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1、Image:Hotel Chocolat,Southport Avenue Chicago,ILSpring 2025 Retail ReportThe Real Retail Reality:Stores Thrive Amid Uncertainty Featuring Hotel Chocolat,an Interview with Angus Thirlwell,CEO and Co-FounderContentsIntroduction:Anjee SolankiThe Enduring Role of StoresA New Chapter in Retail ExpansionH

2、ow Tariffs Are Reshaping RetailConclusion:Nicole LarsonImage:Hotel Chocolat,Southport Avenue Chicago,ILRetail Report|Spring 20252Introduction Resilience and retail go hand-in-hand as the U.S.sector adapts to the demands of a fast-changing consumer and economic environment.While store closures and ma

3、croeconomic uncertainty have made headlines,the data tells a more balanced story.Physical retail remains central to the shopping experience,supported by steady sales,growing omnichannel integration,and a surge of international and domestic expansion.This report explores how store-based retail contin

4、ues to thrive,how retailers adapt their physical footprints,and how external forces like tariffs and inflation will reshape business strategy and consumer behavior throughout 2025.Anjee SolankiNational Director,Retail Services&Practice Groups|U.S.3Colliers U.S.ResearchGrowth rates for sales through

5、physical storesYear-over-year percentages,US onlyThe Enduring Role of StoresRetail Isnt ShrinkingIts ShiftingSince 2010,the value of in-store sales has declined only once during the disruption of the 2020 pandemic.While e-commerce has often grown faster,physical retail sales have remained remarkably

6、 steady.And yet,the retail landscape continues to change.Elevated construction costs are now above pre-pandemic levels and curbing new retail developments.With new retail supply projected to drop by 45%in 2025,the focus is shifting to optimizing existing spaces.As a result,vacancy rates remain tight

7、,and interest in existing retail properties continues to grow.With new retail supply projected to drop by 45%in 2025,the focus is shifting to optimizing existing spaces.Source:GlobalData analysis2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029Foreca

8、st10.11.54.2Retail Report|Spring 20254Physical stores still account for the vast majority of core retail sales76.2%and the pace of erosion is slowing as online growth stabilizes.Share of retail sales through stores and non-store channelsPercentages,US onlySource:GlobalData analysis92.791.991.190.389

9、.588.687.686.585.384.178.978.277.676.676.276.075.875.675.575.47.38.18.99.710.511.412.413.514.715.921.121.922.523.423.824.024.224.424.524.620102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029ForecastStoresNon-store5Colliers U.S.ResearchWhy Stores Are Doing the Heavy Liftin

10、g for Online SalesRaw sales often miss the bigger picture:retail is increasingly omnichannel.In 2024,physical stores supported over 30%of online retail sales through fulfillment methods like curbside pickup,in-store collection,or direct shipping from storeshighlighting their essential role in todays

11、 retail ecosystem.Notably,our Fall 2021 Retail Report projected this level of store-enabled digital fulfillment by 2025but the industry reached that milestone a full year ahead of schedule.By 2030,we predict omnichannel methods will fulfill 36.3%of online orders.E-commerce has Returned to Pandemic P

12、eak LevelsE-commerce is holding steady at 16.4%of total retail sales by the end of 2024.But unlike before,this surge isnt a threat to brick-and-mortar retailits proof that omnichannel strategies are thriving.Despite a wave of retailer bankruptcies and store closures at the end of 2024 and beginning

13、into 2025,the U.S.retail space market showed remarkable resilience,with a national vacancy rate of just 4.2%in the first quarter of 2025.This stability highlights the ongoing demand for high-quality retail space,even as shopping habits evolve.Brick-and-mortar store locations are far from obsolete;th

14、eyre maturing from simple points of sale into dynamic touchpoints that reflect how consumers want to engagewith brands,products,and each other.Shopping center occupancy hit a decade-high peak,proving that physical stores are crucial to consumer shopping habits.These spaces are no longer just transac

15、tional.They offer consumers experiences and convenience,seamlessly blending with digital channels to create a powerful omnichannel ecosystem.Ecommerce Sales as a%of Total RetailSource:U.S.Census BureauQ4 2014Q2 2015Q4 2015Q2 2016Q4 2016Q2 2017Q4 2017Q2 2018Q4 2018Q2 2019Q4 2019Q2 2020Q4 2020Q2 2021Q

16、4 2021Q2 2022Q4 2022Q2 2023Q4 2023Q2 2024Q4 2024Q4 20146.6%Q2 202016.4%Q4 202416.4%Retail Report|Spring 20256The Takeaway?E-commerce and brick-and-mortar arent competitors,they are collaborators.Retailers that lean into the seamless blend of digital and physical experiences are poised to leadnot jus

17、t in 2025 but well into the future.Omnichannel percentageProportion of online orders that are fulfilled by omnichannel methods(US)Consumer views on statementsPercentage of consumersSource:GlobalData analysis and forecastingSource:GlobalData analysisConsumers are growing increasingly concerned about

18、the rising costs of online order delivery.Their hesitation to pay for return shipping is even more pronouncedan increasingly common requirement.As a result,more shoppers are likely to gravitate toward brick-and-mortar stores and omnichannel options that offer greater flexibility and lower return cos

19、ts.20152019202220247.9%15.8%24.4%30.1%25.738.425.77.62.6StronglyagreeAgreeNeutralDisagreeStrongly disagree39.038.115.55.22.3StronglyagreeAgreeNeutralDisagreeStrongly disagreeOnline delivery charges are getting too highIm reluctant to pay return fees for items bought online7Colliers U.S.ResearchA New

20、 Chapter in Retail ExpansionRetailers Want to GrowBut Space Is Hard to FindMost U.S.retailers plan to expand the amount of physical space they have over the next five years,with relatively few expecting toshrinka clear signal of confidence in the enduring value of brick-and-mortar space.The vast maj

21、ority see a strong future for physical stores,not just as standalone destinations but as vital engines of growth.Retailers increasingly recognize stores role in boosting online sales and profitability,thanks to their ability to support key functions like fulfillment,pickup,and last-mile logistics.Wh

22、ile the retail market appears slightly softer than a year ago,the limited availability of quality available space continues to support strong market fundamentals.Despite increasing closures and softening demand,most vacant locations have back-filled quickly.Reports from tenants and brokerage represe

23、ntatives echo a familiar theme:quality space is hard to come by.Vacancies are filling at the fastest pace in nearly 15 years,reflecting intense competition for prime locations.In 2024,the median time to lease dropped to just 7.5 months,highlighting the urgency among retailers to lock in well-positio

24、ned footprints as soon as they become available.Over the next five years,to what degree do you plan to expand or reduce the amount of physical retail space?US retailers(all),%Source:GlobalData analysis56.328.615.6ExpandRemain thesameContractAgreement with statements about physical storesPercentage o

25、f retailers agreeingSource:GlobalData analysis93.779.473.869.0There is a future forphysical storesPhysical stores are generally profitable than onlineA physicalpresence helpsto boost online salesPhysical stores help toboost online profitabilityRetail Report|Spring 20258The Future of Retail Belongs t

26、o Those Who EvolveWhile a wave of recent retail failures has drawn attention,most cannot be attributed solelyor even primarilyto the rise of online shopping.The core issue has often been a failure to adapt business models or meet evolving customer expectations.Notably,most customer defections have b

27、een to retailers with physical stores rather than to online-only competitors.Retailers who found successful bids within the Party City lease auction:Source:GlobalData analysisStores closedTop 2 rivals customers shifted spend toReasons for failure738High debt levels,a downswing in demand for party an

28、d celebration products,decimation of the important Halloween occasion by Spirit Halloween.695Undermined by rivals on price exacerbated by more price sensitivity among core consumers,poor store estate(location and quality),failure of Dollar Tree to integrate601Weak proposition and offer,uncompetitive

29、 pricing on many products,poor housing market disrupted demand for home goods.333Undermined on price and convenience by rivals,failure to invest in physical stores,problems in pharmacy reimbursement put pressure on margins.51Rationalization of store estate to reduce exposure to weak malls,failure to

30、 invest in the store experience,expansion of premium and luxury brands selling direct.27Pricing has become increasingly uncompetitive,failure to align ranges with core customers needs,lack of investment in stores.790High debt was a major problem for Joann and led to out of stocks as suppliers refuse

31、d to give the chain inventory.This drove customers elsewhere,including online.354Forever 21 was impacted by the rise of Shein,which has lower prices.However,the chains failure to innovate on ranges reduced foot traffic.9Colliers U.S.ResearchAmid Closures,Global Retailers Bet Big on the U.S.Despite h

32、eadlines dominated by mass store closures across the U.S.,the retail landscape tells a more nuanced story of simultaneous contraction and expansion.Between 2018 and 2023,over 18,900 new stores opened nationwide,with international retailers accounting for more than 5,000.Global brands like Aesop,Aldi

33、,Gucci,JD Sports,Mango,Pandora,and Sephora lead the charge,signaling strong confidence in the U.S.consumer base and long-term market potential.This influx of international entrants is capitalizing on the available real estate left behind by legacy closures,positioning themselves for growth while man

34、y domestic playerssuch as Dollar General,Five Below,and Tractor Supplycontinue expanding at scale.The U.S.remains a strategic battleground for global and homegrown retail brands.Historical Store Openings by Largest Domestic&International Brands2018201920202021202220232024International Brands1,7391,8

35、001,9001,9802,1442,1502,3429711,0111,0911,0741,3231,1391,4050511164982128565956484911111837375258617292382397402403388420447225591041Domestic Brands14,53415,37016,27817,26618,13018,81818,8186,4256,7767,2797,5757,8247,9077,9076257459001,0201,1901,3401,3401,9782,0972,1932,2072,3802,4542,4541,6851,7651

36、,8441,9232,0032,0272,027Retail Report|Spring 202510A Sweet Start in the Windy City:Hotel Chocolats Retail U.S.Expansion StoryQ&A Interview with Angus Thirlwell,CEO and co-founder of Hotel ChocolatHotel Chocolat is bringing ethical cacao,immersive storytelling,and community connection to Chicagowith

37、Colliers as its exclusive global real estate partner.In this interview,the brand shares its sustainability journey and innovative U.S.expansion strategy.CACAO CAPTURES THE WINDY CITY Hotel Chocolat intentionally chose Chicago as a strategic location for the opening of its two new stores this year.Th

38、e citys neighborhood-based layout offered a representative test of how the brand can connect with diverse communities across America.“If we can make it work in Chicago,then we can make it work in most cities in America,”Thirlwell explained.“Whereas if we start in New York,its more of a one-off prope

39、rty.”An approach that allows for a“geo-agnostic”expansion that doesnt follow typical retail geography patterns.The flagship outposts in Lakeview and Lincoln Park already attract diverse demographicsfamilies,singles,and professionals eager to sample the brands flavor portfolio.“We focus on bringing c

40、onsistent energy,foot traffic,and community engagement to the chosen neighborhoods.This footfall can benefit neighboring brands by increasing overall exposure and activity,”Thirlwell shares.THE PHYSICAL STORE LIES AT THE CENTERHotel Chocolats digital rootspioneering e-tail and subscriptions in the U

41、Kinform its omnichannel strategy,but the physical store lies at its center.Thirlwell likens it to the composition of a symphony,where each brand access point creates an emotional connection.“The most powerful instrument in the orchestra is the physical space,”Thirlwell asserted,emphasizing the intim

42、acy of in-person interactions.“The closer,the better,as nothing compares to standing within the same four walls and tasting or sipping chocolate together.”FOSTERING COMMUNITY WITH CACAOHotel Chocolat functions as a modern“drinking chocolate social house.”Drawing from history,Thirlwell notes,“There w

43、ere 700 drinking chocolate houses in London around the time of Samuel Pepys,the diarist.This pre-dated pubs and coffee housesplaces where people shared ideas.”The brand adapts this philosophy to urban life,fostering community through tastings,exclusive drops,and a convivial atmosphere.Guests are inv

44、ited to explore offerings like cacao-nib soft serve,velvety hot chocolate,and a drizzle fountain.“The stimulation of cacao,through its natural theobromine,makes you feel imaginative and powerful,”explains Thirlwell,highlighting the transformative experience that defines the brands vision.FARM-TO-STO

45、RE PHILOSOPHYWhat truly sets Hotel Chocolat apart is its commitment to understanding and improving the chocolate-making process from the ground up.The team has spent over a decade(and counting)running a cacao farm in St.Lucia,gaining firsthand experience with every stage of the cacao lifecycle.They

46、learned that more than 60%of a chocolate bars flavor is locked in at the farm level through decisions like fermentation,drying,and varietal selection.This farm-to-store philosophy informs every aspect of the retail experience,from the store design incorporating agricultural elements to the product d

47、evelopment process.A BRAND STORY WORTH WATCHINGA forthcoming documentary series offers a behind-the-scenes look at Hotel Chocolats entry into the U.S.market and the challenges of opening the Lakeview store in Chicago.“We had a documentary crew filming the whole jeopardy about getting the Southport l

48、ocation open,”Thirlwell revealed.The six-episode series is set to air in the UK,with U.S.distribution currently in discussion.With two thriving Chicago stores,Hotel Chocolat is proving that brick-and-mortar retail remains the cornerstone of building emotional connections and reintroducing cacao as a

49、 ritualistic experience rather than merely a sweet snack.Click here to find your perfect Chocolate Love MatchAngus Flavor Prof leExclusively Nutty11Colliers U.S.ResearchHow Tariffs Are Reshaping RetailTariffs,Inflation,and the Consumer ResponseCOSTS FOR RETAILERS WILL INCREASENo retailer will be abl

50、e to completely avoid the impact of tariffs.The cost of doing business for the sector will increase.POLARIZATION WILL INCREASEWith compressed volumes and rising operating pressures,retail will become more polarized into winners and losers.MARGINS WILL BE COMPRESSEDDespite cost cuts and higher prices

51、,retailers may still need to absorb some margin impact.PRICES FOR CONSUMERS WILL INCREASERetailers will be forced to pass on at least some of the cost increases to consumers;virtually no retailer will be able to absorb all costs.RETAILERS MAY NEED TO ADAPT RANGESAs consumer behavior changes,retailer

52、s will need to optimize their ranges and range structures.RETAIL VOLUMES WILL DECLINEHousehold finances will not be able to absorb further price increases and retail volumes will decline to help balance budgets.SCALE WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANTRetailers with scale will have more bargaining power to n

53、egotiate with suppliers and will have more levers to pull to find cost savings.INCREMENTAL REVENUE STREAMS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANTRetailers will look to bolster revenue streams from outside of retail to help support both the top and bottom lines.SHOPPING AROUND WILL INCREASEConsumers will seek va

54、lue for money and low prices,which means shopping around will increase intensifying competition.Retail Report|Spring 202512Estimates potential price increases by retail category to cover the cost of tariffsPercentage changeImmediate Consumer Price ImplicationsPrices across several sectors could rise

55、 if proposed tariff rates are implemented,depending on sourcing strategies and supply chain adjustments Food is less exposed as retailers will likely lean more heavily into domestic production.However,the reliance on imports for some staples will cause prices to increase.17.215.314.514.313.812.811.6

56、10.19.3FootwearToys and gamesClothingHomeimprovementSportinggoodsBeautyHomegoodsFurnitureFoodNotes:Price increases are estimates only They show the approximate adjustment that may come because of current tariff rates The increases are expressed over the course of 24 months or so;the phasing of incre

57、ases will vary by category Price changes for sub-categories within categories may vary significantly All numbers are based off a mid-range scenario Numbers do not include all secondary effects that may build over a longer periodSource:GlobalData analysis13Colliers U.S.ResearchTariffs Threaten to Pro

58、long Inflationary PressuresDue to the lingering secondary effects of tariffs,inflation will likely remain persistent in the years ahead;this would be especially challenging for households strained by several years of elevated prices.Many are still struggling with the impact of recent inflation,and h

59、ouseholds facing sustained cost pressures may find it challenging to offset these increases in the near term.Consumer Sensitivity to Price Increases Across SectorsU.S.consumer sentiment has declined significantly in 2025,reflecting growing concerns over inflation,tariffs,and economic uncertainty.The

60、 University of Michigans Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April,down from 57.0 in March and 77.2 a year ago,marking a 34%year-over-year decline.Price increases would elicit a strong response from consumers at least in terms of what they say they would do.Across sectors,most consumers indi

61、cate theyd take some form of action,with the sharpest sensitivity in food,where price awareness is exceptionally high.Comparison shopping and diversified purchases would increase which means a more intense competitive environment.Consumers would also reduce the amount they buy,especially in discreti

62、onary categories.Projected retail inflation ratesPercentage change on prior yearNew inflation rate(based on tariff announcement)Previous inflation rate(prior to tariffs)2.11.81.71.92.12.37.56.44.53.53.12.8202720282029203020252026Source:GlobalData analysisIf prices were to increase,how would you most

63、 likely respond?PercentagesResponseApparelHomeBeautyFoodI would wait for sales or discounts58.960.434.112.3I would prioritize essentials over trend items56.734.744.360.4I would shop around more53.445.648.964.3I would buy fewer items overall47.455.040.110.5I would switch to cheaper brands or retailer

64、s37.531.629.470.3I wouldnt change my shopping habits31.529.236.714.5Consumers could mention more than one factor,so numbers sum to more than 100%Source:GlobalData analysisRetail Report|Spring 202514Looking at apparel more deeply,almost 62%of consumers were concerned that policies might make apparel

65、more expensive even before the principal tariff announcements.The concern is slightly higher among younger shoppers,reflecting their interest and high spending in the category,and,for some in younger cohorts,their more limited incomes.Im concerned government policies around tariffs and trade will ma

66、ke apparel more expensivePercentage agreement/disagreement28.733.025.48.85.1Strongly agreeAgreeNeutralDisagreeStrongly disagreeSource:GlobalData analysisAgreement(strongly agree+agree)by gender and age groupPercentagesSource:GlobalData analysis58.863.466.466.758.058.862.8MaleFemaleGen ZMillennialsGe

67、n XBoomersSilent15Colliers U.S.ResearchImage:Hotel Chocolat,Southport Avenue Chicago,ILRetail Report|Spring 202516Nicole LarsonManager,National Retail Research|U.S.Conclusion Despite ongoing challenges,physical retail continues to demonstrate its resilience.Stores remain central to the equationpower

68、ing digital fulfillment,fostering brand engagement,and anchoring omnichannel strategies.As the market navigates tighter supply,inflationary pressures,and shifting consumer expectations,retailers who embrace flexibility through strategic expansion,pricing agility,or channel integrationwill be best po

69、sitioned to lead.Todays retail story isnt about decline but transformation.17Colliers U.S.ResearchThis document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only.Colliers International makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or i

70、mplied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information.Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warr

71、anties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s).2025.All rights Solanki National Director,Retail Services&Practice Groups Colliers|U.S.+1 415 288 7871 Nicole Larson Manager,National Retail Research Colliers|U.S.+1 954 652 4602