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1、 Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook Commissioned by October 16,2024 Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivativ

2、e works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.Contents Section 1.Executive summary 1 Section 2.Asia Pacifics energy transition outlook 6 2.1.Scenarios 6 2.2.Emissi

3、ons 7 2.3.Abatement 8 2.4.Investment 17 2.5.Assessing the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions against NEO scenarios 22 Section 3.Technology drivers 25 3.1.Fossil fuel-based power generation 28 3.2.Variable renewables 31 3.3.Dispatchable renewables 39 3.4.Energy storage 47 3.5.Power grids

4、 52 3.6.Hydrogen 57 3.7.Carbon capture and storage 65 3.8.Electric vehicles 69 3.9.Sustainable aviation fuels and clean aviation 74 Section 4.Barriers,opportunities,and the way forward 77 4.1.Accelerating deployment of mature climate solutions 77 4.2.Supporting the development of emerging climate so

5、lutions 88 4.3.Scaling up finance for the energy transition 94 Appendix A.Geographies 100 Appendix B.Emissions constraints in the New Energy Outlook 101 Appendix C.Macroeconomic indicators 102 Appendix D.Electricity generation by technology in selected Asia Pacific markets 104 Appendix E.Land use mo

6、deling methodology 106 About us 114 Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written con

7、sent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.1 Section 1.Executive summary Asia Pacific is central to global energy sector decarbonization and the worlds transition to net zero.The region saw energy-

8、related emissions grow 151%between 2000 and 2023,driven by strong economic development,population growth and industrialization.However,emissions will need to peak and rapidly reduce if the world is to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.Countries must act immediately to decarbonize along a Pari

9、s-aligned emissions trajectory The window to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 is rapidly closing,although immediate and accelerated action could still put Asia Pacific on track.In BloombergNEFs Net Zero Scenario,global warming is limited to 1.75C by the end of the century,in line with the goals of t

10、he Paris Agreement of well below 2C of global warming.Governments need to double down and accelerate decarbonization efforts in the next decade,starting immediately,or risk missing their climate goals.Achieving net zero by 2050 requires India,Indonesia and Vietnam to reach peak emissions 12 to 18 ye

11、ars earlier than under BNEFs Economic Transition Scenario.These three see the largest decarbonization challenges on a country level.Whether its an economic-led pathway or a Paris Agreement-aligned transition,energy-related emissions in key Asia Pacific markets1 peaked in 2023 and are now on a sustai

12、ned decline out to 2050.There are actions that countries can,and must,take today There is no cookie cutter approach for the decarbonization of Asia Pacific energy systems.Each markets optimal portfolio of decarbonization technologies will be influenced by local policies,access to resources,and geogr

13、aphical constraints.However,there are commonalities.Today,mature,commercially scalable technologies with proven business models exist.These include electric vehicles,renewable power,energy storage,and power grids,all of which require a significant acceleration to get on track for net zero,but bear l

14、ittle to no technology risk and economic premiums are generally small or non-existent.Reducing emissions from the regions power sectors need to be of utmost priority and can be implemented immediately with an accelerated scaling of low-carbon technologies and a swift end to financing of new unabated

15、 fossil fuel plants.A low-carbon power system will be the foundation of a net-zero energy sector,comprising 75%of the regions energy consumption by 2050.Clean power alone could abate 50%of Asia Pacifics cumulative emissions between 2024 and 2050.However,some markets may still face regulatory and inf

16、rastructure barriers as well as bottlenecks that can impede clean power deployment.Policymakers will need to address these challenges.1 In this report,the key Asia Pacific markets discussed are China,India,Japan,South Korea,Indonesia and Vietnam.$88.7 trillion Energy sector investment and spending i

17、n Asia Pacific over 2024 to 2050 in BNEFs Net Zero Scenario 50%Cumulative emissions abatement from clean power in Asia Pacific by 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario versus a no transition pathway 17.5 terawatts Wind and solar capacity deployment in Asia Pacific by 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario Asia Pacif

18、ics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more informa

19、tion on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.2 Table 1:Opportunities to accelerate deployment of mature climate solutions Technology(units)Economic Transition Scenario,2050(Multiplier versus 2023)Net Zero Scenario,2050(Multiplier versus 2023)Key

20、 challenge to keeping on track for net zero Possible solutions Solar (gigawatts)6,781(x6.9)11,676(x11.8)Rapid scaling Binding phase-out targets for unabated fossil fuel power plants Regulatory and market reforms to unlock renewable opportunities Easing potential grid bottlenecks Minimizing site acqu

21、isition hurdles through land allocation for renewable project development Clear,long-term procurement programs Wind (GW)2,970(x5.5)5,847(x10.9)Rapid scaling Battery storage capacity(GW)1,761(x48.5)2,227(x61.3)Rapid scaling Standalone or hybrid auctions Power market reforms to allow for participation

22、 of batteries in ancillary service,energy,and capacity markets Passenger electric vehicle fleet (million vehicles)515(x22.2)671(x28.9)Rapid scaling Stringent fuel-economy or tailpipe emissions standards Mandate electrification of business fleets Subsidies and/or tax incentives to ease purchase barri

23、ers Developing sufficient charging infrastructure Introduce and legislate a complete phase-out date for sales of new internal combustion engines Power grid (thousand kilometers)44,036(x1.4)53,101(x1.7)Socio-political acceptance Minimizing site acquisition hurdles by facilitating easement rights Regu

24、latory reforms to spur greater private investments and open access to larger pool of capital Source:BloombergNEF The urgency of global decarbonization means governments and corporates need to intensify efforts to commercialize emerging decarbonization technologies for deployment at scale within the

25、next 10 years.These include nuclear,carbon capture and storage(CCS),hydrogen,sustainable aviation fuels,and heat pumps,all of which are under various stages of development but require more support and partnerships between all stakeholders to reach the stage of mass deployment necessary under a net-z

26、ero pathway.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Financ

27、e L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.3 Table 2:Opportunities to supporting emerging climate solutions Technology(units)Economic Transition Scenario(Multiplier versus 2023)Net Zero Scenario(Multiplier versus 2023)Key

28、 challenge to keeping on track for net zero Possible solutions Nuclear capacity (gigawatts)240(x2.2)620(x5.8)Socio-political acceptance and technology commercialization Increased research and development on new-generation nuclear technologies Safety framework and policies to address concerns Interna

29、tional technology and financing collaborations Carbon dioxide emissions captured by CCS (million metric tons of CO2 per year)-*5,367*Technology commercialization Research and development and pilot projects in critical sectors Tax incentives and/or contract for differences to lower upfront developmen

30、t costs Establish shared facilities and infrastructure among users Hydrogen demand(million tons of hydrogen(140 megajoules per kilogram)73(x1.8)211(x5.3)Technology commercialization Pushing existing hydrogen uses(for instance fertilizer production)to clean hydrogen Tax incentives and/or contract for

31、 differences to support production and demand Enforceable quotas for clean hydrogen use Establish shared facilities and infrastructure among producers,users and exporters Heat pumps (million units)66.7(x3.2)214.3(x10.3)Rapid scaling Policies to reduce upfront cost,and improve accessibility of heat p

32、umps Support adoption in multi-family buildings and retrofit market Sustainable aviation fuels demand (million gallons)1,844(x66.7)33,775(x1,221.9)Technology commercialization In the short term,provide incentives both supply-side and demand-side to scale up the infrastructure for sustainable aviatio

33、n fuels(SAFs)Phase out usage of biofuels for road transport to ensure availability of feedstocks for SAF production Set targets for replacement of jet fuel with SAF Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Hydrogen demand today is largely served by fossil fuel-derived hydrogen,so the multiplier for low-carbon hydro

34、gen is many orders of magnitude larger.*There is no multiplier for carbon capture and storage due to absence of operational capacity outside of the upstream extractive sectors.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reprod

35、uced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.4 Financing th

36、e energy transition requires strong mandates from governments and collaboration between all stakeholders The energy transition requires a substantial scale-up of capital directed toward low-carbon assets and infrastructure.Under BloombergNEFs Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario,the en

37、ergy investment opportunity between 2024 and 2050 totals$74 trillion and$89 trillion respectively.The falling costs of some low-carbon solutions,such as electric vehicles and clean power,and new policy commitments are closing the spending gap between the two scenarios.However,vastly different invest

38、ment choices need to be made if net zero by mid-century is to be achieved.Figure 1:Annual investment in selected Asia Pacific markets,Economic Transition Scenario Figure 2:Annual investment in selected Asia Pacific markets,Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF Source:BloombergNEF It is critical to a

39、ccelerate access to low-cost finance for mature low-carbon technologies,as these tend to be associated with high capital expenditure.The cost to access this capital remains a limiting factor especially in the current high interest rate environment.The higher the perceived risks of a project,the grea

40、ter the unwillingness to finance or more unfavorable the terms will be.Key concerns such as regulatory risks,off-take and curtailment risks and a lack of or weak market price signals for decarbonization need to be managed.Emerging technologies may require greater support from governments and multila

41、teral institutions to catalyze deployment.They may face higher barriers to financing due to the uncertainties around technology performance,supply chains and profitability.Collaboration with development institutions and international banks can help mobilize greater capital flow at more financially v

42、iable costs for emerging technology projects.Carbon markets can be a funding source for decarbonization activities by transferring financial resources from other markets into Asia Pacific countries and provide financial incentives for emissions reductions in multiple sectors.As mature low-carbon tec

43、hnologies such as wind and solar power are increasingly competitive without further financial support,there is an opportunity to redirect funding from carbon markets to finance earlier-stage technologies and into managing phase-outs of fossil fuel plants with long-remaining lifespan that have greate

44、r funding needs.Subsidies and carbon pricing mechanisms need to be well designed to achieve intended outcomes.They are some of the most direct interventions to support an emerging technology but need to be deployed strategically.Subsidies need to be 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5202420302035204020452050$t

45、rillionVietnamIndonesiaSouth KoreaJapanIndiaChina0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.520242030 2035 2040 2045 2050$trillionVietnamIndonesiaSouth KoreaJapanIndiaChina Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an el

46、ectronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.5 targeted into sectors that need the

47、m in the short term,and need to be phased out when financial support for the technology is no longer required to avoid over-reliance on government support in the long run.A markets carbon pricing mechanism also needs to be sufficiently high and cover a significant share of emissions,without too gene

48、rous a concession that could negate the incentive for companies to abate emissions.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of

49、 derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.6 Section 2.Asia Pacifics energy transition outlook Home to some of the fastest-growing economies,Asia Paci

50、fic faces a colossal but not insurmountable challenge to decarbonize,while ensuring sufficient,affordable and secure energy supply to meet growing needs.Cost-competitive low-carbon solutions already exist,such as solar,wind and passenger electric vehicles,and they represent a significant economic op

51、portunity.Getting to net zero by 2050,however,requires accelerated deployment momentum that needs to be supported by strong government commitment and an enabling regulatory environment for project financing and investment.2.1.Scenarios This report builds and expands on the results of the New Energy

52、Outlook 2024,BNEFs proprietary energy and climate scenarios publication,with a focus on six key markets China,India,Japan,South Korea,Indonesia and Vietnam.The New Energy Outlook models the power,transport,industry,and buildings sectors to 2050 using bottom-up sub-sector models for 12 countries and

53、seven regions,with additional power sector analysis for 19 markets.It covers 16 sub-sectors and more than 75 decarbonization technologies.Table 3:Two scenarios in the New Energy Outlook Economic Transition Scenario(ETS)Net Zero Scenario(NZS)Exploratory base case which describes how the power,industr

54、y,transport,and buildings sectors might evolve as a result of cost-based technology changes.Consistent with a 2.6C warming outcome.Assumes no further policy support for energy transition beyond existing measures.Low-carbon transition is largely limited to the power and transport sectors.Normative cl

55、imate scenario which describes a tough but achievable stretch to get on track for net zero by 2050 by meeting sectoral carbon budgets.Consistent with a 1.75C warming outcome.No overshoot or reliance on net-negative emissions post-2050.Fully decarbonizes power,transport,industry,and buildings by 2050

56、.Uses bottom-up sub-sector models,instead of top-down general equilibrium model or integrated assessment models.Uses consistent macro-economic inputs across both scenarios.Leverages proprietary data and expertise of 200 analysts.Models at yearly granularity for transport,industry,and buildings secto

57、rs and hourly granularity in the power sector to 2050.Source:BloombergNEF The base-case scenario used in BNEF research is our Economic Transition Scenario(ETS).This scenario employs a combination of near-term market analysis,least-cost modeling,consumer uptake,and trend-based analysis to describe th

58、e deployment and diffusion of commercially available technologies in the absence of new policy regimes.It reveals the Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicl

59、y displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.7 underlying economic fundamentals driving the energy transition.The Net

60、 Zero Scenario(NZS)uses similar least-cost optimization but shows a plausible pathway to achieve the main goals of the Paris Agreement and stay well below 2C of global warming,reaching net zero by 2050.2.2.Emissions Under both the ETS and NZS,energy-related emissions in Asia Pacific peaked in 2023 a

61、nd are on a sustained decline to 2050.Achieving net zero by mid-century requires emissions to decline sharply,starting immediately,with the power sector leading decarbonization efforts.The cumulative emissions gap over 2024-2050 between BNEFs ETS and NZS for Asia Pacific is 226GtCO2.Bridging this ga

62、p is no small task.Regional governments will need to bolster policy measures to further drive decarbonization efforts,particularly in hard-to-abate sectors.New and existing decarbonizing technologies will need to scale up,requiring a shift in investment paradigms,and regulatory and market designs.Fi

63、gure 3:Asia Pacifics energy-related emissions and net-zero carbon budget Source:BloombergNEF.Note:NZS is Net Zero Scenario,ETS is Economic Transition Scenario.Non-energy use is non-combusted fuel consumption;consumed mostly in industry(chemicals).GtCO2 is billion metric tons of carbon dioxide.Even t

64、he ETS sees a substantial transition toward low-carbon energy.In this scenario,Asia Pacifics energy transition is driven primarily by the impact of current policies and economically competitive,commercially-at-scale clean technologies.These measures alone see the regions emissions fall by 24%from cu

65、rrent levels to 13.6 billion metric tons of CO2(GtCO2)by 2050(consistent with a 2.6C warming trajectory),less than half of the 29.6GtCO2 by 2050 under a counterfactual no transition scenario in which there is no further progress on decarbonization(Figure 4).The ETS assumes no further support for cle

66、an technologies beyond existing measures,although it hinges on a level playing field that allows these solutions to access markets and compete with incumbent technologies.This sets the stage for the regions renewables capacity to more than double by 2030 and then quadruple by 2050,from current level

67、s.With that growth,fossil fuels are Net Zero Scenario(1.75C)Economic Transition Scenario(2.6C)202300.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9102468101214161820200020102020203020402050Billion metric tons of CO2HydrogenPowerEnergy industryNon-energy useOther sectorsRailAviationShippingRoadCommercial buildingsResiden

68、tial buildingsOther industryChemicalsCementAluminumSteelNZSETS2024-2050 cumulative emissions gap,ETS versus NZS:226GtCO2 Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publ

69、icly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.8 toppled as the dominant source of electricity generation as renewab

70、les cross a 50%share of supply at the end of this decade.Figure 4:Energy-related CO2 emissions in Asia Pacific by market Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ETS is Economic Transition Scenario,NZS is Net Zero Scenario.The no transition scenario is a hypothetical counterfactual that models no further improvemen

71、t in decarbonization and energy efficiency.Refer to Appendix A for full list of geographies included.The NZS shows that while the more ambitious target of 1.5C looks increasingly out of reach,there are still plausible pathways to stay within 1.75C of warming.Still,significant effort is needed to ach

72、ieve the pace of emissions reductions required.Under the NZS,aggregate emissions across Asia Pacific decline 37%by 2030 and 84%by 2040 against 2023 levels,and hit net zero by 2050,consistent with Paris Agreement goals to keep temperatures below 2C above pre-industrial levels.The power sector undergo

73、es a radical transformation as the regions renewables capacity increases over sevenfold by mid-century from current levels.The use of unabated fossil fuels is effectively phased out of power systems by 2040,while renewables share of supply surpasses 80%by 2050 from 28%today.2.3.Abatement There is no

74、 cookie-cutter approach for the decarbonization of Asia Pacific energy systems.Each markets optimal portfolio of decarbonization technologies will be influenced by local policies,access to resources,and geographical constraints.Scaling up of mature,commercially ready technologies,such as renewable e

75、nergy and electrification,is critical under both scenarios.To stay on track for net zero,efforts to bring emerging technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage to commercial readiness is vital,in addition to accelerating and intensifying renewable deployment and electrification effor

76、ts.ETSNZSNo transition051015202530200020102020203020402050Billion metric tons of CO2Other Asia-PacificSoutheast AsiaAustraliaJapan and South KoreaIndiaChina Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into a

77、n electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.9 Figure 5:Energy-related carbon

78、dioxide emissions reductions from fuel combustion by measure in Asia Pacific by scenario Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF.Note:The no transition scenario is a hypothetical counterfactual that models no further improvement in decarbonization and energy efficiency.In

79、power and transport,it assumes the future fuel mix does not evolve from 2023(2027 in the shipping sector).For all other sectors,the counterfactual to the Net Zero Scenario is the Economic Transition Scenario.Clean power includes renewables and nuclear,and excludes carbon capture and storage(CCS),hyd

80、rogen and bioenergy,which are allocated to their respective categories.Energy efficiency includes demand-side efficiency gains and more recycling in industry.Includes Carbon removals needed to offset incomplete capture from point-source carbon capture processes,which are up to 90%complete.In the ETS

81、,clean power accounts for over 70%of the emissions avoided across Asia Pacific between today and 2050,compared with a no transition scenario(Figure 5).The electrification of end-use sectors,including road transport,buildings and industry,accounts for another 11%.Improved energy efficiency also lower

82、s overall energy demand and helps avoid 13%of abated emissions between now and 2050.Despite the significant decrease in carbon emissions under the ETS,efforts fall short of delivering an emissions reduction consistent with the Paris Agreement goals.Instead,its emissions profile is consistent with a

83、carbon budget corresponding to a 2.6C temperature rise.Getting to net zero by mid-century requires an almost complete phase-out of unabated fossil fuel use in the entire energy system across Asia Pacific.A much wider suite of decarbonization technologies will be required to achieve this across clean

84、 power,electrification,fuels,and industrial processes.In the NZS,clean power is still the single biggest contributor of emissions reductions across Asia Pacific,responsible for half(249GtCO2)of the regions emissions reductions over 2024-2050,compared with 73%(190GtCO2)in the ETS.To be on track for n

85、et zero,Asia Pacific needs to see deeper electrification of end-use applications compared to the ETS,and faster.Electrification is the second-largest driver of emissions abatement under the NZS,accounting for 17%of total emissions reductions during this period,compared with 11%in the ETS.Energy effi

86、ciency accounts for a sizable 9%of emissions abatement.No transitionETS202305101520253035200020102020203020402050Billion metric tons of CO2CoalGasOilNo transitionNZSETS202305101520253035200020102020203020402050Billion metric tons of CO2-50050222222CCSHydrogenBioenergyHeatElectrificationClean powerFu

87、el switchingEnergy efficiencyCarbon removalsCoal Gas Oil Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without

88、the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.10 Emerging technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage play a larger role under the NZS,accounting for 4%and 14%of

89、abatement over 2024-2050,respectively.These technologies are particularly crucial in addressing emissions from hard-to-abate industries in the NZS,but fail to scale up to any meaningful level in the base-case ETS due to a combination of insufficient policy support and economic competitiveness.Carbon

90、 removals in the New Energy Outlook The New Energy Outlook scenarios are focused on technology pathways addressing emissions associated with fossil fuel combustion using primarily technologies that are already commercially available.The use of carbon removals under the Net Zero Scenario is limited t

91、o addressing residual emissions from carbon capture and storage.Carbon removals may well play a role in the decarbonization of the wider economy,particularly to deal with non-fossil fuel combustion emissions associated with land use,land-use change and forestry(LULUCF).Scaling up carbon removal tech

92、nologies such as direct air capture will be critical for addressing LULUCF emissions.For more information on emission constraints used in New Energy Outlook modeling,see Appendix B.Economic Transition Scenario The makeup of technologies used to abate emissions can vary significantly across markets i

93、n Asia Pacific,due to differences in relative technology costs,impact of current policies,and available resources.Figure 6 illustrates the differences between the technology drivers that bring about emissions abatement across four selected markets in Asia Pacific in the ETS.In China,the combination

94、of near-term policies and an economics-led pathway in the ETS sees carbon emissions decline 45%from 10,126 million metric tons of carbon dioxide(MtCO2)to 5,527MtCO2 over 2024-2050.Against the no transition counterfactual,switching power generation from fossil fuels to clean power is by far the bigge

95、st contributor to its emissions reductions,accounting for 80%of abatement during this period.Electrification emerges as the second-most important decarbonization vector,responsible for 12%of emissions reductions.Indias energy-related emissions increase in our base-case scenario,from 2,621MtCO2 in 20

96、24 to 3,117MtCO2 by 2050,peaking at 3,626MtCO2 in 2038,driven by a rapidly growing population and economic output.Substituting clean power for fossil fuel generation accounts for the largest share(63%)of abated emissions over 2024-2050,followed by energy efficiency(27%)and electrification(7%).Southe

97、ast Asias emissions also increase in the ETS from 1,853MtCO2 to 2,376MtCO2 during this period,peaking at 2,594MtCO2 in 2040.Clean power is responsible for half of total emissions abated,followed by energy efficiency,which accounts for another 31%of emissions abatement during this period.Electrificat

98、ion accounts for 13%of abatement.Japan and South Koreas energy-related emissions peaked in 2013 and decline 35%from 1,498MtCO2 to 970MtCO2 over 2024-2050 in our ETS.Clean power abates 41%of emissions against the no transition counterfactual during this time,followed by energy efficiency(26%)and elec

99、trification(23%).Energy efficiency in the New Energy Outlook Emissions avoided through energy efficiency measures are hard to isolate or quantify.Energy efficiency captures a range of demand-side reduction in energy intensity to deliver the same Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,202

100、4 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyrig

101、ht and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.11 useful energy,ranging from more efficient electrical household appliances to improved industrial processes.BNEF accounts for these in its general electricity demand forecast models.Underlying our projections of country electricity-demand gro

102、wth are two fundamental drivers:population and economic output.Electricity consumption tends to increase with an expansion of these two,most notably in economies with low to medium GDP per capita.Economies at advanced stages of development tend to experience much slower demand growth or even a decli

103、ne in electricity consumption as their GDP continues to expand.The forecast is therefore already accounting for energy efficiency improvements.For the New Energy Outlook 2024,we show emissions abated via energy efficiency as the delta between our general demand forecast and a no transition scenario,

104、in which demand for useful energy continues to evolve but there is no improvement in energy intensity or decoupling between economic growth and electricity demand.The emissions that would have occurred without these improvements can be attributed to energy efficiency.Figure 6:Carbon dioxide emission

105、s reductions from fuel combustion in selected Asia Pacific markets,Economic Transition Scenario versus no transition scenario China India Southeast Asia Japan and South Korea Source:BloombergNEF.Note:GtCO2 is billion metric tons of carbon dioxide.ETS is the Economic Transition Scenario.The no transi

106、tion scenario is a hypothetical counterfactual that models no further improvement in decarbonization and energy efficiency.In power and transport,it assumes the future fuel mix does not evolve from 2023(2027 for shipping).Clean power includes renewables and nuclear,and excludes carbon capture and st

107、orage(CCS),hydrogen and bioenergy,which are allocated to their respective categories.Energy efficiency includes demand-side efficiency gains and more recycling in industry.Includes Carbon removals needed to offset incomplete capture from point-source carbon capture processes.Clean power does the hea

108、vy lifting in an economics-led decarbonization pathway Despite the differences in each markets decarbonization pathway,clean powers role as the single biggest contributor to emissions abatement is a common theme across all Asia Pacific markets in both scenarios.The substitution of clean power for fo

109、ssil fuel generation in the ETS sees solar and wind account for an increasingly larger share of supply across Asia Pacific(Figure 7).The degree of renewable penetration,however,varies between markets based on relative technology costs,impact of current policies and available resources.20230246810121

110、416200020252050GtCO22023012345678200020252050GtCO22023012345200020252050GtCO220230.00.51.01.52.0200020252050GtCO220230.020.0200020252050CoalGasOilBioenergyHeatElectrificationClean powerFuel switchingEnergy efficiencyCarbon removalsNo transitionETS Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2

111、024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyr

112、ight and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.12 China experiences a rapid switch to clean power this side of 2030 as the share of generation from solar and wind more than doubles from 25%today to 52%by the end of the decade.After 2030,their share of supply grows further,but slower,to re

113、ach 70%by 2050.Hydro also accounts for 11%of supply for renewables to make up over 80%of power by mid-century.Clean power also includes nuclear,which sees its share of supply rise from 5%to 9%over 2024-2050.Fossil fuel generation makes up 9%of supply in 2050,down from 54%today.Japans share of supply

114、 from renewables reaches 64%by 2050,the majority of which comes from solar and wind which increases from 12%today to 22%by 2030.Further cost declines see this figure more than quadruple from current levels to 50%by 2050.Hydro and bioenergy are responsible for the additional 14%.Nuclear sees a declin

115、ing share,at 6%of supply,down from 10%today.The share of output from fossil fuels declines from 65%to 29%over 2024-2050.In South Korea,solar and wind penetration grows from 7%today,to 12%by 2030 and 23%by 2050.It relies on nuclear as a source of clean power generation.In 2024,generation from nuclear

116、 accounts for 32%of demand.By 2050,the influx of cheaper solar and wind sees nuclears share halve to 16%.Figure 7:Share of electricity generation by technology in selected Asia Pacific markets,Economic Transition Scenario China Japan South Korea India Indonesia Vietnam Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Other

117、 renewables comprise all other non-combustible renewable energy,including hydro,bioenergy,geothermal and solar thermal.In Indonesia,solar and wind penetration grows from a negligible level today to 4%by 2030.During this decade,Indonesia relies more on other renewables like geothermal,which sees its

118、share of supply double from 5%to 10%over 2024-2030.Solar and winds influence 0%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%002350CoalGasOilNuclearOther renewablesSolarOnshore windOffshore wind Asia Pacifics E

119、nergy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information

120、on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.13 increases after 2030,growing more than 10-fold,to 42%,over 2030-2050,while the share from other renewables remains largely flat.Indonesias relatively young coal fleet mean over one-third of its power st

121、ill comes from coal-fired capacity in 2050,down from 63%in 2024.In Vietnam,solar and wind already account for 14%of supply a comparably higher share than many of its peers in Southeast Asia,driven by generous feed-in tariffs to incentivize uptake a few years ago.Overall,renewables already make up ne

122、arly half of Vietnams generation with hydro supplying 36%of power in 2024.By 2050,renewables make up three-quarters of generation as solar and wind penetration more than quadruples to 60%compared to today.Hydros share of supply falls to 13%by 2050 due to limited untapped potential and in favor of ch

123、eaper wind and solar.Like Indonesia,Vietnam also has a relatively young coal fleet.Hence,fossil fuels still make up a quarter of generation by mid-century,with coal accounting for 17%,down from 41%today.Net Zero Scenario Accelerated progress over the next 10 years is critical Early emissions reducti

124、ons are crucial for Asia Pacific in the NZS.The 2024-2030 period is dominated by rapid power-sector decarbonization,energy efficiency gains,and rapid acceleration of carbon capture and storage deployment.Wind and solar alone are responsible for half of net emissions abatement during this seven-year

125、period,contributing 5.4GtCO2 of net reductions in the NZS 35%more than in the ETS.Figure 8:Net carbon dioxide emissions reductions by period and measure/technology in Asia Pacific,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario versus no transition scenario Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero S

126、cenario Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Data shows the net contribution of each technology to carbon emissions abatement by time period compared to a counterfactual no transition scenario in which there is no further action toward decarbonization.Time period lengths differ.CCS is carbon capture and storage

127、.Other renewables comprise all other non-combustible renewable energy in electricity generation,including hydro,geothermal and solar thermal.Energy efficiency includes demand-side efficiency gains and more recycling in industry.While the deployment of renewables continues across 2031-2040,the import

128、ance of electrification grows.Electrifying end uses in industry,transport,and buildings accounts for 25%024681012142024-20302031-20402041-2050Billion metric tons of CO2 avoided024681012142024-20302031-20402041-2050Billion metric tons of CO2 avoidedWindSolarOther renewablesNuclearCarbon removalsEnerg

129、y efficiencyFuel switchingElectrificationHeatBioenergyHydrogenCCSClean power Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of deriv

130、ative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.14 of the emissions avoided during this period in the NZS.This equates to 3.3GtCO2 of net abated emissions almost

131、 quadruple that in the ETS.Abatement from hydrogen and bioenergy also rises in importance as carbon budgets for hard-to-abate sectors tighten.The third period from 2041-2050 relies on a mix of different technologies aimed at hard-to-abate sectors,with hydrogen accounting for 14%,or 0.77GtCO2 of net

132、emissions abated almost eight times that in the ETS.Tough choices await beyond clean power and electrification To understand the scale of change needed to reach net zero,we quantify the contribution of emissions-saving technologies and other measures,and compare this with a no transition pathway,whi

133、ch charts a route whereby we make no further efforts to decarbonize(Figure 9).Getting to net zero requires an almost complete phase-out of unabated fossil fuel use in Asia Pacifics energy sector.Like in the ETS,switching power generation from fossil fuels to clean power sources is the single biggest

134、 contributor to the regions emissions reduction in the NZS.However,a more diverse set of technologies will be required to achieve net zero some of which may currently not be economically competitive or commercially available at scale,like CCS and hydrogen,which are too costly under the ETS.The level

135、 to which these emerging technologies must scale to aid efforts to reach net zero varies across markets.In China,the need to decarbonize on a net-zero trajectory compliant with Paris Agreement goals sees its emissions decline 45%from 10,245MtCO2 to 5,588MtCO2 between 2024 and 2030.Over the next deca

136、de,emissions decline a further 72%before reaching net zero by 2050.Clean power accounts for 59%of emissions reductions over 2024-2050 in the NZS.Deeper and more rapid electrification of Chinas end use applications makes it the second-largest driver of its emissions reductions in the NZS,making up 17

137、%of abatement during this period.CCS and hydrogen make up 11%and 3%of Chinas emissions reductions in the NZS over 2024-2050,respectively.China accounts for nearly 60%of all emissions abated in Asia Pacific over 2024-2050 underscoring the importance of its decarbonization journey to the overall regio

138、ns net zero transition.Indias emissions decline 18%from 2,638MtCO2 today to 2,156MtCO2 by 2030 in the NZS.Over 2031-2040,emissions fall a further 64%to 638MtCO2 before reaching net zero by 2050.Clean power makes up nearly half of its emissions abatement by 2050,followed by CCS(17%),energy efficiency

139、(14%),and electrification of end-use systems(12%).Hydrogen and bioenergy together account for an additional 8%of emissions reductions.Southeast Asias emissions decline 20%from 1,850MtCO2 to 1,478MtCO2 over 2024-2030.Emissions decline a further 64%over the next decade to 490MtCO2 in 2040 before reach

140、ing net zero by 2050 in our NZS.Clean power accounts for the largest share(35%)of abated emissions over 2024-2050,followed by electrification(19%),CCS(19%)and energy efficiency(14%).Hydrogen and bioenergy each account for 6%of additional emissions reductions during this time.Japan and South Koreas e

141、missions decline 40%from 1,504MtCO2 in 2024 to 908MtCO2 in 2030.Between 2031 and 2040,emissions decline a further 75%to 206MtCO2 before reaching net zero by mid-century under the NZS.Both clean power and CCS each account for just under 30%of emissions abatement by 2050,followed by electrification(19

142、%),and energy efficiency(12%).Hydrogen and bioenergy together account for another 11%of abatement during this period.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly

143、 displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.15 Figure 9:Carbon dioxide emissions reductions from fuel combustion in s

144、elected Asia Pacific markets,Net Zero Scenario versus no transition scenario China India Southeast Asia Japan and South Korea Source:BloombergNEF.Note:GtCO2 is billion metric tons of carbon dioxide.ETS is the Economic Transition Scenario.NZS is the Net Zero Scenario.The no transition scenario is a h

145、ypothetical counterfactual that models no further improvement in decarbonization and energy efficiency.In power and transport,it assumes the future fuel mix does not evolve from 2023(2027 for shipping).Clean power includes renewables and nuclear,and excludes carbon capture and storage(CCS),hydrogen

146、and bioenergy,which are allocated to their respective categories.Energy efficiency includes demand-side efficiency gains and more recycling in industry.Includes Carbon removals needed to offset incomplete capture from point-source carbon capture processes.The net zero power system undergoes a radica

147、l transformation,built around renewables In the NZS,power systems across Asia Pacific markets shift from relying on unabated,baseload coal and gas power plants,to ones dominated by variable renewable energy.The shift to cleaner power happens much faster,at a bigger scale and more fundamentally than

148、in the ETS.Low-carbon dispatchable alternatives,which can act as backup for renewables whenever they are unable to meet load,take the place of carbon-emitting power plants.In the NZS,the most cost-effective option that is available in the short term is CCS,outcompeting hydrogen and long duration sto

149、rage in most economies.Nuclear also steps up to decarbonize the power sectors in Asia Pacific,especially in markets with existing nuclear capacity.However,we expect it to continue to need strategic government support,which limits its total deployment out to 2050.Our net zero modeling assumes an imme

150、diate moratorium on new unabated coal build,including the near-term pipeline incorporated in our base-case.Under the NZS,polluting coal plants start to retire at a faster pace than under the ETS,before the end of their technical lives,to remain compliant with a carbon budget that achieves a 1.75C wa

151、rming outcome by 2050 with no overshoot or net-negative emissions after 2050.In China,the share of generation accounted for by unabated fossil fuels falls from 54%to 12%during 2024-2030 and is almost completely phased out by 2038.Fossil fuel generation paired with CCS starts to scale during this dec

152、ade,making up 11%of supply in China by 2030 before falling to 6%by 2050.Nuclear also plays a larger role in the NZS,supplying 11%of Chinas electricity by 2050,up from 5%today.These technologies are crucial to provide backup for solar and wind,which see their share of generation more than double from

153、 24%today to 54%by the end of this decade,and further rising to 74%by 2050.Onshore wind 20230246810121416200020252050GtCO22023012345678200020252050GtCO22023012345200020252050GtCO220230.00.51.01.52.0200020252050GtCO20.010.0CoalGasOilCCSHydrogenBioenergyHeatElectrificationClean powerFuel switchingEner

154、gy efficiencyCarbon removalsNo transitionETSNZS Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior

155、 written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.16 emerges as the most important source of generation,making up 41%of Chinas power mix by mid-century compared to 27%from solar.In Japan,unaba

156、ted fossil fuels see their share of supply decline from 65%today to 18%by 2030,before being largely phased out in the mid-2040s.CCS-paired coal and gas make up 11%of total supply by 2030 before falling to 8%by mid-century.Nuclear restarts play a more significant role under the NZS,increasing the sha

157、re of nuclear power from 10%today to 22%in 2030,before declining to 10%by 2050 in favor of generation from cheaper,renewable alternatives.Nuclear and CCS-paired fossil fuels help firm up generation from solar and wind,which make up nearly 70%of supply by 2050,up from 12%today,and 31%in 2030.Overall,

158、renewables make up 82%of generation by mid-century.Government policy(such as auctions)and land constraints see offshore wind emerge as Japans largest source of electricity by 2050,accounting for a quarter of total supply,followed closely by onshore wind,which makes up just over one-fifth.In South Ko

159、rea,generation from unabated fossil fuels falls from 48%to 17%over 2024-2030 before being phased out by 2050.CCS-paired fossil fuels supply 20%of the countrys power by 2030 before falling to 16%by 2050.Nuclear plays a significant role in South Koreas generation mix but its share of the total halves

160、from 32%in 2024 to 16%by 2050.Solar and wind,meanwhile,see their share of output rise from 7%today to 18%by 2030,before rising further to 62%by 2050.Solar emerges as the largest source of generation by 2050 under the NZS,responsible for 26%of supply.Indonesias share of generation from unabated fossi

161、l fuels sees a steep decline from 83%today to 29%by 2030,before being phased out in the mid-2040s.CCS in power generation begins to scale this decade to account for nearly 30%of supply by 2030 in the NZS before falling to 8%by mid-century.Nuclear,which does not feature in Indonesia under the ETS,acc

162、ounts for 6%of the countrys power supply by 2050 in the NZS.Wind and solar,meanwhile,see their share of Indonesias output rise from a negligible level in 2024 to 20%in 2030,rising to nearly 70%by 2050.Solar emerges as the most important source of generation by mid-century in the NZS,accounting for 4

163、9%of all output.Vietnams share of generation from unabated fossil fuels,much from its relatively young coal fleet,declines quickly from 53%to 19%during 2024-2030 before being phased out by the mid-2040s.CCS-paired fossil fuel generation increases in importance simultaneously making up 12%of generati

164、on by the end of this decade before seeing its share fall to 8%by mid-century.Vietnam also produces electricity via nuclear in the NZS,starting in the mid-2030s.The technology makes up 8%of Vietnams supply by 2050.Much of the countrys renewables growth comes from wind and solar their share of genera

165、tion grows from 12%in 2024 to 38%by 2030 and 71%by 2050.Hydro plays a similar role in Vietnam in the NZS as it does in the ETS its share of output gradually declines from around 34%in 2024 to 11%in 2050.Solar is the most significant source of generation in Vietnam by 2050 under the NZS,accounting fo

166、r 40%of total output.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloombe

167、rg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.17 Figure 10:Share of electricity generation by technology in selected Asia Pacific markets,Net Zero Scenario China Japan South Korea India Indonesia Vietnam Source:Bloo

168、mbergNEF.Note:Includes electricity generation for hydrogen production under the Net Zero Scenario.Other renewables comprise all other non-combustible renewable energy,including hydro,bioenergy,geothermal and solar thermal.CCS is carbon capture and storage.2.4.Investment Decarbonizing Asia Pacifics e

169、nergy systems will require a substantial scale-up of capital directed toward low-carbon assets and infrastructure.Under both the ETS and NZS,the energy investment opportunity between 2024 and 2050 totals$74 trillion and$89 trillion respectively.The falling costs of some low-carbon solutions,such as

170、electric vehicles and clean power,and new policy commitments are closing the spending gap between the two scenarios.However,vastly different investment choices need to be made if net zero by mid-century is to be achieved.Investment and spending are only 20%higher in the Net Zero Scenario In the ETS,

171、companies,financial institutions,governments,and consumers invest a total of$74 trillion on energy-related infrastructure,technology,and products(Figure 11)in Asia Pacific by 2050,representing more than 40%of the total global spend.This is split across$22 trillion for energy supply(both fossil fuels

172、 and low-carbon)and$52 trillion for demand-side products(almost entirely for vehicles,both electric and internal combustion engine-based).0%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%0023500%20%40%60%80%100%002350CoalCoal with CCSG

173、asGas with CCSOilHydrogenNuclearOther renewablesSolarOnshore windOffshore wind Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of der

174、ivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.18 Total investment across Asia Pacific in the Net Zero Scenario is only 20%higher,at$89 trillion also around 4

175、0%of the global figure.This comparatively small difference between the scenarios is because EVs are expected to reach cost-competitiveness with ICE vehicles in the coming years,meaning demand-side spending is only slightly higher than in the ETS at$54 trillion.But supply-side investment is 57%larger

176、 in the NZS than in the ETS at$35 trillion.This is because clean energy technologies are more capital expenditure intensive than traditional energy sources.That said,operating expenditure is excluded from this analysis and would likely be higher for fossil-fuel technologies.Figure 11:Asia Pacific en

177、ergy investment and spending across 2024-2050,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ICE is internal combustion engine.EV is electric vehicle.The numbers above the bars indicate cumulative investment and spending figures from 2024 to 2050.Investment in bioenergy

178、is included under renewables.Investment in low-carbon technologies accelerates under the Net Zero Scenario BNEFs annual Energy Transition Investment Trends report is the definitive review of investment and spending on net-zero aligned technology and infrastructure.The report estimated that around$84

179、0 billion was invested in low-carbon technologies across Asia Pacific in 2023.Using the same scope,the ETS requires this figure to rise to an average of$1.2 trillion per year from 2024 to 2030 51%greater than the current pace of investment(Figure 12).The scale-up in the NZS is breathtaking,requiring

180、 annualized investment to triple to$2.3 trillion over 2024-2030.This figure rises a further 40%over the next decade.52.321.754.234.5DemandSupplyDemandSupplyETSETSNZSNZSConventional industryClean industryICE vehicle salesEV salesHeat pumpsHydrogenCarbon capture and storagePower gridsNuclearEnergy sto

181、rageRenewablesFossil-fuel powerFossil-fuel processesSupply-sideDemand-side$74 trillion$89 trillionNet Zero ScenarioEconomic Transition Scenario Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic

182、system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.19 Figure 12:Energy transition investment in A

183、sia Pacific 2023 estimate versus required annualized levels across 2024-2050,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Value for 2023 is an estimate.Excludes investment in fossil-fuel processes and power and conventiona

184、l energy,and spending on internal combustion engine vehicles,which are not captured in 2023 investment figures reported in BNEFs Energy Transition Investment Trends report(web|terminal).CCS is carbon capture and storage.The two scenarios totals are in the same ballpark,but represent fundamentally di

185、fferent choices The 20%difference in the investment totals across Asia Pacific in the NZS and ETS is in the same ballpark by 2050,and lower operating costs for clean energy could narrow the gap further.But the difference masks large changes in investment choices,with the NZS representing a huge leap

186、 in the speed of clean technology deployments(Figure 12).This underscores the need for stable,long-term policy signals empowered by strong political will to divert investment away from fossil-fuel based pathways and toward low-carbon solutions at the scale and speed required by the NZS.Investment le

187、vels can also differ between markets within Asia Pacific based on the current state of their respective energy transitions(Figure 13).China pulls in$40.7 trillion of investment over 2024-2050,or 55%of the Asia Pacific total,into its energy system under the base-case ETS,underscoring its outsized rol

188、e in the regions energy transition.In the NZS,total investments into China are only 14%higher at$46.3 trillion,or 52%of the region-wide total.The increase is primarily driven by supply-side investments which are 35%higher in the NZS.By 2050,investments in renewables and energy storage total$5.2 tril

189、lion to get to net zero in China 45%higher than in the base case.Investment in the power grid is also up 39%to$4.7 trillion in the NZS,to accommodate greater levels of renewable penetration and higher rates of electrification.The NZS also sees more than a tripling of investment in nuclear compared t

190、o the ETS up to$0.7 trillion by 2050.CCS and hydrogen,which do not feature in the ETS,require$1.1 trillion and$0.9 trillion in investment,respectively.On the demand side,spending on EVs totals$27.2 trillion in the NZS over 2024-2050,up 21%compared with the ETS.Spending on heat pumps is around$0.5 tr

191、illion,around five times higher than in the base-case.India represents a$12.4 trillion investment opportunity in the NZS 34%more than in the ETS.The increase is again driven primarily by supply-side investments,which more than double under the NZS to$6.8 trillion.Investment in renewables and energy

192、storage increases 8401,2731,7962,03005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00020232024-20302031-20402041-2050$billion(real 2023)+51%+41%+13%8402,3493,3002,99705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00020232024-20302031-20402041-2050$billion(real 2023)Clean industryElectrified heatElectrified transportHydro

193、genCCSEnergy storageNuclearPower gridsRenewable energy+179%+40%-9%Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works

194、 without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.20 137%to$2.2 trillion over 2024-2050 to get to net zero.The NZS sees a quintupling in investment on nuclear,totaling$0.3 tr

195、illion during this period.Power grid investment is up to$1.8 trillion an 88%increase over the base-case ETS to get to net zero by mid-century.On the flip side,investments across the fossil-fuel value chains declines 46%in the NZS to around$0.94 trillion compared to the ETS.Demand-side spending decli

196、nes around 8%in the NZS relative to the base case to$5.6 trillion,driven by lower spending on vehicles as EVs become cheaper.Spending on EVs nearly doubles to$4.4 trillion in the NZS compared to the ETS,equivalent to 36%of the scenarios overall capital expenditure.Overall spending on vehicles,includ

197、ing ICEs,declines nearly 16%in the NZS compared to the ETS.Figure 13:Cumulative energy investment and spending across 2024-2050 in selected Asia Pacific markets,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario China India Japan Indonesia South Korea Vietnam Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ICE is internal

198、 combustion engine.The numbers above the bars indicate cumulative investment and spending figures from 2024 to 2050.Japans energy system requires$7.7 trillion in investment over 2024-2050 to get to net zero a 38%premium over the ETS.Supply-side investment doubles to$2.0 trillion in the NZS,while dem

199、and side investment increases 21%compared to the ETS.Investment in renewables and energy storage in the NZS is nearly$1.0 trillion,a 151%premium over the 29.311.430.915.5Demand SupplyDemand Supply$40.7 trillion$46.3 trillionNZSETS6.13.25.66.8Demand SupplyDemand Supply$9.3 trillion$12.4 trillionNZSET

200、S4.80.85.72.0Demand SupplyDemand Supply$5.6 trillion$7.7 trillionNZSETS1.71.61.72.1Demand SupplyDemand Supply$3.3 trillion$3.8 trillionNZSETS1.60.41.71.1Demand SupplyDemand Supply$2.0 trillion$2.7 trillionNZSETS0.90.71.01.4Demand SupplyDemand Supply$1.5 trillion$2.4 trillionNZSETS01Fossil-fuel proce

201、ssesFossil-fuel powerRenewablesEnergy storageNuclearPower gridsCarbon capture and storageHydrogenHeat pumpsElectric vehicle salesICE vehicle salesClean industryConventional industry Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be

202、reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.21 base-

203、case.Power grids require 67%more investment than in the ETS to get to net zero,totaling$0.7 trillion over 2024-2050.Spending on CCS and hydrogen,which play a prominent role in getting to net zero,is$0.2 trillion and$0.1 trillion,respectively.Investments across the fossil-fuel value chain totals just

204、$0.009 trillion during this period in the NZS,75%lower than in the ETS.On the demand side,spending on heat pumps totals$0.1 trillion in Japan under the NZS,up nearly 80%compared to the ETS.EV sales are almost twice the amount in the ETS to get to net zero,equaling$4.8 trillion.Indonesia requires$3.8

205、 trillion in investment to get to net zero by 2050,just 15%more than in the ETS.Supply-side investment over 2024-2050 hits$2.1 trillion,32%more than in the ETS.Investment on renewables and energy storage reaches$0.9 trillion,a 138%premium over the ETS.Investment in power grids also increases 66%over

206、 the ETS,totaling$0.5 trillion.Investment in CCS and hydrogen in Indonesia during this period totals$0.2 trillion and$0.05 trillion,respectively,in the NZS.Investment across the fossil-fuel value chain totals$0.5 trillion,48%less than in the ETS.Demand-side investment is the same across both scenari

207、os at$1.7 trillion,but the makeup of the investment changes significantly between them.In the NZS,spending on EVs during 2024-2050 in Indonesia is$1.5 trillion 88%more than in the ETS,while spending on ICE vehicles is 90%lower at$0.1 trillion.In the NZS,South Koreas energy system represents$2.7 tril

208、lion of investment and spending over 2024-2050,37%higher than in the ETS.Supply side investment almost triples in the NZS compared to the base case,reaching$1.1 trillion by 2050.Investment in renewables and energy storage almost quadruples over the ETS to$0.4 trillion to reach net zero by mid-centur

209、y.Spending on nuclear also increases 23%to$0.04 trillion to get to net zero by 2050.Around$0.3 trillion is invested in power grids over 2024-2050 in South Korea under the NZS,a 73%premium over the ETS.Investment across the fossil-fuel value chain totals just$0.01 trillion in the NZS,68%lower than in

210、 the ETS.Demand-side investment rises just 3%in the NZS compared to the ETS,but the makeup of the spending varies drastically between the two scenarios.Spending on EVs,for instance,reaches$1.3 trillion between 2024 and 2050 to reach net zero,a 46%increase over the ETS.At the same time,spending on IC

211、E vehicles declines 73%to$0.2 trillion in the NZS.In the NZS,Vietnam requires$2.4 trillion in investment,54%more than in the ETS.Supply side investment doubles to$1.4 trillion under the NZS during this period.Investment in renewables and energy storage jumps 127%compared to the base-case to reach ne

212、t zero,requiring$0.6 trillion over 2024-2050.Around$0.05 trillion is also invested in nuclear during this period in the NZS.Power grid investment jumps 81%over the ETS to$0.3 trillion in the NZS.Simultaneously,investment across the fossil-fuel value chain declines 49%in the NZS relative to the ETS,t

213、otaling$0.1 trillion.Nearly$0.3 trillion is also spent across CCS and hydrogen to help scale up these emerging technologies in the NZS.Total demand side spending in the NZS is around 14%higher in Vietnam compared to the ETS.EV sales jump 92%between 2024 and 2050 in the NZS relative to the ETS to equ

214、al$0.8 trillion,while spending on ICE vehicles declines 87%relative to the ETS to$0.05 trillion over the same period.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly

215、 displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.22 2.5.Assessing the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions agai

216、nst NEO scenarios This section assesses the ambition levels of six Asia Pacific markets Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)their climate plans to help meet the goals of the Paris Agreement against the two scenarios developed in the New Energy Outlook 2024.Under the 2015 Paris Agreement,countri

217、es committed to collectively limit the increase in the global average temperature above pre-industrial levels to“well below 2C”,and to“pursue efforts”to limit warming to 1.5C.The latest UN assessment of NDCs concluded that signatories of the treaty need to ratchet up their emissions pledges to meet

218、either of these pathways,2 and BNEF analysis shows that all six of the markets outlined in Table 4 have scope to examine potential opportunities to increase the ambition of their NDCs.Parties to the deals are due to submit their next set of NDCs over the next year.A step change in ambition is needed

219、 Many parties need to ratchet up the ambition of their NDC targets to get on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.Crucially,policymakers will also need to implement sufficient support to achieve these ambitions.The six markets covered in this analysis were responsible for an estimated 47%of glo

220、bal energy sector emissions in 2023.Based on their NDCs as of April 2024,we find:Japan and South Korea,which were responsible for 5%of global energy sector emissions in 2023,have NDCs that are more ambitious than BNEFs Economic Transition Scenario,but not enough to be aligned with the Net Zero Scena

221、rio.This suggests that achieving their NDC targets would deliver more emissions abatement than our economics-driven base case.However,they would need to ratchet up their 2030 goals to be consistent with global net zero by mid-century.India,representing 8%of global energy sector emissions in 2023,has

222、 an NDC in line with the ETS,meaning it is aligned with a pathway that optimizes the use of economically competitive technologies.As a developing economy,Indias trajectory is,at least apparently,cost-efficient.But given that the ETS is consistent with a 2.6C warming outcome,Indias NDC target falls s

223、ignificantly short of the Paris-aligned goal of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2C.China,Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for an aggregate 35%of global energy sector emissions in 2023 and each have an NDC that is less ambitious than the ETS(Table 4).This implies that if these m

224、arkets realize their NDCs,a substantial share of global energy emissions would be above and in the case of China,well above even the pathway that optimizes the use of current technologies.They would therefore need to significantly ratchet up their NDC targets to get on track for a net-zero trajector

225、y.What is more,these NDCs even fall short of an economically efficient energy transition pathway.Raising their ambition could thus reduce energy system costs compared with their current plans.2 The UNs synthesis report published in November 2023 found that if parties deliver on their 2030 targets,gl

226、obal emissions would decrease by 5.3%over 2019-2030.This is far short of the 25%reduction needed to limit global warming to 2C and the 43%cut required for a 1.5C pathway.For more,see UN Climate Talks:Was the 28th Time the Charm?Not So Much(web|terminal).Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook Octobe

227、r 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact

228、.Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.23 More transparency on commitments Performing an accurate like-for-like comparison of parties goals is challenging,mainly due to the diverse types of emissions targets,sectors and greenhouse gas coverage,base years,unique national circ

229、umstances,and equity-and development-related considerations.But transparency of NDCs and emissions reporting is important,as it builds trust among parties and credibility for the annual COP climate meetings and outcomes.This year will see governments issue their first biennial reports based on the n

230、ew rules to improve consistency and transparency,though some variability will remain as developing economies were granted flexibility provisions.Table 4:Change in selected Asia Pacific markets energy-sector emissions under their Nationally Determined Contributions and BNEFs Economic Transition Scena

231、rio and Net Zero Scenario 2030 versus base year Energy-sector emissions change,2030 versus base year Market Target Description Base year NDC ETS NZS NDC ambition Japan Absolute emissions reduction Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 46%in fiscal year 2030 from fiscal year 2013 levels 2013-46%-30%-55%

232、More ambitious than ETS South Korea Absolute emissions reduction Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40%by 2030 from 2018 levels(727.6 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)by 2030 2018-40%-18%-50%More ambitious than ETS India Emissions intensity Reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45%by 2030 fr

233、om 2005 levels 2005 175%192%106%In line with ETS Vietnam Baseline scenario Unconditional target of 15.8%emission reduction relative to business-as-usual(BAU)scenario;conditional target of 43.5%relative to BAU 2020*83%60%2%Less ambitious than ETS Indonesia Baseline scenario Unconditional target of 31

234、.89%emission reduction relative to BAU,conditional target of 43.2%emission reduction relative to BAU 2020*74%60%4%Less ambitious than ETS China Emissions intensity Lower its carbon intensity by over 65%in 2030 from 2005 levels 2005 179%51%6%Less ambitious than ETS Source:BloombergNEF,Fourth Biennial

235、 Update Report of the Republic of Korea,greenhouse gas data from World Resources Institute CAIT,Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,GDP data from International Monetary Fund.Note:ETS is Economic Transition Scenario;NZS is Net Zero Scena

236、rio.Applies parties economy-wide,unconditional,greenhouse gas targets for 2030,apart from China,which only has a CO2-related target.Where target is a range or is for a reduction of“at least x%”,the least ambitious figure is used.France and Germany use the EU-level target of“at least 55%”,as the bloc

237、 submits one climate plan.NDC ambition assessments take into account the absolute difference in emissions,crossover points and overall trajectory.Does not distinguish between Annex I and non-Annex I countries,as defined by the UN.*For Indonesia and Vietnam,this NDC value is based on the governments

238、estimated baseline scenario for 2030 emissions.We then calculated the implied change in emissions between 2020(the latest year for which we have data)and 2030.A key next step would be for parties to use a consistent structure for their emissions targets.In that respect,an absolute,economy-wide green

239、house gas target delivers the most certainty in terms of projected outcome.This may be a tough ask.Rapidly growing developing economies such as India and Indonesia show little sign of moving away from intensity-based targets that allow them to grow their economies but meet their climate goals.There

240、are early indications that China may shift away from an intensity-based target for its 2035 NDC.As the charts in Figure 14 Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,pu

241、blicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.24 illustrate,this suggests that even if such markets deliver on th

242、eir 2030 targets,they could increase emissions beyond an economics-driven pathway and far beyond a trajectory consistent with the Paris Agreement.Figure 14:Selected Asia Pacific markets energy sector emissions targets in Nationally Determined Contributions compared to Economic Transition Scenario an

243、d Net Zero Scenario,2000-2030 Japan South Korea India Vietnam Indonesia China Source:BloombergNEF,greenhouse gas data from World Resources Institute CAIT,Nationally Determined Contributions from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,GDP data from International Monetary Fund,Korea emi

244、ssions data from Fourth Biennial Update Report of the Republic of Korea.Note:ETS is Economic Transition Scenario;NZS is Net Zero Scenario.Applies parties economy-wide,unconditional,greenhouse gas targets for 2030,apart from China,which only has a CO2-related target.Where a target is a range,the leas

245、t ambitious figure is used.France and Germany use the EU-level target;both markets have an NDC of“at least 55%”.Does not distinguish between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 countries,as defined by the UN.Legend:More ambitious than ETS;in line with ETS;less ambitious than ETS.-46%-30%-55%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%

246、-10%0%10%2000201020202030Relative to reference year-40%-18%-50%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%2000201020202030Relative to reference year175%192%106%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2000201020202030Relative to reference year83%60%2%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2000201020202030Relative to reference year7

247、4%60%4%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2000201020202030Relative to reference year179%51%6%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%2000201020202030Relative to reference year Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into a

248、n electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.25 Section 3.Technology drivers A

249、chieving net zero in Asia Pacifics energy systems will require a portfolio of technologies of varying maturity that jointly deliver the deep decarbonization required.BNEFs modeling identified nine technology pillars that will make or break the regions transition from a high-to low-carbon energy syst

250、em.Figure 15:Selected technology drivers in BNEFs Asia Pacific scenario modeling Passenger electric vehicle fleet Wind and solar capacity Battery storage capacity Nuclear capacity Carbon dioxide sequestered with CCS Hydrogen demand Sustainable aviation fuel demand Power grid length Heat pumps instal

251、led Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ETS is Economic Transition Scenario.NZS is Net Zero Scenario.Wind includes offshore and onshore.Solar includes small-scale and utility-scale solar photovoltaic.Battery storage includes stationary storage.CCS is carbon capture and storage and the Economic Transition Scena

252、rio shows the current project pipeline.02004006008002020203020402050Million vehiclesNZSETS051015202020203020402050Terawatts0.00.51.01.52.02.52020203020402050Terawatts02004006008002020203020402050Gigawatts02462020203020402050ThousandsBillion metric tons of CO2/year0501001502002502020203020402050Milli

253、on metric tons of hydrogen0102030402020203020402050Billion gallons02040602020203020402050Million kilometers0501001502002502020203020402050Million units Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an ele

254、ctronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.26 By 2050,in the NZS for Asia Pacific

255、:1.The EV fleet grows to 671 million vehicles and while the region does not see a complete phase-out of internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles before 2050,new ICE vehicle sales fall 97%by 2040 against 2023.Between 2041 and 2050,new ICE vehicles sales stagnate at an average of 2.3 million vehicles p

256、er year.2.Total wind and solar capacity reaches 17.5 terawatts(TW)this represents 57%of global capacity in 2050.Total renewable energy capacity almost quadruples from today by 2030,and then triples again from 2030 to 2050.3.Installed battery storage capacity hits 2.2TW by 2050 more than 60 times of

257、2023 levels,representing 56%of global capacity.4.Nuclear power capacity grows almost sixfold to 620 gigawatts(GW).5.Carbon capture capacity grows to 5.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide(GtCO2)sequestered per year from nearly zero today.6.Clean hydrogen use reaches 211 million tons per year by 2

258、050 five times todays fossil-fuel-based hydrogen demand and 54%of global demand in that year.7.Sustainable aviation fuel consumption hits 34 billion gallons per year up from minimal levels today.By 2050,Asia Pacific represents 38%of global SAF demand.8.Asia Pacifics power grid grows to 53 million ki

259、lometers in length almost double from today to account for nearly half of the worlds power grid in length.9.Heat pumps reach over 200 million installed units cumulatively a near 10-fold increase from today.Among the nine pillars,only four are mature,commercially scalable technologies with proven bus

260、iness models:electric vehicles,renewable power,energy storage,and power grids.These still require a significant acceleration to get on track for net zero,but there is little to no technology risk and economic premiums are generally small or non-existent.However,these technologies may still face diff

261、erent levels of regulatory risks in each market.As seen in Figure 15,each of these technologies sees strong growth in the ETS,demonstrating their maturity and economic competitiveness.By contrast,nuclear,carbon capture and storage(CCS),hydrogen,SAFs,and heat pumps are not currently cost-competitive

262、or face challenges scaling up commercially.As a result,their deployment stagnates under the ETS.But each of these technologies must scale rapidly to achieve the trajectories laid out in the NZS,and each plays a different role in the transition.Achieving commercialization of these technologies within

263、 the next decade will be imperative.The following sections explore the trajectory of each technology in greater depth.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicl

264、y displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.27 Table 5:Technology scale-up required under Economic Transition Scenar

265、io and Net Zero Scenario in Asia Pacific Technology(units)Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Key challenge to keeping on track for net zero 2023 2050 Multiplier versus 2023 2050 Multiplier versus 2023 Solar (gigawatts)987 6,781 x6.9 11,676 x11.8 Rapid scaling Wind(GW)536 2,970 x5.5 5,847

266、 x10.9 Rapid scaling Battery storage capacity(GW)36 1,761 x48.5 2,227 x61.3 Rapid scaling Passenger electric vehicle fleet(million vehicles)23 515 x22.2 671 x28.9 Rapid scaling Power grid (thousand kilometers)30,509 44,036 x1.4 53,101 x1.7 Socio-political acceptance Nuclear capacity (GW)107 240 x2.2

267、 620 x5.8 Socio-political acceptance and technology commercialization Carbon dioxide emissions captured by carbon capture and storage (million metric tons of CO2 per year)-5,367 Technology commercialization Hydrogen demand (million tons of hydrogen(140 megajoules per kilogram)40 73 x1.8 211 x5.3 Tec

268、hnology commercialization Sustainable aviation fuels demand (million gallons)28 1,844 x66.7 33,775 x1,221.9 Technology commercialization Heat pumps(million units)21 67 x3.2 214.32 x10.3 Rapid scaling Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Hydrogen demand today is largely served by fossil fuel-derived hydrogen,so

269、the multiplier for low-carbon hydrogen is many orders of magnitude larger.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivati

270、ve works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.28 3.1.Fossil fuel-based power generation Rapidly growing economies and industrial activities in many of the Asia Pa

271、cific markets drives significant growth in electricity demand under both the ETS and NZS.Total generation in the region increases 31%from 15,152 terawatt-hours(TWh)in 2023 to 27,135TWh by 2050 under the ETS.By comparison,total generation increases by 86%to 45,619TWh by 2050 under the NZS.Achieving n

272、et zero by 2050 means the NZS is not merely an evolution of the ETS it will have to function and operate as a completely different power system,as shown by Figure 16.The increasing cost-competitiveness of clean power,and the ever-rising decarbonization ambitions of nations,are fundamentally changing

273、 how power systems are developing,transforming them from being fossil fuel-centric to dominated by renewables.In particular,solar and wind supply the bulk of electricity across the Asia Pacific.For a net zero-aligned pathway,Asia Pacific must also see the phase-out of unabated fossil fuel use.This i

274、s a significant challenge given the dominance of coal and gas in the power sector today.Figure 16:Electricity generation by technology/fuel in Asia Pacific,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Refer to Appendix A f

275、or the full list of geographies included in the chart.CCS is carbon capture and storage.CCGT is combined-cycle gas turbine.PV is solar photovoltaic.Today,fossil fuels collectively supply two-thirds of the regions power demand,of which unabated coal dominates with 54%of total generation.By 2050,under

276、 the ETS,coals share of the regions generation mix falls to 14%.However,in some markets with relatively young coal fleets,such as Indonesia,its share remains as high as 32%by mid-century.Under the NZS,unabated coals share of generation in the region falls precipitously to 12%by 2030 before being lar

277、gely phased 202305,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000200020102020203020402050Terawatt-hours202305,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000200020102020203020402050Terawatt-hoursCoalCoal with CCSCCGTCCGT with CCSGas peakerGas peaker with CCSOilHydrogenNuclearSma

278、ll modular nuclearBioenergyHydroGeothermalUtility-scale PVSmall-scale PVOnshore windOffshore windOther Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or

279、used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.29 out by 2040 in all Asia Pacific markets.In both scenarios,the regions unabated coal

280、fleet will struggle to compete economically against new solar and wind generators but needs to see a faster phase-out in the NZS than in the ETS to stay on track for net zero.Gas will progressively play a larger role,supplying high value,low volume electricity to the regions power systems in times o

281、f need.By 2050,unabated gas accounts for just 5%of generation in Asia Pacific under the ETS,and is completely phased out under the NZS,from 12%in 2023.CCS allows coal and gas to retain a role,albeit a small one,in the regions power system.Under the NZS,coal and gas paired with CCS account for 5%and

282、3%of the regions generation in 2050,respectively.Unabated coal phase-out can be costly for many Asia Pacific markets Phasing down and eliminating the use of coal can be a financially costly and politically sensitive task for many of the Asia Pacific countries with deeply entrenched coal industries b

283、eyond the power sector.Many countries in the region have acknowledged the need to and expressed their commitment to transition away from unbated coal.Bringing these plans into action and accelerating the momentum to be in line with a net-zero pathway will require increased government will and potent

284、ially international financial support.Many Asia Pacific markets such as India and Vietnam face the uphill task of ensuring a secure,affordable,and stable power supply to drive economic growth and industrialization while balancing long-term climate targets.Historically,coal has been the technology of

285、 choice for expanding power market across the region thanks to the abundance of coal resources in China,India,Indonesia,and Australia.In response,power grids were built around large,centralized generators.A power grid dominated by decentralized intermittent generators,such as solar and wind,needs to

286、 be operated very differently,prompting hesitancy and reliability concerns from power system operators and regulators who are less experienced with it.Figure 17:Coal generation capacity addition in Asia Pacific by market and time period Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Time period lengths differ.Refer to Ap

287、pendix A for the full list of geographies included in the chart.Figures above bars are annual average coal-fired capacity additions.0.6TW per year1.3TW per year1.6TW per year0510152000-092010-192020-23TerawattsVietnamOther Southeast AsiaIndonesiaAustraliaSouth KoreaJapanOther Asia PacificIndiaChina

288、Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For mo

289、re information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.30 The region is also host to a relatively young coal fleet,which will be costly to retire early.Rapid economic growth over the last two decades drove a significant increase in Asia Pacifics

290、 coal capacity.Half of the regions coal generation assets that were added from 2000 to 2023 occurred in the 2010s alone.Between 2020 and 2023,the region added an average of 1.6TW of coal generation capacity per year,compared to the average of 0.6TW per year in the 2000s and 1.3TW per year in the 201

291、0s(Figure 17).Countries have taken steps toward phasing out coal,but progress is slow Governments and coal asset owners in a few Asia Pacific markets Indonesia,Vietnam and the Philippines have initiated discussions with both private financial institutions and multilaterals like the Asian Development

292、 Bank,and initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)to potentially accelerate the phase-out of coal power plants.However,apart from a successful case by ACEN in the Philippines,little progress has been made.Governments have run up against the harsh realities of JETP negotiation

293、s and challenges in reaching agreement on terms that all parties would find palatable No funding has been released so far under the JETP deals secured in 2022 by both Indonesia and Vietnam.What about ammonia co-firing in coal plants or blending of hydrogen with natural gas?Many Asian markets are eye

294、ing ammonia co-firing and blending of green hydrogen with natural gas to abate coal-and gas-fired power plant emissions,respectively.Fuels like hydrogen and ammonia do not release carbon dioxide during combustion given the absence of carbon in their molecular chemistry.These markets also hope to pre

295、vent existing assets from becoming stranded.Governments in Japan and South Korea,along with companies in each country,are rushing to scale the technology on a commercial basis across the region,leading to a frenzy of announcements and activity around these fuels.BloombergNEF analysis finds that coal

296、 ammonia co-firing and blending of green hydrogen with natural gas are not cost-effective emission reduction approaches as they entail higher safety and financial risks.Co-firing of ammonia and blending of green hydrogen with natural gas have limited emissions reduction benefits at low ratios.To ach

297、ieve tangible emission reduction,an existing coal power plant would have to be retrofitted to be capable of co-firing ammonia with coal at energy ratios above 50%.Currently,only co-firing 20%ammonia with coal(on an energy content basis)has been tested in pilot projects.Higher co-firing ratios requir

298、e significantly more investment in retrofitting the thermal power plant.They also raise fuel procurement costs for countries dependent on hydrogen and ammonia imports and may jeopardize a countrys energy security.Seaborne transportation and onsite storage of ammonia is also more costly and entail hi

299、gher safety risks than coal and LNG.Combustion of ammonia creates nitrogen oxides(NOx)a major pollutant as well as nitrous oxide(N2O)emissions a greenhouse gas more powerful than CO2.BNEFs Net Zero Scenario sees a role for 100%ammonia or hydrogen compatible peaker gas turbines as critical back-up in

300、 fully decarbonized power systems.However,the annual utilization rate of such peaker plants is still relatively low in this scenario due to their higher fuel costs.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned

301、 into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.31 3.2.Variable renewables

302、 Solar and wind are the main drivers of decarbonization in Asia Pacific and are set for a massive scale-up across the region under both the ETS and NZS,driven by declining costs,generous incentive schemes,and improving routes-to-markets for projects(through programs like auctions).Together,wind and

303、solar accounted for 75%of Asia Pacifics generation capacity additions in 2023.However,the level of development varies significantly across the region.China is a global leader in solar and wind deployment driven by government ambition,incentive support,and economies of scale from its the large domest

304、ic clean energy manufacturing sector.Today,China accounts for 69%of installed solar capacity and 85%of installed wind capacity in Asia Pacific.Some 87%of solar and wind capacity additions in 2023 took place in China.On the other end of the scale,Indonesia only has 0.7GW of combined solar and wind ca

305、pacity,which represents a mere 0.05%of the countrys coal-dominated power system as of 2023.Regardless of each countrys starting point,solar and wind installations see a large jump under both of BNEFs modeled scenarios.In the ETS,wind and solar combined make up 41%of power generation in the region by

306、 2030 and 64%by 2050.Under the NZS,the two renewable energy sources collectively contribute 46%of the power mix by 2030 and 73%by 2050.The NZS sees accelerated deployment of solar and wind compared to the ETS to lower power sector emissions for a much larger electricity system in line with the carbo

307、n budget compliant with the goals of the Paris Agreement.Table 6:Installed solar and wind capacity in Asia Pacific by market and scenario 2023 versus 2050 Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Gigawatts 2023 2050 Multiplier versus 2023 2050 Multiplier versus 2023 Australia 45 166 x3.7 290 x

308、6.5 China 1,137 5,925 x5.2 8,408 x7.4 India 139 1,616 x11.6 4,328 x31.1 Indonesia 1 346 x495.5 891 x1,275.1 Japan 96 275 x2.9 580 x6 South Korea 29 94 x3.2 304 x10.4 Vietnam 26 331 x12.8 682 x26.4 Other Asia Pacific 39 612 x15.9 1,146 x29.7 Other Southeast Asia 12 385 x32.8 895 x76.3 Asia Pacific 1,

309、523 9,751 x6.4 17,523 x11.5 Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Other Southeast Asia includes Malaysia,Thailand and the Philippines.Refer to Appendix A for the full list of geographies included under Other Asia Pacific.Solar Solar,utility-and small-scale collectively,sees massive expansion in Asia Pacific unde

310、r both the ETS and NZS to become the second-largest source of power supply by mid-century.Increasing to 31%and 33%of generation,respectively,up from a mere 6%in 2023.Solar already leads installations in Asia Pacific,accounting for 60%of capacity additions in 2023.Figure 18:Asia Pacific installed sol

311、ar capacity in BNEFs scenario modeling Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Includes small-and utility-scale solar photovoltaic.024681012142020203020402050ThousandsTerawatts Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned i

312、nto an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.32 Figure 19:Annual average

313、solar capacity addition in Asia Pacific by time period,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF.Note:PV is solar photovoltaic.Solar technology and supply chains are mature and well established,allowing for the rapid scaling up.To stay on track for net zero,the region ne

314、eds to ramp up deployment immediately,with efforts concentrated in this decade.Between 2024 and 2030,Asia Pacific needs to add an annual average of 342GW of solar capacity under the ETS and 510GW per year under the NZS.This translates to a 23%increase under the ETS and 84%jump under the NZS against

315、actual solar capacity installed in 2023.Figure 20:Installed solar capacity in selected Asia Pacific markets,Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario Economic Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF Chinas uptake of solar grows rapidly until the mid-2030s in both scenarios

316、,before tailing off.Installed capacity increases from 680GW in 2023 to just under 4TW by 2050 in our base-case ETS.To reach net zero,Chinas uptake of solar grows a further 29%over the ETS by 2050 to an astonishing 5.1TW.Small-scale solar systems make up 60%of the solar capacity installed 278 342 223

317、 151 010020030040050060020232024-20302031-20402041-2050Gigawatts per yearSmall-scale PVUtility-scale PVEconomic Transition Scenario278510412334010020030040050060020232024-20302031-20402041-2050Gigawatts per yearSmall-scale PVUtility-scale PVNet Zero Scenario0246810122020202520302035204020452050Teraw

318、atts0246810122020202520302035204020452050Terawatts-2,5002,5002222222222222222ChinaIndiaJapanSouth KoreaIndonesiaVietnam Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publi

319、cly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.33 in the ETS.In the NZS,utility-scale projects make up the majority,w

320、ith just over half of the total installed capacity by 2050.Solar constitutes around 30%of Chinas generation in both the ETS and NZS,up from less than 6%in 2023.Indias uptake of solar accelerates over every decade in both scenarios,increasing from a base of 94GW in 2023 to 1.1TW in 2050 under the ETS

321、.The NZS sees a near-tripling of the installed capacity under the ETS,rising to nearly 3.2TW by mid-century.Utility-scale installations dominate solar build in both scenarios by 2050,making up 66%of capacity in the ETS and 88%in the NZS.Solar accounts for 33%of supply in the ETS and 46%in the NZS by

322、 2050,up from 8%in 2023.Indonesias installed solar capacity grows from a low base of just 0.5GW in 2023 to 333GW by 2050 in the ETS.To reach net zero,uptake must more than double the level in our base case to 758GW by 2050.Like India,the rate of uptake accelerates every decade and utility-scale inst

323、allations make up most of the capacity in both scenarios,with 78%in the ETS and 91%in the NZS by 2050.Solar is responsible for 38%of Indonesias supply in the ETS mid-century.In the NZS,it accounts for nearly half of the countrys generation.Solar capacity in Vietnam accelerates during the 2030s and 2

324、040s,growing from 21GW in 2023 to 274GW by 2050 in the ETS,and 512GW in the NZS.The country already has a larger base of solar capacity than many of its peers in Southeast Asia due to a generous feed-in tariff program it ran a few years ago to encourage uptake.Utility-scale projects make up 66%of in

325、stalled solar capacity in the ETS and 82%in the NZS,by 2050.Solar accounts for around 40%of Vietnams total output by 2050 in both scenarios,up from 8%in 2023.Japans installed solar capacity growth accelerates during the 2030s but slows down significantly after 2040.Uptake rises from 90GW in 2023 to

326、194GW by 2050 in the ETS and 366GW in the NZS.In the ETS,small-scale systems account for 60%of the buildout,as land constraints and technology costs hinder the implementation of utility-scale solar photovoltaic(PV).In the NZS,these large-scale projects make up 68%of total solar capacity by 2050.Sola

327、r is responsible for 21%of Japans electricity generation by 2050 in the ETS and 24%in the NZS,up from 9%in 2023.South Korea sees its installed solar capacity grow from 27GW in 2023 to 77GW by mid-century in the base case.Uptake in the NZS more than doubles that in the ETS to 194GW by 2050.Utility-sc

328、ale solar projects make up most of the capacity in both scenarios to 2050 59%in the ETS and 84%in the NZS.Overall,solar accounts for 15%of South Koreas generation in the ETS by 2050.This rises to 26%under the NZS up from 5%in 2023.Wind Wind development in most Asia Pacific markets,except for China a

329、nd India,pales in comparison to solar due to relatively poorer wind resources,especially for onshore projects.Developing a wind project is also more complex than solar and requires a longer development time frame,and therefore needs more time to build up domestic capabilities.However,wind generation

330、 is helped by the technologys higher capacity factors and more stable generation profile compared to solar.Although solar capacity additions between 2024 and 2050 outstrip wind,the latter grows to become Asia Pacifics single-largest source of power.By 2050,wind supplies 34%(9,126TWh)of the regions e

331、lectricity demand under the ETS and 40%(18,329TWh)under the NZS,from 7%(1,018TWh)in 2023.Asia Pacifics Energy Transition Outlook October 16,2024 Bloomberg Finance L.P.2024 No portion of this document may be reproduced,scanned into an electronic system,distributed,publicly displayed or used as the ba

332、sis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.For more information on terms of use,please contact .Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 117 applies throughout.34 Figure 21:Annual average wind capacity addition in Asia Pacific by time period,Economic Transition

333、 Scenario and Net Zero Scenario Source:BloombergNEF While solar additions take center stage between 2024 and 2030,the momentum for wind development in Asia Pacific also needs to pick up over the remainder of this decade and peak in the 2030s.Under the ETS,the region sees an average of 104GW of wind capacity added each year to the end of the decade,an almost 50%increase against the 71GW installed i