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1、1 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects Quarterly Report Q1/2025 2 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects Quarterly Report(Q1/2025)A report produced for the European Travel Commission by Tourism Economics Brussels,May 2025 ETC Market Intelligence Report 3 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects(Q1/2025)All rights

2、reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted,provided the source is given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible websites,this should be done via a link to ETCs corporate webs

3、ite,referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the European Travel Commission.Data sources:This report includes data

4、 from the TourMIS database,STR,IATA,Eurocontrol,UN Tourism,Lighthouse and MMGY TCI Research.Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.Published by the European Travel Commission Rue du March aux Herbes,61,1000 Bruss

5、els,Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email: ISSN No:2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics(an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group.Cover:Chteau en hiver.Chteau romantique de conte de fes dans le pittoresque paysage montagneux,couver

6、t de neige.Chteau avec glise blanche,hautes tours,toits rouges,murs en pierre.Chteau de Bouzov,Rpublique Tchque.Image ID:1906569820 Copyright:Martin Mecnarowski 4 Foreword 2024 marked a milestone for European tourism,as international tourist arrivals officially achieved pre-COVID levels.While a few

7、destinations are still catching up,their strong year-on-year growth signals ongoing recovery.The start of 2025 has also maintained momentum,with most reporting destinations recording solid growth,often from a lower base,and reflecting the sectors resilience amid persistent challenges.Ongoing geopoli

8、tical conflicts,economic uncertainty,financial pressures,overcrowding and extreme weather events will continue to shape the tourism landscape in 2025.Furthermore,the US-led trade war is raising economic uncertainty and concerns across the global travel industry,with tariffs and geopolitical friction

9、s threatening to impact global travel demand and disrupt businesses worldwide.In this context,price increases are driving more budget consciousness among travellers,boosting demand for value-for-money,short-haul travel and domestic getaways.Recent data has also shown increased preferences for destin

10、ations with cooler climates,as travellers seek some relief from rising temperatures.Winter ski destinations and those offering Northern Lights travel have seen increased arrivals early this year.Encouragingly,this trend has not come at the expense of Southern&Mediterranean destinations,many of which

11、 performed well by diversifying their tourism offerings,boosting off-season travel and increasing air connectivity and capacity.As we look to the year ahead,the European tourism industry must remain flexible to navigate an increasingly complex and uncertain global environment.To stay resilient,it wi

12、ll be critical to concentrate efforts in diversifying source markets and tourism products,investing in sustainable and climate-resilient infrastructure and embracing digital readiness to meet the consumers evolving needs.Supporting the tourism workforce,promoting off-season and off-the-beaten track

13、travel and strengthening coordination with governments and tourism stakeholders will also be essential to manage emerging disruptions and maintain the tourism sectors resilience.Jennifer Iduh Head of Research&Insights European Travel Commission(ETC)5 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects (Q1/2025)Table

14、of contents Executive summary.6 1.Tourism performance summary 2024.9 2.Tourism performance summary 2025 .13 3.Global tourism forecast summary.18 4.Recent industry performance.19 3.1 Air transport.19 3.2 Accommodation.21 5.Key themes.24 4.1 Special focus:Rising global uncertainty and what this means

15、for travel.24 4.2 The value of European tourism.27 4.3 Risks.28 6.European travel sentiment tracker.30 7.Key source market performance.34 8.Origin market share analysis.45 9.Economic outlook.57 Appendix 1.63 Appendix 2.65 Appendix 3.66 Appendix 4.68 6 Executive summary European tourism sees strong e

16、nding in 2024 while growth uncertainties climb to new highs in 2025.European tourism demand ended 2024 on a strong footing,with international tourist arrivals increasing by 6.2%on last year and most destinations reporting substantial increases.European tourism officially exceeded pre-COVID levels(+6

17、.2%)in 2024,although 11 out of 31 reporting destinations remain below 2019 levels.These include destinations such as Latvia,Romania and Estonia,which also feature among the fastest-growing countries based on year-on-year performance.Consumer preference continues to lean towards value-for-money and d

18、estinations with milder temperatures.The latter,however,did not hamper demand for some traditionally hot Southern&Mediterranean destinations including Malta,Serbia,Spain and Greece,which outperformed the regional average in terms of arrivals.ETCs recent research among Europeans indicates that inflat

19、ion,economic concerns and geopolitical tensions remain the top travel concerns followed by overcrowding and extreme weather1.Intensifying downside risks dominate Europes tourism outlook in 2025 amid global trade disputes that could lead to tighter financial conditions,economic pressures and ongoing

20、geopolitical conflicts.Foreign visits to European destinations,2025 year-to-date Momentum has continued into early 2025,with arrivals up 4.9%across all reporting destinations.Growth rates,however,should be interpreted with caution due to early year volatility,although data is expected to normalise a

21、s the year progresses.About 90%of reporting destinations have seen year-on-year growth in arrivals,particularly winter ski destinations and those offering Northern Lights travel.Non-traditional winter getaways like Cyprus(+15%)and Malta(+13%)succeeded in diversifying their tourism offer,attracting v

22、isitors outside peak seasons.In the case of Malta,growth is also due to increased air connectivity and capacity.European air travel demand remains above pre-pandemic levels European air passenger demand remains strong at the end of 2024 and into early 2025,relative to the same months of 2019.While g

23、rowth in January eased slightly,revenue passenger kilometres(RPK)were still up 8.2%compared to 1 Monitoring Sentiment for Intra-European Travel Spring/Summer 2025 Source:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination%Change 2024 7 January 2019 and 8.6%compared to January 2024.European air passenger dema

24、nd has been growing at a slower pace compared to most global regions,except Asia/Pacific.In Asia/Pacific,demand has fluctuated in recent months on 2019,with lower demand in October and December,but higher in November and January.Januarys growth was remarkable,likely driven by the Chinese New Year at

25、 the months end.International monthly air passenger growth(%change)Storm clouds ahead:navigating an uncertain global outlook amid US trade policy Since February 2025,the US has introduced several waves of tariffs against trading partners.Trade tensions have increased global economic uncertainty whic

26、h will lead to a significant slowdown in global growth and undermine travel demand growth.According to the IMF,risks of a US recession have now raised as tariffs disrupt supply chains,boost inflation and put pressure on consumers.The IMFs World Economic Outlook,April 2025,reports that US economic gr

27、owth is expected to decline to 1.8%in 2025.This represents a 1%reduction from the rate for 2024 and 0.9%from the forecast rate in the January 2025 WEO Update.Tariffs are also expected to weigh on US growth in 2026,which is projected at 1.7%.The downward revision in the US mirrors increased policy un

28、certainty,trade tensions and weaker consumption growth.In the euro area,growth is expected to decline slightly to 0.8%in 2025 and pick up modestly to 1.2%in 2026 due to rising uncertainty and tariffs.2 Global GDP impacts under a heightened tensions scenario 2 https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/I

29、ssues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025-10-505101520AfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastN.America%change vs.2019,RPKOct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Source:IATA-3-2,5-2-1,5-1-0,50GCCAfricaLatAmEastern EuropeUKJapanEurozoneUSAsia PacificChinaEMsWorldAEs%difference in level of GDP vs bas

30、eline in 2026Source:Tourism Economics 8 The trade conflict is expected to have the greatest impact on the US and China with negative effects on travel.These effects could be translated into weaker economic growth,reduced household incomes limiting travel affordability,weaker travel sentiment due to

31、uncertainty and perceived instability and potential travel bans along with increased restrictions.Nevertheless,some offsetting might also be apparent including substitution of travel to the US(particularly from China)and potentially a boost in short-haul travel within Europe,with more tourists optin

32、g to remain within the region.Despite headwinds,outbound travel from both China and the US will remain key drivers of international tourism.US travel to Europe continues to perform strongly with over 80%of reporting destinations experiencing year-on-year growth in Q1 2025.Norway recorded the sharpes

33、t increase in overnights,driven by demand for winter experiences including the Northern Lights.Mediterranean destinations such as Malta(+35%)and Cyprus(+27%)also outperformed in arrivals,albeit on a small base.Trkiye(+20%)also reported robust growth in US arrivals year-on-year.This growth is expecte

34、d to continue helped by expanded transatlantic capacity from Turkish Airlines,particularly over the summer.“European destinations will continue to implement strategic efforts to maintain their appeal to American travellers.We firmly believe that as long as travellers have the means and time,Europe w

35、ill remain a top destination,offering a rich tapestry of experiences that attract Americans year after year”,said Eduardo Santander,CEO/Executive Director,European Travel Commission(ETC).Jennifer Iduh(ETC Executive Unit)With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Committee 9 1.Tourism perfo

36、rmance summary 2024 Summary The European travel industry ended 2024 on a solid footing,with international arrivals ending the year at 6.2%above 2019 and nights 6.4%above,based on data from reporting destinations on the TourMIS platform.The outturn for arrivals is largely consistent with last quarter

37、,but the recovery in nights ended the year stronger than expected,up from 5.9%.Overall,this confirms the recovery that has been apparent in the data over the last few quarters.This also reflects an annual rise in both visitors and nights into Europe for the majority of destinations.At a regional lev

38、el,arrivals were up 6.2%and nights 5.2%on last year,marking a slight moderation in arrivals growth but an acceleration in nights compared to the previous report.This is a modest decline in length of stay,but the overall trend is still for longer stays since the pandemic.Foreign visits and overnights

39、 to select destinations(%relative to 2019)However,this implied increase in the average length of stay is not universally the case across all destinations in the region.On one side,arrivals to Malta,Poland,Slovakia and Latvia recovered at a faster pace than nights.-30-20-100102030SerbiaMaltaNetherlan

40、dsPortugalDenmarkTrkiyeNorwayGreeceIcelandLuxembourgItalySpainUKSloveniaSwedenMontenegroBulgariaBelgiumPolandFranceCyprusSwitzerlandAustriaCroatiaHungaryCzechiaMonacoGermanyRomaniaFinlandSlovakiaEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%c

41、hange relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,52%(N)Croatia,0%(A),0.7%(N)International travel to Europe officially exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2024.Arrivals and nights were up 6.2%and 6.4%respectively on 2019,based on the latest data from reporting destinations on the TourMIS platform.Length of stay remai

42、ns elevated as growth in nights continued to outpace arrivals at a regional level and among many destinations,although this moderated a little in 2024.As well as an implied change in the average length of stay relative to 2019,some destinations such as Spain have shown signs of extending their peak

43、summer season,with a higher share of arrivals during both May and October.The UK and Germany were common source markets driving the strength in Southern and Mediterranean Europe for a number of destinations,including Spain and Portugal.But smaller tourism hotspots such as Serbia and Montenegro have

44、been increasingly popular with long-haul source markets from the Asia/Pacific region.Among the destinations which did not achieve a full recovery in 2024,there were still signs of progress with rapid year-on-year improvement across both arrivals and nights.This is visible in Latvia,Lithuania,Estonia

45、,Slovakia and Germany where momentum continues to build,moving into 2025.10 Destinations in Southern and Mediterranean Europe continued to report some of the highest volume of visitors and nights compared to 2019.Tourists from the UK and Germany were key contributors to growth among some of these de

46、stinations,including Portugal,Trkiye,Spain and Malta.Among these,Spain was one of the most successful in extending its summer season,with the share of arrivals in May and October higher than pre-pandemic levels.The region also experienced significantly strong growth from smaller long-haul source mar

47、kets including China and India.However,Serbia remained the only European destination to welcome more Chinese tourists than prior to the pandemic.Montenegro has seen a large rise from India,benefiting from its appeal as a wedding destination,and from other markets further afield as it continues to in

48、crease the number of cruise ships passing through its ports.Nevertheless,across the board,and not just within Southern and Mediterranean Europe,the US remained the most valuable long-haul source market to Europe,with 90%of destinations reporting growth from this market.Key source market demand for E

49、uropean destinations,2024 Poland was one of the leading destinations within Central and Eastern Europe last year and saw arrivals pick up in the final quarter of 2024,relative to 2019,especially during October and December.This rise was driven by stronger growth across a number of significant source

50、 markets,including the UK,Italy and Germany.Growing demand has been supported by marketing efforts as well as the appeal of a milder climate and an offer of both coastal and city attractions.Despite nights having yet to recover,momentum has improved considerably over recent months.Although there are

51、 still a number of destinations that have yet to see visits or nights exceed pre-pandemic levels,including Germany,Lithuania,Latvia,Estonia and Slovakia,the recovery has been ongoing.They have all reported a positive year-on-year improvement on 2023 across both metrics.In all of these cases,arrivals

52、 ended the year closer to a full recovery than nights,implying a drop in length of stay.Among Central and Eastern European destinations,the ongoing geopolitical conflict is possibly a contributing factor to these shorter stays.While in Germany,demand among leisure travellers,who typically stay longe

53、r than those who visit for business,has remained subdued,as more visitors have looked towards sun,sea and sand destinations,taking advantage of package deals.-30-20-100102030GermanyItalyFranceUKUSACanada Australia BrazilIndiaJapanChinaDestinations reporting growthDestinations reporting fallsNet grow

54、th marketsSource:TourMIS,Tourism EconomicsNumber of destinations reportinggrowth in arrivals or night by origin,relative to 201911 Foreign visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)Looking at more recent performance,arrivals and nights across most reporting destinations in 2024

55、posted sizeable improvements on the previous year,and all destinations reported growth for the year.Several Central and Eastern European countries,including Latvia,Romania and Estonia,feature among the fastest growing destinations as they were still recovering to pre-pandemic levels and regaining ma

56、rket share.Elsewhere,demand for Nordic destinations such as Finland and Norway picked up ahead of many others in the region,perhaps benefiting from tourists seeking more moderate temperatures and natural beauty.But the cool-cations trend has not been to the detriment of destinations in Southern and

57、Mediterranean Europe that typically experience the highest temperatures.Malta,Serbia,Spain and Greece experienced growth ahead of the European average last year across all available metrics.For the most part,growth in arrivals exceeded nights across the region and most notably in the UK with arrival

58、s rising 11.0%on the year and nights rising by a smaller 5.0%.This is in contrast to Italy which experienced the opposite with nights(6.8%)growing significantly faster than arrivals(0.9%).Any moderation in length of stay does not unwind previous gains and,on average across the region,trips are still

59、 of longer duration than the pre-pandemic period.-5-3-113579111315MaltaHungaryLatviaRomaniaFinlandNorwaySerbiaPolandEstoniaUKSwedenSpainGreeceCzechiaSloveniaGermanyTrkiyeItalyLuxembourgIreland RepPortugalSwitzerlandLithuaniaCyprusNetherlandsBulgariaDenmarkAustriaSlovakiaBelgiumMonacoCroatiaIcelandFr

60、anceMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2024year-to-date*,%yearMalta,19.8%(A)Hungary,15.7%(A)12 Summary performance 2024,year to date%change relative to 2019 and 2023 Country%YTD vs.2019%YTD vs.2023to month%YTD vs.2019%YTD vs.2023to monthAustria1.0%4.2%Jan-Dec1.1

61、%2.5%Jan-DecBelgium3.0%3.7%Jan-Dec5.4%3.5%Jan-DecBulgaria5.6%4.9%Jan-DecCroatia0.0%2.6%Jan-Dec0.7%0.6%Jan-DecCyprus1.6%5.1%Jan-DecCzechia-3.8%9.6%Jan-Dec-6.3%9.0%Jan-DecDenmark16.8%4.8%Jan-DecEstonia-17.7%11.1%Jan-Dec-16.2%8.8%Jan-DecFinland-11.8%13.3%Jan-Dec-9.9%10.6%Jan-DecFrance3.3%1.0%Jan-Dec4.2

62、%1.5%Jan-DecGermany-5.4%7.9%Jan-Dec-5.3%5.5%Jan-DecGreece14.7%9.8%Jan-DecHungary-1.2%15.7%Jan-Dec-4.0%10.5%Jan-DecIceland13.9%2.2%Jan-DecIrish Rep.6.7%Jan-DecItaly5.3%0.9%Jan-Dec13.3%6.8%Jan-DecLatvia-18.4%14.3%Jan-Dec-26.2%10.2%Jan-DecLithuania-25.2%5.8%Jan-Dec-25.1%3.3%Jan-DecLuxembourg13.3%6.8%Ja

63、n-Dec13.8%5.6%Jan-DecMalta29.4%19.8%Jan-Dec18.5%13.2%Jan-DecMonaco-5.5%1.8%Jan-Dec-4.7%3.7%Jan-DecMontenegro-2.4%0.0%Jan-Dec7.6%-5.0%Jan-DecNetherlands5.9%5.0%Jan-Dec19.1%4.3%Jan-DecNorway12.1%Jan-Dec16.1%11.6%Jan-DecPoland5.4%11.3%Jan-Dec-1.6%8.1%Jan-DecPortugal18.1%6.3%Jan-Dec15.0%4.8%Jan-DecRoman

64、ia-10.7%13.5%Jan-Dec-6.3%10.6%Jan-DecSerbia29.1%11.7%Jan-Dec52.0%9.2%Jan-DecSlovakia-12.5%3.9%Jan-Dec-18.5%3.8%Jan-DecSlovenia7.5%8.5%Jan-Dec8.6%6.9%Jan-DecSpain12.3%10.1%Jan-Dec8.1%6.9%Jan-DecSweden8.0%10.8%Jan-DecSwitzerland1.4%6.3%Jan-Dec1.6%5.1%Jan-DecTrkiye16.8%7.0%Jan-DecUK4.0%11.0%Jan-Jun12.0

65、%5.0%Jan-JunMeasures used for nights and arrivals vary by country.Available data as of 10.04.2025Source:TourMIS(http:/www.tourmis.info)and VisitBritain(f)denotes forecast provided by memberInternational ArrivalsInternational Nights13 2.Tourism performance summary 2025 Summary International travel to

66、 Europe had an upbeat start to the year,with arrivals exceeding 2024 levels by 4.9%and nights by 2.2%,based on data from reporting destinations on the TourMIS platform for Q1(dates vary between destinations).This represents a 14.9%rise in visitors and 10.2%growth in nights on 2019 levels.Growth tend

67、s to be more volatile in Q1 due to lower volumes in most destinations and do not represent full-year growth,but this is still broadly consistent with expectations of continued growth of around 5%into the medium term.Foreign visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)Travel demand

68、 continued to build on the recovery experienced last year.27 out of 29 reporting destinations registered an increase in at least one metric when compared to the same months in 2024.Iceland and Croatia were-10-505101520LatviaLithuaniaHungaryPolandCyprusNorwaySlovakiaFinlandSerbiaMaltaLuxembourgRomani

69、aGreeceFranceDenmarkItalySwitzerlandEstoniaMontenegroSloveniaSpainPortugalMonacoBulgariaGermanyNetherlandsAustriaIcelandCroatiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearLatvia,27.8%(A),30.3%(N)Lithuania,28.4%(A)Croatia,-16.4%(A),-16.3%(N)Travel demand has

70、 maintained some of the momentum of last year,based on the latest data from the TourMIS platform.Initial data for the first quarter of this year indicates a strong rise in both international arrivals and nights into Europe,with visitor numbers up 4.9%and nights up 2.2%compared with last year.Unsurpr

71、isingly,many destinations with a strong winter tourism offering performed well at the start of this year,including Norway and Slovakia where early-year demand pushed both arrivals and nights considerably ahead of 2024 levels.Bulgaria and Romanias accession to being full Schengen area members at the

72、start of 2025 is providing some boost to cross-border travel with neighbouring countries,though many air travel gains have already been realised.Non-traditional winter getaways,such as Cyprus and Malta,reported record levels of activity at the start of this year.Possible reasons for this include mor

73、e tourists trying to avoid more overcrowded months.But travel volumes are still relatively low compared to the summer months when demand typically peaks.Strong arrivals from the UK to a number of destinations in Europe have been supported by a continued favourable GBP/Euro exchange rate.Value for mo

74、ney remains a key consideration for tourists going into this year.For many destinations,Q1 is not classed as peak-season but prices for tourism-related goods and services are already higher than they were in 2024.With heightened uncertainty,and potentially higher prices coming in as a result of the

75、US tariffs,tourists may further prioritise affordability.14 the only two exceptions,with some very different dynamics,but both are apparently seeing some subdued demand due to higher costs.Only six destinations are still yet to recover pre-pandemic levels of visits and nights in the first quarter of

76、 2025.However,it is worth noting that the sample of destinations with data is slightly smaller than the outturn for last year.For some destinations,the early-year improvement may soften as demand for more coastal rather than winter destinations rise.Italy has been found to be one of the best value-f

77、or-money ski destinations during the 2024/25 winter season in the latest Post Office Travel Money Ski Resort Report.This could be a contributing factor to arrivals and nights growth so far this year relative to other winter skiing destinations,including Austria and Switzerland.However,it is lagging

78、the growth to France for this year to date.Among the Nordics,competitive prices for ski passes and equipment hire in Norway is likely to have attracted some longer stays over the winter season,with nights now 15.3%above 2024 and more than a third higher than 2019 levels for the same months.Both Latv

79、ia and Lithuania demonstrated markedly improved performances in the early months of the year but this is in comparison with reduced levels of visitation in 2024.Riga,the capital of Latvia is emerging as a growing destination for tourists from Lithuania,Estonia,the UK and Germany.Its popularity could

80、 be rising following being announced as the second best European destination for 2025 by“European Best Destinations”.This indicates a significant return in travel confidence in this sub-region where a slower recovery to 2019 levels has been evident so far.Both destinations have been affected by war

81、in Ukraine.This dynamic is also evident in the improved performances of both Hungary and Poland.Elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe,nights in Slovakia are up 14.6%on 2024,with visitor numbers also up 14.3%.It has not just been winter destinations performing well in the early period of this year,

82、as Cyprus recorded a 15.4%increase in arrivals during January and February compared to the same period last year.Malta has also performed strongly with arrivals up 12.6%.What Malta Tourism Authority have described as exceptional growth can be attributed to the benefits from increased investment in a

83、ir connectivity and capacity,which included additional flights to both Ireland and Poland.This is consistent with the cool-cations trend as travellers are increasingly trying to avoid travel during the warmest months,while destinations are aiming to diversify tourism products to develop the industry

84、 during off-peak months.Spain has continued to build on last years momentum,with foreign arrivals exceeding 10 million in the first two months of the year.This is the equivalent of 673,000 more visitors than the same time in 2024 and 1.9 million more compared to 2019.Tourists from France and the UK

85、have been key drivers of growth,possibly as they try to avoid periods of overcrowding.The strong start to the year is encouraging given the challenges that the travel sector has faced so far,including strikes by airline staff which led to 700 cancelled flights in January,and heavy rain storms causin

86、g flooding and evacuations in areas including Seville and the province of Malaga.There is a risk that adverse weather conditions may dampen tourism demand in affected areas,as recent data has shown a slight dip in arrivals to Valencia,which experienced extreme flooding towards the end of last year.V

87、alue for money continues to play a role in destination choice and can partially explain some of the early variations in travel activity.Prices for tourism-related goods and services have remained significantly higher than prior to the pandemic and have increased significantly since the same months i

88、n 2024 for most categories.Domestic flights are cheaper,on average,than a year ago but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.Domestic and international package holiday costs have reportedly increased the most,up 12%and 10%respectively compared to last year.This rise is more than double the rise repo

89、rted for the service sector as a whole(4%).For most,if not all destinations,January and February do not reflect the months with the highest prices,and with uncertainty rising with the arrival of US tariffs,tourists may continue to seek out better deals as the year progresses.Croatia has experienced

90、some higher-than-average price increases since adopting the euro as its currency in 2023,especially relative to some other Mediterranean destinations.This may partly explain the falls in arrivals and nights in early 2025,but this is a period with low activity and the volatility is not likely to be r

91、epresentative of full-year performance.15 Euro area inflation,seasonally adjusted,HICP definition Growing demand from the UK has been a notable contribution to the stronger arrivals reported by many destinations so far this year and can be partly attributed to the more favourable exchange rate.The S

92、terling has continued to strengthen against the euro in Q1 2025 compared to both last year and prior to the pandemic,making many destinations more affordable to British tourists.This is mirrored by the euro/US$exchange rate over the same period,which may support continued US travel demand.However,th

93、ere has been increased volatility in this currency pairing towards the end of Q1 and into April following US trade policy announcements and adds to the uncertainty in the outlook.US exchange rate against selected European currencies Bulgaria and Romania became full members of the Schengen Area on Ja

94、nuary 1st 2025,which means the removal of land border checks for arrivals from other member countries,and this follows the removal of air and sea border controls from March 31st 2024.Full membership is seemingly already providing some uplift in arrivals from nearby source markets and should provide

95、a boost throughout the year.Croatia provides an example of the potential gains from full membership.Since it became a full member at the start of 2023,the share of arrivals from neighbouring countries,Slovenia and Hungary has risen.Among the newest 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Jan-Feb 2024Jan-Feb 2025Sour

96、ce:HaverAnalytics (Int.=international,Dom.=domestic)%relativeto 20191,150,881,170,921,20,950,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,4Euro per Pound(GBP)Euro per US$2019 Q12024 Q12025 Q1Source:HaverAnalytics/Tourism Economics%relativeto 201916 members,Romania should see the greatest potential uplift in coming years as

97、 the share of arrivals by road are estimated to be larger for Romania(84.0%)than Bulgaria(64.2%)last year.But there is some upside for Bulgaria,as the share of arrivals to Europe attributed to Schengen-member bordering countries to Bulgaria(17.7%)was slightly higher than Romania(11.3%)in 2024.Intern

98、ational arrivals to Croatia from bordering Schengen member areas(%share)8,7%3,5%9,3%4,1%9,4%4,3%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%SloveniaHungary201920232024Source:TourMIS%shareof total foreign arrivals to Croatia(YTD,Jan-Dec)17 Summary performance 2025,year to date%change relative to 2019 and 2024 Country%YTD

99、 vs.2019%YTD vs.2024to month%YTD vs.2019YTD%vs.2024to monthAustria4.0%0.5%Jan-Feb0.8%-3.5%Jan-FebBulgaria40.7%1.4%Jan-FebCroatia-10.0%-16.4%Jan-Mar8.6%-16.3%Jan-MarCyprus31.1%15.4%Jan-FebDenmark15.2%9.6%Jan-JanEstonia-8.2%8.1%Jan-Feb-11.8%3.7%Jan-FebFinland4.3%13.9%Jan-Feb5.9%10.0%Jan-FebFrance12.9%

100、11.3%Jan-Jan16.8%9.3%Jan-JanGermany-13.6%1.3%Jan-Jan-14.5%-2.4%Jan-JanGreece24.5%11.4%Jan-JanHungary17.3%18.2%Jan-Jan11.7%12.8%Jan-JanIceland-7.1%-5.7%Jan-FebItaly11.7%9.6%Jan-Jan18.2%8.0%Jan-JanLatvia-15.0%27.8%Jan-Jan-23.1%30.3%Jan-JanLithuania5.2%28.4%Jan-Feb-5.7%13.5%Jan-FebLuxembourg-14.2%11.3%

101、Jan-Jan-13.7%12.1%Jan-JanMalta52.0%12.6%Jan-Jan23.7%11.4%Jan-JanMonaco-11.0%0.8%Jan-Mar-9.3%2.4%Jan-MarMontenegro29.3%7.8%Jan-Feb99.3%-9.7%Jan-FebNetherlands2.8%0.8%Jan-Feb18.2%-2.0%Jan-FebNorway13.2%Jan-Feb36.2%15.3%Jan-FebPoland21.8%16.2%Jan-Jan10.9%13.6%Jan-JanPortugal25.1%2.7%Jan-Feb18.3%-0.1%Ja

102、n-FebRomania-4.0%11.7%Jan-Jan5.5%10.1%Jan-JanSerbia62.1%10.3%Jan-Feb94.8%13.6%Jan-FebSlovakia12.1%14.3%Jan-Jan3.7%14.6%Jan-JanSlovenia10.0%7.1%Jan-Feb2.2%2.6%Jan-FebSpain22.0%6.9%Jan-Feb15.8%4.2%Jan-FebSwitzerland8.9%8.3%Jan-Feb5.9%4.5%Jan-FebTrkiye35.3%0.0%Jan-FebInternational ArrivalsInternational

103、 NightsSources:TourMIS(http:/www.tourmis.info)and VisitBritain(f)denotes forecast provided by memberMeasures used for nights and arrivals vary by country.Available data as of 11.04.202518 3.Global tourism forecast summary Tourism Economics global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound

104、 basis in the following table.These are the results of the Global Travel Service(GTS)model,which is updated in detail three times per year.Forecasts are consistent with Oxford Economics macroeconomic outlook according to estimated relationships between tourism and the wider economy.Full origin-desti

105、nation country detail is available online to subscribers.GTS visitor growth forecasts,%change year-on-year 2022202320242025202620222023202420252026data/estimate/forecast*defffdefffWorld102.6%36.6%14.3%10.0%8.5%107.2%37.7%14.5%9.8%8.6%Americas89.2%27.1%8.0%0.7%6.2%95.9%32.6%9.3%2.6%6.0%North America7

106、8.2%24.3%8.4%-2.5%6.0%84.3%31.7%9.7%1.4%5.5%Caribbean51.3%17.8%5.2%6.3%5.3%94.1%20.8%7.0%6.4%7.2%Central&South America209.7%43.5%8.4%6.3%7.2%171.9%37.8%8.1%7.6%8.0%Europe92.0%18.8%10.4%8.3%6.0%101.0%19.6%9.9%8.0%6.4%ETC+2101.0%18.1%9.9%7.1%5.5%107.1%18.3%9.6%7.3%5.8%EU 27106.8%18.7%9.6%7.0%5.2%109.6

107、%18.5%9.6%7.2%5.7%Non-EU45.2%19.3%14.0%14.2%9.2%62.4%25.7%11.6%12.7%9.8%Northern 203.8%17.7%11.1%5.5%4.2%226.5%19.3%9.1%6.6%6.0%Western 93.6%22.0%3.7%5.9%5.0%83.2%16.4%8.0%7.2%5.6%Southern/Mediterranean90.0%16.5%10.7%6.9%5.2%110.0%21.9%10.3%7.4%6.2%Central/Eastern 41.2%20.4%23.6%19.4%10.7%57.0%25.5%

108、14.8%10.6%7.5%-Central&Baltic92.3%17.5%22.4%10.6%6.4%79.0%20.6%16.5%7.9%5.3%Asia&the Pacific233.9%173.5%33.0%19.7%14.2%200.1%177.6%34.8%20.2%14.7%North East55.1%417.9%47.0%20.9%13.3%89.5%372.0%46.3%23.8%15.9%South East1216.5%136.2%24.9%19.7%16.1%426.0%105.9%22.1%16.9%14.1%South99.6%16.1%11.2%13.1%12

109、.5%174.6%48.9%19.2%12.5%12.6%Oceania827.9%93.1%16.9%17.6%11.2%787.3%74.5%13.3%10.4%7.6%Africa89.3%37.0%15.3%11.9%7.8%100.5%42.8%15.1%13.8%10.7%Middle East157.8%38.1%8.5%11.5%13.5%126.9%25.9%9.1%8.6%9.4%*Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional

110、 flows*Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations*data is the final historical numbers available.Estimates are using high frequency indicatorsThe geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is

111、 Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Central&Baltic Europe is Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,and Slovakia;ETC+2 is all ETC members plus Sweden,and the United KingdomSource:Tourism Economics based on GTS as of 27.03.2025Inbou

112、nd*Outbound*Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Turkey;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Li

113、thuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine;19 4.Recent industry performance 3.1 Air transport European air passenger demand grew robustly at the end of 2024 and into 2025,relative to the same months of 2019.While growth in January ticked downwards slightly,revenue passeng

114、er kilometres(RPK)were still 8.2%higher compared to January 2019 and 8.6%higher compared to January 2024.This performance followed strong growth in December when demand was 8.5%higher compared to December 2019 and 8.6%higher compared to December 2023.International air passenger growth(%),Europe Regi

115、onal Air Passenger Outlook:In recent months,European air passenger demand has been growing at a slightly slower rate compared to other global regions with the exceptions of Asia/Pacific markets.Markets in Asia/Pacific have performed erratically in recent months compared to the same months in 2019:de

116、mand in October and December was lower,while demand in November and January was higher.Growth in January was the strongest of the four most recent months;some of this growth could be linked to the Chinese New Year which fell at the end of the month.The Chinese New Year typically leads to a surge in

117、demand in the lead up to the holiday period,with many people travelling to spend time with family.There was also a strong uptick in demand growth in Africa and the Middle East in January.The Chinese New Year concluded,and Ramadan began in February this year,which is likely to have caused a further u

118、ptick in growth in demand in regions where these events are celebrated,but data are not fully available to view this yet.-100-80-60-40-20020Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sept-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sept-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sept-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sept-24Nov-24Jan-25%change vs.2

119、019,RPKTotal3mth mavSource:IATA20 International monthly air passenger growth(%change)Between 2010-19,growth in European air passenger demand outpaced growth in air passenger capacity(4.3%vs.4.0%on average per annum respectively).This dynamic meant that there was a sustained increase in passenger loa

120、d factors.In recent months,European load factor has been trending above 2019 levels.In November and December,European load factors were 85%and 86.5%respectively record high values.There was a slight downturn in January when load factors hit 79.3%,which is slightly below the 2019 level.This is due to

121、 some more rapid capacity growth during the month,but this appears to be an exception.Perpetual delays in new aircraft deliveries as well as the lack of workshop capacity to maintain,repair,or overhaul active aircraft have contributed to these high load factors,particularly since the pandemic.Presid

122、ent Trumps on-again,off-again tariff policy is likely to further delay aircraft manufacture and delivery,which could exacerbate high load factors in the near term.International passenger load factor,Europe This growth in available seat kilometres(ASK),however,is not reflected in European flight volu

123、mes data.According to Eurocontrol,European flight volumes were 4.6%lower across December 2024 to February 2025 compared to the same months in 2019.While this dataset is not directly comparable to supply data provided by IATA(i.e.,ASK),the inverse relationship between the two could imply that,in orde

124、r to boost seat capacity,airlines have done so through the reconfiguration of existing aircraft(i.e.,more seats per aircraft)or by deploying larger aircraft in order to compensate for less frequent aircraft movements.-10-505101520AfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastN.America%change vs.20

125、19,RPKOct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Source:IATA4045505560657075808590Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sept-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sept-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sept-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sept-24Nov-24Jan-25%load factorTotal3mth mav2019Source:IATA21 At country level,the story is not necessarily

126、the same with several countries reporting an increase in flight volumes in the last three months(December 2024 to February 2025),albeit more countries have reported a reduction in flight volumes compared to those that have(20 vs.13).Serbia reported the largest increase in flight volumes which were 2

127、9%higher compared to the same period in 2019.Cyprus reported an increase of 28.4%.In both cases,growth over the last three months ticked upwards compared to the three-month period prior(September-November 2024).This growth could be linked to some redirection of Russian travel demand;despite EU sanct

128、ions on Russian flights,there has been a notable increase in Russian tourists visiting Cyprus,with Serbia serving as a key transit point for flights.Cyprus was a popular destination for Russian tourists before the sanctions,and while direct flights are limited,indirect routes through Serbia have bee

129、n established.European air traffic by country,total flights arriving and departing 3.2 Accommodation At a global level,hotel performance has generally improved compared to the same quarter last year.On a regional level,all hotel metrics,including occupancy,ADR and RevPAR reported a positive year-on-

130、year growth in Q1/2025,apart from occupancy rates in Asia/Pacific which were-1.1%down on the same time in 2024.That said,occupancy growth overall was the slowest among the metrics for all regions,not just in Asia/Pacific.Global Outlook:The Americas reported positive growth across occupancy(0.3%),ADR

131、(2.0%)and RevPAR(2.4%)on last quarter,with RevPAR largely driven by a stronger increase in ADR than occupancy.The upswing from Central and South America continues as the luxury segment thrives,despite increased competition from alternative lodging options.The US hotel industry is citing concerns wit

132、h demand,which are expected to worsen as a result of weaker consumer spending,a drop in international inbound travel and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administrations retaliatory tariffs.Despite a slowdown in occupancy growth in Asia/Pacific,compared to Q4 2024,ADR rates have risen significantly

133、(from 0.7%to 6.1%),contributing to a stronger outturn in RevPAR(up 4.9%from 1.1%).Stronger ADR may stem from the continued growth of luxury travel across APAC as wealth within the region increases,with individuals willing to spend on high-end trips and seeking unique,culturally immersive travel expe

134、riences.SerbiaCyprusMaltaGreeceCroatiaHungarySpainTrkiyeBulgariaPortugalPolandItalyMontenegroRomaniaIrelandNetherlandsSwitzerlandLithuaniaBelgiumUKFranceCzech Rep.NorwayLuxembourgDenmarkSlovakiaAustriaEstoniaFinlandLatviaGermanySloveniaSwedenTotal*-40-30-20-10010203040latest rolling 3 month average

135、vs.same period 2019pp improvement vs.previous rolling 3 month averageSource:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flights22 Hotel occupancy in the Middle East and Africa was slightly up on last year(0.6%),but this reflects a decrease on last quarter(1.2%).Despite this,the region continued to experience a re

136、surgence in both ADR and RevPAR,with growth ahead of all other regions.Government initiatives to drive tourism growth as well as increased number of luxury accommodations may be contributing to stronger outturn in hotel pricing and revenue.European hotel performance has lost some momentum going into

137、 2025,reporting modest growth across all metrics compared to the same period last year.Although year-on-year growth remains positive,hotel pricing power has been limited as both ADR and RevPAR growth lags all other regions and this trend is evident across all sub-regions of Europe.Global hotel perfo

138、rmance Short-term rentals With nearly 4.4 million short-term rental units as of February 2025,Europe experienced roughly 5.9%year-over-year(YOY)supply growth,approximately 243,000 more short-term rental units than in February 2024.Since the last issuance of this report,which included Lighthouses sho

139、rt-term rental data as of November 2024,Europes short-term rental supply has been stable,increasing by just 0.06%,or 3,000 properties.Short-term rental supply across Europe,Feb 2025 vs Feb 2024 France continues to have Europes highest short-term rental supply.With 6.5%year-on-year growth since Febru

140、ary 2024,Frances capacity has been growing at a faster clip than Europes aggregate 5.9%growth.As of February 2024,-20246810Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-Mar year-to-date,%change year ago-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%AlbaniaNorwayPolandFinlandSerbiaBulgariaCzec

141、hiaSwedenDenmarkGermanyHungaryRomaniaGreeceNetherlandsBelgiumSwitzerlandIrelandFranceGeorgiaSpainPortugalAustriaUkraineUKCroatiaItalyTrkiyePercentage change in short-termrental unitsSource:Lighthouse23 the country had yet to cross the 1 million property milestone.A year later,in February 2025,its 1.

142、02 million short-term rental properties represent 23.3%of Europes total short-term rental supply.In terms of countries experiencing the most significant short-term rental supply growth and focusing on larger markets with a minimum of 60,000 short-term rental units,Norways 64,000 units as of February

143、 2025 represents an approximate 28%YOY increase from February 2024.Poland similarly experienced over 20%YOY growth during the same time period,with its 28,000 unit growth in absolute terms representing the 3rd largest increase in Europe,behind only France and Germany.Of all European countries with a

144、t least 2,000 short-term rental units,Italy and Trkiye were the only ones to experience supply decreases.Italy,Europes second-largest short-term rental supply market with 13.4%of the regions listings,experienced a year-over-year decline of 0.9%since February 2024.This is notable given the ban on unm

145、anned self check-ins announced at the end of last year,with February 2025 being the first month in recent history with YOY supply declines in the country.Italys decrease seems almost trivial in comparison to Trkiyes 24.5%year-over-year supply decline.With more strict guidelines and regulations for s

146、hort-term rentals in Trkiye going into effect in January 2024,it is perhaps not surprising to see such a significant year-over-year decrease in supply since then.From an ADR perspective,at a macro level,the European average monthly median ADR through TTM(Trailing Twelve Months)February 2025 was appr

147、oximately 113,which represents a YOY increase of approximately 8.3%from the average monthly median ADR of 105 through TTM February 2024.At a country level,the short-term rental supply decrease experienced by Trkiye had an inverse effect on its average monthly median ADR,with TTM February 2025 ADR in

148、creasing by nearly 39%year-on-year.That said,it should be noted that despite this significant YOY growth,on an absolute level,Trkiyes average monthly median ADR of 91 as of TTM February 2025 is on the lower-end of the range of country-level ADRs in Europe.24 5.Key themes Most figures shared in this

149、section relate to Oxford Economics and Tourism Economics current outlook and downside scenario modelling.Summary 4.1 Special focus:Rising global uncertainty and what this means for travel In a year that was previously expected to bring about a 13%rise in global international visitors and tourism spe

150、nd(Tourism Economics,December 2024),policies and pronouncements from the second Trump administration have resulted in a substantial setback not just for US travel,but for global travel.The current outlook by Tourism Economics included tariffs and retaliatory measures that were either largely expecte

151、d and/or planned(see appendix 4),which would have led to a slower rise in global arrivals(10%)and spend(9.9%).But following the Liberation Day announcement on April 2nd,tariffs went far beyond what the market had expected.More recently,the situation changed again,with an announced 90-day pause on ta

152、riffs for countries apart from China,which will now see an even higher rate of tariffs,while there is considerable uncertainty in the rate that will be applied to some electronic and pharmaceutical goods.As a result,the latest global forecasts can be considered more as a best-case scenario under the

153、 current backdrop.Under this best-case outlook,inbound arrivals to the US are expected to drop by 9.4%,made up of a 20%decrease in tourists from Canada,an 8%drop from Mexico and 4%fewer tourists from elsewhere overseas,which includes tourists from Europe.Heightened uncertainty is a prominent feature

154、 in the global economy following recent policy announcements by the new US government.Global growth is expected to soften in 2025 across all economies impacted by either additional or higher import tariffs,as well as in the US itself.Tourism Economics expect a 9%fall in inbound arrivals to the US th

155、is year as travel sentiment has tumbled,but there is a high probability that travel growth will be weaker given more recent policy announcements.Tariffs that were announced on April 2nd went far beyond all prior expectations based on reasonable reciprocal tariff rates.Europe is expected to see sligh

156、tly fewer US tourists this year,but weaker economic growth across the region might spur an additional rise in short-haul and domestic travel for affordability reasons or as an alternative to long-haul travel to the US.Differences in source market mix and the severity of the tariffs on consumer spend

157、ing can account for some of the variations among destinations.Value for money remains an important consideration and has potentially supported shorter stays in European destinations in the first few months of this year,as well as higher demand for more affordable destinations.On top of this,the indu

158、stry continues to face consistent financial challenges,in particular from the cost of doing business.But in the near-term,many destinations will have to tackle rising travel volumes over Easter and into the shoulder season at a time when strike action is planned among rail and air travel operators.2

159、5 International travel arrivals growth,2025 Recent data suggests that negative sentiment towards the US has started to impact destination choices.Arrivals from Europe fell by 15.9%on the year in March,resulting in 6.0%fewer tourists from Europe visiting the US so far this year.However,it is importan

160、t to note that some of the weakness in March could be due to a shift in the Easter period.Unfavourable sentiment is expected to be sustained by an evolving mix of Trump Administrations factors,including geopolitical friction on trade and national security policies as well as charged rhetoric and uni

161、lateral posturing.High visibility border security and immigration enforcement actions are also expected to sow uncertainty and discourage visits.The negative impact on international travel to the US is currently likely to be strongest in 2025 in terms of the impact on performance,but it will likely

162、persist to some degree through the remainder of Trumps second term.Inbound arrivals to the US from select European markets,Q1 2025 Changes in US government policy are expected to impact global travel through two main channels.First,via slower outbound travel from North America,and second from weaker

163、 economic outlook for countries facing new or rising US tariffs,putting a strain on discretionary consumer spending.A decrease in tourism demand from the North American market is significant for global travel since it accounted for 13%of global travel prior to the pandemic,with 9%from the US alone.I

164、n Europe,long-haul travel represented 15%of total visitors last year and US tourists made up just over a third of these long-haul visits.In addition,countries facing higher or new tariffs on goods sold to the US will face weaker exports,slower economic growth and potentially higher prices,weighing o

165、n household income and consumer spending which could soften growth in intra-regional travel.12,9%8,8%16,9%27,1%9,9%10,0%-9,4%5,0%24,3%8,3%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%WorldUSCanadaChinaEuropeDec-24Apr-25Source:Tourism Economics baseline forecast%year-on-year19%10%2%0%-3%-3%-6%-6%-10%-10%-11%-12%-14

166、%-16%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%Source:I-94/ADIS%change y/y(Mar 2025 YTD)26 Economic growth for this year has softened between December 2024 and March 2025 and a key change is the incorporation of the tariffs found in appendix 4.However,there is a risk that the impact of these on GDP could be ev

167、en greater,which is illustrated by the growth under the downside scenario.But this does not reflect the extent of the tariffs announced in early April,suggesting economic growth could be even weaker than this.Global GDP and regional breakdown for 2025 However,since these forecasts were produced,ther

168、e is now a higher likelihood for a recession in some key markets as a result of the tariffs imposed by the US.This is especially notable in Canada given the larger reliance on trade with its neighbour.Currently,under the downside scenario,economic growth in Canada would slow to just 0.9%in 2025,but

169、there is a real possibility that the economy could shrink in size this year.This would put a large strain on household income and discretionary spending,key drivers of travel growth.It is a similar case for Germany,where growth is currently expected to decline under the baseline,and there is now pot

170、ential for an even stronger decline.Incomes will be hit harder in Germany than in some other European destinations because of the larger share of manufacturing within the total economy with around 20%of household incomes linked to this sector.International arrivals to select European destinations fo

171、r 2025 On the whole,risks to both economic and travel growth are skewed to the downside this year.Given recent announcements,Tourism Economics current downside case is arguably a more reliable outlook.A larger impact from tariffs would mean the recovery in international travel would slow significant

172、ly in 2025,from 12.3%above to just 6.7%above 2019 levels in the current downside view.2,8%1,4%2,5%3,9%3,8%4,0%2,6%1,1%2,0%3,9%3,9%4,0%2,4%1,0%1,7%3,6%3,7%3,8%0,0%0,5%1,0%1,5%2,0%2,5%3,0%3,5%4,0%4,5%WorldEuropeAmericasAsiaAfricaMiddle EastDec-24 baseline forecastMar-25 baseline forecastMar-25 downsid

173、e scenarioSource:Oxford Economics/Tourism Economics%year-on-year-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%SerbiaMaltaTrkiyePortugalIcelandNorwayDenmarkGreeceMontenegroSpainBulgariaSloveniaPolandFranceNetherlandsCyprusAustriaSwitzerlandItalyCroatiaSlovakiaFinlandEstoniaGermanyRomaniaLatviaLithuaniaBaselineDownsideSource

174、:Tourism Economics%relative to 201927 At a country level,overseas arrivals to Germany would take longer to recover,with arrivals dropping to 5%below 2019 levels by the end of this year(down from-2%below).Similar protracted recovery are expected for Romania,Latvia and Lithuania.In addition to this,a

175、materialisation of these downside risks would reverse the expected recovery this year across several destinations,including Slovakia,Finland and Estonia,while putting the travel recovery in jeopardy for Switzerland and Italy.On the other hand,destinations that are already firmly back in growth terri

176、tory going into 2025 should expect to see slower growth but remain comfortably ahead of pre-pandemic volumes.However,against the backdrop of increased protectionism and weaker economic growth,there are some opportunities within the European travel sector.These include a possible boost to both domest

177、ic and short-haul travel within Europe,arising from households having a smaller travel budget as well as a flight to the safety of closer to home destinations.There is also an opportunity to gain market share from both short-and long-haul source markets due to avoidance of the US over concerns with

178、border security or due to negative sentiment.This was evident during Trumps first term when the US share of Chinese long-haul demand dropped while Europe gained.Currency shifts and relative affordability had some impact on that shift in market share,but the swings went well beyond what would have be

179、en expected from that alone.4.2 The value of European tourism The latest estimate for 2025 suggests that tourists are expected to spend roughly 14%more across Europe than they did in 2024,with spending growth expected to outpace arrivals,suggesting an increase in the average spend per visit.Recent r

180、eports have suggested that tourists in a number of destinations are starting to spend more going into this year.One example comes from Spain,where spending rose by 8.3%on the year in January and February,faster than the 6.9%rise in international visitors.However,this is unlikely to be the case acros

181、s all destinations as consumers become more budget-focused.This is particularly evident for long-haul tourists visiting the region,as identified in the latest ETC long-haul barometer.Despite tighter spending budgets from those travelling further afield,it is expected that most of the money spent in

182、Europe will be directed towards food and drink,tourist activities and retail.Average length of stay in selected European destinations,2025 Overseas tourists spent an average of 2.7 nights per stay in Europe so far this year,based on the latest reporting data from TourMIS.At a country-level,compared

183、to the same period in 2024,tourists are generally staying for fewer nights across many European destinations,and this is not concentrated in just one sub-region.Shorter tourist breaks earlier in the year can be expected,compared to the summer period where more households take extended breaks during

184、the school holidays.In contrast,Croatia and Latvia are reporting an implied longer average length of stay so far this year.1,9%1,6%-1,8%-2,3%-2,6%-2,9%-3,3%-3,7%-4,3%-4,3%-4,3%-9,9%-10,4%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%relativeto 2024Sources:Haver/National Statistics/Tourism Economics*date varies(Jan-Feb)

185、by destination28 4.3 Risks Tourism Economics Tourism Industry Monitor(TIM)survey gauges industry professionals evaluation of the overall health of tourism globally,as well as its opportunities and challenges.The latest results from the Q1 2025 survey identified a significantly weaker economic sentim

186、ent,with almost two-thirds of tourism experts developing a negative view on the economy over the past three months.However,there was a continuation in the overall positive outlook for tourism as there were strong levels of confidence in growth,although short and medium-term expectations were notably

187、 lower.In addition,respondents now think that travel budgets will be squeezed in 2025 as fewer expected that travel would account for an increased share of disposable income compared with last years survey results.Top 4 key global tourism challenges There has been some movement among the top global

188、challenges to tourism this year.Financial pressures remain a key challenge(mentioned by over 80%)but they eased slightly compared with last quarter.In contrast,concerns regarding bureaucracy,regulation,and trade policy were more prominent,along with the concern over fewer long-haul international vis

189、itors.These were likely influenced by recent global trade announcements by the US administration.Top 4 key European tourism challenges Challenges facing European businesses do differ from the global picture,which is skewed by more US respondents.Fewer respondents highlighted the cost of flights and

190、accommodation as key challenges to European tourism in the 17%42%59%55%26%34%48%52%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Fewer long-haul visitorsStaffing issuesIncreasing cost of businessCost of accommodationQ1 2025Q4 2024%reportedin top risksSource:Tourism Economics51%51%69%57%30%50%50%63%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%8

191、0%Cost of flightsStaffing issuesCost of accommodationIncreasing costs of businessQ1 2025Q4 2024%reportedin top risksSource:Tourism Economics29 recent survey,marking a considerable drop on last quarter.However,these financial pressures are still a concern in the form of increasing cost of business.St

192、affing issues remain a consistent challenge,and this is likely heightened in destinations which experience higher levels of strikes by various airline and air traffic staff.There were a number of strikes in the transport industry over the first quarter of this year,including in Germany,Italy and Bel

193、gium.But during the Easter period where travel volumes are generally higher than in January and February,these strikes have the potential to disrupt a larger number of tourists across various countries in Europe.There are also risks stemming from adverse weather conditions and natural disasters that

194、 could divert tourists to alternative destinations or possibly delay booking trips to these areas.For example,flooding and storms in both Spain and the UK and the earthquake that hit Naples in March.30 6.European travel sentiment tracker E-Reputation trends on travel in Europe E-Reputation data,gath

195、ered from the TRAVELSAT Sentiment Index by MMGY TCI Research,utilises social listening to assess destinations online perception.Information shared by differing media,consumers,companies etc.,on websites,forums,blogs&social networks is used.Net sentiment scores,ranging from-100 to+100,measure the bal

196、ance between positive and negative sentiments to evaluate destination favourability.Value for Money and Sustainable Travel ratings are measured through sentiment scores derived from written reviews from 45 sources(TripAdvisor,Google Reviews,B),utilising advanced sentiment analysis technology to dete

197、ct positive and negative sentiments towards specific concepts or topics,with ratings,ranging from 0 to 10.For a further explanation of these methodologies please see Appendix 2.Throughout the first quarter of 2025,the polarity of online social conversations regarding European travel stood at an aver

198、age of 36 points(-16 pts.vs.Q4 2024).Europes score remained largely unchanged in January 2025,yet saw a considerable drop in February,followed by a similar one in March.Overall,Europe fell from the leading spot in global e-reputation scores in Q4 of 2024,to averaging second place in Q1 of 2025,being

199、 6 points behind Asia Pacific.Notably,the Americas experiences a sharp drop in score since the start of 2025.Strict controls at the US border,coupled with a reduced perception of safety,and the potential inflationary effects tied to the Trump administrations policies have all served to deteriorate t

200、he USs image as a travel destination.Net sentiment score per world region,P12M Nature-oriented travel stood out as a prominent theme in online conversations throughout the first quarter of 2025.The start of the year saw alpine destinations frequently featured,with online stories capturing the serene

201、 beauty of destinations like Zermatt in Switzerland,home to the highest cable car station in Europe.Highlighting a different facet of the mountainous region,Lake Como in Italy was presented as a tranquil winter retreat,with scenic lakeside views and excellent cuisine.As spring arrived,nature-themed

202、content highlighted Europes blooming biodiversity.In France,the Loire Valley was praised for its rich natural heritage and as home to the last wild river in Western Europe,free from human intervention and retaining its natural state.Similarly,Croatias Kopaki Rit National Park emerged in online conte

203、nt as a vast wetland offering wildlife observation,including wild boars and bison.On Mallorca,travellers shared stunning photographs of the almond blossoms in full bloom,adding to the seasons charm.Much like the previous quarter,several festivities continued to shape Europes positive image,with cont

204、ent showing how diverse and vibrant the continents celebrations are.Januarys stories focused on unique Mardi Gras traditions in the Balkans,including floats and folk music in Montenegro,Croatia,and Albania.Meanwhile,Lunar-40-200204060Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sept-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-2

205、5Mar-25EuropeAmericasAfricaMiddle EastAsia PacificQ12025Europe Q1 2025 average=36(-16pts.vs.Q4 2024)Source:MMGY TCI Research31 New Year celebrations in London,Paris,and Berlin were praised for their rich cultural showcases.February extended this theme,with Venices masked Carnival balls,Nices floral

206、parades,and the historic Gilles performers in Binche all taking the spotlight in online conversations.Viennas Rainbow Ball and the Berlinale Film Festival in Berlin also generated positive content,promoting themes of inclusivity and cultural prestige.A third topic that surfaced related to indulgent

207、travel experiences,particularly those focused on self-care.Oslos floating sauna,Trosten,was brought forward for its inclusive design,making it accessible to those with mobility impairments.Lithuania was recognised with the ITB Health Tourism Award,thanks to its blend of natural remedies and modern t

208、reatments.Italys Palazzo Fiuggi also appeared in several posts,applauded not only for its luxurious spa offer but also for its picturesque setting in a medieval town.Finally,online stories celebrated Europes diverse street food,with Viennas Wrstelstnde hailed as a must-try,and Belfasts new street fo

209、od market acclaimed for revitalising the area with artisanal vendors.Lisbon also appeared frequently in food-related content,especially for Sumol and the iconic Pastis de Belm.Transport disruptions dominated negative online conversations throughout the quarter.Severe winter weather in January caused

210、 flight delays and cancellations in airports across the UK and Germany,with major hubs such as Manchester and Munich Airport particularly affected.February followed with several transport strikes across the continent.A 24-hour strike by air traffic controllers in Greece grounded all flights,while un

211、ion actions in Germany created chaos at airports such as Dsseldorf and Cologne-Bonn.March saw a fire near Heathrow cause power outages,grounding over a thousand flights,while national strikes in Belgium and Germany brought national air and rail travel to a halt.Much content focused on the large-scal

212、e demonstrations held in Athens to mark the anniversary of a tragic train collision,which had occurred at the end of February 2024.The protests,though peaceful in many areas,brought renewed attention to safety concerns in the countrys transport infrastructure and public spaces.Lastly,actions taken b

213、y residents in Spain revived anti-tourism sentiment in online conversations,with activists blocking access to the iconic Es Vedr viewpoint with warning signs,while masked protesters in Tenerife reportedly set fire to rental cars as a protest against overtourism.Focus on value for money from visitors

214、 written reviews Value for Money measures guests perception of the worth or quality an experience has in relation to its cost.The Value for Money sentiment score of European Accommodations and Attractions increased to 8.53 in the first quarter of 2025(+0.08 points vs.Q4 2024).Broken down by vertical

215、s,the score for Accommodations increased to 8.14(+0.13 pts.),while for Attractions it increased to 8.98(+0.05 pts.).Value for money sentiment scores per vertical 8,148,985,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,09,5AccommodationsAttractionsSource:MMGY TCI Research+0.13 vs.Q4 2024+0.05 vs.Q4 2024Overall Value for M

216、oney score Q1 2025 8.53+0.08 vs.Q4 2024 32 The five destinations receiving the most praise in terms of Value for Money in guests written reviews were Italy,Cyprus,Malta,Greece,and San Marino.While Italy is often considered a destination that has become more expensive in recent years,its southern reg

217、ions are still hailed as having excellent value for money in online conversations.Stepping out of the more commonly known spots,regions such as Puglia offer less expensive accommodations,particularly outside of the busiest periods3.Cyprus southern town of Limassol was described online as having plen

218、ty to offer to both leisure visitors and those who consider relocating there temporarily.While it is one of Cyprus most popular destinations,its offer remains affordable while offering beautiful scenery,excellent weather,and a wide range of food and activities4.Destinations receiving the highest sen

219、timent scores on the topic of value for money during Q1 2025 Focus on sustainable travel from visitors written reviews Sustainable Travel measures guests perception of environmentally and socially friendly practices taken by operators.The Sustainable Travel sentiment score of European Accommodations

220、 and Attractions remained relatively unchanged at 7.62 in the first quarter of 2025(+0.01 points vs.Q4 2024).Broken down by verticals,the score for Accommodations stayed at 7.56(=),while that of Attractions increased to 8.16(+0.03 pts.).3 15 Cheapest European Countries To Visit For Budget Vacations.

221、Feb.9th,2025.https:/ 4 The lesser-known sunshine spot with 16km of beaches,1.20 pints,40C temps and Ryanair 57.99 flights.April 7th,2025.https:/www.thesun.ie/travel/15008243/lesser-known-sunshine-cyprus-sea-beaches-pints-flights/9,029,039,049,089,098,959,009,059,10San MarinoGreeceMaltaCyprusItalySou

222、rce:MMGY TCI Research33 Sustainable travel scores per vertical In terms of guests written reviews on Sustainable Travel,San Marino,Austria,Slovenia,Cyprus,and Germany received the most positive comments.Looking into the most recent reviews for San Marino,it becomes apparent that several accommodatio

223、ns received positive comments for guests perceived sustainability.In particular,the Garden Village San Marino was praised by guests for its green spaces and quiet environment.A similar finding comes forward when looking into Austrias attractions,where the Tiergarten Schoenbrunn Zoo in Vienna was hai

224、led for its cleanliness,dedication to recycling,and the well-kept and spacious environments in which the animals are kept.Destinations receiving the highest sentiment scores on the topic of sustainable travel during Q4 2024 7,568,165,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,5AccommodationsAttractionsSource:MMGY TCI Res

225、earch=vs.Q4 2024+0.03 vs.Q4 20248,158,188,268,458,647,607,808,008,208,408,608,809,00GermanyCyprusSloveniaAustriaSan MarinoSource:MMGY TCI ResearchOverall Sustainable Travel score Q1 2025 7.62+0.01 vs.Q4 2024 34 7.Key source market performance Trends discussed in this section relate to the period Jan

226、uary to March 2025,although actual coverage varies by destination.Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination,including absolute values,can be obtained from TourMIS(http:/tourmis.info).Key intra-European source markets For most of the European source markets,the best performing destinat

227、ions in early 2025 have been those offering value for money,or some Central and Eastern European countries which have previously been viewed as too close to the war in Ukraine for comfort.These destinations have experienced some degree of rebound relative to the early months of 2024.However,these re

228、bounds are from historically low visitation numbers since the war in Ukraine seemingly delayed the recovery from the pandemic in these destinations.Cost concerns have seen Croatia experience severe falls relative to 2024 from many source markets.This reflects the price impacts following Croatias acc

229、ession to the Eurozone in 2023.Relatively expensive destinations such as Monaco and Iceland have followed suit.Some destinations which are seen as especially good value for money such as Romania have benefitted.Winter destinations have experienced more rapid growth than many other destinations,but v

230、alue for money is an important driver here as well.Some traditional summer destinations have also performed well in some cases helped by the cool-cations trend and investment by destinations to diversify tourism products.Demand for warmer winter temperatures from some Northern and Western European m

231、arkets supported travel activity across the Mediterranean and Southern Europe,and especially for Spain and Greece.This is supported by efforts to diversify tourism products,including improvements in air capacity,in order to attract more year-round visitors in some of these destinations,as well as a

232、desire among many travellers to avoid peak-summer or overcrowded months.Connectivity between Europe and key source markets is set to rise this year which should help to facilitate additional volumes during the peak-tourism months.Higher prices in some destinations,such as Croatia,have contributed to

233、 some lower tourism activity or slower growth relative to 2024,with increased focus on value-for-money.The Chinese New Year saw a significant improvement in long-haul travel to the region and resulted in broad-based improvement across destinations.Increased air connectivity,especially between China

234、and Eastern Europe should support the continued recovery throughout the year.Some of the more costly destinations in Europe are benefiting from the recovery in long haul travel in early 2025.Both Chinese and Japanese travel to the region saw strong growth compared to 2024,while Indian travel to Euro

235、pe also continues to grow.However,much of the growth is from a low base in these early months and to smaller destinations,and the growth is not fully reflective of full-year growth to Europe.The US and Canada remain important source markets for European destinations,but the heightened uncertainty in

236、 the outlook following recent tariff announcements could result in airlines reconsidering planned increases in transatlantic flights and new routes scheduled for this summer.Australia was the only key source market to see year-on-year growth in at least one metric for every single reporting destinat

237、ion in early 2025 and should continue to grow in importance once again.35 German visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)Greece and Cyprus benefited from the greatest growth in visitor arrivals from Germany in the early months of 2025.German arrivals to Greece were up 35.3%com

238、pared to the same months in 2024;those to Cyprus were up 18.4%.This may follow the cool-cations trend,but in both cases,winter months represent low volumes compared to the summer peak.This is also the case for Montenegro,which has seen one of the steepest declines relative to 2024 but is still up wh

239、en compared to pre-pandemic levels.Trkiye has fared less well in terms of German visitation in the first few months of 2025,with a small decline of-0.2%relative to 2024.Destination countries which suffered especially badly in 2024 on account of their perceived proximity to the war in Ukraine,such as

240、 Poland,Latvia,Slovakia and Hungary,have also demonstrated a strong rebound albeit from subdued levels in the early months of 2025.A higher volume of early bookings for German holidays is encouraging for Southern and Mediterranean destinations going further into the year.However,the steep decline in

241、 German visits to Croatia may reflect increased cost concerns.Recent data indicates that prices are rising at a faster rate in Croatia than other comparable destinations within Europe,and this is resulting in fewer stays and reduced spending from key source markets,including Germany.Demand was also

242、present for winter-tourism destinations,including Bulgaria(11.6%),reporting arrivals which were also comfortably above 2019 levels.Travel to Finland and Switzerland also rose in early 2025.Although for the latter the growth in arrivals was not matched by nights,which may indicate a wider fall in len

243、gth of stay and could indicate some more cost-conscious travellers.Even in winter destinations where nights were down on 2024 levels such as Norway there was relative growth when compared to pre-pandemic levels.Nights spent in Norway were up 57.9%when compared with the same months in 2019,but the mo

244、re modest recent activity may also reflect increased focus on value for money.Eight reporting destination countries registered no increase in either of the metrics.This included some of Germanys immediate neighbours Austria and the Netherlands but largely includes some of the more expensive European

245、 destinations.-20-15-10-505101520GreeceCyprusPolandLatviaSlovakiaMonacoHungaryBulgariaLuxembourgDenmarkFinlandMaltaSwitzerlandRomaniaSpainPortugalEstoniaSerbiaTrkiyeNorwayAustriaSloveniaNetherlandsMontenegroIcelandCroatiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-dat

246、e*,%yearGreece,35.3%(A)Montenegro,-20.5%(N)Croatia,-47.5%(A),-41.3%(N)36 French visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)There was a broadly even split between reporting destinations registering growth on 2024 levels and those reporting declines from France.The two strongest pe

247、rforming destinations were Montenegro and Luxembourg both relatively small destinations in tourism terms.Montenegro is especially volatile in the winter months.Austria and the Netherlands also started the year very strongly.Nights in Austria were up 14.6%and those in the Netherlands,up 14.1%.Arrival

248、s to Spain also started the year on a strong note,as 14.1%more French tourists sought out winter sun than in 2024.Although they were the second largest source market for Spain in early 2025,on average tourists typically opted for shorter stays,with nights growing at a slower 3.4%.In contrast to trav

249、el from Cyprus and Greece registered the steepest declines from France relative to last year with falls in arrivals greater than 40%.These destinations are also volatile in data terms during the winter months since arrivals are far lower than in the peak summer period.Visits to Croatia also register

250、ed a steep fall,down 26.9%,likely due to cost concerns,but with volatility in these off-season months.There was some increase in length of stay by French visitors as nights only fell 3.4%.But Croatia is a relatively small destination for French tourists,so any changes come from a smaller base.There

251、is a risk of disruptions in French arrivals to nearby destinations in the coming months,with a number of possible rail strikes pencilled in to take place between April and June.-20-100102030MontenegroLuxembourgLatviaAustriaNetherlandsSpainNorwaySerbiaBulgariaEstoniaSwitzerlandTrkiyeFinlandIcelandSlo

252、veniaHungaryFranceMaltaPolandRomaniaCroatiaPortugalGermanyDenmarkSlovakiaMonacoCyprusGreeceArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearMontenegro,39.0%(A)Croatia,-26.9%(A)Cyprus,-43.7%(A)Greece,-45.3%(A)37 Italian visits and overnights to select destination

253、s(%relative to 2024)Several reporting destinations have registered exceptional growth in the first few months of the year from Italy.Luxembourg has seen an increase in Italian visits of 74%while Trkiye has also been popular over the winter with Italian visits up 39.9%,as value-for-money is again a k

254、ey emerging trend for 2025.Some winter holiday destinations have also fared well from Italy when compared with 2024,including both Bulgaria and Norway.Finland continues to emerge as a fast-growing but smaller destination for Italian tourists and experienced the benefits from increased marketing and

255、investment in air connectivity,with both arrivals and nights growing upwards of 13.6%on last year.A solid winter performance by Finland has likely been supported by an increase in seasonal flights provided by Iberia and Icelandair.But growth will possibly soften relative to other destinations as the

256、 winter season comes to an end.The steepest fall in Italian arrivals has been in Croatia,with a fall of 22.7%.Amongst the larger destinations,Germany is notable for having had fewer Italian visits,with arrivals down 6.9%on last year.Other expensive destinations,such as Monaco and Iceland,are also ex

257、periencing a drop in Italian tourists.Additional flights by a number of low-cost carriers including Wizz Air and Ryanair are scheduled to start in April and should help to facilitate additional arrivals to both Poland and Croatia.But disruptions to air travel during the Easter period have the potent

258、ial to temporarily dampen outbound trips from Italy to a number of countries.British visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)The picture for travel from the UK has significantly improved in early 2025 as 18 out of 27 reporting destinations saw growth in at least one of the met

259、rics relative to the same months last year.Greece was exceptional in its-30-20-100102030405060LuxembourgEstoniaTrkiyeLatviaPolandNorwayBulgariaFinlandDenmarkMontenegroHungarySlovakiaSwitzerlandSpainSloveniaAustriaNetherlandsItalySerbiaRomaniaMaltaPortugalGermanyCyprusMonacoIcelandCroatiaArrivalsNigh

260、tsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearLuxembourg,74.0%(A),59.9%(N)-30-20-1001020304050GreeceRomaniaLatviaSlovakiaNorwayMaltaSerbiaCroatiaNetherlandsMonacoDenmarkCyprusPolandEstoniaSwitzerlandSpainAustriaTrkiyeFinlandHungaryPortugalLuxembourgGermanyBulgariaSloveni

261、aIcelandMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearGreece,110.5%(A)38 performance,with the number of British visitors more than doubling relative to 2024.Many countries in Central and Eastern Europe also performed well,especially Romania,Latvia a

262、nd Slovakia.Even Croatia saw an increase in nights,while dropping 12.9%in terms of arrivals.Some large tourist destinations which rely heavily on British visitors,including Spain,saw limited growth in percentage terms in early-2025,but due to the size of the market this equated to a significant boos

263、t in visitor numbers.In 2024,there were 18.4 million British visits to Spain,making it the countrys single largest source market.This continued rise in winter visits to the likes of Spain and Greece may reflect growing signs that travel,not just from the UK,is increasing outside of traditional summe

264、r months and there could be various reasons for this including better deals,to escape excessive heat during the summer months and to avoid overcrowding while still enjoying the comparatively warmer climate.The single steepest drop in British visitors when compared to the same months in 2024 was Mont

265、enegro,down 22.6%on last year in terms of visits,although this is a small market,and data can be very volatile during these off-season months.There were also more significant tourist destinations,such as Germany,which registered a fall in British visits(down 8.2%on 2024).Romania reported a solid ris

266、e in British tourists,and although this comes from a low base,the destination is gaining increased visibility as a tourism hub through marketing efforts across the UK.This may have a positive impact on the sentiment for travel elsewhere in the immediate region.Visits to Romania from the UK were up 4

267、3%on the same months in 2024.Travel to other destinations in Central and Eastern Europe also rose on average with some likely improvements in perceptions of safety,but they still have a way to go to achieve pre-pandemic levels of British tourists.For example,Slovakia and Slovenia have seen very diff

268、erent trends over the past year,but both are still lagging in recovery to pre-pandemic levels with arrivals down 10.2%and 40.5%on 2019 respectively.Dutch visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)Travel performance from the Netherlands remains very mixed across destinations in e

269、arly 2025 with some very rapid growth reported as well as large declines.However,more destinations registered declines on 2024 levels than growth.Destinations reporting the strongest growth across either arrivals or nights,including Latvia,Serbia,Cyprus,Poland,Estonia and Luxembourg represent just a

270、 small share of total outbound trips made by Dutch tourists.Luxembourg is growing in popularity due to its geographical proximity with arrivals standing at 24.3%above 2024 levels and nights at 21.6%ahead.The Netherlands is the only major European source market with higher travel volumes to Germany t

271、han in the same period in 2019,but this is not reflected in the relative performance of the first few months of 2025 relative to 2024.Dutch arrivals are currently 4.8%higher than in 2019 and,although nights are not yet recovered,they are within-40-30-20-100102030405060LatviaSerbiaCyprusPolandEstonia

272、LuxembourgHungaryMonacoSpainBulgariaCroatiaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSwitzerlandFinlandGermanyTrkiyeAustriaNorwaySloveniaDenmarkMontenegroMaltaIcelandArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearLithuania,137.2%(A),97.3%(N)39 touching distance at just 5.4%below

273、.If economic conditions worsen for households in the Netherlands,Germany could benefit further due to proximity and relative affordability.Elsewhere,year-on-year growth in both arrivals and nights to Spain,the other largest destination for Dutch tourists,is continuing to rise at a solid pace of 6.9%

274、and 2.6%on 2024 levels respectively,building on its already established recovery from the pandemic.The new Nightjet train operating between the Netherlands and Austria from May should provide an alternative and more sustainable way to travel across the region and challenge the decline in Dutch visit

275、s to Austria registered in the first few months of 2025.Non-European source markets United States visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)More than 80%of reporting destinations experienced arrivals and/or nights growth from the US relative to 2024 levels in the same period,and

276、 that broad percentage is reflected relative to 2019 as well.Norway has been the destination of choice for American tourists looking for specific winter tourism offerings including the Northern Lights this year.The number of nights in the country is up 38.6%on last years levels.Although Norway has g

277、rown faster than many other larger destinations,its ranking will likely settle into a more average position as the year progresses.Among Mediterranean destinations,Malta and Cyprus had the strongest start to 2025.The recent strength of the US dollar has meant that Malta now sees US visitors as its h

278、igh spenders although that may well be affected by changes in exchange rates in 2025.Rising costs in Cyprus are also expected to affect American visits in 2025.Trkiye also had a solid start to 2025,with arrivals 19.6%ahead of 2024.Travel volumes are poised to increase even more during this year,as T

279、urkish airlines are set to increase the volume of transatlantic flights,in particular during the summer.Spain and Germany are two of the most popular destinations for US tourists,but the recovery in Germany continues to lag.Part of this could be put down to connectivity.Whereas there has been an inc

280、rease in connectivity between Spain and various locations in the US and Canada,German flight connectivity has been diminished by strike action in early 2025.This gap has the potential to widen during the summer months as Iberia will increase flight capacity from Spain to the US by 14%on 2024.However

281、,there is a risk that planned rises in flight capacity or routes may be somewhat pared back due to heightened global uncertainty following US policy announcements in recent months.-10-50510152025303540NorwayLatviaMaltaDenmarkCyprusPolandMontenegroTrkiyeHungaryLuxembourgMonacoAustriaSwitzerlandSlovak

282、iaFinlandIcelandSpainCroatiaSloveniaGermanyRomaniaEstoniaPortugalSerbiaGreeceBulgariaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearGreece,-11.2%(A)Bulgaria,-52.8%(A)40 Chinese visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)The Chinese New Year

283、 saw a strong improvement in travel to Europe,with a marked improvement across many destinations compared to last quarters report.Malta saw the strongest increase in both visits and nights from China,with a 166.2%increase in Chinese visits and even stronger growth in nights,albeit from a small base.

284、This is despite the fact that,at present,even under strengthening tourism relations,there are no direct flights between China and Valetta.Nights spent by Chinese tourists in Norway have far exceeded 2019 levels with growth of 110.1%relative to the pre-pandemic period and 122.3%growth relative to las

285、t year.Its appeal as a winter destination has risen due to greater visibility of the Northern Lights and,more recently,it has become one of the top 20 destinations for Chinese tourists.Strong demand for trips to Norway and Hungary have been supported by increased travel over Chinese New Year while f

286、light connectivity has also improved.Spain has been actively trying to boost tourism with China,building on the FITUR 2025 event hosted in Madrid in January,which likely attracted a considerable number of attendees and participants from China.However,not all of the growth can be attributed to this a

287、s Spain also hosted this event in 2019,but the level of attendance at this years event was significantly higher than in 2019.Japanese visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)-50-30-101030507090110130150MaltaHungaryNorwayMontenegroSerbiaSlovakiaPolandDenmarkLatviaPortugalAustri

288、aFinlandSpainSloveniaTrkiyeSwitzerlandGermanyCroatiaMonacoEstoniaRomaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearMalta,166.2%(A),196.8%(N)-40-20020406080IcelandFinlandEstoniaTrkiyeNorwayAustriaHungaryRomaniaSwitzerlandPortugalMonacoSlovakiaSpainDenmarkCr

289、oatiaPolandLatviaSloveniaGermanyMontenegroSerbiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%year41 Nearly every reporting destination country saw growth in at least one metric from Japan relative to the same month in 2024.The far north of Europe has seen the mo

290、st marked growth over the past 12 months with Iceland and Finland topping the rankings for Japanese visitors.Finnair has added more direct flights to Tokyo and has brought back flights to Nagoya.There are currently no direct flights between Iceland and Japan and this rapid growth in 2024 is being se

291、rved by travel via other hubs,but this is from low base volumes.Improvement was reported for Norway,suggesting winter tourism provided a boost to the region.But this pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained as the year progresses into peak season with higher base volumes for comparison.Japanese tr

292、avel to Switzerland has continued to rise in early 2025,on top of significant prior increases,and has the potential to continue improving as the year goes on with the addition of a new direct route from All Nippon Airways between Tokyo and Zurich.The airline also plans to expand its network in Trkiy

293、e further boosting tourist arrivals.Trkiye continues to attract a rising number of tourists from Japan and is also benefitting from increased air capacity on direct routes.Serbia and Montenegro have seen the steepest falls in 2025 relative to the same period last year both accounting for a relativel

294、y small number of visits in volume terms.Indian visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)Travel from India to Europe grew rapidly at the start of the year,with all but three reporting destination seeing arrivals or nights ahead of 2024 levels.The strongest performer overall was

295、 Iceland,which saw an increase of arrivals of 89%.There are currently no direct flights from India to Iceland but the latter benefits from being part of the Schengen area.It is important to appreciate that this is growth on a small base though;in 2024 there were only around 26,000 Indian visits to I

296、celand.Latvia,Montenegro and Finland all of which also saw strong growth relative to 2024 are also small destinations for Indian visitors.Finlands arrivals and nights were also significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.The increase of the Gen-Z population where the majority are categorised withi

297、n a middle income household is a potential factor driving the general improvement in tourism from India.This also explains some changes in travel preferences and suggests that growth to these smaller destinations may continue.Switzerland saw relatively strong growth of 25.2%in Indian arrivals compar

298、ed to last year.Switzerland is marketing itself as a year-round destination,not just to India but to the Asia/Pacific region as a whole.More frequent flights between Delhi and Zurich could further support the recovery through the summer.Air India is increasing frequencies on some other routes with a

299、 particular focus on the UK and Austria,as well as Switzerland.The three exceptions to growth from India are Germany,Croatia and Portugal.However,visa applications for Germany from India have increased.-40-20020406080100IcelandLatviaMontenegroFinlandNorwaySerbiaSlovakiaDenmarkPolandSwitzerlandRomani

300、aMonacoAustriaTrkiyeHungaryGermanyCroatiaPortugalArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%year42 Canadian visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)Around two thirds of reporting countries have seen growth in Canadian visits in one or mo

301、re tourism metrics since the early months of 2024.At the top end,these include a number of smaller destinations which have suffered in recent years from being perceived as being close to the war in Ukraine such as Latvia(where visits are up 336%on last year)and Slovakia(up 52.6%).Larger tourism dest

302、inations,such as Spain,have also seen notable growth.Visits to Spain from Canada are up 34.7%on last year.Other key destinations,such as Austria and Switzerland,also exhibited strong growth.Portugal continues to increase its share of Canadian tourists,although momentum was not especially strong in t

303、he early months of this year.Additional flight capacity between the two countries is being added in time for the summer months in response to the longer-term demand trend and suggests that growth will probably recover later this year.Specific new flight capacity is being added by Air Canada between

304、Montreal and Porto as well as an increase in the frequency of flights between Lisbon and Toronto.A similar rise in flights between Canada and Nice could support continued demand in Monaco,although this is a small market,so triple digit growth does not represent a significant increase in arrivals or

305、nights relative to other countries.One reporting destination which appears to have made a poor start to the year is Malta with visits from Canada down 32.6%.Malta had an especially positive performance from Canada in 2024 with visits increasing by around 23%on 2023.Data are also often volatile durin

306、g these off-season months.In spite of the overall bright picture,there is a risk that slower economic growth and a possible recession may make long-haul travel to these destinations less affordable than they were last year,potentially leading to less and/or shorter transatlantic trips.It could also

307、result in a review of current flight schedules among airlines,even for those who are set to increase transatlantic flights in the next few months.-40-30-20-100102030405060LatviaSlovakiaMonacoSpainSloveniaAustriaPolandSwitzerlandCyprusTrkiyeFinlandSerbiaNorwayPortugalGermanyMontenegroRomaniaDenmarkCr

308、oatiaMaltaEstoniaHungaryIcelandArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearLatvia,336.0%(A),184.6%(N)43 Australian visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)All reporting destinations recorded growth in at least one metric for arrivals

309、from Australia.Monaco,Slovakia and Montenegro posted a decline in one of the metrics with growth in the other.Australian tourists continue to favour Southern Mediterranean destinations this year to date,with arrivals to reporting countries such as Cyprus and Spain up strongly compared to the same mo

310、nths last year.Cyprus has seen growth in Australian arrivals of 97.2%;Spain,58.5%.Nordic destinations have performed well over the winter months,especially Finland with a comparable rise in both arrivals(56.3%)and nights(47.5%).While Norway(47.9%)and Denmark(47.5%)are also both reporting significant

311、ly more nights spent by Australian tourists than a year ago.Increased travel capacity between these destinations and Australia are likely a contributing factor supporting the strong growth reported in recent months.Malta has seen a 34.7%increase in nights from Australia supported by the resumption o

312、f flights from Doha by Qatar Airways to Valetta.Efforts by Air India to improve air connectivity between destinations in Eastern Europe and the Asia/Pacific region,including Australia,should improve travel times for Australian tourists.This could possibly make these smaller and less well-known desti

313、nations more attractive and easier to visit.The rise in demand for several Central and Eastern European destinations,especially Estonia and Latvia,is evident with both starting the year with arrivals and nights ahead of where they were in 2024.Some of this could be attributed to some returning migra

314、nts visiting friends and relatives with over 9,000 Estonians now living in Australia.-100102030405060CyprusLatviaSpainFinlandNorwayDenmarkEstoniaCroatiaPolandMaltaTrkiyeAustriaMontenegroSwitzerlandRomaniaSloveniaSerbiaPortugalHungarySlovakiaIcelandMonacoGermanyArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varie

315、s(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearCyprus,97.2%(A)Latvia,85.3%(A),75.7%(N)44 Brazilian visits and overnights to select destinations(%relative to 2024)The majority of reporting destinations reported growth in travel from Brazil with only four recording a decline in either visits or night

316、s.Strong growth was most evident for Latvia,Austria and Spain,which all saw arrivals from Brazil up by in excess of 30%compared to the same months in 2024.However,most of the destinations reporting significant growth do not represent a large share of total visits to Europe.For example,around 2,700 B

317、razilian trips were made to Latvia in 2024,and if the current pace of growth continues,it would imply only 800 additional visits this year.Finland is a more significant destination for Brazilians and a continuation of the current rate of growth from 2024 indicates around an additional 5,000 visits f

318、rom Brazil.Switzerland is a good example of an emerging destination that has become more significant over the last few years.Consistent marketing efforts across multiple platforms is expected to maintain the upward trend in arrivals and nights spent by tourists from Brazil.Among the more popular des

319、tinations for Brazilian tourists,Germany is still to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels,and it has seen little change in outlook since the opening months of 2024 with arrivals slightly up but nights marginally down.-30-20-10010203040LatviaAustriaSpainPolandFinlandHungaryRomaniaSwitzerlandSloveniaM

320、onacoDenmarkNorwaySlovakiaCroatiaEstoniaGermanyTrkiyeSerbiaPortugalMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2025 year-to-date*,%yearLatvia,56.9%(N)Serbia,-31.6%(N)45 8.Origin market share analysis Based on Tourism Economics Global Travel Service(GTS)model,the followin

321、g charts and analysis show Europes evolving market position in absolute and percentage terms for selected source markets.Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound travel for the calculation of market share.For example,US outbo

322、und figures featured in the analysis are larger than reported departures in national statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple destinations.In 2014,US data reporting shows 11.9 million departures to Europe,while the sum of European arrivals from the US was 23.4 million.Thus,each

323、 US trip to Europe involved a visit to two destinations on average.The geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Southern/Mediterrane

324、an Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,North Macedonia,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Trkiye;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,R

325、ussian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine.46 United States market share summary United States long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of American market Total outbound travel138,903-4.7%25.9%-9.1%-Long haul87,01362.6%5.3%29.2%64.3%15.4%59.2%Short haul51,89037.4%3.8%20.4%35.7%-0.1%40.8%Travel to Europe4

326、2,88530.9%4.0%21.4%29.8%20.0%28.1%European Union5,8864.2%46.5%574.8%22.7%-74.2%17.9%Northern Europe11,1418.0%1.9%10.1%7.0%25.9%6.9%Western Europe13,0349.4%3.7%19.7%8.9%10.3%9.3%Southern Europe14,69410.6%4.3%23.2%10.3%30.1%8.9%Central/Eastern Europe4,0162.9%8.8%52.1%3.5%6.0%3.0%*Shows cumulative chan

327、ge over the relevant time period indicated.2019-24 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics2024Growth(2024-29)Growth(2019-24)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2029*Cumulative growth*Share 2019*010.00020.00030.

328、00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.000100.00020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20142016201820202

329、0222024202620280%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market47 Canada market share summary Canada long-haul*outbound travel Europ

330、es share of Canadian market Total outbound travel39,059-2.4%12.8%-1.5%-Long haul16,29541.7%5.3%29.3%47.8%5.5%40.2%Short haul22,76458.3%0.2%0.9%52.2%-1.1%59.8%Travel to Europe7,66019.6%2.6%13.9%19.8%15.8%17.2%European Union9992.6%50.8%679.6%17.7%-78.7%12.2%Northern Europe1,6904.3%2.2%11.5%4.3%19.9%3.

331、7%Western Europe2,1255.4%2.4%12.7%5.4%2.3%5.4%Southern Europe3,7619.6%2.7%14.4%9.8%28.1%7.6%Central/Eastern Europe830.2%11.5%72.7%0.3%-57.0%0.5%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2019-24 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbo

332、und travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2029*Cumulative growth*Share 2019*Growth(2019-24)2024Growth(2024-29)02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020.00020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern E

333、uropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201420162018202020222024202620280%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market48 Mexico market share summary M