硅谷銀行（SVB）：2020年美國葡萄酒行業狀況報告（英文版）（71頁）.pdf

1、State of the US Wine Industry 2020 Written by Rob McMillan, EVP and Founder Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Executive summary 6 Seven headwinds 8 Seven tailwinds 9 3. 2019 predictions in review 10 What we got right 11 What we got wrong 12 4. 2020 US wine business pred

2、ictions and observations 13 Supply 14 Demand 15 Price 15 5. Grape and wine supply 16 The 2001 planting bubble 17 The 2020 grape market have we been here before? 20 The bulk wine market 22 Implications for 2020 24 6. Wine sales 26 Winery shipments 28 Generics and wines below $9 still declining 30 Mid

3、-price premium growth, but declining growth 32 Luxury wine threats and opportunities 33 Direct to consumer positive growth but slowing 35 Restaurant sales 35 Formats, varietals and packaging 36 Substitutes spirits, cannabis and imports 39 Spirits 40 Cannabis 41 Imports 44 Other substitutes 46 7. Dem

4、ographics and marketing 48 Cohort consumption 50 The millennial “Indulgence Gap” 52 The missing millennial 52 Marketing wine to millennials 54 Sales and marketing for family wineries 57 Cracks in the tasting room model 58 Todays wine tourist 59 Direct to consumer: Where we need to go next 60 8. Land

5、 and M lower in alcohol, carbs and calories; transparent with ingredients; refreshing and healthier than other alcohol beverage alternatives. In some ways, its a bit like the introduction of light beer in 1973, which was targeted to appeal to consumers concerned about their weight.53 Are hard seltze

6、rs a wine substitute, or could they be a gateway in the same way wine coolers were a gateway for the boomers move into wine? If you believe the “share of gullet” theory, then they are a substitute. The early research that has been done suggests that at least 40 percent of the growth in hard seltzers

7、 is coming at the expense of wine. That said, its more of a substitute for beer today and is being regulated as beer thats the first good news the major beer suppliers have had in some time. Will spiked seltzers inevitably bring more young consumers to wine? Once large beverage companies adopt the f

8、ormula and make a wine cooler called a “hard seltzer wine cooler,” that could happen. In the interim, there are a lot of lessons to take away from the consumer attributes that are driving growth, and those can be applied to wine. $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Nielsen Be

9、verage Group, November 2019 Figure 35: Annual growth in hard seltzers Billions Number of brands Dollar salesNumber of brands 4 years ago 3 years ago 2 years ago 1 year ago Last 52 weeks 47STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 WINE SALES | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 Demographics

10、 and marketing The US wine business is hitting a ceiling in its ability to grow because of a few fundamental challenges the industry hasnt fully embraced or addressed. Those are hard words to write, but they are supported by our own extensive work in the industry and by syndicated volume data, which

11、 have been down-trending for several years and are now negative. We cant correct what we dont identify or acknowledge. 7 48STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKETING | 8 | 9 | 10 After more than 25 years of robust growth, we are now weighte

12、d down by dated strategies of what has “always worked before,” locking us into ruts in our day-to-day business tactics. We are doing a poor job in recognizing and reacting to changing consumer values and in diagnosing or accepting the factors creating the consumer change, and as a result, we arent d

13、eveloping effective strategies to discover new avenues for growth. The change we see in sales is due to shifts across all of the four major cohorts as each moves through periods of wealth accumulation, as their palates and preferences evolve, as their population size changes over time and as their v

14、iew of alcohol in the context of health and age impacts their personal consumption patterns. We are doing a poor job in recognizing and reacting to changing consumer values and in diagnosing or accepting the factors creating the consumer change, and as a result, we arent developing effective strateg

15、ies to discover new avenues for growth. Boomers (age 5573) Matures (age 74+) Gen Xers (age 3954) Millennials (age 2338) Gen Zers (age 2122) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Figure 36: US population by age Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2018 MaleFemale 182226303438424650545862667074788286909498 Millions

16、 49STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKETING | 8 | 9 | 10 Each cohort is playing a role in the consumption shift in wine today: We are living with the sunset of the mature cohort, who are still meaningful consumers of wine, but their numbe

17、rs are in decline due to mortality. Baby boomers, with 70 percent of the disposable income and more than 50 percent of wealth in the US, are still the dominant consumer of wine today. They are exhibiting changing spending patterns due to age, health and retirement concerns.54 The median boomer will

18、reach the normal retirement age of 66 in 2021. The good news is that they will likely continue to work past normal retirement and continue to buy wine. Gen Xers, who have now lived through the two longest economic expansions in US history, are in their prime spending years and are holding up their e

19、nd of wine buying as the largest current growth cohort, but their smaller numbers limit their ability to influence change. The millennial cohort, which should be a large growth opportunity for the US wine industry, is not presently engaging in the wine category as once imagined. Cohort consumption I

20、n my view, the issue of greatest concern for the wine business today is the lack of participation in the premium wine category by the large millennial generation. In just 10 more years, the last boomer will pass age 66 and be eligible for full Social Security benefits.55 What will the average consum

21、er look like with the boomer in full retirement? 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2226273031343537384142454649505354575861626566697072 Figure 37: Premium wine buying by age group Source: Customer Vineyard, 2018 MaleFemale Millennials Gen Xers Boomers Percent of sales In my view, the issue of greatest conc

22、ern for the wine business today is the lack of participation in the premium wine category by the large millennial generation. 50STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKETING | 8 | 9 | 10 While millennials hold slightly higher consumption share

23、s in the $8 to $14 bottle price points today and are interested in wine by all accounts, they havent made any noticeable movement to be premium wine consumers for almost five years, holding firm and consuming around 17 percent of the premium market based on Silicon Valley Bank research (see figure 3

24、8), 20 percent based on Nielsen data and only 11 percent based on research done on hundreds of thousands of premium club member records by Customer Vineyard (see figure 37). While the wine industry makes slow inroads to attracting the young consumer, the luxury market has gone all-in, adapting produ

25、ct offerings, digital communication and engagement strategies and evolving distribution channels. According to Bains Annual Luxury Goods report,56 Generations Y and Z accounted for 47 percent of luxury consumers in 2018 and for 33 percent of all luxury purchases. However, they contributed virtually

26、all of the luxury markets growth. The comparison with the wine business is stark. Between 11 and 20 percent of millennials consume wine. However, about double that number, 33 percent, consume luxury goods, and they arent providing any growth to the wine category. Perhaps it was wishful thinking, but

27、 industry analysts have mistakenly overestimated the impact of the millennial on the US wine business for some time.57 Believing that millennials were consuming wine already might have created a false sense that nothing needed to be done. But the millennials real progress in capturing premium wine s

28、hare from boomers has been a delayed promise because of several factors, including their early preference for craft beer and spirits, questions surrounding the health of alcohol consumption and their delay in establishing careers, families and wealth compared with prior generations. Today, the mille

29、nnials retail silence, particularly for discretionary spending in premium wine, is deafening. 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: SVB State of the Wine Industry Survey 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 Figure 38: Wine consumption by cohort Gen Zers (age 2122)Millennials (age 2338)Gen Xers (a

30、ge 3954)Boomers (age 5573)Matures (age 74+) 2% 17% 35% 40% 6% 51STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKETING | 8 | 9 | 10 None of that means we have to live with these results. There is time to adapt. With the median age of the millennial con

31、sumer only 32, the industry still has time to find its footing. But for today, the millennials retail silence, particularly for discretionary spending in premium wine, is deafening. Millennials are delaying most of the life events that would otherwise create positive economic impact. They are taking

32、 longer to graduate from college, they delay marriage or never expect to marry,58 they postpone having children59 and they have taken longer to start their careers. The homeownership rate of millennials is about 8 percent lower than the homeownership rate of Gen Xers and baby boomers at the same age

33、.60 A telling statistic is that more adults aged 30 or younger live with their parents than at any time since the Great Depression.61 Some of the patterns were noticing, such as millennials delaying marriage, have more to do with societal changes, but the 2008 financial crisis62 is at least as much

34、of a factor in stunting the generations spending.63 The millennial “Indulgence Gap” With the economy in disarray in 2007, the US Federal Reserve rapidly started to lower interest rates, and when rates got close to zero and the economy still needed more stimulus, the Fed began a quantitative easing p

35、rogram,64 the purpose of which was to calm the banking system, improve the employment situation and stabilize prices. In the process, they reflated both the stock market and home prices. Roughly six years after their prior peak, the S divorce earlyNot required but secretly desired ChildrenImportant;

36、 two or moreConflicted; at least one child if the timing works Choice in foodDont eat if its bad for youOnly eat if its good for you FaithPick one flavorOptional but accepting; prefer spirituality to religion GovernmentNot to be trustedNot to be trusted BusinessCapitalism is the path to individual w

37、ealth Business success comes with social responsibility Social justiceResponsibility of government, church and law My responsibility DiversityCivil rights movement drove change Social and ethnic diversity drives change FinancesDebt is goodSavings are good Landfills and wasteDisposable cultureReuse a

38、nd repurpose culture SpendingConspicuouslyOn important things PleasureWork before playPlay at work FunWorkYes, please RetirementNot if I dont have toIll never be able to, but the sooner the better ExperiencesBucket listsUnique, adventurous and socially connected Figure 41: Sample nutrition label We

39、lack the transparency our consumers are demanding when we refuse to put calories on the label. 55STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKETING | 8 | 9 | 10 Eating healthy is a critical value of young consumers, and there is ample evidence that

40、 aging boomers are taking their cues from young people, adopting their own health-conscious diets and consumption patterns, too. Look at snack foods today, and you will see they often come in 100-calorie packages. Why is that? Because young consumers are conscious about their health, and weight is a

41、 factor in living a healthy life. What is the largest-selling brand of spirits today? Titos Vodka. What is the lowest-calorie mixed drink at a bar? Vodka and soda. How many calories are in a vodka soda? Sixty. How many calories are in a glass of wine? You dont really know, do you? Even most of us in

42、 the industry dont know how many calories are in a 5-ounce glass of wine. We lack the transparency our consumers are demanding when we refuse to put calories on the label, and that is a huge marketing miss. If we really want to reach the millennial, we need to look at how other beverages are markete

43、d successfully, including soda, energy drinks, hard seltzers and spirits. Then we need to repurpose those ideas for our own benefit. Look at the back of the can of one of the top brands of hard seltzer (see figure 41). Notice the low number of calories per serving. The content description has few in

44、gredients and nothing the consumer cant pronounce. Pay attention to the use of the term “natural” and how industrial alcohol is described as “Alcohol from Cold-Brewed Sugar.” All seltzers contain lower alcohol than wine, which has an appeal to both younger and older consumers. All of those are messa

45、ges regarding health for the young consumer, and they are working. Look at almost any packaged good today, and you will see small circles on the label that reflect health attributes: non-GMO, natural, no added sugars, low-sodium, vegan, low-fat, pesticide-free, no additives, glyphosate-free, no arti

46、ficial colors, no artificial flavors, no synthetic ingredients and many more (see figure 42). Many manufacturers put third-party brands on labels, such as certified organic, certified naturally grown and certified sustainable. While the wine industry cant make health claims and include an icon that

47、says “healthy” due to TTB label regulations,67 we can inform the public of the health attributes in our products,68 and we should be doing that if we want to market to a health-conscious population. Figure 42: Health attribution labelsWhat ingredients are in a bottle of wine? Grapes, sometimes with

48、added native yeast and minuscule amounts of added sulfites. Wine couldnt be any more natural, especially compared to other alcoholic beverages. But we arent close to being transparent with whats inside our bottles. Not letting the consumer know just how few additives are in wine and how naturally it

49、s made is a lost differentiator and a mistake. 100% Organic Vegan Vegetarian Organic premium quality Organic Sugar Free 100% Natural Gluten Free GMO Free Farm Fresh 56STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY REPORT 2020 CONTENTS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKETING | 8 | 9 | 10 Sales and marketing for family wineries Across all generations, consumers preferences and their price sensitivity to wine are evolving, and that should be changing the way wine is both marketed and sold. Wineries that have