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1、April 2025Public Sector PracticeHow American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraIn a shifting world order,US companies continued success will hinge on an understanding of policymakers intentions.by Matt Watters and Shubham Singhalwith Zoe FoxAs President Calvin Coolidge said,in so many

2、words,“The business of America is business.”One hundred years later,his words still ring true,as American businesses have a profound impact on American lives and livelihoods.American businesses employ roughly 83 percent of the US labor force,equivalent to about 136 million jobs1nearly half of which

3、belong to small businesses with fewer than 500 employees.2 And of course,all Americans depend on commerce to supply the goods and services needed for daily life.For roughly the past 30 years,geopolitics has taken a back seat relative to macroeconomic,strategic,and technological concerns for business

4、es.But today,a new hurdle looms:900 executives tell McKinsey that they see geopolitics as the greatest risk to economic growth.Theyre not wrong.Business leaders understand that a reconfiguration of global trade is underway.Consider that the China tariffs imposed by President Trump were expanded by P

5、resident Biden,and most of Chinas retaliatory tariffs remain in place.And in April 2025,new base and reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect on US trading partners.The uncertainty about the tariffs and possible retaliations or negotiations have created one of the greatest levels of peacetime

6、 uncertainty for US businesses.The facts speak for themselves:American business is in a new era of geopolitics,with significant implications.The United States has long been the lynchpin of the global economy.Its economic preeminence in the years and decades to come will rest on a philosophical and o

7、pportunistic alignment between government and business,working in parallel to navigate shifts in global politics,economics,trade,and security.Ten drivers of geopolitical changeAs the United States seeks to update the rules of trade,economics,and security,and other nations react,we inevitably face pr

8、ofound uncertainty.Yet,even in the face of this change,business leaders need to seek understanding and act.As US policymakers reconsider and adjust across ten major drivers of geopolitical change(exhibit),US businesses can bound the uncertainty by understanding the principles guiding potential US po

9、licies.Some shifts are intended to encourage a rewiring of the industrial base for national security or reindustrialization,while others are meant to build leverage in negotiations.Understanding the distinction can ensure long-term realignment of corporate investments and operations with government

10、policies,instead of mere tactical,near-term moves to mitigate risks.1“The employment situationMarch 2025,”US Bureau of Labor Statistics news release,April 4,2025;“Economic data:All employees,total private(USPRIV),”Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,April 4,2025.2 Rebecca Leppert,“A look at small busin

11、esses in the U.S.,”Pew Research Center,April 22,2024.2How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraTrade and economics Trade agreementsTrends Regional trade agreements have increased by 20 percent since 2020.Eighty percent of Mexican exports go to the United States,primarily under th

12、e United StatesMexicoCanada Agreement(USMCA).The European Union has more than 40 active trade agreements as of 2025.Examples The America First Trade Policy report of April 3,2025,covers trade,renegotiation of USMCA,foreign-currency manipulation,and other topics.The EUMercosur agreement,ratified in D

13、ecember 2024,is designed to increase trade and investment and lower tariffs and other barriers.Trade and economics Tariffs and other trade barriersTrends In 2025,China,the European Union,the United States,and others announced substantial hikes in tariff rates.The United States trade-weighted average

14、 tariff rate is now between 22 and 27 percent,the highest level since the 1930s.As of 2023,52 percent of US goods consumed are“made in America.”The rest are imported.A considerable amount of Chinese manufacturing has shifted in recent years to Vietnam and other Asian countries,in part to avoid tarif

15、fs.But these countries are now also subject to higher tariffs.US goods most at risk from higher tariffs include apparel and leather,computers and electronic products,and electrical equipment and appliances.Examples The United States announced reciprocal tariffs in April 2025.Many of these are curren

16、tly delayed;tariffs on China remain and have been expanded.China and Europe announced retaliatory tariffs in April 2025.How ten drivers of value are changing amid geopolitical shifts3How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraTrade and economics Import/export and capital controlsTr

17、ends Just 5 percent of US exports are subject to export controls under the Commerce Control List,with many classified as dual-use or critical technologies.That said,export controls have recently been applied to new areas(such as semiconductors,cybersecurity,emerging technologies,and solar panels)due

18、 to national security concerns.Between 2021 and 2024,US exports to Russia declined by more than 90 percent,from$4.9 billion to$500 million.Examples China expanded export controls in 2023 to include lidar technologies.China issued export controls on rare earth elements in April 2025.In 2024,the Unite

19、d States published a list of companies that have continued to sell dual-use items to Russia.In April 2025,the US government announced new export controls on semiconductors used in artificial intelligence applications.Trade and economics Industrial policiesTrends Since 2017,American,European,and Chin

20、ese industrial incentives have grown six-,five-,and twofold,respectively,and are valued at more than$2 trillion.China accounts for more than 50 percent of that total.Ninety-five percent of the$600 billion in global government subsidies is focused on 13 product categories,including defense,semiconduc

21、tors,steel,and heavy equipment.Examples Indias“Make in India”initiative of 2014 is designed to transform India into a global design and manufacturing hub.The US CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 is designed to fund research and manufacturing of semiconductors.The US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Ac

22、t(also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law)of 2021 is designed to fund highways,transit,railways,and other infrastructure.4How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraTrade and economics Environmental and labor/immigration policiesTrends Broad reductions in US energy regulati

23、ons have been announced,with an intent to increase production.Changes in US immigration policy seek to crack down on criminal cartels,foreign gangs,and human trafficking.Current US labor policy seeks to eliminate discrimination related to diversity,equity,and inclusion(DEI)programs.Examples The 2024

24、 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers details about 40 regulatory barriers on US companies operating in the European Union.The US governments Migrant Protection Policy(commonly known as“Remain in Mexico”)of 2019 has caused many asylum seekers to stay in Mexicos northern regions w

25、hile awaiting a US immigration hearing.US executive orders of January 20,2025,aim to increase oil and gas leasing and streamline permitting.The US Environmental Protection Agency announced a rollback of core regulations on March 12,2025.Security Foreign-investment restrictionsTrends The US Committee

26、 on Foreign Investment in the United States(CFIUS)reviewed a record 286 transactions in 2022,up from 187 in 2020,with significant growth observed in finance,information,and services.In 2023 and 2024,CFIUS issued more penalties than it had in the nearly 50 previous years.The European Unions mechanism

27、 to screen foreign direct investment reviewed 16 percent more cases in 2023 than in 2022,with 488 total notifications.Examples The European Union expanded its screening regulations for foreign direct investment in 2024.In 2025,the US Department of Treasury published its Final Rule on outbound invest

28、ment screening,which targeted Chinese companies.The America First Investment Policy memo of February 2025 restricts foreign investment in US mining and energy projects.5How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraSecurity Technology,intellectual property,and cybersecurity controlsTr

29、ends Four-fifths of humanity lives in countries with unique data privacy regulations.Multinational companies can face fines of up to 5 percent of revenue for noncompliance with Chinas Personal Information Privacy Law(PIPL)enacted in 2021.Examples Chinas Data Security Law and PIPL were both enacted i

30、n 2021.The Data Security Law governs data processing,security,and rights.Europes General Data Protection Regulation of 2018 was enacted to protect the privacy of personal data.The United Kingdoms Financial Conduct cybersecurity guidelines of 2019 are designed to promulgate best practices across bank

31、s.Trends In 2024,the United States issued more sanctions than all other major countries combined.Sanctions on cryptocurrency have soared as regulators seek to crack down on illicit activity.Tier-three suppliers are much less compliant than tier-one suppliers,making supply chain visibility paramount.

32、Examples The European Union proposed sanctions in 2024 on Chinese companies supplying Russia with drones for the war against Ukraine.US policies on melt-and-pour requirements for steel imports enacted in 2024 are expected to continue under President Trump.Security Sanctions,embargoes,and additions t

33、o restricted lists6How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraSecurity ConflictsTrends Conflicts have doubled in the past five years,from approximately 100,000 in 2020 to approximately 200,000 in 2024.Fourteen percent of the worlds population was exposed to conflict in 2023.Fifty-n

34、ine conflicts involved nation-states in 2023,the highest since 1946.Examples Russias 2022 invasion of Ukraine has resulted in ongoing war.The January 2025 ceasefire in Gaza has not held.Ecuadors war on drug trafficking,begun in 2018,continues today.Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked shipping vesse

35、ls in the Red Sea since 2023.Companies have switched to other routes,adding up to two weeks to some transit times.Security Multilateral cooperation and alliancesTrends Global cooperation is at a crossroads.While overall collaboration has flatlined,driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and insta

36、bility,positive momentum in areas of climate and nature,innovation and technology,and health and wellness offer hope.Examples AUKUS,the trilateral security partnership among Australia,the United Kingdom,and the United States,was announced in 2021.Despite turmoil,the UN Climate Change Conferences con

37、tinue to address climate change.Talks have resumed among the United States,Europe,and Iran to limit Irans nuclear powers.Burkina Faso,Mali,and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States in 2023 and withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States,a trade bloc.7How American business can pro

38、sper in the new geopolitical eraAmerican business has adapted before,and has been central to the United Statess successful navigation of prior eras of geopolitical realignment.The postWorld War II years saw the emergence of American products,and their cultural influence helped promote values of demo

39、cracy and capitalism around the world.For example,Coca-Cola rapidly expanded its operations in Europe,Asia,and Latin America,and a bottle of Coke quickly became an icon of American culture.Joseph Stalin banned Coca-Cola in 1946 in the Soviet Union,fearing widespread American cultural influence.Coca-

40、Cola finally entered the Soviet market in 1979,and the company handed out sodas at the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.3 Likewise,the entry of McDonalds into China in 1990 helped grow Western consumption trends in the country4 and promoted American values abroad,with the foreign outlets dubbed as“em

41、bassies”or“consulates”of American culture.In more recent years,American businesses have continued to adapt to American policy and economic interests.The rapid exit of American businesses from Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine was done for several business reasons,but it also helped reite

42、rate American values abroad and significantly undermined Russia.The war in Ukraine has also seen American liquefied natural gas(LNG)producers rapidly expand their export capacity,5 with supplies to European markets tripling since 2021 and US foreign policy aiming to wean European countries off Russi

43、an energy.6 Another example from Ukraine:SpaceXs Starlink capabilities provided the government,military,and civilians with a communications channel that proved vital to sustained humanitarian and military operations.The move was in line with the US foreign policy of supporting Ukraines defense and w

44、as renewed through a$23 million contract with the US Department of Defense for continued Starlink support of satellite communication services across the country.7An agenda for US businessSo,what should American businesses do today?In our view,leaders should be proactive and shift their mindsets from

45、 near-term risk mitigation to long-term value creation.Such an approach requires three actions:accelerating growth,optimizing core operations,and developing new capabilities(see sidebar,“A checklist for executives”).3 Mark Pendergrast,“Viewpoints:A brief history of Coca-colonization,”New York Times,

46、August 15,1993.4 Christian Reynolds,“The soft power of food:A diplomacy of hamburgers and sushi?,”Food Studies:An Interdisciplinary Journal,2012,Volume 1,Number 2.5“Asia looks to US LNG ramp-up after Trump order to unleash energy supply,”S&P Global,January 21,2025.6“Russias high-flying gas exporter

47、crippled as Europe stays away,”Reuters,March 13,2025.7 Sandra Erwin,“SpaceX providing Starlink services to DoD under unique terms and conditions,”SpaceNews,October 3,2023.8How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraAccelerating growthBy analyzing a range of growth scenarios across

48、the ten value drivers presented in the exhibit,businesses can find opportunities for commercial acceleration and portfolio rebalancing.Commercial acceleration.Companies have been able to gain market share or improve margins through moves based on recent geopolitical dynamics,as illustrated by the fo

49、llowing examples:Nucor redeployed its capital expenditures in response to tariffs imposed in 2018 on nearly all imported steel,tripling profits and allowing it to invest$3.2 billion in building new plants in the United States,including a$1.3 billion steel plate mill in the Midwest,fueling organic gr

50、owth and boosting domestic production.8 Apple shifted its operations from China to India to avoid US consumer electronics import tariffs and potential supply chain disruptions.Interestingly,by setting up operations in India,Apple was able to grow its market share in India to 23 percent.9 O9 Solution

51、s and SAP are committing to digital twins that can improve transparency across tiers in the supply chain and help clients mitigate geopolitical risks.108 Lizzy Gurdus,“Tariffs enabled top US steelmaker Nucor to build new billion-dollar plant,says CEO,”CNBC,January 29,2019.9 Michael Acton and John Re

52、ed,“Apples quiet pivot to India,”Financial Times,February 17,2025.10“Building the first digital twin prototype:A call for solutions,”O9 Solutions,March 9,2023;SAP Insights,“How digital twins are driving the future of business,”blog entry by Tom Kurtz and Richard Howells,October 18,2021.A checklist f

53、or executivesTo position their companies for success,leaders can take the following actions:1.Reassess the geographic and business footprint and M&A/divestiture pipeline through the lens of geopolitical stability.2.Reshape operations(manufacturing,supply chain,R&D footprint,and people operations),fa

54、ctoring in the impact of tariffs,export and import controls,investment restrictions,domestic subsidies,and so on.3.Identify investment themes aligned with growing trade corridors as well as new business and market growth opportunities arising from industry policy.4.Optimize workforce distribution to

55、 reduce visa-related risk and tap into talent pools,while selecting hubs that balance risk exposure with future workforce potential.5.Ensure tech systems comply with evolving data and cyber-control regulations.6.Create the playbook and infrastructure for rapid market exits if conditions shift.7.Buil

56、d a dedicated geopolitics team that can track and assess geopolitical risk.8.Run crisis scenarios for operational and market disruptions.9How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraPortfolio rebalancing.Geopolitical shocks can cause even stable,growing businesses to falter and can

57、also make overlooked areas more favorable.Adjusting to geopolitical disruptions through M&A,partnerships,and divestments should be part of companies dynamic capital reallocation.Some examples include the following:Infosys acquired InSemi Technology Services,a semiconductor design company,to bolster

58、its engineering R&D and develop new chips for artificial intelligence,5G,and quantum computing.This move aligns with the US governments goal of onshoring semiconductor manufacturing.11 A US private equity firm is shifting its portfolio away from regions with shrinking profits due to conflict;it is s

59、pecifically moving the manufacturing of dual-use civilianmilitary products into regions with fewer restrictions.GE Aerospace announced plans to commit roughly$1 billion to enhance its US manufacturing and supply chain,nearly doubling its investment from the previous year.This includes$500 million de

60、dicated to expanding engine production capacity,with a focus on the narrowbody CFM LEAP engine,which powers Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo jets.12Portfolio rebalancing is often a response to changes in industrial policy and the tax incentives and subsidies at the center of these policies.New US p

61、olicy on manufacturing is a leading example.China surpassed the United States in gross value added(GVA)in production in 2008,13 and manufacturing in other countries has also risen.In response,the US government is investing more in its domestic industrial base to decrease reliance on other countries

62、for critical goods(such as high-end manufacturing equipment,defense systems,and semiconductors)and improve supply chain resilience.These investments can help the United States capture more of the value-added portion of the manufacturing value chain.More specifically,the United States has provided en

63、ormous stimulus toward manufacturing through legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law,and the CHIPS Act.In 202324,the United States provided approximately$100 billion in subsidies for onshore manufacturing through these policies.14 Many US companies have

64、 capitalized.11 Peter Sayer,“The biggest enterprise technology M&A deals of the year(so far),”CIO,February 28,2025.12“GE Aerospace to invest nearly$1B in U.S.manufacturing in 2025,”GE Aerospace press release,March 12,2025.13 Richard Baldwin,“China is the worlds sole manufacturing superpower:A line s

65、ketch of the rise,”CEPR,January 17,2024.14“New industrial policy observatory:Tracking information on industrial policies since 1 January 2017,”Global Trade Alert,January 2024.10How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraThe new US industrial policy for digital and green technologie

66、s is another example.These same laws have encouraged companies to double their investment in new manufacturing plants from 2022 to 2023,spending an average of$16.2 billion per month.15 Real investment in the semiconductor and green-energy industries is projected to reach$458 billion by 2028 and crea

67、te 10,000-plus jobs in 202425.16 One beneficiary is US solar-panel manufacturer First Solar,which sold$700 million in IRA tax credits in 202317 and increased its revenue by 27 percent in 2024.18Defense is another example.Geopolitical dynamics have prompted increased US investment in the defense indu

68、strial base,with an increase from an average of$84 million per year from 2013 to 2019 to$774.5 million from 2020 to 2023.This includes an additional$74.6 billion in investments through combined supplemental and base defense appropriations for fiscal year 2024.19 These developments present opportunit

69、ies for defense contractors and dual-use products,as well as IT,infrastructure,and construction.The purpose of the investments is to both secure US defense manufacturing supply chains and inject fiscal stimulus into the overall American economy.20Defense spending also poses a growth opportunity for

70、unconventional defense companies,particularly in the tech industry.To ramp up AI-enabled systems,the US Department of Defense awarded companies such as Microsoft,Amazon,and Alphabet$28 billion in contracts between 2018 and 2022.21 Investors are paying attention.From 2021 to 2023,venture capital firm

71、s invested nearly$100 billion into defense tech start-ups,a 40 percent increase from the past seven years combined.22Optimizing core operationsBusiness leaders can boost organizational resilience and improve cost-effectiveness with moves across operations,supplier relationships,global talent capabil

72、ities,and technology infrastructure.Operating footprint.Manufacturing,storage,and customer engagement locations are critical cost categories,and physical commitments provide both geopolitical opportunity and exposure.Several companies have recently shifted their footprint in response to geopolitical

73、 shifts:15 Niels Graham,“The IRA and CHIPS Act are supercharging US manufacturing construction,”Atlantic Council,February 13,2024.16 London School of Economics,“How the IRA and CHIPS Act spending on green energy and semiconductor facilities have boosted US manufacturing and employment,”blog entry by

74、 Omar Barbieros,December 4,2024.17 Chris Crowell,“Details on First Solars$700 million production credit sale,”Solar Builder,December 29,2023.18 Anne Fischer,“First Solar shares soar on release of Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings,”pv magazine,February 26,2025.19 National defense industrial strategy:Jun

75、e 2024 interim implementation report,US Department of Defense,July 3,2024.20 National defense industrial strategy:June 2024 interim implementation report,US Department of Defense,July 3,2024.21 Roberto J.Gonzlez,How Big Tech and Silicon Valley are transforming the military-industrial complex,Watson

76、Institute for International and Public Affairs,Brown University,April 17,2024.22 Roberto J.Gonzlez,How Big Tech and Silicon Valley are transforming the military-industrial complex,Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs,Brown University,April 17,2024.11How American business can prosper

77、 in the new geopolitical era Samsung SDI and Chrysler parent Stellantis are in line to receive a US Department of Energy loan of up to$7.54 billion to help build two electric-vehicle lithium-ion battery plants in Indiana.This move would allow Samsung additional access to the US market while enabling

78、 US domestic priorities,such as creating about 2,800 jobs and strengthening domestic battery supply chains.Apple,which recently announced its plan to invest$500 billion to build new AI servers in Houston in partnership with Taiwanese company Foxconn,is creating 20,000 jobs over the next four years.2

79、3 In this highly uncertain environment,its unclear how this will pan out.But in some scenarios,the move could help Apple avoid tariff risk,while reshoring its operations to avoid geopolitical entanglements.Semiconductor companies such as Micron Technology and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Compa

80、ny(TSMC)are expanding their US footprint by setting up fabs in Idaho,New York,and Arizona,with support from the CHIPS Act,as semiconductor manufacturing has emerged as a strategic national priority.Here too,the outcome is uncertain,but thats true of most strategic bets.Supply chain.Recent notable su

81、pply chain disruptions have led to facility closures,prompting many supply chain leaders to source from multiple vendors,move away from just-in-time ordering and delivery,and even stockpile critical inputs.Some are taking advantage of industrial policies offering incentives for localization of produ

82、ction or supply base(for example,Tesla leveraging the tax credits presented by the US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to strengthen its supply chain by sourcing materials domestically and shifting its manufacturing capabilities from Germany to the United States).24 Others are using advanced technolo

83、gies(for instance,risk maps and digital twins)to anticipate and prepare for future geopolitical disruption and other challenges.Cisco has started to develop risk maps to anticipate geopolitically driven supply chain issues and requires its suppliers to fill in a business continuity planning(BCP)asse

84、ssment questionnaire,particularly in more volatility-prone emerging-market countries.25Talent footprint.Companies can review talent concentration patterns,rebalance workforce allocations,and localize teams to mitigate geopolitical impact on their people.In the wake of Russias invasion,IBM provided r

85、elocation and financial assistance to employees in Ukraine,ensuring both employee safety and talent retention in the face of on-the-ground geopolitical volatility.2623“Apple vows to build A.I.servers in Houston and spend$500 billion in U.S.,”New York Times,February 24,2025.24 Victoria Waldersee,“Tes

86、la scales back German battery plans,won over by U.S.incentives,”Reuters,February 22,2023.25“Helping Cisco partners reduce risk,”Cisco,accessed March 2025.26 Arvind Krishna,“Update on our actions:War in Ukraine,”IBM,March 7,2022.12How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraThis is e

87、specially noticeable in digital roles;given the short supply,companies can use expatriate workers(though this may expose companies to changes in immigration policy)and create delivery centers in digital hubs(for example,India,Mexico,Poland,et cetera).Another idea comes from Micron,which established

88、the Northeast University Semiconductor Network,in partnership with leading US universities,to strengthen the pipeline of workers to the semiconductor industry.Technology infrastructure.Historically,multinational organizations built technology functions where talent,infrastructure,and data footprints

89、 extended across borders.Thats changing now,as companies seek to deflect geopolitical threats such as cyberattacks,intellectual property theft,data localization requirements,and more.As of 2023,Microsoft geographically houses all EU customer data within EU data centers to comply with the EU Data Bou

90、ndary requirements.27 Companies can select which threats are most critical to their businesses and implement tailored mitigation strategies.Chevron and GE Vernova teamed up to build natural-gas-based power plants located next to US data centers.Some companies are splitting their IT infrastructure an

91、d operations across international borders to comply with different regulatory regimes.Building geopolitical capabilities and strategiesTo take effective action,companies need a globally conscious corporate strategy,modern legal structures,and the right teams and processes in place to respond to geop

92、olitical events.Broadening the view of corporate strategy.When global trends are uncertain,leaders can fold geopolitical considerations into their regular strategy,business-planning exercises,and board discussions.The underlying question for corporations is whether a policy change can influence thei

93、r strategic decisions,which is underpinned by the risk appetite of the organization.Future-proofing multinational organizations.The rise in international conflict increases the likelihood that an organization may need to swiftly exit a market,such as Russia in 2020.Business leaders can preemptively

94、evaluate their legal structure to facilitate regional or sector-wide pivots,or even preemptively shift their organization structure(governance,legal,capital,and people)to separate operations across geopolitically aligned theaters in case they need to suddenly sever regional ties.Building a dedicated

95、 functional group.Companies that quickly adapt to geopolitical disruptions often have dedicated teams focused on monitoring global changes,forecasting,and scenario planning.These teams,led by a geopolitics officer,keep senior leaders and the board informed for swift responses.They ensure the company

96、 stays ahead of changes and seizes opportunities.At the October 2024 conference of the Institute of International Finance,JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon noted that his team runs scenarios and would characterize the current geopolitical risks as“treacherous.”28 Regular discussions on geopolitical ris

97、ks and opportunities help in quick decision-making,fostering a culture of resilience and positioning the organization to thrive amid global uncertainties.27 Microsoft on the Issues,“Microsoft completes landmark EU Data Boundary,offering enhanced data residency and transparency,”blog entry by Julie B

98、rill,February 26,2025.28 Eleanor Pringle,“Jamie Dimon says global politics are treacherous and getting worseso hes preparing for anything,”Fortune,October 11,2024.13How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical eraEstablishing a crisis response playbook.Another trait of a successful orga

99、nization is codifying the scenario-planning exercises into a playbook,which provides a starting point for assessing the impact of conflicts,tariffs,or other shifts.Such a playbook can equip leadership teams with the critical tools for the first 24,48,and 72 hours following a core operational disrupt

100、ion.American businesses are known for taking advantage of disruption and being resilient when the ground shifts beneath them.As the world enters a new period of dislocation,its time to rediscover the habits and practices that have led to success.At time of publishing,countries worldwide are actively

101、 revising tariff and trade policies.Final outcomes and implications for government,business,and individuals are highly uncertain.Matt Watters is a partner in McKinseys New Jersey office,Shubham Singhal is a senior partner in the Detroit office,and Zoe Fox is an associate partner in the Washington,DC

102、,office.The authors wish to thank Benjamin Mapes and Priyanka Krishnamoorthy for their contributions to this article.This article was edited by Mark Staples,an editorial director in the New York office.Copyright 2025 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights App14How American business can prosper in the new geopolitical era