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1、USVC Valuations and Returns ReportSponsored byQ12025Shareholders May be Expecting Liquidity-How Will You Respond?For many companies,equity and liquidity planning are top of mind.While 80%say they feel pressure to facilitate a liquidity event,33%also say they feel unprepared.1 2025 Morgan Stanley Smi

2、th Barney LLC.Member SIPC.CRC 4407345 04/20251 Morgan Stanley at Work 2025 Liquidity Trends ReportMorgan Stanley at Work services are provided by Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC,member SIPC,and/or its affiliates,all wholly owned subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley.Request a Transaction Readiness Assessme

3、ntHow Can You Lay a Foundation for a Successful Liquidity Event?A good place to start is by exploring the steps you can take to become transaction ready and manage your shareholders expectations in advance of a future IPO or liquidity event.Sponsored by3Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTCon

4、tentsSponsored byPitchBook Data,Inc.Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President of Research and Market IntelligencePaul Condra Global Head of Private Markets ResearchKyle Stanford,CAIA Director of Research,US VentureInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisKyle Stanford,CAIA Director of Research,US Venture Em

5、ily Zheng Senior Research Analyst,Venture Capital DataCollin Anderson Senior Data APublishingReport designed by Drew Sanders and Chloe LadwigPublished on May 12,2025Click here for PitchBooks report methodologies.Click here for PitchBooks private market glossary.Market overview4Dealmaking6A word from

6、 Morgan Stanley at Work9Manufacturing11Healthtech12Investor trends13Liquidity15Returns18Sponsored by4Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT2030405060708090100110Jan 2022Apr 2022Jul 2022Oct 2022Jan 2023Apr 2023Jul 2023Oct 2023Jan 2024Apr 2024Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025Apr 2025VC-Backed IPO IndexMor

7、ningstar PitchBook Unicorn 30 IndexSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of April 18,202571.1%33.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%20152016201720182019202020212022 20232024 2025Share of deal valueShare of deal countSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Tariffs have significantly altered the outlook

8、for the US VC market.The expected liquidity boost in 2025 has likely been pushed back to 2026.This delay will create additional challenges for fundraising and,to some extent,dealmaking and valuations,particularly in later-stage investments.However,the impact will not be uniform across sectors.In rec

9、ent quarters,the VC market has exhibited two distinct realities:one for AI&machine learning(ML)companies and another for other sectors.This may sound facetious,but the data clearly supports this observation.In the first quarter of 2025,71.1%of the total deal value was invested in AI&ML,with the sect

10、or accounting for roughly one-third of all completed deals.While deals involving top companies such as OpenAI,Anthropic,and xAI garner the most attention,median valuations,deal sizes,and annualized valuation growth across AI&ML generally reflect a pronounced premium over other sectors.Tariff tension

11、s have challenged the marketsVC-Backed IPO Index versus Morningstar PitchBook Unicorn 30 Index(rebased to 100)AI&ML scoops up 71.1%of capitalAI&ML VC deal activity as a share of all VC deal activityMarket overviewSponsored by5Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT2.9%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Q1Q2Q

12、3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3201920202021202220232024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,202414.5%17.6%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025The surge in AI&ML funding stands in stark contrast to

13、 the overall liquidity lag in VC.Rising early-stage valuations are pushing against pressured later-stage valuations,with flat and down rounds accounting for over 26%of completed deals in Q1.The disparity between earlier-and later-stage valuations could affect venture returns,resulting in lower growt

14、h ceilings.In early April,our VC-Backed IPO Index declined considerably,reflecting a risk-averse attitude toward tech companies that has led several IPO filers to postpone their listings.Although the one-year IRR for the market has recently turned positive,this uptick more likely indicates the marke

15、ts bottom rather than the start of its rebound.Looking ahead,additional uncertainty created by tariffs could widen the gap between AI&ML and other sectors by further complicating fair market pricing.We expect valuations to be pressured in later stages,in contrast with pre-seed and seed valuations,wh

16、ich have continued to show their relative immunity to market conditions.However,as the many funds raised in 2021 and 2022 draw down their dry powder without the ability to replace it,we expect earlier stages to begin to see a worsening market for raising capital.One-year IRR finally turns positiveVC

17、 rolling one-year IRRHighest percentage of down rounds in a decadeDown rounds as a share of all VC dealsSponsored by6Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT$7.0$8.3$13.8$14.0$40.0$45.1$105.0$114.0$335.0$234.5$665.5$1,025.0$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200Pre-seedSeedABCD+2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20

18、20 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025$0.6$0.8$3.0$3.3$12.0$13.6$26.6$30.0$45.0$50.1$91.6$96.2$0$20$40$60$80$100$120Pre-seedSeedABCD+2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Headline valuations paint

19、a far rosier picture of VC than underlying market dynamics.Median valuations have climbed steadily since 2023,but venture dealmaking remains subdued.The elevated numbers are driven primarily by a small number of outsized dealsalmost all in the AI&ML sectorand companies raising rounds that are relati

20、vely small increases from their prior financings at high valuations.In Q1,the five largest deals were all for AI&ML companies.OpenAI closed a$40 billion round in March,bringing its post-money valuation to an eye-popping$300 billion,nearly double what it was just five months prior.Anthropic raised tw

21、o rounds in Q1,growing from a$42.2 billion pre-money valuation in January to a$61.5 billion post-money valuation by early March.Outside of these narrative-driving deals,26.2%of rounds in Q1 were either flat or down,the highest proportion in over a decade.For the broader venture landscape,growth rema

22、ins much more tempered.Step-up multiples have ticked upward but are still restrained.For example,the median step-up for Series D+startups was just 1.2x in Q1,roughly half the expansion rates seen during 2021s peak.On an annualized basis,median Valuations are steadily risingMedian VC pre-money valuat

23、ion($M)by seriesDeal sizes continue to expandMedian VC deal value($M)by seriesDealmaking15.0%19.4%23.3%22.1%20.0%13.6%11.8%8.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025ABCD+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Concentrated dealmaking activity has led to sm

24、aller investor stakes Median VC share acquired by seriesSponsored by7Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT1.2x1.6x1.7x1.5x1.7x1.3x1.7x1.2x1.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025ABCD+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025$2.4$2.5$4.6$8.5$16.0$10.8$28.

25、9$80.7$25.5$22.1$0$50$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$45020152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 2025SeedABCD+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,202526.0%20.2%26.2%8.9%28.5%24.5%39.8%34.3%9.2%10.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%20152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 2025SeedABCD+Source:P

26、itchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Valuation growth between series is slowly rising Median VC valuation step-up by seriesValue creation exhibits slow but rising pace Median VC velocity of value creation($M)by seriesMuted annualized valuation growth due to previously high valuationsMedian VC RV

27、VC by series valuation growth has improved since 2024 but remains below pre-pandemic levels for most series.The median relative velocity of value creation(RVVC)for Series D+startups was 33.3%in 2019,compared with merely 10.1%in Q1 2025.This slower growth creates a more favorable pricing market for n

28、ew investors as revenue multiples compress and valuation increases decelerate.As 2025 neared,there was a real possibility of increased dealmaking activity.VCs anticipated that decreasing challenges,such as rate cuts,would provide a much-needed boost to venture activity in the latter half of 2025.How

29、ever,current market uncertainties surrounding tariffs add complexity for startups that are already struggling to maintain their high valuations.If these startups rely on imports from countries significantly affected by tariffs,then they may have to make concessions.Since interest rates began to rise

30、 in 2022,many companies have shifted their focus from aggressive growth to cost-cutting measures to extend their cash runways.Rising costs from tariffs are likely to strain margins and valuations further.Additionally,the current tariff exemptions on semiconductor chips may widen the valuation gap be

31、tween AI&ML and other sectors.However,whether these exemptions will become permanent policies or provide merely temporary relief remains to be seen.Sponsored by8Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT0%20%40%60%80%100%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Down FlatUpSource:PitchBook Geogra

32、phy:US As of March 31,20251.21.21.51.41.71.72.01.82.01.72.11.800.51.01.52.02.5Pre-seedSeedABCD+20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Greatest percentage of flat and down rounds in over a decade Share of VC deal count by up,down,and flat roundsOl

33、der startups are waiting longer between rounds Median time(years)since last VC round by seriesMature companies and AI&ML are the only bright spots in an otherwise lackluster market Trailing six-month VC deal trends dashboardSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025SegmentCount%of totalLong-t

34、erm scoreShort-term scoreValue($B)%of totalLong-term scoreShort-term scoreTotal7,330100.0%-2.1-0.9$47.7100.0%-0.9-0.4AI&ML2,44031.1%1.9-0.1$17.529.6%1.40.2Big Data5557.1%-2.1-1.0$4.77.9%-1.0-0.5Fintech79410.1%-0.9-0.6$5.69.4%-0.8-0.4Healthtech90311.5%-1.1-0.9$7.412.6%-0.3-0.4Life sciences6298.0%-2.7

35、-1.1$6.410.9%-1.8-1.5Mobile5517.0%-2.8-1.1$3.45.8%-2.2-0.6SaaS1,97425.2%-2.2-0.8$14.123.8%-1.1-0.1Pre-seed/seed2,21430.3%-2.7-1.1$6.814.2%-0.6-1.0Early-stage VC2,51234.3%-1.6-0.1$14.430.2%-1.2-0.4Late-stage VC2,11628.9%-0.7-0.4$19.741.3%-0.8-0.3Venture growth4776.5%0.90.3$6.814.2%-0.70.6Deal countDe

36、al valueVerticalStageSponsored by9Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTSponsored byA WORD FROM MORGAN STANLEY AT WORKThe evolving landscape of private market equity and liquidityWho is Morgan Stanley at Work?Morgan Stanley at Work provides workplace financial benefits that help build financial

37、 confidence and foster loyaltyhelping companies attract and retain talent.Our end-to-end offering spans equity,retirement,deferred compensation,executive services,and saving and giving solutions.Each solution includes a powerful combination of modern technology,insightful support,and dedicated servi

38、ce,providing your employees with the knowledge and tools to help make the most of their benefits and achieve their life goals.Whether preparing for a liquidity event or an IPO,planning a release of restricted stock units,or expanding your equity plan,Morgan Stanley at Work can help you take charge o

39、f where you are today and where you are going next.How are private company approaches to equity and liquidity evolving?Among private companies,equity remains an important tool for aligning business goals with employee goals and attracting and retaining talent.At the same time,99%of private company d

40、ecision-makers agree that they can expand the value of their stock plans by providing liquidity options for employees,according to our 2025 Liquidity Trends report.Based on what we hear from clients,there are likely several reasons for this.First,many companies continue to stay private longer,creati

41、ng demand for pre-IPO liquidity,particularly among employees and early investors.Second,even though larger and late-stage private companies are increasingly considering an exit strategywith 45%saying an IPO is the goalthere is a consensus that putting off a liquidity event for too long can lead to p

42、otential challenges.For 39%,their next liquidity event is most likely to be a tender offer,1 particularly given the benefits of doing so.These include attracting and retaining talent,managing dilution during or after fundraising,and exercising control over which shareholders take positions on the ca

43、p table.Additionally,Emiley JellieManaging Director,Head of Private Company LiquidityEmiley is a managing director at Morgan Stanley,leading Private Company Liquidity.She is responsible for the expanding suite of liquidity solutions,such as tender offers,to private companies.56%of the companies inte

44、nding to raise capital while still private plan to combine that raise with a liquidity event.For companies that consider conducting a liquidity event,what key factors or trends should they keep in mind?While every company is likely in a different position,it is important to be proactive with your li

45、quidity strategy.You may ask yourself:What are the goals of my liquidity program?Is it employee retention,bringing on a strategic partner,or satisfying excess investor demand?Does my company have expiring equity awards?The biggest considerations for a successful transaction are usually identifying d

46、emand and supply,and understanding how the structure could potentially impact eligible sellers.Key questions to consider:Who is going to buy the shares?Will it be a company buyback or a third-party purchaser?What valuation will the transaction take place at?Who is going to be eligible to sell?What p

47、ercentage of shares should stakeholders be eligible to sell?What are the different tax Erin ConollyExecutive Director,Issuer StrategyErin is an executive director at Morgan Stanley,leading the Issuer Strategy team.She has over 10 years of experience working with late-stage,pre-IPO private companies.

48、In 2021,Erin became the founding member of the Issuer Strategy team and assembled a team with expertise across the stock plan spectrum.1:“Liquidity Trends:Perspectives From Private Company Leaders,”Morgan Stanley at Work,2025.Sponsored by10Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTSponsored byDiscl

49、osures Employee stock plan solutions are offered by E*TRADE Financial Corporate Services,Inc.,Solium Capital LLC,Solium Plan Managers LLC,and Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC(“MSSB”),which are part of Morgan Stanley at Work.Morgan Stanley at Work services and stock plan accounts are provided by wholl

50、y owned subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley.Morgan Stanley at Work stock plan accounts were previously referred to as Shareworks,StockPlan Connect,or E*TRADE stock plan accounts,as applicable.In connection with stock plan solutions offered by Morgan Stanley at Work,securities products and services are of

51、fered by MSSB,Member SIPC.E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley is a registered trademark of MSSB.All entities are separate but affiliated subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley.Content and services available to non-US participants may be different than those available to US participants.The laws,regulations,and ruli

52、ngs addressed by the products,services,and publications offered by Morgan Stanley and its affiliates are subject to various interpretations and frequent change.Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do not warrant these products,services,and publications against different interpretations or subsequent ch

53、anges of laws,regulations,and rulings.Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do not provide legal,accounting,or tax advice.Always consult your own legal,accounting,and tax advisors.2025 Morgan Stanley.All rights reserved.CRC 4407345 4/2025and accounting treatments for each structure?Planning for all thes

54、e considerations can help companies drive better outcomes.Companies should also prepare to address unique shareholder situations that may require attention.Companies choosing to stay private longer,for instance,may encounter issues with expiring awards.Several of our late-stage private company clien

55、ts have shareholders with double-trigger restricted stock units(RSUs)that will not vest until the second triggertypically an IPOoccurs.To resolve this,some companies remove the second vesting trigger so that RSU shares are issued to individuals at each vest date.Other companies remove a portion of t

56、he double-trigger vesting requirement to allow a subset of the RSU award to vest ahead of a large liquidity event.In both cases,we see private companies follow RSU releases with a liquidity program like a tender offer.With these considerations,at least 80%of private companies say they feel some pres

57、sure to facilitate a liquidity event.2 While tender offers remain popular,roughly 33%of private companies feel unprepared to conduct a liquidity event.3 Top concerns are related to valuations,regulatory requirements,event administration,and failing to execute an event as desired.What can companies d

58、o to prepare for a liquidity event?Tender offers,IPOs,and other liquidity events take a lot of time and planning.They also tend to be dynamic events,where deal structure is iterative until closer to the event launch date,when everything comes together.The more companies proactively focus on transact

59、ion readiness to build an infrastructure for equity programs that can support the dynamic nature of these events,the better the chance of avoiding costly delays during the transaction process.Proactively aligning internal and external stakeholders on the strategic business goals,potential timeline,t

60、erms,and legal and tax implications of a future liquidity event can help ensure that they are ready when the opportunity is ripe.The overall success of equity and liquidity programs can depend heavily on how well employees understand the value of receiving equity and how it may impact their financia

61、l future.While over 50%of companies prepare for liquidity events by updating their cap table,engaging external partners with liquidity event experience,and defining their strategic goals for the event,only 31%develop an education program in advance.4 Beyond impacting participation rates,this could a

62、dd complexity during the event if employees and shareholders lack access to the information needed to make informed decisions.Having a strong liquidity strategy can align the incentives of your employees and investors with the companys overall business goals.This is something that Morgan Stanley at

63、Work can help you with,regardless of your companys size or stage.2:“Liquidity Trends:Perspectives From Private Company Leaders,”Morgan Stanley at Work,2025.3:Ibid.4:Ibid.Sponsored by11Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTManufacturing$14.0$14.4$50.0$67.0$56.6$117.8$82.5$239.8$0$50$100$150$200$

64、25020152016201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,20251.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x3.0 x20152016201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of

65、 March 31,2025$3.0$3.0$4.1$12.9$7.4$8.8$6.1$13.1$0$5$10$15$2020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,202522.6%25.5%21.7%20.1%21.8%17.9%13.7%10.8%$0$5$10$15$20$25$3020152016201720182019202020212022 2023 2024

66、 2025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Median venture-growth valuation reaches new heightsMedian manufacturing pre-money valuation($M)by stageMuted valuation growth between roundsMedian manufacturing VC valuation step-up by stageDeal values

67、 are trending upMedian manufacturing VC deal value($M)by stageVC firms are acquiring smaller stakes in most stagesMedian manufacturing VC share acquired by stageSponsored by12Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTHealthtech$12.6$13.4$40.0$56.5$58.2$88.7$200.0$151.0$0$50$100$150$2002015201620172

68、0182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,20251.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x2015201620172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025$3.1$3

69、.0$8.0$6.7$8.0$9.5$8.7$15.0$0$5$10$15$20$252015201620172018201920202021202220232024 2025SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,202524.0%22.9%27.5%25.4%23.0%22.0%14.9%25.4%$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$3520152016201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025SeedEa

70、rly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Median valuations increase across most stagesMedian healthtech VC pre-money valuation($M)by stageHigher step-ups for earlier stagesMedian healthtech VC valuation step-up by stageLater-stage deals are getting larg

71、erMedian healthtech VC deal value($M)by stageVC stakes decline for most stagesMedian healthtech VC share acquired by stageSponsored by13Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTInvestor trends22.6%23.5%33.7%32.5%55.5%62.4%73.7%74.3%80.1%78.8%83.2%85.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%20152016201720182

72、019202020212022202320242025Pre-seedSeedABCD+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,20254.55.16.06.15.15.66.05.15.26.10123456720152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Corporate VC investorPE investorAsset managerGovernment/sovereign wealth fundOther tourist investorSource:PitchBook Geography

73、:US As of March 31,2025Nontraditional investors provide essential funding,especially for later-stage startupsDeals with nontraditional investor participation as a share of all VC deals by seriesStartups receiving nontraditional investment are increasingly olderMedian age(years)of VC companies that r

74、eceived nontraditional investment by investor typeSponsored by14Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTSeedABCD+0.0 x0.5x1.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x3.0 x20152016201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025$12.0$16.0$22.0$27.8$22.8$25.4$28.0$50.9$10.5$15.0$0$

75、10$20$30$40$50$602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Corporate VC investorPE investorAsset managerGovernment/sovereign wealth fundOther tourist investorSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025$17.8$8.0$15.0$16.3$42.0$49.6$108.0$125.6$275.2$449.0$825.7$1,200.0$0$200$400$600

76、$800$1,000$1,2002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Pre-seedSeedABCD+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,202577.4%85.5%30.7%27.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%20152016201720182019 202020212022 2023 2024 2025Share of deal valueShare of deal countSource:PitchBook Geography:US

77、 As of March 31,2025Most series see larger median step-ups with nontraditional investor participationMedian VC valuation step-up with nontraditional investor participation by seriesMedian deal values are rising across nontraditional investor typesMedian VC deal value($M)with nontraditional investor

78、participation by investor typeRising valuations reveal high bar for nontraditional investor participationMedian VC pre-money valuation($M)with nontraditional investor participation by seriesNontraditional investors participate in the largest dealsDeal activity with nontraditional investor participat

79、ion as a share of all VC deal activitySponsored by15Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT4.64.76.46.46.06.101234567820152016201720182019202020212022202320242025AcquisitionBuyoutPublic listingSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,20253.4x4.3x3.8x3.8x2.6x2.4x0 x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x201520162

80、01720182019202020212022202320242025AcquisitionBuyoutPublic listingSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025IPOsThe IPO market remained tepid in Q1 2025,with nearly 40%of the total exit value driven by a single listing from CoreWeave.Despite being a much-anticipated IPO,CoreWeave took a valua

81、tion hit after going public.As of April 22,2025,the AI cloud company had a market cap of$16.4 billion,lower than its$19 billion valuation from its May 2024 Series C.If the stock market turmoil persists,those Series C investors may not be able to break even when the lockup period expires.The median M

82、OIC for public listings fell to 2.4x in Q1 2025,reflecting the lingering impact of inflated valuations.Investors paid high premiums for oversubscribed rounds during the pandemic-era funding boom,but valuation growth has slowed significantly since then,diminishing the magnitude of potential returns.S

83、tartups are waiting longer to go publicMedian time(years)from first VC round to exit by typeMOICs remain depressed in the unfriendly exit environment Median VC multiple on invested capital(MOIC)by exit typeLiquidityHeightened market volatility driven by the ongoing trade war has intensified pricing

84、uncertainty,causing many IPO hopefuls to delay their public debuts yet again.The median time to exit via IPO has extended to 6.1 years,the longest stretch since 2016.Previous optimism for a recovery in IPO activity in 2025 has since dampened.At best,we may see a modest uptick in Q4,assuming greater

85、clarity about the Trump administrations policies and therefore more stability in the public markets that could encourage the return of IPOs.5M&AIn Q1 2025,51.9%of venture-backed acquisitions occurred at the seed stage or earlier,the highest share recorded in the past decade.This trend reflects a gro

86、wing preference for earlier-stage targets that offer greater pricing flexibility and less valuation baggage than more mature startups,and it signals a shift in M&A dynamics as buyers prioritize affordability and long-term upside.5:For further information on the impact of tariffs on potential IPOs,re

87、ad our analyst note Tariffs Dim Expectations of IPO Window.Sponsored by16Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTSecondariesThe VC secondary market showed signs of strength in early 2025,with both average and median discounts to VC rounds flipping into premiums in January and closing the quarter

88、at 6%and 3%,respectively.However,this value 02004006008001,0001,20020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Long-term trend(trailing 12 months)Short-term trend(trailing six months)Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Exit counts are steadily approaching the long-term trendVC exit coun

89、t trendsLong-term trend(trailing 12 months)Short-term trend(trailing six months)$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$14020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Exit value is still lagging the long-term trend VC exit value trendsmay be inflated because secondary

90、 transactions have been disproportionately concentrated among top startups with the highest valuations and primary investor demand.Medians are high only because most startups are not represented in the data,as their sellers are unable to close secondary transactions.Sponsored by17Q1 2025 US VC VALUA

91、TIONS AND RETURNS REPORTSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Exit counts and values are above short-term trends for most verticalsTrailing six-month VC exit trends dashboardWhile secondaries are often pitched as a solution to the liquidity crunch in VC,access remains limited.The estimate

92、d$50 billion in the direct VC secondary market accounts for just 2%of total unicorn value,so its impact on the broader asset class is negligible.6 Furthermore,secondary investors do-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMedian premium/discountAverage premium/discount2022202

93、320242025Source:Zanbato Geography:US As of March 31,20250%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025D+CBASeedPre-seedSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of March 31,2025Total713100.0%-0.80.6$50.6100.0%-1.10.2AI&ML18921.2%3.40.5$12.219.4%1.70.4Fintech9310.4%1.90.4$7.311.

94、6%0.80.6Healthtech819.1%1.50.2$7.311.6%0.60.1Life sciences697.7%0.00.3$5.99.4%0.20.4Mobile788.8%-1.70.3$5.38.5%-1.30.3SaaS30233.9%1.30.7$19.130.4%-0.30.2TMT798.9%-2.5-0.5$5.79.0%-2.4-0.9Acquisition51472.0%-0.80.5$31.963.0%-1.10.1Buyout16923.7%0.50.6$12.624.9%-0.30.2Public listing314.3%-1.4-0.3$6.212

95、.2%-1.20.4SegmentCount%of totalLong-term scoreShort-term scoreValue($B)%of totalLong-term scoreShort-term scoreExit countExit valueVerticalTypeMedian and average secondary pricing has crossed into premiums Median and average secondary premium/discount to last VC roundAcquisitions are occurring earli

96、er in the startup lifecycleShare of VC round count by series where next round is an exit via acquisitionnot always benefit from early access.CoreWeaves secondary shares were trading at$56.50 on Notice.co less than a month before its IPO yet fell below$36 per share in public markets by April 21,2025.

97、7 Secondaries have strong potential for growth,but their impact remains limited for now.6:For further information,read our analyst note Sizing the US VC Secondaries Market.7:“CoreWeave Stock,”Notice.co,n.d.,accessed April 28,2025.Sponsored by18Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORT$0$200$400$60

98、0$800$1,000$1,200$1,4002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Dry powderNet asset value(NAV)Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024The lack of distributions in US VC has become a major concern for LPs,increasing their demand for liquidity.US unicorns now have more than$3 trillion in m

99、arket value.However,very few have pursued exits in recent years,putting potential returns at risk.Portfolio markdowns have contributed to a decline in VC AUM since 2022.Funds from the 2019 vintage and later have generally underperformed compared with many public indexes,with some experiencing signif

100、icant margins of underperformance.Notably,2021 vintage funds show a negative pooled IRR,whereas the S&P 500 has had an annualized return of 12.3%during the same period.In our most recent returns data,the one-year rolling IRR for VC funds finally turned positive after eight consecutive quarters in th

101、e negative range.However,these positive returns may be short-lived.Exit activity in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 lacked significant transactions to generate distributions,and the modest improvement in valuation growth is challenged by tariffs,which will pressure the market from various angles.Our original ou

102、tlookan increase in distribution yieldswas based on the expectation of a more business-friendly environment and increased IPO activity in the first half of the year.Unfortunately,that outlook has dimmed,and we anticipate further declines in returns throughout the year.AUM has slowly declinedVC AUM($

103、B)Returns-$200-$150-$100-$50$0$50$100$150$2002015201620172018201920202021202220232024ContributionsDistributionsNet cash flowSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Cash flows show a lack of distributionsVC cash flows($B)Sponsored by19Q1 2025 US VC VALUATIONS AND RETURNS REPORTOlder fund

104、s from the 2015,2016,and 2017 vintagesapproaching the typical 10-year fund termshow that pooled RVPIs remain higher than DPIs.Our research indicates that the remaining value held within funds at the 10-year mark is often distributed at materially discounted rates.If the market for exits remains chal

105、lenging through 2025 and into 2026,there could be significant value erosion for these funds.Currently,the median pooled IRRs for these vintages are around 17%,but these returns have come primarily from valuation growth rather than actual distributions.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2015201620172018201

106、92020202120222023Top decileMedian IRRBottom decileTop and bottom quartile rangeSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,20240.0 x0.2x0.4x0.6x0.8x1.0 x1.2x1.4x1.6x201520162017201820192020202120222023DPIRVPISource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,20247.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20152016

107、20172018201920202021202220232024YieldAverageSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Recent vintages show poor IRRsVC IRR dispersion by vintage yearRVPI has outpaced DPI since 2015VC DPI versus RVPI by vintage yearDistribution yield well below the historical averageVC 12-month distributi

108、on yield as a share of NAVAdditional researchCOPYRIGHT 2025 by PitchBook Data,Inc.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any meansgraphic,electronic,or mechanical,including photocopying,recording,taping,and information storage and retrieval systemswithout

109、 the express written permission of PitchBook Data,Inc.Contents are based on information from sources believed to be reliable,but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.Nothing herein should be construed as any past,current or future recommendation to buy or sell any security or an offer to s

110、ell,or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.This material does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor may wish to consider and is not to be relied upon as such or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.Private marketsQ1 2025 PitchBo

111、ok-NVCA Venture MonitorDownload the report hereQ1 2025 Analyst Note:Sizing the US VC Secondaries Market Download the report hereQ1 2025 Analyst Note:Ventures Expansion Draws In the Largest BanksDownload the report hereQ2 2025 Analyst Note:Tariffs Dim Expectations of IPO WindowDownload the report hereQ1 2025 Analyst Note:VC-Backed Companies Taking Advantage of Slow M&A MarketDownload the report hereQ1 2025 European Venture ReportDownload the report hereMore research available at