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1、29 April 2025Allianz ResearchEight lessons learned from 20 years of ESG investingAllianz Research2Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 5 Lesson 1:A double tragedy requires a new lensPage 6 Lesson 2:ESG is a bet on changePage 7-9 Lesson 3:From hype to resiliencePage 10-12 Lesson 4:Europe is in the

2、leadPage 13 Lesson 5:ESG as smart risk managementPage 14 Lesson 6:Integrating ESG with traditional financial analysisPage 15 Lesson 7:ESG is a fiduciary dutyPage 16 Lesson 8:The insurance industry as a powerful case study29 Aril 2025 ESG investing is the answer to a double tragedy.Global systemic ri

3、sks such as climate change are particularly challenging to address because they embody two intertwined dilemmas:a tragedy of the commons and a tragedy of the horizon.ESG investing has emerged as a mechanism for bridging the gap between short-term pressures and these long-term sustainability imperati

4、ves.A bet on change.ESG metrics as a risk and analytical tool provide an essential lens through which to navigate the investment landscape,focusing on avoiding idiosyncratic risks today while anticipating long-term systemic risks and opportunities tomorrow.Rather than assuming a continuation of the

5、status quo,they enable investors and institutions to manage change and drive innovation.Moving from hype to mainstream.Investor attitudes towards sustainable investing have evolved from early hype to more sober resilience,reflecting the classic Gartner Hype Cycle framework.Indeed,the performance of

6、ESG investments has been quite volatile over the past 15 years,mostly for the same reasons as non-ESG portfolios.But overall,ESG funds have proven resilient,continuing to see inflows and sustained growth.This shift towards more stable assets shows that sustainable investing has matured,not disappear

7、ed.Europe dominates ESG investing.The extent to which ESG investing is prominent in portfolios varies widely by region.Europe is by far the leader supportive regulations and strong investor demand have driven sustainable investing into the mainstream.European funds have a much higher proportion of E

8、SG assets as a percentage of total assets under management than any other region around a fifth,compared with low single-digit percentages in the US or emerging markets.ESG investing is intelligent risk management.Beyond regional differences,a growing number of investors share a common motivation:th

9、ey continue to view ESG considerations as a form of prudent risk management that offers strategic foresight.ESG does not guarantee success.But it does provide investors with a structural toolkit to seek,identify and analyze risks and opportunities beyond what can be deduced strictly from quarterly r

10、eports.3SummaryExecutiveArne HolzhausenHead of Insurance,Wealth&ESG RLudovic SubranChief Investment Officer&Chief EGernot WagnerColumbia Business School,New York,NYMarkus ZimmerSenior Economist,ESGAllianz Research4 A complement to traditional financial analysis.Analysis that incorporates ESG conside

11、rations works best as a complement not a substitute for traditional financial analysis.The metrics are designed to complement,not replace,fundamentals such as earnings and cash flow.They can highlight risks or opportunities that a pure numbers view might miss.Used properly,they can lead to smarter s

12、trategic decisions while preserving core financial fundamentals.A fiduciary duty.Investors fiduciary duty is increasingly intertwined with prudent ESG-based risk management.By incorporating ESG factors,asset owners and managers are constantly rethinking how they can continue to thrive in an era that

13、 looks increasingly different from the past.This refines their pursuit of long-term returns and forces them to balance client demand for ESG with their fiduciary duty,recognizing that ignoring material ESG factors may itself mean failing their clients.ESG investing matters for insurance.The insuranc

14、e sector offers a powerful case study of why ESG cannot be ignored.As climate disasters intensify,insurers face rising claims:2024 was the fifth consecutive year that insured costs from natural catastrophes worldwide exceeded USD100bn.Major insurers,particularly in Europe,have responded by committin

15、g to net-zero targets for both their underwriting and investment portfolios to reduce long-term risks.Such forward-looking moves are not just about keeping losses manageable;they also build valuable intangibles such as brand reputation,intellectual property and stakeholder trust.29 Aril 20255Lesson

16、1:A double tragedy Global systemic risks like climate change are exceptionally challenging to address because they embody two intertwined dilemmas:a tragedy of the commons(each actor benefits from collective climate action but has an incentive to free-ride)and a tragedy of the horizon(the worst impa

17、cts lie beyond current planning cycles).Tackling this problem requires unprecedented global coordination over timelines much longer than markets or governments usually consider.ESG investing has emerged as a mechanism to bridge the gap between short-term pressures and these long-term sustainability

18、imperatives.It means integrating broad systemic risks(like climate change or a global financial crisis)and company-specific idiosyncratic risks(like governance failures or product defects)into decision-making.It encourages extended time horizons,“big picture”thinking and adaptation to societal and e

19、nvironmental shifts.In this context,asset owners,who are particularly susceptible to systemic risks in their business models as opposed to asset managers that can outcompete even in a falling market have more vocally signaled the long-term risks that they experience and forecast.Businesses that bene

20、fit from perpetuating the status quo have an easier time justifying and obstructing the process of addressing systemic risks,and those that need these risks addressed are faced with the problem continually of what is the best way to do so.This splitting of interests on how to address these risks lea

21、ves a fragmentation of voice and action.requires a new lensAllianz Research6Rather than assuming the continuation of the status quo,integrating ESG is ultimately about preparing for the future,enabling investors and institutions to manage change and drive innovation.It does so by using current perfo

22、rmance indicators for idiosyncratic risks,while considering systemic issues via sustainability mindsets.Investors and firms that take ESG seriously are working to avoid immediate value losses,whereby those taking a strong sustainability approach position themselves for a world inevitably shaped by t

23、he low-carbon transition and evolving social expectations.This does not mean placing all business strategy on one outcome,like 1.5C alignment which looks increasingly unlikely as a global goal.Instead,it means orientating ourselves to be resilient in a 1.5 scenario and any other lower-carbon scenari

24、o than the current trajectory.Efforts are focused on the no regret decisions we can take today,while continuing to support the real economy in meeting the most ambitious commitments of the Paris agreement.Already nearly half of the worlds 2,000 largest companies have set formal net-zero targets(and

25、another 11%have pledged to)a broad shift beyond short-term profit motives.Companies known for responsible,long-term practices tend to attract loyal customers,talented employees and patient investors,translating into durable competitive advantages over time.In a real sense,strong sustainability perfo

26、rmance in the form of setting durable commitments and targets and then measuring,reporting and verifying progress toward these targets builds trust and brand value that support sustained returns.Over time,investor sentiment rewards these firms if they believe ESG leaders are more attractive long-ter

27、m investments than those focused purely on short-term financials.Thus,sustainability embodied in brand trust and stakeholder goodwill becomes a strategic factor in investment portfolios,indirectly influencing valuations and capital flows.Lesson 2:ESG is a bet on change29 Aril 20257Investor attitudes

28、 toward sustainable investing have evolved from early hype to a more sober resilience.In the mid-2010s,a wave of optimism drove a surge of capital into funds that took into account ESG considerations when doing fundamental analyses.These funds started naming conventions like“green”or“ESG”,and capita

29、l flows into them was pushing into the trillions.Some of that enthusiasm was excessive,and it combined with actors jumping on the bandwagon by doing very little to integrate ESG-related KPIs,instead assigning an ESG label but only doing some surface-level activities like adding exclusions on earmark

30、ed industries.ESG was used as a superficial marketing tag rather than a rigorous analytical approach.Such window-dressing led to confusion and backlash,as shallow ESG claims were rightly criticized for failing to deliver real risk management or value.As a result,by the early 2020s,the market was inc

31、reasingly confused between those who address ESG risks,those who do so nested within a wider sustainability approach and those doing window-dressing activities and then just calling it ESG.This made it difficult to understand performance and to distinguish between good and lazy actors.Hence,the mark

32、et started to self-correct as investors realized simply having a green symbol on a ticker or an ESG word in a title is not a guaranteed win:over time,ESG funds have sometimes outperformed and sometimes underperformed and disentangling the drivers is difficult.In fact,the performance of ESG investing

33、 over the last 15 years has fluctuated quite widely and mostly for the same reasons as non-ESG portfolios do,driven by macroeconomic conditions,global crises and sector-specific trends.For example,ESG strategies suffered substantial losses in 2022 amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting energy

34、 crisis that drove up energy prices and led to outsize returns for oil and gas companies and gas utilities.ESG investing does not guarantee outsize returns,but it is also no drag on performance for the sake of ethics.Over the last decade,sustainable investments delivered comparable returns to tradit

35、ional investments.Normal rules of investment strategies still apply(Figure 1).Lesson 3:From hype to resilienceAllianz Research8Figure 1:ESG alpha returns over time in bpsSources:Roncalli,T.(2025),Handbook of Sustainable Finance,Allianz ResearchThe crucial point is that by marrying ESG data on idiosy

36、ncratic risk with systemic risk considerations,competitive returns can be achieved.As a consequence,ESG funds have proved resilient,continuing to see inflows and durable growth.This shift toward steadier assets highlights that sustainable investing has matured,not vanished.This applies in particular

37、 to ESG bond funds,which have proven resilient,maintaining modest yet steady inflows(Figure 2).This trend aligns with investors who are recalibrating their enthusiasm and reallocating ESG capital towards the relative stability of fixed-income assets.In turn,it reinforces the argument that while ESG

38、fervor in equity markets has cooled,sustainable investing remains a core strategy;the bond markets continued ESG commitment underscores a more stable,long-term confidence in ESG principles.ESG remains a core part of many portfolios now pursued with more realism and discipline than at the height of t

39、he hype.-600-400-2000200400600800100020092011201320152017201920212023MSCI USA ESGLeadersMSCI USA SRIMSCI EMU ESGLeadersMSCI EMU SRIMSCI EM ESG LeadersS&P 500 ESG29 Aril 20259This evolution from hype to disillusionment to moving to the mainstream might have annoyed many investors but it is a rather n

40、ormal pattern.In fact,it mirrors the classic Gartner Hype Cycle framework(Figure 3).During the initial boom,ESG reached a peak of inflated expectations as surging inflows and optimistic analyses fueled sky-high hopes.When real-world performance and implementation complexities failed to fully live up

41、 to those outsized expectations,enthusiasm cooled effectively plunging ESG into a trough of disillusionment,marked by slower fund flows and rising skepticism.Interest waned and some early advocates pulled back.Yet,this correction has not invalidated ESGs core premise or long-term potential.Figure 2:

42、Bond ESG fund net inflows in USD bnSources:EPFR Global,Allianz Research11213009920-2-1001020US ESGGlobalEUAsia Pac.EMInflows(USD,bln)20232024Figure 3:The Gartner Hype Cycle frameworkHype levelEngineeringor business maturityHype cycleSources:Dedehayir,O.and Steinert,M.(2016),The hype cycle model:A re

43、view and future directions,Allianz ResearchAs the hype dies down,investor focus is shifting from grand promises to concrete outcomes a transition that signals the climb up the slope of enlightenment.Market participants are learning from early missteps and refocusing on tangible value creation and ri

44、sk mitigation.While a vocal minority of investors and policymakers seized on the pullback to question ESGs legitimacy(branding it a“woke”or political agenda),the forces propelling ESG remain firmly in place.Regulatory pressures,long-term risk management imperatives and stakeholder demands for corpor

45、ate responsibility continue to push sustainable investing forward.According to Gartners model,such temporary disillusionment is not a permanent defeat but rather a normal precursor to broader adoption.Accordingly,ESG investing is expected to mature and eventually attain a plateau of productivity,whe

46、re sustainability integration becomes standard practice and yields consistent,measurable returns.Allianz Research10The extent to which ESG investing is prominent in portfolios varies widely by region,shaped by different realities of what makes local businesses(those heavily weighted in respective in

47、vestor portfolios)successful or not,regulations and politics.On regulation Europe leads by far supportive rules and strong investor demand have made sustainable investing mainstream and given Europe a bigger share in ESG assets than other regions(Figure 4).In particular,major regulatory initiatives

48、such as the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation(SFDR)and the EU Taxonomy have been introduced to increase transparency and direct capital toward sustainable investments.These policies help drive more structured ESG practices,for example by requiring the adoption of credible net-zero transition

49、 plans as part of the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive effective 2028.As a result,European funds have a far higher proportion of ESG assets relative to their total assets under management(AUM)than any other region roughly one-fifth of all European fund assets are ESG-oriented,comp

50、ared to low single-digit percentages in the US or emerging markets(Figure 5).Lesson 4:Europe is in the lead29 Aril 202511Figure 4:ESG funds AUM by regional focus in USD bn(end-2024)Sources:EPFR Global,Allianz Research02004006008001000120020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025USD blnGlobalEUUSE

51、MAPFigure 5:Share of ESG funds in total AUM(%)22%12%6%5%4%2%0%5%10%15%20%25%EUGlobalEMEPFR ESG Asia PacificUSSources:EPFR Global,Allianz ResearchAllianz Research12The low adoption in the US reflects in part the politicized pushback that casts ESG as part of a“woke”partisan agenda.However,it is diffi

52、cult to find companies that are commercially successful,even in the US,without also having strong sustainability performance relative to their peers.This is seen in the extent to which the ESG scores are much stronger in the west and developed countries though that is a trend that is ending.As a res

53、ult,even though the majority of successful companies put a high standard on strong sustainability performance as a response to market demands of customers,shareholders,suppliers and communities,the free market nature of this attitude means adoption into regulation in the US lags.ESG metrics are seen

54、 as a means of risk mitigation and mission alignment,with less direct regulatory compulsion.Further,given the significant size and influence of companies in the US that operate in sectors that benefit from maintaining the status quo and given the very nature of the USs built environment and the popu

55、lations consumption habits there is strong opposition from companies that are threatened by the energy transition and their trade associations.Consequently,they challenge efforts to accelerate the transition via regulation.Meanwhile,Asia-Pacific and other emerging markets are catching up fast.Though

56、 starting from a smaller base,these regions have logged rapid growth in investee companies as awareness that their operations must be accepted and rewarded by their stakeholders has increased,and therefore looking after sustainability performance has also increased.This has also largely been spurred

57、 by systemic issue awareness like climate change when governments roll out their own economic plans to capitalize on the need for sustainable economies,and the fact that getting there first can strongly position themselves as leaders.This is further supported by their requirements on green finance i

58、nitiatives.The global gap in sustainability focus is expected to narrow,even if Europes head start persists for now.29 Aril 202513Lesson 5:ESG as smart risk managementBesides regional differences,a growing number of investors share a common motivation:they continue to view ESG considerations as a fo

59、rm of prudent risk management that offers strategic foresight.Applying an ESG lens via active stewardship teams helps identify non-financial idiosyncratic risks from health and safety performance standards to supply-chain diligence that could materially undermine short-term returns and long-term via

60、bility.At the same time,sustainability focus on broader trends and systemic risks helps determine investment views and leads to investors implementing methods for aligning portfolios with structural trends and stakeholder expectations,effectively future-proofing investment strategies.In Europe,regul

61、ators reinforce this logic through mandatory sustainability disclosures and credible transition plans.But even in less regulated environments,investors increasingly recognize that overlooking ESG risks is an incomplete picture on company evaluations and avoiding sustainability considerations is shor

62、tsighted.The objective is not virtue signaling,it is resilience:building strategies robust enough to avoid incidents and negative attention from idiosyncratic problems while using sustainability informed strategies to weather long-range disruptions rather than being blindsided by them.Regardless of

63、political noise,the transition to low-carbon,high-efficiency technologies is not a matter of if but when and how fast.This shift is anything but smooth or linear.It creates a dual landscape:on one side,the risk of stranded assets in high-carbon,low-efficiency sectors or among holdings most exposed t

64、o unmitigated climate risk;on the other,a spectrum of investment opportunities in low-carbon,high-efficiency technologies and assets better positioned for climate resilience.In the end,the business case for considering ESG and applying convictions on society and business trajectories by considering

65、sustainability topics is anchored in financial materiality.ESG risks are financial risks.1 Stewardship is the proactive responsibility of investors to guide and oversee the companies they invest in,with the aim of safeguarding long-term value.It involves using ones influence as an owner or lender th

66、rough activities like voting,setting expectations and strategic dialogue to ensure investee companies manage material ESG risks and sustainability issues.Effective stewardship means helping companies to mitigate risks and capi-talize on opportunities for sustainable growth.Allianz Research14Analysis

67、 that builds in ESG considerations works best as a complement not a substitute to traditional financial analysis.The metrics are meant to augment fundamentals like earnings and cash flow,not replace them.They can highlight risks or advantages that a purely numbers-only view might miss.For the same r

68、eason that industrial players built in health and safety metrics into their performance scorecards,especially focusing on risky situations and near losses,investors should adopt a ESG lens:an identified risk in risky incidents precludes loss events occurring.In practice,this means neither chasing ES

69、G scores at the expense of financial basics nor ignoring ESG data altogether.Instead,the goal is to integrate material ESG insights into the valuation process to get a holistic picture of a companys short to mid-term performance and potential idiosyncratic risks,also as a proxy to understand their s

70、ustainability performance and longer-term prospects.Otherwise,investing with ESG blind spots is like flying with one eye closed it gives an incomplete view of potential risks and returns.Its the holistic score that drives real business outcomes.Lesson 6:Integrating ESG with traditional financial ana

71、lysis29 Aril 202515Investors fiduciary duty is increasingly intertwined with ESG-based prudent risk management.Major asset managers are already planning for a low-carbon future.BlackRock,for instance,“anticipates”around 75%of its portfolio holdings to have science-based climate targets by 2030(up fr

72、om 25%in 2022).This forward-looking stance reflects a recognition that focusing on near-term returns without consideration to the extent that they can succeed in a rapidly evolving business and societal landscape is no longer sufficient.As a consequence,fiduciary responsibility is being reframed:in

73、the absence of clear guidance from asset owners and clients,it has always been assumed that pushing for the most immediate returns is the default objective.However,it is increasingly clear that when pursuing their risk/return objectives clients and asset owners value business models that do not boom

74、 and bust,lack resiliency or harm the long-term performance of economic system as a whole.Therefore,acting in clients best interests now explicitly includes looking beyond the next quarter.Neglecting foreseeable ESG risks is a bet that the market or society will not price them.Given the history of b

75、acklash against companies performing poorly on ESG topics,ignoring such factors will increasingly be seen as negligent,since these factors will shape financial performance in the coming decades.Investors not acting on sustainability are in effect betting that the markets cannot and will not perceive

76、 the risk.That is clearly myopic.Together,net-zero pledges with the call for other actors to meet their own commitments and this enlightened view of fiduciary duty,act as anchors that keep capital focused on the far horizon and help overcome the short-termism plaguing markets.Therefore,shareholders

77、and beneficiaries of both asset owners(e.g.pension funds,insurers)and asset managers expect robust ESG integration as the norm.This translates into demands for transparency in ESG goals and results,diligent management of long-term risks(like climate change),and strategies that enhance resilience all

78、 while delivering prolonged financial performance.Asset owners are pressing their external managers to follow suit:a newly found,mainly UK based USD1.5trn climate stewardship coalition,for example,signals that if managers fall short on ESG criteria,they risk losing mandates.These are not empty threa

79、ts:One of the UKs largest pension funds,The Peoples Pension,moved GBP28bn out of State Street Global Advisors to Amundi and Invesco,explicitly citing the new managers stronger commitment to sustainability,active stewardship and long-term value creation.At the same time,asset managers are balancing c

80、lient demand for ESG with fiduciary duty,recognizing that ignoring material ESG factors can itself mean failing their clients.In short,aligning investment practices with ESG principles has become key to meeting stakeholder expectations across the investment chain.Lesson 7:ESG is a fiduciary dutyAlli

81、anz Research16Figure 6:Are you concerned going forward it may become more difficult or even impossible to get insurance for natural disasters?Answers in%Sources:The Geneva Association(2023),The value of insurance in a changing landscape,Allianz ResearchThe insurance sector offers a telling case stud

82、y of why ESG factors cannot be ignored.As climate disasters intensify,insurers face rising claims:2024 was the fifth year in a row in which insured costs from natural disasters worldwide exceed the USD100bn mark.This raises the question of adequate and affordable insurance cover.The decision of some

83、 insurers to withdraw from covering some vulnerable areas is a brutal wake-up call.According to a study by the Geneva Association,well over 50%of respondents believe that it will be more difficult to obtain insurance coverage against natural hazards in the future;almost 20%of respondents in France,G

84、ermany and the US even fear that insurance cover could become impossible or far too expensive.(Figure 6)Major insurers,especially in Europe,have responded by committing to net-zero targets across both their underwriting and investment portfolios to reduce long-term risks.Such forward-looking moves a

85、re not just about keeping losses manageable;they also build valuable intangibles like brand reputation,intellectual property and stakeholder trust.These intangible assets comprise an increasingly large share of corporate value(over 80%of S&P 500 market capitalization).These intangibles are deeply in

86、fluenced by a companys sustainability performance and even command a premium in the market.Lesson 8:The insurance industry as a powerful case study0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%USAUKJapanGermanyFranceChinaNo,getting insurance may become easierNo,getting insurance will remain the sameYes,getting i

87、nsurance may become more difficult or expensiveYes,getting insurance may not be possible anymore or too expensiveDont know29 Aril 202517ALLIANZ RESEARCHteamOurAllianz ResearchChief Investment Officer&Chief Economist Allianz SELudovic SAna Boataana.boataallianz-Arne HHead of Economic Research Allianz

88、 TradeHead of Insurance,Wealth&ESG ResearchAllianz SEFranoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huangallianz-Luca MonetaSenior Economist for Emerging Marketsluca.monetaallianz-Macroeconomic ResearchMaxime LemerleLead Advisor,Insolvency Research maxime.lemerleallianz-Ano KuhanathanHead

89、of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathanallianz-Corporate ResearchMichaela GrimmSenior Economist,Demography&Social PKathrin StoffelEconomist,Insurance&WPatricia Pelayo-RomeroSenior Economist,Insurance&ESGpatricia.pelayo-Insurance,Wealth and ESG ResearchCapital Markets ResearchMarkus ZimmerSenior Economis

90、t,ESGJordi Basco CarreraLead Investment Strategistjordi.basco_Maria LatorreSector Advisor,B2Bmaria.latorreallianz-Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK,US&Francemaxime.darmetallianz-Maddalena MartiniSenior Economist for Italy,Greece&BJasmin GrschlSenior Economist for EBjoern GriesbachSeni

91、or Investment Strategist&Eurozone EPatrick HoffmannEconomist,ESG&AIYao LuInvestment SLluis DalmauEconomist for Africa&Middle Eastlluis.dalmauallianz-Hazem KricheneSenior Economist,CSivagaminathan SivasubramanianESG and Data Analyst sivagaminathan.sivasubramanianallianz-Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector

92、Advisorguillaume.dejeanallianz-29 Aril 202519Recent PublicationsDiscover all our publications on our websites:Allianz Research and Allianz Trade Economic Research25/04/2025|What to watch 17/04/2025|What to watch15/04/2025|Rethinking climate adaptation for global resilience11/04/2025|What to watch 10

93、/04/2025|Riders on the storm:Managing uncertainty-updated Outlook04/04/2025|What to watch 28/03/2025|What to watch26/03/2025|Invest in your future:How to save your way out of employment vulnerability20/03/2025|What to watch 18/03/2025|The corporate battlefield:Global insolvencies in times of war eco

94、nomics14/03/2025|What to watch 11/03/2025|Plug,baby,plug:Unlocking Europes electricity market27/02/2025|What to watch 25/02/2025|Climate risk and corporate valuations20/02/2025|What to watch 18/02/2025|From hard-to-abate to decarbonized:Strategies for transforming Europes industrial sector14/02/2025

95、|What to watch 13/02/2025|How Europe can take back the wheel in the global auto sector06/02/2025|What to watch 03/02/2025|Allianz Country Risk Atlas 2025:Repeat and rewind?31/01/2025|What to watch 30/01/2025|Allianz Global Pension Report 2025:Time to walk23/01/2025|What to watch 21/01/2025|Insuring

96、the future:The virtuous cycle of insurance and sustainability16/01/2025|What to watch 15/01/2025|Allianz Risk Barometer:Identifying the major business risks for 202510/01/2025|What to watch09/01/2025|Germany quo vadis?19/12/2024|Economic outlook 2025-26:Defying gravity?12/12/2024|What to watch09/12/

97、2024|Divided we fall The risks of competitive fragmentation on Europes road to net zero06/12/2024|What to watch04/12/2024|The weight is over:How GLP-1 treatments are reshaping pharma and beyond28/11/2024|What to watch27/11/2024|How the retail sector is navigating year-round challengesAllianz Researc

98、h2020Director of PublicationsLudovic Subran,Chief Investment Officer&Chief EconomistAllianz ResearchPhone+49 89 3800 7859Allianz Group Economic Researchhttps:/ 28|80802 Munich|GallianzallianzAllianz Trade Economic Researchhttp:/www.allianz- Place des Saisons|92048 Paris-La-Dfense Cedex|Franceallianz

99、-tradeallianz-tradeAbout Allianz ResearchAllianz Research encompasses Allianz Group Economic Research and the Economic Research department of Allianz Trade.Forward looking statementsThe statements contained herein may include prospects,statements of future expectations and other forward-looking stat

100、ements that are based on managements current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.Actual results,performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.Such deviations may arise due to,without limitation,(

101、i)changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation,particularly in the Allianz Groups core business and core markets,(ii)performance of financial markets(particularly market volatility,liquidity and credit events),(iii)frequency and severity of insured loss events,including from

102、natural catastrophes,and the development of loss expenses,(iv)mortality and morbidity levels and trends,(v)persistency levels,(vi)particularly in the banking business,the extent of credit defaults,(vii)interest rate levels,(viii)currency exchange rates including the EUR/USD exchange rate,(ix)changes

103、 in laws and regulations,including tax regulations,(x)the impact of acquisitions,including related integration issues,and reorganization measures,and(xi)general competitive factors,in each case on a local,regional,national and/or global basis.Many of these factors may be more likely to occur,or more pronounced,as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.No duty to updateThe company assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking statement contained herein,save for any information required to be disclosed by law.