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1、UK industry focusGlobal trade redefined:RetailApril 2025Dealing with tariff uncertaintyStrategy&Global trade redefined:RetailThis report has been developed in collaboration with the Strategy&team PwCs global strategy house.Together,we transform organisations by developing actionable strategies that

2、deliver results.This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only,and does not constitute professional advice.You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice.No representation or warranty(express o

3、r implied)is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication,and,to the extent permitted by law,PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,its members,employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or an

4、yone else acting,or refraining to act,in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.2025 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.All rights reserved.PwC refers to the UK member firm,and may sometimes refer to the PwC network.Each member firm is a separate legal enti

5、ty.Please see for further details.Last updated:9am on 17 April 2025Strategy&Global trade redefined:RetailSome common industry actions:1.Assess first-order impact versus second-order impact2.Understand variation by sector within an industry and interdependencies across industries 3.Adopt a mix of no

6、regret moves in the short term and strategic choices in the longer term4.Identify both risk mitigants and growth opportunities5.Embed ongoing resilience to respond to geoeconomic shocksIntroductionThe UK retail sector will be less directly impacted by the introduction of US tariffs,reciprocal tariff

7、s and ongoing bilateral negotiations than other sectors in the UK economy such as automotives and pharmaceuticals.But there will be some first-order impact on retailers subject to their supply chain footprint and US sales exposure and more material second-order consequences of fragile consumer senti

8、ment,lower global economic growth and inflationary pressures.This creates additional challenges for UK retailers at a time when retail margins are being squeezed by increasing competition and cost headwinds.Labour costs alone are rising due to NLW,NIC and The Employment Rights Bill.Retailers can mak

9、e some no regret moves in the short term and some structural changes in the medium term leveraging their muscle memory from Covid and Ukraine crises to embed ongoing resilience in their business models.3April 2025Notes:1.Estimated tariff impact assumes measures stay in place for a prolonged period,i

10、n line with Strategy&s Break and reorder scenario;2.Featured sectors account for c.60%of UK GVA(Gross Value Added);3.Estimated 2024 GVA based on ONS dataStrategy&Global trade redefined:RetailOn 2 April 2025,the US administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on imported goods.It marked the

11、 countrys most significant departure from liberal trade policy since the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930.The scale of the measures suggests a structural pivot in US trade strategy.Given their breadth,and the growing likelihood of retaliatory responses from key trading partners,businesses now face a materia

12、lly more volatile and uncertain global trading environment.Where we are today4What happened on Liberation Day?The Executive Order introduced a dual framework of restrictions:broad-based baseline tariffs alongside more targeted reciprocal measures.The EU was subject to reciprocal tariffs of 20%,China

13、 34%,with certain South-East Asian economies facing higher rates still.The UK was included under the 10%baseline category.Certain exemptions were made for pharmaceuticals,critical minerals and semiconductors.Prior to this,there were also a number of product-level distinctions,for example steel and a

14、luminium and automobiles were previously singled out with a 25%tariff.On 9 April,reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days for most trading partners.The 10%baseline tariff introduced on 5 April now applies for all countries,except China,for which a 145%tariff applies to most goods.A further revisio

15、n was introduced excluding smartphones,computers and other electronics.US officials have indicated that further sector-specific measures are likely.The international response has been mixed:Retaliatory tariffs from countries such as China and Canada,which have imposed tariffs on a wide range of US g

16、oods.Diplomatic engagement from the UK and EU,signalling efforts to secure exemptions or negotiate new terms.Unilateral liberalisation from a small number of economies,which have opted to remove tariffs on US imports entirely,albeit from a starting point where most US goods were not subject to tarif

17、fs.Looking aheadRecent US statements suggest further restrictions may be introduced in select product categories.Economic theory holds that when trade flows are disrupted,capital flows are rarely far behind.Asset markets are already reacting.Weve seen volatility across equities,fixed income and fore

18、ign exchange some of which may reflect repositioning by non-US central banks,many of whom hold large exposures to US government debt.This adds another layer of complexity for firms already contending with uncertainty around tariffs,supply chains and pricing.Trade is the hinge between economic theory

19、 and political reality.When it swings,the whole house can shake.”Barret Kupelian,Strategy&and PwC UK Chief EconomistApril 2025Strategy&Global trade redefined:RetailThree scenarios to plan for the short termWhat could happen next5In the near term,scenario planning will be essential.Over time,a reasse

20、ssment of supply chain configuration,investment strategy and risk management frameworks may prove unavoidable in the face of an increasingly fragmented global trading system.To help clients better understand how tariffs could evolve,weve devised three scenarios.Given the unpredictable and fast chang

21、es happening,weve chosen to limit these to tariff policy.However,we are mindful that the current changes to US tariff policy is likely to spill over into second-and third-order impacts.Reversal of the USs position on tariffs,coupled with time-bound trade negotiations with its main trading partners,i

22、ncluding Canada,Mexico and China.To limit market uncertainty,there is regular forward guidance on the state of the trade negotiations.The USs main trading partners strike limited trade arrangements by the end of the 90 days suspension period(i.e.8 July 2025).These come into force by the end of the c

23、alendar year.In the interim,the baseline tariffs continue to apply for most economies,including China.Trade negotiations with most of the USs trade counterparts,including the EU,UK,Canada,Mexico and other advanced economies break down.The US doubles down on its necessity to swiftly eradicate the goo

24、ds trade deficit with the rest of the world.The US reimposes reciprocal tariffs by 8 July 2025.With this in mind,the EU,Japan,China and other economies retaliate in equal measure.As these economies import less than they export to the US,retaliatory actions spill over into the services sector(e.g.dig

25、ital services)and potentially to public procurement.In the short to medium run,the ex-US G20 economies set up trade,regulatory and investment cooperation mechanisms at very rapid pace.In this scenario,we could also see some non-European economies seeking a Customs Union arrangement with the European

26、 Union.We could also see some South-East Asian economies forging closer trading relations with China.These changes are also rapidly reflected in investment flows.Stabilise and rebuild Divide and dealBreak and reorder5April 2025Reversal of US position on tariffs coupled with time-bound trade negotiat

27、ions with some of the USs trading partners(EU,UK,Canada and Mexico included)but excluding China(and potentially some other South-East Asian economies).For those counterparts where a trade arrangement is agreed by 8 July 2025,these are put in place by the end of 2025/Q1 2026.In the interim,the baseli

28、ne tariffs remain in place.For those counterparts where a trade arrangement is not agreed upon within the 90 days,reciprocal tariffs are re-imposed,consistent with the 2 April 2025 announcement.For China,tariffs remain in place consistent with the USs latest announcements and Chinese policymakers re

29、act in kind.In the medium to long run,the ex-US G7 economies set up cooperation mechanisms which lead to gradually closer trading,regulatory and investment cooperation.Strategy&Global trade redefined:RetailTaking stock of tariffs6Understanding the impact on the retail sectorA perspective on retail o

30、verallRetailers face higher costs of selling to the US and potential dumping outside of the US but the bigger worry is the wider impact on consumer sentiment that drives volatility in spending patterns and therefore in retail market outlook and deals flow.01Higher costs of servicing the US marketSal

31、es to the US attract a baseline tariff(10%)with a higher burden on sourcing from high-tariff jurisdictions as the country of origin(30%+without benefit of de minimis threshold for China and Hong Kong),unless goods are substantially changed or used in the manufacture of new products in the UK.Inflati

32、onary pressures for both costs and demandNew global trade dynamics affect input costs across the retail value chain with potentially higher costs of Tier 2/3 sourcing,shipping and wider infrastructure(e.g.warehouses).These costs are likely to be passed on to consumers(in full or in part)with little

33、retail margin cushion to play with.April 2025Source:PwC Consumer Sentiment Survey(March 2025)PwC Consumer Sentiment Index,2008-25“Thinking about your disposable income in the next 12 months,do you think your household will be?02Increased competition outside of the USHigh-tariff countries may redirec

34、t excess supply from the US to the UK,EU and other regions which will intensify competition in a retail market served by a range of business models(direct,wholesale,marketplaces,resale and rental).03Decline in consumer sentiment and market growthOur UK consumer sentiment index fell to-12 in March 20

35、25(the lowest level since September 2023).More people expressed concerns about the economy,inflation and geopolitical events even before US tariffs were announced.As a result,more consumers are intending to cut back on spending by adopting a mix of coping mechanisms(making fewer purchases,buying che

36、aper products and/or shopping at cheaper retailers).04Depressed deals marketThe volume and value of retail transactions were adversely affected by the cost-of-living crisis(retail deals volume down-23%across EMEA in H2 2024).Investors will have mixed appetite for discretionary categories creating a

37、valuations gap between buyers and sellers.05Strategy&Global trade redefined:RetailTaking stock of tariffs7Understanding the impact by retail categoryA perspective on retail categoriesSome retail categories are more exposed than others,reflecting their supply chain footprint and wider resilience of t

38、hat spend for consumers.Apparel has a concentration of suppliers from countries that have been hardest hit by tariffs(e.g.China,Cambodia,Bangladesh)with some UK retailers having a material business in the US.Apparel was the worst impacted category during the cost-of-living crisis.Electricals and hom

39、e source from a mix of high-and low-tariff jurisdictions(e.g.China,Germany,Japan,South Korea).Big ticket purchases are more likely to be delayed with a decline in consumer sentiment.Health and beauty is a relatively protected category with a manufacturing footprint across Europe(predominantly in Fra

40、nce,Germany and Italy),the US and China.Consumers are prioritising wellness coming out of the pandemic.Food is the most protected category with c.10%exports to the US(versus 55%for EU).UK consumers consistently prioritise food spend(more about their inflation expectations than a bigger share of stom

41、ach).April 2025Strategy&Global trade redefined:RetailTaking stock of tariffs8Assess the impacts and short term actionsApril 2025Tax and operational assessment01Conduct/validate impact assessments,including understanding the physical product/material flows.02Review eligibility for tariff exemptions a

42、nd exclusions,for example goods in transit before 12.01am EDT on 5 April 2025.03Understand the country-of-origin rules and place where goods are substantially manufactured.04Understand the value build up of the price to ensure the custom value is correct and review cost components.05Consider from a

43、transfer pricing perspective that intercompany product pricing is correct and that any revised pricing(of product or wider services)adheres to the arms length principle(and aligns with customs considerations).06Consider the US specific valuation principles.07Review contracts to confirm whether they

44、include a tariff cost adjuster/escalator in terms of cost 08Consider the impact on any changes to the above on the income tax position in the US and other jurisdictions.While the medium to long-term structural impact on the retail sector may ultimately be significant,such shifts are likely to unfold

45、 gradually.Any operational responses or strategic interventions will need to be carefully phased over time.In the near term,however,the immediate priority for retail operators is to thoroughly assess and quantify the tariff implications from a tax and operational perspective.The following actions ca

46、n be taken now and may have a meaningful impact on your businesss overall exposure.Strategy&Global trade redefined:RetailNavigating the potential falloutShort and longer term actions you should takeRetailers need to prepare for a new world order which is characterised by regional power blocs,state c

47、apitalism and bilateral relations.This transition will create geopolitical volatility in the short term and global trade realignment in the medium term.Short-term no regret movesMoves to capture maximum value over the longer termThemesAbsorb initial shock from US tariffs and navigate geoeconomic vol

48、atilityMake structural changes to future-proof business against global trade realignmentTaxation Consider the tax points noted on the previous page,and evaluate the impact on income tax,transfer pricing and tariffs(taking a holistic tax view)Consider the overall tax model(customs,transfer pricing,di

49、rect and indirect taxes)implications and impact of any supply chain reorganisation so as to fully evaluate the options through an integrated business and tax perspectiveSourcing and supply chain Re-negotiate contracts with suppliers and logistics partners and optimise buffer inventories Switch to al

50、ternative distribution routes Rebalance and diversify supplier base in low-tariff territories Explore warehouse and distribution capabilities in the USPricing and range Explore price increases for select categories/SKUs Shift stock to more profitable channels and territories Optimise category mix an

51、d price architecture with lower cost to serve Rebalance international sales channels in low-tariff territoriesFinancial and liquidity Manage any working capital risk associated with supply chain disruption Pre-empt refinancing and credit requirements Revisit capex priorities across value chain and g

52、eographies Reset margin and cash thresholds under new global trading regimeOverall Rapid tax impact assessment Scenario planning Risk mitigation Sources of defensible and scalable differentiation Business model transformation,powered by techRetailers can make some no regret moves now to mitigate ini

53、tial risks to margin and more structural changes to transform the business model that collectively embed resilience to counter any geopolitical shocks(tariffs or otherwise).Retailers need to rebalance their mix of sales and sourcing to mitigate risks associated with international tariffs and supply

54、chain disruptions with US protectionism likely to be the mood for the foreseeable future.”Jacqueline Windsor,Strategy&and PwC UK Retail Sector Leader9April 2025Sam WallerPwC UK Leader of Industry for Consumer MJacqueline WindsorStrategy&and PwC UK Retail Sector LJo BelloPwC UK Consumer Markets Tax L

55、Barret KupelianStrategy&and PwC UK Chief EKey contactsThis publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only,and does not constitute professional advice.You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice.N

56、o representation or warranty(express or implied)is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication,and,to the extent permitted by law,PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,its members,employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,responsibility or duty of

57、care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting,or refraining to act,in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.2025 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.All rights reserved.PwC refers to the UK member firm,and may sometimes refer to the PwC network.Each member firm is a separate legal entity.Please see for further details.Contact us to discuss how best to respond to the changing rulebook for global trade.