1、Excerpt from Gartner Business Quarterly 3Q23What Generative AI Means for Your Talent Strategyby Helen Poitevin and Pieter den HamerExcerpt from Gartner Business Quarterly 3Q23The accelerated investment in generative AI has unsurprisingly led to concerns about how this technology will affect jobs,inc

2、luding those once thought impervious to automation.Some roles will cease to exist,while many others will change radically,encompassing new tasks and requiring new skills.Faced with apotentially historic disruption,executive leaders should shape their talent strategies using anew framework for unders

3、tanding generative AIs impact on the workforce.AI applications have been affecting workers for years,but this time feels different.During the late 2010s,few executive leaders would claim publicly that layoffs were in any way due to investments in AI or automation.They would usually say they identifi

4、ed impacted staff,retrained them and shifted them to other roles.Today,however,as use of generative AI tools such as ChatGPT spreads rapidly,leaders are more willing to explicitly call out AI as one of the reasons positions will disappear whether the technology is truly the culprit or not.1,22Excerp

5、t from Gartner Business Quarterly 3Q23Assess Impact Within YourBusiness Context Generative AI will affect each organization differently.Executive leaders must consider their enterprises unique situation as they anticipate the effects of this technology(and AI more broadly)on the workforce.Most avail

6、able models for measuring automation risk from AI analyze only existing roles and estimate the potential for AI to replace current employees.While these models have merit,they omit two important factors in any executive leaders talent decisions:Demand drivers show whether your organization should sc

7、ale up products and services,scale them down or hold them steady.Talent impact:Future demand for specific capabilities within your organization,industry or broader market will determine where you invest in talent and technology.Demand also affects your ability to meet your talent needs:Sought-after

8、workers are harder to attract,and low-demand jobs become less desirable and more challenging to fill.Technology drivers relate to how your organization implements and uses technology.They affect how you organize work within and across teams.Talent impact:Organizations adopting generative AI will des

9、ign roles and workflows differently depending on what they are using it for.Executive leaders must also account for the combinations of skills available within the organization and the wider labor market.Generative AI will directly alter tasks such as content creation,question answering and discover

10、y,translation,document summarization and software coding.But how it will transform individual jobs is more challenging to predict.For example,knowing generative AI will disrupt copywriting and customer support doesnt tell you what it means for the people providing those services in your organization

11、.Your business context will determine whether you use the technology to make these employees more productive,phase out jobs that can be done by machines or reconfigure these roles toprovide new types of services.The following steps will help executive leaders identify the impact of AI on their organ

12、izations workforce and adapt their business,talent and technology strategies accordingly.3Excerpt from Gartner Business Quarterly 3Q23 Decreasing/Low The service or product targets a niche market or is being phased out.Ongoing support is required,but there are no plans for investing further to try s

13、caling up to a bigger offering.This includes instances where a company continues to serve existing customers for a product or service but no longer offers itto new ones.Examples:Legacy products no longer sold but with multidecade contracts that need to be honored;nicheproducts such as parametric ins

14、uranceStep 2:Envision AI Technology ApplicationsAfter forecasting demand,formulate your future vision for how you will apply generative AI and AI more broadly.This helps identify the degree of impact on a given team or role.Will people in certain jobs be replaced?Will they need new skills?How critic

15、al will it be for a workers success and competitive positioning that they use generative AIeffectively?Consider what your planned applications of AI mean forexisting professions and industries.You could:Stay within their boundaries Many emerging use cases for generative AI are far from transformativ

16、e.For example,a recruiter could use embedded generative AI functionality in a talent sourcing tool to automatically apply search criteria based on natural language input,without having to manually apply filters.This change simply makes an existing work pattern easier and faster.Go beyond their bound

17、aries Generative AI,alongside other AI techniques,can change how people access products and services.For example,AI can help create webpages,videos,apps or other content quickly,without requiring any technical knowledge.This capability allows for a fully personalized customer experience.Create new b

18、oundaries Autonomous business,in which AI manages or carries out the majority of operations,has already started to emerge.Machine customers,augmented managers and autonomous operations are central features of these new business models.We anticipate the labor ratio to substantially change,with enterp

19、rises needing fewer people to generate the same amount of revenue.Step 1:Forecast DemandFirst,examine how you expect demand for a given product or service to change,based on forecast business conditions and company strategy.Apply this exercise at the enterprise,business unit,department or team level

20、,and for both internal-and external-facing services.This helps clarify howmuch a given team will need to deliver in the future.Demand for a product or service could be:Increasing/High An offerings success is driving a marked rise in demand,with high growth targets.This demand may also be for a parti

21、cular capability such as AI,software or other digital technologies that needs to scale to an increasing number of domains.Examples:Medical diagnostics,software engineering,AI development,prompt engineers Stable/Core Volume and future evolution are predictable,possibly with some variability linked to

22、 seasonality or similar factors.There are no plans for either high growth or phasing out the service.Examples:Payroll services,customer service supporting stable markets,internal IT services,insurance claims processing4Excerpt from Gartner Business Quarterly 3Q23Consider a Matrix of AI FuturesCombin

23、ing these demand and technology factors creates a range of situations(seeFigure 1).Within each organization,and even within each team,multiple cases are likely to apply.For each situation,specific investments in talent development and workforce planning will help executives lead their teams through

24、an AI-driven wave of transformation.We expect generative AI to have two broad effects on the workforce,each with significant implications for executiveleaders.Source:Gartnera Demand can be for internal or external services,at the organization,business unit or department level.It drives activity volu

25、mes and portfolio prioritization.How AI Is Applied in Industries and ProfessionsWithin the Boundaries:Shifting roles through automation and augmentation of existing work patterns and tasks.Pushing Boundaries:Newly configured roles through transformation and augmentation;new work patterns.Breaking Bo

26、undaries:Game-changing roles.Autonomous business with significantly lower labor-to-revenue ratio.Business Context and Demand VolumesIncreasing/High:Scale up and grow tomeetdemand.Scale Up:Productivity goes up with AI and humans accomplishing more work with less effort.Still hiring to meet targets.Ne

27、w Impact Level:High performance expectations in many newly configured roles,transformed through AI and human partnership.Symbiosis:Machine economy with few employees compared to impact,reach and revenue.Top design teams required.Stable/Core:Scale through efficiency and productivity gains.Shift and N

28、ot Replace:Work shifts.Many are not replaced,and most complex work remains.Roles must be reconfigured,often toward assisted multiskilled generalist roles.Run Smarter:Increased performance expectations per worker in terms of reach or impact.Only those who can work effectively with AI remain competiti

29、ve.Synergy:New pockets may emerge for machine customers and autonomous operations.Innovative redesigned teams required.Decreasing/Low:Scale down or maintain low niche-style activity.Last Ones Standing:Hard to attract talent and likely losing talent.Automation is an opportunity to maintain service de

30、spite talent shortage.Niche Innovations:Hard to attract and find talent in hyperspecialized markets.May open up some new markets that can now be served profitably.Experiments:Rare,but micro niche investments.Few employees.Low AI ImpactHigh AI Impact Figure 1:Talent Impact Matrix for Generative AI an

31、d AI More Broadly5Excerpt from Gartner Business Quarterly 3Q23Generative AI Within the Current BoundariesUsing generative AI in this way will result in the shifting of roles over time.Fewer people will be needed to complete the same amount of work.Mass layoffs driven solely by generative AI adoption

32、 are unlikely,especially considering that labor markets remain historically tight.However,people who leave jobs affected by the technology are less likely to be replaced.Employees hired into these roles will be expected to accomplish higher work volumes more quickly.It will also become increasingly

33、challenging to find talent willing to take on jobs that automation will likely displace.Executive leaders implementing generative AI in this context should anticipate headcount reductions over time.They will need to redesign jobs displaced or disrupted by AI into smaller numbers of multiskilled gene

34、ralist roles that encompass a wider range of capabilities and offer a more compelling employee valueproposition.Generative AI Beyond the Current BoundariesSecond,using generative AI to push the boundaries of professions and industries,or even break them,will set off a race for performance.Expectatio

35、ns will be higher in newly configured roles,and organizations wont be able to compete without using AI.The question will be not which tasks go to AI and which to humans,but how people can use AI creatively to reach new heights.New,highly specialized jobs will emerge where generative AI and related t

36、echnologies are used creatively and strategically to transform what teams do and what their clients expect.This requires a rich blend of business and technological acumen that few possess.For example,organizations will need executive-level business architects who wield both types of expertise in an

37、entrepreneurial way.When its too hard to find the right fit for these roles,build on experience with cross-disciplinary fusion teams that design and deliver digital products and services.Whether this specialized role is filled by a person with this rare mix of talents or by a fusion team,it will be

38、critical for enterprises that make the leap to create new boundaries in a machine economy.1 BT to Cut 55,000 Jobs With Up to a Fifth Replaced by AI,BBC News.2 IBM CEO Among the First Major Executives to Say Theyll Replace Jobs With AI,Axios.6 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserve

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