1、 2 Authors:Yvonne Ruf,Markus Baum,Thomas Zorn,Alexandra Menzel,Johannes Rehberger Contact:Yvonne Ruf()FUEL CELLS AND HYDROGEN 2 JOINT UNDERTAKING Contact:FCH 2 JU E-mail:FCH-JUfch.europa.eu FCH 2 JU B-1049 Brussels 3 Fuel Cells Hydrogen Trucks Heavy-Dutys High Performance Green Solution Study Summar

2、y The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the FCH 2 JU.The FCH 2 JU does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study.Neither the FCH 2 JU nor any person acting on the FCH 2 JUs behalf may be he

3、ld responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein.4 Contents Abstract.7 Executive summary.8 Rsum.10 1.Introduction Fuel cell and hydrogen trucks today.12 1.1 State-of-the-art of the technology.13 1.2 Policy and regulatory regime.15 1.3 Existing trial and demonstration

4、 activities.18 2.Market potential for FCH heavy-duty trucks in Europe.21 2.1 Total cost of ownership analysis.23 2.2 Market potential.29 3.Case studies FCH heavy-duty trucks in the transport&logistics ecosystem.33 3.1 Long-haul case studies linked to Use Case I.35 3.2 Medium/long-haul case studies l

5、inked to Use Case II.38 3.3 Regional distribution case studies linked to Use Case III.41 3.4 Findings on FCH application for real-life heavy-duty trucks application.43 4.Recommendations for successful implementation of FCH technology in the heavy-duty truck sector.47 4.1 Barriers to the widespread a

6、doption of FCH in heavy-duty transport.47 4.2 Potential synergies of widespread FCH technology implementation.53 4.3 Recommendations for research and innovation.54 5 Table of figures Figure 1:Comparison of alternative powertrain technologies for heavy-duty trucks.13 Figure 2:Overview of heavy-duty t

7、ruck trial and demonstration activities.15 Figure 3:Heavy-duty road freight decarbonisation trajectory.16 Figure 4:Overview of key fuel cell hydrogen heavy-duty truck trial and demonstration projects.19 Figure 5:Use case characteristics.22 Figure 6:Main on-board hydrogen storage technologies.23 Figu

8、re 7:Schematic methodology of TCO modelling.25 Figure 8:TCO model structure.25 Figure 9:TCO assessment for Use Case I kEUR/Truck;1st&2nd life.27 Figure 10:TCO assessment for Use Case II kEUR/Truck;1st&2nd life.27 Figure 11:TCO assessment for Use Case III kEUR/Truck;1st&2nd life.28 Figure 12:European

9、 market potential of FCEV#of truck sales,rounded Base scenario.29 Figure 13:Market uptake scenarios%of FCEV/BEV uptake.31 Figure 14:European market potential of FCEV#of truck sales Market segments 31 Figure 15:Overview of geographical distribution of case studies in Europe.34 Figure 16:Case studies

10、for Use Case I Long haul routes with 40 t trucks.36 Figure 17:Case studies for Use Case II Medium/long haul routes with 27 t trucks.38 Figure 18:Case studies for Use Case III Regional distribution routes with 18 t trucks.41 Figure 19:Overview of main findings on real-life business cases for FCH tech

11、nology.44 Figure 20:Overview of barriers for FCH heavy-duty trucks and priority for short-term R&I.48 Figure 21:Barriers to FCH technology in the heavy-duty truck ecosystem.52 Figure 22:Overview of short-term R&I projects to address high-priority barriers.55 Figure 23:Overview of concrete policy rec

12、ommendations.57 6 List of abbreviations BEV Battery Electric Vehicles CAPEX Capital Expenditures CO2 Carbon Dioxide EU European Union FCH Fuel Cells and Hydrogen FCH JU Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking GHG Greenhouse Gases GVW Gross Vehicle Weight H2 Hydrogen HDT Heavy-Duty Truck HRS Hydrog

13、en Refuelling Station NOx Nitrogen Oxides OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer OPEX Operating Expenditures R&I Research and Innovation RCS Regulation,Codes and Standards TCO Total Cost of Ownership 7 Abstract Fuel cell and hydrogen(FCH)technology is a very promising zero-emission powertrain solution

14、for the heavy-duty trucking industry.The FCH 2 JU subcontracted this study to analyse the state-of-the-art of the technology,its surrounding policy and regulatory regime,ongoing trial and demonstrations projects,and its total cost of ownership and market potential.Furthermore,specific case studies a

15、nd industry experts identified remaining technological and non-technological barriers for FCH technology in different trucking use cases.The study projects a potential fuel cell trucks sales share of approx.17%of new trucks sold in 2030 based on a strong technology cost-reduction trajectory.With sca

16、led-up production of FCH trucks and hydrogen offered below 6 EUR/kg,FCH heavy-duty trucks(FCH HDT)provide the operational performance most comparable to diesel trucks regarding daily range,refuelling time,payload capacity and TCO.Nine case studies were developed as first tangible business opportunit

17、y blueprints for the industry.They also provide a view on current limitations of real-life operations.In conclusion,22 barriers have been identified that,successfully tackled,will unlock the full commercial potential of FCH HDT for the trucking and logistics industry.The study proposes tailored R&I

18、projects and policy recommendations that address such remaining barriers in the short-term.8 Executive summary In line with the EU Green Deal and its target to reach carbon neutrality by 2050,Europe is set to decarbonise its transport and mobility industry.EU legislation is already pushing for stric

19、ter emission and pollution standards to achieve a necessary 90%reduction of emissions by 2050.While being a backbone of the European economy,the road freight sector is also responsible for a significant amount of CO2 emissions.Reducing the carbon footprint of heavy-duty trucking is therefore key to

20、achieving the EUs ambitious climate protection targets.The transition to zero-and low-emission vehicles based on alternative powertrain solutions,such as fuel cell and hydrogen(FCH)or battery-electric,is the main lever for meeting stricter emission standards.The study provides a comparison of altern

21、ative powertrain technologies for heavy-duty trucks(HDT),analysis the state-of-the-art of the technology and develops a total cost of ownership analysis(TCO).The comparison showed that FCH applications present a very promising zero-emission alternative.Due to their high operational flexibility and r

22、elatively short refuelling time,FCH HDT are particularly suited for long-haul operations.From a TCO perspective,FCH HDT can become cost-competitive by 2027 if production volumes are ramped up swiftly,as shown in a comparison of FCH trucks with conventional diesel and other alternative powertrains.Pr

23、econditions are(i)scaled-up production of FCH trucks and that(ii)hydrogen is offered below 6 EUR/kg.At this scale,the study projects a potential FCH sales share of approximately 17%of new trucks sold in 2030 in a base scenario(59,500 trucks).If achieved,the zero-emission FCH HDT provide the operatio

24、nal performance most comparable to diesel trucks regarding daily range,refuelling time and payload capacity at a better TCO than the incumbent technology from 2027 onwards.On the short-term a cost premium of up to 22%for FCH trucks over diesel trucks is expected.The commercialisation of FCH technolo

25、gy for the HDT industry is still at an early stage and first truck products are just becoming available on the market.Today,low prototype production volumes result in relatively high production costs of both vehicles and hydrogen(H2).In particular the powertrain(fuel cell module and tank system;CAPE

26、X)and energy/fuel(OPEX)are the main cost drivers.Furthermore,H2 refuelling infrastructure needs to be rolled out significantly and synchronised with FCH truck sales.Trial and demonstration activities will play a crucial role in providing real-life data and experience to pave the way for the market u

27、ptake.FCH trucks show substantial market potential at scale as they are one of the most promising zero-emission alternatives for trucking.For this study,the market potential of FCH HD trucks in Europe has been analysed for three use case segments(long-,medium-,short-haul),which account for approxima

28、tely 53%of HDT market sales in Europe and represent up to 70%emissions from the HD segment.For these use cases and three market uptake scenarios(conservative,base,optimistic),the study projects significant market potential for FCH HDT,with annual sales shares ranging between 16 and 51%in 2030.If thi

29、s development can be realised,FCH HD trucks are poised to become a cornerstone for achieving Europes CO2 emission reduction targets by 2050.Industrial-scale production,affordable green hydrogen and the build-up of the associated hydrogen refuelling infrastructure are deemed to be key elements for FC

30、H technology uptake.More importantly,achieving a high sales share of zero-emission solutions in the early 2030s is crucial to phase out the majority of diesel-powered trucks over their lifetime by 2050.However,realising this market potential will depend on providing a financial and regulatory ecosys

31、tem that equally supports all stakeholders:truck operators and logistics users,truck OEMs,technology providers,fuel and infrastructure providers.While subsidies and tax exemptions are important tools for fostering the development of FCH technology for trucks,a key lever to cost competitiveness of ze

32、ro-emission 9 technologies lies in efficient CO2 pricing.Implementation of emission-based road toll systems or exemptions from existing systems are further important instruments that could enable FCH business cases already in the short term.Already today,first business-driven projects are encouragin

33、g signs of a developing market for FCH HDT,e.g.in countries like Switzerland.In order to translate these first ventures into sustainable businesses and to realize their market potential,cost competitiveness on the supply-side and increased demand need to be generated through comparable targeted ince

34、ntive schemes all over Europe.Additionally,the study investigated the three use cases through case studies,in order to include the perspective of truck operators and logistics service providers building on information of real-life routes.In nine specific case studies,the economic and operational ben

35、efits of fuel cell and hydrogen technology within the transport industry were analysed.The case studies serve as tangible business opportunity blueprints while they also hint at remaining limitations as more FCH truck products and a more mature hydrogen supply chain are still to materialise.FCH tech

36、nology in the heavy-duty truck sector still faces several barriers before a commercial roll-out is possible.They are mainly related to the relative novelty of the technology for this application and initial support is needed to unlock its full market and decarbonisation potential.The study identifie

37、d 22 technological and non-technological barriers.None of these barriers are deemed showstoppers for successful commercialisation.Policy adjustments and tailored R&I projects should be implemented to speed up and optimise a large-scale roll-out in the HDT sector in the next years.Four tailored R&I p

38、rojects,with an estimated total budget of EUR 470 million,are suggested to overcome these remaining barriers in the short term.Work should especially be focused on improving technical and economic performance to allow commercial application.Especially standardisation of on-board hydrogen storage bas

39、ed on best lifecycle economics could speed-up FCH truck product development and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure roll-out.In the mid-term,developing this sector could also lead to export opportunities for European industry,as an increasing number of countries in other regions are transitioning to

40、FCH transport and mobility solutions.This would also preserve highly qualified jobs and expertise in Europe.The study shows that fuel cell and hydrogen technologies and applications are pivotal for a carbon-neutral future of the heavy-duty trucking and logistics industry.A concerted political and in

41、dustrial push by a broad coalition of industry and public stakeholders is needed to deliver on this breakthrough moment.By transitioning to FCH heavy-duty trucks in the upcoming years,the trucking industry will embark on a journey towards competitive,clean,quiet and innovative mobility solutions in

42、line with the EUs ambitious climate protection efforts and emission reduction targets.10 Rsum Conformment au Green Deal de lUE et son objectif datteindre la neutralit carbone dici 2050,lEurope est prte dcarboner son secteur des transports et de la mobilit.La lgislation europenne prconise dj des norm

43、es strictes en matire dmissions et de pollution afin de parvenir une rduction ncessaire de 90%des missions dici 2050.Le secteur du transport routier de marchandises,tout en tant un pilier de lconomie europenne,est galement responsable dun volume important dmissions de CO2.Il est donc essentiel de rd

44、uire lempreinte carbone du transport routier lourd pour atteindre les objectifs ambitieux de lUE en matire de protection du climat.Le passage des vhicules missions faibles ou nulles appuys sur des solutions alternatives de propulsion,telles que la pile combustible et lhydrogne(FCH)ou la batterie lec

45、trique,est le principal levier pour respecter des normes dmissions plus strictes.Ltude fournit une comparaison des technologies de propulsion alternatives pour les poids lourds(Heavy Duty Trucks,HDT),analyse ltat de lart de la technologie et dveloppe une analyse du cot total de possession(TCO).La co

46、mparaison a montr que les applications piles combustible(FCH)prsentent une alternative trs prometteuse mission zro.En raison de leur grande flexibilit oprationnelle et de leur temps de ravitaillement relativement court,les HDT FCH sont particulirement adapts aux oprations longue distance.Du point de

47、 vue du cot total de possession,le FCH HDT peut devenir comptitif dici 2027 si les volumes de production augmentent rapidement,comme le montre une comparaison des camions FCH avec le diesel classique et dautres groupes motopropulseurs alternatifs.Les conditions pralables sont(i)la production grande

48、chelle des camions FCH et(ii)loffre dhydrogne en dessous de 6 EUR/kg.cette chelle,ltude prvoit une part potentielle des ventes de camions FCH denviron 17%des nouveaux camions vendus en 2030 dans un scnario de base(59 500 camions).Sils sont raliss,les FCH HDT zro mission offrent les performances opra

49、tionnelles les plus comparables aux camions diesel en ce qui concerne lautonomie journalire,le temps de ravitaillement et la capacit de charge utile,un meilleur cot total de possession que la technologie actuelle partir de 2027.court terme,on sattend une augmentation des cots pouvant aller jusqu 22%

50、pour les camions FCH par rapport aux camions diesel.La commercialisation de la technologie FCH pour lindustrie des HDT nen est qu ses dbuts et les premiers produits pour camions sont tout juste disponibles sur le march.Aujourdhui,les faibles volumes de production de prototypes se traduisent par des

51、cots de production relativement levs,tant pour les vhicules que pour lhydrogne(H2).En particulier,le groupe motopropulseur(module de pile combustible et systme de rservoir;CAPEX)et lnergie/carburant(OPEX)sont les principaux facteurs de cot.En outre,linfrastructure de ravitaillement en H2 doit tre dp

52、loye de manire significative et synchronise avec les ventes de camions FCH.Les activits dessai et de dmonstration joueront un rle crucial en fournissant des donnes et des expriences relles pour ouvrir la voie ladoption par le march.Les camions FCH prsentent un potentiel de march considrable grande c

53、helle,car ils constituent lune des alternatives les plus prometteuses pour un transport routier sans missions.Pour cette tude,le potentiel de march des camions FCH en Europe a t analys pour trois segments de cas dutilisation(long,moyen et court courrier),qui reprsentent environ 53%des ventes de cami

54、ons HD en Europe et jusqu 70%des missions du segment HD.Pour ces cas dutilisation et trois scnarios dadoption par le march(conservateur,de base,optimiste),ltude prvoit un potentiel de march important pour les FCH HDT,avec des parts de ventes annuelles comprises entre 16 et 51%en 2030.Si cette voluti

55、on se concrtise,les camions FCH sont en passe de devenir une pierre angulaire pour atteindre les objectifs europens de rduction des missions de CO2 dici 2050.La production lchelle industrielle,lhydrogne vert un prix abordable et la mise en place de linfrastructure de ravitaillement en hydrogne assoc

56、ie sont considrs comme des lments cls pour ladoption de la technologie FCH.Plus 11 important encore,il est essentiel datteindre une part leve des ventes de solutions missions zro au dbut des annes 2030 pour liminer progressivement la majorit des camions moteur diesel au cours de leur dure de vie dic

57、i 2050.Toutefois,la ralisation de ce potentiel de march dpendra de la mise en place dun cosystme financier et rglementaire qui soutienne de manire gale toutes les parties prenantes:les oprateurs de camions et les utilisateurs de logistique,les quipementiers de camions,les fournisseurs de technologie

58、,les fournisseurs de carburant et dinfrastructures.Si les subventions et les exonrations fiscales sont des outils importants pour favoriser le dveloppement de la technologie FCH pour les camions,un levier cl de la comptitivit des cots des technologies zro mission rside dans une tarification efficace

59、 du CO2.La mise en uvre de systmes de page routier bass sur les missions ou dexemptions des systmes existants est un autre instrument important qui pourrait permettre FCH de parvenir la rentabilit court terme.Aujourdhui dj,les premiers projets dentreprises sont des signes encourageants dun march en

60、dveloppement,par exemple dans des pays comme la Suisse.Afin de traduire ces premires initiatives en entreprises durables et de raliser leur potentiel de march,il est ncessaire de parvenir la comptitivit cot du ct de loffre et une augmentation de la demande grce des systmes dincitation cibls comparab

61、les dans toute lEurope.En outre,ltude a examin les trois cas dutilisation par le biais dtudes de cas,afin dinclure le point de vue des oprateurs de camions et des prestataires de services logistiques en sappuyant sur des informations relatives des itinraires rels.Dans neuf tudes de cas spcifiques,le

62、s avantages conomiques et oprationnels de la technologie des piles combustible et de lhydrogne dans le secteur des transports ont t analyss.Les tudes de cas servent de modles dopportunits commerciales tangibles tout en soulignant les limites qui subsistent,car il reste encore mettre au point davanta

63、ge de produits pour camions FCH et une chane dapprovisionnement en hydrogne plus mature.La technologie FCH dans le secteur des poids lourds se heurte encore plusieurs obstacles avant quun dploiement commercial ne soit possible.Ils sont principalement lis la relative nouveaut de la technologie pour c

64、ette application et un soutien initial est ncessaire pour librer tout son potentiel de march et de dcarbonation.Ltude a identifi 22 obstacles technologiques et non technologiques.Aucun de ces obstacles nest considr comme rdhibitoire pour une commercialisation russie.Des ajustements politiques et des

65、 projets de R&I adapts devraient tre mis en uvre pour acclrer et optimiser le dploiement grande chelle dans le secteur des HDT au cours des prochaines annes.Quatre projets de R&I sur mesure,avec un budget total estim 470 millions deuros,sont proposs pour surmonter ces obstacles restants court terme.

66、Les travaux devraient en particulier se concentrer sur lamlioration des performances techniques et conomiques pour permettre une application commerciale.En particulier,la normalisation du stockage dhydrogne bord,base sur la meilleure conomie sur le cycle de vie,pourrait acclrer le dveloppement de pr

67、oduits pour les camions FCH et le dploiement de linfrastructure de ravitaillement en hydrogne.moyen terme,le dveloppement de ce secteur pourrait galement crer des dbouchs lexportation pour lindustrie europenne,car un nombre croissant de pays dautres rgions sont en train de passer aux solutions de tr

68、ansport et de mobilit FCH.Cela permettrait galement de prserver des emplois et des comptences hautement qualifis en Europe.Ltude montre que les technologies et les applications des piles combustible et de lhydrogne sont essentielles pour un avenir neutre en carbone du secteur du transport routier et

69、 de la logistique.Une impulsion politique et industrielle concerte de la part dune large coalition de parties prenantes de lindustrie et du secteur public est ncessaire pour raliser cette avance.En passant aux poids lourds FCH dans les annes venir,lindustrie du camionnage sengagera sur la voie de so

70、lutions de mobilit comptitives,propres,silencieuses et innovantes,conformment aux efforts ambitieux de lUE en matire de protection du climat et aux objectifs de rduction des missions.12 1.Introduction Fuel cell and hydrogen trucks today There is an increasing momentum behind the development and comm

71、ercial use of fuel cell and hydrogen(FCH)trucks in the heavy-duty(HD)vehicle segment.In line with accelerating European and global efforts to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions(GHG),decarbonisation and mitigation of emissions are necessary for all transport modes across Europe

72、.Heavy-duty road transport contributes significantly to these emissions.Of the around 6.6 million medium-and heavy-duty trucks on European roads(ACEA,2019)1,around 3.3 million are of a weight higher than 15 tonnes(IEA,2017)2.Together with other heavy-duty vehicles,these trucks account for approximat

73、ely 27%of road transport related CO2 emissions and around 5%of all European Union(EU)GHG emissions(EEA,2018)3.FCH heavy-duty trucks(HDT)hold the promise of fulfilling the operational requirements of heavy-duty road transport currently carried out with mainly diesel trucks,while at the same time cont

74、ributing to cleaner air and lower emissions.However,successful commercialisation and market integration will depend on lowering the total cost of ownership(TCO)of these vehicles.This study,commissioned by the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen 2 Joint Undertaking,analyses the costs and market potential of FCH

75、technology for heavy-duty trucks,comparing the technology to other competing low-carbon alternatives.4 The results are based on extensive research and regular exchange with an Industry Advisory Board of 56 companies,institutions and associations.The FCH technology is currently in an early demonstrat

76、ion phase.Many new initiatives are being started,the first truck models are on the roads and new industry ventures and truck developments are being announced.In the coming years,real-life operational experience will further provide field data for zero-emission alternatives,especially for fuel cell a

77、nd hydrogen-powered and battery-powered trucks.In order to develop an evidence-based perspective on the FCH market development for the heavy-duty transport and logistics industry,the study analyses the status quo of technology,the projected cost development and the market potential.It shows that fas

78、t technology development and increasing market uptake would need to become a reality for widespread uptake of FC trucks.Without it,the decarbonisation of the transport sector will be a challenge.Based on a cost trajectory that considers increasing scale effects in production,the TCO and market analy

79、sis reveals that the FCH technology could have significant market potential in the investigated heavy-duty truck market segments.The study examines both the cost competitiveness and the technology acceptance rate of FCH HDT across three uses cases which represent approximately 53%of the total heavy-

80、duty truck market in terms of new vehicle sales.It provides an overview of the state of the art of technologies in this sector,its surrounding policy and regulatory landscape as well as 1 European Automobile Manufacturers Association.(2019).ACEA Report Vehicles in use Europe 2019.Retrieved from http

81、s:/www.acea.be/uploads/publications/ACEA_Report_Vehicles_ in_use-Europe_2019.pdf 2 International Energy Association.(2017).The Future of Trucks Implications for energy and the environment.Retrieved from https:/www.oecd.org/publications/the-future-of-trucks-9789264279452-en.htm 3 European Environment

82、 Agency.(2020).Carbon dioxide emissions from Europes heavy-duty vehicles.Retrieved from https:/www.eea.europa.eu/themes/transport/heavy-duty-vehicles 4 This study summary is the outcome of a study conducted by Roland Berger in close collaboration with an industry Advisory Board of 56 members from al

83、ong the entire value chain.The study developed two main reports:The present summary(Study Summary)and a comprehensive report(Study Report).Further information on the total cost of ownership and market potential analyses as well as the case studies is available in the separate Study Report,published

84、by the FCH JU(https:/www.fch.europa.eu/).13 ongoing trial and demonstration projects for FCH HDT.Route-and industry-specific case studies explore how the technology would perform in real-life conditions.Based on these analyses and lessons learned,policy recommendations and potential research and inn

85、ovation projects are suggested that could contribute to overcoming remaining technological and non-technological barriers to the widespread adoption of FCH technology in the transport and logistics industry.1.1 State-of-the-art of the technology A comparison of todays alternative powertrain technolo

86、gies options for the HD road transportation sector namely FCH,battery-electric vehicles(BEV),lower-carbon fuels,e-fuels and catenary shows that FCH heavy-duty trucks offer a zero-emission alternative with high operational flexibility allowing for long-haul operation,while featuring a relatively shor

87、t refuelling time.The comparison considers three indicators for a comprehensive overview of the technology state of the art:Technology Readiness Level of each technology measured on a scale from ideation to full commercial utilisation;Availability of refuelling and charging infrastructure;Emission r

88、eduction potential on a well-to-wheel basis.Figure 1:Comparison of alternative powertrain technologies for heavy-duty trucks FCH HDT prototype trucks are beginning on-road demonstrations,however a market-ready vehicle offering,fully proven in an operational environment,is yet to be established in th

89、e market.Commercialisation is still at an early stage with relatively high vehicle and H2 supply costs as well as a lack of sufficient HDT refuelling infrastructure.Similarly,BEV heavy-duty trucks face constraints regarding battery weight and price,which limits their range and payload for operations

90、 as well as charging time requirements and utilisation flexibility.However,BEV development benefits from industry experience in the passenger car and light-duty vehicle segments.As a result,battery heavy-duty trucks are already more established in operational environments.14 On the other hand,lower-

91、carbon fuel trucks,for example powered by LNG or CNG,have limited reduction potential of emissions,pollutants and particles.Yet these trucks have already found a market in Europe and are offered in transport and logistics offerings as an alternative to diesel trucks.Nevertheless,CNG/LNG also see lim

92、ited refuelling infrastructure.Another alternative for diesel combustion engines are heavy-duty trucks fuelled by e-fuels,a CO2-neutral alternative with medium-high range.Several e-fuel projects have shown technological readiness,but fuel production cost and limited scale of supply remain substantia

93、l hurdles for commercialisation.Overall,the emission reduction potential of vehicles with alternative powertrains depends on the source of energy or fuel.If the electricity used for vehicle charging or the energy used for H2 or e-fuel production does not stem from renewable energy,these alternatives

94、 cannot be counted towards a full CO2 reduction.Furthermore,as e-fuel HDT are otherwise conventional trucks with an internal combustion engine,they emit NOx and hence contribute to the emission of pollutants and particles.Catenary trucks compare to BEV with regard to their emission reduction potenti

95、al if no auxiliary combustion engines are installed.As catenary trucks are charged while driving through the overhead connection to the electricity grid,they do not require a time-consuming battery charging process.Moreover,they offer a potentially high range.However,these trucks are highly dependen

96、t on the roll-out of a comprehensive,associated infrastructure network.Comparing alternative powertrains is complex and inherent uncertainties should be considered.Technology adoption depends on different requirements in infrastructure,regional differences in regulations and incentives,varying custo

97、mer preferences as well as the total cost of ownership.Overall,zero-emission powertrains for trucks have yet to reach full commercial readiness.Considering the lack of available truck products in the market,the key challenge remains the development of commercially competitive zero-emission heavy-dut

98、y trucks.From a technology competition standpoint,hydrogen and fuel cell technology competes against other heavy-duty road transport applications that are being pushed forward in parallel.While all alternative technologies are currently being tested in trials and demonstrations and first commercial

99、roll-outs,these projects show the differing technology readiness levels.Larger demonstration projects are being rolled out for prototype-stage and pre-series-stage FCH and BEV applications in multi-coalition projects.At the same time,catenary and e-fuels are mostly being tested in smaller trials and

100、 demonstration activities.LNG/CNG powered trucks,on the other hand,are already being tested and integrated in regular operations across Europe,highlighting its advanced technology readiness.15 Figure 2:Overview of heavy-duty truck trial and demonstration activities Fuel cells and hydrogen heavy-duty

101、 trucks need to be brought beyond demonstration status and reach higher production levels in order to enable a commercial market.First steps are being made as recent company announcements provide evidence of the increasing activities in the FCH sector that go beyond demonstration projects and pre-co

102、mmercial market trials.As a prominent example in Europe,a joint venture of an OEM and infrastructure provider started in 2020 to deliver the first of a planned total of 1,600 FCH trucks to clients in Switzerland.In this partner network,the corresponding H2 infrastructure is being set up in Switzerla

103、nd in parallel.Such developments will provide further insights on the performance potential of FCH applications in the short term and highlight both the interest in alternative powertrain vehicles in the transport and logistics industry,and the need for a push to market of the heavy-duty truck produ

104、cts.1.2 Policy and regulatory regime Technological advancements in FCH heavy-duty trucks are driven by truck OEMs and component manufacturers.Yet also policy makers have an important part to play in unlocking the full potential of hydrogen technologies for the HDT industry.By setting ambitious polic

105、y goals combined with strong supporting legislation and support schemes,all relevant stakeholders can contribute to advancing and adapting FCH technology.Policies and support and incentive schemes at the national and supra-national level provide the regulatory framework in which FCH applications for

106、 the heavy-duty truck sector are being developed.A comparison of key international markets shows that policies and regulatory approaches on low-emission HD trucks differ across markets and technologies.At the same time,the increasing knowledge and conscience regarding the importance of lower carbon

107、solutions by the general public and policy makers have led to the introduction of CO2 emission standards for HDT in all investigated key markets in North America,Europe and Asia,etc.:The EU set the direction of an ambitious decarbonisation agenda as part of the EU Green Deal in 2019.It includes a 90

108、%reduction target for transport emissions by 2050 and,as such,is a driving force for low-emission vehicles,fuels,and the 16 build-up of the related infrastructure enhancing the long-term potential for FCH HDT;In California,a precedent was set regarding the implementation of the Clean Air Act as the

109、key framework for stricter targets on air quality,setting the cornerstone for industry action.Furthermore,sales quota for zero-emission trucks are in place;At U.S.national level,the upcoming Cleaner Trucks Initiative(CTI)puts HD trucks in focus of general emissions reduction efforts.The Environmenta

110、l Protection Agency is currently in the process of updating its NOx emission standards through the CTI and is expected to issue a final rule by mid-2021;China offers a strong government incentive scheme consisting of subsidies and purchase tax exemptions for low-emission vehicles including HD trucks

111、,which was recently prolonged until 2022;South Korea generally provides strong support for the take-up of hydrogen and fuel cell technology.Figure 3:Heavy-duty road freight decarbonisation trajectory5 While the key HD road freight markets North America,EU and Asia are set on a decarbonisation trajec

112、tory,the EU is aiming for the strictest emission targets.The EUs decarbonisation agenda is also guiding recent EU regulation for the transport sector,which needs to fulfil the long-term net emission reduction target of 90%by 2050.For the first time in Europe,the CO2 Emission Standards Regulation(EU)

113、2019/1242)has established manufacturer-specific tailpipe CO2 emission standards for new HDT with reduction targets of-15%by 2025 and-30%by 2030.Furthermore,the Clean Vehicle 5 Emission reduction targets refer to different baseline years and technologies and are as such not like for like.17 Directive

114、(2019/1161)introduced a definition of clean vehicles and national minimum public procurement targets for clean mobility solutions.While EU legislation increasingly pushes for stricter standards in emission reduction and fuel quality,hydrogen applications as a key enabler are not yet the focus of exi

115、sting policies.However,the European Commission envisages kick-starting a clean hydrogen economy with its Hydrogen Strategy and upcoming legislation.The ongoing review processes of selected legislation are particularly relevant for FCH technology uptake and central to current policy discussions at th

116、e EU and national levels,e.g.:General review of CO2 Emission Standards Regulations in 2022,that will include a review of 2030 targets,an extension of scope to other HD vehicles and a review of the zero-and low-emission vehicle incentive mechanism;Reviewing the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Direct

117、ive,which expires in 2021,updating requirements for refuelling stations for alternative fuels as well as compulsory targets for EU member states for building a European H2 network are in discussion;Review of the Eurovignette Directive,extending the scope of vehicles in the current legislation and in

118、troducing charging based on CO2 standards,including a potential reduction for zero-emission vehicles.Hydrogen is emerging as a central building block for a renewable energy system in the EU,as defined also in the EU Energy System Integration Strategy from July 2020.However,the European approach towa

119、rds subsidies and tax exemptions is currently still fragmented.FCH heavy-duty trucks could benefit from a more cohesive approach across member states,e.g.with regards to HRS network roll-out,as well as from incentive schemes to support the general uptake of hydrogen applications and that of zero-emi

120、ssion FCH vehicles.For example,the support for hydrogen valleys and the FCH JU Regions and Cities Initiative provide first steps towards such a systemic approach for hydrogen application by the EU.These initiatives show that in order to effectively achieve the intended development in the targeted se

121、ctors,a more holistic approach should combine funding and incentives schemes on three levels:Support of the supply-side of FCH trucks through large-scale deployments;Strengthening of the demand side through measures such as purchase tax exemptions for new FCH HDT;Support for refuelling infrastructur

122、e with significant investments and targeted funding schemes to finance the build-up of a comprehensive network of refuelling stations,e.g.through mandates to develop HRS along major corridors with a distance of 150 km between stations(as suggested in the context of the review of the Alternative Fuel

123、s Infrastructure Directive).The analysis of support schemes for zero-and low-emission vehicles at the national level shows that subsidies,tolls and tax exemptions have successfully been used to foster the uptake of electric vehicles.With increasing technology development and availability,these measu

124、res could also favour FCH technology.For instance,an impactful lever is road toll exemption for low-and zero-emission vehicles,an instrument successfully used in Norway,other Scandinavian countries or Switzerland.Another lever to stimulate cost competitiveness of zero-emission technologies lies in h

125、igher taxes for diesel and fossil fuels.While it increases the cost for the incumbent technology,it also provides financing for demand stimulation and tax exemptions in other areas.Germany,for example,will raise carbon prices to EUR 25 per tonne in 2021 and EUR 55 per tonne in 2025 gradually improvi

126、ng cost competitiveness for FCH trucks.The current policy landscapes in the EU and other key international markets show that due to the increasingly stricter stance on emissions,policy decisions are being made in 18 favour of zero-emission vehicles.FCH heavy-duty trucks can benefit from this environ

127、ment as the technology development and vehicle uptake are supported by various initiatives.However,they still need to be integrated into a more systemic approach across Europe,the EU and at member state level.The EU net zero emissions target in 2050 will only be possible if the legislation and suppo

128、rt schemes are implemented.Considering a trucks lifetime of up to 15 years,European truck fleet operators need to ensure that from the years 2030 to 2035,all newly purchased trucks are zero-emission vehicles.Legislation constitutes the backdrop for a continued transition towards low-carbon alternati

129、ves.As such,supply and demand side,as well as infrastructure considerations are to be considered to continue the path towards zero-emission mobility in heavy-duty road transport.1.3 Existing trial and demonstration activities Trial and demonstration activities play a crucial role in paving the way f

130、or the commercialisation of FCH heavy-duty trucks.Interest and action in the technology are increasing and a growing number of projects around the world demonstrate that FCH heavy-duty trucks work.In Europe,multiple demonstration projects cover different vehicle types,operational settings and a broa

131、d variety of stakeholder groups.At the same time,heavy-duty demonstration projects are also taking place in North America,with a regional focus in the Los Angeles area in California.While European projects are well positioned to push FCH technology in the truck sector forward,projects in other geogr

132、aphies offer important insights.Despite projects being usually tailored to local conditions,they often share similar success factors and provide learnings beyond specific regional regulations or local preferences for certain technologies.Such insights mainly refer to,e.g.:Possibility to rely on publ

133、ic support schemes:The Alberta Zero-Emissions Truck Electrification Collaboration(AZETEC)project in Canada forged by a multi-partner industry coalition receives substantial public funding through the BEST Challenge programme;Existence of local hydrogen ecosystems:Ecosystems make it possible to lever

134、age synergies from different modes of FCH applications,for example,as in the multi-modal approach of the Zero and Near-Zero Emissions Freight Facilities Project(ZANZEFF)in the Californian Los Angeles basin region;Strong backing by industry players:Individual company commitments on zero-emission tran

135、sport can create momentum for commercialisation,as found in the Anheuser Busch Zero-Emission Beer Delivery initiative in cooperation with the U.S.OEM Nikola Motors.In recent years,the overall growth in trial and demonstration activities in the heavy-duty truck segment worldwide was driven by project

136、s in Europe.The number of European FCH HDT trial and demonstration projects is now levelling up with earlier US efforts.In total,twelve projects in Europe,nine key projects in North America,and two projects in Asia were identified that have been finalised,planned or are ongoing since 2015.Many of th

137、e European projects are conducted cross-nationally by multi-partner coalitions.It is not only OEMs and component manufacturers participating in these projects,but also infrastructure providers and wholesale and retail companies.Funding comes from different sources,depending on the specific context a

138、nd coalition(European,national or interregional level).In North America,on the other hand,projects often build on support and funding from regional governments,as has been the case in the FCH frontrunner state California.19 Figure 4:Overview of key fuel cell hydrogen heavy-duty truck trial and demon

139、stration projects For this study,the ten most relevant trial and demonstration activities were identified and analysed to provide a deeper understanding of where the industry stands today.The selected projects cover activities in Europe and North America and four relevant truck types(rigid 4x2,tract

140、or 4x2,rigid 6x4,tractor 6x4).6 A comparison of the selected projects shows high levels of transferability of European projects and lower overall transferability of projects from North America.7 By definition,European projects usually share very similar technical features,regulatory frameworks,use c

141、ases,stakeholders and political motivation.Demonstration projects in North America draw on specific,mostly local factors,such as high industry ambition as identified in the cooperation between Nikola Motors and Anheuser Busch.As a concrete example,the Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility(HHM)initiative in Swit

142、zerland can be differentiated from other projects.This joint venture between the OEM Hyundai Motor Company and the H2 infrastructure provider H2Energy plans to bring 1,600 Xcient fuel cell trucks and the related H2 infrastructure to the Swiss market.HHM is the first to offer FCH heavy-duty trucks to

143、 clients in Switzerland,generally and for commercial use in a pay-per-use model.The business model shows existing industry interest and the potential of the FCH HDT market.Switzerland was chosen as the first country for the roll-out because local conditions are particularly favourable.Zero-emission

144、vehicles are exempt from the Swiss heavy vehicle environmental duties per tonne and kilometre(leistungsabhngige Schwerverkehrsabgabe,LSVA)and a strong hydrogen business community has built up over the last years.Furthermore,the regional approach allows for the possibility to scale up infrastructure

145、and operations within a geographically defined ecosystem.HHM illustrates market readiness and cost competitiveness of FCH HDT under such circumstances and presents a lighthouse project for FCH technology in Europe.In building industry coalitions along the value chain of FCH trucks,the approach also

146、6 For deep dives on the ten selected projects,please refer to the trial and demonstration project section in chapter B.2 of the Study Report.7 Transferability refers to the replicability and direct implementation potential of trial and demonstration activities/projects to the European context.20 add

147、resses the chicken-and-egg dilemma of truck roll-out vs.refuelling infrastructure availability.In line with the growing number of trial and demonstration projects,there is an increasing number of hydrogen refuelling stations(HRS)in Europe8.To date,most existing HRS are dedicated to the use of passen

148、ger vehicles and cannot be used by HD trucks due to different technological requirements for filling up the much larger truck tanks.However,the increasing number of stations is promising,and the existing foundation of HRS in Europe could partly be upgraded for truck-specific refuelling soon.As refue

149、lling infrastructure is adjusted to meet the needs of heavy-duty trucks,more demonstration projects become feasible,providing a foundation for larger scale commercial deployment.The priority will be on building up infrastructure networks along major transport corridors(the European TEN-T corridors)a

150、nd in proximity to demand centres,ideally in combination with evolving hydrogen hubs and valleys in Europe.Trial and demonstration projects continue to provide important insights into the immediate trajectory of FCH heavy-duty trucks,as pertains to their technology development,cost competitiveness a

151、nd implementation challenges.Thus,these projects advance the commercialisation of FCH HDT and are important steps towards unlocking the full market potential of FCH heavy-duty trucks in Europe.Business-driven projects,such as Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility in Switzerland and several OEM cooperations are

152、encouraging signs of a developing market.However,in order to translate projects and first ventures into sustainable businesses and enable their market potential,cost competitiveness needs to be generated on the supply side(i.e.truck products,fuel supply,etc.),and demand has to be increased through t

153、argeted incentive schemes.8 More information on HRS network development to be found at:https:/fchobservatory.eu/observatory/technology-and-market/hydrogen-refueling-stations/cumulative-data 21 2.Market potential for FCH heavy-duty trucks in Europe The road freight sector is an important pillar of th

154、e European economy as 75%of goods are transported on wheels9,but also a significant source of CO2 emissions.As a zero-emission solution with a similar performance as conventional diesel-powered heavy-duty vehicles,FCH trucks have substantial market potential.This study analysed the market potential

155、of FCH HD trucks in Europe by building on a comparison of total cost of ownership and a truck market forecast.The market potential analysis was conducted along three use cases,each representing a specific HD truck segment.Together,the three use cases account for approximately 53%of HDT sales in Euro

156、pe at the same time,they are responsible for the main share of CO2 emissions being attributed to heavy-duty vehicles in the EU(EC,2018).10|11 In order to grasp their potential in the short term(2023)and the medium term(2030),a Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)analysis was conducted.12 The developed cost

157、trajectory demonstrates substantial potential for FCH heavy-duty vehicles.The TCO results also provide the foundation for estimating the market potential through cost advantages and technology acceptance rates.Realising this market potential,however,will require the development of a favourable finan

158、cial and regulatory ecosystem for both the demand side,e.g.truck operators and logistics users,and the supply side,e.g.truck OEMs,component manufacturers and fuel and infrastructure providers.The three focus use cases investigated within the analysis are:Use Case I:4x2 tractor(+trailer)of 40 tonnes

159、gross vehicle weight,used by international and national logistics companies and by companies in the manufacturing industry with their own trucking fleets.This use case represents the long-haul segment with an annual mileage of 110,000-160,000 km.Use Case II:6x2 rigid trucks of 27 tonnes gross vehicl

160、e weight,used by wholesalers with their own trucking fleets.This use case represents the mid-haul segment with an annual mileage of 50,000-150,000 km.9 European Commission.(2019).Energy,transport and environment statistics 2019 edition.Retrieved from https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-statist

161、ical-books/-/KS-DK-19-001 10 The regulation(EU)2019/1242 on CO2 emission standards for heavy-duty trucks sets tailpipe CO2 emission performance targets for new trucks Targets are set at level of sub-groups referring to delivery vehicles:6x2 tractor and rigid trucks(all weights)and 4x2 tractor and ri

162、gid trucks above 16 tonnes.The HDT sub-groups also account for different use profiles:urban,regional,long haul.These truck types are responsible of up to 70%of total HDV CO2 emissions,with 4x2 tractors contributing the most,accounting for up to 38%of these emissions.11 European Commission.(2018).Com

163、mission staff working document impact assessment-Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council setting CO2 emission performance standards for new heavy duty vehicles.Retrieved from https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=comnat:SWD_2018_

164、0185_FIN 12 The analysis builds on a projected cost trajectory for the main input factors,e.g.fuel cell module and hydrogen tank costs,battery costs and H2 costs.The cost trajectory was developed in alignment with the studys industry Advisory Board and is based on expert input.The methodology and ke

165、y assumptions can be found in the Annex of the Study Report.22 Use Case III:4x2 rigid trucks of 18 tonnes gross vehicle weight that are used by regional logistics companies and retailers with their own trucking fleets and represents the short-haul,regional distribution segment with an annual mileage

166、 of 40,000-85,000 km.Figure 5:Use case characteristics This study compares a total of seven different technologies.The incumbent diesel internal combustion engine serves as a reference case.It is compared to a zero-emission e-fuel alternative and the zero-emission powertrain technologies of fuel cel

167、l and hydrogen electric(FCEV),battery electric(BEV)and catenary(overhead)lines.The business case analysis(TCO)differentiates between three H2 onboard storage alternatives which are currently being used or researched for FCH vehicles.These storage technologies are for hydrogen storage at different pr

168、essure levels and conditions:compressed gaseous H2 at 350 bar and 700 bar,as well as cryogenic liquid H2(LH2)at-253 C.All three storage technologies are potentially viable options for FCH truck uptake scenarios;however,the compressed gaseous options are currently more mature than the suggested liqui

169、d hydrogen route.Additionally,package constraints to carrying a sufficient amount of fuel in the trucks need to be considered.Liquid hydrogen could be a viable refuelling alternative by 2030,mainly due to this package advantage(i.e.high volumetric energy density translates into more fuel on the truc

170、k),scale of production and potentially lower refuelling infrastructure cost.However,hydrogen at 700 bar provides more flexibility for hydrogen sourcing,for example through pipeline supply or on-site electrolysis production.It potentially also offers compatibility with lower pressure levels of other

171、vehicle types,enabling synergy effects for higher infrastructure utilisation.350 bar technology on the other hand is only a solution for short-range operations with lower hydrogen on-board storage requirements.This technology is already deployed in existing FCH trucks today.Use case IUse case IIUse

172、case IIIRoute typeLong distanceLong distanceDistributionTypical operatorsNational and International logistics companiesManufacturing companies with own trucking fleetWholesalers with own trucking fleetLogistics companiesRetailers with own trucking fleetTruck segmentHDT(40 t)HDT(27 t)HDT(18 t)Route c

173、haracteristics140,000 km p.a.570 km per day95,000 km p.a.380 km per day60,000 km p.a.250 km per dayAverage new truck sales in Europe per year100 k trucks(28%of market)20 k trucks(6%of market)70 k trucks(20%of market)SegmentInternational logisticsNational logisticsManufacturing industryWholesaleRegio

174、nal logisticsRetailTruck characteristicsTractor 4x2Rigid 6x2Rigid 4x2 23 Figure 6:Main on-board hydrogen storage technologies Comparing the total cost of ownership(TCO)of FCH trucks with conventional diesel and other zero-emission alternatives(e-diesel,battery electric,catenary)revealed a clear tren

175、d towards cost competitiveness of FCH technology if production levels at scale can be reached.13|14 It is shown that in 2030,the overall sales share of FCH heavy-duty trucks can increase to up to 17%in the investigated use cases.This demonstrates that FCH heavy-duty trucks are set to become a corner

176、stone of the European truck market.Furthermore,if this development materialises,the CO2 emission reduction target could be reached by 2050.2.1 Total cost of ownership analysis The consideration of the total cost of ownership provides a comprehensive analysis for a trucks cost across its lifetime.In

177、this chapter,the key findings illustrate the potential for FCH heavy-duty trucks to compete with other powertrain alternatives.A brief introduction of the methodology and an overview of the assumptions allow for a deeper understanding of the modelling process.Lastly,the discussion of results reflect

178、s the commercial potential of FCH technology across the three heavy-duty truck use cases.Key findings:The total cost of ownership(TCO)modelling of trucks with conventional and alternative powertrains shows that fuel cell technology has a significant cost-down potential at scale,looking at the time f

179、rame from 2023 to 2030.This applies to the three use cases developed for the analysis reflecting different operation patterns and truck types.While the results reveal a cost premium of up to 22%for fuel cell trucks over diesel trucks in 2023,the analysis indicates a clear trend towards cost competit

180、iveness of FCH heavy-duty trucks by 2030.This cost competitiveness is possible for all H2 storage technologies.In comparison to battery electric trucks,FCH trucks show better TCO results across the years for the long-and medium-haul use cases.However,in the third use case on regional logistics,despi

181、te lower operational flexibility,battery electric trucks 13 The TCO analysis compares seven propulsion alternatives:diesel,e-fuels,fuel cell(and hydrogen)electric vehicle technology(FCEV),battery electric vehicle technology(BEV)and catenary(overhead)lines.14 Production levels at scale refer to a fue

182、l cell module production per year increasing from a niche scenario with 50,000 units/year.Some uncertainty remains regarding the technological development of H2storage,but ongoing R&I projects are adressing this barrier TCO results show the potential of different storage technologies,but maturity st

183、atus needs to be considered The potential to integrate the storage in the available vehicle architecture,project cost developments and technical feasibility(e.g.for LH2tanks)have been identified as potential barriersTo consider for study resultsStatus today350 bar technology suitable for short-range

184、 operationswith lower hydrogen on-board storage requirements 350 bar First FC truck rollout in EU with 350 bar is currently underway Established technology for FC buses Pursued by OEMs as compromise(e.g.refuelling protocol available)700 bar technology provides more flexibility for hydrogen sourcing(

185、e.g.through pipeline supply or on-site electrolysis)700 bar First FC truck concepts for EU with 700 bar announced Established technology for FC passenger cars Pursued by OEMs for higher energy density,interoperability of HRS and H2supply flexibility Dilemma of using 700 bar in the short-term vs.wait

186、ing for further development of LH2Liquid hydrogen could be a viable refuelling alternative by 2030 mainly due to scale of production and potentially lower refuellinginfrastructure costLH2 First FC truck concepts for EU with LH2announced Technology in R&D stage with limited demonstration within passe

187、nger cars around from 1998-2008 Pursued by one OEM to achieve high range at lower vehicle cost(due to higher energy density),but limited H2supply options in Europe today24 may have a cost advantage compared to FCH technology.The TCO analysis identifies the cost of powertrain(CAPEX)and energy/fuel co

188、sts(OPEX)as the main cost drivers along the vehicle lifetime.Moreover,road toll is identified as a potential key lever to enable business cases already in the short term.Overall,the total cost of ownership(TCO)modelling demonstrates that FCH technology for heavy-duty trucks can become cost-competiti

189、ve with the incumbent diesel trucks by 2030.While the technology has already overcome many of its teething problems in the research and development phase,industrialised production and economies of scale will be key for ensuring this trajectory within the investigated time frame between 2023 and 2030

190、.Hence,the TCO analysis illustrates that three factors will be crucial for FCH technology uptake in the heavy-duty truck segment:At-scale production for lower component costs and volume ramp-up due to automated manufacturing,improved purchasing processes and higher supply chain maturity/depth;Availa

191、bility of affordable green electricity for hydrogen production;Build-up of a sufficiently dense network of H2 refuelling infrastructure and a supply chain for low-cost green hydrogen(e.g.through the exemption of electricity surcharges for hydrogen production).Methodology:The Total Cost of Ownership(

192、TCO)modelling methodology is based on the three use cases,comparing conventional and alternative powertrains on a like-for-like basis of truck performance.This means that truck operators would get a similar product as with a diesel truck today.In the model,input on the application scenario of a truc

193、k is introduced to yield results on what a specific truck will cost over its lifetime.Key assumptions on CAPEX and OPEX provide the basis,while all parameters can be adjusted to reflect specific operations and conditions.CAPEX parameters relate to the truck chassis and powertrain and infrastructure

194、costs.OPEX parameters cover fuel and energy costs as well as operations and maintenance costs,e.g.vehicle tax and road toll.In addition,the current EU regulatory framework is considered.Niche to mass market scenarios are assumed to show the capabilities of FCH technology at different levels of indus

195、trial scale production.15 As such,the analysis is not based on todays prototype cost.The model offers two commercial perspectives:an analysis of the vehicle costs as they will arise over the vehicle lifetime(EUR/truck)and an analysis on the basis of payload considerations(EUR ct/tonne-km).16 The lat

196、ter reflects the weight-related factors that could impact the truck payload,e.g.the higher weight of the alternative powertrain.Another example would be the weight of the batteries on a battery electric truck that could potentially reduce the weight of goods to be transported due to overall weight r

197、estrictions.In addition,the model includes environmental metrics providing an estimation of CO2 emissions savings on a well-to-wheel as well as tank-to-wheel basis.15 The niche scenario refers to assumed fuel cell module production levels per year of 5,000 units/year.The rather niche scenario refers

198、 to 50,000 units/year and the mass scenario to 150,000 units/year.16 The EUR ct/tonne-km basis shows the TCO per EUR cents per tonne-km and reflects the costs of transporting one tonne payload on one kilometre of the route.For the calculation and based on current regulation in the EU,trucks with alt

199、ernative powertrains are assumed to receive a payload gratification of 1 tonne compared to equivalent diesel trucks.25 Figure 7:Schematic methodology of TCO modelling Assumptions:The detailed parameter assumptions of the TCO model were developed in close cooperation with the studys Industry Advisory

200、 Board to provide the current state of costs and future cost and volume projections.The assumptions can be clustered into three main groups:(1)General input on motor vehicle tax,insurance cost and road toll;(2)Truck and technology-specific input,such as vehicle configuration and payload consideratio

201、ns,fuel cell and hydrogen tank costs,battery capacity and cost;(3)Fuel/Energy and infrastructure input,such as refuelling and charging costs.Figure 8:TCO model structure In addition,the analysis was conducted reflecting further key assumptions:First and second life:The analysis differentiates betwee

202、n the first(5 years)and second life(10 years,combined with first life);Like-for-like comparability:FCH HDT trucks provide the same daily performance for operators as diesel trucks today(i.e.daily duty cycle can be performed without refuelling/recharging);Niche to mass market development:The cost dev

203、elopment of FCH technology is not based on todays prototype cost but directed towards increasing production Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)in EUR/Truck and EUR ct/tonne-kmApplication scenario and use casesTruck specifications and performanceInfrastructure specifications1.Capital cost2.Fuel/Energy cost

204、3.Other O&M cost4.Infrastructure cost Consumption Truck costs(w/o powertrain)Lifetime of equipment km Diesel powertrain costs Ad-Blue system E-drive costs Fuel cell cost H2tank costs Battery capacity Battery costs Catenary equipment costs Weight and payload Fuel/energy cost(incl.infrastructure surch

205、arges and taxes)Diesel(+Ad-Blue cost)e-Diesel Electricity cost(charged,i.e.including fast-charging for BEV,overhead line infrastructure for Catenary)H2costs(refuelled,i.e.including HRS)Ad-Blue cost CO2emissionsFuel/energy and infrastructure inputTruck technology specific input Utilisation days/year

206、Duration of 1st/2ndlife Registration fee Motor vehicle tax Maintenance cost Insurance cost Assumptions on range buffer(e.g.for batteries)Road tollGeneral inputTotal cost of ownership EUR/truck and EUR ct/tonne-km 26 levels at scale over time,from a niche technology in 2023 to a rather mass scenario

207、in 2030;Current EU regulatory framework and incentive landscape.Results:The TCO results across all use cases reveal a cost premium for FCH trucks of up to 22%compared to diesel trucks in 2023.While these results are still based on a niche scenario,a trend towards cost competitiveness can be observed

208、 from 2027 onwards.17 In comparison with other zero-emission technologies,the results show a clear advantage for high daily and annual mileage.For instance,when compared to battery electric trucks,FCH trucks show a lower TCO across the years for the long-and medium-haul use cases(Use Case I and II).

209、This analysis is confirmed also when considering the payload capacity of the trucks.As battery size and weight influence the maximum payload capacity of heavy-duty trucks,a large battery would mean a lower maximum payload.18 As a result,a limited deployment of battery electric trucks in the medium-a

210、nd long-haul segment is expected.However,in regional logistics(Use Case III),the results show that battery electric trucks can have a cost advantage compared to FCH technology under the assumption that no additional power loads(e.g.for cooling the trucks cargo hold),higher payload or multi-shift ope

211、rations are required.The breakdown by use cases further demonstrates the favourable TCO development for FCH technology on a more granular level:Use Case I:In the long-haul use case,FCH technologies are projected to achieve a lower TCO than conventional diesel and other alternative powertrains in 203

212、0.While a cost premium of 18%-22%remains for the niche market scenario in 2023,in 2027 the TCO of FCH heavy-duty trucks could already be at a similar level as diesel.Considering the current TCO gap to diesel trucks,specific incentives would have the potential to achieve cost parity even earlier.In c

213、omparison,battery electric trucks show a higher cost premium of 36%in 2023 when compared to diesel,mainly due to the battery costs.Moreover,as indicated before,the long-haul use case would potentially see payload restrictions due to the size and weight of the battery needed for kilometres driven.As

214、a result,the TCO modelling reveals that battery electric trucks will not reach cost competitiveness with diesel-powered trucks by 2030.17 The niche scenario refers to fuel cell module production levels per year of In the mid-haul use case with an annual mileage of 95,000 km,FCH technology already be

215、comes cost competitive with diesel in 2027,while it is still at a cost premium of up to 18%in 2023.In 2030,FCH heavy-duty trucks would provide a better TCO than all other investigated alternatives.Moreover,the different H2 storage technologies show a better TCO outlook in 2023 when compared to other

216、 zero-emission alternatives.They also remain more cost competitive than the alternatives diesel e-fuels,BEV and catenary in 2027 and 2030.It can be noted that the results for battery electric trucks are only slightly higher than the TCO of FCH technology.However,payload considerations indicate again

217、 that a payload penalty would apply due to the battery size and weight for the required mileage.Figure 10:TCO assessment for Use Case II kEUR/Truck;1st&2nd life 20231,1441,6761,1161,3201,1221,36220301,0461,3441,4711,5161,1071,2641,3961,0981,3611,4401,0311,0661,1081,17320271,49650%18%22%20%36%32%0%3%

218、1%-6%-3%-5%DieselFCEV 700 barDiesel E-FuelsFCEV LH22FCEV 350 bar1CatenaryBEVUse case I Tractor 4x2,140,000 km annual mileage kEUR/truck11)Under the assumption that sufficient hydrogen storage can be technically integrated in the current truck chassis architecture.Potential length regulation adjustme

219、nts required.2)The technical maturity is at a very early stage and needs to be demonstrated in a truck.716203070269320277219521,072903731838881863 8587378787269637279306726847562023+46.7%+14.7%+18.1%+17.4%+20.2%+30.2%-1.4%+1.5%+0.2%-7%-4%-5%Diesel E-FuelsDieselFCEV 350 barFCEV 700 barFCEV LH21BEVCat

220、enaryUse case II Rigid 6x2,95,000 km annual mileage kEUR/truck21)The technical maturity is at a very early stage and needs to be demonstrated in a truck.28 Use Case III:In the regional distribution use case with 60,000 km annual mileage,the TCO results show that FCH technology has a cost premium aga

221、inst diesel of as low as 11%in 2023.Due to a significant cost-down potential at scale in the short-haul segment,FCH heavy-duty trucks will generally reach cost competitiveness with diesel trucks in 2027,despite some variations across the different H2 storage technologies.Due to the comparatively low

222、er annual mileage,battery electric trucks have a lower TCO compared to FCH technology.In addition,the results indicate that the TCO for BEV will be lower than diesel in 2027 and 2030,indicating the potential for battery electric trucks on such routes that require lower overall range flexibility.Figu

223、re 11:TCO assessment for Use Case III kEUR/Truck;1st&2nd life The TCO analysis allows for two key learnings regarding FCH cost-reduction potential.Significant cost-down potential for FCEV at scale exists for all three use cases demonstrating the TCO potential and the broad applicability of FCH techn

224、ologies in the HDT market and its market potential towards 2030.19 Furthermore,with a cost premium of 11%-22%in 2023 and the projected cost-down potential,FCH technology could be well within reach of cost competitiveness by 2030.In order to realise this projected cost-down scenario,a strong industry

225、 push towards economies of scale and supporting incentive schemes and regulations are needed.If vehicle demand is stimulated,infrastructure availability is ensured and the framework conditions provide a TCO advantage,the current momentum behind FCH technologies can be accelerated.Under 19 While this

226、 Study Summary primarily compares the TCO of all three use cases on a kEUR/Truck basis,TCO modelling was also performed on a EUR ct/tonne-km basis.This second perspective considers potential payload gains and losses and shows that also when considering payload capacity FCH truck technology becomes m

227、ore competitive than conventional diesel,e-fuels,BEV and catenary across all use cases as of 2027.Further information on the TCO analysis on EUR ct/tonne-km basis is available in chapter C.2 on TCO results in the Study Report.42920304535205344686715344656034666074624454374634404155725582023512202758

228、743%11%14%14%9%29%-3%0%-1%-7%-5%-6%DieselFCEV 700 barDiesel E-FuelsFCEV 350 barFCEV LH21BEVCatenaryUse case III Rigid 4x2,60,000 km annual mileage kEUR/truck31)The technical maturity is at a very early stage and needs to be demonstrated in a truck.29 these preconditions,the TCO of FCH technology wil

229、l reach cost competitiveness with diesel before the end of this decade.20 2.2 Market potential The TCO results provide the foundation for estimating the market of FCH heavy-duty trucks in Europe from 2023 towards 2030 and beyond.In this chapter,the key findings illustrate the potential for market pe

230、netration of FCH heavy-duty trucks based on the key assumption that cost advantages will lead to faster deployment.A brief introduction of the methodology includes three uptake scenarios that were developed reflecting potential truck adoption rates(conservative,base and optimistic scenario).Building

231、 on these scenarios,the view on the results per use case-specific market segment demonstrates that the TCO development will be key to more wide-spread adoption within the different segments.Figure 12:European market potential of FCEV#of truck sales,rounded Base scenario Key findings:The market model

232、 shows clear potential for zero-emission trucks,i.e.FCH and BEV heavy-duty trucks in all developed scenarios.For both technologies,increasing sales shares until 2030 are expected for the European market.After a moderate uptake until 2027,the market potential analysis indicates a significant FCH heav

233、y-duty truck market penetration to an overall sales share of 17%in 2030 in the base scenario(9%sales share for battery electric trucks).Based on the heavy-duty truck market,this refers to approximately 59,500 new trucks in 2030.This represents roughly one third(32%)of the annual sales in 2030 for th

234、e assessed use case specific 20 Technological and non-technological barriers and derived recommendations for policy makers are discussed in chapter 4 of this Study Summary.50,0000100,000350,000150,000400,000650(0.2%)20231,140(0.3%)341,200202920242,010(0.6%)202520266,230(1.8%)59.180(16.8%)202713,190(

235、3.8%)329,300353,2003,540(1.0%)27,940(8.0%)2030332,6002028346,200349,700338,40032,310(9.1%)336,000+1%Total salesSelected market segment salesBEV salesFCEV sales17%H2xx%CAGR of market growthMarket share of FCEV in 2030H2XX%30 market segments.By 2030,it is estimated that an accumulated 110,000 heavy-du

236、ty fuel cell trucks are deployed on European roads(base scenario).The base scenario for market potential of zero-emission trucks is in line with the necessary trajectory for reaching the CO2 emission reduction targets for 2050.To achieve the EUs decarbonisation targets for transport,zero-emission tr

237、ucks need to become the dominant technology of new truck sales in the decade starting 2030,to replace the majority of the EU truck fleet by 2050.However,the analysis shows that this will only be possible if the modelled growth rates for zero-emission technology are achieved.Currently,the market is s

238、till in a very early phase and needs to be developed now to allow for the market potential that will materialise.Cost competitiveness and market uptake can only be achieved through a concerted push to market and the set-up of required infrastructure.Methodology:The market potential of FCH HD trucks

239、in Europe is analysed along the three use cases,representing different road transport segments,operating patterns and truck types.21 In these use cases,fuel cell and hydrogen as well as battery electric technologies(FCEV and BEV)are currently considered the two most relevant,commercially viable and

240、technically advanced options.Hence,a specific focus is put on those two technologies.The market potential analysis itself considers the total cost of ownership development of heavy-duty trucks in different use cases and different combinations of daily range and annual mileage.In addition,it also con

241、siders that further external factors besides cost impact decision making.It is assumed that despite specific,calculated TCO results and technology development until 2030,only a share of trucks would be purchased as FCH trucks in earlier years and only become purely cost driven decision in a more mat

242、ure market(e.g.technology is proven,more infrastructure is available,etc.).Therefore,three uptake scenarios were developed reflecting that truck adoption rates in the future market are estimated based on clear criteria.These refer to the acceptance of a new technology as well as political,technologi

243、cal and vehicle availability parameters.Furthermore,market dynamics and infrastructure availability are considered.The Conservative scenario assumes that FCH and battery electric trucks mainly remain niche solutions in the selected leading market segments.In addition,a widespread risk aversion towar

244、ds new technologies continues to hamper the technology uptake.Incentives and subsidies are reduced as the market develops.In the Base scenario,FCH and battery electric trucks achieve increasing market shares,and involved stakeholders show a higher degree of acceptance of business risks.Subsidies and

245、 incentives are put in place to ensure cost reductions at scale,while significant hydrogen infrastructure is being developed along main routes and near logistics trade hubs.The Optimistic scenario assumes that FCH and battery electric trucks see robust adoption across all considered market segments.

246、Business risks are shared with other parties besides truck operators and a strong policy push supports the entire value chain,including OEMs,hydrogen and infrastructure providers,truck operators and logistics users.21 The market potential analysis refers to the specific market segments identified fo

247、r this study:international logistics,national logistics,manufacturing industry,wholesale,retail and regional logistics.31 Figure 13:Market uptake scenarios%of FCEV/BEV uptake Results:The study reveals strong FCEV market potential for the specific use cases with sales shares between 16-51%in 2030,dep

248、ending on the uptake scenario.The conservative scenario shows a high growth rate of the sales share from 2027 until 2030 and an overall much slower development for BEV.The base scenario shows a higher uptake already for 2027 with a steep increase until 2030.In this scenario,FCEV sales surpass BEV sa

249、les already in 2023.The optimistic scenario predicts a total sale of over 95,000 FCH heavy-duty trucks in 2030,representing 51%of market sales in the considered market segments.It shows a higher uptake rate already for 2027 with a steep increase until 2030.The development of BEV trucks sales also in

250、creases,yet at a much lower level.The market potential analysis estimates that,following the base scenario,an accumulated total of 110,000 heavy-duty fuel cell trucks are deployed on European roads by 2030.This represents a 1.7%market share in a 6.6 million medium and heavy-duty truck market in Euro

251、pe.Figure 14:European market potential of FCEV#of truck sales Market segments 1%3%15Conservative scenario2%202310%202725%20300.5%0.5%2%Base scenario2%202315%202750%20301%5%30%0.5%1%5%Optimistic scenario10%202330%202780%5%15%60%1.5%5%20%2030 Widespread risk aversion towards new technologies when busi

252、ness risks taken by truck operators(only)Remaining short-term subcontracting(until further notice)Reduction of initial incentives/subsidies as market develops Price and reliability emphasised as top priorities by logistic service customers Subsidies/incentives to reach costs at scale Some acceptance

253、 of business risks by other parties(e.g.OEMs,fuel provider e.g.H2floaters)Long(er)-term contracts ensuring plannability Significant hydrogen infrastructure developments on main routes Development of secondary marketPotential external factors(selected)Parameters based on Advisory Board expert inputFC

254、EV/BEV DieselTCO Acceptance of business risks by other parties besides truck operators H2floater as part of contracts Increasing buy-back options offered by OEMs Strong policy push for the whole transport chain(e.g.OEMs,logistics users,truck operators,fuel&infrastructure providers)32 Overall,the ana

255、lysis shows that there is substantial market potential for FCH heavy-duty trucks in Europe.In the cost sensitive transport and logistics industry,commercial competitiveness of zero-emission vehicles with diesel will be crucial for the market uptake of FCH technology in the upcoming years.This was de

256、monstrated in the TCO analysis as well as in the market potential analysis,building on three potential uptake scenarios.However,the analysis has also shown that it is not only the cost perspective that will be considered.Facing an overall growing demand for more sustainable operations and supply cha

257、ins,the transport and logistics industry is responding.The deployment of zero-emission vehicles,pushed by political initiatives and market demand,is becoming more and more widespread.Against this background,FCH technology presents a good zero-emission solution with a promising trajectory for reachin

258、g cost competitiveness with the incumbent diesel trucks in the next decade.Integrating FCH trucks into the fleet starting from 2023 will help to achieve the decarbonisation targets for the European truck industry.The predicted number of BEV and FCH heavy-duty trucks to enter the European market by 2

259、030 will have significant CO2 emission savings potential of up to 19 million tonnes CO2e per year when they are refueled with zero-emission hydrogen.Due to its high share of the market potential,the impact of FCH technology on emission reduction going forward will be significant.Furthermore,FCH heav

260、y-duty trucks offer reduction potential for other pollutants,such as the avoidance of NOX and a reduction of particulate matter,e.g.by using regenerative braking.In addition,zero-emission FCH heavy-duty trucks contribute towards the reduction of health-and environment-related costs.Demonstrating suc

261、h broader economic,environmental and social benefits of a truck industry fuelled by green hydrogen will help to unlock its full market potential and realise synergies between different applications along the FCH value chain.Market development over the next 10 years is crucial for achieving the EU go

262、al of climate neutrality by 2050.If the growth rate of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks materialises as projected by 2030,the CO2 emission reduction target for transport for 2050 can be reached.However,new truck sales of currently mostly diesel trucks and other CO2-intensive technologies need to be r

263、eplaced by zero-emission alternatives from as early as 2030 onwards.Looking further ahead,the trajectory until 2050 would include replacing most of the diesel fleets with zero-emission vehicles,FCEV or other.This can be achieved if policy makers,OEMs,and end users enable the following drivers:Truck

264、industrialisation with lower component costs and volume ramp-up;Push to market for zero-emission trucks to ensure scaling effects for cost competitiveness and market uptake;Improved availability of infrastructure to allow for widespread deployment;Policy and regulatory regime that targets all market

265、 actors;Widespread access to affordable green hydrogen.33 3.Case studies FCH heavy-duty trucks in the transport&logistics ecosystem Fuel cell and hydrogen trucks have the potential to become the zero-emission vehicle of choice for the transport and logistics industry,as both the total cost of owners

266、hip and market potential analysis have shown.However,only few FCH trucks have been deployed yet.OEMs and technology providers are working on scaling up the technology supported by various research efforts and demonstration projects to gather operational experience,e.g.as in the H2HAUL project suppor

267、ted by the FCH JU.These projects also involve further key players for market uptake,namely the truck operators,logistics service providers and logistics users.They are deploying and operating the trucks to test for their specific requirements regarding,for instance,their performance,reliability and

268、cost.In order to include the perspective of truck operators,logistics service providers and the end customer in this study,the three previously defined heavy-duty use cases were investigated further,building on information of real-life routes provided by the studys Advisory Board members.In specific

269、 case studies,the economic and operational benefits of fuel cell and hydrogen technology within the broader transport environment were tested.The case studies cover both typical logistics operations as well as specific application scenarios.Together with the previous use cases established in the TCO

270、 analysis,the findings represent a broader view on potential FCH heavy-duty truck deployment in the EU.Hence,the case studies can serve as tangible business opportunity blueprints for the industry,while they also give a first glance at current limitations as more commercial products and an establish

271、ed hydrogen supply chain are yet to materialise.Furthermore,important technological and non-technological barriers are identified that will be addressed in chapter four of this study.The analysis of nine different case studies was conducted in order to gain a concrete perspective and apply the data

272、driven TCO analysis to case specific scenarios.They explore potential opportunities of FCH technology and assess the economic and technological feasibility of specific routes,operations and business cases22.The case studies were selected along the three defined use cases of long-haul,medium-haul and

273、 regional distribution.For the case studies,a balanced geographical spread across Europe was ensured to allow for a differentiated view on the potential of FCH technology in different national contexts.All nine case studies were developed in close collaboration with members of the studys Advisory Bo

274、ard from the transport and logistics industry to build on expert insights and case specific data.22 The TCO results are based on assumptions taken in alignment with the studys Advisory Board as elaborated in chapter 2.In addition,case-specific information was included to reflect the real-life operat

275、ions of the case study routes.34 Figure 15:Overview of geographical distribution of case studies in Europe The case study analysis identified the following key learnings for the use of FCH technology in the heavy-duty trucking and logistics industry:FCH trucks can be cost competitive with diesel tru

276、cks across most case studies and use cases in 2030,only challenged by BEV in cases of short routes on a regular schedule;FCH trucks are especially well suited for routes with a high daily range,e.g.long-haul operations across regions and countries,needs for additional power requirements,e.g.transpor

277、t of refrigerated goods,as well as high-frequency,multi-shift routes(availability of infrastructure along the route assumed);In comparison with other zero-emission alternatives,FCH trucks allow for operational performance most comparable to diesel trucks regarding daily range,refuelling time and pay

278、load capacity.While the overall range of a diesel truck can exceed 1,000 km with one tank fill,this type of performance is seldom required to fulfil a daily duty cycle and therefore does not necessarily have to be matched by FCH trucks23;For most case studies,the investigated routes and rather small

279、 fleet sizes would not create sufficient demand to build separate large(private or public)hydrogen refuelling stations.The expected volumes would be challenging to make business cases for stations attractive.This could only be realised through higher demand and thus utilisation of infrastructure.How

280、ever,while this study looked at a specific number linked to a certain route,in most cases there would be potential for higher demands if all vehicles of a depot would be converted to fuel cell and hydrogen technology.Hence,in the short-to mid-term when there will only be a limited number of FCH truc

281、ks on the roads,the setup of public infrastructure with a potential subsidy scheme would need to be in focus.24 This would allow truck operators to gain experience with FCH trucks without having to manage the higher investment costs of both truck and infrastructure at the same time.23 Information ba

282、sed on Advisory Board input.24 For a more detailed view on recommendations on future activities,see chapter 4.35 FCH technology constitutes a good fit for a wide range of heavy-duty utilisation patterns.For example,in some case studies investigated,a similar or better TCO result for battery electric

283、 trucks was found.When conducting further stakeholder interviews,however,it became clear that the trucks used on the related routes should be able to allow for flexibility in operations in order to provide a long-term added value to the truck operators fleets.This flexibility(e.g.the necessary power

284、 of the fuel cell system,the tank volume and payload considerations or busy daily operations)can be better ensured by FCH trucks.3.1 Long-haul case studies linked to Use Case I The long-haul truck segment usually involves operations of logistics companies transporting goods along long-distance route

285、s in either international or national contexts or operations of companies with own trucking fleets,e.g.in the manufacturing industry.The high mileage routes are carried out with tractor-trailer vehicle combinations,amounting to a permissible gross vehicle weight(GVW)of typically 40 tonnes.25 These l

286、arge trucks are the most important pillar of the European transport fleet,carrying approx.85%of EU road freight transport.26 The case studies developed for the long-haul routes demonstrate the wide spectrum of deployment and show that real-life operations take different forms.The analysed case studi

287、es illustrate cross-border and cross-country logistics as well as high-mileage,multi-shift regional distribution.In the case study of the Koice-Bratislava(Slovakia)cross-country route(total route length:406 km),15 trucks transport various lightweight,highly cubic goods(car parts,beverages)from the r

288、egional hub Koice in the Eastern part of the country to the capital Bratislava.The trucks then take up new load in Bratislava to either return to Koice or carry the new freight further to other countries in the EU.The operation is volume restricted due to the heterogenous size of the loads.This mean

289、s that the potential maximum payload of the trucks is most often not exceeded in terms of weight,but in volume capacity.At a first look at the TCO results,this plays in favour of a potential battery electric truck that needs to integrate the heavy additional battery suited to power the truck on a lo

290、ng route.27 However,despite similar TCO results,payload considerations between FCH and battery technology indicate that BEV would not offer the same flexibility for a much bigger payload(e.g.heavier car parts)and longer ranges(e.g.cross-EU transport),which could restrict operations.This makes FCH te

291、chnology the preferred zero-emission option,as it allows the necessary flexibility to potentially carry heavy loads for specific clients and operate longer ranges.25 The specific permissible gross vehicle weight in national transport varies from country to country,with further deviations due to regu

292、lations on certain vehicle combinations.26 A Eurostat analysis shows that in 2018,85.4%of EU road freight transport was carried out by vehicles with a maximum permissible laden weight over 30 tonnes.Eurostat.(2019).Road freight transport by vehicle characteristics.Retrieved from https:/ec.europa.eu/

293、eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Road_freight_transport_ by_vehicle_characteristics#Road_transport_by_maximum_permissible_laden_weight_and_load_capacity_of_vehicle 27 Batteries needed for long-haul routes add additional weight to the truck.In most cases,the integration of such additiona

294、l weight would compromise the overall permissible payload as the maximum weight regulations still need to be considered.36 Figure 16:Case studies for Use Case I Long haul routes with 40 t trucks In order to supply the trucks with hydrogen,public HRS are already planned along the main transport corri

295、dors in Slovakia,incl.an HRS near the depot in Koice.This push for hydrogen infrastructure is linked to the ongoing support and plans for the Central European Black Horse project.28 Access to public stations is required,because taken alone,the hydrogen demand of this specific fleet of 15 trucks woul

296、d not be sufficient to make a business case for a private refuelling station.29 The utilisation of the public HRS will be ensured by providing access to both 350 bar and 700 bar technology to service passenger vehicles,buses and trucks.In the case study in the Alsace region in France,a regional dist

297、ribution operation with 8 trucks servicing the same warehouse on three standard routes was investigated.The 28 The Black Horse project will see the development,installation and operation of a hydrogen eco-system in the Czech Republic,Hungary,Slovakia and Poland.A network of 270 HRS(for HDV,buses and

298、 passenger cars)will be set up to provide the infrastructure for the planned deployment of 10,000 FCH heavy-duty road transport vehicles.The project also foresees the installation of wind turbines,electrolyser facilities and hydrogen transport units.It is a candidate for the Important Projects of Co

299、mmon European Interest(IPCEI).29 A recommended station size and demand of at least 500 kg per day would generally be recommended by the studys Advisory Board members from the hydrogen infrastructure sector,in order to reach good scale effects.37 three routes are rather short(between 30 and 88 km rou

300、nd trip),however,the involved trucks run on a very frequent schedule for up to 24 hours/day.The route involves the collection of food in three different factories with refrigerated trailers and the storage and coordination of these goods in a regional warehouse.The refrigerated trailers have a separ

301、ate engine,currently powered by diesel,which increases the overall fuel consumption of the vehicle.This is taken into account for the alternative powertrains,with TCO results showing that FCH technology is at a clear advantage in comparison with other zero-emission technologies.FCH technology would

302、offer the necessary reach,required payload capacity and short refuelling time to allow for the almost 24-hour operation schedule.Battery electric trucks,which due to the relatively short route do not see payload reductions,would not offer the same flexibility.Especially the aspect of charging time w

303、ould be crucial in this type of operation and could not be guaranteed in a fast-charging scenario as some trucks might carry out up to ten round trips per day(depending on seasonal patterns).Also in this case,access to a public HRS close to the depot would be a good option to supply hydrogen to truc

304、ks.Besides,the logistics company linked to the case is considering the development of hydrogen hubs owned and operated by the company,including solar panels on the roof of warehouses,on-site electrolysis and in-house supply of hydrogen.If a sufficient amount of energy can be generated through this a

305、pproach(0.5 MW electrolysis,considering the investigated fleet size in this case study),this could become an important initiative towards self-supply with green hydrogen.In the case study of the cross-country route running from Zwickau to Emden in Germany,car parts are transported in a go-and-return

306、 operation.The logistics service provider first consolidates supplier goods at their hub in Zwickau and delivers them to the production plant in Emden.While this case study only considers the daily operation with two trucks(one starting on either end of the route),the operation can flexibly dispose

307、over a pool of 41 vehicles that match the requirements for this route.In the meantime,the other 39 trucks service different operations on different routes.The operation is weight restricted with a 90%average weight loading factor,offering no leeway for payload reductions in alternative powertrain ve

308、hicles.The TCO analysis showed that the FCH technology is the most cost-competitive zero-emission option on this route.This also becomes clear in the direct comparison with BEV.As the operation is linked to just-in-time delivery for automotive production,there is limited margin for different schedul

309、es.Hence,intra-day recharging of a battery would potentially not be possible.Furthermore,payload losses due to the heavy battery needed for the route have to be considered.Looking at the TCO results,diesel trucks are the cheapest option still in 2030 on a EUR/Truck basis).However,the analysis assume

310、d public refuelling for the FCH trucks due to a low hydrogen demand for two trucks only,while considering the current practice of private refuelling for the diesel counterpart.This gives the TCO for diesel trucks a cost advantage due to the lower energy/fuel prices in private refuelling operations(w

311、ithout considering additional infrastructure investments in the case of diesel).Hence,the TCO potential of FCH trucks could become more prominent if cost parity of fuels can be achieved,e.g.through higher CO2 driven taxation on diesel,increasing oil prices or a CO2-driven road toll mechanism.The Zwi

312、ckau-Emden route further highlights potential for fuel cell and hydrogen synergies,linked to applications and hydrogen supply.Due to the proximity to port operations and automotive production in the North of Germany,FCH technology could be leveraged.There is potential access to renewable energy as w

313、ell as an array of further potential FCH applications at the production site.Furthermore,the route is close to an existing H2 production site in the chemical park in Saxony(i.e.in the City of Leuna),which could be used as a nearby hydrogen source to supply the trucks.38 3.2 Medium/long-haul case stu

314、dies linked to Use Case II The medium/long-haul truck segment refers to operations similar to those described above:mid-to-long distance routes in national and cross-border(neighbouring countries)operations,often linked to wholesale.The routes are operated with larger rigid-type trucks with a permis

315、sible GVW of around 27 tonnes.30 For higher-mileage routes,an additional trailer is connected to the truck in order to transport more goods in volume-restricted operations.The case studies developed for this use case and truck type involve different shift operations with swap bodies,refrigerated equ

316、ipment and night routes.This illustrates the versatile application of this vehicle type and the different needs truck operators and logistics users have regarding performance and flexibility.Figure 17:Case studies for Use Case II Medium/long haul routes with 27 t trucks31 30 Please refer to chapter

317、2 for further information on the various truck types.31 The investigated case studies for use case II in part cover only the assumed first life period of the vehicle(approximately 5 years).This is due to the high mileage the respective trucks will accumulate over time.As it is assumed that the maxim

318、um lifetime of a vehicle amounts to 1.4 million kilometres,the investigated trucks would not be available for a full second life.For more information,please see the Annex of the Study Report.39 In the case study of the cross-country route from Hof(Germany)to Kladno(Czech Republic),a double-duty oper

319、ation for industrial groupage goods was investigated.The five trucks run on a line haulage operation at night that connects the regional depot in Hof with multiple branches in Eastern Europe.On this line,two swap bodies(one on the truck,one on a trailer)are transported from Hof to Kladno where they

320、are exchanged with swap bodies coming from branches in Eastern Europe.Both trucks then return to their depot of origin with the new load.In a second shift with another driver during the day,the same trucks are used for regional operation around the depot.Operations on both shifts are volume restrict

321、ed due to the heterogenous weights of groupage goods.Hence,there are no limitations regarding the permissible payload of 16 tonnes for both swap bodies.The TCO analysis illustrated that on this two-shift operation with a relatively high total daily range,FCH would be the best zero-emission option.Ho

322、wever,as diesel trucks are still the most cost attractive option in 2030,going for a zero-emission vehicle would still come at an extra cost by then if the circumstances do not change(e.g.energy and fuel prices).Nevertheless,the case study showed that if utilisation patterns are optimised for FCEV(e

323、.g.allowing for intra-day refuelling between shifts),FCH technology could become cost competitive.This is due to the calculated size(and corresponding cost)of the hydrogen tanks to cover the whole daily range.If less hydrogen is required along the route because more frequent refuelling is possible,b

324、oth tank size and related cost could be reduced.This possibility,however,would not work for BEV as there would not be sufficient time to charge the large battery.32 Furthermore,the lifetime of trucks is set to a maximum of kilometres that can be driven over the years.Batteries generally have a lower

325、 expected lifetime than other alternative powertrains.This means that with a high mileage,the battery lifetime is consumed earlier,and a replacement battery will be needed for the truck.Hence,this increases the cost of powertrain and affects the overall TCO of the battery electric trucks.In order to

326、 supply the trucks with hydrogen,access to a public HRS was considered,which is not yet available today.In order to ensure its commercial viability,the infrastructure would also need to be used with other applications in the area.A private refuelling station would only be cost effective if a large n

327、umber of trucks linked to the depots are replaced by FCH trucks.In the Valencia region case study in Spain,a regional depot connects various supermarket branches in the area.In a three-shift back-to-base operation with different drivers,food is delivered in trucks with refrigerated equipment.The ind

328、ividual operations of the trucks vary regarding route length and daily range,with the minimum one-way route being 30 km and the average daily range covering 300 km.The refrigeration equipment is run by an additional engine fuelled by off-road diesel,separate from the regular automotive diesel and ta

329、xed differently.This specific data was considered when including the overall consumption figures and the diesel cost.The TCO analysis showed that FCH and BEV technology both present promising zero-emission options.However,FCH technology is more favourable as the TCO for BEV implies some limitations.

330、The battery electric truck would imply a payload reduction due to the need for a larger battery to operate on all routes(maximum of 440 km daily range without the possibility for intra-day charging).Furthermore,the high mileage over lifetime is expected to require a battery replacement.This second r

331、eplaced battery would still hold a relatively high residual value at the end of the ten-year timeframe considered in this study,because it was used to power the truck only for the last two years considered.However,there still is uncertainty around the second-life use of batteries and the correspondi

332、ng value.The TCO result for BEV should be understood as implying 32 Currently,ultra-fast charging stations at multi-MW scale needed for a very fast charging process do not exist.In addition,this would considerably increase the draw on the electricity grid that cannot be guaranteed in all local condi

333、tions.40 such a limitation.The actual residual value of the battery could be lower,meaning an overall increased TCO result.The relatively limited number of trucks in this case study would not generate enough hydrogen demand for the station to be cost effective:Hence,a potential HRS in Valencia(public or private)would need to service a larger number of trucks and other applications.At the same time