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1、MMMP P POO O04/2025Latin America and the CaribbeanCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldMACRO POVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Dis

2、closure Authorized 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000 Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclu

3、-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on

4、any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright.Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of it

5、s knowledge,this work may be reproduced,in whole or in part,for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.All queries on rights and licenses,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,U

6、SA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 2025Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20251Latin America and the CaribbeanArgentinaBahamas,The Barbados Belize BoliviaBrazil ChileColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala GuyanaHaiti H

7、onduras JamaicaMexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay PeruSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSuriname Trinidad and TobagoUruguayARGENTINASubstantial progress has been achieved in addressingmacroeconomic imbalances.Inflation is decelerating,thetwin deficits have been eliminated,economic activity is

8、recovering,and the Central Banks balance sheet is graduallystrengthening.Real GDP is projected to grow by 5.5 percentin 2025.Poverty is estimated at 13.3 percent by end-2024.However,balancing inflation reduction with the removal ofexchange rate and capital controls poses significant risks.Key condit

9、ions and challengesArgentina boasts vast natural resources,a highly skilled workforce,andstrongcomparativeadvantagesinagroindustry,aswellasselect-ed manufacturing and service sectors.Despite this potential,thecountry has faced recurring macroeconomic crises over the pastdecades.Weak macroeconomic ma

10、nagement,primarily driven bythe monetary financing of fiscal deficits,has led to persistently highinflation,capital and exchange rate controls,and mounting debt.In December 2023,authorities launched an ambitious macroeco-nomic stabilization program to eliminate the fiscal deficit and,con-sequently,i

11、ts monetary financing.The program also sought to cor-rect relative price misalignments,strengthen the Central Banksbalance sheet,and deregulate the economy.To strengthen the business environment,the government enacteda special regime for large investments,lowered tariffs,eliminatedimport licenses,an

12、d reduced export taxes.Balancing structural reforms while protecting the most vulnerableremains a challenge.Although Argentinas poverty rate is lowerPopulation1Poverty2millionmillions living on less than$6.85/day45.74.0Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)76.1108.7GDP5GDP p

13、er capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$641.414037.0Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2023(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2022.5/2024.6/2024.than that of many regional peers(estimated at 13.3 percent in 2023under the international poverty line of$6.85 per day,2017 PPP),ithas been rising in recent ye

14、ars,unlike most of Latin America.Recent developmentsThe stabilization program has delivered remarkable results.RealGDP contracted by 1.8 percent in 2024,but economic activity be-gan to rebound in the second half of 2024,driven by revivedinvestment and private consumption.Month-on-month inflationdece

15、lerated from 25 percent in December 2023 to 2.4 percentin February 2025.Large spending cuts helped reverse an overallfiscal deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP in 2023 into an estimated sur-plus of 0.7 percent of GDP in 2024.Accordingly,sovereign riskpremium declined from 2,000 basis points(bps)in end-202

16、3 toaround 750 bps in February 2025.A 55 percent devaluation of the peso in December 2023,followedby a 2 percent monthly crawling peg in 2024(reduced to 1 percentin February 2025),anchored inflation expectations and significantlynarrowed the exchange rate premium.Initially driven by the de-valuation

17、 and import payment managementand later by the taxFIGURE 1/Central government primary balance and monthly CPIinflation051015202530-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24Oct-24 Jan-25Primary balance(lhs)Monthly inflation(rhs)PercentPercent of GDPSourc

18、es:National Institute of Statistics and Censuses(INDEC),and Ministryof Economy.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200000246810121416182008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026International poverty rateLower middle-incom

19、e pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20252amnestythe Central Bank purchased over US$

20、23bn.However,net reserves only improved modestly,from-US$11bn in December2023 to an estimated-US$6bn in February 2025,due to debt pay-ments to bondholders and multilateral institutions,as well as Cen-tral Bank interventions in the parallel exchange market.The cur-rent account surplus is estimated at

21、 1.0 percent of GDP in 2024.ByDecember 2024,however,the inflation and the exchange rate-pegdifferential led the multilateral real exchange rate to return to lev-els observed in November 2023.Monetary policy initially relied on negative real interest rates to re-duce Central Banks remunerated liabili

22、ties but later shifted to keepthe broad monetary base stable at 8 percent of GDP.Poverty peaked at 18 percent of the population during H1 2024(international poverty line of US$6.85 per day,2017 PPP)up from13.3 percent in H2 2023.However,declining inflation and ex-panded social transfer programs help

23、ed lower poverty to 13.3percent in H2 2024.While real wages are recovering,householdincomes remain fragile.From November 2023 to November 2024,186,000 formal job lossesmostly in the private sectorpushedmany workers into informal employment.Unemployment rosefrom 5.7 percent in 2023 to 7.7 percent in

24、Q2 2024,stabilizing at6.9 percent in Q3 2024.OutlookReal GDP is projected to rebound to 5.5 percent in 2025 andreach 4.0 percent by 2027,driven by investments in energy(oiland gas),agriculture and mining exports,and market-orientedreforms.Disinflation is expected to continue,supported by con-tinued

25、fiscal discipline and tighter monetary policies.Fiscal balance is expected to remain the cornerstone of the eco-nomic program.The federal governments primary fiscal surplusis projected at 1.3 percent of GDP in 2025 and increase to 2.5percent by 2027,ensuring an overall fiscal balance.Public debtis e

26、xpected to decline from 79 percent of GDP in 2025 to 69percent in 2027.Important gains in reducing the exchange rate premium,coupledwith a credible fiscal and monetary program,are expected to en-able a gradual unification of exchange rates.The recovery of theexternal sectorsupported by a growing tra

27、de surplus and finan-cial inflows,including debt issuance and multilateral supportwillhelp rebuild foreign reserves.The poverty rate is projected to decline to 12.7 percent by 2025,as real wages grow and the social safety net system continues sup-porting the most vulnerable populations.The outlook r

28、emains subject to significant downside risks.Externalthreats include commodity price fluctuations,adverse climate con-ditions,and tighter global monetary policies.Domestic vulnerabil-ities stem from a weaker-than-expected economic recovery andlimited legislative support for reforms.Balancing inflati

29、on controlwith the gradual removal of exchange rate controls presents con-siderable challenges.Furthermore,a slower decline in the sover-eign risk premium could delay Argentinas re-entry into global cap-ital markets,a crucial step for managing foreign currency debtobligations starting in 2026.Recent

30、 history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices5.3-1.6-1.85.54.54.0Private consumption9.41.0-3.33.52.62.5Government consumption3.01.5-7.55.53.51.1Gross fixed capital investment11.2-2.0-18.217.58.86.8Exports,goods and services4.6-7.519.83.85.24.6Imports,g

31、oods and services17.81.7-11.810.24.42.6Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices5.1-1.5-1.85.54.54.0Agriculture-2.8-22.924.0-2.13.52.2Industry5.6-0.2-5.84.84.04.1Services6.00.8-2.66.94.94.2Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)56.456.656.656.756.856.9Inflation(private consumption defl

32、ator)69.9131.1228.636.014.59.4Current account balance(%of GDP)-0.6-3.21.0-0.4-0.40.0Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)2.13.21.40.81.31.1Fiscal balance(%of GDP)1-4.7-4.60.70.50.91.4Revenues(%of GDP)34.234.033.134.034.834.8Debt(%of GDP)189.7174.384.878.974.668.8Primary balance(%of GDP)1-2.7

33、-2.72.52.03.23.7International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)2,30.60.50.50.50.50.5Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)2,32.52.62.62.52.42.4Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)2,310.913.313.312.712.412.2GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)2.9-3.3-2.22.82.52.4Source:World Bank,Po

34、verty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Fiscal data refer to the general government.2/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2023-EPHC-S2.Actual data:2023.N

35、owcast:2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.3/Projections using microsimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20253THE BAHAMASThe Bahamas economy has rebounded to pre-pandemiclevels thankstorobusttourism.Despitelimiteddiversif

36、icationandexternalvulnerabilities,thecountryismakingsignificantprogresstowardeconomicstability.Theprimarysurplusachievedin2024helpedreducepublicdebt.Althoughgrowthmaymoderate,fiscalconsolidationandresilienceeffortsshouldpersist.TheBahamasneedstonavigateglobal uncer-tainties while maintaining stabili

37、ty and reducing poverty.Key conditions and challengesThe Bahamas is a small island state,highly dependent ontourism,particularly from the United States,Canada,and theUnited Kingdom.Although economic activity has rebounded topre-pandemic levels,growth remains limited by the economyssmall size,a lack

38、of diversification,high import dependence,hotel infrastructure capacity limits,vulnerability to extremeweather and external shocks,skill shortages,and limited fiscalspace.The country also faces elevated public debt levels andsignificant gross financing needs.The Central Bank has main-tained a strict

39、 1:1 peg between the Bahamian dollar and theU.S.dollar(USD)since 1973.As of 2013(the most recent data),12.8 percent of the populationlived below the national poverty line,and the Gini coefficient was41.1,surpassing the World Banks high inequality threshold of40.The cost of a healthy diet in 2022 was

40、 higher than the LatinAmerican average and has been increasing since 2017,althoughfood insecurity was low.In 2022,The Bahamas ranked 57th inthe Human Development Index with a value of 0.82,matching itsCaribbean peers and remaining stable since 2013.Population1Povertymillion0.4.Life expectancy at bir

41、th2School enrollment3yearsprimary(%gross)74.477.9GDP4GDP per capita5current US$,billioncurrent US$14.937022.0Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2022.3/2023.4/2024.5/2024.Recent developmentsReal GDP grew by an estimated 1.9 percent in 2024,comparedto 2.6 percent in 2023.Tourism was the main

42、 driver of growth,though it was tempered by limited accommodation capacity anda normalization in air arrivals.Cruise ship calls increased by ap-proximately 20 percent in 2024,boosting total arrivals by 16 per-cent and total room nights stays by 6 percent.Labor force par-ticipation returned to pre-pa

43、ndemic levels,reaching 73.4 percent(69.8 for women and 77.4 percent for men)in 2024Q2.However,methodological changes in the labor force survey prevent com-parisons with previous years.Unemployment stood at 8.7 per-cent in the first half of the year,with youth unemployment at19.6 percent in 2024Q2.No

44、tably,78 percent of the unemployedhave at least completed secondary education and 15.6 percenthold a tertiary degree.The high percentage of unemployed edu-cated individuals and employed youth lacking field-specific train-ing may indicate a misalignment between education,training,and job opportunitie

45、s.Fiscal adjustment was supported by improved tax compliance,cyclical revenue rebound,and expenditure containment.TheFIGURE 1/Real GDP growth and sectoral contributions to realGDP growth-5051015202021202220232024e2025f2026f2027fAgricultureIndustryServicesNet taxes on productionReal GDP growthPercent

46、,percentage pointsSource:World Bank.FIGURE 2/Fiscal balance and public debt-8-6-4-202460204060801002021202220232024e2025f2026f2027f Debt(lhs)Fiscal balance Primary balancePercent of GDPPercent of GDPSource:World Bank.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlo

47、ok/April 20254government achieved a primary surplus of 2.9 percent of GDPin FY2023/24,up from 0.3 percent in FY2022/23.The overalldeficit contracted to 1.3 percent of GDP from 3.8 percent inFY2022/23,due to a 7.7 percent increase in revenues anda 3.7 decrease in expenditures.Consequently,central gov

48、-ernment public debt decreased to 84.0 percent of GDP andexternal debt to 34.6 percent.The current account deficitwidened to 9.2 percent of GDP mainly because of a deteri-oration in the trade balance.It has been financed primarilythrough government external borrowing and foreign directinvestments.Gr

49、oss international reserves stood at US$2.6bnat the end of 2024,covering 4.4 months of imports.Creditto the private sector grew by 5.5 percent in 2024,exceed-ing the expansion of deposits,while the share of loans thatwere in arrears or non-performing improved to 2.6 and 5.5percent,respectively.Inflat

50、ion moderated significantly in 2024,after averaging 3.1 per-cent in 2023,and has been negative since July.Hotel and restau-rant prices fell by 2.6 percent annually,reflecting internation-al competitive pressures.With the currency peg limiting discre-tionary monetary policy,domestic interest rates ar

51、e closely fol-lowing the U.S.Federal Reserves policies.The year-on-year in-flation rate is estimated at-0.2 percent in 2024,with averageannual inflation at 0.4 percent.The decline in inflation was alsodriven by lower food and beverage,gasoline,and diesel prices.The governments effort to strengthen r

52、esilience to climate haz-ards in food supply chains,through enhanced local productionand innovation in agriculture,could further reduce economic risksfor the poor.OutlookGDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.1 percent in 2025,1.2percent in 2026,and 1.3 percent in 2027,aligning with its long-term

53、potential growth rate.The economy will continue to rely on strongtourism activity in 2025,especially on cruise ship arrivals,and relat-ed investment projects.Inflation is expected to converge to 2 per-cent in the medium-to-long term.Fiscal consolidation is set to con-tinue,with the fiscal balance tu

54、rning to surplus in FY2025/26 andthe primary surplus remaining above 4.0 percent of GDP due toimplementation of tax reforms and further containment of expen-ditures.The current account deficit is expected to improve slowlydue to the stronger performance of the tourism sector,while thedebt-to-GDP is

55、expected to continue its downward trend.In thebaseline scenario,the Central Bank is set to maintain,to the extentallowed by the currency peg,an accommodative policy stance.Risks to the outlook include uncertainty in trade policy that couldimpact investment and growth and potential global economic an

56、dfinancial shocks.Extreme weather events and geopolitical conflictscould impact global commodity prices,raise inflation,and disruptfood supply chains.Additionally,weaker-than-expected growth inadvancedeconomiescouldreducetouristarrivals.Allofwhichwouldplaceadditionalpressureonthewelfareofthemostvuln

57、erable.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices10.82.61.91.11.21.3Private consumption2.48.00.61.60.91.2Government consumption12.84.53.71.71.51.5Gross fixed capital investment-5.64.52.04.91.52.2Exports,goods and services43.14.50.10.31.21.4Imp

58、orts,goods and services-2.210.72.30.20.92.0Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices13.65.01.91.11.21.3Agriculture-0.426.90.10.71.31.4Industry-11.710.39.52.72.72.7Services16.94.31.10.91.01.1Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)64.665.265.265.265.265.2Inflation(consumer price index)5.

59、63.10.41.01.61.9Current account balance(%of GDP)-8.0-6.4-9.2-9.2-8.5-7.6Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)2.42.63.23.23.23.0Fiscal balance(%of GDP)1-3.8-1.3-1.10.20.40.6Revenues(%of GDP)20.421.122.423.423.423.4Debt(%of GDP)189.884.384.078.776.275.2Primary balance(%of GDP)10.32.93.34.64.84

60、.8GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)6.63.61.41.21.51.7Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Fiscal balances are reported in fiscal years(July 1st-June

61、 30th).This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20255BARBADOSBarbados recorded three years of robust economic growthpost-pandemic,astourismrebounded.However,theecono-myremainssmall,dependentontourism,andvulnerabletonaturaldisasters.Despitefollowinga

62、decliningpath,publicdebtremainshigh,anddebtservicereducesfiscalspace.Thegovernment is committed to the Barbados Economic Recov-ery and Transformation(BERT)2022 plan to reduce debt,promote green energy,and enhance competitiveness.Key conditions and challengesBarbados faces several challenges as a sma

63、ll island state withan economy reliant on tourism and imports,vulnerable to ex-treme weather and external financial shocks.High public debtlevel,though decreasing,leads to high debt service and re-duced fiscal space.The government is committed to imple-menting the BERT 2022 plan which aims to reduce

64、 public debtto about 60 percent of GDP by 2035/36,promote green energy,diversify the economy,enhance competitiveness,invest in edu-cation and health,provide affordable housing,and strengthensocial safety nets.In 2016/17,11.1 percent of Barbadians lived below the interna-tional upper middle-income co

65、untry poverty line of$6.85 2017PPP per day.Poverty was higher among women,girls,andpeople in female-headed or larger households.As of 2022,the National Assistance Program(NAP)the Barbados Wel-fare Departments main social assistance programreachedaround 6,500 households,or around 6 percent of house-h

66、olds,with cash assistance.The National Insurance Scheme(NIS),whichprovidessocialinsurance,faceslonger-termPopulation1Poverty2thousandthousands living on less than$6.85/day282.530.9Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)77.793.4GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$

67、7.225365.8Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2016(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2023.5/2024.6/2024.challenges given increased spending on old-age pensionsand Barbados aging population.Recent developmentsReal GDP is estimated to have expanded by 3.8 percent in2024,compared to 4.1 percent in 2023.Grow

68、th was robustacross sectors,especially tourism,business services,construc-tion,and manufacturing,although agriculture contracted dueto adverse weather conditions.Increased airline capacity andinternational events,contributed to a 10.7 percent rise intourist long-stay arrivals and higher hotels earni

69、ngs.Cruisepassenger arrivals surged by 40.8 percent in 2024,with a 14.1percent increase in cruise calls.Credit to the non-financial pri-vate sector increased by 4.4 percent in 2024,led by real estateand professional services.The average consumer price index inflation rate decreased to 2.3percent in

70、2024 from 5.0 percent in 2023,supported by lower in-ternational commodity prices and receding domestic inflation.Thefiscal deficit for FY23/24 stood at 1.6 percent of GDP,with aprimary surplus of 3.8 percent.Public debt fell to 100.3 percentFIGURE 1/Real GDP growth and sectoral contributions to real

71、GDP growth-5051015202021202220232024e2025f2026f2027fAgricultureIndustryServicesNet taxes on productionReal GDP growthPercent,percentage pointsSource:World Bank.FIGURE 2/Fiscal balance and public debt-6-4-202460204060801001201402021202220232024e2025f2026f2027f Debt(lhs)Fiscal balance Primary balanceP

72、ercent of GDPPercent of GDPSource:World Bank.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20256of GDP,while external debt service increased 0.3 percentagepoints to 3.0 percent of GDP.In the first three quarters ofFY24/25,the government achieved a primar

73、y surplus of 5.3percent of GDP,due to increased corporate tax revenues,fol-lowing the November 2023 tax reform,with an overall surplusof 1.5 percent of GDP.The trade deficit widened as imports rose by 1.9 percent year-on-year and exports fell by 0.3 percent.The services surplus wideneddue to higher

74、tourism receipts while higher interest payments ondebt worsened the income account deficit.The current accountdeficit narrowed to 5.9 percent of GDP,compared to 8.6 percent in2023.International gross reserves reached a record US$3.1 billion,covering 31.2 weeks of imports.In June 2024,the unemploymen

75、t rate was 7.7 percent,downfrom 8.5 percent in June 2023,despite an increase in the laborforce participation rate from 62.6 percent to 63.5 percent overthe same period.Employment growth was strongest in the man-ufacturing and education sectors,while wholesale and retailtrade and accommodation and fo

76、od services remained Barbadoslargest employers.With robust growth and contained inflation,poverty has likely de-creased in the last five years.The share of Barbadians living on lessthan$6.85 2017 PPP per day is estimated to have dropped from15.5 percent in 2021 to 9.2 percent in 2025,reflecting the

77、countryspost-pandemic recovery.OutlookGDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.8 percent in 2025,2.0percent in 2026,and 1.7 percent in 2027.The economy is expectedto benefit from significant tourism activity in 2025,with positivespillovers to other sectors.The government continues to invest inrenew

78、able energy projects,sustainable tourism,and disaster pre-paredness,which are crucial for sustainable and inclusive growth.Inflation is expected to stabilize around its historical average of 2.4percent due to the easing of global commodity prices and lowerdomestic service prices.Fiscal consolidation

79、 is set to continue,withthe government planning to increase revenues through tax re-forms and improve fiscal institutions.A fiscal surplus is expected in2026,and the primary surplus is expected to remain above 4.0 per-cent of GDP.The current account deficit is projected to decrease toremain close to

80、 6 percent of GDP while debt-to-GDP is expected tofall below 90 percent by 2027.With slower growth,poverty reduc-tion is also forecast to slow,with the share of Barbadians living onless than$6.85 2017 PPP per day decreasing from 9.2 percent in2025 to 8.5 percent in 2027.However,risks to the outlook

81、persist,including uncertainty in tradepolicy that could impact investment and growth,potential globaleconomic and financial shocks,extreme weather events,and es-calating conflicts in other parts of the world,which could impacttourist arrivals and raise inflation.Recent history and projections2022202

82、32024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices17.84.13.82.82.01.7Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices16.34.23.82.82.01.7Agriculture-18.09.4-4.72.12.31.6Industry8.5-1.34.02.62.11.8Services19.05.14.02.82.01.6Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)57.657.457.357.257.1

83、57.0Inflation(consumer price index)4.95.02.32.42.42.4Current account balance(%of GDP)-9.4-8.6-5.9-6.2-5.8-5.9Fiscal balance(%of GDP)0.2-3.7-1.6-0.20.20.4Revenues(%of GDP)26.825.126.626.126.126.1Debt(%of GDP)113.8110.7100.395.791.186.7Primary balance(%of GDP)4.53.83.84.34.44.3International poverty ra

84、te($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,21.21.11.11.11.11.1Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)1,22.82.32.21.91.81.7Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,211.310.39.89.28.88.5GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)4.60.70.50.40.50.7Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.E

85、missions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Calculations based on CONLAC harmonization,using 2016-BSLC.Actual data:2016.Nowcast:2017-2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.2/Projection using neutral distribution(2016)w

86、ith pass-through=0.87(Med(0.87)based on GDP per capita in constant LCU.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20257BELIZEAfter recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic with robustgrowth and debt reduction,Belize must tackle long-termstructural challe

87、nges to reduce poverty and inequality andsustain growth.The economy,reliant on tourism,agriculture,and remittances,faces challenges such as limited credit andinadequate infrastructure.GDP growth reached 5.4 percentin 2024,driven by tourism and construction.However,it isexpected to slow,with risks fr

88、om global uncertainty.Key conditions and challengesBelize,an upper middle-income country,relies heavily on tourism,agriculture,and remittances for foreign exchange.Its economichealth is closely tied to the United States,which is its primarysource of tourists and remittances,the main destination for

89、its ex-ports,and a key investor.Belizes economy is sensitive to energyprice fluctuations because of its status as a net importer of oil andgas and its exchange rate being pegged to the US dollar.Addition-ally,the country faces significant risks from natural disasters.Be-lize has made significant pro

90、gress in stabilizing the economy by en-hancing fiscal discipline and reducing public debt through debt re-structuring and blue bond issuance.Belize is also improving fiscalmanagement by making its fiscal policy more countercyclical.How-ever,the business environment still faces major challenges,inclu

91、d-ing limited credit availability for the private sector,inadequate in-frastructure,skill shortages,and high crime rates.Poverty rates had been increasing in the two decades of limitedgrowth before the pandemic.Since the peak of the pandemic,monetary and multidimensional poverty rates have started t

92、o de-cline.As of September 2024,approximately 22.1 percent of thePopulation1Poverty2thousandthousands living on less than$6.85/day412.375.6Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)71.097.0GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$3.58526.8Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official d

93、ata.1/2024.2/2018(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2023.5/2024.6/2024.population was multidimensionally poor according to Belizes na-tional definition.Multidimensional poverty rates are higher in ruralareas(30.9 percent)compared to urban areas(9.7 percent),withthe Toledo district experiencing the highest rates(6

94、7.9 percent).Poverty is particularly pronounced among children aged zero to 14(30.5 percent),households with children(27.2 percent),Belizeansof Maya descent(56 percent),large households(42.4 percent inhouseholds with 7+members),and households with an uneducat-ed head(36 percent).Extreme weather even

95、ts have significantlycontributed to poverty over the past decades.The high prevalenceof informal employment,which disproportionately affects migrantsand youth,has also been linked with higher poverty rates.Recent developmentsGDP growth is estimated at 8.2 percent in 2024,up from 1.1percent in 2023,p

96、rimarily driven by a surge in tourist arrivals,electricity and water production,and construction.Average infla-tion was 3.3 percent in 2024,with notable increases in food andbeverages(5.6 percent)and restaurants and accommodation(7.4percent).The current account deficit widened to 1.5 percent ofGDP i

97、n 2024,from 0.6 percent of GDP deficit in 2023,mainlyFIGURE 1/Real GDP growth and sectoral contributions to realGDP growth-505101520252021202220232024e2025f2026f2027fAgricultureIndustryServicesNet taxes on productionReal GDP growthPercent,percentage pointsSource:World Bank.FIGURE 2/Actual and projec

98、ted poverty rates and real GDP percapita020004000600080001000012000140001600005101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes

99、:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20258due to a surge in imports.Belizes monetary policy has focused onsupporting economic stability and growth,with the exchange rateremaining pegged to the US dollar.T

100、he Central Bank of Belize hasmaintained adequate international reserves to anchor the curren-cy peg,covering four months of imports at the end of 2024.Be-lize has achieved and maintained a primary surplus in recent years,supported by improved revenue efforts and expenditure control.The primary surpl

101、us is projected to remain just below 1 percentof GDP,while overall fiscal deficit is expected to remain stable atabout 1.5 percent of GDP.Revenues are estimated to decline from22.9 percent of GDP in FY2023/24 to 22.5 percent in FY2024/25,while total expenditure is estimated to decline from 24.4 to 2

102、4.2percent of GDP.The financial sector showed some improvement in 2024.The Cen-tral Banks vigilance and the authorities efforts to strengthen theAnti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism(AML/CFT)frameworkwere positivedevelopments.Domesticbanks maintained strong regulatory capital,a

103、nd nonperformingloans decreased.However,challenges persist,including pressuresin specific loan portfolios,increased corporate insolvencies,andtight liquidity in some banks,which continue to constrain real pri-vate sector credit growth.Positive labor market trends are beneficial for poverty reduc-tio

104、n,with unemployment decreasing sharply from 3.9 percentin September 2023 to 2.1 percent in September 2024.Howev-er,labor force participation remains low at 56.3 percent,andgender disparities in labor outcomes remain high,with womenparticipating at a rate of 43.6 percent compared to 69.7 percentfor m

105、en(down from 44.5 and 71.4 percent respectively in 2023).In 2024,15.0 percent of the population is estimated to live on lessthan US$6.85/day(2017 PPP).OutlookGDP growth is expected to decelerate to an average 2.5 percentin the coming years,with inflation decreasing from 2.1 percent in2025 to 1.3 per

106、cent in 2027.The primary surplus is projected toremain just below 1 percent of GDP,while overall fiscal deficit isexpected to remain stable at about 1,5 percent of GDP.Resum-ing principal payments on the Blue Bond after the grace periodwill further pressure fiscal space.The current account deficit i

107、sexpected to increase to about 2.0 percent of GDP in the mediumterm.The debt-to-GDP ratio will gradually decrease but remainabove 60 percent.In line with expected GDP growth,poverty is expected to declineover the coming years.By 2027,the poverty rate is expected toreach 14.1 percent.Risks to the out

108、look are skewed to the downside.A sharper eco-nomic deceleration in origin countries would translate into few-er tourist arrivals and lower growth,while a slower path of fedrate cuts could hamper debt dynamics.Higher than anticipatedimport inflation would increase domestic inflation and widen thecur

109、rent account deficit.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices9.41.18.22.82.42.3Private consumption10.41.55.75.03.02.0Government consumption6.65.39.42.52.31.1Gross fixed capital investment14.65.44.03.42.12.0Exports,goods and services14.310.91

110、.4-1.01.42.3Imports,goods and services10.3-2.47.81.92.11.5Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices8.20.78.32.82.42.3Agriculture0.1-6.2-2.06.12.42.1Industry-1.2-2.54.81.52.02.3Services12.22.610.52.82.52.3Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)55.354.554.554.454.354.3Inflation(consumer

111、price index)6.34.43.32.11.51.3Current account balance(%of GDP)-8.2-0.6-1.5-2.0-1.9-1.9Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)4.60.4-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.2Fiscal balance(%of GDP)1-0.1-1.4-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.5Revenues(%of GDP)23.122.922.522.522.522.5Debt(%of GDP)170.971.262.962.962.461.6Primary balance(%of

112、GDP)11.70.70.80.80.90.9International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)2,30.30.30.30.30.30.3Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)2,33.23.22.92.82.82.6Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)2,316.616.615.014.614.214.1GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)0.30.30.20.10.10.1Source:World Ba

113、nk,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Fiscal balances are reported in fiscal years(April 1st-March 31st).2/Projection using neutral distribution(2018)with pass

114、-through=0.7(Low(0.7)based on GDP per capita in constant LCU.3/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2018-HBS.Actual data:2018.Nowcast:2019-2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 20259BOLIVIAMacroeco

115、nomic imbalances and sociopolitical tensions con-tinue to weigh on poverty reduction and growth,projectedat 1.2 percent in 2025.Declining gas revenues and Boliviaslarge subsidies have widened fiscal and external pressures.Annualinflationincreasedto14.6percentbyMarch.Boliviawouldbenefit from a medium

116、-term strategy to enhancemacroeconomic stability and promote private investment.Key conditions and challengesBoliviasuffersfromstructurallyhighfiscaldeficits,lowgrowth,dwindling reserves,and a loss of access to inter-national capital markets.These macroeconomic imbalancesstem from costly subsidies,d

117、eclining gas production duetoinsufficientinvestment,anarrowexportbase,andaweak business environment discouraging private-sector ac-tivity.Progress in poverty reduction has slowed as a result,and the country now has limited buffers to respond to ex-ternal and climate shocks.Low job quality is a struc

118、tural issue in Bolivia,hinderingeconomic growth and poverty reduction.The ongoing demo-graphic transition,increasing urbanization,and a more edu-cated workforce are making it more urgent to generate moreand better jobs.Current social assistance programs do noteffectively support the poor and vulnera

119、ble,with benefitsnot indexed to inflation,and their design limits their abilityto respond swiftly to shocks.Population1Poverty2millionmillions living on less than$6.85/day12.41.7Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)64.998.9GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$49

120、.74001.2Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2023(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2023.5/2024.6/2024.Recent developmentsSubsidies and a fixed exchange rate kept inflation low in past years,but decreasing natural gas output is leading to forex and fuel short-ages,a widening parallel exchange rate gap,and

121、 declining re-serves.Inflation increased to 14.6 percent year-on-year in March2025,with food inflation at 25.3 percent(Figure 1).The Govern-ment continues to resort to ad-hoc measures,including price con-trols and export restrictions.The fiscal deficit increased from 7.1percent of GDP in 2022 to 10.

122、9 percent in 2023 and an estimated11.6 percent in 2024,driven by the declining gas revenues and con-tinuing high subsidies.Given difficulties in obtaining legislative ap-proval for external loans and the limited access to internationalcapital markets,the Government increasingly resorts to monetaryfi

123、nancing,further fueling inflation.Public debt is estimated at 93.0percent of GDP in 2024.Real GDP growth was 3.1 percent in 2023,and it is estimated tohave slowed to 1.4 percent in 2024,driven by a decrease in capitalformation,lower growth in government and private consumption,FIGURE 1/Inflation-10-

124、505101520253020182019202020212022202320242025HeadlineFoodHousingEducationPercent(y/y)Source:Instituto Nacional de Estadstica of Bolivia(INE).FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita05001000150020002500300035004000450005101520253035402008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2

125、024 2026International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/A

126、pril 202510and import contraction.Real per capita household income in 2023surpassed its 2021 levels,resulting in a decline in the poverty ratefrom 15.2 percent in 2021($6.85/day per capita 2017 PPP)to 14.1percent in 2023.Labor force participation,employment rates,andaverage real labor income stagnat

127、ed in 2021-23.However,the in-tegration of a growing working-age population into the labor mar-ket helped boost household income.Old-age pensions contributedto the reduction in poverty,as the number of individuals eligiblefor a non-contributory pension rose,while 40 percent of them re-mained employed

128、.Public transfers declined with the phase-out ofCOVID-19 relief programs.Income growth was more pronouncedat the top of the distribution,increasing the Gini index from 40.9in 2021 to 42.1 in 2023.Per capita growth is projected to decline in2024,increasing the poverty rate($6.85/day per capita 2017 P

129、PP)to 14.6 percent.The countrys external situation continues to weaken,puttingpressure on the parallel exchange rate.The current account bal-ance fell to-2.0 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of2024,driven by the decrease in gas exports,while internationalreserves stood at the low level of

130、1.98 billion dollars in December2024(2.9 months of imports).OutlookGrowth is expected to slow further to 1.2 percent in 2025 as macro-economic imbalances,fuel shortages,inflation,and uncertaintylimit private consumption and overall economic activity.Falling hy-drocarbon revenues and high subsidy spe

131、nding continue to widenfiscal deficits,projected to continue above 12.0 percent of GDP.Given Bolivias limited access to external financing and its contin-ued use of monetary financing,price pressures are high.Inflationis expected to increase to 13.0 percent in 2025 and may be furtherexacerbated as d

132、ollar shortages generate import constraints.Poverty is projected to present a slight upward trend in the medi-um term as growth slows,failing to keep pace with populationgrowth.Given mounting inflationary pressures,the purchasingpower of poor and vulnerable households is at risk of eroding.The curre

133、nt account deficit is projected to remain close to-2.7 per-cent due to lower natural gas production and export restrictions.Despite recent contracts with foreign companies,the impact of mo-bilizing foreign and public investment in lithium development andgas exploration is expected to be limited in t

134、he short and mediumterm due to the long investment horizons.Depleted macroeconomic buffers and limited scope for reformsin a fragmented political context expose the economy to bothdomestic and external risks,such as climate events and an in-creasingly adverse global economic context.Lower-than-previ

135、ous-ly anticipated prices for oil and gas exports also pose downsiderisks to fiscal revenues and inflation.A credible medium-termplan to reduce the fiscal deficit,accumulate reserves,and regainaccess to international capital markets is critical for igniting newgrowth and reducing poverty.Fiscal sust

136、ainability could be en-hanced by transitioning from universal fuel subsidies to more tar-geted support mechanisms,rationalizing public investment,andmaking public procurement more efficient.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices3.63.11.41.

137、21.11.1Private consumption3.43.22.01.71.61.6Government consumption3.72.41.40.70.50.5Gross fixed capital investment5.65.70.40.10.10.1Exports,goods and services15.1-8.8-5.0-2.00.51.5Imports,goods and services8.8-2.5-6.0-3.00.61.5Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices3.73.11.41.21.11.1Agriculture3.8

138、2.72.02.32.32.3Industry1.01.10.60.60.60.6Services5.74.61.71.31.21.0Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)75.576.076.076.076.076.0Inflation(consumer price index)1.72.65.113.013.513.5Current account balance(%of GDP)2.1-2.6-2.5-2.6-2.7-2.6Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)0.20

139、.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1Fiscal balance(%of GDP)-7.1-10.9-11.3-12.1-12.6-12.8Revenues(%of GDP)26.626.626.025.625.525.5Debt(%of GDP)80.184.993.096.097.598.0Primary balance(%of GDP)-5.5-9.3-9.7-10.5-11.0-11.3International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,22.21.82.02.42.52.8Lower middle-income poverty rate($3

140、.65 in 2017 PPP)1,25.65.05.15.65.96.2Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,215.914.114.615.015.215.3GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)1.20.4-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.

141、Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2023-EH.Actual data:2023.Nowcast:2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.2/Projections using microsimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Pove

142、rty Outlook/April 202511BRAZILGDP grew 3.4 percent in 2024,driven by consumption andinvestment.Growth is expected to slow to 1.8 percent in2025 amid global headwinds and tighter monetary policy.Medium-term growth is projected at 2.0 percent,supportedby recent reforms.Job and wage growth reduced pove

143、rty by0.8 percentage points in 2024,but further reforms are need-ed to sustain growth,boost competitiveness,create jobs,and reduce inequality.Key conditions and challengesBrazils economic growth has shown resilience,averaging over 3percent in the past three years.Strong private consumption,boost-ed

144、by social transfers,was the main driver of demand,while,on thesupply side,growth in services and agriculture played a key role.The expanding labor market helped reduce poverty and inequality,although the Gini Index remained high at 51.7 percent in 2024.Therecent indirect tax reform is expected to im

145、prove productivity,re-duce compliance costs,and remove myriad economic distortions.To sustain growth amid demographic changes,further structuralreforms are needed to enhance productivity,improve business en-vironment,promote innovation and openness to trade,strengthenlearning outcomes,and boost resi

146、lience to climate change.Fiscal sustainability remains a challenge.Budget rigidity and expen-diture growth indexation undermine public spending efficiency,eroding fiscal space for public investments.With a high and risingdebt-to-GDP ratio,highly sensitive to negative economic shocks,aprimary fiscal

147、adjustment of 3 percent of GDP is necessary to re-verse the debt trajectory and rebuild fiscal buffers.Controlling age-related spending,through reforms like de-indexing pensions fromPopulation1Poverty2millionmillions living on less than$6.85/day205.345.8Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yea

148、rsprimary(%gross)73.4104.0GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$2179.410616.2Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2023(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2022.5/2024.6/2024.minimum wage increases,is essential for compliance with fiscalrules and targets,improving fiscal policy credibility.A propo

149、sed in-come tax reform aimed at broadening the tax base and enhancingprogressivity would further support fiscal sustainability.Recent developmentsIn 2024,GDP grew 3.4 percent,driven by private consumption sup-ported by a strong labor market,and investment recovery.Onthe supply side,services led grow

150、th while industry recovered,andagriculture dropped from its record 2023 level.Strong servicesdemand,higher food prices,and domestic currency depreciationdrove inflation to 4.8 percent in 2024,exceeding the upper limitof the Central Banks target range(4.5 percent).This prompted amonetary tightening o

151、f 375 basis points since August 2024.Thecurrent account deficit increased to 2.8 percent of GDP,driven byincreased imports of goods and services,mostly financed by netforeign direct investment(FDI)of 2.1 percent of GDP.Meanwhile,driven by shifts in the external environment and fiscal uncertainty,the

152、 Real depreciated by 27.9 percent at year-end,despite a slightrebound in 2025.Reserves remained at 15 percent of GDP,cover-ing 14 months of goods imports.FIGURE 1/Real GDP growth and contributions to real GDP growth-9-6-30369122000200320062009201220152018202120242027Gov.cons.ExportsGFCFInventoriesPr

153、ivate cons.ImportsStatistical disc.GDPPercent,percentage pointsSource:World Bank staff calculations.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita010002000300040005000600070008000051015202530354020122014201620182020202220242026International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rat

154、eUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202512The general governments primary fiscal deficit nar

155、rowed from 2.3percent in 2023 to 0.3 percent of GDP in 2024,driven by strong rev-enue growth and reduced expenditures(in 2023 expenditures in-creased due to one-off payments for judicial orders).Public debtincreased from 73.8 percent to 76.5 percent of GDP in 2024 due tohigher interest payments.The

156、poverty rate fell from 21.7 to 20.9 percent(at the US$6.85per day,2017 PPP rate)in 2024,thanks to a strong labor mar-ket.The economy added 2.8 million jobs,bringing unemploy-ment to a record low of 6.2 percent by year-end and liftinglabor force participation.Average real wages rose by 4.8 per-cent,a

157、bove the 3.0 percent real increase in the minimum wage.The minimum wage increase benefited not just low wage work-ers,but also pensioners and social protection recipients,whosebenefits are largely set by it.Poverty declined the most in ruralareas,among youth,and black Brazilians(1.3,0.8,and 0.8 per-

158、centage points,respectively).OutlookGrowth is expected to decrease to 1.8 percent in 2025 as higherinterest rates and uncertainty in trade policy weigh on investmentand exports.Household consumption is expected to slow dueto lower transfers and fading labor market gains.Inflation is ex-pected to gra

159、dually converge to 4.2 percent by 2027,as monetarytightening anchors inflation expectations.Medium-term growth isexpected to stabilize at 2.0 percent,reflecting the impact of ongo-ing structural reforms.The current account deficit is expected tonarrow,driven by lower imports amid slowing activity,re

160、mainingcovered by net FDI flows.Efforts to curb expenditure growth andincrease tax revenues are projected to improve the primary deficitfrom 0.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to a surplus of 0.3 percent of GDPby 2027.Public debt is projected to reach 80.2 percent of GDP by2027,driven by high interest costs

161、 in the short term,underscoringthe need for additional fiscal efforts.Thereafter,debt is projectedto decline slowly,supported by primary surpluses,continued GDPgrowth and moderating domestic interest rates.Poverty reduction is expected to slow due to lack of fiscal space forincreased social spending

162、 and reduced growth in services,where80 percent of the poor are employed.Macroeconomic risks are tilted to the downside.Resilient con-sumption and faster implementation of structural reforms couldresult in higher growth.However,lower commodity prices maycompound the potential effects of the ongoing

163、trade tensions.In-creasing interest rates in the US could trigger further depreciationand inflation pressures.Domestic risks stem from the challengeto achieve fiscal adjustment and anchor inflation expectations.Arobust financial system,ample foreign reserves,large cash bal-ances,a flexible exchange

164、rate,and low foreign-denominateddebt continue to mitigate risks.Recent history and projections2022202320242025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices3.03.23.41.82.02.0Private consumption4.13.24.82.02.32.4Government consumption2.13.81.91.61.41.2Gross fixed capital investment1.1-3.07.30.6

165、0.80.9Exports,goods and services5.78.92.91.51.10.9Imports,goods and services1.0-1.214.71.31.01.0Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices3.13.43.11.82.02.0Agriculture-1.116.3-3.25.02.52.0Industry1.51.73.31.51.61.8Services4.12.53.81.52.12.1Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)56.656.9

166、58.056.756.055.7Inflation(consumer price index)9.34.64.45.44.74.2Current account balance(%of GDP)-2.2-1.2-2.8-2.3-2.1-2.0Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)2.11.72.12.52.52.5Fiscal balance(%of GDP)-4.6-8.8-8.4-7.6-6.6-5.7Revenues(%of GDP)39.437.538.838.738.438.3Debt(%of GDP)71.773.876.578.

167、879.880.2Primary balance(%of GDP)1.2-2.3-0.3-0.10.00.3International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,23.52.72.62.62.62.6Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)1,28.47.47.27.17.06.9Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,223.521.720.920.820.620.3GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)0.

168、8-11.7-13.02.1-2.8-0.4Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2023-PNADC-E1.Actual data:2023.Nowc

169、ast:2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.2/Projections using microsimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202513CHILEGrowth is projected to converge towards potential in 2025.Elevated inflation is expected to persist througho

170、ut mostthe year but subside by year-end.Poverty and inequalityare unlikely to decrease due to the stagnation of realhousehold incomes.A larger-than-expected deficit in2024 increased public debt.Key conditions and challengesChile has strong macroeconomic institutions and effectivelymanaged recent glo

171、bal macroeconomic volatility.However,thecountry faces mounting challenges due to low growth,subduedinvestment,and a decade-long productivity stagnation.Min-ing is expected to support medium-term growth.On the fiscalfront,the government is making additional efforts to achieveits medium-term fiscal ba

172、lance target,as structural shifts haveled to revenue shortfalls.Poverty in Chile is the lowest in theregion and has been steadily declining.However,significant re-gional disparities persist,and progress in non-monetary indica-tors remains limited.Recent developmentsGDP grew by 2.6 percent in 2024,dr

173、iven by mining exports.In-vestment decreased by 1.4 percent,while consumption grew just1.0 percent.Unemployment declined slightly to 8.5 percent from8.6 percent in 2023 but remained above the 7.2 percent recordedin 2019.Sluggish job creation is attributed to low investment inPopulation1Poverty2milli

174、onmillions living on less than$6.85/day20.10.9Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)79.5100.2GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$330.216441.2Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2022(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2022.5/2024.6/2024.non-mining sectors,low dynamism

175、in labor-intensive industrieslike construction,and rising wage costs.The poverty rate,definedas the share of people living below US$6.85/day per capita(2017PPPs),declined to 4.7 percent.Women,youth,and low-skilledworkers remain overrepresented among the poor.Informality re-mained high at 26.4 percen

176、t in December 2024,down from 27.5percent the previous year,with women disproportionately affectedat 28.4 percent compared to 24.8 percent for men.Inflation decreased to 4.3 percent in 2024 from 7.6 percent in2023 but remained above the Central Banks 3.0 percent target.Inflation spiked into double di

177、gits in 2022 before declining.It roseagain in March 2024 driven by currency depreciation,higher la-bor costs,and three subsequent adjustments of previously frozenelectricity rates.The Central Bank reduced the policy rate from8.25 to 5.0 percent in 2024,as inflation eased and domestic de-mand remaine

178、d weak.The current account deficit decreased to 1.5 percent of GDP,drivenby stronger export growth and lower imports amid a depreciatedpeso.Consequently,national savings rose to 19.5 percent of GDPin the second quarter,up from 18.7 percent last year,fueled byhigher private savings.FIGURE 1/Fiscal tr

179、ends:Debt,revenue,and expenditures0510152025303540452014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Gross debt Expenditures RevenuesPercent of GDPSources:Central Bank of Chile and World Bank staff calculations.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita024681012051015202

180、5302009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant million LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information a

181、vailable as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202514Consumer and commercial loans experienced negative real annualgrowth of 2 and 3 percent,respectively,in 2024.Commercial loans,which increased in 2020,have since declined by 10 percent(3 per-cent since 2019).While interest rates have refl

182、ected monetary pol-icy cuts,stricter collateral requirements have limited lending,anddemand has remained subdued.The Central Government cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit reached3.2 percent of GDP in 2024,exceeding the 1.9 percent targetand raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to 42 percent.Weak corporatet

183、ax collection,slow domestic demand recovery,and a drop inlithium prices contributed to lower-than-expected revenue.Tomitigate the gap,the government implemented cuts totaling 0.6percent of GDP.In January 2025,Congress approved a pension reform with a 7percent employer contribution and raised the sta

184、te-backed pen-sion,increasing fiscal expenditures by 0.3 percent of GDP by2027.The reform is expected to boost savings by 1.7 percent ofGDP,supporting investment and growth,though it may discourageformal employment.OutlookReal GDP growth is expected to be 2.1 percent in 2025,driven bya recovery in i

185、nvestment and continued export growth,althoughuncertainty around global trade dynamics could weigh on invest-ment decisions and dampen growth prospects.The investmentrebound is primarily attributed to reactivated large-scale miningprojects,positively impacting medium-term investment.Outsidemining,bu

186、siness confidence improved at the end of 2024 due tostronger sales,though cautious investment decisions persist dueto uncertainty.Poverty and income inequality are estimated to re-main around 4.6 percent and 43.0 Gini points in 2025,respectively,and gradually decrease thereafter.Short-term cost pres

187、sures are expected to keep inflation around5 percent in early 2025,but medium-term inflationary pressuresshould ease,with the monetary policy rate declining over thepolicy horizon.The current account is expected to deteriorate to 3.6 percent ofGDP as lower copper prices and rising import costs will

188、also weighon the balance.The latest Public Finance Report(Q4 2024)predicts that the CentralGovernments cyclically adjusted deficit will reach 1.6 percent ofGDP in 2025,exceeding the 1.1 percent target due to lower tax col-lection and lithium revenues.Efforts to reduce the deficit are ex-pected but n

189、ot yet reflected in the projections.The 2026 target is a0.5 percent deficit,but the government estimates,based on com-mitted expenditures and projected cyclically adjusted revenue,itwill reach 1.2 percent.The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remainaround 42.7 percent by 2027,slightly below the 45 p

190、ercent target.Current global trade tensions will likely mostly affect Chile indi-rectly given its relatively low exposure to the US market.Chang-ing trade policies and heightened uncertainty could have signif-icant indirect effects on Chile through lower demand for its ex-ports and lower copper pric

191、es.Additional external risks includetighter credit conditions,which could hinder investment recovery.Domestic risks arise from political uncertainty ahead of the No-vember 2025 elections.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices2.20.52.62.12.

192、22.1Private consumption1.6-4.91.02.12.22.2Government consumption6.32.23.01.41.92.0Gross fixed capital investment4.6-0.1-1.43.72.82.4Exports,goods and services0.80.16.63.12.82.8Imports,goods and services1.3-10.92.53.93.13.1Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices2.51.42.92.12.22.1Agriculture-0.1-0.8

193、5.42.32.22.2Industry-1.42.93.31.61.81.8Services4.30.92.62.32.32.2Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)55.055.856.756.756.656.6Inflation(consumer price index)11.67.64.34.63.23.0Current account balance(%of GDP)-7.9-3.1-1.5-3.6-3.9-3.6Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)1.74.62

194、.72.52.52.4Fiscal balance(%of GDP)1.4-2.3-2.5-3.2-2.8-2.6Revenues(%of GDP)27.925.024.024.324.624.5Debt(%of GDP)37.739.241.642.442.742.7Primary balance(%of GDP)2.4-1.2-1.5-2.1-1.7-1.5International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,20.40.50.40.40.40.4Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)1

195、,20.90.90.80.80.80.8Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,24.74.94.74.64.54.5GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)-14.7-3.65.54.44.74.0Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent c

196、hange unless indicated otherwise.1/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2022-CASEN.Actual data:2022.Nowcast:2023-2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.2/Projections using microsimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/Apri

197、l 202515COLOMBIAGrowth reached 1.7 percent in 2024,driven by private con-sumption and modest investment,as inflation eased and in-terest rates fell.While external deficits normalized,the fiscaldeficit widened,debt increased due to weak revenue andrigid spending.Poverty is estimated to have declined

198、slightlyto 31.3 percent,with regional disparities persisting.Growthis projected at 2.4 percent in 2025.Risks include slow fiscalconsolidation,inflation persistence,and global uncertainty.Key conditions and challengesColombiahasmaintainedmacroeconomicstabilitythroughstrong institutions,including infl

199、ation-targeting,exchange rateflexibility,and fiscal rules.However,growth has remained insuffi-cient,with productivity stagnating for over two decades,limitingconvergence with high-income economies and progress in reduc-ing social inequalities.Despiteastrategiclocationandmultipletradeagree-ments,limi

200、ted global integration constrains export diver-sificationbeyondcommodities.Acomplexandunequaltax system discourages private investment,limited marketcompetitionstiflesinnovationandproductivitygrowth,while rigid public spending limits growth-enhancing invest-ments.Service delivery remains weak with s

201、ubpar educa-tion outcomes,and infrastructure deficits reduce connectivityand competitiveness.Structural constraints perpetuate deep regional inequalities,withBogots income nearly six times that of Choc.Some munici-palities experience up to 90 percent of“learning poverty”andPopulation1Poverty2million

202、millions living on less than$6.85/day52.916.9Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)73.7104.8GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$418.07903.8Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2023(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2022.5/2024.6/2024.preventable infant mortality.Highe

203、r productivity growth requiresimproved infrastructure,public services,a more equitable taxsystem,and more open business environment.Inclusive growthfurther requires more efficient fiscal transfers,modernized socialsecurity,and improved labor markets.Recent developmentsColombias economy grew 1.7 perc

204、ent in 2024(0.7 percent percapita),supported by declining inflation and looser monetarypolicy.Private consumption remained resilient,with modest in-vestment gains in civil works.Activity in the health,education,public administration,agriculture,and entertainment sectors ledgrowth.But momentum slowed

205、 in the second half of 2024 dueto fiscal consolidation.Inflation fell from 11.7 percent in 2023 to 6.6 percent in 2024 re-maining above the central banks 2-4 percent target,with core in-flation persisting due to indexation.The central bank cautiously cutthe policy rate to 9.5 percent,constrained by

206、fiscal risks and exter-nal uncertainties.The peso depreciated 5.8 percent due to dollarstrength and fiscal uncertainty.FIGURE 1/GDP and components50607080901001101201301402018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q1GDPConsumptionGross fixed capital formationExportsImportsIndex 2019=100Sources:Departam

207、ento Administrativo Nacional de Estadsticas(DANE),and WorldBank staff calculations.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita051015202501020304050602008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.r

208、ateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant million LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202516The fiscal deficit widened from 2.7 percent in 2023 to 4.8 percent o

209、fGDP in 2024 due to weak corporate tax receipts from extractives,underperforming VAT,and high public spending.Despite expendi-ture cuts of 1.7 percent of GDP,under-execution was necessaryto approach fiscal targets.Debt-to-GDP rose from 59.9 percentto 64.1 percent,driven by higher deficits,peso depre

210、ciation,in-creased interest payments,and arrears accumulation.The Emerg-ing Markets Bond Index Global spreads increased from 300 to 322bps,above peers but below the November 2022 peak.The currentaccount deficit narrowed from 2.4 to 1.8 percent of GDP,support-ed by strong services exports and reduced

211、 primary income out-flows.Total exports held at$49.6 billion,with volume gains in coaland coffee offset by lower prices.Record-high remittances(2.8 per-cent of GDP)helped ease external pressures.Foreign direct invest-ment(FDI)remained strong in extractives,while international re-serves reached$63 bi

212、llion,covering nine months of imports.Labor markets improved slightly,with employment increasing by756,000 people,benefiting mainly large cities and women.Howev-er,86 percent of new jobs were in lower-productivity self-employ-ment,and informality slightly increased,particularly in Bogot.Theimpact of

213、 social assistance restructuring remains unclear due tochanges in targeting,benefits,and budget cuts.The poverty rate isexpected to have slightly declined to 31.3 percent in 2024(UpperMiddle-Income Country poverty line:$6.85/day,2017 PPPs),but re-gional disparities persist.OutlookColombias economy i

214、s projected to grow 2.4 percent in 2025,reaching its potential growth rate of 2.9 percent by 2027.Growthis expected to be driven by private consumption and mildly risingprivate investment,with commerce and manufacturing stabilizing.Inflation is expected to gradually converge to 3.0 percent in 2026,a

215、llowing gradual interest rate reductions.Thefiscaldeficitisexpectedtonarrowto4.5percentofGDPin2025,withgradualreductionsunderthefiscalrule.Giveninflexibleexpen-ditures,the government announced 0.7 percent of GDP in expendi-turedeferralsfor2025,primarilyaffectinginvestment.Meeting fiscaltargets will

216、require strict spending controls to offset potential rev-enue shortfalls,a lower tax base,uncertain tax administrationgains and rising debt servicing costs.Tight cash management willbe essential to preserve liquidity.Debt would stabilize after 2027.The current account deficit is projected to widen t

217、o 3.3 percent in2025,driven by falling commodity exports receipts and rising im-port costs.It is expected to stabilize at 2.7 percent by 2027.FDI(3.0percent of GDP)should remain the main external financing source.Poverty reduction should advance slightly with economic recovery,declining to 30.8 perc

218、ent in 2025,though climate shocks may affecthouseholds,particularly in Caribe and Pacfico.Promoting better-quality jobs and adjusting social protectionsuch as expandingcoverage and adaptivenesswould enhance resilience.Downside risks are significant,with uncertainty around fiscal con-solidation.A lar

219、ger-than-expected deficit or delays in structural fis-cal adjustments could raise borrowing costs and slow monetaryeasing.Persistent inflation and policy uncertainty may suppressprivate investment and job creation.External risks include volatilecommodity prices and escalating trade uncertainty that

220、could trig-ger adverse terms-of-trade shocks.These,combined with tighterglobal financial conditions,could constrain growth,amplify infla-tionary pressures,and exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities,with poten-tial implications for poverty reduction.Climate change remains athreat to economic and fiscal st

221、ability,while regional armed vio-lence may worsen territorial disparities and hinder progress.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices7.30.71.72.42.72.9Private consumption10.70.41.62.12.32.8Government consumption0.81.6-0.5-0.20.00.0Gross fix

222、ed capital investment11.4-12.73.00.45.34.3Exports,goods and services12.53.12.03.24.85.3Imports,goods and services24.0-9.94.22.12.53.0Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices6.41.21.92.42.72.9Agriculture-0.81.78.12.93.02.8Industry6.9-1.3-1.31.63.03.1Services6.92.12.42.62.52.8Employment rate(%of work

223、ing-age population,15 years+)56.557.357.357.657.858.0Inflation(consumer price index)10.211.76.64.53.13.0Current account balance(%of GDP)-6.0-2.4-1.8-3.3-2.8-2.7Fiscal balance(%of GDP)-6.5-2.7-4.8-4.5-4.4-4.0Revenues(%of GDP)27.632.428.928.227.827.9Debt(%of GDP)64.659.964.164.765.967.0Primary balance

224、(%of GDP)-2.11.3-0.20.30.30.5International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,26.04.84.84.54.54.4Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)1,214.012.212.011.511.411.2Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,234.832.431.330.830.530.1GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)-0.9-3.0-1.8-0.4-0.1-

225、0.1Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2023-GEIH.Actual data:2023.Nowcast:2024.Forecasts are

226、from 2025 to 2027.2/Projections using microsimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202517COSTA RICAGrowth reached 4.3 percent in 2024,driven by strongdomestic demand,with construction and manufacturingstanding out.Policy rate

227、 cuts helped return inflation to thepositive territory.Despite a higher fiscal deficit,fiscal consoli-dation remains on track and the public debt continues todecline.Strong labor market outcomes,including the lowestunemployment rate in a decade,supported reductions inpoverty and,to a lesser extent,i

228、n inequality.Key conditions and challengesCosta Ricas per capita income has doubled in the pasttwo decades,thanks to an outward-oriented growth mod-el,investments in human capital,and good governance.The country diversified its exports,reducing its vulnerabil-ity to external shocks,and strengthened

229、its green trade-mark through sustainable natural resource managementand reforestation.However,weak integration between the export-oriented anddomestic-oriented segments of the economy has contributedto income and territorial disparities.Despite accessible health-care and education,monetary poverty r

230、eduction has beenlimited(from 15.6 percent in 2010 to 14.1 percent in 2022,US$6.85/day,2017 PPP)but has accelerated since 2022(to10 percent in 2024).Inequality remains high(Gini index of45.8 in 2024).All five regions have poverty rates twice thatof the Central region,which includes San Jose.Poverty

231、ishigher among Afrodescendants,indigenous populations,andmigrants.Female labor force participation remains low at49.3 percent in 2023.Population1Poverty2millionmillions living on less than$6.85/day5.10.5Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)77.3107.6GDP5GDP per capita6curren

232、t US$,billioncurrent US$96.118736.5Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2024(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2022.5/2024.6/2024.Fiscal challenges arose between 2008 and 2018 due to increasedspending without corresponding revenues.A 2018 reform aimedto stabilize the fiscal situation,but the pandemic and

233、commodityprice shocks delayed adjustments.Public debt rose from 56 per-cent of GDP in 2019 to 68 percent of GDP in 2021.Increased rev-enues,expenditure controls,and strong growth(averaging 5.9 per-cent between 2021 to 2023)enabled the country to post primarysurpluses since 2022.The public-debt-ratio

234、 is declining but remainsat around 60 percent of GDP.Addressing inclusion and fiscal management challenges is crucial.Growth must benefit all socioeconomic groups.Fiscal policiesshould continue to support sustainability,while protecting vulner-able groups.Revenue mobilization and spending efficiency

235、 are es-sential to address these challenges.Recent developmentsCosta Ricas economy grew 4.3 in 2024,driven by strong domesticdemand,particularly private consumption and investment.Keycontributors included construction,manufacturing,and transport,while adverse weather impacted agriculture and tourism

236、.FIGURE 1/Revenues,expenditures,and deficit-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10105101520252005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027Budget deficitRevenuesExpendituresPercent of GDPPercent of GDPSources:Ministry of Finance of Costa Rica and World Bank estimates.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty r

237、ates and real GDP percapita01234567891005101520252008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant million LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the

238、 next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202518After experiencing deflation,fueled by exchange rate appreciationand falling commodity prices,the BCCR cut rates by 425 basispoints between March-2023 and October-2024.This monetary eas-ing r

239、aised inflation to 0.8 percent by the end of 2024.With low in-flation and a resilient labor market,the poverty rate(US$6.85/day,2017 PPP)fell by 2.7 p.p.in 2024.The current account deficit(CAD)stayed stable at 1.4 percent ofGDP in 2024,financed by strong foreign direct investment(FDI).Merchandise ex

240、ports grew steadily,supported by medical sup-plies and manufacturing,while services exports slowed.Goodsimports decelerated,but service imports expanded due to higheroutbound travel.Net international reserves reached US$14.2 bil-lion,covering 5.7 months of imports.The exchange rate appreci-ated 2.9

241、percent against the US dollar in 2024,adding to the 18percent appreciation since 2022.Fiscal consolidation continued with a smaller primary surplus(1.1percentofGDP).Expendituresgrewfasterthanrevenues,influencedby temporary factors such as retroactive wage adjustments and de-layedpaymentsofaccruedrev

242、enues.Investmentsintransportinfra-structure and emergency programs raised capital expenditures.Combinedwithhigherinterestpayments,thisledtoafiscaldeficitof3.8 percent of GDP.Costa Rica remained aligned with its medium-termfiscalgoals,reducingfinancingneedsandthedebt-to-GDPratio.Fiscal consolidation

243、has boosted confidence,leading to upgrades insovereigncreditratingsbyallthreemajorratingagencies.OutlookEconomicgrowthisprojectedtoaverage3.7percentfor2025-2027,reflecting a slowdown in exports due to weaker growthin key trade partners.Robust domestic demand and FDI,particu-larly in manufacturing an

244、d services,will help support growth dur-ing 2025-2026.Exports are expected to gradually recover startingin late 2026 as the global economy gains momentum.The CAD is expected to widen to 1.8 percent of GDP,amid lower ex-ports growth and increased capital goods imports.FDI is expectedto decelerate mil

245、dly due to uncertainty but stay strong.Reservesremain at adequate levels.Inflation is projected to return to the target range(3 percent 1p.p.)in 2025,supported by a neutral monetary stance.The pover-ty rate is projected to decline below 10 percent for 2025-2027.Im-proving targeting and efficiency in

246、 social programs could furtherreduce poverty and vulnerability.The governments commitment to debt sustainability and thefiscal rule will guide fiscal consolidation,aided by containednon-priority spending and ongoing tax administration efforts.Fiscal projections for 2025-2026 forecast a higher primar

247、ysurplus and a reduced fiscal deficit,focusing on wage billefforts,a declining interest bill,but sustained capital expen-ditures.Debt is expected to continue decreasing as grossfinancing needs decline.Downside risks to the outlook include uncertainties aboutglobal trade policy,geopolitical tensions

248、that could disruptsupply chains and raise prices,and tighter global financingconditions.Domestically,reduced revenues or unexpectedspendingcouldslowerfiscalconsolidation,whileextremeweather could affect agriculture and tourism.Conversely,theapproval of tax reforms by the National Assembly could acce

249、l-erate fiscal consolidation.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices4.65.14.33.53.73.8Private consumption2.65.04.94.04.04.1Government consumption2.40.10.90.71.40.9Gross fixed capital investment1.58.64.33.94.23.9Exports,goods and services18.

250、510.05.85.15.76.1Imports,goods and services8.15.26.15.75.86.1Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices4.65.14.33.53.73.8Agriculture-2.33.52.01.81.81.9Industry2.18.34.13.93.84.1Services5.84.34.43.53.83.9Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)53.354.557.557.958.458.8Inflation(consumer pr

251、ice index)8.30.6-0.42.53.03.0Current account balance(%of GDP)-3.3-1.4-1.4-1.8-1.6-1.7Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)4.44.34.54.24.34.3Fiscal balance(%of GDP)-2.5-3.3-3.8-3.2-3.4-3.1Revenues(%of GDP)16.415.315.015.115.215.2Debt(%of GDP)63.061.159.959.759.459.2Primary balance(%of GDP)2.1

252、1.61.11.31.21.3International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,20.90.90.80.80.70.7Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)1,23.33.02.42.32.22.1Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,214.112.710.09.69.39.0GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)6.00.34.93.13.73.5Source:World Bank,Poverty

253、and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2024-ENAHO.Actual data:2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.2/Projections using mic

254、rosimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202519DOMINICAInfrastructure spending,bolstered by CBI revenues,and arecovery in tourism contributed to a 4.6 percent growth in2024.The completion of infrastructure projects,coupledwi

255、th spending containment and revenue mobilization efforts,has resulted in lower fiscal deficits and declining public debt.However,newfiscalandstructuralreformsarenecessarytosustainprocess.Worseningexternalconditionsandclimaticeventsposesignificantriskstogrowthanddebtsustainability.Key conditions and

256、challengesAs a small island developing state,Dominica faces economicchallenges,including high dependency on tourism and agricul-ture and large public debt,which are exacerbated by climateshocks.In the past two decades,the country faced Hurricane Er-ica in 2015,causing US$480 million in damages,and H

257、urricaneMaria in 2017,resulting in US$1.3 billion in damages and losses.The post-disaster and post-pandemic economic recovery hasbeen supported by infrastructure investments and a rebound intourism.However,potential growth has declined due to reducedtotal factor productivity and lower labor contribu

258、tions,linked toskilled labor emigration.With a pegged exchange rate regime,Dominica lacks effective monetary policy tools,making structuralreforms essential for efficient financial intermediation and highereconomic growth.Pandemic-related support,increased infrastructure spending,andfiscal measures

259、to mitigate inflations impact on the poorest ledto high fiscal deficits and pushed public debt over 100 percent ofGDP from 2020 onwards.A Fiscal Responsibility Law(FRL),intro-duced in 2021,mandates a minimum primary surplus of 2 percentPopulation1Povertymillion0.1.Life expectancy at birth2School enr

260、ollment3yearsprimary(%gross)73.089.9GDP4GDP per capita5current US$,billioncurrent US$0.710537.7Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2022.3/2023.4/2024.5/2024.of GDP by 2026 to reduce public debt below 60 percent of GDP by2035.Since then,fiscal imbalances have been gradually decreasingas recu

261、rrent expenditures return to pre-pandemic levels and rev-enue-boosting measures,such as increasing excise taxes on selectgoods and introducing a stamp duty,are implemented.Further ef-forts are needed to ensure compliance with the FRL.Dominicas vulnerability to hurricanes and other weather eventsfurt

262、her increases the risk,necessitating a focus on resiliencethrough higher fiscal buffers,climate-resilient investments,ex-panded public and private insurance coverage,and enhancedsocial assistance.Recent developmentsGrowth is estimated at 4.6 percent in 2024,driven by im-provements in tourism and rob

263、ust public investment.Tourist ar-rivals have surpassed pre-pandemic levels,with cruise visitorsin 2023-24 up 62 percent from 2019-20.Ongoing public capitalprojects have boosted the construction sector.Agricultural ini-tiatives,such as the Emergency Agricultural Livelihoods and Cli-mate Resilience Pr

264、oject and the Caribbean Agriculture ProductivityFIGURE 1/Real GDP growth and sectoral contributions to realGDP growth-20-16-12-8-4048122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025f 2026f 2027fAgricultureIndustryServicesNet TaxesReal GDP growthPercent,percentage pointsSources:Eastern Caribbean Centr

265、al Bank(ECCB),Government of Dominica,and WorldBank staff calculations.FIGURE 2/Public debt0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025f 2026f 2027fPublic debtExternal public debtPercent of GDPSource:Eastern Caribbean Central Bank(ECCB),Government of Dominica,and WorldBank staff ca

266、lculations.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202520Improvement Activity,are estimated to have boosted agriculturescontribution to growth in 2024.The government undertook an ambitious public investment pro-gram,primarily financed by citizenshi

267、p by investment(CBI)rev-enues,including a new international airport,geothermal projects,and a large housing program.While CBI revenues are strong,theirvolatility poses financing risk.Inflation averaged 1.5 percent in 2024H1,supported by lower en-ergy costs.Despite this,food insecurity remains a conc

268、ern.In 2024,21 percent of respondents to the Food Security and LivelihoodsSurvey reported going a whole day without eating in the previousmonth,and 42 percent were hungry but did not eat,up from 11percent and 18 percent in 2021.Food insecurity is higher in ruralareas and among people under 25,reflec

269、ting households incomeinstability.Additionally,around 34 percent of respondents report-ed experiencing job loss or income reduction in the past year.The fiscal position improved to an estimated deficit of 4.8 percentin FY23/24 down from 7.5 percent in FY22/23 and to 3.1 percent inFY24/25.Expenditure

270、s declined to 60.4 percent of GDP in FY24/25,due to reduced capital spending and the unwinding of fuel subsi-dies and pandemic-related support.Public debt declined to 103.2percent of GDP in FY23/24 and 102.6 percent in FY24/25.CBI rev-enues remained strong at 33 percent of GDP in 2023 and estimat-ed

271、 at 30 percent in 2024.The current account deficit(CAD)improved to an estimated32.9 percent of GDP in 2024 driven by increased tourism rev-enues and lower capital goods imports.This deficit was primarilyfinanced by CBI inflows and,to a lesser extent,recovering foreigndirect investment(FDI).In 2024,i

272、mputed reserves were adequatecovering approximately 4.3 months of imports.The financial sectoris adequately capitalized in aggregate,but its exposure to shocks,weak asset quality,and heavy reliance on credit unions(CUs),whose non-performing loans were at 13.4 percent in 2023,poserisks to its stabili

273、ty.In September 2024,non-performing loans ofcommercial banks stood at 11 percent,exceeding the EasternCaribbean Central Banks(ECCB)5 percent prudential benchmark.OutlookGDP is expected to grow at 4.3 percent in 2025 and remain re-silient,supported by ongoing public investment projects.Inflationis fo

274、recast to decline to 2.2 in 2025,as global commodity price pres-sures ease,then remain at around 2.1 percent.Solid growth prospects and lower inflation should help reducepoverty in the medium term.However,updated data on povertyand other key indicators,such as labor market statistics,are ur-gently n

275、eeded to monitor households wellbeing and guide policy.The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 2.1 percent of GDP in2027,driven by increased excise taxes,solid yet declining CBI in-flows,stable economic performance,and the completion of infra-structure projects.The CAD,financed by CBI and FDI i

276、nflows,is ex-pected to contract over the forecast horizon,reaching 18 percentof GDP in 2027 due to lower imports and higher exports as tourismbenefits from the new international airport.The economic outlook faces considerable downside risks fromvolatile food and fuel prices,trade disruptions,and vol

277、atile CBIrevenues.Additional risks include natural disasters,tighter globalfinancial conditions,fiscal vulnerabilities,and public debt sustain-ability concerns.The financial sector is vulnerable to risks fromthe credit unions.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,

278、at constant market prices5.64.74.64.33.42.8Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices6.74.44.64.33.42.8Agriculture-0.7-2.02.02.22.52.7Industry0.65.04.53.32.52.1Services9.45.35.04.83.73.0Inflation(consumer price index)7.84.22.32.22.12.1Current account balance(%of GDP)-27.0-34.2-32.9-30.6-23.9-18.0Fisc

279、al balance(%of GDP)1-7.5-4.8-3.1-2.6-2.4-2.1Revenues(%of GDP)65.261.157.350.942.240.7Debt(%of GDP)1108.3103.2102.699.095.993.2Primary balance(%of GDP)1-4.5-2.10.00.40.40.6GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)4.34.04.13.93.12.6Source:ECCB,Government of Dominica and World Bank staff calculations.Emissions data

280、 sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=estimate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Fiscal balances are reported in fiscal years(July 1st-June 30th).This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202521DOMINICANREPUBLICThe D

281、ominican economy grew by 5 percent in 2024,drivenby monetary easing and public investment.Increased remit-tances and improved labor market conditions supportedpoverty reduction.Nevertheless,structural challengespersist,including low revenue mobilization and inequality.Growth is expected to moderate

282、in the medium term due touncertainty around reform implementation,reduced fiscalstimulus,and weaker external demand.Key conditions and challengesThe Dominican Republic(DR)stands out in the Latin Americaand Caribbean(LAC)region for its rapid growth and significantsocial progress over the last two dec

283、ades.Between 2005 and2023,GDP grew an average of 5.2 percent,poverty incidencemore than halved,from 48 to 18 percent(US$6.85 per day,2017PPPs),and income inequality declined.Nonetheless,importantdisparities in living conditions and access to services betweenurban and rural areas persist.Sound moneta

284、ry and fiscal poli-cies maintained macroeconomic stability and supported labormarket dynamism.However,DR faces fiscal pressures.Recent shocks,including thepandemic,surging commodity prices,and floods,have strained thecountrys finances.Debt remains above pre-pandemic levels,withrevenue mobilization a

285、t 16.3 percent of GDP and rising spendingdemands.In 2024,energy sector losses required transfers of 1.2percent of GDP,while interest payments consumed 3.4 percent ofGDP,limiting public investment.The new fiscal responsibility lawPopulation1Poverty2millionmillions living on less than$6.85/day10.92.0L

286、ife expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)74.294.7GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$123.711305.9Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2023(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2023.5/2024.6/2024.(FRL)caps primary expenditure growth at 7 percent starting in 2025and aims to re

287、duce debt to 40 percent by 2035.To create morefiscal space,the country would need to improve tax collection andspending efficiency.Re-elected in May 2024,President Abinader,backed by a bicameral majority,could advance long-awaited re-forms like the energy pact and pension overhaul.However,despitecon

288、gressional backing,the recently proposed tax reform faced so-cial resistance and was ultimately withdrawn,casting uncertaintyover future reforms.Increasing productivity is also essential,including by:(i)improvingeducation;(ii)boosting competitiveness;(iii)revamping the innova-tion strategy;and(iv)im

289、proving service delivery.These should gohand in hand with improvements in social protection systems.Recent developmentsGDP expanded 5 percent in 2024.Service sectors,like hospitalityand financial services,maintained momentum,expanding 9.6 and8.3 percent,respectively,offsetting the 5.2 percent contra

290、ction inFIGURE 1/Energy losses in distribution(share of total purchased)051015202530354020092011201320152017201920212023PercentSource:World Bank staff calculations based on Ministry of Energy data.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita0100000200000300000400000500000600000

291、051015202530354045502008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rateUpper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects info

292、rmation available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202522mining.Manufacturing expanded by 4.3 percent,while construc-tion grew 2.1 percent despite elevated input costs.The current account deficit narrowed to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2024,drivenbya5.9percentriseinremittances(8.7percentofG

293、DP),and a7 percent increase in exports,outpacing import growth.Foreign di-rect investments(FDI)remained stable at 3.6 percent of GDP,butnet capital inflows fell by 2.5 p.p.as residents accumulated foreignassets.Consequently,international reserves fell by US$2.1 billionto 10.8 of GDP(4.5 months of im

294、ports),and the peso depreciatedby 5 percent.Inflation declined to 3.3 percent y-o-y in 2024,within the centraltarget range(4 percent+/-1 percent).The Central Bank resumedmonetary easing in August 2024,lowering the policy rate from 7to 5.75 percent by December.Complementary measures includ-ed RD$140

295、billion in redeemed securities and RD$35.35 billion inloans,contributing to a drop in lending rates,and a 10.6 percentgrowth in private credit.In2024,officialpovertyincidencefell4percentagepointscomparedto 2023,supported by rising real labor incomes.Urban povertydropped 4.4 p.p.,while rural declined

296、 1.8 p.p.Formal employmentgrewby170,000,mainlyintransport,communications,andservices.Labor participation reached 65.3 percent in 2024,peaking at 70percent in the East and nearing 61 percent in the South.The fiscal deficit declined to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2024.Rev-enues grew by 13.1 percent,bolstere

297、d by a large advance fromthe AERODOM contract.Meanwhile,spending rose by 11.4 per-cent,fueled by a 17.2 increase in interest payments,a 12.4 rise ingoods and servicesmainly education-related expendituresanda11.1percentuptickinwageslinkedtohealthanddefensereforms.The Consolidated Public Sector debt s

298、tood at 57.5 percent of GDP.OutlookEconomic growth is anticipated to slow to 4 percent in 2025,re-flecting a weaker global economy and the fading impact of fiscalstimulus of 2024.Over the medium term,growth will be drivenby strong consumption and investment,supported by structuralreforms in energy,w

299、ater,and labor,along with efforts to improveeducation and attract FDI.Growth is forecasted at 4.5 percent in2027.A robust labor market and stable inflation are expected tosupport poverty reduction in 2025 and in 2026,reaching 15.4 and15.0 percent,respectively.Fiscal consolidation is expected to cont

300、inue,anchored on the im-plementation of the FRL,the phase-out of untargeted subsidies,and measures to improve spending efficiency(e.g.,procurementreforms,and the consolidation of institutions).Consequently,thepublic debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decrease progressively.Comprehensive revenue and sp

301、ending reforms can speed up fiscalconsolidation and address growing social demands.The macroeconomic outlook faces downside risks,and it is ex-tremely uncertain.First,greater than expected shifts in globaltradepoliciescouldhindertrade,remittancesandgrowth.Second,weather-related events,could disrupt

302、agriculture andtourism,disproportionately impacting the poor.Third,despitefiscal support to electricity distribution companies,persistent in-efficiencies have led to more frequent blackouts,which couldundermine economic growth.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth

303、,at constant market prices5.22.25.04.04.24.4Private consumption5.52.74.94.24.34.5Government consumption8.52.44.0-0.10.71.8Gross fixed capital investment5.12.03.73.33.12.9Exports,goods and services13.1-1.66.83.24.04.5Imports,goods and services14.00.12.31.72.12.3Real GDP growth,at constant factor pric

304、es4.72.15.04.04.24.4Agriculture3.43.64.94.44.24.2Industry1.6-0.83.83.23.43.6Services6.23.25.54.34.44.7Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)60.661.762.361.562.663.4Inflation(consumer price index)8.84.83.33.33.54.0Current account balance(%of GDP)-5.8-3.6-3.4-3.6-3.4-3.2Net foreign dire

305、ct investment inflow(%of GDP)3.63.63.63.43.53.6Fiscal balance(%of GDP)1-3.2-3.3-3.1-3.1-3.0-2.7Revenues(%of GDP)15.315.816.315.415.315.3Debt(%of GDP)258.658.357.557.357.256.9Primary balance(%of GDP)1-0.4-0.10.40.50.70.9International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)3,40.80.90.80.80.80.7Lower middle-in

306、come poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)3,44.03.93.23.02.82.8Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)3,421.517.915.815.415.014.4GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)0.3-0.72.52.52.82.8Source:World Bank,Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments.Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.Notes:e=est

307、imate,f=forecast.Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise.1/Fiscal balances are shown for the non-financial public sector(i.e.excluding central bank quasi-fiscal balances).2/Consolidated public sector debt.3/Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization,using 2023-ECNFT-Q03.Actual data:

308、2023.Nowcast:2024.Forecasts are from 2025 to 2027.4/Projections using microsimulation methodology.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202523ECUADOREcuador faces structural challenges centered aroundlow-growth,low quality employment,and strained

309、 fiscalaccounts.The government passed reforms that improvedthe fiscal stance,but consolidation needs to be sustained.Medium-term priorities include addressing the energy crisisand enhancing security.Slow growth expects to stall povertyreduction.Removing barriers to private sector developmentwill boo

310、st investment and unlock sustainable growth.Key conditions and challengesEcuadors average growth was 1.5 percent between 2015and 2023,significantly lower than the 5.1 percent during the20042014 commodity boom.Structural issues such as rigidlabor regulations,low-quality education,barriers to business

311、-es,price distortions,preferential treatment for state-ownedenterprises,and trade restrictions,along with climatic shocksand rising crime,have hindered productivity growth andpoverty reduction.Job quality remains a challenge,with over half the workforce in theinformal sector and 97 percent of formal

312、 businesses being microor small enterprises.Women are disproportionately in low-quali-ty jobs,making up 67.1 percent of part-time and below-minimum-wage jobs.Nearly one in four Ecuadorians lives in poverty,and onein ten in extreme poverty,with inequality largely unchanged overthe past decade.To revi

313、talize growth,Ecuador must boost privateinvestment in competitive sectors like mining and agriculture by re-ducing barriers to private sector development,strengthening theinsolvency framework,promoting competition and trade,and im-proving labor regulations.Population1Poverty2millionmillions living o

314、n less than$6.85/day18.15.3Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment4yearsprimary(%gross)77.997.3GDP5GDP per capita6current US$,billioncurrent US$118.26515.7Sources:WDI,MFMod,and official data.1/2024.2/2023(2017 PPPs).3/2022.4/2023.5/2024.6/2024.During the commodity boom,growth relied on unsustaina

315、ble fiscalspending,eroding fiscal buffers critical for a dollarized economy.The 2008 debt default to finance a large investment program hassince limited access to private international markets.Despiteprogress in reducing the fiscal deficit from 9.8 percent in 2016 tonear balance in 2022 and stabiliz

316、ing public debt,fiscal revenues re-main volatile due to oil price dependence,and spending remainshigh due to the activity of state-owned enterprises and subsidizedfuel and energy prices.Recent developmentsReal GDP contracted by an estimated 2.5 percent in 2024.Energy shortages,crime and political un

317、certainty led to de-clines in private consumption and investment.The worstdrought in 60 years caused nationwide blackouts and powerrationing.Despite a decline in the homicide rate,it remainedhistorically high.Output fell across all sectors,especially inmanufacturingandservices.Fiscaltighteningfurthe

318、rcon-tributed to the downturn.However,exports increased,drivenby agriculture and fishing products.Inflation averaged 1.6 per-cent for the year.FIGURE 1/Real GDP growth and contributions to real GDP growth-4-20246810202220232024e2025f2026f2027fConsumptionInvestmentInventoriesExportsImportsGDP growthP

319、ercent,percentage pointsSources:Banco Central de Ecuador and World Bank estimates.FIGURE 2/Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP percapita01000200030004000500060007000051015202530354045502008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026International poverty rateLower middle-income pov.rate

320、Upper middle-income pov.rateReal GDP pcReal GDP per capita(constant LCU)Poverty rate(%)Source:World Bank.Notes:See footnotes in table on the next page.This outlook reflects information available as of April 10,2025.Macro Poverty Outlook/April 202524Labor market shocks led to a 3 percent decline in r

321、eal labor in-comes,raising poverty to 31.8 percent(US$6.85/day,2017 PPP)and stagnating the Gini index at 45.2.Unemployment remainedlow at 2.5 percent,but informality rose to 58 percent.The fiscal deficit narrowed from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 1.4 per-cent in 2024,driven by revenue growth from increase

322、d VAT,tem-porary taxes,and higher withholding requirements.Public debtrose to 56 percent of GDP due to lower GDP and a negative fis-cal balance.The IMF approved a 48-month EFF program for US$4billion,including US$1.5 billion disbursements in 2024,facilitatingadditional financing.The current account

323、balance posted an estimated record-highsurplus of 4.8 percent of GDP,with higher exports,lower im-ports,and increased remittances.International reserves grewby US$2.4 billion to US$6.9 billion(5.7 percent of GDP and 2.2months of imports)by the end of 2024,though still low byinternational standards.O

324、utlookThe impact of commodity price declines may compound thepotential effects of trade uncertainty and limit growth.Conse-quently,GDP is projected to partially recover in 2025,increasingto 1.9 percent,supported by energy investments and reducedpolitical uncertainty following the April elections.Ass

325、uming nor-mal weather conditions,agricultural and fisheries exports areexpected to maintain an upward trend,supporting medium-termgrowth of around 2 percent.Limited economic growth will con-strain household income growth,leading to a mild decline inpoverty to 31.3 percent in 2027(US$6.85/day,2017 PP

326、P).Recur-ring rural climate shocks,urban security challenges,and energyshortages could again harm the poorest.The fiscal deficit is expected to surpass 2 percent this year due tolower oil revenues but narrow afterwards,driven by an anticipat-ed oil price recovery and fiscal consolidation efforts.Pub

327、lic debtis expected to peak at 57.8 percent of GDP in 2026 and stabilizethereafter.The current account surplus is forecast to narrow dueto lower export prices and higher imports,as domestic incomerecovers.International reserves are projected to increase but willnot reach adequacy standards in the me

328、dium term.Inflation isexpected to remain low.Several risks might impact this outlook.Domestic risks includenatural hazards that might affect growth and further strain fis-cal accounts.Risks persist in the energy supply sector dueto high dependence on hydroelectric generation and elec-tricity imports

329、.An eventual resurgence of crime is also asource of uncertainty.Furthermore,after the April elections,there could be a redefinition of policy priorities.In the medi-um term,significantly relaxing fiscal consolidation plans andfacing out structural reforms would impair growth.On theexternal front,Ecu

330、adors reliance on oil revenues makes itvulnerable to volatile oil prices and weaker than expectedgrowth in U.S.or China.Recent history and projections202220232024e2025f2026f2027fReal GDP growth,at constant market prices5.92.0-2.51.92.02.1Private consumption6.04.2-2.31.81.92.0Government consumption1.

331、41.7-1.6-1.71.41.0Gross fixed capital investment9.20.2-8.53.72.62.7Exports,goods and services7.90.82.53.83.23.1Imports,goods and services9.50.60.03.02.82.8Real GDP growth,at constant factor prices5.72.0-2.51.92.02.1Agriculture3.92.6-1.02.52.02.0Industry5.5-0.3-2.11.51.51.5Services6.12.9-2.81.92.32.4

332、Employment rate(%of working-age population,15 years+)63.463.163.163.163.163.1Inflation(consumer price index)3.52.21.62.11.81.8Current account balance(%of GDP)1.81.94.82.92.62.0Net foreign direct investment inflow(%of GDP)0.80.30.40.81.01.0Fiscal balance(%of GDP)0.0-3.5-1.4-2.3-1.5-1.1Revenues(%of GD

333、P)38.936.038.736.937.337.2Debt(%of GDP)57.254.356.057.457.857.6Primary balance(%of GDP)0.5-2.6-0.3-1.3-0.7-0.4International poverty rate($2.15 in 2017 PPP)1,23.23.85.85.55.55.5Lower middle-income poverty rate($3.65 in 2017 PPP)1,29.510.312.712.512.312.2Upper middle-income poverty rate($6.85 in 2017 PPP)1,229.929.631.831.731.531.3GHG emissions growth(mtCO2e)2.30.2-2.20.10.10.2Source:World Bank,Pove