1、POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong1WRI.ORG.CNXINYUAN WEN XIAOQIAN JIANG HELEN DING LAWRENCE IU LAUREN CHAN SIMRAN SAWHNEY WEE KEAN FONG PATHWAYS TOWARDS A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS POWER SYSTEM FOR HONG KONGPowering a Carbon-Free Hong Kong2WRID

2、esign and Layout by:Harry Zhang ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication is a joint effort by HK 2050 Is Now,an initiative of the World Resources Institute(WRI),Civic Exchange,ADM Capital Foundation,HSBC,RS Group,and WYNG Foundation.We would like to express our gratitude to those who provided timely and he

3、lpful advice,support,and assistance during the preparation of this publication.Special thanks go to the following individuals and organisations for providing inputs and reviewing draft versions of this document:Charles Tsai,Power Assets CW Tse,Environment Bureau,The Government of the Hong Kong Speci

4、al Administrative Region Daphne Ngar-yin MAH,Hong Kong Baptist University Davis Bookhart,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Debra Tan,CWR Edward Chow,Hong Kong Productivity Council Fanny Law Isabel Carrera Zamanillo,Stanford School of Earth Energy and Environmental Science Jim Taylor

5、,Jeanne Ng,Thomas Lui,CLP Hong Kong Limited Kevin Hsu,Centre for Liveable Cities,Ministry of National Development,Singapore Lisa Genasci,ADM Capital Foundation Victor Kwong,Jasper Chan,Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited Wei Fang,Yu Gu,Sungrow Power Supply Co.,Ltd Xi Liang,UK-China(Guangdong)CCU

6、S Center Xiaoliang Yang,China Oil&Gas Climate Investments Yuan Xu,The Chinese University of Hong Kong John So,Fiona Lau,Bon Cheung(intern),Cindy Tanaka(intern),Justine Ip(intern),Edgar Siu(intern),Civic Exchange Beth Elliot,Hong Miao,Katie Ross,Li Fang,Min Yuan,Rajat Shrestha,Ran Wei,Su Song,Tian Yu

7、,Wenyi Xi,Zhe Liu,Bokai Qi(intern),Weizhe Ma(intern),Wenjing Ma(intern),Yanping Qiao(intern),Yingyue Chai(intern),WRIWe are also grateful to Bill Dugan,Caroline Taylor,Emilia Suarez,Renee Pineda,Romain Warnault,Rory Coen,Ruiyun Dou,and Ye Zhang for providing editing,administrative,and design support

8、.We are pleased to acknowledge our institutional strategic partners,which provide core funding to WRI:Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,and Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.Funding from the ADM Capital Foundation and the Overlook Fou

9、ndation made this analysis possible.We appreciate their support.POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong KongITABLE OF CONTENTSIII ForewordV Executive SummaryPART I.CURRENT POWER SYSTEM1 Chapter 1.Power System in TransitionPART II.NET-ZERO TECHNOLO

10、GY OPTIONS9 Chapter 2.Renewable Energy and Waste to Energy19 Chapter 3.Fossil Fuels with CCS25 Chapter 4.Green Hydrogen 35 Chapter 5.Regional Collaboration on Low-Carbon EnergyPART III.NET-ZERO PATHWAYS47 Chapter 6.Pathways to a Net-Zero Emissions Power System59 Chapter 7.Recommendations 65 Annex.Sc

11、enario Setting68 Endnotes68 ReferencesIIWRIPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong KongIIIFOREWORDUN Secretary General Antnio Guterres stated in 2019 that“cities are where the climate battle will largely be won or lost,”as cities account for aroun

12、d three-quarters of global final energy consumption.There have been encouraging signs that governments worldwide are becoming more ambitious in decarbonising their energy sectors,which would be pivotal for cities to meet their carbon targets.In November 2020,Hong Kong became the first city in China

13、to make a time-specific carbon neutrality pledge when the chief executive of Hong Kong announced that Hong Kong would strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2050,joining 796 municipal governments in 63 countries with net-zero emissions targets.The energy sector is the most important sector for H

14、ong Kong to win the race to zero emissions,as electricity generation is Hong Kongs dominant source of greenhouse gas emissions.In the future,continued economic growth and population growth,as well as widespread electrification,will greatly increase demand for electricity.For this reason,a robust zer

15、o-carbon power system needs to be established as soon as possible.According to the latest International Energy Agency(IEA)report,Net Zero by 2050:A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector,nearly 90 percent of the global power generation will come from renewable energy to achieve net-zero emissions.Wind

16、 and solar photovoltaic power generation will account for nearly 70 percent,while the rest will predominantly come from nuclear.However,geographical and resource constraints mean that the contribution of local renewable energy to Hong Kongs energy mix will be limited.Therefore,Hong Kong needs to ide

17、ntify and develop alternative zero-carbon technologiesspecifically,nuclear,hydrogen,and carbon capture and storage(CCS)on a large scale.This report proposes five energy-mix scenarios to decarbonise Hong Kong by 2050 and evaluates their climate,economic,environmental,health,and energy security impact

18、s.Hong Kongs efforts will contribute to net-zero emissions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).Collaboration will drive greater investment,innovation,and talent to the region,laying the foundation for the GBA to lead the global energy transition.Acting now is our only option.Our r

19、ecommendations provide some solutions for Hong Kong towards a next-generation power system that fosters a cleaner,greener,and safer environment.World Resources Institute and Civic Exchange are proud to join the design of the greatest change that lies ahead.We hope this report will give insights into

20、 Hong Kongs future actions and its continued leadership in the new carbon-neutral era.Li FangChief Representative,Beijing Representative Office,WRI ChinaLisa GenasciBoard Member,Civic ExchangeIVWRIPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong KongVEXECU

21、TIVE SUMMARYHIGHLIGHTS The IPCCs Sixth Assessment Working Group 1 Report,published in 2021,warns that if the world has any chance of keeping a temperature rise within 1.5C,we need to reduce our emissions immediately,rapidly,and on a large scale.Hong Kong is already experiencing some climate stress,s

22、uch as heatwaves,storm surges,and other extreme weather events.To minimise the threat of climate change,such as sea level rises which could damage the citys critical infrastructure and disrupt its economy,Hong Kong needs to decarbonise as quickly as possible.In November 2020,Hong Kong pledged to ach

23、ieve carbon neutrality before 2050,making it Chinas first city with a time-specific carbon neutrality goal.On 6th October 2021,the Hong Kong Climate Action Plan 2050 was published.It set an interim target of reducing Hong Kongs carbon emissions by 50 percent before 2035 compared to 2005 levels.The g

24、reatest potential for reducing emissions is within the power sector,which accounted for approximately 66 percent of Hong Kongs total greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions in 2019.In the newly released Climate Action Plan,Government committed to cease coal usage for daily electricity generation by 2035,as wel

25、l as increase the share of renewable energy to 7.510 percent by 2035 and to 15 percent gradually thereafter.This report is one of a number of sectoral reports under the Hong Kong 2050 Is Now initiative examining possible pathways to decarbonisation.It evaluates potential decarbonised power technolog

26、ies and develops five energy-mix scenarios involving different technological combinations.These scenarios consider the economic,social,and environmental impact of building a decarbonised power system.Our recommendations can inform government planning in its pursuit of the mid-and long-term targets l

27、aid out in the Climate Action Plan.We have found that a decarbonised power system with a high ratio of imported nuclear energy has economic advantages and can reduce power system emissions by 70 percent by 2035.In contrast,power systems with a high reliance on emerging technologies,such as CCS and h

28、ydrogen,face higher costs and deployment feasibility challenges.Ultimately,the future costs of these technologies will determine their long-term utility.Hong Kong should,in a first instance,be proactive in scaling up domestic wind and solar energy,as well as expanding waste-to-energy facilities.Give

29、n its limited land area,Hong Kong also needs to enhance regional collaboration and import more low-carbon energy,such as nuclear and green hydrogen,to build a decarbonised power system.VIWRIIntroduction In her November 2020 annual Policy Address,Hong Kongs Chief Executive,Carrie Lam,set out the gove

30、rnments strategies and proposals to achieve carbon neutrality and promote green transport and energy efficiency,and pledged that the city would achieve carbon neutrality before 2050.Currently,the power sector is the primary source(66 percent)of carbon emissions in Hong Kong.Therefore,decarbonising t

31、his sector is critical for the city to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.This report analyses Hong Kongs options in this regard.Based on an in-depth analysis of different power technologies,we developed five energy-mix scenarios and provide recommendations for policymakers and power companies.Zero

32、Carbon Technology Options for Hong KongWe examine the feasibility,opportunities,and challenges for the large-scale deployment of renewable energy,CCS,and green hydrogen.We also evaluate the possibility of developing joint-venture opportunities with renewable energy and nuclear generators in Mainland

33、 China.Our objective is to promote regional collaboration on clean energy development and a power system that is better integrated with Mainland China.Domestic renewable energy(RE):Limited by geographical conditions and resources,domestic RE can only play a limited role in Hong Kongs energy mix.Howe

34、ver,it must undoubtedly be an indispensable part of any future decarbonised power system in Hong Kong.Our analysis shows that domestic RE could supply up to 4 percent of Hong Kongs electricity demand by 2030 and 10 percent by 2050.Among all RE options to help achieve decarbonisation,offshore wind fa

35、rms appear to have the greatest potential.In the future,if CCS technology becomes commercially available,it could help abate emissions from fossil-fuel power plants while maintaining their dispatchable power output,and assure reliability in a flexible manner.This is of great value to Hong Kong becau

36、se,with limited renewable energy resources,fossil fuel-based power generation is likely to perform some role.Hydrogen has great potential as an alternative energy carrier in supporting Hong Kongs carbon-neutrality goal.The utilisation of low-or zero-carbon hydrogen can reduce our carbon footprint,as

37、 well as strengthen Hong Kongs energy security,thus contributing to greater climate resilience.The power sector could greatly benefit from hydrogens contribution to grid balancing and the management of peak load issues,therefore enhancing supply reliability,deployment,and transport.The delivered cos

38、t of hydrogen could significantly affect the power-generation cost of electricity in Hong Kong.Importing clean energy from Mainland China.Hong Kong should work with Guangdong Province and aspire for the Greater Bay Area to lead efforts in China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.Nuclear energy is

39、technically feasible,commercially viable,and an available decarbonised option.There is potential for Hong Kong to import more nuclear energy from Guangdong as part of its clean energy transition.Offshore wind is also a promising,increasingly economic and available option.The main power-sector challe

40、nges for government include negotiating with cities in Mainland China for clean energy resources and,consequently,ensuring adequate infrastructure for transport and distribution.Government and the citys two local power companies need to begin negotiations with Mainland China to help secure stable,ad

41、equate,and decarbonised energy.Hydrogen:Hydrogen has great potential as an alternative energy source in supporting Hong Kongs carbon-neutrality goal.The utilisation of low-or zero-carbon hydrogen can reduce the citys carbon footprint,as well as strengthen its energy security,thus contributing to gre

42、ater climate resilience.The power sector could benefit greatly from hydrogens contribution to grid balancing and the management of peak load issues,thereby enhancing the reliability of the power-sector supply.However,as Hong Kong has limited green hydrogen facilities,it will likely have to import gr

43、een hydrogen from Australia,the Middle East,or Mainland China.Currently,using green hydrogen to power the base load faces challenges due to limited supplies and high fuel costs.The success of utilising hydrogen in Hong Kongs power sector depends on global efforts in green hydrogen development,POWERI

44、NG A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong KongVIIFigure ES-1|Evolution of Power Generation Mix Assumed across Scenariosdeployment,and transport.The delivered cost of hydrogen could significantly affect the power-generation cost of electricity in Hong Kong

45、.CCS.In 2020,natural gas contributed 48 percent of Hong Kongs electricity generation,while coal accounted for 23 percent.Despite Hong Kongs plans to phase out all coal in the future,electricity generation from natural gas would still produce worrying amounts of emissions.If CCS technology becomes co

46、mmercially available,it could abate the emissions of fossil-fuel power plants while maintaining their dispatchable power output to underpin local reliability in a flexible manner.This is of great value to Hong Kong because,with limited renewable energy resources,fossil fuel-based power generation is

47、 likely to perform some kind of a role.Pathways towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power SystemBased on an analysis of the potential,feasibility,and readiness of the above technologies,as well as through consultations with stakeholders,we developed five scenarios to demonstrate the effects of different en

48、ergy mixes.Figure ES-1 illustrates the energy mix of each scenario.We examined the performance of the five scenarios in terms of cost,air pollution,and health risks.Table ES-1 shows that the five scenarios perform differently against these criteria,and no single scenario outperforms the others in al

49、l aspects.Government is advised to consider these five options in its efforts to achieve its 2050 carbon-neutrality goal.Source:Assumption of project team.Power generation(GWh)020,00060,00010,00050,00040,00030,000203520452050203020402025203520452050203020402025203520452050203020402025203520452050203

50、020402025203520452050203020402025Solar PVWaste to energyImported REOffshore windImported nuclearHydrogenCoalOnshore windNatural gas without CCSNatural gas with CCSNatural gasRE+Fossil-freeDiversityNuclearVIIIWRINote:$represents the lowest cost compared with the other scenarios;$represents the highes

51、t cost compared with the other scenarios.Source:Scenarios for the energy mix in 2050 are the authors assumption;evaluation criteria are calculation results of the project team.Source:Calculation of the project team.NATURAL GAS RE+NUCLEAR DIVERSITY FOSSIL-FREE ScenariosEnergy Mix in 2050 Natural gas

52、with CCS65%35%30%35%-Local RE10%10%10%10%10%Imported RE-30%10%15%-Nuclear 25%25%50%25%60%Hydrogen-15%30%Evaluation CriteriaFeasibility-technological maturity No for CCSNo for CCSNo for CCSNo for CCS and hydrogen No for hydrogenEconomic competitiveness(avg.LCOE in 2050)$Carbon and air pollutant emiss

53、ions HighMediumLowMediumLowAssociated health concerns HighMediumLowMediumLowDiversity Low MediumMediumHigh Low Table ES-1|Comparison of Different ScenariosFigure ES-2|Annual CO2 Emissions under Different Scenarios Nuclear scenarioDiversity scenarioFossil-free scenarioRE+scenarioNatural gas scenarioA

54、nnual CO2 emissions(Millions of tonnes)20252020205020302035204020450102520155POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong KongIXIn terms of climate mitigation,the Nuclear scenario has the lowest cumulative carbon emissions because it involves a one-tim

55、e switch to a large-scale decarbonised energy source.The Fossil-Free scenario presents a pathway with the second-least cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and will lead to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.The RE+,Nuclear,and Diversity scenarios will all bring carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 to les

56、s than 5 percent,compared with todays levels.From a technical readiness perspective,all the scenarios rely to a certain degree on early-stage technologiesnatural gas-fired power plants equipped with CCS and green hydrogenthat are not yet commercially viable.The Natural Gas and Diversity scenarios re

57、ly on these technologies for 5065 percent of the total generation mix.The RE+,Nuclear,and Fossil-Free scenarios rely less on these technologies,taking up 3035 percent of the total generation mix.The scenarios with a higher reliance on early-stage technologies bear greater uncertainties during energy

58、 transitions.In this respect,the Nuclear and Fossil-Free scenarios perform best as they leverage these technologies least.Global efforts in the development and deployment of CCS and green hydrogen will be crucial for CCS-equipped power plants to be commercially viable and for green hydrogen producti

59、on to the economy scale.In terms of cost-effectiveness,increasing imports of nuclear energy will help Hong Kong achieve its carbon neutrality goal,while avoiding the higher costs associated with technologies in early-stage development.Estimates on the future costs of various decarbonised power gener

60、ation technologies mainly centre on the future price of green hydrogen and CCS technologies.The economic performance of the Nuclear and Fossil-Free scenarios outperforms the rest.RecommendationsIt is critical for Hong Kong to take ambitious and decisive action now to transform to a net-zero carbon p

61、ower system.As government considers how to decarbonise the citys power system,potentially adopting one of the five scenarios or different combinations of them,it also needs to understand the importance,regardless of what it chooses,of keeping up with technological and market developments.Delay in ac

62、tion will lead to a carbon lock-in,which will eventually lead to larger cumulative emissions.It will also challenge Hong Kongs position as an important international financial centre.XWRIThese are what we call no-regret actions.Regardless of which pathway government chooses,these recommendations sho

63、uld be for immediate implementation.Any delay will likely jeopardise Hong Kongs carbon-neutrality vision.Scale up domestic wind and solar energy.Many studies indicate that Hong Kongs renewable energy potential could constitute up to 10 percent of total energy consumption,which is much higher than th

64、e current government target of 34 percent.Regardless of which pathway is chosen,government should utilise domestic renewable energy resources as much as possible.To do so,government should authorise a new study to examine the availability of Hong Kongs renewable-energy resources.In addition to the c

65、urrent Feed-in Tariff scheme,government should introduce other financial incentives,such as fiscal and taxation mechanisms,to encourage both utility and non-utility companies to develop renewable-energy technologies.Further scale up waste-to-energy facilities.Waste-to-energy(WtE)technology is an inv

66、aluable domestic renewable resource that addresses both waste management and GHG emissions challenges.Regardless of which pathway is chosen,alongside policies that reduce waste,Hong Kong should optimise WtE utilisation.Government may include a WtE target in the Scheme of Control Agreements(SCAs)and

67、ask both power companies to develop WtE facilities at their plant sites.For instance,Castle Peak and Lamma Island are potential sites for up to three incinerators.However,government needs to address residents environmental concerns,such as air pollution and odours.These could easily be addressed,how

68、ever,with greater transparency and,for example,real-time air quality monitoring during construction.Explore ways to enhance regional collaboration towards increasing imports of renewable and nuclear energy from Mainland China.Building new nuclear power plants and offshore wind projects are at the to

69、p of Guangdongs energy-development agenda,and that could provide opportunities for Hong Kong to increase its proportion of imported clean energy through collaborative models,such as negotiating joint ventures with individual generators.Government may consider exploring the feasibility of importing r

70、enewable and nuclear energy from Guangdong.Government should also explore the viability of additional interconnections between Hong Kong and the China Southern Grid to ensure that reliability standards can be maintained.POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power Sys

71、tem for Hong KongXIExplore the potential of large-scale green hydrogen utilisation.Hydrogen-based technologies are becoming an important solution for a net-zero carbon society and have the potential to satisfy Hong Kongs peak load,grid balancing,and energy-security issues.Government may consider est

72、ablishing a cross-agency task force to develop a green hydrogen strategy for Hong Kong.It would also be worthwhile to explore the potential of pink hydrogen produced by nuclear power,or blue hydrogen produced from fossil fuels plus CCS.Hong Kong power plants built after 2020 should also be hydrogen-

73、ready.Government should consider providing subsidies for green hydrogen research and development,as well as fostering carbon pricing to allow green hydrogen to become a cost-competitive alternative.Enhance grid balancing and energy storage to accommodate a broader energy mix.Grid balancing becomes m

74、ore challenging as a higher percentage of the energy supply moves from coal and gas to multiple sources.Hong Kong needs to look at all options,such as improving interconnections within the city,constructing an interconnection with the China Southern Grid that maintains Hong Kongs current reliability

75、,and increasing storage capacity.Government may consider conducting a study to identify measures to enhance grid balancing.It could seek investment in new sources of system reliability and flexibility in response to the shift from a dispatchable generation-dominated power system to one relying more

76、on renewable power.Explore the possibility of CCS technology deployment.There is growing recognition of the part CSS can play in the decarbonisation process.It is important to ensure that all fossil fuel-based power plants built after 2020 are CCS-ready.Retrofitting existing facilities with CCS tech

77、nologies is costly and sometimes infeasible.While the future development of CCS is still uncertain,government and the utility companies should start actively engaging in regional CCS development projects,including in Guangdong.This will help ensure better planning for future CCS deployment.Continue

78、to increase the electrification of Hong Kong society.Although this report focuses on reducing emissions from the power sector,no single industrys efforts can ensure that Hong Kong achieves carbon neutrality before 2050.Detailed recommendations for the transport and building sectors can be found in o

79、ther reports in the Hong Kong 2050 Is Now series.XIIWRIPART I CURRENT POWER SYSTEMPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong1POWER SYSTEM IN TRANSITIONIn November 2020,Hong Kongs chief executive pledged that the city would achieve carbon neutral

80、ity before 2050,making it the first city in China to set a time-specific carbon-neutrality goal.Published in June 2020,the first Hong Kong 2050 Is Now1 report,Towards a Better Hong Kong:Pathways to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions By 2050 2,demonstrates that Hong Kong could achieve net-zero GHG emissions b

81、y 2050 through a broad range of initiatives,including decarbonising its power system,building energy-efficiency enhancements,and improving transport systems.CHAPTER 12WRIIn October 2021,government published the Hong Kong Climate Action Plan 2050,which set an interim target of reducing Hong Kongs car

82、bon emissions by 50 percent before 2035 as compared to 2005 levels.The plan committed to cease coal usage for daily electricity generation by 2035,as well as increase the share of renewable energy to 7.510 percent by 2030 and to 15 percent gradually thereafter(Hong Kong Government 2021).These measur

83、es represent a significant increase of ambition from the previous targets outlined in the 2017 Climate Action Plan 2030+,which aimed for 34 percent renewable energy by 2030.However,the updated plan does not contain a concrete direction towards the achievement of the new targets.This report offers ro

84、ad maps that aim to guide Hong Kong towards a decarbonised power system and will hopefully inform governments plans.The Need for a Clean Power SystemPower generation and other energy industries are the single largest source of GHG emissions in Hong Kong.According to Hong Kongs 2019 GHG inventory,app

85、roximately 66 percent,or 26.3 MtCO2e of its emissions came from electricity generation and town gas3 production that year(EPD 2021).Our analysis shows that decarbonising the power sector is key to achieving net-zero carbon emissions and shows the potential for emissions reductions of 27 MtCO2 by 205

86、0.That represents 60 percent of Hong Kongs total emissions reduction potential(Jiang et al.2020).This report is divided into three parts:Chapter 1 elaborates on the current power system in Hong Kong and the need to decarbonise this system.Based on an analysis of various zero-emissions power technolo

87、giesincluding developing domestic renewable energy resources,equipping coal and gas power generation with CCS technologies,replacing coal or gas with green hydrogen,and importing clean energy from Mainland China.Chapters 2 to 5 offer an evaluation and recommendations for Hong Kong when considering d

88、ifferent net-zero carbon-technology options,including renewable energy,fossil fuels with CCS,and green hydrogen,as well as regional collaboration on low-carbon energy development.Chapter 6 defines concrete pathways and implementation road maps for decarbonising the power system.Finally,Chapter 7 del

89、ves into recommendations for action over the next 5 to 10 years.Increasing Power DemandHong Kongs electricity consumption was 44.1TWh in 2020(CSD 2021),a slight decrease from 2019 levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic.In the past 20 years,growth in electricity demand has slowed.Per capita electricity

90、consumption peaked in 2014,the same year that total emissions peaked.Figure 1|Hong Kongs Electricity Consumption and GHG Emissions(I)Source:CSD 2021;EPD 2021.Total electricity demand and per capita electricity consumptionTotal electricity demand(TWh)20042002200020202008200620102014201220182016020405

91、01030Per capita electricity demand(KWh)5,0005,6006,0006,2005,4005,2005,800Per capita electricity consumptionTotal electricity demandPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong3Electricity is playing an increasingly important role in Hong Kongs en

92、ergy system.Electricity accounted for 55 percent of the final energy demand in 2018,with most coming from commercial buildings,residential buildings,industries,and transport(EMSD 2020).The building sector dominates Hong Kongs electricity consumption,accounting for more than 93 percent of total elect

93、ricity use(EMSD 2020),as shown in Figure 2.Electrification will continue in the future and is vital for local sustainable development.Driven by economic and population expansion,both commercial and residential buildings have experienced moderate growth over the past decade.The number of residential

94、units increased by 14 percent between 2008 and 2018,while the floor area of commercial and industrial buildings rose by 4 percent(CSD 2019).This trend increased electricity demand in the building sector,especially from commercial buildings.Though the transport sector accounted for a relatively small

95、 percentage of total electricity consumption in Hong Kong during this time,it actually grew Figure 1|Hong Kongs Electricity Consumption and GHG Emissions(II)Figure 2|Electricity Consumption by Sector in 2018Source:CSD 2021;EPD 2021.Source:EMSD 2020.Industrial 5%Transport 2%Commercial buildings67%Res

96、idential buildings26%Million tonnes of CO2e2004200220002020200820062010201420122018201601,0002,0003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005001,5002,500Total GHG emissions4WRIfaster than the others,at 27 percent.This is mainly due to increased demand from the MTR and Tramlarge transport systems powered by electrici

97、ty(EMSD 2020).During the same period,electricity consumption in Hong Kongs industrial sector declined 34.5 percent due to a decrease in industries located in the city(Figure 3).Based on the results from the Hong Kong Energy Policy Simulator(Hong Kong EPS)4,which were also presented in Towards a Bett

98、er Hong Kong:Pathways to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050,Hong Kongs future power demand will gradually increase at an average annual growth rate of 0.4 percent.Total power demand is expected to reach around 46.7 TWh in 2043.After that,it will start to decline to around 45.6 TWh in 2050(Jiang et al

99、.2020).The building sector is forecast to dominate demand for electricity in Hong Kong over the next three decades.Total demand will remain at the current level as a result of increased building areas and electrification,but with improved energy efficiency,according to the Hong Kong EPS.In March 202

100、1,government released the Hong Kong Roadmap on Popularisation of Electric Vehicles,which stipulates that Hong Kong intends to prohibit new registrations of private fossil fuel-powered cars,including hybrids,by 2035.This should accelerate a move towards electrification in Hong Kong and increase deman

101、d for electricity in the transport sector.It is expected that transport will account for 10.9 percent of total electricity demand in 2050,compared with only 1 percent in 2020(Figure 4).Terajoules080,000100,00040,00020,00060,000120,000140,000160,000180,0002008 totalResidential buildingsCommercial bui

102、ldingsIndustrial useTransport2008 totalFigure 3|Hong Kongs Electricity Consumption Change by Sector,20082018Figure 4|Hong Kongs Future Electricity Demand by Sector,2021-2050Source:EMSD 2020.Source:Hong Kong Energy Policy Simulator(https:/hongkong.energypolicy.solutions/).147,3454,86510,839-4,2446891

103、59,494IndustryTransportBuildingTWh/year20272029202520232021204720352037203320312043204520412039204904050203010POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong5 Transitioning from Coal to Clean EnergyIn 2020,local power plants,dominated by fossil fuel-

104、fired power plants,provided 73.4 percent of Hong Kongs total electricity demand,while imported nuclear energy from the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station in Guangdong Province contributed the remainder.(CSD 2020a).Historically,coal has dominated local power generation,but it is gradually being replaced

105、by gas-fired power generation.In 1997,government decided to stop building new coal-fired power plants.In 2017,it published Hong Kongs Climate Action Plan 2030+,which laid out a plan to continue phasing out coal for electricity generation to 25 percent of the energy mix,to increase the share of natur

106、al gas to 50 percent by 2020,and to increase non-fossil fuel sources.(Hong Kong Steering Committee on Climate Change 2017).In 2020,natural gas(48 percent)surpassed coal as the primary source of electricity generation,followed by imported nuclear energy(28 percent)and coal(23 percent)as shown in Figu

107、re 5.Hong Kong also seeks to develop and introduce clean energy solutions,such as solar and wind power generation,as well as hydrogen,to reduce carbon emissions and achieve its carbon neutrality target.However,considering resource Figure 5|Electricity Generation Mix in Hong Kong,2015 and 2020and geo

108、graphical constraints,Hong Kong needs to develop refined policies for both renewable energy substitution and decarbonisation of its fossil-fuel dominated power system.Institutional and Regulatory Framework for the TransitionHong Kongs electricity is supplied by two investor-owned and vertically inte

109、grated utility companies,CLP Power Hong Kong(CLP)and the Hong Kong Electric Company Limited(HKE).These two companies own and operate Hong Kongs local power-generation plants and transmission and distribution network,whilst serving different areas of the city.CLP supplies electricity to Kowloon and t

110、he New Territories,including Lantau,Cheung Chau,and most of the outlying islands.CLP owned a total installed capacity of 9,573 MW in 2020(CLP 2021b)and has 25 percent equity in the Daya Bay nuclear power plant(CLP n.d.b).HKE supplies electricity to Hong Kong Island,Ap Lei Chau,and Lamma Island,and o

111、wned a total installed capacity of 3,617 MW in 2020(HK Electric Investment 2021).The two companies are the implementing parties for the power sectors decarbonisation goal.Government is responsible for regulating the electricity market.Every 15 years,it enters SCAs Source:Hong Kong Steering Committee

112、 on Climate Change 2017;CLP 2021a;2021b;HKE 2021.Natural gas 27%Coal 48%Nuclear 26%2015Natural gas 48%Nuclear 28%Coal 23%2020Other 1%6WRIwith each utility company,imposing specific requirements on the two monopolies regarding shareholder dividend limits,electricity prices,and corporate responsibilit

113、ies and obligations,as well as other finance-related matters.Any additional generation,transmission,and distribution facilities must be approved by government.As SCAs regulate the rights and obligations of the companies,they are considered the most important documents in the local electricity market

114、.They are a vital tool in ensuring energy security and minimising the environmental impact of electricity generation,while promoting energy efficiency and conservation(ENB 2021a).The first SCA was signed in 1964.The current SCAs were signed in 2017 and became effective in 2018 for CLP and 2019 for H

115、KE.The two agreements will expire in 2033.They reflect Hong Kongs commitment to combatting climate change,promoting efficiency and conservation,developing renewable energy sources,and meeting public expectations for the future development of the electricity market.Ever since the first SCA,the agreem

116、ents have focused on governments role in monitoring electricity-related financial affairs,such as the rate of return,which is currently at 8 percent for shareholders under the current SCA.Increasingly,government has focused on providing financial incentive schemes for the promotion of sustainability

117、,such as an additional rate of return for the improvement of energy-efficient performance through energy audits and supporting the Feed-in Tariff Scheme.SCAs are important regulatory tools for the electricity market.Our recommendations in this report highlight their potential.POWERING A CARBON-FREE

118、HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong78WRIPART II NET-ZERO TECHNOLOGY OPTIONSPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong9RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WASTE TO ENERGY Less than 1 percent of Hong Kongs electricity consu

119、mption is supplied by renewable energy sources(Figure 6).Hong Kongs Climate Action Plan 2030+indicates a renewable energy target of 34 percent by 2030,but other research suggests the city should aim much higher in this field.(Hong Kong Steering Committee on Climate Change 2017).This Chapter examines

120、 the potential of WtE,solar power,and wind power in Hong Kong.CHAPTER 210WRIWaste to EnergyCurrent CapacityAs a city with one of the worlds highest levels of waste per capita per day(1.47 kg),Hong Kong sent 4.04 million tonnes of municipal solid waste(MSW)to landfills in 2019(ENB 2021b).GHG emission

121、s from the waste sector doubled from about 1,550 kilotonnes CO2e in 1990 to 2,940 kilotonnes CO2e in 2019(EPD 2021).It is the only sector in Hong Kong that has increased its emissions since 2014.WtE contributed 84%of electricity generation from local renewable energy(Figure 6).WtE technology offers

122、a solution to three of the citys most pressing problems:an overburdened waste management system,the lack of low-carbon energy,and limited land available for landfill and waste disposal.Currently,WtE produces 560.83 GWh of energy and makes up 86 percent of all the renewable energy in Hong Kong(EMSD 2

123、020).Major WtE technologies include landfill gas utilisation,anaerobic digestion,and thermal treatment with energy recovery.Figure 7|Location of Waste Management Facilities Source:ENB,2013.Figure 6|Composition of Renewable Energy in Hong Kong(GWh)Source:EMSD 2020.WtE,568.889Biodiesel,88.611Solar,13.

124、055Wind and hydropower,4.167POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong11Potential CapacityHong Kongs waste management structure relies heavily on landfills and has virtually no incineration capacity,as government shut down all municipal waste in

125、cinerators during the 1990s.In Hong Kongs Climate Action Plan 2030+,government estimates no more than 1.5 percent of Hong Kongs electricity will come from WtE through the Organic Resources Recovery Centre(ORRC)Phase 3 and Integrated Waste Management Facilities(IWMFs)that recover heat energy from the

126、 MSW incineration process.In 2017,the Environmental Protection Department(EPD)commissioned an environmental impact assessment of the ORRC Phase 3,or O-Park3,with a proposed capacity of 300 tonnes per day(EPD 2017).A site in Shek Kong,Yuen Long,was identified for this facility,yet no further action h

127、as been taken.In addition to the commissioned IWMF Phase 1 site in Shek Kwu Chau,which is predicted to produce approximately 480 million kWh of surplus energy for the power grid annually,the Tsang Tsui Ash Lagoon was also identified as a suitable site for IWMF Phase 2(EPD 2008).Situated adjacent to

128、the WENT Landfill and CLPs Black Point Power Station,this new location offers multiple advantages,including the ability to share existing infrastructure,such as berthing facilities and the easy disposal of ash residue generated by IWMF into the landfill.Its proximity to the power plant also means ea

129、sy connection to the power grid.Challenges and Opportunities Liu et al.(2017)conducted an analysis of the environmental impact of five waste-management technologies.They found that the optimum strategy for GHG reduction was the anaerobic digestion(AD)of source-separated organic waste and the inciner

130、ation of portions of waste high in plastics.Residue landfilling was the least optimal option.Iqbal et al.(2019)supports this conclusion.In their analysis of various integrated solid waste management scenarios based on net GHG emissions and energy use,they found that integrating incineration with com

131、bined AD and composting has the best potential for energy recovery and can save up to 87 percent of GHG emissions.Without energy recovery,though,the incineration method is unfavourable.The application of carbon sequestration is also a decisive factor that affects the overall impact of each scenario.

132、When estimating the potential GHG emissions in Hong Kongs waste development plan,Dong et al.(2017)found that after implementing IWMF,GHG emissions from landfills would decrease by 52 percent by 2030,compared to 2018 levels.However,total GHG emissions from the entire waste sector were predicted to in

133、crease by 332,206 tonnes of CO2e in 2020,compared to 2010 levels.The additional emissions come from the combustion of petroleum products when plastics are thrown away.This can be negated by robust recycling and waste-sorting efforts to remove plastics from the incineration stream or by reducing over

134、all solid waste disposal by 40 percent.Dong et al.(2017)demonstrate that incineration is not a silver bullet for the citys waste or clean energy issues;instead,there must be active waste-reduction efforts and improvements in recycling for IWMF to be considered a climate-friendly solution.Despite the

135、 benefits of integrated waste management and the potential for incineration,the people of Hong Kong are resistant to the new Shek Kwu Chau incinerator.In 1989,government issued Pollution in Hong KongA Time to Act,a white paper which determined that incinerators were a major source of pollution in ur

136、ban areas,accounting for approximately 18 percent of all respirable particulates emitted into the atmosphere,as well as a source of trace quantities of highly toxic substances.This led government to shut down municipal waste incinerators in the 1990s.Since then,incinerator technologies have improved

137、.By adopting advanced process-control measures to optimise the combustion process and meeting stringent international emission standards,incineration has become more accepted and is widely used around the world today.Government reversed its decision against incinerators in their 2005 Policy Framewor

138、k for the Management of Municipal Solid Waste 12WRIin Hong Kong,which included building IWMFs with incineration as the core technology for final waste treatment.However,the 1989 white paper brought about negative public attitudes towards incineration that continue to be the majority view today.Some

139、also consider incineration as a bandaid solution to larger waste issues and an ineffective use of public funds.These concerns are certainly warranted.Burning waste could cause adverse health conditions,and,furthermore,so long as volumes continue to rise,it is not sustainable over the long term.Gover

140、nment should educate the public about incineration to build support but not without communicating its disadvantages.If incineration is still judged a viable option upon evaluation,then government should seek technology and management methods to mitigate as much of the negative impact as possible.Thi

141、s may include using advanced incineration technologies that reduce pollutant emissions from incineration,comply with stringent emission standards,and do not cause adverse health impacts.Solar EnergyCurrent CapacityOver the past 10 years,solar power systems have experienced a 35 percent build-out rat

142、e due to heavy investments and policy support globally(Hydrogen Council 2021).In 2015,Hong Kongs photovoltaic(PV)capacity was less than 5 MW,involving an accumulation of distributed small-scale projects.Currently,Hong Kong has several planned and constructed large-scale PV systems.Examples include H

143、KUST,which intends to install 8,000 monocrystalline solar panels generating 3 million KWh annually;Dairy Farm International,which is building a 1-million-KWh solar panel system at its Wellcome Fresh Food Centre in Tseung Kwan O;Hong Kong Disneyland,which is aiming to install more than 4,500 solar pa

144、nels to produce 1.86 MWh annually;the Siu Ho Wan Sewage Treatment Works,with a capacity of 1 MW,producing 1 million KWh of electricity annually(built in 2016);and a 1 MW solar panel system at the Lamma Power Station(constructed in 2013 by HK Electric).There are other small-scale systems in governmen

145、t buildings,school campuses,and private buildings.In 2017,government began a Feed-in Tariff(FiT)Scheme to encourage residents to install private renewable-energy(RE)generators on their properties.This scheme allows participants to sell their electricity to power companies at HKD3-5/kWh,around five t

146、imes the regular rate(HKE n.d.),but one that is subject to an annual review.However,the rate is fixed from the date the participants enter the FiT scheme either until the end of the project life of the owners RE system or the end of 2033whichever is earlier.After 2033,all the electricity generated w

147、ill belong to the RE system owner.This reduces the payback period and offers an exciting incentive for people to install RE systems.As of 2020,there were 13,072 applicants to the program and 176,200 KW purchased by government and utility companies from individual solar PV array owners.The electricit

148、y generated by FiT accounted for less than 0.01 percent of the total electricity consumption in 2020.Potential CapacityGovernment predicts that only 1-1.5 percent of Hong Kongs electricity needs in 2030 can be powered by solar energy.Taking the total electricity consumption in 201944.8 TWhas a frame

149、work for comparison,this is the equivalent of 0.67 TWh.Yet,other studies offer much greater estimates.According to an IEA report,rooftop solar PV can make a significant contribution to meeting electricity demand in cities;the technical potential of rooftop solar PV could provide up to 32 percent of

150、urban electricity demand by 2050.With further policy support and investments into the development of solar energy,as well as plunging costs and rising panel efficiencies,solar energy can become even more cost effective than other forms of generation by the end of the decade.Challenges and Opportunit

151、iesSolar has the potential to make significant contributions to the local renewable energy mix;however,there are obstacles to finding its maximum potential as calculated in the studies cited in Table 1.About a decade ago,the most significant barriers for solar energy diffusion in Hong Kong were the

152、high initial and repair costs,the long payback period,inadequate installation POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong13space,inadequate service infrastructure,the lack of stakeholder or community participation in energy choices,and legal and

153、regulation constraints.Governments introduction of the FiT Scheme in 2017 provided a much-needed push for solar energy deployment.Some projects reported an average payback period of six years if the current rates remained constant,which spurred numerous small-scale private investments in solar equip

154、ment(Chan 2019).Government says it will provide incentives until 2033;however,what happens beyond this year is unclear.While the FiT Scheme has provided some incentives and confronted the issue of long return on investment,policy support does not guarantee the ubiquitous deployment of solar energy i

155、n Hong Kong.Citywide land constraints stunt capacity factors and the average size of installations.Furthermore,while the estimated total rooftop area of all buildings in Hong Kong is around 42.6 square kilometres,one third of this is deemed unsuitable for PV systemsfor instance,the perimeter zone of

156、 roofs due to lower solar irradiance,and pitched roofs with slopes greater than 40 degrees.Excluding these areas brings the total viable rooftop area for PV systems down to 25.7 square kilometres.Moreover,regulatory constraints,such as the cumbersome installation process of PV systems,create barrier

157、s to installing solar energy systems throughout Hong Kong.Customers must go through the regulatory hoops and involve multiple parties.They need,for instance,to obtain permission from the Buildings Department for construction;appoint a prescribed registered contractor(PRC)to submit a form outlining t

158、he intended works;appoint a registered electrical company to commence work;and submit a generating facility registration to the EMSD.Lastly,the PRC must submit a form after the completion of works to the EMSD.Additionally,installing a solar energy system on a high-rise residential building requires

159、approval of all its owners,which is a difficult task because few owners would want to pay for the extra costs involved.The recent introduction of one of the worlds largest floating solar panel farms in Singapore is a huge step in the promotion of solar energy.With Singapore and Hong Kong both expose

160、d to similar extreme weather events,such as typhoons and heavy monsoon rain,the success of Singapores floating solar panel farm provides Hong Kong STUDYESTIMATED ANNUAL OUTPUT(TWh)IN 2030,AS A%OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN 2019LOCATION OF INSTALLATIONTECHNOLOGYTYPE OF SOLAR RADIATIONEMSD(2002)5.94(13.3%)

161、Building rooftopsBuilding integrated PV(BIPV)sDirect normal irradiancePeng&Lu(2012)5.98(13.4%)Building rooftopsMonocrystalline silicon modulesDiffuse horizontal irradianceWong(2015)2.43(5.4%)38(84.8%)Building rooftops,open spaces-Direct normal irradianceWong et al.(2016)2.66(5.94%)Building rooftopsM

162、ono-and poly-crystalline silicon modulesDiffuse horizontal irradianceWWF(2017)3.95(8.8%)Reservoirs-Direct normal irradianceTable 1|Summary of Predictions on Solar Utilisation Output in 2030 as a Percentage of Demand in 2019Source:EMSD 2002;Peng&Lu 2012;Wong 2015;Wong et al.2016;WWF 2017.14WRIwith so

163、me certainty that similar technology can be deployed in the city to help deal with such natural disasters.Moreover,floating solar panels could address capacity factor issues in Hong Kong,raising the potential of solar energy.Hong Kong can also follow in the footsteps of the Solar Roadmap for Singapo

164、re,prepared by a consortium led by the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore of the Natural University of Singapore for the Singapore government.It states that the accelerated scenario could contribute about 22 percent(2030)and 43 percent(2050)to electrical power demand around noon every day.

165、In the meantime,government could implement two prospective solar communities in Hong KongFairview Park and Hong Lok Yuenwhich have the capacity to produce substantial amounts of solar electricity.Government also needs to develop proper manufacturing and disposal protocols to limit the ecological and

166、 carbon footprint of solar panels.Wind EnergyCurrent CapacityHong Kong has the wind energy potential to supplement its renewable-energy base.There are a few locations where the conditions are right,namely where wind power density is above 200 W/m2 and the maximum water depth is 30 metres.Potential l

167、ocations for wind farms are summarised in Figure 8.So far,Hong Kong has only a small number of wind projects,all onshore,with a total capacity of less than 1 MW.The majority of wind power comes from a single 0.8 MW Lamma Wind turbine operated by the Hong Kong Electric Company Limited.There are also

168、a number of small-scale projects with individual turbines operating on government buildings and nongovernment structures.These installations have a limited capacity of 1-1.5 KW.Large-scale wind power systems require vast areas of land and must be located in sparsely populated areas,if not offshore.W

169、hile there are currently no offshore or large-scale wind power stations in Hong Kong,several studies have assessed the suitability of wind farm development in the citys surrounding waters.In 2006,HKE conducted a feasibility study of a 100 MW offshore wind farm with 40 sets of 2.5 MW class wind turbi

170、ne units(HKE 2006).Also in 2006,CLP commissioned a feasibility study for an offshore wind farm with 50 turbines in the southeastern waters of Hong Kong that has a maximum output of 150 MW(HK Figure 8|Potential Sites for Offshore Wind DevelopmentSource:Wong Kam Sing,2020Potential AreasSHENZHENNEW TER

171、RITORIESKOWLOONHONG KONG ISLANDLANTAU ISLANDHong KongShenzhenPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong15Offshore Wind Limited 2006).Furthermore,CLP identified several areas where offshore wind energy stations could be developed,as highlighted i

172、n green in Figure 8.As technology and equipment associated with wind energy generation develops and becomes more cost-effective,CLP is planning to build a 250 MW wind farm.CLP considers offshore wind energy systems a vital part of Hong Kongs future energy mix and is hoping that innovations in this a

173、rea can help government meet its 2050 carbon-neutrality target.HKE is also seeking to construct an offshore wind farm southwest of Lamma Island in the short term.Potential CapacityGovernment says it is not completely ruling out the aforementioned projects in the medium term and estimates that total

174、power generation from wind will amount to 660 GWh.Other studies offer a higher potential capacity by assessing the feasibility of wind energy development in other locations.Challenges and Opportunities Wind energy is well recognised as a clean alternative to conventional fossil fuel-fired power.Thou

175、gh wind energy does not release air pollutants and GHGs during its operations,it can potentially bring an adverse environmental impact,especially on local ecosystems by potentially reducing,fragmenting,or degrading habitats for wildlife,fish,and plants.The construction of offshore wind farms is very

176、 likely to affect marine mammals.Activities of greatest concern are pile driving and increased vessel traffic.Moreover,as wind turbines operate,birds migrating through the area may collide with moving blades,causing higher mortality rates.In addition,the transmission of produced electricity via cabl

177、es emits an electromagnetic field,which could affect the movement and navigation of species sensitive to them(Bailey et al.2014).Both HKE and CLP have environmental permits for wind farm developments and they consider mitigation measures as part of the permit application process.However,due to the p

178、otential impact of wind power on wildlife,the power companies must continue to pay attention to and minimise their environmental impact.A significant limitation is the various human activities in Hong Kong waters that interfere with the development of offshore wind farms.Using all 1,659 km2 of Hong

179、Kongs waters,Li(2000)estimates that offshore wind has the STUDYESTIMATED ANNUAL OUTPUT(GWh),AS A%OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN 2019LOCATIONCAPACITY OF HYPOTHETICAL WIND FARM(MW)ANNUAL WIND SPEED(m/s)AVERAGE WIND POWER DENSITY(W/m2)EMSD(2002)2,630(5.9%)Onshore rural wind farms1,500-200Lu et al.(2002)0.032

180、(1%)Offshore-Waglan IslandNA(single turbine)6.92-Gao et al.(2014)11,280(25.2%)4 offshore sites 102.75-Gao et al.(2019)14,449(32.2%)Southwest Lamma1007.03200Table 2|Summary of Predictions on Wind Utilisation Source:EMSD 2002;Lu et al.2002;Gao et al.2014;Gao et al.2019.16WRIpotential to provide 4072 p

181、ercent of the citys electricity consumption.However,the total sea area available for development is reduced after factoring in the shared use of these waters with shipping,gas,electric submarine cables,and mud disposal.Marine conservation and recreational areas that are protected from any form of de

182、velopment also need to be counted out.The demand and supply mismatches also render wind energy a less viable alternative.Electricity demand is high during the hot summer months(MaySeptember)and low during the mild winter months(NovemberApril).Yet,the seasonal variation from wind power production is

183、the reverse,since more electricity is produced in winter than summer.This may not be a technical issue in terms of grid operations due to the diverse makeup of the fuel source,but it remains a factor for further consideration.Although Hong Kongs average wind speed is relatively moderate,the city is

184、frequently affected by typhoons.This poses a serious risk to offshore wind development.In 2013,Typhoon Usagi hit the Honghaiwan Wind Farm in Shanwei,Guangdong,wiping out 70 percent of its wind turbines(Winn 2013).This resulted in 100-million-yuan worth of losses and raised the question of wind farms

185、 ability to withstand typhoons.Aside from practical constraints,financing is another issue to address.With the high capital investments needed for wind energy production,government and the citys power companies may face financing burdens with regard to the long-time payback,high risk,and low return

186、from wind energy projects.ConclusionDomestic RE is an important step for the power sector to achieve carbon neutrality but does not represent the entire solution.As shown in Table 3,aggregated domestic RE potential can only supply 10 percent of Hong Kongs electricity demand by 2050.The commissioned,

187、planned,or potential development projects for domestic RE are summarised in Table 4.Moreover,the mismatch between demand and supply also renders solar and wind energy less viable alternatives.As such,wind and solar energy may not be able to keep up with demand.Having a diverse energy mix may mitigat

188、e supply issues in grid operations,but it cannot be disregarded altogether.Energy storage solutions,such as hydrogen storage,may be helpful in resolving supply mismatches.Renewable energy may not be the central pillar of Hong Kongs transitioned low-carbon energy mix,but it has a crucial part to play

189、.Government must also broaden the fuel mix option through regional collaboration to import renewable or low-carbon electricity from elsewhere,making Hong Kongs grid cleaner and more climate proof in the process.The potential for domestic RE is less than academic projections but exceeds the existing

190、government target.Hong Kongs potential for renewable energy far exceeds that of governments 2030 target of 34 percent of the energy makeup.However,whether Hong Kong can realise this technical capacity for renewables remains to be seen.If four offshore wind farms are built,wind power has a maximum ou

191、tput potential of 11,280 TWh per year,enough to meet 25.2 percent of Hong Kongs electricity needs.Yet it is unlikely that these plans will become a reality,at least in the short to medium term.In addition,the lack of open space hinders widespread installation of onshore windfarms;the need to accommo

192、date shipping channels,conservation areas,undersea cables,and power cable landing points creates other obstacles facing large-scale offshore windfarms.Regarding solar energy,academic estimates are optimistic but unrealistic.If all rooftops and reservoirs are utilised,the maximum potential is 9.93 TW

193、h or 22.2 percent of electricity demand.Yet,land and space constraints in Hong Kong prevent high estimations of locally produced renewable energy.Hong Kongs densely populated high-rise buildings obstruct several rooftops from receiving adequate sunlight.There is a large base of support for solar ene

194、rgy in the community,and government has responded to this by introducing the FiT Scheme and other grant programs.However,costs remain high,and without more widespread POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong17regulatory changes,these efforts w

195、ont be enough to allow solar to reach its real potential.Furthermore,current efforts are aimed at building small-scale,individual PV systems,which will not lead to the large-scale solar coverage that these studies are proposing.This study established the following scenario,after a comprehensive lite

196、rature review and in-depth conversation with local and international experts.TYPE OF ENERGY%OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN 2030%OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN 2050Waste-to-energy(WtE)2%3%Solar energy1%4%Offshore wind energy1%3%STATUS TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY EXPECTED ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION GWH%OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND I

197、N 2019WtECommissioned for 2023Anaerobic digestion24 0.05%Commissioned for 2025Thermal treatment with energy recovery(MSW incinerator)480 1%Planning(beyond 2030)Anaerobic digestion24 0.05%Planning(beyond 2030)Anaerobic digestion24 0.05%Planning(beyond 2030)Anaerobic digestion24 0.05%Planning(beyond 2

198、030)Thermal treatment with energy recovery(MSW incinerator)480 1%Planning(beyond 2030)Thermal treatment with energy recovery(MSW incinerator)480 1%Total for WtE 1,543.5 3.27%Solar Potential development(2030)Solar rooftops400 0.9%Potential development(2050)Solar rooftops1,3003%Total1,7134.2%Wind Pote

199、ntial development(2030)Offshore wind farm(Southwest Lamma)175 0.4%Potential development(2030)Offshore wind farm (Southeastern Waters)4100.92%Potential development(2030)Offshore wind farm(Southeastern Waters/Waglan Island)800 1.8%Total for wind energy production1,3983.16%Total4,654.510.63%Table 3|Est

200、imate of Future Potential in This StudyTable 4|Commissioned,Planned or Potential Development for Domestic RESource:Authors estimatesSource:Authors estimate based on literature review in this Chapter.18WRIPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kon

201、g19FOSSIL FUELS WITH CCSIn 2020,natural gas contributed 48 percent of Hong Kongs electricity generation,while coal accounted for 23 percent.Despite Hong Kongs plans to phase out all coal in the future,electricity generation from natural gas would still produce worrying amounts of emissions.If CCS te

202、chnology becomes commercially available,it could abate the emissions of fossil-fuel power plants while maintaining their dispatchable power output to underpin local reliability in a flexible manner.CHAPTER 320WRIUse of Fossil Fuels and Potential for CCSCurrently,Hong Kong has four fossil fuel-fired

203、power stations in operationCastle Peak Power Station,Black Point Power Station,Pennys Bay Power Station,and Lamma Power Station.They use coal,natural gas,and oil.The current total capacity of Hong Kongs coal-fired power generation is 6,108 MW.Only one power station,CLPs Castle Peak,is dedicated to u

204、sing coal.According to their power development plans,the utility companies are actively replacing coal with natural gas for power generation.An estimated 1,650 MW of coal generation capacity is planned for retirement by 2025,while day-to-day use of coal for electricity generation is expected to be p

205、hased out entirely in the 2030s.The Castle Peak facility is expected to be phased out before 2040.With two newly added gas-fired power generation units in operation,the total capacity of gas-fired power in Hong Kong is 4,210 MW.The city uses combined-cycle gas turbine(CCGT)technology for gas-fired p

206、ower generation.Based on the companies plans,gas capacity is expected to increase to 5,580 MW in 2030(CLP 2021a;HKE 2021)Ultra-low sulphur diesel oil is utilised at Pennys Bay and Lamma,with open-cycle oil-fired gas turbines(OCGT)used to generate electricity.The OCGT units have quick-start abilities

207、 and capacity flexibility.They are used to meet load peaks and as backup for emergency responses to contingencies.The total capacity of oil-fired power generation is 1,360 MW.HKE proposes to construct and commission up to four new oil-fired OCGTs,each with a capacity of up to 130MW,to replace their

208、existing units at the Lamma facility(HKE 2020).Conventional fossil fuel-fired power plants(without CCS)produce more carbon emissions than other decarbonised energy resources and are not compatible with Hong Kongs carbon neutrality vision.Through capturing,transporting,and storing CO2 emissions,CCS t

209、echnologies could abate emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants while maintaining dispatchable power output in a flexible manner.This would be of great value to Hong Kong,where fossil fuel-based power generation is likely to perform an important role due to limited renewable energy and land re

210、sources.Globally,there are situations where CCS facilities are applied to coal-fired,natural gas-fired,and biomass power plants(including WtE)(Global CCS Institute 2020).The Asia-Pacific is an emerging region for CCS deployment,as more countries are establishing CCS strategies and developing pilot C

211、CS projects(Global CCS Institute 2020).But ensuring sufficient carbon storage capacity is a key challenge in CCS application.Studies in Guangdong have identified saline aquifers about 100 kilometres POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong21of

212、fshore that would have ample capacity for centuries of storage.Technically,this could enable Hong Kong to build a decarbonised power system with CCS.Challenges of Continued Use of Fossil Fuels and Application of CCSIn 1997,government decided against building new coal-fired power plants in an effort

213、to reduce air pollution.Since then,gas-fired power plants have gradually replaced coal.Hong Kong has already achieved a target laid out in Governments Climate Action Plan 2030+,which aimed,by 2020,for natural gas to generate about half of Hong Kongs electricity,with coal falling to 25 percent(Hong K

214、ong Steering Committee on Climate Change 2017).However,fossil fuel-fired power plants continue to dominate Hong Kongs power sector,accounting for more than 70 percent of power generation.Replacing coal with gas has both climate and air-quality benefits.Generally,when compared with coal-fired power p

215、lants,CCGT power plants emit around half the amount of CO2,one-third the amount of NOx,and virtually zero SO2.Table 5 shows the carbon and air pollutant emissions per unit of electricity output in CLPs fossil fuel-fired power plants in 2019.According to CLP data,CO2 emissions per kWh from the gas-fi

216、red Black Point are 0.404 kg,around 60 percent less than Castle Peak,which is coal-fired.Though Black Point emits less carbon emissions and air pollutants per unit of electricity than the coal-fired power plant,it alone cannot help Hong Kong meet its 2050 carbon-neutrality target.Reaching carbon neu

217、trality without applying CCS technologies requires the virtual elimination of all fossil fuel-fired power generation in Hong Kong.The transition from coal to gas significantly increases the cost of unit electricity output due to the higher associated fuel costs.The cost of power generation by natura

218、l gas is more than double that of coal(CLP 2020b).In February 2020,CLPs fuel generation costs per unit of electricity were around HK$0.70 per kWh for gas,compared with around HK$0.25 per kWh for coal(Jiang et al.2020),indicating an equivalent CO2 mitigation cost of HK$0.78/kg CO2 or US$100/ton CO2.T

219、here is growing recognition that CCS is an integral part of a least-cost portfolio of technologies needed to support the decarbonisation of power systems globally.However,CCS deployment has been slow.Currently,only two commercial CCS facilities are in operation globally,which are both CCS retrofits

220、to existing coal-fired power plants.There are no commercial CCS projects at gas-fired plants in operation today(Global CCS Institute 2020).POWER STATIONFUELCO2 EMISSIONS (kg/kWh)SO2 EMISSIONS(g/kWh)NOX EMISSIONS(g/kWh)PM EMISSIONS(g/kWh)Black PointGas0.4040.010.150.01Castle PeakCoal0.9830.261.080.04

221、Pennys BayOil1.7190.011.770.03Table 5|Carbon and Air Pollutant Emissions per Unit of Electricity Output in CLPs Fossil Fuel Power Plants in 201922WRICost has been identified as the major challenge preventing CCS-equipped power plants from being commercially viable.These costs are associated with the

222、 capture,transportation,and storage of CO2 emissions.The levelised costs of electricity(LCOE)from coal-and natural gas-fired power plants at different carbon capture rates show that carbon capture would increase the cost of electricity output per unit by 47.782.2 percent(IEA 2020a).The cost increase

223、 is dominated by the capital cost of the capture facility,usually accounting for more than half of the total cost of capture,as seen from the operating experience of the first-generation CCS retrofit plants(IEA 2020a).Additionally,the operating costs of CCS-equipped plants are much higher than conve

224、ntional plants due to the efficiency penalty required to operate the capture facility.Compared with other decarbonised energy sources,such as renewables and nuclear,the cost of electricity from CCS-equipped power plants is currently substantially more expensive.Energy penalties are another impedimen

225、t to CCS deployment in the power sector.To power the operations of CCS facilities,the energy use(and air pollutants)for the same amount of electricity output is expected to increase by around 25 percent(IPCC 2005).In addition,installing CCS cannot prevent all CO2 emissions;uncaptured emissions are e

226、stimated to be around 515 percent(Eldardiry and Habib 2018).Opportunities Carbon capture technologies can support Hong Kongs power transition towards carbon neutrality.Without carbon capture technologies,however,meeting this target would mean eliminating the use of fossil fuels for power and switchi

227、ng to local renewable energy and imported hydrogen.These options do not appear to be feasible on a large scale due to limited availability.The other solution is additional imported electricity from regional renewable or nuclear sources.CCS-equipped power plants can run for lengthy periods as base lo

228、ad plants.They can also provide a source of dispatchable,flexible capacity to quickly respond to emergencies and help Hong Kong integrate a growing share of variable renewable energy into the power system.There are numerous studies that identify the potential of technological innovations to reduce t

229、he cost of equipping power plants with CCS technologies.The cost of CCS could fall as a result of scale and learning curve effects(IEA 2020a;Dewar and Sudmeijer 2019).But CCS is projected to be a cost-competitive option post-2040,and Mainland China isnt expected to have large-scale CCS development i

230、n the power sector until after 2035.In addition to global efforts on CCS-related research and development(R&D),strong policy support and more stringent climate targets are necessary for high market CCS penetration.Ensuring that all fossil fuel-fired power plants built after 2020 are CCS-ready can re

231、duce the risk of creating stranded assets.Once built,retrofitting existing facilities with CCS could be costly or even infeasible.During the project design phase,POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong23power companies should ensure that the

232、technical requirements for CCS are considered and met.These requirements include reserving space for CO2 capture equipment,configuring turbines appropriately,ensuring the availability of cooling water and the additional flue gas pre-treatment required before CO2 capture.Also necessary will be dedica

233、ted access to auxiliary power.Hong Kong is located in a potential CCS hub.High quality and sufficient storage capacity are prerequisites,and there are several large sedimentary basins in the northern South China Sea with suitable geological conditions for CO2 storage.A previous assessment indicated

234、that CO2 storage capacity in the shelf area of the Pearl River Mouth Basin is 77 GtCO2 at an 85 percent probability level(Zhou et al.2013).This appears to be the most favourable storage area at present.From a source-sink matching perspective,there is satisfactory distance between Hong Kongs power pl

235、ants and the storage areas.Sitting in CCS hubs and utilising shared infrastructure can also lower transportation and storage costs.Guangdong has been proactively carrying out CCUS(carbon capture,utilisation,and storage)research and demonstration pilots.In May 2019,China Resources Powers Haifeng carb

236、on-capture test platform(CCTP),located on Guangdongs coast,began operations.The CCTP consists of two CCS-equipped coal-fired power generation units,with the capacity to capture 20,000 tonnes of CO2 per year.Government should proactively support CCS deployment.Government could look to provide assista

237、nce in the form of capital support,public procurement,tax credits,operation subsidies,and carbon pricing,as well as by enhancing coordination with authorities from Mainland China on CO2 storage.To increase public awareness,government could collaborate with power companies,academics,and nongovernment

238、al organisations to organise programs and activities to facilitate knowledge sharing,as well as to raise public awareness and acceptance around CCS.24WRIPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong25GREEN HYDROGEN CHAPTER 4Hydrogen has great poten

239、tial as an alternative energy source in supporting Hong Kongs carbon-neutrality goal.The utilisation of low-or zero-carbon hydrogen can reduce the citys carbon footprint,as well as strengthen its energy security,thus contributing to greater climate resilience.The power sector could benefit greatly f

240、rom hydrogens contribution to grid balancing and the management of peak load issues,thereby enhancing the reliability of the power-sector supply.26WRIIntroduction to Green Hydrogen Hydrogen has gained traction over the past few years as it is anticipated to be a key component in the transition to a

241、net-zero carbon emissions society(Timur and Turk 2019).Hydrogen itself is not an energy source but,rather a clean chemical energy carrier with the benefit of facilitating long-range transportation with high efficiency and stable storage over a long period of time.Key Hydrogen Production Technologies

242、Hydrogen can be generally classified into three categories,all with different levels of environmental cleanliness:Grey:Produced from fossil fuels and high carbon-emitting sources Blue:Produced from low carbon-emitting sources,such as steam methane reforming with CCUS,or other fossil fuels,such as fe

243、edstock with CCUS Green:Produced from zero-carbon sources,such as renewable energy via electrolysis(a process taking place in an electrolyser where zero carbon electricity is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen)Globally,75 percent of hydrogen comes from natural gas reforming;23 percent from

244、 coal gasification;and the remaining 2 percent from electrolysis(Timur and Turk 2019).Green is the goal for future hydrogen production.While the high capital and operational expenditures associated with electrolysers are the main barriers to producing entirely green hydrogen,costs are expected to de

245、crease.With hydrogen expected to be a key technology in the move towards decarbonisation,investments in research and development are expected to rise.Electrolysers are projected to have an average 18 percent learning rate(IRENA 2020),which means there will be an 18 percent decrease in costs in the l

246、ong term due to technological improvements and greater demand for electrolysers.This also means that,globally,green hydrogen is expected to become more cost competitive in comparison to grey and blue hydrogen,due to increased economies of scale of electrolysis production,as shown in Figure 9 below.M

247、oreover,the decreasing costs of renewables will help reduce costs for electrolysis and,thus,lower the costs of green hydrogen.Source:Anouti et al.2020.Figure 9|Cost-Competitive Projections for Green HydrogenUS$/kg H2Renewable LCOE(US$/MWh)30-4518-2614-1802.04.54.03.53.02.51.00.51.5GrayGrayGrayBlueBl

248、ueBlueGreen(ALK)Green(ALK)Green(ALK)Green(PEM)1.0-2.21.63.02.1-3.62.3-381.2-2.31.5-2.81.1-2.01.4-1.81.5-2.41.5-2.70.8-1.30.7-0.9201820302050Green(PEM)Green(PEM)POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong27According to cost projections,renewable h

249、ydrogen produced by electrolysis will see promising cost reductions and breakeven dynamics,due to positive projections regarding manufacturing scale,learning rates,and technological improvements (Hydrogen Council and McKinsey&Company 2021).Grey and blue hydrogen may decrease in cost competitiveness

250、because of increasing carbon costs from the implementation of carbon pricing schemes.Globally,low-carbon hydrogen could break even with grey hydrogen by 202530,subject to at-scale CO2 storage and transport infrastructure,at an expected cost of about US$3550 per ton CO2e,as shown in Figure 9(Hydrogen

251、 Council and McKinsey&Company 2021).Carbon costs are set to increase globally to$300 per ton of CO2e by 2050.Versatility of HydrogenDue to the variety of sources that can be used for its productionincluding natural gas,coal,oil,renewables,and nuclearhydrogen has high capacity and flexibility to impr

252、ove energy security(IEA 2020b).In addition,it can be directly used or converted into other products with different potential applications such as ammonia,synthetic methane,and synthetic liquid fuels.Since it acts as an energy carrier,hydrogen produced by electrolysis could be a long-term solution th

253、at increases system stability and energy resilience;reduces costs by flattening the residual load in a power system;provides grid balancing,power backup,and releasing grid constraints;and accommodates the peak load(IEA 2020b).Growing Industry DemandGlobally,hydrogen is mainly used in three areas:oil

254、 refinery,chemical production,and steel production,with 80 percent of its global consumption attributed to refineries and ammonia production,as shown in Figure 11(Tlili et al.2019).Hydrogen may also be used in the Source:Hydrogen Council and McKinsey&Company 2021.Figure 10|Timeline of Increasing Car

255、bon CostsSource:Timur Gl and Dave Turk 2019.Figure 11|Global Hydrogen Uses across IndustriesMethanol production 11%Steel production 3%Others 26%Oil refining 33%Ammonia production 27%USD per ton of CO2e20252030204001003503002502001505028WRITown gas 8.8%Oil products 43.0%generation of industrial high-

256、temperature heat.Within the building sector,hydrogen can be blended with existing natural gas networks or directly utilised as pure hydrogen for a variety of end-uses,depending on infrastructure capacity.Hong Kong could import low-cost green hydrogen as green hydrogen could then be converted into el

257、ectricity through large-scale fuel cells or mixed with natural gas in domestic power plants(Anouti et al.2020).As such,the power sector could greatly benefit from hydrogens contribution to grid balancing and its ability to manage peak load issues.New uses for hydrogen can also be anticipated,especia

258、lly as there are currently an estimated 228 hydrogen projects across the value chain globally,worth more than$300 billion,through to 2030(Hydrogen Council and McKinsey&Company 2021).Hydrogen Transportation and Storage OptionsThere are multiple transport options for hydrogen,including retrofitted pip

259、elines and natural gas blending for shorter distances;shipping hydrogen in the form of ammonia,gas tanks,or liquefied;or new and retrofitted sub-sea transmission pipelines for longer distances.Hydrogen storage capacity is also promising.Hydrogen can be stored long term,either compressed overground,l

260、iquefied in tanks,or underground in salt caverns,depleted natural gas or oil reservoirs,and aquifers(Ren et al.2020).Potential of Green Hydrogen Use in Hong Kong In Hong Kong,green hydrogen has great potential as an alternative energy carrier in supporting Hong Kongs carbon neutrality goal.Current L

261、ocal Circumstances for Hydrogen UtilisationCurrently,Hong Kong uses hydrogen as a constituent of town gas in its power system,although it is not green or zero-carbon.Town gas currently accounts for about 8.5 percent of the citys final energy requirements(Figure 12)(CSD 2020a).Town gas is produced fr

262、om naphtha and natural gas under the catalytic rich gas process mainly at the Tai Po Plant,in which hydrogen occupies 4652 percent of its composition(Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited 2020).Town gas is transmitted through underground pressured pipelines,providing energy to more than 1.9 millio

263、n customers(Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited 2020).The utilisation of low-or zero-carbon hydrogen could reduce the carbon footprint of these sectors,as well as strengthen Hong Kongs energy security and,thus,climate resiliency.However,Hong Kong is lagging here,because it would require a change

264、 in the manufacturing process,regulatory restrictions,financial barriers,and policy support gaps.Moving Hong Kong towards Hydrogen Utilisation Part of the challenge is that current safety standards and guidelines around the usage and handling of hydrogen are outdated.Hong Kongs Dangerous Goods(Gener

265、al)Regulations(Cap.295,Chapter 5)state that the maximum quantity of hydrogen permitted to enter the city without a license is one cylinder(Hong Kong e-Legislation 1964).Further to that,compressed or refrigerated liquid hydrogen,as well as fuel cell cartridges,are only permitted in Hong Kong at the g

266、eneral level of 75 units and Source:Based on data from the Census and Statistics Department.Figure 12|Hong Kongs Final Energy Demand in 2019 Electricity 47.6%POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong29at the industrial level of 150 units(Hong K

267、ong e-Legislation 1964).The maximum package size for fuel cell cartridges is 120 ml(Hong Kong e-Legislation 1964).Moreover,hydrogen in a metal hydride storage system is not permitted.With regulatory restrictions limiting the usage of hydrogen as an alternative form of energy in Hong Kong,the city wi

268、ll fall behind.Government has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.To that end,it has established a HK$200 million($25.8 million)Green Tech Fund based on recommendations from the Hong Kong Sustainable Development Councils report on medium-to long-term decarbonisation(Low 2020).While Hong Kon

269、g has indicated that its 2030 fuel mix will include a larger proportion of natural gas over nuclear power and that coal will gradually be phased out,there has been no indication yet by government that it will implement hydrogen technologies(Low 2020).Without an explicit hydrogen road map,Hong Kong w

270、ill lag.Globally,direct subsidies from local and national governments have helped accelerate the adoption of renewable technologies(Denman et al.2021)and enabled a steep annual learning curve for the growth of renewable energy capacity35 percent for solar PV and 30 percent for offshore wind energyov

271、er the past 10 years(Hydrogen Council 2021).If government were to provide similar support in the form of direct subsidies and promote green funding priorities for hydrogen technologies,Hong Kong could enable a similar learning curve for the growth and efficiency of hydrogen technologies(Denman et al

272、.2021).High costs associated with hydrogen technologies could also decrease if measures,such as the enactment of carbon pricing,were implemented(Turner et al.2021).For example,a carbon price could aid the transition to hydrogen-based energy and improve the competitiveness of low-or zero-carbon emiss

273、ion technologies more generally.Co-combusting hydrogen with natural gas in Hong Kongs three new CCGTswhich are either in operation or commissioned to begin operations within the next three yearsmay also be a viable option to aid peak load management and grid balancing.With upgrades,retrofits,and lif

274、e extensions,hydrogen can be used in newer CCGTs and would emit zero SO2,PM,CO2,and NOx emissions.However,emission levels may be the same as that from current CCGTs if flame temperatures are not controlled during combustion(Campbell 2020).Moreover,making any new fossil fuel-fired power plant built a

275、fter 2020 hydrogen-ready will support onshore hydrogen production within Hong Kong.Hydrogen can also be converted from renewable energy.However,as Hong Kong has limited green hydrogen facilities and land to produce its own renewable energy,it will likely have to import supplies from Australia,the Mi

276、ddle East,or Mainland China.In the process of importing hydrogen,it will be important to use hydrogen-based transport technologies,such as hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty vehicles and shipping vessels to prevent embodied carbon emissions.Shipping hydrogen from renewable energy hubs in Australia or the

277、 Middle East would cost$910/kg H2.In order to receive imported hydrogen,Hong Kong could implement a floating dock similar to the one being built in Hong Kong waters for receiving imported liquefied natural gas(LNG)(Timur and Turk 2019;Lau 2020).Incorporating Hydrogen into Hong Kongs Energy Demand A

278、range of energy scenarios by other external energy research organisations predict that hydrogen-based energy will cover 729 percent of global energy demand by 2050,as shown in Table 6.Taking these different scenarios into account,we assume that Hong Kongs hydrogen supply within the total energy dema

279、nd should remain unchanged.However,as green hydrogen is still an emerging technology,there is still uncertainty regarding its technological development and utilisation within Hong Kongs fuel mix.This report examines the impact of green hydrogen technologies where they contribute towards 1530 percent

280、 of power generation.30WRIChallenges and Opportunities in Adopting HydrogenHydrogen has huge potential in satisfying power issues in Hong Kong,such as peak loads,grid balancing,natural gas blending,transport,and energy security.As such,government must incorporate hydrogen technologies into its plan

281、to move towards net-zero carbon emissions.The application of hydrogen in Hong Kong does not come without challenges,though.Hydrogen utilisation on its own relies on advanced technologies.In particular,the storage and transport of hydrogen is especially difficult,relative to other fuels.Apart from st

282、oring hydrogen in fuel cells,it can be transported in gaseous and liquefied forms,both with their own advantages and disadvantages.As a gas,hydrogen can be transported within a compressed gas tube trailer or through pipelines.Moreover,hydrogens production costs are sometimes considered redundant due

283、 to an existing alternative energy carrier:electricity.The cost of producing hydrogen by electrolysis is also particularly high due to the high cost of electrolysers,as well as the electrical costs of producing low-carbon hydrogen,which could account for 60 percent of the total cost(IEA 2020b).In Ho

284、ng Kong,due to land limitations,it may be difficult to construct hydrogen production and storage facilities,as well as renewable energy REPORT/SCENARIO NAMEORGANISATIONFORECASTS FOR HYDROGEN AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND IN 2050 DATE PUBLISHEDNet Zero Energy ScenarioInternational Energy Age

285、ncy13%May 2021Final Energy Demand,ETC 2050 Indicative ScenarioEnergy Transitions Commission13%April 2021World Energy Transitions Outlook 1.5C PathwayInternational Renewable Energy Agency12%Jan 2021New Energy Outlook:Climate ScenarioBloombergNEF25%Oct 2020Energy Outlook 2020 Edition:Rapid ScenarioBP7

286、%2020Energy Outlook 2020 Edition:Net-Zero ScenarioBP16%2020The Role of Clean Hydrogen in the Future Energy Systems of Japan and Germany:German Scenariosadelphi8-11%Sept 2019The Role of Clean Hydrogen in the Future Energy Systems of Japan and Germany:Japanese Scenariosadelphi9-22%Sept 2019Hydrogen Ro

287、admap EuropeFuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking24%Jan 2019The Vision Scenario for the European Union:2017 Update for the EU-28ko-Institut e.V20%Feb 2018Eurogas ScenarioEurogas29%n.d.Average 2050 EU Final Energy ConsumptionJoint Research Commission10-23%n.d.Table 6|Summary of Global Hydrogen De

288、mand Forecasts Source:IEA 2021;Energy Transitions Commission 2021;Bloomberg 2020;BP 2020;adelphi 2019;Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking 2019;ko-Institut e.V 2018;Eurogas 2020;Joint Research Commission 2019.POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System fo

289、r Hong Kong31production facilities.As a result,government would likely need to import the majority of the citys hydrogen needs to balance excess renewable energy production in other parts of the world.Potential sources of hydrogen imports include Australia,the Middle East,and Mainland China.From Tow

290、n Gas to Clean EnergyTown Gas in Hong Kong and the Status QuoIn Hong Kong,town gas is produced solely by the Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited(HKCG).The citys consumption of town gas in 2019(8,208.33 GWh)was 10.25 percent of the total energy consumption.More than 283,000 units of gas appliance

291、s were sold to 1.91 million customer accounts that year(Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited 2020).The residential sector accounted for about 60 percent of consumption,followed by commercial(34 percent)and industrial(6 percent).Currently,town gas is produced mainly from natural gas and naphtha in

292、 Hong Kong,with a small portion from landfill gas.As for the final composition of the citys town gas,the major chemical components are hydrogen(46.351.8 percent),methane(28.230.7 percent),carbon dioxide(16.319.9 percent),small amounts of carbon monoxide(1.03.1 percent),and nitrogen and oxygen(99.995

293、99.931Power outage(minutes)1.4460Table 7|The Supply Reliability of HKE,CLP,and CSGSource:HKE 2020;CLP 2020.44WRICSG has extensive experience in long-distance transmission:The company transmits power across five provincial-level regions in ChinaGuangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,Guizhou,and Hainan.It also expo

294、rts electricity to Macao and countries such as Vietnam,Laos,and Myanmar(China Southern Power Grid n.d.).Notwithstanding its experience,the CSGs extensive transmission network means that there is a greater possibility for cascading blackouts across transmission lines.Connecting the Hong Kong grid wit

295、h a relatively less reliable power supply through a long transmission network that may be subject to adverse weather conditions and accidents could create higher reliability risks for the city.The difference between one minute and one hour of power outages is not negligible.In comparison,building a

296、dedicated circuit with a specific power station is likely to be more reliable,as it is easier to monitor one asset and one infrastructure network than to ensure the reliability of an entire power grid.There have been positive signs that CSG is committed to increasing its reliability and resilience a

297、gainst natural disasters.Between 2018 and 2022,CSG is investing over 170 billion yuan to improve the disaster-prevention capacity of the grid,and it has also committed to reducing power outages in central urban areas to less than 30 minutes per year(Zheng 2019).China is also actively developing an u

298、ltra-high-voltage AC-DC power grid connecting all six regional grids.Hong Kong should pay close attention to technical and infrastructural efforts to improve reliability(Fairley 2019).7 Furthermore,according to the Greater Bay Area Outline Development Plan,there are plans to improve energy storage a

299、nd transport systems.These developments are crucial in determining the future feasibility of connecting with the mainlands power grid.Another key component of reliability is maintenance,especially in the event of an emergency,such as a natural disaster.This is a definite concern for nuclear energy,e

300、specially with accidents in recent memory,most prominently in Japan in 2011,as mentioned earlier.Safety standards in nuclear power are continually rising,though.The Taipingling Nuclear Power Plant,currently under construction,is based on Chinas local Hualong third-generation pressurised water nuclea

301、r reactor standards.In case of an emergency,the plant can automatically shut down fission reactions and cool down the reactor cores to safe levels within 72 hours to avoid a meltdown(Asia Times Staff 2019).For renewables,reliability could be compromised in the case of extreme weather,such as typhoon

302、s.For wind energy systems in particular,violent winds could create significant stress conditions on the turbines,affecting their blades and transmission systems.Currently,technology is being upgraded.The V117-4.2 typhoon-resistant turbine,originally developed by Vestas Wind System,will be deployed a

303、t the Akita Noshiro Offshore Wind Farm Project in Japan and is expected to commence operations in 2022(MHI Vestas Offshore Wind 2020).The turbine will be able to withstand wind speeds of up to 57 m/s,or 205.2 km/h,which is approximately the wind speed of a signal 8 typhoon.When wind speeds exceed 30

304、 m/s,the wind turbine will typically stop generating power and will transition to a mode to withstand high winds(Wood 2020).These innovations need to be on the radar of government and the power companies to ensure that power infrastructure remains robust.Competition for energy resourcesCompetition f

305、or energy resources can compromise electricity supply reliability in Hong Kong.Many cities in the Greater Bay Area,including Hong Kong,share similar objectives in relation to power.Aside from ensuring energy security,many have aligned themselves with provincial decarbonisation targets.Therefore,it i

306、s likely that all locations will be competing for the same carbon energy sources.Government needs to weigh its options for zero-carbon energy as soon as possible to secure energy for the city.It should also remain open-minded about importing energy resources from elsewhere,especially if it is cost-e

307、ffective and reliable.Regulatory ChallengesHong Kong does not have the authority to regulate the operations of generators and networks in Mainland China.This makes it difficult for POWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:Pathways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong45government to be abl

308、e to exercise administrative oversight and ensure that safety and reliability standards are harmonised.It is unlikely that guaranteeing the power supply to Hong Kong is a high priority for CSG or the central government when discussing regulatory changes,while it is likely that local operators will n

309、ot be involved in high-level discussions.This may lead to unfavourable regulatory changes for Hong Kong.CostsBuilding interconnections with Mainland China will enable Hong Kong to use more cost effective and low-carbon energy resources;however,it will bring additional capital costs.The cost increase

310、s will mainly come from the construction and maintenance of cable networks for long-distance power transmission and upgrades in existing transmission networks to ensure the security of energy supply.Costs may also come from maintaining backup generator capacity in Hong Kong in the event of cascading

311、 blackouts along the CSG power transmission network.The Hong Kong Government,in its 2015 consultation,stated its concern regarding the possibility that the city might become a captive buyer in the power market(EB 2015).This could potentially be the case if Hong Kong connects directly to the CSG grid

312、;as energy demand grows,the city will have to continue to rely on the grid and accept mainland prices.However,our recommended means of collaboration with the mainland could mitigate concerns about Hong Kong becoming a captive buyer.If Hong Kongs power companies can sign PPAs with specific power plan

313、ts and form joint ventures with power generators,in theory,they will have a larger sway in the negotiation process and discussions about price stability.A relatively successful agreement that has been concluded is the Memorandum of Understanding between the National Energy Administration and the Hon

314、g Kong Special Administrative Region Government on the Supply of Natural Gas and Electricity to Hong Kong.It facilitates and protects a stable supply of nuclear energy and natural gas into the city(China National Energy Administration and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 2008).Moreover,a PPA

315、is a medium-to long-term hedging strategy to reduce price volatility.Public OpinionThe Hong Kong public is worried about the increased use of nuclear energy.Six months after the nuclear accident in Japan,a survey was conducted in Hong Kong to gauge public opinion on the issue.At the time,in Septembe

316、r 2011,only 15 percent of those surveyed believed that Hong Kong should increase its imports of nuclear energy by 2020(Friends of the Earth et al.2011).About half thought that the citys nuclear power supply should remain unchanged,and a quarter felt it should decrease.Sixty-one percent of respondent

317、s thought that the future development of the power sector should instead prioritise renewable energy.More specifically,Hong Kong residents appear to be most concerned about the threats posed by power plants close to the city in the case of a nuclear incident.Voices are especially prominent in view o

318、f the many power plants that Guangdong is constructing or planning to construct along its coastline,especially those that lie quite close to Hong Kong.While the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant has survived several large-scale typhoons in recent years,such as Mangkhut in 2018,there are still lingering c

319、oncerns that a natural disaster on the mainland could affect livelihoods and even survival in Hong Kong.Disruptions from storm surges and sea level rises will only intensify with climate change.To assuage concerns,government must maintain constant communication with the Guangdong authorities regardi

320、ng the performance of nuclear power plants and ensure that Hong Kong is protected as much as possible from future potential threats.Government and the power companies will need to communicate to Hong Kong residents the exact nature of any PPA and keep the discussion process transparent.There must be

321、 extensive plans on how Hong Kong can retain control over its power sector,and government must also conduct multiple rounds of consultations at different stages of the decision-making process to ensure the greatest degree of inclusion.46WRIPART III NET-ZERO PATHWAYSPOWERING A CARBON-FREE HONG KONG:P

322、athways Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Power System for Hong Kong47PATHWAYS TO A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS POWER SYSTEMCHAPTER 6This Chapter examines the possible pathways to a net-zero carbon power system by 2050 while meeting future energy demand and improving todays levels of energy security.In order to c

323、ompare various pathways and understand their impact on Hong Kongs power system,we evaluate the economic impact,environmental impact,health impact,and energy diversity of each one.Based on these assessments,together with additional stakeholder consultations,we explore five pathways that could help ac

324、hieve a deep decarbonised power system for Hong Kong by 2050.48WRIFive Scenarios for Potential Energy MixesScenario Setting Based on an analysis of the feasibility,opportunities,and challenges of these available technologies in Chapters 2 through 5,and through round tables and one-on-one meetings wi

325、th stakeholders,we developed five scenarios to demonstrate different combinations of available options.These decarbonisation scenarios were developed based on the following criteria:GHG emissions from power systems will be net zero(or near zero)by 2050,and the air pollutants will be significantly re

326、duced.The power system is capable of meeting the power demand in Hong Kong.The proposed energy option must be credible and plausible,in accordance with local policies and expert judgements.We then compared the impact of these scenarios with CO2 emissions,cost,air pollutants and health incidences,and

327、 energy diversity.In this analysis,we assume that existing power plants will operate until the end of their life cycle,and the coal that is routinely used to generate electricity will be phased out by 2030.After the retirement of existing power plants,new power plants will need to be built in order

328、to increase the power supply and meet steadily increasing power demand.Local renewable energy,including waste-to-energy,will be utilised at its highest potential,which is 10 percent for all scenarios,based on our evaluation in Chapters 25.Key features of each scenario are reflected in each scenario

329、title:Scenario 1Natural Gas:This scenarios energy mix is closest to the current situation.It consists of 25 percent imported nuclear,65 percent natural gas,and 10 percent local renewables.As a result,CCS must be installed for the power system to achieve the carbon-neutrality target.The offshore LNG

330、terminal being constructed in Hong Kong waters will further improve Hong Kongs long-term natural gas supply stability by diversifying supply sources and will enable procurement of natural gas at competitive prices from the global market(CLP n.d.c).Scenario 2Renewable Energy:The share of imported ren

331、ewable electricity(mainly offshore wind power)by 2050 will increase significantly from zero to 30 percent;whereas the rest of the energy mix will consist of 35 percent natural gas with CCS,25 percent imported nuclear power,and 10 percent local renewable energy.This is dependent on the construction o

332、f offshore wind farms in Hong Kongs eastern waters.Scenario 3Nuclear:The share of imported nuclear energy will increase from the current 28 percent to 50 percent by 2050;whereas the rest of the energy mix will consist of 30 percent natural gas with CCS,10 percent imported renewable energy(offshore w

333、ind power),and 10 percent local renewable energy.This scenario assumes that greater interconnections and joint ventures between Hong Kong and Mainland China will be pursued for greater shares of imported nuclear energy.Scenario 4Diversity:Energy sources are most diversified in this scenario,and hydrogen is an important emerging new energy source.The power-generation mix in 2050 will comprise 15 pe