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1、An Art Basel&UBS ReportPrepared by Dr Clare McAndrew Founder of Arts EconomicsContents3Auction SalesKey Findings 94 3.1|Auction Sales in 2016 96 3.2|Market Share and Global Distribution of Sales 99 3.3|Sales Rates and Estimates 100 3.4|A Note on the Chinese Art Market 103 3.5|Fine Art Auction Prices

2、 112 3.6|Price Segmentation and Growth 1155Art SectorsKey Findings 146 5.1|The Fine Art Market 148 5.2|Post War and Contemporary Art 154 5.3|A Note on Living Artists 168 5.4|Modern Art 178 5.5|Impressionist and Post-Impressionist 190 5.6|Old Masters and European Old Masters 2017Economic ImpactKey Fi

3、ndings 260 7.1|Employment in the Art Market in 2016 262 7.2|Dealer Sector Employment 263 7.3|Auction Sector Employment 266 7.4|Ancillary Economic Impact 268 7.5|Conclusions and Outlook 272 Appendix A Note on Data Sources 2824Online SalesKey Findings 126 4.1|The Online Market 128 4.2|E-Commerce in th

4、e Auction Sector 128 4.3|Online Platforms and Consolidators 131 4.4|Online Sales in the Dealer Sector 132 4.5|The Wider Online Sector 136 4.6|Website Traffic and Social Media 1386Global Wealth and the Art MarketKey Findings 218 6.1|The Economic Context in 2016 220 6.2|World Wealth 228 6.3|Wealth Dis

5、tribution 231 6.4|Wealth Inequality and the Art Market 236 6.5|Global Millionaires 240 6.6|High Net Worth Wealth 247 6.7|A Survey of US HNWIs 251 6.8|Top 200 Collectors 256Tables and Figures 4 Acknowledgements 10 Directors Foreword 12 Statement by UBS 13Key Findings 141The Global Art Market in 2016K

6、ey Findings 24 1.1|Overview of Global Sales 26 1.2|Global Market Share 32 1.3|Regional Sales 342Dealer Sales and ExhibitionsKey Findings 42 2.1|Dealer Sales 44 2.2|Market Prices and Segmentation 50 2.3|Sales Channels 52 2.4|Dealer Margins 54 2.5|Supply and Inventories 58 2.6|Art Buyers 66 2.7|Local

7、versus International Buyers 70 2.8|Primary versus Secondary Market Dealers 74 2.9|Exhibitions 80 2.10|Outlook 90 4Tables and Figures1The Global Art Market in 2016Table 1a|The Global Art Market:Value and Volume of Transactions 27Figure 1a|Global Art Sales by Value 28 Figure 1b|Growth in Sales on the

8、Global Art and Antiques Market 29 Figure 1c|Global Art Market Share by Value in 2016 32 Figure 1d|Global Market Share of the US,UK and China 2006 to 2016 33 Figure 1e|Sales in Major Markets 2006 to 2016 35 Figure 1f|EU Art Market Share by Value in 2016 372Dealer Sales and ExhibitionsTable 2a|Sources

9、 of Supply for Dealers in 2016 59 Table 2b|Average Time Taken to Sell Works from Inventory in 2016(by Sector)61 Table 2c|Share of Dealers Local versus International Buyers in 2016 71 Table 2d|Top Art Fair Cities in 2016(Number of Major Fairs)86 Table 2e|Top 20 Most Exhibited Artists(Number of Solo S

10、hows)87 Table 2f|Top Three Challenges in Next Five Years 91Figure 2a|Change in Turnover by Dealer Turnover Segment 201516 44 Figure 2b|Share of Dealers by Total Sales in 2016 45 Figure 2c|Dealers Views on Sales in 2017 46 Figure 2d|Median Prices by Sector in 2016 50 Figure 2e|Share of Individual Sal

11、es and Total Sales Values by Dealers in 2016 by Price Bracket 51 Figure 2f|Share of Dealer Sales by Channel in 2016 52 Figure 2g|Estimated Total Art Fair Sales 2010 to 2016 53 Figure 2h|Debt Ratios in the Dealer Sector in 2016 55 Figure 2i|Dealers Gross Profit Ratios in 2016 56 Figure 2j|Dealers Net

12、 Profit Ratios in 2016 57 3Auction SalesTable 3a|Share of Fine Art Auction Sales Versus Presale Estimates 103 Table 3b|Annual Growth,Total Growth and Share of Sales by Value 118 Table 3c|Annual Growth,Total Growth and Share of Sales by Volume 119Figure 3a|Global Auction Market 2006 to 2016 97 Figure

13、 3b|Auction Market Global Share by Value in 2016 99 Figure 3c|Fine Art Auction Market Global Share by Volume in 2016 100 Figure 3d|Buy-In Rates at Fine Art Auctions:2015 versus 2016 102 Figure 3e|Auction Sales in the Chinese Auction Market 20062016 104 Figure 3f|Lots Offered Versus Sold and Buy-in R

14、ates in the Chinese Auction Market 20042016 107 Figure 3g|Averages and Median Fine Art Auction Prices in 2016 113 Figure 3h|Share of Lots Sold and Total Value at Global Fine Art Auctions in 2016 by Price Bracket 114 Figure 3i|Growth of Sales by Value in Price Segments 117 Figure 3j|Market Share of t

15、he Fine Art Auction Market by Price Segment in 2016 121 Figure 3k|Share of Number of Artists by Price Segment in 2016 122Figure 2k|Average Time Taken to Sell Works from Dealers Inventory in 2016 61 Figure 2l|Average Payment Cycle for All Dealers in 2016 62 Figure 2m|Average Number of Buyers by Deale

16、rs Sales Turnover in 2016 67 Figure 2n|Share of Dealers Buyers by Purchase History and Turnover Level 68 Figure 2o|Market Share of Sales by Buyer Group in 2016 69 Figure 2p|Most Important Nationalities of Buyers for Dealers in 2016 72 Figure 2q|Number of Solo and Group Exhibitions Worldwide 2006 to

17、2016 81 Figure 2r|Geographical Distribution of Exhibitions in 2016 82 Figure 2s|Share of Exhibitions by Institution Type 2016 83 Figure 2t|Number of Major Fairs and Number of Exhibiting Galleries 85 Figure 2u|Share of Exhibitions of Artists in their Home Market 8945 Tables and Figures645Online Sales

18、Art SectorsTable 4a|Website Metrics:Selected Companies in 2016 140Figure 4a|Share of Online Sales in Sample of US Auction Houses in 2016 130 Figure 4b|Volume of Sales of Online Companies by Price Level 137Table 5a|Market Share by Value of the Fine Art Auction Market:20002016 149 Table 5b|Top 20 Sell

19、ing Post War and Contemporary Artists in 2016 163 Table 5c|Top 20 Exhibited Post War and Contemporary Artists in 2016 163 Table 5d|Top Prices in the Post War and Contemporary Sector in 2016 164 Table 5e|Top 20 Selling Living Artists in 2016 174 Table 5f|Top 20 Exhibited Living Artists in 2016 174 Ta

20、ble 5g|Top Prices for Living Artists in 2016 175 Table 5h|Top Selling Artists in the Modern Sector in 2016 187 Table 5i|Top 20 Exhibited Modern Artists in 2016 187 Table 5j|Top Prices in the Modern Sector in 2016 188 Table 5k|Top 20 Selling Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Artists in 2016 198 Ta

21、ble 5l|Top 20 Exhibited Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Artists in 2016 198 Table 5m|Top Prices in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Sector in 2016 199 Table 5n|Global Market Share:Old Master Paintings in 2016 205 Table 5o|Top 20 Selling Old Master Artists in 2016 213 Table 5p|Top Prices

22、 in the Old Master Sector in 2016 214Figure 5a|Market Share by Sector of the Fine Art Auction Market in 2016 150 Figure 5b|Global Share of Exhibitions by Sector in 2016 151 Figure 5c|The Post War and Contemporary Art Sector:2006 to 2016 155 Figure 5d|Market Share of the Post War and Contemporary Sec

23、tor in 2016 156 Figure 5e|Global Share of Exhibitions in the Post War and Contemporary Sector in 2016 157 Figure 5f|Sales in the Post War and Contemporary Sector 20062016:Key Markets 159 Figure 5g|Sales by Price Bracket in the Post War and Contemporary Sector in 2016 160 Figure 5h|Share of Artists b

24、y Price Segment in the Post War and Contemporary|Market in 2016 161 Figure 5i|Share of Sales for Living versus Deceased Post War and Contemporary|Artists in 2016 169 Figure 5j|Sales of Living Artists by Price Bracket in 2016 171 Figure 5k|Shares of Artists by Price Segment in the Living Artists Sect

25、or in 2016 173 Figure 5l|The Modern Art Sector:20062016 179 Figure 5m|Market Share of the Modern Sector in 2016 180 Figure 5n|Global Share of Exhibitions in the Modern Sector in 2016 181 Figure 5o|Sales in the Modern Sector 20062016:Key Markets 182 Figure 5p|Sales in the Modern Sector by Price Brack

26、et in 2016 184 Figure 5q|Share of Artists by Price Segment in the Modern Sector in 2016 185 Figure 5r|Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Auction Sales 20062016 191 Figure 5s|Market Share of the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Sector in 2016 192 Figure 5t|Global Share of Exhibitions in the Imp

27、ressionist and Modern Sector in 2016 193 Figure 5u|Sales in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Sector 20062016:Key Markets 194 Figure 5v|Sales by Price Bracket in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist 2016 195 Figure 5w|Share of Artists by Price Segment in the Impressionist and Post-Impress

28、ionist|Sector in 2016 196 Figure 5x|Old Master Painting Sales 20062016 202 Figure 5y|Sales in the Old Master Sector 20062016:Key Markets 207 Figure 5z|Sales in the Old Master Sector by Price Bracket in 2015 208 Figure 5aa|Share of Artists by Price Segment in the Old Master Sector in 2016 21067 Table

29、s and Figures867Global Wealth and the Art MarketEconomic ImpactTable 6a|Growth in GDP per annum,constant prices 223 Table 6b|GDP per Capita Selected Countries 225 Table 6c|Share of National Population by Wealth Level in 2016 232 Table 6d|Share of National Wealth in 2016 233 Table 6e|Billionaire Weal

30、th by Region 244 Table 6f|High Net Worth Wealth(US$Trillion)250 Table 6g|Ranking of Considerations when Purchasing Art 255 Table 6h|Location of Top 200 Collectors 257Figure 6a|Growth in Global Wealth and Wealth per Adult($)229 Figure 6b|Global Share of World Wealth(Share of US Dollar Value in%)230 F

31、igure 6c|The Distribution of World Wealth in 2016 231 Figure 6d|Share of Global Population of the Wealthiest 1%Worldwide in 2016 234 Figure 6e|Number and Wealth of Dollar Millionaires 20102016 241 Figure 6f|Global Share of Dollar Millionaires in 2016 242 Figure 6g|Global Share of Millionaires with W

32、ealth in Excess of$50 million in 2016 245 Figure 6h|Global Share of Dollar Billionaires in 2016 246 Figure 6i|The Total Global Population of HNWIs 248 Figure 6j|Share of Investments of Passion Purchased in the Last Two Years 252 Figure 6k|Channels for Purchasing Art and Collectibles 253 Figure 6l|Sh

33、are of Collection Financed Through Credit 254Table 7a|Ancillary Expenditure and Employment Generated in 2016 269Figure 7a|Numbers Employed in the Dealer Sector in 2016 263 Figure 7b|Gender and Age Profile in the Dealer Sector in 2016 265 Figure 7c|Gender and Age Profile in the Second Tier Auction Se

34、ctor in 2016 266 Figure 7d|Spending by the Global Art Trade on Selected Ancillary Services in 2016 269 Figure 7e|Growth in Employment by Industry in the US 273 Figure 7f|Growth in Employment by Industry in the UK 27489 Tables and Figures11 AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsThe Art Market|2017 presents

35、 the results of a comprehensive and macro-level analysis of the global art and antiques market in 2016.This study looks at the key trends in the global art and antiques trade,reporting on how different regions,sectors and value segments of the market have performed.The information presented in this

36、study is based on data gathered and analyzed directly by Arts Economics()from dealers,auction houses,art and antique collectors,art and financial databases,industry experts and others involved in the art trade.(The Appendix outlines some of the key data sources used in the report.)Chapter 1 provides

37、 an overview of the global market,looking at the value,volume and regional distribution of sales of art and antiques in 2016 and the decade leading to it.It also reviews the performance of some of the major national and regional art markets in this period.Chapter 2 focuses on dealers and galleries,r

38、eporting on sales and other key indicators in different value segments and sectors of the market,and drilling down into important areas such as profitability,supply,inventories,financing Chapter 7 discusses the significant economic contribution the art market makes to the economies in which it opera

39、tes,through adding employment and revenues directly and through a range of ancillary industries supported by the art trade.It concludes the report by reviewing some of the key issues that may shape the market going forward in 2017.An important part of the research each year involves a global survey

40、of art and antique dealers.I would like to say a special thanks to Erika Bochereau of CINOA(Confdration Internationale des Ngociants en Oeuvres dArt)for her continued support of this research,along with the presidents of the dealer associations around the world.Thanks also to Joe Collinson and Melis

41、sa Netecke for helping to distribute the survey.My sincerest thanks to all of the individual dealers who took the time to support this research by completing the surveys.I am also extremely grateful to all those dealers who shared their valuable insights on the art market through interviews and disc

42、ussions during the year.Many thanks also to all of the top and second-tier auction houses that also took part in the auction survey.Thanks especially to Susan Miller (Christies),Jack Shaw(Sothebys)and Lisa King(Phillips).Thanks also to the online companies for their support of the survey and in prov

43、iding other information on the sector,and to UBS for their help and cooperation with the survey of US HNWIs.and buyers.It presents findings on the primary market and the secondary resale market,distinguishing them in terms of dealer turnover,artist representation and other features.It also provides

44、an overview of exhibitions by region,sector and top ranking artists.Chapter 3 reports on the auction sector,looking again at sales by region and value segment.The chapter focuses on the varying performance of the lower,middle and upper value segments of the market in the period from 2006 to 2016.Cha

45、pter 4 addresses the small but growing online art market,reporting on its size and key structural features.Chapter 5 presents a comprehensive analysis of the principal fine art sectors,using auction and exhibition data to describe their performance in terms of sales,regional market share,prices,segm

46、entation and artists.Chapter 6 provides a contextual overview of world wealth,showing how changes in the size and distribution of wealth within and between regions are shaping trends in the art market.This chapter focuses on high net worth wealth and presents the results of a survey of US high net w

47、orth individuals carried out for the report by UBS and Arts Economics.The primary art auction data supplier for this report was Collectrium,and I had invaluable assistance particularly from Amber Sherman whose dedicated and informed support was very much appreciated in assembling this new and much i

48、mproved set of auction data.Auction data on China is supplied by AMMA(Art Market Monitor of Artron)and my sincerest thanks for their continued support of this research on the Chinese auction market and to Chong Guan for his help with the data.Sincerest thanks also to the Shanghai Culture and Researc

49、h Institute for their help researching the Chinese art market.I would also like to extend a special thank you to Marek Claassen and Fergus Bremner at A for their help and encouragement in using their extensive and informative database on exhibitions,which has helped to deepen the analysis presented

50、in the report.Finally,I am very grateful to Noah Horowitz for his time and encouragement in helping to coordinate the research.Dr Clare McAndrew Arts Economics10Statement by UBS13 Directors Foreword&Statement Directors Foreword12Compared with other industries,the art market is famously difficult to

51、quantify.The majority of sales are conducted privately,and discretion has traditionally been one of its underpinnings.But as the industry grows larger and more globalized,it becomes ever-more important for everyone involved to add solid data into our thinking,combining it with instinct and anecdotes

52、 in forming our views on the artworld and its potential futures.Thus,Art Basel is proud to present this first research project with Dr Clare McAndrew,Founder of Arts Economics.Produced in collaboration with UBS,our long-term global Lead Partner,this extensive report combines survey research among pr

53、emier international galleries with data drawn from a wide array of other sources.We believe that The Art Market|2017 paints as clear a picture as possible of the markets status quo,detailing its growing complexity,its broader trends and the challenges faced within many sectors.As longstanding patron

54、s of the arts,we are pleased to collaborate with Art Basel to publish the definitive research on the global art market.Alongside our own art services offerings,institutional patronage,and well-known art collection,the work of Dr Clare McAndrew corresponds closely with our ongoing commitment to resea

55、rch and analysis of financial markets and economic data for our clients.The rapid growth in the art market over the past decade,combined with the persistence of record low interest rates in much of the developed world,has brought new attention to the economics of the market and its future developmen

56、t.Yet I wonder if this view distorts the true value of what art can give us.Even though artworks may sell for record sums,to consider art in a context of the returns it provides,we need to look at how it compares with other asset classes.Certain works may indeed have the potential for substantial va

57、lue appreciation,In preparing the new Art Basel and UBS report,Clare has built upon her long experience and renowned methodology to analyze this complex market,while also delving even more deeply into certain key aspects of the artworlds commercial ecosystem.We hope that by sharing this granular per

58、spective with the artworld,we may help its players to shape their strategies for growth in a volatile time.And we look forward to the engaged discussions this report will surely catalyze.Finally,I would like to thank Clare for joining us in this ground-breaking endeavor,UBS for partnering with us on

59、 the report and enriching it with their own significant expertise,the gallerists and market professionals whose input helped shape this report,and our Director Americas,Noah Horowitz,whose PhD on the market made him an invaluable colleague for Clare in creating her premiere project with Art Basel.Ma

60、rc Spiegler Director,Art Baselbut by its nature,art will not deliver some of the staples that I believe are crucial to a long-term investment proposition:dividends,coupons,and risk premia,and the opportunity to diversify,rebalance,and liquidate.These features are,in my view,more readily found in por

61、tfolios of more traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds that can reliably provide income,protect purchasing power over the long term,and help build a financial legacy.What art can give us is different,however,and in some ways is worth more.Art offers pleasure,passion,the thrill of a ne

62、w perspective,and ultimately the chance to leave a legacy that goes beyond money.Mark Haefele Global Chief Investment Officer UBS Wealth Management51%81%1415 Key FindingsKey FindingsThe global art market achieved total sales of$56.6 billion in 2016.GlobalDealers 3%5%Total sales of art and antiques i

63、n the global art market were down 11%on 2015.The top three markets of the US,UK and China once again cemented their dominant position in the global art market in 2016,accounting for 81%of total sales by value.The volume of sales (number of transactions)declined by 5%year-on-year to reach 36.1 millio

64、n.The value of sales at public auctions declined 26%year-on-year,while there was a slight increase in sales in the dealer sector(of 3%).These dynamics increased the share of the dealer market to 57%.Dealer sales rose just under 3%on aggregate to reach$32.5 billion,although performance was mixed betw

65、een sectors and segments.In 2016,despite a substantial decline in the market,the US was again ranked in first place for global sales by value with a market share of 40%.The UK was the second largest global market with 21%,followed by China with 20%.The gallery remained the most important channel for

66、 dealer sales in 2016,accounting for 51%of sales on average.Art fairs accounted for 41%,while online sales were 8%of the total.Sales for dealers with turnover of less than$1 million declined year-on-year,while those with sales between$1 million and$10 million grew by 7%.Those with turnover in excess

67、 of$10 million also showed positive results,with sales growing 2%.Sales at art fairs were estimated to have reached$13.3 billion in 2016,up 5%year-on-year and an increase of 57%since 2010.$13.3 b 11%40%57%$56.6 b 7%1617 Key FindingsThe largest sector of the fine art market in 2016 was Post War and C

68、ontemporary art,accounting for 52%of total sales by value and 37%of transactions.The high end(sales above$1 million)witnessed the sharpest decline in fine art auction sales annually in 2016,falling 34%in value(versus a decline of 22%in the segment under$1 million),and it was the ultra-high end that

69、fell the most,decreasing by 53%.Close to half of the value of sales on the auction market came from just 1%of the artists whose work sold in 2016.Only 15%of artists had works priced in excess of$50,000,and a tiny fraction(just over 1%)had works that sold for more than$1 million.Despite its sharp dec

70、line in 2016,growth in the value of sales above$1 million has still outpaced other segments over ten years,increasing by 73%from 2006 to 2016,more than three times the rates of the low and medium segments.After peaking at just under$8 billion in 2014,the Post War and Contemporary sector has experien

71、ced two years of declining sales,with values falling 18%in 2016 to$5.6 billion,alongside a 12%drop in the number of transactions.Living artists accounted for 41%of the value of sales in the Post War and Contem-porary sector in 2016 and half of the lots sold.Sales in this sub-sector decreased 7%year-

72、on-year to$2.3 billion.The Old Master sector accounted for 13%of the value of the fine art auction market in 2016 and 16%of the number of transactions.European Old Masters accounted for 6%of total fine art sales values and 6%of lots sold.Sales of Modern art at auction fell by 43%in 2016 in value to$

73、2.6 billion,with declines in all of the major markets,while the number of transactions decreased by 6%year-on-year.The Impressionist and Post-Impressionist sector represented 12%of the value and 18%of the volume of the fine art auction market in 2016.Sales in this sector fell by 31%in 2016 to$1.3 bi

74、llion,while the volume of lots sold increased by 13%.Sales in the Old Master sector increased 5%year-on-year to$1.4 billion,with the volume of lots also increasing by 12%.The European Old Master sector also saw an increase in sales of 6%to$594 million.Modern art remained the second largest sector of

75、 the fine art market,accounting for 23%the value of sales and 29%by volume.18%34%73%31%5%43%AuctionArt Sectors41%52%13%1%23%Sales at public auction of fine and decorative art and antiques came under pressure in 2016,with aggregate values falling by 26%to$22.1 billion.26%1819 Key FindingsA survey of

76、US-based HNWIs by UBS and Arts Economics in 2016 revealed that 40%were active in the art and collectibles market in the last two years.12%of US HNWIs had spent over$50,000 on art and collectibles in that period,and 3%had spent over$1 million.An estimated 1.1 million US based HNWIs purchased works of

77、 art or antiques in the market in the last two years.Online sales advanced 4%year-on-year,a relatively strong result in the context of the generally declining market.Online sales accounted for almost 9%of the global art and antiques market by value in 2016.Sales of art and antiques online were estim

78、ated conservatively to have reached$4.9 billion.The art market directly employed an estimated 3 million people in 2016,up 5%year-on-year from 2015.3 mIt is estimated that there were around 310,450 businesses operating in the global art,antiques and collectibles market in 2016,including 296,315 in th

79、e gallery sector and 14,135 auction houses.310 k1.1 m 4%US HNW CollectorsOnlineEconomic Impact40%56%Transactions at the high end make up a tiny portion of the day-to-day activity of the market,with the sales priced at over$1 million accounting for less than 1%of auction or dealer sales in 2016.The m

80、ajority of business conducted in the art market is at levels below$50,000.It is estimated that the global art trade spent just under$18 billion on a range of external ancillary services directly linked to their businesses,supporting a further 333,920 jobs.$18 b$4.9 bThe largest area of spending,alth

81、ough only incurred by dealers,was on art fairs,which represented 22%of the total at$4.0 billion,an advance of 6%year-on-year.22%9%$1 m 78%The three major markets the US,UK and China accounted for a joint share of 84%of total auction sales in 2016.In 2016,94%of the works sold at fine art auctions wer

82、e for prices less than$50,000,although these transactions accounted for only 13%of total sales values.Works sold for more than$1 million accounted for nearly half of the markets value(48%)in less than 1%of transactions.Due to the fall in US auction sales and relatively stable performance at the high

83、 end in China,Chinese auction sales exceeded the US market,giving China the leading market share in this sector with 34%by value versus 32%in the US.The uncertainty prevalent in the market was evident,with the rate of buy-ins rising six percentage points year-on-year in 2016 to 33%.Despite its decli

84、ne in 2016,growth in the value of sales above$1 million has still outpaced other segments over ten years,increasing by 73%from 2006 to 2016,more than three times the rates of the low and medium segments.The high end(sales above$1 million)witnessed the sharpest decline in 2016,falling 34%in value(ver

85、sus a decline of 22%in the segment under$1 million),and it was the ultra-high end that fell the most,decreasing by 53%.Close to half of the value of sales on the auction market came from just 1%of the artists whose work sold in 2016.Only 15%of artists in the auction sector in 2016 had works priced i

86、n excess of$50,000,and a tiny fraction(just over 1%)had works that sold for more than$1 million.Within the high-end segment,ultra-high-end sales (sales above$10 million)have performed best,with an increase of 78%in ten years.34%26%$22.1 b84%6%94%1%34%9697 3|Auction Sales3.1|Auction Sales in 2016Sale

87、s at public auction of fine and decorative art and antiques came under pressure in 2016,with aggregate values falling by 26%to$22.1 billion.13 The fine art market was instrumental in the boom in sales up to 2007 and in the recovery of the market from 2009,with especially strong sales in the Post War

88、 and Contemporary and Modern sectors.However,sales in most fine art sectors declined in 2016,with significantly lower volumes and values at the highest end of the market.Unlike the dealer market,the auction sector is very concentrated,with an important top tier of the ten largest major multi-nationa

89、l auction houses accounting for over 65%of sales.There is also an important second tier of over 500 auction houses in different national markets that,although inferior to the top ten in terms of the value of sales,have significant sales and a foothold in international trade.Then there is a third tie

90、r of small but significant auction houses in most national markets that tend to specialize in their own national art and domestic areas.In most countries,there are also a number of auction houses that regularly sell art alongside other auctionable property such as real estate,cars and collectible it

91、ems.In the top-tier auction houses,fine art accounted for an average of just over 70%of the value of sales.In the second tier,it averaged 53%and in the lower tier houses around 30%.These ratios vary widely between countries and are based on the averages aggregated across all countries in 2016.Auctio

92、n sales boomed up to 2007,with strong increases in the value and volume of sales,but,like the market as a whole,suffered a substantial decline in sales in the aftermath of the global financial crisis,losing 44%of total values in the two years from 2007 to 2009.While the Chinese market was instrument

93、al in supporting the recovery during the period from 2009 to 2011,strong fine art sales in the US drove the market from 2012,with auction sales reaching a high of just under$33 million by 2014.However,sales lost more than 30%of their value since that point with two years of declining sales.Sales hav

94、e averaged growth of 13%per annum in the ten-year period from 2006 to 2016,but were 15%less in 2016 than the level achieved ten years earlier.Christies and Sothebys continued to dominate the auction sector,with a combined 38%share of the auction market,down 4%year-on-year(based on their public aucti

95、on sales only).The two houses had a larger share in some art market sectors also,accounting for the majority of sales values in the Post War and Contemporary market and Modern sectors.Figure 3a|Global Auction Market 2006 to 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium,AMMA,and various auction

96、 houses Billion$10$20$30$35$020062007200820092010201120122013201420152016$5$15$25$26.1$32.9$28.0$18.3$32.4$27.6$27.6$29.9$32.7$29.9$22.1Sales at public auction of fine and decorative art and antiques came under pressure in 2016,withaggregate values falling by 26%to$22.1 billion.13 Public auction sal

97、es only(excluding private and online sales by auction houses).9899 3|Auction SalesChristies,the market leader,reported total sales of 4 billion($5.4 billion),down 27%in US dollar terms on 2015,the second year of declining sales from the record high achieved in 2014 of$8.4 billion.Their sales include

98、d:$4.4 billion in public auction sales(down 32%on 2015);$67.1 million in online sales(up 84%year-on-year);and$936 million in private sales(up 10%on 2015 and accounting for 17%of their total sales,an increase of 5%in share on 2015).Sothebys total sales at public auctions reached$4.1 billion,down 31%o

99、n 2015(the second year of falling sales from 2014,which was also a record high for the company).They also generated private sales of$583 million or 14%of the auction and private sales total.Private sales at Sothebys have fluctuated over the last five years,from a high of 23%in 2013 to a low of 11%in

100、 2014.The share in 2016 is up 2%(from 12%)in 2015.Chinas Poly Auction was the third largest auction company with public auction sales(including sales in Beijing,Hong Kong and Shanghai from 2016)of just under$1.3 billion14,up 1%in dollar terms on 2015,the majority of which were in their Beijing headq

101、uarters.The next largest houses worldwide included Heritage auctions,with sales of$850 million,down marginally on 2015(and down 12%from their record year in 2014 with$969 million),China Guardian reporting sales of$759 million (up 6%year-on-year),and Beijing Council with$768 million.Bonhams was again

102、 among the top-tier houses with sales of over$622 million(down 15%year-on-year)and Phillips had sales of$568 million(including$500 million in public auction sales and$68 million in private sales).All of the top-tier houses engaged in private sales,and these rose to an average share of 16%of turnover

103、 in 2016.For the smaller and second-tier houses,the level of private sales is generally lower,and the survey of the sector showed a fall of three percentage points in average share to 8%in 2016.(These second-tier houses reported that on average 75%of their sales were made at public auction and the r

104、emaining 17%were online.15)Figure 3b|Auction Market Global Share by Value in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium,AMMA and various auction housesChina 34%Others 5%Austria 1%Germany 1%Italy 1%Switzerland 1%UK 18%US 32%France 7%3.2|Market Share and Global Distribution of SalesThe geogra

105、phical market share of global auction sales altered in 2016.The three major markets of the US,China and the UK,accounted for a joint share of 84%of total sales in 2016,down 1%year-on-year.But due to the fall in US auction sales and relatively stable performance at the high end in China,Chinese sales

106、 exceeded the US market,giving China the leading market share in this sector with 34%by value(versus 32%in the US).This represents a rise of almost 8%in share for the Chinese market and a decline of 6%for the US.The UKs share was stable at 18%,as was the share of the EU as a whole at 30%.The changin

107、g hierarchy of global sales in this sector in contrast to the global market share of the entire market discussed in Chapter 1 demonstrates both the dominance of the auction sector in China(which still accounts for close to 70%of sales)as well as the strength of the dealer sector in the US and Europe

108、.The interpretation of any analysis of the volume of auction sales in the global fine and decorative art market is more difficult than the value of sales.Many auction houses sell large volumes of decorative art and collectibles that can vary widely over time,between sales and regions.Therefore All o

109、f the top-tier houses engaged in private sales,and these rose to an average share of 16%of turnover in 2016.16%Chinese auction values exceeded the US market,giving China the leading market share in this sector with 34%of sales(versus 32%in the US.)34%14 Sales data is from AMMA,the Art Market Monitor

110、 of Artron.Data is reported to Arts Economics in January each year and pertains to all data available and reported to AMMA by December 31st of the previous year.15 Auction houses were asked to report sales made via an online auction,not simply including online bidding.For some auction houses,online

111、auctions were hosted via third-party platforms,which,in a few cases,may have meant that there was also an offline sale taking place.This is in contrast to the figures supplied by top-tier houses,where they reported only their purely online sales.100101 3|Auction Salesto compare market share between

112、countries on a consistent basis,the fine art auction sector can provide a better benchmark for comparison.The number of fine art auction transactions fell 23%in 2016,its second year of declining numbers.The US had the largest share of fine art auction sales with 22%of transactions(up 2%on 2015),foll

113、owed by China with 19%(up 6%).France had a 13%share,which was up 2%year-on-year and remained slightly higher than the UK.While some smaller markets had increases in sales,all of the larger markets experienced a drop in the volume of fine art auction sales in 2016,and many had double-digit declines.3

114、.3|Sales Rates and EstimatesBesides looking at trends in sales values and volumes,another means to assess annual performance and the confidence of buyers and sellers in the market is to analyze sales rates or the share of works sold versus unsold or bought-in at auction.Presale high and low estimate

115、s are set prior to auction,with the reserve price generally at or below the low estimate.If bids fail to pass the reserve price,works are bought-in.Increasing buy-in rates can be indicative of both demand issues and supply issues in the market(for example,a lack of the higher quality or sought after

116、 works on sale).They are also tied to the accuracy of auction experts appraisals.Although some studies have shown evidence of bias in particular periods or sectors,the most consistent empirical evidence suggests that,when measured correctly and over the long-term,experts estimates are generally unbi

117、ased.16 Market uncertainty and unexpected price movements may however reduce their accuracy during uncertain periods.Sales rates are also critical in measuring downside risk for buyers and sellers.In order to buy a work,you must pay more than reserve price,but there are no guarantees it will sell ab

118、ove this price in future.A real risk for buyers intending to sell a work in future(and current sellers)is not only that the work does not make its estimate,but also that it does not sell at all.Works bought-in at auction may also have a significantly deteriorated future value,due to reference price

119、and common value effects in the market(or what is commonly called being“burned”at auction17).Buy-ins are significant in the auction market and vary significantly between sectors(see Chapter 5)and between individual auctions.Looking at data on fine art auctions in 2016,the uncertainty prevalent in th

120、e market was evident,with the rate of buy-ins rising six percentage points year-on-year from 2015 to 33%.The key regions where rates rose were the UK and some other parts of the EU,with relatively stable rates in the US,France and China.Demand may also have been weaker than antici-pated at fine art

121、auctions in 2016.Table 3a sets out the lots sold and value of sales versus auction estimates,giving the share of works sold above,below and within the average presale estimate range.The number of lots(and value of sales)that sold for higher-than-anticipated prices was lower in 2016 than in 2015.Lots

122、 selling within the anticipated range of prices dropped by 13%while those selling below the low estimate increased by 16%.Lots sold below the low estimate also accounted for the highest share of individual transactions in 2016(versus the lowest in 2015).Although market-wide rates mask many individua

123、l issues between auctions,sectors and regions,this suggests that,on aggregate,there was weaker than expected buying at auction in 2016.However,one important factor to note in reality is that,although estimates may be unbiased over the longer term,there are certain pressures in very competitive marke

124、ts that can affect estimates and their correlation with sales results in some periods.According to experts in the auction sector,in recent years as competition for vendors has become Figure 3c|Fine Art Auction Market Global Shareby Volume in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from CollectriumUS 22%O

125、thers 17%Switzerland 3%Japan 4%Austria 4%Germany 6%UK 12%China 19%France 13%The number of fine art auction transactions fell 23%in 2016,its second year of declining numbers.16 See McAndrew,Thompson and Smith(2010)“The Impact of Reserve Prices on the Perceived Bias of Expert Appraisals of Fine Art.”J

126、ournal of Applied Econometrics,Vol 27,No.2:235252.17 Empirical studies have shown that paintings that fail to meet their reserve price at auction return significantly less when sold in future.See Beggs,A.and Graddy,K.(2008)“Failure to Meet the Reserve Price:the Impact on Returns to Art.”Journal of C

127、ultural Economics.Vol 13,No.4:301320.102103 3|Auction Salesmore intense,there has been some increasing pressure to commit to a higher estimate in order to secure the sale of a particular work.This may push estimates up for certain works in some periods,and also implies that works selling within thei

128、r estimate range are actually performing better than would be otherwise implied.Overall,for the majority of the works that were brought to auction,those that actually sold(and were not bought-in),sold at expected or better-than-expected prices,and the fall in values in the auction sector is likely t

129、o have been highly contributed to by supply issues(particularly at the high end)rather than solely a demand-driven decline.3.4|A Note on the Chinese Auction MarketAuction sales still dominate the market in China with a share of close to 68%of the value of sales in 2016(including public and private a

130、uction sales).According to the Chinese Auctioneers Associations annual report in 2016 there were 438 auction houses in Mainland China,up by 42 in number year-on-year.As the market has grown,there has been some increased concentration at the top of the auction sector,with the largest companies taking

131、 increased share from the second-and lower-tier houses,and some smaller companies closing or reducing activities.Including sales in Hong Kong,the top five auction houses in China(Poly Auction,Beijing Council,China Guardian,Sothebys Hong Kong and Christies Hong Kong)accounted for a 55%share of the ma

132、rket in 2016.In Mainland China alone the share was higher,with the top five houses accounting for more than 60%of the markets sales.Many of the top houses have operations in both Hong Kong and Mainland China.Sales in Mainland China have dominated in recent years by both the value and volume of sales

133、,and accounted for 71%of the value of sales in 2016(up 7%from a ten-year low of 64%in 2015)and 85%of the lots sold.Sales in Mainland China performed better year-on-year with a marginal reduction in dollar terms versus a fall of over 25%in Hong Kong.ChinaFranceFigure 3d|Buy-In Rates at Fine Art Aucti

134、ons:2015 versus 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium and AMMA50%40%30%20%10%0%5%15%25%35%45%37%38%27%33%43%43%22%29%27%26%29%39%TotalEUUSUK20152016Table 3a|Share of Fine Art Auction Sales Versus Presale EstimatesShare of Sales20162015Change year-on-yearBuy-ins33%27%6%Lots above estima

135、te 36%39%3%Lots within estimate25%38%13%Lots below estimate39%23%16%Value above estimate56%58%2%Value within estimate39%37%2%Value below estimate5%5%0%Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium104105 3|Auction Salesfor 48%of sales,down 3%year-on-year and from a high of 66%at the peak of the mark

136、et in 2011.19 The second largest sector,and best performing of the Chinese art market,was ceramics and other wares.This decorative arts sector has grown considerably in importance,with its share of total sales up from 25%in 2010 to 40%in 2016.The smallest sector of oil painting and contemporary arts

137、 also performed relatively well,maintaining a market share of just 12%by value in 2016.This share has not changed substantially in recent years,but was considerably higher in the period between 2006 and 2008 when the Chinese contemporary market underwent a local and interna-tional boom in sales,and

138、the sector averaged a share of 28%over three years.The volume of transactions in the auction market in China fell by 13%in 2016,the third year of declining sales volumes at auction,with the fine art sectors showing the largest decreases in sales.From 2005 to 2011 the numbers of transactions increase

139、d by more than 200%,but in the years since then,growth in volumes has been uneven and restrained.The volume of lots fell substantially in 2015(by 30%)and,with the continued decline in 2016,the number of transactions is now close to 50%below their peak in 2011.Experts in the market believe that the i

140、ncreased supervision of The auction sector as a whole has seen dramatic changes in size in China over the last ten years.After an extraordinary boom in sales from 2009 to 2011 when other markets were struggling to recover from the fall-out from the global financial crisis,China reached the top of th

141、e global art market ranks.This boom ended abruptly in 2012 with a sharp contraction in sales of 35%,followed by two years of stagnation with cautious buying and low growth in all sectors.The auction sector again witnessed a significant decline in sales in 2015,with values falling 23%year-on-year to$

142、7.8 billion,its lowest level of sales since 2009,as values and lots sold fell,particu-larly in the fine art auction market.In 2016,sales continued to decline slightly in dollar terms,falling 4%year-on-year to$7.5 billion.18 While sales in the lower value segments of the market declined,the segment p

143、riced at over 5 million($750,000)advanced in value by nearly 60%.Some of the strongest year-on-year growth was in the highest priced part of this segment:the number of lots sold for greater than 50 million($7.5 million)grew by 66%while values in this highest segment doubled.Chinese painting and call

144、igraphy was again the largest sector of the market in 2016,accounting Figure 3e|Auction Sales in the Chinese Auction Market 20062016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from AMMABillion$4$8$12$14$16$0$2$6$102014$10.12015$7.82013$10.12012$9.82011$15.22010$8.52009$3.32008$2.72007$2.92006$2.02016$7.5While sa

145、les in the lower value segments of the Chinese market declined,the segment priced at over 5 million($750,000)advanced in value by nearly 60%.18 This change in sales values is affected by currency changes.Measured in RMB terms the market actually rose slightly(by 2%).19 The classification of works so

146、ld at auction in the Chinese auction sector differs considerably from those used in Western auctions (and in Chapter 3).An explanation of these sectors is given in the Appendix.106107 3|Auction Salesthe market,particularly in connection with Chinas anti-graft campaign,and the decline of speculative

147、investors have contributed to the substantial drop in volumes over the last five years.Since the start of the markets boom in 2009 there has also been a widening gap between the number of works coming onto the market and those actually being sold.The number of lots offered for sale in 2016 dropped b

148、y 17%,with the slightly lower decline in lots sold,reducing the rate of buy-ins at auction to 55%.However,the rates of buy-ins remains very high in China on average,both relative to other countries(such as the US at 26%)and in relation to previous rates in China,which were as low as 35%in 2004.These

149、 high rates are indicative of both supply and demand issues,with an oversupply of lower quality works,continuing problems with fakes in the market,and a lack of top quality works with well-established provenance despite high demand.Most dealers and auction houses in China agree that sourcing high qu

150、ality works remains their biggest challenge,as demand far outstrips supply.Many dealers have now been actively sourcing works in overseas auctions to sell in China.This process was simplified further in 2016,with an announcement from the government at the end of the year that the 6%import tax on pai

151、ntings and sculptures(already reduced from 12%in 2012)would be halved again to 3%from January 1st 2017.The government introduced the tax cut to encourage the repatriation of Chinese art from abroad and to stimulate cross-border trade in Western and Chinese art.Auction houses work closely with antiqu

152、e and fine art dealers,and it is estimated that over 90%of the antiques auctioned in China are currently sourced from dealers.Besides the issue of buy-ins,another recurring problem in the Chinese market is the significant extent of late payment or non-payment by winning bidders at auction.While ther

153、e has been much discussion of this issue in China,and regulations are in place,the rate of non-payment at auction has increased in the last three years.In the period from May 2015 to May 2016,the non-payment rate at Chinese auctions rose to 41%,up 5%year-on-year and from a low of 30%in 2013/14.Most

154、dealers and auction houses in China agree that sourcing high quality works remains their biggest challenge,as demand far outstrips supply.42%35%51%41%46%39%49%50%57%57%55%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,00002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420162015Buy-

155、InsLots SoldLots Offered42%53%Figure 3f|Lots Offered Versus Sold and Buy-in Rates in the Chinese Auction Market 2004-2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from AMMA108109 3|Auction SalesFor lots over 10 million,however,there was some improvement.In 2016,52%of lots at this level were completely paid(ver

156、sus 37%the previous year),15%partly paid,and 32%unpaid(down 4%).Clearing rates also differed by sector with the best rates in the 20th century and contemporary art sector,with only 8%unpaid after six months,versus 42%in Modern Chinese Painting and Calligraphy and 57%in the antiques sector.Non-paymen

157、t and late payment remain important issues in certain sectors and segments,and can often pose severe cash flow problems for smaller businesses that cannot absorb the risks.There are several reasons for high rates of late payment in the market,including continuing issues related to questions of authe

158、nticity or provenance,and a different culture of negotiating and transacting.Non-payment or late payment at auction is not a problem unique to China,and occurs with varying frequency at small and large auction houses around the world.However,its extent is much more marked and persistent in China,pos

159、ing a signifi-cant drag on the markets confidence and the depth of development of the auction house sector.Non-payment and late payment remain important issues in certain sectors and segments,and can often pose severe cash flow problems for smaller businesses that cannot absorb the risks.112113 3|Au

160、ction SalesFigure 3g|Averages and Median Fine Art Auction Prices in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium|*All prices are rounded to the nearest$5AverageMedian$60k$40k$50k$30k$20k$10k$780$4,175$955$58,225$4,935$56,885$2,500$47,850$1,225$16,865$5,225$12,890$1,990$12.490$790$6,905$935$5,

161、080JapanGermanyChinaUKUSSingaporeItalyFranceSwitzerland$03.5|Fine Art Auction Prices The fine art auction sector has been instrumental in driving some of the biggest trends in the market over the last ten years.Fine art sales propelled the boom in the market up to 2007 and were critical in its recov

162、ery from 2009.However,this sector has also been one of the key drivers in the markets decline in 2016,particularly with a lower volume of the highest-priced lots appearing on the market during the year.As noted above,fine art20 dominated total sales values in 2016 and,despite declines,remained the s

163、ector where most of the highest prices were achieved at auction.The decline in fine art sales in 2016 was due to a reduction in the volumes sold and lower prices,with average prices decreasing 13%year-on-year.In a very heterogeneous market such as art,global average prices are of very limited value

164、in exploring price dynamics,and even national averages can only offer a broad bench-mark of relative values over time.In many national markets,average prices at auction for fine art declined in 2016,with the notable exception of China,which saw an increase in averages of just over 30%(to$58,225)and

165、the UK,with a 15%rise(to$56,885).In the US,the decline in prices was marked,with values dropping 35%,but declines were smaller in other markets such as France with only a 1%contraction.Average prices at auction are often skewed upwards by a small number of very highly priced lots.To gauge trends in

166、prices over time and between markets,the median price is therefore a useful comparative measure and is analyzed with averages in Figure 3g.21 The Figure shows that averages in all markets are distorted by high prices,but more markedly so in the larger markets where the top-end sales occur.In the US,

167、the average price was 39 times the median price in 2016,and in the UK is was 23 times its size.This was in contrast to between two and ten times its size in other smaller European markets where there are generally lower prices and fewer very highly priced works sold at auction relative to the total

168、number of lots sold.In China,which has a strong middle market at auction,the ratio is 12:1,and there is also a much lower ratio in smaller markets,such as Singapore,where there is a very low volume of sales at auction,but relatively higher prices.21 The median is a measure of central tendency that i

169、s used when distributions are skewed to get a better idea of where the middle of market is.The median price is simply the price separating the higher and lower halves of the distribution of prices:if prices in the art market were arranged from lowest to highest,the median price is the middle price o

170、r center point along the spectrum.20 For the purposes of this analysis,fine art includes paintings,sculptures and works on paper(including watercolors,prints,drawings and photographs),while decorative art while decorative art includes furniture and decorations(in glass,wood,stone,ceramic,metal or ot

171、her material),couture,jewelry,ephemera,textiles and other antiques.The decline in fine art sales in 2016 was due to a reduction in the volumes soldand lower prices,with average prices decreasing13%year-on-year.114115 3|Auction SalesFigure 3h sets out the value and volume of aggregate fine art auctio

172、n sales by reference to price segments,showing the highly skewed nature of prices in the art market.22 In 2016,94%of the works sold at auction were for prices less than$50,000,with 72%sold for$5,000 or less.However,these lower value lots made up a small portion of the markets total sales value:lots

173、under$50,000 accounted for 13%of total sales values,and those under$5,000 only 3%.At the high end of the market,works sold for more than$1 million accounted for nearly half of the markets value(48%)in less than 1%of transac-tions.The number of lots sold at auction for over$1 million fell by 28%year-

174、on-year and the share of value that the segment accounted for fell also fell by ten percentage points(from 58%in 2015).The largest single segment by value in 2016 was works selling between$1 million and$5 million(accounting for 24%of total sales),whereas in 2015 the ultra-high segment of prices over

175、$10 million accounted for the greatest share with 27%.3.6|Price Segmentation and GrowthBecause the market is so skewed by value,the addition or subtraction of a relatively small number of very highly priced lots at auction can have a significant impact on aggregate sales,despite the fact that these

176、trends are unrelated to the majority of businesses in the art market,which transact predominantly at lower prices.One of the main drivers of growth in the art market over the last ten years has been the fine art sector,and within it,sales at the high end of the market.Anecdotally,both dealers and au

177、ction houses have reported that since the global financial crisis and contraction in the art market in 2009,while the higher priced end of the market has recovered well,the middle market has come under increasing pressure and remains the most difficult segment of the market in which to make sales.Th

178、e definition of“middle market”varies significantly between businesses,with record prices in one business considered low or mid-priced in another.In order to analyze the performance of the different segments,the following broad definitions are therefore used to divide up the market:1.The low end pric

179、es up to$50,000.2.The middle market prices from$50,000 to$1 million.3.The high end prices in excess of$1 million,including the“ultra-high end”with prices in excess of$10 million.At the high end of the market,works sold formore than$1 million accounted for nearly half of the markets value(48%)in less

180、 than 1%of transactions.Figure 3h|Share of Lots Sold and Total Value at Global Fine Art Auctions in 2016 by Price Bracket Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium43.6%0.5%28.3%2.1%21.6%10.5%15.0%1.3%0.4%24.4%0.05%0.03%50%40%30%20%10%0%Over$10mUnder$1k$1k$5k$5$50k$50$250k$250k$1m$1m$5m$5m$10m14

181、.0%9.6%19.2%4.6%VolumeValue22 The data used in Figure 3h and other price brackets includes all lots sold at auction regardless of their presale estimates.This differs from data used in previous global reports where the analysis only included lots with estimates in excess of$500.The Collectrium and o

182、ther auction data used here offers a more comprehensive and accurate view of the entire fine art auction market.116117 3|Auction SalesAnalysis of the growth of sales values within different price segments has shown that the high end of the auction market has grown at a much faster rate than the lowe

183、r or middle segments up to 2015.In the ten-year period from 2005 for example,the low and middle end segments of the market grew relatively slowly and at a similar pace.The low end segment of prices up to$50,000 grew by 65%in value,and middle market(in the range between$50,000 and$1 million)grew 89%.

184、The higher end of the market of works over$1 million on the other hand saw much stronger growth,increasing in value by over 400%,while the ultra-high segment(sales over$10 million)outperformed even within this segment,advancing by over 1,000%in value from 2005.However,this trend reversed to some ext

185、ent in 2016,with both the value and volume of sales in the high end of market falling,with the largest declines experienced at the highest price levels.This fits with anecdotal evidence from auction experts and dealers during the year,who have said that,against a general backdrop of economic uncerta

186、inty,there has been some tightening of supply of the highest end consignments by vendors,some of whom have perceived it as a poor or risky time to sell,despite the fact that demand for highly priced works remains high.Figure 3i shows an index of the growth in sales values in the fine art market in t

187、he different price segments over the last ten years using 2006 as the base year.In this period,it is clear that the high end of the market has grown at a much faster rate than the other segments,but this has been moderated by the sharp declines in 2016.The low end saw the lowest growth over ten year

188、s,escalating by only 11%,while the middle market grew by 21%.The high end,on the other hand,grew by 73%in value,although the ultra-high segment had a much more moderate margin in growth rates versus the ten-year period to 2015,advancing by 78%from 2006 to 2016.The high end witnessed the sharpest dec

189、line in sales annually in 2016,falling 34%(versus a decline of 25%in the low end and 20%in the middle),and it was the ultra-high end that fell the most,with sales values decreasing by 53%.Despite the poor performance year-on-year,values at the high end have still recovered much more strongly than th

190、e other segments since the low point of the market in 2009,with a much greater increase in sales over the period and stronger compound annual growth rates(CAGRs).The high end grew over 148%in value since 2009(with the ultra-high end increasing by close to 210%),versus a much slower rate of 35%in the

191、 middle segment and only 1%in value in the low end.Figure 3i|Growth of Sales by Value in Price Segments Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectrium300200500100400Index:Base=100=20060Over$10m$5m$10m$250k$1m$1m$5m$50k$250kUnder$50k20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016Within these broader ran

192、ges of low,medium and high,the best performing individual segments over this ten-year period were the segment of works priced at less than$1,000 and those priced between$5 million and$10 million,which both more than doubled in size.The segment under the most pressure on the other hand has been the m

193、iddle market,and within that market,the segment of prices below$250,000 has under-performed sales priced above$250,000.In the decade from 2006,sales in the segment of prices between$250,000 and$1 million grew three times the amount of the segment between$50,000 and$250,000.These differences are even

194、 more marked in the recovery period from 2009:while the segment over$250,000 advanced in value(by 8%),the$50,000 to$250,000 segment has experienced further declines,dropping 7%in value,including a 23%drop year-on-year from 2015 to 2016.118119 3|Auction SalesIt is clear from Table 3b that the two seg

195、ments of the market that have struggled the most in the years since the bottom of the market in 2009 have been those between$5,000 and$50,000 and between$50,000 and$250,000,both of which have decreased further in value.In terms of the volume of sales,all segments saw a decline in lots sold over 2016

196、.Volumes in the high end fell 17%,with a slightly higher decline in the middle and low ends.However,the ultra-high end saw the greatest decline with the number of works sold falling by 48%.Over ten years the low and high ends have grown at the same pace,with CAGRs of 6%each.The middle has seen much

197、slower growth both in the ten-year period (at 1%)and since 2009.Again the two segments with the slowest growth both over ten years and since 2009 have been those between$5,000 and$50,000 and the segment between$50,000 and$250,000.The strong growth at the high and ultra-high ends of the market has ha

198、d an impact on their share of the fine art markets value.In 2006,the middle and high ends of the market were very close in share,accounting for 40%and 43%of total sales values respectively.However,as the market has grown increasingly polarized,sales values have become consolidated at the top.By 2015

199、,the high end accounted for the majority of sales(57%)versus 31%in the middle segment and 12%in the Table 3b|Annual Growth,Total Growth and Share of Sales by Value Low end Middle Market High endPrice SegmentUnder$1k$1$5k$5k$50k$50$250k$250k$1m$1m$5m$5m$10mOver$10mShare in 20060%2%14%19%21%22%7%15%Sh

200、are in 20161%2%11%15%19%24%10%19%Change in Value 20062016 211%32%4%10%30%59%105%78%CAGR 20061612%3%0%1%3%5%7%6%Change in Value 20092016 354%2%13%7%8%18%12%13%CAGR 20091624%0%2%1%1%2%2%2%Change in Value 2014/15 79%16%20%22%18%13%10%19%Change in Value 2015/16 8%22%26%23%18%15%18%53%Arts Economics(2017

201、)with data from CollectriumTable 3c|Annual Growth,Total Growth and Share of Sales by Volume Low end Middle Market High endPrice SegmentUnder$1k$1$5k$5k$50k$50$250k$250k$1m$1m$5m$5m$10mOver$10mShare in 200623%33%34%7%2%0.4%0.04%0.02%Share in 201644%28%22%5%1%0.4%0.05%0.03%Change in Volume 20062016 21

202、3%41%5%7%28%57%110%79%CAGR 20061612%3%1%1%3%5%8%6%Change in Volume 20092016 532%1%7%14%47%113%137%147%CAGR 20091630%0%1%2%6%11%13%14%Change in Volume 2014/15 113%16%19%23%17%15%8%16%Change in Volume 2015/16 17%20%28%24%19%13%19%48%Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectriumlow end.Although the sh

203、are of the high end fell back four percentage points in 2016(to 53%),it still accounts for the majority of values,with nearly 20%of the total markets value in the ultra-high end segment of sales priced over$10 million.This changing structure of the art market by value has come alongside very little

204、change in the share of the volume of sales.The low end accounted for the majority of transactions in 2016(94%)and this has fluctuated in a fairly narrow band over 120121 3|Auction Salesten years(between 89%and 94%).The high end,on the other hand,has never exceeded 1%of the volume of transactions.Bec

205、ause of the dominance of sales at the high end of the market in the key art market hubs,geographical market share also fluctuates considerably with price level.The top three markets of the US,China and the UK still made up the majority of sales in all price segments in 2016,but their share increases

206、 with increasing prices,particularly in the case of the US,where most of the biggest auctions currently take place.In the market for works priced below$50,000,these three major markets accounted for just over half(51%)of the market by volume of sales and 67%by value in 2016.However,in the middle mar

207、ket their share by value rose to 83%(and 80%of the volume of sales),with China taking a dominant share of 39%.In the high end market for Figure 3j|Market Share of the Fine Art Auction Market by Price Segment in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Collectriuma.By Valueb.By VolumeUnder$50,000Under

208、$50,000$50,000$1m$50,000$1mOver$1mOver$1mOver$10mOver$10mUS 21%US 22%US 24%US 22%US 34%US 41%US 49%US 48%China 31%China 18%China 39%China 39%China 37%UK 15%UK 11%UK 20%UK 19%UK 21%China 31%China 26%China 25%France 10%France 13%France 7%France 7%UK 22%UK 24%UK 24%France 1%France 3%France 4%Others 24%

209、Others 35%Others 10%Others 13%Others 3%Others 1%Others 5%Others 2%France 1%In the high end market for works priced over$1 million,the three top marketsaccounted for most of the works sold,by bothvalue(94%)and volume(92%).works priced over$1 million,the three top markets accounted for most of the wor

210、ks sold,by both value(94%)and volume(92%),and the position of the US is clearly dominant in terms of the value of sales,with a 41%share.In the ultra-high end of the market of works priced in excess of$10 million,only 2%of the value of works sold and 3%of transactions were outside these three major m

211、arkets.Here the dominance of the US was even more pronounced,with a 49%share by value and 48%of the volume of works sold.The top-heavy nature of the market in recent years also extends to the artists whose works sell at auction,with much of the value centered on a very narrow segment of artists.In 2

212、016 there were around 48,380 unique artists whose work sold at fine art auctions around the world.Close to half of the value of sales in 2016(48%)came from just 1%of those artists.122123 3|Auction SalesFigure 3k|Share of the Number of Artists by Price Segment in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data fr

213、om Collectrium60%40%50%30%10%20%0.2%$5m$10mUnder$1k58%$1k$5k52%$5$50k41%$50$250k10%$250k$1m3%$1m$5m1%Over$10m0.1%0%Figure 3k shows the share of the total number of artists whose works sold on the auction market in 2016 in each segment.The majority of artists had works that sold for less than$50,000,

214、with the densest segment being works selling for prices below$1,000.Only 15%of artists had works priced in excess of$50,000,and a tiny fraction(just over 1%)had works that sold for more than$1 million.In other words,just 15%of artists selling at auction in 2016 accounted for 82%of the value of sales

215、 and 5%accounted for two thirds.23 For example,35 of the 60 lots sold(from 64 on sale)at Sothebys Contemporary evening sale on November 17,2016 were guaranteed as were 17 of the 61 lots sold at Christies Post War and Contemporary evening sale on November 12,2016.Despite the disproportionately larger

216、 decline in fine art sales at the highest priced end in 2016,the polarization towards the highest end in terms of the value of sales continues to be a significant feature of the art market.Despite the disproportionately larger decline in fine art sales at the highest priced end in 2016,the polarizat

217、ion towards the highest end in terms of the value of sales continues to be a significant feature of the art market.In contrast,the bulk of sales volumes and most of the artists whose works feature at auction,is at the lower end.The faster than average growth of the highest end over the last ten year

218、s has therefore created a thin market at the high end consisting of a very small number of artists and sales carried out at very high prices.It is important to note that although the high end has been growing the fastest over the past ten years,growth in sales values in this segment does not necessa

219、rily indicate a corresponding trend in its profitability.When surveyed in 2016,nearly 70%of second-tier auction houses reported that their most profitable segment in 2016 was works priced at less than$50,000,and only 10%identified the segment over$1 million.A similar picture emerged for dealers,with

220、 66%reporting that their sales priced under$50,000 were the most profitable.On the other hand,just 7%reported that the most profitable segment was those transactions priced over$1 million.However,these results are tied to the volume of sales conducted at these price levels and many dealers reported

221、anecdotally that it was often easier to make profits on a smaller volume of their more highly priced works,than from trying to sell a large volume at lower margins in order to generate sufficient profit.In top-tier auction houses,while commissions are correlated with price levels and hence greater m

222、argins possible at higher prices,the focus of top collectors on a very narrow group of artists and works in recent years has made the competition to locate and secure vendors increasingly intense.Auction houses in recent years have offered a range of financial incentives,including guarantees,to enti

223、ce buyers,often substantially reducing the profitability from the sale.Although,anecdotally,there has been much talk of reducing these incentives in 2016,there were still examples of high end sales during the year with half or more of the lots on sale guaranteed either by the auction house or third

224、parties23.Online Sales126127 1|The Global Art Market in 2016126127 4|Online SalesKey FindingsSales of art and antiques online were estimated conservatively to have reached$4.9 billion in 2016.Online SalesOnline sales advanced 4%year-on-year,a relatively strong result in the context of the generally

225、declining market.$4.9 bOnline sales accounted for almost 9%of the global art and antiques market by value in 2016.Online sales have become an important method of dealers reaching new customers,with over half(56%)of the online sales generated by dealers made to new clients that had never been to thei

226、r gallery or met them in person.In the dealer sector in 2016,online sales represented an average of 8%of their total sales,up 1%year-on-year.43%of respondents reported that sales between$1,000 and$5,000 had been the most profitable for them in 2016,with a further 29%citing the higher level of$50,000

227、 to$250,000.While they represent only 1%or less in most top-tier houses,online sales in second-tier auction businesses averaged 17%in 2016.In the fine art sector,purely online sales remain low compared to offline.In 2016,only 7%of the number of lots sold at fine art auctions worldwide and 2%of their

228、 value were purely online(that is,where an item is posted online only and bidders can only place their bids online).9%A survey of 50 companies in the online sector revealed that 24%of their transactions were at prices below$1,000 and 75%were for less than$50,000.The largest single segment was sales

229、between$5,000 and$50,000.4%17%43%8%7%56%$1m$10k$10k$100k8%1%19%73%73%11%46%41%2%232233 Table 6c|Share of National Population by Wealth Level in 2016Country$1mSwitzerland21.1%13.6%53.7%11.6%Australia11.1%33.2%49.6%6.2%US34.6%28.6%31.3%5.5%UK21.6%27.0%46.8%4.5%Sweden30.9%36.9%28.4%3.8%Singapore17.6%32

230、.2%46.5%3.6%France26.1%23.9%46.7%3.3%Japan9.3%35.5%52.5%2.7%Germany31.0%33.7%32.9%2.4%Italy22.7%26.1%49.0%2.3%Spain19.0%54.4%25.5%1.0%China67.8%29.3%2.7%0.2%Brazil72.9%25.2%1.8%0.1%Indonesia84.3%14.7%1.0%0.1%Russia93.6%5.7%0.6%0.1%India96.2%3.5%0.3%0.02%Europe48.7%26.7%22.9%1.7%Asia-Pacific74.6%16.2

231、%8.7%0.5%Latin69.8%28.1%2.0%0.1%Africa93.9%5.7%0.4%0.02%World73.2%18.5%7.5%0.7%Arts Economics(2017)with data from Credit Suisseaccounted for the largest share of adults in this wealth bracket at 23%,followed by Japan(14%),China(8%)and the UK,France and Germany with 6%each.In many developed economies

232、 such the US and the larger markets in Europe,one-third to over a half of the adult population lies in the bracket above$100,000.In the BRIC and developing regions,however,despite rapid advances in aggregate wealth,most of the population has wealth of less than$10,000.In all countries,the share of t

233、he population with wealth in excess of$1 million is a small minority.Table 6d shows that,with the exception of Japan,the top 10%of wealth holders controls a disproportionally large share of national wealth.The top 1%of the worlds population owned 51%of its wealth in 2016 versus only 11%for the botto

234、m 90%.The proportion of wealth owned by the top 1%is most skewed in countries such as Russia and India,but also high in the US,China and Brazil.In all of the countries shown,again with the exception of Japan,the bottom 90%of the population owns a minority share of the nations wealth.While the share

235、of wealth in the top segments fell slightly between 2000 and 2007,this has reversed since the global financial crisis and the economic 6|Global Wealth and the Art MarketTable 6d|Share of National Wealth in 2016CountryBottom 90%Top 10%Top 1%Russia11.0%89.0%74.5%India19.3%80.7%58.4%Indonesia24.3%75.7%

236、49.3%Brazil25.8%74.2%47.9%China26.8%73.2%43.8%US22.4%77.6%42.1%Sweden27.6%72.4%35.9%Singapore37.4%62.6%33.0%Germany35.1%64.9%31.50%Spain43.8%56.2%27.4%Canada42.2%57.8%25.6%Italy45.3%54.7%25.0%France43.6%56.4%24.8%Switzerland43.5%56.5%24.8%UK43.4%56.6%23.9%Australia47.3%52.7%22.0%Japan51.6%48.4%18.5%

237、Africa17.4%82.6%51.3%Latin America28.8%71.2%42.0%Asia-Pacific13.7%86.3%40.4%Europe28.9%71.1%32.7%World10.9%89.1%50.8%Arts Economics(2017)with data from Credit Suisse234235 recovery has been shallow,with some layers of society not recovering as well as others.Projections over the next five years show

238、 little change in the breakdown of the top tiers,with expectations that they will continue to dominate wealth holdings.In terms of the regional distribution of the wealthiest 1%of the worlds population,the US again dominates,with a share of 38%of the population in this segment in 2016.This share fel

239、l 6%year-on-year but there remains a significant margin between the US and other economies in this segment such as Japan(10%),the UK(7%)or China(5%).Consideration of how these wealth statistics relate to the art market shows,however,that although a high proportion of wealthy individuals is linked wi

240、th the size of a countrys art market,and is a necessary condition for substantial art sales,it is certainly not the only factor that determines their location and development.Many regions have emerged solely as bases for new buyers rather than as sales or trading centers for the market.These new buy

241、ers have been active in supporting sales in the traditional art market hubs such as the US and UK,boosting sales in these regions alongside domestic buying.The success of these art market hubs has been based on being able to assemble enough desirable art works for sales in one place to attract both

242、local and high net worth buyers from around the world.Japan presents an interesting case,with a very high proportion of wealth but a relatively small art market.Despite this,Japanese buyers have been important in the art markets history,and many dealers have noted the importance of Japanese institut

243、ional buying re-emerging in the last two years.Germany 5%China 5%Italy 4%Canada 4%Switzerland 2%Australia 4%France 5%Japan 10%UK 7%US 38%Others 17%Figure 6d|Share of Global Population of the Wealthiest 1%Worldwide in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Credit Suisse6|Global Wealth and the Art Ma

244、rket236237 6.4|Wealth Inequality and the Art MarketThese broader wealth trends over time show that globalization has brought about a polarization of incomes in emerging and developing economies while,especially since the global financial crisis,the middle classes in developed economies have become i

245、ncreasingly squeezed as more wealth flows to the top end.In the economy generally,increasing wealth inequality can have both growth-promoting and growth-inhibiting effects.While most economists agree that some inequality is needed to propel growth,through incentives to entrepreneurship and innovatio

246、n,the recent rise in inequality has prompted a new look at its economic costs.Inequality can dampen growth through demotivating incentives,particularly as income mobility falls and inherited wealth becomes more dominant and political power more concentrated in the hands of the wealthy.It can also de

247、press aggregate demand,generate greater savings and create investment-reducing social,political and economic instability.The largest art market,the US,has one of the most skewed distributions of income globally,with levels of inequality in the last ten years reverting to those experienced in the 192

248、0s.There are worries that the concentration of wealth in this small share of the population can limit growth,as more income shifts to the wealthy,who,as noted above,tend to save more and spend less of each marginal dollar,potentially causing consumption and therefore economic growth to decelerate.Th

249、ere are some parallel risks in the art market with some dealers and other experts asserting that the paucity of buyers and sellers at the top end,while good for keeping aggregate figures positive,may have limiting effects if external factors create unfavorable selling conditions.Some also assert tha

250、t less income in some lower segments of the market could hold back the mid-to-low tier segments of art trade.Some fear that this concentration of value in global art sales puts the market at risk of becoming polarized and lacking depth.While the top end of the market has grown fastest in the last te

251、n years,the decline in the market in 2016 was heavily influenced by an increasing thinness and lack of supply at the highest end,particularly in the auction sector.Looking at the wider infrastructure of the art market,the strong performance of prices and sales at the top end has also arguably motiva

252、ted both artists and those collectors seeking financial returns.However,again,the increasingly narrow group of artists achieving success can also be demotivating,particularly as it has few measurable links to quality or other objective characteristics.As art is a large and relatively infrequent purc

253、hase for collectors,many new collectors unfamiliar with the market may attempt to reduce the time spent,search and information costs associated with more traditional forms of connoisseurship and gallery going by only buying well-recognized works or those by famous artists.In doing so,they reduce the

254、ir own risk through reliance on the established preferences of previous successful buyers.Collectively these risk-reducing techniques tend to reinforce the“superstar phenomenon”in the art market whereby the works of the most famous artists are demanded the most and achieve by far the highest prices

255、in the market.The superstar ethos not only polarizes prices,but can also deprive other artists of the opportunity to work successfully by concentrating demand on just a few successful artists while emerging artists face ever higher hurdles in gaining entry.Auction houses and galleries in the art mar

256、ket can also find it more difficult to sell a wider range of works,due to over-focus on superstar artists,while having collectors all seeking a small and narrow group of famous artists with a limited supply of works can push the prices of this group to increasingly high levels,putting them out of re

257、ach of many collectors.These collectors may increasingly get an impression of the art market as being out of their reach entirely,even though there are many other less publicized artists and works that are available at much lower prices.There are fears that the concentrationof value in global art sa

258、les puts the market at riskof becoming polarized and lacking depth.6|Global Wealth and the Art Market238239 6|Global Wealth and the Art Market240241 6.5|Global MillionairesAs noted above,art collectors tend to be found predominantly in the wealth brackets above$100,000,and those in the higher end of

259、 this wealth segment have had a significant impact on the market.The number of millionaires has increased dramatically since 2000(rising 155%to 2016)and among them,those with wealth over$50 million have risen the fastest(by over 215%).33In 2016,there were an estimated 32.9 million dollar millionaire

260、s34 worldwide,down 2%in number year-on-year but up 36%since 2010.The wealth of millionaires has increased more rapidly,growing 3%year-on-year to reach$117 trillion,an advance of 68%since 2010.The five largest art markets in 2016(the UK,US,China,France and Germany)accounted for a combined 63%share of

261、 the worlds millionaire population.The US has the most millionaires,by a considerable margin,with 13.6 million,or 41%of the worldwide total.The number of millionaires in any given country is determined by three factors:the size of the adult population,average wealth,and wealth inequality,with all th

262、ree of these high in the US.Japans share of global millionaires has fallen in recent years,but the currency appreciation boosted it again to second place in 2016,ahead of the UK(whose millionaire population dropped 15%).$100$60$40$80$120$20$14004035302520151050Trillion$2016Number(Million)Wealth(USD

263、trillion)24.2201069.229.7201189.1201398.72014115.9201528.6201287.5113.0116.631.734.833.732.9Figure 6e|Number and Wealth of Dollar Millionaires 20102016 Arts Economics,2017 with data from Credit Suisse33 While these trends suggest increasing inequality,in this period,they are in fact driven also by t

264、he more general context in which the world is becoming wealthier over time and hence the bar for membership to these groups gets lowered.34 The term“dollar millionaires”is used here to refer to the millionaires segment as set out in Credit Suisses Global Wealth Databooks,dating from 2010 to 2016,whi

265、ch identifies those with net wealth greater than$1 million,with wealth defined as financial assets plus non-financial assets less debts.Non-financial assets include property,land and other physical assets to be considered when defining a millionaire.The number of millionaires has increased dramatica

266、lly since 2000(rising 155%to 2016)and among them,those with wealth over$50 million have risen the fastest (by over 215%).6|Global Wealth and the Art Market242243 The regional origins of millionaires have changed significantly over the last 20 years.In 2000,there was just 12.9 million millionaires in

267、 the world and 96%of these were in high income economies.Since then,20 million new millionaires have emerged and most of these have come from new and developing economies.While emerging economies such as China,Africa and India all started out in 2000 with millionaire populations in the region of 30,

268、000 to 45,000,Chinas millionaire population has grown to 45 times its size,versus only four to five times in the other regions.(China,including Hong Kong,was home to 1.7 million millionaires in 2016 versus 136,000 and 178,000 in African and India respectively.)In China,this rapidly increasing millio

269、naire population has been associated with rapidly rising inequality,and China now has more residents with wealth above$50 million and more billionaires than any country bar the US,despite these accounting for less than 0.1%of their population.However,one important factor in China is that although th

270、e divide between very high and low wealth in China is increasing,the middle segment is also expanding,with a burgeoning middle class being created on the back of the countrys economic growth during the past two decades.Within this segment the upper-middle class is expected to grow the fastest to bec

271、ome the largest segment of the population by 2022.35 This is by far one of the most important factors for the development potential of Chinas art and antiques market,with upper middle class consumers stimulating the rapid growth in consumption of luxury goods.Although luxury spending within China wa

272、s estimated to have declined in 2015,there were signs of this reversing in 2016 and being supported by higher spending by Chinese consumers overseas.A low range of attractive options for investment,combined with a currency that is still not fully convertible,has supported a significant interest in a

273、lternative investments,including art and antiques.The increasing international dispersion of millionaires has been reflected in the increasingly geographically diverse base of art buyers supporting the art market in recent years.The widening global spread of high-end wealth has affected the art mark

274、ets resilience to economic conditions and helped protect it from the downside risk of reliance on a solely US and European buyer base.This was particularly evident in the speed of the markets recovery from the recession of 2009,with a boost in sales from China and the support of international buyers

275、 aiding the markets bounce back,versus earlier recessions such as the early 1990s when sales took almost 15 years to re-establish their level.The changes in the geographic distribution of millionaires have been the most marked for the wealthiest millionaires or ultra-high net worth individuals(UHNWI

276、s),defined here as those with wealth in excess of$50 million.In 2000,emerging economies accounted for 7%of the worlds UHNWI population,but this had risen to 18%in 2016.The US has also added twice as many UHNWIs as Europe since 2000 and accounted for 50%of the global population in 2016,with China in

277、second place(8%)followed by Germany(4%).Of the 2,206 billionaires estimated to exist by Credit Suisse in 2016,the US again had the highest share(at 29%Germany 5%China 5%Italy 3%Canada 3%Switzerland 2%Australia 3%France 5%Japan 9%UK 7%US 41%Others 17%Figure 6f|Global Share of Dollar Millionaires in 2

278、016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Credit Suisse20 million new millionaires have emerged since 2000,and most of these have come from new and developing economies.35 Estimates from McKinsey Quarterly 2013.6|Global Wealth and the Art Market244245 or 582 individuals),next to Chinas 244.Europe accou

279、nted for 21%of the worlds billionaires,with Germany,the UK and France aggregating to an 8%share.Although estimates of this highest segments net wealth vary,the Wealth-X Billionaire Census published in 2016 estimated that this segment held some$7,683 trillion in total wealth.36 The estimated average

280、wealth per billionaire was just over$3 billion,although one-third of the wealth in this segment was reported to be held by just 6%of billionaires with holdings in excess of$10 billion each.Although Europe and Asia had larger billionaire populations,North America still main-tained the largest share o

281、f wealth,at an estimated 33%of the total.However,the most rapid annual growth in wealth was witnessed in Asia,whereas the wealth of European billionaires declined.A survey of nearly 1,400 billionaires by PWC and UBS noted that,led by China,Asia is creating one billionaire every three days.Unlike Eur

282、ope and the US where the transfer of assets between generations is important for this segments growth,in Asia,there is a also a significant number of young,self-made billionaires whose fortunes come directly from technology,consumer and retail industries and property investment.37 Although it is imp

283、ossible to precisely estimate how many billionaires collect art or how much their collections are worth,research has suggested that the majority of billionaires own art,and that many are important and regular collectors.The Wealth-X Billionaire Census noted that when asked what their primary passion

284、s and interests were,art ranked third(next to philanthropy and travel)and collectibles were ranked tenth.Estimates are that billionaires holdings of art average 0.5%of their net worth,but comparing published figures on net worth and the value of art collections,in reality this extends up to at least

285、 10%for some bigger collectors.Table 6e|Billionaire Wealth by Region RegionTotal Wealth($bn)Global Share of WealthChange Year-on YearAverage Wealth per Billionaire($bn)North America$2,56133%8%$4.1Latin America and Caribbean$4886%5%$3.2Africa$981%14%$2.4Pacific$701%28%$2.1Middle East$4506%9%$2.7Asia$

286、1,68622%20%$2.6Europe$2,33030%2%$2.9Total$7,683100%5%$3.1 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Wealth-XGermany 4%China 9%Italy 2%India 2%Australia 2%Canada 2%Korea 2%Japan 3%France 3%UK 3%US 50%Others 18%Figure 6g|Global Share of Millionaires with Wealth in Excess of$50 million in 2016 Arts Economics(

287、2017)with data from Credit Suisse36 The Census reflects data for 2015 and also suggested a slightly higher estimate of the number of billionaires than Credit Suisse at 2,476.37 UBS and PWC(2016)Billionaires Insights.Estimates are that billionaires holdings of art average 0.5%of their net worth,but c

288、omparingpublished figures on net worth and the value of art collections,in reality this extends up to at least10%for some bigger collectors.6|Global Wealth and the Art Market246247 The number of millionaires is expected to continue to grow,with estimates of an increase to over 45 million in the next

289、 five years.Assuming certain wealth conditions prevail,it is expected that the number of billionaires could rise to close to 3,000 in the next five years,with around 500 of these additions from China and the US.Growth in the millionaire population in China is expected to be more than double that of

290、the US and Europe,which is likely to boost its place in the global ranks,although it seems unlikely to challenge the US in the near future.The US market,despite some decrease in the margin of its lead,seems unlikely to decline from the ranks as a leading global center for wealth and for the internat

291、ional art trade.Although the reasons for the success of the US as an art market include its strong cultural infrastructure,business-friendly fiscal environment and liberal trading regime,undoubtedly it is also due to its continuing to be one of the biggest centers of wealth worldwide.The US has by f

292、ar the highest numbers of HNWIs and UHNWIs,as well as a stronger upper middle class,which gives depth and scope to the market.Cities such as New York are also the temporary home of many global millionaires,and the city attracts these international HNWIs to art sales as a critical mass of the worlds

293、greatest art is put on show at auctions,fairs and exhibitions.6.6|High Net Worth WealthDue to the dominance of the high end of the art market,the buyers that are most influential in shaping trends are the worlds wealthiest individuals,plus those with the ability to mobilize purchases within the art

294、market.While the measures used to assess wealth include illiquid assets such as property,an even more core group of potential buyers relevant to the market is those with investable wealth greater than$1 million,or what will be defined here as HNWIs(high net worth individuals)38.By the end of 2015,th

295、e number of HNWIs was approximately 15.4 million,an advance of 5%over the year.After four years of growth since 2011,this was the highest ever recorded popula-tion of HNWIs,and more than double the number of individuals globally in this category in 2000.The Asia-Pacific region continued to grow the

296、fastest,increasing by over 9%year-on-year to reach 5.1 million and exceeding the HNWI population of North America.The population in North America reached 4.8 million,growing only 2%year-on-year,while Europes HNWIs grew in number by 5%to 4.2 million.It is estimated that Japan and China alone drove ar

297、ound 60%of the growth in the global population of HNWIs.Chinas HNWI population grew 16%buoyed by continued GDP growth and despite a volatile equity market,while the improved economic situation in Japan also added to the increase there of 11%.Together,the US,Japan,Germany and China accounted for 61%o

298、f the worlds HNW population and these four countries accounted for 81%of this groups global population growth.The biggest loser in terms of the HNW population was Brazil,where political volatility and massive equity declines brought numbers down by 8%,and Russia where they declined by 2%.The wealth

299、of HNW individuals also increased,reaching$58.7 trillion,its highest level in history,but growing just 4%year-on-year versus a much higher average trajectory of over 7%per annum in the years from 2010 to 2014.UHNWIs accounted China 16%Germany 4%India 4%Brazil 2%UK 2%France 2%Italy 2%Taiwan 2%Russia

300、5%Others 32%US 29%Figure 6h|Global Share of Dollar Billionaires in 2016 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Credit SuisseThe US has by far the highest numbers of HNWIs and UHNWIs,as well as a stronger upper middle class,which gives depth and scope to the market.38 This definition of what will be refe

301、rred to as“HNWIs”in this section is that used in Capgemini/RBC Wealth Management(2016)World Wealth Report 2016 from which these figures are derived.It measures HNWIs as those with US$1 million or more at their disposal for investing and therefore excludes personal assets and property,collectibles an

302、d other consumables.6|Global Wealth and the Art Market248249 for 34%of the wealth of HNWIs globally and their wealth grew just 2%year-on-year,again due to poor performance in Latin America.The engine of HNW wealth growth continued to be the Asia-Pacific region,where wealth grew 10%over the year and

303、reached$17.4 trillion,making it the largest region for HNW worldwide and surpassing North America for the first time(with$16.6 trillion).In the US,HNW wealth grew by just under 4%,in Europe by 5%,while in Latin America wealth in the segment decreased 4%.Despite the global financial crisis,which saw

304、HNW wealth plummet by 25%over 2008-2009,HNW wealth has grown to nearly four times its size over the last 20 years.Expectations are that wealth will continue to rise in this segment,reaching around$106 trillion by 2025(with a concurrent rise in the population to over 28 million),driven primarily by g

305、rowth in the Asia-Pacific region.A survey of global wealth managers in 2016 by Capgemini identified that the top four nations they felt would drive high net worth growth to 2025 were the worlds three largest art markets:the US,China and the UK,as well as India.39 Expectations are that wealth will co

306、ntinue to rise in the HNW segment,reaching around$106 trillion by 2025(with a concurrent rise in the population to over 28 million),driven primarily by growth in the Asia-Pacific region.39 Capgemini Wealth Manager Survey,2016.6|Global Wealth and the Art MarketFigure 6i|The Total Global Population of

307、 HNWIs Arts Economics(2017)with data from Capgemini/RBC Wealth Management864210121418162001/022015/162014/152013/142012/132011/122010/112009/102008/092007/082006/072005/062004/052003/042002/03EuropeAsia-PacificNorth AmericaOthers0%7.17.88.28.78.89.710.18.610.110.910.711.913.714.615.44.25.14.8250251

308、Besides being geographically concentrated,HNWIs tend to share other similarities,both in their consumption and investment behavior.Research has shown that regardless of location,they tend to participate in the same global markets for luxury goods,while their portfolios often focus more heavily on lo

309、ng-term growth investments,with less focus 6.7|A Survey of US HNWIs Research has suggested that HNWIs generally allocate an average of up to 10%of their wealth to“investments of passion,”although this proportion varies widely between individuals and countries.Within these investments the share of ar

310、t has varied between 15%to over 25%in recent years,with again a great deal of individual and regional variation.Precise data on the interaction,spending patterns and preferences of global HNWIs as a group in the art and antiques market is difficult to gather.The analysis of the global distribution o

311、f wealth gives some indications of the potential for art sales and expenditures in different regions.However,to more specifically investigate some of the characteristics of art buyers,some useful insights on this group can be gleaned through regional surveys targeted at these wealthiest individuals.

312、In 2016,Arts Economics and UBS surveyed 2,025 HNWIs in the US to investigate their interactions with the art market.In terms of demographics,the majority of respon-dents in the sample were aged 50 years and over,with just 10%in younger age groups.However,those active in the art and collectibles mark

313、et had a slightly higher representation in younger age categories,with 16%in their 20s to 40s.The on liquid assets and lower allocations to cash and equities and more to alternative investments40.So-called investments of passion have therefore become a core part of many HNWIs strategy due to their l

314、ongevity and at times low correlation with other traditional assets in time of economic uncertainty.sample of active collectors were mainly business owners(47%),professionals(19%)or senior executives(14%).All those surveyed had personal assets in excess of$1 million(excluding property and private bu

315、siness assets).The majority(77%)of the active collectors had wealth holdings of between$1 million and$5 million,with 23%with investible assets in excess of$5 million.To assess if they were active in the art and collectibles markets,respondents were initially asked if they had purchased a range of pa

316、ssion investments including art,antiques and other items in the last two years.Around 40%of the sample had made such a purchase,with the most popular category being jewelry,gems and watches.Fine art was the third most popular with 28%of the sample having bought a work of art over the last two years,

317、followed by decorative art(26%)and other collectibles such as coins and wine(24%).Table 6f|High Net Worth Wealth(US$Trillion)Wealth(US Trillion$)TotalNorth AmericaAsia PacificEuropeMiddle EastAfricaLatin AmericaForecast 2025$106.0$25.7$42.1$19.9$4.4$2.3$11.72015/16$58.7$16.6$17.4$13.6$2.3$1.4$7.4201

318、4/15$56.4$16.2$15.8$13.0$2.3$1.4$7.72013/14$52.6$14.9$14.2$12.4$2.1$1.3$7.72012/13$46.2$12.7$12.0$10.9$1.8$1.3$7.52011/12$42.0$11.4$10.7$10.1$1.7$1.1$7.12010/11$42.8$11.6$10.8$10.2$1.7$1.2$7.32009/10$39.1$10.7$9.7$9.5$1.5$1.0$6.72009/08$32.8$9.1$7.4$8.3$1.4$0.8$5.82008/07$40.8$11.7$9.5$10.7$1.7$1.0$

319、6.22007/06$37.2$11.3$8.4$10.1$1.4$0.9$5.12006/05$33.5$10.2$7.6$9.4$1.3$0.8$4.21995/6$16.6$4.4$3.5$5.0$1.1$0.4$2.2 Arts Economics(2017)with data from Capgemini/RBC Wealth Management40 Ibid.This survey showed that that most HNWIs(48%)favored growth when looking for investments,choosing assets with goo

320、d long-term growth potential even if they are trading at high prices(versus only 19%preferring a“Buffet-style”value seeker approach of looking for things that are trading below their intrinsic value).6|Global Wealth and the Art Market252253 Of those having made a purchase,most(82%)had purchased less

321、 than five objects,15%had purchased between five and ten and just 3%had purchased more than ten.The majority of respondents(88%)had spent$50,000 or less,8%between$50,000 and$1 million,and 3%had spent over$1 million.Even in this group of HNWIs,there is a very small proportion of buyers at the highest

322、 end of the Studies have shown that the use of credit and loaned funds to purchase investments of passion is common among HNWIs.41 In this sample,12%of respondents reported that they had used credit or loaned funds to purchase works of art or objects in their collections.The portion of their collect

323、ions financed by loans was generally low,with just under half of the respondents reporting that it accounted for less than 10%of their total collection.market.Respondents generally purchased works at the lower-priced end of the market,with 94%most often buying works for less than$50,000 versus just

324、1%buying at prices over$1 million.The most popular channel for purchases was through a gallery or dealer,which,combined with purchasing at art fairs,accounted for over half(57%)of responses.21%of respondents bought directly from artist studios and 19%through auction.Figure 6j|Share of Investments of

325、 Passion Purchased in the Last Two Years Arts Economics(2017)60%40%50%30%20%10%3%56%35%28%26%24%14%9%0%Sport investmentsJewelry,gems,watchesDesign worksFine artDecorative artOther collectiblesAntiquesClassic cars,boats jets40%30%35%25%20%15%10%5%7%5%40%21%21%19%17%15%9%0%Through an advisorOtherDeale

326、rs/galleriesOther retail outletsArtist studiosAuctionsArt fairsOnline platformsPrivate/c2cFigure 6k|Channels for Purchasing Art and Collectibles Arts Economics(2017)41 A study by Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management in 2015 discovered that the use of credit in HNW portfolios is widespread,averaging a

327、round 18%as a percentage of assets(over$10 trillion).Their Global HNW Insights Survey revealed that 9%of HNWIs held some kind of credit to finance purchases of investments of passion.Applying these shares to the latest figures on the HNWI population indicates that more than 530,000 HNWIs used credit

328、 to finance purchases of art,antiques and collectibles in 2016.of respondents reported that they had used credit or loaned funds to purchase works of art or objects in their collections.12%6|Global Wealth and the Art Market254255 However,28%had used debt to finance more than half of their collection

329、,and 14%had financed over 75%of their art works through loaned funds.Collectors were asked to rank the importance of a number of factors in their decision to purchase works of art or objects for their collection.Aesthetic and decorative considerations were ranked highest,with 62%of the sample consid

330、ering them extremely or very important(and only 15%rating them as unimportant).Emotional drivers and collecting from a passion for art ranked second,with 78%rating them important(including 48%who felt that they were extremely or very important).Supporting artists and culture was also important for t

331、he majority(53%)of respondents.Status and social networking considerations were,however,less of a driver for this group,with 70%and 65%respectively rating them as unimportant.Regarding its investment potential,41%of collectors felt that the expected financial apprecia-tion of their investment in the

332、 work was important and 34%recognized the risk benefits and potential for portfolio diversification as important.Its function as a hedge against inflation or to protect their capital was rated slightly lower,with just 31%stating this as an important consideration prior to purchase.Applying some of t

333、hese survey results to the wider HNWI populations currently in the US42,the following estimates emerge:Approximately 1.1 million HNWIs had purchased works of art or antiques in the market in the last two years.While their involvement varied,61,855 had spent in excess of$250,000 while around 38,290 spent in excess of$1 million.At the highest end,approximately 4,400 HNWIs had spent in excess of$10 m