1、Africa outlook 2023:the challenges aheadResilience amid disruption LONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURGAON Economist Intelligence Skootr Spaces,Unit No.1 12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9 DLF Cyber City,Phase

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7、lysisour risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations.Available products:Financial Risk and Operational Risk.Industry analysisfive-year forecasts,analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key indu

8、stries in 60 major economies.These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends,available via EIU Viewpoint.Speaker Bureaubook the experts behind the award-winning economic and political forecasts.Our team is available for presentations and panel moderation as well

9、 as boardroom briefings covering their specialisms.Explore Speaker Bureau for more speaker information.AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20221 African economies will face turbulent times in 2023 as a range of internal and exter

10、nal shocks undermine the regions growth prospects and threaten stability,but most of the region will weather the storm and continue to grow.Resource-intensive economies and major commodity exporters will face challenging market conditions amid a global economic slowdown,but the outlook is far from g

11、loomy as export prices remain reasonably high and competition remains intense for Africas resources.Domestic price pressures will remain elevatedalthough inflation will ease back from the highs of 2022and monetary policy will tighten across much of Africa,while the cost of international capital will

12、 rise substantially for some economies.Major concerns surround the heavy burden of debt servicing,instability created by election cycles,geopolitics and war,as well as the lingering threat of food insecurity caused by conflict and adverse weather conditions.Africas economic recovery has been disrupt

13、ed in 2022 by a range of internal and external shocksincluding adverse weather conditions,rapidly rising rates of inflation,higher borrowing costs and softer demand in major export markets.Some of these factors will subdue growth prospects in the year ahead,but the region overall is expected to hold

14、 steady rather than suffer a major downturn in economic growthboth North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to grow by 3.2%in 2023.We expect almost all countries in Africa to continue to grow,although real GDP growth rates will vary considerably across the region and some states will stagnat

15、e and teeter on the brink of recession.Africa outlook 2023:the challenges aheadAfrican economic growth(real GDP;%change,year on year)Source:EIU.North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa20121314151617181920212223-4-20246AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligenc

16、e Unit Limited 20222Heavyweights remain stuck in slow-growth modeCrucially,regional heavyweights will remain stuck in slow-growth mode,amid more challenging domestic and external economic conditions.South Africa will grow by just 1.5%in 2023 as higher interest rates,power supply issues and weak dema

17、nd weigh on domestic and export-oriented business activity.The country could easily enter a technical recessiontwo consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growthin 2023.Similar conditions will hamper growth in Nigeria,although the economy will benefit from resilient commodities trade and dynamic c

18、onsumer goods and services markets in major cities,pushing growth to 3.1%in 2023.Egypt will post growth of just under 3%,which will be less than half of that recorded in 2022,with the economy propped up as interest rates rise by a positive external contribution as real exports are supported by deval

19、uation of the pound and liquefied natural gas(LNG)sales to energy-strapped Europe.Kenya is recovering from the uncertainties of national elections held in August 2022 and will be the fastest-growing major economy in Africa during 2023,posting real GDP growth in the region of 5%.Source:EIU.African ec

20、onomic growth,2023(real GDP;%change,year on year)216311445654243453465537744322447724546443465614222363406+12345AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20223African countries are confronted with risks that could disrupt their economi

21、esScenarioProbabilityImpactRisk intensity(probability x impact)Extreme weather events:Occurrence of extensive and prolonged droughts and flooding in fragile areas-especially across the Sahel and Horn of Africa-exacerbating issues of insecurity,people displacement and regional conflict.HighVery high2

22、0Regional conflict zones:Regional conflict hotspots(including Mali,Burkina Faso,Ethiopia,eastern DRC and northern Mozambique)experience more intense fighting that disrupts local economies and draws in more players-African Union peacekeepers,Western allies,mercenaries(Russia).HighVery high20Financial

23、 pressures create debt defaults:Global monetary tightening pushes larger African economies beyond the brink and into default,with most countries not yet engaged in a common framework for debt restructuring.HighVery high20Disputed national elections:National elections-especially in DRC,Libya,Mali,Nig

24、eria and Zimbabwe-prove highly volatile and disputed results prompt mass protests and social instability.High Very high20US-China tensions:Tension between the US and China ramps up,prompted by the war in Ukraine or security concerns in Taiwan,which creates pressure for African states to take sides.M

25、oderatehigh 15New coronavirus variants:New variants of the coronavirus spread across Africa and in key trade partners,which disrupt local economies and global supply chains.ModerateModerate9Escalation of war in Europe:Conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggers open conflict between Russia and NATO

26、 members,further destabilising Europe,global supply chains and commodity markets.Very lowVery high5Intensity colour key:1 to 4 5 to 8 9 to 12 13 to 16 17 to 25Note.Intensity is a product of the probability and impact ratings,where“very low”scores 1 and“very high”scores 5.Source:EIU.Be aware of major

27、 downside risk factorsRisks to the regions outlook are firmly weighed to the downside and the outcome for growth and stability across Africa could be much worse than what we currently expect in 2023.Heightened geopolitical tensions,the lingering effects of the covid-19 pandemic,ongoing supply-chain

28、disruption,business and consumer price pressures,the rising cost of international and domestic finance,disruptive national elections,social grievances and adverse weather events are all present and will create an unsettled backdrop for the continent throughout 2023.Risk-mitigation strategies to deal

29、 with higher operating and investment costs,further supply-chain disruption and much softer demand among end-clients will probably feature prominently in the business plans for those investing in and dealing with African counterparts in 2023.AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DI

30、SRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20224Exporters will face challenging market conditionsAfrican exporters will face a more challenging external business environment in 2023,although the outlook is far from gloomy.Major export operations are highly exposed to the fortunes of the EU,the

31、 US and China and some businesses will face much softer demand in these markets in the year ahead.We expect the EU(and the UK)to slip into recession in 2023,and US economic growth will slow sharply as high inflation and monetary policy tightening take their toll on household spending and business in

32、vestment.The performance of the Chinese economy will be subdued by its own internal pressures,which include lingering effects of the pandemic and trouble in the real estate sector.However,there are mitigating factors that should help Africa to avoid a major dip in export performance in 2023.Commodit

33、y pricesespecially for energy products,metals and mineralswill remain volatile and most likely ease back in 2023.Nevertheless,they will remain relatively high by historical standards after having experienced two years of solid gains in 2021 and 2022 and major commodity exporters will continue to ben

34、efit from a terms of trade boost to their external balances in the short term.In addition,international competition will remain intense to secure long-term access to Africas strategically important energy products and industrial inputs,which together with international sanctions on Russian entitiesc

35、ausing investors and buyers to look elsewhereshould help to prevent a contraction in demand for African commodity exports in 2023.In the energy sector,the decision by European countries to replace Russian oil and gas with alternative supplies will provide a short-to medium-term boost to demand for A

36、frican energy suppliers and a potential source of new investment for future projects in countries such as Nigeria,Angola,Gabon,Libya,Algeria,Egypt,Congo-Brazzaville,Ghana,Equatorial Guinea and Chad.Similarly,African Direction of trade for African countries exports,2021(%of total recorded goods expor

37、ts)Source:EIU.EUUSChinaAfricaOther/unknownAlgeriaAngolaCameroonDRCCongo(Brazzaville)Cte dIvoireEgyptEthiopiaGabonGhanaKenyaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaSenegalSierra LeoneSouth AfricaTanzaniaTunisiaUgandaZambiaZimbabwe020406080100AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGE

38、S AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20225mining venturesespecially those in Botswana,the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC),Namibia,Nigeria,Sierra Leone,South Africa,Tanzania,Zambia and Zimbabwecould receive more attention should Western-based mining companies an

39、d commodity traders increasingly shun Russian supplies of copper,cobalt,diamonds,gold,iron ore,manganese,nickel,platinum,palladium,tungsten,uranium,vanadium and zinc,among other products.Less resource-intensive and more diversified trading economies will continue to be among the regions fastest-grow

40、ing economiesincluding Kenya,Cte dIvoire and Mauritius.Export-oriented manufacturing operations will face more difficult and uncertain times in 2023characterised by higher costs and weaker demandbut even here the erosion of business activity will be contained by the hard work over the past decade to

41、 improve global and regional value-chain integration,to build strong relations with international partners and to enhance international competitiveness.Exchange rates will remain under pressureMost African currencies have lost substantial value against the US dollar during 2022 and we expect exchang

42、e-rate weakness to continue into 2023,albeit to a lesser degree.The currencies of the troubled states of Sudan and Zimbabwe will be among the weakest in the world during 2023,while Ghana,Malawi,Sierra Leone,Ethiopia and Egyptwhich will all suffer from elevated rates of inflationwill see their curren

43、cies depreciate by more than 10%against the US dollar.African majors of Nigeria,South Africa,Angola,Algeria and Kenya will not be exempt from currency weakness and will experience further depreciation of their currencies against the US dollar in 2023,largely due to tighter global financial markets,w

44、eaker external demand and price pressures at home.African exchange-rate adjustment in 2023(annual average%change;LCU:US$)Source:EIU.SudanZimbabweGhanaMalawiSierra LeoneEthiopiaEgyptMadagascarTunisiaNigeriaBotswanaKenyaUgandaSouth AfricaAngolaDRCAlgeriaTanzaniaMozambiqueCte dIvoireChadCARNigerMaliGab

45、onCongo(Brazzaville)CameroonBurkina FasoZambia-50-40-30-20-10010SenegalDjiboutiEritreaMauritiusMoroccoLibyaLCU depreciation v US dollarLCU appreciation v US dollarAFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20226Tighter monetary policy a

46、nd lower inflation ratesAbout two-thirds of African states have increased their domestic policy interest rates in 2022to curb inflation and ease pressure on exchange ratesand the majority of Africa will raise domestic policy rates further in 2023.African governments will need to tread carefully to p

47、rotect fragile confidence among households and businesses and to avoid disrupting short-to medium-term economic growth prospects.Policymakers faced by the most pressing need to tighten monetary policy are likely to be found in Ghana,Ethiopia,Egypt,South Africa and Zimbabwe.Annual average consumer pr

48、ice inflation will be in double digits for about 42%of African states in 2022 and elevated price pressures have become problematic for governments,businesses and households across the continent.Price pressures will remain high but ease back in 2023 in all African states except Zimbabwe,partly as a r

49、esult of monetary policy adjustments and softer commodity prices.Debt servicing will become more problematicAfrican governments have ramped up their borrowingdomestically and internationallyand public-sector debt ratios(relative to GDP)have pushed back towards the highs last seen in the early 2000s

50、just before the enormous debt restructuring of 2005,implemented under the umbrella of the heavily indebted poor countries(HIPC)initiative.On average,the public-sector debt/GDP ratio will remain above 60%for Africa in 2022 and 2023 and some African countries will far exceed this level.The need to ser

51、vice and roll over large amounts of debt at a time when domestic and international borrowing costs are on the rise will weigh heavily on some countries in 2023 and things could get even more painful in 2024 when more capital repayments fall due.Ghana,Tunisia,Egypt,Congo-Brazzaville,Zambia,Zimbabwe a

52、nd Mozambique have enormous amounts of debt(relative to GDP)and their governments will grapple with debt-servicing burdens that eat up a substantial share of their revenue in 2023.Elsewhere,major economies of Algeria,Angola,Ethiopia,Gabon,Kenya,Nigeria and South Africa have seemingly manageable leve

53、ls of public debt but these countries will suffer from high and rising debt-servicing costsespecially Nigeria where the debt/GDP ratio is low but debt is hugely expensive to service.Consequently,pressure will mount to implement economic reformsincluding changes to subsidy regimes and tax structuresa

54、nd cut back on public-sector spending,although large-scale changes will most likely be put off until upcoming elections settle and the political path becomes clearer.Source:EIU.African policy interest rate,2023Monetary policyadjustmentTighterLooserNeutralAFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESIL

55、IENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20227African inflation(annual average;%)Source:EIU.2022202301020304050ZimbabweSudanEthiopiaSierra LeoneGhanaMalawiAngolaBurkina FasoNigeriaBurundiGuineaLiberiaSo Tom and PrncipeMozambiqueEgyptZambiaAlgeriaRwandaGambiaMadagascarTunisiaMali

56、Cabo VerdeCongo(Democratic Republic)LesothoMauritaniaLibyaMauritiusBotswanaGuinea-BissauKenyaCentral African RepublicEritreaNamibiaEswatiniCte dIvoireUgandaSouth AfricaSenegalTogoCameroonGabonTanzaniaNigerDjiboutiChadEquatorial GuineaCongo(Brazzaville)ComorosMoroccoSeychellesBeninAFRICA OUTLOOK 2023

57、:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20228In the meantime,more African states will head towards external debt distress in 2023 and 2024African states are required to repay about US$75bn of external borrowing(medium-and long-term capital repayments t

58、hat fall due)in 2023 and a similar amount in 2024.Foreign creditors have offered pandemic-related debt relief and relatively lowby historical standardsinterest rates in recent years,but these lines of international financial support have come to an end.The debt-servicing burden will become more pain

59、ful because of higher interest rates,weaker currencies against the US dollar and softer capital inflows,while rolling over existing debt or accruing new debt will become much more of a challenge.Already,many African states have found it difficult to issue new Eurobonds in 2022 and yields in secondar

60、y marketswhich indicate where future refinancing costs are headedhave risen sharply.A widespread external debt crisis across the continent seems unlikely,but some highly leveraged states will face acute financing difficulties and a very uncertain period.Elections will pose a risk to stabilityAfrica

61、will hold head of state(presidential or prime ministerial)or national legislature elections in 17 states during 2023 and preparations will ramp up for national elections in a further 13 states in 2024.Election time can be very unstable in Africa and the 2023-24 cycle will be no different with a high

62、 risk of political protests,mass demonstrations and strikes in a range of countries.Social unrest could easily be stoked by disinformation campaigns and disgruntled losers,as well as public discontent with political institutions,ruling elites and poor public services.Worsening socioeconomic conditio

63、ns in some countries driven by subdued wage growth,the rising cost of living and food security concerns could prove problematic for incumbent or new government administrations.Upcoming elections in Algeria,Egypt,Ethiopia,the DRC,Libya,Madagascar,Nigeria,South Africa and Zimbabwe could prove to be fl

64、ashpoints for disruptive civil unrest in 2023.African public-sector debt(%of GDP)Source:EIU.20000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223020406080100120African public debt,2023Source:EIU.6030907545No data(%of GDP)AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist I

65、ntelligence Unit Limited 20229Source:EIU.African election cycleAngolaLibyaEgyptSudanSouthSudanEthiopiaEritreaKenyaUgandaTanzaniaZambiaZimbabweBotswanaNamibiaElection for head of state and/ornational legislature in.MadagascarMozambiqueMalawiComorosMauritiusSeychellesDjiboutiSomaliaDRCRwandaBurundiNig

66、eriaChadTunisiaAlgeriaMoroccoMauritaniaSenegalCte dIvoireLiberiaSierra LeoneGuineaGuinea-BissauThe GambiaCabo VerdeGabonCongo(Brazzaville)GhanaTogoCameroonBeninEswatiniLesothoSouthAfricaEquatorial GuineaSo Tom&PrncipeBurkina FasoNigerMaliCentralAfricanRepublic20232024Intense geopolitics will roll in

67、to the new yearThe EU,the US and China have doubled down on their efforts to build economic,political and security relations in Africa in recent years,and competition between these three major global powers will intensify in the year ahead.The EU retains pole position among international investors i

68、n Africaas measured by the stock of foreign direct investmentand is the regions leading trade partner.Leaders from the EU and the African Union(AU)met at the sixth EUAU Summit held in Brussels in February and agreed on the principles of a new partnership and joint vision for 2030.In addition,the Sum

69、mit saw the EU agree to boost the supply of covid-19 vaccines and direct about 150bn of its Global Gateway investment funds to Africa.The US has a new Africa Strategy,which it hopes will revitalise ties with the continent following a nose-dive in relations during the presidency of Donald Trump,while

70、 the administration of Joe Biden is planning to hold a US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington in December 2022the first since 2014 and the second such meeting ever.Africa will play an important role in Chinas outreach through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative and its Dual Circulation model of d

71、evelopment,which seek to secure production bases and strategic AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202210supply chains in Africa,as well as open end-markets for Chinese goods and services on the continent.The era of Chinese state

72、-backed big loans and mega-projects may be coming to an end,but a concerted effort to drive Chinese private-sector interests into Africa is under way.The projection of soft power will feature heavily in Chinese engagement with the continent,which includes continued covid-19 vaccine diplomacy,support

73、 for regional integration and branching into peace and security initiatives.Russia has made a concerted push to secure political support across Africa in recent years,which has entailed intense diplomacy,financial aid and military support,but its ambitions on the continent are likely to be hampered

74、by its war in Ukraine during 2023.The difficult economic situation in Russia and imposition of international sanctions will complicate African trade and investment deals with Moscow,while military support will wane as forces are redeployed to Europe(including personnel managed by the Wagner Group,a

75、Russian paramilitary organisation)and losses are incurred there.A second Russia-Africa Summit is scheduled to take place in late 2022 in Ethiopia,but the uncertain nature of the war in Ukraine and its political implications could scale down or derail the gathering.Russia has strong alliances in Afri

76、ca,which it will maintainespecially in the Central African Republic,Mali,Libya,Algeria,Egypt,Sudan and Mozambiquebut it may find it hard to expand its geopolitical influence or footprint.Benefits of digitalisation felt more widelyAfrica has a track record of rapidly adopting technology and innovatio

77、n to provide practical solutions for the challenges facing its governments and industries to improve efficiencies,remove barriers and explore new products or services.Over the past five years or so,digitalisation projects and broader digital transformation strategies have been encouraged by improvin

78、g telecommunications networks,increased(mobile)internet access,advances in information and communications technology(ICT)products and services,and strong demand from rapidly growing urban populations.Since 2020 the pandemic has accelerated African digital innovation in a wide range of sectors and in

79、creased demand for more digital infrastructure and services across the continent.Many governments,and the African Union,have adopted digital transformation strategies through to 2030 and have already implemented regulatory changes with the aims among othersof pursuing universal digital access,encour

80、aging private-sector investment,opening new markets and driving socioeconomic development.The push and pull for digital services will continue unabated in 2023 and beyond,which will drive opportunities in a wide range of sectors.Digitalisation initiatives and strategies are likely to benefit agricul

81、tural supply chains,manufacturing operations,transport and logistics services,formal and informal retailing,health and education provision,recreation and entertainment,financial services and government services.In turn,this should help to support thriving ICT sectors and technology hubs largely base

82、d in Nigeria,South Africa,Kenya and Egypt,as well as spur foreign investment into the African market.In addition,Africa retains a large communications gapwhether this is measured through mobile network coverage,smartphone use or internet access more broadlyand intense demand as well as competition t

83、o fill that gap,which will spur more infrastructure and service provision investment in the year ahead.AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202211Major power projects will gain tractionSome major energy projects will make positive

84、 steps towards bringing more power generation capacity on stream in 2023 and in the immediate years that follow,which will open up the prospect of increased supplies to feed domestic industry and households,as well as facilitate cross-border transfers.The enormous Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GER

85、D)and South Africas large Redstone concentrated solar power(CSP)plantare nearing completion and are part of a large pipeline of hydroelectric,solar and wind projects that will see renewable installed capacity accelerate from 2023 onwards.In addition,various natural gas and LNG projects will be commi

86、ssioned or ramp up production in 2023 to help to facilitate exports and supply gas-fired power stations.Construction of the GERD is scheduled for completion in 2023 and power generation will be ramped up in subsequent years.Two turbines were commissioned in early 2022 with an installed capacity of 7

87、50 MW and a third filling of the dam took place in August and September.The GERDs total installed power generation capacity will rise to 5,000-5,500 MW once building works are complete and all 13 Drivers of and constraints on business in Africa High prices and strong global demand Increased foreign

88、investment interest Long-term development plans Sustained domestic demand/regional trade Foreign investment interest and global value chain integration Major policy focus(supportive)Pipeline of projects(energy and transport)Real estate and utilities development Investing in domestic/regional capacit

89、y Higher farm-gate prices and strong demand(domestic and foreign)High and rising input and operating costs Risk to some projects from exposure to Russia Pressure from rapidly rising input and operating costs(fuel,power,etc)Pressure on labour costs(wages/training)Elevated costs for key inputs and fue

90、l bills Potential delay to some projects due to financing constraints Higher input costs(fuel/fertilisers)squeezing margins and elevated import billsEnergy,metals&materialsLight manufacturing&automotiveConstruction&building materials Thriving urban markets(pandemic recovery)Public-and private-sector

91、 investment plans Major policy focus(national/multilateral)Increasing demand(positive pandemic efects)Growing competition and infrastructure Identified as critical success factor Trade facilitation(hard/soft)and cross-border demand Policy to boost financial inclusion(fintech etc)Rising(aspirational)

92、middle class Inflation squeeze on household incomes Costs of adapting to new delivery models Major investment required(infrastructure/services)Long-term funding issues and constraints Supply chain disruption and delayed deliveries Much higher operating costs(fuel)Tighter credit conditions(interest r

93、ates/risk aversion)Retail&fast-movingconsumer goodsDigital&telecomsTransport&logisticsFinancial servicesHealthcare(pharma)&educationAgriculture&foodprocessingSectorPositive driversNegative driversAFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Limit

94、ed 202212planned turbines are fully operationalmaking the facility the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.The project is a game changer for power provision in the Horn of Africa but is highly contentious given the potential impact on downstream water flows along the Blue Nile affecting Egyp

95、t and Sudan.Negotiations between Ethiopia,Egypt and Sudan over the filling of the GERD have stalled since April 2021,but talks are likely to resume in 2023 mediated by the AU as Ethiopia pushes ahead regardless.Climate change and food security will trouble policymakersEgypt will host the 2022 UN Cli

96、mate Change Conference(COP27)in Novemberand the UAE will host COP28 in late 2023where African leaders will continue to lobby hard for much more foreign investment and international financial support from the worlds richest nations to pursue climate change adaptation projects and help build resilienc

97、e across sectors,communities and ecosystems.African governments will push hard on a third front to secure equitable transfers for climate change-related loss and damagelong a hotly disputed and unresolved area of international climate change policy.Any immediate and substantive progress in these thr

98、ee areasmore finance for climate change Grand Ethiopian Renaissance DamETH I OP I ADJIBOUTISOMALIASOUTH SUDANSUDANEGYPTNile500 kmSource:EIU.SAUDI ARABIAThird and final filling in August 2022 and all construction works to be complete in 2023.Final installed power generation capacity of 5.2 GW(two of

99、13 turbines operational).Total water storage capacity of 74bn cu metres,afecting 60%of water flowing into the Nile.Major source of tension between Ethiopia,Egypt and Sudan negotiations to resume.Central America(Guatemala and Honduras)Sahel(Burkina Faso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania and Niger)HaitiNigeriaDemo

100、cratic Republic of CongoCentral African RepublicMalawiZimbabweSouth SudanMadagascarSri LankaSudanYemenSyriaAfghanistanPakistanEthiopiaSomaliaKenyaConflict/insecurityDisplacementDry conditionsEconomic shocksPolitical instability/unrestFloodTropical cycloneKey drivers and aggravating factorsHotspots o

101、f highest concernHotspots of very high concernHotspots of high concern(October 2022 to January 2023)Early warning hunger hotspotsSources:UN Food and Agriculture Organisation;UN World Food Programme.AFRICA OUTLOOK 2023:THE CHALLENGES AHEADRESILIENCE AMID DISRUPTION The Economist Intelligence Unit Lim

102、ited 202213adaptation,resilience building and compensationis unlikely to materialise in Cairo,or Dubai,while African states will remain at the vanguard of those countries suffering the effects of weather-related loss events.Adverse weather conditions in 2022 and the potential for further disruption

103、in 2023 will negatively affect domestic food supplies,while high prices for farm inputs(especially fuel and fertilisers)and imported food products will exacerbate the food security crisis playing out across much of East Africa,the Sahel and parts of Southern Africa.Water stress and food insecurity w

104、ill remain a key driver of localised conflict,social unrest and cross-border migrationespecially in Ethiopia,Somalia,and South Sudan where the risk of famine and hunger will loom large in 2023.Unresolved conflicts affect regional stabilityConflict on the continent will remain an issue and difficult

105、to resolve given underlying tensions and drivers,which often spill across borders.Hotspots of insecurity in 2023 will be found across the impoverished Sahel regionespecially in Mali and Burkina Faso,in fragmented and disputed Libya,throughout the Horn of Africa,in northern Mozambique and in unsettle

106、d parts of Nigeria.Of particular concern is the conflict in northern Ethiopia(Tigray region),which will continue to undermine peace and stability in the Horn of Africa in 2023.The conflict,which started in November 2020,is stuck in a tense and tragic deadlock.An ongoing build-up of Ethiopian federal

107、 government forces and Eritrean allies along the Ethiopian border with Eritrea does not bode well for a peace settlement,and the fight with the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front,which controls most of the region,looks set to drag on and could draw more players into the arena in 2023.In addition,the co

108、nflict raging in Mali and Burkina Faso involve Isis and al-Qaida-linked jihadis,national armies,UN peacekeepers,European forcesespecially the Frenchand mercenary groups,including the Russian private military group Wagner.Instability will reign and the death toll will remain high in 2023.The Economis

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