1、Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.2023 World Economic Outlook 1/23/2023Marubeni Research Institute(Translated from the original Japanese version put out at the end of December 2022(slightly updated)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.General Outline1Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserv

2、ed.Summary2The forecast for real GDP growth in the global economy in 2023 is+2.4%YoY.Although supply constraints due to the pandemic have now run their course andprice inflation peaks as the impact of the surge in international commodity prices caused by the Ukrainian crisis wears off,reaching the 2

3、%inflation target set bythe U.S.and European central banks will still take time and thus a shift to monetary easing is not expected until 2024 or later.The financial climate remainsrestrained with some risk of recession due to the cumulative effects of monetary tightening and the unlikelihood of the

4、 Ukrainian crisis being resolved by the endof the year.In the U.S.,the labor market remains tight and the financial environment(capital investment)is likely to remain restrained for some time due to upward pressureon wages,while the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are dissipating with

5、 factors supporting consumption becoming uncertain.Also,in Europe,where energy issues are a deep concern,impacts on energy production and prices have increased the possibility of a recession.Regarding China,uncertainty remains high despite expectations for the implementation of stronger stimulus mea

6、sures against the backdrop of the rapid spreadof Covid and a very sluggish real estate market.In Japan,domestic demand should maintain a certain degree of strength as the country emerges from a delayedrecovery from the Covid pandemic,but a slowdown in overseas economies will likely weigh on the econ

7、omy.As far as the newly emerging economies go,thosedependent on the imports of resources,energy,and food will,in particular,face difficulties in their fiscal management and,as such,concerns will remain oversocial unrest and capital outflows.In general,there is no single specific driving force right

8、now behind the global economy.In terms of the commodity market,although the search for a new equilibrium point between supply and demand continues for individual commodities,prices aregenerally under downward pressure from sluggish demand growth due to the global economic downturn and risk-off moves

9、 as a result of tightening financialconditions.Rising geopolitical instability,supply constraints stemming from production adjustments,etc.,and growing production costs,including capital goodsprices and labor costs,are underpinning factors.Currently,it is expected that the duration and magnitude of

10、a recession in 2023 would be relatively short and minor.It is also likely that by 2024 inflation willsubside in many countries allowing a shift to more economy-oriented stimulation policies with global economic growth expected to return to a cruising speed ofaround 3%.Marubeni Corporation All Rights

11、 Reserved.The international community remains divided over the U.S.-China clash,Russias invasion of Ukraine and other events.Amid growing fears of a global recession,the focuswill be on the situation in Ukraine(cooperative support system,emerging countries(neutral)distancing themselves from Russia,e

12、tc.)and the struggle for scarce goods(energy/raw materials/strategic resources,semiconductors,etc.).Source:Marubeni Research Institute1-1.World Economic Outlook(1):International SituationDivisions Continue Over U.S.-China Friction,Russias Invasion of Ukraine and Other Issues3ChinaRussiaEUUKAfricaPer

13、sian Gulf CountriesIndiaASEANU.S.LatinAmericaJapanKoreaBelarusNorth KoreaUkraineAustralia/NZCanadaIranTurkeyWeapon Imports from RussiaTradition of Non-AlignedDiplomacyFood ConcernsDebt Issues With ChinaOPEC Plus Production CutsU.S.-Saudi Relations CoolingRussia-Ukraine Mediation DiplomacyNATO Member

14、ship Situation of2 Nordic Countries2023 Presidential/Parliamentary ElectionsNuclear/MissileTestsUkraine InvasionTaiwan ProblemNegotiations to ReestablishNuclearAgreement DeadlockedAlleged Supply of Drones to RussiaMass ProtestsProlonged Support for UkraineTighter Restrictions on Chinese Trade/Invest

15、mentHuman Rights SanctionsIndo-Pacific EconomicFramework(IPEF)Supports RussiaRelations WithEurope DeteriorateFocal Point(3)Will Support for Ukraine Continue?Signs of tighter domestic checks on Ukrainian aid budgets in various countries(especially the U.S.,the largest donor)amid growing fears of econ

16、omic recession.Focal Point(4):Movement over the power vacuum in the Middle EastProspects to reestablish the nuclear agreement with Iran are remote,while the cooling of U.S.-Saudi relations over the OPEC-plus production cut policy has become apparent.As the U.S.strengthens its emphasis on Asia and wi

17、thdrawal from the Middle East,China is making approaches in the Middle East,so destabilization concerns are growing.Focal Point(2)How will so-called neutral countries“respond?Neutral countries,for example in Southeast Asia,etc.,drew a line in the sanddistancing themselves from the U.S.and Europe,whi

18、ch are against Russia.However,there are signs of a change in the neutral countries attitude towardRussia,such as the joint statements issued at the G20 and APEC summits inNovember 2022 which included condemnations of Russia.The position ofneutral countries is also a focal point in the U.S.-China con

19、frontation.Current State of International RelationsRussian SanctionsEnergy ProblemFocal Point(1)What will the U.S.-China relationship look likein 2023?Conflicts over ideology and such advanced technology assemiconductors will continue.The U.S.State Departmenthas established a China House to coordina

20、te policy towardChina and strengthen its stance on managing competition.Japan has also positioned China as its greatest strategicchallengein its national security strategy.Focal Point(5)Cracks in the U.S.-European cooperative framework?The two sides have disparate security situations and differ some

21、what in their responses to the Ukrainian crisis.In addition,the EU is opposed to the U.S.policy of favoring its own companies based on the U.S.Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and is leaning toward protectionism.Focal Point(6)Is South Americas leftward leanbeing tempered?Brazil saw the rebirth of the lef

22、tist Lula administration,while Peru replaced leftist President Castillo due to corruption allegations.Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.40 30 20 100102030402022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/12対対以外対世界Russiannon-RussianWorld1-1.World Economic Outlook(2):Th

23、e Food and Energy PredicamentFollowing the Ukrainian Crisis,Securing Scarce Resources Has Become an Urgent IssueEnergy issues:Moves away from Russia are in full swing centered on the G7 and EU.Stable procurement(diversification of energy sources and suppliers),responding toprice hikes,and reducing d

24、emand are the most common and pressing problems.In the mid-to long-term,the energy transition will accelerate aiming to realize climatechange goals.Food issues:While the world population has now surpassed 8 billion,the number suffering from hunger has increased to 830 million(about 10%of the total p

25、opulation)dueto the Covid pandemic and wars.In low-income countries food insecurity will lead to growing public discontent and may develop into risk of regime change.767.99.8%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%01002003004005006007008009001,0002005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

26、2021(million persons)飢餓人口世界人口比（右軸）Growing World Population Suffering from Hunger01020304050607080901001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月2022年2021年range over the past 5 yearsEU Natural Gas Stored Reserves(%)Note:Data as of 12/20/2022Source:AGSI+(Graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)（%YoY,degree of contr

27、ibution)(actual storage volume/maximumstorage volume,%)Europe(EU+UK)Natural Gas ImportsEU target:80%by November 1st(Germany 95%)Note:Data through 1stweek of December 2022Source Bruegel(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)(weekly)4month(weekly)populationgoing hungry%of world population(right axi

28、s)Source:United Nations(Graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-1.World Economic Outlook(3)Fiscal ConcernsFiscal Deficits Skyrocket Due to Pandemic Response,but Degree of Fiscal Restructuring Needed VariesGovernment debt levels have reached record highs as

29、 a result of large-scale economic measures implemented by all countries in response to the pandemic.Pressure toexpand spending will continue as a result of climate change measures,expansion of industrial policies to enhance competitiveness in semiconductors,and strengtheningdefense capability in con

30、sideration of Chinas advancement.Expanded government debt is compounded by rising long-term interest rates with the weight of interest payments expected to increase over the next several years.However,there are differences in countries in terms of the course fiscal consolidation and normalization is

31、 taking.On the other hand,high inflation has the effect of lowering the debtburden from both the capital flow and stock perspectives.Source:IMF(Table by the Marubeni Research InstituteGovernment Debt(by country/region)12 10 8 6 4 201920212219202122先進國新興國（除中國）Note:Estimates as of 10/2022.Based on IMF

32、s regional classification.Source:IMF Fiscal Monitor(10/2022)(vertical axis:vs GDP,%)【Developed Countries】【EmergingEconomies(minus China)】(vs GDP,%)20406080100120192021222324（年）政府債務殘高（左軸）利払負擔（右軸）Outstanding Government Debt/Interest Payment Burden(vs GDP,%)【EmergingEconomies/Developing Countries】Fisca

33、l Balance5(horizontalaxis:year)【Developed Countries】01234192021222324Government debt to GDP ratio continues to rise if the long-term interest rate nominal growth rate(Dormer Theorem)interest payment burden(right axis)Outstanding government debt(left axis)(year)Note:Estimates as of 10/2022.Forecasts

34、from 2022.Based on IMFs regional classificationSource:IMF Fiscal Monitor(10/2022)(Graphs by the Marubeni Research InstituteMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.As semiconductors are universally recognized as a strategic necessity,countries,including Japan,are expanding subsidies domestically for

35、 new production facilities and toenhance R&D.Defense budgets are increasing amid growing conflicts with authoritarian regimes with Japan planning to raise its defense budget to 2%of GDP by 2027.Countries are expanding support for such major climate change measures as renewable energy,energy conserva

36、tion,and battery energy storage systems with oneexample being the U.S.Inflation ReductionAct.Expanded Expenditures in the Areas of Semiconductors,Defense/Security and Climate ChangeU.S.EuropeJapanAreaSemi-conductorsThe CHIPS Act was passed in the U.S.in August 2022 toprovide$39 billion in subsidies

37、for semiconductor productionand R&D over five years starting in FY2022.According to theSemiconductor Industry Association$200 billion in newinvestment has been announced in 16 states from 2020onward,with Intel,TSMC,Samsung Electronics,and othersplanning to build new factories.In March 2021,the EU an

38、nounced its intention to double itsshare of the global semiconductor market to 20%by 2030(Digital Compass 2030).The EU will relax state aidrestraints in strategic fields with 43 billion euros inadditional public-privatefunds to be investedby 2030.Japan will provide support for the construction of hi

39、gh-performance semiconductor production facilities under theSemiconductor Support Act(617 billion in the FY2021supplementary budget;476 billion for TSMCs Kumamotoplant,92.9 billion yen for Kioxias Yokkaichi plant,etc.).TheEconomic Security Promotion Act and budget for supply chainmeasureswillalsopro

40、videsupportfortechnologydevelopmentand production bases.Defense/SecurityThe defense-related budget for the current fiscal year wasboosted to$858 billion,+8%over the previous year,due tosupportforUkraineandTaiwanandtoreplenishweapons/ammunition stocks.Even as partisan discord inCongress deepens,stren

41、gthening national defense is one ofthe few areas where there is bipartisansupport.In response to Russias invasion of Ukraine,EU memberstates agreed to significantly increase their defensebudgets.Germany is contributing 100 billion euros inspecial funding,with defense spending to average morethan the

42、 NATO target of 2%of GDP for the next severalyears.The Kishida administration announced it would boost defensespending over the five years from FY2023 to 43 trillion yen,which is 1.6 times the current level(reaching 2%of GDP inFY2027).To secure the financial resources necessary for thisthe LDPs Tax

43、System Research Council proposed raising thecorporatetax,income tax and cigarette tax from FY24 onward.ClimateChangeMeasures$369 billion in spending was allocated for“energy security andclimate change”as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.Thisincludes tax credits for renewable energy($161 billion),

44、incentive programs for clean energy,and assistance inpurchasingEVs and energy-efficienthomes.The EUs goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions byat least 55%from 1990 levels by 2030 and to achievecarbon neutrality in 2050.Although there has been short-term movement back to fossil fuels in the wake

45、of theUkrainian crisis,the EU intends to accelerate investmentsin renewable energy and energy conservation in an effortto meet the long-termgoals.Japanhasannouncedabasicpolicyonthegreentransformation(GX),which calls for public-private investmentof 150 trillion over 10 years to achieve a 46%reduction

46、 ingreenhouse gas emissions by FY2030 compared to FY2013and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.Of this amount 20trillion is planned to be financed by the government by issuingGX bonds.61-1.World Economic Outlook(4):Moves to Expand ExpendituresPressure to Increase Spending Remains Strong to Bolster

47、 Industrial Policy and National DefenseSource:Marubeni Research InstituteMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-1.World Economic Outlook(5):World Real GDP Growth RateWorld Economy is Slowing,Major Focus is on U.S.Inflation and Monetary Policy TrendsWorld real GDP growth is expected to be+2.4%yea

48、r-on-year(YoY)in 2023and+2.8%YoY in 2024,compared to+2.9%YoY in 2022.Although someregions are still recovering from the Covid pandemic,upward pricemovement and tighter monetary policy in Europe and the United Statesshould put downward pressure on economic activity.The major focus will be on the cour

49、se of U.S.inflation and monetary policy.Although there is a sense that inflation has peaked in the U.S.,wagepressures are strong due to a tight labor market and price growth isexpected to remain higher than the 2%inflation target set by the monetaryauthorities.The policy interest rate is also expect

50、ed to remain unchanged atnear 5%until the end of the year.The cumulative effects of monetarytightening should emerge pushing down personal consumption andinvestment resulting in lower growth.Business confidence in Europe has deteriorated due to record-high pricestriggered by a recovery in demand fol

51、lowing a lull caused by the Covidcrisis and a sharp rise in energy prices.The economy should enter arecessionary phase in the first half of 2023.In terms of China,there is uncertainty over the countrys Covid policies andthe sluggish real estate market.Despite government policy responses theeconomy s

52、till lacks strength.As for Japan,although a slowdown in overseas economies will weigh onthe economy,a recovery will continue to be led by domestic demand,including revived production in the manufacturing sector and increasedconsumption in the service sector.Real Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Growth For

53、ecast(YoY,%)Note:The degree of contribution is based on purchasing power parity(PPP).The share of emerging countries tends to be larger than that based only on market exchange rates.The darker highlighted figures are much lower than the historical average(2010-19).Sources:IMF,Marubeni Research Insti

54、tute7Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.40 200204060802021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7*periods with negative year-on-year changes are circled（23年3月）住宅（23年4月）gasoline(3/2023)housing(4/2023)7.16.00.02.04.06.08.010.02021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10消費者物価指數指數(YoY,%)1-2.U.S.Inf

55、lation and Monetary Policy(1):Consumer Price Index MovementWhile Covid Became Manageable and Economy Recovered,Inflation Rose More Than PredictedThe direction of U.S.inflation and monetary policy are the most potentially impactful uncertainties for the global economy in 2023.U.S.prices seemed to hav

56、e peaked due tolower energy prices and more stable consumer goods prices.However,strong upward pressure still lingers in the housing and services sectors.Gasoline prices should run their course in the first half of 2023,while the upward momentum in housing prices will likely slow in 2023 as well.How

57、ever,there will be lag inreflecting these trends in rents.On the other hand,structural inflationary pressures are increasing as globalization recedes,supply chains become more resilient,andworkers rights become more important.U.S.Consumer Good Prices 4.0 2.00.02.04.06.08.010.02019/12019/72020/12020/

58、72021/12021/72022/12022/7食料品自動車醫療住居交通他CPI(YoY,%,contribution%points)Contribution to the CPI Growth RateRelated Itemsyear-on-year growth rate if each indicator remained at the current price throughout the 23-year period.forecast8Consumer PriceIndexCore IndexSource:U.S.Department of Labor(graphs by th

59、e Marubeni Research Institute)foodstuffapparelhealth caretransportation servicesCPIenergymotor vehicleshousingotherSource:U.S.Department of Labor(graphs by the Marubeni Research Institute)(YoY,%)Sources:AAA,Case Shiller20-City Composite Home Price Index,Zillow Rent Index(graph by the Marubeni Resear

60、ch Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.0204060801001201401601802002001200520092013201720212025中國Average Growth Rate2010-19 2023-27China7.74.6India6.96.51-1.World Economic Outlook(6):Possibility of Continued Low GrowthDeclining Growth Rate Trend Continues With the Risk of Low Growth Be

61、coming EntrenchedWorlds real GDP growth rate likely to remain low,below 3%YoY,in 2023 and 2024.It has declined even further than in the 2010s following the global financial crisis,showing particularly weakness in the emerging economies.World trade levels have also substantially slowed.As such,this a

62、 critical period for globalization.Uncertainty related to the Covid pandemic has also contributed to lower economic growth.Both advanced and emerging economies have generally recovered to their pre-Covid levels in terms of economic size,however growth rates remain below their pre-Covid trajectories,

63、except in the Euro Zone where the decline immediately after theCovid pandemic began was significant.Real GDPGrowth RatesGDPLevels:Advanced Countries 15 10 505101519801990200020102020貿易量実質GDP 6 4 2024681019801990200020102020(YoY,%)先進國新興國世界60801001201402001200520092013201720212025(2019=100)圏米國日本Averag

64、e Growth Rate2010-192023-27U.S.2.31.6Euro Zone1.41.5Japan1.21.0%Change in World Trade Volume9advanced countriesemerging economiesworld(YoY,%)Source:IMF(graphs by the Marubeni Research Institute)world tradereal GDPEuro ZoneU.S.JapanSource:IMF(graphs by the Marubeni Research Institute)GDPLevels:Emergi

65、ng Economies(2019=100)ChinaIndiaMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.02462016/32018/32020/32022/3(%)大(1年先）5年先5年5年BEI02468102016/32018/32020/32022/3賃金上昇率CPI（除）1-2.U.S.Inflation and Monetary Policy(2):Major Item Price TrendsHigh Wage Growth Maintained Due to Tight Labor MarketU.S.price rises will

66、be connected to labor market tightness and wage growth sustainability.The number of job openings in the labor market has declined from the historicallyhigh levels of mid-2022 but is still about 1.7 times the number of unemployed(pre-Covid job openings to unemployed was about 1.2 times by comparison)

67、.The tight employment situation will not cease quickly with wage hikes and upward pressure on prices,especially service sector prices,likely to continue.Expected Inflation Rate Number of Job OpeningsNote:The gasoline price is the AAA national retail average price.Sources:AAA,Case-Shiller,Zillow,U.S.

68、Commerce Department,University of Michigan,FRED(graphsby the Marubeni Research Institute)500501002016/32018/32020/32022/3(YoY,%)価格CPI（）01020302016/32018/32020/32022/3住宅価格家賃CPI（住居費）10 Housing Prices Gasoline Prices0.00.51.01.52.02.505,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002012/12013/12014/12015/12016/12017/1201

69、8/12019/12020/12021/12022/1(times)(1,000 persons)失業者數求人數求人數/失業者數（右軸）#of job openings#of unemployedjob openings/unemployed(right axis)gasoline pricesCPI(energy)(YoY,%)home pricesrentCPI(all housing)Note:Home prices:Case-Shiller(20-city index),Rent:Zillow(rent index)(YoY,%)CPI(services excluding energ

70、y)wage growth rate WagesUniversity of Michigan(1-year)5-year,5-year forward5-year BEISource:U.S.Department of Labor(graphs by the Marubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.202320240.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022

71、/72022/1010/2022personal consumption expendituredeflator+6.0core personal consumption expendituredeflator+5.01-2.U.S.Inflation and Monetary Policy(3):Monetary Policy OutlookFOMC Members Expect the Policy Interest Rate to be 5.1%by End of 2023,Significant Divergence from Markets ViewThe forward guida

72、nce range for the U.S.policy interest rate(FF rate)at the end of 2022 was 4.25-4.50%.Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)members expect interestrates to continue to rise to above 5%in 2023 and remain there until the end of the year.If prices fall to the 2%inflation level in 2024 it could allow for an

73、 interest rate cut.Onthe other hand,the market is highly concerned about a recession.Based on the view that economic considerations will take precedence over inflation,we expect interestrate cuts to begin earlier,in the second half of 2023,bringing the FF rate to around 4.5%by the end of 2023.Moneta

74、ry policy authorities and the market are sharply dividedon their views over this.Source:U.S.Federal Reserve BoardFOMC Members Current OutlookNote:Figures are the median predicted values by the members.Figures in parentheses represent the previous(9/2022)forecast.The real GDP growth rates and price i

75、ndex rates are October-December YoY,and the unemployment rate is the average for the same period.(unit:%)Economic IndicatorsPolicy Interest Rate(dot chart)12/2022 FF interest rate:4.25-4.5as of 9/2022as of 12/20222.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5(%)6.0indicates mid-point level of forecasteach members forecas

76、tSource:U.S.Commerce Department(graphs by the Marubeni Research Institute)Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator(price index)2022202320242025long-termlevelsReal GDPGrowth Rate0.50.51.61.81.8(0.2)(1.2)(1.7)(1.8)(1.8)UnemploymentRate3.74.64.64.54.0(3.8)(4.4)(4.0)(4.3)(4.0)PCEPrice Index5.63.12.52.1

77、2.0(5.4)(2.8)(2.3)(2.0)(2.0)Core PCEPrice Index4.83.52.52.1(4.5)(3.1)(2.3)(2.1)1120232024Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-2.U.S.Inflation and Monetary Policy(4):Price and Monetary Policy ViewsIn the Main Scenario Inflation Improves but Not Sufficiently,the Policy Interest Rate Remains Unch

78、anged at Near 5%In the first half of 2023,so-called“excess savings”built-up during the Covid pandemic will bolster consumption,however the cumulative effects of monetary tightening willemerge in the second half of the year leading to a decline in consumption and investment and a rise in the unemploy

79、ment rate thus exerting downward pressure on prices.While inflation is likely to improve due to weaker resource prices and lower demand,it is unlikely to reach the policymakers 2%inflation target as wage growth shouldcontinue through the first half of the year.As such,we expect the policy interest r

80、ate to be raised to around 5%in the first half of the year and then left unchanged at leastuntil the end of 2023.0123456789102012/012012/082013/032013/102014/052014/122015/072016/022016/092017/042017/112018/062019/012019/082020/032020/102021/052021/12量的緩和期量的引締期Assets Held by the FRB+4.7 trilliondoll

81、ars+1.6 trilliondollarsstart of previousinterest rate hike(12/2015)1-yearlag($trillion)start of currentrate hikes(3/2022)2023 Monetary Policy Outlook01234567051015202530354019941999 2004 2015 currentinterestratehikestartNote:The month in which each interest rate hike phase begins is set as 1 with po

82、licy interest rates compared on a monthly basisInterest rate hikes will likely conclude in the first half of 2023 with a prolonged period of unchanged rates at least until the end of 2023.Interest Rate Trends/Past ComparisonsPerspective12(%)(months)quantitative easingtaperingquantitative tighteningS

83、ources:FRB,IMF(graphs by the Marubeni Research Institute)SectorOutlookHousing MarketThe fallout from monetary tightening has already manifesteditself in the decline in housing demand with marketadjustments expected to continue throughout 2023.Real EconomyConsumption and investment will be sharply do

84、wn in thesecond half of the year under pressure from high prices andthe diminishing effects from excess savings accumulatedduring the Covid crisis.Labor MarketThe tight labor market and rising wages will sustainconsumption and investment somewhat in the first half of theyear and will give the main b

85、oost to prices in 2023.Financial MarketWeakness in stocks and bonds is likely due to the effects ofmonetary tightening and the reverse asset effect will weigh onconsumption.A frail global economy has also hurt commoditymarkets.Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.40.0 20.00.020.040.060.0-12-6061

86、21824(monthly),start of interest hike phase=0)過去5回利上局面利上局面平均値2022年3月0期Number of Newly Constructed Housing Units(YoY,%)The effects of tight monetary policy will be felt through changes in such financial market conditions as medium-and long-term interest rates,asset prices,exchange rates andbank lendi

87、ng rates leading to a slowdown in consumption,private investment(including housing),net exports,and other components of the real economy,as well as spillingover into a decline in overall price levels.At present,in the U.S.,the housing market and other sectors sensitive to interest rate fluctuations

88、are already showing signs ofsoftening,but the current interest rate hike phase is characterized by a more rapid pace of rate hikes than in the past,which is expected to place greater strain on economicactivity.Note:The past five interest rate hike phases before the most recent one,3/1983-3/1984,1/19

89、87-2/1989,2/1994-2/1995,6/6/2004-2006,12/2015-12/2018,are shown in the above graphs with the start of the most recent interest rate hike phase(shown by months)=0 with the change in the index before and after the rate hike phase started.Sources:U.S.Commerce and Labor Departments,FRB,(graphs by the Ma

90、rubeni Research Institute)1-3.Economic Impact of Monetary Tightening(1):Real Economy SlowdownPersonal Consumption/Private Investment Tends to Slacken During a Policy Interest Rate Hike Phase Changes in Economic Indicators During Interest Rate Hike Phases:U.S.Example0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.

91、020.0-4-3-2-1012345678(quarterly,start of interest hike phase=0)過去5回利上局面利上局面平均値2022Q1=0期Real PersonalConsumption Expenditure(YoY,%)15.0 10.0 5.00.05.010.015.020.025.0-4-3-2-1012345678quarterly,start of interest hike phase=0)過去5回利上局面利上局面平均値2022Q1=0期Private InvestmentReal Gross Domestic Investment(YoY

92、,%)recent interest rate hike phaserecent interestrate hike phaseduring past 5 interest rate hike phasesaverage during interest rate hike all 5 phases2022 Q1=0during past 5 interest rate hike phasesaverage during interest rate hike all 5 phases2022 Q1=0recent interest rate hike phaseduring last 5 int

93、erest rate hike phasesaverage during interest rate hike all 5 phases3/2022=013Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.As of Q2 2022 excess savings was about$1.7 trillion(about 10%of annual personal consumption)which was a decrease of about$0.3 trillion from the previous quarter.If thecurrent pace c

94、ontinues,support for consumption from excess savings may dry up some time in the second half of 2023 with the feeling that an economic slowdown is takingplace likely intensifying.During the recovery period from the Covid crisis the savings rate reached a historic low of 2.3%as a result of increased

95、personal consumption in the absence of disposableincome growth.05001,0001,5002,0002,5002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q2($billion)855616 71 217 265 50005001,0001,5002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q2($billion)財政支援支出所得合計 Excess Savings Rate0.0%5.0%

96、10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3($billion)可処分所得個人消費支出貯蓄率（右軸）1-3.Economic Impact of Monetary Tightening(2):“Excess Savings”Bolsters ConsumptionConsumptions Boost From“Excess Savings”Will Run its Course in the 2n

97、dHalf of 2023 14Source:FRB,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Excess Savings(stock)Excess Savings(flow)Source:FRB,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)financial supportexpendituresIncometotaldisposable incomepersonal consumption expendituresexcess savings rateSource:FRB,(graph by the Mar

98、ubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.In the short term,the widening Japan-U.S.interest rate differential connected to U.S.moves to normalize monetary policy and changes in balance of payments trends putpressure on the yen leading to its weakening against the U.S.dollar.T

99、he real effective exchange rate,which indicates the ability or competitiveness of a currency to trade in goods,is based on an assumed equilibrium exchange rate(long-termaverage)versus other currencies.In this respect,the U.S.dollar is currently overvalued and the Japanese yen is historically underva

100、lued,and the yens depreciation againstthe dollar is excessive in terms of arbitrage in trade in goods prices.By way of background,differences in economic growth rates,price inflation rates and the direction ofmonetary policy exist between the U.S.and Japan.1-3.Economic Impact of Monetary Tightening(

101、3):Exchange Rate EffectsWidening Interest Rate Differentials/Balance of Payment Trends Have Led to Yen Depreciation,Yens Real Effective Exchange Rate Undervalued15$to/Japan-U.S.Interest Rate Differential112233445561051101151201251301351401451501551602022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/820

102、22/92022/102022/112022/12円5年物金利差(右軸)(%points)(/$)Note:The interest rate differential is U.S.government bond yield minus the Japanese government bond yield.Source:Refinitiv,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)50607080901001101201301401501973197819831988199319982003200820132018円長期平均 Real Effecti

103、ve Exchange Rates(2010 average=100)highvaluelowvalue Japans Balance of Payments 4 3 2 1012342019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7貿易収支収支第一次所得収支(trillion yen)Source:Japan Finance Ministry,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Note:The real effective exchange rate is based on trade weigh

104、t and a deflator(inflation)and indexed to other currencies.Data as of 11/2022Source BIS,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)$to 5-year interest rate differential (right axis)goods balanceservices balanceprimary income balanceeuro$long-term averageMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-3.Ec

105、onomic Impact of Monetary Tightening(4):Economic Trends in Emerging EconomiesInterest Rate Hike Response On Pause in Various Countries,Watching Direction of U.S.Monetary PolicyAs the U.S tightened monetary policy in 2022 other countries also began to initiate interest rate hikes.Some emerging econom

106、ies may begin to cut interest rates overeconomic slowdown concerns.In numerous countries,inflation remains above their central banks inflation targets(usually between 2%-4%)mainly due to high resource and food prices,however,there arenow signs of economic stagnation appearing.Fuel and food subsidies

107、,price controls and other measures are being implemented in response to strong inflation and capital outflow concerns.Some countries arestrengthening measures to attract inward investment.Responses by Country(non-monetary policy)Sources Various media reports,official announcements(table by the Marub

108、eni Research Institute)Consumer Price Index(CPI)Source:CEIC Policy Interest Rate TrendsNote 1:*borrowing rate,*re-finance rate,*lending rateNote 2:Deficits projected at the end of 2023 are countries with interest rates below the level at the end of 2022Sources:CEIC,JPM(table by the Marubeni Research

109、 Institute)16Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-3.Economic Impact of Monetary Tightening(5):Emerging Economy Capital OutflowsCapital Outflows/Currency Depreciation in Emerging Markets as U.S.Tightens Monetary PolicyCapital outflows are occurring mainly in local currency-denominated bond mark

110、ets of emerging economies.However,it has been limited compared to 2013 when it wasannounced that U.S.monetary easing would be cut back.Central banks in various emerging economies continued to raise interest rates in 2022,however,their currencies generally weakened against the dollar.The situation wi

111、llcontinue to depend on the direction of U.S.monetary policy.Currency depreciation in a number of countries is partly due to widening trade deficits caused by high resource and food prices.There is currency depreciation pressuregenerated countries that are net importers of resources and food.Emergin

112、g Economy Currencies(vs$)Source:Refinitiv 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10010202022/12022/32022/52022/72022/9債券株式Note:Bonds denominated in local currencySource:IMF“International Financial Stability Report(10/2022)Emerging Economy Bond/Stock Market Capital Flows(cumulative,$billion)2022/12022/32022/52022/7202

113、2/9Other than ChinaChina(changes from start of the year,%)17bondsstocksResources/Food Net Imports/ExportsNote:Net shows the trade balance for the above itemsSource:IMF,World Bank(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-3.Economic Impact of Monetary Tighten

114、ing(6):Emerging Economy Sovereign RiskRising Cost of External Debt Repayments Due to Stronger Dollar/Higher U.S.Interest Rates Higher debt repayment costs due to stronger dollar/higher U.S.interest rates and higher import costs due to higher energy and food prices to weigh on emergingeconomy finance

115、s.Sovereign risk-related indicators for major emerging economies(red:high risk to green:low risk)Note:*CFR Index CFR is a U.S.think tank that independently calculates sovereign risk based on eight indicators(range 0-10,with higher numbers indicating higher risk)*Political Stability Index:The World B

116、anks assessment of the likelihood of government destabilization or overthrow by violent means,etc.(range:-2.5 to 2.5 with higher numbers indicating greater stability)*CDS is the spread value(=CDS guaranteerate)+Credit ratings are for long-term foreign currency denominated debt as of 8/31/2022.Rating

117、s in red are below investment grade(BBB-,Baa3).Sources:IMF,World Bank,Refinitiv,CFR (table by the Marubeni Research Institute)18Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-4.Commodity Price Outlook(1):Crude OilStrong Downward Price Pressure Due to Economic Slowdown,but Also Supportive FactorsWTI Pric

118、e Outlook$per barrelSources:Refinitiv,EIA,Marubeni Research Institute World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance(millionbarrels per day)(million barrels per day)-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07580859095100105Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42020202120222023forecast(2022 Q4)supply(left axis)demand(le

119、ft axis)change in inventories(right axis)0204060801001201402020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7Red:NY Market(dotted line is futures price as of 12/24/22Grey:Reuters Survey(as of 11/30/22,aggregate)Black:U.S.Energy Information Administration(12/22 monthly report)Source:EIA“Sho

120、rt-Term Outlook December 2022”(graphby the Marubeni Research Institute)Sluggish demand growth due to the global economic downturn and risk-off trends are also expected to exert downward pressure on prices in the near term.On the otherhand,there are such supply contraction factors as OPEC-plus produc

121、tion cuts,shrinking Russian exports,and stagnant growth in U.S.production.We expect prices todecline going forward,albeit modestly,owing to uncertainty over sanctions against Russia mainly in Europe and the U.S.,low OECD inventories,and concerns aboutslowing upstream investment amid decarbonization

122、efforts.19Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7production(mine)production(smelter)consumption(refined copper)0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0202120222023Copper Price Outlook(LME 3-month futures)($per ton)Demand for

123、 refined copper has fallen off as a result of the global(especially Chinese)economic slowdown with supply now outstripping demand.Mine production is expectedto increase significantly in Chile,Peru,and DR Congo.On the other hand,the downside is limited as a consequence of rising energy and labor cost

124、s,expectations ofincreased demand for energy conversion(transition)applications,increased costs related to reducing environmental impacts during production,and concerns overdiminished long-term production due to deteriorating production conditions in major producing regions.World Copper Production/C

125、onsumption Outlook(YoY,%,)Source:International Copper Study Groups(ICSG)“Copper Market Forecast 2022/2023(10/2022)1-4.Commodity Price Outlook(2):CopperPrice Declines as World/Chinese Economies Slow,but Downside Limited Due to Demand Boost from the Energy TransitionRed:London Metal Exchange(dotted li

126、ne ids futures price as of 12/14/22)Grey:Reuters Survey(as of 1/11/22,aggregate)Green:Australia DISER(9/22)*Black:IMF(10/22)*Blue:World Bank(10/22)*is the most recent futures(cash)forecast adjusted to 3-month futures atan average spread of$23 through20/22Sources:Refinitiv,IMF,World Bank,Australian D

127、epartment of Industry,Science,Energy and Resources(DISER),Marubeni Research Institute20Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.01002003004005006007002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/70501001502002502020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7($per ton)Globa

128、l crude steel production has picked up a bit,but blast furnace production growth has been sluggish.Weak steel demand and Chinas measures to curb steel productionalso weigh on prices.Iron ore supply has risen due to higher production in Brazil andAustralia and a recovery in Ukrainian production,while

129、 import demand was weak and oversupply expanded.In terms of coal,a respite in the surge of coal prices and sluggish import demand will put downward pressure on prices,however,the downward pressure on Australian coalprices will be limited due to the continued avoidance of Russian coal purchases.The m

130、ain factors related to price fluctuations are Chinas embargo on Australian coal,theLa Nia phenomenon,andAustralian coal shipment disruptions stemming from strikes and other factors.Coking Coal Price Outlook(CFR China,62%iron)(FOBAustralia Premium Coking Coal)1-4.Commodity Price Outlook(3):Iron Ore/C

131、oking CoalGlobal Crude Steel Production Slightly Recovers,but Soft Owing to Sluggish Steel Demand*Adjusted FOB Australia forecast for CFR China using the$15 difference from the IMF forecast for 2021.Red:Singapore Market(dotted line shows futures price as 12/14/22)Green:Australia DISER(9/22)*Black:IM

132、F(10/22)Blue World Bank(10/22)Red:Singapore Market(dotted line shows futures price as 12/14/22)Green:Australia DISER(9/22)21($per ton)Sources:Refinitiv,IMF,World Bank,Australian Department of Industry,Science,Energy and Resources(DISER),Marubeni Research Institute Iron Ore Price OutlookMarubeni Corp

133、oration All Rights Reserved.2003004005006007008009002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7 Corn Price Outlook(cent per bushelUpside price factors from the Ukrainian crisis have eased for both corn and soybeans.Prices will still be bolstered though,by low U.S.inventory levels an

134、d weather factorsin North American grain producing regions through the summer.However,prices will come under downward pressure in the next fiscal year,which begins in September,dueto higher ending inventories.In terms of corn,the South American corn crop is the best ever and U.S.corn acreage is also

135、 expanding.Yet demand for ethanol is sluggish due to softening crude oil prices.As for soybeans,Chinese imports will expand but demand for U.S.soybeans will slow as SouthAmerican production will expand significantly.1-4.Commodity Price Outlook(3):Corn/SoybeansPrice Softens Due to Lessening Impact Fr

136、om Ukrainian Crisis/Easing in Supply and DemandRed:Chicago Market(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/14/22)Green:U.S.Department ofAgriculture(11/22)*Blue:World Bank(10/22)*Black IMF(9/22)*Chicagomarket pricesadjustedbased on 2021.6008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/120

137、22/72023/12023/72024/12024/722(cent per bushelRed:Chicago Market(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/14/22)Green:U.S.Department ofAgriculture(11/22)*Blue:World Bank(10/22)*Black IMF(9/22)*Chicagomarket pricesadjustedbased on 2021.Soybean Price OutlookSources:Refinitiv,IMF,World Bank,U.S.Depart

138、ment of Agriculture,Marubeni Research InstituteMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-5.Risk Factors(1):Failed Government Policy ResponsesRisk of Policy Response Failure Increases if an Economic Downturn Leads to“Inward-Looking”PoliticsThe coexistence of high inflation and fears of an economic d

139、ownturn further heightens the need for balanced monetary and fiscal policies.For the time being,monetary andfiscal management will continue to be inflation-focused and tight,however,if economic slowdown concerns become prevalent there will be incentive for stimulus measures.Momentum for internationa

140、l cooperation is weak due to the growing confrontation between the U.S.and China and the burgeoning influence of authoritarian countries.If thepolitical climate becomes more inward-looking or self-centered amid growing fears of recession in major countries,international coordination on monetary poli

141、cy and otherareas will weaken with the risk of discrepancies in crisis and other responses as well.Concern Over International Policy Coordination FailureSource:Marubeni Research Institute Monetary/Fiscal Policy BalanceStrong dollar exchange rate U.S./non-U.S.(especiallyemergingeconomies)U.S.monetary

142、 tightening has led to capital outflows and currency depreciation,particularly inemerging economies.The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting(10/22)saw differing and conflicting opinions on the matter.EU Inflation Control and Energy Crisis EU/EU member statesThe European Commissio

143、n noted that if countries energy crisis measures function as fiscalstimulus,they would run counter to the ECBs tighteningmeasuresto curb inflationDebt Restructuring Negotiations Debtor countries/creditor countries(especially China)Such countries as Sri Lanka and Zambia,etc.,that are in default,have

144、begun negotiations ondebt restructuring.However,there have been some difficulties in entering negotiations withChina,a major creditor country.Food/FertilizerAssistance for Low-IncomeCountries Russia/Europe,U.S.The World Food Program(WFP)has warned of a worsening in the food crisis in 2023.Meanwhile,

145、Russia is causing problems over the agreement on Ukrainian agricultural exportsand other issues.Energy Supply Difficulties Oil producing countries(OPEC Plus/oilconsumingcountriesThe U.S.opposes the October 22 OPEC Plus production cut agreement.The Russianproduced oil price cap measure may cause diss

146、atisfaction in oil-producing countries as priceinterventionby consumingcountries.23Source:Marubeni Research InstituteMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-5.Risk Factors(2):Chinas Economy/Real Estate Market RisksChinas Depressed Housing Market Weighs on the Economy Housing MarketChinas housing

147、sector facing its most problematic situation since its transition to market-based transactions in the late 1990s.There has been a significant and prolongeddrop in sales with prices continuing to fall.Since 2016,the government has strictly regulated the total volume of mortgages and loans as a bubble

148、 control measure.Lending for housing has shrunk in terms of bothflows and stockAlthough a market recovery is expected to be supported by measures aimed at leveraging the residential housing sector,the recovery is not expected to be strong due tothe lack of significant easing of bubble suppression me

149、asures.(YoY,%)Real GDP Growth Rate(changes in IMF forecast)Percentage of Housing LoansSource:IMF(new financing ratio/financing residual ratio)50 30 101030507090110130150 10 5051015202530200620072008201020112013201420152017201820202021新築住宅販売面積（右軸）70主要都市新築住宅価格指數new home sales total area(right axis)70

150、major cities new home price index0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%20102011201220122013201420152016201720182019202020212022住宅向融資割合（）住宅向融資割合（）012345678920202021202220232024202520262027Oct-19Oct-20Oct-21Oct-2224percentage of loans for housing(flow)percentage of loans for housing(stock)(YoY,%)Source:China

151、s Central Statistics BureauMost recent:11/2022Source:Chinas Central Statistics BureauMost recent:7-9/2022Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.U.S./Europe:Debt Issuance Status of Companies with Low Credit Ratings($billion)1-5.Risk Factors(3):Impact on Corporate DebtProtracted High Inflation Incre

152、ases the Default Risk of Vulnerable Firms Whose Lives Were Extended During the Covid Crisis Outstanding Corporate DebtNote:Total of corporate bonds issued by less than investment grade companies(high yield bonds)and loans to these companies(leveraged loans).Source:IMF“International Financial Stabili

153、ty Report(10/2022)(vs GDP,%,PPP basis)While government and central bank Covid support measures reduced the risk of corporate default,corporate debt has now ballooned to record levels.Subsequently,soaring energy and raw material prices and rising wages put pressure on earnings while the financing cli

154、mate has worsened due to monetary tightening andrecession fears.Prolonged high costs raise the risk of default through deteriorating corporate profitability and lead to an increase in bankruptcies of companies whose existence wasextended during the Covid crisis(Covid loans,etc.).55606570758085909510

155、01051102008/032009/042010/052011/062012/072013/082014/092015/102016/112017/122019/012020/022021/03先進國新興國Note:Based on BIS regional classification excluding the financial sector.Source:BIS(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002006200720082009201020112012201320

156、1420152016201720182019202020212022歐州米國full year(forecast)）Interest Coverage Ratio Classification of Corporate Debt Note:The interest coverage ratio is an index of net income before interest andtaxes divided by interest expense.The above chart is the result of sensitivityanalysis by the IMF as of Oct

157、ober 2022.At time of Covid crisis is estimated inreferenceto the high inflation of the 1970s-80s.Source:IMF“InternationalFinancial Stability Report(10/2022)(gross debt ratio,%)0102030405060708090100現在危機発生時現在危機発生時現在危機発生時大企業中企業小企業0以下033以上advanced countriesemerging economiesEuropeU.SIssued at timeof Co

158、vid crisiscurrentlarge size companiesissued at timeof Covid crisiscurrentmedium size companiesissued at timeof Covid crisiscurrentsmall size companiesbelow 0 0-3 above 3 25Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-5.Risk Factors(4):Banking Sector Health ImprovesGlobal Financial System Instability i

159、s Unlikely,but Emerging Market Banks Have Relatively Higher Vulnerability Non-Performing Loan Ratio(vs all loans)IMF Stress Test Results:By Capital Adequacy Ratio(see note)Classification BanksCapital Adequacy Ratio(vs risk assets)(banks asset base,%)The banking sectors financial health has improved

160、across the board over the past decade.Global monetary tightening,in some respects,is having a positive impact onbanks interest income.According to IMF stress tests,the banking sector in most countries has sufficient capital to withstand severe stagflation(i.e.,absorb losses),butabout 30%of banks in

161、emerging countries are expected to fall below the lower limit of capital adequacy regulations(CET1 ratio of 4.5%).020406080100202120242021202420212024世界先進國新興國=13%(vs risk assets,%)Note:Capital adequacy ratios are on a CET1(Common Equity Tier 1)basis,based on the IMF stress scenario published in Octo

162、ber 2022(assuming stagflation in 2023 and negative growth rates in both advanced and emerging economies).Source:IMF“International Financial Stability Report(10/2022)26(vs all loans,%)Source:IMF,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Note:2021 data for Germany has not been published yet.Source:IMF

163、,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)worldadvanced countriesemerging economiesMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.1-6.2023 Main Political/Economic ScheduleG7 Chaired by Japan,G20 by India,and APEC by the U.S.Note:Schedule is provisional at the time of this survey(end of November 2022).Not

164、e:Those events without a date or are preceded by“by”are events with a yet-to-be-determined implementation date.Country/Region International Meetings,Summits,etc.DateRegionEventundecidedWorldBRICS Summit(South Africa)undecidedWorldWorld Trade Organization(WTO)Ministerial Conferenceundecided(2 yearly)

165、AsiaASEAN Summit(Indonesia)UndecidedAsiaShanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)Summit(India)January 16-20WorldWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting(Davos,SwitzerlandMarch 23-24Europe/CISEU CouncilMeeting(Belgium)Around March-AprilLatin AmericaInter-American Development Bank(IDB)Annual Meting(Panama)Apr

166、il 14-16WorldIMF/World Bank Spring Meeting(U.S.,Washington D.C.)around AprilAsiaBoao Forum for Asia Annual Meeting(China)May 2-5AsiaAsian Development Bank(ADB)k Annual Meeting(Korea,Incheon9May 16-18Europe/CISEBRD 32ndAnnual Meeting and Business Forum(Uzbekistan)May 19-21WorldG7 Summit(Japan,Hiroshi

167、ma)May 21-30WorldWorld Health Organization(WHO)World Health Assembly(Switzerland)May 22-26AfricaAnnual African Development Bank(ADB)Meeting(Egypt)May 5-16WorldInternational Labor Organizations(ILO)International Labor Conference June 29-30Europe/CISEU Council Meeting(Belgium)July 11-12WorldNATO Summi

168、t(Lithuania)September 5-8Europe/CISEastern EconomicForum.(Russia)September 25-26AsiaAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)Annual Meeting(Egypt)September 9-10WorldG20 Summit(India,New Delhi)SeptemberWorld78thSession of the UN General Assembly(U.S.)October 13-15WorldIMF/World Bank Fall Meeting(Mor

169、occo,Marrakech)October 26-27EuropeCISEU Council Meeting(Belgium)Nov.30-Dec.12WorldCOP 28(Egypt)NovemberAsiaAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)Summit(U.S.)around DecemberAsiaASEAN-Japan Summit(Japan,Tokyo)DateRegionEventJanuary13-14Europe/CISCzech presidentialelectionJanuary 21-27AsiaChinese new

170、year holidaysJanuaryAsiaOrdinary sessionof the Diet(Japan)February 5Europe/CISCyprus presidentialelectionFebruary 24Europe/CIS1-year mark of the Russian invasion of UkraineFebruary 25AfricaNigeria presidential/parliamentary electionsMarch 5Europe/CISEstonia parliamentary electionMarch 22-April 20Wor

171、ldRamadan(month of fasting)MarchAsiaNational Peoples Congress(China)by MarchLatin AmericaCuba parliamentary electionApril 2Europe/CISFinaland parliamentary electionApril 9-23AsaJapan nationwide local electionsMay 6Europe/CISOfficial coronation of King Charles III(UK)June 8Europe/CISGreece parliament

172、aryelectionJune18Europe/CISTurkey presidential/parliamentary electionsJune 25Latin AmericaGuatemala presidential/parliamentary electionsJune 30WorldLIBOR completelyabolishedJuly 23AsiaThailand generalelectionby AugustAsiaMyanmargeneral electionSept.8-Oct.28Europe/CISRugby World Cup 2023 FranceOctobe

173、r 23Europe/CISSwitzerland federal electionOctober 29Latin AmericaArgentina general electionOctober 29Europe/CISUkraine parliamentaryelectionOctober World50th anniversaryof the first oil shock(crisis)by November 11AsiaPakistan generalelectionIn the fallEurope/CISPoland parliamentaryelectionby Decembe

174、r 1AsiaBangladeshgeneral electionby December 10Europe/CISSpain general electionby December 31AfricaDemocraticRepublic of the Congo(DRC)general electionaround DecemberAsiaCentral EconomicWork Conference(China)27Sources Various official announcements and media reports(table by the Marubeni Research In

175、stitute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Major Regions2829-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0-6-5-4-3-2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122021年12月=0期景気後退期（19482008）平均(%)In the first half of 2022,real gross domestic product(GDP)recorded negative growth for the second consecutive quarters due to downward press

176、ure from a drop off in thehousing market and burgeoning trade deficit,etc.Although positive growth was recorded in the July-September period,a downturn is expected going forward,especially indomestic demand which includes consumer spending.Nominal income is increasing due to wage growth and other fa

177、ctors,but real disposable income(inflation-adjusted)will fall below the historical trend due to inflation.Ahigher unemployment rate,common in past recessions,has yet to rise.However,a change in the employment situation would further the sense that the economy is stalling.2-1.U.S.:Main Economic Indic

178、atorsDemand Declines Under the Impact of Monetary Tightening Measures,Labor Market Remains Resilient.Unemployment Rate:Past Recession ComparisonsNote:A 0 on the horizontal axis indicates the peak quarter(month)of the economic cycle.Source:U.S.Labor Department(graphby the Marubeni Research Institute)

179、Real Disposable Income(2019 4Q=100)95100105110115120Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019202020212022(dotted line:2015 4Q20194 Q trend line)period from peak month(monthly)(YoY,%)Real GDP Growth Rate 6 4 202468101221Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3個人消費民間資本形成純輸出政府支出GDP成長率2022 Q3GDP growth rate+3.

180、2%Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.personal consumptiongvt.expenditureprivate capital formationGDP growth ratenet exportsSource:U.S.Commerce Department(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Source:U.S.Commerce Department(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)12/2021=0 periodpast econom

181、ic recessions(19482008)averageMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.0%25%50%75%100%2019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7Classifying PCE Componentsby Price Volatility(YoY,%)0%未満0%以上1.5%未満1.5%以上2.5%未満2.5%以上4.0%未満4.0%以上2-2.U.S.:Inflation TrendInflation Remains Persistent Across a Wide Ran

182、ge of Goods But is Peaking,2%Target Still Out of Reach Prices are still rising in a wide range of items,with more than half of the components of the price index(PCE deflator)recording a year-on-year increase of more than 4%.Although the rate of increase has already contracted in the flexible(elastic

183、)price index for energy and other items with extreme price volatility,and the rate of increase for“sticky-price”items with less frequent price volatility is also showing signs of leveling off,it is expected to take some time for them to converge and hit the 2%price targetlevel of the Federal Reserve

184、 Bank(FED).According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks Survey of Consumer Expectations,both one-year and three-year expected inflation rates are falling.Less Volatile Sticky-Price Items Price Index Levels Off Price Increases in a Wide Range of Items 10.0 5.00.05.010.015.020.025.02019/12019/72

185、020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7弾力価格CPI粘著価格CPI(YoY,%)Note:Flexible Price CPI:Index composed of goods/services whose prices tend to fluctuate infrequently(low volatility)Sticky Price Index:Sticky-Price CPI:Index composed of goods/services whose prices fluctuate frequently(high volatility)Source:At

186、lanta Federal Reserve Bank(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)300.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02020/1/12020/7/12021/1/12021/7/12022/1/12022/7/11年先期待率3年先期待率 Expected Inflation ShrinkingNote:Percentage calculated using 154 medium-range items as a denominatorSource:NY Federal Reserve Bank(graph by th

187、e Marubeni Research Institute)(%)less than 0%more than 1.5%less than 2.5%more than 4.0%more than 0%less than 1.5%more than 2.5%less than 4.0%Note:Percentage calculated using 154 medium-range items as a denominatorSource:U.S.Labor Department(graphby the Marubeni Research Institute)Flexible Price CPIS

188、ticky-Price CPI1-year expected inflation rate3-year expected inflation rateMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.2-3.U.S.:Focal PointsCongress Becomes“Divided Government Following Midterms,Moves Toward 2024 Presidential Election AccelerateFocal PointCurrent Situation/OutlookRunning,functioning of

189、 Congress after the midterm elections U.S.Congress divided state:The Democrats gained one seat in the Senate and maintained the Senate majority 51-49,while the Republicans regained the majority in theHouse of Representatives 222-2i3,creating a“divided government”situation where the presidents party

190、has a majority in the Senate and the opposition party controls theHouse.During the 118th Congress,which will last for two years beginning January 3,2023,bipartisan policy coordination is essential for effective government,howeverdeliberations on the budget and legislation are expected to stall.Repub

191、licans are expected to establish hearings and special committees through the House Administrationoversight function to increase their pursuit of the administration on the withdrawal of U.S.troops from Afghanistan,southern border policy,and the relationship between thepresidents son and Ukrainian com

192、panies,etc.Debt ceiling problem:As of November 2022,outstanding debt was approximately$31.3 trillion,less than$40 billion to the statutory federal debt limit ceiling of approximately$31.4 trillion.The ceiling will be reached in January 2023,and if Congress fails to agree on measures such as raising

193、the debt ceiling or suspending the application of theceiling before the U.S.government runs out of funds,the U.S.Treasury could default on its obligations in the worst-case scenario.Moves toward the 2024 presidential election Democratic Party:President Biden has expressed his willingness to run agai

194、n stating that he will make a decision early next year.If the President does not run again,VicePresident Kamala Harris,Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg,and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are considered the frontrunners.Republican Party:Former President Donald Trump has already announce

195、d his intention to run.His main opponent in the partys primaries is considered to be the right-wingcandidate,Governor Ron DeSantis,who won a major victory in the gubernatorial race in Florida,which is classified as a battleground state.Several other candidates are alsobeing discussed,including forme

196、r Vice President Mike Pence.Foreign/Security Policy Policy toward China:The“National Security Strategy”released by the U.S.government clearly states its opposition to China in various areas,positioning China as“the onlycompetitor that has both the intention to rebuild the international order and the

197、 economic,diplomatic,and technological capabilities to achieve it.Issues of contention includethe outflow of advanced technology,intellectual property rights infringement,and human rights issues.In the House of Representatives,a new Republican-led SpecialCommittee on China is expected to strengthen

198、oversight of government policy toward China and corporate investment in China.Some observers believe that the House willsharpen its policy toward China in a way that reflects the hardline stance of Congress.Ukraine support:Some Republicans are calling for more accountability for U.S.support for Ukra

199、ine APEC:The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)meeting is scheduled to be held in November 2023 with the U.S.as the chairing country.It remains to be seen whetherprogress will be made toward the conclusion of negotiations on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework(IPEF),which is positioned as one o

200、f the pillars of the U.S.Indo-Pacificstrategy announced in February 2022.Energy/Climate Change Policy Inflation Reduction Act:The Inflation Reduction Act,passed in August 2022,included$369 billion over 10 years in the spending budget for energy security and climatechange measures.This will include p

201、roduction and investment in renewable energy,clean hydrogen production,tax credits for personal purchases of eco-cars and eco-friendlyhomes,and the introduction of a surcharge system for methane.However,implementation of some of the budget may be restricted by the Republican Party.FRBs Climate Chang

202、e Program:The Federal Reserve Board(FRB)will conduct a program called the Pilot Scenario Analysis Exercise on Climate-Related Risks during2023,in which six major financial institutions will participate.The goal is to assess financial institutions resilience to various climate scenarios and to enhanc

203、e the ability ofexecutives and firms to measure and manage financial risks related to climate change.Source:By the Marubeni Research Institute from various media reports31Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.75808590951001052019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3

204、圏英國Real GDP Recovery Trajectory(Euro Zone,UK)Sources:European Commission,UK Office for National Statistics（2019Q4=100）Note:Respondents were asked to indicate whether their household economic situation and that of the country as a whole had improved,remained the same,or worsened compared to one year

205、earlier and their forecasts for one year from now.Data are available through December 2022.Source:GfK(graphby the Marubeni Research Institute)Consumer Confidence Index(Germany/UK)50 40 30 20 100102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10英國(improved-worsened,%points)

206、Real GDP in the Eurozone and the UK recovered to pre-Covid levels in 2021,then growth slowed again in 2022.Record high prices weighed heavy in this.Business confidence is deteriorating in both the manufacturing and service sectors.Domestic and foreign demand is slowing due to high inflation and acco

207、mpanying rapidmonetary tightening.Consumer confidence has declined significantly with strong concerns that consumer spending will remain sluggish for some time.In particular,the U.K.and Germany may beheaded for recessions(real GDP contracting for two consecutive quarters)in he first half of 2023.How

208、ever,the recessions should not be as deep as past recessions.(50 is rough estimate between boom and bust)Note:Purchasing managers of companies were asked to indicate their business conditions for the month in question by selecting improved,unchanged,or worsened compared to the previous month,and the

209、 results were converted into an index.Data are available through December 2022.The data for the same month are preliminary figures.Source:Refinitiv102030405060702020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10圏(製造)圏()英國(製造)英國()Improvedworsened Business Confidence(PMI Euro

210、Zone,UK)3-1.Europe:Main Economic Indicators,Recovery in Demand From Resumed Economic Activity After the Covid Crisis Subsides/A“Shallow and Short Recession in 2023?Euro ZoneUKEuro Zone(manufacturing)Euro Zone(services)UK(manufacturing)UK(services)GermanyUK32Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.E

211、nergy Prices(Euro Zone,UK)（1/2020=100,indexed）8010012014016018020004008001,2001,6002,0002,4002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7天然（/TTF）卸電力（/EPEX）卸電力（英國/N2EX）（圏、右軸）（英國、右軸）Note:Natural gas and gasoline prices are for the first week of each month.Wholesale electricity is the spot price(baseload)at th

212、e beginning of the month.Original units are in euros/MWh for natural gas and electricity,and local currency for gasoline,through December 2022.Sources:Refinitiv,CEIC(same for left axis)2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7指數食品、酒類、総合指數November forecast Consume

213、r Price Inflation(UK)Note:Price forecasts are as of September and December 2022 by the Bank of England(BOE)Sources:UK Office for National Statistics,BOE(graphby the MarubeniResearch Institute)(YoY,%,contributionin%points)2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.02020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7指數食品、

214、酒類、総合指數Note:Price forecasts are as of September and December 2022 by the European Central Bank(ECB).Source:European Commission(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)December forecastSeptember forecast Consumer Price Inflation(Euro Zone)November:10.1%Inflation has been driven by a sharp rise in en

215、ergy prices that has continued since last year.Inflation has also noticeable in food and a wide range of other goods and services.The European Central Bank(ECB)and the Bank of England(BOE)reduced their policy rate hikes(interest rate hikes)from 0.75%to 0.50%at their December meetings,but also remain

216、 wary of inflationary pressures associated with tight labor supply and demand.Inflation is peaking due to the utility rate hike freeze and economic downturn but is still expected to be well above the 2%target at the end of 2023,so interest rates may continue to rise,at least in the first half of the

217、 year.centralbankstarget 2%3-2.Europe:Energy Prices and Inflation TrendInflation Peaking but May Remain Well Above Central Bank Targets During 2023natural gas(Netherlands TTF)wholesale electricity(Germany EPEX)wholesale electricity(UK N2EX)gasoline(Euro Zone,right axis)gasoline(UK(right axis)energyc

218、ore indexfood,liquor,tobaccocomposite indexAugust forecastcentralbankstarget 2%energycore indexfood,liquor,tobaccocomposite indexNovember 10.7%(YoY,%,contributionin%points)33Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Sources:European Commission,Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance,IMF(graph by the

219、MarubeniResearch Institute)100110120130140150160 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.00.02.04.06.08.010.02019202020212022202320242025実績前政権政権(fiscal balancevs GDP,%)(outstanding fiscal debt vs GDP,%)Italys Fiscal Outlook0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.02010/12012/12014/12016/12018/12020/12022/1(%)Major European Countri

220、es Long-Term Interest Rates(yield gaps vs Germany)Note:Long-term interest rate is the 10-year Treasury yield.Data as of 12/21/2022.Source:RefinitivItaly,whose government debt is over 150%of GDP,is very aware of its government bonds credit risk as the government bond yield spread versus Germanys rose

221、 sharplyfrom spring 2022 onward following the ECBs monetary tightening and the collapse of the pro-EU Draghi government.Since October,spreads have narrowed slightly as thenew right-wing Meloni government,which took office that month,has emphasized its stance of avoiding confrontation with the EU ove

222、r fiscal management policies.Whilestrong concern over Italys fiscal situation has receded for the moment,caution is advised against the risk that quantitative tightening,which begins in March 2023,could leadto widening yield spreads.0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/11(%)(from

223、1/2010)(from 1/202)2forecastoutstandingdebt(right axis)3-3.Europe:Southern Europe Fiscal ConcernsItalys MeloniAdministration Plans to Expand Budget Deficit,but Avoids Full Confrontation With the EUFranceItalySpainPortugalactualDraghi gvt.Meloni gvt.fiscal balance(left axis)actualDraghi gvt.Meloni gv

224、t.34Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.PointPossible Scenarios/PlansNormalize Natural GasShortage MeasuresAlthough reduced supply of Russian natural gas has raised concerns over gasshortages in the EU,gas supply disruptions during the winter months are likely to beavoided.However,measures to s

225、tem gas shortages will continue in 2023.Also,efforts to reduce electricity and gas consumption(energy conservation)may becomethe norm.In addition,increased LNG procurement continues,with a number offloating storage and regasification units(FSRUs)now coming on-line.As such,theglobalLNG market will re

226、main tight for the time being.Expand Use of Coal-Fired and NuclearPowerPlants/Accelerate Decarbonization InvestmentThe trend of expanding the use of coal-fired power generation will continue for thenext several years as the supply-demand balance for electricity remains tight.However,this move back t

227、o fossil fuels is a short-term measure with the shift towarddecarbonization irreversible in the mid to long-term.Some countries are nowpromoting nuclear power plants.Also,the EUs aggressive subsidy policy to expandgreen investment(renewable energy,hydrogen,ammonia,etc.)should also bewatched closely.

228、The EU plans to use public funds for permanent gas infrastructure(LNG receiving terminals and pipelines)due to uncertainty over the private sectorswillingnessto investin such infrastructure.EU Electric Power/Gas Market ReformThe European Commission announced an electricity market reform proposal tod

229、ecouple natural gas procurement prices from wholesale electricity market prices,etc.(Q1).TTF natural gas price caps(from February)and a new price index are also inthe processof beingmade.EU DecarbonizationPolicy Trends Introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism begins in October 2023(tes

230、t).Only requiredto report the amountof carbonin eligibleimportsuntil 2026.The Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS)is being extended to maritime and roadtransport and buildings(applied in stages,then transition to the new ETS in a fewyears)The European Commission has proposed international freight and passe

231、ngertransportgreeninglegislation-Includesexpandingrail transport,etc.(Q2)European Commission also proposed legislation to establish a European hydrogenbank-Guarantees for the purchase of green hydrogen,support for the creation of amarket,etc.(Q3)European Commission proposed legislation on the treatm

232、ent of ICE vehicles bycompanies-Tighteningregulationson leasingof ICE vehicles(Q3)Sources:European Commission,various media reports(table by the Marubeni Research Institute)PointPossible Scenario/PlansNon-Decarbonization EU PolicyDevelopments Critical raw materials bill proposed by the European Comm

233、ission-Strengthening intra-regionalsupplyof raw materials(Q1)EuropeanCommissionproposedlegislationon the introductionof a digital euro(Q2)European Commission proposed legislation on a new income taxation framework(BEFIT)-Introducesa standardintra-regionalmethodfor calculatingthe taxablebase(Q3)Will

234、adopt a draft directive on mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence bythe end of the yearDe-Russification Accelerates/Dependence on China a ChallengeWhile the de-Russification of its dependence on Russian energy is accelerating,dependenceon China continues to be an issue with respect t

235、o the energy technology needed to do so(e.g.,solar panels,wind turbines,batteries).According to a survey commissioned by theGerman government,China is a major supplierof 23 out of 46 criticalraw materials.European Economy Deterioration/Interest Rate Hike HaltThe economy may enter a recession in the

236、first half of 2023,particularly in the U.K.andGermany.Consumer price inflation is peaking but is still expected to be well above the 2%target at the end of 2023,so interest rates may continue to rise at least until the first half of thenext year.EU Fiscal Discipline Rule FlexibilityReform of the reg

237、ions common fiscal discipline rules is in full swing.In November 2022,theEuropean Commission announced it would be more flexible in terms of fiscal discipline,policyand Italys Meloni government,whose debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 150%,has thus shown amore positive attitude toward discipline compliance,w

238、hich,in the short term,has reducedmarket concerns about debt risk in southern Europe.The European Commissions proposedrule reforms,which emphasize mid to long-term debt reduction,will not discourage investmentin green and other areas though,so there are concerns that it will only postpone the proble

239、m,as uncertainty remains over the path to fiscal consolidation and the implementation of plans inItaly and other countrieswhere frequentchangesof governmentare taking place.Southern EuropeElectionsSpain generalelection(May):Currently,the oppositionparty is slightlyahead in the polls.Greece general e

240、lection(July):Support for the ruling center-right party is stable,but there isuncertaintyabout whether it will be able to maintainits single-partymajority.Reskilling/UpskillingThe EU has designated 2023 as the Year of Skills.The goal is to have 80%of all adultsmasterbasic digitalskillsby 2030.3-4.Eu

241、rope:2023 Major Economic/Industry Focal PointsEnergy Transition Makes Steady Progress,but“Balancing the Scrapping”of Both“Dependence on Russia and“Dependence on China”a Challenge35Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.4-1.China:Main Economic IndicatorsEconomy Picking-Up but Lacking Strength36Due

242、to the strict zero-Covid policy and the sluggish housing market,the governments economic growth target(around+5.5%)was significantly missed in 2022 at just over+3%.The zero-Covid policy,which has been in place for almost three years,has finally been substantially eased.The government continues suppr

243、ession of the housing bubble,but supported by various stimulus and other economic measures,the economy is expected to pick up to the mid-4%range in 2023-2024 but will lack strength Real GDP Growth Rate 80 40040801202021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/11発電量自動車製造臺數新

244、設住宅著工面積投資額 Main Economic IndicatorsSource:China National Bureau of Statistics(as of 11/2022)(YoY,%)forecast 10 5051015202019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 2022 2023 2024(quarterly)(yearly)(YoY,%)30 20 100102030402019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12

245、020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10社會消費財小売総額固定資産投資鉱工業生産electric power generationauto productionnew housing construction(total area)infrastructure investmentsocial consumer good retail salesfixed asset investmentindustrial production(YoY,%)Source:China National Bureau

246、 of Statistics(as of 11/2022)Source:China National Bureau of Statistics Forecast:Marubeni Research InstituteMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.4-2.China:Inflation Trend and Monetary PolicyPrice Increases Relatively Moderate,Fears of Capital Outflows Hinder Further EasingPrice rises have been r

247、elatively moderate,influenced by low dependence on external natural resources/raw materials and food products,increased domestic resourceproduction,and difficulties in shifting increased manufacturing costs to consumer goods.Monetary easing has been implemented off and on since mid-2021 to support t

248、he economy.However,the scope for easing may be limited due to strong concerns overcapital outflows against the backdrop of accelerated monetary tightening in the U.S.and Europe.37 Deposit Reserve Ratio/LPRNote:Deposit reserve ratio:The ratio at which commercial banks deposit a certain percentage of

249、their deposits in cash with the central bank for deposit protection purposes.LPR(loan prime rate):Most preferential lending rate,the rate used by commercial banks for lending to prime customers Source:Peoples Bank of China(as of 12/2022)（%）Consumer Price Index(YoY,%)Degree of External Dependence2 70

250、 43 20 9 7 3 80 18 0102030405060708090石炭原油天然全體小麥大豆穀物全體 2 1012345672019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7交通通信食品他CPICPI246810122019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7deposit reserve ratio5-year LPRLPR1年物record lowstransportation/telecomfoodotherCPIcore CPISource:China National Burea

251、u of Statistics(as of 11/2022)(import volume/domestic consumption external dependence,%)coal crude oilnatural gasenergy-allcornwheatricesoybeansgrain-allSources:China National Bureau of Statistics,WIND Resources:2020,standardcoal equivalent Grain:Based on quantityMarubeni Corporation All Rights Rese

252、rved.The Chinese government has not taken any major fiscal or monetary measures since the beginning of the Covid pandemic,and the current rampant Covid infection situationwill act as a drag on any economic stimulus measures taken.Fiscal reserves:Although fiscal discipline has been emphasized,the ret

253、irement of baby boomers,in addition to declining tax revenues due to the decrease in the working-age population,tends to put pressure on public finances.Financial sustainability:The scale of credit to the private sector is prominent in emerging countries.Loan balances are expanding again,especially

254、bank lending.Sources:BIS,IMF Private Non-Financial Corporate Sector Outstanding Credit(2021)(vs GDP,%)(per capita GDP,$)Outstanding Government Debt(vs GDP,%)Source:IMF4-3.China:Monetary and Fiscal PolicyStance at Odds With Taking Large-Scale Stimulus Measures0501001502002503002001 2003 2005 2007 200

255、9 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021日本米國中國050100150200250300350400450500020,00040,00060,00080,000MalaysiaThailandMexicoIndonesiaIndiaSouth AfricaRussiaTurkeyArgentinaBrazilGreeceSpainItalyKoreaUKFranceJapanHong KongSingaporeU.S.AustraliaGermanyChina20202019202138JapanIndiaU.S.ChinaBrazilRussia4-4.China:F

256、ocal PointsPresident Xi Starts 3rdTerm/Taking an Internal or External Path?The Communist Partys main goal is to become a strong country by the middle of the 21st century“:It involves 2 stages,one,becoming a middle power by 2035 and then a developed country by 2050.The next five years are an importan

257、t kick-off periodtoward this goal.Emphasis on economic development.Reform,opening-up and marketization to continue.(With the U.S.-China confrontation in mind)Urge self-reliance in advanced technology and development of highly skilled human resources.From controlling the total amount of energy to reg

258、ulating the total amount of carbon emissions.Zero Covid policy:eased.Housing bubble control measures:maintained.Measure to reduce inequality(common prosperity):maintained Increasing confidence in the Chineseization of Marxism.Reinforcing ideology by putting Chinese-style modernization(Chinas unique

259、development model)at the forefront.Enhancing national security capabilities.Defend the security of the regime,institutions,and ideology at all costs.Maintain multi-directional diplomacy and expand international influence.Keep advancing the Belt and Road Initiative.Become actively involved in the ref

260、orm and building of global governance.Taiwan is the last piece of the”Great Revival of the Chinese Nation”.Unification with Taiwan is up to the Chinese people to decide.China will never renounce the right to use force over Taiwan astatement aimed at interference by external forces and Taiwan indepen

261、dence advocates(The statement itself has often been used in the past,but this is the first time it has been mentioned at a party congress).Direction of Domestic/Foreign Policy Over the Next 5-Years(Party Congress Report)Source:Report from the Opening of the 20thCommunist Party Congress(10/2022)(tabl

262、e by the Marubeni Research Institute)Party Congress Report:Number of Times These Words UsedThe new party leadership(members)led by President Xi is notable for flaunting Chinese-style modernization and the heavy use of hardliners in foreign affairs(wolfwarriors),so there are concerns that it will int

263、ensify confrontation with the West.On the economic front,the highest priority is being placed on economic development,and after the party congress the zero-Covid policy was drastically eased.It is alsohurrying to leverage the housing market.On the other hand,there are some major private companies an

264、d foreign companies who are wary of measures to correct social disparities(e.g.,increasing the burden onlarge companies)and over-regulation of data.Representative Expressions19th20thDevelopment232239Innovation5955Reform7051Common prosperity68Self-reliance06Private information security01National secu

265、rity1829Ideology810Chinese-style011FPInfluence(power)47Belt and Road Initiative52Great Revival of the Chinese Nation2716Taiwan913External force04Use of force0139AimEconomyPoliticsForeign PolicyTaiwanEconomyPoliticsTaiwanSource:19thand 20thCommunist Party Congress Reports(full text,32,000 characters

266、each)(table by the Marubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Although exports are expected to weaken due to the slowdown in overseas economies,domestic demand,including consumer spending and capital investment,is likely tocontinue t

267、o recover as economic activities normalize.In the manufacturing sector,easing supply chain constraints and a weaker yen will provide a tailwind for exports,while a slowdown in overseas economies and higher costswill put downward pressure on earnings.The service sector is predicted to recover due to

268、the governments domestic travel support and a significant easing of entry and border measures,but there are downsiderisks such as a mass respreading of Covid infections.5-1.Japan:Main Economic IndicatorsEconomic Recovery Expected to Continue On Back of Domestic Demand,Though Foreign Demand Likely to

269、 Weaken40Real GDP 40 30 20 1001020302019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3202220232024(seasonally adjusted YoY annualized,%)(quarterly)(yearly)forecast202530354045505560652020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10(5

270、0 is a rough estimate in the difference between boom and bust）worsenedNote Purchasing managers of companies were asked to indicate their business conditions for the month in question by selecting improved,unchanged,or worsened compared to the previous month.The results were converted into an index.T

271、he results are converted into an index.Source:HIS Markit(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Business Confidence(PMI)(PMI)Nov.Dposite48.950.0manufacturing49.048.8services50.351.775808590951001051102019平均2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3実質GDP個人消費設備投資輸出(2019 avera

272、ge=100)Major Demand Items Recovery PaceSource:Japan Cabinet Office(forecast/graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)real GDPpersonal consumptioncapital investmentexportsSource:Japan Cabinet Office(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)improvedMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Japans infla

273、tion has remained relatively low compared to the higher inflation seen in the U.S.and Europe.Prices have risen mainly in energy and food against a backdropof higher resource prices and a weak yen.These prices are expected to fall in 2023 though,due to Japanese government measures to curb energy pric

274、es and the fact that the rebound in prices had already begunfrom more than a year before.Real wages remain in negative territory due to rising prices.The question is now how far companies can go in raising wages in response to high prices.5-2.Japan:Inflation TrendEnergy/Food Prices Central to Inflat

275、ion,Plus Real Wages Have Declined41 1.5 1.0 0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102022年度2023年度2024年度総合CPICPI（除生鮮食品）CPI（除生鮮食品）日銀見通（CPI）Core CPI excluding specialfactors(mobile telecom fees)Consumer PricesNote:The fiscal year forecast

276、includes the core CPI forecast from the Bank of Japans Outlook Report.Sources:Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,BOJ(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)(YoY,%)BOJs 2%price stability target(inflation)5 4 3 2 1012342020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/4

277、2022/72022/10現金給與総額（名目）実質賃金total cash payrolls(nominal)total payouts(real)Composite CPI(degree of contribution)2.0 1.00.01.02.03.04.02020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10生鮮食品生鮮食品除食料電気代代代攜帯電話宿泊料他総合(YoY,contribution,%)Source:Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and

278、Communications,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Total Cash Payrollscomposite CPIcore CPI(excluding fresh food)core core CPI(excluding fresh food/energy)BOJ forecast(core CPI)fiscalfresh foodelectricitygasolinelodgingcompositefresh food(excluding foodstuff)gascell phone feesother(YoY,%)Sourc

279、e:Japan Ministry of Health,Labor and Welfare,(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.At the BOJs December monetary policy meeting the allowable range of fluctuations in long-term interest rates was increased(currently targeted at around 0%)from about0.25%to

280、 around 0.5%,while its framework for long-term/short-term interest rate operations(yield curve control:YCC)was maintained.The market interpreted this as asubstantial move on interest rates(the BOJ has since reaffirmed its easy monetary policy).In addition,the Bank of Japans administration of long an

281、d short-term interest rates attention is focused on the next governors appointment,which will take place on April2023 and the possibility of a policy shift under the new governor.5-3.Japan:Monetary and Fiscal PolicysAll Eyes on Appointment of BOJ Governor Kurodas Successor in April 2023 and Possible

282、 Policy Revisions 42 BOJ Policy Meeting Decisions(12/2022)Main Pointsnegative interest rate policyno changeYCC long-term interest rate allowable fluctuation range(was targeted at around 0%)raised from 0.25%to 0.5bond purchasesnicreased from 7.3 trillion amonth to about 9 trillionYCC operationsconduc

283、ted each year as neededasset purchase policy(ETFs,J-REITs,CP and corporate bonds,etc.)no changeforward guidance(future policy)no changeSource:BOJ(table by the Marubeni Research Institute)0.100.150.200.250.300.3505001,0001,5002,0002,5002022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/11(billion)

284、指値落札額10年債利回(%)Source:BOJ(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)BOJ bond purchases10-year bond yield Supply/Demand Gap604020020402014Q12014Q42015Q32016Q22017Q12017Q42018Q32019Q22020Q12020Q42021Q32022Q2Note:Supply-Demand Gap=(Actual GDP-Potential GDP)/Potential GDPSource:Japan Cabinet Office(graph

285、by the Marubeni Research Institute)15.2 trillion(2022 Q3)(annualized,trillion)demand supply(supply shortage)supply demand(demand shortage)BOJs Bond Yield Curve Control OperationsMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Pent-up demand is expected to be unleashed,mainly for travel and eating out,but o

286、verall consumer confidence is declining,especially among low-income consumers,dueto high prices.Capital investment,which had been on the back burner during the Covid pandemic,is expected to continue to recover on the back of strong corporate earnings.High costsand a downturn in overseas economies wi

287、ll act as a weight on the market though.Resumption of inbound travel and easing of supply chain constraints are positive factors,but slowdowns in overseas economies,including Europe,the U.S.,and China,willbe a downside factor.5-4.Japan:Focal Points Can the Slow Economic Recovery from the Covid Crisi

288、s be Reversed Even as Overseas Economies Decelerate?43Note:All industries except for finance and insurance.Seasonally adjusted.Source:Japan Finance Ministry(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Real Exports Capital Investment0510152025301011121314152019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q

289、42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3経常利益（右軸）設備投資（含）(trillion)Personal Consumption7080901001101201301402019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10耐久財非耐久財消費活動指數pre-Covid levels(2019 average)501001502002019/012019/042019/072019/102020/0120

290、20/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/10中國NIEsASEAN等米國実質輸出durablesnon-durablesservicesconsumer activity index(2015=100,seasonally adjustedordinary profits(right axis)capital investment(software included)(trillion)Source:BOJ(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)

291、ChinaNIEs/ASEANU.S.EUreal exports(2015=100,seasonally adjustedSource:BOJ(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.010203040020406080100201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021石油等石炭天然原子力水力太陽光(fiscal year)Domestic38%U.S.23%Canada11%Europe9%Brazil3%Other

292、16%Note:Percent supplied per person in Japan in fiscal 2021.Source:Japan Ministry of Agriculture,Forestry and Fisheries(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)Strengthening economic security is tan urgent issue against the backdrop of potential U.S.-China conflict.Reinforcement of the domestic sup

293、ply system,especially in termsof specific high tech-related critical materials and intermediates in 11 fields,including semiconductors.As the situation in Ukraine becomes more protracted,energy supply concerns over LNG are becoming more serious.In addition to requests to conserve energy,thegovernmen

294、t is planning to make maximum use of nuclear power plants and renewable energy.The risk of price hikes in feed grains(and other foodstuff)and lumber,which are highly dependent on imports,have become apparent.As such,serious discussions and areview of the BasicAct on Food,Agriculture,and RuralAreas h

295、ave begun.5-4.Japan:Focal Points U.S.-China Confrontation and Ukrainian Situation Have Triggered a Domestic Security Rethinking44 Japans Food Supply Semiconductor IC(integrated circuit)Market Share Electric Power Sources(power generation)55 633601020304050607090950051020米國歐州日本(%)Source:IC Insights(g

296、raph by the Marubeni Research Institute)U.S.AsiaEuropeJapan(year)crude oil,etc.nuclear powercoalhydro powernatural gassolar powerzero emissions ratio(right axis)Source:Japan Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)(%)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.6-

297、1.ASEAN:Main Economic IndicatorsRelatively Favorable Economic/Inflation Trends,but Slowdown in Overseas Economies Weighing on Outlook Main Economic IndicatorsSources:CEIC,RefinitivNote:Indicators with no published quarterly or annual data are averages of monthly data;PMI for ASEAN covers the above 6

298、 countries+MyanmarCalendarQuarterlyMonthlyCountryEconomic Indicator2020202121Q422Q122Q222Q37891011IndonesiaReal GDP Growth Rate(YoY,%)2.13.75.05.05.45.7Business Confidence(manufacturing PMI)44.751.754.952.151.052.251.351.753.751.850.3Exports(YoY,%)2.741.99.51.713.44.332.029.920.212.3Consumer Price I

299、ndex(YoY,%)2.01.61.82.33.85.24.94.76.05.75.4ThailandReal GDP Growth Rate(YoY,%)6.21.51.82.32.54.5Business Confidence(manufacturing PMI)47.149.250.352.051.553.952.453.755.751.651.1Exports(YoY,%)5.917.46.22.32.74.54.37.57.84.4Consumer Price Index(YoY,%)0.81.22.44.76.57.37.67.96.46.05.5PhilippinesReal

300、GDP Growth Rate(YoY,%)9.55.77.88.27.57.6Business Confidence(manufacturing PMI)46.650.851.552.054.151.650.851.252.952.652.7Exports(YoY,%)8.114.53.82.41.63.64.12.07.0Consumer Price Index(YoY,%)2.43.93.63.45.56.56.46.36.97.78.0SingaporeReal GDP Growth Rate(YoY,%)4.17.66.13.94.54.1Business Confidence(ma

301、nufacturing PMI)48.850.850.750.350.350.050.150.049.949.749.8Exports(YoY,%)3.19.36.83.30.95.211.18.59.61.3Consumer Price Index(YoY,%)0.22.33.74.65.97.37.07.57.56.7MalaysiaReal GDP Growth Rate(YoY,%)5.53.13.65.08.914.2Business Confidence(manufacturing PMI)47.348.452.450.350.750.050.650.349.148.747.9Ex

302、ports(YoY,%)1.126.115.91.914.36.538.048.130.115.0Consumer Price Index(YoY,%)1.12.53.22.22.84.54.44.74.54.0VietnamReal GDP Growth Rate(YoY,%)2.92.65.25.17.813.7Business Confidence(manufacturing PMI)47.249.252.353.253.552.151.252.752.550.647.4Exports(YoY,%)6.918.94.09.53.58.59.927.89.95.2Consumer Pric

303、e Index(YoY,%)1.81.91.93.03.33.12.93.94.34.4ASEANBusiness Confidence(manufacturing PMI)45.550.252.952.352.452.752.252.353.551.650.745Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.6-2.ASEAN:InflationIn General Inflation Levels are Relatively Moderate,bur Remain Serious for a Few CountriesInflation in ASEA

304、Ns major countries has remained above the monetary authorities target range(generally set within 14%)but has been relatively low compared to otherregions.On the other hand,Myanmar and Laos are experiencing more serious inflation problems due to the depreciation of their currencies which has pushed u

305、p importprices.Inflation is expected to generally slow in 2023 due to milder resource and energy prices and reduced stimulus measures.Source:CEIC Consumer Price Index(CPI)Consumer Price Index(CPI)Contribution 50510152025303540452021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10IndonesiaSingaporeMala

306、ysiaMyanmar LaosThailandPhilippinesVietnamCambodia Brunei(YoY,%)010203040食料他*fuel subsidyNote 1:Energy for Laos and Myanmar includes all housing-related items.Vietnams breakdown is food only.Myanmar is only for 6/2022.Data for Cambodia is from the city of Phnom Penh.Note 2:Indonesias fuel subsidy wi

307、ll be partially reduced in 9/2022.Malaysias fuel subsidy will be reviewed in fiscal 2023.Source:Various media reports(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)(YoY,contribution,%,as of 9/2022)*fuel subsidy*oil price controls,value-added tax reductionIndonesiaThailandSingaporePhilippines MalaysiaViet

308、namMyanmarCambodiaLaosBruneienergy food other46Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.6-3.ASEAN:Monetary and Fiscal PolicyU.S.Interest Rate Hike Direction and ASEAN Countries Domestic EconomiesThe central banks of various ASEAN countries are raising interest rates in response to monetary tightenin

309、g in the U.S.and high domestic inflation.Some central banks mayslow their hikes in light of a reduction in the range of interest rate hikes in the U.S.Foreign exchange reserves in majorASEAN countries are generally at safe levels on a short-term external debt ratio basis,however,the reserves have be

310、en shrinking.In countries that made large fiscal outlays in response to the Covid crisis,etc.,the level of disbursements is expected to remain above pre-Covid levels for the time being,although spending is likely to be reduced in the future.Policy Interest Rate Fiscal Balance(vs GDP,%)Foreign Exchan

311、ge Reserves(vs short-term external debt)2.73.27.81.14.02.42.66.81.03.801234567892021/12末2022/9末Note:Short-term external debt as of end-9/2022 is actually as of end-6/2022.Foreign exchange reserves are at the end of 6/2022 and debt at the end of 2020 for Vietnam only.Sources:IMF,World Bank,Refinitiv(

312、graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)(times)0102030402010-19平均2020202120222023Source IMFNote;2022/2023 are IMF forecastsfiscaltighteningtrendfiscalloosening trendNote:JP Morgans U.S.policy interest rate forecast(end-11/2022)was 4.25-4.50%for the end of 2022 and 4.75-5.00%for the end of 2023.Sour

313、ces:CEIC,JP Morgan(graph by the Marubeni Research Institute)47IndonesiaThailandPhilippines MalaysiaVietnamend 12/2021end 9/2022BruneiLaos MalaysiaVietnamIndonesiaMyanmarThailandSingaporeCambodiaPhilippinesaverage0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/920

314、20/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/92022/122023/32023/62023/9(%)forecast4.755.00%IndonesiaThailandPhilippines MalaysiaVietnamMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.6-4.ASEAN:Focal PointsPolitical/Economic Developments in China Will Have a Significant Impact onASEAN Economies FutureBusi

315、ness confidence in the manufacturing sector has gradually declined due to economic deterioration in overseas economies(especially in China)and monetary tighteningby central banks in variousASEAN countries.Tourist numbers are picking up steadily as border/entry measures are eased.The challenge is to

316、recover Chinese tourist numbers,which have been sluggish due to thezero-Covid policy.The relocation of production from China to Vietnam has been growing owing to the escalation of U.S.-China friction and the zero-Covid policy,etc.Business Confidence(manufacturing PMI)Source:CEIC,(graph by the Marube

317、ni Research Institute)Source:Various media reports Number of Foreigners Entering Country05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002019/22019/52019/82019/112020/22020/52020/82020/112021/22021/52021/82021/112022/22022/52022/82022/11(1,000 persons)25303540455055602020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/4

318、2021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10Note:The index is calculated by having production managers select from the three options of improved,unchanged,or worsened for the business conditions during the month compared to the previous month.Source:Refinitiv Shift of Production Bases from China to Vietna

319、mCompanyDetailsAppleIntends to utilize more suppliers in Vietnam.Suppliers suchas Hon Hai are also increasing their production capacity inVietnam.Hon HaiPlans to establish a manufacturing subsidiary in thenorthern province of Bac Giang to produce iPads andMacBooks for Apple.SamsungElectronicsCurrent

320、ly constructing the largest R&D center in SoutheastAsia in Hanoi.GoogleThe company plans to move its smartphone manufacturingbase from China to Vietnam.Although production in Chinawill be maintained for the time being,small orders havealready been shifted to Vietnam on a trial basis.BoeingOpened fir

321、st representative office in Hanoi in August 2021.Plans to build an aviation-related manufacturing base inVietnam.SharpConsidering the construction of a production base in thesouth to reduce their supply chains dependenceon China.IrisOhyamaSeeking outsourced manufacturing(furniture,etc.)inVietnam and

322、 other countries to diversify productionconcentratedin China.48IndonesiaThailandSingaporeVietnamMalaysiaPhilippines IndonesiaThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesVietnamSingaporeMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Reference Material49Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.In the corporate sector,the PM

323、I,which had been rising throughout 2021 mainly in the U.S.and Europe,has trended downward in 2022 falling below 50,the threshold forimprovement or deterioration in business confidence,across the board as of November 2022.The consumer confidence index,which reflects household sentiment,was alsoweak d

324、uring 2022.In addition to energy and other soaring price concerns due to the crisis in Ukraine,demand is expected to fall as a result of widespread monetarytightening measures.Consumersshort-term inflation expectations rose in all countries.While in the U.S.there are signs of a drop-off,in Japan and

325、 Europe inflation worries continues to rise,Note:PMI(Purchasing Managers Index)The Purchasing Managers Index is an index of business conditions in which corporate purchasing managers are asked to indicate whether their business conditions improved,remained unchanged,or worsened during the month comp

326、ared to the previous month.The index is calculated by dividing the difference between improvement and deterioration in business confidence at 50.Sources:S&P Global,OECD“Economic Outlook Volume 2022,Issue 2”,NY Federal Reserve Bank,European Central Bank,Bank of Japan(graphs by the Marubeni Research I

327、nstitute)SentimentHousehold/Business Sentiment Declined Through 2022,Consumers Short-Term Inflation Expectations Still High Consumer Sentiment9495969798991001011021032021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/9OECD米國圏(long-termaverage=100)Major Country PMIs40455055606570752021

328、/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/11米國製造業米國業圏総合日本総合 Consumer Inflation Expectations(1-year ahead survey)50U.S.manufacturingEuro Zone compositeU.S.servicesJapan compositeOECDU.S.Euro Zone01020304050607080901002020/102021/102022/10Euro Zone01020304050607080901002020/1

329、02021/102022/10Japan下落変化上昇不明0204060801002020/102021/102022/10U.S.0%未満01%12%23%34%4%以上（%）(%)0%4%（%）decreaseincreaseunchangedunknownMarubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.51While demand for labor increased in many major countries,with the job openings rate(number of job openings/number of labor part

330、icipants,i.e.,job seekers)exceedingpre-Covid levels,labor supply was tight and unemployment rates fell to their lowest levels in 20 years.Nominal wages(compensation per employee)have beenincreasing due to the supply-demand imbalance which may lead to inflationary pressures as companies pass on some

331、of the higher employment costs to prices for goodsand services.On the other hand,on the workers side the pace of wage growth has not kept pace with high inflation so real purchasing power has fallen sharply.Source:OECD,”Economic Outlook Volume 2022 Issue 2”Major Country Job Openings and Unemployment

332、 RatesLabor Market SituationIn Many Major Economies Labor Supply/Demand to Remain Tight for Some Time,Wages Rising but Real Purchasing Power Declining Major Countries Real Wages(as of 3Q 2022)6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.00.0米國英國(YoY,%)0.05.010.015.020.025.0求人率失業率求人率失業率求人率失業率求人率失業率求人率失業率求人率失業率求人率失業率米國英國豪州2

333、022Q2平均（20112019）job openings rateunemployment ratejob openings rateunemployment ratejob openings rateunemployment ratejob openings rateunemployment rateU.S.UKGermanyjob openings rateunemployment rateAustraliajob openings rateunemployment rateItalyjob openings rateunemployment rateFranceSpain2022 Q2 average(2011-2019)(%)U.S.GermanyUKAustraliaItalyFranceSpain51Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserv