1、Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction,including the U.S.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES&DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.Chuljoong Kim Junseo Park Overseas capacity expansion+cost inn

2、ovationEV Batteries(Overweight/Maintain)2022 Outlook|November 29,2021Mirae Asset Securities Research2|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesContentsSummary 3I.Demand outlook:Another good year ahead6II.Battery supply/demand analysis11III.Teslas battery supply/demand14IV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innov

3、ation17V.Issues27Investment strategy 30Global battery supply chain 31Company analysis 35Samsung SDI(006400 KS)L&F(066970 KQ)EcoPro BM(247540 KQ)Global peer valuations41Mirae Asset Securities Research3|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesBattery market boom and momentum to continueSummary Second re-rating cycle

4、 not over yet20172022-25Earnings(market conditions)Multiples(momentum)2018201920202021Boom:Demand surges1)ESS demand soars2)Cylindrical cells(non-IT applications)see robust demandDownturn:Demand plunges1)Market slows in the wake of ESS fires2)China cuts EV subsidies3)COVID-19 spreads Boom:Demand sur

5、ges1)2H20:Sales spike in Europe2)1H21:Sales spike in ChinaFirst round of battery orders Volkswagen places battery orders for MEB platform Tesla Model 3 deliveries beginAbsence of large-scale battery orders Second round of battery orders(supply scheduled for 2024);battery orders from:Ford(joint ventu

6、re with SK Innovation),GM(Ultium Cells)Tesla(NCMA;LFP batteries added)Stellantis(joint venture between LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI)BMW Gen 5/6 Volkswagen(MPE platform)Daimler Several Chinese and US startups(Rivian,Lucid)Scale of battery orders needs to be confirmedBattery makers start to ramp

7、 up capacity in Europe LGES(Poland)and Samsung SDI(Hungary)Battery materials suppliers enter first capex up-cycle(2017-18)Medium/long-term supply contracts Capacity expansion(mostly domestic,partly overseas)Capital raised for capacity additionsJan.-Apr.2020:Second round of battery materials orders M

8、edium/long-term contracts(supply scheduled for 2020-23)Materials makers announce capacity ramp-up plans throughout 2020 and raise funding in relation to supply contractsSep.2021-2023:Third round of battery materials orders Large-scale contracts for supply in 2024 and beyond Additional overseas capac

9、ity expansion to fulfill contractsFirst re-rating cycleBoom likely to continue1)US EV sales to rise sharply 2)Sales in other countries to see full-fledged growth Revenue growth from expanded capacity Most suppliers fail to exhibit meaningful growth due to downturnSecond re-rating cycleMirae Asset Se

10、curities Research4|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesLarge-scale capacity additions and cost savings to be the key issues in 2022Summary Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationKeyword 1:Overseas capacity expansion Overseas capex set to surge Cost savings essentialKeyword 2:Cost innovation Overseas capex

11、set to surge Cost savings essentialIssues1)LG Energy Solution IPO2)ESS marketMaterials innovationProcess innovationImproving cost control:Vertical integration,metal recovery,etc.-Profitability strategies to recoup capex per unitAccelerating road map for next-gen technology:silicon-based anode materi

12、als,new electrolyte additives(LiFSI),etc.-Surge in raw material prices amid market boom accelerating adoption of new(alternative)materialsGradual innovation in battery cell/material processes-Dry coating process to become a game changerExpansion in the US for existing customers(Korean battery makers

13、)Top-three Korean battery makers ramp up investments in the US-LG Energy Solution(GM,Stellantis,etc.),Samsung SDI(Stellantis,etc.),SK Innovation(Ford,etc.)-Korean battery materials suppliers to increase overseas capex-Most overseas projects to be in the form of joint ventures to reduce capex burden

14、Capacity expansion in Europe/US to supply to new customers(battery makers)-Teslas efforts to manufacture its own battery cells creation of new value chains-Gradual ramp-ups for new European customers,including Northvolt-Automakers(e.g.,Volkswagen)beginning to invest in battery technologyExpansion in

15、 the US and Europe for new customersLG Energy Solution IPOESS market status checkKorean battery makers are undervalued relative to CATL and thus deserve attention-Fair value estimates:W116tr for LG Energy Solution,W76tr for Samsung SDI,W20tr for SK InnovationESS market growth to be higher in 2022(+7

16、1%YoY)than in 2021 Mirae Asset Securities Research5|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesElectric vehicle(EV)penetration is the key share price variable for the battery industrySummary Demand still the key driver of battery up-cycleGlobal X Lithium&Battery Tech ETF vs.global EV penetrationSource:Bloomberg,Mirae

17、 Asset Securities ResearchGlobal X China EV and Battery ETF vs.global EV penetrationSource:Bloomberg,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchTiger Secondary Cell ETF vs.global EV penetrationSource:WISEfn,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchTiger KRX Secondary Battery K-New Deal ETF vs.global EV penetrationSource:

18、WISEfn,Mirae Asset Securities Research03691215010,00020,00030,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/211/227/22Tiger Secondary Cell ETF(L)Global EV penetration(R)(W)(%)0369121505,00010,00015,00020,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/211/227/22Tiger KRX Second Battery K-New Deal ETF(L)Global EV penetration(R)

19、(W)(%)036912150204060801001201/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/211/227/22Global X Lithium&Battery Tech ETF(L)Global EV penetration(R)(US$)(%)0369121507142128351/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/211/227/22Global X China EV and Battery ETF(L)Global EV penetration(R)(US$)(%)Mirae Asset Securities Research6|2022

20、 Outlook EV Batteries0246810121/177/171/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/21BEVPHEVHEV(%)BEV penetration is surging1)Sales of platform models on the rise2)Penetration rises amid chip shortage02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00018192021F22FNorth AmericaEuropeChinaOther(000 units)2022 EV sales volume forecasts:+83%f

21、or North America+142%for other markets+41%for China+34%for Europe2022 EV sales volume forecasts:9.32mn(+48%YoY)battery EVs(BEVs)and plug-in hybrid EVs(PHEVs);penetration to reach 10.6%2.84mn units in Europe(+34%YoY;15%penetration)and 4.6mn units in China(+41%YoY;18%)1.2mn units in the US(+83%YoY;6%)

22、and 720,000 units in other countries(+142%YoY;3%)EV sales growth will likely accelerate in underpenetrated markets(the US and other countries).By EV segment,we expect the sales mix of BEVs to increase rapidly.Solid demand expected for 2022I.Demand outlook:Another good year aheadDemand growth to be s

23、trongest in North America and other markets in 2022Source:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchSales mix of BEVs starting to surge battery demand outgrowing EV demandSource:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchMirae Asset Securities Research7|2022 Outlook EV Batteries4.2%7.5%10.6%15.2%22.9

24、%27.4%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002021F22F23F24F25FNorth America(L)Europe(L)China(L)Other(L)EV penetration(R)(000 units)Global EV market outlook2023:14mn units,15.2%penetration2025:25.4mn units,27.4%penetrationWe revised up our EV penetration forecasts to 15%

25、(from 11%)for 2023 and 27%(from 21%)for 2025.1)Accelerating technological innovation:LFP batteries,battery recycling,silicon-based anode materials,new electrolyte additives(LiFSI),etc.2)Penetration forecasts raised to reflect increased visibility of US subsidies3)US and Chinese start-ups(new entrant

26、s)to ramp up EV sales4)EV production to increase amid automotive chip shortages(sales of conventional cars to plunge)Raising our 2025 EV penetration forecast to 27%Medium/long-term EV(BEV+PHEV)sales volume forecast;raising 2025 penetration forecast from 21%to 27%Source:Mirae Asset Securities Researc

27、hI.Demand outlook:Another good year aheadMirae Asset Securities Research8|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesIn 2022,we expect the US and other marketswhere EV penetration this year stood at 3.5%and 1.3%,respectivelyto drive battery demand.Subsidy payments will likely increase sharply in the US and other mark

28、ets starting in 2022.In Europe,EV penetration jumped from 5%to 17%in just six months after subsidies were expanded in 2H20.EV demand will likely rise more rapidly than expected if the US Senate passes the Build Back Better Act(EV subsidies of up to US$12,500).US/other markets to be key drivers of de

29、mand in 2022US EV(BEV+PHEV)market outlook:Rapid growth expected after subsidy paymentsSource:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchEV penetration in Europe more than triples one year after subsidies were expanded in 2H20Source:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchI.Demand outlook:Another go

30、od year ahead05101520050,000100,000150,000200,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/211/227/22Sales volume(L)Penetration(R)(Units)(%)EV penetration to surge with subsidy payments;avg.monthly sales of over 100,000 EVs expected in 2022 051015200100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0001/187/181/197/191/20

31、7/201/217/21Sales volume(L)Penetration(R)(Units)(%)Europe increases EV subsidies in 2H20(5%penetration)Mirae Asset Securities Research9|2022 Outlook EV Batteries0510152005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/21Sales volume(L)Penetration(R)(Units)(%)0510152002,0

32、004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/21Sales volume(L)Penetration(R)(Units)(%)0510152005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/21Sales volume(L)Penetration(R)(Units)(%)0510152001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/2

33、17/21Sales volume(L)Penetration(R)(Units)(%)Demand has only begun to rise in some countriesKorea:EV sales volume and penetrationSource:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchNew Zealand:EV sales volume and penetrationSource:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchAustralia:EV sales volume and p

34、enetrationSource:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIndia:EV sales volume and penetrationSource:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchI.Demand outlook:Another good year aheadMirae Asset Securities Research10|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesAutomotive chip shortages are hastening the transition a

35、way from conventional vehicles.In Europe and China,sales of diesel/gasoline-powered vehicles have plunged since 2Q21 as chip shortages have worsened.Persistent supply-side risks could widen the gap between start-ups(including Tesla)and legacy OEMs.Supply-side risks such as COVID-19(2020)and auto chi

36、p shortages(2021)have helped boost EV penetration.Production of conventional cars to decline faster amid automotive chip shortageDeclining production of conventional vehiclesSource:Company data,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchEV penetration to accelerate amid automotive chip shortageSource:EV-Volumes

37、,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchI.Demand outlook:Another good year aheadDetailsHMC Conventional model sales in Europe to end in 2035 Sales mix of EVs to reach 80%by 2040Genesis All new models to run on batteries/fuel cells from 2025 Sales target of 400,000 zero-emission vehicles in 2030GM To introdu

38、ce 30 BEV models and spend US$27bn on R&D by 2025 All Cadillac models to go fully electric by 2030 To phase out gas/diesel engines by 2035Mercedes-Benz To go all-electric by 2030Volvo Half of global volume to be electric and the rest hybrid by 2024 Go all-electric by 2030Volkswagen Launch 75 EVs by

39、2029 Half of sales to be EVs by 2030 End conventional vehicle sales in Europe by 2035BMW Sell 10mn BEVs by 2030Ford To go all-electric in Europe by 2030Honda Fuel cell/electric vehicles to account for 20%of sales and hybrid 80%by 2030 Go electric/fuel cell-only by 20406070809010002,0004,0006,0008,00

40、010,0001/187/181/197/191/207/201/217/211/227/22ICE vehicle sales volume(L)ICE vehicle penetration(R)(000 units)(%)Conventional vehicle sales volume and mix have plunged since 2Q21 as auto chip shortages have worsenedMirae Asset Securities Research11|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesBattery supply to remain

41、tight,with the oversupply ratio likely falling from 12%in 2022 to 1%in 2023 and 2%in 2025 Demand(2022F):560GWh(assumptions:9.32mn EVs sold annually;battery capacity of 60kWh per vehicle)Supply(2022F):635GWh(avg.capacity utilization assumptions:90%for top six suppliers,10%for others)Given the time re

42、quired for R&D,capacity expansion,and product approval,we do not expect to see any meaningful new competition until the start of 2024.Assuming a utilization rate of 70%for new entrants,battery shortages will likely continue into 2025.EV battery shortage to worsenII.Battery supply/demand analysisGlob

43、al EV battery supply/demand analysisSource:EV-Volumes,SNE Research,industry data,Mirae Asset Securities Research64.2 38.2 10.3-0.4-2.8 0.0-2002040608010005001,0001,5002,0002021F22F23F24F25FDemand(L)Supply(R)Oversupply ratio(R)(GWh)(%)Shortage to worsen as demand continues growingMirae Asset Securiti

44、es Research12|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesEV battery production capacity outlook by companyLG Energy Solution:EV battery capacity outlook Source:EV-Volumes,SNE Research,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchSamsung SDI:EV battery capacity outlook Source:EV-Volumes,SNE Research,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchS

45、K Innovation:EV battery capacity outlook Source:EV-Volumes,SNE Research,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchCATL:EV battery capacity outlookSource:EV-Volumes,SNE Research,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchII.Battery supply/demand analysis010020030040050020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FChinaChina(JV)EU(GWh)0501

46、0015020025020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FKoreaChinaEuropeUS(GWh)010020030040050020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FEV polymerEV cylindrical(GWh)05010015020020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FEV prismaticEV cylindrical(GWh)Mirae Asset Securities Research13|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesII.Battery supply/demand analysi

47、sCopper foil shortage to worsen;margins to improve full swing as both ASP and supply increaseSeparator supply/demand situation to normalize;profitability to return to normal levels in 1H22 Supply/demand conditions to tighten furtherEV-use copper foil demand/supply analysisSource:SNE Research,industr

48、y data,Mirae Asset Securities Research-40-20020406002004006008001,0002021F22F23F24F25FEV-use copper foil demand(L)EV-use copper foil supply(L)Oversupply ratio(R)(000 tonnes)(%)Mirae Asset Securities Research14|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesWe forecast Teslas sales volume to reach 1.45mn units in 2022 and

49、 4.14mn units in 2025.Based on battery capacity,this translates to 63GWh in 2022 and 331GWh in 2025.We forecast 2025 battery supplier shares within Tesla to be 27%for LG Energy Solution,23%for Panasonic,23%for CATL,and 22%for in-house cells.We expect the share of LFP batteries for mid/low-end EVs to

50、 surge to 30%in 2025.The pace of expansion in the LFP share should gradually slow following the mass production of 4680 cells.Battery supply/demand dynamics III.Teslas battery supply/demandTeslas medium/long-term battery supply outlook Source:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchLFP share withi

51、n Tesla to rise to 30%in the medium/long term Source:Mirae Asset Securities Research05010015020025030035040020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FLG Energy SolutionPanasonicCATLTeslaOther(GWh)02040608010005010015020025030035040020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FHigh-nickel(L)LFP(L)LFP%(R)(GWh)(%)Mirae Asset Secur

52、ities Research15|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesTeslas battery materials demand forecasts Tesla-related cathode demand forecasts Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchTesla-related copper foil demand forecasts Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchTesla-related separator demand forecasts Source:Mirae Asse

53、t Securities ResearchTesla-related electrolyte demand forecasts Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII.Teslas battery supply/demand23 38 58 87 121 162 02040608010012014016018020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FCopper foil demand(000 tonnes)293 537 823 1,242 1,718 2,306 05001,0001,5002,0002,50020202021F

54、2022F2023F2024F2025FSeparator demand(mn m2)33 63 101 161 258 364 010020030040020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FElectrolyte demand(000 tonnes)52 91 140 189 266 371 4 27 68 97 144 180 020040060020202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FHigh-nickel(1,400 tonnes 1GWh)LFP(1,800 tonnes 1GWh)(000 tonnes)Mirae Asset Securit

55、ies Research16|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesTeslas battery cell/materials demand forecastsSource:Mirae Asset Securities Research20202021F2022F2023F2024F2025FTesla shipments(000 units)500 897 1,448 2,300 3,125 4,140 Battery capacity per unit(kWh)65 70 70 70 75 80 Tesla battery demand(GWh)33 63 101 161 23

56、4 331 Battery supplier breakdown(capacity)LG Energy Solution8 20 40 60 80 100 Panasonic29 45 45 45 65 85 CATL2 15 35 50 70 85 Tesla(in-house)15 30 45 80 Other3 4 10 15 Total39 80 138 189 270 365 Battery supplier share(%)LG Energy Solution21 25 29 32 30 27 Panasonic74 56 33 24 24 23 CATL5 19 25 26 26

57、 23 Tesla(in-house)0 0 11 16 17 22 Other0 0 2 2 4 4 Total100 100 100 100 100 100 Cathode materials breakdown(GWh)High-nickel37 65 100 135 190 265 LFP2 15 38 54 80 100 Cathode materials demandHigh-nickel(1GWh 1,400 tonnes)51,800 91,000 140,000 189,000 266,000 371,000 LFP(1GWh 1,800 tonnes)3,600 27,00

58、0 67,500 97,200 144,000 180,000 Cathode material share(%)High-nickel95 81 73 71 70 73 LFP5 19 27 29 30 27 Tesla-bound copper foil demand(tonnes)22,750 37,674 57,775 87,182 120,568 161,859 Copper foil consumption(kg/kWh)700 600 570 542 514 489 Tesla-bound separator demand(mn m2)293 537 823 1,242 1,71

59、8 2,306 Separator consumption(m2/kWh)9.0 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.3 7.0 Tesla-bound electrolyte demand(tonnes)32,500 62,790 101,360 161,000 257,813 364,320 Electrolyte consumption(kg/kWh)1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,100 III.Teslas battery supply/demandMirae Asset Securities Research17|2022 Outlook EV Batter

60、iesSupplies for battery contracts forged in 2021 to early 2022(worth W160tr)will begin in 2024.Battery cell/materials producers will need to begin expanding overseas capacity in 2022 in order to ensure deliveries in 2024.Generally,once battery cell orders are placed,capacity plans are confirmed.This

61、 is followed by the conclusion of long-term battery materials supply contracts and then by materials capacity expansions.Korean battery materials suppliers upcoming capacity expansion cycle will likely be focused on Europe and the US.Keyword 1:Overseas capacity expansion IV.2022:Overseas capacity ex

62、pansion+cost innovationSummary of battery projects Source:EV-Volumes,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchBattery cell and materials contract flowSource:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchProjectValue(Wtr)2021 biddingMaterialscontractsGMBolt32.0 CompletedPlannedStellantisVDA 59028.0 In progressVWMPE20.0 In pr

63、ogressDaimlerEB58013.0 In progressDaimlerEB56010.0 In progressDaimlerEB4xx10.0 In progressBMWGen57.5 In progressBMWGen68.0 In progressHMC/KiaSV/CT8.0 In progressHMC/KiaME/MV2.5 In progressPorschePPE 416.0 In progressFordBEV 2025Estimated at over W70trCompletedEcoPro BM wins contract in Sep.FordNew B

64、 seg.CompletedRenaultBEV M3.5 CompletedPlannedHMC/KiaME2.5 In progressBattery cell biddingChoose cell supplier&place orderCell capacity ramp-up&fundingConclude medium/long-term material contractMaterial capacity ramp-up and fundingBegin suppliesUsually takes six to 12 months(some variation depending

65、 on project)Supplies begin two years laterFordUS batterybiddingEarly 20212Q21SK Innovation bidding,JV announcement3Q21SK Innovationwins largecontractSep.21EcoPro BM winsW10tr contract(2024-26)Nov.21EcoPro BM announces overseas capacity ramp-upMirae Asset Securities Research18|2022 Outlook EV Batteri

66、esCost innovation will be a crucial factor in capacity additions intended for supplies beginning in 2024.EBITDA/capex(per unit)will be an important indicator of market size from 2024.Battery cell and materials suppliers will likely focus on cost innovation over existing processes.We believe cost inn

67、ovation will largely consist of:1)material cost savings;and 2)process cost savings.Keyword 2:Cost innovationMaterials and process cost innovation critical to upcoming capacity additions Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchCost innovation via materials and process cost savings to accelerateSupplies

68、 for current battery projects to begin in 2024;cost innovation critical to capacity expansion Cost innovationMaterials innovationBattery recycling(metal recovery)Next-gen materials1)Silicon-based anode materials2)New electrolyte additives(LiFSI)Vertical integrationProcess innovationDry coatingIV.202

69、2:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationMirae Asset Securities Research19|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesWe expect materials cost innovation to gather steam on the back of battery recycling and vertical integration.Technology innovation is accelerating,led by Koreas cathode materials value chain.Batt

70、ery recycling(metal recovery)precursors and lithium hydroxide cathode materials manufacturing Materials costinnovation:Battery recyclingEcoPro BMs ongoing vertical integration of its cathode materials value chainSource:EcoPro BM,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchL&Fs ongoing vertical integration of its

71、 cathode materials value chainSource:L&F,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationPrecursors:CNGR(300919 CH)Lithium hydroxide:L&F(066970 KQ)Battery recycling:Redwood Materials(unlisted)L&F(066970 KQ)LG Energy Solution(unlisted)Tesla(TSLA US)Tesla(TSLA US)Raw

72、materialsCathode materialsBattery cellsEVsJVs with global players,including Redwood Materials-LG Energy Solution:2025F EV cylindrical battery capacity of 120GWh revenue of W4.5tr(NCMA cathode materials)-Redwood Materials:2025 production target of 100GWh(cathode materials:W4tr)and 2030 target of500GW

73、h(cathode materials:W18tr)-Cost savings from 1)the use of recycled metal and 2)vertical integration of lithium hydroxideHoldcoGlobalEst.Oct.19982,100 employees(31%)Environmental services(47%)Battery recycling(90%)High-purity nitrogen/oxygen(48%)Cathode materials(51%)Precursors(97%)Lithium hydroxide(

74、60%)NCA(100%)Global investmentMirae Asset Securities Research20|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesSince battery recycling technology has yet to be standardized,cost-saving estimates vary widely.Major US recycling firms are aiming to cut metal purchasing costs by 10-30%in the medium/long term.A 10%reduction i

75、n metal purchasing costs would improve COGS by 8%for cathode materials and 2%for batteries(not adjusting for other expenses).Assuming recovery and transportation costs,high-nickel battery costs should improve faster than LFP battery costs.Recycling should accelerate the decline in costs/prices of ca

76、thode materials and batteries.Materials costinnovation:Battery recyclingUse of recycled metal to improve cathode materials/battery cost ratiosSource:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchCost savings from use of recycled metal greater for high-nickel batteries than for LFP batteriesSource:iScience,Mirae As

77、set Securities ResearchIV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationPrice and cost per kWh 60kWh battery(based on a single EV)NotesBattery price/kWh(US$)130 7,800 Cathode material price/kWh(US$)35 2,100 Assumed 1.4kg/kWh,US$25/kgCosts of major metals in cathode materials28 1,680 Major metals a

78、re 80%of cathode material costs Cathode material cost savings(US$)Metal purchasing cost savings:5%1.4 84.0 10%2.8 168.0 20%5.6 336.0 Cathode COGS improvement(%)Metal purchasing cost savings:5%4.0 10%8.0 20%16.0 Battery COGS improvement(%)Metal purchasing cost savings:5%1.1 10%2.2 20%4.3 Mirae Asset

79、Securities Research21|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesAdoption of silicon-based anode materials is likely to increase,starting with Tesla in 2022-23.The need for silicon anode materials is higher for LFP and NCA batteries,which face limitations in energy density improvements from cathode materials.While co

80、st reduction is not the direct focus of silicon anode materials technology,such materials can contribute to overall market growth by enhancing the performance of LFP batteries(which are supporting demand for low/mid-end vehicles).Materials costinnovation:Silicon anode materials Silicon anode materia

81、l market forecastsSource:Industry data,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchDriving range and charging time depending on silicon anodecontentSource:Industry data,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovation0.40.60.91.31.92.73.64.86.58.711.60.20.40.61.11.83.00481216202

82、1F22F23F24F25F26F27F28F29F30FLow-siliconHigh-silicon(US$bn)Silicon11%9%15%13%17%21%25%28%32%36%41%00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91 1hLongShortLongDriving range30mCharging time15mShort400km500km600km800km10mGraphiteGraphite+SiliconSi 10%Si 15%Si 30%Lithium metals,etc.Mirae Asset Securities Research22|20

83、22 Outlook EV BatteriesMajor global suppliers related to anode materials Source:Industry data,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationNatural graphiteArtificial graphiteSiOxCoated Si-CPorous Si-CMirae Asset Securities Research23|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesLiPF

84、6(used in electrolytes)has seen prices soar to US$90/kg as of September.The price surge has been due to the slow pace of LiPF6 capacity additions relative to surging demand.With capacity additions currently picking up pace,supply should begin to normalize in 2H22.Rising prices are intensifying cost

85、pressures,as LiPF6 accounts for 40%of the cost of electrolytes,which in turn constitute 10%of the cost of batteries.Against this backdrop,we anticipate faster-than-expected demand growth for LiFSI(next-generation lithium salt),which is likely to enter a structural up-cycle.Materials cost innovation:

86、LiFSI Rising LiPF6 prices are intensifying battery cost pressuresSource:Wind,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchLiFSI to enter structural demand cycle Source:Chunbo,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchLithium saltChunbo(next-gen)LiFSI(F)Improves battery safety and life;limits discharge at low tempExisting(st

87、andard)LiPF6Small IT battery lithium salt IV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovation0204060801004/1610/164/1710/174/1810/184/1910/194/2010/204/2110/21(US$/kg)Rising LiPF6 prices are intensifying battery cost pressures Growing need for new alternatives300 720 1,000 6,000 21,000 05,00010,0001

88、5,00020,00025,000192021F23F26FChunbo:Annual F-electrolyte capacity outlook(Tonnes)Mirae Asset Securities Research24|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesDry coating can reduce costs by at least 15%compared to wet coating.The process does not rely on:1)NMP solvents,PVDF binders,and CVC/SRC binders;or 2)an 80-100

89、m dry process.However,the technology requires the development of special binder materials(Teflon binder)and equipment.Fraunhofer IWS and Tesla(which uses Maxwells technology)are working on developing dry coating equipment.Cost comparison:Dry vs.wet slurry processSource:“Solvent-free additive manufac

90、turing of electrodes for Li-ion batteries”(2019),Mirae Asset Securities ResearchSpace comparison:Wet coating vs.DRYtraec coatingSource:Fraunhofer IWS,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchBattery 1Battery 2Labor(hours/year)Machines(US$mn)Labor(hours/year)Machines(US$mn)Wetprocess511,871109.85595,918139.1Dr

91、yprocess441,02194.28499,600112.61Costefficiency21.6%14.2%16.2%19.0%Process innovation:Dry coatingIV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationMirae Asset Securities Research25|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesMaxwells dry coating processSource:Maxwell Technologies,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchDry ba

92、ttery electrode(DBE)coating technology is similar to conventional laminating processes.Process flow:Combination of active material with Teflon binder rolling film formation lamination of film onto current collectorProduction efficiency of Maxwell dry coating process:2x battery life,16x footprint eff

93、iciency,15-20%cost savings compared to latest wet process,1.5x energy density based on NCM 811,better charge/discharge properties,and less use of toxic solvents Fraunhofer IWSs DRYtraec coating process Source:Fraunhofer IWS,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchProcess innovation:Dry coatingIV.2022:Oversea

94、s capacity expansion+cost innovationMirae Asset Securities Research26|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesBattery process flowSource:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchAssemblyFormationElectrodesIV.2022:Overseas capacity expansion+cost innovationMirae Asset Securities Research27|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesOver the p

95、ast year,domestic battery stocks have underperformed Chinese rival CATL.The weakness was largely the result of:1)company split/IPO issues;and 2)a series of quarterly allowances related to recalls.Following LG Energy Solutions IPO,we expect the valuations of Korean battery makers to normalize.We esti

96、mate the value of LG Energy Solution(unlisted)at W116tr,Samsung SDI at W76tr,and SK On(unlisted)at W20tr.Our valuations are based on 20 x EV/EBITDA(40%discount to CATL)our 2023 battery EBITDA forecasts.Three big domestic battery stocks to recover to fair valuation V.Issues:1)Valuations to normalize

97、following LGES IPO Fair valuation of big three battery stocks(based on 20 x 2023F EBITDA)Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchEV/EBITDA multiple gap between CATL and Samsung SDISource:WISEfn,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchLG Energy Solution(unlisted)Samsung SDI(006400)SK On(unlisted)2023 battery EB

98、ITDA estimateBattery business fair valuationW5.8trW3.8trW1.0trW116trW76trW20tr0501001502002501/197/191/207/201/217/211/2212MF EV/EBITDA gap(%)Samsung SDI vs.CATL12-month forward EV/EBITDA gap has widened to record levels Samsung SDI undervaluationAvg.premium:107%Samsung SDI overvaluationMirae Asset

99、Securities Research28|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesWe forecast the global ESS market to grow from 28GWh in 2021 to 48GWh in 2022.Although demand increased sharply YoY in 2021,many projects were delayed by logistics issues.Earnings have been sluggish across the ESS value chain.In 2022,however,we expect r

100、evenue and profits to grow.Investments in clean energy infrastructure have continued since the pandemic,especially in Europe and the US.Looking at 2022 alone,ESS growth should outpace that of EVs V.Issues:2)ESS to outpace EVs in 2022Global ESS market is forecast to grow 71%YoY in 2022 Source:Wood Ma

101、ckenzie,Mirae Asset Securities Research25GWh of ESS-related projects commenced in 2H21Source:Energy Storage News,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchDateCompanyScale(MWh)UserCountry10/29Energy Vault1,600 DG FuelsSwitzerland10/29StatkraftTotal Eren1,000 Ministry of National AssetsChile10/29Saft1,000 Natio

102、nal Wealth FundKazakhstan10/22Ameresco2,150 Southern California EdisonUS10/21Penso Power3,000 BW GroupUK10/19Huawei1,300 Red Sea ProjectSaudi Arabia10/1ESS2,000 SB Energy(SoftBank)US9/29Tesla6,000 ArevonUSOther6,642 Total24,692 1028485661740204060802021F22F23F24F25F(GWh)2022 global ESS market growth

103、 forecast at 71%YoYDemand was strong in 2021,but earnings were hampered by logistics issues Mirae Asset Securities Research29|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesThe levelized cost of energy(LCOE)of renewables is continuing to fall.For solar power,LCOE is down 90%compared to 2009.We expect demand for renewable

104、s-plus ESS to continue to grow.Given that ESS(unlike EVs)face no space limitations,we believe LFP batteries will rapidly gain ground in the ESS market.Renewable energy LCOE continuing to decline LCOE by energy source;solar has seen the biggest declineSource:Lazard,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchLCOE

105、 by country(solar vs.gas)Source:Lazard,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchV.Issues:2)ESS to outpace EVs in 2022010020030040020092021(US$/MWh)163481573920044209542084214630124281513019717318312624013725316324613118599159108196180050100150200250300EuropeJapanSouth AfricaIndiaBrazilAustraliaUSLCOE(US$/MWh)

106、=Solar PV=Gas peakerMirae Asset Securities Research30|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesInvestment strategy Broad exposure to EV value chainSource:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchGlobal commoditized materials:Intensifying shortage(Copper foil and separators)LFP demand growing faster than market expectations(C

107、hinese value chain,Korean commoditized materials)ChunboEcoPro BMIljinMaterialsSKCSKIETW-ScopeBTRDaejoo ElectronicTinciSolusYunnan MaterialsPanasonicSumitomoMetal MiningCATLShanshanEaspringCNGRCapchemBYDEcoProLGChemL&FTesla exposure:Strongest demand visibilityAccelerating material cost innovation:Bat

108、tery recycling,silicon anodes,new electrolyte additives(LiFSI)Mirae Asset Securities Research31|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesGlobal battery supply chainGlobal battery supply chain OEMs(EV production)Battery cell makersFirst tier(pure EV)TeslaSecond tier(pure EV)NIOXPengLi AutoLucidOEMsVolkswagenRenault-

109、NissanFordGMBMWPSAVolvoStellantisHMC/KiaToyotaTataBYDSAICFirst tierLG Energy SolutionSamsung SDISK InnovationPanasonicCATLBYDSecond tierEVE EnergyGotion High-TechNorthvoltOEMs(in-house production plans)Tesla(Battery Day)Volkswagen(Power Day)NIO(Power Day)OEMs are formulating in-house battery product

110、ion plansCore materialsCathode materialsAnode materialsElectrolyte solutionsSeparatorsFirst tierEcoPro BML&FPOSCO ChemicalUmicoreSMMNichiaSecond tierCOSMO AM&TEaspringShanshanXTCIn-house production by battery cell makersSpecialty materialsCommodity materialsOtherCopper foilSpecialty materialsDiffere

111、ntiation comes from material composition;meeting customers specific needsMore than 25 suppliers globallyBTRHitachiShanshanZichenMitsubishiPutailaiNippon CarbonSGL CarbonPOSCO ChemicalElectrolyte solutionsMitsubishiUbeEnchemDongwhaSoulbrainCapchemCentralTinciMore than 50 suppliers globallyMore than 5

112、0 suppliers globallyCommodity materialsProductivity and cost competitiveness are key to margins;prices could rise in the event of a global supply shortageElectrolyte/additivesMitsubishiChunboDongwhaDuksan TechopiaChemtrosFirst tierSKIETAsahi KaseiToraySemcorpSecond tierW-ScopeSumitomoSeniorSinomaMor

113、e than 25 suppliers globallyFirst tierSK NexilisIljin MaterialsCCPNuodeWasonSecond tierFurukawaNippon DenkaiSolus Korea ZincMore than 25 suppliers globallyMirae Asset Securities Research32|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesElectrodesMixingCoatingCalen-daringSlittingSamsung SDI,LG Energy SolutionThree Korean

114、battery makersLG Energy Solution,Samsung SDISK OnLG Energy Solution,Samsung SDIGlobal battery supply chain Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchCISTSIYunsung F&CJeil Machine(unlisted)PNTPNTCISPNTCISSamsung SDI,LG Energy SolutionThree Korean battery makersSamsung SDI,LG Energy SolutionThree Korean b

115、attery makersProcessSuppliersCustomersEquipmentMirae Asset Securities Research33|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesPhilopticsMplusYouil Energy TechDE&TmPLUSPhilopticsDA TechnologyHana TechnologymPLUSCanon,LG affiliatesDA TechnologyHana TechnologySamsung SDISK OnSK OnLG Energy SolutionSK onSamsung SDILG Energ

116、y SolutionSK OnLG Energy SolutionLG Energy SolutionThree Korean battery makersThree Korean battery makersGlobal battery supply chain Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchProcessSuppliersCustomersEquipmentAssemblyNotchingStackingTab weldingPackagingMirae Asset Securities Research34|2022 Outlook EV B

117、atteriesFormationAuto-mation/otherWonik PNEKapjinSamji Electronics Hana TechnologyAproDaeboMagneticCowin TechAvacoSK On,Samsung SDISamsung SDI,LG Energy SolutionLG Energy SolutionKorean/Chinese cathode materials companiesSK On,Samsung SDILG Energy SolutionSamsung SDISK On,Samsung SDIFormationIron re

118、movalAutomationGlobal battery supply chain Source:Mirae Asset Securities ResearchProcessSuppliersCustomersEquipmentSFASK OnMirae Asset Securities Research35|2022 Outlook EV Batteries(Maintain)Target price(12M,W)Current price(11/26/21,W)1,275Consensus OP(21F,Wbn)EPS growth(21F,%)P/E(21F,x)Market P/E(

119、21F,x)KOSPIMarket cap(Wbn)(Dec.)2018201920202021F2022F2023FShares outstanding(mn)Revenue(Wbn)9,15810,09711,29513,89017,76422,814Free float(%)OP(Wbn)7154626711,2751,7932,363Foreign ownership(%)OP margin(%)7.84.65.99.210.110.4Beta(12M)NP(Wbn)7013575751,3021,7032,23952-week low(W)EPS(W)9,9625,0668,1661

120、8,49824,19631,81752-week high(W)ROE(%)6.02.94.59.310.712.5(%)1M6M12MP/E(x)22.046.676.938.529.522.4Absolute-4.411.929.6P/B(x)1.31.33.33.22.92.6Relative-0.820.815.9Div.yield(%)0.50.40.20.10.10.1Notes:Under consolidated K-IFRS;NP is attributable to owners of the parentSource:Samsung SDI,Mirae Asset Sec

121、urities Research estimates126.5OP(21F,Wbn)1,22846.01.33533,000817,00038.510.32,936.4449,0297072.8Buy1,300,000713,000Expected return82%70809010011012013014015016020.1121.221.521.821.11Samsung SDIKOSPIInvestment pointsWe maintain our Buy rating on Samsung SDI with a target price of W1,300,000(based on

122、 an operating value of W86tr and an equity stake value of W5tr).For the battery business,we applied a target EV/EBITDA of 20 x(40%discount to CATLs multiple)to our 2023F EBITDA.With the start of Stellantis orders,we expect to see steady capacity ramp-ups and order backlog growth.Samsung SDI has been

123、 delivering the most stable earnings among domestic battery cell makers,with its order backlog likely to grow at a faster rate than those of domestic rivals.Risk factorsSlow capacity expansion relative to global rivalsOrder backlog steadily expandingSamsung SDI(006400 KS)Mirae Asset Securities Resea

124、rch36|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesIncome statement(summarized)Balance sheet(summarized)Key valuation metrics/ratios(Wbn)20202021F2022F2023F(Wbn)20202021F2022F2023F20202021F2022F2023FRevenue11,29513,89017,76422,814Current assets5,6578,11311,31912,451P/E(x)76.938.529.522.4Cost of revenue8,91410,53313,087

125、17,049Cash&equivalents1,5462,8634,5964,219P/CF(x)25.819.915.911.5GP2,3813,3574,6775,765AR&other receivables1,7232,2002,7773,401P/B(x)3.33.22.92.6SG&A expenses1,7092,0822,8843,403Inventory1,8112,3122,8913,539EV/EBITDA(x)26.420.215.411.4OP(adj.)6711,2751,7932,363Other current assets5777381,0551,292EPS

126、(W)8,16618,49824,19631,817OP6711,2751,7932,363Non-current assets15,87716,83917,88220,697CFPS(W)24,35335,81744,83861,769Non-operating profit132511555724Investments in associates7,1437,2157,2878,922BPS(W)189,291219,982243,227274,093Net financial income-57-48-43-52PP&E6,1286,8297,8298,982DPS(W)1,0001,0

127、001,0001,000Net income from associates293612683793Intangible assets794725674645Dividend payout ratio(%)10.44.73.62.7Pretax profit8031,7862,3483,087Total assets21,53424,95229,20133,148Dividend yield(%)0.20.10.10.1Income tax172392516679Current liabilities4,9845,3296,4947,488Revenue growth(%)11.923.027

128、.928.4Profit from continuing opera6311,3941,8312,408AP&other payables1,3921,7772,5423,113EBITDA growth(%)33.244.328.236.8Profit from discontinued ope0000Short-term financial liabil2,4802,1322,1612,183OP growth(%)45.290.040.631.8NP6311,3941,8312,408Other current liabilities1,1121,4201,7912,192EPS gro

129、wth(%)61.2126.530.831.5Attributable to owners5751,3021,7032,239Non-current liabilities3,1924,0145,3345,946AR turnover(x)6.77.67.78.0Attributable to minority inter5692128169Long-term financial liabili1,5082,1082,6082,608Inventory turnover(x)6.46.76.87.1Total comprehensive income7681,8531,8312,408Othe

130、r non-current liabiliti1,6841,9062,7263,338AP turnover(x)12.010.69.79.7Attributable to owners7201,7931,7752,334Total liabilities8,1759,34411,82913,434ROA(%)3.06.06.87.7Attributable to minority inter48615674Equity attributable to own12,97815,13816,77318,946ROE(%)4.59.310.712.5EBITDA1,7552,5323,2454,4

131、39Capital stock357357357357ROIC(%)6.012.019.419.3FCF221-22831619Capital surplus5,0025,0025,0025,002Debt-to-equity ratio(%)61.259.968.168.1EBITDA margin(%)15.518.218.319.5Retained earnings7,4188,65310,28912,462Current ratio(%)113.5152.2174.3166.3OP margin(%)5.99.210.110.4Minority interests38147059976

132、7Net debt-to-equity ratio(%)17.07.4-0.80.9Net margin(%)5.19.49.69.8Shareholders equity13,35915,60817,37219,713Interest coverage ratio(x)9.720.827.333.5Source:Samsung SDI,Mirae Asset Securities Research estimatesSamsung SDI(006400 KS)Mirae Asset Securities Research37|2022 Outlook EV Batteries(Maintai

133、n)Target price(12M,W)Current price(11/26/21,W)43Consensus OP(21F,Wbn)EPS growth(21F,%)P/E(21F,x)Market P/E(21F,x)KOSDAQMarket cap(Wbn)(Dec.)201920202021F2022F2023F2024FShares outstanding(mn)Revenue(Wbn)3133561,0022,3863,4435,133Free float(%)OP(Wbn)-8143182330519Foreign ownership(%)OP margin(%)-2.60.

134、34.37.69.610.1Beta(12M)NP(Wbn)-9-15112023839052-week low(W)EPS(W)-336-550463,3956,71611,00452-week high(W)ROE(%)-6.7-9.40.846.754.752.2(%)1M6M12MP/E(x)-5,055.068.734.721.2Absolute24.9174.1436.1P/B(x)3.99.839.725.314.78.7Relative25.6163.2366.1Div.yield(%)0.20.10.00.00.00.0Notes:Under consolidated K-I

135、FRS;NP is attributable to owners of the parentSource:L&F,Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates-OP(21F,Wbn)3821.41.0843,520249,3005,055.010.31,005.898,1213563.4Buy360,000233,300Expected return54%7017027037047057067020.1121.221.521.821.11L&FKOSDAQInvestment pointsWe maintain our Buy rating on L&F

136、with a target price of W360,000.Our 2024F EPS and target P/E of 33x remain unchanged.We may revisit our 2024 capacity and revenue forecasts depending on the ongoing discussions between L&F and its customers.Teslas 4680 cells will be high-nickel batteries,instead of LFP batteries,suggesting that the

137、EV makers NCMA mix will expand.In the medium to long term,L&F could diversify its exposure to Teslas supply chain via its partnership with US battery recycling company Redwood Materials.In light of the bidding schedules and medium/long-term supply contract flows,we expect L&F to continue to win mass

138、ive orders over the next year.Risk factorsIncrease in Teslas LFP exposureMajor beneficiary of Teslas growth L&F(066970 KQ)Mirae Asset Securities Research38|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesL&F(066970 KQ)Income statement(summarized)Balance sheet(summarized)Key valuation metrics/ratios(Wbn)2021F2022F2023F2024

139、F(Wbn)2021F2022F2023F2024F2021F2022F2023F2024FRevenue1,0022,3863,4435,133Current assets5307139871,544P/E(x)5,055.068.734.721.2Cost of revenue9232,1563,0484,521Cash&equivalents843143286P/CF(x)167.744.424.015.2GP79230395612AR&other receivables170252319476P/B(x)39.725.314.78.7SG&A expenses36486592Inven

140、tory254436503750EV/EBITDA(x)130.839.022.214.3OP(adj.)43182330519Other current assets22222232EPS(W)463,3956,71611,004OP43182330519Non-current assets379463516610CFPS(W)1,3925,2529,72515,329Non-operating profit-40-32-32-32Investments in associates0000BPS(W)5,8709,22315,89726,859Net financial income0000

141、PP&E358444498593DPS(W)48484848Net income from associates0000Intangible assets8765Dividend payout ratio(%)76.31.20.60.4Pretax profit3150298487Total assets9091,1771,5042,154Dividend yield(%)0.00.00.00.0Income tax1306097Current liabilities466605689937Revenue growth(%)181.5138.144.349.1Profit from conti

142、nuing opera2120238390AP&other payables175313397592EBITDA growth(%)326.7240.672.952.5Profit from discontinued ope0000Short-term financial liabil184184184184OP growth(%)4,200.0323.381.357.3NP2120238390Other current liabilities107108108161EPS growth(%)-7,280.497.863.8Attributable to owners1120238390Non

143、-current liabilities241251257272AR turnover(x)8.911.512.213.1Attributable to minority inter0000Long-term financial liabili228228228228Inventory turnover(x)5.66.97.38.2Total comprehensive income2120238390Other non-current liabiliti13232944AP turnover(x)9.710.19.810.4Attributable to owners2125247405To

144、tal liabilities7078569461,208ROA(%)0.311.517.821.3Attributable to minority inter0-5-9-15Equity attributable to own198317553942ROE(%)0.846.754.752.2EBITDA64218377575Capital stock14141414ROIC(%)5.623.534.043.6FCF-111-80142152Capital surplus161161161161Debt-to-equity ratio(%)350.3267.0169.8127.8EBITDA

145、margin(%)6.49.110.911.2Retained earnings18137374762Current ratio(%)113.7117.9143.3164.8OP margin(%)4.37.69.610.1Minority interests4444Net debt-to-equity ratio(%)153.9122.445.210.7Net margin(%)0.15.06.97.6Shareholders equity202321557946Interest coverage ratio(x)0.00.00.00.0Source:L&F,Mirae Asset Secu

146、rities Research estimatesMirae Asset Securities Research39|2022 Outlook EV Batteries(Maintain)Target price(12M,W)Current price(11/26/21,W)127Consensus OP(21F,Wbn)EPS growth(21F,%)P/E(21F,x)Market P/E(21F,x)KOSDAQMarket cap(Wbn)(Dec.)201920202021F2022F2023F2024FShares outstanding(mn)Revenue(Wbn)61685

147、51,3922,2493,5045,954Free float(%)OP(Wbn)3755127217344655Foreign ownership(%)OP margin(%)6.06.49.19.69.811.0Beta(12M)NP(Wbn)344710217227151852-week low(W)EPS(W)1,7452,2474,7317,83312,37023,65152-week high(W)ROE(%)9.311.513.514.919.929.6(%)1M6M12MP/E(x)30.475.7114.068.943.622.8Absolute30.3207.2255.1P

148、/B(x)2.98.011.09.57.95.9Relative31.1195.0208.7Div.yield(%)0.30.30.10.10.10.1Notes:Under consolidated K-IFRS;NP is attributable to owners of the parentSource:EcoPro BM,Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates110.5OP(21F,Wbn)12818.20.66148,000567,500114.010.31,005.8911,8232245.6Buy780,000539,400Expec

149、ted return45%7012017022027032037042020.1121.221.521.821.11EcoPro BMKOSDAQInvestment pointsWe maintain our Buy rating on EcoPro BM with a target price of W780,000(33x 2024F EPS).We see further upside to production capacity and revenue forecasts for 2024-25,depending on how ongoing discussions with cu

150、stomers unfold.Capacity should expand to 480,000 tonnes by end-2026,aided by capacity ramp-ups in Europe and the US.The company will continue to build a portfolio of new products,including next-gen NCA(95%nickel content),NXM,and OLO.Once new capacity comes online,metal recovery via used battery recy

151、cling should gain traction,leading to structural margin growth.Risk factorsAcceleration of LFP battery market growthLeader in global cathode materials value chainEcoPro BM(247540 KQ)Mirae Asset Securities Research40|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesEcoPro BM(247540 KQ)Income statement(summarized)Balance she

152、et(summarized)Key valuation metrics/ratios(Wbn)2021F2022F2023F2024F(Wbn)2021F2022F2023F2024F2021F2022F2023F2024FRevenue1,3922,2493,5045,954Current assets1,1341,3311,5642,488P/E(x)114.068.943.622.8Cost of revenue1,1941,9373,0415,132Cash&equivalents596511229477P/CF(x)154.737.925.913.8GP198312463822AR&

153、other receivables181276449670P/B(x)11.09.57.95.9SG&A expenses7094119167Inventory3355108311,247EV/EBITDA(x)72.237.626.213.6OP(adj.)127217344655Other current assets22345594EPS(W)4,7317,83312,37023,651OP127217344655Non-current assets5876949831,034CFPS(W)3,48714,21420,80839,080Non-operating profit2-1-3-

154、3Investments in associates0000BPS(W)49,10156,48668,40891,611Net financial income-3-2-3-3PP&E533640928976DPS(W)450450450450Net income from associates0000Intangible assets13131313Dividend payout ratio(%)9.95.93.72.0Pretax profit129216341652Total assets1,7202,0252,5483,522Dividend yield(%)0.10.10.10.1I

155、ncome tax295078150Current liabilities4115498001,248Revenue growth(%)62.861.655.869.9Profit from continuing opera100166263502AP&other payables219334545926EBITDA growth(%)75.093.246.687.9Profit from discontinued ope0000Short-term financial liabil150150151146OP growth(%)130.970.958.590.4NP100166263502O

156、ther current liabilities4265104176EPS growth(%)110.565.657.991.2Attributable to owners102172271518Non-current liabilities205215234267AR turnover(x)11.210.510.311.3Attributable to minority inter-3-5-8-16Long-term financial liabili186186186186Inventory turnover(x)5.75.35.25.7Total comprehensive income

157、100166263502Other non-current liabiliti19294881AP turnover(x)11.711.311.211.3Attributable to owners102170269513Total liabilities6167641,0341,515ROA(%)7.98.911.516.6Attributable to minority inter-2-4-6-11Equity attributable to own1,0711,2331,4952,003ROE(%)13.514.919.929.6EBITDA161311456857Capital sto

158、ck12121212ROIC(%)14.517.619.628.6FCF-136-72-268271Capital surplus808808808808Debt-to-equity ratio(%)55.860.668.375.5EBITDA margin(%)11.613.813.014.4Retained earnings2293916521,161Current ratio(%)275.8242.6195.6199.4OP margin(%)9.19.69.811.0Minority interests3328193Net debt-to-equity ratio(%)-23.7-14

159、.06.9-7.6Net margin(%)7.37.67.78.7Shareholders equity1,1041,2611,5142,006Interest coverage ratio(x)36.553.784.9162.8Source:EcoPro BM,Mirae Asset Securities Research estimatesMirae Asset Securities Research41|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesBattery cellsSource:Bloomberg,Quantiwise,Mirae Asset Securities Res

160、earch(Wbn,%,x)Market capRevenueOPNPROEP/EP/BEV/EBITDA22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23FSamsung SDI49,029 16,954 20,203 1,675 2,093 1,601 1,911 10.3 11.0 33.5 28.1 3.0 2.7 17.6 14.8 LG Chem50,897 49,628 56,355 5,119 5,780 3,623 4,140 15.3 15.5 17.2 15.0 2.4 2.1 7.9 7.1 SK Innovation19,325 56,

161、279 56,865 2,580 2,606 1,722 1,671 9.5 8.5 12.1 12.4 1.0 0.9 9.6 8.7 CATL286,851 34,098 49,335 4,713 6,712 3,683 5,330 21.0 23.3 78.8 55.0 15.8 12.2 43.8 30.2 BYD151,825 53,959 66,170 2,438 3,246 1,505 2,145 10.8 13.7 105.6 72.7 10.3 9.1 30.5 24.7 Panasonic33,751 77,089 79,971 4,168 4,603 2,778 3,05

162、2 9.5 9.7 11.5 10.5 1.0 1.0 5.9 5.4 Murata60,560 19,155 20,948 4,296 4,872 3,228 3,666 14.1 14.2 17.5 15.5 2.3 2.1 9.1 8.4 Gotion High-Tech15,311 2,337 3,338 192 262 138 212 5.2 6.6 120.4 79.9 5.3 4.9 50.8 36.7 Avg.11.9 12.8 49.6 36.1 5.1 4.4 21.9 17.0 Global peer valuationsMirae Asset Securities Re

163、search42|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesBattery materials(Wbn,%,x)Market capRevenueOPNPROEP/EP/BEV/EBITDA22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23FIljin Materials6,317 1,015 1,324 138 195 111 158 11.5 14.5 56.8 40.4 8.2 6.8 23.0 16.5 SKC7,555 3,770 4,106 514 547 350 376 15.0 14.2 29.7 26.7 3.2 2.9 11.9 11

164、.0 Solus Advanced Materials3,120 640 993 73 136 50 98 9.5 16.2 86.0 47.6 11.5 9.4 17.9 13.1 L&F8,121 2,300 3,369 138 238 103 182 20.1 27.2 76.1 44.0 12.9 9.8 40.4 24.1 COSMO AM&T1,392 595 853 45 63 38 51 17.2 19.4 36.6 27.1 5.8 4.8 17.3 12.9 POSCO Chemical12,317 2,461 3,477 178 255 164 225 6.8 8.8 7

165、5.2 54.9 5.1 4.7 43.8 33.4 EcoPro BM11,823 2,407 3,825 224 366 167 276 20.3 26.2 71.6 44.8 13.0 10.1 39.4 25.9 Chunbo3,452 396 588 75 115 65 101 21.6 26.4 53.4 34.6 10.5 8.1 26.6 18.2 SKIET11,586 1,022 1,381 305 414 234 309 10.7 12.8 49.6 37.5 5.1 4.5 31.0 24.8 Umicore14,620 7,781 8,483 1,139 1,188

166、726 785 17.9 15.0 18.7 17.9 3.1 2.9 10.1 9.7 Sumitomo Metal Mining13,225 11,87811,031 1,346 1,308 1,403 1,199 9.5 8.5 8.7 10.3 0.9 0.9 8.5 9.3 Beijing Easpring8,773 1,866 2,447 237 308 207 264 19.6 20.6 42.8 33.5 8.1 6.7 33.8 26.1 Ningbo Shanshan11,140 4,984 5,963 733 940 485 599 16.6 17.5 24.3 19.7

167、 3.6 3.2 15.9 13.7 Guangzhou Tinci Materials23,866 3,137 4,173 877 1,103 747 915 42.2 36.2 32.9 26.6 12.7 8.9 23.8 19.5 Yunnan Energy New Material44,331 2,290 3,177 924 1,295 808 1,159 24.7 26.3 56.6 40.0 13.6 10.4 39.5 28.9 Sinoma Science&Technology11,079 4,334 4,871 923 1,059 785 897 20.7 19.6 14.

168、1 12.3 2.9 2.4 11.1 10.0 Shanghai Putailai New Energy23,658 2,407 3,309 549 750 445 603 19.7 21.8 51.5 37.9 10.2 8.4 37.2 27.3 W-Scope511 395 459 80 90 50 59 34.9 31.6 10.2 8.5 2.0 1.5 5.0 4.0 GEM9,985 4,813 5,910 458 647 336 466 11.5 14.1 29.3 20.8 3.3 2.9 18.2 14.1 CNGR21,326 4,941 6,530 422 595 3

169、74 533 28.3 30.0 59.3 40.3 16.0 11.8 46.1 31.2 Avg.18.9 20.3 44.2 31.3 7.6 6.0 25.0 18.7 Global peer valuationsSource:Bloomberg,Quantiwise,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchMirae Asset Securities Research43|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesPeer Valuation()Global peer valuationsEquipment(electrodes)(Wbn,%,x)Mar

170、ket capRevenueOPNPROEP/EP/BEV/EBITDA22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23FTSI190 82-9-7-12.4-19.8-2.3-11.4-PNT1,055 787-93-72-36.5-7.5-2.2-5.6-CIS912-Jiangmen Kanhoo928-Wuxi Lead Intelligent23,298 2,752 3,587 535 717 480 652 25.3 26.6 46.9 34.7 11.1 8.9 40.2 29.4 Hirano Tecseed443 373 373 51 52

171、37 38-11.7 11.4-Toray Industry11,967 23,312 24,310 1,484 1,695 1,090 1,247 7.9 8.3 10.9 9.6 0.8 0.8 7.1 6.6 Shenzhen Yinghe4,303 1,053 1,162 111 130 98 112 9.2 9.6 43.0 38.0 3.8 3.5 33.5 27.8 Avg.14.1 14.8 28.1 23.4 5.2 4.4 26.9 21.3 Source:Bloomberg,Quantiwise,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchMirae A

172、sset Securities Research44|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesPeer Valuation()Global peer valuationsEquipment(assembly)(Wbn,%,x)Market capRevenueOPNPROEP/EP/BEV/EBITDA22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23FMplus164 220-20-10.9-Philoptics220 286 348 15 25 23-26.1-17.4 11.0 2.8-9.1-Youil Energy Tech187 130-2

173、1-16-13.2-DE&T53 125-38-32-56.9-4.6-2.0-3.0-Wuxi Autowell Technology4,214 575 747 99 133 85 115 24.1 25.3 48.4 36.1 11.3 9.2 38.2 28.8 Shenzhen Hymson Laser2,531 697 880 73 111 64 98 19.4 23.0 39.0 25.4 7.3 5.8 31.5 25.5 Avg.18.7 21.9 34.7 24.0 9.3 7.5 34.8 27.1 Source:Bloomberg,Quantiwise,Mirae Ass

174、et Securities ResearchMirae Asset Securities Research45|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesPeer Valuation()Global peer valuationsEquipment(formation/automation)(Wbn,%,x)Market capRevenueOPNPROEP/EP/BEV/EBITDA22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23F22F23FHana Technology386 291 364 44 63 36 53 34.7 32.6 12.8 8.8 3.

175、5 2.2 9.5 5.8 Cowin Tech273 154 171 21 24 18 19 15.4 14.6 17.3 18.0 2.2 2.1 10.3 10.8 Wonik PNE420 225 272 31 41 28 36 19.5 20.8 15.5 12.5 2.7 2.3 12.6 9.0 Apro213-Fujian Nebula Electronics1,658 302 407 57 80 47 67 26.7 28.0 34.6 24.5 9.2 6.8 24.0 18.7 HNAC Technology1,728-Guangdong Zhengye960-New T

176、rend International610-Hans Laser Technology 8,819 3,401 3,994 436 527 408 490 17.8 18.0 21.6 18.0 3.6 3.2 18.5 16.2 Avg.21.0 21.4 22.2 16.9 4.5 3.6 16.8 13.4 Source:Bloomberg,Quantiwise,Mirae Asset Securities ResearchMirae Asset Securities Research46|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesImportant disclosures an

177、d disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history Company Date Rating TP(W)Company Date Rating TP(W)Samsung SDI(006400)03/30/21 Buy 120,222 11/03/21 Buy 1,300,000 01/11/21 Buy 100,987 04/28/21 Buy 1,050,000 12/01/20 Buy 68,286 01/11/21 Buy 950,000 07/27/20 Buy 49,051 08/26/20 Buy 690,000 02/28/20 Buy 27,

178、814 07/29/20 Buy 560,000 05/30/19 Buy 37,086 06/01/20 Buy 480,000 EcoPro BM(247540)05/04/20 Buy 390,000 11/04/21 Buy 780,000 01/30/20 Buy 350,000 09/09/21 Buy 530,000 10/01/19 Buy 315,000 01/11/21 Buy 240,000 L&F(066970)10/29/20 Buy 170,000 11/12/21 Buy 360,000 04/07/20 Buy 87,000 09/24/21 Buy 260,0

179、00 10/20/19 Buy 74,000 07/13/21 Buy 175,000 05/20/21 Buy 149,075 Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance:+20%or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance:+10%to+20%Neutral Expected to perform in line with the

180、market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance:-10%to+10%Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance:-10%or worse Rating and TP history:Share price(),TP(),Not Rated(),Buy(),Trading Buy(),Hold(),Sell()*Our investment rating is a guide to

181、 the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months.*Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Daewoo Co.,Ltd.,analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise.*The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discus

182、sed in this report,in part based on estimates of future earnings.*TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies,as well as general market and economic conditions.0500,0001,000,0001,500,000Nov 19Nov 20Nov 21(W)Samsung SDI0100,000200,000300,000400,000Nov 19Nov

183、20Nov 21(W)L&F0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,000Nov 19Nov 20Nov 21(W)EcoPro BMAppendix 1Mirae Asset Securities Research47|2022 Outlook EV BatteriesRatings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 80.69%11.03%6.90%1.38%Investment banking services

184、 61.90%19.05%14.29%4.76%*Based on recommendations in the last 12-months(as of September 30,2021)Disclosures As of the publication date,Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd.has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of Samsung SDI as an underlying asset;other than this,Mi

185、rae Asset Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies.Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report(the“Analysts”)are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations.They are neither registered

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