1、Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyMay 20232Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a

2、collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may

3、 be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookMay 2023This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations

4、 and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers

5、 and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in March-April 2023.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary _ 5 1.The weight of uncertainty _ 7Broad-based growth r

6、emains elusive _ 7Prices continue to cause pain _ 92.Financial sector tremors _ 12Bank collapses dent confidence _ 12Interest rates in the spotlight _ 143.The changing face of globalization _ 17The return of industrial policy _ 17The reshaping of global supply chains _ 19References _ 22Contributors

7、_ 26Acknowledgements _ 27Cover:Unsplash5Chief Economists OutlookThe May 2023 Chief Economists Outlook launches amid continuing uncertainty for policy-makers,businesses and households as persistent headwinds buffet the global economy.While there are signs of nascent optimism,the banking disruption of

8、 March 2023 has caused tremors in the global outlook.Moreover,the marked dispersion of responses to some questions in the latest Chief Economists Survey suggests that there is little consensus about how to interpret and weigh the latest economic data and developments.The expectations around a potent

9、ial global recession in 2023 are a case in point:45%of chief economists say a recession is likely,but the same proportion considers it unlikely.Regionally,there has been a notable strengthening of expectations for most economies since the January 2023 Chief Economists Outlook.Perhaps unsurprisingly,

10、the most buoyant economic activity is expected in Asia,with Chinas reopening projected to bolster activity across the continent.For China itself,chief economists are near unanimous in expecting a significant rebound this year.At the other end of the spectrum,75%of chief economists still expect weak

11、or very weak growth this year in Europe,while for the US,views are divergent as the countrys growth prospects are clouded by heightened uncertainty around financial stability and the pace and extent of monetary tightening.The chief economists expect equally divergent regional inflation outlooks for

12、2023.Headline rates have begun to ease,but core inflation is stickier than anticipated and shows signs of picking up.The pressure on many households remains acute,and more than three-quarters of respondents expect the cost of living to stay at crisis levels in numerous countries throughout 2023.The

13、recent banking instability has complicated efforts to deal with runaway prices.Almost 80%of chief economists think central banks now face a trade-off between managing inflation and maintaining financial sector stability.A similar proportion expect central banks to struggle to reach their inflation t

14、arget.Although the chief economists are broadly sanguine about the systemic implications of the recent financial disruption 69%characterize it as isolated episodes rather than signs of systemic vulnerability they point to potentially damaging knock-on effects.These include a squeeze on the flow of c

15、redit to businesses and the prospect of significant disruption in property markets in particular.Executive summary6Chief Economists OutlookTurning to broader structural shifts in the global economy,almost three-quarters of the chief economists surveyed expect assertive industrial policy to become in

16、creasingly widespread over the next three years.Respondents highlighted a number of concerns with this development,with significant proportions cautioning that it will deepen geoeconomic tensions(91%),stifle competition(70%)and lead to a problematic increase in sovereign debt levels(68%).Industrial

17、policy is also expected to contribute to ongoing changes in the geography and composition of the global economy.When asked about the business strategies that are likely to determine the shape of global supply chains over the next three years,the chief economists highlighted adaptation to geopolitica

18、l faultlines(94%),prioritization of resilience over efficiency(91%),diversification of suppliers(84%)and an increasing focus on environmental sustainability(77%).7Chief Economists OutlookShare of respondents(%)Extremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely lik

19、ely3429423Broad-based growth remains elusiveWhile there are signs of nascent optimism in the latest survey of chief economists,it also reveals striking uncertainty about the trajectory of the world economy.The chief economists responses highlight the continuing ambiguity that clouds many economic de

20、velopments,which in turn makes it difficult for policy-makers,businesses and households to plan for a future that is unusually unclear.For example,when asked about the likelihood of a global recession in 2023,45%of respondents said it was somewhat or extremely likely,but the exact same proportion sa

21、id it was somewhat or extremely unlikely(see Figure 1).This polarized response suggests that there is little consensus about how to interpret and weigh the emerging data about the health of the global economy,a pattern that may have been intensified by the fact that the survey was carried out during

22、 the volatile period of financial distress that followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank(discussed in section 2).Figure 1.Global recession outlookHow likely is a global recession in 2023?1.The weight of uncertainty1 Foreign Affairs,March 2023.2 IMF,April 2023a.Source:Chief Economists Survey,Apri

23、l 2023Note:The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100%because figures have been rounded up/down.The overarching economic backdrop is one of persistently patchy global growth.1 In its latest World Economic Outlook,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)forecasts global growth of 2.8%this year and a

24、nnual average growth of around 3%over the next five years.Moreover,this forecast rests on an uptick in economic activity in China and a number of emerging markets;the IMF foresees an anaemic growth performance by the worlds advanced economies over the medium term.28Chief Economists OutlookA similar

25、pattern of divergent growth dynamics can be seen in the chief economists responses on the prospects for growth in various economies and regions(see Figure 2).However,most of these regional outlooks have become more positive since the last Chief Economists Outlook was published in January.Figure 2.Ec

26、onomic growth What is your expectation for economic growth in the following geographies in 2023?Share of respondents(%)Very weakWeakModerateStrongVery strongChinaEast Asia and PacificSouth AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaCentral AsiaUnited StatesSub-Saharan AfricaEuropeLatin America and the Caribbea

27、n388363636352669254443344744645183232563245435450433Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023Perhaps unsurprisingly,chief economists see the most buoyant economic activity among the economies of Asia.For China,in particular,there is near unanimity that growth will be moderate or better this year,a s

28、harp improvement from January when this was the expectation of only half of respondents.Chinas borders have been reopening following the decision in late 2022 to unwind the countrys stringent zero-COVID policies.This change has transformed the growth outlook not just for China but for its regionalne

29、ighbours too.Accordingly,93%of chief economists expect at least moderate growth in East Asia and Pacific,with 39%expecting strong or very strong growth.The outlook for South Asia is broadly similar,with 92%expecting at least moderate growth,and 36%expecting strong or very strong growth.While both of

30、 these regions are likely to benefit from both rebounding activity in China and expected changes in global supply chains(a topic discussed in section 3),it is important to note that tighter international financial conditions are already placing significant strain on a number of regional economies,su

31、ch as Pakistan,Sri Lanka,Lao PDR andMongolia.3Expectations for growth in Central Asia have also strengthened in the wake of Chinas reopening.4 Almost three-quarters of chief economists expect moderate or strong growth in the region this year,up from 31%in January.3 World Bank,January 2023.9Chief Eco

32、nomists OutlookAt the other end of the spectrum is Europe,where 75%of chief economists expect growth this year to be weak or very weak.Dismal as this outlook is,it marks a significant improvement since the last Outlook was published in January:then,68%expected very weak growth in Europe in 2023;now,

33、that figure is down to 6%.The improvement can in part be attributed to the regions winter resilience in the face of the energy crisis,but numerous factors continue to weigh on the growth outlook for Europe,including weak business and consumer sentiment,5 and increasingly tight financial conditions.6

34、Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa also remain at the weaker end of the outlook,with more than half of respondents expecting weak growth.Both regions confront a difficult mix of headwinds:tepid global conditions,policy uncertainty,weak investment environments and some of the high

35、est inflation rates globally.7The chief economists are now evenly split on the outlook for the United States,with half of respondents expecting moderate or strong growth and the other half expecting weak or very weak growth.This polarized outlook is significantly more optimistic than in January,when

36、 just 9%expected moderate or strong growth,in line with buoyant labour market conditions and resilient domestic demand.Nevertheless,the countrys prospects have been somewhat clouded recently by heightened uncertainty around financial stability and the pace and extent of monetary tightening.Recent de

37、velopments in the labour markets,8 financial markets9 and property markets may point to stronger headwinds in the second half of 2023.The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is also evenly poised,with broadly similar proportions of survey respondents expecting weak growth(36%)and str

38、ong growth(32%)in 2023.The regions prospects have been affected by OPEC+agreements to cut oil production,which led,for example,to the IMF revising its GDP forecasts for Saudi Arabia to reflect a projected fall from 8.7%growth in 2022 to 3.1%in 2023.10 Prices continue to cause pain There have been so

39、me reductions in headline rates of inflation in the early months of 2023.This reflects a range of factors,from sharp monetary tightening to a stabilization of commodity markets and an easing of supply-chain conditions.It also reflects base effects that will intensify in the second quarter of 2023 as

40、 sharp price increases recorded in 2022 drop out of the inflation rates 12-month horizon.This mechanical reduction in the rate of inflation will do nothing to ease the pressure of high prices on households,and around 80%of the chief economists surveyed said they expect the cost of living to remain a

41、t crisis levels in many countries throughout 2023(see Figure 3).4 Ibid.5 European Commission,March 2023.6 IMF,April 2023a.7 Adler et al.,February 2023.8 Bureau of Labor Statistics,April 2023a.9 Rennison,March 2023.10 IMF,April 2023a.10Chief Economists OutlookFigure 3.Cost of livingLooking ahead to t

42、he remainder of 2023,do you agree/disagree with the following statements?Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023Share of respondents(%)Wage growth will pick up in most advanced economies91564122433393The cost of living will still be at crisis levels in many countriesStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncert

43、ainAgreeStrongly agreeCost-of-living pressures are particularly acute in some developing economies,where domestic price dynamics are exacerbated by currency depreciation.For example,between January 2020 and January 2023,food prices increased by as much as 46%in the Middle East and Central Asia.11 Wi

44、th global wage growth struggling to keep up with prices,the risk is that vulnerable communities will be pushed further into poverty,especially under tighter financial conditions.12It is also important to note that while headline inflation rates are falling,measures of“core inflation”,which strip out

45、 volatile price categories,including food and energy,have been increasing.For example,the latest data for the Eurozone put core inflation at an all-time high of 5.7%in March 2023.13 Similarly,in the US,while headline inflation eased slightly in March,core inflation picked up to 5.6%as higher housing

46、-related prices more than offset declines on other price categories.14 Moreover,as will be discussed in section 2,the recent banking crisis added an additional layer of complexity to current inflation dynamics by putting pressure on central banks to moderate the pace of monetary tightening.1511 Roth

47、er et al.,April 2023.12 Alvarez et al.,February 2023.13 Eurostat,March 2023.14 Bureau of Labor Statistics,April 2023b.15 Timiraos,March 2023.11Chief Economists OutlookIn light of factors like these,in April,the IMF increased its inflation forecast for 2023 from 6.6%to 7%.16 The latest survey of chie

48、f economists also registers a gloomier inflation outlook compared to the January edition,with a marked uptick across all regions in the proportion of respondents expecting high,and in some cases very high,inflation this year(see Figure 4).The position is particularly stark in Europe,where 90%of resp

49、ondents expect high or very high inflation in 2023,up from 57%in the last survey.In the US,68%of respondents expect high inflation,almost three times as many as in the last survey.Meanwhile,the intertwining of inflation and currency dynamics mentioned above can be seen across a number of regions whe

50、re chief economists expectations of moderate inflation in the last survey have now given way to expectations of high and very high inflation,most notably Sub-Saharan Africa(74%)and Latin America and the Caribbean(73%).A slight majority(52%)also expects the Middle East and North Africa region to reco

51、rd high inflation this year.China remains an outlier,with only a small proportion of respondents(14%)expecting high inflation this year,albeit up from 5%in January.One factor to watch is the possibility that Chinas reopening will add to inflation pressures elsewhere,particularly if outbound tourism

52、picks up.17 Figure 4.Inflation What is your expectation for inflation in the following geographies in 2023?Share of respondents(%)EuropeSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanUnited StatesCentral AsiaSouth AsiaChinaEast Asia and PacificVery lowLowModerateHighVery high1026273238525594848381

53、4603256364395268706944846Middle East and North AfricaSource:Chief Economists Survey,April 202316 IMF,April 2023a.17 Mller et al.,February 2023.12Chief Economists Outlook2.Financial sector tremorsBank collapses dent confidenceIn March,the global financial system was roiled by a series of dramatic dis

54、ruptions on both sides of the Atlantic.In the US,bank runs brought down Silvergate Capital,Silicon Valley Bank(SVB)and Signature Bank.In Europe,there was a government-backed takeover of the troubled Swiss lender Credit Suisse by its arch-rival UBS.18 These bank failures,and the market panic they ind

55、uced,19 briefly sparked fears of the kind of systemic financial vulnerabilities that caused the 2007-08 global financial crisis.Fears of systemic disruption have since abated,but concerns persist about pockets of financial vulnerability being revealed as rapid recent increases in interest rates begi

56、n to bite.The survey of chief economists was in the field as the banking sector disruption was easing.Broadly speaking,respondents expressed confidence in the systemic integrity of the banking sector while also highlighting the likelihood of further episodes of disruption.On the one hand,almost 70%o

57、f respondents characterized recent distress in the banking sector as isolated episodes rather than as indications of systemic vulnerability(see Figure 5).On the other hand,almost the same proportion said they expect further bank failures or other financial disruptions this year(see Figure 6).The IMF

58、 has warned that even isolated bank failures increase the likelihood of the global economy facing a hard landing.20 Conversely,critics caution that the relatively generous support that was provided to stem the recent bout of disruption risks propping up“zombie”banks and storing up bigger losses for

59、the future.21 18 The Economist,March 2023a.19 Brenton,March 2023.20 IMF,April 2023a.21 The Economist,March 2023b.Share of respondents(%)Isolated episodes with limited additional impactIndications of systemic vulnerability6931Figure 5.Distress in the banking sectorHow would you characterize recent di

60、stress in the banking sector?Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 202313Chief Economists Outlook1 14 4Share of respondents(%)Extremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likely627643Figure 6.Financial disruptions outlookHow likely are further bank failures o

61、r other serious financial disruptions in 2023?Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023In addition to the risk of further turbulence in the banking sector,the latest survey of chief economists also highlighted the likelihood of spillover effects in the real economy as banks seek to bolster their bal

62、ance sheets by lending more cautiously.22 Businesses will find it more difficult to obtain bank loans in the wake of this years financial disruption,according to 82%of the chief economists surveyed(see Figure 7).One estimate suggests that in the US and Eurozone,the drag exerted on GDP growth by chan

63、ging credit conditions will amount to around half of one percentage point.23 22 Lawder,April 2023.23 IMF,April 2023b.24 Adrian et al.,March 2023.Figure 7.Impact of recent financial disruptionsLooking ahead to the remainder of 2023,do you agree/disagree with the following statements?Source:Chief Econ

64、omists Survey,April 2023Share of respondents(%)Recent financial disruption will lead to a slowdown in investment and activity in technology sectorRecent financial disruption means businesses will find bank lending more difficult to secureStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agree612739621

65、649Even if the worst of the financial crisis has passed,the fear and volatility it engendered have revived debates about how best to regulate the banking sector.24 This is another area where the survey of chief economists points to marked levels of uncertainty,with broadly similar proportions of res

66、pondents expecting each of the three regulatory options presented:(1)no further changes after the initial response,(2)further national measures,and(3)further national and global measures.When asked to identify specific regulatory measures they expected to see more of,respondents highlighted five in

67、particular:tighter regulation and supervision of small and mid-sized banks,higher liquidity standards,improved oversight of non-bank financial sector institutions,and strengthened stress testing.14Chief Economists Outlook1 14 4Share of respondents(%)The initial response will be followed by changes t

68、o banking regulations both nationally and globally273636The response will be limited to the steps taken in the immediate aftermath of bank collapses in the US and SwitzerlandThe initial response will be followed by further changes to banking regulations at the national levelFigure 8.Regulatory respo

69、nseWhat is your expectation for the regulatory response to recent financial disruption?Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023Interest rates in the spotlightThe recent bout of financial disruption is closely intertwined with monetary policy decision-making,particularly in the US.One of the proxima

70、te causes of the flurry of bank collapses was the effect on bank balance sheets of rapid policy rate increases,which triggered sharp falls in the value of many assets,including the government bonds that made up a significant proportion of the holdings of SVB.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

71、(FDIC)estimated that as a result of these shifts,the US banking sector was sitting on$620 million of unrealized losses,leaving smaller lenders particularly vulnerable to runs on deposits.25Almost 80%of chief economists assert that central banks now face a trade-off between,on the one hand,persisting

72、 with the pace of their tightening cycles until inflation is back down to more manageable levels,and on the other hand,triggering further distress in the financial sector(see Figure 9).There appears to be strong consensus on how central banks will manage this trade-off,with 82%of chief economists ex

73、pecting the pace of interest-rate rises to slow over the remainder of 2023 owing to financial stability concerns.This will hamper efforts to rein in inflation,and three-quarters of respondents expect central banks to struggle to bring inflation down to their target rates.Figure 9.Monetary policyLook

74、ing ahead to the remainder of 2023,do you agree/disagree with the following statements?Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023Share of respondents(%)Strongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agreeCentral banks will struggle to bring inflation to their target rates12125521Central banks will f

75、ace a trade-off between managing inflation and maintaining banking sector stability1295524Interest rate rises will slow in the face of financial-stability concerns31576625 FDIC,March 2023.15Chief Economists OutlookThe evidence thus far from the two most systemically important central banks is mixed.

76、In the US,the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in March 2023;this was the first rise of less than 50 basis points since a year earlier.26 For its part,however,the European Central Bank maintained the pace of its previous increases,hiking rates by another 50 basis points in March 2023.

77、27Even if there is dovish shift in the stance of the worlds central banks,the prospects of a full-scale shift to monetary loosening are remote.28 The era of ultra-low rates has ended,and if higher rates have already contributed to a number of collapses in the banking sector,the question arises as to

78、 where else there may be vulnerabilities in the face of elevated borrowing costs.According to the survey of chief economists,the biggest source of concern should be property markets,where 67%of respondents expect higher rates to cause significant disruption in 2023-24(see Figure 10),followed by fina

79、ncial businesses,global financial markets and sovereign and corporate debt sustainability.Notably,there appears to be little concern about the impact on labour markets,and almost two-thirds of respondents expect labour markets to remain tight in most advanced economies this year.26 Federal Reserve,M

80、arch 2023.27 European Central Bank,March 2023.28 Strohecker,Flasseur,April 2023.29 IMF,April 2023b.Figure 10.Impact of higher interest rates In light of the role played by rising interest rates in recent episodes of disruption,what is your expectation for the impact of higher rates in the following

81、areas in 2023-2024?Share of respondents(%)Property marketsFinancial businessesLabour marketsNon-financial businessesCorporate debt sustainabilitySovereign debt sustainabilityGlobal financial marketsNo disruptionLimited disruptionSignificant disruption 33675050559365693469328769154642412Source:Chief

82、Economists Survey,April 2023There are already signs of strain in commercial property markets in particular,with global transaction volumes down by 17%over the past year and the value of US-listed real-estate investment trusts(REITS)down by between 14%and 20%year on year in the first quarter of 2023.

83、29 Inits latest Global Financial Stability Report,16Chief Economists Outlookthe IMF cautioned that a broad-based correction across the sector is now a risk given the combination of higher interest rates and signs of structural changes in the levels of demand for commercial property.Moreover,in the U

84、S,vulnerabilities in the commercial property sector risk creating a doom loop with the banking sector:with around three-quarters of US commercial property lending coming from smaller banks(with total assets of below$250 billion),if a slump in commercial property values were to cause a spike in bad l

85、oans,it could have a cascading impact in parts of the US banking system.Similarly,in the global financial markets,there have been signs of strain and uncertainty.This was particularly true in the immediate wake of the collapse of SVB.Despite stock markets remaining relatively flat,the market for US

86、two-year Treasuries plunged into uncharted territory,with yields collapsing by just more than half a percentage point on one day alone,a bigger one-day move than had been recorded even at the height of the global financial crisis.A flight to safety at a time of turbulence makes sense,but the scale o

87、f the volatility in bond prices has raised some concerns about market vulnerability to any further banking sector disruption.30 30 Martin,March 2023.17Chief Economists Outlook3.The changing face of globalizationThe return of industrial policyIn addition to the short-term turbulence that has been tri

88、ggered by rising interest rates,there are also deeper structural shifts under way in global patterns of economic activity.This subsection looks at the growing prevalence of industrial policies that seek to give the state a renewed prominence in national and global economic development.The survey of

89、chief economists is unambiguous in concluding that industrial policy will have a marked impact on the global economy in the years ahead.Almost three-quarters of chief economists expect it to become a widespread global approach to economic policy over the next three years(see Figure 11),building on h

90、igh-profile recent initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act in the US,the EUs Green Deal or France 2030.Figure 11.Industrial policyIn light of some governments seeking a more active role in the economy,how likely is it that over the next three years this approach to industrial p

91、olicy will33740173Share of respondents(%).deepen geoeconomic rivalry and tension.become a widespread approach to economic policy globally.stifle competition.lead to a problematic increase in sovereign debt levels.lead to significant relocation of economic activity.lead to significant changes in the

92、pattern of international financial flows.be a driver of innovation.lead to an increase in global economic resilience.lead to an overall increase in global economic activityExtremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likely39481363223391043433132360362655131

93、0206010310135816635535Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 202318Chief Economists OutlookNumerous factors have contributed to the resurgence of industrial policy.Deepening geopolitical tensions have been a key driver,with the worlds largest powers seeking to maintain or develop their strategic auton

94、omy and limit their dependence on rivals for crucial goods and services.Another factor has been the perceived need for strong public sector involvement to drive progress on major national and global challenges,such as infrastructure development and climate change mitigation.In addition,“free-market”

95、policy frameworks have been discredited in many countries in recent years,leading governments to feel more emboldened in asserting the need for increased political influence over key economic decisions.The number of industrial policies has almost doubled in the last decade,according to the UN Indust

96、rial Development Organization(UNIDO),with objectives ranging widely from boosting growth and innovation to creating jobs and driving the green transition.31 While it may take some time before the effectiveness of this recent wave of policies can be gauged,the chief economists highlight a number of c

97、oncerns(see Figure 11).Most strikingly,91%expect the resurgence of industrial policy to lead to a deepening of geoeconomic tensions.On the economic front,70%expect industrial policy to stifle competition,and only 20%expect it to lead to an overall increase in global economic activity.This echoes fam

98、iliar concerns.Even proponents of industrial policy warn against the risks of inefficient government spending in pursuit of poorly defined targets.Related to this,68%of chief economists highlighted the potential for industrial policy to lead to problematic increases in sovereign debt levels.It is no

99、table that thus far,the revival of industrial policy is almost entirely an advanced-economy phenomenon.The UNIDO research suggests that high-income economies implement about five times as many industrial policies as low-and middle-income economies.32Around two-thirds of chief economists expect indus

100、trial policy to result in a significant relocation of economic activity worldwide.With around 60%of industrial policies involving firm-level incentives and targets for example,to attract key industry players from around the world there is ample scope for a spiral of protectionist counter-measures to

101、 emerge.33 Responses to the Inflation Reduction Act have shown that companies are quick to adapt in order to capitalize on generous new incentives.34 The next section will discuss who the potential winners and losers from this shifting of activity will be,but in the aggregate,the view of the chief e

102、conomists seems to be that the resulting pattern of activity will be fragmented and potentially fragile.Only 13%expect current approaches to industrial policy to improve economic resilience.One area of uncertainty that emerges from the survey responses is the relationship between industrial policy a

103、nd innovation,where the chief economists are evenly divided.Around 40%agree that industrial policy will be a driver of innovation over the next three years,but a similar proportion disagrees.One of the concerns in this regard is the potential for wasteful duplication if technologies and industries a

104、re being developed in parallel in silos across the world.For example,it 31 UNIDO,March 2023.32 Ibid.33 The Economist,January 2023.34 Euractiv,March 2023.19Chief Economists Outlookhas been estimated that if US firms were to replicate domestically cumulative global investments in three priority indust

105、ries(green energy,technology hardware and batteries),it would cost up to$4.6 trillion,or about 4.8%of world GDP.35 Similarly,fragmenting and duplicating supply chains is neither efficient nor environmentally optimal.The reshaping of global supply chainsA resurgence of industrial policy is one of a n

106、umber of factors that has been reshaping global supply chains in recent years.In the November 2021 Chief Economists Outlook,deglobalization was touted as the most significant trend reversal in the global economy at the time.36 A few months later,Russias invasion of Ukraine wreaked havoc with global

107、markets for crucial commodities,notably food and energy,prompting further expectations that businesses would have to reconfigure their supply chains in response.37 In the latest survey of chief economists,one-third of respondents said they expect significant changes in the structure of global supply

108、 chains over the next three years,with the remaining two-thirds expecting limited changes(see Figure 12).No respondents said they expected no changes.The fact that a substantial majority foresees only limited changes perhaps reflects the resilience of supply chains over recent years,with the Global

109、Supply Chain Pressure Index returning to its pre-pandemic levels in February 2023.38 However,the twin pressures of deepening geopolitical tensions and intensifying industrial policy mean that further adjustments are almost inevitable in the coming years.39Share of respondents(%)No changes at allLimi

110、ted changesSignificant changes6733Figure 12.Changes in the structure of global supply chainsWhat is your expectation for the extent of changes in the structure of global supply chains over the next three years?Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023In terms of the regional character of any future

111、changes to global supply chains,China is expected to be particularly affected.Almost three-quarters of the chief economists surveyed said that they expect supply-chain restructuring to have a negative impact on Chinas economic prospects (see Figure 13).No other country or region comes close to this

112、figure,which is likely a reflection of concerted efforts to use industrial policy to encourage the strategic relocation of manufacturing activity as well as the lengthy COVID-19 related closures in China.35 The Economist,January 2023.36 World Economic Forum,November 2021.37 World Economic Forum,Sept

113、ember 202238 Global Supply Chain Pressure Index,March 2023.39 McKinsey,August 2022.20Chief Economists OutlookFigure 13.New geography of supply chainsWhat is your expectation for the effect of global supply chain restructuring on the economic prospects in the following geographies over the next three

114、 years?Share of respondents(%)ChinaEast Asia and PacificSouth AsiaCentral AsiaUnited StatesSub-Saharan AfricaEuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanExtremely negativeSomewhat negativeNeutralSomewhat positiveExtremely postive69441512567152245714343828342315625611304312342419275031410369Middle East and

115、North AfricaSource:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023According to the survey,the regions most likely to benefit from supply-chain changes are South Asia,East Asia and Pacific,Latin America and the Caribbean,and the US.This is broadly in line with many supply-chain developments over recent years.40 W

116、hen asked to name specific economies that are likely to benefit,among those repeatedly cited were:Vietnam,India,Thailand,Indonesia,Mexico,Turkey and Poland.On a sectoral basis,the chief economists listed a range of industries where they expect supply-chain changes to be most pronounced,including sem

117、iconductors,green energy,automotive,pharmaceuticals,food,energy and the broad technology category.Perhaps unsurprisingly,there is significant overlap between this list and the list of sectors where the chief economists expect industrial policy to have the greatest impact and also reflects takeaways

118、from the pandemic as well as the food and energy crises triggered by the war in Ukraine.The chief economists also pointed to a series of business strategies that will influence the changing structure of global supply chains.Again,geopolitical factors feature prominently,with 94%of respondents expect

119、ing businesses to reconfigure their supply chains in line with geopolitical faultlines(see Figure 14).Only slightly fewer(91%)expect businesses prioritization of resilience over efficiency to be another influence on the shape of global supply chains.Related to this,84%expect businesses diversificati

120、on of their suppliers to be another driver of supply-chain change.40 See,for example,Bove,December 2022;Chew,March 2023;Lee,April 2023;Kumar,April 2023.21Chief Economists OutlookFigure 14.Supply chains strategiesOver the next three years,which corporate strategies are most likely to shape global sup

121、ply chains?Share of respondents(%)Using AI and other technologies for supply chains optimizationIncreased complexity and fragmentation of supply chainsIncreased focus on environmental sustainabilityDiversification of suppliersPrioritization of resilience over efficiency in supply chainsRestructuring

122、 of supply chains in line with geopolitical faultlinesExtremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likely652966823364539313601732039351016Simplification of supply chains351029263548610Source:Chief Economists Survey,April 2023Slightly more than three-quarters

123、 of respondents highlighted the likely impact of an increased focus on environmental sustainability,while 74%said they expected to see AI and other technologies used for supply-chain optimization.One point of apparent disagreement among the chief economists was on whether businesses will make their

124、supply chains more simple or complex,with around half of respondents expecting each of these strategies to contribute to the evolving shape of global supply chains.As in other areas of the survey,the lack of consensus on this important aspect of ongoing supply-chain changes highlights just how fraug

125、ht with uncertainty the global economy currently is.Moreover,this uncertainty shows no signs of diminishing.For example,the rapid recent advances in the field of generative AI represent another potentially seismic change to which businesses and governments will have to adapt.And this process of adap

126、tation is expected to start soon:42%of respondents expect these technologies to be commercially disruptive by the end of the year.22Chief Economists OutlookReferencesAdler,Gustavo,Chalk,Nigel,Ivanova,Anna,“Latin America Faces Slowing Growth and High Inflation Amid Social Tensions”IMF Blog,Internatio

127、nal Monetary Fund,1 February 2023,https:/www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/01/latin-america-faces-slowing-growth-and-high-inflation-amid-social-tensions.Adrian,Tobias,Alwazir,Jihad,Khan,Ashraf,Solohub,Dmytro,“Central Banks Must Enhance Transparency to Build Trust”IMF Blog,International Monetary

128、Fund,23March 2023,https:/www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/03/23/central-banks-must-enhance-transparency-to-build-trust.Alvarez,Jorge,Hansen,Niels-Jakob,“Wage-Price Spiral Risks Still Contained,Latest Data Suggests”IMF Blog,International Monetary Fund,24 February 2023,https:/www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Ar

129、ticles/2023/02/24/wage-price-spiral-risks-still-contained-latest-data-suggests.Bove,Tristan,“Years of global supply chain chaos could mean a nearshoring jackpot for the Americas in 2023”,Fortune,23 December 2022,https:/ panic about the panic,says top bank regulator”,POLITICO,28March 2023,https:/www.

130、politico.eu/article/pay-attention-market-panic-banks-deutsche-bank-cretis-suisse-regulator-dominique-laboureix-warn/.Bureau of Labor Statistics,“Employment Situation Summary”,7 April 2023a,https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.Bureau of Labor Statistics,“Consumer Price Index Summary”,12 Apr

131、il 2023b,https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.Chew,Amy,“Southeast Asia the new China for supply chains:business group”,Al Jazeera,7 March 2023,https:/ like the IRA:European firms lured by simplicity of US green subsidies”,9 March 2023,https:/ Economists OutlookEuropean Central Bank,Monetary p

132、olicy decisions Press Release,16 March 2023,https:/www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230316 aad5249f30.en.html.European Commission,“Business and consumer survey results for March 2023”,30 March 2023.https:/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-03/bcs_2023_03_en.pdf.Eurostat,“E

133、uro area annual inflation down to 6.9%”,31 March 2023,https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/16324747/2-31032023-AP-EN.pdf/e1ba8561-cfa9-6734-3be3-e0ca47d635b6?version=1.0&t=1680191097589.Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,Remarks by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg at the Institute of Inte

134、rnational Bankers,6 March 2023,https:/www.fdic.gov/news/speeches/2023/spmar0623.html?source=govdelivery&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery.Federal Reserve,Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation Press Release,22 March 2023,https:/www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/moneta

135、ry20230322a1.htm.Federal Reserve Bank of New York,Global Supply Chain Pressure Index(GSCPI),March2023,https:/www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive.Foreign Affairs,“Is the Global Economy Headed Toward a Recession?”,28 March 2023,https:/ Monetary Fund,World Economic Outlook Report,Apri

136、l 2023a,“A Rocky Recovery”,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023.International Monetary Fund,Global Financial Stability Report,April 2023b,“Safeguarding Financial Stability amid High Inflation and Geopolitical Risks”,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publicat

137、ions/GFSR/Issues/2023/04/11/global-financial-stability-report-april-2023.Kumar,Manoj,“Japan proposes industrial hub in Bangladesh with supply chains to India”,Reuters,11 April 2023,https:/ Korea to Strengthen Supply Chain Cooperation with India”,Bloomberg,9 April 2023,https:/ Economists OutlookLawde

138、r,David,“Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes”,Reuters,15 April 2023,https:/ tumult in Treasuries:are hedge funds partly to blame?”,FinancialTimes,17 March 2023,https:/ the pulse of shifting supply chains”,26 August 2022,https:/ der Watt,Diana,Dai,Xin,Rasheed,

139、Mahir,“Chinas reopening spillovers may be more ripples than waves”,Swiss Re Institute,13 February 2023,https:/ Bond Trading May Be Sending a Grim Signal About the Economy”,The New York Times,24 March 2023,https:/ Food Crisis Update:Recent Developments,Outlook,and IMF Engagement”,IMF Note 2023/002,In

140、ternational Monetary Fund,12 April 2023,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/IMF-Notes/Issues/2023/04/12/Global-Food-Crisis-Update-Recent-Developments-Outlook-and-IMF-Engagement-531948.Strohecker,Karin,Flasseur,Vincent,“Global central banks keep up inflation fight in March”,Reuters,3 April 2023,https:

141、/ Economist,“The destructive new logic that threatens globalisation”,12 January 2023,https:/ Economist,“After Credit Suisses demise,attention turns to Deutsche Bank”,24 March 2023a,https:/ Economist,“America risks propping up zombie banks”,30 March 2023b,https:/ World Bank,Global Economic Prospects,

142、January 2023,https:/www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects.25Chief Economists OutlookTimiraos,Nick,“Bank Failures,Market Turmoil Fuel Bets on a Pause in Fed Interest-Rate Increases”,The Wall Street Journal,15 March 2023,https:/ Nations Industrial Development Organization,Global I

143、ndustrial Policy:Measurement and Results,March 2023,https:/www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2023-04/IID%20Policy%20Brief%201%20-%20Global%20Industrial%20Policy%20-%20Measurment%20and%20Results%20-%20FINAL%2029-03.pdf.World Economic Forum,Chief Economists Outlook,November 2021,https:/www.wefor

144、um.org/reports/chief-economists-outlook-e560dba5a0/.World Economic Forum,Chief Economists Outlook,September 2022,https:/www.weforum.org/reports/chief-economists-outlook-sep-2022/.26Chief Economists OutlookContributors The World Economic Forum would like to thank the members of the Community of Chief

145、 Economists for their thought leadership and guidance.We also thank the members of the broader core community of the Centre for the New Economy and Society for their ongoingcommitment and contributions to addressing several of the factors presented inthis outlook.Figures are based on 33 survey respo

146、nses.We would like to thank in particular all community members who completed the survey and contributed to this edition of the Outlook through community discussions.We are grateful to our colleagues in the Centre for the New Economy and Society for helpful suggestions and comments,in particular to

147、Jesse Caemmerer,Roberto Crotti,Philipp Grosskurth and Sriharsha Masabathula,in the Economic Growth,Revivaland Transformation team.Thank you to Martha Howlett and Laurence Denmark for copyediting,graphic design and layout.The views expressed in this briefing do not necessarily represent the views of

148、the World Economic Forum nor those of its Members and Partners.This briefing is a contribution to the World Economic Forums insight and interaction activities and is published to elicit comments and further debate.World Economic Forum Aengus Collins,Head,Economic Growth,Revival and Transformation,Ce

149、ntre for the New Economy and Society Kateryna Karunska,Insight Specialist,Economic Growth,Revival and Transformation,Centre for the New Economy and SocietySaadia Zahidi,Managing Director,World Economic Forum and Head,Centre for the New Economy and Society27Chief Economists OutlookAndr Almeida,SonaeM

150、ansueto Almeida,Banco BTG Pactual Shusong Ba,Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing(HKEX)Rima Bhatia,Gulf International Bank(GIB)Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak,Boston Consulting Group(BCG)Tomas Castagnino,AccentureJuan Cerruti,Santander Samy Chaar,Lombard OdierLong Chen,Alibaba GroupAhmet imenoglu,Ko Holding Pe

151、dro Conceio,United Nations Development Programme(UNDP)Gregory Daco,EY-ParthenonPaul Donovan,UBS Bricklin Dwyer,MastercardCarsten Fink,World Intellectual Property Organization(WIPO)David Folkerts-Landau,Deutsche Bank Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,International Monetary Fund(IMF)Svenja Gudell,Indeed Jrme

152、Haegeli,Swiss Re Management Jonathan Hall,Uber TechnologiesEthan Harris,Bank of AmericaKaren Harris,Bain&Company Janet Henry,HSBC Fernando Honorato Barbosa,Banco Bradesco Beata Javorcik,European Bank for Reconstruction and Development(EBRD)Nick Johnson,UnileverIra Kalish,DeloitteSeisaku Kameda,Sompo

153、 Institute PlusChristian Keller,BarclaysSteffen Kern,European Securities and Markets AuthorityRazia Khan,Standard Chartered BankRaja Asad Khan,Saudi National BankKarin Kimbrough,LinkedIn Kyle Kretschman,Spotify Gordon Liao,Circle Internet Financial AcknowledgementsMembers of the Community of Chief E

154、conomists 28Chief Economists OutlookGiulio Martini,Lord Abbett Huw McKay,BHP Guy Miller,Zurich Insurance Gilles Moc,AXA Investment Millan Mulraine,Ontario Teachers PensionPlanDirk-Jan Omtzigt,United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA)Ralph Ossa,World Trade Organization(

155、WTO)Eric Parrado,Inter-American Development BankErik Peterson,KearneySandra Phlippen,ABN AMROSaad Rahim,TrafiguraDebora Revoltella,European Investment Bank(EIB)Nela Richardson,Automatic Data Processing(ADP)Michael Schwarz,MicrosoftJorge Sicilia,BBVA Ludovic Subran,Allianz Areef Suleman,Islamic Devel

156、opment BankHal R.Varian,Google Eirik Waerness,Equinor Ghislaine Weder,NestlCoram Williams,Adecco World Economic Forum9193 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland Tel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.orgThe World Economic Forum,committed to improving the state of the world,is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.The Forum engages the foremost political,business and other leaders of society to shape global,regional and industry agendas.