瑞信銀行（Credit Suisse）：全球工業自動化產業入門（英文版）（67頁）.pdf

1、Global Industrial Automation Industry Primer 21 May 2019 EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with c

2、ompanies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision European Capital Goods Te

3、am Andre Kukhnin, CFA +44 20 7888 0350 andre.kukhnincredit- Max Yates +44 20 7883 8501 max.yatescredit- Leo Carrington, ACA +44 20 7883 4532 leo.carringtoncredit- Iris Zheng, CFA +44 20 7883 5298 iris.zhengcredit- Artem Tokarenko +44 20 7888 2676 artem.tokarenkocredit- Specialist Sales: Andrew Bell

4、+44 20 7888 0459 andrew.bellcredit- US Electricals 2017 feedbacks 15 May 2017; 2016 feedbacks 29 Apr 2016 IIoT Webinar 5 Dec 2018; SPS IPC Drives 30 Nov 2018; Automatica 21 June 2018; IMTS Show-Automation 14 September 2016; Automatica Fair 27 June 2016; Automation Fair 1 December 2015 Source: Credit

5、 Suisse research, Company data Whats inside Slide 3 The primer contains the following: Global Industrial Automation Market Forecast slide 5 Global Industrial Automation Market Overview slides 6-8 Discrete vs. Process Automation Markets slides 9-10 Industrial Automation A structural Growth Story ? sl

6、ides 11-12 Peers: Competitive landscape and Financial benchmarking slides 13-14 Control Systems: Enterprise-level Controls closing the machine-to-machine loop is the ultimate goal. Discrete Automation cycle debate aside, we see re-shoring and generally rising adoption as positives but have concerns

7、over 1) automotive shift to EVs where drivetrain BOM is of ICEs and 2) increasing efforts in PLC virtualisation (unlikely for auto, in our view, but possible for new applications). Process Automation as most mature segment, we expect growth closer to General IP (c3-4% pa). Robotics auto capex cycle

8、headwind near term but overall rising adoption remains a structural driver; market shift towards cobots to watch. Potential strategic moves 1) acquisitions of independent industrial software players; 2) acquisitions of system integrators by lateral entrants to gain customer proximity; 3) IIoT platfo

9、rms consolidation; 4) cloud and analytics vendors to compete with IIoT platforms; 5) traditional robot makers acquiring into cobots. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research 50 100 150 200 250 300 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Global IP IndexProcess A

10、utomation Discrete AutomationIndustrial Automation Software Robotics -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average Software EBIT marginAverage PA EBIT margin Average DA EBIT marginAverage Robotics EBIT margin Cloud (AWS, Azu

11、re, Watson, etc.) Enterprise Level Systems Plant Level Controls Plant Instrumentation Industrial Automation “Hardware x Software” Crossover Slide 6 Source: Credit Suisse research Discrete Hybrid Process ABB: Ability GE: Predix Rockwell Automation: PTC partnership (ThingWorx) Siemens: MindSphere Schn

12、eider: Ecostruxure Industrial IoT platforms Connectivity Industrial Automation Architecture Slide 7 Source: Credit Suisse research Major Players ERP: SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, Sage, Intuit, CDC Software Plant Design and Simulation: Aveva, Aspen, HON, Schneider CAD (Computer Aided Design) PLM: Siemens,

13、 Dassault, PTC, SAP, Oracle, Autodesk CAD: Siemens, Dassault, PTC, Autodesk, Bentley v MES: Schneider, CDC Software, Aspen, Rockwell, HON, Dassault v vSCADA: Siemens, Schneider, ABB v v v v Computerized Numerical Control (CNC) 3D Printing Software CNC: Fanuc, Siemens, Mitsubishi 3D Printing Software

14、: MTLS vv Human Machine Interface (HMI) v vv DrivesSensors RobotsMachine Vision Motors Relays and switches Metrology: Hexagon, Faro, Renishaw, Zeiss Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) 3D Printer: XONE, SSYS, DDD Motors: ABB, EMR, RBC, Siemens, WEG, Mitsubishi, Teco Robots: ABB, Fanuc, KUKA, Yaskawa,

15、 KHI Drives: ABB, FTV, ETN, Mitsubishi, EMR, Siemens, ROK Machine Vision: Cognex, Keyence Machine Tools: DMG Mori, Amada, Okuma Plant Level Controls ProcessDiscrete DCS: ABB, HON, yokogawa, EMR, Schneider PLC: ETN, ROK, Siemens, Omron, Mitsubishi, Schneider Distributed Control System (DCS) Programma

16、ble Logic Controller (PLC) Supervisory Control and Data AnalysisSCADA - HMI MES/ CPM/ MOM Industrial IoT platform IIoT platform: Microsoft Azure, IBM Waston, Google, Amazon, PTC ThingWrox, Intel, GE Predix, SAP, Siemens MindSphere, Schneider EcoStruxure, ABB Ability Metrology (3D Inspection Green =

17、Plant Level Controls; Blue = Instrumentation * Indicative splits from CS estimates * Indicative splits from CS estimates * Indicative splits from CS estimates Automotive 15% General Industrials 15% Consumer goods 11% Chemicals *LV, MV and Power Quality Digital Platform Electrification* Sensing Self-

18、organization of integrated production lines considering the entire value chain; Flexible decisions on production process on the basis of the current situation. We believe the key benefit of such a system is increased flexibility and efficiency of the production process: It allows significantly short

19、er time-to-market for new products given the integrated design and production system (as much as 50% time saving). It creates significant savings of energy and production resources due to better planning and organization. It allows for individualised mass production with the help of additive manufac

20、turing technology (3D printing) which caters for diversified individual demand. Source: Credit Suisse research, Company data, Siemens 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Number of IoT devices conntectedyoy growth - RHS Siemens estimates 5

21、0bn IoT devices to be connected by 2020 Industry 4.0 Industrial Internet of Things (ii) Slide 22 Source: IoT Analytics 5 types of Industrial IoT platforms Five types of IIoT platforms are (from bottom to the top): Connectivity platforms are a form of Platform-as-a-Service that offer coverage capabil

22、ities and solutions for connecting the IoT devices, managing and orchestrating connectivity, and provisioning communication services for connected IoT devices. Device management platforms are a form of Platform-as-a- Service (or device cloud) that handle provisioning tasks to ensure connected device

23、s are deployed, configured, and kept up-to-date with regular firmware/software updates. Cloud platforms (IaaS backends) are a form of Infrastructure- as-a-Service that offer a scalable enterprise-grade backend for data management of IoT applications and services. Application Enablement Platforms (AE

24、Ps) are a form of Platform-as-a-Service that also offer Software-as-a-Service solutions enabling developers to rapidly create, test, and deploy an IoT application or service. Advanced analytics platforms are a form of Platform-as-a- Service that also offer Software-as-a-Service solutions for sophist

25、icated analytics tools including machine-learning techniques and streaming analytics capabilities to extract actionable insights from IoT data. IIoT platforms deployment by customer type: Large factories: often already have connectivity deployed Small/Medium factories: often look for end-to-end solu

26、tions Industry 4.0 Industrial Internet of Things (iii) Slide 23 Source: IoT Analytics Large factories: IIoT platform scope Different-sized factories have different needs: Large factories often already have connectivity and plant network deployed, and manufacturers derive value by integrating and ana

27、lysing existing data sources. Small/Medium factories: OEMs need end-to-end solutions in order to create connected products and services. SEMs can leverage cloud- based solutions to realise IIoT use cases without investing in IT infrastructure. Plant networks already existed Small/Medium factories: I

28、IoT platform scope End-to-end solution Industry 4.0 Industrial Internet of Things (iv) Slide 24 Source: IoT Analytics Industrial 4.0 use case size (12 key use cases) and growth rates Industrial IoT platforms play a key role in realising many of the I4.0 use cases: Advanced Digital Product engineerin

29、g the biggest I4.0 use case: refers to the use of I4.0 technologies to reduce the time and cost required to bring new products to market. Data-driven Asset/Plant Performance Optimization: refers to use cases implementing I4.0 technologies to increase asset utilization. Predictive Maintenance: seeks

30、to prevent the estimated $657bn in downtime losses that occur each year, and is regarded as one of the most important use cases of I4.0 technology. Data-driven quality control: refers to the use of I4.0 technologies to produce a greater number of higher-quality products. Remote service: refers to th

31、e use of I4.0 technologies to provide remote troubleshooting and optimization services to customers and maintenance personnel. Everything-as-a-service: refers to selling products as services instead of or in combination with physical products. 45%40%50% 0 20%15%25%35%30% 2023 Market Size ($B) CAGR (

32、2018-2023) Data-driven Inventory Optimization Advanced Digital Product Engineering Remote Asset Testing/Inspection/Certification Additive Production Human Robot Collaboration Predictive Maintenance Remote Service Everything-as-a-Service Business Models Data-driven Quality Control Virtual Training Da

33、ta-driven Asset/Plant Performance Optimization Augmented Operations $1-5B $25-50B $5-10B $10-25B Industry 4.0 Industrial Internet of Things (v) Slide 25 Source: IoT Analytics Global IoT Platforms market size Manufacturing is the largest market segment for IoT platforms (37% of overall in 2018). The

34、manufacturing segment is growing at 42% p.a. faster than overall market growth of 37%. The total global IoT platforms market is forecast to reach $22bn in 2023, close to 5x the size in 2018 of $4.5bn. 0 20,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 10,000 Year Global IoT Platforms Market Size in $B 2021202020232022201

35、720182019 13,036 2,424 1,670 1,146 3,905 2,819 1,993 9,912 7,386 5,432 4,489 16,630 22,284 6,329 8,861 12,228 6,718 4,842 3,429 3,139 39% 9,248 Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing CAGR 17-23 37% 42% Industry 4.0 Industrial Internet of Things (vi) Slide 26 Source: Credit Suisse research, Company data Use

36、r cases of Industrial IoT platforms Industrial IoT platform vendors IIoT platform vendors: GE, Siemens and Schneider appear more advanced in IIoT than ABB. Siemens MindSphere runs an open architecture and does not need to be tied to just Siemens physical devices. However, customers are encouraged to

37、 use Siemens connected devices to better fit into the ecosystem. Connected IIoT devices: We find elevator OEMs are the front-runners in deploying connecting elevators and IIoT platforms. The global top 4 elevator OEMs have all launched their IIoT platform offerings based on IaaS vendors and are push

38、ing for incremental income from IIoT and improved operational efficiency. Other industrial players such as Legrand, Atlas and Wartsila have also developed IIoT offerings, but they lag that of elevator OEMs, in our view. Tech partnerTech partner KONEKONE24/7 Connected Services2017150,000 elevators an

39、d escalatorsIBM Watson SchindlerSchindlerSchindler Ahead2016n/aGE Predix, Huawei OtisOtisOtis One2018300,000 elevators and escalatorsAT August 2015 (launched cloud service) $1bn+ Predix-powered revenue in 2017; $12bn digital revenue by 2020 n/a35,000+ developersn/aApple, IBM Watson, Microsoft Azure

40、HoneywellHoneywellSentience12/16; Honeywell Forge expected Q219 $2.6B of Software Revenue (embedded and standalone) HON-specific2,000+ internal developersn/a RockwellRockwellFactoryTalk InnovationSuite 2016 Connected Enterprise $300mn in 2018 in Information Solutions and Connected Services n/an/aPTC

41、, Microsoft, Cisco SchneiderSchneiderEcoStruxure2008; November 2016 (launched enhanced version) Software revenue 650m in 2017 (450m before AVEVA acquistition) 10+9,000 system integrators58Microsoft Azure, Intel SiemensSiemensMindSphereBefore 2011 (originated from Digital Factory); March 2016 (launch

42、ed open Small relative to other digital revenues (Digital revenues 5.2bn, of which 4bn software and 1.2bn digital services) 20+900 software developers17IBM Watson, Atos, Microsoft Azure, SAP, Accenture Tech partnersTech partners # # of of CompanyCompanyApplicationsApplicationsLaunch dateLaunch dateR

43、evenueRevenue IoT platformsIoT platforms Industry 4.0 Industrial Internet of Things (vii) Source: IoT Analytics Slide 27 ComponentsMicrosoftIBMGoogleAmazonptcIntelGESAP Visualization Business System Integration Development Environment Storage/Database Device Management Event Processing AVEVA provide

44、s engineering, design and information management software 2018SiemensAimsunSimulates future traffic flows in the planning phase of construction projects 2017SchneiderIGE-XAOElectrical CAD and PLM software 2017SiemensTASSSimulation software and engineering services at autonomous driving, integrated s

45、afety, advanced driver assistance systems, and tyre modeling 2016SiemensMentor GraphicsTechnology leader in electronic design automation (EDA), provbiding software and hardware solutions for electronics industry 2016SiemensCD-AdapcoAuthoring and distribution of applications for CAE and CFD solutions

46、 within fluid flow, heat transfer and stress 2015SchneiderLimeWareMonitoring software for process companies 2015AVEVASchneider (attempted)A reverse takeover; engineering design and information management software solutions (Attempted twice) 2014ABBSpirit ITLiquid flow management software 2014Schneid

47、erInStep SoftwareData analysis and monitoring 2013SiemensPreactor GroupManufacturing operations management software 2013SiemensLMSProduct life-cycle management software 2013SchneiderInvensysProcess control and software 2012SchneiderSolveITSupply chain software 2012SiemensKineo CAMComputer-aided desi

48、gn software 2011HoneywellMatrikonMining system integration 2011RockwellHipromPlant integration software 2011SiemensActiveManufacturing execution system software 2011MitsubishiICONICSSCADA software 2011SiemensVistagyComputer-aided design software 2010InvensysSkeltaBusiness process management software

49、 in financial services, healthcare, life sciences, energy, manufacturing, infrastructure 2010ABBVentyxSoftware solutions within asset-, risk- and mobile workforce management, and energy ops for utility, communications and energy 2008SAP VisipriseAuto and electronics 2007SiemensUGSProduct life-cycle management soft