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1、Navigating uncertain skiesCommercial Aerospace Insight Report 2Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportAuthors John SchmidtAerospace and Defense Global Industry Lead Patrice BarbierAerospace and Defense Europe Industry LContributorsAbhigyan ChandAbhishek KumarJeffrey WhelessKamil MazurekMatthieu DupontNa

2、vdeep SabooSmriti KumarTony JoseAccentures latest commercial aerospace analysis finds the industry is on track for recovery despite uncertainty.Rising deliveries and a growing aftermarket are helping balance recent disruptions as supply chains begin to stabilize.4Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportC

3、ontents06Findings in brief09Global outlook23Regional outlook21Whats keeping aerospace leaders up at night?05Executive summary5Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportDespite recent geopolitical disruptions,the outlook for commercial aerospace recovery remains intact.Resilient fundamentalssuch as long-ter

4、m order backlogs and aftermarket momentumcontinue to signal a gradual return to growth,while early signs of supply chain easing are beginning to emerge.Projections for 2025 reflect measured optimism.Global aerospace company revenues are expected to grow 12%year-on-year(YoY).Original equipment manufa

5、cturers(OEMs)are likely to drive much of this growth,with deliveries forecasted to rise 23%.However,the ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic and trade environment,labor constraints and quality issues could still disrupt progress.The maintenance,repair and overhaul(MRO)sector continues to grow as

6、 airlines extend fleet lifespans amid OEM production delays.MRO spending is expected to rise 14%in 2025,though capacity constraints and labor shortages are straining operations.1 Leading MRO players are investing in predictive maintenance,workflow automation and supplier partnerships to ease these p

7、ressures.Regionally,Asia-Pacific is expected to lead with 14%revenue growth,driven by rising air travel demand and MRO investments in countries such as India,South Korea and Australia.North America could see up to 10%growth,supported by Boeings production recovery.Europe is likely to extend its post

8、-pandemic recovery with 7%growth.Supply chain sentiment is showing signs of improvement85%of executives are now confident in deliveries,up from 77%in August 2024but operational uncertainties persist.Boeings 737 MAX 2025 production targets were already challengingand the recent China delivery pause h

9、as added a fresh layer of geopolitical complexity.Recovery momentum no longer depends solely on resolving internal execution issues.Rival Airbus,meanwhile,has pushed back its A320 ramp-up to 2027 due to supplier bottlenecks.While challenges remain,some companies are pulling ahead.Embraer has strengt

10、hened supplier ties and optimized production using AI-driven tools,while Safran is ramping up LEAP engine deliveries through localized de-risking strategies.Air France-KLMs AI partnership with Google Cloud has slashed predictive maintenance data analysis time from hours to minutes,enhancing utilizat

11、ion and operational efficiency.Amid macroeconomic uncertainty,executives are cautiously optimistic:61%expect revenue growth in six months and 76%within a year.However,building on that early confidence will require targeted action.Managing volatility and turning adversity into opportunity will demand

12、 focused executionresilient supply chains,better cost control,AI-driven efficiencies and strategic planning.5 5Note:We recognize the recent macroeconomic environment has created elevated uncertainty since the time of our executive survey.Executive summary6Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportFindings

13、in brief7Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportGlobal aerospace market on the road to recovery The commercial aerospace market is showing signs of recovery in 2025,with global aerospace company revenues projected to grow 12%YoY.Sustained demand for new and replacement aircraft is expected to be a key d

14、river of this growth,alongside rising MRO activity as commercial flight operations expand.Industry sentiment is cautiously optimistic:61%of executives expect revenue growth over the next six months and 76%see an increase over the next year.However,sustaining this momentum will test the industrys abi

15、lity to navigate a more volatile global contextbroader trade-related uncertainty,labor shortages,persistent supply chain bottlenecks and quality control challenges.Despite these risks,aircraft deliveries are expected to rise 23%the highest annual increase since 2021.Eighty-three percent of executive

16、s anticipate narrow-body deliveries to match or exceed first half of 2024(1H24)levels,while 88%expect the same for wide-body aircraft.This signals growing confidence in supply chain stabilization and in OEMs ability to scale production despite lingering constraints.Labor,supply chain constraints tes

17、t aftermarket growthThe aftermarket sector continues to grow,with 49%of MRO executives expecting higher spending in the next six months(up from 42%in the previous survey),as airlines extend fleet lifespans.However,capacity constraints and long maintenance turnaround timesworsened by labor shortagesa

18、re straining operations.Supply chain pressures persist,with 85%of executives struggling to meet aftermarket demand.To enhance resilience,OEMs and MROs are deepening supplier collaboration through long-term agreements and integrated platforms.Streamlining operationsfrom cost control and workforce tra

19、ining to parts availabilityremains a top priority.Digital transformation is picking up the pace,with predictive maintenance,cloud-based platforms and automation emerging as key investment areas.For example,Rolls-Royce is leveraging AI-powered digital twins through its partnership with Aerogility,all

20、owing it to model environmental impact,optimize energy use and enhance operational efficiency at its MRO facilities.Going ahead,AI-driven efficiencies,streamlined workflows and robust supplier networks will be essential to both sustaining operational readiness and capitalizing on strong demand.2 AI

21、gains ground in airlines efficiency driveGlobal air travel demand is expected to continue rising,with passenger numbers projected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025a 4.4%YoY increase.Industry revenues are climbing,and airline net profits are projected to hit$36.6 billion.However,this growth wont come easy

22、 amid macroeconomic and trade-related risks,alongside challenges like MRO supply disruptions,aircraft shortages and constrained profitability.The industrys return on invested capital(ROIC)is projected at just 6.8%,below its weighted average cost of capitalunderscoring the need for operational effici

23、ency gains.3AI-driven improvements are emerging as a key strategy to counter these pressures.For example,Alaska Airlines has deployed the Flyways AI platform to optimize flight routes,saving 1.2 million gallons of fuel and slashing carbon dioxide emissions by about 12,000 metric tons.4 As AI continu

24、es to reshape airline operations,broader industry adoption will be essential for efficiency gains,on-time performance and enhanced travel experiences.58Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportSupply chain struggles persist,but confidence is improvingThe industry is still grappling with supply constraints

25、,particularly in engine and aerostructure deliveries,with quality issues compounding delays.These challenges continue to limit production stability for both OEMs and suppliers.Despite ongoing pressures,industry leaders see signs of progress.“Theyre not exactly where wed want them to be,but theyre ma

26、king good progress to get there,”Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said,referring to 787 production ramp-up efforts.6 Safran plans to increase LEAP engine deliveries by 15-20%in 2025 through localized de-risking initiatives while Embraer and smaller French suppliers are leveraging digital solutions to stream

27、line supply chain management.7Confidence in supplier reliability is showing signs of improvement.Eighty-five percent of executives now trust their supply chains to deliver on time and at quality standards over the next six monthsup from 77%in August.8Geopolitical risks top executive concernsExecutiv

28、es remain cautious about macroeconomic and geopolitical risks,with political instabilityfueled by renewed US trade protectionismnow adding a fresh layer of volatility to an already uncertain outlook.The US announced sweeping tariffs,then paused them for most countries shortly before they were set to

29、 take effectreinforcing concerns about trade policy unpredictability and the risk of future escalation.Although recession fears had eased in late 2024,concerns about slowing growth in major markets are resurfacing.Meanwhile,some macro indicatorssuch as exchange rates and interest rateshave stabilize

30、d,providing short-term relief.However,supply chain disruptions continue to drive up production costs,particularly energy and labor expenses,squeezing profitability.As the industry navigates these uncertainties,strategic planning,supply chain resilience and cost efficiency remain top imperativesespec

31、ially with recession risk re-entering the conversation in an already fragile global economy.89Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportGlobal outlook10Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportAfter a challenging 2024,the global commercial aerospace market is expected to see a double-digit recovery in 2025,suppo

32、rted by increasing aircraft deliveries and rising aftermarket demand.Global aerospace company revenues are projected to grow 12%YoY in 2025(Figure 1),fueled by sustained demand for new and replacement aircraft from airlines and lessors,as well as increased MRO activity.OEMs are expected to drive thi

33、s recovery,with aircraft deliveries expected to grow 23%the highest annual increase since 2021as production ramps up.9 Boeing and Airbus are beginning to regain momentum after a difficult 2024,when Airbuss commercial revenue grew just 6%YoY while Boeings plunged 33%YoY.10 Those trajectories are expe

34、cted to shift in 2025,with Boeing likely posting high double-digit growth and Airbus seeing a more measured improvement.However,the environment remains fluid.Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions suggest the recovery may not follow a straight line.Navigating this volatility,while addre

35、ssing supply chain strain and quality challenges,will be critical to sustaining momentum.Meanwhile,the continued expansion of commercial flight operations is driving MRO demand,further pressuring already strained supply chains.To meet rising demand for both new aircraft and aftermarket services,supp

36、liers must scale up deliveries rapidly an effort that remains constrained by ongoing disruptions.Figure 1:Global commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4201820212024201920222025202020232026ForecastActual160140120100806040200Q1 Q2 Q3 Q41

37、1Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportDelivering new aircraftAircraft deliveries fell in 2024 due to supply chain disruptions and production setbacks.Amid pent-up demand and trade policy uncertainty,the focus is now shifting to supply chain resilience.Figure 2:Narrow-body aircraft delivery outlook (un

38、it deliveries shipped to customers)1H25 vs 1H24 2025 vs 2024DecreaseMaintainIncreaseFigure 3:Wide-body aircraft delivery outlook (unit deliveries shipped to customers)1H25 vs 1H24 2025 vs 2024DecreaseMaintainIncreaseOEMs navigated a turbulent 2024.Production slowdowns at Boeing resulted in a 34%YoY

39、decline in deliveries,while Airbus managed a modest 4%increase despite supply chain pressures.Together,the two companies delivered 1,114 aircraft.11 In contrast,Embraer saw a 14%YoY increase in commercial aircraft deliveries.12 Looking ahead,Airbus and Boeing are expected to deliver 1,367 aircraft i

40、n 2025,a 23%increase,driven mainly by Boeings ramp-up after a challenging year(Figure 10).13Suppliers are adapting to Airbus and Boeings production plans.Airbus has delayed its A320 family ramp-up to 75 aircraft per month from 2026 to 2027,giving suppliers more time to meet production targets.14 Spi

41、rit AeroSystems,which delivered 27 fuselages for the 737 in Q2 2024,increased production to 31 per month in early 2025,with higher-quality inventory ready for shipment.15With supply chain adjustments and production ramp-ups underway,98%of suppliers expect similar or higher product deliveries in 2025

42、.Executives share this optimism,with 90%of them foreseeing similar or higher deliveries in the first half of the year and a stronger rebound later in the year(Figure 4).Rolls-Royce,Collins Aerospace and Pratt&Whitney are expanding sourcing in emerging markets like India to enhance regional stability

43、 and reduce reliance on existing hubs.16 GE Aerospace expects demand for new engines to outpace aftermarket services in 2025,reflecting expectations of fleet expansion.17Figure 4:Commercial aerospace products delivery outlook 1H25 vs 1H24 2025 vs 2024DecreaseMaintainIncreaseConfidence in aircraft de

44、liveries is improving:83%of executives expect narrow-body and 88%expect wide-body deliveries in first half of 2025(1H25)to match or exceed 1H24 levels.Optimism is higher for the full year,with 92%projecting growth in narrow-body and 93%in wide-body deliveries(Figures 2 and 3).12Commercial Aerospace

45、Insight ReportSupporting in-service fleetsLeading MRO providers are scaling capacity,upskilling workers and adopting digital tools to meet rising demand while navigating labor and supply chain constraints.Commercial MRO spending is projected to exceed$126 billion in 2025,up 14%YoY,driven by escalati

46、ng labor,parts and production costs.18 Capacity constraint remains a challenge,with longer maintenance turnaround times for key components forcing airlines to adjust schedules,reallocate parts and lease temporary equipment.Malaysia Airlines CEO,Izham Ismail,highlighted that servicing times have more

47、 than doubled since pre-pandemic levels,intensifying pressure on suppliers and MRO providers.19 Supply chain disruptions persist,with 85%of executives reporting difficulties in meeting aftermarket demand and 54%expecting these issues to last more than six months.Strengthening supplier partnerships,b

48、oosting workflow efficiencies and accelerating digital adoption will be critical to maintaining operational readiness and controlling rising costsespecially as macroeconomic and trade-related uncertainty adds another layer of complexity.Figure 5:MRO activity outlookNext 6 months Next 12 months Next

49、24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncrease12MRO executives remain cautiously optimistic,with 49%expecting higher spending in the next six monthsup from 42%in the previous surveyand the rest anticipating stability.As airlines extend fleet lifespans,the long-term outlook is steadier:66%of executives expect spe

50、nding to rise within a year,climbing to 68%over two years(Figure 5).13Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportCollaborate for supply chain resilienceBoth OEMs and MRO players are deepening supplier partnerships by focusing on long-term agreements,integrated supply chain platforms and strategic alliances

51、for collaboration(Figure 6).In 2024,Airbus,Boeing,GE Aerospace and Safran launched the Aviation Supply Chain Integrity Coalition to enhance transparency and prevent unapproved parts from entering the supply chain.GE Aerospace and StandardAero are tightening vendor controls in coordination with the F

52、ederal Aviation Administration(FAA)and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency(EASA).20Figure 6:Measures to strengthen the aftermarket supply chain(Top 3 mentions)Establishing long-term supply agreements for critical partsBuilding strategic alliances or joint ventures to share resources and optimi

53、ze supply chain operationsLeveraging advanced analytics to monitor and improve supplier performancePartnering with local suppliers to shorten lead timesIncreasing supplier diversification to mitigate risksConducting joint forecasting and planning sessions with suppliersCreating integrated supply cha

54、in management platforms0%10%20%30%40%50%60%14Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportRethink operations for agility and cost controlCompanies with MRO operations are prioritizing cost control,parts availability,workforce upskilling and end-to-end solutions over the next two years(Figure 7).FTAI Aviation

55、is integrating engine leasing with in-house maintenance,emphasizing module swaps,heavy maintenance and piece parts repairs.21 Airbus and Rolls-Royce are increasing sourcing from India to diversify supply chains and enhance resilience.22 GE Aerospace is leveraging its AI-powered tool,AI Wingmate,to b

56、oost workforce productivity while Turkish Technic is offering Part 147 training and technical programs to address labor shortages.23Figure 7:Top priorities for enhancing operational efficiency(Top 3 mentions,Immediate/2 years)Controlling costs of delivering MRO services to improve efficiencyEnhancin

57、g workforce capacity through training and upskillingLeveraging digital tools and data to improve operational processesSetting up regional MRO centers to minimize reliance on global suppliersStreamlining workflows and optimizing maintenance schedulesIncreasing reliability and reducing turnaround time

58、s for repairsDeveloping end-to-end MRO solutions to enhance integrationInvesting in predictive and prescriptive maintenance technologiesOutsourcing specific MRO tasks to third-party providersImproving parts availability and addressing supply chain disruptions0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%ImmediateN

59、ext 2 years15Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportAccelerate digital adoption to unlock efficiencyCloud-based platforms and generative AI-driven automation are top priorities for executives looking to streamline operations.For example,AI powered-predictive maintenance is an area where adoption is expe

60、cted to surge over the next two years(Figure 8).This is where a strong digital core can be a differentiator:It not only optimizes workflows but also accelerates the adoption of new technologies.Industry leaders are already moving forward.Rolls-Royce,in partnership with Aerogility,is leveraging digit

61、al twins to model environmental impact and drive both sustainability and operational improvements.24 GE Aerospace,Microsoft and Accenture have developed a generative AI assistant,cutting maintenance records retrieval time from hours to minutes.25Figure 8:Digital priorities for MRO optimization(Top 3

62、 mentions,Current/2 years)Cloud-based platforms to integrate and streamline MRO workflowsMachine learning for predictive insights and optimizationRobotics and automation for repair and overhaul processesEdge computing for faster data processing and decision-makingDigital twins for real-time monitori

63、ng and simulationAdvanced analytics to enhance inventory management and parts forecastingPredictive maintenance systems powered by IoT and AICybersecurity frameworks to protect sensitive aircraft dataAR/VR tools for technician training and remote maintenanceGenerative AI for automating workflows and

64、 co-pilot for augmenting decision-making processes0%10%20%30%40%50%60%CurrentNext 2 years16Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportAirline performanceAmid rising passenger demand and ongoing margin pressure,AI is emerging as a key lever for efficiency in an increasingly competitive market.The global airl

65、ine industry is expected to grow in 2025,with total revenue predicted to surpass$1 trillion.This will be driven by a steady 4.4%rise in passenger demand,which will push volumes beyond pre-pandemic levels.26 Cumulative net profits are projected to reach$36.6 billion in 2025,up 16.2%YoY,with European

66、airlines leading the way(Figure 9).27 While revenue and profits are accelerating,the industrys ROIC is projected at just 6.8%in 2025,well below the weighted average cost of capitalemphasizing the need for greater efficiencies.28 AI-driven improvements are emerging as a key competitive edge,enhancing

67、 route optimization,fuel efficiency,predictive maintenance and passenger experience.Case in point:United Airlines Every Flight Has a Story initiative has improved customer satisfaction by 6%,demonstrating AIs impact on service personalization.29Yet,headwinds remain.Supply chain disruptions and aircr

68、aft shortages continue to constrain capacity,while regulatory hurdles complicate AI adoption.Wisk Aero,a Boeing subsidiary,recently cleared a key FAA milestone for its autonomous air taxihighlighting both AIs promise and its complexity in aviation.30To stay competitive,airlines must leverage AI-driv

69、en efficiencies while proactively addressing regulatory and operational challenges.Source:IATA Note:Profit figures are rounded,so the YoY percentage change may not precisely align with the displayed values.Forecasts are based on IATAs December 2024 outlook,prior to the announcement of the April 2025

70、 US tariff package(currently under temporary pause).Macroeconomic and trade-related risks could affect airline demand and margins in 2025.Region2024 profit(E)2025 profit(F)YoY changeNorth America$12B$14B17%Europe$10B$12B19%Middle East$5B$6B11%Asia-Pacific$3B$4B13%Figure 9:Regional airline profits(20

71、24 estimated vs 2025 forecasted)Figure 10:Historical and forecasted deliveries by year(Boeing and Airbus)16001400120010008006004002000201820192020202120222023202420252026Narrow-and wide-body deliveries forecast(20182026)WidebodyNarrowbody17Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportBusiness-cycle statusWhil

72、e challenges remain,signs of stabilization are emerging in commercial aerospace.Strong supplier collaboration,AI-driven efficiencies and financial discipline will be key to sustaining momentum.Airbus sustained steady growth in 2024 despite supply chain headwinds,posting a 6%YoY revenue increase and

73、a 42%rise in commercial aircraft operating profit.Strong deliveries,a favorable product mix and operational efficiencies helped maintain momentum.31Boeing,by contrast,stumbled through a brutal year.Commercial aircraft revenue plummeted 33%and losses ballooned by 387%YoY,weighed down by delivery setb

74、acks,regulatory scrutiny and operational struggles.32 Supply shortages,certification hold-ups and a seven-week machinists strike widened the competitive gap between Boeing and Airbus heading into 2025.While larger OEMs faced turbulence,Embraer proved resilient,posting 21%YoY revenue growth in 2024.3

75、3 Whats behind its success?Supply chain optimization with AI-driven tools,digital platforms and effective supplier collaboration as it expanded its presence near key suppliers.34 A strong order backlog,disciplined financial management and production efficiency further fueled profitability and cash f

76、low growth.35Meanwhile,major suppliersSafran,GE Aerospace and Pratt&Whitneycapitalized on market tailwinds like rising air travel demand and strong aftermarket services(MRO&cabin retrofitting),reporting 12%to 33%commercial aerospace revenue growth in 2024.36Figure 11:Business-cycle stance (commercia

77、l aerospace revenue)outlook Next 6 months Next 12 months Next 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncrease17Among the executives we surveyed,61%expect revenue growth over the next six months and 76%see an increase over the next yeara sign of growing confidence in supply chain improvements and production scalab

78、ility(Figure 11).18Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportProduction outlookCommercial aerospace production is showing early signs of recovery,but supply chain uncertainties continue to challenge OEMs and suppliers as they work to ramp up output.Airbus is pressing ahead with its A320 ramp-up,aiming for

79、75 aircraft per month by 2027,while scaling A220 production to 14 planes by 2026.A350 output remains on track for 12 aircraft per month by 2028.38 To support suppliers,Airbus is providing financial assistance and working to secure critical components,streamline logistics and pre-empt bottlenecks.39M

80、eanwhile,engine suppliers are adapting to shifting demand.CFM International plans to increase LEAP turbofan production by up to 20%in 2025.It is diversifying suppliers and reducing reliance on single-country sources to mitigate supply chain riskseasing pressure on Airbus and Boeing.40Despite labor d

81、isruptions and weak 737 MAX sales,Hexcels Q4 commercial aerospace sales rose 4.6%.Growth in the A320 and 787 programs provided some momentum,and the company expects up to 10%growth in 2025 driven by Airbuss production recovery.However,persistent supply chain constraints threaten sustained growth.Man

82、ufacturers are strengthening supply chains,optimizing operations and adopting advanced manufacturing.Dassault Systmes is integrating 3D design software with Apple Vision Pro,enabling remote collaboration to improve efficiency and cut costs.41 Airbus has automated production at its Hamburg-Finkenwerd

83、er facility,streamlining workflows and boosting A321XLR output.Amid supply chain pressures,manufacturers that invest in digitalization,automation and supply chain diversification will be best positioned to emerge stronger from the current disruption.42 Despite a positive outlook,supply chain disrupt

84、ions continue to challenge OEMs.Boeing faces supplier issues and quality control setbacks,slowing its production ramp-up.While it initially targeted production of 38 737 MAX aircraft by May 2025,the industry remains skeptical of its ability to meet that goal.Supplier-driven delays in 787 and 777X pr

85、oduction further strain its ability to scale output.37Figure 12:Production capacity outlookNext 6 months Next 12 months Next 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncrease18The near-term outlook shows cautious optimism,with 51%of executives expecting production to increase in the next six months.Optimism strengt

86、hens over the longer term,with 73%expecting a significant ramp-up in two years(Figure 12).19Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportSupplier delivery outlook Rising production targets at OEMs and strong aftermarket demand are further straining supply chains,though early signs of improvement are emerging.

87、Nevertheless,both manufacturers are actively working to improve their supply chains.Boeing is enhancing communication with suppliers at various levels,46 while Airbus is focused on resolving bottlenecks from critical supplierskey obstacles to their planned production ramp-ups.47Prolonged supply chai

88、n disruptions have drawn criticism from IATA Director General Willie Walsh,who describes the situation as a quasi-monopoly among suppliers:“They are benefitting from supply chain issues.There is no evidence that they are resolving this.”Hundreds of jets remain grounded due to engine and spare part s

89、hortages,while the average aircraft age has climbed from 12 years in 1990 to 14.8 years in 2024.48Further,escalating trade tensionsparticularly between the US and Chinaare complicating global supplier relationships.Industry leaders warn this would further strain supply chains,hitting OEMs and suppli

90、ers already dealing with material shortages,labor constraints and rising costs.49Efforts to ease bottlenecks using digital tools are underway.Airbus relies on Sensolus IoT tracking tool to improve supply chain visibility and efficiency,while Boeing uses a digital Supplier Portal for secure access an

91、d order management.50 More recently,Embraer has launched ONEChaina digital platform aimed at improving supply chain transparency,agility and collaboration.51 Meanwhile,officials from Frances aerospace association GIFAS see signs of improvement in OEM-supplier coordination,attributing it to shorter t

92、raining cycles and digitization that free up experts to focus more on production.52Suppliers expect Boeing to reach its target of producing 38 737 MAX a month by early 2026at least six months behind target.Airbus suppliers are gearing up to support a production rate of 60 A320 jets per month by late

93、 2025,but supply chain pressures remain a hurdle.44 Sinead Cormican,head of leasing customers at Airbus,says the company is dealing with“10 times more issues on a daily basis”than before.45Eighty-five percent of executives express confidence in their supply chains ability to deliver on time and main

94、tain quality over the next six months(Figure 13),up from 77%in August.43 This is the first time since the pandemic that short-term confidence has exceeded 80%though risks remain.Next 6 months Next 12 months Next 24 monthsNot MeetMeetExceedFigure 13:Supplier delivery outlook1920Commercial Aerospace I

95、nsight ReportProduction input cost outlookRising raw material prices,escalating subsystem costs and higher wages are driving up production expenses,making strategic cost management essential.The short-term outlook for raw material costs remains uncertain,with 51%of executives expecting price increas

96、es in the next six monthsnearly unchanged from six months ago.However,concerns grow over the longer term,with 66%forecasting higher costs within a year and 73%within two years(Figure 14).The US administrations 25%tariff on steel and aluminum is driving up raw material costs,forcing aerospace manufac

97、turers to rethink sourcing.Some are stockpiling materials,while others,like Optima Aero,are relocating inventory to navigate tariffs.However,many suppliers are struggling to secure alternative sources or negotiate better pricing.Combined with ongoing supply chain disruptions,these pressures are sque

98、ezing margins and straining production.53 The cost pressures are visible in industry indicators.Over the past six months,the Producer Price Index for aerospace manufacturing has inched up,signaling creeping cost pressures.54 Short-term stability offers little relief.While 56%of executives expect sub

99、-system and parts costs to hold steady over the next six months,concerns mount over the longer term.Within a year,63%anticipate price increases,rising to 78%by the two-year mark(Figure 15).Labor costs follow a similar trajectory:51%foresee stability in the near term,but 61%predict increases within t

100、he next 12 months and beyond(Figure 16).Figure 15:Subsystem or parts cost outlookNext 6 months Next 12 months Next 24 monthsDecreaseMaintain IncreaseFigure 16:Production labor cost outlookNext 6 months Next 12 months Next 24 monthsDecreaseMaintain IncreaseNext 6 months Next 12 months Next 24 monthsD

101、ecreaseMaintain IncreaseFigure 14:Raw materials cost outlook2021Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportWhats keeping aerospace leaders up at night?22Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportOngoing macroeconomic volatility,shifting trade policies and supply chain uncertainties are redefining the risk landscap

102、eputting resilience and strategic planning at the top of aerospace leaders agendas.Executives remain wary of both economic and geopolitical risks,but political instability is now adding a fresh layer of volatility to an already uncertain outlook(Figure 17).Recent geopolitical developments prompted E

103、uropean leaders to call for proactive countermeasures.While both sides have temporarily paused tariff measures,the broader impact remains unclear as the situation continues to evolve.55 Some financial indicatorssuch as exchange and interest rateshave stabilized,providing short-term relief.Regional c

104、onflicts and terrorism remain low on executives radar,while immediate concerns over weather volatility have subsidedlikely due to improved adaptation strategies.The FAAs NextGen Weather Program,which uses predictive analytics to mitigate weather-related disruptions,has boosted operational resilience

105、.56 However,supply chain disruptions and macroeconomic uncertainties persist,highlighting the need for strategic planning.57 As executives navigate an unpredictable global landscape,they remain focused on resilienceensuring the industry adapts to shifting trade policies,market pressures and evolving

106、 risks.Figure 17:Executives risk concern levels(versus current levels)Political conditionsEconomic conditionsTerrorismPolitical instabilityMediumLowSimilarSimilarSimilarMediumMediumRegional armed conflictsWorsening economic conditionsInterest rate changesExchange rate changesWeather volatilityClimat

107、e changeMediumLowMediumMediumMediumMediumMediumMediumLowLowSimilarGreaterSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarSimilarPrevious report impact expectationCurrent impact expectationBroader categoriesRisk factorNext 6 monthsNext 12 month

108、sNext 2 yearsNote:This analysis reflects sentiment and data collected prior to the April 2025 escalation in trade tensions.23Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportRegional outlook24Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportBoeings recovery holds key to growthAfter flat growth(2%)in 2024,North Americas commerc

109、ial aerospace market could see up to a 10%revenue increase in 2025.However,risks remain:Macroeconomic uncertainty,shifting trade policies and stretched supply chains could create potential headwinds for the recovery.Boeings performance will be central to the regions recovery.Under new leadership,Boe

110、ing is restructuring its operations to tackle inefficiencies.The company is shutting down“shadow factories”facilities dedicated to reworking and repairing planes rather than building new ones.58 Its also aiming to implement a four-pronged strategy focused on cultural transformation,operational stabi

111、lity,improved execution discipline and long-term investments.However,external headwinds remain.Escalating trade tensions have led China to pause deliveries of Boeing aircraft,adding geopolitical uncertainty to an already complex recovery path.59MRO providers and suppliers are seeing renewed momentum

112、.GE Aerospace has announced plans to invest more than$1 billion to expand and upgrade its MRO facilities worldwide.60 GKN Aerospace is doubling its MRO capacity in North America with a new facility in San Diego.61Figure 18:Outlook for North America1H 2025 vs.1H 2024RisingRisingRising2025 vs.20242H 2

113、025 vs.1H 2025Figure 19:North America commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)North AmericaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4201820212024201920222025202020232026ForecastActual160140120100806040200Q1 Q2 Q3 Q425Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportFocus shifts to resilience

114、Europes commercial aerospace industry is expected to extend its post-pandemic recovery,with a projected 7%expansion in 2025.Airbus plans to deliver 820 commercial aircraft in 2025,a 7%increase from 2024,despite a slower-than-expected ramp-up of the A350 and A220 programs.62 Macroeconomic uncertainty

115、,persistent supply chain constraints and regulatory pressures could weigh on the regions outlook.To sustain growth,European aerospace players are investing in manufacturing and supply chain resilience.MRO providers and major suppliers are expanding capacity to meet demand.GE Aerospace has announced

116、a$130 million expansion to scale its European MRO footprint and Airbuss planned acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems European operations is likely to enhance supply chain stability and strengthen aerostructure production.63Sustainability is also moving up the agenda.In January 2025,European aviation st

117、akeholders launched a sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)acceleration toolkit,which mandates 2%SAF blend by 2025,rising to 70%by 2050.64Figure 20:Outlook for Europe1H 2025 vs.1H 2024RisingRisingRising2025 vs.20242H 2025 vs.1H 2025Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q420182021202

118、4201920222025202020232026ForecastActual160140120100806040200Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4EuropeFigure 21:Europes commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)26Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q2Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q3Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4201820212024201920222025202020232026ForecastActualQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4Air

119、 travel demand continues to drive growthAsia-Pacific is cementing its position as the worlds fastest-growing commercial aerospace market,with 14%YoY growth projected in 2025 after a 15%increase last year.This expansion will be fueled by rising air travel demand,large-scale fleet expansions and inves

120、tments by global aerospace playersthough emerging trade tensions and macro volatility could test the regions resilience.The industrys center of gravity is evolving,with India emerging as a key manufacturing and MRO hub.Boeing,Airbus,GE Aerospace,Safran and Pratt&Whitney are expanding sourcing,facili

121、ties and workforce investments in the country.Indias MRO industry is set to grow over 50%between 2024 and 2026,driven by a 20-25%expansion in airline fleets.65Australia is also strengthening its MRO capabilities,with Qantas investing in a new engineering hub in Brisbane,while South Korea is building

122、 Asias largest aircraft engine MRO facility.66 Airlines such as Japans ANA Holdings,Korean Air and Thai Airways are also placing large aircraft orders to keep pace with the regions growing passenger base.67A burgeoning middle class and rapid economic growth continue to fuel demand in APAC,positionin

123、g the region as a key driver of aerospace growth for the foreseeable future.1H 2025 vs.1H 2024RisingRisingRising2025 vs.20242H 2025 vs.1H 2025Figure 22:Outlook for Asia-PacificAsia-Pacific400350300250200150100500Figure 23:Asia-Pacific commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)27Commercial Aerospace In

124、sight ReportRegional forecasts are in the highest-impact regional currency,with the global index aggregated in US dollars,using current exchange rates(at the time of writing).The index baseline year is 2018,and both regional and global indices are based on this year.To complement econometric modelin

125、g,we polled executives at major commercial aerospace companies.The outlook indicators in this report are based on a combination of Accentures econometric modeling and that global commercial aerospace executive poll.We conducted our poll in January-February 2025;views are subject to considerable chan

126、ge as conditions can rapidly evolve.SupplyDemandBusiness cycle stanceForecasting econometric value modelingProduction outlookExecutive pollExecutive pollAircraft operationsProduction inputsThe Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Report combines sophisticated econometric modeling methodologies to

127、drive quantitative quarterly forecasts on the health of the commercial aviation market with insights from leading aerospace executives worldwide.It provides a unique perspective on short-and medium-term trends and drivers in this market,covering a wide range of activities,from suppliers to MROs.Abou

128、t the Accenture Commercial Aerospace Market Insight ReportVisit us at Aerospace Insight Report1.MRO Demand Forecast To Top$282 Billion In 2025|Aviation Week Network,December 20242.Google Cloud partners with Air France-KLM on AI technology|Reuters,December 20243.IATA-Strengthened Profitability Expect

129、ed in 2025 Even as Supply Chain Issues Persist,December 20244.How Alaska Airlines Uses AI to Cut Jet-Fuel Costs and Boost Efficiency-Business Insider,November 20245.JAL and NEC Test AI Powered Carry On Baggage Analysis SolutionJAL Group-Press Release,November 20246.Ortberg:787 Production Quality Mus

130、t Improve Before Rate Increase,February 20257.Reinforcing CFM Supply Chain,Safran Confirms Leap Production Surge,February 20258.Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August-September 20249.Accenture narrow-and wide-body deliveries forecast10.Airbus reports Full-Year(FY)2024 results,February 2025;Boein

131、g Reports Fourth Quarter Results,January 202511.Orders and deliveries,202412.Embraer reached 75 deliveries in the last quarter of 2024,for a total of 206 new aircraft in the year,January 202513.Accenture Research in-house Analysis,February 202514.Accenture Research in-house Analysis,February 202515.

132、Boeing executive says supplier Spirit Aero has a substantial inventory of 737 fuselages,February 202516.Rolls-Royce to double sourcing from India over the next five years,February 2025;Collins Aerospace looks at higher sourcing of components from India,April 2024;India sourcing to reach nearly$150 m

133、illion annually by 2030:PW,February 202417.GE Aerospace Reiterates Strong 2025 Outlook,December 202418.MRO Demand Forecast To Top$282 Billion In 2025|Aviation Week Network,December 202419.Asias airlines blame supply chain woes for disrupted operations|Reuters,December 202420.Coalition Delivers Repor

134、t to Help Prevent Future Unapproved Parts from Entering Aviation Supply Chain -The Aviation Supply Chain Integrity Coalition,October 202421.Lessors Target In-House MRO Capability Investments|Aviation Week Network,January 202522.Global aerospace firms turn to India amid Western supply chain crisis-Th

135、e Economic Times,February 202523.AI Wingmate Created in Six Weeks|GE Aerospace News,November 2024;EMEA MROs Focus On Building Internal Technical Skills|Aviation Week Network,January 202524.How Aerogility supports Rolls-Royce with sustainability goals in a nothing short of fantastic partnership,Febru

136、ary 202425.MRO Industry Expands Potential AI Use Cases|Aviation Week Network,January 202526.IATA-Strengthened Profitability Expected in 2025 Even as Supply Chain Issues Persist,December 202427.Ibidem28.Ibidem29.United Airlines Use Of Generative AI Results In 6%Improvement In Overall Customer Satisfa

137、ction,December 202430.Boeings Wisk Aero clears key FAA hurdle for autonomous air taxis,November 202431.Airbus Financial Statements FY 2024,A,February 202532.The Boeing Company 2024 Annual Report,B,January 202533.EARNINGS RESULTS 4Q24 AND FY2024,February 202534.RESULTS 4Q&FY 2024,February 202435.Embr

138、aer reached an all-time US$26.3 billion backlog record in the last quarter of 2024,February 202536.GE 2024 10-K;Form 10-K for RTX Corp filed 02/03/2025;Howmet-Aerospace-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results.pdf,February 2025;Safran reports its full-year 2024 results|Safran,February 20253

139、7.The Most Critical Year-2025 Will Determine Boeings Future,December 202438.Airbus reports Full-Year(FY)2024 results,February 202539.Airbus helps suppliers financially to boost productivity,January 2025;Airbus reports Full-Year(FY)2024 results|Airbus,February 202540.Reinforcing CFM Supply Chain,Safr

140、an Confirms Leap Production Surge|Aviation Week Network,February 2025References29Commercial Aerospace Insight Report41.Dassault Systmes partners with Apple to put industrial 3D software on Vision Pro|Reuters,February 202542.Aviation:The New Logic of Flying-WELT,December 202443.Commercial Aerospace I

141、nsight Survey,January-February 202544.MAX Suppliers Expect Rate 38 In 2026;A320 Suppliers Dubious Of Target 75,November 202445.Airbus Points To Ongoing Supplier Issues At ISTAT Conference,September 202446.The Boeing Company,Q4 2024 Earnings Call,January 202547.Airbus SE,2024 Earnings Call,February 2

142、02548.Airbus SE,2024 Earnings Call,February 202549.Trump tariff threats send aerospace suppliers scrambling to cushion blow,January 202550.Sensolus IoT Tracking makes Airbus workflows transparent,all-about-,August 2024,Supplier Portal and Exostar,accessed February 202551.Embraer launches ONEChain Pr

143、ogram to increase efficiency within supply chain operations,November 2024 52.Daily Memo:French Supply Chain Sees Signs Of Better Times Ahead,January 202553.Trump tariff threats send aerospace suppliers scrambling to cushion blow|Reuters,January 202554.US Producer Price Index:Other Aircraft Parts and

144、 Equipment Manufacturing Monthly Insights:Producer Price Index|YCharts,January 202555.EU pauses tariff retaliation for 90 days to match Trump move,holding out hope for talks,April 202556.Aviation Weather Research Program|Federal Aviation Administration,Accessed February 202557.Global aerospace firms

145、 turn to India amid Western supply chain crisis|Reuters,February 202558.Boeings Push to Boost 737 Production Starts With Closing Shadow Factory,February 202559.Boeing-4Q24-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf,January 202560.GE Aerospace Investing$1 Billion to Expand and Upgrade MRO Facilities Worldwide,July

146、 202461.GKN Aerospace expands global repair network with new San Diego facility,December 202462.Airbus reports Full-Year(FY)2024 results,February 202563.GE Aerospace Investing$130 Million to Expand and Upgrade MRO Facilities in Europe|GE Aerospace News,October 2024;Airbus to sign deal with Spirit Ae

147、ro in weeks:CFO|Reuters,February 2025 64.European Aviation Industry publishes toolkit to fast-track Sustainable Fuel production in Europe and accelerate decarbonisation Airlines for Europe,January 202565.Indian aircraft maintenance,repair&overhaul business to see 50%topline growth in FY26:Crisil,Jan

148、uary 202566.FIRST APPRENTICES START TRAINING AT NEW QANTAS GROUP ENGINEERING ACADEMY IN BRISBANE,.au,January 2025;Asias largest aircraft engine MRO facility to be built,March 202467.Japans ANA taps Boeing,Airbus,Embraer in 77-jet order|Reuters,December 2024;Thai Airways To Double Fleet By 2029 As It

149、 Exits Debt-Restructuring,February 2025;Korean Air finalises order for 33 A350s,April 2024References30Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportAbout Accenture Accenture is a leading global professional services company that helps the worlds leading businesses,governments and other organizations build thei

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