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1、As a leading independent advisor to the aviation industry,Alton Aviation Consultancys annual commercial fleet forecast is globally recognized as the aviation communitys trusted data source.While the industry continues its recovery path and air traffic is almost back to pre-pandemic levels,it continu

2、es to grapple with supply chain disruptions and workforce shortages the MRO sector has also not been spared from these issues.Alton has recently updated its global commercial air transport fleet and MRO demand forecast to reflect these new dynamics,while incorporating near-term macroeconomic(e.g.int

3、erest rate cuts)and geopolitical challenges(e.g.continued Russia-Ukraine war,Middle Eastern unrest)that have put upward pressure on costs and demand.Our previous report focusing on fleet dynamics can be found here.This report details our global MRO demand forecast.IntroductionSteady Growth:Steady Gr

4、owth:2025-2035 MRO Demand Forecast2025-2035 MRO Demand ForecastPage 1Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025 MethodologyAltons MRO demand forecast is developed using a bottom-up approach.Our fleet forecast forms the basis of our MRO forecast.The fleet forecast reviews the current fleet and projects fo

5、rward the future fleet based on a detailed analysis of the variations in airline operations,regions,aircraft types,age,and industry cyclicality.Alton determines the total global fleet by reflecting annual changes in firm order backlog,production rates,retirements,conversions,and inter-regional aircr

6、aft transfers.Given the potential uncertainties amid supply chain and geopolitical risks,Alton has rigorously debated and stress-tested assumptions that would form our 10-year MRO outlook.To develop the forecast,Alton layers on our flight hour and flight cycle utilization forecast to derive utilizat

7、ion-driven maintenance requirements,as well as maintenance intervals to derive periodic maintenance schedules,with our maintenance cost assumptions across all the maintenance categories.Additional assumptions including USM usage,engine green-time usage and other assumptions are finally layered on to

8、 provide a true bottom-up model that reflects current market dynamics.Key highlights of Altons latest forecast include the following:In 2024,Global MRO spent was$124 billion.Alton estimates it will grow from$127 billion in 2025 and reach$153 billion by 2035,at a CAGR of 1.9%The combination of higher

9、 material cost escalation and labor cost inflation,higher aircraft utilization,and fewer-than-expected retirements contribute to strong long term year-over-year MRO demand growth By geography,Asia Pacific will contribute the largest source of MRO demand,representing 36%of the global total,followed b

10、y 20%in North America,and Europe at around 20%of the global MRO demand By aircraft type,narrowbody jets will represent the strongest MRO demand,growing from its current share of 55%of total demand to 65%over the next 10 years,in line with the growth of the global narrowbody fleet By category,engine

11、MRO is expected to represent about half of all MRO spend.This is followed by component MRO at 21%,line maintenance at 12%,airframe heavy maintenance at 7%,and modifications at 6%The share of new-generation engines represents 27%of the engine overhaul volume today,and is expected to represent close t

12、o 77%of the engine overhaul volume by 2035.Some new generation engines currently suffer from low time-on-wing but are expected to improve as the programs mature Modifications is the fastest growing MRO segment with 3.7%CAGR over the next decade,driven by a desire for airlines to differentiate themse

13、lves from the competition.Significant spending is expected from cabin interior modification/refurbishment programs and inflight connectivity installations Forecast HighlightsPage 2Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025 Industry Outlook2024 was the year when the global aviation industry,as a whole,ful

14、ly recovered from the impact of the pandemic.However,certain regions performed differently based on variations in economic performance,geopolitics,and government policies.For example:APAC traffic had yet to recover fully to pre-pandemic levels,but is a whisker away.Compared to other regions,it was o

15、ne of the slowest in terms of recovery trajectory,primarily due to the delayed reopening and economic challenges in China.Chinas domestic market rapidly surpassed(+14%)that of 2019 but international traffic remains 26%below 2019 levels.In contrast,India witnessed a strong surge in demand in both dom

16、estic and international markets in 2024.Traffic in Europe,which was impacted by the continuing conflict in Ukraine,also recovered in 2024 on the back of strong leisure travel demand.This was partly supported by a strong US economy which drove leisure and“Visiting Friends and Relatives”or VFR demand

17、in Europe in the summer.Even as the post-pandemic recovery demand tapers off,the industry continues to suffer from supply chain issues.This has led to new aircraft production delays,and continued to result in older(and more maintenance-intensive)aircraft being in service for longer,driving increased

18、 MRO demand.Supply chain issues have also resulted in a lack of spare parts in the market,increasing maintenance turnaround times and causing inefficiencies/knock-on delays for both airlines and MROs.A supply-constrained market has driven up MRO costs through higher material prices and limited avail

19、ability of materials and parts,stemming from fewer aircraft retirements and reduced part-out opportunities.Supply chain challenges continue into their third year,giving airlines,aerospace manufacturers,and MRO providers continued painSOURCE:ALTON;CAPAAverage Age of Global In-Service and Inactive Fle

20、et13.5 16.1 121314151617AVERAGEAGE19%Page 3Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025 Industry OutlookSkilled labor shortages continue to plague the industry.As the global fleet size grows,the shortage will only be exacerbated.An aging technician workforce,combined with a lack of interest in entering the

21、 field from younger talent,presents a threat to the industrys ability to supply sufficient manpower to service increasing MRO demand,as well as an erosion of knowledge and expertise.MROs face rising costs as they look to provide monetary incentives to retain their existing workforce,or attract new o

22、nes to grow their business.In addition,surging demand and MRO event delays/lengthened turnaround times have resulted in widespread slot scarcity.As a result,buying behavior for MRO services is evolving from short-term(9-12 months)to long-term(3-5 years).On-going reliability issues with new-generatio

23、n engines will also drive near-term demand.Many engines continue to have their overhauls extended due to a lack of spare parts,resulting in full engine MRO facilities.On the flip side,while cargo demand surged in 2024,after posting 14 consecutive months of double-digit demand growth,the freighter co

24、nversion market has started to normalize.Any impact of strong cargo demand on the freighter conversion market is expected to see a delay particularly in the small narrowbody freighter segment,leading to a potential oversupply(unlike widebody and large narrowbody conversions such as the A321).Shortag

25、es are a double-edged sword,impacting MRO providers positively and negatively While MRO demand remains robust,there are multiple variables that can impact this years MRO forecast.Economic recession risks and geopolitical tensions continue to persist,while an increasing probability of a trade war ini

26、tiated by the US would add unwanted downside risks to the global economy that is only just recovering,which could affect utilization and consequently MRO demand.MRO demand growth will remain strong,but can be vulnerable to geopolitical eventsPage 4Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025 MRO ForecastAl

27、ton estimates that the global MRO spend was$124 billion in 2024,and will be$127 billion in 2025,growing 1.9%year-over-year.Higher escalations have led to higher material and labor costs,partially driving the higher projected spend on MRO seen in this years forecast.Labor costs have seen upward press

28、ure,caused by a shortage of skilled labor across the industry.Between 2025 and 2035,annual MRO spend is projected to increase by$26 billion,to$153 billion in 2035,with a CAGR of 1.9%for the next ten years.The lower 10-year growth figures compared to the 2023 forecast can be largely attributed to slo

29、wer fleet growth due to the current delivery delays and a slower growth in air traffic demand over the period.Higher growth is expected from 2030 due to increased maintenance events from the current newer generation fleet.NOTE:CONSTANT 2024 DOLLARSSOURCE:ALTONOperators in the Asia Pacific region wil

30、l generate the largest MRO demand,contributing to slightly more than a third of the global total.MRO spending in the region will grow from$46 billion in 2025 to$55 billion in 2035,equivalent to a 1.9%CAGR.The second largest region by MRO spend is North America,with$30 billion of spending in 2025 tha

31、t rises to$39 billion in 2035,at a 2.7%CAGR.This is mainly driven by modification demand growth,which will grow at ca.4.5%per annum.Europe will experience the slowest growth among all the regions over the next decade,with a CAGR of only 0.5%.The market is slated to grow from$27 billion in 2025 to$28

32、 billion in 2035,aligned with lower fleet growth in the region,a result of both slower economic growth and sustainability considerations that lower demand for short-haul flying.Total MRO Spend Forecast,by Region(US$B)Page 5Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025 Aircraft Type TrendsMRO demand from nar

33、rowbody jets is expected to contribute almost two-thirds of total MRO demand by 2035,up from slightly more than half today.MRO demand from narrowbody jets is slated to grow at about 3.5%p.a.over the next 10 years.This aligns with the projected fleet composition by aircraft type in 2035,where 68%of t

34、he fleet will be comprised of narrowbody jets,up from 60%today.Given that the MRO spend per narrowbody aircraft is smaller than widebody aircraft,we naturally expect that the narrowbody jet share of MRO spend is smaller than their share of the fleet.Total MRO Spend Forecast,by Aircraft Type(%)SOURCE

35、:ALTONThe engine MRO segment contributes to the lions share of MRO spend,at 53%of total spend in 2025,and continues to do so through 2035.Demand for modifications continue to be the fastest segment of growth,driven by airline demand to differentiate their hard products,amidst an industry-wide trend

36、of focusing on passenger experience.Cabin interior retrofit/refurbishment programs and installation of inflight connectivity are the key drivers of modifications demand.The airframe MRO segment,on the other hand,exhibits a decline in market share and value as new-generation aircraft utilizing compos

37、ite materials are designed with longer check intervals.As the share of new-generation aircraft increases,the overall airframe maintenance needs for the fleet will decline.Narrowbody Jet,55%Regional Jet,6%Turboprop,2%Widebody Jet,37%2025 Narrowbody Jet,65%Regional Jet,4%Turboprop,2%Widebody Jet,30%20

38、35 Segment TrendsPage 6Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025Engine MRO Demand ForecastEngine MRO segments position as the highest contributor of MRO demand and spend will continue to be supported by a combination of:On-going reliability issues with current new-generation engines,in particular the PW

39、1100G and Trent 1000 models Transition from older,less fuel-efficient,current generation engines(e.g.,CFM56-5B/7B,IAE V2500-A5,Rolls-Royce Trent 500/700/800,Pratt&Whitney PW4000,and General Electric CF6-80C2)to new generation engines such as the CFM LEAP,Pratt&Whitney GTF,Rolls-Royce XWB and Trent 1

40、000,and GE GEnx NOTE:CONSTANT 2024 DOLLARSSOURCE:ALTON53%51%21%21%12%14%8%7%6%7%124 127 133 153 2024202520302035ModificationsAirframeLineComponentsEngines Historical Forecast MRO Spend by Maintenance Type(US$B)29%77%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342

41、035New Gen EnginesCurrent/Mature Gen EnginesEngine Overhaul Events by Engine GenerationSOURCE:ALTONPage 7Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025The share of total overhaul events for new generation engines will account for 77%of total overhaul events by 2035,increasing from ca.30%today,as these new ge

42、neration engines gradually enter into service,in replacement of current/mature generation engines.From a cost perspective,engine MRO costs have increased significantly faster than all other MRO segments,growing from 40%to 53%of total MRO demand.The primary driver of these cost increases is due to an

43、nual engine OEM material catalogue list price(CLP)escalations.Other drivers include higher material scrap rates and limited repairs in new generation engines,extended shop visit turnaround times due to labor and material shortages,wage inflation,and lesser used serviceable material(USM).SOURCE:ALTON

44、Engine MRO Costs as a%of Total MRO CostIn addition,poor reliability impacts the overhaul intervals for new generation engines today.Alton projects that the new generation engines will require an engine overhaul more quickly compared to current/mature generation engines due to short-term entry into s

45、ervice(EIS)issues.For example,CFM-LEAP engines have had some defects in the internal components,and the GTF engine family has had problems involving the fan blades,oil seal,and combustion chamber lining.OEMs have been actively addressing these issues and Alton expects more reliable engines over time

46、,leading to longer intervals for engine overhaul;eventually,the intervals are projected to stabilize once the engine enters a matured stage.This is forecast to be from around 2030.40%53%60%47%20162025ALLOTHERMROENGINEMROPage 8Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025 ConnectivityIn-flight connectivity h

47、as seen an increased presence on new aircraft.It is no longer perceived as an optional modification,particularly on widebody aircraft used for long-haul flights,as it is now seen as a core offering for carriers in the competitive market for international passengers.In addition,airlines are also tryi

48、ng to optimize aircraft operations and communication between the cabin and the operations on the ground,utilizing in-flight connectivity(e.g.,real-time verification of on-board transactions,pre-arrival communications with station,etc.)In line with the trend of differentiating their products,airlines

49、 are also seeking to upgrade their cabin products.Narrowbody aircraft are increasingly flying with premium-heavy forward cabins due to the longer flight distances and capabilities(such as A321neo XLR),but at the same time densifying economy cabins to lower their per-seat costs.Passenger-to-freighter

50、(P2F)ConversionsIn the P2F segment,Alton forecasts that P2F conversion demand will remain steady over the next 10 years,despite the near-term decline due to a lack of feedstock for conversions arising from delayed retirements.The current cargo feedstock is aging,and widebody freighters such as the M

51、D-11,DC-10,and 747s and narrowbody freighters(e.g.,737 Classic and 757),will be replaced by widebody aircraft(e.g.,the A330,777),and narrowbody aircraft(e.g.,the 737NG and A320ceo)over the next 10 years in large numbers.Modifications Demand ForecastAlton also expects modification spending to grow,wi

52、th a 3.7%CAGR during the next decade,from$7.9 billion in 2025 to$11.3 billion in 2035.Cabin interior is the largest segment,which will grow from$4.3 billion in 2025 to$6.6 billion in 2035 with a 4.3%CAGR;Connectivity grows fastest with a 4.6%CAGR,even though it is the smallest segment in the modific

53、ations MRO market.NOTE:CONSTANT 2024 DOLLARSSOURCE:ALTON54%59%24%22%11%9%7%6%4%5%8 8 8 11 2024202520302035ConnectivityPaintP2FAircraft/EngineUpgradesCabin Interiors Historical Forecast Modification Spend by Category(US$B)Page 9Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025How Alton Accelerates Our Clients Gr

54、owthAlton Aviation Consultancy is a specialized consulting firm with deep expertise across the aviation value chain and in particular a strong focus on aerospace and MRO domains.Alton assists clients with strategy and business plan development,operational improvement and performance benchmarking,str

55、ategic sourcing and supply chain management,and transaction support.Selected prior engagements include:Asia Pacific Full Service CarrierAlton was retained by a major Asia Pacific airline to develop a comprehensive maintenance sourcing strategy to support the airline.This necessitated Alton to review

56、 airframe,engines,components,APUs,and landing gear MRO contracts.Leveraging Altons proprietary MRO cost database developed over decades of MRO strategic sourcing engagements,Alton benchmarked each of the existing MRO contracts and helped develop a go-forward MRO sourcing strategy for the airline.Mid

57、dle East Airframe MRO ProviderAlton performed a comprehensive financial and operational benchmarking for a Middle East Airframe MRO that had been under-capitalized and experiencing declines in revenues and profitability.Alton performed a comprehensive enterprise assessment,gap,and root cause analysi

58、s,and developed a comprehensive business transformation plan and growth strategy.Through a combination of organizational,business process,productivity,technology,and facility infrastructure improvements,the MRO more than doubled its revenue and EBITDA within the existing facility footprint.European

59、Flag CarrierAlton was tasked to perform an operations benchmarking assessment of the MRO organizations embedded within the European flag carrier and its airline-affiliated MRO division,and develop a strategy to support a pathway towards an industry-leading operating model.Alton developed an extensiv

60、e market model to support an understanding of the addressable market for the various MRO segments,performed“walked the floor”to understand gaps in the process workflows and compared current performance against peers.Alton also recommended pathways for implementation and developed a go-to-market stra

61、tegy to develop a third-party business,leveraging improved operating economics,favorable investment opportunities and an attractive addressable market.Page 10Alton Aviation Consultancy April 2025About AltonAlton Aviation Consultancy is a global advisory firm serving the aviation and aerospace indust

62、ries.The firm was founded by veteran aviation industry executives,globally recognized for their thought leadership,quantitative analytics,and innovative solution development.The firm offers full value chain coverage,with clients including airlines,manufacturers,MRO and aftermarket service providers,

63、lessors and the broader financial and investment community.With offices in New York,Dublin,Hong Kong,Beijing,Tokyo,Dubai,and Singapore,Altons diverse team of professional advisors bring a global perspective with deep regional expertise across the entire aviation value chain to its client engagements

64、.Typical client engagements include strategic business planning,operational performance improvement,restructuring,and transaction support.Our Global PresenceNEW YORK1700 Broadway,Suite 2202 New York,NY 10019 USA+1 212 256 8488 DUBAIMedia One Tower Level 38,Sheikh Zayed Road,Al Sufouh 2,Dubai,UAE+971

65、 56 694 2030 HONG KONG12F,BOC Group Assurance Tower 133-136,Des Voeux Road Central,Hong Kong+852 8191 3028 TOKYOTaiyo Seimei Shinagawa Building.28th Floor,2-16-2 Konan Minato-ku Tokyo,Japan+81 3 4530 6368 DUBLIN4 Upper Pembroke Street,Dublin 2,Ireland+353 1 566 8939 BEIJING8 Guanghua Dongli,China Ov

66、erseas Plaza,South Tower,Floor 11,Suite A053,Chaoyang,Beijing 100020 China+86 10 8598 4981 SINGAPORE80 Raffles Place Level#11-20,UOB Plaza 2,Singapore 048623+65 6513 1276 For more information,please contact the report authorsJoshua NgDIRECTORSINGAPOREJonathan BergerMANAGING DIRECTORNEW YORKAdam GuthornMANAGING DIRECTORNEW YORKAlan LimDIRECTORSINGAPORENEW YORK|DUBLIN|DUBAI|HONG KONG|BEIJING|SINGAPORE|TOKYOAviation Finance|Airline|Aviation&Aerospace Investment|Business&General Aviation Aerospace Manufacturing|Airport|MRO&Aftermarket|Technology&Mobility