1、Clean Hydrogen Deployment in the Europe-MENA Region from 2030 to 2050A Technical and Socio-Economic AssessmentJan Frederik Braun,Felix Frischmuth,Norman Gerhardt,Maximilian Pfennig,Richard Schmitz,and Martin Wietschel(Fraunhofer CINES)Benjamin Carlier,Arnaud Rveillre,Gilles Warluzel,and Didier Wesol

2、y(Geostock)Fraunhofer CINES|2This paper assesses the technical feasibility and socio-economic aspects of the European Unions(EU)REPowerEU target of producing,importing,and transporting 20 million tonnes(Mt)of clean hydrogen by 2030.Due to their geographical proximity,low-cost hydrogen production pot

3、ential and existing gas infra-structure,six MENA(Middle East and North Africa)countries are considered key players for realizing the REPowerEU import target:Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Libya,Egypt,and Saudi Arabia.The central questions addressed by this paper are:What hydrogen production and import volu

4、mes are technically feasible in the Europe-MENA region?Can imports from the MENA countries be integrated into the existing European natural gas grid?How much technical storage capacity is available for hydrogen in the Europe-MENA region?What socio-economic issues must be considered in a strategic an

5、alysis of clean hydrogen deployment in the Europe-MENA region?AbstractFraunhofer CINES|3Main fi ndings .4Aim.61.Introduction .72.Methodology .92.1.Technical-economic assessment:Fraunhofer SCOPE SD and IMAGINE .92.2.Technical and socio-economic assessment:Fraunhofer Global Power-to-X(PtX)Atlas .113.C

6、lean hydrogen in Europe.153.1.Hydrogen production and consumption:Technical-economic assessment.163.2.Infrastructure and storage:Technical and strategic aspects .194.Clean hydrogen in the MENA region .264.1.Technical-economic assessment.274.2.Theoretical storage potential in salt caverns .334.3.Soci

7、o-economic assessment.395.Conclusion.426.References.44Table of ContentsFraunhofer CINES|4Main fi ndingsFigure 1:European hydrogen production and import from MENA countries(2020-2050).Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).The analysis presented here is a starting point

8、for further research on the technical and socio-economic aspects of the nascent Europe-MENA hydrogen economy and for testing the feasibility of strategies like REPowerEU.Hydrogen deployments technical and socio-economic dimensions including strict sustainability criteria and domestic and primary ene

9、rgy demand must be considered before the export potential from MENA countries to Europe can be determined.For almost half of its hydrogen demand and up to 2050,Europe will depend on hydrogen imports from the MENA countries selected here based on low production costs,geographical proximity,and existi

10、ng infrastructure.The bulk of imports from these countries to Europe must occur via pipeline.Simultaneous-ly,from 2030 onwards,there is also a substantial role for ammonia imports via ship.This paper indicates a signifi cant techno-economic potential for hydrogen exports from Morocco and Tunisia in

11、2030,follow-ed by Libya,Algeria,Egypt,and Saudi Arabia from 2045 onwards.Figure 1 summarizes these fi ndings.Fraunhofer CINES|5Fraunhofer CINES|5Main findingsJan Frederik Braun,Felix Frischmuth,Norman Gerhardt,Maximilian Pfennig,Richard Schmitz,and Martin Wietschel(Fraunhofer CINES)Benjamin Carlier,

12、Arnaud Rveillre,Gilles Warluzel,and Didier Wesoly(Geostock)Strict sustainability criteria and domestic and primary energy demand must be considered before the hydrogen export potential from MENA countries to Europe can be determined“Our technical,cost-optimization analysis shows that Europes hydroge

13、n production capacity could reach 143 TWh(or 4.3 Mt)by 2030 and might reach the REPowerEU 10 Mt(or 330 TWh)H2 per year pro-duction target sometime between 2035 and 2040.Our analysis is based on several scenario analyses,including one from the European Association for the Cooperation of Transmission

14、System Operators(ENTSOG and ENTSO-E),and assumptions regarding the expansion potential of renewable energy sources in Europe by 2030 and the implementation of the EUs climate targets.Regarding sectoral hydrogen demand in Europe,our model-based analysis shows that 11.4 Mt con-stitutes a very ambitiou

15、s and maximum hydrogen demand that can be met by 2030.Up to 2030,Europes current salt cavern storage facilities are suffi cient for repurposing,but these will no longer be adequate after 2030.The analysis shows the need for additional repurposed and new hydro-gen storage capacities of 216 TWh by 205

16、0.An early and purely theoretical analysis of the technical potential for hydrogen storage in salt caverns in the selected MENA countries shows good potential in Morocco and Algeria and good to medium poten-tial in Saudi Arabia.For the countries with limited storage potential in salt caverns,other a

17、lternatives need to be investigated,like repurposing depleted oil and gas fi elds.Up to 2030,there is substantial potential offered by repurposing the existing gas infrastructure in Europe for hydrogen transport.From 2050 onwards,the analysis shows the need for new pipeline capacity between MENA cou

18、ntries and Europe.Any pipeline planning needs to take into account various aspects,including socio-economic and geopolitical considerations.”Fraunhofer CINES|6AimThis paper assesses the technical feasibility and socio-economic aspects of the European Unions(EU)REPowerEU target of producing,importing

19、,and transporting 20 million tonnes(Mt)of clean hydrogen by 20301.Clean hydrogen refers to renewable and natural gas-based variants with extremely low methane emissions and high carbon capture rates(IRENA 2022).Very high capture rates imply a CO2 capture rate of 95%by 2030 and 99%either well before

20、or around 2050(House of Commons 2022).Due to their geographical proximity,low-cost hydrogen production potential and existing gas infrastructure,six MENA(Middle East and North Africa)countries are considered key players for realizing the REPowerEU import target:Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Libya,Egypt,an

21、d Saudi Arabia.For the technical assessment of clean hydrogen production,demand,transport and storage,the paper links the Fraunhofer energy system model SCOPE SD with the new gas market model IMAGINE.The energy system model SCOPE SD covers the power,heat,and transport sectors to model cost-optimizat

22、ion and long-term decarbonization scenarios.IMAGINE minimizes all the investment and operation costs for hydrogen and methane infrastructures and markets in daily resolution and for several planning periods.Linking the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE models enables a cost-optimal analysis of clean hydrogen pro

23、duction,demand,transport,and storage developments for a given hydrogen demand in the EU.For socio-econo-mic considerations related to clean hydrogen deployment across the Europe-MENA region,this paper uses research approaches applied by the Fraunhofer Cluster of Excellence Integrated Energy Systems(

24、CINES)in projects such as the Global Hydrogen Potential Atlas(HYPAT)and Global PtX Atlas2.Based on secondary data analysis,Geostock provides insights into the technical storage capacity of salt caverns in the six key MENA countries.This research on the nascent hydrogen economy across the Europe-MENA

25、 region provi-des a strong basis from which to consider the feasibility of more strategic ambitions.1 The authors thank Martin Lambert(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies),Suhail Z.Shatila(APICORP),Magnolia Tovar(Clean Air Task Force),Benedikt Hckner,Christopher Hebling,Anne Held,Benjamin Pfl uger,M

26、ario Ragwitz,Bastian Weissenburger,and Marijke Welisch(Fraunhofer CINES)for their valuable con-tributions.2 For more information on HYPAT,see:https:/hypat.de/hypat-en/.For more information on the Fraunhofer Global PtX-Atlas and the methodology used,see:https:/maps.iee.fraunhofer.de/Global PtX-Atlas/

27、and https:/devkopsys.de/methoden/.Fraunhofer CINES|71.IntroductionREPowerEU,the European Unions(EU)current energy security strategy developed in response to Russias war against Ukraine,includes the ambition to reach 20 Mt of renewable hydrogen production,import and transport,i.e.,10 Mt of production

28、 and 10 Mt of imports(or 660 TWh H2/yr.)by 2030(European Com-mission 2022a).Based on the expectation that supply capacity for transporting hydrogen into Europe is established,REPowerEU assumes 6 Mt will be imported via pipeline as hydrogen and 4 Mt as ammonia or other hydrogen derivatives,probably i

29、mported by ship(European Commission 2022b;Lambert 2022).By leveraging its strong potential,the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region is well-positioned to supply around 10%to 20%of the global hydrogen market by 2050,or between approximately 42 Mt and 84 Mt(Al-Ashmawy and Shatila 2022;IEA 2022a)3.

30、Regarding large-scale energy transport,molecules can be transported more quickly and cost-effi ciently than electrons.This is one of the reasons a new Europe-MENA energy cooperation could emerge based on hydrogen,as this could be transported via existing pipelines with some infrastructural adjustmen

31、t,i.e.,coating(Hafner 2022).Due to their geographical proximity,low-cost production potential,and existing gas infrastructure,this paper considers six MENA countries to be the key players in realizing the EUs target of importing 6 Mt of hydrogen by pipeline and 4 Mt of ammonia.These countries are:Mo

32、roccoTunisiaAlgeriaLibyaEgyptSaudi ArabiaUnlike REPowerEU,with its exclusive focus on renewable hydrogen,this paper focuses on clean hydrogen production and demand in the Europe-MENA region,i.e.,the EU member states,Great Britain,Norway,Switzerland,and the six MENA countries.The focus on clean hydro

33、gen acknowledges the importance of renewable and fossil gas-based hydrogen for countries in Europe and the MENA region.It is argued that 3 The World Bank(2021)uses the term Middle East and North Africa(MENA)to cover an extensive region of twenty-one countries.This paper focuses on six of these.Fraun

34、hofer CINES|81.Introductionthe land use and infrastructure issues related to rapidly scaling up the necessary additional and dedicated renewable energy for green hydrogen production across the Europe-MENA region are highly challenging.These include access to cheap capital,additional renewable electr

35、icity consumption,and high population density.Furthermore,current renewables capacity is mainly destined for decarbonizing national electricity systems.These combined issues mean that the rapid deployment of renewable hydrogen from the MENA region to Europe is extremely challenging and should theref

36、ore be supplemented by fossil fuel-based hyd-rogen options.However,these options should include requirements for associated CCS,including a strict certifi cation system for low-carbon gases based on a life-cycle assessment of GHG emissions(Azadegan et al.2022).Using the REPowerEU target of 20 Mt of

37、hydrogen production and import as a starting point for this analysis,i.e.,10 Mt of production within the EU and 10 Mt of imports(or 660 TWh H2/yr.),and focu-sing on the period between 2030 and 2050,the central questions addressed by this paper are:What hydrogen production and import volumes are tech

38、nically feasible in the Europe-MENA region?Can imports from the MENA countries be integrated into the existing European natural gas grid?How much technical storage capacity is available for hydrogen in the Europe-MENA region?What socio-economic issues must be considered in a strategic analysis of cl

39、ean hydrogen deployment in the Europe-MENA region?This paper aims to contribute to the literature by addressing the technical and socio-economic dimensions of clean hydrogen deployment in the Europe-MENA region.These dimensions include indicators such as the cost of production,transport,capital,prim

40、ary energy demand,water availability,land use and pro-tected areas,distance to existing infrastructure and political stability.This paper argues that technical and socio-economic dimensions should underpin strategic analyses and decision-making on clean hydrogen deployment across the Europe-MENA reg

41、ion.Fraunhofer CINES|92.Methodology 2.1.Technical-economic assessment:Fraunhofer SCOPE SD and IMAGINEThis paper analyses the nascent hydrogen market and infrastructure development across the Europe-MENA region by soft-linking two economic models developed by Fraunhofer.The term“soft-linked”refers to

42、 the fact that the modelling is carried out sequentially,that two separate objective functions are pursued and that the results are not merged in one cost-optimization tool.The main methodological approach links the existing pan-European cross-sectoral capacity expansion planning framework SCOPE Sce

43、nario Development(SD)with the market-based expansion planning framework IMAGINE(Infrastructure and Market transfor-mations for Gas In Europe).There is a detailed description of this approach in the literature(Frischmuth,Schmitz,Hrtel 2022).The two models are soft linked by passing data from model to

44、 the other on fuel demand for each European country and domestic hydrogen production via electrolysis.SCOPE SD is a bottom-up and techno-economic partial equilibrium model and able to develop coherent long-term,low-carbon(or net-zero)energy system scenarios in Europe for a given target scenario year

45、.As a large-scale linear programming(LP)approach,SCOPE SD minimizes the generation,storage,and cross-sectoral consumer technology investments and system operating costs.Figure 2 illustrates SCOPE SDs structure,components,and typical input and output data.The upper part shows the input and output dat

46、a,including interactions with technology options(lower part)in the corresponding markets and policy instruments(middle part).The different colors of the dots for the technology options and frames for the markets indicate the multiple participation of technology options in the corresponding markets o

47、r policy instruments(Schmitz,Naversen,Hrtel 2023).Figure 2:Schematic overview of the pan-European cross-sectoral capacity expansion planning framework SCOPE SD.Source:Schmitz,Naversen,Hrtel(2023).Fraunhofer CINES|102.Methodology SCOPE SD covers the traditional power system and all relevant technolog

48、y combinations in the industry,building,and transport sectors.Each European country,i.e.,the EU member states(excluding Malta and Cyprus),Norway,Great Britain,and Switzerland,is represented by one node.All units,i.e.,generation,storage,cross-sectoral demand technology options and their most importan

49、t parameters(e.g.,costs,potentials,and operating characteristics)and relevant interactions are modelled at one-hour intervals.By explicitly modelling national and pan-European fuel markets,it is possible to distinguish between the use of fossil fuels,on the one hand,and synthetic renewable fuels,on

50、the other hand,which are either produced domestically or imported from the MENA region.To ensure net-zero greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions in future scenarios,national and international GHG emission budgets are implemented as the driving force behind investments in clean technologies(Schmitz,Naversen,Hr

51、tel 2023).Detailed informa-tion on input data,assumptions,and use cases for SCOPE SD can be found in recent publications(Bttger and Hrtel 2022;Hrtel and Ghosh 2022;Hrtel and Korps 2021;Frischmuth and Hrtel 2022;Schmitz,Naversen,Hrtel 2023).Linking the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE models involves the followi

52、ng steps(Figure 3).Figure 3:SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage.Source:Frischmuth,Schmitz,Hrtel(2022).In the initial step(upper part of Figure 3),SCOPE SD generates medium-and long-term scenarios for the future net-zero European energy system.These scenarios are based on the historical meteorological

53、 year 2012,which refl ects hourly renewables feed-in.This year was selected because it features a two-week period of cold,dark doldrums,or“kalte Dunkelfl aute”in German,and is therefore well-suited to represent extreme weather conditions and their implication for design choices by the modelling fram

54、ework(ENTSOG and ENTSO-E 2022).The scenarios can include up to seven expansion periods from 2020 to 2050 in fi ve-year steps.In the second step(lower part of Figure 3),the SCOPE SD results are used as input for IMAGI-NE.This input includes sectoral hydrogen and methane demands,hourly demand profi le

55、s,and hydrogen production schedules from domestic electrolysers.While SCOPE SD calculates individual scenario years,IMAGINE represents a closed path optimization.Figure 4:Schematic overview of the market-based expansion planning framework IMAGINE.Source:Frischmuth,Schmitz,Hrtel(2022).Fraunhofer CINE

56、S|112.Methodology Figure 4 gives a schematic overview of the market-based expansion planning framework IMAGINE.It shows the structure and principal components of IMAGINE,including the multi-fold participation and inter-actions of technology options in the corresponding markets or according to specif

57、i c policy instruments.IMAGINE is a linear programming(LP)optimization model in the Python-based Pyomo package(Hart et al.2011;Bynum et al.2021).It is a bottom-up,techno-economic partial equilibrium model that makes deterministic,multi-period capacity expansion and system operation decisions for a s

58、cenario pathway.As in SCOPE SD,each country,i.e.,the EU member states(excluding Malta and Cyprus),Norway,Great Britain,and Switzerland,is represented by one node.Additionally,so-called export-only countries are also repre-sented by a respective and singular node.The term export-only refers to the fa

59、ct that these countries are represented exclusively with their export potential,i.e.,without domestic demand.The system operation descriptions correspond to economic dispatch formulations.The model captures different national and global hydrogen and methane production options and national day-ahead

60、markets integrated through a cross-border exchange.By modelling national and pan-European markets,it is possible to differentia-te fossil use from synthetic renewable energy carriers produced domestically or imported.Frischmuth,Schmitz,and Hrtel(2022)describe the model in detail with all the mathema

61、tical formulas and restrictions.This paper links the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE models for clean hydrogen deployment across the Europe-MENA region for two reasons:First,this can couple the electricity and hydrogen markets on a European(and global)scale.Second,it enables path-dependent investment decisions

62、 or the avoidance of“stranded assets”,and optimal system operation decisions regarding European electricity,hydrogen,and methane markets(Frischmuth,Schmitz,Hrtel 2022).Fraunhofer CINES|122.Methodology SCOPE SD considers only a simplifi ed representation of gas and fuel infrastructure developments(no

63、 gas storage or gas pipelines).IMAGINE focuses explicitly on production,transport,and storage developments.It uses time-series data and structural inputs to minimize all costs incurred for the investment and operation of pipeline and storage facilities and the import and domestic production of renew

64、able and clean fuels.Also,the model coupling approach is used because coordinating power and gas markets in net-neutral systems requires optimal temporal granularity and must consider the interaction of H2 and CH4 infrastruc-ture,and multiple sourcing strategies.Hydrogen use in the transportation,el

65、ectricity,and heating sectors is represented in the model as an endogenous investment decision,while hydrogen use in industry(e.g.,steel,cement,chemicals)and heavy-duty transport is specifi ed exogenously.Regarding the limitations of this approach,IMAGINE provides a high-level indication of the futu

66、re develop-ment of an integrated power and gas infrastructure.Simultaneously,the modelling and linking with SCOPE SD ignores some physical effects and market design issues.The fact that IMAGINE is formulated as an LP optimization model means that no decisions are made regarding individual investment

67、s in pipelines or sto-rage.As every pipeline project is highly specifi c,simplifying pipeline cost parameters is necessary.Further-more,a transport modelling approach simplifi es the physical connections in gas networks.2.2.Technical and socio-economic assessment:Fraunhofer Global Power-to-X(PtX)Atl

68、asFraunhofers Global PtX Atlas is a Web Geographical Information System(GIS)application that identifi es potential production sites of electricity-based fuels worldwide up to 2050,including hydrogen(gaseous and liquid)and its derivatives(ammonia,methanol)(Fraunhofer IEE 2022).The Atlass technical an

69、d eco-nomic assessment is based on high temporal(one hour)and spatial(one km)resolution data.While the primary goal of the PtX Atlas is to analyze which regions could produce signifi cant amounts of PtX fuels and at what cost,it also considers the available land and prevailing weather conditions.Oth

70、er factors,such as local water availability,protected areas,and distance to infrastructure,are defi ned as exclusion criteria4.Table 1 summarizes the criteria that underpin the land potential for PtX generation.The techno-economic potential for each country is identifi ed under strict sustainability

71、 criteria based on the area results and the modelled cost-optimal PtX system design.4 Regarding weather conditions,the analysis for 2050 is based on historical weather data from 2008-2012.Further research should focus on the effects of climate change on local prevailing weather conditions and the su

72、bsequent PtX potentials.Table 1:Catalogue of criteria for identifying suitable PtX production locations.Source:Pfennig et al.(2022).Fraunhofer CINES|13CriteriaExclusion criterionArgumentPtX specifi cDistance to ports 500 kmDistance to pipelines 50 kmDistance to cities 200 kmDistance to the national

73、coastline 50 kmMarine protected areasCoastline along marine protected areas with a buffer of 4 kmDistance to an inland water source 50 kmWater stress low2.Methodology CriteriaExclusion criterionArgumentGeneralLand useForests,built-up areas,cropland,water bodies,snow,and ice areasSlope 5 (1 km resolu

74、tion)Settlement areasAll settlement areas with a buffer of 1 kmPopulation density 50 inhabitants/km2Protected areasNature and landscape conservation and potentially critical habitats with a buffer(1 km)EconomicLCOE wind 40 Euro/MWhLCOE photovoltaics 30 Euro/MWhRegarding CAPEX and OPEX,the estimation

75、 of PtX fuel production costs is based on an investment and dispatch optimization included in Fraunhofers SCOPE SD optimization model.The techno-economic assumptions for the scenario years 2030 and 2050 are summarized in Table 2.The Global PtX Atlas can also be used for socio-economic analysis.It yi

76、elds the socio-economic potential of a PtX exporting country as an average value based on the six thematic areas of economics,politics,society,technology,natural conditions,and proximity to Germany.The analysis uses the individual values of forty indicators and seventy associated indices in the six

77、thematic areas.All indices are based on stu-dies,calculations and statistics from public national and international organizations or private consulting groups.Intervals are formed from the individual values of the indices,each of which is assigned a value between 1 and 5(1=highly negative,5=highly p

78、ositive).The average value of the indices shows the value of each indicator,and the average value of all indicators gives the“fi nal value”for a topic area.Finally,the average value from all topic areas provides information about the socio-economic conditions for building a PtX economy.Table 2:CAPEX

79、,OPEX,and effi ciency percentage of selected technologies.Source:Global PtX-Atlas.TechnologyCAPEXOPEX(%of CAPEX)Effi ciency(%)Scenario year20302050Unit2030/205020302050Wind power plant1,052,000886,000EUR/MWel4.0%-Photovoltaic plant425,000321,000EUR/MWel2.5%-Battery storage479,500479,500EUR/MWhel1.0%

80、93.8%93.8%PEM electrolyser590,000470,000EUR/MWel5.0%68.0%71.0%Compression3,9003,900EUR/kWel4.0%95.2%95.2%Fraunhofer CINES|14It is essential to point out that the Global PtX Atlas has limitations.For example,strict exclusion criteria for nearby infrastructure availability like water sources,ports,pip

81、elines,and cities are defi ned to identify the best-located regions(Pfennig et al.2022).As a result,in some regions,the potential areas are enormously restricted,e.g.,to isolated regions in a countrys interior.For the Global PtX Atlas 2.0,it is currently being considered whether to adjust these stri

82、ct exclusion criteria.Other issues that need further research include the following:A detailed downstream analysis requires site-specifi c criteria related to local conditions to consider all the factors infl uencing the suitability of a PtX site.The effects of climate change on local weather condit

83、ions and area identifi cation parameters(e.g.,water stress level).Water stress needs to be considered whether this plays a role as variable in hydrogen production as water usage here can be set up circular and adds very little cost.Point of water source might be a more accurate criterion.Measuring c

84、ountry-specifi c differences regarding future production costs of PtX fuels.Considering the load behavior of individual and all plant components to account for periods of repair and maintenance work as higher outage times would increase PtX generation costs.Considering other transport options beyond

85、 transportation by ship from the largest port of each country,for example,gaseous transport by pipeline from nearby regions.Examining the development of the global trade volume and market prices of the respective PtX markets based on multi-criteria approaches,transformation scenarios and detailed mo

86、delling of production and transport potentials and demand volumes.2.Methodology 5 Conventional production consists of captive and merchant reforming,which also includes partial oxidation and gasifi cation,and by-product hydrogen capacities from ethylene,styrene,and the electrolysis of brine.The aver

87、age production capacity utilization across Europe in 2020 was 76%.Fraunhofer CINES|15 3.Clean hydrogen in Europe In March 2022,the EUs new energy strategy REPowerEU introduced the EU goal of 10 Mt of renewable hydrogen production(or 330 TWh H2/yr.)by 2030(European Commission 2022a).This is an audaci

88、ous target,considering that Europes hydrogen capacity at the end of 2020 was approxi-mately 11.5 Mt per year,of which almost a hundred per cent(99.3%to be exact)constituted conventional capacity(Hydrogen Europe 2022)5.Figure 5:Hydrogen import(and ammonia),production and consumption in Europe(2020-20

89、50).Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).6 From Agora Energiewende and AFRY Management Consulting(2021),data from“Industrial hydrogen demand from 2020 to 2050 within the specifi c demand sectors in TWh per year”are used here.Table 3:Hydrogen import(and ammonia),produc

90、tion and consumption in Europe between 2020 and 2050(TWh).Source:Authors based on the model linkage of SCOPE SD and IMAGINE(2023).TWh2020202520302035204020452050H2 import(pipeline)049138147179327682H consumption04928041076811971871H2 production in Europe001432625898701189Ammonia import(H2 eq.)009595

91、959595Total production and import04937650486312921966Fraunhofer CINES|163.Clean hydrogen in Europe3.1.Hydrogen production and consumption:Technical-economic assessmentThe estimate resulting from linking SCOPE SD and IMAGINE is that Europe,i.e.,the EU member states excluding Malta and Cyprus but incl

92、uding Great Britain,Norway,and Switzerland,will reach a total rene-wable hydrogen production capacity of 4.3 Mt(143 TWh)by 2030 and 36 Mt(1189 TWh)by 2050.From this macroeconomic perspective of cost optimization,Europe will reach the REPowerEU target of 10 Mt(330 TWh)domestic hydrogen production som

93、etime between 2035 and 2040(Figure 5 and Table 3).The analysis in Figure 5 and Table 3 is based on several scenarios,including one from the European Asso-ciation for the Cooperation of Transmission System Operators(ENTSOG and ENTSO-E),and assumptions zregarding the expansion potential of renewable e

94、nergy sources in Europe by 2030 and the implementa-tion of the EUs climate targets(ENTSOG&ENTSO-E 2022).Regarding hydrogen consumption per sector,we show that Europe will require approximately 2000 TWh(or 60 Mt)of clean hydrogen by 2050.This ambitious scenario,which is used for optimization purposes

95、 in SCOPE SD and IMAGINE,is composed of several data sources(ENTSOG&ENTSO-E 2022;Netzentwick-lungsplan 2022;AGORA Energiewende and AFRY Management Consulting 2021)6.Our analysis based on the model linkage of SCOPE SD and IMAGINE in Figure 6 shows that 376 TWh(11.4 Mt)constitutes a very ambitious and

96、 maximum H2 demand realization that can be met in Europe by 2030.When breaking down the overall European consumption per sector over the same period,the analysis shows a dominant role for hydrogen as a feedstock in industry,increasing roles in transport and power and heating plants from 2040 onwards

97、,and a decrease in refi ning purposes(Figure 6).Figure 6:European sectoral hydrogen demand(TWh)between 2020 and 2050.Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).Fraunhofer CINES|173.Clean hydrogen in EuropeHydrogen consumption in the industry refers to furnaces and feedstock

98、s,and these are primarily the chemical and steel industry,but also the paper,food,non-metal,and non-metallic mineral indus-tries.Ammonia consumption will switch completely to green imports from 2030 onwards and stays constant over time.It is not defi ned here where these green imports will exactly c

99、ome from,but an option could be via shipping from Oman.Moving from the overall demand and supply at the European towards the country level,Figures 7a and 7b visualize the differences between production and demand per European country in 2030 and 2050,respectively.Fraunhofer CINES|183.Clean hydrogen

100、in EuropeFigure 7a:Hydrogen sectoral consumption(stacked bars)and production(line)in Europe in 2030(TWh)and excluding Latvia,Luxembourg,and Cyprus.Figure 7b:Hydrogen sectoral consumption(stacked bar)and production(line)in Europe*in 2050(TWh)and excluding Slovenia,Estonia,Latvia,and Cyprus.Source:Aut

101、hors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).Table 4:Hydrogen storage technologies and associated considerations.Source:Kuhn and Yovchev(2022).Fraunhofer CINES|193.Clean hydrogen in EuropeWhat stands out from these fi gures is that Germany will be Europes hydrogen import juggernaut,as

102、it faces a gap between production and sectoral consumption of approximately 1.8 Mt(60 TWh)in 2030 and almost 8 Mt(266 TWh)in 2050.Other countries that are poised to become signifi cant importers by 2050 are Belgium(4.3 Mt/144 TWh),Poland(3.8 Mt/126 TWh),the Netherlands(3.7 Mt/124 TWh),and Italy(1.6

103、Mt/53 TWh).Figures 7a and 7b also point towards a shift in consumption from 2030 to 2050,as hydrogen for refi ning purposes has disappeared almost completely and hydrogen usage in power plants and heavy-duty transport has started playing a signifi cant role.Overall,the modelling results underline th

104、e general assumption that north-western Europe,led by Germany,will be a signifi cant hydrogen importer.3.2.Infrastructure and storage:technical and strategic aspectsStorage infrastructure will be necessary to secure the supply of hydrogen imported from the MENA region and to help maintain the effi c

105、iency and affordability of the nascent regional markets.The best options for large-scale hydrogen storage are(new)salt caverns followed by depleted natural gas reservoirs(Table 4).Energy storagetypeH2 storage optionStor.cap.(TWh)Response/turn-around timeDurat.TRLDeploy timef.Dem.side appl.Hazard tox

106、icityGeolog.New salt cavern1.5Fast response(1 hour)Mul-tiple annual cyclesHighHighVarious users across power,industry,and heatLowRepurpo-sed hydro-carbon reservoir9Slow response(12-24 hours)Single sea-sonal cyclesLowHighLarge-scale seaso-nal heat demandMediumImportH2 pipelineFast responsen/aHighMedi

107、umMultiple users across power,industry,and heatMediumAmmoniaSlow res-ponse(days depen-dent on shipping)n/aMediumHighLimited due to response time,target large pre-dictable swings in demand such as heatHighSalt caverns have outstanding properties such as high integrity(tightness of gas),inertness(limi

108、ted reac-tions),increased fl exibility(multiple annual cycles),and moderate investments and operating costs(Kuhn and Yovchev,2022).A recent study estimates that the technical potential for hydrogen storage in Europe is 2,596 Mt(84.8 PWh)of hydrogen in caverns in bedded salt and salt domes located ou

109、tside of rural,urban and protected areas and away from major infrastructure(Caglayan et al.2020).It is important to point out that the term“technical potential”means the maximum storage potential that could be utilized without considering ecological,economic,or social aspects(Figure 8).Considering t

110、hese additional aspects reduces the realizable potential for hydrogen storage.Another fact is that the technical potential is unequally distributed across Europe.As much as 42%of Europes total theoretical hydrogen storage capacity is in Germanys onshore and North Sea areas,equivalent to 1,079 Mt(35.

111、61 PWh)of hydrogen.The Netherlands is next with 315 Mt(10.4 PWh),followed by Great Britain with 272 Mt(9 PWh)and runners-up Denmark,Norway,and Poland.Storing hydrogen in depleted natural gas reservoirs is potentially possible by repurposing existing facilities.The advantages of this type of reservoi

112、r lie in their availability,large capacity,proven tightness for hydro-carbons and operational experience.However,the disadvantages are their low technological readiness level(TRL),the risk of geo-chemical or microbiological reactions,the need for higher amounts of cushion gas,the tightness of the re

113、servoir for hydrogen that needs to be examined,and the gas treatment that can increase the costs of storage.The literature indicates that 80 operational depleted natural gas reservoirs are currently being used across Europe to store natural gas(Kuhn and Yovchev,2022).Hydrogen storage in depleted nat

114、ural gas reservoirs has not yet been demonstrated commercially.The total technical working gas capacity is 842.28 TWh of natural gas,which would be 202.14 TWh when converted to hydrogen(Kuhn and Yovchev 2022).Fraunhofer CINES|203.Clean hydrogen in EuropeFigure 8:Different types of hydrogen storage p

115、otential.Source:Kuhn and Yovchev(2022).Fraunhofer CINES|213.Clean hydrogen in EuropeFollowing a decrease in natural gas storage capacity,the analysis shows an economically optimized assess-ment of the long-term expansion of hydrogen storage in salt caverns up to 2050,which would amount to around 216

116、 TWh of technical potential by 2050.Most of this would consist of new capacity(Figure 9).Figure 9:Decrease in natural gas storage and expansion of hydrogen storage in salt caverns in Europe between 2020 and 2050(TWh).Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).In this analys

117、is,the need for hydrogen storage before 2045 is low,because it is assumed that hydrogen is mainly needed in the industry sector,which shows limited seasonal variation in demand patterns.From 2045 onwards,however,hydrogen demand takes off in end-use sectors like transport,heating,and elect-ricity,whi

118、ch are much more prone to seasonal variation.This analysis does not incorporate dispatch or load fl ow restrictions within markets,which could lead to increased storage needs.It is also endogenous to the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model that it does not consider options that align with reaching the REPowe

119、rEU target.These options include an EU Strategic Hydrogen Reserve with 90 days of net hydrogen imports and storage options beyond salt caverns like empty gas fi elds or ammonia tanks(Van Wijk,Westphal,Braun 2022).These strategic considerations would drastically scale up the EUs hydrogen storage requ

120、irements and capabilities as early as 2030 and would be hugely challenging considering the short timeframe and still evolving regulatory framework.Fraunhofer CINES|223.Clean hydrogen in EuropeDeveloping 216 TWh of hydrogen storage capacity across Europe should be regarded as a massive ende-avor rela

121、tive to todays existing repurposing potential of a maximum of 49 TWh.Figure 10 illustrates the fi gures at country level across Europe.Regarding hydrogen capacity(new and repurposed),this underta-king needs to be carried out in fi ve European countries:Germany,France,Great Britain,Poland,and the Net

122、herlands.Figure 10:Natural gas,repurposed and new hydrogen storage capacity across Europe(TWh)between 2020 and 2050.Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).Fraunhofer CINES|233.Clean hydrogen in EuropeThe technical estimations regarding imports from the MENA region and d

123、omestic production also signifi-cantly affect Europes infrastructure requirements.Figure 11 shows the decline of the natural gas pipeline infrastructure and favors the expansion of hydrogen pipelines,including the considerable and required repurposing potential and the new construction needed by 205

124、0.Figure 11:European pipeline transmission capacity for natural gas and hydrogen(2020-2050).Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).It is possible to integrate larger quantities of hydrogen by repurposing existing natural gas-based infra-structure in Europe.Here,MENA imp

125、orts by pipeline can contribute to European energy security in the medium term.Figure 11 also shows that substantial new hydrogen pipeline capacity is required from 2050 onwards.From 2050 onwards,Figure 12 shows the need for new pipeline capacity from MENA rope,especially between Morocco and Spain,b

126、etween Algeria and Italy and from Egypt/Saudi Arabia to(possibly)Turkey.Fraunhofer CINES|243.Clean hydrogen in EuropeFigure 12:Hydrogen(new and repurposed)pipeline transport capacity(2020-2050).Source:Authors based on the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE model linkage(2023).Note that this macroeconomic and tech

127、nical analysis is focused on cost optimization.The war in Ukraine and REPowerEU has highlighted the increasing importance of the strategic dimension of Europes hydro-gen economy ambitions.Box 1 provides an example and suggests redesigning the proposed and politically controversial EastMed natural ga

128、s pipeline for clean hydrogen as soon as 2030.Fraunhofer CINES|253.Clean hydrogen in EuropeIn the Eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea,natural gas has been found under the seabed in areas belonging to Egypt,Israel,Turkey,and Cyprus,and concessions for exploration have been granted.The EastMed pipel

129、ine was meant to transport gas from offshore deposits near Israel and Egypt across 1,250kilo-meters via Cyprus and Greece to European markets using the Poseidon interconnector pipeline in Italy.The problem with the original natural gas-based project is that the US government pulled its support in ea

130、rly 2022,citing environmental reasons for its decision to no longer support energy projects that are not green,the lack of the projects economic and commercial viability,but also the fact that the project was creating tensions in the region by excluding Turkey(Stamouli 2022).In compliance with the a

131、ims and ambitions of REPowerEU,there are plans to designate and develop this EastMed pipeline as a clean hydrogen pipeline(Van Wijk,Westphal,Braun 2022).The Mediterranean natural gas could be converted into hydrogen and solid carbon,e.g.,via methane pyrolysis,and fed into the EastMed pipeline.The Ea

132、stMed hydrogen pipeline could be linked with production sites in NEOM in northwest Saudi Arabia and Sharm El-Sheik,and others in Egypt.This pipe-l ine linkage would allow these MENA countries to transport clean hydro gen to the European hydrogen back-bone.Making the EastMed hydrogen-ready would serv

133、e the decarbonization ambitions of the involved countries and diversify Europes transport and supply options.Simultaneously,the EastMed clean hydrogen pipeline would require the resolution of a range of high-level political issues,including long-running tensions between Turkey and neighboring countr

134、ies,plus the fact that the EastMed pipeline network would also include Israel,with whom Saudi Arabia currently has no diplomatic ties.Figure 13:The EastMed pipeline as a repurposed clean hydrogen pipeline linked with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.Source:Braun,Van Wijk,Westphal(2023).Box 1:The EastMed hydro

135、gen pipeline4.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionCountries in the MENA region,particularly those on the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC),have all the pre-requisites for producing cost-effective clean hydrogen:fossil-fuel capacities,an abundance of cheap natural gas resources for blue hydrogen and excelle

136、nt conditions for the low-cost renewables needed for rene-wable(green)hydrogen.Coupled to their proximity to growth markets across Europe and Asia,MENA countries are therefore well positioned to develop into top global suppliers of hydrogen and its derivatives in the emerging global market.For the M

137、ENA region,suitable near-term applications include the petrochemicals and refi ning industries(which currently depend on grey hydrogen and could shift to cleaner hydrogen vectors),steel and alumi-num smelters,ammonia,and methanol.In the medium to long term,the prospective applications include large-

138、scale seasonal energy storage,long-haul transportation,and maritime shipping.In the medium term,natural gas-based(or blue)hydrogen is a more attractive option for the MENA region.Blue hydrogen can be produced relatively cheaply,and only slightly disrupts the existing business models of International

139、 Oil Companies(IOCs)and National Oil Companies(NOCs).This is a key metric in the energy transition since hydrocarbon producers will play a major role in decarbonizing the upstream oil and gas sector to help reach net-zero targets by mid-century.Solar PV leads project investments at both the planned

140、and committed stages of development,with a 50%share by project value,as shown in Figure 14,followed by clean hydrogen(21%),nuclear(14%),and wind(10%).Fraunhofer CINES|26Figure 14:Low-and zero-carbon energy investments by sector in the MENA region by 2030.Source:Al-Ashmawy and Shatila(2022).Of the mo

141、re than sixty projects announced in the Middle East(mainly in Egypt,Oman,the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia),80%focus on producing renewable hydrogen(Roland Berger Middle East 2023).Simultaneously,the literature recognizes fi ve signifi cant challenges that are currently hindering the develop

142、ment of a hydrogen ecosystem in MENA countries and across the region(ibid.).These are:Lack of national strategies,regulations,and institutional design.Inadequate infrastructure(including solar PV plants,electrolysers,pipelines,and storage units).Low local demand for clean hydrogen(lack of regulation

143、s and incentives).Lack of certifi cation and standards.Insuffi cient human capital development,educational programmes,sector-specifi c training,and capacity for local technology development.These and other challenges make it hard to accurately estimate the local clean hydrogen production and demand

144、in MENA countries.Despite these uncertainties,the SCOPE SD and IMAGINE energy system models,as well as the evaluation criteria used in the Global PtX-Atlas and HYPAT projects,can assess the technical potential and socio-economic aspects of the hydrogen value chain in the selected MENA countries.4.1.

145、Technical-economic assessmentRenewable hydrogen projects are capital-intensive,with relatively high upfront investment costs and then lower operating and fuel expenditures over their lifetime.Rapidly increasing investment in clean hydrogen is strongly dependent on improving access to low-cost fi nan

146、cing,particularly in emerging and developing economies(IEA 2021).Calculating the cost of capital for an investment is commonly expressed as the weighted average cost of capital(WACC).For utility-scale solar PV projects,for example,the WACC can amount to 20%-50%of the levelized cost of electricity,so

147、 lower fi nancing costs are critical for the affor-dability of renewable-based hydrogen(IEA 2021).In addition,there are uncertainties about the development of capital costs over time and until 2050.Since the political and regulatory framework in the respective MENA country is decisive for investment

148、s,the World Banks Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy(RISE)are used here as an indicator of capital costs.This assumes that countries with good investment conditions will have low capital costs.The RISE score is used to evaluate the political and regulatory conditions in countries in the th

149、ree categories of“energy access,”“energy effi ciency,”and“renewable energy”(Banerjee et al.2016).The assessment of the“Renewable Energies”category is based on various indicators and sub-indicators,which are used,for example,to map national targets for renewable energies,legal framework conditions or

150、 the characteristics of fi nancial and regulatory incentives.This paper makes two different assumptions for 2030 and 2050:For 2030,the cost of capital is estimated based on the“Renewable Energy”category from the RISE Score.This score is used to scale up the WACC from 4%to 14%.For 2050,on the other h

151、and,no country-variable assumptions are made,and a WACC range between 4%and 14%is assumed for all countries.Table 5 summarizes these variables for the selec-ted MENA countries.Fraunhofer CINES|274.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionCountryRISE Score2 Capital costs(2030)Mean capital costs(2050)Bandwidt

152、h of capital costs(2050)Morocco716.9%8%4%-14%Algeria459.8%Tunisia796.0%Libya8-12.1%Egypt776.2%Saudi Arabia3910.4%Table 5:RISE Score,capital costs,and mean capital costs for selected MENA countries(2030 and 2050).Source:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.Table 6:Production costs(EUR/MWh)in the MENA co

153、untries in 2030 and 2050.Source:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.7 https:/rise.esmap.org/.8 Libya is not included in the RISE Score,so it was categorized manually using the socio-economic indicator from the Global PtX Atlas.CountryProduction costs(2030)Production costs(2050)MeanLower limitHigher li

154、mitMorocco76.263.349.579.0Algeria104.572.456.690.3Tunisia84.673.257.291.3Libya110.669.454.386.6Egypt79.367.853.084.6Saudi Arabia106.470.955.488.5The production cost analysis for the MENA countries is based on the variables in Table 2(CAPEX,OPEX,and effi ciency percentage of selected technologies)and

155、 considers up to thirty simulated sites for each country(Pfennig et al.2022).Based on these assumptions,Table 6 derives the following hydrogen produc-tion costs,which are visualized in Figure 15.Fraunhofer CINES|284.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionBased on the techno-economic potential for hydrogen

156、 and the primary(domestic)energy demand,the export potential of the selected MENA countries that could be connected to Europe via pipeline is shown in Table 7 and Figure 16.Considering diversifi cation in line with the REPowerEU strategy of possible supplier countries,a minimum export volume to Euro

157、pe of 55 TWh per selected MENA country is assumed here(or 330 TWh H2/yr.divided by the six countries).Primary energy demand TWh/a yr.Hydrogen production potential TWh/a yr.Hydrogen export potential TWh/a yr.Egypt72849084180Libya12737763649Saudi Arabia18132685872Morocco198574376Tunisia96361265Algeria

158、493650157Table 7:Primary energy demand and hydrogen potential(incl.export for the selected MENA countries).Source:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.Fraunhofer CINES|294.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 15:Production costs(2030)in green and mean production costs(2050)in red,including lower and

159、 higher limits,for six MENA countries.Source:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.It is essential to consider primary energy demand,as in many cases the renewable power capacity planned for green hydrogen production is in direct competition with the capacity required to decarbonize local electricity ge

160、neration.This is especially relevant in the MENA region,where oil and gas currently account for almost 95%of electricity generation(IEA 2022b).Renewables account for around 10%of electricity generation in Egypt,but for less than 3%(ibid.)in nine of the regions ten producer economies.The dominance of

161、 fossil fuels makes the emissions intensity of power generation in the MENA regionalmost 25%higher than the global average(ibid.).Fraunhofer CINES|304.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 16:Techno-economic hydrogen export potential via pipeline(TWh)of selected MENA countries(x-axis)and Europes h

162、ydrogen demand for 2030 and 2050(y-axis).Source:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.Figure 17a:Area identifi ed for optimal PtX-production(solar and wind coastal and inland)across the MENA region.Source:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.The area identifi ed here is based on the exclusion criteria ment

163、ioned in Table 1,including nature con-servation,infrastructure,water availability,unsuitable areas,PV LCOE,and wind LCOE.Figure 17a highlights the following:The exceptionally large solar and wind potential along the coast of Libya and Egypt,in particular.Exceptionally large inland solar and wind cap

164、acity in Egypt.Limited solar and wind capacity in Algeria,apart from a specifi c region in the northwest of the country.Exceptional solar capacity along the western coast of Saudi Arabia and solar and wind capacity in the countrys Eastern Province.Complementing the potential export analysis,Figure 1

165、7a shows the optimal area identifi ed for PtX-production in the six selected countries and the MENA region.Fraunhofer CINES|314.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 17b zooms in on the area identifi ed for optimal PtX production in Saudi Arabia.The analysis con-fi rms the optimal location of the

166、NEOM Green Hydrogen Company plant(on the left-hand side of the fi gure),which would use 4 GW of wind,solar and battery storage to produce 1.2 Mt of green ammonia per year from 2.2 GW of electrolysers.The areas in the Kingdoms oil-producing Eastern Province identifi ed as optimal in the PtX-Atlas are

167、 also noticeable.These areas present a massive opportunity for clean hydro-gen production but also for Saudi Aramco to decarbonize some of its operations and electricity usage.Fraunhofer CINES|32Figure 17b:Techno-economic PtX-potential of solar and wind along the coastal waters of Saudi Arabia.Sourc

168、e:Authors based on Global PtX-Atlas.4.Clean hydrogen in the MENA region4.2.Theoretical storage potential in salt cavernsAs explained in section 3.2,salt caverns represent one of the best options to store large quantities of gas-eous hydrogen.Unlike Europe,the MENA region has only a few facilities to

169、 store hydrocarbon products.Therefore,the potential of repurposing existing assets for hydrogen storage is very low here.As so few storage sites have been developed in the past,it is also not easy to assess the potential for new storage and this remains a theoretical evaluation,mainly based on a lit

170、erature review of the geology of the salt deposits.Factors like depth,diapir geometry,salt heterogeneities,accessibility,availability of water and brine disposal options could limit storage development in salt caverns in the MENA region.These factors are not considered in this evaluation.Fraunhofer

171、CINES|334.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 18:Schematic map of salt provinces in Morocco,Tunisia,Algeria,and Libya.Map data:Google-Landsat/Copernicus(2015).Sources:Table 8.Map referenceCountryZoneSurface(km2)Salt geometrySource1MoroccoEssaouira Basin11300DiapirMichard 19762MoroccoDoukkala Bas

172、in6400Bedded saltMichard 19763MoroccoSidi Larbi,Berrechid,El Gara Basins6700Bedded saltMichard 19764MoroccoPrrif11800DiapirMichard 19765MoroccoHaut Atlas Marocain23400DiapirVergs et al.20176MoroccoGuercif Basin6500DiapirMichard 1976,Hassa et al.1999-modifi ed7AlgeriaChellif Basin13500DiapirMerabet 1

173、9718AlgeriaTelagh-Prerif trough26600DiapirVergs et al.20179AlgeriaHodna Basin2800DiapirVergs et al.201710AlgeriaSaharian Atlas16100DiapirVergs et al.201711AlgeriaAtlas-Rocher de sel4000DiapirVergs et al.201712AlgeriaAtlas-Milla-El Outaya25700DiapirVergs et al.201713AlgeriaBecher Basin5000DiapirMerab

174、et 1971-modifi ed14AlgeriaOued Mya Basin73900Bedded salt to diapirSoto 2017-modifi ed15AlgeriaBerkine Basin141000Bedded salt to diapirSoto 2017-modifi ed16TunisiaTunisian Atlas20300DiapirVergs et al.201717TunisiaKairouan Basin8200DiapirTroudi et al.201718TunisiaBerkine Basin70500Bedded salt to diapi

175、rBishop 197519LibyaGhadamis-Sabratah Basins21200Bedded salt to diapirBishop 1975Table 8:Sources for Figure 18.Fraunhofer CINES|344.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionMoroccoMorocco has several salt deposits are present in Morocco,and some salt caverns have already been develo-ped around Mohammedia to

176、store LPG.This proves the feasibility of creating a salt cavern in Morocco and,in theory,this could comprise several TWh of storage.AlgeriaAlgeria has several salt deposits,some covering a vast area of more than 100 000 km2,but only a small proportion would be suitable for creating a salt cavern due

177、 to the quality of the salt or the excessive depth of the salt layer.Salt diapirs are found in the north of the country,with some close to the Mediterranean coast.More than 40 diapirs are known,suggesting considerable storage potential.Further investigation is needed to confi rm the storage potentia

178、l in the Sahara Desert(14 and 15),as the quality of the salt and the thickness of the layer might not be suitable for creating salt caverns.TunisiaTunisia has three salt domains,two diapir structures in the north and one bedded salt formation in the south of the Sahara Desert.The Tunisian Atlas(16)i

179、s tectonised,which can limit the options to create sto-rage.Kairaoaun Basin might contain a few interesting diapirs,but the depth of the salt could be a challen-ge in some.The bedded salt basin to the south is an extension of the Algerian one mentioned above and subject to the same issues.LibyaLibya

180、 has two neighboring salt basins on its western border,i.e.,the Ghadamis and Sabratah basins.Salt quality could be an issue for storage,and further investigations must be conducted to confi rm the storage potential.EgyptSalt is mainly present to the south of the Gulf of Suez.Onshore and offshore dia

181、piric piercement structures are suspected in Southwest Gebel El Zeit(Atta,et al.2002).Preliminary screening has revealed potentially good geological conditions(depth,thickness,and presence of halite),and the salt unit is deemed poten-tially favorable for salt storage cavern development.The area of t

182、he onshore salt deposit is limited,but a large storage capacity could still be developed at fi rst glance.This storage potential is in an area with high renewable production capacities.Additional possibilities could also be investigated offshore,along the Red Sea coast.Fraunhofer CINES|354.Clean hyd

183、rogen in the MENA regionSaudi ArabiaSalt formations in Saudi Arabia are located along the Red Sea coast and the Arabian Gulf coast,i.e.,as part of the Hormuz basin.On the Red Sea,the formation mainly consists of bedded salt(halite)in faulted blocks and several salt domes in different locations.The i

184、nformation available on the salt thickness and insolubility suggests that the creation of underground storage would be possible but very localized and possibly deep(mainly around Midian).On the Arabian Gulf coast,the Arabian platform is a sedimentary basin with a thick continuous sequen-ce of sedime

185、nts from the Late Proterozoic(Silurian/Devonian)to Holocene(Recent)on the north-eastern margin of the Arabian sector of Gondwana.During the Hormuz period(Cambrian age),a thick evaporite up to 2500m was deposited,predominantly composed of halite interbedded by carbonate layers.After the consolidation

186、 of the Arabian shield,a late Proterozoic extensional phase,Najd rifting,created several sub-basins currently located in the Persian Gulf sector.The sedimentary sequences in these sub-basins reach a thickness of more than 8-10km,and as a result,the Hormuz salt deposits are stratigraphically deemed t

187、oo deep to make salt caverns.Structurally,Hormuz salt is known in more than 200 salt domes distributed throughout the south-eastern part of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Zagros fold-thrust belt and forms the diapiric cores of several Arabian Gulf islands and topographic features along the coast of Arabia

188、and the United Arab Emirates.These diapiric core structures result from salt piercement intrusion during the Miocene tec-tonic activity of the Arabian Gulf.These salt diapiric structures are assumed to be the only structures with the potential for salt cavern storage.Figure 19 and Table 9 summarize

189、the potential storage locations in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.Fraunhofer CINES|364.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 19:Potential storage locations in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.Source:Lefond(1969).Table 9:Map references for Figure 19.Map ref.CountryZoneSalt geometrySource1Saudi ArabiaJizanDiapirS.J.L

190、efond 19692Saudi ArabiaYanbu Al BahrDiapirS.J.Lefond 19693Saudi ArabiaAl KhobarDiapirS.J.Lefond 19694Saudi ArabiaJebel BerriDiapirS.J.Lefond 19695Saudi ArabiaJebel DharanDiapirS.J.Lefond 19696Saudi ArabiaMidianBedded salt to DiapirS.J.Lefond 19697EgyptEl ZeitDiapirThere is,to date,no public work est

191、imating the technical possibility of storing hydrogen in salt caverns in the MENA countries.The following paragraphs propose an estimation like the approach taken by Weber(2018)and Caglayan et al.(2020),whereby only the most favorable salt deposits are considered.No detailed GIS-based analysis was c

192、arried out in this initial approach to assess the eligibility of the areas for developing caverns,e.g.,distance to cities and other land uses,nor was the availability of water and the ability to reject brine considered in detail.The general assumption is that 10%of the favorable bedded salt basins a

193、nd diapirs can be converted into salt caverns.The cavern parameters were taken from the Hystories Conceptual Design of Salt Caverns,MID case.These correspond to a cavern located at a depth of 1000m,with a free geometrical volume of 380000 m3.One cavern can store 31 MM Sm3 of hydrogen,or 0.09 TWh.All

194、 the design parameters can be found in Hystories report D7.1-1(Jannel and Torquet 2022).Figure 20 and Table 10 summarize the fi ndings of this section.Fraunhofer CINES|374.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionTable 10:Overview of salt formations potentially suitable for the creation of salt caverns.Coun

195、tryNumber of salt formations potentially suitable for the creation of salt cavernsOveralltheoreticalstorage potentialPreliminary estimation of the tech-nical storage capacityCommentsMorocco6Good1000 TWhAlgeria7Good1000 TWhAnalysis mainly based on the diapir areas,bedded salt not consideredLibya1Limi

196、tedNot estimatedAdditional investigation requiredEgypt1Limited1 TWhVery localized potentialTunisia2Limited to Medium1 to 10 TWhEstimation to be confi rmed by further investigationsSaudi Arabia6Medium to Good10 to 50 TWhOther alternatives could be considered for countries with limited storage potenti

197、al in salt caverns or with potential not in an area of interest.Storage in Lined Rock Caverns could also be an interesting option,including some closer to locations of renewable energy production.Many MENA countries are oil and gas producers,and repurposing depleted oil and gas fi elds is another(ma

198、jor)possibility.Fraunhofer CINES|38Figure 20:Storage potential and numbers of salt formations potentially suitable for creating salt caverns.Sources:Caglayan et al.(2020);Horvath et al.(2018);Jannel and Torquet(2022);Weber(2018).4.Clean hydrogen in the MENA region4.3.Socio-economic assessmentThe ana

199、lysis presented in Section 4.1 on aspects of hydrogen production,such as capital costs in the selec-ted MENA countries,depends on socio-economic factors like political stability.Political stability alone com-prises a range of indicators such as government effectiveness,the rule of law and control of

200、 corruption,and Box 2 describes the factors comprising political stability.Political and institutional aspects are the main factors driving the development and expansion of hydrogen production.In this context,it is essential to understand political stability as a multidimensional construct that cons

201、iders the current political regime in terms of its legitimacy,behavior,compliance with human rights and international law,but also the nature and effectiveness of state institutions.Five composite indicators are used by the World Bank(2022)to account for such a systemic approach:Political Stability:

202、Measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and politically motivated violence,including terrorism.Government Effectiveness:Refl ects perceptions of the quality of public services,the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressure,the qual

203、ity of policy formulation and implementation,and the credibility of the governments commitment to such policies.Voice and Accountability:Refl ects perceptions of the extent to which a countrys citizens can participate in selecting their government,as well as freedom of expression,association,and fre

204、e media.Regulatory Quality:Refl ects perceptions of the ability of the government to formulateand implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development.Rule of Law:Refl ects perceptions of the extent to which agents have confi dence in and abide by the rules of

205、society,and in particular,the quality of contract enforcement,property rights,the police,and the courts,as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.Control of Corruption:Refl ects perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain,including petty and grand forms of cor

206、ruption and“capture”of the state by elites and personal interests.Fraunhofer CINES|39Fraunhofer CINES|394.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionBox 2:Political stabilityFigure 21 summarizes these indicators under the header of political stability and rates political stability from a weak performance of-2

207、.5(a country with the lowest value)to a strong performance of 2.5(a country with the highest value).Figure 21 shows that Libya has the overall weakest score and that countries such as Saudi Arabia and Tuni-sia score better in areas like control of corruption,the rule of law,and accountability.Nevert

208、heless,political stability is just one of many factors considered here when discussing the socio-economic potential of the selected MENA countries.Fraunhofer CINES|40Figure 21:Political stability,or a set of relative indicators(weak performance:-2.5=country with the lowest value);strong performance:

209、2.5=country with the highest value).Source:Fraunhofer HYPAT based on World Bank(2022).4.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 22 shows the results of the high-level country analysis,which was based on the individual values of forty indicators and seventy associated indices used in the six thematic

210、 areas as explained in Section 2.2.While techno-economic research indicates that MENA countries like Egypt and Libya could supply large quantities of hydrogen to Europe,their socio-economic potential is much lower,especially when compared to that of most European countries.One consequence of a lower

211、 socio-economic score is that,for example,investment risks in the MENA region are higher.This increases the cost of fi nancing and reduces the likelihood of realizing large-scale hydrogen projects(Pfennig et al.2022).Fraunhofer CINES|414.Clean hydrogen in the MENA regionFigure 22:Socio-economic pote

212、ntial for PtX in the Europe-MENA region.Source:Authors based on Global PtX Atlas.5.ConclusionThis paper provides a technical and socio-economic assessment of the EUs strategic REPowerEU target of 20 Mt hydrogen production and import target by 2030.Due to their geographical proximity,low-cost product

213、ion potential,and existing gas infrastructure,six MENA(Middle East and North Africa)countries are regarded as crucial players for realizing the REPowerEU 10 Mt import target(i.e.,6 Mt of hydrogen by pipeline and 4 Mt of ammonia):Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Libya,Egypt,and Saudi Arabia.The technical asse

214、ssment conducted in this paper by linking the Fraunhofer energy system model SCOPE SD with the new gas market model IMAGINE does not see a domestic(European)hydrogen production capacity of 10 Mt p/yr.materialize until sometime between 2035 and 2040.Regarding sectoral demand,the analysis shows that 3

215、76 TWh(11.4 Mt)constitutes a very ambitious,maximum hydrogen demand that can be covered by domestic European production by 2030.In terms of infrastructure,this paper argues that integrating larger quantities of hydrogen by repurposing existing natural gas-based infrastructure in Europe is possible a

216、nd could be a building block in the conti-nents transition towards a climate-neutral energy system.Imports by pipeline from the selected MENA countries could contribute to diversifying Europes transport and supply options in the medium term.These pipeline imports are essential in the case of high hy

217、drogen demand in the long term,i.e.,up to 2050 and beyond.From 2050 onwards,the paper shows the need for new pipeline capacity from several MENA countries to Europe,especially Morocco,Algeria,Egypt,and Saudi Arabia.Suffi cient hydrogen storage capacity in salt caverns in Europe is also available in

218、the short to medium-term.From 2045 onwards,howe-ver,there will be an increasing need for new hydrogen storage capacity.Although a massive endeavor,the 216 TWh of new and repurposed hydrogen storage potential in salt caverns by 2050 does not consider other storage options and strategic possibilities

219、like the reserve required to achieve the REPowerEU target by 2030.The paper also points out that the technical analysis conducted here focuses on cost optimization,and that the war in Ukraine,and the EUs response in the form of REPowerEU,have made it very clear that strategic considerations are beco

220、ming increasingly important for Europes ambitions regarding hydrogen.The paper touches upon possibly repurposing the proposed EastMed pipeline for clean hydrogen as an example of geopolitical concerns in a post-Ukraine war Europe.The selected MENA countries have a huge technical potential to export

221、clean hydrogen.Under the right conditions,including production capacities,policies,infrastructure,fi nancing,certifi cation and human capital development,this potential could meet Europes demand for hydrogen.However,there are major hurdles to be overcome when turning this technical potential into a

222、realizable one.The initial remarks on the theoretical storage potential of hydrogen in salt caverns require more extensive and in-depth analysis,including of depleted oil and gas fi elds.Fraunhofer CINES|42Capital costs depend on various socio-economic indicators like the rule of law,level of corrup

223、tion,and regulatory quality.The analysis based on the Global PtX-Atlas,which considers forty indicators and seventy associated indices across six thematic areas,shows that the socio-economic potential in the selected MENA countries is in sharp contrast to that of most countries in Europe.The low ove

224、rall socio-economic score of MENA countries infl uences essential variables like the cost of capital and investment risk.At the same time,this paper also indicates some of the current limitations of the Global PtX Atlas and that some of its features need to be refi ned and adjusted.In any case,the a

225、nalysis presented here provides a starting point for further research on the technical and socio-economic aspects of the nascent Europe-MENA hydrogen economy.Any strategic focus on scaling up hydrogen production in MENA countries for export purposes must consider these aspects,including strict susta

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