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1、Global Pension Assets Study|2024Global Pensions Assets Study 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Global Pensions Assets StudyThinking Ahead InstituteExecutive summarySection 1Asset SizeSection 2Asset AllocationLimitations of relianceSection 3DB/DC SplitSection 4Methodology0304320341032

2、70343373003142Global Pensions Assets Study 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.3The Thinking Ahead InstituteThe Thinking Ahead Group research teamTim HodgsonRoger UrwinMarisa Hall Jessica GaoAnastassia JohnsonIsabella MartinAndrea CaloisiTianyiLanThe Thinking Ahead Institute(TAI)is a n

3、ot-for-profit research and innovation network motivated to influence the investment industry for the good of savers worldwide and to mobilise capital for a sustainable future.Since its establishment in 2015,almost 90 investment organisations have collaborated to bring this vision to light through de

4、signing fit-for-purpose investment strategies,working towards better organisational effectiveness and strengthening stakeholder legitimacy.Overview and key findings Executive summary 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.TAI Global Pensions Assets Study4Executive summary 2024 Thinking Ah

5、ead Institute.All rights reserved.OverviewThe study covers 22 pension markets in the world(P22).They have pension assets of USD 55,688 bnP22P22 marketsAustralia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,China,Finland,France,Germany,Hong Kong,India,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Malaysia,Mexico,Netherlands,South Africa,South Korea,S

6、pain,Switzerland,UK,USP22 MarketsP195Outside the P22 we estimate there is an additional USD 3-5 tn of pension assets91%of P22 assets are in the seven largest marketsP7A deeper analysis is performed for the P7,with assets ofUSD 50,842 bnP7 marketsAustralia,Canada,Japan,Netherlands,Switzerland,UK,US76

7、%The Gini coefficient of global pension assets reflecting the concentration in few markets5Executive summary 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Overview of P22 MarketsP22USD 55,688 bnTotal P22 assets estimated to year end 202364%The US is the largest market,with a share of 63.9%of P22

8、 assets,followed by Japan and UK with 6.1%and 5.8%respectivelyThe US,Japan and UK represent 75.8%of all pension assets76%69%Ratio of pension assets to GDP of these economies%y/y increase in 2023 P22 assets from USD 50,162 bn the previous year11.0%Return for a60%global equities/40%global bonds refere

9、nce portfolio as of December 2023(in USD)16.6%The P22 assets growth rate of US,Japan and UK were 12.1%,4.4%and 10.3%respectively in 2022(in USD)It is important to note the impact of currency exchange rates when measuring the growth of pension assets in USD as,in many cases,the results vary significa

10、ntly with growth rates in local currency terms6Executive summary 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Overview of P7 MarketsP7US and Australia have higher allocations to equities than the rest of P7 marketsJapan,Netherlands and the UK have higher allocation to bonds58%6.6%DC is dominant

11、 in Australia and the US.Canada,historically only DB,is now showing an increasing allocation towards DCAsset AllocationDB/DC splitThe asset allocation pattern has changed since 2003.Allocation to equities and bonds has decreased while investments in other assets grew during the same period.%of DC as

12、sets represented in total P7 pension assetsGrowth rate of DC assets in the last ten years2.2%Growth rate of DB assets in the last ten years42%36%20%3%EquitiesBondsOtherCashAverage global asset allocation of the seven,largest markets at the end of 20237Executive summary 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.

13、All rights reserved.8MarketTotal Estimated Assets 2023(USD billion)US235,600Japan33,385UK3,206Canada3,105Australia2,448Netherlands1,737Switzerland11,361South Korea1,102Germany5596China6423Mexico381Finland284Malaysia278Brazil4272Italy243South Africa243India241Hong Kong216Chile199Ireland172France155Sp

14、ain43Total55,688Top 22 pension markets by asset size1 Only includes autonomous pension funds.Does not consider insurance companies assets.2 Includes IRAs.3 Does not include the unfunded benefit obligation of corporate pension plans(account receivables).4 Only includes pension assets from closed enti

15、ties.5 Only includes pension assets for company pension schemes.6 Only includes Enterprise Annuity assets.Total P22 Assets are expected to increase from USD 50,162(actual 2022 year-end)to USD 55,688(estimated 2023 year-end).The US is the largest market,with a share of 63.9%of P22 assets,followed by

16、Japan and UK with 6.1%and 5.8%respectively.Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesP22Executive summary 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Global asset owner landscapeAsset owners globally control USD 170 trillionPension funds,sovereign wealth funds and endowments and fou

17、ndations clearly qualify as asset owners,while mutual funds and insurance funds partly qualify.Read more about asset ownersThe Asset Owner of Tomorrow Provides insight into the complexity of being an asset owner today.The AO 100 survey The survey provides analysis of the 100 largest asset owners in

18、the market-the most influential capital on the planet An asset owner has four qualifying characteristics:Works directly for a defined group of beneficiaries/savers/investors as the manager of their assets in a fiduciary capacity under delegated responsibilityWorks with a sponsoring entity(government

19、,government affiliate,company or not-for-profit)Works within explicit law and possesses an implicit societal license to operate because of its societal trust and legitimacyDelivers mission-specific outcomes to beneficiaries and stakeholders in the form of various payments or benefits into the future

20、What is an asset owner?Asset Owners strictly definedAsset Owners loosely defined*959.712.32.160.135.7Pension FundsSovereign Wealth FundsEndowments&FoundationsMutual Funds(inc ETF)Insurance Funds 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Executive summary10Spotlight subjects(1)Macro uncertain

21、ty and systemic riskInterest rates continued to rise in 2023 reaching all-time highs in some countries,while inflation rates have come down since peaking in 2022.Over the 12 months to 31 December 2023,equity markets returned positive performance across all regions other than China.Uncertainty is per

22、sisting in the global economy,heightened by geopolitical tensions and slow economic growth.Demand and supply conditions in the major advanced economies remain out of balance.Interest rates have peaked in most countries and may decline in 2024;inflation has come down from its highs but remains uncert

23、ain.Systemic risk,which is the possibility of a malfunctioning of the system1,is rising and putting emphasis on the need for forward thinking and re-positioning strategy.The principal areas of systemic risk are geopolitical confrontation,climate change,biodiversity loss,inequality and social divisio

24、n and financial system plumbing.The investment industry is scrambling to develop robust models to measure and adapt to systemic risk.Organisational resilience has emerged as a crucial concept for the industry to acquire to become adaptable to a more difficult operating environment2.1 Systemic risk|d

25、eepening our understanding,Thinking Ahead Institute,20232 Systemic risk|adapting our practices,Thinking Ahead Institute,2023 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Executive summary11Spotlight subjects(2)Increasing influence of governments and politics on pension systemThe principal influ

26、ence of governments has been through regulation which has grown as would be expected given the larger size of the asset pools and greater importance of pensions in society.One particular example of increased regulatory reach on pension investment is Australias Your Future,Your Super reforms which ha

27、s encouraged consolidation of pension providers.Government influence on pension schemes is at high level as governments are looking to pension funds to play a role in funding both the greening and the new growth in domestic economies.Measures generally aim at removing regulatory frictions and encour

28、aging a greater culture of longer-term risk-taking.For example,the“Mansion House”reforms in the UK are aiming to attract more cash into domestic investment and divert pension savings into higher risk,higher growth UK companies.Governments have also had considerable influence on pension funds through

29、 the advancement of net zero policies in the financial sector.While pensions investment decisions are ultimately governed by trustee boards,the adoption of net zero commitments has reflected government policies and encouragement.Other examples include other national interest projects including energ

30、y transition finance and social housing.2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Executive summary12Spotlight subjects(3)AI and technologyAll pension fund investment produces its outputs from inputs capital,people,processes and data,supported by enablers governance,culture,teams and technol

31、ogy.The growth of technology as a contributor to these outputs has been steady and has accelerated recently with attention given to generative AI in particular.The operating model of asset owners is increasingly a partnership of HI and AI human intelligence and artificial intelligence to craft and d

32、eliver innovative financial solutions,produce more accurate and timely reporting and foster organisational agility.The integration of AI presents asset owners with challenges and opportunities.There is increasing acceptance that AI is a general-purpose technology that raises productivity,particularl

33、y in research and development a critical asset owner output.It is in the early stages of proving its worth.These AI applications are either happening or about to happen:processing and channelling relevant high-quality information into the investment process,supporting investment oversight with narra

34、tive and performance and risk attribution,knowledge management,and helping the reporting process.It is slower to demonstrate value in implementing advanced investment strategies and supporting the management of operating risks,but this may change.Alongside the considerable hype,certain vigilance is

35、also required1.There are additional moral hazards that attach to using AI and existing technology risks may be amplified.1“AI,humans and the new age of asset management”by Maria Hall,TAI,June 2023 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Executive summary13Spotlight subjects(4)Future of pen

36、sion designPension provision inherently entails long-term perspectives.The current all change environment and additional sources and layers of risk make it particularly important for organisations to adopt a forward-thinking approach.The long-standing transition from defined benefit(DB)to defined co

37、ntribution(DC)pension schemes has been a notable trend in recent decades,driven by factors such as increased life expectancy,changing demographics,and the desire for cost predictability among employers.However,there is a growing sentiment that this shift may be going too far,with concerns about the

38、adequacy of retirement income and the loss of financial security among retirees.The trajectory favouring the DC design is no longer the force it was exemplified by developments in various countries.For example,the Netherlands,known for its robust pension system,has been re-evaluating its pension fra

39、mework to restrike the balance between affordability and security with a hybrid DB and DC design.In the UK,the Royal Mail has introduced a Collective Defined Contribution(CDC)scheme,combining elements of both DB and DC models,aiming to provide more stable pension outcomes for its employees.In the US

40、,IBMs decision to reopen its DB scheme reflects a recognition of the limitations of DC plans in delivering secure and predictable retirement income.These shifts underscore a re-evaluation of pension strategies,emphasizing the importance of finding a middle ground that addresses the shortcomings of b

41、oth DB and DC models.Section 1|Asset sizeTAI Global Pensions Assets Study 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.14Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Asset sizesP221 Only includes autonomous pension funds.Does not consider insurance companies assets.2 Includes IR

42、As.3 Does not include the unfunded benefit obligation of corporate pension plans(account receivables).4 Only includes pension assets from closed entities.5 Only includes pension assets for company pension schemes.6 Only includes Enterprise Annuity assets.Total P22 Assets are expected to increase fro

43、m 50,162(actual 2022 year-end)to 55,688(estimated 2023 year-end).Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesMarketTotal Estimated Assets 2023Assets/GDP ratio(%)(USD billion)Netherlands1,737159.0%Switzerland11,361150.3%Canada3,105146.6%Australia2,448145.0%US235,600132.1%Finland28493.0%UK3,2

44、0696.2%Japan33,38580.0%South Africa24363.7%Malaysia27864.5%South Korea1,10264.5%Hong Kong21656.0%Chile19957.8%Ireland17229.2%Mexico38121.0%Brazil427212.8%Germany559613.5%Italy24311.1%India2416.5%France1555.1%Spain432.7%China64232.4%Total55,68868.7%15Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All right

45、s reserved.Pension asset growth versus market returnsGrowth in all countries not adjusted for the change from using P11 to P22 over the periodFigures for P7 are like-for-like in the 7 countries selectedReference Portfolio used by some pension funds as performance comparator for an averagely sized ri

46、sk appetiteThe Reference Portfolio is rebalanced annuallySource:MSCI ACWI Index;Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond IndexAll calculations in US dollarsTotal pension asset growth has been quite closely matched to global public market equity and bond returns over the last 20 years.The reference p

47、ortfolio returns are a simple proxy for market returns used by some funds in practice funds seek to outperform this return by adopting different mixes of asset to the 60/40 split in the reference portfolio.In particular,funds have large alternative assets exposures.Pension asset growth includes net

48、cash flows contributions in and benefits out.Most calculations suggest that this amount has been quite small relative to the size of assets and market growth.P22P7Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesPeriod to endTotal assets growth in USDTotal assets growth in USDReference portfolio

49、 returnDecember 2023All countriesP7 countries60%Global Equity/40%Global DebtAnnualisedAnnualisedAnnualised1-year11.0%11.1%16.6%5-year6.1%6.1%7.7%10-year4.5%4.5%5.4%20-year6.0%5.8%6.0%16Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Evolution of P7 ranking:USD bn assetsP7200320132018202

50、02023eAustraliaCanadaJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUSUKCommentEvolution of assets under management(USD bn)over the past two decadesSource:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources2003US9,942Japan2,906UK1,261Canada1,068Netherlands614Australia424Switzerland3552013US20,285UK3,129Japan2,895Canada2,559

51、Australia1,746Netherlands1,354Switzerland8092023eUS35,600Japan3,385UK3,206Canada3,105Australia2,448Netherlands1,737Switzerland1,36117Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesAsset allocation and DB/DC splitP742%33%74%94%95%56%1

52、2%58%67%26%6%5%44%88%DBDC42%46%26%30%27%25%31%51%36%34%58%32%46%56%25%14%20%18%14%34%23%14%43%24%3%2%2%4%4%4%2%11%P7USUKSwitzerlandNetherlandsJapanCanadaAustraliaEquityBondsOtherCashAsset allocation 2023DB/DC split 2023*Numbers may not add up to 100%due to rounding*The majority of pension fund asset

53、s in Switzerland are DC and take the form of cash balance plans,whereby the plan sponsor shares the investment risk and the assets are pooled.Pure DC assets have only recently been introduced in Switzerland and,although they have seen strong growth,they are not yet large enough to justify inclusion

54、in this analysis.*In January 2017,the UKs Office for National Statistics stated that the figures previously disclosed for DC entitlements were significantly overestimated.As a result there is a significant decrease in UK DC pension assets when compared to the previous editions of this study.This cha

55、nge has a very limited impact on the P7 DC assets;in the order of a one percent reduction.*Canadian DC assets now include individual accounts.Historical figures have been restated.18Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Concentration of assets in top 300 pension funds18%17%17%

56、17%17%44%41%41%41%41%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%20182019202020212022Top 20 funds as%of Global Pension Assets300 biggest funds as%of Global Pension AssetsSource:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesThe assets of the top 300 pension funds represent 41%of the total global pension assets an

57、d the top 20 pension funds account for 17%of total global pension assets.The annual Pension&Investments/Thinking Ahead Institute world 300 Analysis ranks the worlds largest 300 pension funds by assets.19Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%05101520

58、25%of total assetsFunds rankingRelative size of top pension funds by market0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%1.6%2.0%2.4%020406080100120140%of total assetsFunds ranking0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%02468101214%of total assetsFunds rankingThe top ten US pension funds represent 8.3%of total US assets.Source:Thinking Ahe

59、ad Institute and secondary sourcesUSUKJapanThe top ten Japanese pension funds account for 64.4%of total Japanese assets.This is because the Government Pension Investment Fund that represents 44.7%of Japans pension assets.In the UK,the top ten pension funds represent 15.7%of the total UK pension asse

60、ts.Among them,9.8%are private pension funds and the 5.9%are state-sponsored pension funds.20Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.A decade of growthwith turbulence P22Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources In 2023,global pension assets are estimated to have reac

61、hed USD 55,688 billion,marking an 11%rebound from their 2022 position within a single year.The US remains the largest pension market followed,at significant distance,by the Japan,UK and Canada.Together,these four markets account for over 81%of all pension assets.MarketTotal Assets(USD bn)Total Asset

62、s(USD bn)Growth rate(USD)Year end 2013Year end 2023e10-year CAGRAustralia1,7462,4483.4%Brazil319272-1.6%Canada2,5593,1052.0%Chile1631992.0%China9942315.7%Finland2232842.4%France162155-0.5%Germany4955961.9%Hong Kong1152166.5%India8724110.8%Ireland1261723.2%Italy1602434.3%Japan2,8953,3851.6%Malaysia21

63、12782.8%Mexico1953816.9%Netherlands1,3541,7372.5%South Africa2282430.6%South Korea5091,1028.0%Spain4643-0.7%Switzerland8091,3615.3%UK3,1293,2060.2%US20,28535,6005.8%Total(USD)35,91355,6884.5%21Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Relative weights of pension marketsP22Source:T

64、hinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources 1 There was a methodology change for France and Canada in 2008/2009 and a methodology change for UK in 2012 and 2016.Over the past decade,the weights of the US increased the most relative to other markets in the study.South Korea,China,India,Mexico and S

65、witzerland also saw increases in relative weights.While the weight of Italy and Spain remained unchanged,the rest of the markets experienced decreases.MarketYear end 2013Year end 2023eAustralia4.9%4.4%Brazil0.9%0.5%Canada17.1%5.6%Chile0.5%0.4%China0.3%0.8%Finland0.6%0.5%France10.5%0.3%Germany1.4%1.1

66、%Hong Kong0.3%0.4%India0.2%0.4%Ireland0.4%0.3%Italy0.4%0.4%Japan8.1%6.1%Malaysia0.6%0.5%Mexico0.5%0.7%Netherlands3.8%3.1%South Africa0.6%0.4%South Korea1.4%2.0%Spain0.1%0.1%Switzerland2.3%2.4%UK18.7%5.8%US56.5%63.9%Total(USD)100%100%22Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Grow

67、th rates in USDP22Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources Brazil,Spain and France have had the slowest rates of growth in USD terms since 2013(-1.6%,-0.7%and-0.5%respectively).During the last ten years,the fastest growing pension markets have been China(15.7%),South Korea(8.0%)and Indi

68、a(10.8%),in USD terms.1 There was a methodology change for France and Canada in 2008/2009 and a methodology change for UK in 2012 and 2016.2 1-year growth rate does not capture net contributions in markets3 Existing contribution rates as well as the fact that retirees can cash in all their benefits(

69、i.e.no compulsion to lock in or annuities),can have a significant impact on expected asset growth in Australia.Growth rates to 2023e(USD)Market1-year CAGR25-year CAGR10-year CAGRAustralia34.5%4.0%3.4%Brazil7.3%2.0%-1.6%Canada110.0%4.5%2.0%Chile12.0%0.6%2.0%China2.0%14.5%15.7%Finland9.9%4.8%2.4%Franc

70、e114.1%2.1%-0.5%Germany13.4%4.6%1.9%Hong Kong5.4%5.5%6.5%India8.3%7.4%10.8%Ireland11.5%1.0%3.2%Italy10.8%4.9%4.3%Japan4.4%1.9%1.6%Malaysia3.8%3.3%2.8%Mexico27.4%14.4%6.9%Netherlands12.6%2.5%2.5%South Africa6.2%3.6%0.6%South Korea9.7%7.4%8.0%Spain16.0%2.0%-0.7%Switzerland18.0%8.8%5.3%UK110.3%1.3%0.2%

71、US12.1%7.5%5.8%Average10.4%4.9%3.8%23Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Growth rates in Local CurrencyP22Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources During the past ten years,Chinas pension assets have grown the fastest,followed by those of India and South Korea,w

72、ith growth rates of 17.3%,14.1%,and 10.3%,respectively,when calculated in local currency.Estimated five-year growth rates range from 1.3%pa in the UK to 15.1%pa in China.Growth rates to 2023e(LC)1 There was a methodology change for France and Canada in 2008/2009 and a methodology change for UK in 20

73、12 and 2016.2 1-year growth rate does not capture net contributions in marketsMarket1-year CAGR25-year CAGR10-year CAGRAustralia4.1%4.6%6.8%Brazil-1.5%6.8%6.5%Canada17.6%3.9%4.2%Chile15.4%5.5%7.4%China4.1%15.1%17.3%Finland6.3%5.6%4.7%France110.4%2.9%1.8%Germany9.7%5.4%4.2%Hong Kong5.5%5.5%6.6%India8

74、.8%11.3%14.1%Ireland7.9%1.7%5.5%Italy7.2%5.7%6.6%Japan11.6%7.0%4.6%Malaysia8.3%5.4%6.3%Mexico10.9%11.1%9.8%Netherlands8.9%3.2%4.8%South Africa14.4%8.6%6.4%South Korea12.8%10.6%10.3%Spain12.2%2.8%1.5%Switzerland7.5%5.5%4.7%UK14.5%1.3%2.9%US12.1%7.5%5.8%Average8.6%6.2%6.5%24Asset size 2024 Thinking Ah

75、ead Institute.All rights reserved.Currency ImpactP22Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources On the other hand,the currency that rose the most against the USD was the Mexican Peso(14.9%)in 2023.In 2023,currencies that depreciated the most against the USD were the South African Rand(-7.2

76、%),the Japanese Yen(-6.5%)and the Malaysian Ringgit(-4.1%).Variation in FX rates against USDOver longer periods,there has been a trend of strengthening USD relative to other major currencies.During the last ten years,Only the Swiss Franc appreciated against the USD(0.6%).Market1-year CAGR5-year CAGR

77、10-year CAGRAustralia0.4%-0.6%-3.2%Brazil8.9%-4.5%-7.6%Canada2.2%0.6%-2.1%Chile-2.9%-4.6%-5.0%China-2.1%-0.6%-1.4%Finland3.4%-0.7%-2.2%France3.4%-0.7%-2.2%Germany3.4%-0.7%-2.2%Hong Kong-0.1%0.1%-0.1%India-0.4%-3.5%-2.9%Ireland3.4%-0.7%-2.2%Italy3.4%-0.7%-2.2%Japan-6.5%-4.8%-2.9%Malaysia-4.1%-2.0%-3.

78、3%Mexico14.9%3.0%-2.6%Netherlands3.4%-0.7%-2.2%South Africa-7.2%-4.6%-5.4%South Korea-2.7%-2.9%-2.1%Spain3.4%-0.7%-2.2%Switzerland9.8%3.2%0.6%UK5.6%0.0%-2.6%US0.0%0.0%0.0%25Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Pension assets vs GDP in local currency P22Source:Thinking Ahead I

79、nstitute and secondary sources 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%NetherlandsSwitzerlandCanadaAustraliaUSUKFinlandJapanSouth KoreaMalaysiaSouth AfricaChileHong KongIrelandMexicoGermanyBrazilItalyIndiaFranceSpainChinaPension assets as%of GDP20132023ePension assets as%of GDP1 In percentage points,f

80、igures are rounded.Market20132023eChange1Australia108.3%145.0%36.8%Brazil12.1%12.8%0.7%Canada138.6%146.6%8.1%Chile58.6%57.8%-0.8%China1.0%2.4%1.4%Finland82.3%93.0%10.7%France5.8%5.1%-0.7%Germany13.2%13.4%0.2%Hong Kong41.7%56.0%14.2%India4.7%6.5%1.8%Ireland52.9%29.2%-23.7%Italy7.5%11.1%3.6%Japan55.5%

81、80.0%24.5%Malaysia64.4%64.5%0.1%Mexico14.7%21.0%6.3%Netherlands154.3%159.0%4.7%South Africa56.8%63.7%6.9%South Korea37.1%64.5%27.3%Spain3.4%2.7%-0.7%Switzerland114.5%150.3%35.8%UK112.2%96.2%-16.0%US120.4%132.1%11.7%26Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Pension assets vs GDP

82、in USDP22The Netherlands has the highest ratio of pension assets to GDP(159%)followed by Switzerland(150%),Canada(147%),Australia(145%),the US(132%)and Finland(93%).The total pension assets to GDP ratio reached 68.7%at the end of 2023.During the last ten years,the pension assets to GDP ratio increas

83、ed the most in Australia,Switzerland South Korea and Japan(37,36,27 and 24 percentage points respectively).It declined the most in Ireland and the UK(-24 and-16 percentage points respectively).010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023eUSD

84、 bn.Pension assets as%of GDP Pension Asset Value(USD bn)Gross domestic product,current prices(USD bn)Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources 27Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Pension Market Concentration0%20%40%60%80%100%120%SpainFranceIrelandChileHong Kong

85、IndiaSouth AfricaItalyBrazilMalaysiaFinlandMexicoChinaGermanySouth KoreaSwitzerlandNetherlandsAustraliaCanadaUKJapanUSLorenz curve for pension assets in 2023Equal DistributionActual Distribution0%20%40%60%80%100%120%SpainIndiaChinaHong KongIrelandItalyFranceChileMexicoMalaysiaFinlandSouth AfricaBraz

86、ilGermanySouth KoreaSwitzerlandNetherlandsAustraliaCanadaJapanUKUSLorenz curve for pension assets in 2013Equal DistributionActual DistributionP22Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources The global pension market has remained largely unchanged over the last 10 years.The Gini coefficient

87、was 74.0%in 2013.The Gini coefficient of global pension assets in 2023 was 75.5%.Pension assets are still concentrated in relatively few markets.Gini Coefficient=74%Gini Coefficient=75%28Asset size 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Pension Market Concentration0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Sp

88、ainFranceIrelandChileHong KongIndiaSouth AfricaItalyBrazilMalaysiaFinlandMexicoChinaGermanySouth KoreaSwitzerlandNetherlandsAustraliaCanadaUKJapanUSLorenz curve for pension assets in 2023EqualDistributionActualDistribution0%20%40%60%80%100%120%FinlandChileSouth AfricaHong KongMalaysiaIrelandSwitzerl

89、andNetherlandsSpainAustraliaSouth KoreaMexicoCanadaBrazilItalyFranceUKIndiaJapanGermanyChinaUSLorenz curve for GDP in 2023EqualDistributionActualDistributionP22Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources As a comparison,the Gini coefficient for GDP has increased over the last 10 years,from

90、 55.9%in 2013 to 60.1%in 2023.The lower Gini coefficient for GDP(60.1%)relative to pension market size(75.5%)suggests that the global pension asset pool is more concentrated than what would be suggested by their GDP levels.Gini Coefficient=60%Gini Coefficient=75%This could partially be explained by

91、more developed capital market and a more mature pension system within the larger markets.29Section 2|AssetAllocationTAI Global Pensions Assets Study 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.30Asset Allocation 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Aggregate P7 asset allocation fr

92、om 2003 to 2023 P751%48%43%42%42%36%32%28%30%36%12%19%26%25%20%1%1%3%3%3%0%20%40%60%80%100%20032008201320182023eEquitiesBondsOtherCashSource:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sources Note:Numbers may not add up 100%due to rounding.Other includes private equity,hedge funds,infrastructure,insuran

93、ce contracts,commodities and more.+8%0%-9%Since 2003 equity allocations have shrunk from 50.7%to 41.6%.Allocation to other assets(real estate and other alternatives)has increased from 11.7%in 2003 to an estimated 20.1%at the end of 2023.Allocation to cash instruments has slightly increased from 1.4%

94、to an estimated 2.7%.31Asset Allocation 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.P7 asset allocation in 2023P751%46%31%30%27%26%25%14%34%25%32%46%58%56%24%18%43%34%23%14%14%11%2%2%4%4%2%4%0%20%40%60%80%AustraliaUSCanadaSwitzerlandNetherlandsUKJapanEquitiesBondsOtherCashSource:Thinking Ahead

95、 Institute and secondary sourcesNote:Numbers may not add up 100%due to roundingIn 2023,Australia and the US continued to have above average equity allocations.The Netherlands,UK and Japan have above average exposure to bonds,while Switzerland has the most even allocations across equities,bonds and o

96、ther assets.32Asset Allocation 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.P7 asset allocation over the last ten years(1)P751%49%51%14%16%14%26%22%24%8%13%11%201320182023e41%41%31%34%28%25%24%30%43%2%2%2%201320182023e32%23%25%57%62%56%8%11%14%3%3%4%201320182023e32%30%27%53%53%46%16%17%23%0%0%4

97、%201320182023eNote:Numbers may not add up 100%due to rounding*The source for Canada asset allocation data was changed in the 2023 edition of the study.Historical asset allocation figures might not be comparable.AustraliaCanada*JapanNetherlandsCashOtherBondsEquitiesSource:Thinking Ahead Institute and

98、 secondary sources33Asset Allocation 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.P7 asset allocation over the last ten years(2)P746%32%26%35%55%58%16%12%14%3%2%2%201320182023e44%46%46%22%22%34%31%29%18%2%3%2%201320182023eSource:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesNote:Numbers may not

99、 add up 100%due to rounding*The source for UK asset allocation data was changed in the 2017 edition of the study.Historical asset allocation figures might not be comparable.*The source for US asset allocation data was changed in the 2023 edition of the study.Historical asset allocation figures might

100、 not be comparable.SwitzerlandUnited States*UK*CashOtherBondsEquities29%28%30%34%35%32%29%31%34%8%5%4%201320182023e34Asset Allocation 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Domestic equity exposure P7During the past ten years,the US has had the highest allocation to domestic equities,whil

101、e Canada and Japan have had the lowest allocation.Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesThere is a clear sign of a reduced home bias in equities,as the weight of domestic equities has fallen,on average,from 60.0%in 2003 to 36.3%in 2023.Domestic equity over total equity exposure10%20%3

102、0%40%50%60%70%80%90%1999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023eAustraliaCanadaJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUKUSNote:There was a change in the source of information for the UK starting in 2019.Data sources and reliability vary across different c

103、ountries.The chart includes the best available data at the time.35Asset Allocation 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.Domestic bonds exposure P7Canada,Netherlands,the UK and the US have the highest allocation to domestic bonds.Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesThe a

104、llocation to domestic bonds has remained high,even though it has decreased in the last 20 years.On average,the allocation to domestic bonds as a percentage of total bonds was 81.0%in 2003 and 71.8%in 2023.Domestic bonds over total bond exposure0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%19992000200120022003200

105、42005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023eAustraliaCanadaJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUKUSNote:There was a change in the source of information for the UK starting in 2019.Data sources and reliability vary across different countries.The chart includes the best availa

106、ble data at the time.36Section 3|DB/DCSplitTAI Global Pensions Assets Study 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.37DB/DC split 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.DC on the riseP737%41%47%48%58%63%59%53%52%42%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20032008201320182023eThe growth

107、 rate of DC assets for the last 20 years is 8%pa and 3.7%pa for DB assetsNote:Numbers may not add up 100%due to rounding The majority of pension fund assets in Switzerland are DC and take the form of cash balance plans,whereby the plan sponsor shares the investment risk and the assets are pooled.Pur

108、e DC assets have only recently been introduced in Switzerland and,although they have seen strong growth,they are not yet large enough to justify inclusion in this analysis.Canadian DC assets now include individual accounts.Historical figures have been restated.Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and sec

109、ondary sourcesDuring the last ten years,DC assets have grown by 6.6%pa while DB assets have grown at a slower pace by 2.2%paDCDBDC 21%38DB/DC split 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.DB/DC split in 2023P75.2%5.7%25.5%43.7%67.4%87.9%94.8%94.3%74.5%56.3%32.6%12.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%Japan

110、NetherlandsUKCanadaUnited StatesAustraliaSource:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesNote:Numbers may not add up 100%due to rounding.The majority of pension fund assets in Switzerland are DC and take the form of cash balance plans,whereby the plan sponsor shares the investment risk and the

111、assets are pooled.Pure DC assets have only recently been introduced in Switzerland and,although they have seen strong growth,they are not yet large enough to justify inclusion in this analysis.Canadian DC assets now include individual accounts.Historical figures have been restated.DCDB39DB/DC split

112、2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.DB/DC split over the last ten yearsP7Source:Thinking Ahead Institute and secondary sourcesNote:Numbers may not add up 100%due to rounding The majority of pension fund assets in Switzerland are DC and take the form of cash balance plans,whereby the pl

113、an sponsor shares the investment risk and the assets are pooled.Pure DC assets have only recently been introduced in Switzerland and,although they have seen strong growth,they are not yet large enough to justify inclusion in this analysis.Canadian DC assets now include individual accounts.Historical

114、 figures have been restated.In January 2017,the UKs Office for National Statistics stated that the figures previously disclosed for DC entitlements were significantly overestimated.As a result,we do not have confidence in making comparisons with prior years.DCDBAustraliaCanadaJapanNetherlandsUSUK40%

115、39%44%60%61%56%0%20%40%60%80%100%2013201820233%4%5%97%96%95%0%20%40%60%80%100%2013201820235%6%6%95%94%94%0%20%40%60%80%100%20132018202317%26%83%74%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018202357%60%67%43%40%33%0%20%40%60%80%100%20132018202384%86%88%16%14%12%0%20%40%60%80%100%20132018 202340TAI Global Pensions Assets S

116、tudySection 4|Methodology 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.41Methodology 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.MethodologyAsset estimation In this analysis we seek to provide estimates of pension fund assets(i.e.assets whose official primary purpose is to provide pension

117、 income).This data comprises:Hard data typically as of year-end 2022(except for Australia and Brazil which is from June 2023)collected by WTW and from various secondary sources Estimates as at year-end 2023 based on index movements Before 2006,we focused only on institutional pension fund assets,pri

118、marily 2nd pillar assets(occupational pensions).Since 2006,the analysis has been slightly widened,incorporating DC assets(IRAs)within USs total pension assets.The objective was to better capture retirement assets around the globe and expand the analysis into the 3rd pillar(individual savings)univers

119、e,which is primarily being used for pensions purposes in many markets.Furthermore,this innovation enables us to estimate the global split between DB and DC assets In the 2016 edition of the GPAS Australian assets started to include Self-Managed Super Fund(SMSF)assets.SMSF represent almost a third of

120、 Australias pension assets The source for UK pension data was changed in the 2017 edition of the study,from the Official National Statistics(ONS)to a variety of publicly available sources.This change was prompted by methodological changes announced by the ONS in January 2017 Due to unavailability of

121、 pensions data in China,the study collects information on Enterprise Annuity(Pillar II)assets only.Data relating to Pillar I assets-social pooling(DB)and individual accounts(DC)-is very limited and therefore not included.The National Social Security Fund pension assets are also not included as it is

122、 considered as a reserve fund and separate from the pension system.In the 2021 edition of the GPAS Canadian assets started to include individual accounts,historical figures have been restated.Indices included for estimations and asset returns are the following.MSCI TR gross indices for equities.Bloo

123、mberg TR indices for bonds.For cash:Euribor rates for euro countries,3-month bank accepted bills for Australia,Taxa Selic Diaria for Brazil,Overnight money market financing rate for Canada,Chile TAB Nominal Avg Interbank Rate 90 Days for Chile,BOC HIBOR interbank offered rate for Hong Kong,Financial

124、 Benchmarks India Interbank 3 Month Rate for India,TIBOR fixing rate 3 month for Japan,MYR LIBOR 3-month Constant Maturity for Malaysia,representative interest rate for Mexico,South Africa Johannesburg Interbank Agreed Rate 3 months for South Africa,Korea Federation of Banks KORIBOR 3 Month for Sout

125、h Korea,LIBOR 3 month for UK and Federal Funds market rate(overnight)for US.Hedge Fund index for others.GPR 250,MSCI,FTSE,S&P and IPD property indices for property.Comparison with GDP This section compares total pension fund assets within each market to GDP sourced from the IMF.42Limitations of reli

126、anceTAI Global Pensions Assets Study 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.43 2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.2024 Thinking Ahead Institute.All rights reserved.44Limitations of reliance Thinking Ahead Group 2.0This document has been written by members of the Thinking Ah

127、ead Group 2.0.Their role is to identify and develop new investment thinking and opportunities not naturally covered under mainstream research.They seek to encourage new ways of seeing the investment environment in ways that add value to our clients.The contents of individual documents are therefore

128、more likely to be the opinions of the respective authors rather than representing the formal view of the firm.Limitations of reliance WTWWTW has prepared this material for general information purposes only and it should not be considered a substitute for specific professional advice.In particular,it

129、s contents are not intended by WTW to be construed as the provision of investment,legal,accounting,tax or other professional advice or recommendations of any kind,or to form the basis of any decision to do or to refrain from doing anything.As such,this material should not be relied upon for investme

130、nt or other financial decisions and no such decisions should be taken on the basis of its contents without seeking specific advice.This material is based on information available to WTW at the date of this material and takes no account of subsequent developments after that date.In preparing this mat

131、erialwe have relied upon data supplied to us by third parties.Whilst reasonable care has been taken to gauge the reliability of this data,we provide no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of this data and WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors,officers and employees accept no

132、 responsibility and will not be liable for any errors or misrepresentations in the data made by any third party.This material may not be reproduced or distributed to any other party,whether in whole or in part,without WTWs prior written permission,except as may be required by law.In the absence of o

133、ur express written agreement to the contrary,WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors,officers andemployees accept no responsibility and will not be liable for any consequences howsoever arising from any use of or reliance on this material or the opinions we have expressed.Contact DetailsJessica GWebsite:www.thinkingaheadinstitute.org/enLinkedIn:Thinking Ahead InstituteLimitations of reliance