products and reinforcing the idea that smoking is undesirable.15

8、Global consumers that use cigarettes daily18%Global consumers believe regulation should be more restrictive44%of daily cigarette users use at least two types of products 21%Source:Euromonitor Voice of the Consumer:Nicotine Survey,fielded January to February 2024Image source:https:/Choose only ONE:ei

9、ther Option 1 or 2 Case study slide suggested layout option 1.2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Consumption polarization and consumer sensitivities16TOP 5 TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRYThe nicotine industry is facing significant challenges due to limited volume growth,reduced disposabl

10、e incomes,and increasing regulatory pressures,which may lead to a decline in revenue,especially in developing markets.Companies can explore offering a wider range of products at various price points,including low-cost options and premium products.Source:Passport,Nicotine 2024 edition-3%0%3%6%9%12%20

11、1820192020202120222023VolumeValuePriceTotal(Legal)Growth:Global 2019-2023%growth of volume(sticks),value(rsp)and price(rsp/sticks)2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Brand repositions to retain market shareJTI positioned Sovereign in the budget segment to compete with other affordable

12、 brands.By offering this well-known brand at a lower price,JTI aimed to retain customers considering cheaper alternatives172023-2028 forecast unit price growth for cigarettes38%Share of economy brands out of total global cigarette volume23%consumers say price is very important as a product attribute

13、60%Source:Euromonitor Voice of the Consumer:Nicotine Survey,fielded January to February 2024Source:https:/ Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Expanding landscape of nicotine consumption18TOP 5 TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRYConsumers are increasingly adopting alternative,lower-risk nicotine d

14、elivery methods,with combined usage of cigarettes and RRPs,although overall shifts in consumption patterns remain gradual.Given the current trends in other consumer products,it is possible for society to start re-evaluating the role of nicotine when it is separated from tobacco and combustion produc

15、tsSource:Passport,Nicotine 2024 edition050100150200201820202022202420262028Combustion productsRRPsCategory Volume Growth Index 2018-20282018=100Combustion products:Cigarettes,Cigars and Cigarillos,Smoking Tobacco.RRPs:Smokeless Tobacco,E-Vapour Products,Heated Tobacco,Nicotine Pouches 2024 Euromonit

16、or International.All rights reserved.Nicotine pouches continue explosive growth in the USThe latest forecast suggests nicotine pouches may make up about 10%of all stick equivalent volume by 2028,highlighting their potential as a key player in the fragmented nicotine market.19Source:Passport,Nicotine

17、 2024 editionSource: only ONE:either Option 1 or 2 Case study slide suggested layout option 2.0%20%40%60%80%100%202320242025202620272028Tobacco Free Oral NicotineHeated Tobacco ProductsE-Vapour ProductsSmokeless TobaccoCigars,Cigarillos and Smoking TobaccoCigarettesUS Category Breakdown%of volume(st

18、ick equivalent)2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Regulatory pressures and advancements20TOP 5 TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRYRegulation plays a significant role in shaping the nicotine industry,with future legislative actions likely to focus on products characteristics,sustainability an

19、d environmental impacts.Both industry players and regulators want to work together to level the playing field and ensure consumers have access to safe and legal products.Source:Euromonitor International based on preliminary estimates0%25%50%75%100%ItalyIndonesiaMalaysiaUSSaudi ArabiaIsraelEstimated

20、Illicit E-vapour Penetration:2024,Selected Markets%of total volume 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Regulatory changes create fuel for the illicit marketWhile there is a measurable effect on the reduction of consumption after these types of measures,there is also the unintended con

21、sequence of moving consumers into the illicit markek21Source:Passport,Nicotine 2024 editionSource:,3,8003,9004,0004,1004,2004,3004,4004,5004,60005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00020232028Closed System CartridgesClosed System Single UseCigarettesCigarettes(Illicit)UK Category Volume:2023-2028Million

22、 stick equivalent 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Beyond nicotine and the next stimulants 22TOP 5 TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRYConsumer demand for diverse stimulants beyond nicotine and alcohol is rising,leading major tobacco companies to explore products with functional ingredients

23、,herbal components,and cannabinoids,marking a significant shift in the industry.Source:Passport,Nicotine 2024 edition010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0002019202020212022202320242025202620272028Adult-Use PopulationTotal No of SmokersHistoric ForecastNorth America User Population:2019-2028000 persons 2024

24、Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.(Non)Functional products targeting consumers looking to reduce nicotineAs consumers increasingly seek functionality in products,there is a growing opportunity for exotic herbs and functional ingredients23of nicotine consumers plan to consume less 49%of c

25、onsumers report moderate to severe impact from stress72%of consumers choose herbal remedies to reduce stress41%Source:Euromonitor Voice of the Consumer:Nicotine Survey,fielded January to February 2024Source:https:/ Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Future outlook 2024 Euromonitor Interna

26、tional.All rights reserved.Modest cigarette declines in the face of big growth opportunities for RRPFUTURE OUTLOOK25Source:Passport,Nicotine 2024 editionSource:Passport,Nicotine 2024 edition-50 100 150 200 250 300202320242025202620272028CigarettesCigars and CigarillosE-Vapour ProductsHeated Tobacco

27、ProductsTobacco Free Oral NicotineIndex Growth by Category(ex China),2023-2028Category volume index size(2023=100)2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Key takeaways 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.regulatory limitations and varied channel dynamics continue to shape t

28、he landscape of tobacco sales at a global level.Distribution,the next target for regulatorsThe diverging dynamics in cigarette volume growth in Asia,North America and Europe highlight the importance of geographic expansionGeographic diversificationThe industry is experiencing varied performance acro

29、ss different categories.Divergent growth in consumptionKey takeawaysProduct innovation focuses on flavours,filtration,RRP and sustainability.The regulation focuses on adopting strict measures against combustible tobaccoRegulatory and product innovationSmoking prevalence is declining at a steady pace

30、 worldwide.Projections estimate a reduction of 20 million smokers globally by 2028Ongoing decline in smoking prevalence28 2024 Euromonitor International.All rights reserved.Thank you!Erwin Henriquez,Industry Manager NicotineEhttps:/ black circle with white text and black textDescription automaticallygeneratedMhttps:/